Hi, I'm Saree Boroditsky, and I cover industrials at Jefferies. I'm very excited we have the opportunity to host Hayward management today, including President and CEO, Kevin Holleran, CFO, Eifion Jones, and VP of Global Strategic Planning and Business Development, Stuart Baker. Management is going to start with some introductory comments, then we'll go right into Q&A. Thank you everyone so much for being here today. With that, I'll turn it over to Hayward.
Great. Thanks, Saree. This is Kevin Holleran. It's nice to be with you today. I thought we'd spend just the first few minutes this morning giving an overview of Hayward Holdings and what's driving our results. Here's an illustration of who we are. We have two reporting segments, North America and Europe, rest of world. North America represents about 80% of our business, which is advantageous, given this region has best pricing and margin profile in the industry. We're a pool pure play with over 95% of our revenue tied to the pool industry, with vast majority tied to the residential backyard. We have a complete line of innovative, environmentally sustainable products. Everything you need to safely operate any type of pool, whether it's in-ground, commercial or above ground. Hayward is benefiting from some secular trends like de-urbanization, migration to warmer climates, and a greater appreciation for healthy outdoor recreation.
New pool construction is incredibly important, as it adds more pools to the installed base. 75% of our revenue profile stems from a resilient non-discretionary aftermarket after the pool is built. This includes replacements, equipment upgrades, and remodels. You see our financials on the right side. The business is performing quite well, with the last 12 months revenue nearly $1.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA over $350 million. This is how we think about our competitive moat that creates stickiness to our share position and delivers growth for our shareholders. Starting at 12 o'clock, our first layer is an incredibly strong and trusted brand, decades in the making, and a very large installed base that comes from having a complete product line across all pool types.
Comes a large and very strong network of partners, from Totally Hayward builders and servicers that stake their reputation on Hayward product each day, to the distributors, retailers, e-sellers, and authorized service centers that help us sell and support Hayward product in the backyard. Third is our operational excellence and our ability to leverage volume at great margins. We manufacture in-market with roughly 80% of our product built in the U.S., and we're vertically integrated, so we have shorter supply chains than others. We're highly automated, and have capacity available to build more product with very manageable capital. I think all this has been on great display the first half of this year, as we've increased production year-over-year by approximately 80%. Final key Hayward advantage is our innovation and product design capabilities. Products are our lifeblood. We spend over $20 million a year in engineering.
We have extensive IP that we protect with active and pending patents, and we have top product performance in many key categories like Omni controls, variable speed pumps, and salt chlorine generation. Our industry is supported by strong secular trends, in the housing market. What do I mean by this? Millennials are becoming a larger segment of homeowners. They're tech-savvy buyers and expect smart home capabilities. They place outdoor living in high priority and appreciate a work-to-live type mentality. De-urbanization is occurring, which is moving folks from apartments to single-family homes. There's increased flexibility to work from home or adopt a hybrid work schedule, which places greater priority on home amenities, including outdoor living space. Migration to the Sun Belt is occurring, where warmer weather creates more interest in pools and outdoor living.
Finally, there's a shortage of new home stock, which is refueling remodeling activity, and is helping to educate the buyer to what's possible when they're creating that backyard oasis. The right side of the slide really highlights the growing focus on smart homes, with a predicted penetration increase from 40% today to 60% in just a few years. This expectation carries over to the backyard, where our Omni control system is ushering in greater connectivity of the pool pad, something we coined SmartPad, by synchronizing variable speed pumps, heaters, LED lights, salt chlorine generators, water features, et cetera, to the control. Our Omni system can interface with other backyard features not sold by Hayward, like landscape lighting, irrigation systems, or it can become part of a larger ecosystem through Crestron or Savant.
Let me dive into this SmartPad conversion just a little deeper before turning it over to Eifion Jones, what it means for us and for our industry. We started with the reasonable assumption that existing pool owners want similar control and features that new pool owners are opting for. Controls is really the linchpin or the gateway. Once someone adds Omni, more content is coming that is higher priced, more connected, and environmentally sustainable. New construction in the U.S., as highlighted in the top left, is opting for controls about two-thirds of the time, 65% of the time, with the installed base still in the mid-20s to high 20%. This digital conversion itself, at $1,500 a copy across this 40% difference and the 5.3 million pools alone, is a $3 billion growth opportunity.
As I said, once controls are in place, this opens the door for other things like variable speed pumps, LED lights, et cetera. To quantify just a couple more of those focused on energy conversion. Variable speed has about a 40% difference between new install, installed base and new construction. This represents about a $1.6 billion opportunity. Finally, this chemical conversion that we're seeing, a conversion from chlorine tablets to salt or a more natural sanitization. That is 25% difference between new construction and installed base, and that represents about another $1.3 billion. This SmartPad conversion is a big part of what we started to see prior to COVID, and it certainly played out during the pandemic, and we still feel like it's very much in the early innings of this transition. Final slide will be covered by Eifion Jones, our CFO.
Great. Thanks, Kevin. In terms of our financial outlook for 2021, we've revised our guidance for the full year in terms of net sales. We're now guiding for year-over-year growth of 54%-58%. That's an increase up from the prior guidance range of 40%-45%. Adjusted EBITDA is now guided between $405 million to $425 million, or an increase of 75%-84% year-over-year. This compares to the prior guidance range we gave of $360 million to $390 million. At the midpoint of the updated guidance, adjusted EBITDA of $415 million yields a margin of 30.4%, which is an increase of 390 basis points over our results in 2021.
Our guidance update is predicated on very strong first half results and clear line of visibility into the balance of the year. Obviously, continued strength across all product ranges, market trends supporting outdoor living and healthy living. Finally, in recognition of the inflationary trends that have developed in the first half of 2021. I think that wraps up our prepared slide remarks. Saree.
Perfect. Thanks for that. You just posted a very strong second quarter. Sales grew above 66%, and as you mentioned, you increased your full year outlook. Could you just talk through the contribution of new builds versus aftermarket and upgrades and pricing and of all the components that support your full year outlook for the 55%-68% sales growth?
Sure. That guidance really assumes about 25% of that growth stemming from new construction. That is the historic trend, and it really does continue this year. The other 75%, as you mentioned, of our business is really what comes from that aftermarket, including the replacement, the remodeling, and the upgrade activity. New construction is expected to grow mid to maybe high teens this year, which was similar to 2020. While this is higher than the last decade, business in the aftermarket, through increased usage and pool pad upgrading activity, continues to climb also. It's still really a 25/75 split, 25% tied to new construction and 75% tied to the aftermarket activity, Saree.
Supply chain shortages have been impacting more companies right now. You've been able to increase capacity rather quickly in this environment. Can you just talk about any bottlenecks you're seeing and how that's impacting growth in the quarter?
Yeah, sure. Good question. First, I'd like to take this opportunity to express how proud and appreciative I am of the team. They've worked tirelessly to address bottlenecks, which has resulted in our ability to expand capacity, that 80% for production, that 80% that I mentioned earlier. We've really methodically addressed all elements of the supply chain, from raw material inputs to production conversion to outbound logistics. We have longstanding relationships with our suppliers, many of which have contracts in place that help to mitigate some inflationary headwinds and ensures continuity of supply. From a labor standpoint and a conversion standpoint, we've introduced some creative means to recruit new associate staff, some off shifts, along with some wage increases, and we're filling the openings.
We do have latent capacity in our production facilities that we can unlock with minimal capital requirements. Really that third link is around distribution. We've been progressively optimizing our distribution footprint after opening a world-class distribution center in Phoenix last year. We're replicating that in the Southeast, right near our Clemmons, N.C. facility, which will free up some additional manufacturing space. We still continue to feel some bottlenecks, but really proud of how the team has really systematically worked across these three key areas, to increase production capacity.
I think you've mentioned being able to increase capacity by just running more hours. Is that something you're currently looking to do, and how long does it take to ramp that capacity?
Yeah. Why don't I take that one, Kevin? We've expanded shifts progressively over the last year. It's enabled us to increase our production by approximately 80%. We've been able to do that substantially within a five-day shift model. We now have the option to permanently expand our shift structure into the weekend, which opens up at least another 30% of capacity on the installed equipment that we have. We've obviously had to match our capacity expansion with raw material capabilities and supply chain capabilities, we continue to work with our suppliers to increase supply.
You put in a pricing fee of about 5%-7% on any order that was not shipped by the end of September. Did you see any pushback from customers that have orders in the system at the lower price now, and do you expect to see any cancellations as a result of this?
Yeah, sure. Just to be clear, we've instituted two off-cycle price increases this year. One was announced back in late March of 5%, effective on orders received after May 1st. Your question specifically referenced this second price increase, which was announced in early July, of this range of 5%-7%, which would be effective on orders received in Q3, not shipped during Q3. They would be priced at the higher level starting September 27th or 28th, I believe it is. I think we've done a great job clearly communicating to the channel our rationale and the need for these price increases.
I think the channel understands that our input costs have increased significantly this year, that we only announce off-cycle increases when we cannot offset them ourselves through either contracts or productivity improvements. The real crux of your question was pushback. No, we actually have not received pushback. I think we've done a good job of laying out the rationale and the need for it. Received no cancellations to date, and frankly, don't expect any. That's how the team has laid out these series of price increases.
You saw double-digit growth in your Totally Hayward Rewards Program through June. Could you just talk about the benefits to Hayward of this program, and does it provide confidence in your ability to keep the market share gains you've made?
Yeah. First of all, Totally Hayward program, first, for the audience, that's a rewards program that functions similarly to an airline mileage program, and specifically targets builders and servicers that are in the backyard. The program rewards volume growth and purchases across all of our product lines. As you mentioned, we've had great success adding new Totally Hayward partners to our family thus far this year, growing our overall population right at 15% to total program in just six months of 2021. There's no reason a dealer would go through the process of joining the program if they were just sourcing a Hayward product in a pinch, and fully expected to go back to their other OEM that they maybe had done business with before Hayward. It's for this reason, we feel very confident about the stickiness of our recent share gains resulting from these new partners in the program.
You talked about a positive growth outlook for 2022, despite a really robust growth the last couple of years. How much of this growth outlook is from the early buy program being pushed out to the first quarter? How should we think about the cadence of growth going forward, just given strong pricing actions in 2021?
Yeah, it's a good question. We need to get clear on the early buy. When you think about 2022's forecast early buy season against what we did in actual 2021, the cadence of shipping is going to be the same. In 2021, we shipped most of the early buy in Q1, and we'll do the same likely in 2022. There is no difference in the cadence of shipments expected. In terms of growth, we've talked a lot about the continued new growth construction activity that we see with builders now reporting bookings well into 2022.
We believe the conversion to the SmartPad bundle is a key driver of our success in the aftermarket as well as new construction. That's a product-rich bundle, which is really beginning to underlie the growth inside both the industry, but in more particular, Hayward, and it's going to last for several years at least. As mentioned, we've instituted two off-cycle price increase this year, both effective really in Q4 on invoiced activity. As we step into 2022, those two off-cycle price increases will benefit the entirety of 2022. I'd say the aggregate of everything I just mentioned will result in an above-average growth year for 2022.
New builds, as you mentioned, appear largely sold out for this year. Do you have an idea of how far out contractors are booking for 2022? Have you seen pool contracts increase capacity to take on more jobs, or has labor and equipment shortages been a headwind here, so it just extends the cycle more?
Yeah. I'll take that one. Saree. As Eifion just said, builders are quoting now well out into 2022. It's a big population of builders out there, so there may be some exceptions to this, but I don't think there's really a chance of getting a new pool built or quoted and built in the first half of 2022. We're definitely, in most regions, out into the latter half of 2022. We have conversations with builders every day on this, and we understand that they are feverishly expanding their crews to add capacity to the industry. We believe it's supply and demand, and that labor will migrate to our industry as demand continues to climb.
We do get asked a lot, so I'll just take this question to kind of highlight a point that we get asked a lot around our thoughts on new construction, and can it continue on its current pace? Our industry is really forecasting around 110,000, maybe 115,000 new in-ground pools this year. That's really only getting back to the 35-year average of in-ground pools from 1985 to 2020. We're not in rarefied air. This industry has shown, again, over a 35-year period, that 115,000 is really where the median fell. I'll just point out that this is still well below the peak capability of the industry, from 1995 to really 2008, when we were installing and building over 150,000 a year. I do think that with the demand and some of the secular trends that we've highlighted, that there is opportunity for additional new construction growth in years to come.
I know that my family really wants a pool, so I guess we're in the waiting list for that as well. You've previously talked about long-term market growth in the pool space being 6%-8%. Given some of the recent acceleration demand following the pandemic, the interest in upgrading the SmartPad, do you think near-term growth over the next several years could come in higher than 68%? If so, what would be the key drivers between these new builds, replacement, upgrades, and price?
Yeah, I'll take that. Yes, we do believe in the near term, we'll see above average growth, Saree. I think it's driven by really four large categories. This continued acceleration of new construction, large scale remodels across an aged installed base of pools, which is now greater than 22 years old in the U.S. Continued upgrades to newer SmartPad technologies, which we've talked about a few times so far, and then continued increase in the repair and replacement market as that installed base of pools continues to grow. I'd say this growth will be driven by this new construction activity, and the adoption of new SmartPad bundles of products. The aftermarket attribute of the SmartPad bundle is quite an interesting dynamic.
We see today the adoption of SmartPad bundles at 65%, and new construction on the installed base is at 28%. There's a tremendous amount of conversion that can take place over the course of the next year to catch up the aftermarket with the new construction adoption rates. As I just mentioned, the two off-cycle price increases, both effective, really, in Q4, will be fully effective across the entirety of 2022. Clearly that will be a revenue driver as we go into next year. Again, the aggregate of all of these discussion points, I would say, will inform us as an industry, and in particular, Hayward, with an above-average growth profile, certainly for the next several years.
I think we probably have time for one more question. I'll just mention, during your earnings call, you mentioned the potential for larger acquisitions. Could you just talk about where you're seeing those large opportunities or where you see the biggest white space in your current offering, whether it's by product or region?
Yeah. I just wanted to clarify that remark. We're very happy with the way that we've been able to delever the balance sheet over the course of the last six months. It's given Hayward, the management team, a lot of optionality to think about how to deploy capital. We remain focused principally on organic growth investment into our own technical capabilities, into our core product lines. We will continue to look at opportunities to expand our technology base within our bundle and tuck in other emerging technologies.
We've got a great history of being able to do that and platform those acquisitions in relatively quickly. We continue to look at the pipeline of opportunities, and again, given the tremendous balance sheet strength that we have developed over the course of the last six months, it does allow us to think more broadly. We do remain focused on the organic opportunities in front of us, and we'll continue to strengthen the balance sheet and look at further opportunities over the balance of the year into 2022.
Maybe just sticking with capital deployment quickly. You've obviously mentioned you've continued to delever the balance sheet. Just could you talk through how you're thinking about returning cash to shareholders and what that might look like for you guys?
Again, we're a growth-orientated company. We're going to remain focused on the growth opportunities as a first deployment of capital. As we've stated many times, as we settle in firmly into the low end of that two to three type leverage range, we will then start to think about a return to shareholder policy, which is yet to be defined. It could be the combination of dividend and buyback, but we've yet to define that policy. Again, Saree, we remain focused on the growth opportunities. We're newly into this deleverage territory, so let's continue to manage the balance sheet within that range, and as we feel comfortable we've appropriately exercised on our growth opportunities, then we'll address the return to shareholder policy.
Well, there's obviously no shortage of growth in the pool space right now. Congratulations again on a very strong quarter, and thank you so much for joining us today.
Thanks, Saree. Appreciate you having us. Thank you.