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Earnings Call: Q4 2016

Jan 20, 2017

Speaker 1

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric 4th Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. My name is Ellen, and I will be your conference coordinator today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Matt Kribbons, Vice President of Investor Communications.

Please proceed.

Speaker 2

Hello, everyone, and welcome to GE's 4th quarter 2016 earnings call. Presenting first today is our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt followed by our CFO, Jeff Wornstein. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our earnings release, presentation and supplemental have been available since today on our website at www.ge.com/investor. Also, some of the statements we are making today are forward looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes.

And now I would like to turn the call over to Jeff Immelt.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Matt. GE executed well in a slow growth and volatile environment. We see optimism in the United States, and here orders grew by 23%. In addition, Europe is strengthening and we see positive momentum. Meanwhile, the resource sector and related markets continue to have headwind.

As you know, we closed Alstom on November 1, 2015. As a result, the Q4 of 2016 was the Q1 where Alstom was organic. So I'll give you a few ways to look at the quarter. On a reported basis, orders were up 4% and revenue was flat. On an organic basis, in other words, including Alstom in November December, in the organic calculation, orders were up 2% and revenue was up 4%.

We also show the calculation that excludes Alstom results from the organic calculation. And segment operating profit grew by 6% in the quarter. For the quarter, we had some pluses and minuses. Orders were strong ahead of our expectations. Service growth was very strong for both revenue and orders.

All some synergies are ahead of plan. Some businesses had very strong years, aviation, healthcare and renewables. On the negative side, we failed to close a couple of big power deals in tough markets. And in addition, restructuring exceeded gains for the year. We're active in the portfolio in the Q4.

We announced the acquisition of LM Renewables, strengthening our wind supply chain. We further simplified GE announcing the disposition of our Water and Industrial Solutions businesses. The GE Capital team has done a great job. We closed $86,000,000,000 of asset sales in 2016 and the move to become an industrial finance company is very positive for GE. I'm particularly excited about the Baker Hughes merger, which creates a strong full stream competitor in the industry.

Is a good move for investors and customers. For the quarter, Industrial and Vertical's earnings per share was 0.46 dollars up 6%, and for the year, EPS was 1.49 dollars up 14%. Industrial EPS was up 12% for the year. We accomplished much of what we set out to do in 2016 and we have no change for our framework in 2017. To recap the year, we finished in line with what we saw in December and within the range for the year.

Overall, earnings per share was $1.49 in line with consensus. Organic growth was 1% for the year and margins at 14% were at the low end of our range. Corporate and Alstom were in line with expectations. Foreign exchange created $0.03 per share of headwind for the year and we launched incremental restructuring, which gains failed to fully offset and this created $0.02 of headwind for the year. We met or exceeded most of our cash targets at $32,600,000,000 free cash flow plus dispositions were in line with our December outlook.

We had good cash execution across both industrial and capital and we returned more than $30,000,000,000 to investors in in buyback and dividends. We'll go through each of those in more detail. In all, we were able to offset a challenging oil and gas market to deliver a year in line with expectations. Orders grew by 2% Orders grew by 2% organically in the quarter. Services were particularly strong with growth of 20% and we end the quarter with backlog of $321,000,000,000 up $6,000,000,000 from 2015.

We saw solid growth in aviation, renewables, healthcare and oil and gas. Renewable orders grew by 32%. Healthcare had great international strength with China up 20%, Europe up 6% and Latin America up 16%. GE to GE orders were up 67%. Now overall, equipment orders declined with tough comps and transportation versus last year.

Oil and Gas orders grew by 2 percent organically, our first growth in 2 years. We see some firming in the market. This includes a 42% orders growth in Turbomachinery. Oil and Gas equipment grew by 10% with services down slightly. And for the year, oil and gas digital orders grew by 30%.

Service orders were strong across the company. Power was up 19% and transportation was up 101 percent. Renewables capitalized on multiple repowering opportunities to drive growth. Aviation service grew by 8% with spares up 14%, and we closed our first big lighting as a service deal with Wal Mart. Orders in the U.

S. Grew by 23% and were down about 5% globally. We saw strength in the developed markets, which grew by 8%, and we booked some big global orders, including a $1,400,000,000 order with the Iraq Ministry of Energy for gas turbines. We're gaining share with LEAP in the narrow body segment. GE Capital facilitated $5,000,000,000 of industrial orders in the quarter.

Orders pricing was down slightly with sustained pressure in oil and gas. In addition, Renewables was impacted by U. S. Pricing dynamics. This was in line with our expectations.

Predicts and software orders, in other words, excluding AGPs, grew by 30 36% in the quarter. At $4,000,000,000 orders were up 22% for the year. 7 of 10 segments grew by at least 10%. Let me give you some more details, for instance, for Here, energy connections was up 26%, renewables were up 126% and power was up 2 13%. For the year, we signed partnerships and have 22,000 developers on Predix.

We created a few big global partnerships, including Reliance and Maersk. And we signed the 1st enterprise wide software agreement with Exelon to apply Predix across more than 2,000 power generation assets. Lastly, we acquired ServiceMax to extend our analytics across field service. So orders were in line with expectations with expectations and consistent with our goals for 2017. Segment organic growth was up 4% in the quarter.

This was up 8% without the headwind of oil and gas. We saw substantial strength behind the launch of new products. Power grew by 15 percent with 9H turbines shipped. Aviation organic growth was up 6% with 44 LEAP engines shipped. Life Sciences grew by 9% and Renewables grew by 26% as we shipped 1 point 9 gigawatts of onshore wind products.

Services organic growth was up 5% and was particularly strong with aviation spares growth of 18%. And we saw strong revenue growth in Europe, Japan, India, Middle East, China and Russia. Overall, global revenue grew by 3%. Our gross margins were down 10 basis points in the quarter, driven by difficult mix, and this reflects NPI launches with the LEAP, h Turbine and Newwind products. The segments continue to drive down SG and A, which was a benefit of about 30 basis points.

And segment operating profit margins were up 10 basis points, excluding Alstom and up 110 basis points all in. Total industrial margins for the year were 14% at the low end of our 14% to 14.5% guide we gave you in December. Excluding oil and gas, margins were up 30 basis points. We made good progress on gross margins this year, up 40 basis points. And service continues to be strong with margins up 170 basis points on the year.

Just a few comments on Alstom execution. For the quarter, Alstom generated $4,700,000,000 of orders, dollars 500,000,000 of segment profit and $500,000,000 of cash. So we're seeing solid growth in grid, steam turbines and we believe Alstom is making GE more competitive and we have good momentum for 2017. In the Q4, we announced the exits of Water and Industrial Solutions. We've seen significant interest in the platforms and discussions are progressing.

We expect to close water around mid year in Industrial Solutions late in the year. Net proceeds will be approximately $4,000,000,000 and we're targeting gains of about $2,500,000,000 The gains will be offset with additional restructuring this year. At the outlook meeting, we talked about roughly 100 basis point margin improvement per year in 2017 2018. About half of that comes from running the cost play we've been running and leveling off spend in big programs like the H, the LEAP and new wind turbines. We've got programs around product and service cost that Jeff and Philippe Cauchet are leading.

And we'll drive synergies Alstom and Baker Hughes and we'll continue to bring down our corporate cost. The other 50 basis points comes from incremental costs out in 2 big buckets, digitization and integration learnings on structure that be spreading across the rest of the company. In total, we're working a list of close to $1,700,000,000 with a target of getting $1,000,000,000 of costs out over 2 years. We've announced the new IT structure to run IT horizontally across the company, and we expect to save 450,000,000 the company and we expect to save $450,000,000 We also recently announced a partnership with PWC to hire 600 members of our tax team that will drive another 100,000,000 dollars of savings per year. For cash, industrial CFOA was $8,200,000,000 in the quarter, the biggest cash quarter in our history.

We had significant growth in CFOA and free cash flow versus Q4 of 2015, both growing by more than 30%. We saw a $3,200,000,000 reduction in working capital for the year. When you add back the $600,000,000 from 2016 payment of our long term incentive plan and cash restructuring, free cash flow conversion was significantly above last year. We received another $4,000,000,000 dividend from GE Capital for a total of $20,000,000,000 in the year. We reduced net P and E by more than $1,000,000,000 versus expectations in the year as we completed the investment in major NPI launches.

For the year, free cash flow and dispositions were about $33,000,000,000 above our plan. And GE's balance sheet remained strong. We returned $30,000,000,000 to investors in dividend and buyback, a record. And we remain on track for our goals in 2017. With that, I'll turn it over to Jeff.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Jeff. I'll start with the 4th quarter summary. Revenues were $33,100,000,000 down 2% in the quarter. Industrial revenues were down 3% to $30,400,000,000 As you can see on the right side of the page, the Industrial segments were flat on a reported basis. Organically, Industrial segment revenue was down 1%, excluding Alstom, and up 4%, including Alstom for the months of November December for both 2015 2016.

Industrial operating plus vertical EPS was $0.46 down 12%, excluding gains and restructuring, which were a net 0.04 of a headwind in the quarter, EPS was up 6%. The operating EPS number of $0.43 includes other continuing GE Capital activity, including headquarter runoff and other exit related items that I'll cover on the GE Capital page. Continuing EPS of $0.39 includes the impact of non operating P and A and net EPS of $0.39 includes discontinued operations. The total disc ops impact was immaterial in the quarter and down significantly from last year, which included the gain associated with the Synchrony exit. As Jeff said, we generated $30,000,000,000 of CFOA in 20 16, up from 16 $400,000,000 last year, driven by increased dividends from GE Capital.

Industrial CFOA was $11,600,000,000 down 5%, excluding deal taxes and pension contributions. We generated $8,200,000,000 of industrial CFOA in 4th quarter, which was up 34% versus last year. This was driven primarily by $5,000,000,000 of working capital with improvement across all buckets, including receivables, inventory, accounts payable and progress collections. Industrial free cash flow was up 39% and free cash flow conversion was 212% in the quarter. On a full year basis, industrial free cash flow conversion was 84%, excluding deal taxes, pension and Alstom.

Adjusting free cash flow conversion for gains, free cash flow conversion was 106% for the year. The GE tax rate was a negative 2% for the quarter, driven by tax benefits associated with the non core business in aviation. On a pre tax basis, the gain on the disposition totaled $49,000,000 but because of the high tax basis on the aviation deal, after tax gains were $325,000,000 Normalizing the tax by excluding the tax benefit associated with gains and restructuring, the tax rate for the quarter was 12%, right about where we expected. I want to be clear that the tax benefits associated with the disposition did not fall through to earnings. They were spent in restructuring charges.

Similar to prior quarters, the GE Capital tax rate was favorable, reflecting a tax benefit on a pre tax continuing loss. For the year, the GE tax rate was 9%. On the right side of the segment results, as I mentioned, Industrial segment revenues were flat on a reported basis and down 1% organically, but they were up 4% organically, including Alstom Excluding oil and gas, which continues to be challenged, organic revenue, including Alstom, was up 8% with strength in power, renewables, aviation and healthcare. Industrial segment op profit was up 6% and industrial op profit, which includes corporate operating costs, was up 2%. On the bottom of the page, as I mentioned earlier, industrial operating plus vertical EPS was $0.46 up $6 up 6% excluding gains and restructuring with industrial operating EPS up 5% on the same basis.

For the year, we delivered versus 2015. Included in the $1.49 was $0.02 of uncovered restructuring that I'll go through on the next page. So next on industrial and other items for the quarter, we had $0.08 of charges related to industrial restructuring and other items that were taken at corporate. This was $0.03 higher than we planned associated with the acceleration of Alstom and Lighting restructuring costs as well as higher BD costs associated with the decisions we've made around water, Baker Hughes and additive. In total for the quarter, restructuring charges were $1,000,000,000 on a pre tax basis with $300,000,000 related to the Alstom Synergy investments.

We also made significant investments in lighting, oil and gas, healthcare in

Speaker 5

the quarter.

Speaker 4

Gains in the quarter were $0.04 principally driven by non strategic business exit in aviation. As I mentioned before, gains $49,000,000 on a pretax basis, but $325,000,000 after tax, which drove the low industrial tax rate in the quarter. The Aviation divestiture was principally on the tax line because of the high tax basis associated with the business. The gain was more than offset in earnings by higher restructuring. In the 4th quarter, we incurred higher uncovered restructuring charges than we planned.

And at the bottom of the page, you can see that for the year, we incurred $0.02 of uncovered restructuring. We chose to accelerate restructuring as we had good projects with attractive returns, and it was the right thing to do for the company as we head into 2017 2018. In 2017, we expect restructuring to be about $2,500,000,000 funded by the Water and Industrial Solutions dispositions with a heavier spend in the first half of the year. For the Q1, we're estimating restructuring spend of about 1,000,000,000 dollars with no offsetting gains. For the full year, as we've said, we expect gains to equal restructuring, but there will be variability by quarter.

Next, I'll cover the individual segments. 1st, I'll start with Power. Power orders in the 4th quarter totaled $11,100,000,000 higher by 16%. Organic orders in the quarter, including Alstom organic, grew 14%. Core GE orders of 8,300,000,000 were lower by 4% and also mortars of 2,800,000,000 grew 160% organically.

Equipment orders grew 1%. Core equipment orders of 3,300,000,000 were down 28% on lower gas turbines 22 versus 55 a year ago. We received orders for 8 H turbines in the quarter versus 12 last year, bringing total H orders to 25 for the year and an ending backlog of 30 2. Alstom equipment was strong, was $1,700,000,000 of orders, including 26 HRSGs versus 6 last year and 11 steam turbines versus 2 last year. Organically, Alstom equipment orders grew 4x.

Service orders sold $6,100,000,000 up 32%, with GE core services up 24% to $4,900,000,000 and Alstom orders grew 1,200,000,000 dollars We booked orders for 58 AGPs in the quarter versus 42 last year. Total service upgrades, including AGPs, grew 87%. Allsome service grew orders 61% organically with strength in India, the East and Africa. Backlog finished the year at $84,700,000,000 up 10%. Core GE backlog grew 8% and Allscripts backlog of $18,300,000,000 grew 18%.

Revenues of $8,500,000,000 grew 20%. Core GE revenues of $6,500,000,000 were up 6%, driven by equipment higher by 10% and services up 4%. Equipment revenue grew on gas turbine shipments of 35 units versus 28 last year, including 9 Hs for a total of 26 Hs for the year. Service growth was driven by 27 more AGPs than last year, 62 versus 35, offset partly by fewer installations. Total AGP shipments for the year were 145.

Total Alstom revenues of $1,900,000,000 grew 83 percent organically. Operating profit of $2,100,000,000 was up 27%. Core operating profit was $1,700,000,000 and also contributed $359,000,000 in the quarter. Core earnings were flat on higher volume, favorable FX and positive value gap, offset by the mix impact of 9 Hs this year versus 0 last year. H margins are positive and continuing to improve, but still well below the margins on our mature app products.

Alstom synergies were 4.50 4 in the quarter $1,100,000,000 for the year. The business shipped 104 gas turbines this year. We'd expect it to ship 110 to 115. We expected to ship 6 more units, but those transactions did not close in the quarter, but we expect that those units will close in 2017. In addition, although aero turbines were up in the year, we expected to ship more in the Q4.

Again, we think those units will likely close in 2017. We operate in very tough geographies in this business and there's always 500 megawatts or gigawatt of deals that are hard to close and it's been the nature of the business over the last several years. And we expect this dynamic to continue into the future. In 2017, we expect a flat market in gigawatts. For the year, we're planning on 100 to 105 gas turbine shipments.

We have a strong equipment backlog of $17,600,000,000 which was up 27% and a strong services backlog of $67,000,000,000 which was up 6%. The Alstom integration performed well this year with total year orders of $10,000,000,000 building a backlog that is up 18% and delivering over $1,000,000,000 of synergies in the year. Our outlook for Power remains consistent with the expectations shared at the outlook meeting, albeit off a lower base. As we said in December, we expect double digit earnings growth in Power in 2017. In order to achieve that, we need to execute on all some product margin improvements and deliver services growth.

Lastly, the team has to deliver the incremental cost out actions given the market conditions we face. Next is renewables. Renewable Energy had a strong orders quarter. Orders in total grew 32% to 3,300,000,000 dollars Core GE wind orders were higher by 48% to over $3,000,000,000 We took orders for 11 80 turbines versus 827 last year, up 43%, principally in the U. S.

Where the orders were up 50 percent, driven by the Safe Harbor qualification in 2016 for 100 percent PTC benefit going forward. Units were higher by 43% and megawatts were up 54% on the larger 2 and 3 megawatt turbines. The business also booked $300,000,000 of additional repower upgrades and services. All some orders, principally hydro, were $290,000,000 in the quarter. Backlog finished the year at $13,100,000,000 with GE Core up 16%.

Revenues in the quarter grew 29% to $2,500,000,000 with GE Core revenue up 20%. The business shipped 7 86 turbines versus 847 last year, but the megawatts shipped were up 11% on the larger units. Allstream revenues of $279,000,000 were higher by 161% organically. Operating profit of $163,000,000 was up 3x on better Alstom results. The core business was down 8% on increased NPI spending on the 2 and 3 megawatt turbines, lower price and foreign exchange, partly offset by volume growth and some product cost out.

Alstom generated $48,000,000 of profit in the quarter on strong synergies. For the year, the team delivered about $200,000,000 of synergies well above the plan, driven by sourcing and SG and A efficiency, particularly in 2017 and contribute double digit earnings improvement. The unique repower upgrade offering we expect will continue momentum and the team is making good progress in driving down cost on driving down cost of the new NPIs, critical given the competitiveness in the industry. We expect to close the LM Windpower acquisition in the first half and the vertical integration of blades will also help drive results. In aviation, we had another solid quarter in the 4th quarter.

From a demand perspective, global passenger air travel continued to grow strongly with RPKs up 6.1% year to date November with strength in both with strength in both domestic and international routes. Airfreight volumes grew 3.2% year to date in November. Orders in the quarter were $7,200,000,000 up 5% with equipment orders higher by 2%. Commercial engine orders were down 4% on lower CF6, CFM and Gen X orders, partially offset by strong GE90 and LEAP orders. Dollars 1,800,000,000 of new commercial engine orders included $478,000,000 for LEAP, dollars 186,000,000 in orders for CFM, dollars 577,000,000 for CFM, dollars 577,000,000 orders for Gen X and $326,000,000 in orders for GE90.

Military equipment orders of $360,000,000 were up 2%, driven by another large T700 order for 3 0 6 units. Service orders grew 8% in the quarter. Commercial service orders were higher by 16% with CSA growth of 22% and spare orders up 14% to an ADOR of $44,500,000 a day. Military service orders were down 18% at $480,000,000 on tough comparisons. Backlog finished the year at $155,000,000,000 up 2%, with equipment backlog $33,300,000,000 down 5% and service backlog of $121,000,000,000 up 4%.

Revenues grew 7% in the quarter to $7,200,000,000 Equipment revenue was up 1% driven by commercial growth of 8% with 6.92 engine deliveries versus 6.43 last year, including 44 LEAP engines. This was partly offset by military down 35% on lower shipments. Service revenue was higher by 12%. Commercial spares rate was $43,500,000 a day, up 18%. Our profit in the quarter totaled $1,700,000,000 up 11%, primarily driven by favorable price, volume and productivity, partly offset by the LEAP mix.

Margins expanded 100 basis points in the quarter. Aviation had a very good year. The business shipped its first LEAP engines and currently 20 A320neos powered by LEAP are flying across 6 different customers. Reliability has been excellent and the engines are performing to spec. We had expected to ship a total of about 100 engines in 2016, but in coordination with the airframers, we delivered 77 for the total year, meeting all our commercial commitments.

These units will now deliver in 2017 with total shipments of about 500 LEAP engines for next year. The team is also executing and leading our additive strategy. RKM and Concept Blaze are great platform additions to our capability. We believe 2017 will be another solid year of execution in aviation. In oil and gas, the environment continues to be challenging and activity levels remain muted.

External market indicators appear to be stabilizing with expected more balanced supply and demand fundamentals, partly influenced by the recent OPEC production agreement. U. S. Onshore rig count grew 33% versus the Q3, but was essentially flat versus beginning of the year. Forecasted E and P spending is expected to be flat to modestly up in 2017.

The business had an encouraging orders quarter. Orders of $3,300,000,000 were flat year over year and up 2% organically. Orders for all business segments were up sequentially versus the Q3. Equipment orders grew 4% versus last year with TMS up 48%, Subsea up 26% and Surface up 35%. Downstream was down 45% on no repeat of a large African order last year.

Service orders were down 3% with TMS up strongly at 40% offset by digital downstream subsea and surface, which were all lower. Orders for the total year were down 27%. Backlog finished the year at $21,000,000,000 down 9% versus last year end, with equipment down 32% and services growth up 7%. Revenues in the quarter were down 22%, with equipment down 25% and service down 19%. Revenues for the year were also down 22 percent.

Operating profit of $411,000,000 was down 43% on lower volume and price, partly offset by cost out, which totaled $170,000,000 in the quarter. Total cost out actions for the year were 700 $1,000,000 Total cost out over the last 2 years was $1,300,000,000 20 16 was an extremely difficult year for oil and gas and the business expects the first half of twenty seventeen will continue to remain challenging with sequential improvements in the second half of the year. Offshore drilling and subsea activity will likely remain low in 2017. Consistent with what we discussed at the December outlook meeting, we expect the business to deliver lower earnings in 2017. Increased activity in North America Onshore and stabilization in the Middle East and Europe are needed to drive improvement in our shorter cycle and surface businesses in the second half.

We've made significant progress on integration efforts with Baker Hughes and have dedicated more than 200 people to it. We gave you an update on December 8. No change to that outlook. We expect to close the deal mid year. Next up is Healthcare.

Healthcare had a good quarter. Orders grew 3 percent to $5,400,000,000 Organic orders were strong and emerging markets up 10%, led by China higher by 19% and Latin America up 16%. Europe orders were higher by 6% organically and the U. S. Was lower by 1% were up 16%.

Europe orders were higher by 6% organically and the U. S. Was lower by 1% organically. In terms of business lines, Healthcare Systems orders grew organically by 3% with imaging up 5% on strength in CT, MI and ultrasound, partly offset by lower LCS. Life Sciences orders grew 6% organically with bioprocess higher by 7% and core imaging up 6%.

Healthcare orders for the total year grew 3% reported and grew 5% organically. Revenues in the quarter grew 3%. HCS revenue grew 2% organically with ultrasound up 6% and imaging up 2%. Life Sciences continued to deliver strong growth with revenues growing 9% organically, driven by bioprocess higher by 15%. Healthcare revenues for the total year grew 4% reported and 5% organically.

Operating profit of more than $1,000,000,000 grew 10% in the quarter. Volume and strong cost productivity more than offset lower price and higher digital spending. Margins expanded 130 basis points in the 4th quarter. Healthcare executed strongly in 2016, delivering good organic growth and operating leverage in the earnings. They delivered $450,000,000 of cost out versus their $350,000,000 target.

Margins for the year expanded 100 basis points. In 2017, we expect the same focus on cost and product competitiveness with similar results. We will launch 25 new products and are targeting a point of share in 2017. We expect China, Africa and Asia Pacific to continue their strong growth. Europe is expected to be roughly stable, while the U.

S. May be a bit slower due to the uncertainty around the repeal and replace of the Affordable Care Act. Next on transportation. 4th quarter carload volume improved modestly, up 2.1%, driven by intermodal carloads, up 3.4% and commodity carloads up 90 basis points. Commodity volume was driven by agriculture, which was higher by 7.4 percent, metals were higher by 25% and chemicals were higher by 2.4%, which was partly offset by coal down by 2.8% and petroleum down almost 16%.

Notwithstanding the improvement in the quarter, we expect 2017 to continue to be difficult for volume growth. Year to date, carload volume was down 4.5%, driven by intermodal down 1.5 percent and commodities down over 7%. Transportation orders of $1,400,000,000 were down 58%, consistent with the North American market. Equipment orders of 64 dollars were down 98% on no locomotive orders versus 11 13 units last year, including the large 10 year 1,000 Loco Indio order. Service orders of 1,300,000,000 dollars were very strong, up 2x, driven by large multiyear modernization order to retrofit 500 locomotives of the North American Class 1 railroad over 5 years.

Backlog finished the year at 20 $100,000,000 down $2,400,000,000 driven by equipment liquidation. Revenues in the quarter were down 23%, with equipment down 38% and services up 2%. We shipped 171 Locos in the quarter versus 320 last year. Services grew 2% on higher contractual services, partly offset by lower spare parts. Operating profit of $317,000,000 was down 6%, primarily driven by lower volumes, partially offset by cost out and restructuring benefits and mix.

Margins expanded 4.50 basis points in the quarter. The transportation team executed well in 2016 in a very tough environment. Consistent with the outlook meeting, we expect 2017 to be even tougher with expected loco shipments down 50%, pressuring operating profit down double digits. Having said that, we expect the team will outperform the industry. Next, Energy Connections and Lighting.

Orders for the segment totaled $3,100,000,000 with Energy Connection orders of $2,800,000,000 and current orders of just under $300,000,000 Energy Connection orders grew 8% reported. Organically, including Alstom, orders grew 5%. Power conversion was lower by 23% on continued headwinds in oil and gas. Industrial Solutions was down 1%, but outperformed the North American market by a couple of points in the quarter. And grid orders of $1,500,000,000 grew 27% in the quarter.

Revenues for Energy Connections were higher by 15% and up 16% organically, including Alstom. Power conversion revenues were down 18%, industrial solutions were down 3% and grid grew 56% in revenues in the quarter. Current and lighting revenues were down 14% with current growing 5% the legacy business declining 26% as we continue to resize the business downward. Operating profit in the quarter totaled $102,000,000 Energy Connections earned $98,000,000 and Current and Lighting 3,000,000 dollars Energy Connections earnings were driven by $100,000,000 of grid earnings, dollars 42,000,000 of Industrial Solutions earnings, up 59%, partly offset by power conversion, which was down. Strong in 2016, delivering $226,000,000 of benefits above our target of $175,000,000 In 2016, the market backdrop for these businesses was tough, but it was not a good execution either.

In 2017, we expect this segment to deliver double digit earnings improvements with better execution in Industrial Solutions, lighting and power conversion, and we expect Grid to continue to perform well. Our estimate is the Industrial Solutions divestment will happen later in the year. Finally, I'll cover GE Capital. The verticals earned $478,000,000 in this quarter, up 9% from prior year, driven principally by lower impairments in EFS. GECAS, EFS and Industrial Finance all had strong quarters and overall portfolio quality remained stable.

In the 4th quarter, the verticals funded $3,800,000,000 of on book volume and contributed to enabling $5,000,000,000 of industrial orders. Other continuing operations generated $262,000,000 loss in the quarter, principally driven by excess interest expense, preferred dividends, restructuring costs related to the portfolio transformation and headquarter operating operating costs partially offset by tax benefits. These costs will continue to come down as excess debt matures and we right sized the organization structure. Discontinued operations generated $3,000,000 of income with gains and other exit related items largely offset by operating costs. Overall, GE Capital reported net income of $218,000,000 We ended the quarter with $93,000,000,000 of ENI excluding liquidity with continuing ENI of $82,000,000,000 Liquidity at the end of Q4 was $51,000,000,000 Asset sales remained ahead of plan.

During the quarter, we closed $17,000,000,000 of transactions, bringing the total closed transactions through the end of the quarter to $190,000,000,000 We have signed agreements for an additional 4,000,000,000 dollars in the Q4, bringing the total signings to $197,000,000,000 which essentially completes our plan given that the majority of the remaining assets will run off as it makes better economic sense. We remain on track for 1.1 times price of tangible book that we initially estimated. GE Capital paid $4,000,000,000 of dividends during the Q4 for a total of $20,000,000,000 in 2016 versus the original $18,000,000,000 target for the year. Dividends ahead of the original plan announced in April of 2015. Overall, the GE Capital team delivered a strong verticals performance while executing on all aspects of the exit plan.

With that, I'll turn it back to Jeff.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Jeff. We have no change to our 2017 framework. Let me take you through the pieces. Orders grew by 2% in the quarter organically, oil and gas seems to have bottomed and services are very strong. Allsome is generating orders growth.

So we see line of sight for the 3% to 5% organic growth for the year. We're executing on a $1,000,000,000 incremental cost out play with plenty of restructuring to support it. So we see our way to 100 basis points of margin enhancement. Alstom is executing well and should add EPS at the high end of our range. And we end the year with good momentum and working capital.

Meanwhile, GE Capital continues to execute on their transition to an industrial finance company. So to confirm on 2017, we see EPS of $1.60 to $1.70 operating cash flow of $16,000,000,000 to $20,000,000,000 and cash to investors of $19,000,000,000 to $21,000,000,000 in buyback and dividends. So a good outlook for the company, a solid year in 2016. And now, Matt, let me turn it back over to you.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks, Jeff. With that, operator, let's open up the call for questions.

Speaker 1

The first question is from Scott Davis with Barclays.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning guys. Hey Scott. Good morning.

Speaker 5

I know we've talked in December about the election, but now you've had a couple of months. I mean the what are your customers? I mean I understand healthcare could get pushed out a little bit, but what are your customers in power and renewables and some of these other areas where you could have some regulatory uncertainty? Is there a risk that they push back orders or delay projects, things like that? I mean, clearly just the U.

S, but how do you think about that, Jeff?

Speaker 3

Scott, I'll take a crack. I would say we haven't really seen much change so far. I think if I took it by segment, the Affordable Care Act is getting the most, I would say, both attention and the media and by our customers. I think you could see some caution around the Affordable Care Act as you go forward. We haven't really seen that much, but that could happen.

I think on the renewable side, really with the PTC over the next few years, I think that's pretty much locked in place. And then I still think the basic thesis around gas power in the U. S. Remains intact as it pertains to being a baseload technology in the future. And then I think outside the U.

S, I really haven't seen much change in interplay post the election in terms of what our customers are saying and how they're thinking. I don't know, Jeff, would you add anything to that? I think that's the lay of the land, Scott.

Speaker 1

The next question is from Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.

Speaker 6

Thanks a lot. Good morning. Just wanted to focus on Aviation. So I guess you had a very good EBIT number in Q4, helped by the gain and the high teens growth in commercial spares sales. Should we think that that profit growth sort of levels out in the first half of twenty seventeen?

You don't get the same growth rate in spares presumably LEAP shipments catch up after a light Q4? And then also longer term, your commercial engine orders were down about 9.40 units in 2016 overall. How are you thinking about the cycle and your commercial OE revenues?

Speaker 4

Well, let me start with a few things and I'll let Jeff weigh in. The gain was not recorded in Aviation, okay? That was recorded at corporate. It was offset in segment performance in Aviation. We had a strong spares year this year.

We're up double digits. Our expectation is the spares sales rate, the ADOR, will not be up that strongly next year. We're thinking high single digits. And I think our expectations are, as Jeff shared with you in December, is that we're going to continue to grow the operating profit in Aviation next year, notwithstanding the LEAP shipments. So right now, our estimate is we'll ship something close to 500,000,000 500 LEAP engines next year, and that's factored into that outlook.

And we expect the services business, partly with the spares growth I just talked about, to continue to grow smartly in 2017. Yes. I think, Jeff, just to echo, Julian, what Jeff said, I think the two things

Speaker 3

I think about in Aviation is the business model as it pertains to services and revenue passenger models and things like that. I think investors should feel great about that. And then execution on the LEAP, and I think Jeff laid out the LEAP shipments. We're kind of on learning curve and those two elements, I think, really are the ones that dictate aviation growth.

Speaker 4

But we feel we think the aviation team did

Speaker 3

a good job in 2016 and they're well positioned to do another good job in 2017.

Speaker 4

And the commercial equipment backlog is very strong. We took few orders on new commercial equipment engines in 2016, but the backlog is very strong. Yes. Great.

Speaker 1

The next question is from Steven Winoker with Bernstein.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Dave. Hey, good morning. Since I only one question, I'd love to focus on cash here. And within that, Jeff, is there any factoring this quarter from GE Capital into GE Industrial? And then also, while it's the strongest cash flow quarter in a while, still a little bit below what we thought you guys implied when we talked about it before.

And then as you think about it progressing through 2017 beyond, maybe just talk a little more about kind of the cash flow initiative comp that really can give investors confidence that the cash flow part of the story is improving?

Speaker 4

Okay. There's a lot in that. So let me start with the Q4, Steve. So we improved working capital in Q4 about $5,200,000,000 which best we can tell is the strongest working capital quarter the company has ever had. And I want to just give you some of the pieces on that.

So within working capital, accounts receivable generated about $500,000,000 $1,200,000,000 generation in inventory, dollars 1,800,000,000 generation in AP, a lot of that being renegotiated terms. We've talked about realigning or aligning suppliers with customers in terms of the time sync between build and collect. And then 1,000,000,000 dollars 7 on progress, orders were a bit better as a result progress is a bit better. That's how you get to $5,200,000,000 So within that accounts receivable performance, you asked about factoring. For the total year, factoring with GE Capital was a $1,600,000,000 change for the year.

It was $1,700,000,000 last year. So actually year to year, it was $100,000,000 less of a benefit in the year between what we did with GE Capital around factoring. And in the Q4, importantly, and you see it because our receivables improved $500,000,000 is from the 3rd to Q4 of 2015, the benefit was $2,300,000,000 The benefit going from this past Q3 to this quarter was $700,000,000 So it was actually down $1,600,000,000 year to year between 3rd Q4 each of those years. So there's very good underlying performance here. It's not just about it's actually very little to do with GE Capital factoring.

Speaker 3

Steve, I would add, I think the one piece that we're still not happy with in terms of Q4 is inventory. And I think we generated we reduced working capital by $3,000,000,000 for the year and still didn't do what I think either Jeff or I want to see on inventory. We expect inventory to go down by $2,000,000,000 next year. And we think that's going to give us a ton of momentum as it pertains to CFOA and working in 2017.

Speaker 4

So let me just follow-up and answer that part of your question. So we came in at $11,600,000,000 of industrial CFOA. We were shooting to be something closer to $1,000,000,000 CFOA in the latest update we gave you. When you subtract CapEx against industrial free cash flow, we ended up at $8,900,000,000 That was actually right in the middle of the range we gave you coming into the year on industrial free cash flow. But the 400 lite is really all about inventory and it's essentially the $1,000,000,000 roughly, the $1,000,000,000 sales mix left more in inventory than we expected.

Not all of that would have converted to receivables and then from receivables would have converted to cash, but a significant piece of it would have been. So I would say on an industrial free cash flow basis, a couple of 100,000,000 lighter, on industrial CFOA closer to $400,000,000 lighter and most of it's about that volume not going out the door and not being rev wrecked.

Speaker 3

And this is all in people's incentive plans for 2016 2017.

Speaker 1

The next question is from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

Speaker 5

Hey guys, good morning.

Speaker 4

Hey Steve.

Speaker 8

So we're getting a lot of obviously questions around tax policy and we've gotten a lot of questions from investors on you guys have a relatively low tax rate as it is, but there's some conversations we've had with investors that say, it can go substantially lower or something like almost to like a 0% to 5% type of range. I can't quite get there just doing the high level math. Maybe if you could just give us some color on how your tax guys are kind of looking at what's out there from a tax policy perspective?

Speaker 4

So at this point, Steve, is all speculation, right? I mean, the only point of reference you have is a little bit of what's coming out of the new administration and then what exists in the form of the Brady Bill and House Ways and Means. And I think what GE wants and what we think is most important to competitiveness for U. S. Companies is essentially a competitive tax rate, something that looks more like the OECD average, which is roughly 21%, 22%.

And this notion of territoriality that you pay the tax in the jurisdiction that you actually earn it. And then from there, those earnings are fungible and can move cross border. Those are the essential things. And then as a transition item on historical foreign earnings, the companies left offshore, we want a reasonable transition tax, if one is necessary, in order to true up the historical performance. The real delta between that is a minimum to make U.

S. Companies more competitive and put them on an equal footing with most of the people we compete with, countries we compete with, is this question about border adjustability. And as I'm sure you understand and the way border adjustability has been described, there is an incentive for exporters to export more because there is essentially no tax on exports. And that's about trying to drive more production and manufacturing into the U. S.

So it's if a company is a net exporter, you could envision under border adjustability, they pay a lot lower tax rate against those export against U. S. But you're going to remember in the case of General Electric, 55%, 60% of what we do, we do outside the U. S. Border adjustability doesn't impact at all what we pay for taxes in Sweden or Switzerland or the UK, Japan or China.

And so although you may companies may find themselves in place with a real relatively lower U. S. Tax liability, I don't think it changes in any way how they think about what their foreign tax liabilities are. Are.

Speaker 1

The next question is from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning, guys.

Speaker 4

Hey, Andrew.

Speaker 9

Jeff, can you give us a little more color on your power business? It's understandable that you would see some delays in shipments. It's a pretty difficult market. But did you see any incremental delays in closing deals toward the end of the year? And was it a result of GE being more careful around financing or

Speaker 4

customers just wanting to delay delivery? And then you mentioned you still

Speaker 9

expect double digit growth in just wanting to delay delivery? And then you mentioned you still expect double digit earnings growth in tower. But how dependent are you on some of these delayed turbine shipments to reach your 2017 forecast?

Speaker 4

Yes. So maybe I'll start, Jeff. So a couple of things happened in the Q4. We had 6, arguably 7, but I would say 6 gas turbines that we absolutely thought we're going to ship. 4 of those were 13E2 class turbines that were going into Bahrain and Iraq.

And these are just enormously difficult geographies to get stuff done. And right up through the end of the year, we thought those transactions were going to go. They didn't end up going. I think we're confident they will go in the first half of twenty seventeen. The second were 2 9Es that were going to West Africa.

And as it turns out in the end, the customer came back and rethought whether they wanted the 9Es, which we had made in inventory, and whether they actually might want to go with an H class turbine instead. So that likely will book as an order in 2017, not clear yet whether if it converts to an H, whether it will ship in 2017. So and then I'd say the last piece is, although for the year, we did pretty good on aero turbines, we were up about 10 units for the year. We were down 10 units year over year in Q4 and we missed about 7 trailer mounts in the Q4. And again, we're talking about places like Libya, Iraq, really, really difficult geographies where we just didn't get those short cycle convertible TMs across the finish line.

I think our outlook for TMs and narrow derivatives largely remains intact for 2017. They're just really difficult transactions to get across the line. And I'd say the last thing is, although we had a good AGP quarter, we did 145 for the year, very close to right in the middle of what we guided. We expected to do more than 145 AGPs for the year. And other upgrades, dry load NOx, DLNs, we had built sets, because we thought we could deliver incremental upgrades here in the Q4.

And some of those just moved to the right. We didn't get all the upgrades we thought we'd get done in the quarter. And that's really the delta in the Q4 as it relates to Power. Now when you think about next year, there's really as I said earlier, there's 3 or 4 things we need to happen. So Alstom performed very well in Power in 2016.

We over delivered on synergies. The business delivered everything they said they were going to do around Alstom. Orders were very, very strong. The backlog from the time of closing until year end is up 18% year over year, very strong up on equipment, even stronger than the 18%. So we need the Power than the 18%.

So we need the power business to deliver the incremental improvement in Alstom from 2016 to 2017. We need our service business to do more or less what they did this year. The service business for the year grew business for the year grew operating profit about 7%. We're looking for mid single digits, that kind of performance in 2017. We got to deliver the structural cost out, just given where we are in the industry and the volatility.

And then the last one is, we took a lot of headwind this year on the H launch, both the ramp of the H and the individual unit cost. Now the units we shipped in the second half of the year were profitable, significantly more profitable than the beginning of the year, but still much less profitable than a lot of the F technology that they're replacing. And so we're looking for that turnaround, a meaningful turnaround, 100 of 1,000,000 of dollars in 2017 as we come down not just the cost curve on the H, but you'll notice in our orders OPI, we've been getting price on the H for the last 5 quarters in a row. And so we think prices are much better as we deliver 23 Hs in 2017.

Speaker 1

The next question is from Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS.

Speaker 5

Hey, Shannon. Good morning, guys. How are you?

Speaker 10

Hey, just a follow-up on kind of the power and also in renewables. As you think about ramping the development programs, both those segments on a core basis had margins down, power 150, renewables, 160 this quarter. How did they turn around in 2017? I mean, do both of those still do you envision the core piece having up margins? And how much of this swing in the development programs as part of that versus other factors?

Speaker 3

Maybe I'd start, I think the development programs explain a ton of turnaround year over year. I think in the case of the Power business, the H investment was, I don't know, dollars 300,000,000 or $400,000,000 of headwind in 2016 versus 2015. We think most of that turns around. In the case of the onshore wind business, we're going through a big product conversion process in 2016 as well. So I think we feel like on both those cases, we should see core margin enhancement going into 2017.

And that's both on the what I would say both on the development side and also on the product cost side.

Speaker 4

Yes, I think on the H, we just talked about that both price and unit cost and less development cost. I don't think it's more complicated than that. On renewables, you don't have the price element. Price is a real challenge in onshore wind turbines. Some of it's the competitiveness around getting the PTC Safe Harbor orders.

So in renewables, it's a little bit of program costs around the 2.x and the 3.x turbines. It's a lot about product unit costs and volume. So we're going to ship order of magnitude a number similar to what we did this year, roughly 3,000 wind turbines. But in addition to that, we're likely going to do more than 800,000,000 800 repower units in 2017. So we expect the volume to be up materially and that also to contribute with volume leverage to the margin improvement year to year.

Speaker 1

Our final question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

Speaker 4

Yes, sir. Good morning.

Speaker 11

Just to go back to the question overall revenue, as we look at sort of your revenues versus consensus, it just seems that revenues are relatively weak, relative consensus across the board. And usually you guys hit the numbers pretty close. And it's not just power, it seems to be across the board. And just has anything happened broadly in the last 2 weeks of the year after the analyst meeting to drive the slowdown, if there is sort of a broader development that explains it? Thank you.

Speaker 3

I mean, I think, Andrew, I would say the 4th quarter organic revenue was power up 15, renewables up 26, oil and gas down 21, aviation up 6, transportation down 22, healthcare up 3%, energy connections up 16%. So the total organic revenue growth was up 4% for the quarter. I think clearly power is explainable. I think clearly oil and gas, even though I like the orders performance in oil and gas, it's a harder segment to call. I think other than that, Andrew, it's really just noise.

It's just it's $31,000,000,000 or $30,000,000,000 to $35,000,000,000 a quarter. There's going to be puts and takes on a revenue line. But I think if you go down if you think about 2017 as being an organic guide of up 3% to 5%, and you've got 4% organic in Q4 in revenue, I feel pretty secure about the 3% to 5 percent guide for 2017. I just think you got to look at it that way. Look, Power didn't do as much revenue as we would like.

It was still substantially up organically, up 5% organically without Alstom and up 15% with Alstom. So that's not bad.

Speaker 4

I would just add to that, Andrew. So power was light, no question. Oil and gas was light, mostly transactional convertible volume, less than the team was forecasting. Everything else was actually better. When you add up the rest of the portfolio against our framework, they came in higher on revenue.

Speaker 2

Yes. Okay, Greg. Couple of quick announcements before we wrap. The replay of today's call will be available this afternoon on our investor website, and our Q1 2017 earnings call will be on April 21. We'll also be holding our Annual Shareholders Meeting on April 26 in Asheville, North Carolina.

Our Annual Shareholders Meeting on April 26 in Asheville, North Carolina. Jeff, back

Speaker 3

to you. Yes. So Matt, just to wrap up again, I think the team's focus on 2017. Here's the ways that the teams compensated as they look forward into next year, 3% to 5% organic growth. We just kind of went through the pieces of that, 100 basis point margin enhancement, I think combination of run rate and incremental cost out actions already in play.

Cost out actions already in play and strong free cash flow and dispositions. I think good momentum in Q4, more work to do, but I feel like the momentum around the company is very good. So we're aligned with what we showed you in December and off and executing. Thanks, Matt. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. And you may now disconnect.

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