Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Gartner Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time on the session. I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker today, David Cohen, Gardner's GVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for Gartner's 4th quarter 2019 earnings call. With me today are Gene Hall, Chief Executive Officer and Craig Safian, Chief Financial Officer. This call will include a discussion of 4th Quarter 20 financial results and our outlook for 2020, as disclosed in today's press release. In addition to today's press release, we have provided a detailed review of our financials and business metrics in an earnings supplement for investors and analysts.
Release in the earnings supplement on our website, investor. Gartner.com. We ask that you limit your questions to 1 and a follow-up. On the call, unless stated otherwise, all references to revenue and contribution margin
the
references to organic growth exclude the recently acquired Topo. All growth rates in Gene's comments are FX neutral unless stated other us. Reconciliations for all non GAAP numbers we use are available in the Investor Relations section of the gartner.com website. Finally, all contract values and associated growth rates we discuss are based on 2019 foreign exchange rates, unless stated otherwise. As set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, certain statements made on this call may constitute forward looking statements.
Forward looking statements can vary materially from actual results and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those contained in the company's 2018 annual report on Form 10 K and quarterly reports on Form Ten Q as well as in other filings with the SEC. I encourage all of you to review the risk factors listed in these documents. Now I will turn the call over to Gartner's Chief Executive Officer, Gene Hall.
Good morning, and thanks for joining us. In 2019, we continue to deliver strong performances across our business. We made progress on our core strategy of establishing leading market positions in every role across the enterprise, while continuing to drive innovation. Recoup our sales forces and reduced open sales positions to record lows. We made substantial investments in GBS products, service and sales to accelerate future growth.
Support sustained long term double digit growth. We helped more than 15,000 enterprise clients 100 Countries around the world with their mission critical priorities. Around the world and position our company for the long term benefit of our shareholders. In 2019, total revenues were up 11%, fueled by double digit growth in each of our business segments, research, conferences and consulting. Research, our largest and most profitable segment, is the core of our client value proposition.
Our research business was up 11% year over year. The Gartner formula for sustained long term double digit growth continues to drive success in our research business. As we previously highlighted, the Gartner formula consists of indispensable indispensable insights, exceptional talent, sales excellence, enabling infrastructure For each of these elements, we drive relentless, globally consistent execution of best practices and continuous improvement in innovation. Global Technology Sales or GTS serves leaders and their teams within IT. This group represents more than 80% of our total research contract value.
GTS contract value grew 12% against a tough compare over the prior year. In most of our top markets, including the U. S, UK and Canada, we had strong double digit growth. We also had growth of more than 20% in a number of markets received from our products. Despite these The single biggest factor was The next largest factor was leadership changes in Germany and India, which we've also discussed previously.
Finally, we had challenges in China. So while GTS had some challenges, we achieved strong double digit contract value growth of 12%. And we put in we put actions in place to address these challenges and expect to see improvements over time. We continue to have vast market opportunity across all sectors, sizes and geographies. We've made investments over the past 2 years including sales headcount that position us well to capture that market opportunity.
Following 12% growth in GTS headcount over the past 2 years, we expect GTS headcount growth for 2020 in the high single digits. Last quarter, I outlined 3 sales optimization initiatives: dynamic territory planning, just in time recruiting and just in time training. Over time, these initiatives will help us align our cost growth with our revenue growth, while enabling us to train and deploy our sales hires more effectively. We estimate that these new programs are Global Business Sales or GBS serves leaders and their teams beyond IT, and represents about 20% of our total research contract value. As well as other major GBS contract value continued to accelerate growing 8 percent organically.
Retention improved more than 400 basis points for the year, and productivity was up significantly. GBS growth accelerated throughout 2019, though we did have some challenges. The GBS marketing practice has some products unique to marketing that have weak retention and low profitability. Marketing contract value grew only 4% largely due to these products. As we align our cost growth to revenue growth, we're transitioning to these lower margin, lower retention products to more profitable GXL products.
We're making this transition as the lower margin products come up for renewal during 2020. And we expect we will this will have a negative impact on our 2020 CD growth that will improve profitability going forward. Our GXL product line continued to gain momentum with contract value increasing $43,000,000 during 2019. DXL products provide greater value to clients because they're tailored to the client's individual needs. This in turn results in higher prices per user and stronger retention.
Opportunities because we can sell these high value products throughout our client organizations. We implemented the Gartner formula for growth in GBS. In 2018, we invested in the products, processes and sales force growth. In 2019, growth accelerated in our GXL products on. We have built a great foundation for future growth.
Our Conferences segment also delivered a terrific performance in 2019, with double digit revenue growth of 18% and conference attendee growth of 8%. Gartner Conferences combining outstanding value of our research, which the immersive experience of live interactions, making every conference we produce the most important gathering of the executives we serve. Looking ahead to 2020, we plan to introduce more security and risk management and data and analytics summits. And in Europe for GBS, we launched Marketing Symposium Expo and Supply Chain Planning Signing Silent. Consulting segment also achieved double digit growth in 2019, with revenues up 14%.
Gartner Consulting is an extension search and provides clients a deeper level of involvement through extended project based work to help them execute their most strategic initiatives. Our growth was a combination of We expect another good year in 2020, but likely at a lower growth rate given how strong 2019 was. Over the past several years, we've Summarizing, we delivered another strong year across all three of our business segments. Looking ahead, we are well positioned for sustained long term growth. With the great strategic position of GTS and GBS, together with leveraging the investments we've made, We expect
Greg. Thank you, Gene, and good morning, everyone. 2019 marked another year of strong revenue growth for Gartner. Global Technology Sales, the largest part of our business, again, delivered double digit growth. Global Business sales accelerated, growing more than 8 the with a compelling value proposition across all enterprise functions is working.
Conferences and consulting had outstanding years as well. For year over year, financial performance for 2019 included total contract value growth of 12% FX neutral total revenue growth of 11%, FX neutral adjusted EBITDA growth of 2% diluted adjusted EPS of $3.90 and free cash flow of $462,000,000. Demand for our services remains robust around the world. And as our 2020 outlook demonstrates, we expect strong top line growth to continue as we adjust cost growth. To align with revenue growth.
4th quarter revenue was $1,200,000,000 up 11% as reported and on an FX neutral basis. Top line growth was impacted by about 60 basis points in Q4 from the product retirements we discussed in prior quarters. In addition, contribution margin was 63 flat versus the prior year. EBITDA was $218,000,000, up 3% year over year and 5% FX neutral. Adjusted EPS was $1.18 with upside from a lower than expected tax rate.
And free cash flow in the quarter was $40,000,000. Our research business had a strong 4th quarter. Research revenue grew 11% year over year reported basis and 12% on an FX neutral basis in the 4th quarter. 4th quarter contribution margin was 70%. Total contract value was $3,400,000,000 at December 31, growth of 12% versus the prior year.
We always report contract value and FX neutral terms. For the full year 2019, research revenues increased by 9% on a reported basis, 11% on an FX neutral basis. The gross contribution margin was 70%, up 56 basis points from the prior year. I'll now review the details of our performance for both GTS and GBS. In the fourth quarter, GTS contract value increased 12% versus the prior year.
Most of our top markets, including in the U. S, UK and Canada, we maintained strong double digit growth. And by utilizing our sales excellence playbook, we were able to drive As Gene just detailed, GTS CV decelerated due to 3 primary factors: 1st, in the largest factor was the impact of discussed previously, we made sales leadership changes in both Germany and India, and both of those changes intersected with a tougher macro environment in those markets. And third, we had challenges in China, where the economy has slowed and we also made a leadership change. As Jean mentioned, we put in place to address $2,800,000,000 on December 31, representing just over 80% of our total contract value.
Client retention for GTS remains at around 82% where it has been running throughout the year. Quarter, down 96 basis points year over year. Our well retention rates show that our clients spend more with us each and every year because of the value we provide to them. GTS new business grew 7% versus enterprises through sales of additional services and upgrades. As with CV and wallet retention, which are all related, we faced difficult compares this year.
We ended the 4th quarter with around 13,000 GTS Enterprises, up 1% compared to Q4 2018. Net client additions were impacted by higher churn and lower ads in the small enterprise part of the market. These tend to be lower spending clients. A key factor was a shift in strategy specifically in the small tech company sector that we've discussed previously. We expect to lap the strategy shift during the course of 2020.
The average contract value per enterprise continues to grow. It now stands at $214,000 enterprise and GTS, up 12% year over year. Growth in CV per enterprise reflects both price increases as well as and GTS, or an increase of 5% year over year. As part of our planning for 2020 and our Salesforce Optimization initiatives, we moderated our growth in sales headcount exiting the year. This is in contrast to the end of 2018 when we did a higher than normal level of advanced hiring.
We expect to see productivity improve in 2020 as overall Salesforce tenure increases, and we continue to make improvements in recruiting, training and sales tools. These changes are consistent with our commitment We expect GTS headcount growth for 2020 in the high single digits. In part because of the above in the first quarter of 2019. So, we're going to be able to We estimate that these new programs are the equivalent of adding 3 to 5 points to our reported headcount growth. Beyond 2020, we would expect to resume headcount growth modestly below CV growth.
For GTS, the year over headcount was $99,000 per salesperson, down 13% versus the fourth quarter of last year. The higher headcount growth late last year and into this year brought down the average tenure as new sales people take time to get to full productivity. One of the benefits of moderating the headcount growth exiting this year and moving into 2020 is that the average tenure will increase, which should improve productivity. Turning to Global Business Sales. GBS contract value was $647,000,000 at the end of the 4th quarter or about 20 of our total contract value.
The momentum we saw last quarter continued with organic CV growth increasing to 8% year over year. GBS CV growth, including the recent acquisition of Topo, increased 9% year over year. We grew across all of our major functional areas with particular strength in percent year over year. Our marketing practice grew GXL products as they come up for renewal. We're making this change to better align our costs and revenues.
This transition will continue in 2020 and will have an impact as we move through the year. While this will have a short term negative impact to our TV growth rates, we'll see the benefits over the medium and long term in terms of increased profitability. The impact of research revenue is built into our guidance. The acceleration in GBS contract value was driven by strength in GXL, which as we've detailed is an important part of our strategy and continues to contribute a larger and larger share of GBS CV. Total GBS new business was up 16% in the quarter, driven by GXL new business, which was up 31 year over year.
Value. We sold $58,000,000 of GXL new business in Q4 up 31% versus the prior year quarter. We continue to make great dollars. GXL contract value increased 55 percent year over year from $191,000,000 to $297,000,000. And now makes up 46% of GBS CV, up about 14 percentage points from Q4 last year.
We are driving increased client engagement through expanded service teams and growing adoption of individualized content and service. The standalone quarter, we drove attrition rates down for GBS. For contracts that were up for renewal in the 4th quarter, attrition improved by 5.20 base points over having an impact. At the end of the 4th quarter, we had 869 quota bearing associates in GBS or growth of 10%. Headcount was down sequentially as we continue to align our cost growth to our revenue growth.
We expect GBS headcount growth in the mid single digits in 2020 we focus on realizing the benefits of the investments we've made. For GBS, the year over year net contract value increase or NCVI divided by beginning period quota bearing headcount was $67,000 per salesperson, up significantly from last year's $14,000 salesperson. The inclusion of TOO contract value positively impacted GBS productivity by about $5000 for sales persons. Conferences revenues increased by 11% year over year in Q4 to $217,000,000. FX neutral growth was 12%.
4th quarter contribution margin was 53 percent, up 47 basis points versus the year ago period. We had 15 destination conferences in the fourth quarter. On a same conference, FX neutral basis, revenues were up 9% with a 1% increase in attendees. Attendee growth was impacted primarily by the merging of 2 infrastructure and cloud related conferences into 1. 4th quarter ticket bookings were up 11% year over year.
For the full year 2019, revenue increased by 16% on a reported basis, and 18% on an FX neutral basis. Gross contribution margin was 51%, an increase of 20 basis points from 2018. Turning to consulting. 4th quarter consulting revenues increased by 9% year over year to $104,000,000. FX neutral growth was 9%.
Consulting contribution margin was 28% in the 4th quarter, up 34 basis points versus the prior year quarter. Labor based revenues were $80,000,000, up 9% versus Q4 of last year or 10% on an FX neutral basis. Labor based billable headcount of 815 was up 10%. Utilization was 60%. Backlog at December 31 was $116,000,000, up 7% year over year on an FX neutral basis.
Our backlog provides us with about 4.5 months of forward revenue coverage. In line with our operating target. Contract optimization revenues were up 7% versus the prior year quarter as we have detailed in the past, this part of our of the consulting segment is highly variable. Full year consulting revenue was up 11% a reported basis and 14% on an FX neutral basis, and its gross contribution margin of 30% was up 108 basis points from 2018. SG and A increased 14% year over year in the 4th quarter and 15% on an FX neutral basis The growth in SG And A reflects the double digit headcount growth earlier in the year in both GTS and GBS.
For the the structure cost growth with revenue growth. EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $218,000,000, up 3% year over year on a reported basis and up 5% on an FX neutral basis. In the fourth quarter of this year, EBITDA was adversely affected by about 2 percentage points. A $4,000,000 impact due to the product retirements we've discussed. Taking that into consideration, underlying FX neutral EBITDA was up Depreciation in the quarter was service.
Amortization was flat sequentially. Integration expenses were down year over year as we've moved past the biggest part of the integration work. Net interest expense excluding deferred financing costs in the quarter was $25,000,000, up from $23,000,000 in the fourth quarter of 2018. Net interest expenses up due to a modestly higher interest rate as a result of the road forward of our floating to fixed interest rate hedges. The Q4 adjusted tax rate, which we used for the calculation of adjusted net income, was 34% for the quarter as we incurred less incremental tax costs associated with our intellectual property than anticipated.
The adjusted tax rate for above our expectations primarily due to a lower tax dollars. EPS growth for the year was 7%. Operating cash flow for the full year was $565,000,000 compared to $471,000,000 last year. CapEx for the year was $149,000,000 and cash acquisition and integration payments and other non recurring items were approximately $45,000,000. Free cash flow for the full year was $462,000,000, which is down 1% versus the prior year.
Adjusted for divested operations and working capital timing benefits in 2018, free cash flow grew 13% for the year. 2019 was a strong cash flow year as we made significant improvements in our collections process and benefited from lower cash interest costs. Free cash flow conversion from adjusted net income was 130%. Our December 31st debt balance was about $2,200,000,000. Our debt is effectively 100% fixed rate.
Our gross leverage ratio is now about 3.2 times EBITDA. We repurchased $58,000,000 of stock in the quarter at an average price of about $154 share. For the full year, we repurchased $199,000,000 We have the same. We deploy our free cash flow and balance sheet flexibility by returning capital to our shareholders through our buyback programs and through strategic value enhancing M and A. Turning to guidance which includes a return to aligning our cost growth with revenue growth.
As you can see, we've revised the presentation to simplify the way we provide guidance. The new approach is intended to convey more best view of what we expect to deliver in 2020. Based on our experience last year, we believe providing simpler, more transparent guidance will be helpful to you in building your in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, we had a using the revenue growth and EBITDA margins as a starting point. The EPS and free cash flow results will vary depending on where revenue, EBITDA and everything else in between end.
3 additional context points. 1st, our 2019 ending contract value and corresponding growth rates are a key driver of our 2020 research revenue. 2nd, advanced bookings and consulting backlog are the metrics that drive our conferences and consulting revenue guidance. We had solid advanced bookings in our conferences business and our consulting backlog is up high single digits. 3rd, we continue to invest to support and drive the future growth of our business.
In 2017 through the first half of twenty nineteen, we invested ahead of growth. 2020 is a return to our typical approach of investing as we grow. The highlights of our full year guidance as follows. We expect FX neutral revenue growth and research of about 9.5%, conferences growth of about 10% consulting growth of about 3%. The consulting outlook reflects very challenging compares versus a strong contract optimization year in 2019.
The result of these segment growth rates is an outlook for consolidated FX neutral revenue growth of approximately 9%. At today's FX rates, we expect FX neutral growth rates to be roughly in line with our reported growth rates. We expect adjusted EBITDA rate of If the tax rate were constant, EPS growth would be approximately 8%. 2020, we expect free cash flow of about $505,000,000. That's a projected change of about 9% versus our 2019 free cash flow.
All the details of our full year guidance are included on our rates, which had a very modest overall impact. Our 2019 ending contract value at 2020 FX rates is $2,800,000,000 for GTS $649,000,000 for GBS. Details are included in the appendix of the earnings supplement. In terms of the quarterly phasing for 2020, we expect our quarterly revenue to be roughly consistent with what you saw in 2019. You can also assume quarterly phasing for the below the line items consistent with last year.
Expect our tax rate for the first quarter to be higher than our annual rate. Finally for the first quarter of 2020, we expect adjusted EBITDA of about $150,000,000 to $155,000,000. In summary, GTS contract value closed the year with healthy 12% growth. While we did not quite reach double digit growth in GBS, TV growth accelerated to 8% organically and the sales of our new GXL products and GBS continue to rise. Our Conferences And Consulting businesses both had great years.
Free cash flow was strong and conversion from net income for the year was 130%. Going into 2020, we have aligned our cost growth with revenue growth, and we will continue to apply the Gartner formula across the combined businesses to drive sustained long term double digit growth to revenues, EBITDA and free cash flow. Options.
You. Our first question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler with Baird. Your line is now open.
Yes, thank you. We'd love some more detail on the 3 to points that you're assuming in tech research that you're going to get from the optimization initiatives, does that also include the increased tenure as you slow the sales force headcount or just what's the operating risk to achieving that? Because 3 to 5 points from optimization alone would seem like a lot to me. So would love any color to how you get there because I guess my concern would be GTS CV already decelerating now slowing sales headcount growth fairly meaningfully and calling out the softness in China, which probably gets worse before it gets better.
Hey, Jeff, it's Jean. So, the 3 to 5 points is due to the is due basically to having more people selling as a portion of our total payroll. So if you think about it, I'll give you a specific example with training we have great training. We have world class training. And the way we train historically is we bring someone in and they train for 6 to 8 weeks and then they would go into territory.
And that worked really well. We constantly innovate and make improvements and we've identified what we think is a big improvement in training that allows our with a lot of sales reps to have better training and that's to provide just in time training. So instead of 6 to 8 weeks upfront, where they're on the payroll, but they're actually not selling we're going to give them 2 weeks training upfront. And then they'll you'll get the other 4 to 6 weeks like a day a week through their 1st year with a tune to be what they need at the time they need it. So just in time training.
So it's actually a better way train, we actually get more people in territory faster. So instead of having an inventory of 6 to 8 weeks of when they're in training time, where they're not selling upfront, actually getting into territory after 2 weeks, that gives us a lot more sales people in front of clients than we have today. And so it's a combination of that's in the training. We're doing that. We're making similar changes in recruiting, which actually gets people in territory fast.
So reducing the number of people that are being paid, but actually aren't selling by being smarter about how we're doing it. And that's where the 3 to 5 points comes If you look at actual number of territories, for example, GTS, we're expecting to grow territories in GTS approximately 10% during 2020. And so even though the total number of sales people won't grow as fast. It's because we're being much more effective at getting people into territories faster. So you can think about it.
We'll still have more tariff, more people in front of clients actually selling. It's just a smarter way to work.
Okay. And then on, I guess, the change in guidance methodology and simplifying it, I think there was a comment that it's the best view of which you expect to deliver. So should we view this as kind of being the equivalent of like the midpoint of the prior range and tying to that looks like you changed the medium term revenue guidance from 10% to 14% to at least 10%. So would that 10% also be a midpoint type number or are these supposed to be like kind of low end at least type numbers? Thanks.
Great question, Jeff. And thank you for that. The way to think about the change in the presentation format is, again, it's really simplification and attempting to represent Our best view of where from where we stand today, how we expect the business to perform in 2020. And so I wouldn't relate it to a point in the ranges we used to provide. It's really just our best estimate what we think we're going to do in 2020 from where we stand today.
In terms of the medium term guidance, it's really just fine tuning and simplifying way we're presenting it. And so again, I wouldn't read into it as it's a change. We're just simplifying the presentation.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tony Kaplan with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Thanks very much. You mentioned China being a driver of slower growth in GTS. I was hoping you could help us with what percent of your business is in China? What was driving the slowdown in the 4th quarter? And if any color on how much it did slow?
And if you're taking into the guidance and impact from like the coronavirus impact, how much are you sort of building in? Thanks.
Hey, Johnny, it's Jean. So, China historically has been a good source of growth for us, but it's still a small market for us. Think of think approximately 1% of revenues and just over 1% of revenues. And so it's not big for us, but it was a fast growing market for us. What's happened in China really is 3 things.
One is that we had our leadership change, which we had a great leader, but the leader was an American whose family after being there for a few years, his family needed to come back to the U. S. And so we made a change there. And we have another leader that we've put in, which is we think a very strong leader, is earlier in their tenure and sort of learning the market. That coincided with a drop in GDP growth in China, it's the lowest in 27 years as well as things like the tariff concerns, the unrest in Hong Kong, and now the coronavirus.
And so the it's kind of an intersection of a leadership change where again, we think long term will be great, but along with a sharp slowing in GDP growth and a lot of concerns about what within the Chinese about what the tariff implications will be on their economy.
Perfect. And then, could you help us break out GTS and GBS contract value growth in the guidance, you're expecting GBS to average somewhere in like the mid single digit kind of range and as a result of the marketing product changes? And I guess how much should the marketing changes have on growth next year? Thanks.
Hi, good morning, Tony. So we don't provide contract value guidance. And so the way I would think about it is the best estimate of where we're going to be is kind of where we are today, from a a growth rate perspective and that's what's baked into the 2020 research revenue guidance.
Got it. And any color on the, okay, marketing?
So we're not going into that level of detail on the marketing. We wanted to make sure that investors understood. We were making some changes. It will have a modest impact. The good news is, as Gene mentioned, we're dealing with the contracts as they come up for renewal.
They are phased evenly over the course of the year. So it's a pretty modest impact on the revenue line. And as we roll through the year, we'll provide more color on the impact on the contract value growth.
That's great. Thanks so much.
Our next question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Hey guys, good morning. So I just I'm having a hard time understanding 9.5% research revenue growth in the guidance relative to the Q4 contract value of $11,700,000. I think, Craig, in your preamble to the guidance, you even said that And I quote ending CV is the good leading indicator of the trend in that business. So why 9.5 versus 11.7% and sort of what's going on there? I think we need more color.
Yes, sure. Of course. Good morning, Gary. So, I guess, two things I'd note. One is there is often, if you look back historically, a little bit of a gap between the kind of point contract value endpoint and where research revenue growth ends up.
And there's a couple of things driving that. First is really the timing of when contract value growth comes in over the course of the upcoming year in 2020. And so we've modeled in our best estimate of where we think that revenue and NCVI is going to come and when it's going to come. And that has an impact on the overall growth rate. The second thing I'd note is within that research revenue number is a decent amount of non subscription revenue, in our revenue disclosures, it's the kind of point in time revenue as opposed to the over time revenue.
And so we have certain product lines in there that are growing fast and help with the overall growth rates. We have other product lines that we are managing down or flat to declining over time. That also impacts the research revenue growth rate. So I guess what I'd say is where we stand today based on everything we're seeing and the way we've modeled in our NCVI by quarter and modeled in new business and renewal rates. 9.5% is our best point estimate of where research revenue is going to end
Okay. And then the follow-up maybe for Jean, so we appreciate after the last couple of years the commitment to flat to improving margins, but it almost feels like when I think about all your commentary and the guidance here, you're slowing sales headcount and investment to deliver flat margins. And so I guess the question is something changed with the model because we've been in the I think the story you've been telling is a lot of investment over several years in GBS but presumably there was going to be a return on those investments. And now to get flat margins, it feels like you're having to cut back on investment, which just seems to imply maybe the model is not as dynamic or it's more penetrated or something has changed here. Thoughts?
Yes. Hey, Gary. So the that's not an accurate characterization. I think basically the, we invested ahead of our revenues over the last 3 years purposefully, especially in GBS. And now we want to make sure we get a return on that investment.
In GTS, as I mentioned, we're still intending to grow the actual number of people selling at quite a good rate. We just found a smarter way to work the year where we think that it will both have a positive impact on sales force effectiveness and give us better cost structure. We have an enormous market opportunity in every segment in every size company in every geography and we're committed to continue to go after that. We just found a smarter way to do it 2020. In fact beyond 2020, we'd expect to be kind of back to the as we get the kind of returns on the investors we made and made these changes.
Getting back to kind of normal sales force growth.
The other thing I know, Gary, is, we do continue to invest behind the business And so even in 2020 and we talked about it, we still got, an investment slide in for GTS to grow headcount in the high single digits, close to double digit rates and also continued investment in GBS as well. And so it's moderating modestly, but we are continuing to invest behind the business with the whole goal of driving, sustained double digit growth over the long term.
Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Your line is now open.
Thank you. Good morning guys. So just back on the medium term guide, it's hard not to interpret that as at least tempering your expectations of of growth, what was 10% to 14%. And I think the 3 things I picked up on is obviously the GTF Salesforce growth I guess decelerating, you talked about changes in the GBS. And then I think even marketing, which was a double digit growth segment for UA.
I suppose you're seeing is now 4%. Am I missing anything else? And I guess I just wanted to know how temporary are these decelerations?
So let me take the let me take the marketing piece first. So, our marketing practice today is a combination of new products or products like GML and then products that were from that were based on other acquisitions like Econoculture L2 Heritage CED and the GML product, which is our traditional product last year, as after several years, grew way north of 20% on a pretty good CD base. The issue is with some of those other products. And so we're quite long term optimistic about marketing because it's growing. The new products are growing actually the GML products, which is our core products, are growing extremely well.
Because the other products had poor attention and had much lower profitability rather than, we're trying to retain those clients. What we're doing is making them not renewable and getting people to upgrade GML, which we know is a much better product. That lowers the total growth rate in the short term but increases the profitability. Once we go through that transition, we expect that market will be a very fast grower as it's historically been. And as GML continues to do today.
And the other thing I'd mention, Manav, is as you think about future growth rates and we've talked about this a lot in the past, there are really two levers that drive the contract value growth rate. So it's investing in incremental headcount. And again, you can look at it in terms of raw headcount, the headcount number or you can look at it the way Jean described it, which is the amount of available headcount that actually is totalized talking to clients and selling and we're looking at it both ways, and productivity improvement. And so from where we stand today, we still believe there is a lot of room to do both, to invest in continuing to grow both sales forces and also to continue to improve productivity across the board. While we had a really nice improvement, in GBS productivity, it's still only at about 2 thirds of the GTS level.
And so there's still room to go there. And GTS We had a little bit of a rough year on the productivity. It's still very strong, but there's definitely room for improvement there. And so if you model in a combination of headcount growth and even modest productivity improvements, we believe we can achieve similar contract value growth rates to what we've done in the
Okay. And then just a follow-up on the GBS side. So I think you said GXL was 46% of the contract value this quarter. What's a reasonable timeframe or cadence to kind of model in every year on how that percentage progresses, versus the legacy business, I suppose.
Yes. It's a good question, Manav. The I'd say 2 things. One is, we've actually improved the retention rates on the legacy, which is a huge net positive for us because we're keeping more dollars there and happy clients there. And so That has slowed the erosion of the legacy portion of the overall GBS contract value.
But as we roll into the future, we expect to pass over the halfway more than 50% of the CV being GBS, being GXL rather sometime in the first half of twenty twenty. And that trend will continue over time. And again, if you kind of model in results consistent with what you saw in 2019 in terms of the legacy decline and the GXL growth rates, that'll give you a good sense for that shift in mix.
All right. Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas with William Blair. Your line is now open.
Hi, good morning. I wanted to ask about CV growth in GBS. And how you expect it to progress over the course of the year? I know you mentioned some of the lower margin products and marketing coming due throughout 2020, which should have an impact on profitability. But I'm just wondering if there's any way to quantify or give some color on the cadence of CV growth and how maybe some of those products coming due would flow through throughout the year?
Hey, good morning, Andrew. It's Craig. So we don't provide, contract value guidance for either GTS or GBS As I mentioned earlier, the phasing of those lower margin products as they come up for renewal across 2020. It's more heavily weighted towards Q2 and Q4, but we do have contract value in each of the quarters that will come up for renewal. I would expect kind of similar, let me back up for a second, So from a GBS perspective, we had great momentum in 2019.
We're closing the year 8.2 percent organic contract value growth. Absent the changes in marketing, we expect to continue to drive really nice growth in GBS. And again, over time, we'll be able to transition and migrate away from those lower margin marketing products that Gene and I both described to higher margin GXL products. So, long answer no specific CV guidance, but we're obviously focused on continuing to drive growth in GBS.
Great. Thank you. And then your EBITDA margin guidance obviously aligns with your messaging last quarter, no surprises there, but I was hoping you could elaborate a bit on some of the factors that could potentially drive margin expansion in 2020. Is that primarily a matter of exceeding your revenue growth projections or are there other potential areas where we could see some margin upside? Thanks.
Yes. So again, our view, and from where we stand today is our guidance is our best view of where we think we're going to potentially see margin expansion would be nice improvements in sales productivity, which would correspond with contract value growth rates, accelerating as well. Depending on when that happens, it might flow through into 2021 as opposed benefiting us from a revenue upside perspective, in 2020. But the sales productivity is probably the biggest lever we have from a margin perspective.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bill Warmington with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
So a follow-up question on the decline in the sales productivity. The how long is typically the lag between the decline in the sales headcount growth and the improvement in the sales productivity?
Yes, they're not I would not say 111 correlated. As you know, Bill, we're constantly tuning the model, of going faster in places where we've got really strong productivity and pumping the brakes or slowing down in places where our productivity is not as strong. You do see it from a pure calculation perspective. If we deliver same amount of NCVI with less headcount growth, yes, that would equate to higher productivity on average. But the way we're managing it is much more dynamically than that.
And again, making sure that at the individual unit levels of our frontline sellers, that we are driving productivity, moving people up the learning curve, our 10 year curve as we've talked about investing in places that can physically deliver high productivity and slowing down in places, that are not delivering from a productivity perspective. Net net, we are just like we've always done tuning the model to make sure that we set ourselves up to be in a positive from a sales productivity perspective.
And for my follow-up question on on the impact of the revised sales strategy for small tech companies, when can we expect the in terms of the phasing, when can we expect the impact of that to start to moderate?
So I would expect to see improvement throughout 20202020 I think over the next 2 years, we'll get back to a really good spot there.
Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Thanks so much. I'm sorry, I just want to go back to the medium term guidance. First of all, can you just remind us how you define medium term? And second, If I look at the objectives that you provided, I think, on last year's Analyst Day, you kind of went through the buckets in terms of research conference and consulting to come up with your medium term objectives for revenue growth. Can you just tell us how those have changed if anything by the different segments?
Thanks.
Hey, good morning, Jeff. It's Craig. So, medium term in our definition is 3 to 5 years. So that's the way to think about medium term. Again, my view or our view, I should say, the medium term guidance is it's sort of unchanged.
It's just simplified. The key thing that drives the bulk of our top line is our research business and that's reflected on the slide in terms of GTS CV growth and GBS CV growth which is unchanged. Our expectations for conferences and consulting, which is not on the page are essentially unchanged. And so instead of doing the math that would get us with all the inputs to a range on revenue, we've just simplified it that it's it's 10 plus. And so again, I'd say no change to the medium term guidance, just simplification, in terms of the way we're presenting
Okay. Appreciate that. And then when you I think Jean, you had mentioned that the and forgive me if I'm misquoting you, that the GTS territories were going to be up 10% this year. Can you just confirm that's what you said? And can you just help geographically are you focusing on specific areas for that increase?
So again, yes, I did say GTS territories would approximately 10% during 2020. And again, what we do as Craig mentioned earlier is, We look at where the territories we believe are going to have the highest sales productivity. And so we have huge opportunities to get territories. We basically prioritize, to say, based on the tenure of the leader, etcetera, how the team is operating what are the places that we think are likely the highest sales productivity? And that's the place we add the territory choice.
And any specific geographies to call out there?
Well, again, we're, again, so we'll be adding fewer territories in China. Yes, to be sure. And so basically the places that are doing well, we will add more territories. And the places that are challenged like China, we'd be adding to our territory. So that's kind of a it's as simple as that.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of
George Tong with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Hi, thanks. Good morning. Within GTS, you noted challenges from a strategy shift with small tech companies, the sales leadership changes, that you've made in headwinds in China, which you've talked about. Can you elaborate on your remediation actions? In other words, what are you doing to actively reverse these headwinds other than waiting them out and when you would expect to see normalization in operating performance?
Yes, George, great question. So, in the small tech companies, we basically changed our strategy there's a huge growth in numbers of small tech companies because of cloud based computing and open source software development tools. And so there's been a very large increase in the number of small tech companies. So it's a great market for us. We we started serving that market the way that we do larger companies and we discovered that was not as cost effective as we'd like.
And so we kept with a much better way, which we're we're transitioning to, there's some short term name, but it's basically we're changing how we're selling those companies to make a specialized team that just focuses on those these. And it's tuned so that we get the right economics. And so that's what we're doing there is we've actually set up a dedicated team, modified the sales process is to be for those smaller companies, etcetera. In the case of Germany and India. As I mentioned in Germany, I missed a couple of calls ago, we had 2 key leaders, a sales leader, service leader who basically got promoted and wanted to take other jobs.
1 went to CBS one went to another place in our service organization. They are strong leaders who had led Germany, the 2 topics in Germany and had great growth there. For their own careers, they wanted other jobs, which we can't. We want to encourage that. Their successors were more junior.
Think about them as being the tenure people, but 5 years earlier in their career. And so it takes a little bit of time to get up to speed. The performance of those 2 leaders is doing great. The new replacement Germany are doing really well. If you look at lead indicators like pipeline development and things like that, client engagement doing really well.
So the lead indicators are good. And so we've made the right changes. We're giving them appropriate leadership development support and the lead indicators are strong. So those are kind of the changes.
Got it.
That's up. And then again, I guess, I'll go
back to China as well. We talk about China where we have a new new year of the organic, as we feel very good about that leader, It's a tough situation economically and, we're giving them support. We are not be adding a lot of territories to it. That solves 2 problems. One is because of the challenges there, fewer territory growth means it's easier to manage.
So it actually helps them and we'll also help them with their development as well.
Got it. That's helpful. You previously guided to GBS CV growth of at least 12% in 2020. Can you discuss why you're choosing to withdraw GBS guidance even though visibility into CV growth is higher now than it was last year? What's, I guess, what's changed structurally in GBS from when you previously guided to 12% plus CV growth.
Good morning, George. It's Craig. I think, now that we're a few years past the acquisition, now that we've seen really nice acceleration over the course of 2019, we're reverting to our general philosophy, which is we don't provide contract value guidance, for either of our businesses. But again, you've got the medium term objectives that we are more towards. And so those are unchanged.
And we will continue to focus on driving growth contract value growth in both GTS and GBS. And as we talked about earlier, the way we're going to get that growth is by continuing to invest in growing the sales force. And focus on improving the productivity of Salesforce. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ferresse with Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is now open.
Hi. This is Steven Chang coming on for Joe. I just wanted to touch more on the medium term GBS CB guidance. I understand you are expecting a lot of help from the GXL transition and including and maybe updates on the sales force. But I was just wondering if there are any more any other additions to that growth that, that will help hit that range or should we expect most to come from those 2 sources.
Hey, good morning, Steven. Yeah, I think I mean, the way to think about it is We've over the last couple of years, we've invested in growing the sales force in the new products, in service teams to make sure we drive great engagement and value. And we're going to continue invest in those areas more in line with top line growth. But those are the things that are going to continue to drive the contract value growth of GBS. Again, think of it as really very similar to the way we run the GTS business.
It's Again, great products, drive great value, really strong retention rates. And then grow through both finding new enterprises or new functional areas with enterprises and then penetrating them. And so it's really the same playbook in GBS that we've run-in GTS for a really long time.
Okay. Thank you. And also, maybe just switching it up a little. I was just wondering if you had any seen changes or changes or kind of increased adoption in other specific industries or verticals that are gaining traction, especially in the conference section. Where you're, for example, you're bringing in analytics, you're bringing in more data focused conferences.
I don't see if there's any updates on that.
So, in our conferences, obviously, our conferences are growing at really attractive rates. Considered doing really well. To your point, I think overall things like security and overall, again, it varies by geography because sometimes you hold these things in multiple geographies. Of things like security and analytics, tend to be even faster growing than some of the others.
And the other thing I'd add, Steven, is just, as we build out the conference portfolio to support GBS. We've seen really nice pickup traction in growth. In those conferences, the ones that have existed, we've driven really great growth in them. And then as we talked about in the past, We've launched a few new ones like a finance executive summit, etcetera, where we've done really well. And we think it sets up a really nice platform for growth into the future.
You. Our next question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Hi, this is Mario Cortellacci on for Hamzah. I know we talked about China and what's going on there, but just curious to know what your sales force productivity looks like in other regions and specifically maybe Europe and whether there's any variation there, versus what you're seeing in the U. S?
So Europe sales productivity actually varies quite a bit by country. So we have some countries in Europe that have very high productivity and others that are not as good as we'd like. And so there's not kind of one answer for all of Europe, but actually varies quite a bit by country. And it's really correlated to how much of our sales team is there. And, our level of operational
And Mario, just to double click on that for a sec, as Gene mentioned, we're we manage and measure at a very granular level from a productivity perspective. And so we are looking at it almost essentially at the sales manager level. And that's what helps us determine where we're going to invest more and where we need to sometimes take a pause on growth. And so you've got wide variability of productivity across the board, but we are looking at it very, very deeply. And again, in the places where we're seeing strength, those are the places that we tend to grow a little bit faster from a headcount growth perspective.
In places that are challenging, we tend to take a little bit of pause so that we can get people up to 10 year curve, whether it's the frontline sellers, the sales manager, or what you.
Great. And just one more and I'll turn it over. Just regarding the 3 to 5 points you're going to get from the the optimization. I guess, that looks great this year, but I guess, does that, is there any additional work that you guys can do next year to to optimize more or does this growth ramp after you guys lap this change?
So the first thing I'd say is we're committed to continuous innovation and continuous improvement. And so I'll never say we won't come up with more innovations next year. And also, some of these changes will take place over the 2 years, but we won't get full impact this year. It'll take the 2021, we get the full impact of changes I discussed. But the, and we're going to continue to innovate.
Our planning is that we're going to get 3 to 5 points this year. And then in 2021, we'll the normal headcount growth that you're seeing in the past.
This concludes today's question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Gene Hall for closing remarks.
As you heard today, we once again delivered strong performances against across all three of our businesses, research, consulting and conferences. The Gartner Formula for sustained long term growth continues to drive success in our research business. Our GTS organization continues to deliver strong performance. GBS accelerated and is on a path to sustained long term double digit growth. We deliver incredible value to every major function in the enterprise.
We have a vast market opportunity. We've made investments over the past few years that position us well to capture that market opportunity. We're aligning our cost growth with revenue growth. With the great strategic positioning of GTS and GBS, together with leveraging the investments we've made, we are well positioned for sustained long term double digit growth. Thanks for joining us today and I look forward to updating you again next quarter.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.