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BofA Securities Global Industrials Conference 2024

Mar 19, 2024

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Good afternoon. My name is Andrew Obin, and I'm BofA's multi-industry analyst. What are we having next? We're having management from Fortive, and we have the company's Senior Vice President and CFO, Chuck McLaughlin, and Elena Rosman, who is Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you so much for being here. You guys have been an anchor at this conference for many, many, many, many years. So thank you for being here again. I believe you, Elena, you're gonna have some remarks, and then we're gonna go to Q&A.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

Perfect.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Thanks so much.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

Thank you, Andrew. I think as you said, it's always a pleasure to be here. I think we're really excited about 2024 relative to the strategy that has really been playing out over the last couple of years for Fortive, which has been about building a higher, more durable growth company. You'll see the forward-looking statement. You know, I think you all know, the comments I'll make today are as of today, and we will update you in our next webcast. So really, when you think about what Fortive is, I think this has been a conversation that we've had several times today.

You know, we talk about the growth strategy having played out across our three segments, demonstrating, I think, the durability of the portfolio, the strength of our execution, which is really allowing us to, to, to deliver, on differentiated core growth, on exceptional margin expansion, earnings, and free cash flow growth, again, in 2024. When we talk about what Fortive is, you know, we really talk about Fortive being a $6 billion company that's playing in a $60 billion, addressable market. We're leveraging our expertise, our domain knowledge in hardware, our niche software positions, and data analytics, really to help our customers harness the power of emerging technologies, streamline crucial workflows, and help to embrace the energy transition.

Today, when you look at that, these five growth platforms really aligned across our three segments, you see in 2024, our IOS segment, which comprises the three, is really seeing positive global trends, on a POS basis, and really benefiting from consistent, strong, high single-digit software growth. The PT segment, which for 2024 we've guided will be our lower core growth segment, but that's really on the backs of very strong growth over the last couple of years, both at Tektronix and at Sensing Technologies, as the power and the energy demand for those within those segments is really helping to offset some normalizing industrial and market demand over the last five or six quarters. In healthcare, we're seeing the benefits of a return to very strong consumables growth. Consumables represent about half of our healthcare segment and another $200 million of software within healthcare.

So overall, very durable, about 70% recurring revenue in our healthcare business, really driven from the benefits of productivity and higher quality, you know, and the work that we do to drive higher quality patient outcomes in hospitals and ASCs at lower cost to serve. So the general theme in terms of Fortive, we've, again, had a lot of conversation about this, is about how we, focus the company around these five growth platforms, really improving the overall durability. So what you see in the chart represented here is about half of the company really comprised of software, recurring revenue, and healthcare, and the other half of the company in what we call our hardware products, our non-recurring products businesses.

I think the real standout takeaway here is about half of the hardware products business is really Fluke, which has continued to see growth in orders and in revenue, despite the, what, 17 months of PMIs below 50. The other, you know, you think about about a third of this part of the business is fairly favorably aligned to the secular trends that you see here on the chart. I'd be remiss if we were talking about Fortive without talking about, what's underpinning our ability to sustain differentiated financial performance over the last five years, and that's the Fortive Business System. It remains sort of the center of everything that we do. It's a key driver to, you know, our multi-year success.

It's ingrained in our culture and how we work, and it fuels breakthrough innovations, relentlessly helping to drive continuous improvement as we really look to improve every aspect of the business quarter after quarter, year after year. Big topic of conversation, I know, also today has been about capital deployment. So for those of you that are a little less familiar with Fortive, we operate what we would refer to as a pretty asset-light and efficient operating structure, which helps us deliver industry-leading free cash flow. That free cash flow, as a percentage of revenue, has gone from 14% a number of years ago to now 21%. We reinvest our free cash flow. We look to reinvest our free cash flow. So last year, we generated $1.2 billion. We look to reinvest that in our businesses, obviously both organically and inorganically.

Most recently, we just completed five acquisitions in the last five months. So four of those were tuck-in, bolt-on acquisitions, two, you know, two hardware, two software and data acquisitions. And then we also just completed the acquisition of EA Elektro-Automatik, which is enhancing our position in the power segment and test and measurement, integrated into, into Tektronix. And there you see, you know, EA is really serving a broad array of multi-industry and markets that are, benefiting, from investments in higher power, technology. So the need for high power applications in data centers, in energy storage, in addition to, obviously, the tremendous growth that they've seen in the development of EVs, e-mobility, and the grid. So in summary, we can open it up for questions.

You know, we really believe in our ability to deliver value as a function of the power of our flywheel, which is the Fortive formula for value creation. It really, if you look at the multi-year financial performance, right, we've been true to mid-single-digit core growth through cycle. That enables us to improve our operating margins by at least 75 basis points per year, which is about a 40% incremental. And then with that, right, the ability to drive free cash flow. And we've seen an average compounded growth rate on free cash flow in the high teens over the last five years. And so when you play that forward and you think about what's possible for Fortive over the next five years, we remain committed to our 2025 targets and 2028, which we introduced at our 2023 Investor Day.

Achievement of these targets, I think, again, underscores not only what we've been able to achieve over the last five years, but the continuation of the accretive benefits of the portfolio transformation that we've really undertaken over the last eight. So with that, we can take questions, Andrew.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Excellent.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Well, thank you. Thank you so much for being here. So, you know, maybe, look, I mean, I think various companies sort of have been saying various stuff about macro. Maybe a good place to start. What are you guys? You know, you do touch a lot of markets around the world. Maybe just broad statement. What are you guys seeing out there?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Well, I think that what, at this point, basically what we saw coming into the last year and what we talked about at the guide, I think there's, you want to get to the other side of Chinese New Year to really see how the China market plays out. But really, you got to get through this quarter to make a call there. But I think that what we did, what we have expected there is that we would see year-on-year slowing, but more in the mid-single-digit area for us going forward. Keep in mind, you know, we've had some, you know, when you look at the double-digit, the last two years, you're talking about double-digit, strong double-digit growth there. So coming off some really strong comps for us. When you click down a level, maybe in China, it's not the same story across the board.

Our health business is actually growing. We've still got a good positive point of sale in Fluke. And then you got PT and Sensing that's been moderating, is digesting some really big, you know, two-year stack kind of growth rates. So not really different than what we expected at this point. I think the U.S. remains, we expected it to be the strongest in the best position in markets with Europe, somewhere in between.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Gotcha. So maybe we can just chat about your 2024 framework. I think the 2024 guidance includes 100 basis points of margin expansion. And I think you highlighted medium-term model more like 75 basis points. So what's driving above-average performance this year?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Well, in any year that we would have mid-single-digit growth, we'd expect 75 basis points. But last year, we did some productivity restructuring. And so I think that's probably the easiest point. What to point to is saying on mid-single why we'd end up with 100 basis points this year.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

You're seeing, I'll just add to that, a little bit stronger, right, conversion rates or incremental margins in healthcare. So we're targeting about 125 basis points of margin expansion in healthcare this year. And some of that is obviously the benefit of a lot of the self-help initiatives that have been underway, certainly also the benefit of stronger growth.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Gotcha. Thank you. And, you know, just sort of talking about the top-line outlook, you know, you saw 2%-4% organic revenue guidance for 2024. What's the biggest swing factor between two and four? Is it just Tech waters in the second half? Is that as simple or anything more nuanced?

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

It's still early in the year, Andrew. So that might be the biggest swing factor, but.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Yeah, I think, you know, obviously, you know, we have a step up in core growth first half to second half. Maybe not so much if you looked at the seasonality of how much revenue we're expecting, top-line revenue in the first half versus the second half. We think that's actually pretty normal. But I think, as Elena said, a lot of room to go in the year yet. Let's see how it plays out.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Just, you know, just thinking about sort of accelerating this 2%-4% to sort of medium-term target, is it just sort of exiting the year at or above where the medium-term target is? Is it as simple as that?

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

That's right.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Yeah, I think that's a good way to think about it. A more complex way would be to think about healthcare is really going to be mid-single digit going forward. We would expect that IOS is going to continue along those lines. And so it's really about, you know, first half of PT we thought is going to be, you know, seeing that recovery into the second half is probably the biggest swing factor. But the exit rate we feel pretty confident of.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Gotcha. And.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

I just showed it on the chart, too. I showed it on the chart again today.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

So $4.15 adjusted EPS with 2025. So how much implied assumption from future M&A is there between the 2024 and 2025 targets?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Well, I think that the benefit that that $0.25 of accretion really shows up, I think, with the EA, you know, that's already there. I mean, that's going to deliver a $0.25 accretion there. I think that we intend to take our cash flow and deploy it. And what will happen is that's really about 2026 and 2027 going forward.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Gotcha. And just sort of maybe, you know, can we just talk about price and just, you know, what has been your experience so far, you know, 2024? And how do you see inflationary pressures going into, you know, 2024, 2025? I think a couple of companies have sort of noted that they are seeing labor inflation. I think we recently had a meeting with a company that sort of highlighted they're seeing labor inflation in excess of material inflation, which is somewhat unprecedented. You know, I think there was another company earlier today sort of talking about similar phenomena. What has been your experience? And how do you see, you know, just pricing inflation, you know, just going forward versus pre-COVID?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

We see inflation moderating. You know, it's definitely lower in 2024 than it was in 2023. Therefore, we expect price this year to be between 2%-3%. Probably two-thirds of that's just carryover from what's already been put, you know, the prices that have happened. And what we'll do is we move through the year. We'll watch some of those factors that you're talking about. And, you know, that'll be the difference whether we end up at 3, you know, closer to 3% or 2%. But speaking specifically on the labor inflation, you know, we're light assembly and test, so that's not the biggest number. And so we wouldn't expect that be the inflationary factor that would drive us to do something different.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

You know, another thing we're sort of finding is that, yes, there are industries, there are absolute industries where supply chain is not constrained. But, you know, broadly speaking, we do see labor constraint. We do see supply chain constraints. You know, how are you adopting? What's your view on the evolution of the supply chain over the next couple of years and what steps are you guys taking to sort of get there?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Are you thinking about supply chain being constrained? We think it's improving, you know, from last year to this year. But not pre-COVID better, but certainly every year there's things that are getting better. And that has to do with us, the general environment getting better, you know, lead times coming in a little bit, actually quite a bit. But also, you know, some of the things where we've maybe ran into some constraints, we're getting a second vendor, you know, qualified. We're doing more local manufacturing trends in that direction so that de-risk your supply chain. Those have all been going on for a while. So those things are all making for a better 2024 than 2023.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

When you sort of qualifying second vendor, right, is it usually the part is identical and you just can just drop it in? Because you talked a lot about redesign, I think, during COVID, right? Has that made, right, because I know obviously job number one is sort of service the customer. So what's the experience now that you've redesigned it? Has that increased the complexity of the supply chain? Are you thinking of maybe redesigning stuff back? What's the experience? Or is it just drop, you drop and it's identical and you know that it's a different component, but the customer doesn't really see any of it?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

There's all of those scenarios come into place. You know, sometimes there's components that, you know, are just the same and you can qualify a different vendor and prove that out. But as you noted, we did some places where we needed to redesign and move on to more current technology where there's greater supply. And so it's not exactly the same part in that case. And then others are just, you know, giving the actual current suppliers some time to increase their capacity and reduce the, you know, the things around logistics that were coming together. So all of those things are coming together to make things better.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Excellent. Let's talk about EA. You know, you closed on the acquisition in January, pretty clear cross-selling path, right? Tech salespeople can sell EA products. How quickly can you train the salesforce and start getting pull-through on orders?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Well, we closed it just at the earliest possible time, which was, you know, January 3rd. So that's always a very good sign. We have, in the last two months, we have trained a lot of the tech salesforce on the product. The selling cycle, though, is it's not a three-week selling cycle. So they're going to go out and then be engaging with customers. But they're, I don't know that all of them might, I'll say probably at least 80% of them have been trained on the product. And then, you know, we'll keep working on that training and seeing what's effective and how that, but that training has already happened and they're going to market now. But, you know, these kind of products will probably have a six- to nine-month, you know, selling cycle.

It's not, you know, it's not a Q1 or Q2 type of move the needle. But they're super excited about this.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Excellent. And what portion of EA's revenue was tied to software?

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

From an external, you know, there's software embedded, obviously, in the product, very similar to Tektronix. But there's no independent monetization of software in EA today. There's very much a path to build that, just like we're seeing that being built currently in Tektronix on the software side, being able to sell, monetize software independent of hardware, but also to build a service, you know, to build on the service network. So roughly 20% of Tektronix is software and services. So think about it that being recurring. And immediately day one, right, we're starting to implement, you know, a service network for EA as well. So that will build, obviously, over time.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

How is EA different right now? Like, what's different about EA's strategy right now beyond that?

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

About their strategy or about the software?

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

The software strategy. Yeah. Just, you know, does it differ?

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

I think customers are not currently, you know, they're currently buying hardware. They're not independently, you know, they're not buying software independent of the hardware.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Oh, okay. Gotcha. Gotcha. Okay. Okay. That makes sense. And, you know, EA, I think, is the first acquisition to be at around 4x Tech since Fortive public. So, you know, what does it mean? Is it scarcity of available assets, high transaction multiples? You guys being excited about tech, you know, what's happening?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

You mean why now and why haven't we done it before?

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Right. That's right.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

I think it's just the way M&A works out. We've been close on a number of things. So it's, and then all three of our segments, we think there's a lot of really good opportunities. But, you know, when you get into what deal closes and where it lines up, you know, it's not that we haven't tried or been really close here, but we're always going to remain financially disciplined. So that means you end up turning and walking away from a number of deals. And then that can look like we're choosing to not go down a path. But that's not really the case. We've been trying to do deals in all of our segments. And I think, you know, now, you know, we were excited to do this one. But, you know, we think Power's got a lot of runway here.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Excellent.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

I was just going to say, I think the other aspect of it, right, we identified the Power market, for example, at Investor Day, as a multi-billion dollar part of the product realization, you know, workflow, growth platform that's growing, you know, high single digit. So a lot of the innovation and product work that's happened inside of Tektronix has really been focused around how to better serve, you know, all of the Power applications, which is, you know, multi-industry in terms of the breadth. And in that process, right, EA has obviously become available. At the same time, it obviously complemented the strategy within Tektronix.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Gotcha. Thank you. So maybe just shifting to Tektronix. You know, I think messaging has been clear. You expect tech to have book-to-bill around 1 in second quarter.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

By the end of the second quarter.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Right. Right. Okay. Thank you. So, but what does it mean? So by the end of the second quarter, so what does it mean for revenue growth in second half?

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

Positive revenue growth in the second half?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Yeah.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

Our expectation, right, is that for PT and obviously Tektronix, we expect revenues to be down in the first half and then to grow in the second half.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Excellent. And, you know, China is 10% of the total revenue, but, you know, and I think you alluded, I think tech would have a higher mix. You know, just maybe talk specifically more about tech and China. Like, what are we seeing? What are we expecting?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Well, I think that it, like 40% overall, it's running into some really tough comps. And so, and when you look at the two-year stack, we're still in a really good position for the business that we're doing in China, but Tech's probably down, you know, down a little bit more than 40% overall because you got, like, healthcare is actually up. And so, and Fluke has really been resilient there. So, but we're still in a really good place here in terms of when you think about, you know, the amount of revenue have we now, or the bookings that we're getting now are less than last year. And, but, you know, when you go back three years ago, it's more. So, I mean, it's this digesting, I think Elena used that out. I really like that thinking about the big, strong growth that we had in those products.

It's going to have a year of digestion. But it's not, there's not been an inflection change from how we've saw that, really even, you know, 6-9 months ago.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

To put that interest in financial terms, in the fourth quarter, China revenues for Fortive were down high single digit. On a two-year stack basis, even with that down high single digit, they were still up mid-teens on a two-year stack. Just again, to put in perspective how much, you know, outgrowth relative to market we'd had in China.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Right. That's excellent. Thank you. You know, just if you think about just sort of zooming out a little bit, if you think about, you know, tech's history, right, they started on the West Coast and as the U.S. electronics industry sort of moved away, so did tech. You know, there's a lot of talk about reshoring, right? It's a big focus. So how does this impact tech's footprint strategy? How do you see sort of tech playing into this perhaps, you know, newly growing ecosystem in the U.S.? Does it matter just to expand? Because it's just very ironic, right? It was in Oregon. It sort of moved across the ocean. You know, what's going to happen to tech in the next three to five years?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Well, wow, you're going back a long time, but I was there for a while at that time. So that's the home familiar ground. I'd actually see that tech expanded. So it wasn't really shifting. It didn't actually go down as much domestically, but you're right. It expanded into those regions. And I think that it's now, it's got a worldwide, it has for a long time a worldwide footprint. So as the electrification moves all around the world where it's produced, onshoring, it's really important to just, like, let's step back a little bit further and just say, well, there's more of these growth drivers around electrification for the world and we cover the world. So not as worried about it being up and down as much as the worldwide growing.

I'm not believing that necessarily that means onshoring is, you know, something's really going to take a dive down. I'm just saying, look at the big picture and there's a lot more, you know, factors around some of these growth drivers around data centers, for example, and that, and power just as Elena was talking about, wherever that's going to go, we're going to be there and that's going to be a benefit for us.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

You think about, though, the, you know, electronics, you know, industries that tech historically served were, you know, they were about the PC, PC and smartphone. And now you've had the proliferation of batteries and chips and, you know, the connected everything, the electrification of everything is really driving a more ubiquitous, more diversified, you know, kind of, you know, set of growth factors that Chuck alluded to. And so I think that's regardless of region, I think we're in region to serve the region that we're in, which, you know, has certainly been beneficial from a, you know, from a tariffs and, you know, other perspective. But when you think about even the exposure that we had, you know, if you go back to 2018, 2019, right, we stopped selling to Huawei and a large number of other companies at that time.

So a lot of that, you know, if you think of some of the other actions that we've taken to diversify Tektronix away from any one particular, you know, industry, I think has also been complemented by the fact that the proliferation of these things is also giving growth in a lot of other industries.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

So is it fair to say that you are agnostic and wherever the growth will come, you have the necessary footprint to support it?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Yes. I think that, and we will. Now that could mean some a little bit of tweaking and rebalancing, but we know how to do that. And we take that on. It's really the what I was saying about the total is growing and we'll be able to address it wherever in the world it is.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Excellent. So maybe shifting to ASP. You guys have talked in the past of this advanced sterilization, used to be known as, was that ever known as advanced sterilization? I guess it was.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

ASP?

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Yeah.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

Advanced Sterilization Products.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Yeah. Was it ever known? I guess it was back when. Yeah. So Fortive has talked in the past about how a new product introduction takes longer in life sciences and healthcare. Where are you in terms of product vitality at ASP? And outside of the U.S., what are you seeing in terms of growth rates? And are you actually making investments in these regions?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

I'll take a lot of questions.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Let's start with product vitality for ASP.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Well, I think that in the healthcare market, it's true that you don't, it is harder to change products, which means they're incredibly sticky. But at the same time, that doesn't mean there's not upgrades and things. But the product that we have is in low-temperature sterilization. It's got, which we think is one of the fastest growing sectors and it's got the top, you know, top position in terms of market share. So we like that. I think there's going to be some introductions that you'll see this year that'll start to make a dent in biological indicators. A really nice product that in an area that we really don't have big market share, but so it's going to be accretive to our growth so that we talk, that we give some forward view to. So I think that's going to happen.

I think as we move forward, you know, maybe to the end of this year and then coming into next year, you're going to start to see some products that will come to market that'll start that innovation because it does take a little bit longer or it's longer there. But that also means the products stay around for a long time as well. So it's not that, so vitality, if you're going to compare it to the technology industry, wouldn't make any sense there. But it's really what's happened in the marketplace. These products are incredibly effective and they have incredibly long lives, which is one of the reasons we like them. But we've got some new things coming to the market.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

Just from a, maybe from a global perspective, I think ASP is one of our most global, you know, companies. We're seeing really good growth in every region. Maybe with a little bit of an exception, we're seeing slower growth in China. We did have, you know, the effects of COVID still impacting China last year, for example, certainly in the first quarter of last year. But now you've, you know, you kind of have a little bit still of the, you know, the lower procedure rates, you know, happening. We expect that to get better in the second half relative to China specifically. But I think we're seeing really good growth in North America, in Europe, in other parts of Asia, and certainly in Latin America as well.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Gotcha. Where does ASP fit in, you know, within your framework of that single digit organic revenue growth, right? I mean, clearly it's a portfolio. There are things that will grow faster than average, things that grow slower than average. What about ASP?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Well, the premise when we acquired ASP is that it would accelerate to mid-single digit. It had been not growing at all for a variety of reasons. But, and we started to see that acceleration. And then, of course, a pandemic happened and it didn't, it didn't get to mid-single. But now we believe over the last, even in 2023, if you look through the dealer transition, it's been growing. The end use is mid-single digit. When you include that in North America, if you look outside the U.S., excluding the U.S., it's been growing mid-single digit. And that's what we would expect it to grow and have guided to it growing this year.

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

I think the long-term, I think the way to think about growth in that business is you've got growth in the installed base. That's probably low single digit. We actually, a lot of that growth through the pandemic, we did still grow at a roughly 3% CAGR through the pandemic and in the couple of years that followed came from, you know, installed base growth outside of the U.S. So, you know, that was a big part of the thesis going into the acquisition. And then you've got procedures that are growing, call it, you know, low single digit. So that adds, if you will, on top. And then on top of that, innovation. So I think, you know, the mega trends are still, you know, very strong in terms of, you know, aging populations.

I think the power of what ASP does and I think the benefits even in North America to go direct, to have a tighter alignment, if you will, to overall utilization of our equipment, to drive better utilization of our equipment and efficacy of the processes to ensure sterilization is happening. These are all very positive and I think support a mid-single digit, you know, core growth going forward for a long time.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

We've also been able to get price. Is one thing that we, you know, had to get some contracts changed. It takes a bit of time, but now we're getting to the point where that consistent price, not super high, but, you know, consistent, that's going to help us as well.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

And you've alluded to it as one of the growth drivers, but where are we on sort of this whole elective surgery recovery in North America, right? Because I think at some point there was an expectation that there's going to be like this catch-up and that, you know, it just, it doesn't seem to be. Does this mean that ultimately people are just going to end up skipping some? Will there ever be catch-up, right? Because initially people had strong views about it and then it's just, as time goes by, it seems there's less conviction on that.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Well, I don't think our point of view has changed.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

No, no, no. You guys were spot on.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Said there's like.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

You guys, I'll give you that. You nailed that one.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

So we think that as we move forward, mid-single digit is the right way to go. I think labor shortages are getting better, but they're still there. But for a lot of reasons why we said there's not a big, you know, it's hard to imagine how operating rooms will run at 150% or even 120% of capacity. So that was our belief and it's played out that way. And very specifically, we think elective procedures are back to normal rates. We wouldn't, they're not constrained. And we're just going to be talking about how we grow from here.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Excellent. Thank you. So maybe Fluke, for those of you, it's your handheld tester measurement tools business. You launched a solar tester and made a tuck-in acquisition in solar last year. So how much have these faster growing niche areas helped overall Fluke? Because, you know, Fluke has really had steady revenue growth despite weaker PMIs and softness in several end markets.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Well, I think you're answering the question right there of like normally when, as you have a recession, Fluke would show more of a downturn or even go negative, but it'd also be a quick recovery. And so what we've seen so far is they just haven't. They've been incredibly resilient and it's because of the, you know, those end markets that you talked about pointing at better growth drivers that have given this, filled in that gap. That doesn't mean they haven't slowed down from, you know, high single digit growth that they were. That's really not where we expect them to be overall, but they've stayed into the positive territory and that's how it looks like they'll be for a while, through, right through whatever, however long this rolling, called a rolling recession is going to take.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

So, you know, we did this analysis a couple of, I guess a couple of months ago, just looking at what drives multiples and it seems like gross margin expansion is a big KPI and there are like a couple of outliers there with high gross margins and maybe multiple has not expanded as much. And, you know, clearly people are not giving enough credit for what you've done in terms of margin and software. So maybe we can just sort of talk about software. So you said what questions, you built out a full software offering for firms self-performing, sort of Gordian, Accruent, or using third-party ServiceChannel. So what's baked in there for 2024 guidance?

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

In terms of growth, it's high single digit. They've grown the last couple of years, low double digit. So we see a little bit of, you know, lapping primarily Gordian, going from a 20% growth to somewhere in the mid-teens, which I think is a very, still very attractive long-term growth rate for Gordian. But we'll see that reaccelerate to low double digits going forward at FAL, Facility and Asset Lifecycle. And that's a collection that's so in 2024, that'll be $750 million of revenue. That's growing high single digit. It's a Rule of 40 plus business. I think even you could probably argue all of FAL, or sorry, all of IOS is probably a Rule of 40, which would include Fluke and environmental health and safety. So, you know, I think the, we feel confident in that long-term trajectory.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

It should reaccelerate to low single digits, low double digits?

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

It should reaccelerate to low double digits. We think it's growing, you know, faster than the market. I think we've been very intentional and selective about where we play within that broader, you know, call it, you know, market or workflow such that, you know, I think Olumide had a great statistic last week. He talked about something like 10 trillion sq ft of real estate, you know, space that they look after and have data on. So I think there are a lot of really great long-term positive drivers.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Are you seeing improvement in the funnel to drive this acceleration?

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

I'm sorry?

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Are you seeing improvement in the funnel to drive this acceleration?

Elena Rosman
VP of Investor Relations, Aptiv

So if you think about the business within FAL, bookings are growing in that, you know, call it almost teens type growth rate. So very much an indicative of sustaining that long-term.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Yep. That's where I was getting to.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Keep in mind those acquisitions, especially the software acquisitions, you know, growing, you know, at least two times the rest of the portfolio is with. They obviously have really good gross margins. But I want to, you know, give our due to our hardware products. They also have really good gross margins. And so it's not just the software. We get margin expansion out of all of our business and gross, and it's hard. Gross margin is something that we should look at.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Right, right, right. So, you know, Intelex, it's your environmental health and safety software offering. So how does the Intelex team see these SEC regulations around greenhouse gas emissions reporting? I recently had a slide. They should feel good about it. But is this a meaningful tailwind for the business?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

It's not a headwind. So no, I think that, you know, it's things that when they look at things like that, they're seeing the market, how it's going to evolve, and they just see this as evidence that the market's continuing to go the direction that they expect. So I don't know that it's different. I mean, they thought the market was going to be pretty darn good moving forward and I think that's what they're seeing. So, but.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Maybe last question for me on capital return. Yeah. You did about $700 million in share buybacks in 2022, 2023. How are you thinking about capital return more broadly? Are you considering moving from an opportunistic to a more systematic, you know, maybe offsetting share grant dilution, repurchase strategy?

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

I think we're going to stay right where we're at now, which is being opportunistic. We think that we don't want to box ourselves in, you know, for when you're doing capital deployment, we think that it's a tool in the toolkit. It's not the main tool is M&A and that remains the priority. What we did with the dividend was just trying to acknowledge that from here going forward, since we're through the transformation, that you should expect that to grow along with, you know, if we're growing our earnings per share and cash flow at mid-teens, you should probably expect that once a year or so, we'll look at that and probably grow it the same.

Andrew Obin
Multi-Industry Analyst, BofA

Excellent. I think with that, we started a little bit late. So we're going to finish on time. Elena, thank you so much for being in London. Always a pleasure.

Charles McLaughlin
SVP and CFO, Fortive

Thank you. Thanks for having us.

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