Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Oct 26, 2021

Operator

Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. As a reminder, this conference call and the related presentation may include forward-looking statements, which reflect management's expectation about future events and overall operating plans and performance. These forward-looking statements are made as of today and are not guarantees. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from our expectations. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please see the risks described in our most recent Form 10-K and subsequent filings with the SEC. Invesco makes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement. We may also discuss non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures may be found at the end of our earnings presentation.

Welcome to Invesco's third quarter results conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session. At that time, to ask a question, please press star one. This call will last one hour. To allow more participants to ask questions, only one question and a follow-up can be submitted per participant. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now, I would like to turn the call over to your speakers for today, Marty Flanagan, President and CEO of Invesco, and Allison Dukes, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Flanagan, you may begin.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Thank you, operator. I appreciate it very much, and thanks everybody for joining us. I'll make a few comments and turn it over to Allison so she can review the quarter in more depth. Then we'll open up the Q&A as we always do. Hoping everybody's staying safe and healthy as we continue to return to normalcy. I know we're all looking for that pace to continue in the months ahead. Continue to have a high level of engagement with our clients, which is even more important as we navigate the market uncertainty brought about by the end of economic and market upside surprises we experienced from the depths of COVID. Helping our clients by providing insights and solutions, utilizing our broad range of capabilities. This approach has helped us deliver strong, consistent growth over the past five quarters.

As you can see on slide three, if you're following along on the deck, net long-term flows were $13.3 billion during the quarter. This represents over 4% annualized long-term organic growth for the quarter. Growth was driven by continued strength in a number of our key capabilities, including ETFs, fixed income, China solutions, alternative, and global equities. Strategically, we continue to invest in areas where we see client demand, where competitive strength. Since the third quarter of last year, we've generated $86 billion of long-term inflows and average quarterly organic growth rate of 6%. Five consecutive quarters of strong growth are the direct result of the investments we've made over time to enhance and evolve our business to meet client needs.

ETFs, excluding the Qs, generated long-term inflows of $3.7 billion in the quarter, with strong market share gains in our EMEA ETF range. In private markets, we generated net long-term inflows in our direct real estate business, $1.2 billion, and robust bank loan product demand resulted in net long-term inflows of $2 billion during the quarter. This included the launch of a new CLO. We generated net long-term inflows of $11 billion within active fixed income across the platform. Within active global equities, the developing markets fund, a key capability that came over when we combined with Oppenheimer, continue to see net long-term inflows of $700 million during the quarter. That said, we remain focused and continue to work on areas where there's opportunity for improvement.

In addition, our solutions-enabled institutional pipeline accounts for 38% of the pipeline at quarter end. Third quarter flows included net long-term inflows of $6.8 billion in Greater China. Our China business continues to be a source of strength and differentiation for Invesco. We continue to expect the Chinese investment management industry to be the fastest-growing market in the world for the foreseeable future. We are an early entrant 20 years ago, and we're benefiting from that commitment and investment, and we expect to see continued growth in the years ahead. Before I turn the call over to Allison, who will provide more information on the China business and the results, I'd like to note that the growth we are experiencing is driving positive operating leverage, producing adjusted operating margin of 42% for the quarter.

The strong cash flow being generated from our business improve our cash position in helping build a stronger balance sheet and improving our financial flexibility for the future. Invesco's depth and breadth of capabilities and competitive strengths position us well as we look forward. We continue to focus our efforts on delivering positive outcomes for our clients while driving future growth. With that, let me turn it over to Allison.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

Thank you, Marty. Good morning, everyone. Moving to slide four, our investment performance was strong in the third quarter, with 72% and 74% of actively managed funds in the top half of peers for being benchmarked on a five-year and a 10-year basis. This reflected continued strength in fixed income, global equities, including emerging market equities and Asian equities, all areas where we continue to see demand from clients globally. Moving to slide five, we ended the quarter with $1.529 trillion in AUM, a net increase of $3.6 billion. As Marty noted earlier, our diversified platform generated net long-term inflows in the third quarter of $13.3 billion, representing a 4.4% annualized organic growth rate.

Active AUM net long-term inflows were $6.8 billion and passive AUM net long-term flows were $6.5 billion. Market declines and FX rate changes led to a decrease in AUM of $18.6 billion in the quarter. The retail channel generated net long-term inflows of $1.8 billion, driven by positive ETF flows and inflows in Greater China. The institutional channel demonstrated the breadth of our platform and generated net long-term inflows of $11.5 billion in the quarter, with diverse mandates, both regionally and by capability funding in the period. Regarding retail net inflows, our ETF, excluding the QQQ, generated net long-term inflows of $3.7 billion. Year-to-date, we have captured global ETF market share.

Our global ETF platform, again excluding the QQQ, captured a 3.8% market share of flows, which exceeded our 2.7% market share of AUM. We have also captured a higher share of the global ETF revenue pool over this period. Our market share of the revenue pool was 5.6%. Net ETF inflows in the United States does include net long-term inflows of $900 million into our QQQ Innovation Suite, which crossed $3 billion in AUM one year after its launch. Our EMEA-based ETF range generated $2.5 billion of net long-term inflows in the quarter, with particular strength from the Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF and the gold exchange-traded commodity fund.

Looking at flows by geography on slide six, you'll note that the Americas had net long-term inflows of $4.8 billion in the quarter, driven by net inflows into ETFs, as mentioned, as well as our institutional flows. Asia-Pacific again delivered another strong quarter, with net long-term inflows of $9.3 billion. Net inflows were diversified across the region, reflecting $6.8 billion of net long-term inflows from Greater China, most of which arose in our JV, and $3.1 billion from Japan. Turning to flows across asset classes, we continue to see broad strength in fixed income in the third quarter, with net long-term flows of $11 billion. Drivers of fixed income flows include institutional net flows into various fixed income strategies through our China JV, global investment grade, stable value, and municipal strategies.

Our Alternatives asset class holds many different capabilities, and this is reflected in the flows that we saw in the third quarter. Net long-term flows in Alternatives were $2.3 billion, driven primarily by our private markets business through a combination of inflows from direct real estate, the newly launched CLO that Marty mentioned, and senior loan capabilities. When excluding global GTR net outflows of $1.7 billion, Alternative net long-term inflows were $4 billion. The strength of our Alternatives platform can be seen through the flows it has generated over the past five quarters, with net long-term flows totaling $12 billion and an organic growth rate that's averaging nearly 6% per quarter over this time when excluding the impact of the GTR net outflows over this period.

Turning to slide seven, I wanted to spend a few minutes on our business in China, particularly given the level of flows we have seen from the region over the last several quarters and the high level of interest in our business there. Invesco launched the first Sino-US JV in China in 2003 as Invesco Great Wall. We've been in the market for almost two decades with a unique JV structure and relationship with our partner. How we operate in China is differentiated from others that have joint ventures. While we have 49% ownership of the JV, our partner is a Chinese government-backed power company and has been a good partner. We've been leading the management of the JV, leveraging our global asset management expertise since the inception of this partnership. We run the business in China with Chinese management, and our clients are Chinese investors.

China's fund management industry is a very significant opportunity. In 20 years, it has grown from almost nothing to around $3.5 trillion. It's expected to become the second-largest fund management market in the world by 2025, with assets of over $6 trillion. Also, China is estimated to account for over 40% of global net flows through 2024. Invesco, as an early entrant in China, has developed a strong and comprehensive platform covering all business activities, including robust domestic investment capabilities with good long-term performance track records. We have very strong relationships with banks and insurance companies, and digital distribution has been a major contributor in recent years in terms of bringing in new onshore business. Key opportunities for Invesco in China include mutual funds, institutional clients, and sovereign wealth funds.

As China continues to open up and improve its capital markets, we also expect opportunities in pension reform, global investors increasing interest in investing in Chinese investments, and cross-border investment opportunities. The relationships, the unique business model we established with our JV partner, and the amount of AUM we have sourced from Chinese onshore investors really sets us apart from other global asset managers who are newer entrants in the Chinese market. Moving to slide eight. We have built a diversified business in China with over $99 billion in AUM at the end of September. 60% of the AUM is from retail clients, and 40% is institutional. We manage AUM in all asset classes, and distribution is unique. Direct digital distribution to retail investors has become a mainstream channel, along with the traditional bank distribution channels, and this is not just for money market funds.

With our market position and tenure in China, we are beneficiaries of this trend. Our long-term commitment and strong track record have put Invesco in an advantageous position, and our strategic position and continued investment in China has resulted in a 42% annual growth rate over the last three years- to- date. In recognition of the strength of the business, Invesco was ranked the number one China onshore business and the number three foreign asset management firm in overall China in 2020. Before we wrap up this discussion on China, in light of the recent developments around Evergrande, I wanna note that our overall exposure as a direct equity or fixed income holding across the complex, including within our JV, is de minimis.

Market volatility in offshore markets, of course, does impact AUM levels, and the market has been and could be volatile for future real estate developments. We remain positive towards the fundamentals of China's economy, and most of the flows in our China business come from domestic onshore clients. If anything, we've seen a flight to quality as investors look to NAV-based products like the ones IGW offers. Now moving to slide nine to look at the institutional pipeline, which was $32 billion at the end of September. The pipeline remains relatively consistent to prior quarter levels in terms of both asset and fee composition. Overall, the pipeline is well-diversified across asset classes and geographies. Our solutions capability enabled 38% of the global institutional pipeline and created wins and customized mandates. This has contributed to meaningful growth across our institutional network.

Turning to slide 10, you'll note that net revenues increased $31 million or 2.3% from the second quarter as a result of higher average AUM in the third quarter. The net revenue yield, excluding performance fees, was 34.4 basis points, a decrease of 0.4 basis point from the second quarter yield level. The decrease was mainly driven by asset mix shifts, including higher QQQ and money market average balances. The incremental impact from higher discretionary money market fee waivers was minimal relative to the second quarter, and the full impact on the net revenue yield for the third quarter was 0.6 basis point.

Looking forward, we expect the dynamics impacting net revenue yield will continue, the degree of which will be influenced by market direction, especially if we see a divergence in performance in areas such as developing or emerging markets where fees tend to be higher than our firm average. We do expect the discretionary money market fee waivers to remain in place for the foreseeable future until rates begin to recover to normalized levels. One other area I want to note before moving to expenses are performance fees. Historically, we have realized meaningfully higher performance fees in the fourth quarter. These have been driven typically by a few funds each year that have reached the point in their life cycle where they generate performance fees, usually in the fourth quarter. This year, we do not expect to see performance fees increase in the fourth quarter.

We expect performance fees in the quarter will be more in line with our experience across the first three quarters of the year. This is due to vintages in our portfolio not being at the life cycle stage of recognizing performance fees, which is typically near the end of the life of the fund and is in no way related to the performance of the fund. Total adjusted operating expenses increased 1.2% in the third quarter. The $10 million increase in operating expenses was mainly driven by variable compensation and property office and technology expense. Higher variable compensation was driven by the revenue increase in the quarter, partially offset by savings resulting from our strategic evaluation.

The increase in property office and technology expenses was largely driven by changes to the pricing of transfer agency services that we provide to our funds as we noted last quarter. This change went into effect in the third quarter and resulted in a $6 million expense increase, which was offset by a corresponding increase in service and distribution revenue. As a reminder, we anticipate that our outsourced administration costs, which we reflect in property office and technology expense, will increase by approximately $25 million on an annual basis, or approximately $6 million per quarter. Offsetting this will be a corresponding increase in service and distribution revenues, resulting in a minimal impact to operating income. Operating expenses remained at lower than historic activity levels due to pandemic-driven impacts to discretionary spending, travel, and other business operations.

However, we did see a modest increase in client activity and business travel in the third quarter, which is reflected in both marketing and G&A expense. As we look ahead to the fourth quarter, our expectations are for fourth quarter operating expenses to be relatively flat compared to the third quarter, assuming no change in markets and FX levels from September 30th. Consistent with prior years, we expect a modest seasonal increase in marketing-related expenses in the fourth quarter, and one area that's still more difficult to forecast at this point is when COVID impacted travel and entertainment expense levels will begin to normalize. We are engaging in more domestic travel and in-person client activities, and we do expect to see continued modest resumption of these activities in the fourth quarter. Moving to slide 11, we update you on the progress we have made with our strategic evaluation.

In the third quarter, we realized $5.8 million in cost savings. $4 million of these savings was related to compensation expense associated with reorganization, and $2 million was related to property expense. The $5.8 million in cost savings, or $23 million annualized, combined with the $125 million in annualized savings realized through the second quarter in 2021, brings us to $148 million in total or 74% of our $200 million net savings expectation. As it relates to timing, we expect to modestly exceed the $150 million target we had set for 2021, with the remainder realized by the end of 2022.

We expect the total program savings of $200 million through 2022 will be roughly 65% from compensation and 35% spread across the other categories. In the third quarter, we incurred $18 million of restructuring costs. In total, we've recognized nearly $190 million of our estimated $250 million-$275 million in restructuring costs that were associated with the program. We expect the remaining restructuring costs for the realization of this program to be in a range of $60 million-$85 million through the end of next year. As a reminder, the costs associated with the strategic evaluation are not reflected in our non-GAAP results. Now, going to slide 12, adjusted operating income improved $21 million to $562 million for the quarter, driven by the factors we just reviewed.

Adjusted operating margin improved 60 basis points to 42.1% as compared to the second quarter. Most importantly, our degree of positive operating leverage reflected in our non-GAAP results was 1.7 x for the quarter, underscoring our focus on driving scale and profitability across our diversified platform. Non-operating income was $29 million, driven primarily by unrealized gains in our co-investment portfolios. The effective tax rate for the third quarter was 24.4%, compared to 22.8% in the second quarter. The rate increase is primarily due to an increase in the reserve for uncertain tax positions. We estimate our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be between 23% and 24% for the fourth quarter. The actual effective tax rate may vary from this estimate due to the impact of non-recurring items on pre-tax income and discrete tax items.

Looking at slide 13, we illustrate our ability to drive adjusted operating margin performance against the backdrop of the client demand-driven change in our AUM mix and the resulting impact on our net revenue yield excluding performance fees. Our operating margin in the third quarter of 2019, which was the first full quarter following the acquisition of Oppenheimer, was 40.9%. At that time, we reported a net revenue yield of 40.7 basis points. In the third quarter of 2021, our net revenue yield had declined over 6 basis points to 34.4 basis points, yet our operating margin has improved to 42.1%. This chart starts at the third quarter of 2019, but in fact, our third quarter 2021 operating margin is the highest since Invesco became a U.S.-listed company in 2007.

This is against a backdrop of a mix-driven decline in net revenue yield. We've been building out our product suite to meet client demand, and client demand has been tilted towards lower-fee products. In fact, the growth of the QQQ over this period is remarkable, almost tripling in size and going from 6% of our AUM mix in the third quarter of 2019 to 12% at the end of this quarter. Even though we do not earn a management fee but sponsor the QQQ, we manage the over $100 million annual marketing budget generated by the product. The marketing budget has allowed Invesco to further raise awareness about the QQQ. That increased awareness has resulted in its ability to significantly increase our market share in the ETF space. Invesco is today the fourth-largest ETF provider in the world.

Growth in the QQQ accounts for 2 basis points of the net revenue yield decline over the period shown on this chart. As I noted earlier, discretionary money market fee waivers account for a 6 basis points decline in the net revenue yield. These two factors alone account for over 40% of the decline in the net revenue yield over this period. Realizing our business mix is shifting, we continue to be focused on aligning our expense base with the changes in our business mix, which has enabled the firm to generate positive operating leverage and operating margin improvements. Now a few comments on slide 14. Our balance sheet cash position was $1.8 billion on September 30th, and approximately $725 million of this cash is held for regulatory requirements.

The cash position has improved meaningfully over the past year, increasing by nearly $700 million, largely driven by the improvement in our operating income. Our debt profile has improved considerably as well, with no draws on our revolver at quarter end. As a result, we have substantially improved our net leverage position, as shown in the top right chart on this slide. Our leverage ratio, as defined under our credit facility agreement, declined from 1.43x a year ago to under 1x to 0.86x at the end of this third quarter. If you choose to include the preferred stock, the leverage ratio has declined from just over 4x to 2.67x at the end of the third quarter.

Regarding future cash requirements, we recorded an additional downward adjustment to the MLP liability in the third quarter, reducing the liability from our previous estimate of nearly $300 million down to $254 million. We anticipate funding the liabilities this quarter, and we have ample cash resources to do so. While we anticipate a degree of insurance recovery related to this, the insurance claims process is inherently complex, and we do not have an update at this stage as to the exact timing or size of the recovery. Regarding our capital strategy, we are committed to a sustainable dividend and to returning capital to shareholders through a combination of modestly increasing dividends and share repurchases.

As we look towards 2022 and beyond, we will be building towards a 30%-50% total payout ratio over the next several years as we continue to modestly increase dividends and reinstate a share buyback program in the future. Overall, we believe we're making solid progress in our efforts to improve liquidity and build financial flexibility. In summary, we continue to see growth in our key capabilities. We remain focused on executing the strategy that aligns with these areas while completing our strategic evaluation and reallocating our resources to position us for growth. Finally, we remain prudent in our approach to capital management. We're in a very strong position to meet client needs and run a disciplined business and to continue to invest in and grow our franchise over the long term.

With that, I'll ask the operator to open up the line for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. At this time if you would like to ask an audio question please press star one. You will be announced prior to asking your question. Please pick up your handset when asking your question. To withdraw your request press star two. One moment for the first question. Our first question is from Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI. You may go ahead.

Glenn Schorr
Senior Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Evercore ISI

Hi. Thanks very much. Interesting comment about the driving towards 30%-50% payout ratio eventually. I guess it brings up the strategic question of what's left to do, meaning you've scaled up, you've gotten a lot more global, you've broadened the board, you have China ETFs, fixed income,[ audio distortion] solutions, everything that's working. What else would you be using your cash flow in the future besides capital return? Is that for, like, broadening things like alternatives? I'm just trying to put that numbers question in a bigger strategic question. Thanks.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Thanks, Glenn. Let me make a couple comments, and Allison can chime in, too. Look, we've had the conversation. The industry is just increasingly competitive, and reinvesting the business is still a very high priority for us. As you say, whether it be product extensions for us by more private markets, continue to focus on that business and grow there. You know, the investments in technology, digital, they're really endless. Again, there's just a lot of demand that we would have internally. You know, we continue to make those investments to just increase our competitiveness and continue to evolve the business in line with the client demands.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

Yeah, I mean, I would just add, you know, I think you could sum that up with just we seek to improve and increase our strategic optionality. We want to have the ability to continue to invest in the business. We want ample cash resources for any downturn or any sort of market volatility that could lie ahead. We want to be in position to continue to pay down our debt, and we have a $600 million note that comes due next year. We do have the remaining MLP liability, which I noted has been lowered to $254 million, which is very good news. Nonetheless, that is a cash obligation in the fourth quarter, and we have ample cash resources to handle that.

Really, as we think about the balance sheet, and you've seen the progress we've made over the last 18 months or so, we really are trying to put our balance sheet in a very strong position so we have the strategic optionality that will include returning capital to shareholders. But we want to be in a position to really balance our priorities, which does include improving the balance sheet, investing in the business, maintaining strategic optionality, and returning capital to shareholders.

Glenn Schorr
Senior Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Evercore ISI

Okay. Thanks both for that. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Thanks, Glenn.

Operator

The next question is from Brennan Hawken with UBS. You may go ahead.

Brennan Hawken
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First wanted to just start on waivers. Allison, you flagged 0.6 basis points. The fee rate is there. By your estimate, I know it's gonna depend upon some competitive dynamics and whatnot, but how many hikes do you think we would need before those go away? Because, you know, as the forward curve tells us, we're getting closer to that, so I want to sharpen up the model there.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

Hard to say how many. I do think just the single first hike will certainly be helpful to starting to reduce those money market fee waivers. It'll certainly help on the institutional client side for sure. It does depend on a lot of supply demand dynamics, which will just impact the overall availability of the securities to purchase. The change in Fed funds will be helpful. It won't be the only factor that will determine how quickly it goes away. Just an increase in short-term rates overall will help on the retail side as well.

Brennan Hawken
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay. Well, just, I guess following up on that, when you had waivers in the past, was there a certain threshold for short-term rates at which they were eliminated? I would assume something like 50 basis points would be sufficient. Is that fair?

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

I think that's right. I'd have to go back in the comps and remember, but that sounds about right. You're in the right zone. I'd come back to Allison's comment, though, too. It's gonna depend on the competitive dynamics that.

Brennan Hawken
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

That usually all freed it up.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

It's probably not an unreasonable expectation. It's just how quickly, when we get there, can we unwind it?

Brennan Hawken
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay. Fair enough. Okay. Thank you. There's been some speculation in the news about a potential tie-up with you all and another large financial services firm that has a big asset manager. Curious what you can say about that. Separately, you guys have been very clear that M&A, when it's done right, is definitely a strategic consideration for you and something that is important and can be value creative when done right. Can you maybe walk us through your priorities on the M&A front and whether or not Invesco is interested in being a seller?

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

I can assure you that we're not interested in being a seller, so let's start there. Let me back up and put it in context. You know, as we look at our capital priorities, and Allison and I just spoke, you know, a second ago about that. It's first reinvesting the business to sort of increase our competitive positioning. Then strategically what we look at is, you know, we look at where client demand is, and if we can't fill the gap internally, we would look externally. It has to make strategic sense. It has to be complementary to our business. It can't be duplicative to our business. That never works. Clients don't like it, employees don't like it. By the way, shareholders don't either.

I've come back to the point time and time again that, you know, you have to have the wherewithal to ensure you're protecting what you bought while, you know, creating a better organization. Also very importantly, the cultural alignment matters a lot. If there's misalignment, you're gonna have a problem at some point. As we look at it right now, a priority is, again, continuing to build on what we have. As I mentioned a few minutes ago, it is our private markets business where we're spending, you know, specific amount of time as we're seeing client demand. In credit, in particular, that's been an area in some extensions in our real estate area. Not much different than what we've talked about in the past.

Brennan Hawken
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Thanks for taking my questions.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Dan Fannon with Jefferies. You may go ahead.

Dan Fannon
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to follow up on the momentum in China. You guys have been highlighting this for several quarters. The numbers have been good. Curious about the retail distribution and kind of how I guess diverse and entrenched you are with the third party, the banks and others in there. Maybe talk about you know if there's certain concentrations in the regions or partners or just a little bit more color on the distribution breadth that you have there.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Yeah. I'll make a couple comments and then Allison will add. As you looked in the materials that Allison referred to, it's 60% retail, 40% institutional. The retail comes through the joint venture, and it's very broad.

I mean, just the sheer size of the country, you know, you end up with, you know, any number of distributors. Yes, there's the obvious banks and insurance company, but an area of real strength and growth is really the, you know, the e-commerce distribution channels. There's many different avenues there, you know, beyond Ant Financial, where we are one of the firms that's been quite successful. The concentration risk is not, you know, an issue for us. We just look at the whole distribution landscape to continue to open and broaden. Again, it is a very competitive landscape. Don't misunderstand my comments.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

I don't know that I have a whole lot to add to that. I mean, I think, you know, the online distribution channels have really overtaken the banking distribution channels in terms of market share overall in China. Just given the time we've had there and the strength and the tenure, we've got very strong relationships, not just across the traditional banking distribution channels, which continue to be very good, but also in this emerging online trend. Also very strong institutional relationships there, which are going to continue to be important drivers of long-term growth in China.

Dan Fannon
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Got it. As a follow-up, Allison, can you expand a bit on the performance fee outlook for fourth quarter? Just understanding there was basically an investment gap for some period several years ago where you didn't put money to work, and so the vintage is not like the timing is just off. Just curious how that doesn't tie to performance. Just making sure I understand the dynamics of this quarter and why the fourth quarter 2021 and how we should think about that maybe for fourth quarter 2022, assuming you know performance holds here, and we would see that come back or normalize again next year.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

Yeah. I wouldn't say there was an investment gap. You know, the nature of just performance fees and how they are structured into various contracts just remains, you know, it's very bespoke, and it can be somewhat chunky and difficult to predict. There wasn't an investment gap, but as we do look at just the vintages of what has performance fees in it that would be eligible, it is not the typical year-end spike of what we would typically see. No performance misses, just the way these vintages are kind of cycling through and what we see in the fourth quarter of this year. We continue to have about $58 billion of AUM overall that is performance fee eligible.

We just don't have strike dates, if you will, of 12/31/2021 or at least at the end of this year that would incur or recognize performance fees in the fourth quarter. Our expectation is that fees in this quarter will be consistent with the experience we've had in the first three quarters of this year rather than a spike at year-end. You shouldn't read anything into that in terms of what that means for 2022 or beyond. It's just simply a function of timing with the vintages this year.

Dan Fannon
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research. You may go ahead.

Patrick Davitt
Partner and Senior Analyst of US Asset Managers, Autonomous Research

Good morning, everyone. You touched on this briefly in the prepared remarks, but China flows were obviously remarkably resilient given the increased volatility we saw there last quarter. Could you give a little bit more detail on kind of the flow and investing trends you saw through that volatility? Was there any kind of drop-off in activity as the volatility got worse later in the quarter? I guess, in short, like, what I'm trying to get to, do we need to worry about these flows slowing or even reversing if Chinese volatility continues to get meaningfully worse? Or do you think, you know, 3Q suggests they could be resilient through that?

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

I'll make a couple comments.

If you rewind the tape to the beginning of the year after, you know, Q1, we thought, you know, it was such an incredibly strong quarter that, you know, it couldn't be repeated and, you know, slowed some but continued to be very, very strong. Just what we're seeing is there was this movement of investor behavior from really equity capabilities that were sort of growth focused to value focused and, you know, just continuing to work through the broad range of capabilities. It's hard to, you know, predict what's gonna happen. We're just not seeing that fall off to the degree that you would imagine in those very volatile periods, as you saw if you went back to 2015, something like that.

What's really important is the market continues to evolve in a very positive way. You know, the regulators have been very focused on you know providing you know a greater investment and you know retirement savings market, and you're seeing that. I'm not going to say that we'll never see net redemptions, but it's been very resilient through this year, even with the volatility that we've seen.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

Yeah, I mean, the only thing I might add, if I look back over the last five quarters, this was our second-highest quarter for flows in China. You know, I think the volatility, you know, we didn't necessarily see it turn down inside of the quarter. In some of that volatility, you started to just hear, I'll call it softening in sentiment really in the second quarter. You see that more in the second quarter flow results. If I look at the flows into the joint venture in particular, it was about $7 billion, which of that product launches drove $2 billion. The remainder was really through existing products, particularly fixed income. There was a lot of strength in our fixed income capability.

That's different than what we saw in the first quarter, where it was new product launches that drove the majority of the flows. In this quarter, it was really from our existing products. I think that, not only speaks to just the strength and the sustainability in the market, but also, the breadth of the capabilities in our platform that we're able to continue to gather assets without large new product launches, just given the breadth of capabilities we offer.

Patrick Davitt
Partner and Senior Analyst of US Asset Managers, Autonomous Research

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ken Worthington with JP Morgan. You may go ahead.

Ken Worthington
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi. Good morning. The next sales picture continues to be quite solid, and the pipeline continues to be strong. An area of weakness seems to be the U.K. It seems like outflows are persisting in the U.K., but getting better. A couple questions. You mentioned the GTR. I think you said $1.7 billion of outflows in the quarter. How much does GTR still manage? And is the expectation for continued outflows, given the performance there? And then what products and businesses are working best in the U.K.? And what is the outlook for the U.K. to sort of move back, broadly to positive flows in the future?

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

Why don't I start with GTR and a little bit about Marty, chime in. In terms of where GTR is today, at the end of 9/30/2021, it was down to $8.3 billion. That was down from a peak of $30 billion. The outflows in the quarter were $1.7 billion. Now, that $8.3 billion is not entirely in the U.K., but it is largely in the U.K. In fact, what is reflected in the U.K. is about $6 billion. We are down to a point of at least diminishing headwinds. We do have an expectation that it will continue to decline. I don't think we have seen a bottom there. We do expect it will continue to decline, but the headwinds are diminishing.

I think you see that just in terms of the improved outflows for the U.K. this quarter with $1.8 billion in outflows, which is an improvement from $3.2 billion in the second quarter. Despite some of those outflows, we do see retail overall improving. We see good demand for active European equities and really improving redemption rates for our U.K. equities. There are, I will call it bright spots and green shoots as we continue to work through these GTR headwinds.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Yeah. I'll just add a couple things. I think also important when you look at the period we've been through with U.K. equities in particular and underperformance and so the sentiment was quite negative in the sector too. The combination is not very positive for results. The short-term performance has improved quite dramatically and in the U.K. equities, which is important. The ETF flows are the other area where we're seeing demand and also the institutional business. You know, as we look forward, as Allison said, we're having some good expectations of being back in the flows in the U.K. here.

Ken Worthington
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, great. Thank you.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Robert Lee with KBW. You may go ahead.

Robert Lee
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, KBW

Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. You know, maybe Marty and Allison, just like to go back to the China, the Greater China business. I mean, you've talked for a while, it seems like a few years almost, with the JV, you know, and maybe bringing it up to majority ownership. You know, I guess one question would be, does it really matter, since you operate it? I mean, does it really even matter, you know, getting to majority ownership? Is that even something that, you know, is at this point even possible? Then, I have a follow-up question after that.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Yeah. Look, you hit it right on the head. I mean, the fundamental difference that we've had as opposed to every other joint venture that we know of, there could be someone similar to us. I don't know who that is, but having a sort of management control has been the separating factor. I think most people use majority control as shorthand for management control, but we've had that. You know, we continue to be in discussions with you know, our joint venture partner. You know, it's likely we'll end up with majority, but it's not going to be a huge change in the ownership, but it's not going to get in the way at all of our development in China and the success we've had.

You really hit the point that is most relevant for our success there.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

The only change, if we were to do that, would be an accounting change in terms of how we recognize the joint venture on the P&L. It wouldn't change anything day-to-day in how we operate it or the success of the venture.

Robert Lee
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, KBW

Okay, great. Maybe to follow up, to shift gears a bit. I mean, haven't really talked about it too much, I think, in recent quarters, but you know, there was a time where you made some acquisitions and made investments in different technology platforms and I know bringing them all under the intelliflo umbrella. Can you maybe give us a quick update on you know, kind of the strategic positioning or importance of that, and maybe to what extent those platforms you're starting to see some positive impact, and how they may be helping the flow picture, if at all.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

You're right. It was a combination of you know five you know smaller acquisitions to create the platform. Last year was a year of pulling it together under the intelliflo banner. The largest and most developed of which is intelliflo in the U.K., which still has a 40% market share. You know we continue to look at ways to not just advance the technology, but how can it you know advance flows in that market. You know we've had some great success with that right now, but we're continuing to challenge that. Here in the United States the same thing where we think the opportunity is is serving the RIA market. Again we're now just frankly turning our attention to it after really the consolidation last year.

Look, we still think there's, you know, if you just look at the way digital technologies are being used in a place like China, that's really what gave us the impetus to spend time and energy there. It has proven to be stunningly successful in China. There's different regulatory, you know, barriers here in the United States and structures and the like, but we still think there's an opportunity for success there. You know, we'll see in the quarters ahead if we're right.

Robert Lee
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, KBW

Great. Thank you for taking my questions.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Bill Katz with Citigroup. You may go ahead.

Bill Katz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citigroup

Okay. Thank you very much for taking the question this morning. First question is just on the opportunity to take advantage of the democratization of retail alternatives. Could you maybe expand a little bit on what strategically you're doing there to gin up the volume, serving the 1 billion or so is favorable, and the 4 billion overall is very good, but we're seeing some very big numbers elsewhere and sort of wondering what you're doing to leverage both the product and distribution relationships you have.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Yeah. Bill, great question. You know, it's where we see the immediate opportunity for us is with our direct real estate business. Earlier in the year, we entered into a partnership with UBS using you know INREIT you know capability that's being distributed in Switzerland, Asia and EMEA. We now have an INREIT product here in the United States, and we're just working with our distribution partners right now to get it on the platform. It's probably got you know through the end of the year to get on to all the platforms that we're hopeful to get on. We look at it as a huge opportunity just because there are very few competitors there.

If you look at, you know, the success and pedigree of our real estate team, it's very, very strong. It's traditionally been in the institutional market. It has not been in the real estate market. That's really, Bill, I think, where you're going. It's a combination of having, you know, alternative capability, but also the ability to distribute into the wealth management platforms. That's what we're looking forward to, hopefully taking advantage of.

Bill Katz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citigroup

Great. Thanks. Maybe one big picture question as well, just to follow up. Some of the distributors are talking about accelerating the direct indexation opportunity, so to customize thought process. How would that affect Invesco, good or bad?

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Well, it's hard to know. It all depends on where everybody goes. What we do have is, you know, we have a self-indexing capability ourselves. You know, I can tell you the experience we've had in building models, we use that in those model creations, so you could see that to continue to be an extension there. Also with our institutional clients, again, you know, we're using that same self-indexing capability, you know, to build customized, you know, indexes for institutional clients. You know, we look at it as we're probably one of very few institutions that have that capability, and we expect that we'd use it, probably in partnership with, you know, a number of our clients and wealth management partners.

Bill Katz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citigroup

Thank you.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Thanks, Bill.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank. You may go ahead.

Brian Bedell
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Great. Thanks. Good morning, folks. Maybe just back on indexing and on the M&A front, in terms of the strategic optionality that you mentioned, Allison, in the comments you mentioned, Marty, as well. Just, I guess, how important is having a beta index franchise? So, you know, as opposed to smart beta and, you know, a beta ETF capability, is that a strategic imperative for you, or do you think you can, you know, grow organically in factor-based or self-index based strategies, you know, on your own? And then also, I guess, would you consider a joint venture as an option in doing that if you had, you know, I assume you'd want management control of that just like you have in China.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Yeah. You know, look, if you just follow the flows, I mean, there continues to be, you know, demand in, you know, cap weighted indexes and, you know, also in smart beta. You know, our history is we really started in sort of a smart beta category, and you're seeing, you know, just ever increasing demand there. It's really the answer is both. It's what's happening in portfolios, and, you know, you want to be relevant in those marketplaces. You know, our focus, you know, has been heads down and continues to grow. Allison talked about the Qs in particular, recognizing it's the limitation we have from a fee generation point of view, but it's been very, very important for building out our ETF platform and the reputation of the firm.

Again, we'll just continue to, you know, challenge our competitive positioning and, you know, determine which is the best way forward. You know, so far I'd say our success has been quite good.

Brian Bedell
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

If you did wanna enter into an arrangement, would you consider a JV in that type of structure or is that not even doable?

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

It's hard to know. I mean, it's all facts and circumstances, so I wouldn't wanna speculate on it.

Brian Bedell
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

I agree. Just on sustainable fund flows for 3Q, and total dedicated sustainable AUM. I don't know if you wanted to comment also on the Bitcoin ETF strategy between physical and futures for that option.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Yeah, why don't I start on you know what we're doing in Bitcoin and the like. We've entered into a partnership with Galaxy Digital. That's who we're gonna work with to build out our whole suite of you know ETF you know capabilities you know underlying blockchain technology, digital assets, and crypto. Our focus is on a physically backed. It's gonna be some time, I think, before we get into the market, right? It's at the SEC right now, and you know we've all known that you know they're still working through that as a topic.

We've introduced, you know, two ETFs into the market that sort of, you know, invest in companies that, you know, build off and, you know, play on the blockchain technology and the like. We did back away from doing a futures backed product because we think that, you know, the best alternative going forward is really the physically backed product.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

On your sustainability question, our flows into ESG capabilities in the third quarter was a little bit soft, about $300 million of positive inflows in the quarter. We continue to have about $51.5 billion of AUM that we would consider to be ESG funds and mandates. That really spans across 160 ESG funds and mandates in a variety of asset classes. I'd say importantly, we remain the second-largest ESG ETF player in the world. Flows are a little bit softer in the third quarter relative to what we've seen in the first half of the year. Nothing to point to one way or the other there, but you know, our expectation is to continue to see demand for those capabilities.

Brian Bedell
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Great. Thanks for all the color.

Operator

Thank you. Our final question is from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. You may go ahead.

Alex Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Wanted to shift gears a little bit, maybe go back to slide 13, Allison, that you highlighted in the prepared remarks. Definitely impressive to see the margin expansion despite the headwinds that you've seen in the period. I'm curious how you're thinking about the margin trajectory longer term, assuming a more normalized market, which, you know, normalized is always a question mark, but, you know, clearly market tail has been pretty significant over the last year or so. You know, with the cost-cutting program, I think most of the way through, is it still likely for an investor to see operating leverage off of this kind of 42% level over time, assuming, again, kind of a more normalized market spectrum?

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

Yeah, I mean, I would say a couple of things. One, in terms of outlook for net revenue yield and just how we think about the fee rates from here, I mean, the biggest driver is always gonna be the mix of flows that we see. That's gonna have a, you know, huge impact. As we continue to see client demand for all of our capabilities, but certainly increasing demand for our passive capabilities, you see that downward pressure. At the same time, you know, market impact can work in either direction. It doesn't work consistently across those different asset classes and capabilities. It's inherently difficult to predict for that reason. In terms of though just bigger picture, how do we think about it?

I mean, I do think we'll continue to see some modest downward pressure on it just as we continue to grow our passive capabilities, and we see demand for those capabilities. Hopefully it was also helpful to kind of understand the impact that the QQQ has on that. While it puts downward pressure on net revenue yield, it creates a tremendous benefit for us, through the marketing, support budget that it provides us. I think, you know, really most importantly, we are able to generate that positive operating leverage and really, improve margins against this. Where do I think it goes from here? I'd say a couple of things.

One, I think the company has come towards the end of this expense management effort that we put in place last year, and we expect to complete that next year. You know, I don't think we have to continue to do things like that in order to sustain these strong operating margins. We've got an expense base that's over $3 billion. It's a significant budget to work with. How we think about it is really how do we deploy that expense base? How do we continue to reallocate where we invest against our areas of highest demand?

As we've built out the breadth of capability, that scale, and the volume of flows is what continues to generate, you know, really the positive operating leverage that we're looking for and gives us the opportunity to sustain these, you know, 40% plus operating margins, even with some of that downward pressure in net revenue yield. You know, I appreciate you asking the question because I think it's a really important point that we wanted to drive home, and we wanted it to come through today, because this didn't happen by accident.

It really reflects a lot of deliberate work by the company over the last couple of years and an operating expense base that really gives us the leverage we need to continue to invest in the areas of growth that we see ahead.

Alex Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Perfect. Great. Thank you very much.

Allison Dukes
CFO, Invesco

Thanks, Alex.

Marty Flanagan
President and CEO, Invesco

Good one. On behalf of Allison and myself, thank you very much for joining. I appreciate the questions and engagement, and I look forward to talking with everybody next quarter.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

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