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Earnings Call: Q4 2015

Feb 17, 2016

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Garmin Ltd.'s fourth quarter 2015 earnings conference call. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode to reduce background noise, but later we will be conducting a question and answer session. Instructions will follow at that time. If anyone should require operator assistance during the program today, you may dial star then zero on your keypad in order to speak with an operator. I would now like to introduce your first speaker for today, Teri Seck, Manager of Investor Relations. You have the floor, ma'am.

Teri Seck
Manager of Investor Relations, Garmin

Good morning. We would like to welcome you to Garmin Ltd.'s fourth quarter 2015 earnings call. Please note that the earnings, press release, and related slides are available at Garmin's Investor Relations site on the internet at www.garmin.com/stock. An archive of the webcast and related transcript will also be available on our website. This earnings call includes projections and other forward-looking statements regarding Garmin Ltd. and its business. Any statements regarding our future financial position, revenues, earnings, market shares, product introductions, future demand for our products, and objectives are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this earnings call may not occur, and actual results could differ materially as a result of risk factors affecting Garmin. Information concerning these risk factors is contained in our Form 10-K, which will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission later today.

Presenting on behalf of Garmin Ltd. this morning are Cliff Pemble, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Doug Boessen, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Cliff Pemble.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Thank you, Teri, and good morning, everyone. As announced earlier today, Garmin reported fourth quarter revenue of $781 million, representing a 3% decline year-over-year. While our revenue trends are impacted by the ongoing secular decline of the P&D market, I am pleased to report that the aviation, fitness, marine, and outdoor segments as a group grew 11% year-over-year and contributed 66% of total revenues. This growth and diversification of our revenue base is a direct result of the investments we have made in our business over the past few years. Gross margin was 52.9%, ahead of our expectations, but down slightly year-over-year, driven primarily by the competitive dynamics in our fitness segment. Operating margin declined to 18.7% as we continued to invest in engineering and advertising.

These factors, offset by a lower than anticipated effective tax rate, resulted in pro forma EPS of $0.74 in the quarter. Looking briefly at our full year performance, we reported revenue of $2.8 billion, a 2% decline year-over-year, driven mainly by global currency shifts that created significant revenue and margin headwinds. Despite these headwinds, the aviation, fitness, marine, and outdoor segments grew 9% on a combined basis, contributing nearly $1.8 billion in revenue for the year, or 63% of the total, and generating 75% of our operating income. Gross and operating margins of 54.6% and 19.5% respectively were down compared to 2014, but exceeded our expectations in a difficult global economy. Unit deliveries increased 7% for the year to 16.2 million.

Doug will discuss financial results in greater detail in a few minutes, but first I'll provide a few comments on each business segment. Beginning with the fitness segment, revenue for the year grew 16%, driven by growth in activity trackers. Gross and operating margins were 55% and 20% respectively. Gross margin was impacted by the competitive dynamics in the market, while operating margin was further impacted by ongoing investments in advertising and engineering. We believe these investments are strategically important in order to maximize the long-term opportunity in the fitness market. In 2015, we introduced Garmin Elevate wrist heart rate technology into our running and activity tracker product lines, and we made significant enhancements to Garmin Connect Mobile. These developments have strengthened our position in the market and positively impacted our results for the year. In 2016, we are targeting revenue growth of approximately 10% in the fitness segment.

New product introductions play a key role in our growth assumptions. Looking at outdoor, revenue declined 1% year-over-year as economic and geopolitical issues impacted sales of our core product categories. This weakness was partially offset by strength in the outdoor wearable category. The outdoor segment continued to generate strong gross and operating margins of 61% and 33% respectively. This represents a slight decline compared to 2014 due to product mix and additional investments in engineering and advertising to support new product launches. In 2016, we expect revenue growth of approximately 10%, which includes anticipated contributions from Pulsed Light and the pending acquisition of DeLorme. We anticipate that the wearable category will continue to be strong in 2016, driven by the new fēnix 3 HR with wrist heart rate. In addition, we expect to benefit from new product introductions across other categories.

Turning next to aviation, we reported year-over-year revenue growth of 3%, which exceeded our expectations in the midst of an industry decline of 5%, as reported by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association. Gross and operating margin remained strong at 74% and 28% respectively. In the fourth quarter, the G3000-equipped HondaJet became the latest aircraft to receive FAA certification, bringing the total to 64 aircraft platforms certified with a Garmin integrated cockpit. In 2016, we are targeting revenue growth of approximately 5% in the aviation segment. While industry dynamics remain a factor, market share gains and new platforms provide opportunities for growth. Looking next at the marine segment, we reported year-over-year revenue growth of 15%, driven by strong sales of new products. Gross margin improved to 55%, while operating margin was down slightly to 10% due to litigation-related costs.

Operating income grew 9% for the year due to stronger revenue and gross margin. For 2016, we are targeting revenue growth of approximately 10% in the marine segment, driven by new product introductions. We believe our product lineup is very strong as we enter the marine season, and we look forward to another year of growth in 2016. Looking finally at the auto segment, revenues were down 15% for the full year, as expected, due to the ongoing decline of P&D market. Gross and operating margins were 44% and 13%, respectively, and our global market share remains very strong. During the year, our presence at Honda expanded and now includes their Pilot, Accord, Civic, and CR-V models. Additionally, our presence at Mercedes recently expanded and now includes their C-Class and E-Class models.

Looking at 2016, we expect revenue to decline approximately 15%, driven primarily by ongoing declines in the P&D market. We remain focused on disciplined execution in order to bring desired innovation to the market and to maximize profitability in the segment. I want to highlight one other matter regarding action cameras. As of 2016, we have reclassified our action camera product line from the outdoor segment into the auto segment. We believe this change will enhance the alignment of our engineering, marketing, and sales resources. Going forward, segment results will be adjusted to reflect this change. In summary, we see many opportunities ahead in 2016. The macroeconomic challenges we faced in 2015 remain part of the operating environment. With this in mind, we are projecting revenue of approximately $2.82 billion, which is flat year-over-year, and steady gross margin of approximately 54.5%.

We are projecting operating income of approximately $510 million, with operating margins of approximately 18%. Factoring in an effective tax rate of approximately 20.5%, pro forma earnings per share is expected to be approximately $2.25, which includes a $0.05 negative impact related to acquisition. That concludes my remarks. Next, Doug will walk you through additional details of our financial results. Doug?

Doug Boessen
CFO and Treasurer, Garmin

Thanks, Cliff. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin by reviewing our fourth quarter and full year financial results, then move to comments on the balance sheet, cash flow statement, and taxes. We posted revenue of $781 million for the fourth quarter, representing 3% decrease year-over-year. Gross margin was 52.9%, a 70-basis-point decrease from the prior year, driven by the increased competitive pricing in the fitness segment. Operating income was $146 million. Operating margin was 18.7%, a decrease of 320 basis points from the prior year. This is a result of both a decline in the gross margin rate and operating expense growth of 5%, or $12 million, driven by litigation-related costs and increased spending in advertising and research and development. The pro forma effective tax rate of 13%, pro forma EPS was $0.74.

Looking at full year results, we posted revenue of $2.82 billion for the year, representing a 2% decrease year-over-year. Gross margin was 54.6%, a 130-basis-point decrease from the prior year. Operating income was $550 million, compared to $691 million in 2014. Operating margin was 19.5%, a decrease of 460 basis points from the prior year, driven by both gross margin declines and increased operating expenses. Pro forma effective tax rate increased to approximately 20% for full year 2015, compared to approximately 17% in 2014. Pro forma EPS was $2.49, a 20% decrease year-over-year. We'll discuss gross margin, operating expenses, effective tax rate in more detail later. We'll look at fourth quarter and full year revenue by segment. During the fourth quarter, we experienced growth in four of our five segments, led by fitness with 14% growth and aviation with 12% growth.

Collectively, these four segments were up 11% compared to their prior year quarter. For the full year 2015, we experienced growth in three of our five segments, led by fitness with 16% growth and marine with 15% growth. Looking at fourth quarter revenue charts on this page. The auto segment represented 35% of our total fourth quarter 2015 revenue, compared to 42% in the fourth quarter of 2014. Fitness grew to 29% of revenue in the current period, compared to 25% in the prior year. As you can see from the charts that illustrate our profitability mix by segment, outdoor, fitness, marine, and aviation collectively delivered 75% of operating income in the fourth quarter of 2015, compared to 68% in the fourth quarter of 2014. Drilling down on year-over-year gross margin by segment, both aviation and marine posted gross margin rate increases due to product mix.

Fitness gross margin rate was lower due to competitive pricing dynamics and product mix. Looking at full-year metrics. For the full year, the non-auto segments made up 62% of total revenue, compared to 57% in 2014. A similar shift occurred in operating income, with 75% of our 2015 operating income collectively coming from outdoor, fitness, marine, and aviation segments, compared to 69% in 2014. Looking at operating expenses. As previously mentioned, fourth quarter operating expenses increased by $12 million, 5%. This is a 250-basis-point increase as a % of sales. Research and development increased $4 million year-over-year, or 90 basis points to 13.6% of sales. We continue to invest in innovation with increasing resources focused primarily on aviation, fitness, outdoor, and marine, where we see long-term growth opportunities. Our advertising expense increased $3 million over the prior quarter to represent 7.3% of sales, a 50-basis-point increase.

Additional spending was primarily in the fitness segment with a near-term focus on market share growth in wearables. SG&A was up $5 million compared to the prior quarter, increasing 100 basis points as a % of sales to 13.4%. Increased spending in SG&A was driven primarily by litigation-related costs and IT expenses. A few highlights on the balance sheet and cash flow statement. We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of about $2.4 billion. Accounts receivable increased sequentially due to the holiday quarter and was down year-over-year to $531 million. Our inventory balance increased year-over-year to $501 million as we grew our product offerings and continued to maintain an adequate supply of raw materials for safety stock. During the fourth quarter of 2015, we generated free cash flow of $131 million. In the quarter, we paid dividends of $97 million.

We repurchased $23 million of company stock, with $160 million remaining for purchase through December 2016. With our dividend and stock repurchase activity during 2015, we returned $509 million of cash to our shareholders. As I previously mentioned, our effective tax rate decreased to 13% in the current quarter, compared to a pro forma tax rate of 19% in the fourth quarter of 2014. The lower tax rate was primarily a result of income mix by tax jurisdiction, which was positively impacted by the increase in actual full-year taxable income compared to previous projections and the resulting catch-up benefit for the first three quarters of 2015. Consistent with the prior year, the fourth quarter tax rate included the full-year impact of the R&D tax credit. Our full-year pro forma effective tax rate increased from 17% in 2014 to 20% in 2015, primarily due to income mix by tax jurisdiction.

We expect our full-year tax rate for 2016 to be approximately 20.5%. We announced this morning that we plan to seek shareholder approval for a dividend of $2.04 per share, payable in four installments of $0.51 per share per quarter, beginning with the June 2016 calendar quarter. As Cliff mentioned, beginning in 2016, we will recast action camera sales and expenses from our outdoor segment to our auto segment. As such, we provide a supplemental schedule to help assist in updating your models. A link to this schedule can be found within the appendix of today's webcast. This concludes our formal remarks. Andrew, can you please open the line for Q&A?

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question for the speakers at this time, you may dial star then the number one key on your keypad. That's star then one. If your question has been answered or if you wish to remove yourself from the queue, you may press the pound key. In the interest of time, we request that you limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, star then one will put you into the queue. Our first question is from Simona Jankowski from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Simona Jankowski
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Thank you very much. First of all, just in terms of the 10% growth in outdoor that you're expecting, how much of that is organic versus the contribution from M&A? Just a follow-up, I wanted to get a sense for your thought process on OpEx and marketing expense into this year relative to last year. Some of the fitness growth initiatives have not played out quite as expected, so just curious if you're considering pulling back on that a bit.

Doug Boessen
CFO and Treasurer, Garmin

Yes. Simona, in terms of the contributions from acquisitions, we don't break it out in detail, but a big portion of the growth in Outdoor is

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

The acquisitions. Then some organic growth on top of that. In terms of the OpEx, we're looking at 2016 relatively conservatively. We do have expenses that we incurred in the partial year of 2015 that roll through a full year of 2016, that drives some of the increase. Then we have targeted investments in key areas where we see opportunities for growth.

Simona Jankowski
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Bollin from Cleveland Research. Your line is open.

Ben Bollin
Analyst, Cleveland Research

Thanks. Good morning. When you look at the different product segments, how are you thinking about the gross margin trajectory on a look-forward basis relative to what you've seen over the last couple of years?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Well, I think the biggest dynamic, Ben, is the changes in the fitness market due to the competitive dynamics and the expansion of the overall market. That's one that's driving lower from where it's traditionally been. I would say that the other segments are pretty much on trajectory from where they've been. Keep in mind, we did see some change in the past year due to the currency issue, and that will take some time to stabilize in terms of our ability to go back up as we introduce new products and new margin structures into the market.

Ben Bollin
Analyst, Cleveland Research

When you look at your OpEx performance or your guidance when you're thinking about OpEx in 2016, the implied OpEx figure looks basically flat to up in 2016 versus 2015. Last year, I think you grew about $100 million year-over-year. In 2014, you grew at about $80 million year-over-year. Is that how we should think about the model going forward? You made your heavy lifting, it's done, and now you're getting back to steady state, or is this a pause year for you?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Well, it's hard to look too far down the road because we don't know what additional things we'll encounter in the markets. In terms of your observations around the previous years, yes, we did ramp up substantially in those years, both in terms of our advertising spend as well as engineering spend as we launched new categories. We're looking at 2016 as being somewhat of a stabilizing year because we feel like the levels that we're at, in particular like the advertising area, is something that we can work well with in the coming year.

Ben Bollin
Analyst, Cleveland Research

Thank you.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Coster from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Paul Coster
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. The P&D segment obviously continues to be a weight on growth. It's now declining to the point where I imagine it's easier to start thinking about restructuring that segment and sort of liberating the overall company from that, perhaps culling some of the product lineup. I'm just wondering what your thoughts are in terms of the positioning of the P&D segment, whether you're prepared to yield part of that market in order to just focus on profitability and growth moving forward.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Well, the P&D market is still a significant generator of revenue and profits. We feel like the market is in a manageable state in terms of its overall development. Our market share is very strong on a global basis. We believe we're the market leader on a global basis. We really don't see any significant changes that we plan to make in terms of our approach to the market in the coming year.

Paul Coster
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Well, I think every quarter you're asked when you think that market might stabilize. I don't see why this call should be any different. Any thoughts there?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Well, it's a mixed story. Around the world, some countries and some markets, as you know, have shown signs of stabilization while others have continued to decline. It's still a dynamic situation.

Paul Coster
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, last question. The ad spending that we've seen recently, is it a sort of one-time deal, or do you believe that you've now sort of established a new run rate in terms of your ad allocation?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

I think for the time being, we feel like we've established a run rate that we're comfortable with, and we'll continue to evaluate as market conditions evolve.

Paul Coster
Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. Thank you.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of James Faucette from Morgan Stanley. Pardon me. Faucette, your line is open.

James Faucette
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi. Thanks. James Faucette here from Morgan Stanley. Quick questions on both what you saw in 2015 and in the fourth quarter geographically. It looked like the U.S. and Europe was down, whereas Asia-Pac was quite strong. I'm wondering if you can give a little bit of at least segment color where it's notable for those different regions. Just trying to determine what was driving the differences in performance there. Just quick follow-up question is, you seem to finally be getting a little more at least footprint with the automakers with the in-dash segment.

How should we be thinking about your view on potential returns and return improvement on the investment that you've been putting into in-dash and what you think the way forward is for that part of the business? Thanks.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Okay. Thanks, James. In terms of the geographic mix, you're correct that the Americas segment was weaker and Europe, of course, was down. APAC was strong. I think the dynamics there in Europe, first of all, the currency trends probably impacted us the most, and I think by segment, we were actually pleased with many of the results that we had in 2015 and the gains that we had in terms of market share and unit deliveries. In terms of the Americas, it was down, and I think the biggest impact there was the activity tracker and fitness markets, which were primarily driven out of the Americas in terms of its overall development during the year.

In APAC, we've had strong success in terms of some of our segments there, particularly outdoor and also auto sales, auto OEM sales, into various markets in APAC and the Middle East. In terms of our outlook to 2016, we would anticipate some improvement in the Americas side of things, especially as we see growth in some of our traditional markets. In Europe we're continuing to plan for growth in terms of unit deliveries and overall improvements in margins and stabilization in currencies. In APAC, we continue to see an outlook for growth in terms of what's happening there as well. On the automotive OEM question, yes, we continue to make incremental progress. It's pleasing, but at the same time, we're not satisfied with that. We continue to drive for more wins.

As you know, this particular market and business is a long lead business develops very slowly and I probably can't say when we would see a stabilization, although we're trying to adjust our investments as well as going after nearer term deals that would help us improve the overall picture there. In general, I feel good about where we're at, and I feel like we have more work to do.

James Faucette
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thanks.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Robert Spingarn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hi, good morning.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Good morning.

Robert Spingarn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Cliff, I have one for you on aviation and the strength in the quarter and just what you're seeing there, given that some of these new products I don't think come online, as you said, until 2016. Doug, for you, wanted to ask about your expectations for free cash flow in 2016, just given, I guess, the easy compare with 2015. You had the tax payment, what buyback assumption might be in your 2016 free cash flow?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Starting first, Robert Spingarn, with the aviation side of things, we were pleased with what happened in Q4. I think we would attribute that to several factors. One is, there was a kind of a rush of deliveries that took place at the end of the year, which typically does happen, and we had newer platforms that of course, were part of that mix, allowing us to grow some of our revenues on the OEM side. We also ran successful promotions in Q4, which helped grow our overall sales in the retrofit side. I think generally we feel good about where aviation ended the year. We do continue to see the headwind in terms of the overall market that we've been talking about for a while.

Robert Spingarn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Cliff, before we go to Doug, do you see, just on the back of that, do you have any line of sight as to when this market really fundamentally improves? Is this global environment with FX and oil, et cetera, does it just cloud everything well into the future?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

I think my view is that that still presents a significant cloud to the longer term. That said, I would say that we feel that we have opportunities for growth in terms of market share and new platforms, which we continue to do. We're not necessarily completely pessimistic, but we recognize that the overall trends are a challenge, particularly as you see more stock market volatility, and of course, the lingering effect of lower oil prices.

Robert Spingarn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Just to be clear, without the new product introductions on sort of same products, would you say volumes are trending negatively in 2016?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

I would say it's probably flat based on where things stand today. There's some steady state deliveries that are going on with our existing OEMs, and many of our OEMs are doing reasonably well in this environment. Again, it's a headwind for everybody.

Robert Spingarn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. Thanks. Sorry, Doug. I got caught up in aviation.

Doug Boessen
CFO and Treasurer, Garmin

Oh, no problem. Yeah. Regarding free cash flow, we expect about $400 million of free cash flow for 2016. That assumes about $75 million of CapEx. Regarding a share repurchase for 2016, we'll actually monitor that depending upon markets and the business conditions during 2016.

Robert Spingarn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Is there anything in particular in that $400 million that makes it a bit lower than, let's say, the last couple of years before 2015?

Doug Boessen
CFO and Treasurer, Garmin

Well, we were factoring in the income forecast that we have and our guidance, as well as taking into consideration our working capital needs and inventory and such.

Robert Spingarn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

those are still rising a bit?

Doug Boessen
CFO and Treasurer, Garmin

Just a bit. Probably the working capital should not increase as much as it has in the previous years, but probably a little bit as we grow our business.

Robert Spingarn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. In any particular segments?

Doug Boessen
CFO and Treasurer, Garmin

It'll probably be where we have the new product offerings, primarily in the fitness area. Also in inventory. Historically, we've added some raw material requirements for safety stock. Now we built that up, and we'll kind of monitor that as we go along. We see the additional safety stock we need to build up.

Robert Spingarn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

I see. Okay. Thank you.

Doug Boessen
CFO and Treasurer, Garmin

Thanks, Robert.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Charlie Anderson from Dougherty & Company. Your line is open.

Charlie Anderson
Analyst, Dougherty & Company

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted a quick clarification on the growth rate assumptions in outdoor and auto, if those were apples to apples with the reclassification with action camera. Secondly, on fitness, I wonder if we could kind of deconstruct this a little bit. On a constant currency basis, how much did it grow in 2015? And then what are sort of the market assumptions for 2016 in terms of the core runner, cycler, cycling, activity tracker, and then maybe market share. You're assuming to start pretty steady with market share.

Doug Boessen
CFO and Treasurer, Garmin

Yeah. This is Doug. I'll take the first part of that regarding the guidance numbers we had for outdoor and auto. Yes, those guidance numbers that we gave factored in recasting, reclassifying the prior numbers. Beginning in 2016, the segment information that you'll see in our Q's go forward will have those numbers recast.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

In terms of our outlook, Charlie, in 2016 on fitness, we're projecting 10% overall in the segment, and that's pretty much an equal mix of growth in trackers as well as the other product lines, the cycling, the running, and all of those. In terms of market share, where we are today, we believe we are the market share leader in the GPS-enabled wearable device part of the market. We believe that our share is currently in the low to mid 40% range. The market has expanded significantly in the past year, so in terms of overall unit deliveries, we are still in a growth mode. We would expect to take some additional share and reclaim some share in the coming year as we feel our product lineup is much stronger than it was, with many more products coming out with wrist-based heart rate.

Charlie Anderson
Analyst, Dougherty & Company

Great. Thanks so much.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Thank you, Charlie.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt from Raymond James. Your line is open.

Tavis McCourt
Analyst, Raymond James

Hey, thanks for taking my question. A couple for you, Cliff. In the aviation business, where do we stand now in terms of the mix that's OEM versus aftermarket? As you guided for the year, what are your assumptions on that aftermarket trend? In terms of the logic of moving the camera business to auto, is there some operational logic there besides just moving it to a declining business category? Should we expect more integration of cameras and new applications in the P&D segment?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Yeah. Okay. On aviation, in terms of the mix, we don't detail that out, but generally, we see slightly stronger results in OEM as we add new platforms and steady to increasing growth in terms of retrofit as we introduce new products into the market. In terms of our logic around the move of the action cameras, as I mentioned in my remarks, there's a lot of similarities in the technologies and the market channels for action cameras as well as dash cameras that we have in already in our automotive segment. Consequently, we felt like it would better align all those resources and create more efficiencies as we deal with those similar technologies and routes to market.

Tavis McCourt
Analyst, Raymond James

Thanks. Doug, if we look at the full-year guidance of roughly flat on the top line, as we think about Q1, should it be a significant departure from that, better or worse based on, I forget if Q1 was a disappointing or a strong quarter last year, but based on the comps and everything, how should we view Q1?

Doug Boessen
CFO and Treasurer, Garmin

Yeah. We don't give quarterly guidance. Q1 is a lower seasonal quarter for us.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brad Erickson from Pacific Crest Securities. Your line is open.

Brad Erickson
Analyst, Pacific Crest Securities

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. First, just want to understand the margin dynamics, I guess, a little bit better for fitness. If we assume sort of flat FX, does 10% growth in fitness effectively equate to, say, stable margins, or does that still imply some margin erosion year-over-year?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Yeah, Brad, we're projecting margin erosion in fitness in 2016. Of course, we had quite a bit of margin erosion in 2015 due to both currency and the competitive dynamics. In 2016, we're projecting that the margin will continue to come down. We're comping against much higher margins that we had last year in the first half in fitness, and we feel like it will stabilize down to a lower level, about a 300 basis point impact.

Brad Erickson
Analyst, Pacific Crest Securities

Got it. That's helpful. Just on the fitness products overall, you talked a lot about on this call thus far around the heart rate monitoring technology. Can you kind of give us a sense of maybe some of the other sensor technologies that are maybe of interest for those products in the future? Thanks.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Well, we don't talk about our future roadmap, but we have explorations going on around many different kinds of sensor technologies and looking at which ones of those will provide useful guidance information for average consumers.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Will Power from Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

William Power
Analyst, Robert W. Baird

Great. Thanks. Yeah. Maybe just first a follow-up on aviation. I think on the previous call or a couple of calls, you had referenced some of the negative energy impacts. I wonder if you could give us a sense for what you're seeing on that front. How much is that limiting the growth opportunity in 2016?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

I think the energy situation directly impacts particularly the helicopter market, because helicopters are used significantly in oil exploration and all of the logistics that go around that. That's one big impact. In terms of oil-producing countries, the lower oil prices are having an economic impact broadly in those, so the citizens are not necessarily anxious to buy when oil prices are low. That's really the major factors that's creating headwind in terms of the oil impact.

William Power
Analyst, Robert W. Baird

Okay. Just bigger picture, just as you think about the cash balance, and this is probably one of the regular quarterly questions, too. Any updated thoughts with respect to plans for that cash balance, thoughts around more aggressive stock buyback or the ability to do that, or just any other updated thoughts with respect to how to best utilize that?

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Yeah, I think the priorities for our cash are to be a reliable payer of a dividend over the long term, so we focus heavily on that. Secondarily, to look for opportunities for tuck-in acquisitions that can help complement our business, add resources, or expand our market. Those are the two primary areas, we intend to supplement that with additional share buybacks. Based on our current free cash flow, our targets have been to return about 100% of that, again, based on where we are today. It's something we evaluate as we go along, depending on our cash flow and the overall situation.

William Power
Analyst, Robert W. Baird

Okay, thank you.

Cliff Pemble
President and CEO, Garmin

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that's all the questions in the queue at this time, so I would like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

Teri Seck
Manager of Investor Relations, Garmin

Okay, thank you, everyone. Doug and I will be available for call back.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you again for your participation in today's conference. This now concludes the program, and you may all disconnect your telephone lines at this time.