Good day. My name is Priscilla, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA Corporation December Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. All participant lines have been placed in a listen only mode to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.
Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Kevin Kessel, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and welcome to KLA's fiscal Q2 2021 quarterly earnings call to discuss the results and the outlook for the March quarter. With me today is Rick Wallace, our Chief Executive Officer and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, we will discuss quarterly results for the period ended December 31, 2020, that we released today after the market closed in the form of a press release, Shareholder Letter and Slide Deck. All are available on the KLA IR section of our website. Today's discussion is presented on a non GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified.
A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP results is in today's earnings material posted on our website. Today's call also represents the end of the calendar year. We will make references to both 2020 and 2021. Please note all references are for the calendar year. Our IR website also contains future virtual investor conferences as well as presentations, corporate governance information and links to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report and quarterly reports on Forms 10 ks and 10 Q.
Our comments today are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factor disclosure in our SEC filings. Any forward looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are subject to those risks, and KLA cannot guarantee those forward looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward looking statements. As many of you now know, we changed the format of our earnings 2 quarters ago to include pre publishing a detailed shareholder letter that provides updates on our business performance. The pre publishing allows this call to be efficient by providing more streamlined comments while also freeing up more time for your questions and answers.
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Rick Wallace.
Thanks, Kevin, and thank you for joining us today and for your interest in KLA. As we reflect on the accomplishments of 2020, It's important for me to first appreciate and acknowledge the global KLA team. Your perseverance, drive to be better and determination enabled KLA to rise to the challenge and deliver for our customers. 2020 was like no other year we have seen. While our teams have not been physically together for the most part, our company continues to demonstrate the great KLA culture of collaboration and innovation and is emerging stronger than ever.
In the process, we delivered exceptionally strong financial results in the December quarter, closing a strong year for the company. In our shareholder letter published today, we articulate how KLA's record results are driven by success on multiple fronts, including the resourcefulness of our global workforce, the resiliency of our business model and our commitment to returning value to our shareholders. As most of you have already seen from our results, 2020 was an impressive year for KLA on multiple fronts. We delivered strong growth, profitability and free cash flow while continuously adjusting to the changing work environments driven by COVID. Through it all, we remain focused on meeting customer demand and delivering strong return to shareholders in the rapidly growing semiconductor market.
Bren will have much more to highlight on the financials for both the quarter and the year, but I'd like to hit on a few of the annual milestones. For the year, KLA revenue grew 15% to $6,100,000,000 marking the 5th consecutive year of growth. We also delivered notable profitability growth with non GAAP operating profit and non GAAP earnings per share increasing 28% 32%, respectively, year over year. Our free cash flow grew 44 percent to $1,800,000,000 and we returned $1,200,000,000 to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. In the December quarter, we saw diversified strength across each of our segments.
Semiconductor Process Control revenue was once again above plan. The Electronics, Packaging and Components Group met its target and our services Business continued and delivered another quarter of growth and strong operating leverage. We ended the year with strong backlog, setting the stage for double digit growth in 2021 as we continue to execute at a high level. We're operating from a position of strength in our marketplace and given the accelerated growth of our served markets, we remain solidly on track to meet and likely exceed our 2023 financial targets. All this reflects the dedication of our global teams and the enabling role KLA plays in our customers' technology roadmaps and enhancing their return on capital investment.
Moving to today's demand environment, which continues to demonstrate accelerated adoption of several semiconductor and electronics industry growth drivers that we've been highlighting for the past few years. Technology continues to transform how we live and work and the data driven economy is fundamentally changing how businesses operate and deliver value. This digital transformation is enabling secular demand drivers such as high performance computing, artificial intelligence and rapid growth in new automotive electronics and 5 gs communications markets. Each of these secular trends are driving investment and innovation in advanced memory and logic semiconductor devices, as well as new and increasingly more complex advanced packaging and PCB technologies. With our market leadership and process control and growth and expansion to new markets like specialty semiconductor process equipment, PCB and finished die inspection in our EPC group, KLA is essential to enabling our increasingly digital world.
As much as things have changed over the past year, one thing that's remained a constant is our KLA operating model. KLA operating model is the enduring framework that we rely on to guide the execution of our long term strategic objectives. We deployed the KLA operating model to align the company on a consistent strategy, tie accountability to results, drive product development execution, respond to changing market conditions and facilitate continuous improvement, while ensuring the company operates with strong fiscal discipline as we pursue our long term performance and profitability objectives. Let's turn now to 5 top highlights and our results for the quarter and for 2020. First, we saw continued strength and breadth in foundry logic demand in the quarter.
As expected, memory demand also grew as memory customers plan for growth in equipment investment in 2021 to meet improving end demand. We expect higher business levels across a broader set of customers in the March quarter with demand momentum continuing throughout 2021 across our major end markets. The strength in demand we're seeing reflects KLA's essential role in supporting our customers' drive to innovate and continue to invest in future technology nodes. 2nd, we're seeing strong momentum in the marketplace from new products, driving market growth and share opportunities in both the semiconductor process control and EPC Groups. Fueled by expanded customer investment in EUV lithography, the semiconductor process control business is driving adoption with new applications in optical inspection portfolio such as EUV PrintCheck for Gen5 and expanding our share in new markets for KLA, including the ESL10 e beam inspection platform and the nascent use of X-ray technologies for metrology applications.
3rd, our services revenue grew to $1,560,000,000 or 25% of total sales in 2020. This is driven by growth in our installed base, higher utilization rate and increasing expansion of service opportunities in the trailing edge and in the EPC group. The strong results delivered in 2020 show how the services team continues to do a fantastic job leveraging the KLA operating model to deliver at a high level. Working in close collaboration with customers and partners, the services business innovated and drove new initiatives against the unprecedented challenges of COVID. Not only did our services business receive praise from our customers, but it also grew share of wallet and we've seen our contact penetration steadily increase in 2020 from 70% to 75% plus, which fuels recurring revenue streams and generates strong operating leverage and cash flows.
4th, this was a very encouraging year for the newly established EPC Group, demonstrating success in KLA's growth strategies and highlighting how execution of the KLA operating model drives market leadership and improved operating leverage in acquired businesses. Revenue growth was strong and we believe that on a net basis, we'll exceed our $50,000,000 annual acquisition cost synergy target by at least another additional $30,000,000 With EPC, KLA is now providing a more comprehensive and broader product portfolio and addressing fast growing new markets in the electronics value chain such as RF, automotive, 5 gs wireless connectivity and display. Relative to the adoption of 5 gs, KLA has exposure to many key components in the electronics value chain as well. The EPC Group ended the year with record backlog setting the stage for double digit growth in 2021 and for incremental operating margins on that growth in line with the total company model. Finally, in keeping with our commitment to deliver strong and predictable capital returns to our shareholders.
In the December quarter, we repurchased $177,000,000 of common stock and paid $140,000,000 in dividends. Back in July, KLA's Board of Directors authorized the 11th consecutive annual dividend increase to a yearly run rate of $3.60 per share. Since inception in 2006, KLA's dividend payout has grown at a CAGR of approximately 15%. In 2020, KLA returned $1,230,000,000 to shareholders or 70% of free cash flow. Before Brent gets into the greater detail of our financial highlights, let me briefly summarize.
Despite the disruption and and unforeseen challenges that persisted throughout the year associated with COVID, KLA has benefited from the resourcefulness of its global workforce. We've adapted well and we end 2020 in a position of strength while delivering record results and set the stage for the 6th consecutive year of growth. KLA is exceptionally well positioned at the forefront of technology innovation with a comprehensive portfolio of products to meet the demanding customer requirements, which balance sensitivity and throughput. The semiconductor and electronics landscape is constantly changing, and we're seeing broadening customer interest, which is being applied to more technology innovation than ever before at Leading Edge. We believe the secular factors driving industry demand that we identified at our last Investor Day are even more relevant now than they were then, and this will help us to meet and likely exceed our 2023 financial targets.
At the same time, our strategy of driving diversified growth with strong long term operating leverage should provide consistent capital returns to our shareholders. And with that, I'll pass the call over to Bren.
Thanks, Rick, and good afternoon, everyone. KLA's December quarter and 2020 results highlight the soundness and strength of our ongoing strategy. We continue to demonstrate our ability to meet customer needs and expand our market leadership, while growing operating profits, generating record free cash flow and maintaining our long term strategy of productive capital allocation. 2020 was a year of strong growth and profitability across multiple areas of our business. All of this was accomplished while simultaneously continuing to return high levels of capital to shareholders.
Total revenue in the December quarter was $1,650,000,000 at the very top of the guided range for the quarter of $1,510,000,000 to $1,660,000,000 Non GAAP gross margin was 61.8%, slightly below the midpoint of the guided range for the quarter of 61% to 63%. Non GAAP EPS was $3.24 solidly above the midpoint of the guided range of $2.82 to $3.46 GAAP EPS was $2.94 At the guided tax rate of 13%, non GAAP EPS would have been $0.03 higher or $3.27 Total operating expenses were above the guided range of $393,000,000 including $228,000,000 of R and D expense and $165,000,000 of SG and A. Non GAAP operating income as a percent of revenue was strong at 38% and in line with expectations. The higher operating expenses in the quarter were due in part to adjustments in variable compensation programs as well as the timing of prototype material purchases product development programs. Based on revenue expectations for 2021, product development requirements, Particularly in programs supporting next generation reticle inspection capabilities and the regionalization of additional customer engagement resources, We expect operating expenses to be approximately $400,000,000 in the March quarter, and we are budgeting quarterly operating expenses roughly within the range of $400,000,000 to $405,000,000 over the near term horizon.
Given top line expectations for 2021, We expect that the business will continue to outperform its target operating model in terms of overall profitability and operating margin leverage. Other interest and expense in the December quarter was $43,000,000 and the effective tax rate was 13.8%. Though we always have some variability in our tax rate given the timing and impact of discrete items and the geographic distribution of revenue and profit, We believe it is prudent to adjust our long term tax planning rate up slightly to 13.5% going forward. Of course, we are monitoring the corporate Tax discussions in the United States and will provide updates on how those will affect or would affect KLA as appropriate in the future. Non GAAP net income was $504,000,000 GAAP net income was $457,000,000 cash flow from operations was 5 $61,000,000 and free cash flow was a record at $502,000,000 This resulted in a free cash flow conversion of nearly 100% and a very healthy free cash flow margin of just over 30%.
Our segment revenue was strong in the quarter, driven by growth in our semiconductor process control business. The EPC Group delivered results in line with our model heading into the quarter. Revenue for the Semiconductor Process Control segment, including its associated service business, was $1,380,000,000 a sequential quarterly increase of 9% and up 15% for 2020. Approximate customer segment mix is as follows. Foundry was strong as expected at 49%, Logic was 10% and memory grew to 41% from 32% in the December quarter.
Within memory, the business was roughly 60% NAND and 40% DRAM. Going forward, We will be combining the foundry and logic segments into one category to remove some of the noise as to whether a customer is in one category or another given the various markets they serve and to better align with industry reporting practices. Revenue for the Specialty Semiconductor Process segment in December was $91,000,000 up 2% sequentially and up 24% in 2020. Demand in this segment was driven by growth in RF, MEMS and advanced packaging. PCB display and component inspection revenue was $179,000,000 down 1% sequentially, but up 12% for 2020 as strength in PCB and component inspection offset a weaker business environment in the display business.
In terms of balance sheet highlights, KLA ended the quarter with $2,300,000,000 in total cash, total debt of $3,460,000,000 and a flexible and attractive bond maturity profile supported by investment grade ratings from all three agencies. From a cash flow and capital returns effective during the December quarter, we repurchased 177,000,000 of common stock and paid 140,000,000 in dividends. In 2020, KLA returned $1,200,000,000 to shareholders or 70% of free cash flow, including $547,000,000 in dividends paid and $681,000,000 in share repurchases. We believe our track record for delivering strong capital returns is a key component of the KLA investment thesis and offers predictable and compelling value creation for our shareholders. As it relates to guidance, as we begin the New Year, Our view is that the wafer fab equipment or WFE market will grow in the mid teens plus or minus a couple of percentage points in 2021 off a baseline of $59,000,000,000 to $60,000,000,000 2021 is expected to be a year of strong demand and growth across our major end markets with the strongest percentage growth coming in memory led by DRAM investment and with foundry logic delivering another year of solid growth.
Looking ahead, based on our current backlog, sales funnel visibility over the next couple of quarters and product lead times, We are encouraged by the sustainability of our current demand profile for the year. As a result, we would expect the company revenue to be roughly consistent quarter to quarter across the year. Our March quarter guidance is as follows. Total revenue is expected to be in a range of $1,740,000,000 plus or minus 75,000,000 Foundry Logic is forecasted to be about 68% of semi process control systems revenue. Memory is expected to be approximately 32%.
We forecast non GAAP gross margin to be in a range of 61.25% to 63.25%, as we expect a richer product mix, continued service leverage and higher volume lead to improved gross margins compared to the December quarter. Based on revenue and product mix Expectations for 2021, we are modeling gross margins between 61.5% 62% in 2021. Given the structural trends in our business in both cost and product positioning, my bias today is to the high end of this range. Other model assumptions include operating expense of approximately $400,000,000 interest and other expense of approximately $43,000,000 and an effective tax rate of approximately 13.5%. Finally, GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be in a range of 2.98 to $3.66 and non GAAP diluted EPS in a range of $3.23 to $3.91 The EPS guidance is based on a fully diluted share count of approximately 155,000,000 shares.
In closing, the end market dynamics driving semiconductors and investments in WFE remain compelling, solid demand across end markets and at multiple technology nodes. 2021 is setting up to be a 2nd consecutive year of double digit growth for both WFE and KLA. KLA is executing well with continued confidence that we are on track to meet and likely exceed our 2023 financial targets. The KLA operating model positions us well to outperform and also guide our strategic objectives. These objectives fuel our growth, operational excellence and differentiation across an increasingly more diverse product and service offering.
They also underpin our sustained technology leadership, deep competitive moat and strong track record of free cash flow generation and capital returns to shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin to begin the Q and A. Kevin?
Thanks, Brad. Priscilla, if you could provide the instructions for Q and A.
We'll
now take our first question We'll now take our first question from Patrick Ho with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much and belated Happy New Year and congrats to you guys. Rick, maybe first off, in terms of process control intensity, we've seen Foundry logic continue to grow as we go through these node migrations and NAND flash has obviously seen intensity rise with the increasing layer counts. As we look at DRAM and the projected pickup that you mentioned in your prepared remarks, What types of process control intensity increases are you seeing in that marketplace? Maybe even Excluding some of the EUV options that are out there, what other types of process control intensity trends are increasing in DRAM?
Sure. I think that there if you think about DRAM, what they've really been pushing on and it's very difficult as you know to do it And we do think that there is going to be some EUV that comes in, but there's no question that there's And of course that drives more process control intensity. The other thing that's pretty clear in DRAM is the overlay requirements continue to get more and more challenging. So we're seeing increased trying to understand of how to squeeze more capability out of The lithography sets that they've got. And then we do see some, as I say, EUV adoption.
So we think there'll be incrementally more focused on our more advanced optical inspection tools to be able to support that. So that's what we're seeing as a trend. It's not necessarily Obviously, it's EUV heavy as what we'd see in foundrylogic, but there is some element of EUV in there. Does that answer your question, Patrick?
Hey, Jonathan, Rick. Thank you. Brent, as a follow-up to that question, you guys, as you're seeing demand pick up and revenues grow, Your working capital metrics have actually also improved. What changes have you made, particularly given that you've added Orbotech over the last 2 years, but you see the inventory turns actually improving even as demand picks up. What are some of the dynamics
Hey, Patrick, it's a great question. And certainly adding Orbotech in and I think we've done a pretty good job of improving the Overall asset velocity in that business so far, I think there's room for us to improve it going forward. But on the KLA side, one of the areas where you could argue that We do something in our business to support and I think we get paid for in terms of our profitability, but to support our model, both in in terms of the component differentiation we have that drives our differentiation of our products, but also that enables our service business. So We've always tended to carry a lot of inventory because we're supporting these tools that last a long time in the field. And we also have very exclusive relationships in a lot of our supplier relationships that help us, as I said, protect differentiation.
So as a result of all that, it does drive higher inventory commitments and we carry that risk if you will, although we never get stuck with extra systems and given the strength of the service business, we So we think it's a good sacrifice to make. We think we get paid for it in terms of the profitability and structure of our business. And the volume we've seen has allowed us to improve it a little bit. This is not a turns business for the most part. So I think it's probably an upper limit to it.
But we have we
We'll take our next question from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thanks for taking the question. I want to go back to your comment about revenue should be relatively consistent quarter to quarter in 2021. Is that a process control tool comment as well? I guess what I'm trying to understand is what you're seeing relative to maybe peers talking about WFE being a little bit more first half weighted?
Yes, Joe. So it's a good question. So what we were trying to do, first of all, it's really for both groups of our business. If you look at the EPC Group and as well as the process control equipment part of the business. I was really trying to do a few things.
First, obviously, we're guiding March We've got a nice sequential increase to the March quarter. We wanted to provide our view of WFE growth for 2021 and expectations for KLA and the third thing was to provide just some context on the demand profile as we move through the year. And as I said in the prepared remarks, it looks relatively Now I'm not guiding the June quarter, I'm not guiding September, I'm not guiding December, but what I wanted to do is provide a little bit more context. Now We do have tools that cost from $10,000,000 to $20,000,000 sometimes even more than that. So there is the usual variability that you have related to the timing of a shipment, the customer acceptance, the consignment buyout and so on.
But when we look across our business, it looks relatively system from a demand profile point of view. And I think starting with the backlog we have, the visibility we have in the funnel and then just the general Lead time dynamics of our products, it gives me some comfort with that statement.
Okay. That's helpful. And then you talked about the investments you're making on the product development side and clearly you guys are strongly forming your long term profitability targets. So I was curious, how do you think about opportunities to maybe even spend a
little bit more and accelerate and some of
the product development projects you've got going on.
Sounds like you've been talking to some of our guys inside that Sometimes Rick and I are the only 2 people in the company, I think we ought to spend less. But anyway, to answer your question, look, we have a rigorous process where we look at portfolio of the business and look at how we get returns on that portfolio. So we've ramped up our investments in R and D and product development Over the last few years, we think that there are opportunities. One of the biggest drivers that's driving the uptick that I articulated here as we look at 2021 His investment in multiple programs supporting reticle inspection qualification and so on. So I think that that's been an area of focus for us, but we feel pretty comfortable with our process around R and D and the timing of our roadmap related to our customer requirements and it's worked pretty well for KLA.
I think what's driving More of our model upside is more of a gross margin dynamic than a cost dynamic. And so I think the gross margin is reflective of the differentiation that we have with our products in the field and I think the value we're adding to our customers. So hopefully that answers your question.
Perfect. Thank you.
We'll take our next question from C. J. Muse with Evercore. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes. Thank you for taking the question. I guess, two questions, if I could put them together. The first one would be around EUV shortages at ASML. Is that impacting Gen 5 optical demand And then I guess secondly, I'm a little bit surprised that you're guiding Orbotech Businesses flat half on half.
Typically, there's seasonal uplift into the back half. I'm curious, if that's a concern about Lick, whether seasonality has changed or there's something that we Thank you.
Yes, C. J, nicely done. Those are not related at all, Those two questions, as you know, but I will take them. The first one, no, we don't see any slowdown in the EUV impact The delays that were outlined by ASML in terms of the demand for Gen 5. If anything, it's kind of gone the other way.
What's happened in the last few months is I think the realization that some of the yield challenges associated with the EUV are best addressed by having more Gen 5 capacity. And so we're actually maxed out and trying to ramp that in order to support it. So we have very strong Gen 5. We don't see any delay in that. And we have a lot of conversations with customers about our ability to support that.
In terms of Orbotech, in terms of that, it's a complicated business overall to aggregate. And so we don't really see anything, any signs of concern. We do see continued growth in that business. We feel good about where we set out our plans for 2023 in terms of the original model that we outlaid at Investor Day, and we're on track to meet or exceed those. So we feel good about it.
We'll have to see. This is a little bit newer for us to understand the dynamics of the Orbotech business, but we feel good about the signs that we're seeing. And as we said, we ended with strong backlog coming out of 2020. So We feel really good about this year.
So, C. J, the only thing I'll add
to that is we weren't guiding it right. This still has the same variability you see quarter to quarter at a different obviously order of magnitude than our semiconductor process control equipment business. But if you look at what's driving the business overall between 5 gs infrastructure, mobile and 5 gs handsets, some of the dynamics and then just all the overall PCB dynamics and how it's changing relative to integration and packaging and high performance computing. All of that is driving some nice growth in those businesses. So while the Display business is, I expect, a down year in 'twenty one versus 'twenty.
The other businesses are more than making up for it. So I think that overall, it looks pretty consistent more or less as we move through the year.
Great. Thank
you. We'll take our next question from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for letting me ask the question. First one is for Bren, but I'm wondering if you could just give a little bit more detail around what happened to mix in the December quarter That drove gross margins a little bit light relative to revenues being at the high end of the range. And as we look out beyond March, are there any other mix
Yes, John, it's the usual quarter to quarter variability. So it was a little bit Weaker in the December quarter and you see a bit of a bounce back into the March quarter. So we were 20 basis points below and we just guided 25 basis points over the midpoint or over that 62 level. And as I look at the next several quarters and and why I put the comments in the prepared remarks that I feel like we're operating in the 61.5% to 62% range. So it was really just a function of The products that actually revenue in the quarter is a customer acceptance timing dynamic and not any other reason.
That's helpful. And then Rick, as my follow-up, maybe I'll go back to the memory question that Patrick asked first, but ask it a little bit differently. If we're doing the math right, December quarter memory was a new record. You have to go back to kind of June of 2018 to see memory this high. And as We in the investment community always think about that space as being kind of hypercyclical.
We're willing to underwrite some of the structural drivers in logic found maybe not as much in memory. When you look at the level of memory business today, how do you kind of parse out Where we are in the CapEx cycle for memory versus some of the structural drivers you outlined in Patrick's answer.
Yes, John, I think, as you know, since we're a little more dependent on technology transition than we are to volume, Our answer is a little different because it has more to do with the migration and the yield challenges associated with Advanced Nodes. And what we see that is a pretty steady commitment toward additional capability to drive next generation and we're seeing that from multiple players. So I think like a lot of things in this industry, KLA's exposure is there's less variability in it based on that fact. And so the volume considerations associated with CapEx impact and maybe Bren can give some color on how that looks as we go out through the year.
Well, John, it was fairly weak for most of 2020, and we saw this increase in the December quarter, which had some breadth to it, and we expected to see that. So we weren't Surprised by it. And then as we look at 'twenty one, we expect to see growth overall. We articulated our view earlier about just we think The DRAM market overall probably grows at a higher percentage level than the flash market, but we would expect to See growth in the business into 2021, but it's been pretty disciplined. So seeing it bounce back in the December quarter and some sustainability here at these levels as we move through the first part, at least here of 'twenty one, it's encouraging.
Thank you.
We'll take our next question from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company. Your line is open.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I have 2 of them too. Rick, just to follow along the thought process on memory, it seems like KLA, the way it is today is relatively more exposed to NAND than DRAM. Do you think that exposure or process control intensity increases in DRAM as DRAM grows more EUV. And if so, how should we think about KLA's revenue mix?
And then I had a quick follow-up.
Yes. I think that the differences are pretty slight in terms of what the drivers are. It's actually different products that are getting impacted. So if you think about DRAM, we're more obviously scaling is more of a factor there. And so you'll see more of what we're doing in terms of Whether it's Gen 5, you don't really see that in what's going on in NAND, but you do have some of the new products.
We talked about the X-ray Technology is really more applicable for that, some of the challenges associated with metrology and even how it impacts our bare wafer business, our ServScan business because the flatness requirements and the cleanliness for wafers for NAND really get exacerbated when you think about the kind of verticality that those dimensions are going through and the stress that that puts on the semiconductor producer for them to be able to manage the yield. So they're different. I think the intensity at this point is slightly higher in the NAND than in the DRAM, but they're both kind of increasing at similar amounts.
Got it. Got it.
The only thing I would add on DRAM is with the introduction of EUV and we'll have to see how that plays out, it does drive some infrastructure. Now That's one level of investment and is that sustainable over time is I think a challenge for our teams. But as Customers start to deploy EUV, it will require EUV related infrastructure to help manage that. So that's a factor that's out there that is also maybe a change moving forward.
Fair enough, Brian. And then I had a follow-up for you on Services. In the shareholder letter, you spoke about how the services attach rate grew from 70% to over 75% through the course of last year. I'm just curious how How can it realistically get or put it another way, service is running at 25% of total sales. Can it get to over 30%?
Thank you.
Well, Chris, it will. It's 2 separate questions. It will because it's growing faster than the underlying systems business. If You look at our service model, it's a 9% to 11% growth rate, which is what we articulated at Investor Day, and I'd argue that Certainly, the increase in demand we've seen on the systems side gives us a tailwind to that growth rate moving forward. There's Clearly, customers are valuing the service offerings, particularly as you're seeing more and more demand at the trailing edge and the need for those customers to keep those tools up.
A lot of those customers, particularly around automotive, are facing increasing reliability requirements and that's driving more investment in process control and the information that comes off the tools. So those have all been good drivers for us. So I keep thinking, look, 80%, 85%, I think that's probably reasonable to think that we could aspire to get there. There's always dynamics with certain as a preferred billable model. And so we'll have to deal with that resistance to try to move to a contract structure.
At At the end of the day, contract structures allow us to optimize the cost structure underneath and we can serve to an entitlement level that drives higher through cycle profitability. So that's So I think there's opportunities, but I think there's always going to be some limit to it where customers are going to Some customers would prefer the billable structure on certain parts of their installed base.
Just to add to that,
I mean the one other factor is The tools that are being shipped today, the complexity is such that if you think about a car analogy, it's pretty hard to service your own car today. 15 years ago, it might have been different. And so you think about over time the complexity and the associated More and more of our systems end up having more and more custom designed parts throughout the system and it just becomes much more economical to rely on us. And then there's no question that a service model, a customer benefits from having a contract over the long term. They take the risk out of episodic events and they have more reliability of uptime.
So I agree with Brent. I think it goes up over time, but nothing moves particularly fast in the services world given the size of the installed base. So it takes a little time for that number to keep creeping up. But we're firmly condensed and committed to driving
Very helpful. Thanks Rick. Thanks Rick.
Thank you.
We'll take our next question from Vivek Arya with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Thanks for taking my question. I had 2 as well. First is, If I take your March quarter outlook and kind of annualize it, suggest this calendar year growth in line with WFE growth. But when I look at some of the investments that are being made in 5 nanometer and then 3 nanometer on the foundry side and then DRAM, which is more kind of logic like. I'm curious, what are the prospects of outgrowing WFE?
I guess it's the process control intensity question just asked in a different way. Like what would help you grow above or below WFE this year?
When I look at it, Vivek, I think that there's we have a little bit more memory investment this year than in 2020. And So that puts downward pressure on process control intensity. But you're right about the opportunities in foundrylogic and some of product offering that we expect to have over the course of 2021. So when I look at it and I think that we will at least perform in line with the market. I would expect that we'll probably do a little bit better.
There's some headwinds and some tailwinds as We look at 'twenty one, but overall I think that that's where process control intensity kind of plays out. And then from a share if we execute, I think there's probably some I would think KLA's share of WFE is probably flat to slightly up as we look at 2021 from where
Got it. And a follow-up is a question on cash returns to shareholders. Your profitability is very analog semi like, right, almost 37%, 38% operating margins. But free cash flow returns I do leave a lot more room for improvement. Even when I look at the buybacks that you had in December, they were somewhat lower and the average we have seen in the last 2 years.
So I'm curious, how are you looking at cash returns going forward If you're going to have such strong growth this year and the longer term trends are there, why not look at 100% free cash flow returns and looking at boosting dividends or the buyback.
Well, so you could go back to Investor Day and I think even over time, Every time we get the question, we've been very explicit about how we think about capital allocation in the company and our belief that in generally cash doesn't get valued unless It's deployed productively. And so when you look at what we're doing going forward, we expect that At a minimum, we'll be able to return 70% and investors can model that as they think about the returns profile over time. We were right around that this year, but this was a little bit of a unique year with some of the COVID dynamics at the beginning of the year. We We did build our cash balance a little bit, but you're right given the growth of the business, I would expect that we can deploy more. We do an exhaustive here to understand the liquidity of the company and how much cash we need to run it.
And we're operating at that level today. And so we have to juxtapose those alternatives against opportunities for growth in the company, and I think we've done a pretty good job with that. But generally, I think the 70% And given the uptick in the business that we're describing, I would expect our quarter to quarter share repurchasing to increase as we go forward here. Now Now on the dividend side, A, we've raised it 11 years in a row, 35% or so payout ratio target through cycle to enable us to continue to raise year in, year out and have a payout ratio that gives us the ability to do that and even raise it in difficult years. We're going to grow it in line with the growth rate and free cash flow.
And so over time, you can expect the dividend payout ratio will grow roughly in line with the growth in free cash flow. So That's our model and we do our exercise here each year and we'll continue to do it that way. I don't think anything's changed.
Thank
you. We'll take our next question from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Great. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is on China. I think China was if I math this right, the China revenue now about 20% quarter over quarter after pretty good 3rd quarter, but still up very solidly for the year by 20%. What are your Expectations for your opportunity in China this year.
So I would expect WFE in China to be flat to up. I'm looking at Our business levels and they match that. So it I would say it's very consistent with the profile of 20, maybe a little bit better. And it's different customers that are investing, but in general, that's how we see it.
Okay, great. Maybe my follow-up question is related to your target model. You printed operating margin 38% guiding up to 39 plus Well, I'll have a target model and it sounds like you're comfortable that you will continue to exceed that. But are there things that we should be aware of that may bring down operating margin as your revenue continue to grow in the next few years in terms of either cost of goods sold side of things, gross margin obviously or spring's expense aside that may try to normalize a
little bit over the next few years. Thanks.
Well, there's always quarter to quarter fluctuations, but When you look at our long term plan of growing our top line at least in the 7% to 9% range and dropping 1.5 and the KLA Corporation. J. Rice:] So, we're going to be in the range of $1,000,000,000 and that's how we're going to run the company over time. So you always have the drivers that influence margin, your gross margin, whether it's a product mix, Service has a dilutive element at the gross margin line, but we factor that into how we think about the model we put out there. So yes, We're outperforming the public model.
I think the strength and the speed of the growth that we've seen in the last couple of years has helped drive a fair amount of leverage in the business. And I think that a lot of as I said earlier and said in the prepared remarks, a lot of it's sustainable. So that's our model and we're outperforming it and expect to over the next number of quarters as I outlined.
Great. Thank you.
We'll take our next question from Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Your line is open.
Hi, guys. Thanks a lot. Brent, I'm sorry, you might have already talked about this, but I actually jumped on late. So it seems like if you're going to hold WFE share pretty flat, which I think is pretty reasonable in the 6.3% or 6.4% range. It seems like process control shipments are going to be or Revenue is going to be in the 1.05% range for March and then it's going to sort of stay in that range throughout the rest of the year.
So you're not going to see this pronounced half on half decline that maybe some others will. Is that sort of the right way to think about the semi's process piece?
So Tim, yeah, you missed it. I covered it earlier and there were some prepared remarks that I had that were about sustained or consistent demand profile over the next number of quarters. So, that isn't guidance, but that was just to give some context on how we see the year shaping up, notwithstanding the issue that we have around just general ASPs of our Tools that can cause some variability quarter to quarter. If you look at the March quarter, and again, we run the We guide one revenue number, but my expectations around the semi process control business are somewhere between 1.435 and 1.4 5, 5 including service. So somewhere in that ballpark.
Including service. Okay, got it. Thanks. Yes. And then I I had a question on NAND.
So I know you don't have a ton of visibility there, but your commentary that NAND is going to be sort of the weakest in terms of the Relative end markets on a year over year basis this year is kind of interesting. I think some others are beginning to try to say the same thing. It sounds like about flat as the growing consensus. There was a pretty big budget flush from one of the big customers in the Q4. So that was higher, but I guess my question is, is your view on NAND, is it because things have been cut, so because the procurement has been cut later on in the year as to why it's flat?
Or is it because the number is the same, it just is off of the bigger base in 2020? Thanks.
Yes, I think there's some growth in NAND. It's the lowest percentage growth rate of the 3 segments that we articulated. So I think it's probably a mid single digit type And that's obviously off of a bigger base as we look at 'twenty one.
But it's not because things are in the
Cod brand, that's what I guess.
No. I'm not so sure I understand the question, but I think it's Fairly consistent, I think, here. I think it uptick a little bit in the second half, to your point, and I think that there's some growth next year off of 2020.
Cool. Okay. Thanks, Mike.
We'll take our next question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Good afternoon. Great job on the quarterly execution and strong results. In In 2019, in semiconductor process control, you guys gained about 300 basis points of share on the systems side. Revenue wise, you are about 5 times larger than your nearest competitor. It looks like your process control systems business grew about 17% in 2020.
Do you guys think you sustained or gained overall process control market share in 2020? And in what areas do you think you drove the most share gains? And On your view of double digits percentage revenue growth in 2021, what are going to be the fastest growing segments within process control?
Carlin, I think it kind of there's kind of 2 ways to answer it. What were the end drivers and what were the products. And I say that because EUV really drove a lot of our BVP performance, but it isn't necessarily The only thing BBP is used for. So we feel good about how we finished up the year. As you said, we gained share and We feel like we held it.
We'll see what the final numbers come out. But you remember at Investor Day, we were modeling a slower growth in share than what we're actually seeing. So we feel really good about where we are in terms of the BBP adoption and had a very strong year in optical inspection in calendar 2020. As you shift to 'twenty one, we feel like we're well positioned to continue to build on the share gains or process control adoption gains that we had, again, based as much on end demand as some products that are coming to market that will continue to build that, plus continued adoption. The optical inspection strength is really remarkable and we feel good about how we're positioned there.
So I think that you're right, we gained more in 2019 than in 2020. We Our gains may be built on it a little, and I think we're positioned to continue that trajectory as we go towards our 'twenty three plan, but certainly for 'twenty one. That's the way the year is lining up. That's the way our build plans look right now.
Yes, the product families overall, all of them are showing growth. I would think that Rick Talked a lot about the broadband plasma and the strength there. Because of the memory uptick we're seeing and after a couple of years now Digestion. We're seeing more patterned inspection or un patterned inspection investment. And so that's a good indicator both to support the wafer output, but also which in memory tends to drive wafers, so that drives that business.
And then the tool monitoring that is done with unpatterned inspectors running monitor wafers and memory. And then in reticle inspection, I'd expect to see growth year over year above market kind of growth levels in that business as well.
Great. Thanks for the insight there. And on the EPC side, this spot Very good diversification to the business. Going back to the 2019 Analyst Day, the team's outlook for EPC was kind of like a 9% to 10% CAGR, 1 point for $1,500,000,000 in revenues in 2023. Based on the results that you put up in 2020, Looks like you guys grew that business about 10%, 11%, if you included the full quarter of Orbotech in your March 2019 quarter.
So good to see the team tracking to or slightly ahead of those targets. What type of growth are you guys For EPC this year, would it be more in line with that 9% to 10% CAGR that you've been targeting? Or could it be more in line with the overall top line growth of sort of mid team and what segments are going to be driving the largest growth and any segments that will lag the growth?
Sure, Harlan. Great question. We do feel good about where we're positioned. And as you know, I think we're fully integrated now and feel really good about the message we have for our customers. I mentioned in prepared remarks, we feel good about the progress we've made on the synergies.
We have seen the target that we laid out in 2023. We're on track. But to your point, and Brent mentioned it, FPD will be down in calendar 2021, which means and we think overall the rest of the business if you take out FPD probably be up closer to 15%. So, and FPD was relatively weak in 2020. So, the parts of the business that we're, I think, the most levered to in terms of Advanced packaging and a lot of the work that's going on where we have overlap with some of our existing front end customers, really a lot of good progress.
And As you know, rest day is running that. I think he's confident that we can build on our success as we go forward based on the interactions that we're having with customers. We feel good about specialty. PCB has been great, and we've been really happy with the work that's going on in the packaging inspection, the IQOS businesses. So those 3 are really hitting it and feel really good about it.
I also mentioned we're seeing the same operating margin leverage. Obviously, those are lower Businesses, but they have the same leverage in the operating model as the rest of KLA. So we
feel good about that as well.
Great. Thank you.
Thanks, Harlan. Priscilla, it looks like we're coming up on time here. I think we have time for one last question.
We'll take our final question today from Quinn Bolton with Needham and Company. Your line is open.
Hey, guys. You Somewhat addressed it in answering Harlan's question there, but I was looking at the wafer inspection business up 32%. Just wondering if you could give a little bit more detail on what's driving that strength. Is it mostly Gen 5? Is it ServScan?
And in the script, I think you also mentioned some new
It's really related, Quinn, to The optical inspection in Gen 4, Gen 5, so it's not just what we're seeing in Gen 5, but Gen 5 is certainly where we're seeing The increased application around specifically supporting EUV. And there that's we laid out That thesis at Investor Day, we hadn't really seen it at that time that we thought the print check. So when customers will print down the EUV and they'll validate that Image. That was going to be an application we believe there was a big market requirement for. That's proving to be true and that's driving a lot of the business success going forward.
The other thing that's happening, of course, as EUV is becoming more prevalent than just in general scaling matters and the company's largest customer base. And that pushes the mix toward more Gen 5 than perhaps would have been Gen 4. So we're benefiting from both of those trends,
All right. We appreciate everybody's time and interest. And I'll pass the call back over to Priscilla to
This concludes the KLA Corporation December quarter 2020 earnings call and web guest. Please disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.