Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL)
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Apr 28, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT - Market closed
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 17, 2023

Operator

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that throughout the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs, and expectations for the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2021 annual report on Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has furnished a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its Q4 results. Kinsale's management may also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP of these measures can be found in the press release, which is available at the company's website at www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com. I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's President and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Brian Haney, Kinsale's Chief Operating Officer, and Bryan Petrucelli, Chief Financial Officer, are both with me. Each of us will make a few comments. Then we'll move on to any questions that you may have for us. In the Q4 , Kinsale's operating earnings per share increased by 48% and gross written premium grew by 45%. The company posted a 72.4% combined ratio for the quarter and an operating return on equity for all of 2022 of 25%. We believe these results are principally driven by Kinsale's unique business model of disciplined underwriting and technology-driven low costs. The results are also boosted by the favorable E&S market, which continues to experience a strong inflow of new business that allows for meaningful rate increases and exposure growth.

Kinsale continues to raise rates above loss cost trend, as we have been doing for four years now, and we continue to establish reserves for future losses in a conservative fashion. Investors should have a high level of confidence in Kinsale's balance sheet and reserve position. As an E&S company, part of Kinsale's long-term success is reacting quickly to market disruptions and turning those disruptions into opportunities. Over the last couple of years, and continuing even today, Kinsale is taking advantage of disruption in the property market to grow our book of business at a rapid rate. As always, we are mindful of the volatility associated with property accounts, especially hurricane-exposed properties in the Southeastern United States. Although we are writing more property business than ever, we maintain strict limits on the geographic concentration of business. We model the portfolio regularly. We manage our policy limits carefully.

We purchase a substantial reinsurance program, and most importantly, we are being well paid for the risks we are taking. All of these steps allow us to write the business and capture an attractive return while continuing to limit the volatility of the book. In 2022, property amounted to just under 23% of our gross written premium, with below 10% of our overall gross written premium having any meaningful hurricane exposure. We announced in late December that Kinsale had acquired two office buildings and 29 acres of land for just over $76 million. This property is adjacent to our existing headquarters building. One of the office buildings is subject to a long-term lease. The other is mostly vacant, and we are planning to renovate that property.

The purchase gives Kinsale expansion space next to our existing building and also provides an interesting investment opportunity as we consider selling parts of that property to real estate developers over the next several years. Lastly, we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the market for the balance of 2023 at this point halfway through the Q1 . The property market is quite favorable, but we also see opportunities across our casualty product line as well. Regardless of where the market goes in the next couple of years, and given Kinsale's competitive advantages, we expect the company to continue to grow and generate best-in-class returns under any market conditions. Now I'll turn the call over to Bryan Petrucelli.

Bryan Petrucelli
Executive Vice President and CFO, Kinsale Capital Group

Thanks, Mike. Again, just a really strong quarter and close to the end of the year with a 45% growth in written premium and net income and operating income increasing by 39% and 48% respectively. 72.4% combined ratio for the quarter includes 3.3 points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development compared to four points last year, and then a negligible impact from cat losses in either period. Most of the improvement in the quarterly expense ratio, so 19.9% this quarter compared to 21.4% last year, related to ceding commissions from the company's casualty and pro-commercial property proportional reinsurance agreements.

Net investment income increased by 107% over the Q4 last year as a result of continued growth in investment portfolio and higher interest rates, with a gross return of 3% for the year compared to 2.5% last year. We're investing new money in shorter duration securities, with new money yields averaging close to 5% during the quarter, and duration has decreased to 3.5 years, down from 4.3 years at the end of 2021. Book value was positively impacted in Q4 from a combination of net income, an increase in the fair value of our fixed income securities during the quarter, and the $47million and a $500 million equity raise in November.

Notwithstanding the positive, Q4 movements, our fixed income portfolio continues to be an overall unrealized loss position, resulting from the higher interest rate environment. The company continues to generate strong positive operating cash flows, which gives us the ability to hold these securities to maturity, and the higher interest rate environment allows us to invest new money at the better yields that I just touched on. As it relates to capital, as I mentioned, we raised approximately $47 million in our Q4 equity offering to fund the expected growth of the company. We continuously monitor our needs as market conditions change. Given the continued favorable market conditions and related premium growth, there's always the possibility that we'll need additional supporting capital. Support can come in the form of debt or equity, with a bias towards debt, given our current modest debt-to-capital position. Lastly, diluted earnings per share was $2.60 per share for the quarter compared to $1.76 per share last year. With that, I'll pass it over to Brian Haney.

Brian Haney
COO, Kinsale Capital Group

Thanks, Brian. As mentioned earlier, premium grew 45% in the Q4 , largely consistent with the first three quarters. Overall, the E&S market remains favorable with strong growth across most of our product line. The property market continues to be hard, and in the wake of Hurricane Ian, the contraction in industry capacity has continued as we believed it would. In addition to our property divisions, we are seeing strong growth across most of our casualty divisions. Our energy, general casualty, and entertainment divisions in particular continue to grow at a significant pace. There are some pockets of business that are more competitive and flat or slower growing, such as Management liability and Product liability. Submission growth continues to be strong, just under 20%, which represents a very slight deceleration from the previous quarter.

We sell a wide array of products, and the rates in those products don't move in lockstep. If we boil it all down to one number, we see real rates being up around 7% in the aggregate during the Q4 compared to 8% in the Q3. The property market is certainly boosting that number. The rate changes for property would be well higher than the average. The rate changes for the casualty divisions would vary greatly, but overall would be less than the average, but still positive, which indicates that the combination of rate change and premium trend is exceeding loss cost trend. It is important to stress that rate change and rate adequacy are two different concepts. Our rates are more than adequate.

We are continually reviewing and adjusting our rates based on a number of considerations, such as our target combined ratio, our target return on equity, the market opportunity and shifts in the competition. We continue to keep an eye on inflation. We feel we're in a good position because we've been achieving rate increases ahead of loss cost trend for several years now, as Mike mentioned. These increases, combined with our strategy of conservative reserving, further protects us from the threat of inflation that some of our peers may be more exposed to. The market conditions are generally favorable across the board. We do still see a proliferation of MGAs and fronting deals. We don't delegate underwriting authority ourselves, but virtually all our competitors do in some fashion or another.

Some of these MGAs are being overly aggressive on rates and terms, not all, but some. Despite these new MGAs and new fronting deals, the market has not been too affected at this point. Overall, clearly a good quarter, and we are happy with the results. With that, I'll hand it back over to Mike.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Thanks, Brian. operator, we're ready for questions now.

Operator

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO. Your line is open.

Bryan Petrucelli
Executive Vice President and CFO, Kinsale Capital Group

Good morning, Mike.

Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Hey, good morning, everyone, and happy Friday. Maybe first touching on it sounds like a continued more optimism a bit on the property growth front. And I think we can see that you're ceding a bit more too, I believe, to reinsurers. And I'm assuming the math works, right? If you're growing opportunistically into property versus higher reinsurance costs. Just maybe you can update us whether how should we think about the growth and whether we should think about any changes to your reinsurance program throughout the year.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Okay. Yeah, this is Mike. Our, we buy a lot of our reinsurance on our excess casualty book, where we put up larger limits and on our property book. Yes, the growth in the property is gonna result. I mean, that mix of business shift, both the growth in casualty and property, is gonna result in a higher ceding ratio over time. The property is ceded on an earned premium basis, so there's a little bit of a lag between when we write the business and when we earn it. In general, you know, it would be reasonable to expect an incremental increase in the ceding ratio here for the near term.

Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

I'm just thinking, should we be thinking at all about kind of higher reinsurance costs kind of impacting kind of how we should think about any of the ratios into 2023? That'll be kind of TBD as the year progresses?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

I don't. You know, it's hard to say, right? Our program renews on 6/1. There's been a lot of commentary about reinsurance costs are rising, and we would certainly expect that that would be the case in our catastrophe excess of loss treaty. You know, that's not an enormous cost for our company. We buy $75 million ex of $25 million today. On the proportional side, I think the, you know, the largest contract there is our commercial property quota share. The results there have been quite favorable, so we don't expect any kind of dramatic change in economics on the renewal of that treaty, and likewise on the casualty side. I think we've ceded away very attractive returns to our reinsurers in general over the long term.

I think that'll be reflected in the in the renewal pricing. It's a six one treaty, so it's a little bit speculative at this point. Understand. You know, we obviously know that your results are more profitable than the industry, so maybe pricing for you guys is a bit better. Just thinking about your commentary about growth in the near term. I mean, is there enough line of sight into kind of new growth in the property side that we should be thinking about the gross premiums written growth rate kind of continuing near recent levels, you know, in at least for the foreseeable future?

You know, the things we look at, I would say if you look at the last four years, we've been growing either just below or just above that 40% rate. I would say that's an extraordinary growth rate in our industry. It's driven in part by, you know, some pretty dramatic increases in pricing. It's been driven in part by, you know, strong growth in exposure. I think Brian Haney commented that our flow of new business submissions continues around that 20% growth level. We've always looked at that as a little bit of a leading indicator. Then just some of the commentary again in the press and whatnot about distress in the reinsurance market.

There's been a little bit of commentary lately about reinsurers' concern with adverse development across the industry for the 15 to 19 accident year on the casualty side. I think that would be a good omen in terms of forecasting, you know, decent growth prospects for the industry. The E&S tax receipt information from some of the big E&S states like California, Texas, Florida, and New York seem to indicate that, you know, at this point in the first quarter of 2023, the E&S market continues to grow at a pretty dramatic rate. All those things I think give us a good sense of optimism for 2023, certainly. You know, beyond that, it gets a little bit more speculative.

Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay, great. Just lastly, you know, some industry participants have seen a bit of narrowing spread between pricing and estimated loss cost trend. You know, I appreciate the commentary you gave us on pricing just now, but anything notable you're seeing on in terms of loss trend, any incremental pickup in loss trend in any lines?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

No, I think, you know, we noted a slight, you know, deceleration in real rate. The reason we mentioned real rate is because there's the effect of premium trend in there. We're seeing generally the same things our competitors are doing. We're just trying to convey it in a way that makes more sense and sort of ties more towards, you know, the movement and adequacy across the book. I think our estimate of loss cost trend's pretty steady from the Q3. Yeah. Yeah. What we see in the underlying data is not dissimilar to what our competitors say, and it's like a very slight deceleration or whatever you want to call it this way, a reduction in the margin, is what you said?

Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

A reduction in the gap? The spread, yeah. Got it.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Spread. That's the word I'm sorry.

Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Thank you very much for the color.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from Truist. Your line is open.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Good morning, Mark.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

Yeah, thank you. Good morning. Howdy. When you're talking about real rates up 7%, you're defining that as your nominal pricing less your judgment on inflation trends. Is that right?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Plus, also adjusted for the effective premium trend. Remember, a lot of our policies are sold on, inflation sensitive exposure basis. As prices go up, the underlying premium goes up without even irrespective of rate. you know, for example, we cover products manufacturers. If the price of the product they're selling goes up because of overall inflation, that's gonna give us more premium without resulting in more exposure necessarily. It's, it's nominal rate change adjusted for loss cost trend and adjusted for premium trend.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

Okay. Your spread essentially versus inflation would still be considered seven points. Is that the right way to think about it?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Right. Another way of saying it is that if the real rate were zero, our rate adequacy should be steady. real rate is positive, our rate adequacy in theory should be getting

Brian Haney
COO, Kinsale Capital Group

Stronger. Our real rate is 7%.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

Gotcha. Okay. The nominal rate presumably is something higher than that. To add your inflation assumption on top of that would be your nominal rate. Is that right?

Brian Haney
COO, Kinsale Capital Group

The nominal rate is going to be something in the, in the high single digits at this point. Loss cost trends also are going to be, you know, in the higher single digits as well. You have the premium trend.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

Brian, what was your precise comment about commission growth just under 20%, compared to 20% or a little bit better than 20% previously?

Brian Haney
COO, Kinsale Capital Group

I think, yeah, that I think is exactly right. I said just under 20 this quarter. I think last quarter, I said just slightly north of 20. It's, they're very modest. Actually, the number in the Q4 would be very similar to the number we saw in the first quarter of 2022. There really hasn't been a lot of change.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

Yeah. Okay. Mike, you mentioned the, you don't buy that much XOL, cat XOL. What was the dollar amount of your payment last year for the cat XOL coverage?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

We'll have to get back to you on that. I don't have that. I think it was $7 million or something like that. It is a guess. We'll get back to you on that.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

My question was how much did you pay for the reinsurance coverage? Maybe not how much did you cede to the reinsurer. I don't. Maybe that you are answering my question.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

It was somewhere in the mid-single digits is what we paid for a cat XOL treaty for the current year as a deposit premium.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

Okay. Yeah. All right. If you get inflation on that, it's not a big deal to your point.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Correct.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

Then how much more appetite do you have? Is there a kind of upper bound in the near to medium term when you think about where you're getting this growth in property and excess casualty? You know, how much more are you comfortable taking on to, you know, within your mix?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Well, I think you're always looking at the risk you take relative to your capital base and relative to the, you know, expected profitability. We've got a, you know, strong appetite to grow our business, especially when we're able to get rates, like we get in the current pricing environment. Keep in mind, we've been raising rates ahead of trend for probably four years in a row now. This is an extraordinary opportunity to create wealth for our stockholders. Yeah, we're working very hard to take advantage of it. The one added complication on the property side is property, depending on the coverage you're selling, can come with an extraordinary amount of volatility.

That's why I kind of belabor that point about, yes, property is growing for us at a rapid rate, but we're doing all sorts of things to make sure that the volatility is not growing. We maintain a very broad geographic spread, so a lot of our property business is really driven by fire peril as opposed to, you know, hurricanes that you would get if you write coastal business in the Southeast United States and the like. You know, we see it as a tremendous opportunity. We're working hard to take advantage of it, but we're also managing the volatility carefully.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

Bryan Petrucelli, the profitability when we think about, you know, your gross written premium up 45%, consistent with earlier periods, maybe there's a little more mix shift in favor of property or the excess casualty. You take less of that to earn, but you get ceding commissions, it reduces your expense ratio. Is the earnings contribution from that written premium comparable, a little bit less, a little bit more? You know, when you think about the puts and takes around what you retain and how it impacts the P&L. I'm just thinking that, you know, trying to gauge the quality of the 45% growth with this mix versus, you know, a different mix from earlier periods.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Mark, I'll take the first swing at that. I would look at it this way. As a public company, our investors are not interested in a lot of volatility in our results. One way we manage that volatility is by buying reinsurance, especially on the property where you've got natural catastrophe exposure, and especially on the excess casualty where we're putting up larger limits. There is a lot of margin in that business. Our reinsurers have made a decent return reinsuring our book of business over the years, but we're also well compensated with that ceding commission. Effectively, we're offloading the volatility, and we're replacing some of our investment income on those reserves with that ceding commission. I think in general, it's a very positive trade.

I don't look at that as less profitable than our primary business. It's just, you know, there's other considerations beyond just profitability. It's, it's again, managing that volatility.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from a line of Casey Alexander from Compass Point. Your line is open.

Casey Alexander
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Compass Point

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. My first question is in relation to the ceding commissions and the impact on the expense ratio. Is there any persistency to that, or is that really just a one-time impact on the quarter?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Well, I think it's gonna depend on the mix of business, right? If you have continued growth in the lines of business for which we buy reinsurance that have related ceding commissions, then I think theoretically you could have a little bit, you'd have a little movement there. I think in general, I think if you look at of our expense ratio over the 12-month period and focusing less on sort of the volatility quarter to quarter is probably a good way for you to look at it.

Casey Alexander
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Compass Point

Okay. Thank you. Secondly, while you've been earning more yield from your investment portfolio over the last couple quarters, the duration has been going down pretty rapidly, which tells me that you're really just still rolling short-term securities on that. Is there a strategy to eventually expand that duration and capture some of that yield for the longer term?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Yeah, Casey Alexander, this is Michael Kehoe. You know, the yield curve's inverted, so we're getting paid a lot more on the two-year duration, if you will, than you are on the four or the five. We're capturing that, and we'll probably shift at some point. We're willing to accept, if you will, the rollover risk of a shorter portfolio, for the higher yield. I think as Brian Haney had indicated in his remarks, that we're getting around 5% on new money.

Casey Alexander
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Compass Point

Right

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

... I think that's probably double where we were a little over a year ago.

Casey Alexander
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Compass Point

Yeah. Lastly, what's the age of the buildings that you bought?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

I think one may have been built in the 1960s and one maybe in the 1980s, around 1980. I forget exactly, but they're very well maintained and, you know, I don't think there's any real issue with the one that's subject to the long-term lease. The older of the two does need to be renovated and, you know, our basis in that purchase is pretty modest, so we feel pretty positive about return prospects on that deal.

Casey Alexander
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Compass Point

All right. Thank you for taking my questions.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Yeah.

Operator

Again, if you'd like to ask a question, press star then one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Andersen from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Andrew Andersen
Equity Research Vice President, Jefferies

Good morning. Some really strong growth this quarter, it doesn't appear to be coming in results, but I'll ask anyways. I think last quarter you had mentioned some slowdown in construction-related business. Has the degree of that changed or expanded to any other lines? Maybe just more broadly, just economic thoughts here.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Yeah. We still see a little bit of relative slowdown from previous years. I would like to point out that, you know, our construction unit covers residential and commercial and both new construction and renovations and all across the spectrum. If you look at total construction spending in the U.S., it's not actually down, it's just not growing at the rate it had been growing the previous year. What we're seeing is consistent with what you'd see in the Federal Reserve data on total construction spending. It's growing probably around 6% or 7% nominally.

Andrew Andersen
Equity Research Vice President, Jefferies

Got it. Thanks. Submission growth still very strong here, ticked down just a bit, but perhaps with casualty becoming, you know, a less of a difficult marketplace for brokers to place business, could that create some pressure on commission rates that you're paying to brokers since I think it's a bit below average right now?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

This is Mike. I would say there's always pressure on commission. You know, our brokers are critical to our success. We work very hard for them. We do pay slightly lower commissions than some of our competitors, but we also offer our the marketplace and our brokers a much broader risk appetite. By not delegating underwriting authority, we're able to consider some tougher traditionally E&S placements, where a lot of our competitors that delegate underwriting authority, especially on small accounts, tend to almost migrate to more of a preferred type risk. We also have a very high service model. We quote an extraordinary percentage of the new business submissions we receive, and we quote them very quickly. I think that helps offset some of the commission issues. Finally, you know, we're a low-cost provider.

One of the extraordinary things about Kinsale's business model is we're able to operate with an expense ratio that's really dramatically lower than the general marketplace, which gives us a lot of flexibility to offer more value to the business owner in the form of more competitively priced insurance, but at the same time, deliver best-in-class returns to our stockholders. You know, for those reasons and a variety of others, yes, there's always pressure on commission, but we don't anticipate any changes there.

Andrew Andersen
Equity Research Vice President, Jefferies

Thanks. Maybe just like a market related question. I think we heard from a larger peer that they think of like a sandbox for small commercial E&S of around $8 billion. Is that roughly how you view it, or is it a bit more of a moving target?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

No. We would say that would wildly understate the market. I haven't seen the 2022 statistics, but the biggest E&S writer in the United States is Lloyd's, which is obviously not a single entity, but it's a marketplace. I think they were close to 17% market share in 2021. I think that puts them a number over $8 billion. Most of what they write in the United States is small commercial. They delegate underwriting authority to all of the wholesale brokers we work with. For most of those brokers, Lloyd's is one of or maybe is their largest market.

We would look at the total addressable market for E&S as somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4, and we would estimate the market for 2022 was about $100 billion.

Andrew Andersen
Equity Research Vice President, Jefferies

Great. Thank you.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Yeah .

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Pablo Singzon from J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

Pablo Singzon
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Hi, good morning. Mike, can you comment on the competitive environment you're seeing in the market? You know, other E&S companies have been growing fast as well, some of them the largest, right? I think at this point, the broader P&C industry has recognized the attractive opportunity in E&S. Just sort of your thoughts and the latest on where you see competition these days.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Yeah. I think, as Brian Haney indicated, we feel very positive about the market environment. It varies by product line. In general, it's a bit of a seller's market, more so than a, you know, normal, intensely competitive period in the insurance cycle. That being said, we only bind about 10% of our new business quotes, and that's consistent with the way our book has performed over the last four years. I think that just reiterates, you know, there's plenty of competition. There's a lot of new entrants, lots of fronting companies, 15 or 20 or maybe even more that have opened up in the last couple of years. They exist to connect MGAs to reinsurance capacity, so there's lots of delegated underwriting authorities out there.

you know, that being said, there's a lot of business being pushed from the standard to the non-standard market and, you know, we're battling and competing with probably 75 other risk-bearing entities and, you know, I don't even know how many MGAs. It's tons. I see it as a bit of a balanced market. Property is a little bit of an exception just because of the, you know, some of the cat losses the last several years, the reduction in reinsurance capacity. you know, that's definitely a hard market. All of our casualty lines, in general, we feel very good about. Positive rate changes, good top-line growth, phenomenal levels of profitability, even in this inflationary environment.

you know, I think that kind of sums up, you know, our view.

Pablo Singzon
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Got it. Then just a couple more questions on underwriting here. The first one is, just given your comment on the spread between pricing over loss trends, would it be reasonable to assume some level of continued improvement in your AOY loss ratio next year, but, you know, maybe not as much as in previous years? Is that a fair way to think about it?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

I would say just given the level of inflation, you know, the court systems are reopening from COVID. There's still a lot of uncertainty out there. I think that always causes us to be cautious in terms of, you know, establishing reserves for future claims, and just being very conservative in that regard. You saw our favorable development drop by a point or so. Again, you're just seeing some of the conservative approach to building the balance sheet. You know, I don't think we're really forecasting where that loss ratio could go. You know, you have to balance, I think the prices we charge with expectations for inflation and loss development.

Pablo Singzon
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay. The comments made on cost controls in the press release, you probably don't run the business this way, but I guess is there some effort to, you know, make sure that revenue growth always outstrips expense growth? Like, how are you sort of thinking about that aspect of the business? I ask because you did mention it as one of the... You did mention it in the commentary in the press release.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Well, well, Pablo, I think if you look at the way that our costs break down, you know, say on average a 20% expense ratio on average, you know, 12% or so relates to commissions, and the other 8% relates to other operating expenses. Of that 8% in the other operating expense bucket, the vast majority of that relates to human capital costs. As we're, you know, we're monitoring sort of the movement of the business, you know, we're hiring along the way to manage that growth. You know, as we see if the market shifts and growth sort of goes in the other direction, I think we're well-positioned to react.

Mark Hughes
Analyst, Truist

You know, pretty quickly on that.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

I would just add that, you know, expense advantage, I think, is a fundamental part of our business strategy, it's something we're always working on, not just maintaining, but looking for ways to improve on it, principally by driving more automation into our business process. That's a, you know, slow, steady process that involves rolling out new technology. you know, that's definitely an ongoing goal.

Pablo Singzon
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay. Last one from me. You did mention growth and your expectations around title, but I guess my follow-up there would be, could you provide some sense of the guideposts you're thinking about when securing capital needs against growth, right? You know, recognizing that you have these all these capital resources, your earnings can actually support a decent amount of growth, right? If you sustain like 20% ROEs. I suppose there's some premium level and, you know, whether you think about it in terms of percentage growth or absolute dollars where maybe you'll have to tap more capital. Any sort of like, you know, very broad and high level guideposts that, you know, one might think about from the outside when considering your capital needs versus the growth. Thank you.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

You know, our retained earnings are phenomenal. If you look at the returns we're generating, that finances a lot of our growth. I think Brian indicated that we would look to borrow some additional money, should we need external capital. Hey, if the growth is so extraordinary that, you know, we need additional equity capital, you know, you're liable to see something like we've done in the last several years, very small equity capital raises at attractive prices that really don't impact the existing shareholders much at all.

Pablo Singzon
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Got it. Thank you for your answers.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Okay.

Operator

Your next question comes from a line of Rowland Mayor from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Rowland Quay
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hi, good morning. Sticking on the debt discussion, I think the debt to cap ratio is up to 21% in the quarter. I get the high ROE solves that problem over time. If in thinking about doing more debt offering, would there be a level where you would not take the debt to cap above that in the near term? Where long-term do you expect that debt to cap ratio to stabilize?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

This is Mike. I mean, we like that 20% or so, range as a long-term, and conservative level of debt on our balance sheet. The ratio has been boosted lately with the real estate purchase, but there's gonna be some real estate sales over time that'll bring that back down. In terms of the insurance business in particular, we like the 20%, and we like the idea of using debt versus equity if we can and you know, maintain a good conservative balance sheet.

Rowland Quay
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, thank you. I guess this is another way to come at the growth question. How does your headcount scale relative to your premium growth? Is there a point where it becomes, you know, growing 40% on 40% on 40% becomes an issue of not being able to hire enough talent? Do you just walk through sort of the organizational management of that growth?

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

I mean, when you're growing a business as quickly as we are, you're definitely adding underwriting and claims professionals. We've also, in the last couple of years, dramatically expanded our investment in our IT department. We're making very significant investments there to drive further automation in our business process. I think we've achieved in the last couple of years some pretty extraordinary growth and productivity. If you look at our year-end headcount in 2021, I think it was 367 employees. I think year-end 2022 is 457. We obviously hired a lot of people. Our model is to, this varies by department, but in underwriting, we bring in a lot of new people to the industry and train them.

In claims and in IT, it's more of a mix between new and more experienced professionals. I think Kinsale's put an enormous amount of effort in not just the last year, but going back years in developing people and developing human capital. I think it's, it's paying off, you know, and, you know, allowing us to grow the business and not have, you know, lack of personnel be a constraint on growth.

Rowland Quay
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

That's very helpful. Thank you so much.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Michael Kehoe, I turn the call back over you for some final closing remarks.

Mike Kehoe
Chairman and CEO, Kinsale Capital Group

Okay. Thank you, operator. Thank you for everybody for participating. Obviously, the results we posted for 2022 are the result of a lot of extraordinary hard work by the Kinsale professionals that come to work here every day. We definitely want to recognize everybody on the Kinsale team and all the Kinsale brokers around the country. They're a critical part of our success. Obviously, we continue to work very hard for them to help them build their businesses. We look forward to talking to everybody again in a few months.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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