Good morning, everyone. I'm Martin Yang from Oppenheimer. Today, we have the pleasure to be joined by Nick Woodman, the CEO of GoPro, and Brian McGee, the CFO of GoPro. Before we start our fireside chat with management, Brian has some safe harbor statement to share.
Thanks, Martin. Yeah, before we get started, I'd like to remind everyone that our remarks today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements and all other statements that are not historical facts are not guarantees of future performance, and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially. Additionally, any forward-looking statements made today are based on assumptions as of today. This means that results could change at any time, and our commentary about business results and outlook is based on information available as of today's date. We do not undertake any obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.
Information concerning the company's risk factors is available in its most recent annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2023, which is on file with the SEC and as updated in future filings. Turn it back to you, Martin.
Thank you, Brian. First question is for Nick. At our conference last year, GoPro just started a renewed retail-first go-to-market strategy, where you're rolling out the product into more stores. Could you start update by giving us, you know, what your progress are, and where do you stand now after almost a year?
Sure. Yeah, that was May 2023 that we began our rollout of GoPro into an expanded number of doors globally to improve our brand presence and reach. That included not only opening new doors, but also refreshing our merchandising and brand presentation in a majority of the doors that we're already selling in. Big brand refreshes with the, you know, the likes of Best Buy and moving back into Fnac in France, and top retailers around the world that we pared down from during COVID. We went from about 33,000 doors pre-COVID to about 19.5-20,000 doors during COVID. And we're now back up to approximately 24,000 doors, a tick over.
We added 800 new doors in the second quarter alone, and we're targeting an additional 3,000-5,000 new doors by the end of 2025. So the expansion is going well. As we shared in previous earnings calls, we've had a very, you know, strong reception from retailers that are excited to see us coming back into retail with the same commitment and brand presence that we had pre-COVID. Sell-through at retail is up markedly in the regions globally, and so we're feeling really good about it. This is a part of our greater long-term strategy to also expand our product lineup to, you know, better serve consumers in a broader range of markets with more tailored and specialized products than we do today.
Of course, having a broader distribution network and stronger presence in store sets us up really well for the introduction of those products when we launch them.
Thanks, Nick. And then, in the context of your upcoming 360 cameras and also the motorcycle helmet company you acquired, you know, how do we think about... Should we think about the distribution strategy for new products in new categories and also in new SKUs in your lineup?
Well, 360 is not new to us. We actually pioneered the consumer 360 category, first with Fusion, for those of you who can remember that 360 way back when. Then with the MAX camera that we launched, I believe it was 2019. We established the market, really grew it with the MAX camera, and then we went into cost, OpEx reduction mode in COVID, and that stalled out the development of our 360- program for a bit, during which time, you know, MAX continued to sell really well, and the market grew significantly. We estimate that the 360-category last year was about 500,000 units. This year is about 800,000 units, somewhere in there, 700,000-800,000 units.
Next year, we're forecasting the entire 360 market to be in the neighborhood of 1 million units for 2025. And that sets us up for a really great opportunity to come back into the market strong with a really good product, MAX 2. We think we can recoup significant share in the market. And, you know, it's important to note that our retail distribution, you know, all 25,000 retailers that we have today are set up to sell the MAX 2 camera when we launch it, so no new channel development needed for that. And just as a reminder for investors, as we shared on our earnings call last week, we have very, very little revenue in 2024 from 360 cameras.
We sold our last MAX 360 camera inventory into the channel in Q4 of 2023. And the only revenue that we've recognized in 2024 in 360 cameras is via our website, which the numbers weren't big, and we're now sold out of the MAX camera on gopro.com. So, the negative to that story is, well, okay, that's a pretty significant missed opportunity due to our MAX 2 camera launch being pushed until 2025, as we shared on last week's call. The silver lining is it's a significant opportunity for top line and bottom-line growth in 2025 when we do launch the MAX 2 camera. And again, our brand is very well known and respected in 360.
Our distribution channels are set up for the launch of MAX 2. So we're excited with our go-to-market strategy to have MAX 2 and 360 be a significant growth opportunity for GoPro, not only in 2025, but, but going forward as well.
Thanks, Nick. Aside from MAX delay, on recent calls, you cited other, macro reasons that contributed to the weaker outlook for 2024. Can you maybe just highlight some of the factors, you were referencing in more details?
Sorry, I might have had to get off of mute. Maybe I'll start, and Nick can join. You know, some of the more macro factors within, you know, the economy, of course, we've seen that in the U.S. markets. I think the door expansion that we've seen has mostly been in Europe, and I think that expansion in doors, excuse me, has offset the economic factors going on in Europe, and so we've seen either growth there or kind of neutral. So we feel pretty good about that. That shows you that the strategy to continue to increase doors is the right one because it's obviously offsetting kind of what's happening on the consumer and in the economy, and we see that for sure in Europe.
The economy in China has been pretty challenging. We were off year-over-year at 618. And that's usually a pretty big event, and it took considerable, you know, effort and discounting even to move product there. We're not alone. I think that was pretty well reported across social on the China market. And then in addition, I think in the China market specifically, we see more consumers moving to local brands versus foreign brands. That's definitely been a trend. Again, that's not just a GoPro phenomenon. It's. We've seen that with other brands as well, and not just U.S. brands, either, Europe, Japan, et cetera.
So those have definitely been, you know, some headwinds, I think, and then we've seen currency, the U.S. dollar strengthen again in China and in Japan, cost us probably about 500 basis points in margin in the second quarter. So those have definitely been some headwinds, and the dollar's remained strong against other currencies, too, which compared to, gosh, back in 2021, early 2022, if the dollar was at those levels, you know, our revenue would be about $50 million more, and our profit about the same. So, the dollar's definitely been a headwind, since about 60% of our revenue comes in international markets.
Mm-hmm. Thanks, Brian. So on the topic of China, this question just came up from the audience. There are talks of a DJI ban in the United States, and in case such ban happens, could that make you go back to the drone category again a chance?
I would say never say never. You know, as we've shared on previous earnings call, GoPro's vision is to establish itself as the world's leading alternative capture company, enabling capture solutions that go beyond the phone, that go beyond traditional cameras, specialized solutions that help people document their life experience and/or create content if they're a professional content creator, an influencer, film, television, production studio, what have you. There's a growing, and we believe, everlasting need for alternative forms of capture. And we make some of the most versatile, rugged, durable cameras in the world. But we've largely been successful in growing this global brand as a hero camera company, and when you think about that, that's great, but it's also limiting. We're not realizing...
We have not realized the full potential of the brand and what it represents to people and the whole opportunity of alternative capture as a business. We haven't realized that by having so much of our brand and our business revenue concentrated in just the HERO camera line. Now we have been successful outside of the HERO camera in 360 with the MAX camera, and we're very much looking forward to the launch of MAX 2. And we've been successful with other products in the form of subscription, now over 2.5 million subscribers strong, really impressive attach and retention rates.
Brian can speak a little bit about that business from a financial perspective, but we're confident that we can be successful outside of just the HERO camera because we've done it. And that's really what the long-term roadmap and strategy for scaling our not only our TAM but of course our business within that TAM is through a range of diversified, specialized products. Could those products include a drone in the future? I would say never say never, but in the near to mid-term, you know, drone program is it's extremely expensive. Let's be real. You have to make significant investments. We're only interested in entering categories where we can bring differentiation and innovation. That's where you can have more pricing power, that's where you can generate margin.
As we shared on the last call, we are extremely focused on reducing OpEx going forward, to ensure profitability in 2025 and beyond. That means making extremely smart priorities as to what products we're gonna develop and what timeline, so that we can deliver those products to market in a profitable fashion. I cannot stress enough how focused we are on this and how committed we are to bringing OpEx down, to operate GoPro as a profitable company. So in the near to mid-term, I think it would be pretty challenging to get back into the drone market and do an effective job at delivering competitive product.
It, it would be much more effective and efficient to partner up with another company, which is a potential to, you know, leverage our brand to help another company that's looking to grow, share, and to make a name for itself, not only in North America, but global market. But let's be real. It's, it's important that investors understand how focused we are on OpEx reductions going forward to operate as a profitable company.
Got it. Since you make a quick reference on Brian and subscription business, let's talk about that. Can you... Let's first, first maybe review, you know, the current state of subscription business, and where are we on a year-over-year basis for both, subscription revenue and subscribers?
Yeah, Martin, that's a good lead-in. You know, in the last quarter, our subscription revenue was $26 million. It was up 8% year-over-year. About half of that came from new subscriber growth, which is about 4% year-over-year, and the other 4% was due to growth in average revenue per user or ARPU. The ARPU side is going up because our retention rates, our aggregate annual retention rate was 68%. So that's up 7% year-over-year. So we're seeing really good retention, year one, year two, and it's very consistent, and so we're seeing subscribers stay in the program for a longer period, and that has definitely been. We're seeing that increase in ARPU as a result.
Well, we ended the year at, or the quarter at 2.53 million subscribers. We think we'll end somewhere around 2.6 million subscribers by the end of this year. And our current subscriber base is about $125 million of annual recurring revenue. So, that's been a real bright spot for us, you know, on the business, and it's also our most profitable product line. It's over 70% gross margin and better than 50% operating profit for the company. So, that continues to be a financial engine for the company. I said that a couple of years ago. It continues to be, which is exciting.
So, we're also seeing growth in not just, you know, our base-level subscription, but the Premium Plus, which we've just offered. We're now, I think, over 40,000 subscribers there. So, again, that's another increase. People go from $50 to $100 for Premium Plus. So that, again, contributes to the ARPU growth that we're seeing in the quarter.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah, and I would just add that, our hardware roadmap is designed to directly support subscription growth, and subscription is designed to directly support the hardware user experience. So, I think that's important to note, that our vision is to provide both value and differentiation to our hardware customers via the subscription, and the hardware is designed to drive, you know, additional subscription growth. That is very much a part of our strategy going forward as we look to expand our product portfolio.
Mm-hmm. And, there was also earlier reference on attach rate. Can maybe you talk about that? You know, how attach rate has changed, now that you have more diversified product line with upcoming renewal of the lower-end cameras, and also, how attach rate was affected by your share change between direct-to-consumer and retail channels?
Yeah. The combined attach rates today, it's about 40%-45%, or it was 45% last quarter, but on an annual basis, it's about 40%, across retail and GoPro.com. Historically, when we offered kind of outside value before we shifted back to our retail strategy, it was 90%. And retail was actually very low. It was, like, 10%, we got it to kind of 18%, into the 20s, squeaked into the 30s, and now retail is about 40%-45% as well. And obviously, when we shifted back and normalized pricing and took the advantage away from GoPro.com, that attach rate has moved back down to about 45% as well. So it's about the same, for both.
And that was another advantage we had when we shifted back to the retail strategy, and meet the consumers where they were shopping, because we had already accelerated the attach rates more up on the retail side. So it was pretty neutral from a growth perspective. But that said, I mean, last two quarters, we've been at 45% attach. And then as we look at year one retention, it's about 60, just over 60%. Year two is over 70, and year three is over 80%. So the longer people are in it, the longer the bigger the retention that we see, which is what's also driving our group growth, right? So that's pretty exciting.
The other thing is, obviously, you know, we've reported sell-through down, I think, in the second quarter, 9% year-over-year, but despite that, we've been able to increase the number of subscribers in the business. They've been pretty much, you know, very closely aligned, and we've been able to offer, I think, better value to the consumer for the subscription, and we're seeing that kind of play out in our subscriber numbers. And I'll say that the, the average attach was 45%, but at the entry-level price point was about 25. So even though people are spending $200-$250 to buy a camera, they're also spending the $25 for the first year and then $50 for the second year, right? So that, that's a pretty good...
That's a pretty healthy amount of people coming in, even at that entry level. So, it's clear there's value there for the consumer.
Mm-hmm. And, one of the trends we're seeing elsewhere in consumer subscription business is price increase. You know, how do you feel, you know, you are positioned to raise prices? Do you intend to do that in later or, you know, what's your general view on pricing of your subscription service?
Yeah, it's interesting. We've tested that. And so I think the pricing we have now reflects pretty much where the consumer is, which is important. So we do test it. We see where the boundaries are, and I can tell you that the boundaries are within the price of a Big Mac.
Mm.
It's pretty tight. That shows you kind of the where the consumer is, right? I think the $25 entry, the $50 on the second year, getting people up into the Premium Plus category to spend money for the storage, and additional stabilization software, has definitely hit the sweet spot for the company.
Mm
... and for the consumer.
And then, if you go up the market in categories like 360 camera, you know, by nature of the video, they will consume more space, will have more maybe editing needs. Do you think with upcoming intro of the new MAX, will that raise your subscription in one way or another?
No. I'll just come out and say that, no. I think over time, as we build more value and capability into our software offering, will we potentially have the opportunity to raise prices? Sure, over time. And then, as we launch new products that maybe have more specialized needs in software or capabilities in software, is that an opportunity? Sure. It's all about value, as you know. But we've already established with MAX what you get included in the mobile app and as a part of, and desktop, as a part of your purchase of hardware, and then what the value adds are for subscribers beyond what comes for free in the apps. And that the market for that's fairly established right now.
Our focus is on gaining our share back in the category. So investors should not expect a 2025 increase in subscription pricing.
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. And, about attach-
We've got a really good thing going right now.
Mm-hmm
... as it relates to subscription, Martin, so we're pretty excited to grow that in 2025 as we increase unit sales and contribute to overall top line and bottom line growth.
... Mm-hmm. And how about attach rate?
We obviously don't wanna do anything to rock the apple cart at this moment.
Mm-hmm. And do you think that those high-end product will have higher attach rate for subscription at the same price?
Yeah, we see that. You know, Brian noted that at entry level, at the not $199, $249 price point of hardware, we're seeing about 25%, a sustained attach rate for subscription, which is great. And the company average is 40%-45% across the board, which indicates that as you move up the stack in pricing, we're having a higher attach rate. 'Cause it's just a lower... It's lower relative cost to be a subscriber, relative to your cost of the hardware purchase.
Mm-hmm.
And of course, there's more intent and commitment to the hardware purchase if you're spending more for it as well, so that contributes to that.
Mm-hmm. Got it. So since we're still on the topic for 360 cameras, you know, announcing product delays is never easy. Can you maybe talk about, you know, what are the drivers of the delays and, you know, implications on the market share?
Well, what I can share is, GoPro's known as an innovator, as a market leader. We do a lot of research as to what consumers want to see from our next products, and where technically feasible, with the appropriate amount of risk, we pursue those innovations to deliver those market-leading products to our users to stay, you know, a market leader. Sometimes innovation takes longer than you anticipated. Sometimes you hit some development bumps in the road that extend your timeline, and that's what happened in the case of MAX 2.
Mm-hmm.
As a part of our commitment to only launch product of a very high quality, that is respectful of our consumers' wallets, we decided to delay the launch of MAX 2, so that when we do launch it, it does our brand proud and is worthy of our customers' money. We're not gonna launch that product until it's ready, and that's gonna be in 2025, as we shared. But we're very confident that it stacks up extremely well against the competition, and will contribute to significant share recoupment in 2025, along with the rest of our go-to-market strategy. So yeah, it's unfortunate, but you know, that's... When you're an innovator and a market leader, this can happen from time to time.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah. Hey, Martin, maybe I can chime in on that to add a little bit of color. One is, none of the delay is due to supply chain, so once we're ready to go from an engineering perspective, we hit the ground running, right? So that's, that's a positive. And just as a, for investors, as a historical kind of reminder, the 360 category represented, you know, a mid-single-digit kind of percentage of revenue. That's also a growing category within digital imaging.
Yeah.
Digital imaging, we're seeing that back on a growth trajectory, which is good news, and, and that's a category that's growing. We would expect, when we get the product out in 2025, that, that 360 could represent 5%-10% of our overall revenue. So that's... It's a important contributor to the growth story that we talked about for 2025.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah, I think that's a good reminder that digital imaging overall is growing. 360 is one of the growth categories. There are others, and if you look at what products are driving growth, they fall into the category. Most of them fall into the category of alternative capture. Consumers are... We all know that there's a creator movement in the world. If you... The data around career, you know, young people's vision for their careers in the future, a lot of them are considering being creators, content creators on YouTube and other social platforms.
It's a remarkable time to be in the camera business, believe it or not, because of this interest amongst youth, and the overall growth in the creator movement. As a part of being a creator, you need to look for alternative looks. You can't have your content always look the same, nor look the same as what everybody else is producing. So, the opportunity to help people create differentiated content and unique content that can engage an audience is a significant one. But this year, GoPro is outside, with its face pressed up against the glass as it relates to growth in digital imaging, because we haven't launched a new product. We have two new products that are launching next month. We're really excited about that.
Last week on our earnings call, we shared that next month we're launching HERO13 Black, our new flagship, which has significantly expanded capabilities, and we're also launching our $199 entry-level HERO camera, which we think is gonna really excite people with its new form factor and unique characteristics, that's going to be we believe are gonna be appealing, not only to entirely new customers who are maybe buying a GoPro-like camera for the first time, but also existing customers who are we believe are gonna see a significant value in the unique characteristics of that $199 camera. So we, we believe that we're gonna start to participate in the growth of digital imaging category in a month, and then build on that with the launch of MAX 2 in 2025, along with other new products.
But unfortunately, in 2024, we're not participating in the growth of the digital imaging category due to delayed product launch. Again, the silver lining is, we believe we can come back with a vengeance in 2025, but 2024 is definitely a bit of a frustrating year to finally see growth in digital imaging. But we're hard at work to get our new products out and participate in that growth.
Thanks, Nick, Next question . So aside from HERO Black, you're also launching a lower- a renewed version of the lower-end products. You know, can you maybe remind us again the margin impact you would expect from the lower-end HERO camera refresh?
Yeah, Martin, just as a reminder, we've been selling between HERO9 and HERO10, between $199 and $249. Those cameras were built to be $400 cameras, and they have cost point for $400 cameras. And so over the last 18 months or so, as we've been selling those products at those price points, the margin's basically been zero or close to it. The product refresh that we're doing is re-engineered from the bottom up, and so that'll have a very positive margin as we look ahead into second half of this year and next year. So, we're excited to trade out products we've been selling at near zero to something that's substantially above it. It's not at corporate average, but it, it's pretty, pretty close. And then you throw in subscription, and it gets better.
So that's partly why you're seeing us, you know, take margin forecast up. You know, Q3, we, we pulled it up in the second half. We think we're gonna be between 35%-36%, 35.5%, margin up from about 30%, right? So you're, you're, you're gonna start seeing us go up that, that curve, and, and that's- that plays itself out into 2025. So the margin expansion, we'll definitely see it improve from 2023 and the first half of 2024.
Got it. So on the recent call, you referenced Garmin as a model on how you think about GoPro and going forward, a diversification strategy. Can you elaborate what that means in terms of how you think about the business composition, and is there any multi-year plan associated with that or that goal?
Yes, there is. Starting with our multi-year product roadmap that we're developing, you've heard us talk a lot about diversification, specialization, better serving consumers in the various markets that we serve with more tailored, specialized products that do a better job of meeting some of the specialized needs that they have, beyond what a HERO camera alone can do. Not to take anything away from the HERO camera, but you can only ask so much of any one product, right? So, it arguably is the world's most versatile camera. However, it goes beyond what you need for certain use cases. And so in some markets, in some use cases, you wanna actually pare the experience down to the essence of what the person is really trying to accomplish.
In some other use cases, you need to accomplish something entirely different than what a HERO camera can do today. So in some ways, the HERO camera is a proof point as to the potential of GoPro to better serve the world as the world's leading alternative capture company. That we've generated a $1 billion revenue business with the single SKU lineup effectively that we have is a terrific proof point of that. What we're impressed and inspired by is the way that Garmin impresses and inspires us to the extent at which they, over time, have specialized and broadened their product portfolio to really serve the consumer who has, you know, GPS telemetry data, acquisition-driven needs. They've done a phenomenal job of it.
You need only go to, say, like, a Bass Pro Shops to just walk aisle by aisle and see how many market-leading products they make in so many different niches for so many different use cases, ranging all the way, you know, up to, you know, professional products like aviation and so forth. And they've done a really, really good job of that with the sort of foundational focus of GPS and data acquisition. We see a similar opportunity in digital imaging, where our brand is very broad in its potential to enable people to capture differentiated content in a differentiated markets and use cases with a differentiated product, going way beyond, from a specialized perspective, what the phone or a traditional camera can do.
Again, we've sort of tested that market over the years with the HERO camera, and now we're really excited to dive in with a much broader range of products to serve digital imaging-minded consumers and professionals with products that are as, you know, broad and diversified as what you see from Garmin in the category that they play. It's an underserved opportunity, we believe, that we're super excited to attack over the next few years. But I wanna remind investors that we intend to do so in a profitable manner. I do not want investors hearing me say this and then think, "Oh, my God, GoPro's gonna go spend a ton of money in pursuit of this broader product portfolio, and it's gonna be, you know, big OpEx increases and so forth to do so." No.
We are identifying opportunities to lower GoPro's OpEx to operate as a profitable company while we simultaneously pursue an expanded product roadmap that we believe can grow our TAM, top line, and margin. We're gonna be very committed to this, and it's gonna take time, right? But product development cycles, they take time, so this is not an overnight thing. But it's going to start next month with the launch of two new products that we're super excited about. It's gonna continue in 2025 with the launch of our MAX 2 360 camera and additional new products, and then into 2026 as well. And we're expecting to end 2026 with the broadest product portfolio that you've ever seen from GoPro. But we will achieve that, via our plan, as a profitable company. That's our, that's our expectation.
That's what we're focused and committed to.
Thanks, Nick. We have one more question from the audience. This is regarding MAX 2 release window into next year. Is it September as your usual product release, or could we expect a early release for MAX 2 next year?
Yeah, we're not sharing that at this time, but thank you for the question.
Got it. With that, is there any closing remarks you would like to make before we conclude?
No, I would just be repeating what I just took the last couple of minutes to say. So but I just wanna thank everybody for attending the conference today. We really appreciate your interest and engagement, and Brian, if you have anything you wanna add?
No, the same. It's great to be back on the road, Martin. Thanks for having us, and I look forward to talking to investors throughout the day. So thanks for setting it up.
Thank you, Brian. Thank you, Nick. I hope everyone have a good rest of the day.
Thank you, Martin.
Thanks, Martin.