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Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Mar 29, 2019

Operator

Good morning. My name is Kim, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the CarMax Fiscal 2019 fourth quarter earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Katharine Kenny, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Katharine Kenny
VP of Investor Relations, CarMax

Thanks, Kim, good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our fiscal 2019 fourth quarter earnings conference call. I'm here with Bill Nash, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Reedy, our Executive VP and CFO. Let me remind you that our statements today regarding the company's future business plans, prospects, and financial performance are forward-looking statements that we make pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current knowledge and assumptions about future events that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. In providing projections and other forward-looking statements, the company disclaims any intent or obligation to update them.

For additional information on important factors that could affect these expectations, please see the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended February 28, 2018, filed with the SEC. Thank you in advance for asking one question, as usual, getting back in the queue for more follow-ups. Bill?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Great. Thank you, Katharine. Good morning, everyone, thanks for joining us. Today, I'll start with a fourth quarter highlights. After that, I'll turn the call over to Tom, he will discuss SG&A, investments in consumer finance. I'll share an overall update on our omni-channel rollout, which has been very well received. As always, I'll open it for your questions. Starting with the fourth quarter results, I'd like to reiterate what I said in the earnings release. We are pleased with our double-digit pre-tax earnings growth, even after adjusting for the discretionary bonus we paid last year to eligible associates. We achieved this in the midst of continued investments in our business and our associates. This is a testament to the strength of our diversified business model and ongoing focus on operational efficiencies.

Used unit comps grew by 2.8% compared to a negative 8% in the prior year's fourth quarter. They were driven by strong conversion, partially offset by lower store traffic. While we were pleased to report positive comps this quarter, we believe they were affected by delays in the February tax refunds relative to last year, continued higher acquisition prices, and a robust competitive environment. Total used units grew by 5.6%. As you know, we track market share data on a calendar year basis and report it once a year in the fourth quarter. Our data indicates that our share of zero to 10-year-old vehicles in our current comp markets fell from approximately 4.5% in 2017 to 4.4% in 2018. While this is disappointing, the decrease in share occurred earlier in the year and started to reverse in the second half of the year when we saw share gains.

This year's decrease was in comparison to an almost 7% growth in comp market share in calendar year 2017, which was our largest increase in four years. Our website traffic grew in the fourth quarter by 13%. Our retail gross profit per used unit remained stable at $2,166 compared to $2,147 last year. As we've shared in the past, there are two primary factors that impact our decisions around gross profit per unit. The first is ensuring that our prices are competitive in the marketplace. As always, we will continue to monitor and test pricing elasticity.

Wholesale units grew by 3.7% compared to last year's fourth quarter. Gross profit per wholesale unit grew to $977 this quarter compared to $946 in the prior year period. Other gross profit was a strong contributor to the quarter, increasing by almost 42%, or $32 million. As we mentioned earlier this year, we secured provider cost decreases related to EPP revenues. We used a portion of these funds to improve the margins and the remainder to selectively reduce prices, which drove increased penetration. Service margin benefited from comp sales growth as we were able to leverage service overhead. Third-party finance fees benefited from the shift in our sales mix by finance channel. This explains the majority of the increase.

The remainder relates to a positive adjustment to our EPP cancellation reserve as a result of our annual model update. A discretionary bonus of approximately $4 million that we paid to our service department associates in last year's fourth quarter. Before I turn the call over to Tom, let me discuss our sales mix and store openings. As a percentage of our sales, zero to four-year-old vehicles decreased to about 72% versus 76% in the fourth quarter of last year and 77% in the third quarter. Total SUVs and trucks accounted for about 46% of our sales, up from 43% this time last year. During the fourth quarter, we opened five stores, which included three stores in new television markets, Buffalo, Montgomery, Alabama, and New Orleans. We also opened stores in our existing television markets of Orlando and Portland, Oregon.

During the first quarter of fiscal 2020, we plan to open three stores, one of which we opened earlier this week and represents our second store in the Memphis market. We will also open two stores in Texas, which are new markets, Waco and McAllen. Tom?

Tom Reedy
EVP and CFO, CarMax

Thank you, Bill. Good morning, everyone.

Dollars. Factors increasing SG&A expense in the fourth quarter included the opening of 19 stores since the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year, which represents a 10% growth in our store base, our continued investment in technology platforms and digital initiatives, and an increase of $33.9 million or $19 per unit related to share-based compensation expense. SG&A per unit was $2,380, a $17 decrease year-over-year. We are pleased to show SG&A leverage as it demonstrates that we're able to offset some of the growth in spend with efficiencies and staffing optimization. I'll remind you that within the comp and benefits line, prior year amounts included roughly $4 million of the discretionary bonus that was paid to eligible associates last year.

The timing of our advertising spend last year was weighted towards the end of the year, which accounts for the relative lack of growth in advertising dollars this fourth quarter. We continue to invest in three primary areas, our associates, our legacy systems, and our digital initiatives. For associates, this includes a variety of wage adjustments and healthcare plan enhancements. Our associates are vital to our success, and maintaining a very competitive compensation and benefits program is key to attracting and retaining the best talent. In order to execute our omni-channel vision, we must continue to upgrade our legacy operating systems. While this spending won't offer a short-term return, it is critical to our future competitive position. We will also continue to invest in digital initiatives. We are developing and implementing tools that help our associates be more efficient and effective.

In addition, we continue to introduce online enhancements to improve the customer experience. Now moving over to CapEx, we expect to spend $350 million for fiscal 2020. That is roughly $50 million above FY 2019, and this spend includes a shift in some spending originally planned for fiscal 2019, the 13 FY 2020 stores, plus land acquisition for future openings, and 3 customer experience centers. Looking out to fiscal 2021, we are in a position to open a similar number of stores as we have targeted in the last few years. However, our business model is clearly evolving, and we will continue to evaluate both the number and type of locations we need going forward. Finally, we plan to support shareholder returns by continuing to invest in our capital structure. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased 4.4 million shares for $270 million.

For the full year, we returned $903 million, buying back 13.6 million shares compared to about 9 million in FY 2018. While I may be stating the obvious, the return on this investment shows up in the difference between net income growth and EPS growth, roughly 6.5 percentage points for the fiscal year. We have over $2 billion remaining in our current stock repurchase authorizations. Now moving to CAF and our financing results. Our third-party lending partners continued their strong performance. Tier 2 executed especially well year-over-year, accounting for 19.5% of used unit sales compared with 15.4% last year. While Tier 3 represented 10.7% of sales compared to 11.7% last year, their performance as measured by sales to applications continues to be very solid. CAF penetration, net of three-day payoffs, was 42.1%, down marginally from last year's fourth quarter.

CAF's net loans originated in the quarter grew by 4.5% to $1.5 billion. The modest decline in penetration slightly offset our sales growth and the small increase in the average amount financed. CAF income increased $2.6 million to $104 million. This was a result of the growth in average managed receivables, partially offset by the continued slight compression in portfolio interest margin. Total portfolio interest margin was 5.5% of average managed receivables, compared to 5.6% in both the fourth quarter of last year and this year's third quarter. For loans originated during the quarter, the weighted average contract rate charged to customers was 8.7%, versus 7.9% a year ago and 8.5% in this year's third quarter.

Our provision for loan losses at $42 million grew in line with the portfolio, and the allowance for loan losses was 1.10% of ending managed receivables, consistent with both last year's fourth quarter and with the third quarter. Now I will turn the call back over to Bill.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Thank you, Tom. As you all know, we've been laying the groundwork and building towards the development of a new experience for the past couple of years. To launch it successfully, we took a number of steps, including forming our product organization, upgrading our technology, and leveraging these to construct new digital capabilities and online consumer experience offerings. These investments are essential to our vision for the future. Spending for FY 2020, like in FY 2019, will represent a step-up in investment. We believe we will require comps in the range of 5%-8% to leverage SG&A, similar to our thinking for FY 2019. We expect the amount of growth in this spending to slow in FY 2021 and taper after that.

We will continue to look for opportunities to reduce waste and reprioritize spend, which contributed to our ability to leverage this fourth quarter. Let me talk a little bit more about Atlanta and our omni-channel rollout. Please remember that Atlanta's one market and that we've only had a few months of experience to evaluate. With that said, we are very pleased with our performance. In conjunction with the launch of omni-channel, we introduced a number of other elements, including increased free transfers, a new website, a new advertising campaign, and pricing tests. In the fourth quarter, we achieved double-digit growth in both comp sales and appraisal buys. This increase was beyond what we would have expected to gain. We are also pleased with the high conversion on home delivery sales, although it represents a very small % of overall sales at this point.

In comparison to our stores in the Atlanta market, home delivery finance penetration is similar, while MaxCare penetration is a little lower. Keep in mind, I normally don't give market-specific details, nor do I plan to change this practice going forward, but given the interest in this new initiative, I wanted to give a little more context. We also know that we will be less efficient in some of our operations in the near term as we roll out the omni-channel experience. Some of these inefficiencies are by design, and some are simply those related to starting up a new capability. As a result, our sales in the Atlanta market are a little less profitable per unit compared with other markets at this point. We do believe that we will be able to improve on this as we continue to roll out omni-channel and as our customer experience centers mature.

We also believe this unique experience could be more efficient than our current model. We have a strong track record of operational excellence, and we are confident in our ability to optimize. Most importantly, after seeing the results so far in Atlanta, we're even more confident that this is the right direction. We believe that the omni-channel experience will be one of the key levers that helps drive comp sales and market share growth going forward. Let me talk about the next steps. This fiscal year, we expect to open 3 CECs or customer experience centers across the U.S. Each will have an average staff of 300 associates and will serve multiple states. Our experience in Atlanta suggests that we will be able to offset these additional associates with a reduction in sales consultants in omni-channel stores, which will be realized through normal attrition.

The first CEC will be in Atlanta and will open early in the second quarter as it supports the next phase of our omni rollout, which will include Florida stores. We also expect to open a second CEC site in Kansas City later in the second quarter, and we are currently working on the third site. As we previously said, we plan to bring the omni-channel experience to the majority of our customers by February 2020. As I've often talked to you about before, we are leveraging the strengths of the CarMax model that we've built over the last 25 years to deliver this new experience. Strengths that include our skilled and knowledgeable associates, our national footprint and transportation infrastructure, our inventory scale and merchandising capabilities, our continued investment in technology and digital capabilities, and our industry-leading brand.

These strengths are not only critical but essential to delivering an omni-experience, an experience that's tailored to every single customer, an experience that is unmatched and we believe will be the future of car buying. Now, we'll be happy to take your questions. Kim?

Operator

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from Sharon Zackfia from William Blair. Your line is open.

Sharon Zackfia
Analyst, William Blair

Hi, good morning.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Good morning, Sharon.

Sharon Zackfia
Analyst, William Blair

Thanks for the color on Atlanta. I guess just a multifaceted question to keep in line with Katharine's rules around Atlanta. Could you give us some color on what the comp trend was before omni-channel? It was helpful to hear about the double digits, but I don't know if Atlanta was similar to the overall company prior to that, just so we can understand the amount of improvement you saw when omni-channel rolled out. Secondly, could you give a little bit more color around that discussion about Atlanta being a little bit less profitable on a per car basis? Are you talking about just gross profit per car or all-in on a per car basis? And ultimately, do you think omni-channel is similar to your current model in terms of profitability?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Sharon, you're really pushing Katharine's one-on-one question.

Sharon Zackfia
Analyst, William Blair

Oh, no.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

All right.

Sharon Zackfia
Analyst, William Blair

Well, she's retiring soon.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Let me talk about the comps before. First of all, I'm not going to go into any real detail on the comps, but I'll give you a little color in that we have a control group obviously that we look at and we're very pleased with the lift that we saw beyond the control group. As far as the profitability, when I talk about a little less profitable, that is all in. That's looking at SG&A, that's looking at margin. Truthfully, on the SG&A pressures, as I addressed in my opening script, we feel like we can at least offset those and we feel like this model could be more efficient. As far as any type of margin pressures, those are two different, whether you roll omni out and have decided to do something different margin, those aren't dependent one on or the other.

Sharon Zackfia
Analyst, William Blair

Okay, thank you.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Sure.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian from Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Brian Nagel
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Hi, good morning.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Good morning, Brian.

Brian Nagel
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Nice quarter as always. I'll try to put mine all into one as well. With regard to Atlanta and that double-digit comp, can you talk about of all the facets, if you will, of the omni-channel effort in Atlanta? Were you able to isolate what are the most important facets that's helping to drive that comp? To what extent is that improvement in sales reflective of you speaking to or connecting with a potentially new customer for CarMax?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Yeah. Brian, the different facets when we implement, for example, advertising or we do something different on free transfers, we know kind of what we would expect to see. We have some expectations of what we would see. When you look at each one of those individually added up, we saw a lift beyond what we would normally expect to see. I think that's something when you look at the sum of the parts, it's more than any individual component. What was the second part?

Brian Nagel
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Oh, I'm sorry. With regard to, is it a new customer? Just helping to drive that comp, is it a customer that maybe CarMax in the past would not have connected with?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Yeah. At this point it's hard to tell. The only thing I would say is we've seen some instances on home delivery, that we probably are picking up some customers that maybe we wouldn't have because they physically couldn't have gotten into the store. This experience is much more than just home delivery, and I think it's a better experience for the customers.

Brian Nagel
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Got it. Thanks.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Sure.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Kennison from Baird. Your line is open.

Craig Kennison
Analyst, Baird

Great. Thank you for taking my question. Bill, you had mentioned that you had a modest share decline on the year. That's a bit of a surprise given you opened 10% more stores. What do you think caused you to struggle early in the year, and then what changed to reverse it?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Well, hey Craig, just to clarify, I talked about comp growth. Nationwide market share actually went up a little bit, but the comp markets went down a little bit. As I said in my remarks, we saw those declines earlier in the year and then we started or saw a reversal towards the latter half. I think we've been in an unusual pricing environment the whole quarter, really starting off in the first quarter of this year. Different organizations manage through that differently. Some may give up margin for sales, for example, and our pricing elasticity test wouldn't support that. The other thing is, I just think that it's been a competitive environment overall. Look, this is a good business to be in, and I think the new cars are under a little bit of pressure. I think we have some new entrants.

I think there's some more advertising, there's just more general noise overall in the marketplace. I think those are both contributing factors, especially early on as we saw different competitors pull different levers.

Craig Kennison
Analyst, Baird

Thank you.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Sure.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rick Nelson from Stephens. Your line is open.

Rick Nelson
Analyst, Stephens

Thanks. Bill, can you talk about these 3 CECs that you're going to roll out to 300 associates per CEC? Are you going to be able to pull out a like number of associates out of the stores or how do you see that affecting expense?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Sure. We absolutely expect to pull out a like number, at least a like number. Again, what we've seen so far in Atlanta, if you think about the way that we staff a store currently, we staff it for what we call e-office shifts. Shifts where people take phone calls and follow up on e-leads. We no longer have to staff that. We will get to the appropriate staffing levels in each store through normal attrition, so we would expect to offset the store staffing with what we have in the CECs. I think over time, this will be a more efficient model. If you think about it, we have more than 7,000 sales associates across the country, and we're currently asking them all to be part-time e-office sales associates.

Some like it, some of them don't like it, some are good and some aren't so good. I think by leveraging folks that are very skilled at this is all they focus on, over time will give us even more leverage.

Rick Nelson
Analyst, Stephens

Great. Thanks and good luck.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Thanks, Rick.

Operator

Your next question comes from Scot Ciccarelli from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Beth Reed
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Good morning. This is Beth Reed on for Scot. I wanted to ask about online marketplaces like CarGurus. I know you guys have kind of indicated that changing up your merchandising on these sites and better advertising your quality message could help improve the price perception, because in many cases, it doesn't seem like you're getting the credit you should be getting for your reconditioning processes. Just wondering, one, how big of an impact do you think this is having on your sales? Two, any color you can give around specific initiatives, if any, and timeframe to improve your quote unquote "value ranking" on these listing sites would be helpful. Thank you.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Sure, Beth. First of all, we feel good about our prices. That being said, we're always making sure that we've got a good price perception. We want to make sure that the customers understand the value of our cars. There's really four focus areas that we're working on, one of which you alluded to. First we're focused more on the quality message and transparency on our website. We're already doing this. As a matter of fact, we rolled out a new website nationwide, at the latter part of the quarter. We're also focusing more on quality and transparency in our non-website advertising. TV, banners, retargeting, things like that. The third thing, which is what you alluded to, is we're working with third-party listing sites to get the credit for our quality standards and the reconditioning that we do.

Most third-party websites, they don't factor any type of quality or condition into their algorithms. If they do, it's not on a consistent basis. I feel really good about all those things. We're making great progress. It may be a factor, but to your other question, I just don't think it's had a major impact on overall comps.

Beth Reed
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, thank you very much.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Basham from Wedbush Securities. Your line is open.

Seth Basham
Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Thanks a lot, good morning.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Good morning, Seth.

Seth Basham
Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Bill, can you just give us an update on what your internal research has shown in terms of the price perception out there of your cars relative to the industry? Excuse me. Secondly, on your price tests in Atlanta and otherwise, what you're learning from those.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Okay. The first part of your question on just the research. What our research would tell you, for example, on, like, a CarGurus, our most recent research would tell you that the majority of our cars are either fair, good, or great, and that's, at this point, without any credit for the quality. I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question?

Seth Basham
Analyst, Wedbush Securities

The pricing tests.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Oh, yeah. The pricing test that I noted, that's part of our normal pricing test that we do all the time. Look, we can drive more sales absolutely just by lowering our prices. Again, it's that balance of optimizing our total gross profit dollars, while also making sure that we're competitive in the marketplace. Competitive in the marketplace doesn't mean on short time periods, like quarter-to-quarter. We're looking for structural changes where we may not be competitive, and we just haven't seen that. We feel really good about where we are in price and what we're seeing on our pricing test as far as normal elasticity.

Seth Basham
Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Armintas Sinkevicius from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Armintas Sinkevicius
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Good morning. Thank you for taking the question.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Yeah.

Armintas Sinkevicius
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I was curious about how much you had spent on marketing in Atlanta, and how much you plan to spend going forward. Then just separately, any comments on the phasing of the launches for the omni-channel initiative through the course of this year?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Okay. Marketing in Atlanta. Atlanta is what we call a high awareness market. If you think about what we spent in conjunction with this, it would've been normal to, like, a geo if we're going to be going into Atlanta, which is a step up, obviously, than what we were paying going forward. As far as what we'll spend in additional markets, every market's going to be a little bit different because it depends on the awareness and what we were previously spending there. As far as the phases of rollout, like I said, we will get the second CEC open early in the second quarter. In conjunction with that, we will start rolling out to additional stores, with Florida stores being first.

Beyond that, we'll update you next quarter, the cadence of the other stores, the stores that we already did by the end of the quarter, as well as the future stores.

Armintas Sinkevicius
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Just so I'm clear, the marketing you've been spending in Atlanta, does that amount to essentially what you're planning to spend on a run rate basis, or will that step up as you sort of work through maybe the various kinks with the website and the market, et cetera?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Yeah, no, I think you should think about it more holistically as far as how much we spend in advertising on a per unit basis. If you look at it year-over-year, I would expect FY 2020 to be a There may be a little bit of an increase in the per unit advertising expense overall because we do want to support our omni-channel rollout. I would expect a little on a per unit basis going forward.

Armintas Sinkevicius
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy from Bank of America. Your line is open.

John Murphy
Analyst, Bank of America

Good morning, guys. Just wanted to touch on one stat, just make sure I had these numbers straight, Bill. I think you mentioned the zero to four portion of your sales was down to 72% versus 76% last year and 77% in the third quarter. I just want to make sure I have that right. If we think below that, sort of what the percentages are, and really as you look at the market, its vehicle quality has improved so dramatically in the last decade.

Could you consider going down a little bit further in the age spectrum because the quality of the vehicle is going to be still really what you want to deliver to the customer is a nearly new used vehicle, and just really sort of tip of the iceberg might be much, much larger for you over time as you go down the age spectrum?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

John, you do have those percentages right, the 72% versus the 76%. Look, the beauty of this business model is we can sell what the customers are looking for. In this quarter, we saw consumers that were interested in a little bit older vehicle. I think part of that is because of the pricing. Keep in mind, we're lapping. If you look at year-over-year, this fourth quarter versus last year's fourth quarter, we had the largest step up in mix adjusted acquisition price. It was more than $500. If you look at the quarter this year, we still had a little bit of an incremental bump up on that one that we had last year. Prices are still expensive. I think what you're seeing is probably people just from an affordability standpoint moving down. You're absolutely right.

We'll be able to secure vehicles and sell them if that's what consumers are looking for.

John Murphy
Analyst, Bank of America

Bill, just wanted to follow up. Isn't the beauty of that you might be able to have lower acquisition prices in the future with this high-quality product and still have the same dollar grosses and have a much more capital efficient business model?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

If we continue to have older vehicles, our overall average selling price, you're absolutely right, would go down.

John Murphy
Analyst, Bank of America

Grosses would stay about the same, right? Just based on your focus.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Absolutely.

John Murphy
Analyst, Bank of America

What Okay.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Absolutely.

John Murphy
Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you very much.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Whiston from Morningstar .. Your line is open.

David Whiston
Analyst, Morningstar

Thanks. Good morning.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Good morning.

David Whiston
Analyst, Morningstar

Just a question with new vehicle sales coming down. Is that all positive for you right now? Is it greatly helping you due to more off-lease supply and more budget-conscious consumers you were just talking about? Or do you think also consumer confidence is down marginally versus a year ago?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

No. If I look at the new car, I think it's been a pretty flat year for overall new car sales. I think we've proven that in years where it goes up a little bit, years where it goes down a little bit, we've been able to have success on both sides of that. As far as I can tell, consumer confidence is still very strong.

David Whiston
Analyst, Morningstar

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Again, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from Chris Bottiglieri from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Chris Bottiglieri
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Hi, thanks for taking the question. Given the comparisons on a 2-year basis, did Atlanta's comp performance outperform the rest of the store base by a similar amount as it did on a 1-year basis? I guess, thinking through that, is there any reasons why investors shouldn't extrapolate Atlanta's comp trend to the rest of the store base, given your intentions to roll it out to all stores this year? Thank you.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Yeah. Chris, Atlanta's one market. Every single market is going to perform differently. The reason I say that is because we have experience in a lot of different markets. If you just look at the core business, each market performs a little differently. I don't think you can extrapolate what we see in this market versus what we're going to see in other markets, which is why I said, hey, remember, this is only one market. Again, on the double-digit comp increase, we feel really good about that. We feel like it's a lift above what we expected when we also compared it to the control group. It's not all due to omni, as I had said earlier. There's a lot of different elements playing into that.

Chris Bottiglieri
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Got you. Okay. Just quickly, if you're able to, well, I'll hop back in. I don't want to break Katharine's rule. I'll hop back in. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Sigman from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Seth Sigman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thanks. Hey, guys. I wanted to follow up on the expense growth. The 5%-8% comps you need to leverage SG&A, I guess you said that's similar to 2018. You also discussed being less efficient in the short term, right? How do I reconcile those two? If there are some levers that maybe limit the negative impact from the investments, can you just sort of help us understand that? Thanks.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Yeah. I think, Seth, the guidance on the five to eight was really to help clarify a little bit of what we were saying, because we were saying high mid-single digit. We put a little range on there. I think we put the range on it because some of it depends on how much we get done and then also how much we can continue to offset through reprioritization and savings.

Seth Sigman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay, thanks. I'll hop back in.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

No.

Seth Sigman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Well, maybe on the same point, if you could give us a sense of the timeline of the investments throughout the year to the extent you can, particularly with the CECs rolling out in the second quarter. Just how do we think about the cadence of maybe expense growth throughout the year?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Yeah. We'll just have to wait and see. It's going to be distributed throughout the year. As I said, the CECs are going to be some additional expense. They're going to be some in the second quarter. You're picking up some there. I think you got to think about it on the whole year because there could be a little timing from one quarter to the next quarter.

Seth Sigman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay, thanks.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Okay.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Bottiglieri from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Chris Bottiglieri
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Thanks for taking the question. Just a quick question. Can you maybe just walk us through what it takes to convert an omni-channel market? I think you're in three markets today, and my guess is you'll probably plan to get to 100 to 200 markets by the end of the year in February. Maybe you could just walk us through kind of what it takes to actually take your legacy store model and convert it to omni-channel. What are the technology steps, the training steps, or whatever else it takes to convert the market? That'd be helpful. Thank you.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Okay. First of all, Chris, thanks for getting back in line for the second question. Listen, on the omni, there's two big things that have to be accomplished. We've been setting the groundwork, as I said in my opening remarks, from a technology standpoint, that kind of thing. In addition to that, we have to get our customer experience centers open, because obviously that's a critical part of the whole omni-channel experience. That's one of the things that we have to continue to work through. We feel good about the plan. We feel very strong about our ability to get to what we've lined out there, which is by February of next year, having this offered to the majority of our customers. The other thing is that there is this, we've got 25,000 associates. As Tom talked about earlier, they are the key differentiators for us.

This is going to be obviously a big change for them. They're excited about it. They have been super helpful in helping us figure this out as we've rolled it out. What we have today is better than what we had when we first rolled out Atlanta, and that will continue to improve as we go forward. We have to make sure that they understand there's a lot of change management and what does it mean for them and how it's going to impact them and give them the ability to adjust for those changes. Those are the big things in addition to a lot of the groundwork that we've been laying. Just so everybody's clear, this is an iterative process. This omni-channel experience is an experience that can meet every customer that's out there. It's not meant for one segment versus another segment.

We should be able to serve every single customer and give them an unbelievable experience, and that requires a lot of things that we already have. For example, the importance of our store, I can't overstate how important it is that we have a physical presence and that we continue to have a physical presence and increase that physical presence as we go forward. We're leveraging a lot of things that we already have.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ali Faghri from Guggenheim. Your line is open.

Ali Faghri
Analyst, Guggenheim

Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just on the tax refund, you called it out as a headwind in the fourth quarter. Based on your historical experience, do you expect to get some of those lost volumes back in the first quarter as those refund levels normalize?

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

The way I think about that is the same way I think about weather. It's a timing. It generally will work itself back out. As I look at February, I think probably by our best estimate, there was about a week that we didn't see of tax refund benefits just because they were delayed and coming out really until the last part of the quarter.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I now turn the call back to Bill Nash.

Bill Nash
President and CEO, CarMax

Great. Thank you. Listen, thank you all for joining the call today. I really appreciate your support and your interest in CarMax. I also have got to thank our more than 25,000 associates. Tom's talked about this. I've talked about it. They are the true differentiator for CarMax. Our associates are the ones that are bringing this new customer experience to life. I want to thank you all for what you do every single day. We will talk again at the end of next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.