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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 2, 2022

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2022 Kadant Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Michael McKenney, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Michael McKenney
EVP and CFO, Kadant

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Kadant's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With me on the call today is Jeff Powell, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Before we begin, let me read our safe harbor statement. Various remarks that we may make today about Kadant's future plans and expectations, financial and operating results, and prospects are forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause our actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those outlined at the beginning of our slide presentation and those discussed under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 1st January , 2022, and subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, any forward-looking statements we make during this webcast represent our views and estimates only as of today. While we may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our views or estimates change. During this webcast, we will refer to some non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.

A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is contained in our third quarter earnings press release and the slides presented on the webcast and discussed in the conference call, which are available on the Investor section of our website at www.kadant.com. Finally, I wanted to note that when we refer to GAAP earnings per share or EPS and adjusted EPS on this call, we are referring to each of these measures as calculated on a diluted basis. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff Powell, who will give you an update on Kadant's business and future prospects. Following Jeff's remarks, I'll give an overview of our financial results for the quarter, and we will then have a Q&A session. Jeff?

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Thanks, Mike. Hello, everyone.

Thank you for joining us this morning to review our third quarter results and discuss our outlook for the remainder of the year. I'll begin by reviewing our operational highlights for the third quarter. I'm pleased to report we had a solid quarter with strong revenue performance and excellent execution across all our operating segments. This led to record adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter. We had strong demand for aftermarket parts while new capital order activity moderated as expected from the record-setting pace in the first half of the year. We continued to successfully navigate through an increasingly complex market conditions fueled by inflationary pressures, the strength in U.S. dollar, China's zero-COVID policy, and lingering global supply chain constraints, among other factors.

As I've commented many times before, operations teams around the globe continue to do an excellent job proactively managing these challenges and executing well, and this quarter was no different. You can see on slide six our Q3 financial performance was notably higher across most key metrics compared to Q3 of last year, despite significantly affected by a currency translation. Q3 revenue was up 12% compared to the third quarter of 2021 to $225 million and benefited from record capital shipments. Excluding acquisitions and unfavorable impact of FX, revenue was up 19% compared to the same period last year. Solid execution contributed to our record adjusted EBITDA of $48 million and a record EBITDA margin of 21.3%. All our operating segments delivered excellent adjusted EBITDA margin performance despite continuing inflationary pressures and ongoing supply chain constraints.

As anticipated, bookings softened from the record-setting pace in the first half of the year as capital activity slowed while demand for aftermarket parts increased compared to the prior period. I'll review the performance of operating segments next, beginning with our Flow Control segment. Flow Control segment achieved solid growth in both revenue and bookings activity, with revenue at record $87 million in the third quarter, up 14% compared to Q3 of last year. Bookings were $85 million, up 11% compared to last year. Organic bookings, which excludes acquisitions and FX, were up 19% compared to the same period last year. Strong performance in our fluid handling pipeline in North America led our bookings growth in Q3. Improved operating leverage led to record adjusted EBITDA and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.4%.

High energy prices and a focus on decarbonization, particularly in Europe, continue to drive project activity in our Flow Control segment as our customers seek to optimize energy utilization. Our end markets remain strong despite the growing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. That said, we do expect spending to moderate in the months ahead as central banks continue to take actions designed to reduce inflation. Our Industrial Processing segment revenue increased 5% to $86 million, despite being affected by an unfavorable foreign currency translation. Excluding the impact of FX, revenue growth was 11% compared to the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA was up 6%, while our adjusted EBITDA margin was excellent at 24%.

As anticipated, demand for capital equipment slowed in Q3 in response to the major capacity additions completed over the past several years, even as demand for aftermarket parts continued at a robust pace. Our wood processing businesses, which have experienced significant demand for capital equipment during the past few years and contributing significantly to our financial results during that period, are expected to shift towards a more aftermarket-based product mix as demand for lumber and OSB softens and the focus for manufacturers shifts from capacity additions to plant optimization and operating efficiencies. In our material handling segment, we experienced healthy demand for our bulk material handling equipment and aftermarket parts. Revenue was up 23% to $52 million, with parts revenue making up 57% of total revenue in the quarter.

Bookings in this segment were down 2% compared to the same period last year at $48 million in Q3. Excluding the negative effect of currency translation, bookings were up 3%. Solid execution helped boost adjusted EBITDA by 40% and adjusted EBITDA margin by 240 basis points compared to the same period last year. As expected, demand moderation in our baling business has impacted the results in our material handling segment. That said, we are experiencing growing business activity for our bulk material handling equipment across various sectors. As we look ahead to the remainder of 2022, we are well positioned to finish the year with record results. We have a significant number of capital projects to deliver in the upcoming quarter, and our backlog remains at a near record level.

As global economic challenges continue to mount, we expect new order activity to moderate. It's in uncertain times like these that our organizational strength stands out, and I'm confident our operations teams around the world will continue to deliver outstanding results in a record year. I'd like to pass the call over to Mike now for his review of our Q3 financial performance.

Michael McKenney
EVP and CFO, Kadant

Thank you, Jeff. I'll start with some key financial metrics from our third quarter. Consolidated gross margins were 42.5% in the third quarter of 2022, compared to 41.9% in the third quarter of 2021, which included 110 basis point negative impact from the amortization of acquired profit and inventory. Parts and consumables revenue represented 63% of revenue in the third quarter of 2022, compared to 66% in the prior period. SG&A expenses were $53.2 million in the third quarter of 2022, an increase of $0.8 million compared to $52.3 million in the third quarter of 2021. There was a favorable foreign currency translation effect of $3.4 million in the quarter and a reduction in government assistance benefits of $0.3 million.

We also incurred acquisition-related costs of $0.4 million and $1.3 million in the third quarter of 2022 and 2021 respectively. The remaining increase in SG&A expense is primarily associated with increased incentive compensation and travel-related costs due to improved business conditions. As a percentage of revenue, SG&A expenses decreased to 23.7% in the third quarter of 2022, compared to 26.2% in the prior year period. Our effective tax rate was 26% in the third quarter of 2022, lower than we anticipated, due in part to tax benefits from the reversal of tax reserves associated with uncertain tax positions.

Our GAAP diluted EPS was $2.35 in the third quarter, up 34% compared to $1.75 in the third quarter of 2021, and our adjusted diluted EPS increased 21% to a record $2.38. Our third quarter 2022 adjusted diluted EPS exceeded the high end of our guidance range by $0.29 , due primarily to higher revenue in our wood processing and Doctoring, Cleaning & Filtration product lines and a lower effective tax rate. Adjusted EBITDA increased 17% to a record $47.8 million, compared to $40.9 million in the third quarter of 2021, due to strong performance in our Flow Control segment, which had record revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of revenue was a record 21.3% in the third quarter of 2022, compared to 20.5% in the prior period. Operating cash flow decreased 34% to $24.9 million in the third quarter of 2022, compared to $37.9 million in the third quarter of 2021. Free cash flow decreased 46% to $18.5 million in the third quarter of 2022 compared to $34.6 million in the third quarter of 2021. The decreases in operating cash flow and free cash flow were principally due to an increase in working capital in the third quarter of 2022 of $13.6 million, compared to a decrease in working capital in the third quarter of 2021 of $6.3 million. A change of $19.9 million.

We had several notable non-operating uses of cash in the third quarter of 2022. We paid down debt by $11.5 million in the quarter and paid $6.4 million for capital expenditures, which included $2.2 million for our facility project in China. We also paid a $3 million dividend on our common stock and $2.7 million to buy a facility in Germany at the end of its lease. Let me turn next to our EPS results for the quarter. In the third quarter of 2022, our GAAP diluted EPS was $2.35, and after adding back $0.02 of acquisition costs and $0.01 of restructuring costs, our adjusted diluted EPS was $2.38.

In the third quarter of 2021, our GAAP diluted EPS was $1.75, and after adding back acquisition-related costs of $0.22 , our adjusted diluted EPS was $1.97. As shown in the chart, the increase of $0.41, in adjusted diluted EPS in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2021 consists of the following. $0.68, Due to higher revenue, partially offset by $0.13 due to higher operating expenses, $0.8 due to lower gross margins, $0. 3 from a higher tax rate, $0.2 due to a decrease in amounts received from government assistance programs, and $0.1 from higher net interest expense.

Collectively, included in all the categories I just mentioned, was an unfavorable foreign currency translation effect of $0.15 in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of last year due to the strengthening of the US dollar. Looking at our liquidity metrics on slide 15. Our cash conversion days, which we calculate by taking days in receivables plus days in inventory and subtracting days in accounts payable, increased to 130 at the end of the third quarter of 2022 compared to 113 at the end of the third quarter of 2021. This increase was primarily driven by a higher number of days in inventory. Working capital as a percentage of revenue was 12.8% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to 13.5% in the third quarter of 2021.

Our net debt, that is debt less cash, decreased $16 million sequentially to $135 million at the end of the third quarter of 2022. Our leverage ratio, calculated in accordance with our credit agreement, was 0.94 at the end of the third quarter of 2022 compared to 1.05 at the end of the second quarter of 2022. Our net interest expense increased $0.2 million to $1.5 million in the third quarter of 2022 compared to $1.3 million in the third quarter of 2021. At the end of the third quarter of 2022, we had $205 million of borrowing capacity available under our revolving credit facility, which matures in December of 2023. Now turning to our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022.

We are narrowing our revenue guidance for 2022 to $890 million-$896 million, revised from $890 million-$905 million due to approximately $10 million in capital shipments moving into the first half of 2023 as a result of customer-requested delivery changes and supply chain delays. In addition, we are narrowing our adjusted EPS guidance to $8.80-$8.97 from $8.80-$9. For the fourth quarter, we now anticipate revenue of $217 million-$223 million and adjusted EPS of $1.90-$2.07. I wanna outline some of the potential risks impacting our guidance.

In the last month of the third quarter, our largest subsidiary in China was impacted by China's zero-COVID policy, requiring them to shut down for a short period of time and then gradually reopen it again to full capacity. This only had a modest impact on the quarter as the subsidiary was able to increase capacity once reopened. However, there continues to be a potential risk for further government-mandated shutdowns in this region. In addition, other risks that could impact our guidance include supply chain challenges, strengthening of the U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions, and inflation. We continue to anticipate gross margins for the full year of 2022 will be 42.5%-43%. Gross margins in the fourth quarter will be approximately 70 basis points-80 basis points lower than the third quarter as a result of the mix shifting towards more capital.

As a percentage of revenue, we continue to anticipate SG&A will be approximately 24.5%-25% for the year. We expect our tax rate for the fourth quarter will be approximately 28%. We hope these guidance comments are helpful. That concludes my review of the financials, and I will now turn the call back over to the operator for our Q&A session. Michelle?

Operator

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your phone. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson & Co. Your line is now open.

Kurt Yinger
SVP and Senior Research Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Great. Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Morning, Kurt.

Kurt Yinger
SVP and Senior Research Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Morning. By my math, you know, capital bookings were down, you know, maybe 35%-40% versus Q2. You touched on it, right? Q2 was a very good quarter, so not an easy comp. When you talk to your customers, do you get the sense that's just, you know, a kind of a knee-jerk reaction to some of the changes we've seen in the macro and just pushing some projects out? Do you think it's more reflective of kind of a new baseline on the capital side, whether that's, you know, a digestion phase coming in or really a sustained pullback with the current environment?

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Yeah, I think it's a little bit of all the above, depending on the market and you know the geographic region. Certainly, we have certain markets that have just been on an amazing you know kind of investment program over the last couple of years, and they need to you know take delivery of that equipment and get it installed, up and operating. We still have businesses that you know aren't gonna deliver product till 2024, and so that are fully booked for the year. Customers don't like placing orders for things that are gonna be delivered two years from now, you know, not knowing what the economic conditions might be then.

A little bit, we've been talking about this all year, that we expected things to moderate in the back half of the year because they were just so strong, you know, really for the prior four quarters, they were very strong. You know, some of the businesses you saw on the Flow Control side, you know, their bookings were up substantially. You know, that's being driven in part by energy prices, 'cause an awful lot of those projects are justified by saving energy. It really varies quite a bit around the world. China, of course, as everybody knows, has been impacted by their zero-COVID policy. You know, there's some hope that maybe around the March timeframe, they're going to start to. They're rethinking that now.

They may change that program and maybe open things back up a little bit there. I think it's a little bit of all the above, really. I don't think it's a new baseline globally, going forward. It's gonna very much be a function of the market and the geographic region. You know, the Feds are clearly trying to talk down the economy right now, and I think people are kind of some people are taking a wait and see attitude to just what that means.

Kurt Yinger
SVP and Senior Research Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Right. Okay, that makes sense. Just going off one of the comments you made on some of your subsidiaries being, you know, booked out more than a year, do you feel like the bookings you've seen over the last couple quarters on the capital side give you better visibility in the past, you know, in terms of how quickly those might turn over? Do you think 2023 is still very much kinda TBD, depending on bookings activity over the next, call it, two to three quarters?

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Yeah, I mean, we haven't really started focusing hard on 2023. You know, right now we're principally focused on finishing the year, and we have an awful lot of projects that we have to get completed and shipped. That's a big challenge for everybody. You know, obviously, during the call for the fourth quarter, we'll be giving you know our outlook and guidance for next year. I don't think right now that we have a formed opinion on exactly what next year is gonna look like. Other than we know we have strong backlog going into the year, so we know we're gonna be quite busy you know fulfilling the existing orders.

Kurt Yinger
SVP and Senior Research Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Okay. All right. That's fair. Well, appreciate the details and good luck here in Q4, guys.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Thanks, Kurt.

Operator

Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from William Hyler with WDH Capital. Your line is now open.

William Hyler
Investment Manager, WDH Capital

Yeah. Hi, guys. Appreciate the call. You know,

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Morning, Bill.

William Hyler
Investment Manager, WDH Capital

Yeah. Hi. Question, you know, Kadant has been a big beneficiary of the large number of recycled container board conversions announced the past five years or so. It's been a powerful trend. You know, I would assume we might start seeing a slowdown in this going forward. You know, remind us what divisions were the biggest beneficiaries of the trend, and what end markets do you see as maybe best positioned to offset this if we do start seeing a slowdown of new capital in container board conversions?

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

You know, we tend to look at the, on our paper side, at the market, you know, as the developed countries and the developing countries. As you know, the developed countries are growing at a slower rate, less greenfields, less new plants and more conversions, where in the developing world, you know, we're still seeing most of the projects are still new capacity, new greenfields. You're right. Certainly in North America, there's been a fair number of conversions over the last many years. I think the market's kind of taking right now a wait and see attitude to what the dynamics look like when those all come online, and many of them will be coming online here over the next six months or so.

You know, we're seeing strong activity in interesting markets. I would say India, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and that's kind of where you're seeing new projects, you know, new development. We expect that to continue, so that will offset the maybe a little bit of a slowdown in moderation in the developed world here over the next year or so. If you think of markets outside of the developing world, you know, I think, you know, China is still a major market. They've really got to sort, I think, through this, their COVID policy, because that's really slowed down their industrial production and has been fairly disruptive. I don't think that's sustainable over a long period of time.

you know, we're expecting sometime in 2023, they sort through that, get back to a more normal growth rate and investment cycle. That's what I would expect is, you know, kind of, Middle East, Eastern Europe and Asia, India. India is the biggest market, fastest-growing market for us, although it's a small base right now. As you might recall, we made an acquisition there last year to put more boots on the ground there. You know, that's a market that we think is gonna continue to show strength. Really, I think, it's the China market that really needs to sort itself out here.

William Hyler
Investment Manager, WDH Capital

You think-

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

And, uh-

William Hyler
Investment Manager, WDH Capital

You think that the conversions or greenfield will continue to be a positive factor for a number of years to come?

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Well, right now, the latest estimates I've seen, Bill, say that they expect the packaging paper business to grow at about 4.8% a year for the next 10 years. That's actually a little faster than global GDP's forecasted to grow. As you know, that's principally been driven by a couple of things. One, of course, is e-retail, you know, around the world that continues to grow, you know, at a faster pace than overall retail. Then the second is this migration to more sustainable, you know, kind of environmentally friendly, low carbon footprint materials. You know, the migration away from plastics and other things, particularly in the food side of it.

Those two drivers, I think, are driving, you know, kind of the forecast that show it growing faster than GDP over the next 10 years.

William Hyler
Investment Manager, WDH Capital

All right. Flow Control is probably the biggest beneficiary of that trend from a revenue standpoint?

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

No. It would be the Industrial Processing segment, Bill.

William Hyler
Investment Manager, WDH Capital

Oh, okay.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

That's where our stock preparation. Now, Flow Control does benefit, but the biggest beneficiary is in Industrial Processing via our stock preparation product line.

William Hyler
Investment Manager, WDH Capital

I appreciate that. Just real quick, I know you used to break down your China revenues, and you don't do that anymore, but can you just give us a little color on how revenues in Asia may have shifted and changed over the last three, four years? Because I know Vietnam got a little bigger and rest of Asia. Are you a little less reliant on China than you used to be as a percentage of total Asian revenues, or is it still pretty much the major source?

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

It's still really pretty much the major source, Bill.

William Hyler
Investment Manager, WDH Capital

Okay. All right. Okay. Appreciate it.

Operator

Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from John Franzreb with Sidoti. Your line is now open.

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

Good morning, guys, and thanks for taking the questions.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Morning, John.

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

In your prepared remarks, you mentioned capital projects shifting out of the fourth quarter and into the first half of 2023. What's the magnitude of the size of those projects in total, and which segments are they most impacting?

Michael McKenney
EVP and CFO, Kadant

Well, overall, aggregated to approximately $10 million.

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

Mm-hmm.

Michael McKenney
EVP and CFO, Kadant

In projects that were shifted out. I would say it's really predominantly in the Industrial Processing segment in both. We had movement both in some in the stock prep product line and the Wood Processing product line. Well, I'd say most in the Wood Processing product line, where customers are a little behind on their projects and just requested delivery of equipment either in the first or second quarter of 2023.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Yeah. When, John, these projects shift, they go into a mill that's got a lot of civil work that has to be done. Of course.

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

Mm-hmm.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

You know, everybody is feeling the supply chain constraints and labor shortages and everything else. If they're slower in getting all the civil work done, they're just not ready to accept and install the equipment. That's really kind of what you know. Of course, being the last quarter of the year, if they delay delivery by two weeks at the end of the year, that shifts it into next year. That's really, I think, what we're experiencing.

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

Okay. You'd expect most of this to be delivered in the first quarter, or am I putting words in your mouth?

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Well, I would say first half. There'll be a-

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

Okay.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

There'll be a good chunk in the first quarter, but it's all been shifted to the first half of 2023.

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

All right. Fair enough. I just want your thoughts on commodity prices. You know, metal prices have been coming down since peaking in the spring, but we're not seeing a lot of real traction from that in a lot of companies' reported results yet. Have you been any kind of a beneficiary of lower metal prices? Do you expect to be any time in the near future? What are your thoughts about, you know, input costs?

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Yeah. You're right. I mean, our biggest single purchase cost is stainless steel, and it had dropped nicely, I'd say through August. In September and October, it's kinda flattened out. Actually, in October, it actually increased a little bit. If we look at the.

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

Okay.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

If you look at the future prices through, say, mid-next year, they've got it, you know, declining a little bit more but not dropping precipitously. I would say if you look at our gross margins, they've been very steady and exactly what we expected. I would say we've not benefited from it, and we've not been hurt by it. We've kinda stayed, you know, we stayed on top of it. Our guys around the world have stayed on top of it and done a good job. We've neither really benefited nor been hurt by it. We certainly welcome, you know, the prices moderating. If these central banks are successful in slowing the economies down, we would expect prices to continue to drop later next year.

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

Okay. Fair enough. I guess one quick question. I guess you talked about the shift maybe from capital equipment and work to maybe more of a, you know, maintaining the facility, higher aftermarket sales and industrial processing. How long would that process, you know, play out? Is that like a one to two quarter set or is it a one to two year set?

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

You know, I don't know. You know, to be honest with you, we don't know. I know that if you look at, for instance, on the housing side, you know, if you look at kinda the consensus for next year, they're predicting somewhere around, I think, 1.35 million starts a month, which is clearly down from-

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

Mm-hmm.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

From certainly 2021 and 2022. It's really, I think, gonna be a function of what the Feds do with the interest rates. 'Cause the demand, the underlying demand for housing in particular is still there very strong. Millennials are still, you know, in the prime house buying years. It's just an issue with interest rates going up and, you know, some availability down. I don't know. I mean, the underlying fundamentals, you know, over the next many years are very strong. It's just a question of what interest rates do.

John Franzreb
Senior Equity Analyst, Sidoti

Okay. All right, guys, thanks for taking my questions. I appreciate it.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Bye.

Operator

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. At this time, there are no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference back to Jeff Powell for closing remarks.

Jeff Powell
President and CEO, Kadant

Thank you, Michelle. Before wrapping up today, I just wanted to leave you with a few takeaways. 2022 is shaping up to be the best year in our history across a wide range of metrics. We made solid progress this year on our efforts to accelerate revenue growth and boost our profitability despite the challenging macroeconomic environment. Lastly, as we work through our backlog, we expect to deliver excellent cash flows. We wanna thank you for joining the call today and stay safe.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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