Morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'm Sherif El-Sabbahy. I work on the US Machinery team here at BofA, and we're lucky to have with us here the management of Herc Rentals today. We've got Larry Silber and Mark Humphrey, CEO and CFO of Herc. To start us off, they're gonna give a brief presentation.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Sherif, for having us. Glad that we're here, and we welcome everybody to the Bank of America conference. It's great to be here in London. As always, let me just start with, I'd like to point out our safe harbor statement and information regarding non-GAAP financial measures that we might talk about today. Today, Herc Rentals is one of the leading full-line equipment rental suppliers in North America, and our vision, mission, and value statements are that we support a purpose-driven company, and we pledge to equip our customers and communities to build a brighter future.
We operate today out of about 400 locations, and we have about 7,400 team members today, and we are a North American-only company operating in 42 states in the United States and five Canadian provinces. We've been in business for 58 years, and we became an independent public company in mid-2016. We serve an addressable equipment market that's about $82 billion in North America. Herc has consistently been outpacing the market from a growth standpoint, and the strategies that we execute are delivering resilient and profitable growth for us.
We've been growing our core business and at the same time, expanding our specialty businesses, which help improve our margin structure quite significantly through both fleet investment, M&A activity, as well as new greenfield locations in a very healthy demand environment and a very positive rate environment in North America. At the same time, we've continued to invest in technology to improve our customer experience, as well as enhance our operating efficiencies. And we've implemented our initiatives towards our 2030 sustainability goals, and those will continue to remain in advance as we move forward in time, and we're committed to being a responsible corporate citizen. Finally, our capital allocation plan sets us up to continue to invest for scale and for additional capabilities while generating increasing returns for our shareholders.
Our financial strategies have resulted in a 1,000 basis point improvement in profit margin growth since we became an independent public company in mid-2016. They're underpinned by our 2023 performance, where we delivered another year of double-digit profitable growth. In fact, last year, we had a record for Herc against any metric that you might consider, including equipment rental revenue, total revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and earnings per share. I'd note that these results exclude our Cinelease business, studio entertainment business, which are assets that are currently being held for sale, as we've talked about in the past. In 2023, in support of our rising general demand trends, new greenfield locations and gradually increasing mega project starts, we've invested in our fleet and increased our rental revenue by 16% on top of growth in 2022 of 36%.
We've been focusing as well on rate growth and scale efficiencies. We more than offset our inflationary pressures and improved adjusted EBITDA by 24% year-over-year. On this next slide, we've also implemented our strategies to drive this exceptional growth, and we're looking for ways ahead to improve and remain nimble in our business. And we've introduced our new operating system, which we've termed E3OS, to guide our actions and measures on how we'll execute our business and how we'll create options for doing even better in our business. The name reflects our brand promise of being easy to do business with, being expert at what we do, and being efficient in serving our customers. The system is about operational effectiveness and continuous improvement, focusing primarily on those things that drive value for our customers and improve returns for our shareholders.
Before we move into questions and answers by Sherif this morning, let me tell you why we believe so strongly in the future of Herc Rentals. We're operating from a set of core strengths that differentiates us in a highly fragmented industry in North America and puts us in a much stronger position today than we've been at any time in the history of our company. We are an industry leader, generating above-market growth by providing our customers with broad-based, value-added rental solutions through a team of equipment experts that deliver premium products and best-in-class service. We're a market consolidator as well, having completed over 42 strategic acquisitions since launching our M&A strategy in December of 2020.
And we've also made significant investments in technology that are paying off for our customers and our operations as we leverage data and digital tools for better customer experience, increased productivity, and improved profitability. Further, we're executing on a multifaceted diversification strategy to improve our operating results and ensure resilience in times of uncertainty. And finally, with our strong balance sheet, we're investing to win in an industry where secular trends, stimulus funding, and the reshoring of manufacturing are setting up the largest players to capitalize on a decade-long runway of economic investment like this industry has never seen in North America. So with that, come back, and Sherif will allow you to continue to ask some questions that might be of interest.
Very informative overview. For those in the audience that might be more familiar with United Rentals or Ashtead Sunbelt, can you talk a bit about where Herc fits into the landscape of rental companies in North America? Where you've taken some differentiated steps versus the peers.
Yeah, great question. Well, look, you know, we are one of the major three players, along with United Rentals and Ashtead. And we've really been in a position where we've been able to reinvigorate this company from its early base of being the industry leader to being somewhat, you know, moderating during the early 2000s to mid-teens until we came back and reinvigorated this company and built back the history and the tradition that it's been known for. It's always been a company that's been focused on big customers and national accounts, and we've reestablished that capability for this company to be able to address these mega projects and the trends that are in the industry.
You know, what makes us, you know, sort of different is that, there's a lot of culture and a lot of, background in this company for having premium products and premium gear, being able to solutionize for our customers, and being able to address large customer capability and needs. So, you know, we all have, you know, tremendous capability and, you know, our peers are fine companies that, you know, do good things, but we are on par with them. And the only thing that really differentiates us to them is probably scale at this point, but that'll come for us over a period of time. It's just a matter of us continuing to grow. If you look back a little bit, 2016, we operated from about 200 locations. Today, we're operating from over 400 locations.
Back then, we had about $3 billion in fleet. Today, we have in excess of $6 billion in fleet. So that scale is coming as we invest properly and properly utilize capital, you know, to the best of our ability, to make sure that we're growing and growing in a responsible way.
Mm-hmm. And you touched on mega projects, which has been a big theme for the industry. When we think about these projects, how much more fleet than usual do they take in? When we think about the terms when you're bidding on these projects, how do they differentiate versus a more typical rental contract?
Yeah, I mean, I think, well, let's just use an example, right? So, $10 billion LNG project, for example, right? So when you think about that, that's probably running the span of 10 years. And you're probably talking about, you know, 2% of that total project cost is rental revs for the players. And so you got about $200 million over that 10 years. And so if you assume, you know, a dollar utilization of, say, 40%, then that's really talking about, you know, somewhere in the neighborhood of $500 million of gear to do that project over that 10-year period.
So if you, you know, think about that, that's probably a local typical branch probably holds $20 million of fleet, and you're really talking about something that would look like 2.5 times that. So plenty of opportunity there, you know, for the big players. And then from on the term side, you know, I think, you know, there's a few nuanced pieces to that, but the reality is that that gear is probably going to be on rent for longer, and have less touch points.
And so when you ultimately look at that from a dollar utilization perspective, I would tell you that, you know, that profile doesn't materially differ from, you know, a national account profile or even a local profile, where you have more touch points, you know, more delivery, you know, that sort of activity. And so I would tell you, you know, on whole, they, they resemble each other.
Mm-hmm. And then you've spoken a bit about the bidding process in the past, quoting for a certain number of SKUs, and at times, the projects will take on more gear than originally expected. How does that impact some of the utilization or pricing that you're able to or margin that you're able to realize on these types of contracts?
Yeah, great question. As Mark mentioned, you know, over when you look at these national accounts versus mega projects versus local accounts, we can probably justify some more competitive pricing on a bundle of products or a basket of products that go into one of these mega projects, because we don't have the touch points, and we don't have, you know, as many types of movement of that gear. So that makes up for some of the margin that might be on a more competitive bidding basis. But that said, I think the industry is disciplined, and the pricing is pretty disciplined, and the cost of gear, everybody's paying for that is, you know, inflationary costs associated with that. But.
To your question specifically, when you're on that and you bid a bundle of products, generally, on these large projects, these contractors need gear that's not part of that bid basket. And that's where you supply other products that generally go out at spot market pricing or higher pricing than what would normally be in a bid basket. And some of that might be specialty gear, which is traditionally higher margin business as well. So you see other activity happen, and it's always important to, you know, have your foot in the door, participate in these projects.
Some of them might be a bit more competitive, but on whole, when you're done, because of the less touch points and the other products that you may provide to that particular contractor, you're gonna have a very nice margin profile come out of that bit of business.
And then thinking about these mega projects more broadly, you've defined them as $250 million and above. You know, there's been a lot of headlines in the news lately around LNG and EV facilities, in particular, projects being canceled or pushed out or delayed. What is the actual pace of these mega projects? Are they coming into the market? Are you seeing them expand, and, you know, how do you expect them to ramp over the coming years?
Yeah, I mean, great question. I mean, I think when we, you know, given our scale today, we're not trying to cover, you know, the Earth, so to speak, and be everything to every one of these mega projects. We're sort of, you know, we've targeted 10%-15% of this mega project activity in 2024. So what that does is, it gives us tremendous visibility into those projects, right? So we can see, you know, with the relationships that we developed, have a much better feel for, you know, when they're starting, if there's some fits and starts. You know, to your direct question, you know, we haven't seen any cancellations, you know, inside of the project environment that we're operating in.
So, you know, I think that we're still very much in the early innings here as well, and I think that you'll see, you know, as we specifically move through the year, you'll see a ramp of our activity and fleet on rent directly related to this large project activity as we work our way through the year.
Yeah, but to your point, look, there have been noted delays on EV projects.
Sure.
A nd LNG. Just so happens we're not on those, so.
Mm-hmm.
That's not impacting us.
When you think about mega projects, you mentioned you weren't on the ones that were delayed or canceled. When you think about the whole population of those mega projects, are you going after specific verticals or the whole population, or how should we think about that?
Well, I really think what you have to look at is the ones that we're going after are verticals, and it could be across a broad gamut of verticals. But it's really around where we have density and geography and fleet and where we have customer relationships, where we've done business with those contractors or established new relationships with those contractors. So it's really targeted. As Mark said, we're not trying to cover the Earth, as one company uses as their slogan. We're trying to focus on where we have density today, where we have fleet, where we have capability, and where we have relationships with contractors that are performing on those projects.
Mm-hmm. You had your Investor Day in November, and there are some investors that felt there was a slight change for outlook for 2024 after reporting Q4. Can you speak a bit to how the landscape has shifted over the end of 2023? And since then, have you seen any other big trends improve or decline in a similar fashion?
Yeah, great question. I think, you know, when we set out, you know, and looked at 2024, essentially, you know, we guided to what we had visibility to at that point in time. And I think all of this conversation in here, you know, as you think about, you know, the ramping activity of mega projects, is probably, for us, a bit more toward the back half of the year. I think probably what you'll see is, you know, a run rate, as we exit, that's probably greater than the overall average growth rate that we would have for the year. And I think there's a lot of good news in that.
You know, as we exited 2023, we had about $250 million of fleet that essentially there was a lot of supply chain disruption through the front half of 2023. It improved as we made our way through the back half of the year. But essentially, there's about $250 million of fleet that we get to put to work, first and foremost. So I almost think of, with my CFO hat on, is that I'm shifting that out of 2023 spend and into 2024 spend, and so we'll effectively and efficiently utilize that fleet first. And then I think the other good news piece of this is that the overall health of the OEMs has improved drastically, even in the last 12 months.
And so, you know, that allows us a bit more flexibility in meeting the demand of our customers. And so we can kind of go at this more in a just-in-time sort of manner, as before, you know, you were out 12 months or 18 months and trying to sort of align and guess when that fleet was gonna land, and did that match the demand of our customer base? And so there's a lot of good news wrapped in that.
You mentioned lead times were 12-18 months now. What do they look like now, and where are you seeing tightness still with acquiring equipment?
Yeah, look, I would say lead times are back to pre-COVID levels, with the exception of a handful of categories. So, you know, we're more in that 60-90 day window lead time to be able to secure product that we need from most of the OEMs. Still tightness on aerial work platforms, telehandlers, and certain truck chassis for, you know, different types of construction, you know, equipment trucks that you might have, whether it be water trucks or stake body trucks or other things like that. So there is some tightness in that area and aerial work platforms. But we expect, you know, on the access side, those manufacturers to be more healthy as we go through this year and come out of 2024 and go into 2025.
'Cause a couple of the majors have established what I'll call nearshoring manufacturing capability in Mexico, and they're ramping those up. In our discussions with them, they expect to be, you know, pretty much up their ramp by the end of this year so that they're contributing healthily, you know, to our fleet requirements going into 2025.
Mm-hmm. And has this disruption at all got you testing or expanding suppliers in some areas where there's been equipment?
We did through COVID, in particular in access. We expanded, you know, supplier base a bit. We've always operated with three primary suppliers in access. One primarily focused on the Canadian market, 'cause it's a Canadian company. And then two primary in North America, but in the U.S. But we've added a third, and we've experimented with some other brands to make sure that we're not caught short because of an OEM's, you know, supply chain issues. But that said, look, we're still focused on a limited number of brands. That's where we'd like to be.
That's what's easiest for our technicians to learn, to be able to repair, to have the right spare parts, and to get those, you know, once they come back in, get them repaired, get the maintenance done, and put them back on the ready line. So, you know, our strategy is around fewer suppliers, not broader suppliers.
Mm-hmm.
If the supply chain continues to be healthy, we'll continue to, you know, to look to maintain that. But if supply chain has some disruptions, look, we'll protect our ability to take care of our customers with additional, you know, brands. But that isn't really what our primary focus would be in healthy times.
And so we've touched on mega projects. I'd like to turn to local markets. Overall demand is still very strong. You've highlighted some slowing in local or smaller projects. What's driving that? And is it any specific verticals or end markets that might be contributing a bit more to that slowdown?
Yeah, I mean, I think investors like to use the word slowing, and I think we just see it more as a moderating local market environment as we sort of enter 2024. I think it's important to remember, right, like post-COVID, you know, local markets were growing, at least for us, they were growing at a double-digit pace year over year for the last three years. And so, you know, I think when I look at that and look through that, you know, generally, we're probably looking at a mid-single digit sort of growth rate at the local level now, and I think that that's very consistent with, you know, a normalized upcycle, you know, as we sort of enter into and operate through 2024.
Yeah, and I think, you know, to support what Mark said, today, the ABI came out. While it's not over 50, it, it went up, and it's at 49.5. And some segments within that were well over 50, so I think we'll continue to see that as a positive trend.
Yeah.
You know, not back to where it was pre-COVID, but certainly a positive trend, you know, based on the most recent time period.
And so as you think about maybe the second half or 2025, do you would you expect those to maybe pick up in those local markets? And, you know, if so, what would you.
2024 or 2025?
Sorry, 2025. Yeah.
2025?
Second half of 2024 into 2025.
Into 2025, okay.
Is that something you'd expect to pick up? What would be the catalyst to drive those? Is this something where you kind of have to see interest rate cuts to drive some of the financing for those types of projects?
Yeah, you know, I guess when I think about that, right, you have, I think certainly, you know, falling interest rate environment would be a driver. You know, if I had to pull out my crystal ball, you know, that's probably more impactful into 2025. I guess the other thing that I would say to you is that, you know, really sort of this retail and office space for us, in particular, really hasn't recovered post-COVID. And so I would tell you, it's really more upside for us as that begins to improve, then I think, you know, we would see that as nothing but upside as we sort of walk, you know, through 2024 and into 2025.
Mm-hmm. And just wanted to turn a bit to utilization. Understand there is some seasonality to it. Do you expect to be seeing more shallow seasonality this year, just given some of the choices around CapEx spend? And in 12 months from now, does it seem like utilization will remain at these levels? What are the sort of puts and takes that could drive it higher or lower?
Yeah, look, Look, there's always a seasonal issue to our business, depending upon where you are. You know, in North America, obviously, when you're in the southern states, you know, there really isn't a tremendous seasonal issue. There's more around a holiday issue, at certain times of the year. And then when you get into the colder states, there's obviously less construction. But that also brings, you know, other opportunities around heat and, you know, other activities that we provide equipment for, snowplowing equipment and things like that. So, while there are seasonal issues in general, I think what you're seeing is we'll return in 2024 and then into 2025, into what will be a more normalized seasonal cadence.
I think, you know, during COVID, everything sort of got turned upside down, and then 2023 was an adjustment year. And with the improvement in the supply chain capability, I think what you'll see is less peaks and valleys or more normalized peaks and valleys, relative to seasons, more like pre-COVID than during COVID and immediately after COVID.
Mm-hmm. And then, you know, to start the year in January, we saw some very poor weather. Do you expect any impact from this, or has it driven any disruption?
No, not, y ou know, look, weather happens at all times of the year, and for us, weather could be good, right? We like not to report on weather or talk about weather or use weather as an excuse in our business, because we do business in all types of weather. So, you know, it could be a hurricane, which would be bad weather, which would be very good for us. It could be, you know, fires, that could be very good. It could be intense heat. That could be very good. It could be, 'cause we supply air conditioning. Could be intense cold. That could be good for us because we have heating equipment.
So, you know, we don't tend to look at weather as being either a, you know, plus or a negative, except if there's a big hurricane, you know, and then it might be, you know, some incremental opportunity for us around that. So, we tend not to use, you know, weather as a measure. I think we see weather every year in various, you know, regional areas, and it varies from region to region, state to state, city to city.
Mm-hmm. Sitting here in March, is there anything, utilization demand that hasn't trended the way you thought it would? Any shifts that you would highlight?
No, I would say we're seeing a very normal year from our standpoint.
Mm-hmm.
You know, we always have a, you know, the first quarter is always our most difficult quarter, 'cause you're coming out of winter or, you know, as you approach spring. And then you move into our higher seasonality, you know, time during the second and third quarter, which is our peak periods. And then in the fourth quarter, you see a return, you know, to a, you know, more winter environment and seasonal, you know, holiday environment, which, you know, in North America, weather you come through Thanksgiving and then Christmas and New Year's, that type of seasonality and holiday activity. So I think we'll see a more normal trend in 2024.
Mm-hmm. I wanted to turn to M&A for a bit. You know, as you look at greenfield expansion versus M&A going forward, how do you view that for new locations or new territories? How do you weigh those decisions when you're considering either investment?
Yeah, look, for us, you know, we'd always prefer to do a greenfield because it's, it's easier for us to get our culture in place and to ramp up a business and to grow. But one of the limitations and one of the challenges is the availability of real estate. Real estate is sort of the, the long pole in the tent, if you will, due to, you know, all the regulations around cities and activity, to be able to do the type of things that we do, which is operate equipment, operate in, you know, hours from 6 A.M. to beyond 6 P.M., to have fuel and oil and those type of things, you know, on site. There are some limitations around zoning and capability. So real estate is the long, long pole in the tent.
When we can't find real estate, and when there is an opportunity for an M&A activity that's, you know, synergistic with us, that doesn't necessarily cover the same customer base, we'll look to do that. Obviously, we can ramp our business up quicker with an M&A, but there's a cost associated with that. We acquire customers, we acquire fleet, we acquire locations, we acquire people. So the ramp-up is quicker, but the synergies might take a little bit longer to get, rather than the synergies in a greenfield type of an operation that we immediately get. So, you know, there's a trade-off. It's a make versus buy decision for us, and it really revolves around the availability of real estate in those markets.
Typically, when going after M&A, are you, in acquiring new branches, seeing new customers, or is this about building density in certain territories for existing customers more often?
Yeah, it's a little bit of both. You know, I think you know, we've got an overarching strategy where we're trying to generate leverage inside of the markets that we participate in. And so, you know, again, back to Larry's point, you've got a make or buy decision first and foremost, and sometimes the make isn't really a decision point at all, because you can't get the real estate. I think one of the things that we found interesting, you know, through our consolidation over the last you know, three years is you know, part of what we get in this, in these acquisitions is a customer list, right? And what we've seen is that there's very, very little overlap between our existing customer base and their customer base.
And so, you know, maybe upwards of 90%+ non-overlapping. And so again, that then allows us to sort of take and expand the wallet share of that customer, you know, with the specialty product, 'cause generally speaking, these are gen rent sort of M&A opportunities. And so we're able to then expand the customer wallet by, you know, pushing our specialty product into those existing customers as well.
Mm-hmm. You've consistently held to about $500 million a year target for M&A. Have you changed your strategy at all with the shift in local versus national? You mentioned, mostly being general rental acquisitions. You know, is this something where over time you might shift to acquire more specialty, or you're filling in gaps in the portfolio at all?
Yeah, no, I, I don't see it as a local versus national sort of play. I think what we have is, you know, M&A by its very nature is opportunistic, right? And so, you know, I think first and foremost, we're looking at it from a strategical perspective and saying: What do we need inside of this marketplace to generate more leverage? And then I think once we're, you know, decision ready, then you look to the fleet, and that fleet is fungible, right? And so, you know, if you look back over the last 3+ years, you know, we've spent about that $500 million. You know, it's a, it's a guidepost for us.
There's nothing hard and fast about $500 million necessarily, but that's just sort of how the opportunities have flown over this first three years, and, you know, I think that's what we would look to continue to sort of build off of as we move into 2024.
But you know, from a standpoint of whether it's GenRent or specialty, we look for both, right? And as Mark said, it's opportunistic, and if there's a specialty business available in a market that we're in, that we wanna, you know, grow in terms of the product portfolio and the customer reach and the adjacency to our existing products, we'll go after that as well as a general rental business that'll give us more density in a market that we want to build density in.
Mm-hmm. As we think about specialty, you know, all the companies, rental companies, have taken a slightly different approach with regards to specialty. What's Herc's approach?
Yeah, our approach really is around adjacencies to our existing product portfolio.
Mm-hmm.
That makes sense. For instance, recently, you know, we have a very big earthmoving focus in our business, and recently, from a specialty standpoint, we've moved into trench shoring, which is a natural adjacency to earthmoving.
Mm-hmm.
So that's really our focus, is making sure that the businesses are adjacent, so we can add more value to an existing customer that we're already doing business with and expand our share of wallet within that customer. Because it's easier to do business with a customer that's already yours.
Mm-hmm.
We just look at where can we, you know, where can we put more product that's adjacent to what we're already doing?
I think, you know, maybe just to follow on to, to Larry's point there, you know, your specialty business really provides an opportunity for somewhere between, you know, 800 to maybe even upwards of 1,000 basis points of dollar utilization improvement over your GenRent. And, you know, as Larry mentioned earlier, you know, we'll be moving the Cinelease assets off, and that will take our specialty percentage down to somewhere near 20%. You know, we've historically said we had a stated goal of getting to 30%. You know, now we'll sort of walk that up as we march through the next several years. But I think, you know, first and foremost, we'll probably get to 25% and then 30%.
But there's so much benefit, you know, not only from a margin perspective, but also, to Larry's point, you know, customers and being able to service them with a full suite of goods.
Mm-hmm. And you've, you've mentioned about targeting adjacencies. Are there any specific areas you're excited about or that you're focused on, maybe particularly with the shift in project types that might be growing now?
Yeah, look, you know, we have focused on building out our HVAC area in terms of both heating and cooling areas around pumping and different types of activity, whether it be dewatering pumps or whether it be, you know, general pumping capability in industrial environments. We're building out what we call our ProResources business, which is general tooling and equipment that goes into industrial turnarounds and that capability, so that's sort of grown. Trench shoring has been a very big focus for us in terms of M&A activity, to build that capability, that expertise, and that solutionizing ability. And then, you know, I think the other area that we've been on a path and we're continuing to be on a path is our ability to focus on emergency response.
Certainly, COVID brought us into all new types of emergency response type of gearing, whether it be, you know, air purifiers and things that, you know, are used in emergency situations, you know, around hospital environments and that type of activity. So, we continue to build out those specialty areas. All of our specialty areas provide a level of what I'll call near engineering or solutionizing, and that engineering and expertise around that type of equipment allows us to, you know, charge a higher price, have higher dollar utilization, and ultimately, higher margins around that equipment.
Mm-hmm. And I wanted to turn to some of the scale that you're building, that you discussed in your opening statements. You've mentioned in the past, about $9 billion-$10 billion of fleet range is where you can scale and also expand free cash flow at the same time. You know, does the pullback in CapEx change your expected path to that fleet level? And long term, is it more of a function of shifting year to year, but a consistent trend?
Yeah, you know, I think I'll let Mark maybe follow on after I say a few things. You know, we're already at about $6.3 billion in fleet, and to his point, I don't think we really pulled back on CapEx, 'cause we had about $250 million come in in Q4, which we were not able to put to work because of seasonality and holidays. So that's really 2024 CapEx in our mind, plus what we've said that we're gonna spend, and we'll see that ramp as mega projects ramp. So I don't know that I can, you know, give you an exact time on.
Mm-hmm.
When and if we'll get to $9 billion. I think a lot will depend upon what happens with business growth in North America, you know, over the next several years. And, you know, and I think, you know, if we get there, that'll be great. That means we're growing our business, 'cause we're gonna invest responsibly. We're not gonna over-fleet. We're gonna make sure that our revenue growth outpaces our fleet growth, focus on fleet efficiency as we go forward, and that'll give us the type of margins and returns that, you know, we think we should and could deliver in the business.
Perfectly answered, Larry. Nothing to add there.
Just like a CFO, huh?
That's right.
I wanted to touch on market share for a moment. You know, for those in the audience, they might be familiar, more familiar with the U.K. market, very high levels of rental penetration. You know, the North American market is far below that. You know, when we think long term, the top three or four rental companies, national players, where can rental penetration go in North America, and how much, o r how, what pace do you think you can kind of grow that share?
Yeah, look, I, I think, you know, certainly what's in the U.K. and in Japan, you know, we have, whether it's 80% or 90% rental penetration, I don't think we'll see that, you know, anytime in my lifetime in North America. You know, the top three now have, you know, roughly 35%-37% market share. You know, I think there will be further consolidation, and I think there will be growth and in terms of penetration, but I don't ever see, you know, in the, you know, in the foreseeable future, penetration approaching anywhere near what you have in, in the U.K. or in Japan.
I, you know, I think what you have is vast geographies, you know, very large country, a lot of real estate, you know, a lot of activity going on, lots of very strong dealer networks in North America that will keep that penetration, you know, probably below the 50% mark, at least for the foreseeable future. So but that said, there will be consolidation. There'll be plenty of opportunity for us to grow as for our peers to grow, and I think you'll see the big three continuing to grow and consolidate in North America.
And lastly, I wanted to touch on used equipment. Prices have been moderating fairly significantly from elevated levels over the last year. Does that impact your fleet or CapEx plans at all?
No. I mean, I think, you know, 2023 was a different year for many reasons, right? And we sold, you know, we sold a bunch of gear in 2023 that was sort of pent up, that we had to sweat from 2021 and 2022 just because we couldn't get additional gear. You know, I think when you look forward to 2024, you know, we'll probably sell 20%-30% less gear in 2024. And I think, you know, with that, we have internally, you know, we're strategizing now to move a lot of our.
Where you're seeing this moderation from a price point perspective at the auctions, we're moving that to the wholesale and retail channel, where, you know, your return is significantly greater, and we finally put ourselves in that position, sort of post-spend. We're kind of, you know, 7-8 years, so all of the gear now is our gear, and it gives us much more freedom and ability to sort of sell that gear in the wholesale and retail channel, offsetting any sort of moderation.
You know, when Mark says it's our gear, you know, when I got here in 2015, the gear was, you know, all bought, you know, on low bid, and there were multiple brands and multiple levels of quality. Since 2015, and now that's completely the gear that we have, other than what we might have acquired during an acquisition. That's completely gear that we spec'd for the market as premium quality, rental, rugged gear, and that's why we're able now to sell that through a wholesale and retail channel and command premium prices for that.
Mm-hmm. Thank you. And with that, I think we're just out of time. Thank you so much for joining us today.
Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you, everybody.