Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (GBCI)
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May 1, 2026, 3:04 PM EDT - Market open
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Apr 21, 2023

Operator

Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Glacier Bancorp First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone, and you will then hear an automated message advising you your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Randy Chesler, President and CEO of Glacier Bancorp. You may begin.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

All right. Thank you, Catherine, and good morning and thank you all for joining us today. With me here in Kalispell this morning is Ron Copher, our Chief Financial Officer, Don Chery, Chief Administrative Officer, Angela Dose, our Chief Accounting Officer, Byron Pollan, our Treasurer, and Tom Dolan, our Chief Credit Administrator. I'd like to point out that the discussion today is subject to the same forward-looking considerations found on page 10 of our press release, and we encourage you to review this section. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month created a lot of concerns about the banking industry. Overall, I'm pleased to report the Glacier team did an excellent job managing through the rapidly changing environment over the past few weeks, and we believe our unique business model weathered the storm very well.

Our local relationship-based approach to community banking proved to be extremely stable. Our 17 separate and distinct bank brands operating in 222 locations across eight Western states provided further insulation from the events unfolding outside our markets. Deposits grew during March, which was when the banking crisis started and was the period when the system was under the most stress. While many customers were concerned about safety of their deposits, talking about it with their banker, who they know and trust, resolved most of their concerns. Our deposit base has a high degree of balance and granularity. We have over 600,000 retail accounts with an average balance of $14,000. Over 150,000 commercial accounts with an average balance of $63,000.

These relationships are spread out over eight states, 75% in rural markets and 25% in metro markets, with about 60% of the accounts with us over five years. Our liquidity is strong, with close to $15 billion available through multiple channels. In this quarter, we tested most of these channels, confirmed their operational status and ability to provide us with ready liquidity. Out of an abundance of caution, we used our liquidity to increase available cash to over $1 billion. We had more than enough cash on hand if needed. We don't have a significant amount of uninsured deposits, only about 32% totaling $6.4 billion. If you remove public funds that are collateralized with high-quality investments from this number, it's closer to 26%.

We have more than enough ready liquidity to cover in excess of 100% of these balances and still exceed regulatory minimum capital requirements. Our investment portfolio is structured to be shorter in duration and to generate cash flow. As a result, this portfolio produces enough cash to finance our expected lending growth. In the event we wanted to sell these investments to reduce borrowing, the current after-tax unrealized loss on both the held for sale and held for investment portfolios totaling $685 million could be absorbed by a capital which would still exceed regulatory minimums. Our capital levels are strong and growing, with CET1 increasing 13 basis points from the prior quarter to 12.47%. We believe this level of capital is more than 100 basis points greater than the average of the 21 peer banks listed in our proxy.

Credit continues to perform at record levels. We see little signs of deteriorating credit. There's been some concern about commercial real estate exposure in the industry, primarily in larger cities. Our commercial real estate portfolio is primarily comprised of small properties outside of the city centers with an average loan amount of $600,000. While there are a number of headwinds impacting the banking industry, we are optimistic about the current position of the company. The markets in which we have a presence are among the strongest economies in the U.S. We have ample liquidity and a balance sheet that now has a bias towards being more liability sensitive, a very high-quality loan portfolio, a proven banking model, and M&A expertise that is primed to take advantage of this current environment.

Some of the specific highlights for the first quarter include stockholders' equity of $2.9 billion increased $83.6 million or 3% during the current quarter. Tangible book value per common share of $17.616 at the current quarter and increased $0.76 per share or 5% from the prior quarter, or $0.07 a share, excuse me. Interest income of $232 million in the current quarter increased $6.8 million or 3% over the prior quarter, and increased $41.4 million or 22% over the prior year first quarter. Total deposits and retail repurchase agreements of $21.3 billion at the end of the current quarter increased $289 million or 1% during March, and decreased just $213 million or 1% during the current quarter.

The loan portfolio of $15.5 billion increased $272 million or 7% annualized during the current quarter. The loan yield for the current quarter of 5.02% increased 19 basis points compared to the prior quarter and increased 43 basis points from the prior year first quarter. New production yields for the quarter were 6.96%, up 62 basis points from the last quarter. Available liquidity of $15.1 billion, including cash, borrowing capacity from the Federal Home Loan Bank and Federal Reserve facilities, unpledged securities, broker deposits, and other sources. Credit quality continued to improve to record levels.

Non-performing assets as a percentage of subsidiary assets was 12%, or 0.12 basis points in the current quarter and compared to 0.24% in the prior year first quarter. Net charge-offs as a percentage of loans was 1 basis point. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.33 per share in the quarter. The company has declared 152 consecutive quarterly dividends and increased the dividend 49 times. Core deposit funding of $20 billion, almost 85% of total funding liabilities, ended the quarter at a cost of 23 basis points versus 8 basis points in the prior quarter. Non-interest-bearing deposits were 35% of core deposits at quarter end, compared to 37% in the prior quarter.

We expect deposits to perform more consistent with historic growth trends going forward, with some growth in the second quarter and second and third quarters of the year, followed by some outflow in the fourth quarter. Competition for deposits and the cost to attract and retain them will continue to increase. We still anticipate borrowings to slowly decline throughout the year and plan to fund our growth for 2023 primarily by using the quarterly cash flow from our investment portfolio. We remain confident in the dynamic Western markets we serve and our unique business model to continue to deliver strong results. The Glacier team did another excellent job in the first quarter. Despite the market turmoil, they once again kept their focus on shareholders, customers, and communities. That ends my formal remarks.

I'd now like Catherine to open the line for any questions that our analysts may have.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from David Feaster with Raymond James. Your line is open.

David Feaster
Analyst, Raymond James

Hey, good morning, everybody.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Morning, David.

David Feaster
Analyst, Raymond James

Maybe if we could just start talking about on the deposit flow side, some of the drivers, you know, this quarter. I know last quarter, you know, flows were primarily isolated to, you know, some of the top 100 clients or so. Was that the case again this quarter? Are the outflows, you know, how much could you maybe just talk about too, how much is just from normal seasonality versus clients paying down higher cost debt or capital purchases or, you know, some of the retail borrowers looking for higher rates versus actual fallout from the recent bank failures?

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Sure. Yeah. Obviously, we've spent a lot of time looking at deposits and studying inflows and outflows. Byron has done a lot of analysis there. I'm gonna hand it over to Byron to kind of walk you through your responding to some of your questions. Byron, go ahead.

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

Sure, David, appreciate the question. When we look at our deposit flows, one of the things that I'll include, when we talk about our core deposit flows, I'll be including repo, our retail repo in this discussion. Those retail repo accounts are not wholesale funding. They are collateralized accounts. These are our customers. They are core relationships. When I think of, you know, core relationships relationship accounts, I'll be including our retail repo in this discussion. In the quarter, our core deposits and repo declined roughly $600 million. That was a tremendous improvement over the decline in the fourth quarter.

What I'll do is I'll break this down between the month and kind of track and give you a sense for what happened in January, February, March. More than 90% of that, $600 million outflow happened in January. This was purely rate driven. This was kind of a continuation of what we saw in the fourth quarter. We did adjust our pricing and retention strategies towards the end of January and became much more proactive in defending those balances. Once we did that, our deposit and repo balances stabilized in February, and in the month of March, our core deposits and repo balances actually grew.

That was in that was in the face of all that noise and volatility that happened in March with, you know, with all the noise from Silicon Valley Bank. Our divisions did a fantastic job of stabilizing deposits in February and actually growing deposits in a very difficult, very difficult environment. Now, you'll see the impact of that show up in our cost of deposits. They're on the rise and clearly going up. We did see some normal seasonality that's typical for us to see some outflow in the first quarter. I would say that that was kind of accelerated by some rate drivers in January. We put a stop to that in February and actually grew in the month of March.

Hopefully that addresses your question.

David Feaster
Analyst, Raymond James

Yeah. No, that's very helpful. I guess, have you seen that trend persist here early into the second quarter? Have you seen core deposit balances continue to grow? Just curious what the early read is, you know, in early into the second quarter.

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

Very typical, tax-related flows. Had a little bit of increase, first couple weeks of April and then some outflows related to tax, to tax payments. Nothing outside the ordinary from what we typically see in an April.

David Feaster
Analyst, Raymond James

I guess maybe just how do you think about the deposit trajectory from here? It sounds like maybe April's, you know, a little bit more outflows from seasonal tax issues. I mean, do you think core deposit balances are kind of at a trough, or would you expect, you know? How do you think it plays out through the course of the year? Ultimately, how do you think about the timing of, you know, some of the balance sheet and the pay downs of the borrowings?

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

Yeah, I would, trough is a good word right now. I think that's right. I think from here, we'll probably revert back to some of our normal historic flows. You know, summertime is really strong for us on the deposit front. Fall is still pretty good, and then as winter sets in, we see some outflows. I would anticipate some of those, you know, kind of seasonal factors influencing our deposit balance. If you look at a typical year for us, where we grow somewhere in the range of 3%-5%, given headwinds, I would put us at the low end of that range.

If I had to put a number on it, you know, between now and the end of the year, you know, potentially we could grow, 2% would be, you know, my estimation.

David Feaster
Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. Just, again, thinking about some of the balance sheet side, you know, obviously you built up some excess liquidity. How do you think about, you know, maintaining that liquidity and just thinking about some of the other dynamics, you know, with the cash flows from the securities book, you know, predominantly funding loan growth, probably, you know, and, you know, 2% deposit growth like we were just talking about, probably don't really see the borrowings come down in earnest really until 2024 or maybe early, you know, late in the year. Is that kind of the right way to think about it?

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

I think so. You know, as Randy mentioned, we built that cash balance out of an abundance of caution. I think things are starting to settle down. You know, you could see us release some of that cash. That would help us pay down some of this wholesale funding. You know, as you pointed out, the cash flow off of the securities portfolio, continuing to fund our loan growth. Just a little bit. You know, I could see maybe if we release some of this cash, that could put a dent in our wholesale funding, it's just chipping away from there through the rest of the year.

David Feaster
Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. The could you remind us of the securities cash flows? I think we talked about $300 million. Is that still the right pace?

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

Yeah, I think I'm still comfortable with that, with that number for quarterly for the rest of the year.

David Feaster
Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. Thanks, everybody.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Kelly Motta from KBW. Your line is open.

Kelly Motta
Managing Director, KBW

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for the question.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Morning, Kelly.

Kelly Motta
Managing Director, KBW

Okay. Sorry, my model is kind of spinning on me. You guys got some good loan growth this quarter, so it was pretty decent even with the slowdown we've been seeing. What, what's your pipeline from here, and can you talk about which areas you're seeing the best risk-adjusted returns at this stage?

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Sure. You know, that's another area we spent a lot of time looking at as well, and Tom has studied it very closely. I'm gonna ask Tom to cover your question on growth.

Tom Dolan
Chief Credit Administrator, Glacier Bancorp

Yeah, I would say, Kelly, first quarter was a little stronger than expected. You know, and I think that's reflective of the.

Strong markets that we operate in through our eight-state footprint. You know, in addition to that, the continued strength on our borrowers' balance sheets that, you know, we continue to see. I would say though that I think we expect growth to continue to slow in the coming quarters. You know, both customers and certainly our credit officers at our division banks are continuing to be cautious. I would say for the year, you know, we're probably on the low end of the mid-single digit range. Then in terms of the second part of your question that's providing us some of the growth drivers and some of the areas where we're getting some very good pricing.

you know, certainly, industrial, warehouse has been a good segment for us in the last, probably last year and a half now. That continues to show some strength. Multifamily has been good as well, even though we've seen that slow down a little bit. Certainly the agriculture portfolio provides a very healthy return, especially as a lot of the operating lines are prime-based structures.

Kelly Motta
Managing Director, KBW

Thanks. I appreciate all the color as well in the prepared remarks about the granularity of the portfolio and kind of what you're seeing. You know, credit continues to be stellar with a 120 basis point reserve and where you are. How do you feel from here? What should we be expecting in terms of credit normalization and anything we should be watching as we look to the year ahead?

Tom Dolan
Chief Credit Administrator, Glacier Bancorp

Sure. You know, barring any significant changes in the economic forecast in the model or, you know, changes in portfolio mix or asset quality, I really don't expect much change as a percent of loans. You know, we keep a close eye on it. We evaluate it every quarter. You know, we're watching the forecast closely. We really haven't seen material deterioration there yet. Certainly, you know, we've got some overlays in the model as well to reflect that. You know, as of now, I don't expect much in the way of change.

Kelly Motta
Managing Director, KBW

Got it. In your prepared remarks, you had some commentary about M&A. It seemed somewhat constructive. Can you provide additional color? Do you assess the what's going on in the banking industry and potential headwinds starting to motivate some activity? Is the environment as it stands right now still pretty slow?

Tom Dolan
Chief Credit Administrator, Glacier Bancorp

Sure. Yeah. No, you're absolutely right, Kelly. It is slow right now, and it's probably a little difficult to see, but we feel it's gonna be good for certain companies and with our experience in M&A and our strategy, we feel like it'll be a very good time for us. Couple things that will, and of course you need buyers and sellers to make that happen. You know, I think that some of these headwinds will weigh on people's decisions on how long to kind of hold their position and wait for a better time. I think that will bring folks together.

The ability of scale will be important as some of these headwinds in the industry with expense and some in, you know, a little more headwinds in those areas and cost, regulatory expense and then deposit cost will, I think play to our strengths, and present some very good opportunities for us. We're, we're open for M&A business. We are having some good conversations and, you know, we feel like that will be a very positive and a good way for us to continue income growth, you know, during a period where there's some, certainly some headwinds in the industry.

Kelly Motta
Managing Director, KBW

Thanks. Maybe last question for me on the margin. I apologize if I missed it, but at 3.08% and your commentary that you're gonna fund off securities close, should we be thinking of this as kind of the trough margin and some expansion from here? Will these funding pressures continue to kind of maybe have some additional downward pressure in the next couple quarters?

Tom Dolan
Chief Credit Administrator, Glacier Bancorp

Sure, yeah. I mean, margin obviously, that's, you know, really tied to the to the money cost and where we see that going. Byron will give you a little more in detail update that or color around the margin.

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

Sure, Kelly. As you saw, our margin in the first quarter came in at 3.08% for the quarter. The best guide I can give you on margin from here would be to look at the March. If you just isolate March within the quarter, that margin was 2.95%. I think that's gonna be close to the trough. From here, I would think stable. If you had to, you know, pin me down on a range, I would think we would end the full year somewhere in the 2.95%-3% area in terms of net interest margin.

Kelly Motta
Managing Director, KBW

Great. I appreciate all the color. I will step back.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Jeff Rulis from D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Jeff Rulis
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst., D.A. Davidson

Thanks. Good morning.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Morning, Jeff.

Jeff Rulis
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst., D.A. Davidson

I guess as a jump off point of that last comment on the margin near 3%, I wanted to understand the assumption of what occurs with the non-core funding sources. Just what is the backdrop in terms of how much you wean off of those sources over the course of the year?

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

Sure. In terms of our, you know, wholesale funding balances, we do think that we'll bring that down some over the course of the year. To put a number on it, you know, I don't have an estimate for you know, at this point, but I think it would be a modest decline in wholesale funding between now and the end of the year. The good news is, with our participation in the BTFP program, you know, a lot of that wholesale funding cost is essentially locked in for the rest of the year. Regardless of, you know, rates, if the Fed does have some additional hike left, our wholesale funding costs should remain fairly steady from this point on.

Jeff Rulis
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst., D.A. Davidson

Okay. Just to try to understand the strategy, you know, maybe just a sense for what is it that you, that you need to see not that you've got an all clear, but you've talked about operating at an abundance of caution? You see real time what your deposit balances have done, really non-reactionary to sort of the news of the day. Just trying to get a sense for what would be the hesitation to run that loan deposit ratio up, begin to kind of lean into what is a franchise strength as, you know, amongst peers, you know, you see outflows, you see ramping costs?

Just trying to get a sense for what do you need to see to go maybe quicker off of those wholesale borrowings to maybe prop up the top line a bit.

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

You know, back to loan-to-deposit ratio, clearly it's on the way up. You know, we've talked internally about, you know, comfort zone. I could see us going into the end of the high eighties in with regard to loan-to-deposit ratio. We'll just have to see what the lending opportunities look like in order for us to get there and what the funding requirements those lending opportunities present. That'll really determine our funding strategy from there.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Yeah, Jeff, I think the deposit flows will be a big driver of that. You know, there's gonna be a lot of competition for deposits. We talked about our view, in terms of, you know, seeing some return to more of the lower end of the historic range. That's gonna be the bigger determinant as well as on balance sheet liquidity in the form of cash, just how much, you know, of that. When they all clear whistleblows, that's been a moving target. You know, I think we're feeling that actually good about the second quarter. We'll see how if there's any other external events that change that.

I think that to answer your question on the, you know, where the wholesale funding balances go, it's really gonna be driven by deposit flows.

Jeff Rulis
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst., D.A. Davidson

Okay. Okay. Thanks. Just one other topic. Wanted to hop to the expense run rate. I, you know, in the, in the release, sounds like kind of pleased, given the inflation backdrop that, you know, keeping that growth managed. You get through a seasonal Q1, but just, expectations for expense management over the course of the year would be helpful.

Ron Copher
CFO, Glacier Bancorp

Yes, this is Ron. We appreciate the question. The guide we gave, you know, coming out of the fourth quarter call was $136-$138 and, you know, expecting it to be higher towards that $138. I'll give you the new guidance, but I wanna give backdrop to, you know, why it came in lower and credit to our divisions particularly. The guide will be for the remaining quarters of this year, $135 million-$137 million. Let me focus on components of the current quarter non-interest expense. Our compensation is the biggest component at 60% of it. On page 2 of the earnings release, you know, you can see that our FTE was flat.

When you look at our FTE compared to the year ago, we're down 49. What that reflects is the staffing levels of, you know, as we are doing more with less, it really reflects the, the efficiencies, operational efficiencies we're getting from our technology platform. Again, everybody realizing, you know, we can do better with less. The headcount, over that same time period, year-over-year, has come down 20. I think the divisions have a very, very good handle. Again, no edict came from, you know, from us. They're making the decisions that are right for their market. Again, compensation, being, you know, the primary driver of our non-interest expense. I just wanna comment on the regulatory assessments. You know, that's up 43%.

While it only accounts for 4% of the non-interest expense, I mean, you know, it's uniform. The FDIC has adjusted it for all banks, we're certainly caught up in that as well. Lastly, our other expenses, excluding the M&A.

It's really pretty flat, so I feel pretty good about where the guide is from $ 135 million-$ 137 million. I say that because while we were very, very good at controlling expenses, we're still seeing across the various expense categories, inflationary pressures. I'm just leaving that there.

Jeff Rulis
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst., D.A. Davidson

Okay. Thank you.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Brandon King with Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Brandon King
Treasury Sales Analyst, Truist Securities

Hey, good morning.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Morning, Brandon.

Brandon King
Treasury Sales Analyst, Truist Securities

Morning. Could you just give us your thinking and thought process around not being more aggressive as far as pricing up core deposits, instead of, you know, tapping higher cost wholesale funding? Just optically, you know, your deposit costs are much lower than peers, and I know historically that's kind of always been the case, but just wanted to get a better sense of what the thought process is there strategically.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Sure. I can give you my thoughts and then if Byron may want to add to it. I guess just to step back and, you know, some context. We went through a decade of zero to low rates, and so there was a little muscle memory that had to be developed in terms of competing for deposits. I think that's, you know, what we saw in the fourth quarter and to some extent in January, to Byron's commentary. Once we said enough, within a week, the deposits stabilized and then actually grew. I think, Brandon, it's as simple as that. You know, we had been in a mode for a decade of operating in one environment.

It shifted pretty quickly, and I think, you know, we're squarely now, out to retain and defend the deposits and, keep them with our, with our relationships.

Brandon King
Treasury Sales Analyst, Truist Securities

Okay. And would you care to share what the spot deposit rate was, at the end of the quarter?

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

I can give you the average rate for the month of March was 36 basis points.

Brandon King
Treasury Sales Analyst, Truist Securities

Okay. Final question. I know there's been kind of growing consternation about, you know, the work from home trend kind of almost ending from here and not being as prevalent. Could you just give us an update on what the in-migration trends are there in your footprint? Also just a sense of how housing has performed and if there's any notable trends there based off of, you know, the increases over the last couple of years, especially post-pandemic.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Yeah. We've, we continue to see in-migration across all our markets. It's slowed down, but it's still continuing. The return to work, I think a number of the people that have made the move decided not to return to work. You know, we see some folks staying put. We have not seen any kind of material outflow. We still have housing shortage across almost all our markets. Prices have held in, pretty stable. We don't see a lot of disruption there, despite the, you know, the bigger, kind of return to work has not really mixed, you know, materially changed those dynamics.

Brandon King
Treasury Sales Analyst, Truist Securities

Okay. Thanks. Take more questions.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Welcome.

Operator

Thank you. We have a question from Andrew Terrell from Stephens. Your line is open.

Andrew Terrell
Managing Director, Stephens

Hey, good morning.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Morning, Andrew.

Andrew Terrell
Managing Director, Stephens

Thanks for taking the questions. If I could start just on the margin as well. Byron, I appreciate all the color around the deposits and the kind of pricing strategy there. It's all really helpful. I maybe just wanted to get a sense from you on deposit beta expectations. I know in the past we've kind of talked around, I think around a 15% total deposit beta through the cycle. You know, it felt like it maybe outperformed that expectation. I was hoping to get a sense of whether you still thought 15% just given the pricing changes that were made recently.

If you still think 15% through the cycle for total deposit betas, kind of the expectation or if there's a chance you could come in above that.

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

Sure. We're still using 15% for our through the cycle beta for total deposits. We still think that's a good, that's a good estimate. It really depends on the Federal Reserve and kind of what rates, you know, what happens from here. If we see higher for longer, that is a scenario where I think clearly we'll have to push through that 15% beta to retain deposit balances. If you believe market expectations and the Fed begins to cut, you know, towards the back half of this year, that's a scenario where I think we could maintain and hold to that 15% beta number. It really depends on, you know, on what the Fed does from here.

You know, what we're using, we're still using that 15% number in our estimate.

Andrew Terrell
Managing Director, Stephens

Yep. Then maybe just following up on that point, when we look out at the forward curve, there's obviously some cuts baked in starting later this year. I think, Randy, you might have mentioned in prepared remarks around the bias of the balance sheet, being maybe a bit liability sensitive. Can we maybe put just like a finer point on that? I know there's a lot of moving parts, but as we look out into late this year, early next year, how do you think the margin responds as we start to contemplate rate cuts?

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

I think the margin will do well with rate cuts. You know, one of the things that, you know, when we talk about liability sensitive, it's just modestly liability sensitive. When we ran our models for, at year-end, you know, we were fairly neutral. We did make an adjustment to our March 31 model with the rate shocks. Again, kind of the base case, you know, 15% I think is still a good guide. But we do recognize that a lot of the lag capacity that we have had has been used up in our deposit, in our deposit base. Talking about up 100, up 200 from here, I think our deposit costs will be more sensitive to those hikes.

When we're talking about shocks, we did dial up our beta sensitivity in those shock scenarios, creating the liability sensitive, overall, result.

Andrew Terrell
Managing Director, Stephens

Yep. Okay. Makes sense. Just to clarify, the 15% total beta expectation, does that include the customer repo deposits as well?

Byron Pollan
Treasurer, Glacier Bancorp

No, that's total deposit cost and excludes the repo account. I appreciate the clarification. Thank you.

Andrew Terrell
Managing Director, Stephens

Got it. Thanks. If I could ask just two more quick modeling related questions. Do you have for the new loan production this quarter, the weighted average loan yields, or the weighted average kind of incremental loan yield, and then expectations on the tax rate moving forward?

Tom Dolan
Chief Credit Administrator, Glacier Bancorp

Yeah, Andrew, on the production rates for Q1, it was 6.96.

Ron Copher
CFO, Glacier Bancorp

Andrew, Ron here. On the, on the tax rates, I would use 18%. I know it was low this quarter, but it's expecting this to build, I would use 18%.

Andrew Terrell
Managing Director, Stephens

Okay. Very good. Thank you, guys, for taking the questions.

Tom Dolan
Chief Credit Administrator, Glacier Bancorp

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for question. Our question comes from Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Matthew Clark
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Tom Dolan
Chief Credit Administrator, Glacier Bancorp

Morning.

Matthew Clark
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Maybe just, on e-expenses and just overall efficiency, you know, given kind of the change, you know, maybe culturally or just with the new rate environments have to compete a little more on deposits. You know, when you think about that targeted efficiency ratio longer term of 54%-55%, I mean, it doesn't seem like we're gonna be in that range this year. Do you feel like, you know, that might not be realistic going forward, just given the need to kind of pay up or retain deposits, in this environment?

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

Yeah, I, Ron may have some comments. You're absolutely right the way you're looking at it right now. I think the, there are a number, and we've spoken about them. You know, we have a number of efficiency initiatives through our technology platforms that we're spending a lot of time with. I think that that's probably gonna be beneficial. We're still really dialing in, you know, that ability to get back into that 54%, 55% range, which is our goal. We do have some tools to get there. You know, that's, I think your outlook though on this year, that's really a question for next year. Ron, did you wanna add anything?

Ron Copher
CFO, Glacier Bancorp

Well, it will be sensitive to, as Byron was saying, depends on, you know, do we get the rate cuts or do we get further rate hikes, you know. That's 'cause the bigger component the more impactful component this quarter was the net interest income. While we're doing great on the non-interest expense, it's largely driven by that. Yeah, it'll be elevated this year, the efficiency ratio.

Matthew Clark
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Okay. Just shifting gears to office exposure. I know you guys are in a lot more rural markets than most, so probably a little more insulated, but still some uncertainty around how, you know, rural office, I think, does longer term. Can you just quantify your exposure there and any characteristics you'd like to highlight and what the associated reserve is on that exposure?

Tom Dolan
Chief Credit Administrator, Glacier Bancorp

Yeah. Matthew, it's Tom. Total exposures run about 9.6% of the total portfolio. As Randy mentioned, you know, that's the average is quite small. You know, about $600,000 scattered across all eight states. You know, there's immaterial exposure to downtown business districts. In terms of, you know, you mentioned kind of the long-term impact. I think that's the unknown with the, with the office book. You know, some of this larger office CRE that's located in these downtown business districts, if that goes sideways, what's the long-term cascading effect on valuations going forward? That's the question yet to be answered.

What I will say is, and I think I've mentioned it before, you know, about four years ago, we implemented an additional underwriting requirement. In addition to, you know, lesser loan to value or cost and, debt service coverage ratio, we also underwrite to debt yield. Meaning that, and for office, it varies by geography and asset class, but typically for office that minimum threshold is 10%. As cap rates came down, through this cycle, what that dictated was more cash equity coming into purchases. To your point, I think it's fairly well insulated to market disruption. You know, average LTV in that book is below 60%. You know, we keep a pretty close eye on it. We keep monitoring it.

Right now it's outperforming the rest of the CRE book. As I mentioned, some of this disruption in the city center offices thus far had a positive effect on our type of office that we have. It's been a unique dynamic over the past few quarters.

Matthew Clark
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is a follow-up from Kelly Motta from KBW. Your line is open.

Kelly Motta
Managing Director, KBW

Hi, I appreciate you letting me back in my, in the queue, but my questions are asked and answered at this point.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no other questions in the queue. I'd like to turn the call back to management for any closing remarks.

Randy Chesler
President and CEO, Glacier Bancorp

All right, Catherine, thank you very much. We wanna thank everybody again for dialing in to our call today. We hope everyone has a great Friday and a great weekend. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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