Please welcome to the stage Steve Winoker.
Good morning, everybody. I don't know about you, but when I see that video, it makes me so excited about the future of two independent companies, GE Vernova and GE Aerospace. I'm pretty psyched to have you all here today. Actually, there are about twice the number of investors and analysts in this room this year relative to last year, which was also fun in Greenville. Thank you all for making the trip. We're here. For those of you online, appreciate you taking the time to join us. You're actually sitting in the CTEC, the Customer Technical Education Center for GE Aerospace. I hope you'll find is an impressive facility. You're surrounded by engines that make up most of the fleet in the world today. You probably got here on one of those. This is literally where we have training classes.
When we were preparing for the event, there'd be trainees going around. It was just a wonderful place to be. Thank you for coming. Before we start, some reminders. We've got materials on the website, as usual. Note that some statements that we're making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. We're excited to be joined today by Larry Culp, Chairman and CEO of GE, plus CEO of GE Aerospace. Scott Strazik, who's our CEO of GE Vernova. Carolina Dybeck Happe, CFO of GE, and many business leaders throughout the room who hopefully you had a chance to talk with last night at breakfast, and you will through the day today. It's a busy agenda.
We have presentations and Q&A sessions through about 11:30, then we'll have lunch, and then we begin the tours on-site at Gemba, where you are, where the work gets done. We're excited again to have you here. All our key meetings at GE start with SQDC, safety, quality, delivery, cost. With that in mind, we're gonna start with safety today. Welcome, Jenna Fillmore. Jenna is our Senior Health and Safety Staff Manager at BladeWorks, which is part of GE Aerospace and that you'll see today as well. Jenna, thanks. Come on up.
Thanks, Steve. Thank you all for traveling to Cincinnati. We're excited to have you here today with us and look forward to showing you several of our sites. At GE Aerospace, our purpose is we invent the future of flight, lift people up, and bring them home safely. We pride ourselves on our safety focus. With that in mind, I have a few quick safety topics to cover. First, fire safety. In the event of a fire, please exit the building through the same doors you entered this morning. Once outside, a GE employee will take you to our gathering area. Second, tornado safety. The weather in Ohio can change in an instant. If we would experience severe weather, a GE guide will take you to rooms 201 or 202, as these are our location's safe shelter areas.
Later today, many of you will experience tours at active work sites. We're very excited to take you here, but please keep in mind that safety glasses are required whenever we're on the production floor. Steel-toe shoes are not required today, but closed-toe shoes are. Be mindful of your surroundings as there is active equipment running and possible fork truck traffic. Also, please do not touch any production hardware or machinery unless a GE employee has indicated it is safe to do so. GE Aerospace has established the ARC, the Aerospace Response Center. This emergency command center is based here in Cincinnati, but it's dedicated to keeping our employees safe no matter where they are in the world. Today, this coverage extends to each of you. If at any point you feel unsafe or experience an emergency, simply call the number on the back of your badge.
I will end with where I began. Safety is of the utmost importance to us at GE Aerospace. We experienced an 18.8% reduction in injuries from 2021 to 2022. This is largely in part due to the implementation of operator standard work, our rigorous safety training, and the quick identification and correction of stock work issues. Thank you so much for your time. I look forward to seeing you on the tour. Please enjoy your day and stay safe.
Please welcome to the stage Larry Culp.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Like to welcome everybody who is here at CTEC. We really do, as Steve said, appreciate you taking the time to come spend the day with us, and certainly all of you who are dialed in all around the world, we hope this is a good investment of time. Jenna, thank you for getting us started. Extremely well said. We really start every meeting. We thought it appropriate to do the same thing here to make sure we were focused on safety. Then there were two. I think what we're looking forward to doing today is really doing a deep dive, right? A deep dive into GE Aerospace, the company that will shape the future of flight. Then do the same thing with GE Vernova, the company that will lead the energy transition.
I think we've got a very full agenda here, both with the presentations and the tours, to give you an in-depth look at where we are, more importantly, where we're headed in each of these businesses. We're excited to have the opportunity to share that progress and share that outlook with you today.
Very pleased to be co-hosting this with Scott Strazik, the CEO of GE Vernova. I've had the real pleasure of getting to know Scott over the last 4.5 years, one of the first people I in fact met when I joined GE. He led a phenomenal transformation of our gas power, then our power sector overall. Now he's at the helm of GE Vernova. I think he's the right leader for this business at this point in time. I'm excited to see the continued progress at Vernova as they prepare to launch as a public company sometime early next year. I think what you'll see, not only through the course of the Aerospace presentations but also with Vernova, is that, in fact, this is a new era. It's a new era with respect to how we operate.
It's a new era culturally, let alone in terms of the corporate form that we'll take going forward. We're excited to have the opportunity to share all of that with you during the course of the day. If we jump in, we clearly are here today operating off a much stronger foundation than we've had in a long time. That's not just a function of putting $100 billion of debt behind us, though that certainly helps, right? It has, as it always has with me, it starts with the team, right? We've got a team that really is living the GE leadership behaviors.
When we talk about our leadership behaviors, we're really talking about humility, transparency and focus, and really walking that talk on a daily basis, not only to deliver for customers and for investors, but to really drive the sort of culture and workplace that we wanna see at our company. Talk a lot about lean. Really at the heart of Kaizen or continuous improvement is just getting a little bit better every day. That, on a compounded basis, is a beautiful thing to see, and I think you see that in a lot of corners of GE today. All the while, running this business in a much more centralized way. It's not about the center, it's about the customer and those closest to the action to serve the customer.
There are a whole host of things that you'll see today in terms of how we operate in a more decentralized way. You'll see it a little bit in Russell's world as we've combined our engines and services businesses together, as we've broken out wide body from narrow body, trying to operate in the way the customers see us. Scott's got a bevy of examples in his world. I think that's making us much, much better, all the while not losing sight of what has made us the company we are, all the way back to Edison, right? That's leading-edge innovation and technology, not for its own sake, but really applied to the problems our customers have and the solutions that they need.
You put all that together, that really is, I think, how these businesses are positioned to truly shape the future of flight, let alone lead the energy transition. I hope you walk away today with that very much in mind. Where do we start? Two businesses, two sectors. Obviously a common heritage, but also some interesting common denominators here as we prepare to separate, right? Both coming in close to a $30 billion revenue level, so we have scale. People worry about GE getting smaller. These are still big businesses, right? With global reach, capability, contacts that really set them up to perform very well on a standalone basis. We love the fact that we are so close on a daily basis with our customers.
The hardware that you see here, Scott could have taken you to a similar location to show off the GE Vernova capabilities. This is interesting, it's what we do day in, day out to keep the lights on, to make sure planes are in the air, which is really where the action is for us. As you see on the slide, that very much is how these businesses are structured from a financial perspective, with 70% of revenue in aerospace coming from services. 70% in Gas Power. For GE overall today, it's 60%. I think a lot of people kind of miss that fact. When we talk about technology, we talk about services, that's really what we do, despite the size of these magnificent machines that we deliver to customers on a daily basis.
Those services, obviously, are a function of the installed base, and as you'll see, those install bases are really unparalleled in both of our industries and continue to grow as we innovate, be it with engines, turbines and the like. This is a slide that many of you will recognize or at least the key facts in it from our earnings report back at the end of January, and we were in Miami just a couple of weeks ago, with both Julie and Andy, reiterated. No change here, but just if I can take a moment to talk about GE as a whole before we dive into the businesses. We think we're gonna have a very good year. Not unmindful of the fact that a lot of people are talking about recession, but we're talking about a high-growth year at GE, right?
We see organic growth up at the high single-digit levels, largely because of what we're seeing in commercial aero and the beginning of a recovery at GE Vernova. I think we're excited about the earnings potential that we see this year. We've got to adjust everything, of course, with GE HealthCare. By the way, in case anyone hasn't noticed, GE HealthCare went out on the 3rd of January. They seem to be doing very well, and we're proud of that. On an adjusted basis, we're gonna grow earnings this year by at least a factor of two. We think we'll be somewhere in a $1.60-$2 a share. Really excited about that. Those just aren't earnings, those are real earnings, again, because we'll see strong cash conversion this year. We'll be up over 100% again.
That should yield, as you see here, $3.4 billion-$4.2 billion adjusted off the $3.1 billion base for healthcare. I think we're well positioned to have a strong year, but we've got to earn it. When we wrap up today, we're gonna get back to work and you can see what we're gonna be doing here in 2023. If I go to the next slide and just walk earnings in a little bit more detail for you. Again, on an adjusted basis, we're starting at $0.77. It will be largely a volume-driven year in many ways. Again, commercial aero helping. A little bit of mixed pressure with the ramp of the LEAP that does create some headwinds for us.
A little bit of that we see in offshore wind. We do think in turn, we're gonna work through that and have positive price cost in 2023. Doesn't mean inflation is abating. We do see it softening a bit, and we know we're getting better at offsets, workarounds, redesigns, resourcing, in addition to getting price where we can. There's been a lot of work, and Scott will get into this in some detail with respect to the Vernova businesses, onshore wind in particular, where our cost out and our restructuring work will be an important part of the profit bridge into 2023. We continue to invest. That obviously will be the gray box here. With the deleveraging, we also get a nice EPS lift simply because of the lower interest.
That's what takes us from $0.77- $1.60- $2.00 in 2023. If I do the same walk quickly on cash, I think what you'll see here, again, adjusted for healthcare, is a volume-based step-up into 2023. Really pleased with the way the services businesses, not only in aero, but frankly in gas, continue to drive very strong cash generation and earnings conversions into cash for us. That continues into this year. We do think we get a bit of a working capital benefit this year. Modest, but nonetheless, our lean efforts really helping us here with our trade working capital. We aim, despite the supply chain challenges, to be more linear. That will help us both from an inventory and from a receivables perspective.
We also know this is a year where our contract assets and our progress should really help us as we as we move forward. AD&A, if all goes according to plan, will be a meaningful headwind for us simply because as deliveries catch up, and we do think deliveries will increase through the course of the year, it's a timing issue. Works against us in 2023, net net, we'll manage through that. Again, a little bit of CapEx, taxes, normal course puts us in a very strong cash position again at the operating level in this year. That's really the wrap on the GE perspective. Now, it's gonna take a lot of work to deliver those numbers. We know that. That's why we're so keen to get back at it after we host you today.
Virtually, it will take virtually all of us to deliver those numbers. We also have something else we need to do this year, and that is clearly get ready for the separation, not only of Vernova, but also for Aerospace as a standalone company, right? That won't happen automatically. While we've got 95% of the team hard at work delivering within the businesses, we will have a small team, as we did last year, as part of our separation management office, working through all the work that needs to be done to get the businesses ready to go. We have the benefit of the experience of HealthCare a year ago. We learned a lot through that, and I think we're poised to do the work that's required to get Vernova in a position to go early next year.
Scott will introduce a number of his new team members that are new to the company that a number of you had a chance to meet last night. Really excited about the way the team is coming together here in preparation for that. I think we all know it really comes down to a few things, right? We've gotta work through what I call the rewiring and the replumbing to separate these 2 businesses. It's a little tougher, admittedly, between Vernova and Aerospace than it was with healthcare, but we know how to do it. We know what we're signed up to do here, so we'll work our way through that. There are a host of other things that we need to do, particularly continuing to bring down the corporate cost.
You've seen us halve the corporate cost over the last couple of years. We wanna make sure we've got as small a center as possible when we get to that moment where both GE Vernova and GE Aerospace are carrying those corporate overheads. Rest assured, I know Scott's keen to bring that down, and the fella running GE Aerospace seems to be very much of a similar mindset. Some of you got that, so gives me a little bit of feedback as to who's paying attention. The work the board has to do, though, is pretty critical here as well. As we work through the year, and we've got time to do this, much as we did last year, we'll work through the capital structures for each of the two businesses, as well as stand up the two boards.
Excited about what we were able to do with the HealthCare board. We'll clearly do the same here with Vernova and Aerospace. We won't talk a lot about the separation work today, but rest assured, we know that what's most important is the operating performance of the businesses, and that's where we'll spend our time together today. If I go to a final slide here, just to step all the way back. I think what we want to have you walk away from is just a much better appreciation as to why GE Aerospace is the leader in aerospace. Strong positions both on the commercial and on the military side. Russell will come up and take you through a number of the core efforts that are underway in the commercial business.
Amy will do the same thing on the military side. We'll have Mohammed come up and really cut across both businesses and talk about how we are driving innovation and technology with an eye toward the future. Proud of what you see in the hall, but we know when none of us are here, and it's the next generation. We wanna make sure that they're prepared with the technologies in hand to take care of the next generation of flight. Similarly at Vernova, there's a lot of talk about the energy transition, but we don't know of a company better prepared to lead, truly lead, than GE Vernova. There's so much that we're so proud of in terms of what has happened at Gas Power. Clearly, we need to turn the performance in renewables.
I think you'll hear Eric Gray come up and talk about how we continue to drive improvements even though we've come in a year early in our profitability goals for Gas Power. Then both Philippe and Vic will come up and talk about what's happening in renewables, how we've turned Grid to a point now where it's a profitable business, and the line of sight we have on the improvements that we really have to deliver, not only for you as our investors, but also for our customers in onshore wind. Work we know how to do, work that is underway. I think through the course of that, certainly later on through the tour, we really do hope you see that a new era is upon us at GE.
Not strictly a function of the corporate structure, but more importantly, how we operate, who we are culturally, and in turn, how all that comes together to generate and create more value going forward, both for our customers and for you as investors in terms of revenue, and certainly in turn, good profit and cash performance. That's really the framing for the day. We thought we'd jump in. Let's go alphabetically. No better way to do that, we'll start with GE Aerospace. As we do that, we'll start with a video.
Behind every takeoff, every overstuffed suitcase, and every pre-flight walk around, there's GE Aerospace. Where we continue to lift people up, bring them home safely, and build the engines and systems that propel the world forward. With meticulous standards and a commitment to quality, we're putting more than 100 years of experience to work, securing every part with precision and expertise. Introducing a new era of flight. We are GE Aerospace.
Good morning again. You heard Jenna at the outset talk about our purpose, you saw it again here in the video, right? It really is, I think, incredibly compelling when you think about what it means to invent. I mean, how many of us have the opportunity in the course of our careers to really shape the future of an industry? Not many. When we talk about that in terms of lifting people up, you might think that's merely an engineering effort, there is also something that's quite motivational in terms of what we do. As you saw with the safety moment at the outset, we take bringing them home safely incredibly seriously. We brought 3 billion people home safely last year. That's how many people were in the air with GE and GE partners under wing.
That's a really an unfathomable number, it's something that we are incredibly proud of at GE. In terms of how we operationalize that, as you'll see through the course of the presentation, we really think about how we shape and define flight today, tomorrow, and into the future. We'll dive deeply into each of those elements. In doing that, I think that really is the core of what makes this business so special. What we're trying to do on a daily basis is to make sure that we don't simply coast on the back of this wonderful platform, but really manage with not only more intensity, more discipline, but with greater focus. There's a lot that our customers need and want us to do.
There's a lot that we can do, but you've got a senior leadership team, many of whom will take the stage here in a moment. They're keenly focused to make sure that everyone on the team knows exactly what we need to do today. We're not trying to do too much, but to really do those things that we have to do incredibly and exceedingly well. That's really, I think, the framing here. If we go to the next slide. We operate fundamentally in two different sectors. I mentioned this earlier, on the commercial side and on the military, both fundamentally propulsion businesses. These are leadership franchises in both sectors. You think about what's happening on the commercial side today, both in terms of just the post-pandemic return to flight and the expansion and modernization of fleets, we couldn't be better positioned.
On the military side, it comes down to one word, readiness, right? With respect to the fleet that is out there today, let alone what is to come. That's why the service element of these businesses is so important. Again, 70% of what we do at GE Aerospace is service-based. That's from a revenue perspective. Clearly, profits and cash are an even higher percentage in the aftermarket. That's the financial profile, being close into the customers on a daily basis really helps us see and hear what they need, what they need today, what they're going to need tomorrow. It's that intimacy that so many companies aspire to. It is woven into the core of how we operate and what we do. I think that's a real competitive advantage in addition to being an attractive financial profile.
If we go to the next slide, just a couple of, I think, key points to highlight here. Talk about 3 billion passengers, that equates to basically 3 out of every 4 departures around the world. As Steve said in his opening, many of you probably arrived here safely with GE under wing. Again, 70% of revenue in services, a phenomenal backlog, over $350 billion. Also, when you look at the lower right, the hybrid, high-altitude, megawatt-class testing. Those are the sort of futuristic investments that we're making today to make sure that we continue to shape the future of flight. There's a lot of momentum in this business, momentum that we're gonna continue to build on. We've got a tremendous amount of tailwind in the marketplace today.
Obviously, the last few years during the pandemic were challenging. When we look at the post-pandemic recovery on the commercial side of the business, we think we'll, through 2025, grow at a 25% compounded clip. I mean, just phenomenal growth. Again, largely because the flying public wants to be back in the air, and even at a time where clearly there are concerns about the consumer, it would appear that travel, flying in particular, is a priority. As we talk to our airline customers, they could not be more optimistic. They couldn't be more bullish with respect to the outlook this year. We're well-positioned to play there.
On the military side, as the world continues to evolve and becomes a more uncertain place, we're certainly seeing defense budgets, not only in this country, but amongst our allies, continuing to rise in face of those concerns. As you'll see in Amy's presentation, we're well-positioned to be a partner to the military here and abroad as they lean into those challenges. That's really the backdrop. Again, we're not gonna suggest that we are recession-proof or recession immune, but coming into 2023, it's the last thing on our mind because of all the incredible backlog and demand that we see in front of us.
With that market backdrop, you look at the businesses, and we often talk about how well-positioned our commercial business is in terms of the size and the age of the fleet, and that's true. You see over 41,000 engines, many of whom have not seen their first shop visit. Russell will take you through how that really spring-loads us for a very strong run here. I think if you step back for a moment, why is that the case, right? Why are we so fortunate to be in this position? It really comes down to the way customers have viewed our offerings over time with respect to efficiency, reliability, and safety.
We don't have a birth right on that next order. Time and time again, Mohamed and his team have really made sure that we're able to deliver to spec or more so that we are the engine of choice, be it on the part of the airframer or the airline. That, coupled with an open MRO network, really allows customers to tailor their aftermarket support in ways that suit their business strategies. We see airlines with different configurations all over the world. Having that open network really is, I think, another part of what is distinctive about the GE Aerospace commercial franchise. There's a similar setup on the military side, right? A significant installed base, a strong global footprint here.
As we think about not only today's readiness, but also the preparation for next-generation aircraft, for example, 6th generation, there's a lot of investment going on here that we think positions us very well to tap into those rising defense budgets over the next many years. Excellent backdrop. Very well-positioned. If we go to the next page, this is a format that we shared actually in this room as part of our annual takeoff meeting just several weeks ago. What we tried to do is capture on one page for everybody on the GE Aerospace team, what are we doing in 2023? Talked about empowering the team through lean and decentralization. Steve talked earlier about SQDC. That's really where we wanna focus our lean efforts. It's not lean for lean's sake.
If we're gonna ask the Aerospace team to drive a near 20% improvement in safety, if we're gonna drive, as we did last year, a dramatic reduction in defects per engine within our manufacturing processes. If we're gonna meet the ramp, the challenges of the ramp, both in the aftermarket and with respect to new units, let alone continue to drive productivity, it's not just pushing people hard, it's really helping them. Our lean toolkit really is the way that we're doing that work and getting better at it, in my view, every single day. All the while trying to run this business less as GE Aerospace where we can, and again, on a more decentralized basis. You'll see a number of examples. One of which we won't touch on is our very important systems businesses. I say businesses plural deliberately.
We used to talk about that as one business, but when you look at it really is four. Not unlike what Scott has done in power, we're gonna take that business and not run it horizontally anymore. We're gonna run it in a vertical fashion. Amy's picked up two of those businesses. Riccardo Procacci, who is here, CEO of our Avio business, is gonna run the other two, and we already see the benefit of focusing on the discrete PNLs as opposed to the accounting consolidation. That's what lean and decentralization really mean for us. But we do all of that to serve the customer, right? We wanna make sure that we're not only meeting but exceeding our customer expectations.
There's a lot of ways in which that will manifest itself, but I'm sure as we have seen already with many of you, the focus is on the ramp. It's not one, it is two. Everything that we do is aimed at making sure that we're able to deliver on those commitments. We feel like we're exceptionally well aligned with our airframers, but we know that every extra engine that we can ship, they can put to use, as will the airlines with respect to our aftermarket activities. We'd love to be in that position. It's a daily battle, but one I'm confident the GE Aerospace team will rise to meet. We can't let all of that activity, dare I say, that pressure, distract us from what we need to do with respect to the longer term, right?
It's just so important that we not only protect our investment but also protect our talent that's working on the breakthroughs that Mohammed will share with you. Again, because we know that we're the recipients of that type of commitment over years that has led to the enviable position this business enjoys today. We're wholly committed as a leadership team to make sure that we leave the business in a light condition as we move forward. When we put all that together, we really think we can be the company that defines flight today, tomorrow, and into the future. It's that framework that you'll see us use here as I bring Russell up. We really wanna share with you, both on the commercial and on the military side, what we're doing.
The airlines are ramping, the airframers are right behind them with new aircraft, and we're smack in the middle of that, all the while protecting the future with programs like our RISE investment. Amy will take you through what we're doing today. We've been challenged from a delivery perspective in a number of instances. We're not happy. We need to serve the customer more robustly. We'll recover our delivery this year, all the while making sure that as we ramp on new platforms, we are doing the same without those without those slowdowns. I mentioned sixth-generation military aircraft earlier. It's a significant part of our investment envelope, and there's a lot that we're excited about given the technology that is being developed and is proving out very well in test here at GE Aerospace.
If we go to the next slide, from a financial perspective, you've seen these broad guidelines. We'll have Rahul come up after the presentations to really take you through the GE Aerospace financials in more depth. In essence, what we're looking at is very strong growth in 2023, right? We'll be up somewhere in the low to mid-teens from a growth perspective as we move into 2025. We think by 2025, we should be at a 20% operating margin level, right? Good growth, but we've also got a number of productivity improvements to lay in to be at that 20% op margin ratio. By 2025, we think we will continue to convert very strongly triple-digit cash conversions.
We know 2023 will be a very strong year in this regard, but as you play that out through 2024 into 2025, this is the sort of financial profile that we're aiming for. We don't think 2025 represents some sort of cliff. We think we're positioned longer term to see a tempering of growth, but still very strong growth in excess of GDP in the mid to high single-digit range, continuing to accrete margins while maintaining that very strong cash conversion. A combination of the power of this franchise and all the work that we're putting in to continue to improve the trajectory. Hopefully that gives you a little bit of a sense of where we are at an Aerospace level.
In the spirit of decentralization, we're gonna dive in to each of our two major sectors, and we'll start first with Russell on the commercial engines and services side. Russell, over to you.
Thank you, Larry. I'd like to thank everybody for being here today. I know this is a considerable investment of your time, but we really hope to make this worth your while, the time we're gonna spend this morning. Today, I'd like to share with you this morning a real look into how, as you heard Larry say, we're defining the future of flight today, tomorrow, and the future. I'm gonna spend some time talking to you about what we believe makes this business unique, the market dynamics, give you an overview of our portfolio, and then go deeper into our narrow-body and wide-body platforms. Then we're gonna close out talking about some of the innovation priorities and investments that we're making in the business.
Basically, what I hope to accomplish this morning is to help you understand why I just absolutely love this business. I've been around the aerospace business for over a decade in my GE career. I can tell you that there's three things that really differentiate this business. First, on the far left is the breadth of the products and the quality of the products that we offer. Propulsion offerings across all aircraft types. We believe we have the best technology that provides the right reliability, fuel efficiency, durability, and safe operations that you heard Larry talk about. Second, we operate in an open network. This means that our customers get maximum choice. The MROs in the market compete to be able to service on the GE engines. The customer is able to determine who they prefer to work with.
That means it's also a broad network, where we're focused on ensuring that we have the right offering at the right place at the right time for our customers. It also means that we have higher residual values on the GE assets, and that the engines thus stay in service and operate longer. Third, differentiated customer support. We have 10,000 engineers, we believe the best team in the industry. 500 specialists that monitor 160 million data records, 41,000 engine assets, enabling a takeoff every two seconds side by side with our customers. These three things have built the trust that has created this broad portfolio with the operators, lessors, and airframers around the world over decades.
It's once again, this expansive portfolio that you see behind me on the screen, or better yet, for those of you in the room, just look around at these beautiful engines that you get to sit amongst. If you think about this portfolio, you could see the amount of work and the commitment of people that have come before us to do such amazing things for absolute decades. The CF6 engine on the far right, over 40 years in operation. The LEAP engine that we talk about so much, coming into service and continuing to grow is going to be a phenomenal asset. The GE9X will be entering service soon. We are a diversified propulsion provider.
That means we operate across all major platforms, covering all the airframers and working with all the airframers, then wanting to make sure that we stay close in those positions where we happen to also be sole source. 15 different applications, as you see here, we operate sole source, like the 737. Where we compete, we like to believe that we are the engine of choice. You can tell by the picture behind me that the business model has a significantly long service tail, which means higher margins, lower volatility, which also helps to protect us during economic downturns or troubling times. Let me stay with services a little bit because it is such an important part of the business and offer a walk-through and illustrative life of a CFM56 engine.
There are a few variables that everybody needs to understand on what drives the maintenance interval on one of our engines. Three major components: utilization, the number of hours that it's used, cycles, takeoff and landings, and the temperature. You can see on the left an engine schematic that shows you the key components of the engine, and down below, a temperature gauge that tries to give you a feel for where the hottest temperatures in the engines are, where we might see the greatest wear over time. On the right is a snapshot of the four different types of shop visits that we'll see typically over the life of an engine. First is quick turns. We really think of these as warranties. They're called quick turns because we want to get those engines in and out.
Targeted, proactive, planned maintenance to be able to address issues in the engine, to be able to ensure that we minimize disruption for the customers and get those engines back into their hands as quickly as possible to deliver on that time on wing objective. As the engine goes out and operates over its life, about 5 to 10 years, given different operating parameters on how they're used, we end up doing a full hot section restoration. You can see by that picture in the center there that we're really addressing the core part of the engine, that hottest section. 5 years later is shop visit 2, and we come in and you'll see the little dots. It's saying that we do targeted work around blades and vanes, some LLP, but we're also addressing the LPT.
Here we also try to incorporate a mix of repair and used serviceable material to make sure we're doing this at the right cost of ownership for the customers. 15 years in or 20 years in, the engine comes home once again, and we do a full restoration on the engine plus a fan. What I'd also draw your attention to is that over time, the offerings can shift from CSAs to T&Ms, where the customer is over time determining that they too want to shift value over products that might provide a level of certainty versus ones where they might have a different degree of choice and ability to dictate work scopes. I know we've covered a lot on this page, but I just want to make sure I leave you with 3 things.
It's temperature and utilization that drive the shop visits and the work scopes of the engines as we accumulate cycles over the life of the engine. The PRVs are the source of the revenue and profit for services in terms of those major events. Realize that the service offerings can and do change over the life of the asset, working very closely with our customers. Now we talked about one of the critical drivers is cycles. Why don't we stay with cycles for a little bit and elevate here for a moment and talk about what we're seeing in the market and some of the economic factors, some of the tailwinds that you heard Larry reference here a moment ago. It's really exciting to be able to see all the people that are coming back.
We watch the flight data each and every day and can see the number of people that are choosing to get back in the air on the heels of what has happened with COVID. That accumulation of cycles is what drives the very strong shop visit stream that you see to the right side of the page. We're working with supply chains to continue to recover and are navigating through material shortages, but I can assure you that our teams are making progress in that endeavor. Through 2025, we have the soft capacity in place to be able to support the existing fleet, but we are making targeted, thoughtful, efficient investments to be able to support future demand. On the LEAP, we are activating external partners to expand and support network growth as needed.
I would say in short, the demand that you see here is strong, the shop visits are robust, and we feel really good about the today and tomorrow and future components that you see here. Now let's move to new engines. On the left side of the page, you can see the long-term demand for aircraft are driven by continued macro tailwinds. I think we all know what those are. We are aligned with our airframers through 2024, and through the natural course of our discussions, we'll work on alignment beyond those dates. On the right is how this transitions into engine demand. We expect to see mid-20s growth driven by LEAP-powered aircraft with strong growth in the remaining portfolio and through 2025.
I'd like you to note that the production output is a function of installs, working with the airframers, and spare engines that we also make sure that we have to be able to manage fleet stability and take care and support our customer operations, especially on the LEAP engine. Let's transition from the market to the strategy. This page should look familiar. It's what Larry just showed a moment ago. We think about it in terms of three major components. Let's keep this really simple. At the end of the day, today is all about supporting the installed fleet and keeping it flying. We're focused on that SQDC component that you heard Steve reference, and Larry as well, here earlier.
The safety of our products and the safety of the flying public, making sure that we have the right quality and are delivering on our durability commitments, making sure that we're delivering the assets in line with customers' needs and expectations, and then wanting to do that more efficiently each and every day, continuously improving in those endeavors to be able to drive that C for cost. Tomorrow, it's about delivering on our NPI programs, making sure that we meet the commitments and expectations of the LEAP, and we bring that GE9X engine into service as expected. A real focus on durability, make sure that we get that right, and that we also build out the MRO network to support those assets as they come into service. We'll need what you saw on the earlier slide in terms of overall support capability.
In the future, we're continuing to develop, certify, and scale safely the technologies for the future. Now I would like to walk you through a little more detail into some of the specific product lines to provide a little bit more context. Today, we're focusing on the narrow body and wide body product lines and portfolios, to keep this kind of contained for this morning. On LEAP is clearly the major original equipment and services contributor to growth for us through the decade. The 9X will be small volumes through 2025, but grow through the second half of the decade.
It's that mature base that you see down below in the dark blue that is the large and stable contributor of revenue and is also what drives the high-margin parts and services content, given how much it's aftermarket-oriented over the life, as you kinda saw us show in that chart earlier on the progression of how engines move over the life cycle. Clearly, it's pretty obvious from the chart here that the large proportion of that is CFM56. Why don't we go back to that and talk about that in a little bit more detail. The CFM56 is truly a special program. It was launched as part of a JV with Safran, as many of you are well aware, we get to celebrate the 50th anniversary of that amazing partnership next year.
The shop visit growth for CFM56 will be a function of the two things you see here on the page: fleet demographics and the retirement dynamics. From a fleet demographic standpoint, 23,000 engines in the installed fleet, 50% approximately of those assets have yet to see their very first shop visit. This gives us great confidence in terms of what is still yet to come, and we're working with our customers to make sure that we have the right mix of new repair and used material to give them the cost of ownership to wanna make sure that they invest in those shop visits as we expect. The retirements to the far right have pushed to the right versus what we were expecting earlier following COVID.
It's really been attributable to a slower delivery of MAX and NEOs while demand has shifted, continued to shift, if you will, to a robust set of offerings where customers are just really wanting to come back, and we're seeing the airframers really bullish on their forward schedules. Another point to note on retired aircraft is that as they retire, they become feedstock for the used serviceable material components that we use to be able to service our customers. Ultimately, I hope that you can see that the fleet remains strong, and there's a lot of shop visits left in CFM56. We need to make sure that we can deliver those shop visits, and I'm sure a number of you have heard about the constraints inside of the MRO space.
We are working each and every day leveraging lean to break constraints and drive lean across our supply base. I thought I would take a moment to share with you an example of one of our suppliers, Component Repair Technologies in Cleveland. I had the opportunity to go see Rick and his team live to see what they were doing and to watch how we're partnering with them to be able to drive their own culture of lean through problem-solving. You'll hear Rick, him talk about PSRs or problem-solving reports. I thought it would be good for you just to have a peek into how we're continuing to drive this, not just internally, but through our supply base. Let's take the video.
The CFM56 low-pressure turbine case is one of our most complex parts, both for our internal and external customers. We've been able to partner with CRT in a lean process where they're utilizing the problem-solving reports or PSRs to drive actions throughout the site, ultimately reducing the turnaround time for the low-pressure turbine case from 70 days down to 35 days.
We launched the PSR. It was a great process. It was embraced by both parties. It was an immediate success. It drove engagement at all levels of the business. Most importantly, it drove engagement at the level of where the work was being performed. Our goal was a 50% reduction in GT. The welding process and machining process were two specialized processes that we needed to reduce in order to realize this 50% reduction. We implemented a new technology called Metal Transfer. We were able to reduce the process time from 44 hours to 4 hours. We were welding 5-6 cases per week. We now weld 5-6 cases per day. Our relationship with GE Aerospace goes well beyond transactional.
It has been built on trust, collaboration, vision, common belief, two companies working together as partners, towards a common goal, providing the best customer service and experience. This lean journey has been noticeably different than our other journeys. What's the difference? The PSR. It's in an understandable format, easily communicated to the mass, utilizes five why Gemba, for engagement, establishes goals, encourages daily management. Bottom line, it empowers everyone. Nobody is sitting on the bench. Everybody's in the game with the PSR.
I love that video. five cases a week to five cases a day because everyone feels empowered, and we're able to get everybody in the game to be able to deliver. There's more examples where that came from on what we're working together with our supplier base to do to be able to deliver on both the CFM56 and LEAP ramps. Now moving to LEAP. It's the primary growth driver for the business and is a critical enabler of our growth. With output up in 2022 already 50%, we're gonna jump another 50% in 2023 to achieve our expectations and targets. This ramp is no small feat. The LEAP is actually one program, but two different engines, 2,500 parts, 160 different suppliers, 20 GE shops, and believe it or not, only 10% common hardware.
Once again, this gives us an opportunity to be able to demonstrate the power and the potential of lean to be able to be successful on a program like this. I'd like to share another example here from one of our own shops, Terre Haute, and what they did on the turbine center frame. This team increased output by 70%, going from 22 to 38 turbine center frames by value stream mapping, leveraging production preparation processes or 3P for those that embrace lean. Strategic supplier relationship development. We actually have these suppliers kitting for us now, and some of them that are actually embracing and working on pull for inventory management and flow.
The growth on this chart is something that clearly excites us, and I hope excites you, but it is only one factor of the things that we know we need to manage and must get right. We're also focused on customer experience and clearly the profitability of this program. These dynamics are a function of durability, cost per unit objectives, and PRSV growth. To be clear, durability is our number one priority. We want that engine on wing making money for our customers exactly where it belongs. We're doing this, as I said earlier, through proactive targeted improvements to achieve the time on wing objectives. To be clear, if you look on the left side of the page, the LEAP engine is actually performing better than CFM56 at the same point in its life.
Mohammed is gonna come up right after me and provide a little bit more color on what we're doing around our action plans there. On unit costs, we expect to achieve mid-single-digit cost out between 2022 and 2025, despite the inflationary headwinds of which you're all aware. We focus each and every day to look at how we could do more in that effort, and I can absolutely tell you the teams are committed to do so. The product is seeing high utilization, so when customers have it, they're flying it. The fleet growth thus then drives, as we talked about earlier, those cycles means that we're gonna see PRSB growth over time. We are focused on enhancing the support network, leveraging Lean once again to be able to build out efficient capacity, and we are making some targeted investments to complement that where necessary.
We do expect this program to be profitable by mid-decade. We've talked about narrowbody quite a bit, but as I mentioned at the opening, one of the key differentiators for us is that we have a balanced portfolio. I'd like to share a little bit right now around what it is that we're doing with our widebody fleet. We offer a diverse set of widebody platforms that play a unique role in air travel. The GEnx, for those in the room to your right there, powers the most versatile widebody. The Nx has a 2-to-1 win rate versus its competition. The GE90. The 777 demand remains strong amongst both PACs and freight operators. The GE9X or, excuse me, the CF6 first, I'm gonna come to this in one moment, getting excited.
The CF6, really 50 years of operation, really a great reputation for its reliability, and it's been the product of choice for a lot of the freight operators around the globe. Overall, we're seeing high single-digit and double-digit or low double-digit shop visit growth over the medium term and attractive margin profiles given that 80% or so of this is really tied to services mix. Let's look to tomorrow and why I got excited, the GE9X engine. This engine is one that we will continue to work to bring into full operation in 2025. Our focus is what you see here on the page. We're working very closely with Boeing on the certification of the 777X program. We're working to continue to win more and to be able to build out and ensure the success of this campaign.
We're working in the technical aspects around durability, performing dust tests and other elements, making sure the parts are producible to ensure the proper technical capability, and then clearly, we wanna make sure that we build out the operational elements to support our shops. We spent time this morning kind of clarifying what is it we're doing today, what is it we're doing tomorrow across the products. Now I wanted to take a moment to talk about what it is that we're also doing with our services network and then get into a few of our innovation priorities. Starting with services. We're using Lean. We always will start with Lean first. We want great processes before we overlay something on top. Technology to improve maintenance operations.
You can see here from the chart an example of a vane repair turnaround time improvement that we did with our shops in Singapore, a 40% reduction in turnaround time, enabling this to be an additional way that customers choose to come to us when they want to get their repairs and back to their hands as quickly as possible. On a technology front, we wanna keep the engines on the wing actually where we can. The image that you see is an AI-assisted 360-degree inspection with higher quality inspection capability. It enables 25 additional cycles for a customer to continue to operate. It reduces the inspection time from four hours to one and a half, and actually means that we also reduce the amount of time that the engine is not available for the customer to be able to operate, what we call maintenance burden.
As I said in the opening, we are focused on defining the future of flight today, tomorrow, and clearly in the future. It's kind of hard to do that if we don't talk about products. We have a lot going on with new product technology. We're strategically focused on making sure that we have the right technology to compete and win on the platforms of the future. To do that, there are multiple demonstrations that are underway as we speak. On the open fan, we're working to deliver 20% fuel efficiency, working closely with Airbus. On hybrid electric capability, we're working with Boeing, NASA, and Clean Aviation to be able to support battery and fuel cell hybridized experiment demonstrations. Alternative fuels, we're also working with Boeing to be able to modify a Passport engine to be able to perform on liquid hydrogen fuel.
As I said once again, a lot going on in the new product space, and you'll hear some more in a moment from Mohammed. What excites me most honestly about this is an opportunity for us to be able to work with industry partners, governments, and some of our closest customers to be able to jointly determine and find the solutions that are gonna drive how we decarbonize the planet in the future. I'd like to share with you for a moment a video from Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, speaking about how we're partnering today and moving forward, particularly as it relates to SAF.
We've been proud to partner with United Airlines for more than 50 years. Together, we're not only helping the public return to the skies, we're shaping the future of flight. Like United, we know availability of sustainable aviation fuel is crucial for the industry. That's why we partnered with them to power the world's first passenger flight using 100% sustainable aviation fuel. We continue to collaborate to enable greater adoption of SAF as we embrace a shared vision for decarbonizing flight.
The partnership that we have with GE is really important. For me, I'm glad to see it as GE Aerospace, and to me, it builds on decades of my experience with GE engines, where they were a leader in engineering, innovation, sophisticated, thinking over the horizon and solving the problems of the future. That partnership is also translating now into sustainability. While they're building more efficient engines for us, they're also working with us on the ground floor, particularly on sustainable aviation fuels and investing with us and bringing their engineering and innovation expertise along with us to try to build this industry from the ground up, because it doesn't really exist today. I think it's gonna be an important part of both of our futures. We appreciate the fact that GE is all in.
United is all in, and GE is all in on it with us.
I'd like to give a special thanks to Scott and his team. United is clearly an important customer of ours, and we're really excited about growing our partnership further. In closing, there has never been a more exciting time to be connected to GE Aerospace. Let me summarize a few points that I've shared this morning just to make sure that you could take those with you. It's this, GE Aerospace, is a great business with significant tailwinds, and an opportunity for us to be able to continue to help define the future of flight. I have great confidence in the ability and the capability of our team and their ability to execute, and I could tell you that we're building on their progress, and there's more to come.
We have a large, diversified portfolio that delivers real value for our customers who put their trust in us each and every day. When customers choose, we are together for decades, jointly finding solutions and creating value together side by side. I can assure you, as I mentioned earlier, we do not take their trust for granted. We have a lot to get done. We know that there's gonna be ups and downs along the way, but the team that is doing this each and every day around the globe is a resilient one that is excited to take on defining the future of flight, and that I know we will. Thank you for your time. Now I'd now like to bring up my partner, Mohamed Ali, our VP of Engineering.
Thank you, Russell. Good morning, everybody. I'm very glad to be here again today.
Here's my plan for the day. First, I will talk about how the engineering team is supporting the ramp that Russell spoke about, both in original equipment and in services with our customers. We'll have a deep dive into LEAP, and then we'll finish with talking about the future of flight. We have a new term that we coined. We call that engineering 360. This is not your traditional, conventional engineering team that creates great designs and then will toss them over a fence to supply chain and the customer and services. Let's talk about supply chain first. Let me introduce you the picture in the middle. It's of a LEAP high-pressure compressor spool, complex, critical rotating part. The picture shows it actually in a tank being inspected.
This part was one of the most limiting parts for production in the second quarter of last year. What do we do? Went there. The engineering team went there, worked with a great supply chain team, spent a week, understood the problem. The problem was the part was spending six hours in inspection. It was way too long. We worked with them in updating the tooling. We also changed the inspection path of the ultrasonic inspection technology. At the end of that week, working with supply chain, these changes were implemented. Instead of six hours of inspection time at the beginning of the week, it became 30 minutes. At the end of that week, that part is not limiting production anymore.
If you recall last year, in the second half of the year, LEAP production increased by more than 40% versus the first half of the year. This takes you a little bit behind the scenes in one of the ways that this was accomplished. How and why are we able to achieve that? If you recall, the industry was hit very hard by COVID. Some would argue the industry has lost talent and expertise, but we have maintained a stable, experienced engineering team throughout COVID. Just to give you some numbers, we went into COVID, average years of experience in the GE Aerospace engineering team was 13 years. Even after 18 to 24 months of extensive hiring, we're gonna finish this year with an average experience of somewhere between 11 and 12 years.
This allows us to deploy capacity, but more importantly, deploy capability where it's needed to resolve issues across the entire supply chain and across the entire industry. This is part of the secret sauce and the differentiation we talk about. Let's move to talk about customers and services. The picture in the far right is actually of the world's first successful robotic on-wing intervention in a jet engine. We have been able to go robotically in a part of the engine that's this big and go in with a laparoscopic device, think about minimally invasive surgery, and reverse the effect of dust in the Middle East. Besides this being very cool, it extends the time on wing for our customers in the Middle East. Think about it. It's 10,000 engineers worldwide, that they are developing and understanding a great knowledge of supply chain.
They understand what's producible and what's not producible. They work with customers every day, understand the environment where the customer is operating, understand how the engine is being used, solving problems for those customers every day. As a result of that, it creates this virtual cycle of continuously improving the designs for our customers. No wonder that at the end of that team designs the world best jet engines that you fly on. Shifting now to talk about LEAP, and here's my plan. I'm gonna talk about what's good in LEAP and what needs to be improved in LEAP. Let me first talk about what's good about LEAP. The engine was designed to provide 15% better fuel burn than its predecessor, CFM56. Met expectations on the mark. The engine is actually being heavily utilized. Let me give you some numbers.
97% of 365 days, the LEAP engine is ready to go, available to the customer, and they use it every day of those 97% of the 365 days. This actually is the highest utilization in the industry of any modern engine. Relative to its predecessor, the CF56, which as you know, is an iconic engine in its own right, the removal rate of LEAP is actually better than CF56 at the same point in the life cycle of the engine. We are very proud of where the LEAP engine is, but we have improvements to make, and we have a very important work ahead of us to make these improvement.
Before I talk about the work that needs to be done on LEAP, it actually is the same work we have done in every engine that you see in this hallway. It's the same work we have done on CF6, same work we have done on GE90-115B, same work we have done on CFM56, and the same work we have done just recently on GEnx. As a matter of fact, we actually have a big head start with LEAP. Let me take GE90-115B as an example, which is the engine right to my left here, looking at me and looking at all of us, and it's actually the grandparent of GEnx and LEAP that came afterwards.
When the engine started, it had a shortfall in time on wing, and it needed heavier maintenance burden on our customers when it started, particularly in the Middle East. I actually recall I worked with that team in 2012 and 2013. I heard many people say, "GE90 is never going to achieve its customer expectations, particularly in the Middle East." What do we do? We do what we know how to do. We went, we visited the customers, we understood the problems, we worked with them. We actually developed the technology to simulate the effect of dust in the Middle East and be able to test that in-house, understood the root causes, provided the fixes to our customers. The rest is history. It became that gold standard that you all know for the wide-body market. We didn't stop there.
At that time, GEnX was in development, we infused some of the GEnX technology into GE90, that even exceeded the expectations in fuel burn, created sustainability, at the same time, we exceeded expectations in time on wing and maintenance burden. There is a very important ingredient. GE90 has a stable, reliable architecture, we only needed to change a handful of parts that are on this page, a handful of parts to achieve the customer expectations. Let me tell you, anybody who will tell you that they need to redesign a large portion of the engine in order to achieve the customer expectations, you should be worried. That's not what we are doing, let's talk about what we are doing with LEAP. Apply that to LEAP now.
Now you understand why I said we have a head start. Large installed base successfully working in the Middle East, India, China, and all around the world of CF6, GE90, CFM56, that are all meeting or exceeding the customer expectations. As it stands today, LEAP has a shortfall in time on wing, particularly in the Middle East and India. Sounds familiar? There are a small handful of parts that are causing that, and that's what sounds very familiar to you. Actually, for the first time in public, I'm standing here and saying that we have tested the improvements to those parts, and we are excited about the performance they are showing.
As a matter of fact, one of those parts, which is the fuel nozzle, which is the highest cost cause of the maintenance burden for our customers, has been in flight testing since early 2022. We are really thrilled about the performance. We have been able to do what we do, turn the problem on, turn it off, show it works. That makes us having very high confidence about our ability to meet customer expectations. Why is that? Again, reliable, stable architecture, a handful of parts that need to be changed, a successful performing installed base and the engineering 360 team. I think by now that sounds very familiar to you. Now, with that momentum, let's shift gear and talk about the future of flight.
There are two revolutions that everybody talks about. We are in technology and we are in the forefront of these two revolutions. The first one is hybrid electric, the second one is alternative fuels, including hydrogen. We are excited about the partnership we have with NASA and Boeing to develop hybrid electric technology. In fact, two days ago, we also announced collaboration with Sikorsky to develop hybrid electric vertical lift. We have successfully tested the world first altitude testing of high voltage megawatt class hybrid electric system. We have done that in collaboration with NASA at the only facility in the world that's capable of testing hybrid electric systems up to 45,000 ft. Now why is that testing important? The reason is that high voltage electric machines, they have the tendency to produce plasma in high altitude. Think about lightning bolts.
Obviously you can imagine how that's very critical for safety of flight and reliability. For the past decade, we have been developing the material system technology to prevent that. That test was very critical to demonstrate, and it was very successful in demonstrating the safety of flight and reliability. With regard to hydrogen, we're progressing very well in our partnership with Airbus and the European Union with Clean Aviation toward a flight test of an engine working on liquid hydrogen by the middle of this decade. There are two revolutions that we do not talk enough about, maybe not at all. I am really convinced that those who will miss on those two revolutions will be missing on the future, period. The first one is that for the first time, we are able to design and analyze practically at the molecular levels.
We are using tool that the world's fastest supercomputers as we speak right now, which is informing us about geometries and design. Designs that in the past, we would have really considered to be completely outside our experience. Think the innovations that can happen with that. Without the ability to manufacture those geometries and designs, it's really meaningless. That's when the second revolution comes, which is ceramic matrix composites and additive manufacturing. Today we are the only company with certified and flying ceramic matrix composite parts and additive parts. When we embarked on ceramics, there was a report in the industry that, "Will pigs fly before ceramics?" I don't know about pigs flying, but I know that most of you probably flew in here with ceramics parts designed and made by this company and by this team.
I wanna go back to supercomputers for a second because I'm very, very passionate about it. Just to give you some calibration here. We are using supercomputers that are 6 times the computational power and capability of any artificial intelligence technology that you are thinking about in the world. You don't actually buy your way into that. You are invited to participate in that, and we are very grateful to the collaboration with the United States government and Department of Energy, which is allowing us to use the world's fastest supercomputers right next to applications like vaccine development and national security. This is how the next generations of aircraft engines are being designed. I always get that question, including last night. Do we have to wait until RISE suite of technologies develop all and all of them mature?
RISE being the Revolutionary Innovation Sustainable Engine Program that we have. The answer is no. We are actually working on upgrades, and we are maturing the technologies that we can provide to our customers. Informed by the supercomputing capability and using ceramics and additive, we provide those upgrades. We continuously increase the value of the assets that they own today, including LEAP. Recall that's exactly the same we have done with GE90 when we infused technologies coming from GEnx to increase the value of the assets that our customers own. This is what this engineering team does. This is the virtual cycle of learning innovations that I talked to you about. This is what engineering 360 is, and I was proud here to stand today representing that engineering team. Thank you very much for your time. With that, I introduce Amy Gowder.
Good morning. Thank you, Mohammed. I'm excited to be with you. I got a lot of great warm-up questions last night. I'm confident that I'll be able to answer questions across the portfolio. I'm gonna talk about how our portfolio is well-positioned today, tomorrow, and in the future to meet the war fighter needs and deliver on growth. Yes, I will talk about the adaptive engine. Let's jump in. Our security environment around the world is very dynamic. It is leading to increased funding and budgets. In the U.S., we expect over the FYDP or the future year defense to continue to see 2% growth. I believe the budget coming out today will be around 2.4% or so.
When I talk to acquisition executives in the Pentagon or the program executives such as in Army Aviation, they're all very clear. They're focused on modernization of capabilities and readiness. For GE Aerospace, that means we continue to see strong funding in the operation and maintenance accounts that service the existing fleets, which we deliver through performance-based logistics contracts. We also saw last year, additional orders of products such as F-15EX, and then, of course, funding for next-generation capabilities. For modernization with next-generation capabilities, of course, our adaptive engine technology as well as other classified engine technologies, make us well-positioned to compete and deliver on the future of combat for the customer. Shifting to international. In Ukraine, those events and conflicts have obviously made NATO nations reconsider their capabilities, and increase spending and results in procurement.
An example of that for us was in Poland just last year. Very rapidly, they acquired 96 T700 powered helicopters, as well as 48 F404-powered light fighter combat aircraft. We see nations around the world outside of NATO investing in indigenous aerospace capabilities, which offers GE Aerospace opportunity to put our products on even more platforms and create those partnerships for the future. We believe we're well-positioned to support the warfighter across all of these. Let me illustrate for that on the next slide with the breadth of our portfolio. We have a broad spectrum of products across many different platforms, and we're already seeing a demand signal for those products. Our backlog for just the engine revenue is $11 billion. That's 2.5x our 2022 sales.
In the last two years, our book-to-bill ratio has been 118%. We are seeing that demand signal. That demand signal has been across rotary wing platforms, combat, trainers, as well as our commercial derivatives applied in the air mobility space. Finally, what you might not see on there is we do power the ships. Turbine power surface navy, we power 90% of those turbine-powered ships. We also see this demand signal not just for U.S. products, but international exports such as the F-16, as well as indigenous platforms that you see along the bottom that I spoke of, where they're investing in aerospace capabilities in the country. Our F404 and F414 engines have been integrated more than any other engine in over 20 platforms, providing combat and training capability around the world.
We also see that the international market through the indigenous and the exports is growing, and that's higher margin revenue for us. In fact, coupled with that international revenue with our commercial derivatives on top of our existing services base, we are seeing the growth to be higher margin and therefore accretive to GE Aerospace. We have our new platforms, particularly rotary wing, where we've introduced two new platforms, T408 and T901, which I'll speak on details later. Of course, our next-generation capabilities. We believe this spectrum of products is well-positioned. Now let me walk you through the strategy of how we're gonna deliver on that growth. Like Russell, we're framed in today, tomorrow, and the future in our strategy. Today, it's all about using our lean operating system to deliver on that growth and improve our operations.
In our growth platform, executing on those new product introductions, competing internationally, and then, of course, taking the 26,000 engines in the fleet and continuing to deliver value through our spares and services will lead to growth. Of course, we're very excited about adaptive technology and its application in 6th-generation aircraft, as well as some adjacencies in hybrid electric that Mohamed spoke of, as well as hypersonics and UAVs. We do believe this product portfolio is aligned to the warfighter's needs and the future of combat today, tomorrow and in the future, as well as meeting our shareholders' expectations. Let me go deeper on each of those elements. Lean. Russell's video showed a great example of how we're partnered in lean and commercial. The same holds true in defense.
I'm gonna give you a couple examples on this slide of where we've seen the results. We're feeling and seeing those results. Our T700 engine, we embarked on a quality initiative to improve the amount of defects we were generating in the manufacturing process. It was a comprehensive effort, and we called it part to print. As we implemented it on key parts, we saw a 90% reduction in defect generation in those parts. Of course, that means less risk of customer escapes, but improvements in yield, and most importantly, no rework or disruptions to flow. Flow is the other area we focus on specifically in the defense market. We too have partnered with suppliers.
In fact, the F110 example in the compressor case, we worked with a supplier to employ traditional lean tools, constraint management, reconfiguring their operation, breaking down the bottlenecks, and that has improved, of course, yield, reduced costs, but most importantly, we've seen 2- 5x the output that both Mohamed's example and Russell's examples show. We know that these improvements will be felt in terms of improved delivery to our customer. Now let's move on to growth. Our great backlog, that $11 billion backlog, is going to lead to a 7% CAGR in output of engine units over between now and the end of the decade. That will grow our installed base in the industry as well. Why are we being chosen for these new platforms? Let's talk about the F404.
The F404 is the ideal thrust class for the training market, the training aircraft around the world are being recapitalized as we need new pilots introduction. It's also the engine that was first designed for the F-18. It was designed to be reliable and durable in hot and harsh carrier environments. It's also been reliable, the reliability has been made it successful in single-engine applications. It's been proven a engine of choice continuing now, and we see it growing through the end of the decade. Our F110 engine has the longest time on wing of any combat aircraft out there. It has 8.5 million hours of flight time. It enables a stall-free, full unrestricted envelope.
It enables a heavy payload, as well as proved itself reliable, enabling the time on wing in hot, harsh and high environments. How do I know we're the engine of choice? In the last 5 years, there's been 21 competitions to select the combat engine. The F110 has been chosen 20 of those times. We've only lost once in the last five years. That's how I know we're the engine of choice with the F110. Now shifting to our new products, the T408. It's known and chosen for its power and efficiency. It is on the CH-53K, the Marine Corps' heavy lift.
To quote our Marine Corps customer, Lieutenant Colonel Luke Frank, he said, "Horsepower is my weapon system, and the 53 K is armed to the teeth." It enables the 53 K to lift 36,000 lbs of payload. The T901. The T901 is going to replace the T700. I have to speak about how successful the T700 has been. The T700, we've delivered 24,000 of those engines to date, and 12,000 are still flying in the fleet. It has 100 million flight hours. It's proven to be a workhorse for over 50 countries and 130 customers. The T901, though, does it better. It's gonna improve the power by 50% and proven 25% improvement in specific fuel consumption.
The great thing about the T901 is it fits in the same envelope size as the T700. That means it's retrofittable back to all the thousands of Black Hawk and Apache, as well as we are the engine selection for future vertical lift and the FARA, Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft. We also see of applications that have already started talking to customers such as Leonardo or those competing for the U.K.'s next generation helicopter program. We see the T901 has a bright future ahead of it too. The T901 is a great example of leveraging commercial investments in technology that Mohamed Ali talked about. It has CMCs, additive and our advanced cooling, coupled with specific military innovations around sand tolerance or dual engine controls.
The T901 is positioned for growth into the future. With all of these engines, again, all of these multiple platforms, we have demonstrated that we have aircraft engine integration expertise, and we are sought out for that. We're also sought out for the performance and the time on wing, reliability and power and thrust that our engines provide. Lastly, we have long-standing customer relationships where our services have been keeping those engines on wing and readiness available. With this great portfolio of opportunity, the very strong backlog, we are well-positioned for growth. I haven't even gotten to next-generation technology yet. Let's go there. Let's talk about adaptive engines. Adaptive engine technology is a architectural revolutionary change in the architecture.
It is delivering revolutionary performance, and it is the performance that is needed for the future of combat in the contested Asia-Pacific environment. This is not a paper engine. We designed, built, tested it, and proven its performance, not just in our test cells, but also in the United States Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex. That testing has proven the performance that it has the high-value path efficiency of one of our commercial engines, as well as the proven performance of thrust needed for the next generation of combat. This testing, and you can see the data on the screen, we have proven through that testing that this application in the F-35 would improve speed, range, thermal capacity, and fuel burn, not to mention durability.
25%, up to 20% more thrust, and 2 times the cooling, the thermal management capability that the future fighters will need in the contested environment. We've worked with the U.S. Air Force, and we have proven that this application in the F-35 would save $10 billion net. Let me explain that figure to you a little bit. Net means they have calculated the savings and efficiency, fuel efficiency and maintenance costs already, including the development and implementation of this. That is a net savings. That is a net savings over the baseline. You may see other numbers out there, and you have to caution yourself on cost avoidance of not achieving the baseline durability and maintenance cost numbers. We're very confident in that this technology is going to deliver what the warfighter needs.
That includes in sixth-generation applications. This new architecture with the third stream and the advanced engine controls will be positioning us to compete in those sixth-generation applications. This is proven. It is ready. It is not a paper engine. In fact, it is ready and here and now. We are ready to compete to put it in the hands of the war fighter as quickly as possible. This obviously applies to next-generation. Let me talk about the next-generation business now. Our next-generation business, Edison Works, is our classified business, and it's an exciting time to be there. We've actually already won several programs in the classified space. Our revenue last year was $350 million.
Edison Works has a long history of innovation in classified programs dating back to classified programs such as the F-117, the U-2, the B-2. The Edison Works team is not developing just adaptive technology, they're also developing other classified technologies that for obvious reasons, I can't get into the details. Those have caused us to achieve these wins, those innovations. That is gonna grow this business through 2025 at over a 20% CAGR. We've invested beyond just some of these classified into adjacencies. We've done inorganic and organic investments to enable scramjet and ramjet technology that we believe will be critical for the hypersonics market. We're also investing in low-cost technology to enable us to be successful in the closed combat aircraft or UAVs.
Then, as Mohamed mentioned, just a couple of days ago, Paul Lemmo and I, the president of Sikorsky, announced that we are partnering on HEX, the hybrid electric demonstrator aircraft, which we see applications in, say, contested logistics or even ground forces with the United States Army. We have a successful portfolio in the next generation because we have deep engineering expertise that Mohamed shared with you. We have a history of fielding innovation on time and with the capabilities the customer requires. We are well-aligned to our customer's capability to deliver on the capability we need for combat readiness. We're pushing the boundaries of that innovation, and we're excited to do so with the customer's funding. In closing, the defense market is resilient, it's strong, and we are well-positioned.
We in GE Aerospace are pushing the boundaries of the step function change in operations for today. We are growing our U.S. and international customer base for tomorrow, and we're preparing for the future with those great innovations I talked about that can be shared across the portfolio, even back into commercial. With that, I'm excited to be part of this great GE Aerospace team and to lead the future of the defense business to make sure we deliver on that profitable growth now, tomorrow, and in the future. With that, thank you. I'd like to turn it over to Rahul Ghai, who's our Chief Financial Officer for GE Aerospace.
Thank you, Amy. Good day, everyone. Hard act to follow. I'm Rahul. I've been with GE Aerospace now for about seven months, and what drew me to this opportunity was to work for an organization that has shaped the world by making it smaller, and it is still propelling us forward just as it did 100 years ago. Yet there's plenty to do to make the business better, more efficient, more streamlined, and that sets me up for what I wanna cover today. First, I wanna share a little bit of the historical financials of the company and how this business behaves through various cycles, and what differentiates GE Aerospace from other companies. Second, I wanna provide more details on the 2023 guidance for GE Aerospace. Third, build on the medium-term outlook that Larry provided earlier.
With that, let's switch and talk about the background. What you see on the left side of the page is that in 2022, we delivered $26 billion of revenue. 30% of that came from new equipment sales, and 70% came from supporting the existing installed base. Not only are the ratios similar for both defense and commercial businesses, they are best in class, 2x some of our closest peers, and the number has improved by 15 points over the last 10 years. What drives this unique services franchise is the installed base that you can see on the right, which is up 60% over the last 20 years or so, and that's an annualized growth rate of more than 2%. That growth rate has accelerated since 2010.
Our growth on the installed base is coming from the positions we have on the major platforms, and it's a testament to both the technology and the customer orientation of this organization. What the services business does is it provides us resilience through the various economic cycles. Not only it helps us weather the downturns, but it also helps us emerge stronger from each of the recessions, be it 9/11 or the financial crisis that you can see on the left. Over an extended period of time, we've delivered mid-single-digit revenue growth and high single-digit profit growth. Even though this COVID-driven dip is one of the sharpest that this industry has endured, we are well-positioned to surpass the pre-COVID peaks on both the top and the bottom line, driven by one of the largest renewals of fleet in aerospace industry.
This recovery will continue through 2023, with mid to high teens revenue growth and more than $700 million of profit growth at the midpoint of our guidance. This builds on what we delivered in 2022, when we delivered 20%+ organic growth and 4 points of margin expansion. Let's talk about what drives the profit growth in 2023. The biggest contributor of profit growth in 2023 will be the improvement in our services revenue, which we expect to be up mid to high teens to 20%. With the shop visits up, internal shop visits up approximately 20% and the spares in line with the departure growth. The recent trends out of China and wide-body traffic growth are encouraging, and that could take us to the higher end of our services projections for the year.
We wanna wait till China and the freight traffic trends become clearer through the year before we revisit this outlook. We do expect our new equipment business on the commercial side to be up more than 20%, driven primarily by LEAP, which will be up more than 50% during this year, but the wide body and the regional platforms will grow as well. This volume growth will be partially offset by the negative mix impact from LEAP, which we expect to be about an incremental mix impact of about 1 point, and this negative incremental impact comes from both the growth of the installs that we ship and the increase in the quick turn shop visits that are covered by warranty.
Outside of this, we do not expect any material segment mix impact, and the ratio of our spare engines on LEAP to in new installed shipments is similar to what we saw in 2022, and the ratio of the overall spares to installs ratio is also similar to what we saw pre-COVID. We do expect that inflation will be a bigger headwind for us in 2023 than it was in 2022, and part of that is due to the structure of our material contracts where these headwinds hit us with a lag. The price increases that we implemented last year are gonna help us offset that inflation.
We're expecting to make progress on productivity this year through implementation of lean initiatives that are helping us reduce our non-productive time over time in our factories and increase the output per FTE. This improvement in our productivity will offset the investments that we need to make, both for supporting the LEAP durability that Russell and Mohammed spoke about, and also to create the next generation of technology. You put all this together, $700 million of profit growth at the midpoint on top of the $2 billion of profit growth that we delivered last year. In terms of mix, the net of price cost and productivity will be offset by the incremental investments that we need to make and the negative mix impact from LEAP of about a point.
Next, let's talk about free cash flow, both a little bit of history and what we see for 2023. First, as you can see on the left-hand side of the page, even though our earnings came down by $2 billion between 2019 and 2022, our free cash flow actually improved by $500,000 as we managed our CapEx better and reduced our working capital. As we look forward into 2023, we do expect continued improvement in free cash flow. This will happen from higher earnings and lower working capital. We are lowering our working capital this year by reducing our day sales outstanding and through higher service billings due to increased utilization that continues to outpace the growth of services revenue. We're also very judicious about our capital spending.
We are investing this year to create MRO shop visit capacity, both what we need for LEAP in the future, but also to reduce our turnaround times for our existing customers. Free cash flow will increase over 2022 and exceed net income for 2023. Now let's switch gears and talk about the medium-term outlook. As Larry discussed earlier, we are confident about the trajectory we are on and in our medium-term outlook. The pandemic is fully behind us. Air traffic is still growing. The defense spending is resilient, and our backlog is at record levels. This framework supports low double visit to mid-teens revenue growth with commercial up mid-teens and defense up mid-single digits to high single digits from growth of our classified programs and continued strength of our core platforms.
On the commercial side, our OE business will lead the growth from continued increase in LEAP shipments with our services business remaining strong as we expect our internal shop visits to grow high single digits between 2023 and 2025. Profit growth of $2 billion during this period, both from higher revenue and from improvement in margins that get back to that 20% range by 2025. This implies an annualized profit growth rate of high teens percentage during this period. We will convert these higher earnings to cash as ADMA headwinds abate, and we drive an improvement in our inventory turns. Let's talk a little bit more about the key enablers of profit growth between 2023 and 2025. Volume will be a huge plus from everything that we just spoke about.
Mix will be an issue as LEAP approaches breakeven. The profitability levels on LEAP are still not as strong as some of the more mature platforms and 9 X shipments increase between 2022 and 2025. We do expect that inflation levels should subside post 23. Our price increases that will be in line with our historical averages will offset that inflation and help drive both profit growth and margin expansion. We're expecting to make progress on productivity from the Lean capabilities that we are developing in the organization that will go deeper and all the projects that we are starting this year that will have carryover benefits for 2024 and 2025. That should more than cover any investments that we need to make for supporting revenue growth, increasing durability of existing products, and creating the next-gen technology.
With that, let me talk a little bit more about our productivity initiatives and our SG&A controls, because maintaining cost is a critical element for us, and we are focused very sharply on that. Let me start with cost of sales on the left first. On cost of sales, we're expecting to drive 2-3 points of productivity every year. On material, we are working with our suppliers to drive to, with value engineering projects, reduce our parts per cost. We are also implementing source changes to get some volume leverage. We are introducing new technologies like metal injection molding and additive to reduce price per cost. Price or cost per part, I'm sorry. Let me give you a couple of examples.
We recently did a source change on our metal fabrications, separately, we changed one of our components on one of the castings we buy. Both these projects delivered low double-digit million savings. There are several more like that that are helping us reduce our material costs. On the factory side, the lean capabilities that we are building are helping us improve the flow in the factories, which reduces our setup time or changeover time, increases output per FTE as we increase our productive time. It also is helping us reduce our scrap and rework. In addition, the learning curve on LEAP will be a huge enabler for reducing our manufacturing cost in the factories. We are ex-focused on it. This year, we're gonna run several Kaizen events in our factories to make sure that these improvements actually happen.
There on the right-hand side of the page, you see the SG&A. First, SG&A as a percentage of revenue will be lower in 2023 than it was in 2019. There's plenty to do on SG&A. We are managing our SG&A cost through three key things. First, we're being very, very careful about adding costs as revenue comes back. Second, digitization and automation is helping. Let me give you one example. We just ran five Kaizen events to improve our quarterly close process, and we took 95% of the time out in those processes. Over the last four years, we've taken 50% of the time out in our quarterly close process, and these improvements add up. We're also investing in our IT systems that is helping us consolidate the number of systems we use, driving us to a leaner, simpler, more cost-effective footprint.
The SG&A roadmap that I've shared excludes the dis-synergies that we are expecting from spin that we think will be in the $150 million-$200 million range. We are working hard to offset that by modifying the processes, the applications that we're gonna inherit from GE Corporate and adapting them to the needs of GE Aerospace. Plenty of work to do on cost, and we are all over it. Let me now talk a little bit about our cash flow trajectory. As I said earlier, we do expect to drive these higher earnings to cash, and we expect strong free cash flow over this next three years. What gives us this confidence? First, the capital intensity of the business. We have largely completed the investments that are needed to support the ramp of LEAP on the new engine side.
Now we are investing to create the MRO shop with the capacity. All of this should keep us within 2 points of revenue and CapEx as 2 points of revenue over the next couple of years. Second will be day sales outstanding. As we look at our day sales outstanding, after the spike we saw in 2020, day sales outstanding were lower in 2022 than they were in 2019. We expect incremental opportunities in 2023 and beyond. First, as we make our output more linear, that stops these quarter end spikes that come back and hurt us. Second, we are driving huge improvements in our billing processes. Today, there are certain places where there's a lag of about 21 days when the work is complete and by the time we send the invoice out.
We are working to eliminate that lag. Second, through the improvements that we are driving in our billings process, we are reducing the number of disputes with our customers, which allows them to pay us faster. Both these things shorten our cash conversion cycle and help reduce our day sales outstanding. The biggest opportunity we see is on inventory. Our inventory turns, as you can see, declined sharply post-COVID, both from the material shortages and from the need to support our customers in their ramp. As material shortages ease and flow gets a little bit back to normal, we do expect that the inventory turns will go back to the pre-COVID levels. In addition to that is clearly not satisfactory.
What we're doing is through the lean initiatives that we are driving and through the flow opportunities that I spoke about on labor productivity, they'll also help us reduce our inventory by reducing the work in progress and the raw material WIP that we are carrying in our factories. We are also working to implement pull systems with our vendors and suppliers, so they ship us material when we need them. That ratio will increase substantially over the next year to two years. Both these things help us reduce the inventory. I saw the benefit of that firsthand when I was in Greenville a few months ago, and I'm sure some of you saw that as well when you were there last year. We have a lot of work to do here to make sure that happens.
Plenty of opportunities on cash, and I do think we'll have a good next couple of years. Let me summarize. It's a great business. Solid operational and financial fundamentals. The growth will be driven by the macro trends and by the great technology, people, and processes that we have. Price and productivity will drive both margin expansion and profit growth. That will offset the typical headwinds that we see with new product introduction. We have a lot of execution ahead of us, but we are very clear-eyed about what we need to do. And as Larry said earlier, even beyond 2025, we do see a clear opportunity to continue growing the top line mid to high single digits, expanding margin, delivering strong cash flow, just as we've done the first 20 years of this century. With that, let me hand it over to Larry.
I'm not sure there's much more to say, right? You've seen the team. I think we've articulated the tailwinds pretty clearly. Technology over generations sets us up not only with this magnificent installed base, but an opportunity day in, day out, to be close to customers, driving that service revenue and all that comes with it. Poised to do even more. Hopefully you saw that when we talk about lean, we talk about decentralization. Those aren't just buzzwords, right? That's how we're running the business. That's how we're running the business better, and that's how we're also transforming the culture, which creates that flywheel effect. I couldn't be more pleased. I think we're clearly well-positioned commercially. The military team, the defense team, making lots of strides.
As we think about next year, when this is a standalone company, a pure play, it is a really attractive piece of oceanside property, one that we don't think is anywhere close to realizing its full potential, which is why everything that you saw this morning is front and center for us on a daily basis, so we can do that. We can realize that full potential for our customers and obviously for our investors, both those of you who are with us now and hopefully those who will join us along the way. With that, I think we're going to bring up the team, Steve, and go to a little bit of Q&A. Perfect.
Nice work.
Great.
Thanks, everybody. We're gonna take questions in the room today, not online like last year, just given we have so many people who have gone to the effort to get here today. We're gonna do that. Why don't we, as we're getting set up today, first question from Andrew Obin. Yeah, as I said, it takes a while. He takes his questions, take a while, Larry, so it's all right.
Jeez.
Just a question longer term. You know, if you look at a lot of your aerospace peers, a more traditional model is a balance between defense and commercial, right? Where defense has government-funded R&D, provides stability over the cycle, which allows to fund commercial. I fully appreciate that, you know, with the maturity of the CFM program, your service business and aftermarket is much more stable than it has been in the past, and you are probably differentiated from your peers. Having said that, what are your thoughts about GE Aerospace going forward and the evolution of your own business model now that you're gonna be a standalone company?
You want me to-
Yeah, why don't you take that?
Andrew, I think that what we wanna do is run good businesses well, full stop. I think we're fortunate today that we start both with everything going on in Russell's world on the commercial side, Amy's on the defense side, Ricardo has a big piece on both sides of that. I don't think you're gonna see us as an independent company try to shape the portfolio, right? You all can do that. I think we wanna create the best investable option in the sector. If that means from time to time, we might be a little heavier here than there, so be it. That'll be a function of opportunity and where we see growth, profit, and cash generation potential, as opposed to try to play portfolio manager and shape a portfolio.
Rahul, anything you wanna add?
No, I think-
Okay.
I said all I want to say. Thanks.
Rob, second row.
Rahul, I wanted to ask you what your assumptions for China are in your forecast, particularly this year and next year, in terms of the MAX, and if it starts delivering, does that reduce the number of CFM56s and so on?
Yeah. Let me start, and Russell, jump in here, on traffic growth first, because we started the year thinking we're gonna get out of the gate in China at around 70% and end the year about 100%. We were in that 80% range for the average of the year. As you probably, guys, can probably know better than we do, that China has gotten off the gate much stronger than what we had anticipated. You know, its January was around that 90% mark in terms of traffic recovery relative to 2019. The growth started much stronger in China. The China lunar year was in January this year versus, you know, February, that kind of creates a little bit of noise in terms of looking at trends in China, especially in the first quarter.
China is trending a little bit stronger in terms of departure growth than our initial assumptions, you know, 70% versus 90% now. We wanna see how that plays out over the next couple of months before we revisit that outlook. In terms of the engines, you know, I don't think that makes much of a difference for us in terms of our 2023 outlook. That is where we are on China. Russell, I don't know if you wanna add.
No, I would agree. I mean, like you said, we're seeing 90% right now, so we expect to be at 100%, as we get towards the back end of this year. We know what we need to deliver into Boeing, what they end up delivering and where is kind of on their side of the ledger, if you will. We feel pretty good about where it's going. We watch it each and every day. I'd say you answered it well.
That's great. Julian, front row.
Thanks a lot. Maybe just a quick two-part question. One is, when we're thinking about the Aerospace RemainCo .
We don't use that term.
Oh.
RemainCo .
future co. Whatever.
Better. Sorry.
You know, Rahul, you talked about that $150 million-$200 million of stranded costs, and everyone's trying to figure out, you know, versus that $1 billion profit number in 2025, what do you deduct from that on corporate plus stranded? Any thoughts on that? Secondly, the mix headwind came up many times for the medium term. Maybe just put a finer point on what you expect that to comprise from kind of LEAP OE and aftermarket and then 9X after this year.
Yeah. Let me start with the first question, Julian. I think that is a two-part answer. I'll start, I'll hand it to Larry, then I'll take it back for the mix question. In terms of the $150 million-$200 million that we spoke about of dis-synergies, that is not in the framework that we shared, right? That will be a deduct. Now, in terms of margin expansion, you can think we're gonna be, you know, a $30 billion revenue company this year. You take, you know, $150 million, that's about half a point of margin, right? That does not include yet anything else that can come from corporate. I think that is to be decided as we go later in the year.
Larry, I don't know if you wanna add anything on that?
No.
Okay.
I think that captures it well.
Okay. In terms of mix, Julian, the mix drivers and the impact and the margin impact will be very similar to the construct that we're seeing for 2023. As we think about the margin drivers for 2025, price and productivity are gonna be helping, productivity is gonna be a far bigger contributor to margin expansion than it is in 2023. That is where it helps us grow our margins as we offset that investment and the mix, right? In terms of mix, obviously, LEAP, as we think about the revenue growth, and as Russell said in his section, LEAP is kind of break even by the middle part of the decade, right? We go from losses right now to break even, but that is clearly a headwind, right? That is, we built that in. GE9X starts shipping by 2025.
You start shipping, you know, the volume increases by 25%. Clearly it's an early part of the engine cycle. More OE, no services. We do expect that 9X will be an issue as well. That is where we are. I think we have built the level of mix headwinds into our 20% framework that we provided earlier in the margins.
We're gonna mix it up a little bit, go to the middle of the room and the back. Doug Harned, if you'd get Jen right in the middle there. Thanks.
Yeah, just following on that. On the 9X, you didn't really go into it much during the presentation, but perhaps could you talk a little bit about the issues that you've had and the prospects for getting this fully on and ramping in 2025?
Yeah.
Mohammed, you wanna start and then Russell?
Okay. The issues we had, you probably talk about the some of the 777Xs in testing that Boeing, they were grounded for a while. I just wanna make sure I answer the right question. That's correct?
Yeah.
Obviously, facts speak for themselves. The flight that has resumed back safely, reliably, and we agreed on that with the Boeing team and with the FAA as well. I think that is speaks volume for itself. We have done what we always do here, which there was an issue, it was in testing here in-house. We understood the issue, understand the root cause, provided the right inspection and fixes, which was satisfying for the Boeing team and for the FAA, and the aircraft is resuming flight safely and reliably.
Russell, you wanna add anything?
I would just add, I think Mohammed said it best. Doug, we're just working to then manage the ramp, so working very closely with Boeing on the number of units we'll output in 2023 and 2024. We're in discussion on what that number needs to look like for 2025. As I said, we're doing everything to make sure we're focused on the durability of the program, making sure we're coming down the cost curve so that it's profitable, and then working with Boeing to grow the program. Pretty excited about it.
Great. I see Joe Ritchie over there.
Thanks. Appreciate all the detail this morning. Maybe my question for Russell, I just want one clarification on internal shop visit growth for the LEAP. You see it ramping in 2024. I just wanna be clear that that is profitable growth, that is out of warranty growth. My second question is really around 2023 and what you're seeing in wide body. I think that that is a pretty underappreciated part of the story, a good part of the margin story for 2023. I'd love to get some color there on, wide body shop visits.
Yeah. Two great questions. The first answer is that as you look at the profile we were showing, we'll see PR SVs that actually start 2024 and in 2025. Those will be profitable events. Yes, in terms of your first question. On your second question, if you kind of go back to 2019 pre-COVID, wide body revenues as a percentage of total were around 46%. They went up to close to 50% during COVID, given freighter operation was really growing during that time. We expect it to normalize back around 46% this year as well. That's kind of the dynamic. It's about half the portfolio is wide body.
We do expect, Joe, that when we talk about our total shop visits being up around 20% this year, the wide body shop visits are up slightly higher than that because, you know, Russell's right. The freight, you know, freight traffic is coming down, passenger traffic is going up on the wide body. That's the shop visit growth is a little bit tilted more towards.
You know, the wide body versus the narrow body. That is where I, you know, my comments earlier that, you know, the wide body is looking a little bit better than what we thought at the beginning of the year.
Yeah.
That kind of pushes us to the higher end of the service growth outlook that we provided.
Pretty simply is just that the narrow bodies led the recovery, so the wide bodies are coming back a little bit later. That's why we're starting to see those events now as customers are working to support those fleets. Maybe an additional point on top of Rahul's comment is that when you look at the amount of content on a wide body shop visit versus a narrow body, those tend to be higher. We also see a positive mix contribution on wide bodies.
Let's stick with. Let's go to the back of the room, if I could. John, have you got anybody in the back there? There you go, right in the middle.
Thanks, Steve. Thanks everybody. Was curious, how you're envisioning the transition from CFM56 shop visits to LEAP. You know, is that a similar mix, internal, external shop visits? Is that a smooth transition from overall volume?
I got that one. What I would say is that if you look at the profile right now of CFM56, and given just where it is over the life cycle, it tends to be more kind of what we would call an external channel being done by third-party MROs. As the LEAP comes into service and customers get familiar with the technology, we do see more CSA penetration than what we would see on CFM at this point in time. At the same time, we do have a view of kind of what we want that overall mix to be and are working very closely with third-party partners, what we call CBSAs, certified, or CFM-branded service agreement partners that are bidding on those efforts as well to be able to do that work in the outside shops.
The CSAs we tend to underwrite internally, we like to have inside our own footprint. One of the benefits of what we try to do from a capital efficiency standpoint is make sure that we're able to look at the mix of shop visits that we do through third-party partners so that we don't have to build all that additional infrastructure. We're working through that mix dynamic right now, but we have an eye on making sure that we build out that third-party network that's gonna be necessary.
I would just add, I think one of the things we're hopeful that we're able to do as we start, if you will, from scratch, is drive a lot of those standards that you saw in the lean example, right? We're getting real effect on the 56, but we're really applying those principles to active work around the world. We can lay that in from the jump here. We have a much better shot at hitting our quality delivery and productivity objectives as LEAP ramps in the aftermarket.
Nick, I think I see K ristine from Morgan Stanley right near you with their hand up. Thanks.
Great. Thanks. Hey, guys. Question for Amy. Amy, thank you for providing all the details on the different engines that you guys have won. Can you talk about the F-35 re-engine and milestones that we should look forward to with the adaptive engine? Should you not win that, what's the profile to NGAD, and how do you think about the opportunity there?
Certainly. you know, as you saw from my presentation, we're convicted that this technology is what they need for the future of combat. The presidential budget's coming out today. As we all know, that's kind of the start of the process. Obviously, Congress will weigh in on the timing of when the Air Force and the services need this capability. The Air Force has been clear it is a capability they want and they need, so it is a decision on timing, the timing of the F-35 program itself and the timing of the NGAD, and we'll look to see the funding and how we position for that timing.
We're very happy with the performance and that it is meeting the requirements they need. It is really a decision the nation needs to make on how fast they want the capability for the contested environment.
Great. Why don't we start moving our way back towards the front. Blair, I see somebody who's making a great effort, so let's go there, and then we'll come up to Cliff and Deane if we can, if there's time.
Great. Thanks. Jason Gursky from Citi. Question for Russell and one for Amy. Russell, can you talk a little bit about what your assumptions are on engines, excuse me, reaching their third shop visit, and what kind of risk you have there for early retirements, kind of what's embedded into your assumptions on reaching third shop visits? Amy, can you talk a little bit about some of the sun-setting programs like F/A-18 and what your assumptions are related to that? Thank you.
It's ultimately, and we could try to work with Steve to get you a more specific answer, but it's ultimately a blend based on the extent to which the customer, kind of the operation that the customer has and the amount of cycles that they're putting on that engine over its life. There's clearly some number that we expect to see three, some number that we expect to see two. I'll have to be able to give you a more specific answer, I can work with-
We'll follow up.
Steve to follow up with you.
Amy.
Sure. F/A-18 is still, we still see strong demand in terms of readiness. The Navy has been very clear, it's still a platform they're flying and need the readiness, so we still see the demand for spare parts and services in that regard. We've already factored that into profile, but the F414 engine itself, we see the demand growing in those indigenous capabilities that I spoke of, specifically with Korea. The production line will stay stable. Our F404, the legacy F/A-18 engine's actually growing because of the training market. You'll see growth in F404, you'll see stability in F414, and then you'll still continue to see some demand for spares and services from the U.S. Navy.
Great. Blair. Let's go to Cliff, and then to, Jen to Dean.
Thank you. Cliff Ransom Research. Larry, this is not for you. This is for your colleagues, please. I know you're only 5 years into this lean transformation, but can you give us any feedback on where you stand on the penetration of Hoshin Kanri through your organizations? Steve, that could include an answer from you.
I'm gonna forgo that, Cliff, till later. Why don't we start and go left? Why don't we start with Russell and Amy?
Okay.
Sure.
I would say we're in our early phases of it still, to be completely candid, but making progress. I mean, the ability to, in a very structured way, you say you're very familiar with this, right? Think about what are the three-year objectives, move to how do I get to 50% of those objectives on the kind of what we call the western side of that box, and define what are the breakthroughs that are required, is unlike anything I've ever been around before in my GE career. Much less than move it to the right and to be able to start to talk about what are the targets to improve very specifically in the calendar year, I find it to be very powerful.
I would say I think the teams are continuing to get their legs under them, so we've done a number of reps. We have a regular rhythm around the projects that we've chosen, where we really think that we need breakthrough capability to be able to hit our long-term objectives. I'd say we're making good progress, but there's just so much that we're learning about kind of the benefit of getting the reps on a sequential basis year to year to year. that's been, for me, probably one of the biggest eye-openers. You know, we've, as you said, started it several years ago. You do it, then you kind of do it the next year, and you realize how much better you could be and what you did accomplish.
I would say there's been some things that have been interesting to see, things that maybe we didn't do so well, where you kind of go back and say, "How do we approach that differently?" We continue to work with the teams and drive it, regular cadences around it. It's something that I have found to be one of the more fascinating things that I think we've added to the operating capability of the organization.
Amy, how about a quick answer?
Real quick. I would just say, I saw a lot of progress in daily, weekly management. The daily management on the shop floor, the weekly operating reviews using problem-solving and data is where we made a lot of strides last year. This year with Hoshin Kanri, we've created a lot of alignment. I think, it's the first step in alignment. I would echo, you know, we're really now, how do you take that to breakthrough? We're still early in that phase on Hoshin Kanri.
Mohammed can't resist, so go ahead. Russell and Larry, you have to wait till the break. Go ahead.
I have been. You call it Hoshin Kanri, but you call it what you want to call it. In the past 14 months, I have been practicing it personally. The amount of focus, because we are rallying the entire organization around these are our top objectives, it just, you get help from everybody. You get the whole team dedicated and focused. We have shown, when we have done that, we showed great results.
Yeah.
I, I...
Yeah.
I'm not saying that because my.
Okay.
It's quite all right. I just have to add to that comment. It is the first tool that I've seen where teams have asked me in the past over the years of my career, "What are we not going to do?" It tells you.
Yeah.
It absolutely tells you.
We're going to squeeze in one last question before break. Dean?
Yeah, a couple quick ones. For Mohamed, can you just clarify on the engine fix related to the Middle East dust condition, was that a fleet-wide fix or just for engines in that region? You put a cost on that. For Larry, any comments on the AerCap announcement, use of proceeds and so forth? Thanks.
You're talking about LEAP in particular?
Yeah.
For LEAP, actually the configuration management and what to give which customer, that is still in discussion. That's part of the work that we are doing right now. Some of the fixes would provide lift to everybody. We're gonna go provide it to everybody. Some of the fixes are only intended, and they provide only the primer wing improvements for the Middle East. Those will go, and we are debating, do we give it to everybody? Because that also gives flexibility of moving the fleet. That's some of the debate that happens as part of our standard configuration management process. We call it product control board.
There's not a lot of big retroactive fixed costs that we need. A lot of these things that Mohamed's talking about, they're quick fixes. They're not gonna be a big retroactive cost impact in our financials this year.
Exactly. I showed you an example. You probably saw in the GE90 the blade pre-fix and the blade after fix. That was part of my presentation. The normal human eye will not be able to tell differences between them. This is, These are small tweaks that make big difference. That's what this engineering team does.
Dean, I would just say briefly, thrilled with the first step here in the monetization, right? Both in terms of the secondary and the buyback by way of AerCap, but no change relative to the capital allocation strategy. We really are, to borrow from Mohammed a moment ago, quite focused on job one here, and that is to set up both Aerospace and Vernova as investment-grade companies. As you see us work through those monetizations, that goal will not change.
We're gonna leave it there, just given the time. Take a short break. Please be back in your seats, just about 10:00. Okay? Thanks so much, everybody.
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Good morning, everyone. I hope you find the purpose video that we just shared as motivating as I find it every time I watch that video. It is great to be here with you today. It's great to be at CTEC today. I was reflecting yesterday. It's been about 10 years since I visited CTEC, and at that time, when I was here 10 years ago, I was the CFO of the commercial engines business in aviation and shifted to power in 2013. Coming back made me reflect a little bit yesterday on how much has changed in the energy industry in the last 10 years. You know, 10 years ago when I was here, Elon Musk had shipped 5,000 cars. Now we talk about electrifying the world.
10 years ago, we were two years shy of the Paris Accord and talking about halting global warming at one and a half degrees. Now it's common dialogue. Today, we look at the world and the biggest challenge we have in front of us with climate change, but also one of the biggest opportunities to invest. It just makes me think about how fortunate I am, and I feel, and how much motivation I have to lead GE Vernova on a go-forward basis. As much as that 10-year retrospective can be interesting, I think the most important message is in that 10-year period of time, the last 12 months have most likely been the most impactful on our path forward. That's really where we wanted to start the discussion today. If we go to the first page and talk about our home market.
In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act is a game changer for the renewable energy industry, for our customers, and for our renewables businesses. If we start there and talk about the wind industry, the buying certainty that our customers have today relative to where we were 12 months ago, night and day difference. We see a clear path to add 150, 200 GW of onshore wind in the U.S. in the next 10 years. That's relative to 88 GW in the last 10 years. 150 to 200 relative to 88. Vic will come up and talk about the visibility we see on a go-forward basis with our onshore wind business. It's just not onshore wind.
The reality is the production tax credits with nuclear is gonna extend the life of nuclear power plants in the U.S., which is very good for our services business. Hydrogen, carbon capture incentives are gonna decarbonize gas faster. There's a lot to be excited about the U.S., but this isn't just about the U.S. either. The reality is when you look at the global events in the last 12 months, whether it be the continued extreme weather events, whether it be the crisis in Ukraine, whether it be us having a better level of understanding to the impact on the grid with higher renewables penetration rates, there's a lot of other changes in the market right now, and it really starts with a very material shift in how the world is viewing firm, fixed, baseload power with gas and nuclear.
We see that today in our gas business with our customers investing $2 billion in upgrading their gas fleet in 2022. We see that in our nuclear business with the huge expansion of small modular reactor pipeline that we see. This also isn't just about power generation, whether it be wind, gas, or nuclear. The investments that are gonna be required in the grid to drive the energy transition are massive. We see that shift most acutely today in Europe, where the European TSOs are investing in the grid both for resilience and for energy security. This is becoming a market where demand is outstripping supply, both of the grid expansion, but then the opportunities that follow with it, with investing in making the grid smarter to manage the complexity of the world at play.
A lot is changing in the markets in the last 12 months. Simultaneously, we're doing the hard work to set up GE Vernova to lead in the energy transition. If you shift to the right, that starts with the team. It starts with elevating internal leaders with domain expertise that have seen cycles in these businesses to lead. I'm thrilled to have Eric Gray come up and walk through our Gas Power business. Eric has been in the Gas Power business for over 20 years. We are very fortunate to have Vic Abate leading the Onshore Wind business again. Vic led this business from 2005 to 2013 in its most profitable years. Philippe Piron is crossing into his second year leading our Electrification businesses, and will come up and talk about Grid Solutions.
His background with undersea cabling at Alcatel and the symmetries that we see with the HVDC growth today create tons of great conversations for us today on how we grow that business. This isn't just about elevating our internal leaders. We're bringing in external talent to make GE Vernova better, to make me better as a leader. I'm thrilled to have Maví Zingoni here, our new conventional power leader. Maví comes from us after 20 years of leadership, more than 20 years of leadership at Repsol, Spanish energy company. Steven Baert, our new chief people officer, previously chief people officer at Novartis. Rachel Gonzalez, our new general counsel after three previous general counsel roles, most recently at Starbucks. Michael Lapides, our new head of investor relations after 17 years at Goldman. We're building the team that we need to lead in the energy transition.
While we're doing that, we're infusing the self-help that we need into these renewables businesses to drive forward. There's really three themes there that we're gonna talk about a lot today. Organizational simplification, structural cost out, better underwriting. In doing all of that in the context of lean and Hoshin Kanri. Lean with continuous focus every day. Still finding the space and the oxygen for the breakthroughs that take place. Now, if you go to the page that you can see in front of you with three key messages for the day. Starts with the fact that GE Vernova is positioned to serve our customers and lead in the energy transition like no other company in the world. For me to really best illustrate that, I think it's ideal to go to the markets that we're experiencing every day.
My first international trip of 2023 was to Japan. This is a market that has a big gas power generation fleet, but not a lot of domestic gas, and is determined to consume hydrogen ammonia. Our gas power fleet has 8 million operating hours with hydrogen and hydrogen-like fuels. No one is better positioned to decarbonize gas more than GE Vernova. In the end of 2021, we were tech-selected for about 2 GW of offshore wind. That'll translate to orders in the middle of the decade for fulfillment in the second half of the decade. Japan's having to revisit how they think about nuclear on a go-forward basis with their existing fleet and potential new additions. Whether it be gas, offshore wind, nuclear, GE Vernova is positioned to serve our customers throughout the energy transition. If we take a very different example, Ukraine.
We just delivered our first aeroderivative application into Ukraine to put the power gen at the place where it's needed in the country today. While we're doing that, we're planning to upgrade and enhance the grid over the medium to long term. Few companies on day one can put power at the source where it's needed, but then make the investments that are needed for the long term in the grid. Those are all the reasons I'm so proud and excited of what GE Vernova can be in serving our customers. Now, a few key business messages for the day. If we start with power, these are a set of businesses that are gonna generate a substantial amount of free cash flow for a very long time. These businesses bled $2.3 billion of free cash flow in 2018.
In 2022, they generated $1.9 billion of free cash flow. A greater than $4 billion improvement in free cash flow. That's not the message. The message is we continue to see huge opportunities to serve our customers better, to expand our margins and grow free cash flow from here. That's exactly what these power businesses are gonna do. On renewables, it's been a tumbling period of time. I sat on the stage a year ago and framed up the historical financial results were unacceptable, and we certainly weren't happy with our 2022 results. As I said at the start, these business teams are infused in the self-help required to fix these businesses.
We have the right leaders in place to run these businesses today with secular tailwinds that give us clear pathway to profitability in 2024 that we'll build on from there. If we go to the next page. There are a lot of numbers here, but what I wanna really focus on is the middle of the page. $107 billion backlog, primarily services. This is a business that generates about half of its revenue from services today of the huge install base. 7,000 gas turbines that you can see on the left. That's 2.5 x the next largest competitor. We're not just focused on what we built yesterday. We are innovating for tomorrow, whether it be in the top right-hand corner with our Grid Software business. 30% of the global utilities in the world use our Grid Software.
We continue to invest in new combustion technology for gas to create new upgrades and new optionality for our end customers. We're excited about what we have with a small modular reactor on a go-forward basis. Now, if we go to the page that follows. We play in sectors that matter. If we just focus on the spend in these three columns, it's a quarter of a trillion dollars a year between equipment and services spend. If we start on the left with conventional power, these technologies are the technologies that electrify the world today. Big install bases, huge services businesses that will generate a substantial amount of free cash flow for a very long time. In the middle on wind, the world is gonna double the wind capacity in the next 10 years. We are very well-positioned to lead in the markets that matter.
On the right, again, this is not just about power generation. We are excited about what we have with both Grid Solutions, expanding the grid, but also making the grid smarter, and the investments and the growth opportunities we have in front of us with grid software. We'll talk about all of that today. We follow on to the next page. GE Vernova is set to lead in both elements of the energy transition. On the left, this is about decarbonizing the system we have today. We still have over 2,000 GW of coal in the world running today. We have almost 250 GW of coal running in the U.S. Coal-to-gas switching continues to be a major driver of decarbonization. A dollar invested in gas today is not a dollar invested in carbon forever.
We will decarbonize the gas fleet with both hydrogen and carbon capture. If we shift to the right and the needs of the world to further electrify and think about a world, Tesla cars, pumps for homes, that is gonna drive electricity demand up by 50% over the next 20 years. That doesn't mean we grow the capacity of the electric system by 50%, we need to double it. The world today has 8,000 GW of capacity, and for 50% electricity growth, we're gonna have to go to 16,000 over the next 20 years because a lot of that new power addition is variable power, intermittent power that doesn't have a 100% capacity factors. The world today has 8,000 GW. 6,000 of it was built in the last 40 years.
In the next 20, we need to add at least 8,000, and some would say that's a conservative estimate. Huge opportunity for us to serve and lead in the energy transition. If we take that context and then transition to the financials for a few moments and start with the top line and our revenue growth. We come into this year with about $24 billion of our revenue case in backlog, about 80%. We see a very clear pathway to grow revenue low to mid-single digits in 2023, mid-single digits in 2024. This is on the strength of gas services. This is on the strength of growing our aero book in gas. It's also on the strength of onshore wind and the IRA volume starting to ramp up substantially in 2024 and grid growth. Vic and Philippe will talk about both.
In all of these businesses, gas, onshore wind, grid, real price momentum right now, because this isn't just about growth. This is ultimately about profitable growth. With that, if we shift to the next page and talk about the profitability of these businesses, we're gonna start with GE Power. The GE Power businesses in 2022 generated 7.5% op profit margins, but we see a very clear pathway that 7.5% in 2022 turns into low double-digit margins in 2024. That's on the strength of gas power, generating double-digit margins in 2023. That's also on the simplification of our steam business by 2024 as we complete our transaction with EDF, and the steam business becomes primarily a services business that's smaller, but much more attractive from a margins perspective.
On renewables, we will see a meaningful improvement in 2023 on the profitability. A lot of that is onshore wind, but grid will also be profitable with a pathway in 2024 to profitability for the businesses in totality on continued improvement and onshore wind as the volume ramps up. Grid's pathway to mid-single-digit margins in 2024 and the other businesses sequentially improving. We take that and then talk about free cash flow, and this is one of the more important pages in our discussion today. You can look at the 2022 and 2023 bars, and they look similar. The reality is the power businesses are generating a substantial amount of cash flow in both years. In both 2022 and 2023, a lot of that positive free cash flow is being consumed by the renewables businesses.
2024, we see a very clear inflection point in which the cash these businesses are capable of generating is going to grow exponentially. How does that happen? It starts with power. We see the power businesses generating more free cash flow in 2024 than what we generated in 2022. That's on the strength of gas services. That's on the strength of starting to see the first real ramp-up of HA outages. This is a program we're 10 years into, and we're really getting to the point mid-decade. As we've shared in the past, this becomes a real cash generator for us as the outages and that annuity stream starts to come 10 years into the development of this program. It comes with a simplification of the steam business becoming a core, high-margin, free cash flow-generating services business at the completion of the EDF transaction.
It comes with a substantial improvement in our renewables businesses in 2024. That's on the volume growth that we're going to see in both onshore wind and in grid, also from a substantial improvement in offshore wind from a working capital perspective. After I've talked 2023, I'll walk through in that normalizing with collections and disbursements in 2024 into 2025. 2022 and 2023 look similar. Very clear inflection point into 2024 with strength and power and a substantial improvement in renewable energy that's just a baseline that we can grow off of from here. Long-term targets. We're holding our long-term target for one metric. We're raising our long-term targets for two. The one we're holding, op profit. High single-digit target. That's on the strength of power getting to double digits.
That's on renewables being profitable in 2024 and growing off of there. We're raising our long-term target with revenue from low single digits a year ago when we were together to mid-single digits. That's on the strength of the secular tailwinds that we're talking about and the clear visibility we see to growth in both onshore wind and grid from here, along with the strength in our gas power services business. We're also raising our long-term targets with free cash flow from where we were a year ago at 80%-90% conversion to approximately 100% conversion per year, acknowledging some fluctuation with working capital and progress year-over-year.
With the benefit of having led the renewables businesses for the last year, I see no reason we shouldn't be running those businesses with the expectation that we convert at approximately 100% free cash flow on a go-forward basis. If we put all of that together and then talk about what we have with GE Vernova, it starts again with the secular tailwinds we have in front of us. Sectors we play in with a quarter of a trillion dollars of spend annually. 8,000 GW of new capacity that need to be added to the power gen system over the next 20 years. In doing all of that in an increasingly complex system that is gonna require real investments in the grid, both expanding it and making it smarter. Middle of the page, real opportunities to run these businesses better.
We talk a lot about applying the power playbook to the renewable energy business. A lot of that is lean and Hoshin, both on opportunity to expand margin and grow free cash flow from here. We have great products, but we're also investing in our products for tomorrow. We put all of that together, the secular tailwinds, the opportunity to run these businesses better, the product portfolio we have today and the investments we're making in tomorrow, and we see a clear pathway to grow the profitability of these businesses substantially while creating a company that is gonna generate a substantial amount of free cash flow for a very long time for its investors. With that, I'm gonna hand it over to Eric to go into more detail on our Gas Power business.
Thank you, Scott. It's really great to be here with all of you this morning. Gas Power will continue to drive strong operating profit and free cash flow based on a portfolio of solid fundamentals. With 70% of our revenue coming from our services portfolio, strong aero demand, and continued focus in lean and continuous improvement, we plan to continue to grow. From an install base perspective, you've already heard Scott and Larry talk about the fact that we have the largest heavy-duty install base in the world. Based on the fact that we expect demand to continue to grow, we also expect that generation will follow. Our services contracted asset portfolio provides long-term revenue, profit, and cash flow while delivering value for our customers.
With $45 billion in backlog and more than 75% of our contracts with greater than 10 years to go, this provides certainty in our revenue streams. We also enjoy a 70% renewal rate on these contracted assets. In addition to our contracted asset portfolio, we have a robust transactional business that provides parts, services, and repairs to the remainder of the fleet. Our HA platform continues to grow and provides critical baseload power to our customers. We've got over 15 GW of new capacity being installed today across more than 30 HA gas turbines, and the majority of these HA gas turbines will be added to our contracted asset portfolio. Between our install base and the HAs that are coming online today, we expect our 2024 HA outages to more than double.
By the mid-decade, we would expect this platform to be delivering $1 billion in both revenue and free cash flow. For our aeroderivative business, we're experiencing a natural tailwind, driven by the fact that this technology can deliver fast and flexible power to the grid. Some of our recent aero awards are going to support renewable penetration, adding grid firming, data centers, as well as energy security across the globe. Scott talked to you about the effort in Ukraine and the delivery of our TM2500, providing fast power to a damaged grid, a true testament of what this technology can provide. As we install more of our aeroderivative new technology into the fleet, we would expect our maintenance visits to follow, thus adding to our services revenue.
Let's talk a little bit about lean and the value of lean and what it's been doing for us in Gas Power. Safer for our teams, fewer quality escapes, delivering faster for our customers, as well as providing cost benefits to the business, SQDC, and in that order. Last year, for those of you that were with us in Greenville, we talked to you about our Live Outage program and our lean lines, and I'd like to provide an update for those today. Live Outage is a transformative process where we're utilizing core crews. Think about groups of individuals that are traveling from one outage to the next, building reps on similar scope, utilizing advanced tools, digital technologies, as well as resequencing the way that we work to provide more predictability for our customers. Allowing them to have an additional benefit to create more revenue through generation.
As you can see on the slide, the average number of shifts that it's taken across our 7F fleet as a result of Live Outage has been decreasing. We plan to add eight additional technology platforms beyond the 7F to our Live Outage program in 2023 and 2024. This year, the number of outages that we'll execute under the Live Outage program will more than double. On the supply chain side, to date, we've added 33% of our manufacturing hours to lean lines. Prior to this, we were working more in a batch and queue type process, where parts would traverse across one end of the factory floor to the next, only to have to wait for the equipment to become available for us to begin processing those parts.
With lean lines, we've got dedicated equipment for each value stream to ensure that we can add additional capacity, all while driving marketable improvements in safety, quality, delivery, and costs. While we're just at the beginning of our journey from a lean perspective in our manufacturing facilities, we remain encouraged that we've got additional costs and cash opportunities as we add the remaining 60%+ manufacturing hours onto lean lines. From a financials perspective, we're proud of what the team has been able to accomplish over the last three years, the best is truly yet to come. We plan to continue to see the improvements for both our services and our aero markets while we continue our lean and continuous improvement journey.
Additionally, through lean and pricing, we plan to continue to navigate the inflationary environment that we're working through today while continuing to add value for our customers. We plan to grow our top line. We will be a double-digit margin business in 2023 and 2024 while providing strong cash flows. Beyond 2024, we continue to see improvements and opportunities for our margins as we become more proficient and lean and drive those efficiencies. On the last page, I shared with you what we're doing with our lean lines. Our lean lines are more than just our factories in Greenville, South Carolina. We're adding lean lines across the globe. I'd like to show you a brief video on what lean has done for one of our factories in Vietnam, so you can hear firsthand from our facilities manager about the improvements that it's driving.
Our 8LG products is huge in size and weight with material dimensions up to 82 ft long and can weight up to 29 tons. Crane lifting used to be the only option for us to transport part during the 8LG manufacturing process. Crane lifting is a high-risk activity for safety. It reduce productivity, create more inventory, and can potentially impact the quality of the product. At the production line of header, one important part of the 8LG, we saw the flow was disconnected by batch production and crane lifting. We decide to address this by building a single-piece flow line without crane. We organize a Kaizen week and have two teams. The first team were tasked to create a standard work by enabling single-piece flow and balancing between cycle time versus takt time.
The second team was focused on a solution to safely transport 1,000 lbs of steel pipe from this station to another without a crane lift. We build in-house with our external supplier, the whole production line with fixtures and supporting system, along with safety approval before launching the line. In total, 13,000 crane lift has been eliminated. A single crane accident can be catastrophic. After improving the header line, half the factory achieved zero safety accidents in the last 12 months. We greatly reduced defect escapes, which could potentially impact customers. A single site claim can cost us about $500,000. Crane elimination and single-piece flow has improved the manufacturing lead time by 50% of the line. At the factory level, we have seen a reduction of labor hours root to a project.
This translate to project cost saving, which is about 20% of productivity improvement for header product. Crane lift reduction together with single-piece flow is a proven method to improve safety, quality, delivery, and cost.
13,000 crane lifts eliminated from our process at that manufacturing facility. What a testament to the power of lean and the improvements that we can make, first around safety, next around quality, our delivery, and cost. These are all the reasons why we remain excited about getting the next 60% of our manufacturing hours onto lean lines, such that we and our customers will benefit from these improvements. I'd now like to invite Philippe to the stage to talk to us about electrification.
Thank you, Eric.
Since last year, our transformation of Grid Solutions has developed in the right direction. Based on Power Conversion recovery example, we continue to focus on profitable growth to elevate the quality of our backlog while continuing our restructuring to lower the cost structure and to rationalize our industrial footprint. In 2022, our order intake has grown double-digit while improving contributed margin as sold, and we continue to streamline our cost base. We reorganized Grid Solutions around a decentralized structure with three full-fledged business lines: Grid Systems Integration, Power Transmission, and Grid Automation. Like Power Conversion, these business lines with their original sub-P&L allow to reach a higher degree of accountability and a closer proximity with customers, technology, and field work. Empowerment and entrepreneurship at the point of impact make the difference.
This year, we'll continue to improve our backlog by fixing remaining legacy project, applying lean practices to improve our on-time delivery, and obviously to reduce our lead time, and while continuing to capture high single-digit growth driven by Grid Automation and Grid Systems Integration with high voltage direct current opportunities. As you can see on the graph, Grid Solutions improved already significantly its profitability over 2022, and we are still in adherence with our original plan to reach a modest profitability and a positive free cash flow for 2023. I must admit that our assets are supported by an unprecedented market growth of the grids, transmission, distribution, and microgrids for industrial applications. The imperative of energy transition and energy security have induced an exponential need for grid expansion, reinforcement, and modernization.
According to ENTSO-E, the Association of Grid Transmission System Operators, for $1 invested in renewable energy, you need to invest $3 into the grid. HVDC is illustrative of this mega-trend. HVDC is about converting alternating current, AC, to direct current, DC, to evacuate the power and to transmit it on a DC line, and to reconvert DC to AC before connecting to regional AC grids. Grid Solutions delivers a full set of equipment and system here, excluding the power cables. HVDC is the optimum solution for submarine transmission, but as well to interconnect desynchronized high-voltage onshore networks, and globally providing 20% less life cycle cost than AC over long distance. The main reason being that HVDC systems have 50% less power losses than AC networks.
On the HVDC platform, as you can see, we deliver modular multi-level converters, transformers, switchgears and breakers, automation and control, and obviously all the system engineering allowing a secured real-time execution, and this with a latency of less than one microseconds. All product ranges of our business lines are mobilized to deliver a compelling integrated solution. HVDC investment, as it is shown on this graph, expected to grow by 35% per annum over the next three years, mainly due to the European Supergrid interconnection and as well the U.K. and the German offshore wind expansion. North America is going to follow very soon with future East Coast offshore wind project and interstate connection development. HVDC ranks very high within the CEO agenda of power utilities and transmission system operators.
From a buyer market, HVDC is becoming a seller market, enabling us to develop multi-project, multi-billion partnership with key customers, and this obviously offering repeatability and economies of scale for growing profitability. According to the International Energy Agency, until 2030, more than 50% of worldwide power investment will be dedicated to the grids. Grids, according to this institution, are not any longer a simple enabler but the backbone of the energy transition. Only three global players are credible to deliver such value proposition. NG Grid Solutions is one of them. I am committed, we are, all of us are committed, to win a larger share of this sustainable and profitable growth. Thank you for your attention. I will hand over to Vic now after a short video of a customer, NextEra Energy.
For nearly 100 years, NextEra Energy has been pushing beyond the boundaries of what's possible, transforming our industry to build a clean energy future. Now by setting our real zero goal to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2045.
In order to achieve it, we have to be able to rely on our partners like General Electric, that have helped us to become the world's leader in renewables.
From one of our first power plants to our first green hydrogen pilot, GE has been there. Nearly 20 years ago, NextEra Energy made a bold decision to convert a gas turbine contract with GE to a contract for wind turbines. Together, we saw something others didn't see, that renewables would become the low-cost generation source of choice.
We're also the first company to invest in their latest and best technology, the Sierra and Cypress wind turbines. Our partnership with GE Vernova is essential as we move towards meeting our real zero goal, and a key component of that is keeping costs down while we deliver real value for our customers and our shareholders.
While NextEra Energy's wind business is the most visible area of partnership with GE Vernova, the company also leverages a suite of GE solutions and technologies in other core businesses. From NextEra's state-of-the-art Okeechobee and Dania Beach clean energy centers, built with GE hydrogen-capable gas turbines, to GE's hybrid and digital platforms that support the company's solar sites and transmission business. NextEra Energy and GE are partners in achieving operational excellence.
With GE, it's not just the technology, it's the continuous process improvement and the innovation that have really helped us get to the next level of Florida Power & Light.
Through a partnership strengthened by decades of innovation, collaboration, and passion, NextEra Energy and GE are setting big goals and charting a course to a clean energy future for America. An America that's powered with sustainable, affordable, and reliable energy with zero carbon emissions. For NextEra Energy and GE, that future is now.
Awesome. Well, good morning, everybody. It's terrific to be here and, look forward to just giving you an update on the progress that we're having with our onshore wind business. Before we do that, I just wanna start by thanking our colleagues at NextEra Energy, and hopefully, you could see from that video just how important GE Vernova is, and our businesses in GE Vernova, when we partner with great customers like NextEra to really lead on the energy transition. With that, what I thought I'd do is I'd start with a slide that really just talks to how we're driving profitability in our onshore wind business by focus and focusing on our core markets. You know, Scott talked about the IRA and how we see that as a game changer.
On the left of this slide, you can see our view of what that market looks like in the U.S. Couple of key points. This is a first principle shift, next decade versus last. We see double-digit growth as we look at the next decade. Also, when you look at the value of the PTC, this is gonna drive the average market to be twice what it was last decade. Now you say, "What does that mean?" This is a great backdrop, but what does it mean to GE and our onshore wind business? In the middle, what I've tried to show is our view of our demand visibility and how that's increasing and increasing rapidly. If you look at the first three bars, what that shows you is our visibility of business with customers, commitments, orders, and tech selects when we entered 2022.
As you can see, we had about a half of our volume for that year in that category. When you look at 2023 and 2024, it was really focused more on opportunities than it was firm deals with customers. Fast-forward 12 months, what a difference a year makes. We enter in 2023 fully committed on our volume for this year. When you look at 2024 and 2025, customers are lining up, looking for capacity to drive their mega projects, as this IRA is really about transforming and decarbonizing the United States at a much faster path. As you pull it all together, and you look at the slide here on the right, what does this mean relative to our business performance right around the corner? Scott talked about an inflection point. What we see is we see a favorable mix shift in our backlog.
When we enter 2024, over 70% of our backlog will be comprised of the volume that's here right in this country. That business is being underwritten at higher prices, more competitive costs, because it's leaning into our core products and leaning into our competitive advantage as we deliver that here in this country. We see near-term margin expansion as a result. Let's just talk about our priorities. That's the market. What are we doing to really drive the business in a more lean fashion going forward? There's really three key priorities. Before we dig into this, I just wanna step back. Our view is when you think about the wind OEMs, us included, we've just become too complex.
If you look at the last three to five years in a market with declining PPAs, the PTC on its way to zero, OEMs have been really trying with faster product launches, more variance, more product derivatives to offset that. The reality is, the result of that was more complexity, lower quality, and higher costs. Our priorities, as shown on this chart, we think are instrumental to the turnaround. On the left, we're gonna lead with quality. To lead with quality, we're gonna reduce our product variance. What that means, you can see some numbers there. We're gonna reduce our rotors as a result from 15-4. The nacelles, which is the drivetrain that converts the energy, from 9-4. Towers, the variation in tower designs from 40-9. As a result, we're gonna end up with larger fleets of the same unit.
This is gonna give lower production costs, this is gonna drive a faster closed-loop learning curve, and really allow us to drive more robust innovation in a structured way. When you think about what that means to the supply chain, especially going into a volume ramp, it's a very strategic move for us. In the middle of the chart, workhorse products. What a workhorse product is, these are products that we produce in large quantities at scale, versus low volume, one-off niche projects. We believe by doing this, we can provide our customers the best economics, and our analytics show this strategy for 80% of the zip codes in the United States will have a cost advantage. We can also improve the reliability and the fleet performance of our customers' assets as we do this.
The other positive of a workhorse strategy is in a ramping up volume case, this allows us the unique opportunity to double our volume capacity with limited investment. Our third strategic priority is to simplify. We just see tremendous opportunity, and you've heard it all day today, but in our wind business to really focus and drive lean into our operations. For example, we're now focusing on bidding in countries where we have clear advantages. We define a clear advantage is where we have high product margins. This is allowing us to reduce our regional design variation and able to shed $500 million of cost structure as we enter 2024. That's a half a billion dollars worth of cost coming out of our business as we enter 2024.
This next chart illustrates, and I think this is a very interesting chart. This illustrates the importance of leading with a workhorse strategy and really having a best product strategy as part of our core to lead in this industry. On the left, this is the industry of onshore wind in the last 20 years and the next 20 years, and these are the terawatt-hours that are being put on the grid. To deliver on our climate change goals, we have to deliver a 6x increase in the amount of terawatt-hours that are going onto the global grid in the next 20 years. In the last 20 years, we've got to do that again only 6x the volume. This is a completely different problem to solve. This is quality at scale.
When wind becomes 25% of the planet's electricity, you have to think about fleets of 50,000 units, fleets of 100,000 units, not one-off niche projects of 1,000. At GE Vernova, we've taken actions to deliver on this promise. Number one, we've implemented a fleet performance management team, taking some best practices from our gas colleagues that you heard from Eric, where we're taking 200 engineers, and we have them really performing as the eyes and ears of the fleet, taking the data, taking the lessons learned, and getting that information from our fleet back into our design teams, closing the loop into our supply chain, closing the loop into our manufacturing centers. We also are starting every day at a staff level with a quality and safety meeting, this is cross-functional lean problem-solving system by system.
As that data's coming in, where we see the opportunities to improve quality, the teams are addressing that as a first priority. Third, in the third quarter of last year, we launched a proactive fleet enhancement program. We took an elevated charge in Q3 of 2022, and this was focused on specific components and some specific models where we wanted to make sure our quality standards were maintained so that our customers have the best-running fleet. To give you an update on where we stand on that, exiting last year, 15% of the medicine that we wanted to get into the fleet has been completed, and by the end of this year, we'll have more than half of that done going forward. Let's just wrap here with a profit margin walk to best illustrate what our actions mean financially.
You know, last year, Scott talked about it was a difficult year in renewables. Onshore wind clearly was a significant contributor there. Let's start from 2022 and walk from there. Couple of bars. The first one, which is a positive, will be quality. If you look at the situation we're in, where we're addressing the quality challenges and the proactive measures that we're making, we don't see that charge that we took last year repeating. You can see that as the first tick here. The second bar is cost out. I talked about our workhorse strategy, our focus on the markets, and our ability to use that to structure a half a billion dollars of cost out of our business entering next year. That's the second bar there.
The third, U.S. volume and the price of that volume and our competitiveness to deliver that on a cost-effective basis is a favorable mix for us, you can see that bar third. Fourth is just price net inflation. We're seeing margin expansion there as well. These actions that we talked about are going to result in taking a negative onshore wind business in 2022 to a profitable, low single-digit business next year. That's just the beginning. When you look at the market backdrop, we see continued margin expansion throughout the decade. With that, thank you for your time, and let me turn it back over to Scott. Scott, thank you.
Thank you. Thanks, Vic. I'd like to spend a few minutes talking about our offshore wind business. Offshore wind is our most challenged financial business as we come into 2023. On the left-hand side, we've got about a $6 billion backlog, and how that converts to revenue between 2023 and 2025. Below the bars, you can see that from both a profitability and a free cash flow perspective, 2023 is going to be our toughest year, especially on cash. That very challenged working capital dynamic is primarily driven from the fact that the volume that we're gonna ship in 2023 is volume we've already been paid for. We have disbursements associated with fulfilling on that volume with collections we received in prior years.
When we go into 2024 and 2025, we see that cash dynamic normalizing, collections and disbursements normalizing to a much greater degree that will drive a substantial improvement in free cash flow into 2024 and 2025, and a modest improvement in profitability also as we liquidate or convert the rest of the backlog to revenue over the next three years. We will see sequential improvement in 2023, 2024, 2025, but that does not mean that any of us sitting here today are happy with the economics of the $6 billion backlog. We've got opportunities to work both our product cost and our project cost, and that's exactly what we're gonna do. In parallel with that, if you take a step back and just look at the right-hand side of the page, offshore wind is gonna play a material role in the energy transition.
The capacity factors of offshore wind are substantially higher than other renewable energy sources. The technology moat, the barrier to entry is much higher. The number of OEMs competing in offshore wind are less. When you think about markets that need power dense solutions, think the Northeast in the U.S., whether it be New York, Boston, makes all the sense in the world to build offshore wind and connect that to the load demand in big cities. There's a market here. There's a growing market and a real opportunity, but one that we're gonna be very selective in, one that we're gonna focus on markets that we have a competitive advantage, where we can underwrite deals at better economics than what's on the left-hand side of the page, more profitable, and grow from there.
We look at offshore wind, and we've got a $6 billion backlog that we need to contain and manage and improve over the next three years in a clear growing market that doesn't require us to force anything. We're gonna look at each deal individually, every market individually, focus where we have advantages, and grow our offshore wind business from there. Nuclear, we wanted to spend a moment on. Nuclear is another dynamic in the energy transition that is changing drastically today. Nuclear generates about 10% of the world's electricity, about 18% in the U.S. There hasn't been a lot of new nuclear capacity growth in the last 10 years. Really the only place has been in China.
I talked earlier about the fact a number of governments in the world are starting to extend the life of their existing nuclear power plants, but there's also a sentiment shift towards new capacity additions in nuclear. The challenge in this space is the legacy nuclear projects have consistently come in over cost and over budget because the nuclear plants that have been built have all been unique and different. That's why we're so excited about what we have with a small modular reactor because it's smaller, 300 megawatt blocks of power that we can build over and over in a more repetitive way and drive down the volume cost curve and deliver products on schedule and on cost. On the right, we are very fortunate to have three strategic and funding partners for our small modular reactor in TVA, OPG, and Synthos.
We're focused on our launch contract with Ontario Power Generation. We see a growing pipeline of opportunity, and we look at this business as not one that is the biggest impact for tomorrow, but as a hugely important investment for us for the long term, and one that we're very excited about. Small modular reactors, if we go to the page that follows, is one of many innovations we are investing in today for our customers for the future. In the context of a page that has a lot on it, I just wanna emphasize that if you really are gonna lead in the energy transition today, you need to lead across all four columns: sustainability, affordability, resilience, and energy security. We've talked a lot about wind.
Eric talked a lot about gas, but I wanna go back there for a moment and just frame up our aero-derivative applications, and think about the fact that our aero engines today can consume very high rates of hydrogen. The world thinks about storage and zero carbon storage. Our aero-derivative applications running on hydrogen are gonna be one of the most competitive forms of long duration storage with hydrogen. The bottom row. We haven't spent as much time on all of these pieces of the businesses today. Think about our hybrids business. We've got about a $500 million business last year in orders. These are primarily inverters that support the solar industry. This is a part of the renewables business that I took leadership over last year that's been a pleasant surprise for us.
We see this as a business that's gonna grow another 20% this year, that we've got real opportunity to grow profitably into from here. Philippe mentioned Grid Automation through his discussion. This is a great business. $900 million of orders. We're investing and innovating today for the HVDC growth that we see in front of us. Mid-40s gross margin. This is a billion-dollar top-line business for us that's growing for a long time that we're incredibly excited about. In the bottom right-hand corner with Grid Software, I really hope the teams have an opportunity today to spend a few minutes with our digital leader, Scott Reese, in the interactive sessions we're doing later in the day. As Philippe framed up with the expansion of the grid, that's part of the equation.
As the system becomes so much more complicated, the grid has to get smarter for the bi-directional flows of energy with solar panels, with electric vehicles, with the complexity, with the extremes of weather. We are investing in this business and excited about it. Cyber, another great example. Throughout this grid, we look at the leadership opportunity that the world presents today for GE Vernova to serve and have a lot of things to be excited about. If we go to the page reinforcing our long-term targets. As I said in the first part, high single-digit margin expectations, unchanged from a year ago. Raising our long-term targets on revenue, primarily in the secular tailwinds we've talked about. Onshore wind and grid being the biggest drivers, but strength in gas simultaneously.
Raising our free cash flow inflection, expectations or conversion to 100% on a go-forward basis. Putting all this together and wrapping up the discussion, if we go to the last page, we've gone through a lot of content, but I just wanna pause for a minute and articulate that if I had the chance to bring this room to Malaysia and Indonesia, where right now we're commissioning 5 GW of gas plants, 10 HAs in those two countries, and everyone could see the impact these 5 GW of new power in Southeast Asia is having on these communities, those countries, and the region at large, the electrification of the world is a noble cause.
Simultaneously, if we just take a step back to last summer in Western Europe, extreme heat, drought conditions, and we must slow down the effects of climate change and ultimately reverse them. This is one of the world's greatest challenges, and with it, one of the world's greatest investment opportunities. Our GE Power businesses play in the technology spaces that electrify the world today. We see a clear pathway financially for these businesses to deliver low double-digit op profit margins, greater than 100% free cash flow generation for a very long time. We will fix our wind businesses. We talked about them today. The capacity growth that is gonna come is huge in applying a lot of the principles from Gas Power and power at large to these wind businesses. We have a great degree of confidence of what these businesses are gonna become.
As we've said a few times today, this is not just about power generation. This is the time where the emergence of opportunity for both expanding the grid and making the grid smarter are gonna change exponentially. I'm excited about these businesses, excited about the businesses in electrification, excited about the investment opportunities we have in front of us with our digital businesses. Again, for those that can join a little bit of the interactive session this afternoon, I look forward to the interactions. We're doing all that while continuing to invest for the long term, whether that be small modular reactors, whether it be some of the things we're doing with digital. We are excited about what this company represents and its opportunity to lead in the world. Secular tailwinds. Quarter of a trillion dollars to spend in the markets we play in.
8,000 GW of new power that needs to be added in the next 20 years. Real growth. Great opportunities to run these businesses better, serve our customers, which is exactly what we're gonna do. Leverage the technology we have while investing for tomorrow and build a company with a substantial improvement in profitability, a real free cash flow inflection point in 2024 that we will build off of growth from there. That's something that we're very excited to serve the markets and lead the industry forward. With that, Steve, I think we're gonna shift to Q&A. Team, if you come up with me. We're gonna just go to Q&A as we get set up. Give that a second while everybody comes up on stage.
Gonna give folks a little more time here, but I see the hands, and we'll start with Nigel and then go from there.
Thanks.
Can you hear me?
We can, Nigel.
Okay, good.
Yep.
Maybe can we talk about the orders you're booking today for 2024 and 2025, and maybe just touch on the pricing per megawatt for onshore? How well ring-fenced are we against further inflation shocks? My second part of the one question is, 2024 low single-digit margins for renewables in total. First half versus second half, do we expect to still be losing money in the first half and then hopstick in the second half of the year? Thanks.
Vic, do you wanna start on just the orders dynamic?
Yeah. Nigel, on the order side, couple of dynamics there. One of the things coming out of an inflationary environment, clearly a lot of opportunity. With the market, what we've really focused on is changing our bid validity timing. Shorter windows, managing the risk that way. With our customers, what they're trying to do is they're positioning 2024 and 2025. They would like nothing better than to try to lock in long-term deals. This isn't the time that we're out doing that. We're strategically positioning. That window of firm deals we're talking about, you saw really was heavy in 2023. That risk, we completely understand. 2024, we've got that managed. When you're out into 2025 and 2026, we're not really taking that risk on right now.
I think, Nigel, one thing to add when you think about onshore today, we underwrite our customers' projects and the pricing that we're able to present. When you look at a U.S. market with PTC at 100% or with a lot of our volume, 110%, because we're providing the local content, and where the PPA prices have gone, our customers can make good money in the North America market today, which gives us also conviction on where we can price and serve them on a consistent basis in which it's just a much healthier system, not just in the near term, but now with the 10-year clarity we have with PTC, really for the long term.
I think on the second part of your question, if I hit on that a little bit, I mean, I wasn't sure if that was exactly 2023 or 2024, but if you start in 2023, certainly, first half of the year is gonna be tougher than the second half of the year. We still have a dynamic, Nigel, where we have a mixed dynamic where we're shipping a lot of international, onshore wind turbines that are at tougher margins. Because the orders profile of 2022 in North America was pretty light, the mix is not ideal. I think what you need to lean into is it improves in the second half of 2023. As Vic framed up earlier, 75% of our backlog in revenue in 2024 is gonna be North America.
That is illustrative for how much confidence we have in a much more profitable business, second half of 2023 versus first half, and even more, substantially more profitable in 2024. Right. Nigel, your question also as was cadenced through 2024, and it's a little early right now, but I think what you're basically saying is exiting strongly from 2023, start 2024 strongly and just keep getting better through the year. Next question. I think I see Ron. There you are. In the middle of the room, Ron Epstein. John or Nick, There you go.
Hey, thanks. Yeah. Ron Epstein from Bank of America. When you think about the aeroderivative business and the separation, how do you separate the industrial gas turbines from the jet engines when industrial gas turbine business is really based on technology that's developed in the aero engine business?
Maybe I'll start, Eric, and then you play off of me. The reality is, when we separated the Baker Hughes business from GE, we created a joint venture with both our power business and Baker that is interacting with the aerospace business today, that already has a construct for how, on a go-forward basis, we will transact with the aerospace business. In that regard, not a lot necessarily changes. You've clearly heard from us today our enthusiasm for the aeroderivative business and really the role it serves in a world with substantially higher renewables penetration. There's already a construct on how that will work in a future state, and one that we may tweak and build upon, but it's not something that we need to build from the ground up.
I think that's really...
Yeah, that covers it. Andy Kaplowitz here in the second row, please.
Thanks. Scott, how do you assess the risk that underwriting just kind of takes longer to fix given you have to change culture to some extent? When you think about inflection in cash in 2024 that you're predicting, do you need that inflection early in 2024 to separate Vernova early in 2024? Would you delay separation a bit if cash is slower than planned?
I appreciate the question. I mean, I think, a few thoughts on the underwriting. You take some of our more complicated parts of the business and, offshore wind, HVDC projects, these are big billion-dollar projects. Candidly, we haven't closed a lot of orders in the last 12 months. But we aren't losing sleep on that either because the conversation we're having is this has gotta be the right deals, the right economics for the long term. I think we're doing a lot of teaching in those discussions on what business we want and what business we don't. I think we're making real progress there. I think in onshore wind, Vic, I think that's a good place for you to.
Yeah.
-maybe give a little bit of-
You know, it's a great question. One of the things In onshore wind as we turn the business around is there's a lot of process, but the question with underwriting is more that accountability. To follow a process but not have the outcome be where you want it to be isn't success, right? We all know that, but for a large, complex organization, sometimes that can get more difficult for the teams to see and pulling that to the top of the house. That's why I talked about the daily management, and I think this is where Lean is helping to change the culture, having a daily call on quality and on safety with the top issues. Nobody's allowed to move the cheese across the organization.
It is, "This has to be running in the eyes of our customer." I do think that's a big deal with the underwriting.
The cadence is key. Philippe, if you'd be willing, just in a moment, just the difference on what we're seeing with the HVDC projects that you and I would've looked at a year ago to today and how the market's evolving just a little bit.
I think that on HVDC, it's clear that it's still a project business, but there is some evolving conditions. First, the market, as I said. The customer, they understand that there is an imbalance between the demand and supply, so they want to enter into a different non-transactional approach. We are entering into partnership with multi-project over five to seven years with the same design first. This is changing a lot of things. After we improve the, as well our technology, and as well we push up a bit the pricing and the professionalism about project execution. That's make a lot of difference.
I think that's key. It's a common theme I want you to hold us accountable to in the same sense that Vic talked a lot about the workhorse product. A lot of what we're looking at with grid is, do we wanna chase the last dollar for six different projects, or do we wanna enter markets that we feel like we can do the same thing over and over again, and then really come down the cost curve? That's a lot of what we talk about in grid today and how we're taking our time to pick our next spots. It's not different than what Eric is letting gas. When you think about Taiwan for us, we're commissioning 17 HA gas turbines in one market. We're gonna do a lot more where we feel like we can get the scale to drive productivity.
Those 17 gas turbines in one country is exponentially worth more to us than if they were scattered all over the world. Just some different ways on how we're really talking internally about building a business that expands margins after we underwrite it versus the opposite.
Great. Brandon from Bernstein, then Joe.
Thank you. Question on the onshore wind business in the U.S. As orders start ramping back up with the IRA, can you offer some color on your conversations around services, attach rates, and maybe what your expectations are there?
Yeah. On in the U.S. market with a lot of the customers, it's unique in that most customers, most of the customers we deal with don't require or they don't want a contractual service agreement. They'll deal with us more transactional. To be honest, I like that. You know, when I look at our transactional business, it's very profitable. It's predictable in that the wear out rates, et cetera. Our differentiator is we have the bill of materials, we have the supply, and we can aggregate that risk profile across multiple fleets and provide with less inventory a responsiveness to get the part there within a day. There are some that also have service contracts as well, and we do that as well.
One of the benefits of the U.S. is some of these larger projects now, we've got teams that are next to these projects as they get built, and we can optimize our labor force as well there. I'm very comfortable selling equipment at good margins and having parts and maybe maintenance and upgrades down the road with Repower be our service stream, because that's the most value that we bring to the table versus just the labor at the, at the site.
Joe, at third row. Joe?
Hi. I just wanted to start on the onshore wind and the cost that's coming out at the same time that volume's going to ramp, and talk about the risks if that creates pain points for you or even lost volume opportunities. Secondly, just in terms of the field work that's going on, you talked about 15% and then 50%. Just when you expect that to be completed and sort of the efficiencies that you're gaining as you go through that.
On the cost, the half a billion dollars we're taking out, it's a great question. We aren't. It's not 10% everywhere or 20% everywhere. This is a very strategic simplification effort that says, 'Here's where we're gonna focus and here's where we're not.' To be honest, one of the ways that was prioritized was there are markets internationally where we make good margins, and there are markets internationally where we don't. Holding that threshold to help decide how we're going to focus and prioritize what markets we're gonna enter has helped us. Where we're not gonna be as active, that's where we're taking the cost out. Any facilities that we had there, team resources that we had there that were local, we're able to take that down.
The other is, I do believe, this gets back to the, I'll call it the NPI deck. This is where it's not just about spending more money in R&D. It's the right priority and the right investment at the right time. We did look at our deck, and we had a lot going on trying to fulfill all these markets. Cold weather package somewhere in one country, a different package in somewhere, another country, which was driving resource strain. By pulling that back, we're able to actually have our core design centers and communities of practice that are working a more strategic NPI deck that we believe is gonna position us through this cycle.
If I just give two very quick examples to make it real. We were doing NPI engineering, new product introduction engineering, and onshore wind last summer in 12 places, physical locations. We're doing it in four today. That's just bad planning to be working on the same product in 12 different places. Yes, we've taken out some costs, but we're driving a more productive, efficient engineering process in scaled centers of excellence. Vic, if you compare the people doing the work in the field at the wind farms, in the layers between that person-
Yeah.
at the customer and Vic today, there are four less layers than there was nine months ago. Neither of those in the investments or the costs that we've gotten out of this business are inhibiting our ability to ramp up in North America and capacity as the market ramps up. We're protecting for that.
Yeah. Just to your question on the fleet, some of the work that we're doing in the fleet. In the third quarter of last year when we had that elevated charge, that was a program, and that program has a specific list of turbines, models, sites, and remedies that we wanted to put in, some proactive, some monitoring and reactive. When you look at that program, that's when I said 15% of that is done last year. We'll have over 50%, but close to 60% by the end of this year behind us. We see that as something that is a hill that's we're climbing, but gonna be behind us quite quickly here.
Outstanding. Josh Pokrywski, Nick Kingston, right over there.
Thanks. I'm just trying to consider in onshore the magnitude of post 2024 improvements in revenue and profitability. You have this 30% increase in GW installations, big jump in price, big geographic mix shift. Should we expect, you know, kind of profit and revenue growth to try to track alongside GW installations there? Or are there still, you know, kind of a bigger, you know, bowl of productivity to dip into or other things that we should consider?
You know, there is tremendous leverage in this business with volume. If one of the things that we've done is we've really set up, set the business up for success here, is we're not counting on the volume, if you will. This is a very conservative volume case. When you actually look at the expectations of where the market could go, there is some dramatic upside there, right. This doesn't have what hydrogen looks like in the second half, what some of the agendas are relative to the growth that's needed. Getting your costs right and our model as well, we assemble. You know, we do make some blades, but we buy some blades as well. We're more of a system architect, so we can scale volume without a lot of CapEx and without the need for a lot more staff.
Our cost structure stays nimble, and as that volume goes up, there should be nice leverage.
It's one of the things in onshore that, I'm most attracted to, which is it's a very capital-light model for us, really. When we look at the next three years and healthy growth at least through 2025, we can lean into that growth with, our legacy market share percentages and grow the business and gain that volume leverage with limited capital. I would say it's really a first things first, let's get back to profitability next year. There's more capacity and volume we can lean into 2025 with limited investments. As the market continues to grow over the next few years, we'll look at being smart in that regard.
As much as I want to end on that answer, we're gonna have make room for a few more. Back of the room, can we... Thank you.
Thanks. With your focus on market selectivity for projects, it seems like this will be very impacted by the competitive environment. Just how do you expect that to evolve for the U.S. projects over time, and how well protected are you from others entering the market that might take lower margins? Thanks.
No, it's a great question. When you look at the U.S. market, first of all, look at the industry and, you know, some of the challenges Scott showed weren't just GE Vernova, they were industry challenges as you look at last year. Everybody realizes to deliver on the decarbonization goals, you need viable technology providers that can reinvest in the technology. That probably worked its way too far one way. It's in the process of working its way back. I think our biggest part of the strategy is we're gonna be a cost leader. We'll have world-level performance, but we're gonna have a cost leader, and a big part of that is the supply chain. We haven't talked about that much here, but getting towers and blades and nacelles to sites can be a third of the cost.
On average, it's probably 20% of the cost. How you're located and distributed throughout the country gives you a competitive advantage. Also, cycle time, your ability to fulfill matters and where your capacity is based on the season, 'cause different times of the year in a Northern Hemisphere country. That's why when you look at the North American market, we are very well positioned to be competitive on cost and we believe with our product position, we'll be in a good spot.
I think that sentiment, again, if we elevate to a Vernova level for a moment, across our markets right now. A lot of these markets are coming towards us. We've structurally sized our gas business, assuming 25-30 GW of new additions a year. Took $1 billion of cost out. Market was almost 50 GW. I make that point to say we don't have to force anything in gas. We're gonna be selective on what deals we go after. Philippe is the same dynamic in Grid today, where there is a massive expansion that's needed. We don't have to force anything.
In a lot of these businesses, whether it be wind, grid, gas, a lot of our internal discussions are, "Okay, let's get the foundation in place, get these businesses back towards profitability, and pick our spots." That includes which markets, and within those markets, which deals. Because with the trends in the energy transition at large, there's no need for us to force anything. That's really a core principle of how we're underwriting GE Vernova for today and for tomorrow.
Sarit, thanks. We'll take one last question. Julian in the front.
Sorry to end on a sort of stickier note, but just offshore wind.
Yeah
... again, just trying to understand you have the $6 billion backlog.
Yeah.
you know, you said you've been sort of paid for most of that, so I guess that's obviously a cashflow comment, and then as you get into 2024 the cash normalizes.
Yeah.
How are we thinking about kind of the assumption on your cashflow from future orders? As you said, you haven't got a lot recently.
Yeah.
What's the update on the medium-term sort of revenue goal?
You bet.
'Cause I guess I just wanna understand, does the profit improvement next year come from new orders that are higher?
Yeah
... margin, or it's just the existing $6 billion flowing through?
Julian, I think it's a great one to wrap on, 'cause again, offshore is gonna be a meaningful part of the energy transition. We've got a $6 billion backlog that we're gonna work our way through. The improvement we see, 2023, 2024, 2025 on cash, that's purely on the existing backlog. That's not presuming a lot of new orders and new cash generation. It's just for the volume that we're shipping in 2023, we're ahead of the progress payments at this point, and that will liquidate down and will normalize into 2024 and 2025. Our 2024 and 2025 existing backlog collections and disbursements get a lot better, okay? The profitability improvement is really on the fact that the volume in that existing $6 billion backlog has better escalation protections on the 2024 and 2025 than this first tranche we're shipping this year.
Through escalation, price improves. It's, again, not about new business, converting to revenue in this period of time. That really, to a large extent, is gonna be what we convert to revenue in the next three years, because this is a longer cycle business than what Vic has with onshore. We are getting a very positive reception from the market with our 17 to 18 MW Haliade-X variant off of what we're shipping this year. We're working that very hard, but we're being thoughtful about it. I think over the course of this year, there's a high likelihood we'll get tech selects for that next product and economics that we believe can be very profitable, but they won't convert to orders for a period of time. That may be more likely 2024, some of it into 2025.
There's not a ton of cash or profitability dynamics assumed with new activity in this period of time, 2023, 2024, 2025. The way we should think about this is we've got a $6 billion backlog. We're gonna contain and manage what we've got. We'll work to make it better with both product cost and project cost. We see a market that's attractive, but only attractive when we can do deals we like, and that's gonna. We're gonna be selective and thoughtful in that regard. As we can do that and we look into the second half of the decade, it's hard to not believe that offshore wind is gonna be a meaningful part of GE Vernova and the energy transition at large.
There's so many open switches, I would say, with offshore, more so than the certainty we're seeing with onshore, that it's hard to call a revenue number right now for X year. More the message I would have is we're gonna be thoughtful throughout this process. I appreciate the question.
Thanks, team. We're gonna go to Larry.
Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you, team. Very well done. I know we have tested your patience on the renewable side of the house over the last few years. As Scott said at the outset, I don't think we're necessarily pleased either. I hope what you took from Eric's presentation and some of the references that Philippe made, that there is a body of work, we call it the Power Playbook, which is highly applicable to what is underway, right? We're not done with that work in Power. You saw a number of examples where we continue to think we've got margin and cash improvement potential. Perhaps more importantly, you saw on Scott's deck the inflection point, right? We really think that the application of those same tools and principles really do set us up to run the wind businesses, run Grid much more effectively.
By the way, we really have a fundamentally different context a year on, given the IRA and the events in Europe. We've got work to do. We've got a couple of quarters here that are still gonna be sloppy in terms of the print. I hope you come away with the optimism that we have, the confidence as well. Coming out of just the operating reviews we had but a few weeks ago with these same teams where we went even deeper and walked out of those sessions with the view that inflection point is very much under construction, and we're gonna be poised to be the leader in the energy transition. Really a unique investment proposition as the world looks to decarbonize and electrify.
We're excited about it all the more with the new additions to the team here in the front row. That's Vernova. I think you've heard the story on Aerospace, an exceptional franchise in every possible way. We don't take that for granted. There's a lot to work with here, and we think we're on our way to realize the full potential of this business as we move forward. Just to wrap it up, again, there are just the two of us now. We're proud of what's happening at HealthCare. We've learned a lot over the last year as to how to set up both Vernova and Aerospace successfully. Some of those lessons are portable.
There'll be some new lessons for sure, but I think the underlying operational improvements, the strategic context for both businesses really set us up to be in a position next year, early next year, right, for these two businesses to be out on their own and represent, I think, significant investment plays for everybody with an interest in the aerospace world, let alone the energy transition. Again, we appreciate all your time and commitment. I know it's been a long morning, but hopefully a worthwhile investment of time. Gonna call Steve and Carolina up. Scott's gonna come back up as well, and we'll take a few minutes here for Q&A, and then we'll break for lunch and tours.
Why don't we start off with Nicole? I think that's you. There you are.
Yeah, it's me. Thanks, guys. Maybe we could just talk a little bit about corporate expenses. I think this question is probably for Carolina, you know, as we try to come to a free cash flow estimate for each business, like how you're thinking about corporate between the two entities. Thank you.
Yes. I think it's probably best to take a step back and let's start with where we landed 2021. We had $1.2 billion of corporate expense in 2021. What we're talking about now in 2023, we expect to halve that number. In 2023, we expect to see $600 million of corporate costs. For next year with the two standalone companies, each of the companies are expected to have between $150 million-$200 million of standalone public company costs. If you look at what will be left of corporate, we'll have about $400 million of legacy costs. The majority of that will be EHS, and as we go through the year, we'll work on how we allocate that between the two entities. I would add to that the cash aspect.
Today the companies are reported as segments, and they will be full companies. You'd have the, sort of the P&L effect that I talked about in EBIT, and you add to that the interest cost as well as the tax costs. All of that together then would also translate into a cash impact. On top of that, I would say it's really, some pay-as-you-go pension cash out, that you'd see. Finally, I'll say, that's the starting point for the two companies, and I do know that Scott, and the fellow that runs Aerospace are planning to continue to work down that cost.
Setting up a little competition here, Scott.
Healthy.
Who can take that down faster?
Who's got the lower corporate cost in 2025?
Andrew, front row.
We'll have fun with that.
Yeah, just a question on balance sheet liabilities. A, can you just comment on long-term care? A, I think there are some accounting changes coming, if you know the range, at this point. B, what's the thinking, right, as you sort of separate the two assets, what's the thinking on timing on sort of closing the book on long-term care at G? Thank you.
Why don't I start with the financial part of this. Basically, you have two different accountings. You have Well, you have the accounting that is in the P&L on the balance sheet, and you also have the cash impact. What has been key for us is to continue to manage the business better. What we see is with the first principles and the new accounting, we still expect to be positive. Also the CFT that we just finished was also, as expected, a positive, which basically means that we only have one payment left to go, $1.8 billion early 2024, and then we will be done with all the cash flows on insurance.
We continue to manage, as we've talked about before, both the asset side and the liability side, including claims management, different areas of even leaning out the processes within that business to continue to reduce risk. That's really key for us. Interest rates help a little bit as well, but again, it's really running it better that matters.
Andrew, the second part of that question, if I can take that. I don't think we're in a different posture today than we have been over the last several quarters, right? Between the massive deleveraging and a lot of the controls and improvements that Carolina just referenced, that is a stable situation. It's not something we necessarily covet for perpetuity, but I don't think there's a transaction that is necessarily imminent. I know we're in a much better position to have a shareholder-friendly conversation with potential counterparties. It'll play out and, you know, if we get to a point where if there's something there that makes sense, we'll obviously let everybody know, but I wouldn't necessarily kind of post a sentry hour by hour waiting for that to happen.
Great. I think I see Seth in the back. Is that right?
You got better eyesight than I do.
Ooh.
Hey, good morning.
Morning.
Larry, I don't know if it's premature for this, but as you think about capital deployment for aerospace, if you look at the major A&D companies in the U.S. over the past decade, they pretty much tended to give back all of their cash to shareholders. How do you think about that for GE Aerospace going forward?
Seth, I would say, by the way, welcome. We're pleased to have you here. I think that's gonna be at the top of the agenda for the new board, right? We're gonna work through this year, the work we did last year, creating a HealthCare board. We'll at some point announce the board that Scott's gonna have, the board we'll have here at Aerospace, and I think that'll be really at the top of the agenda for Aerospace, similar to Vernova, I would add, right? We don't wanna get ahead of that. Again, Job wants to make sure both companies are strong, independent, standalone, investment-grade entities. Then I think as we'll as we move forward from there, we'll sort through the capital allocation schemes. It's half premature, but critical.
Cliff, I see another question here, Blair.
Scott, between COVID and breaking my neck, welcome back. I'm a little late. Carolina, I asked questions about continuous improvement and policy deployment before. Can you talk about the hardest part of implementing this methodology, this cultural change in your part of the business? What are the major lessons that you've learned, the hardest parts, the stuff that hasn't worked well during this initial, this initial transition period?
I would start by saying, and you know this, but a lot of people see lean as something that only, or that is mainly working in a manufacturing environment. What I would say is it works in all parts of a business, including in finance. For us, it's really been about how do you, as a finance organization, better support the business? As we transform GE businesses, how do we then transform GE Finance to better support? It was a lot about how do we have the right set of numbers in detail, decentralization at the right level, going to 30 P&Ls from five, but also the cadence and the frequency that you heard the team members talk about. Having monthly numbers and sometimes even weekly numbers to be able to drive decisions better.
What is always hard is when you drive this kind of change at this scale. It's really important to take the time to get the team, not only to understand the what, but also sort of the how and the why, and taking that time to really have the team align through Hoshin, why we're doing this, how it's gonna help the business, and then get going. Go slow to go fast. That's probably what we learned.
Thanks.
Thank you. I believe you guys said there was about a one point impact on air aviation margins in 2023 from mix. I was just wondering what the 20% guidance in 2025 assumed. Just trying to get a sense for where the margin profile of that business could go, because, you know, revenues are going above 18, 19 levels. There's a lot of productivity initiatives in place, but there still seems to be some upside to that 21 kind of prior peak. Thank you.
Well, I think what we...
Yeah.
Can I take that?
Yeah, of course.
I think what we said was that in 2025, we think we're gonna be in that 20% zone, right? We should be, we'd be close. We're gonna need to see margin expansion each step along the way. As we think about a post-25 world, where we're growing at a mid to high single-digit level, we think there's margin accretion from there. We're not ready. We thought a little bit of the news today was to red circle 20%. We're not quite ready to kinda go beyond that today, maybe tomorrow. You know, first things first. The 100 basis points of margin pressure is really the year-over-year pressure that we're gonna see as a result of LEAP.
There's about 2.5 points in year on an absolute basis, both from an OE and from a services perspective, back to what Russell was tagging. As we continue down the cost curve on new units, as we drive more productivity, post the warranty shop visits, that's when you're really gonna see LEAP begin to contribute. That's a latter part of the decade dynamic. Thank you.
Last question from Andy, up front.
Larry, Carolina, just thinking about how much cash is locked up in working capital. You know, if you think about aviation, I think you guys showed the chart around inventory turns, you know, and the possibilities, but you also have very high growth. You know, you've got the LEAP doing its thing. How do you think about, is there any way to quantify or think about how much cash and, you know, the supply chain issues that are out there? You know, are we past the most acute sort of point in that?
Andy, thank you for that question. I know we're running up on time, or I could spend 10 minutes going through this, as most of you in this audience know. When it comes to working capital, I would start by saying sort of the work we are doing is starting to sort of get traction. In 2022, with the supply chain pressures, that did have an impact on our working capital and the efficiencies. One of our biggest priorities is driving improvement in linearity. Through that, you do get the improvement also on working capital. I would say the biggest areas of opportunities are really in inventory, and then also you see DSO or therefore, receivables sort of coming as a secondary to that as you drive improved linearity.
We're talking about, you know, one turn of inventory is about $4 billion of free cash. It's certainly worth getting up every morning and focus on improving that linearity.
Anything you wanna add on that?
I think we're at time.
We are. All right. Let's If I could ask everybody to just hold for 1 second as I walk through the tour logistics and lunch right now. For those on the webcast, we've finished the formal presentation. In terms of the afternoon, lunch is ready. It's upstairs, where you came in. After lunch, tours are gonna begin promptly just after 12. Look on your badge. You all have a number on your badge labeled 1 to 8. If you're in group 1 to 4, your tours will start here at CTEC. If you're in 5 to 7, you're gonna leave CTEC for the Evendale campus first. There'll be folks on your way out with signs with your group number, so you can't miss it.
Thank you for your time, your good questions, and your investment. We look forward to talking to you and working with you in the future. Thanks, everybody.
Thank you.