Good morning. My name is Sunidra. I would like to welcome everyone to the JetBlue Airways Second Quarter 20 21 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode.
20. I would now like to turn the call over to JetBlue's Director of Investor Relations, Joe Caliatto. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Anidra. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our Q2 2021 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release and a presentation that we will reference during this call. 20. All those documents are available on our website at investor.
Jetblue.com and have been filed with the SEC. In New York to discuss our results are Robin Hayes, our Chief Executive Officer 2. Joanna Garrity, our President and Chief Operating Officer and Ursula Hurley, our acting Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q and A are Scott Lawrence, 2nd quarter, Head of Revenue and Planning Dave Clark, VP of Sales and Revenue Management and Andres Barry, President of JetBlue Travel Products. 2.
This morning's call includes forward looking statements about future events. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements due to many factors, 20 2.5% and therefore, investors should not place undue reliance on these statements. For additional information concerning factors that could cause results to differ from the forward looking statements, please refer to our press release and other reports 12 of the SEC. Also during the course of our call, we may discuss several non GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these non GAAP measures 2.
And now I'd like to turn the call over to Robin Hayes, JetBlue's CEO.
20. Thanks, Joe, and welcome to your first earnings call with JetBlue. It's great to have you on the team. And I'm also very excited to have Ursula 20. So Ursula, welcome to your first earnings call.
You've been in the room for years, but welcome to the seat. 20. So good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by thanking our inspiring 20,000 crew members for their determination 2nd quarter 2020. Through the most challenging period in our history, and now in taking on the difficult task of restoring operations back to normal levels.
2. The recovery in air travel has come more quickly than we expected. In addition, our recovery is being accelerated by our Northeast alliance 2. Vaccines have clearly catalyzed consumer confidence, and we're pleased to see our customers traveling with us in greater numbers. 20.
Thanks to the outstanding efforts of our crew members in taking care of our customers and each other. JetBlue is well positioned for success, and I couldn't be more excited about the future. 20. Turning to Slide 4 of the earnings deck. In the 2nd quarter, we saw strong signs that consumer confidence and travel demand is returning, 2.
With 2nd quarter revenue doubling compared to the Q1 driven by pent up demand, JetBlue reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.65 2. As we capitalize on the strength of our brand, our distinctive positioning in the accelerated leisure accelerating leisure market and the draw of our focus cities. 20. The quick operational ramp up and unusually severe weather in the Northeast has come with challenges, but we are pleased with the continued improvement in demand trends through the summer. We operated a peak 9 29 flights per day in early July, a far cry from the roughly 140 average daily departures in the Q2 a year ago.
We also expect capacity to be largely restored to 2019 levels in the Q3 20. As a result of the increased demand and growth opportunities from our Northeast alliance, an important milestone in our recovery. 20. As we march towards the full recovery, we will be laser focused on executing our plan to put us back on a path towards superior margins. We are confident that our competitive advantages, our Cervix, outstanding onboard product and cost structure and the disciplined approach 2 years preceding the pandemic will drive our long term recovery and sustainable success.
Margin is firmly back as our North Star. 2. And as we start to realize benefits from and we are starting to realize benefits from our new commercial and revenue initiatives, and we'll be sharing more on that 20. Moving to Slide 5. As we turn to recovery, we continue to generate positive cash from operations in the 2nd quarter, And we expect continued improvement in our operating performance as we progress towards a full recovery.
We are creating a path to restore our earnings power to beyond 2019 levels and generate long term value for our owners in the years ahead, enabled by an accelerated recovery and the earnings and margin tailwinds from our Northeast alliance. 20. Our attention now is squarely rebuilding our margins and repairing our balance sheet. To rebuild our margins, we are executing 2. Various revenue initiatives across the network and business, while continuing to focus on cost control and sound capital allocation.
2017. Regarding our network, we have added new destinations and more service to our focus cities to help our customers travel again, including 8 new routes set to launch in the coming months. 2. In August, we expect to launch our 1st transatlantic flight to London, and we remain committed to our long term strategy to bring our unique combination of low fares and great service We are disappointed with the continued restrictions on travel between the U. S.
And the U. K. And urge regulators to safely reopen borders to travel. 2. We are planning schedule adjustments for this fall to match the current demand environment.
And once the path of the Board's reopening is clear, we expect demand to bounce back quickly, 20. Just as it has in the rest of our network. In New York and Boston, we are already seeing the initial benefits of our Northeast alliance with American Airlines. 2. We believe this partnership will be a key driver in accelerating JetBlue's recovery and an important contributor to our long term growth, 2.
The Northeast Alliance supports our expansion in both New York and Boston, And we're excited to see almost 20 new flights and multiple new markets in LaGuardia launching this fall, with many more to come in 2022. At both JetBlue and American Express flying, we remain focused on developing a seamless travel experience for our customers, and we are making the many necessary investments. 20. Given the new growth opportunities provided by our Northeast Alliance, we reexamined our fleet to ensure we are well equipped to capitalize fully 2. We have a plan to delay our retirement schedule for our owned E190s, continued to align with the demand environment.
Our commercial efforts continue to drive incremental revenue and position JetBlue for margin expansion. 2. In the Northeast Alliance, I'd like to highlight 3 specific initiatives. In addition to the Northeast Alliance, I should say, I'd like to highlight 3 specific initiatives. 2.
We are pleased with the early results of our fare options update, which is providing a significant revenue tailwind. Our JetBlue travel products subsidiary generated our highest ever single quarter commissions revenue across all products, including JetBlue Vacations. 2. Finally, we are thrilled to announce the extension of our co brand agreement with Barclays and Mastercard, which will greatly enhance the value of our program. 2.
We expect all of these initiatives to significantly drive margin expansion as we look ahead. With margin as our North Star, 20. We will make investments in the Northeast Alliance, but while adding cost pressures unlock 22. These growth opportunities are emerging faster than we expected, and we are pulling forward some CASM pressure in 2022 20. We remain laser focused on our cost structure and believe we have a good trajectory over the longer term to support our efforts to expand earnings and margins.
In the near term, we are working through various cost headwinds as we recover, notably with maintenance, rents, 2nd quarter. We believe some of these pressures will prove temporary and are a natural part of a recovery. 20. Our teams are working hard to mitigate these headwinds and ensure we execute on our fixed cost savings. We expect to share more color on this important work as we add to our list 2.5% in the quarter.
Lastly, we took another step forward in repairing our balance sheet by paying down our term loan, 2 part of our balanced approach to capital allocation. We expect to continue paying down high cost debt while investing in margin and earnings accretive aircraft. 20. Moving now to Slide 6. Our optimism in JetBlue's future grows day by day.
As we recover from the greatest crisis in our history, We will continue executing our plan to emerge as a stronger airline equipped for long term sustainable profitable growth. 20. The sustainability of our future growth is in fact stitched into our strategy as we work to mitigate risks, reduce our carbon footprint and create value for our owners. Importantly, part of our executive incentive plan is tied to ESG. 2.
We continue on our path to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2,040, and we're pleased to report that we recently signed an agreement to purchase sustainable aviation fuel 22 or SaaS at LAX and took our first delivery earlier this month. This followed JetBlue's move last year to fuel flights from San Francisco with SaaS. 2. SaaS is one of the most promising ways to reduce air travel emissions. All stakeholders, airlines, manufacturers, fuel suppliers, governments and investors 20.
We'll need to play a part and a role to help grow and scale SaaS and usher in a new lower carbon future for aviation. 20. So in conclusion from me, I'd close by again thanking our incredible crew members for everything they've done through this pandemic and particularly 2nd quarter over the last couple of months as our airline has come roaring back. Semler has always had its share of challenges, but your energy and commitment are bringing customers back 2.5% of our total revenue growth of approximately $1,000,000,000 of revenue. We are excited we are as excited as ever as we charter calls towards generating superior margins.
With that, 20. I'll hand off to Joanna.
Thank you, Robin. I'll start by adding my thanks to our amazing crew members who are rising to the challenge rapidly restoring our operations to meet pent up demand while managing an unusual amount of severe weather days. It has truly been a team effort. 20. We brought all crew members back from leave.
We are hiring new crew members. Many are picking up extra hours to support the large number of customers flying 2 and our support center crew members have been turning out in strong numbers to help support our operational ramp up. We also appreciate our customers who are flying in record numbers again and are excited to connect them to their destinations. This swift rebound in travel demand has come with operational challenges across the industry, which we believe will ease as we move through the summer. We are pleased to be in a position today where we are growing once again and welcoming more JetBlue crew members to our family.
20. Turning to Slide 8. We're very excited about a number of revenue initiatives currently underway to drive profitable growth. As Robin mentioned, 2. We're encouraged by the early results of our Northeast alliance with American Airlines.
This is driving compelling benefits for our customers 2nd quarter. It is resulting in incremental capacity and revenue growth. Thus far, codeshare revenue is 2017. We are particularly excited by the positive initial response from many of our corporate customers. Through this alliance, we can provide our business and leisure customers a more compelling network and schedule offering, such as our plans to operate up to 12 daily round trips in the fall between LaGuardia and Boston.
Last quarter, we continued to roll out codeshare markets and launched the ability to earn points or miles on either JetBlue or American for both TrueBlue and Advantage members. 2019. Starting this fall, elite members of both programs will be able to enjoy benefits on both carriers. So far, the NEA has announced a total of 58 new markets, 22 flown by JetBlue with many more to come. The success of the NEA will come not just from a greatly expanded network with more JetBlue flying, We're also very pleased with the contributions from our recent update to our fare options platform, which is trending above the expected one point of revenue benefit and currently contributing closer to 2 points of revenue for the Q3 and beyond.
We have seen a double digit increase in customer demand to buy up from our BlueBasic offering. 20. We believe we offer the best product at a low price in every category that we serve. Our JetBlue travel product subsidiary remains a bright spot 20. JetBlue Vacation sales were up over 60% year over 2.
Travel insurance attach rates continued growing as we better tailor products to evolving customer needs 2. And we recently issued an RFP, which generated a positive initial response. We are also seeing continued growth from car rentals and increasingly hotels by better targeting our offers via our recently launched Paisley platform. Our continued investment in product development, 2019 and marketing of broader travel products provides us a path to reach $100,000,000 in run rate EBIT next year. 20.
Moving to Slide 9. We're very bullish and loyalty, and we are supercharging our performance in this space by building on our award winning TrueBlue program and 2 and high growth cobrand portfolio. We have laid the groundwork to evolve the benefits and value proposition of TrueBlue, 20. Add additional value and versatility to our currency of points and further enhance our cobrand portfolio. As Part of our plan's foundation, we are very pleased to announce the renewal of our partnerships with Barclays and Mastercard for our co brand credit card program.
2. They have both been tremendous partners over the past several years, and we are very excited to continue growing the portfolio and enhancing value for all stakeholders. 2. We expect our new agreement will deliver approximately an incremental one point to our annualized revenue and margin and many exciting enhancements are in store. In the immediate term, we are seeing material growth in the co brand portfolio, including record breaking acquisition on the JetBlue Plus card.
2. This is an important funnel to grow our loyal customer base. Spend from existing card members is also up significantly. 2. Both of these will contribute to our growing revenue performance.
Moving to Slide 10. In the second quarter, Our revenue declined 29% year over 2, a 32% sequential improvement from the prior quarter and better than our latest planning assumption. 2. Throughout the quarter, demand trends exceeded our initial revenue expectations. Our recent co brand agreement, which was not included in our planning 2nd quarter.
We are pleased to see further month on month improvement into the peak summer months with demand momentum across all of our geographies. Our leisure fares continue to improve and return to 2019 levels this month supported by the strong recovery in demand and load factors. We ended the quarter with load factors in the mid-80s with June capacity largely back to pre pandemic levels 2nd quarter compared to an average load factor in the mid-60s in the first quarter on 41% less capacity year over 2. 2nd quarter. At the
end of
the Q2, we were generating average daily cash sales in excess of $20,000,000 which marks a considerable expansion from the $15,000,000 per day at the end of March. For the Q3 of 2021, our planning assumption for revenue is a decline between 4% 9% year over 2, another quarter of strong sequential improvement of approximately 20 points. We expect unit revenue to continue to improve on top of increasing 20. Capacity with load factors into the mid-80s this summer and yields approaching 2019 levels despite our heavier leisure mix. 20.
We've seen days with average paid load factors in the 90s. We've been pleased to see a stronger than expected leisure recovery through summer and looking further ahead, We are optimistic for business travel to show a more robust recovery post Labor Day. Our customers are guiding us to expect an acceleration in business demand recovery this fall as people return to the office and travel policies become less restrictive. 20. That said, we will remain flexible given the potential for future demand volatility due to variance and the course of the pandemic.
20. Turning to capacity on Slide 11. In the 2nd quarter, our flown capacity declined 15% year over 2. For the Q3 of 2021, our planning assumption is for capacity to be down between flat to down 3% 2, given the strong sequential improvement in demand. Throughout the pandemic, we have been nimble in adjusting our capacity deployment to the prevailing demand environment.
While we are not seeing an impact on bookings from variance, we'll maintain this approach given the uncertainty. 2. Our VFR and leisure revenue was performing nicely and leading the travel rebound. We are also very pleased with the performance from our investments at LAX in Newark. 2nd quarter 2020.
In addition, we are continuously optimizing our network, focused on reallocating capacity to our highest margin opportunities. 2. As our Northeast alliance with American Airlines continues to accelerate our recovery, we are collaborating closely to reinforce benefits to our customers 2 by growing and harmonizing our schedules, flying to new destinations to serve more customers, adding frequencies and all at low fares. 2. We are very excited for our partnership to provide a path for JetBlue to grow and provide more options to customers out of New York and Boston.
20. I will close with my deepest thanks to all of our crew members for their hard work and resilience in ramping the operation to serve our customers 2nd quarter 2020 and handling the operational challenges with professionalism. Our crew members form the core and the foundation of JetBlue's success. 2nd quarter 2020. As we look ahead, I could not be more excited about the future of JetBlue as we execute our initiatives to grow revenue and margins and expand our loyal customer base.
20. With that, over to you, Orsula.
Thank you, Joanna. I'd like to add my thanks to our crew members for their hard work to restore JetBlue and set us up for future success. The robust margin accretive revenue initiatives you've heard about from Robin and Joanna, combined with our ongoing 20.5% and margin focus give me enormous confidence in our future. I'll start on Slide 13 with a brief overview of our financial 2. Operating expenses were down 27% year over 2.
Excluding the benefit from payroll support programs 23, operating expenses were down 7% year over 2. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $86,000,000 and GAAP earnings per share was $0.20 and adjusted loss per share was $0.65 2. Starting with our operational performance. Our 2nd quarter adjusted EBITDA came in better than the range we anticipated in early June. 2.
This was mainly the result of improving underlying revenue trends, the contribution from our co brand agreement 2nd quarter and our focus on mitigating cost pressures as we ramp up. For the Q3, we estimate our EBITDA will range between $75,000,000 $175,000,000 reflecting continued sequential improvement in demand, 2nd quarter, partially offset by continued cost pressures from fuel prices and airport rents and landing fees. 2nd quarter. We expect to remain in positive EBITDA territory through the end of the year and expect to generate pre tax profits in both July August. 20.
Turning to slide 14. We are pleased to see the progression in the revenue recovery and are deploying capacity to near pre pandemic levels to meet demand. We'll maintain a laser focus on cost control as an important contributor in putting JetBlue back on a path towards superior margins. We'll continue to maintain a nimble approach in managing our business as we are mindful of the potential choppiness 2nd quarter. During the Q2, our adjusted operating expenses declined 7% 20 2, in line with our prior assumptions.
This excludes a payroll benefit of $366,000,000 22nd quarter 2020. Our CASM ex fuel declined meaningfully from a 41% increase year over 2 in the 1st quarter 2nd quarter. For the Q3, our planning assumption is 2nd quarter for a CASM ex fuel increase between 11% to 13%, resulting in a sequential improvement over the 2nd quarter. 2. This 11% to 13% increase includes approximately 6 points of temporary headwinds as follows: 2.
Approximately 3 to 4 points from rents and landing fees and roughly 2 points from ramp up labor costs. 2. Given the faster than expected ramp up and to help manage operational challenges worsened by weather events, 2. We are offering financial incentives to ensure we are appropriately staffed for the summer peak travel period. 20.
We expect to gain efficiencies over the coming months as our newly hired crew members are trained to support the operation. 20. Lastly, entering the Q3 and into next year, we expect to incur higher maintenance costs as as we begin to cycle through a year's worth of maintenance that we deferred from the pandemic to protect liquidity. This is worth approximately 4 points 22. Looking ahead to 2022, we are laser focused on aggressively managing our costs and expanding our margins 2nd quarter.
As we continue to grow capacity and earnings, we expect CASM ex fuel to improve from a double digit growth rate in 2nd quarter of 2021 to low single digit growth in 2022 compared to 2019. 2. This cost trajectory is due to the timing shift on maintenance events tied to COVID, rents and landing fees, 2nd quarter. We 2017. We expect elevated maintenance expenses through the medium term to support our aging fleet and as we work through a significant volume of events, which we deferred through the pandemic.
While the timing is fluid, we currently expect rents and landing fees to continue to be a headwind into 2020 2, but this should normalize over time as industry wide traffic returns and rates stabilize in our key airports. 20. As Robin and Joanna mentioned, we are also investing in our transformative Northeast alliance, which is already outpacing expectations and will create long term value for our shareholders. We expect this will drive CASM pressure as we emerge from the crisis. 20.
This will allow us to capitalize on the meaningful growth opportunities from the NEA in a capital light and flexible way, 20, 2019, resulting in margin expansion and earnings growth. The investments include delaying our E190 retirement schedule, 2 earnings accretive growth at high cost airports and creating a seamless customer experience. 20. Mitigating these headwinds is critical as our operation continues to recover, and we're doubling down on our efforts to maintain a competitive cost structure. 2.
In addition to the progress we are making in reducing fixed costs, we are targeting productivity gains as operations normalize 20.5% to optimize our cost base as we work towards our goal of generating superior margins. 20. We are also actively identifying further areas of cost opportunities and expect to share more details on our next set of structural cost initiatives following the 2022 planning cycle. We are committed to generating better than pre pandemic earnings in the next few years 2 by growing revenue and controlling costs, and we are extremely confident that we are on the right path to expand margins in a sustainable way. 20.
Moving to Slide 16. In the second quarter, we took delivery of 2 A220s, 2 A321neos and 2 A321LRs. The fleet stood at 276 aircraft at the end of June, and we expect to take delivery of 5 additional aircraft during the Q3. Our 2021 CapEx forecast remains at approximately $1,000,000,000 2019, the majority of which is aircraft CapEx, which we expect to fund using cash. Turning to the balance sheet and liquidity on Slide 17.
At the end of June, our unrestricted cash and short term investments were $3,700,000,000 or 46 percent of 2019 revenue. 2. We remain comfortable with our strong liquidity position and we believe we have the ability to raise additional liquidity 20 20.5 percent at attractive and competitive rates if necessary. We're now squarely focused on repairing our balance sheet, lowering our total cost of debt and growing our unencumbered asset base. At the end of June, our debt to cap ratio was 55%, 20.2% a slight decrease from the prior quarter.
During the Q2, we made further progress towards delevering by $2,000,000 term loan. We also received over $1,100,000,000 from a combination of proceeds, 2nd and third rounds of PSP. As a result of these actions, we've reduced our net debt by over 20.50 percent to under $1,000,000,000 at the end of June, bringing our net debt below pre pandemic levels.
20 20
20. Turning to slide 18. In 2021, we have repaid a total of $1,300,000,000 of debt 20 $20,000,000 in 2021. In addition to our net debt, these actions have lowered our weighted average cost of debt 20 2 pre pandemic levels and increased the amount of unencumbered high value collateral. 20.
As we manage through the recovery, we plan to continue paying down high cost debt. We'll maintain our balanced approach to capital allocation
20 2.
I'll close with a huge thank you to our crew members for all of their efforts to ensure JetBlue emerges from the crisis as a stronger airline. We're extremely pleased to see our customers returning in great numbers, 20. And JetBlue is well positioned with a strong balance sheet and a path towards generating earnings growth and creating value for our owners. 2. With that, we will now take your questions.
Thank you, Sanitra. We're ready for the analyst Q and A portion.
20
20. And your first question comes from Savi Syth with Raymond James.
20. Hey, good morning, everyone. Just kind of curious on your capacity outlook for 2022 that undisclosed the ex 2 cost guide that you gave and kind of what your revised plans are along those lines for the E-one hundred and ninety fleet?
20. Good morning, Savi. Thank you for the question. This is Ursula. In regards to 2022 capacity, 22.
What we're trying to do this morning is provide you a level of transparency around the costs and how you should think about them over the next 2 quarter as well as into 2022. We, at this time, are not specifically guiding to 2022 capacity as we're still working through our 20 2 planning process. Given the volatility and uncertainty in the environment around COVID and the ramp up of business travel, there are 2. But you should be assured that we'll set our 2022 capacity level 20. And we'll adjust as we navigate through the recovery.
20. In regards to the E190, at this point in time, we have delayed the retirement of the 30 owned aircraft. 20. And we will evaluate over time the optimal time from a cost perspective as well as 20. Capitalizing on the NEA opportunity to determine the most optimal time to retire those aircraft.
20. Sorry, Celine, if I could on that, do the other E190s then go away? And is there kind of a 20. Lower and upper bound of what flexibility you have on the capacity front.
So as a reminder, we have 60 E-190s in the fleet. 20. So 30 of them are leased. So those we intend to return at the appropriate time. So those aircraft will return between 232026.
The 30 owned aircraft, as I mentioned, 20. We will determine the optimal time to retire those. However, I want to remind you, we're keeping them in the fleet to 2nd quarter. So we are making investments in that fleet type 20 to ensure that we can grow margins and capitalize on the Northeast Alliance opportunity.
20. And if I might clarify on the Northeast Alliance opportunity, the investments you're making, does that get built into the base or do those investment pressures then go away as you kind of leave 2022.
Sure. So there are 2 to 4 points of CASM ex fuel investment 2. To capitalize on the Northeast opportunity. We those are put in 3 categories. So first and foremost, we're investing to ensure that there's a 20.
The second area we're investing in is delaying the E-190 aircraft. So ensuring that the customer 2nd quarter 2020. Experience on that aircraft and the maintenance is associated and embedded into the guidance in keeping that 20. And then the 3rd area of investment is accelerating our growth in high cost, high value airports Such as LaGuardia and Newark here in the Northeast.
Got it. All right. Appreciate the color. 20. And your next question comes from Dan McKenzie.
Yes. Hey, good morning. Thanks 2. And just kind of following up on that last question, the accelerated growth in high cost, high value airports, Specifically, Newark LaGuardia. Are there other airports that you're looking to grow as a function of the relationship with American Airlines?
2. Hey, Scott, you want to take that?
Yes. Hey, Dan. It's Scott Lawrence. Thanks for the question. If you look at the NEA, it covers 4 airports, so JFK, 2.
LaGuardia, Newark and Boston. We anticipate significant growth at those 4 airports because of the NEA and the opportunity that's there. We've got something that's transformational in terms of the opportunity and the ability to ramp the benefit from that quickly. 2. If you think about where we're going or where we've been and where we're going, in 2019, JFK sort of sat at about 175 peak flights.
2. We expect steady state to be over 200. Newark going from about 35 to 70 flights. LaGuardia going from 16 to 50 to 60 2. And Boston going from 175 to over 230.
So a lot of growth there. We believe it's Hugely beneficial for us. There are a number of things here in terms of channel shift and also customer benefit as we see JetBlue growing, 2. Adding competition, really challenging the dominant carriers in the Northeast, and really a win win here.
20. Then the next sort of logical question to that at some point here is, 20. Are you exploring and entering into one world? What are the pros and cons at this point as you think about developing that relationship with American?
20. So Dan, it's a natural question to ask us. And I think that, as we've looked at Global Alliances, our story has not changed there that, we see a pretty large investment 2. For a carrier like JetBlue and things like training, and we think that we've got a better mousetrap. Our open architecture 20 partnership's strategy has worked really well for us, and it allows us to do so in a really responsible way in terms of cost.
20. Over the long term, we'd never rule out opportunities, but right now, it seems to make sense to pursue a strategy that's working for us.
20. And your next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerke.
Hey, thanks. 20. Just curious, when would you envision guiding to pretax margins or net income margins as some of your peers have started to do?
20. Good morning, Dwayne.
Thank you for the question. So as we provided guidance this morning, we are going to be EBITDA 2 positive in the Q3 as well as the Q4. I also noted in my remarks that we will be 2. As you think about September, September has historically been 12 months for JetBlue. And what I would also highlight is that we're being cautious around the return of business traffic.
20. However, what I would note is that we're extremely pleased with how the Northeast alliance has been accelerating in in terms of ramp up. So we do believe that that will provide us some momentum year over 2 as we look at the September timeframe.
And Duane, if I can just build on that, because I think it's a great question. If I think through the various stages of the 20. We started very much talking in terms of daily cash burn. We then sort of moved to EBITDA because 2. We felt that was sort of a measure of our sort of operating performance, our ability to drive revenue and manage costs.
And 20. As everyone remembers, JetBlue was probably the most impacted airline in the early days from a revenue perspective given our geography in the Northeast. And so we're extremely aggressive 2. It is at deferring many costs, including some of the maintenance costs that, Ursula referred to. And I think we're very close here to being at a transition Into pretax margin reflecting ultimately that's what we're aiming for and everything we're putting in place here is to drive 2.
Significant margin expansion into next year and beyond.
Okay. And then just for 20. Follow-up with respect to these deferred retirements. Can you just remind us kind of where you stand on 2022 2023 CapEx. And is there any element of this that's about delays, delivery delays or have you shifted CapEx out?
20. Or is the message the capital plan is the same, we're just going to fly more on this higher CASM sub fleet that we expected to retire?
20. Thanks for the follow-up question, Duane. So in regards to the capital plan for 2021, we've guided $1,000,000,000 2nd quarter. We intend to take 12 aircraft next year, and that will drive approximately the same CapEx profile to 2021. 20.
In regards to 2023, we have a step up in the quantity of A220 deliveries. 20. So you will have a slightly elevated CapEx profile in 2023 compared to 2021 2022. 20. In regards to the investments in fleet, has it changed?
The simple answer is no. 20. The decision we've made is to simply delay the E190 retirement, which is a capital light 2nd quarter.
Okay. Thank you.
20. And your next question comes from Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.
20. Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the time. My first question is really maybe a follow-up to Duane's first question. So 20.
You're expecting to be pretax profit over July August, sounds like not so for September. And based on your answer, Duane, it sounds like 20. That's really just more a view on leisure revenue dropping off and maybe a little bit of a slower rebound 2. In corporate or just a continued slower, I don't mean like relative to your prior expectations, just that that's ramping up slower than leisure generally. 20.
So it sounds a little bit more revenue based. I guess like first, is that right? And then second, moving forward, getting to that pretax profitability, 20. Is it really just about corporate ramping up from here? Are there any other cost items we should be keeping an eye on the second half that might impact that?
Thanks.
20. Yes. Thanks, Kathy. I'll take that. It's Robin.
I think that The comment on September is right. I mean, if you look at sort of historically for JetBlue, that's always been our most challenging month. And so 2. That combined with sort of some uncertainty around the pace of corporate travel, we are reading a lot about 2. Some companies moving office openings back from September to October.
So we just sort of want to be cautious about that. When we think about what we're focused on, we're very we're focused on margin. And again, EBITDA is really something that we entered into the year with. 2. And I think we said at the time, at some point this would transition back to margin.
When I look at all the revenue initiatives, we talked today about how fare options is 20. We talked about the TrueBlue program. We've talked about how quickly JetBlue travel product is driving 2 margin. And you've seen the cost that is the additional CASM that is driven by the NEA and we believe the NEA to be Very accretive. And so when you look at all of those revenue initiatives together, we're very confident about 2.
Their ability to drive margin as we head into next year. I think our caution is just around that we've been here before. 2. We still are concerned that a spike in varying cases or other concerns could impact future 20. Demand and we said for over a year now, this could remain a very nonlinear part.
So we certainly don't want to get ahead ourselves in setting expectations, 2. But we have been extremely aggressive about lining up a set of revenue initiatives and our focus on cost to drive margin expansion Very rapidly into 2022.
Okay, understood. And then maybe just a quick follow-up. 2. In the slides, your debt payments for the rest of the year shown, not showing any more prepayments. I think that's just a little bit of a placeholder for now.
2. But based on your current cash flow outlook, might there be some additional issuances you would look to prepay? And then just more generally, how are you thinking about pacing 2 incremental debt prepayments. Are there any gating factors for you to do more on this front? Thanks for all the time.
20. Appreciate the question. So we're very focused on repairing the balance sheet. The goal is to get back to pre COVID investment grade metrics. We have I'm extremely pleased with the progress that we've made to date in regards to delevering.
20. We are ensuring that we don't get ahead of ourselves given potential variance and international travel restrictions. So I do want to maintain a healthy cash balance as we go forward. 2. We have identified future debt prepayment opportunities and you should be assured that going forward this is a priority to get back 2, the 30% to 40% debt to cap target that we had coming into COVID.
20. And your next question comes from a Bert Sibin with Stifel.
20. Hey, good morning and thanks for the time. What's the best way to think about the renewed credit card agreement longer term? Is the baseline that that deal adds something around $2,000,000 of revenue this year and then you guys just build on that in the future through acquisitions and increased spend?
2. Hi, great. Thanks for the question. This is Joanna. So first, just really proud of the work the team has done specifically around the co brand agreement.
Obviously, this is initially
tied to the potential for securing the government loan and I think they did an
excellent job pivoting around 2. And I think they did an excellent job pivoting around a longer term renewal with a number of very 2. Interested parties, Barclays Mastercard have been just tremendous partners during this. So as we mentioned during opening remarks, this will add a point of revenue based on the economics of the program and that's based off of 2019 numbers. There's a few sources of value tied to both co brand but also 2.
Longer term at TrueBlue, obviously, seeing strong improvements in unit economics of the overall cobrand deal 20. And additional incremental value as you think about the growth of the program, we've designed the partnership to really incentivize everybody involved to 2. Double down in terms of card acquisition, tapping into parts of the economy that maybe haven't been able to necessarily secure 20 credit card very much supporting some of our DE and I initiatives. If you look at the JetBlue Plus card, we think there's tremendous opportunity there. We've seen record breaking numbers of 2 subscriptions and acquisition rates to the JetBlue Plus card, which obviously has stronger spend as well.
So if you think about co brand specifically, we are very much at the front end of I think what we believe is very strong growth trajectory. Then as you pivot into 2. TrueBlue, the underlying loyalty program. There's a number of areas of opportunities there. We are in the midst of redesigning that program to be far more 2.
Customer centric, it's already an award winning program. Customers love it, but we think we can drive greater attachment and greater stickiness 20. Through a design that really speaks to customers' wants and needs, also continuing to double down on earn and burn redemption opportunities with OA partners and then obviously the NDA is going to give even additional incremental sort of value to our underlying TrueBlue program. So It kind of cuts across a number of different areas. We often talk about how JetBlue's co brand and TrueBlue program is relatively immature.
In this case, I think what that means for us is tremendous ramp and tremendous growth over the coming years and very much closing what has been a gap for us for quite some time.
2. Thanks for that, Joanna. Just one follow-up for Ursula on the cost side. So inflationary pressures, you certainly talked about them 2. And clearly, they're more acute in your core airports.
As we go forward, maybe just on a longer term basis, what do you see as the relative advantages to your peers? Is it really just going to be you get stage growth from adding Europe and other parts to your network and then you get stage growth from refreshing the fleet? Are there other items that you would put in those buckets? 20.
Yes. Thanks for the question. So we're extremely focused on ensuring that we continue to 22. Take out the $150,000,000 to $200,000,000 of fixed costs. We need to ensure that these are maintained into 2022.
2. I think the other area of opportunity is doubling down on productivity. So as the operation and the network to ensure that we're offsetting some of the labor and external inflation that we're seeing today. Also what I would note is in regards to our 21st structural cost program, 50% of the savings within that program are deemed variable. 2.
And so what's happening at the moment is that those savings are being masked by COVID. And so 20. Again, as we reset the network and the operation comes back to a new norm, we expect to see efficiencies as we scale back up. So between the fixed costs $150,000,000 to $200,000,000 the structural cost program and 50% savings, which are variable and then doubling down on productivity, I feel very confident in our path in delivering
20. Your next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. 12. I'm sorry if I missed this in the prepared comments, but did you quantify how much the NEA contributed to 2. Revenues and EBIT in 2Q and kind of how we see that pacing over the next like 12 months and even longer maybe?
20. Hey, it's Scott. So I think we're very pleased with how the NEA is rolling out so far. And while we're not quantifying that, I would say that 2. We're in the very initial stages.
We've got about 40% of sort of code deployed on non 2. Very little code deployed on the connecting markets. And as we move forward and some of the announcements that are out there on frequent traveler reciprocity, 2 business traffic return. And you've seen some of the ads that we've announced and whether that's Boston LaGuardia or Boston DCA coming back Higher frequency schedules as well. There's the whole point of sort of looking at some channel shift.
And I think that's 2. JetBlue service, they see our fare structures, which means that they're realized fares and the average fares will actually come down in a number of these markets as you see JetBlue competing. 2. At the same time, we've been traditionally sitting around 20% leisure customers. And As we look at that, right, every point of that that we increase is worth about $25,000,000 so just in revenue.
So again, I think across the board, we look at this and know that it's a win win for us. And as we roll that out, as we see the customer response, we're happy 2 so far.
If I could just maybe add as well. I mean, we're to say we're excited is an understatement. I mean, this is providing a very formidable third competitor 2. In our Northeast geography that customers will not only benefit from lower fares, but also greater competition in a much more robust network. And If you think about just the size of what we're accomplishing, LaGuardia pre NEA was about 16 daily flights.
It's going to grow to 50 to 60 daily flights 2. JFK was 175, that's going to grow to 220 to 240, Newark 35 20 to 70 to 80 Boston, 180 to well over 200. So I mean this is a meaningful partnership alliance And we could not be more excited about the value that it's going to drive for JetBlue, but even as importantly for our customers who 20. Are in need of that 3rd competitor and frankly just greater competition across the Northeast.
2. Got it. Thanks for the color. And maybe as a follow-up, I know that things are pretty uncertain with the UK right now, but can you just help us understand 2. Like what are the next steps there?
What do we track? Kind of do you guys need a plan B? What are you hearing in terms of dropping travel restrictions
to the UK? Thanks.
2. Thanks, Ravi. I'm the London guy, so I'll take that. Lucky you. Yes, yes, no.
Look, I think You know the history, right? I mean, we've all been very frustrated that the corridor hasn't opened. I mean, there was no reason for opening it. It's not data driven because there's many 20. Countries where there are lower vaccination rates that are open.
So we'll move on. We'll continue to sort of work that issue. 2. We are going to fly we do expect to successfully complete our ETOPS certification. We will continue with our first flight in August 11.
We will fly our schedule every 2. Okay, per plan initially. There is a lot of sort of training events that go with this type of flying that we need to Get through. So we will do that. And then as I sort of made in my remarks, it was a little bit tucked away, and I probably bushed 1 or 2 of the words.
But the plan is, we're looking at September. We'll day of week September just to sort of bring down Some of the flying, and then we'll keep it we'll continue to review it on a month by month basis. There is news today that The U. K. Will open the U.
S. For U. S. Vaccinated travelers. I don't know if that's going to happen or not.
We've been here so many times With potential good news that's then been dashed, but we'll continue to stay flexible and we'll sort of match the capacity to the demand.
20. Very good. Thank you.
And your next question comes from Helane Becker with Cowen.
20. Thanks very much, operator. Hi, everybody, and thank you very much for the time. Congratulations to all the new participants on the call. 2.
So two questions. One is congestion at these Northeast airports. And I'm kind of wondering about the decision to fly LaGuardia Boston. As you think about 20. Twelve flights a day in that market, is that really like the best thing to do with those aircraft?
And can you make better use of those 12 slots in routes that may have more business utility.
20. Hey, Helane. Thanks for the question. Our focus is always about putting our aircraft in the most margin accretive routes. At this point in time, given the partnership with American Airlines, we believe that's The strongest use of those aircraft moving forward.
Obviously, congested airport as you noted, but it's 2. Suggested for a reason, that's where the people are and that's where they want to fly and frankly, we view it as a smart investment. Obviously, some of this is dependent on the return of fall business travel. So we're watching that very closely, but we've seen nothing in our bookings to suggest that business travel won't be coming back in the fall. But again, we'll remain nimble as we need to.
20.
Got you. That's very helpful. Thank you. And then one thing nobody talked about this time was the investment in Joby. And I guess they're getting ready to come 20.
So I don't know how you guys are thinking about that, what you're doing with that or you're just going to keep that investment? Is
2. Is there a
point in time where you're going to monetize it? I don't know any color you might want to give on that is
Yes. Maybe I'll just give a little Tom and Ursula, feel free to add. We're very excited about that partnership. I'm not going to get into the details of their current 2 potential public offering, but I will say it's an important part of our strategy moving forward, particularly around 2. EVOL, electric takeoff and landing.
I can't pronounce it directly. And we're very excited about what that brings. I think you've seen a number of 2. I'm very much pleased that our partnership is much further advanced than 2. Where those announcements are and excited about what they are going to bring to the future of that type of travel.
That's really great. Thanks very much, Joanna.
20. And your next question comes from Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.
20. Hey, good morning everyone and congrats, Ersel and Joe, on your new positions. Quick one here to either Dave or 20. Scott, when you look at your yields, I guess, on a year over 2 year basis, it looks like you're probably down maybe 10%, 11%, twelve percent, but then your stage length is up. And I don't know what it is up on a year over 2 year basis.
So on a stage length adjusted basis, 20. Are yields roughly flattish? Is that the right math?
Hi, Mike. Good morning. Thanks for the question. We're really pleased with how both fares and yields are 20. It really depends throughout the network.
Since we've pivoted to a much more leisure centric network over the past few quarters and for the summer, We're really pleased with where the yields are even if they are slightly below historical 2019 levels. To go one level deeper in some regions like especially TransCon in the East, 2. We are seeing yields to be higher. In other parts of the network, they're lower, but overall, really pleased with the total result.
20. Great. Thanks, Dave. And then just my second question, just, Ursula, in the non op area, there's a $39,000,000 I guess, some of it's interest income and then there's some sort of charge there. I'm not sure if that was called out in specials or if in the release.
What is that?
Thanks Mike for the question. So there 2. It was a level of investment that we needed to put forth in order to pay down the $722,000,000 term loan.
20.
Your next question comes from Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.
Hey, good morning, everybody.
Hi, Jamie. Good morning.
Probably for you, just Couple of London related technical questions. I know you've been operating some proving runs. I'm curious if that's mostly related Crew familiarization or if there are any aircraft performance issues you could share with us right now?
2. No. So we had 3 round trip approving runs. That is part of the FAA certification process. 2.
And you should even assume the diversion to Keflavik, which you probably saw, was also part of that whole process. They went very well, And we're very confident our ability to receive the top seats for authorization.
Okay. And a related 2. Follow-up, the configuration, I believe it's 138 seats, correct me if I'm wrong. Is that dictated by 20. The aircraft itself given the range or is that the profit maximizing configuration based on 20.
JetBlue's analysis. I'm just curious why 138 is the right configuration.
What would you have done differently, Jamie? Just queue
20. It's been too long for me to be able to answer that question.
Yes. No. Yes, look, clearly, 20. We spent a lot of time with that on that. As you know, when we launched NIM on TransCon, we had a front cabin of 16.
We spent a lot of time thinking through the optimization. We ended up where we are with 24 at 2. The front and then the sort of the back takes care of itself, and we sort of look at the mix of even more and core. 2. I would also say because it's a neo airplane, the configuration does have a high level of flexibility if we want to Change in the future compared to the sort of traditional Sierra plane.
Okay. That will do it for me. Thank you.
Thanks, Jamie.
Appreciate it, Robin. You bet.
Concludes our Q2 2021 conference call. Thanks for joining us. Have a great day.
And again, that will conclude today's conference.
20.