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Investor Day 2019

Nov 11, 2019

Michelle Ngo
Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer, Kilroy Realty

All right. Please take your seats so we can start the presentation promptly. Welcome to our 2019 Investor Day presentation. We've got a great presentation for you and a very fun cocktail hour. With that, I'm going to turn it over to our CEO, John Kilroy.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Thanks, Michelle.

Michelle Ngo
Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer, Kilroy Realty

You're welcome.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

We're drinking out of regular glass bottles. I'm not sure I'll bring my Diet Coke up here. Hey, welcome everybody, and thank you for being here today. I think this is being webcast as well, correct? We welcome everybody who's listening on by that means. A couple of things. First of all, it's Veterans Day, and there's two wonderful things about Veterans Day. One is that we should celebrate them. They do a heck of a job for the country and for all of us. Round of applause for Veterans Day, veterans. Okay, the other thing that has just become clear today is this a good day to drive on. Whatever distance you traveled, think of adding a multiplier of three to four on that on a normal workday. That's the difference.

I also want to point out a couple of facts about the property we're on here, and that's the entirety of Columbia Square, of which NeueHouse occupies approximately 110,000 feet, the historic buildings. Some of you have heard us say this before in of Nareit's gone by or individual tours, but this location is the most famous entertainment property in the world. That's not my words, that is the historians for Hollywood. Let me just give you four little things about this particular property, this four or five acres that we have here. This is Studio A. It was Columbia Broadcasting System's entry to the West Coast. This greater NeueHouse facility was built by Columbia Broadcasting System in 1938. It was a Swiss architect. He was considered the leader in modern architecture at the time for office.

This was the first dedicated building for music, the first dedicated for broadcast music in the world. Before that, it was the site upon which the first motion picture studio in Hollywood existed. In between those two things, it was the site upon which the first black-acted, black-directed, black-produced movies were made. It was a music building, it was the first motion picture location, and then it morphed into a couple of other things. This is the site upon which Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz, anybody know who those people are? Maybe Rob Promisel or myself. Anybody else? Okay, maybe Tyler, Jeff. This is where they did their live broadcasts on the air. This is where Bing Crosby first sang White Christmas. This is where Orson Welles did his big address. Then it moved into other phases. It became a television production facility.

We have the first dedicated music, first motion pictures, and one of the earliest television production. Then, of course, it was also an entertainment venue over the years. This is the site upon which Jim Morrison and the Doors, well, one of their earliest performances was here. I was told it was their first. Somebody questioned me. I think Nick Yulico, he's going to look it up, I'll just hedge a little bit and say it was one of their earliest. This really is an amazing property. For us at Kilroy to get involved in this early on and reposition this piece of property with all the things that are here. I would invite you, if you haven't seen it, walk around outside. Fender Guitars headquarters is here. Viacom's consolidation of all their West Coast properties are headquartered here.

Major fashion houses are located in the other second office building, then it's topped out by a 200-unit luxury high-rise apartment building. It's also mapped for condo. This is very illustrative of the kinds of mixed-use projects that you see Kilroy doing all over the country now. On our presentation today, we don't need to do that. I think this is really lovely, Michelle, I can't read any of it. I can't read that with the lights on. I can see that we have six items on the agenda, I think the cocktail hour is the red one for obvious reasons. What we brought together today is some of our top and brightest minds. I wouldn't be one of them. I'm the oldest mind.

We're going to talk a little bit about what we've been doing in the company, and what you should be expecting going forward over the next number of years, and how we reposition the company for the future. With that, since our last Investor Day, in the stabilized portfolio, we ended last year with 2.8 million sq ft of leasing. I don't know if we can do that this year because we started out so highly leased, but you've seen a lot of development leasing this year. I think we're going to have another spectacular year this year, and I think we're well set up for next year as well. In development, we've obviously done a lot of leasing with 333 Dexter On Vine. On Vine is Netflix. 333 Dexter is Apple up north. KOP is Kilroy Oyster Point.

You saw some of the deals we just did with Stripe and Cytokinetics there, where we're all leased in One Paseo Retail. It's been just a slam home run down there. We're already 80% leased in the signed leases in the OP office space. From a capital allocation standpoint, we've sold $500 million of buildings since the last Investor Day. We've acquired $372 million of properties in some really vibrant areas. We're going to talk a little bit about that. Then Tyler's going to hit the balance sheet towards the end. By the way, this new and expanding relationships. Okay, Netflix, that was new, but we've expanded that. Stripe is new. Sony, we've had a long-term relationship with them. We just did a couple of hundred thousand sq ft deal up, a consolidation up in the Bay. Same thing with WPP.

DoorDash headquarters, that was new over the last 12 months. Knobbe Martens, we expanded them down in San Diego. Cytokinetics, that's new. Neurocrine, that's been a client for a long time. We just expanded them tremendously. Postmates, 23andMe. It goes on and on. If there's anything I can leave you with regard to Kilroy, we cultivate relationships, and we expand them. You've seen that over the years, and I think you're going to see that in a big way over the next couple of quarters. We like to think we're best in class. I know a lot of people talk about that. We have the best in class portfolio. All you need to do is look at it and see the average age of it and see the rents we get. We think we're in the best markets. I'm very proud of the team we have.

I think we have one of the best teams, if not the best team. I'm just really proud of what we've been doing here. In terms of the portfolio, as I said, best in class. Number one in sustainability on and on, year after year. 10 years average age. It's amazing to me. We go a year or two, and the age drops down, and it shows you how much development we've got going on, and also that we've sold off older non-strategic properties. In terms of the markets, I'm not going to get into that very much because I know Rob's going to talk about it. We love our fundamentals in our West Coast markets. We think there's a lot of room for rent growth in all of our markets, and I think we have the best team we've ever had.

We're really cultivating the young people. Anybody under 40, I consider to be a kid. That's probably not PC in San Francisco, maybe not in L.A., but it's true. We've got some of the most incredibly dynamic fellows and gals here. I think a bunch of them are maybe in the back. You'll meet them later. In terms of sustainability, I remember when we started talking about this six, seven years ago, and a lot of investors would look at us and sort of go like, "Well, what's the big deal?" I will say this. The Europeans were far ahead of the Americans with regard to the importance of sustainability. I think the American investor is catching up. Not all of them have caught up.

We said we were going to be number 1, and we were 5% or 6% sustainable, LEED certified 7, 8 years ago, Tyler, something like that. Michelle probably knows better than I. Well, you can see now. We're 64% LEED certified. Everything we do is either gold or platinum. In terms of we've been 7 years in a row, GRESB is number 1 in North America. We're the first real estate company, not only public, but public and private in North America to declare, and we will make this to be carbon neutral by the end of this next year. This resonates with our tenants, it resonates with our employees, it resonates with the communities, and it's frankly a very powerful tool for us as we market to our clients and as we talk to cities about what we do and approvals we want.

In terms of capital allocation, we've done $11 billion between dispositions, ventures, acquisitions, and development so far this cycle. I read today, I forget who it was, I think it was in Bloomberg, somebody saying that this cycle's predicted to go another three years. Hopefully, that's the case. You never know when it's going to end. All these little blue things are activity. You could see starting roughly 2010, activity increased pretty dramatically. In terms of execution, we've had $8 billion of acquisitions and development starts since 2010. From a value add standpoint, that $3.2 billion of acquisitions was at an average price of $460 a square foot. Most of that stuff today would trade somewhere between $900 and $1,300, $1,400, depending upon the asset, depending upon the building.

In terms of development starts, $4.7 billion of development starts, these really are world-class projects. They're exactly the kind of properties that people want to be in with the floor plates, the ceiling heights, the densities, the mechanical systems, the vibe, et cetera. We think these assets are not only great now but are going to be very good for the future. All you need to do is look at some of the markets that many of you office in, and you can see what the consequences are of not having, there's a location problem sometimes, but not having assets that meet the modern workforce's requirements. They can't handle the density. They don't have the floor loading. They don't have the height. They don't have the mechanical systems.

No place is that more pronounced than some place I just got back from on Saturday that we'll go and mention because I have a lot of friends that run those companies. In terms of development, plus or minus on any given one, if you look at market cap rates and you look at the yields that we're building to, the return on costs, unlevered, starting yields, we think that's basically a turnkey, basically creating twice the value of the investment. In terms of capital recycling and funding, I think most of you know this story, but we've done $2.9 million worth of either dispositions or the big venture we did with Norges Bank a few years back. We've moved out of suburban San Diego. We've moved out of the industrial. We probably should've kept it, in retrospect. The Orange County office, we didn't have much.

We sold a bunch a few years ago. We sold the last building that we had there just last week or two weeks ago. Of course, the 101 corridor out in Thousand Oaks and Westlake Village and Calabasas, just too small a market, and the rents never seem to go up. In all these markets, with the exception of the industrial, all of them are characterized by lots of turnover, lots of CapEx, and by the time you go through all that, you're really not moving any value up. In John Guinee's reports, he would call that value destruction. Getting rid of them, redeploying, I hope you would call it value creation. We've done all this with leverage neutral.

Balance sheet is something that I personally, and I know Tyler primarily, but I personally am very keen on making sure that we have the firepower and that we can withstand the problems that may come up. In terms of development program, I've probably said enough about this, but The Exchange on 16th, the modern super floors, the heights. Oyster Point, we started that eight months ago. First phase is all leased, well above pro forma, and I think 24 months ahead of shell completion. One Paseo, the mixed-use project, we've got a case study on that that we want to show you. In terms of value, as I mentioned, I think we've really created a value that is twice what our investment is on most of these. Some of them might be more, some of them might be less.

Michelle and Eliott are going to talk a little bit about some of the things going on in the value side of things, so I won't steal their thunder. Again, these are fantastic properties. Oh, let me go back. Those little medallions in the corner of each of these photographs represent whether they're platinum or gold. It's very hard to get gold in some of the mixed-use projects. We do our best to get there. In terms of a case study on One Paseo, this really is an irreplaceable asset. I will freely admit that there was a time there I thought One Paseo could be a lemon. You recall, I think it might have been Green Street who came up with the term entitlement purgatory, 8 years of hell and a lot of money.

We had to change and down zone what we wanted to, had originally had approved. Frankly, this is a case of falling out of a tree or that James Bond thing where he goes off the cliff and his parachute's on fire, and he lands on the big yacht with a beautiful gal. This is kind of what happened to us at One Paseo. We ended up with a better project for having gone through it. We obviously ended up with much better rental dynamics on all the components, and we ended up with extraordinarily great design that's impacted not only all the mixed-use components of One Paseo, but all our neighboring 1.5 million, 2 million square feet. I would invite you, if you haven't been down there, the apartments, the first phase just opened. The retail's all now open.

It is just a phenomenal project. This is a picture of a rendering, but it is the way it looks. This is the playground for the kids and whatnot. All of these stores you see here, and there are many more, whether they're national or whether they're local, this is either the number 1 or number 2 store in the national franchise in terms of sales per square foot. It's just absolutely been a winner. The wonderful thing about this is, and these are the residential units here, and they look better than what the renderings are. The first phase just opened up a couple of hundred units. It's 38% leased in three weeks. They couldn't even tour. I think everything's great. Great. Thank you. Am I back on now? No. Hello? No.

Speaker 12

Yeah.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Am I? Okay. Well, good. Maybe I just jiggled something. Anyway, on the apartments, we didn't start as apartment people. We started as people that had to do mixed use, and we wanted to make sure we were working for our shareholders and not just turning over these fantastic resi sites to the residential guys. I think it's worked out pretty well for us. I invite you to go down and look at this project. It will blow your mind. It's blown my mind, and I got a pretty high bar. It is just absolutely fantastic. I think we're just going to absolutely crush it. With the synergy between the apartments. Think about it. The apartments drive the retail, and they also help the office. The office hasn't even opened yet.

It's 80% leased to three or four major international private wealth companies, Deloitte & Touche's regional headquarters, a pharmaceutical company's corporate headquarters, and so on and so forth. We're getting the highest rents in that office space that anybody's ever gotten in an office space in San Diego for a building that's not even done. You don't normally do leasing on spec multi-tenant office space in San Diego. Everything's crushing it. The retail is the highest rents, the apartment is the highest rents, the office is the highest rents. Now we've interconnected with our adjacent properties and some of the properties down the road that we own there in office space via shuttle and other types of apps and whatnot. All of a sudden, we're now seeing our rents in those other buildings go up by 25%, 35% over what we projected.

This is a gift that keeps on giving. These are the office buildings. They come on stream, Michelle. Pardon me? Middle of next year. Yeah. The art here, the programs. We hired a woman away from, what's the shopping center they sold, the big one from Australia?

Speaker 13

Westfield.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Westfield, yeah. We hired the gal who ran their UTC 2 million sq ft shopping center, all the events. We have, for the first year at One Paseo, over 300 events. Everything from the Ferrari Club, to finger painting, to Thanksgiving wreaths, to holiday wreaths, to Halloween pumpkin things, and so forth. It's really a fun project. Just in terms of a little bit on our residential, we don't always talk a lot about this, but here at One Paseo, as I mentioned, we have 200 units. Here at Columbia Square, moved occupancy up to 96%. To point out, it was our first apartment thing. We did 100 of the 200 units as an extended stay. That was a flop. I fully admit that. We screwed up, and we've recovered. We're not going to do everything perfect to begin with. If you can do near perfect, that's pretty good.

We have 237 units in One Paseo. As I mentioned, they're 38% leased. We're doing about seven or eight a week. We have 193 units coming on stream at On Vine, which is the project where Netflix took roughly 400,000 feet that's next to the Academy of Motion Pictures over here, just a couple of blocks away. I'd invite you, while you're in L.A., to go by and look at that. It's a pretty spectacular project. These are all very high-end. The other thing to take away on this, they're all mapped for condo. That means they have the sufficient parking and all the other things. I think there's a big value downstream if we want to convert any or all of these to condos. In terms of financial performance, I think everything about finances can be summed up in the word discipline.

Tyler and Michelle and the team do a great job on this. Our goal, obviously, is to expand earnings, expand the dividend, expand the share price. If we look at 2009, that was a low point for sure. An enterprise value of about $2.5 billion, it's about 4.4x that today, with a 271% total shareholder return. $84.50, I don't know what it was today, but that's, I guess, what it was a couple of days ago when we published this. What you can expect from Kilroy, and you all heard me say this as we've met at Nareit and so forth, is more of the same. World-class development when it makes sense, dispositions to fund development or acquisitions when that makes sense. Acquisitions when it makes sense. It doesn't really make a lot of sense today unless there's a value-add component.

Sometimes do nothing, always maintain a strong balance sheet. Anybody in this room 10 years ago thought we were going to essentially be giving money away for 10 years in terms of interest rates? I don't think anybody could raise their hand. If you can, and you really did see it, I'd like to hire you because we won't need Eliott as a strategist. We just need a clairvoyant. That would be great. From a growth standpoint, talk a little bit about how we position the company. Number 1 is the core portfolio, as we mentioned in our conference call the other day, is about 21% below market. In our markets, Rob will talk about the fact that we think that those markets are going to grow, not at even rates, but disproportionately higher than most of the rest of the country.

The 21% GAAP, I think, becomes a bigger number over time. We can't realize all that until leases roll, but you've seen the power of getting in the markets where rentals have rolled up big time, and you've seen that in our recent reporting, both on cash and GAAP. Development under construction at $2.2 billion. The office and the life science component, which is Alliance share, is 90% leased at or above pro forma. We won't talk about any particular project, but we're basically doing around 8% ROC unlevered on the office and life science when you add it all together. Obviously, the retail's a little bit lower and the resi's lower. In terms of the future development pipeline, we've got, depending upon how we move things around and so forth, a pretty robust program. We'll talk about that in a minute.

On acquisitions, we underwrite everything. A number of you call us, "Gee, we hear you're buying this building," or, "We hear you're buying that building," "Are you buying it?" "It's stabilized and it's core. Where's the beef?" Et cetera. You will hear us being used as a stalking horse, not an actual one, but to gain other people that are investors to consider properties. If Kilroy's underwriting it, they have pretty strict standards, therefore, we should take a look at it. We should buy it. A lot of the rumors you hear aren't true. We do look at everything, and we underwrite most everything. In terms of new markets, Eliott's in charge of monitoring new markets. We're not looking at any other market seriously right now at all.

Long before we went to San Francisco and Seattle, we were looking at them because we wanted to make sure, when and if it made sense, we knew enough about the market to determine whether we should be there. Under construction of the $2.2 billion projects, Dexter, of course, that was long-term lease to Apple, and it was done, how many months? I think it was roughly eight to nine months before shell completion. On Vine, that was leased something like 20 months, 24 months before shell completion. One Paseo, you heard what I mentioned a moment ago about that. Town Center Drive is the one building up here other than the one on the right, which we have just started. That's the 10%. All I will say is, well, Rob will talk further.

KOP Phase 1, 8 months after starting construction, it was roughly a 34-month, as I recall, to shell completion or stabilization. We beat that by 24 months. We have 2100 Kettner. What I want to mention about 2100 Kettner, it's a little project now for Kilroy. I never thought that 20 years ago, if you had told me that a $100 million, $140 million project is little, I would have said, "Not for us, it's not. It's huge." As my 16-year-old boy says, "Dad, the dollar doesn't buy what it used to buy," because he's been studying what the dollar was worth in 1904. By the way, today, a 1904 dollar, if he's right, has $4 of purchasing power. Excuse me, has 4% of the purchasing power of a 2004 dollar.

In terms of Town Center, I think that's just going to be a fantastic project. KOP phase 1, we talked about that. Kettner, what's important about that is it is important to where we, in our strategy, are going in San Diego. I've got a slide on that. Kettner, here it is. Brick and timber type building. It's just a really exciting neighborhood. In some respects, it has similarities to here in that around this neighborhood we are right now, 3,000 apartment buildings have been built since we bought our first building here in 2012. 3,000. There's a robust supply to accommodate workers. In Little Italy, you have a huge amount of supply that's come on stream that's wonderful, and the restaurants, and all the vibe. In assembling this block, it's the only block I think we'll ever be able to assemble in Little Italy.

We start thinking, okay, SoMa, what did it look like when we got there? What did Little Italy look like when we got there? What might be the next place to be? I think we've kind of figured that out. This, of course, is what we're teeing up. What you see in red is phase 1 of Kilroy Oyster Point, South San Francisco. When we talked about this early on, a number of people said, "Well, is this going to be life science, or is this going to be tech, or is it going to be both?" I said, we're going to do exactly what we did with The Exchange on 16th, which we leased to Dropbox, but we had letters of intent before we made that lease for almost all of it with life science companies.

That gave us the idea, frankly, of getting more involved in life science, the early on marketing efforts on The Exchange. What we've done here is we've created a very appealing master plan community. You don't see all the amenities in a little rendering like this. We own the marina in the foreground. That's roughly 10 acres. We can do all kinds of different things with that. The red was 260,000 feet in round numbers to Cytokinetics, the life science company. Stripe's corporate headquarters, which was a big expansion for them, and they may expand further. Then we have two and a half million square feet that we just are receiving. I think we receive next month or the month after the site plan approval, and then we can draw permits when we submit plans.

We're not going to build 2.5 million square feet all at once, but we have an ability to offer people scalability, which is so important to all these users, because they know if they go in and they take 1.5 million square feet or 300,000 feet, they'll likely be in 600,000 square feet or 1 million square feet downstream. We're able to offer that. What's not shown on here, immediately to the right of the photograph is the property that we call Oyster Point Technology Center, upon which we have 145,000 feet. We have to go and get entitlements, but I'm confident we'll get them, and we can then build another 600,000 or so feet, 500,000 feet above the next 2.5 million. That's something to do downstream.

I love these projects where everything you do adds value to what you've already done and creates more value to what you're going to do. That's the way you should think about us, is constantly trying to add value. This is the Flower Mart. You saw that the lawsuits got settled. We and others were instrumental in that. This project received full approval at the planning commission. We'll have our development agreement by the end of the year, and that'll permit us to go forward with the first phase. The first phase is in leasable, rentable market, not city. City says 1.4 million sq ft. That equates to about 1.7 million sq ft. Remember when we did The Exchange, and if we went back and you look, Dorman's looking at me like he's going to grill me on this. We don't have a call-in thing.

You can ask a Q&A. Here's the way it works. Cities measure it by a different measurement than BOMA measures it by. With The Exchange, we had 670,000 sq ft, as I recall, worth of entitlements. It measures 750,000 sq ft to BOMA measurement. That 1.4 that we're going to get in the first tranche or whatever is about 1.7, and we'll end up at the end of the day with a little over 2 million sq ft of office space at this location. 2 million, 2.1 million, whatever it was. 100,000 sq ft of market hall and some ancillary things. The Flower Mart timeline, you see what's happened in the past on the left. Board of Supervisors approved the project development agreement. That'll be done by the end of the year. Flower Mart construction could start the earliest of 2021.

We're not going to start it without a lot of things lined up, like I like tenants, I like the capital structure, all the rest. The market's got to be good, et cetera. That's the earliest we could start it. If that's the earliest we could start it, we could start doing tenant improvements in 2024 and potentially be stabilized in 2025. Don't write that down as an absolute, because there's a lot of things again. I'm giving you what the earliest could happen. If we go to the pipeline.

We've blown through our pipeline, and a number of you have asked us over the years, "Well, okay, we'll give you value for what you've done, but we're not going to give you value for what you might do, because how can you keep doing this?" That is one of the wonderful things about Kilroy. I'm not saying Kilroy me, I'm saying Kilroy the company. This is what we do, and we've done it time and time and time again. I'm happy to share with you, this is our East Village site in the upper photograph down in San Diego. We bought one and two-thirds, or 1.75 city blocks. It's in an area that reminds me exactly of SoMa around 2008 or so. A lot of junkies walking around, homeless people here and there.

Of course, we've got that in every city now, but a lot of apartments. I think 4,500 apartments have come on stream in the last few years. At least 3,000 are in the pipeline underway right now, and another 2,500 behind that. Lots of apartment, great freeway access, got the trolley access and so forth, places where people want to live, where all the restaurants are going, all the entertainment and the gyms and so forth. Then below that, the recent acquisition, Blackwelder here in the Culver City area, which we're really excited about. In terms of the East Village, this is a blow-up. It's about eight minutes to the airport. You see downtown over on the left. You're not going to see big, tall buildings like downtown here. You're going to see buildings like SoMa here.

You're going to see projects like we have here in this community. You're going to see different price points as you do now on residential. You're going to see all kinds of other amenities. Transit is not fantastic in San Diego, but it's best at this location, probably of any others. The existing office supply in this area is zip. It's all old, kind of funky or whatever. We think we've got a really terrific opportunity here. The existing tenant is going to be there for the next couple of years, so we'll be doing our planning. This is fully entitled. It is not subject to CEQA or any of that stuff. It's got a special district.

We go to Blackwelder here, if you're got some hours or whatever over the next few days, or you want to work with our team for the future to tour this. We bought a site. It's got a number of little buildings, and it's all leased, and the rents are about 35% below market. To immediately above it, where you see the red and then you see a white to the left and then blue, 1,200 apartment units underway. A 30-story apartment building, low-rise apartments, 100,000 sq ft of retail, wholesale market right next door. This project is zoned for a lot more square footage than what's on it today. Our thought is that over the next few years, we'll work towards a plan that robustly increases the square footage at this location.

From a transportation standpoint-- oh, well, excuse me, I guess I got to go back. Oops. You see the rail stop right above it here. The metro line is about a five-minute walk, four-minute walk to Ivy Station. You can then go to right downtown to all amenities at Ivy Station. It has a lot of amenities in downtown Culver City proper. The next stop is over at our project at Westside Media Center in Santa Monica, L.A., and then on down to Santa Monica proper. This is one of the two transportation lines in Los Angeles that actually works. You've got the Metro Red Line, which goes from this downtown and stops here a block away, and then goes on down through a number of other entertainment clusters. You've got the metro line here, or the Expo Line, rather, that also really works.

If we take a look at our development pipeline, I want to caution everybody that we're not going to start all this stuff in 2021. We're giving you the earliest possible dates, they can be influenced by cities, it could be influenced by the economy, certainly could be influenced by leasing and capital markets and all the rest. You see that in bright, screaming yellow, earliest possible start subject to market and a lot of other things. This shows you this. By the way, all this is being posted. I should probably tell you that earlier. You can see the square footage there. South San Francisco. It's a little over 2 million sq ft, 2.5 million sq ft. Central SoMa, that's another 2.3 million with the Flower Mart, Downtown San Diego. Pencil in 5-600,000 sq ft, probably office.

We don't need to build resi there. Everybody else is building it, why do it? Culver City, we'll figure that out as we go forward. Then again, development. We will have done, what's under construction, what's recently completed, the future pipelines, $12 billion-$14 billion stabilized value, with a cost of somewhere between $7 billion-$8 billion. The value creation, we think is $5 billion-$6 billion. If you discount that at 6.5%. There's a lot of things that have to happen, so maybe the discount rate. That would equate to $3.5 billion-$4.5 billion in present value. Now Rob's going to talk about the markets. Rob, don't screw up. I always try to give him a confidence builder. There you go. You can read that one.

Rob Promisel
Company Representative, Kilroy Realty

Yeah. All right.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Okay, good. Thank you.

Rob Promisel
Company Representative, Kilroy Realty

Good job. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to KRC's Investor Day. I'm going to rearrange things here. I'd like to start with a Thank you. A little personal story about this project, actually. When I started at Kilroy in 2013, this project, not this building, because this is a historic building, but the rest of the project was a four-story hole in the ground. I have to say, this has been, in my career, probably the best, most fun project I've ever worked on. I think you know, all of us, that when you're here, when we're at NAREIT, et cetera, you see a lot of videos and skyline shots and things like that. I think one of the most fun things, most energizing things in working on ground-up development is actually taking something that is a hole in the ground and creating a dream.

Creating something that is that hook that gets a Viacom or that gets a Fender. The story has to be put together in a way that resonates at various levels within the company, because it's no longer just a single user that's making a decision about where they go. Personnel and HR are involved, housing needs to be around. I look at the neighborhood now, when we came in today, all the housing that we talked about coming is here now. When we get into some of our development projects and things I'm going to talk about, you'll see that this theme continues through the Kilroy portfolio. I'm going to hit on three key areas, that tech is the center of everything, and we'll get into that a little bit more in the next slide.

Our portfolio, both from a life science, media, and tech composite, is so well-located compared to other parts of the country. This is very concentrated in terms of San Diego to Seattle. You have the best of the best. I think one of the things, again, going back to sort of the Columbia Square analogy I used, is that in each market, we're building product that's unique to that market, that's attractive to the tenants in that market. The way you market that project is different in Seattle than it is in San Francisco, than it is in Hollywood or in San Diego. That's what makes it really fun and energizing. We've got terrific marketing teams, our development teams, our architects, John. Everybody that has this vision of what a project can become pulls together to make these things happen. Why are we in tech?

Why do we like life science? Well, look at the returns. Two times FIRE category. Sorry, FIRE category folks, but two times. I'd even lump media into some of that. That's truly an incredible Sorry, wrong slide. That is an amazing achievement, and that's not letting up. I hope John's right. I actually hope it's five years, but maybe it's three years that this cycle has to run. What we're seeing on the ground is no letup in terms of tenant demand, tenant interest in product, and having conversations about long-term needs and space needs. This next slide is going to be controversial, but West Coast has led the IPO value in terms of value, as well as just IPOs in the market, and they've been extremely successful. Let's talk about the two 800-pound gorillas in the room, which are WeWork and Uber.

I'm not going to individually talk about them, but I'm sure that they're all on your mind, and I want to defuse the questions that I'll get later about this slide and what I just said about the valuation of IPOs. In both, I'm just going to lump them together, but some cases, there were local government problems with the entity. Some cases, they grew too fast. Some cases, there were management issues. I look at these, and based again on what we see on the ground, these are, right now anyway, anomalies. We're not seeing Every company in the world is not just going to knock it out of the park, right? Some are going to not make it, some are going to knock it out of the park, and some are going to be middle of the road.

I think that's what you're seeing in the case of these two. The way I look at WeWork especially, is that that space that they've built is really fundamentally great space. If they're not using it, tech companies will use it. I guess I would finish my two comments on WeWork and Uber, and this goes back to, again, a very California-centric kind of thing, and also Seattle, but they're innovators, right? You're not going to be getting away from ride sharing until there are autonomous vehicles. You're not going to see co-working go away because WeWork is reconstructing itself. They in fact, we're innovators. WeWork is New York, so I'll give them a little handshake to New York for innovation as well.

In terms of VC funding, which is a big driver for all of this, and the unicorns and young companies that are starting, we're right now at $26 billion, so on track to meet or surpass 2018, which was a record year. We're seeing that in Silicon Valley. We're also seeing it in San Francisco with a lot of VC firms actually opening offices in San Francisco. There's a lot of information on the slides, and I'm not going to read through all this. One of the fundamental things that really differentiates the West Coast, I think, from other markets, is the concentration of an educated workforce. That's what everybody's fighting for. Whether you're life science, whether you're media, whether you're technology, you're after that worker.

If you look in the Bay Area, or actually just look in California, you've got Stanford, Berkeley, UCSF, UCLA, Caltech, UC San Diego. The list goes on and on. San Diego, not many people know this, San Diego graduates more engineering students than Cal and Stanford combined. We'll get into San Diego in a little bit, San Diego is on the rise. John touched on it a little bit earlier with our success at One Paseo. In the past, I think what was happening was those engineering graduates were moving elsewhere because they could get more lucrative jobs in other markets. Tech has found San Diego, and it's going to continue to expand there. That's my feeling.

I think that both our Little Italy site, which is smaller, but our East Village site is really going to appeal to that larger user that wants the quality of life for their employees, the cost of living, et cetera. The last little statistic I'd leave you with is of the top 15 universities nationally that graduate people in the healthcare, life sciences, and biological fields, three of them are in California. The top three. UC San Diego, UC Davis, and UCLA. When you blend in that engineering talent to the life science talent, the West Coast really does have a unique position. John did talk about our development pipeline, and I look back. We talked about Columbia Square, but there was The Exchange. There was last year at this conference, I was answering questions about Dexter and when it would be leased.

Well, we love the tenant we got. We don't use their name often, we love it. We all use their products. In fact, I have one on me. Dexter, Academy, that's where we've been. When you look at the portfolio and what potential growth lies ahead between Kilroy Oyster Point, to have phase 1 done already in terms of leasing is unprecedented. What's not to like about being on the Bay in San Francisco with a 30-plus acre site? It's going to appeal to life science. It does appeal to life science. It's a very tight market there. It's also obviously appealing to tech because of that recent lease we did. I would touch on, I think some of the same fundamentals. I talked a lot about the Bay Area, Seattle has that same educated workforce that everyone's after.

San Diego, we touched on. Los Angeles has some great schools as well. It is also, if you look at all of these markets, we are on the coast. There is an end. We are not Arizona. We just cannot keep building, and that is what drives value because tough barriers to entry, and eventually you get to the beach. If you look at the companies that have spawned during this last cycle, California accounted for two-thirds of all the unicorns in the nation. If you look at this list, it is pretty impressive. A lot of these are our tenants, and a lot of them are growing. Some are not tenants, and they will be one day if I have anything to say about it. There were 120 unicorns created in our markets, in Kilroy Realty markets. Seattle, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, et cetera. It is truly impressive.

Based on what I said earlier about $26 billion in year-to-date funding, we don't see a letup in that. We talked a little bit, I'm going to skip through this pretty quickly, but a lot of what I've been saying leading up to this, and we talked a lot about it at NAREIT, or excuse me, on our earnings call. In each market, starting with Seattle, you've got Bellevue and you've got South Lake Union. Those are the two places you want to be. I think what's caught up actually is downtown Seattle. You've seen some tech coming into downtown Seattle. The advantage of South Lake Union and Bellevue is that you have a little bit more room to spread out and build the type of projects we like to build.

Tech still, in a lot of cases, has an aversion to high-rise, small floor plate buildings because they're just not efficient. We're going to see double-digit rent growth in Seattle, and we're going to continue to see that. I'll show you a slide in a little bit that underscores where actually the entire West Coast fits within a bigger picture. San Francisco, just unprecedented. I've never seen it like this in my career. I'm sure some of you have heard Uber is putting space on the market on Market Street. There's the WeWork question. I look at that actually as healthy because it's providing a little bit of a safety valve or a pressure release valve, excuse me, for these tenants, where really right now there's no blocks of space over 100,000 feet. That Uber space will get absorbed.

Some of it's in smaller floor plate buildings, which appeal more to a north-of-market, FIRE-category type tenant. Those FIRE-category tenants are also squeezed out by all the absorption that's happened in the market. Hollywood, again, just such a great story. You've got this project, you've got our Academy project that Netflix is taking. John hit on Blackwelder, which is Culver City, just down the way here. Rent growth is going to start pushing into the double digits there. No question about it. You've got big players like Amazon, you've got Apple, both competing for space. You just look at the billions and billions and billions of dollars that are being poured into developing content. Where's that content being created? Right here. San Diego. San Diego, again, when we go through our earnings calls, San Diego is always last.

I should start with it, actually, because it's just such a great story in terms of where rent growth has gone and where it's going to go. You've got Amazon in the market now. Apple's in the market. You've got other tech companies looking in the market. Google has bought many companies in San Diego. Unfortunately, years ago, they closed those operations and moved them to Colorado Springs or other markets. They're really starting to see the benefits of San Diego, which are that educated workforce, a lower cost of living for their employees. Frankly, probably a little bit better quality of life because you're not commuting an hour to an hour and a half to get to where you need to go for work. I expect big things in San Diego, and it's really exciting to be working in that market.

I'm really pleased that we're 97.3% leased today, and we've leased 3.1 million square feet year-to-date, so it's been a really busy year. In all those cases, I started out with three areas that I wanted to focus on. A fourth one I'm going to bring up, which is management. You could all sit here today when we go through these vacancy factors, 2% south of market or 1% in South Lake Union or Kilroy Oyster Point, 2%, and it feels like it's a bid-ask situation. We just tell them what the rent is, they sign up, and we move on. It's not that at all. In fact, what also is challenging is that you're no longer sitting down with a tenant with a plan of a floor and saying, "Here's where your conference room goes, here's where your cafeteria goes," and you lay that out.

That's old school, and it's not what happens anymore. Today, you're custom-building, whether it's multiple floors or an entire building for a tenant. Even though we design our buildings to be multi-tenant or single tenant or life science or office, we sit down once we have a tenant and once we've engaged them, and we start working on, "What are the things that are important to you?" The CEO rides a bike to work, we start developing, designing bigger, better, more robust bike storage facilities and bike spas. Actually, I never thought in my life I'd hear about a bike spa. We're doing a bike spa for one tenant. That part of it is where the value add is.

I think that part of that creation, that design, and that working with the tenant is what makes the difference between a mediocre return and a really good return. I know, having been in the private side before, in private equity, the returns we're getting at Kilroy are the returns the private side dreams about. A lot of it is the markets, but a lot of it is the time and attention that our teams put in, whether it's, again, architecture, construction, development, legal. We all sit around the table and pull a deal together with a company like Stripe. Each tenant is different, and you learn so much working with them. Supply and demand. What can we say? Every quarter, it's been about the same. We're tracking about 10 million sq ft in San Francisco. Seattle's about 7 million sq ft.

These are record years, the last two to three years, particularly in Seattle. Seattle, I think, has a lot more room to grow in terms of net rent. As I said, San Diego's on its way, L.A., more of the same because of that pressure. Seattle is really a bargain, and that's, I think, going to change. Our life science platform. We, as you know, have been in San Diego for a long time. We've got Kilroy Oyster Point, I'm personally really excited that phase 1's done because now we get to work on design for phase 2 and really creating an environment that attracts the best companies. One thing that's really, I think, interesting about life science is we talk about tech, and we talk about how they use their office space. Life science companies are going through the exact same situation.

They're no longer wanting big lab benches. They're building innovation clusters within their floors. They're wanting these amenities. They're wanting all-hands space, where you can have auditorium-type seating and have your employees there for communication efforts, morale, what have you. They are, in essence, fighting for that same talent that our tech companies are. This also spreads to. It's not just the highly paid professional scientist or engineer, it's also the HR professional. It's the accounting, it's the finance professional. They're fighting daily to get the best talent, and the way you do that is you attract them to a world-class work environment. We have, right now in our stabilized portfolio, 11 buildings, 1.2 million square feet of life science, and we're going to grow that.

I think the way these companies, as we talked about earlier with tech, but media, specifically life science, to see how they're changing, and they're probably four years behind maybe where tech was in terms of just thinking about how they use their space. They're moving all their mechanical equipment off of the center of the floor, pushing it into the core, and really creating that environment that replicates tech. I skipped a few slides. There we go. This slide, it gets very hard to read. I'm going to go down. Seattle, the lowest red line on that screen is Seattle, and that's showing an average office rent of about $50 a foot. If you look at the demand that's been in Seattle. As I just said, about nine million feet right now. Seven million, excuse me.

Last year was a record year for rent growth as well as absorption. This is going to continue, so that Seattle is a bargain, but it's going to move, and it's going to move quickly, and it's going to move by double digits. If you look at San Francisco, which is the top red line on that graph, look where it sits in other world markets, Hong Kong being the most expensive, London second, even New York, Manhattan, up in the top five. We think on the West Coast markets, there's a lot of room to move in terms of rents. Honestly, I don't want to say that tenants are rent insensitive. When we're negotiating a lease, rent is a component of it, but I'd say equally as important to these companies is growth. How do they grow?

If they take half a million feet from you, how do they get to 750? How do they get to a million over time? I'm done. I will just hit on a couple of key takeaways. The technology, media, and life science are going to continue to grow. They're the engine that are driving our business as well of a lot of other businesses. The West Coast markets remain vibrant, each and every one we're in. It's just so exciting to work in because it's just very busy time. Lastly, I'd say we're uniquely positioned in the way that we design, develop our projects, and the way we engage.

John said something earlier about relationships, and I take pride in my career of building a lot of relationships over the years with corporate real estate professionals, being able to call them two to three years into a lease and have a conversation about maybe we need something, or they call us because they need something, but collaborating. That often leads to expansion discussions, which is part of what I love. John takes it very seriously. He's met with probably five or six CEOs of clients of ours in the last three months, I'd say. I take it seriously. It's a lot of what I do. Our regional leads, each one is a local sharpshooter. They deal with the local personnel in these companies as well. It's an exciting time to be at Kilroy.

If you can tell, I'm a little pumped up about it because there's a lot going on, and it's really been rewarding. With that, I'm now going to turn it over to my colleagues, Michelle and Elliot, who will take over.

Michelle Ngo
Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer, Kilroy Realty

Thank you. Hello, everyone. Welcome to the second half of our presentation. Not only will we be covering a lot of numbers today, but we're giving everyone a guitar. Just kidding. That would cut into FFO way too much. If you want to buy one, we know where Fender works. With that, let's get started. Three key messages that Eliott and I will be covering in our section today. One, we're going to support our thesis that we've got the best in class portfolio. Two, we're going to demonstrate that our portfolio outperforms the peers as well as our broader markets through metrics and analytics. Three, we're going to talk about portfolio selection, and we're going to show you that our portfolio is well-located and well-positioned for the future. Let's talk about some of our best-in-class metrics.

Six very impressive numbers here that you should associate with Kilroy. One, cash same store NOI. Over the past five years, just under 5%. Two, we've got baked in annual escalators that range between 2.5%-4%. Three, John and Rob talked a lot about the attractiveness of our portfolio. Well, that has translated into really strong occupancy and leasing numbers. Four, with respect to rental rates or leasing spreads, really high leasing spreads. We have signed more than 9 million sq ft of leases in the stabilized portfolio at an average cash spread of 18% and 36% on a GAAP basis. Five, we've got a very sophisticated operating strategy. It's leasing, leasing, and growing revenues and cutting expenses, which has helped us maintain an NOI margin of about 72%.

Six, with respect to CapEx, in light of the large leasing volumes, we've been able to maintain CapEx as a percentage of NOI in that 18% range. Eliott's going to cover it a little bit further in his section.

Eliott Trencher
Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy, Kilroy Realty

Back one. Back one. Go back.

Michelle Ngo
Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer, Kilroy Realty

Oh.

Eliott Trencher
Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy, Kilroy Realty

Touching on leasing for a little bit. Leasing is the engine that drives our company. If we're not leasing space, we're not doing our job. Slide 51 looks at our track record leasing over the last six years. What we want you to take away from this is we've leased 1.8 times the amount of space that has been expiring in a particular year. What exactly does that mean? Well, three thoughts. One, Michelle referenced our occupancy and how high it's been over this cycle. You don't get to a high occupancy, and you don't maintain a high occupancy unless you have more people coming in the portfolio than going out. You can see from the chart here, that was the case. Two, our ability to deal with vacancy.

While we would love every tenant to stay in our portfolio forever, occasionally, some tenants decide to leave. This chart shows that we have the ability to address those vacancies if and when they happen. Third, our leasing spreads. If you look at the numbers in yellow, you can see that we've had pretty attractive leasing spreads over this timeframe. Well, if we're leasing more space than is expiring in a particular year, we're realizing that mark to market sooner. We think that's a good outcome. With that said, how does our lease schedule look going forward, Michelle?

Michelle Ngo
Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer, Kilroy Realty

Let's take a look. This is the next six years in terms of our expirations. It's smooth and manageable. It's going to average about 7%, which compares favorably to the 11.5% over the prior six years. With the exception of two in 2024, there's only one greater than 100,000 sq ft in each year. Specifically in 2020, as we've mentioned on prior calls, in the fourth quarter, we've got an expiration in Long Beach that's about 135,000 sq ft. In the first quarter, we've got a slightly smaller one. It's about 60,000 sq ft in Seattle. On one hand, we've got a very manageable rollover profile. On the other hand, we've got the opportunity to really capture the below-market rents, as you see in yellow there. As Eliott mentioned, we have signed 2x the number of expirations.

We've got a really great opportunity to capture this increase in rents as rents continue to rise.

Eliott Trencher
Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy, Kilroy Realty

Touching on operating margins briefly. Michelle referenced our super sophisticated operating strategy of pushing rents and cutting expenses. It took us a while to come up with that one. We're pretty proud of it. The byproduct of that is margins that you can see here are pretty healthy and compare favorably to peers.

Michelle Ngo
Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer, Kilroy Realty

Let's take a look at our top 15 tenants. The chart to the left is data as of nine thirty. Our top three tenants, Apple, Dropbox, and Adobe. All 15 tenants are publicly traded companies or subsidiaries of publicly traded companies. Nine of the 15 are investment grade rated. Let's look at the chart to the right, what's highlighted in yellow. On a pro forma basis, pro forma for the significant leasing we've done in the stabilized and development portfolio, we added four. It's Cruise, Stripe, Netflix, and DoorDash. Apple, including its sublease at our Mathilda campus in Sunnyvale, will be the second largest tenant after Dropbox. On a pro forma basis, our top 15 tenants will comprise just under 50% of our revenues. The average lease term is about 10 and a half years. We think this is a really powerful revenue base.

Long-term leases with really strong, high-quality tenants. Generally, from a credit underwriting perspective, we've got a very extensive and diligent process. We generally line up calls with tenant financial teams, and oftentimes it's with the CEO and CFOs. Ultimately, we obtain really large letters of credit. To date, we have about $225 million in LCs. Lastly, you must be asking us what our WeWork exposure is. Well, it's zero. Our total co-working exposure is about 1% of our revenues.

Eliott Trencher
Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy, Kilroy Realty

Switching to analytics for a little bit. We've talked a lot about our portfolio quality, and we know how much everyone in the room likes numbers. We figured we'd look at some numbers and see if they support what you've been hearing about our portfolio quality. If they don't, you probably won't be hearing from us next year, but let's see. We're going to touch on two topics. One, our submarket selection, and then two, CapEx. Starting with submarket selection. You can see on slide 55, we have the change in vacancy and change in rents over the last cycle, starting from 2010, all these numbers as per CBRE. When looking at something like this, it isn't exactly helpful in analyzing Kilroy. Two reasons why. One, we're not just a San Francisco company. We're not just a Los Angeles company.

We're a mixture of all of the markets that you see here in red. Secondly, we're not in every submarket in San Diego or every submarket in Seattle. We're in specific submarkets that we decided are the best place to concentrate our assets. With that said, if you took all of Kilroy's submarkets, rolled them up together, what would that look like? How would that have performed? Well, let's take a look. Slide 56 addresses that question. What you can see here is that we've had a 9% decline in vacancy over the past cycle. That compares to the U.S. at 4%, L.A. 4%, San Francisco, 8.5%. We did better than all of those. We also did well compared to our peer group. You might be asking yourself, "Well, didn't all the West Coast markets do well?

Where did Kilroy actually add value?" That's a fair question, and that's one that we asked ourselves as well. Said another way, how did the sub-markets that we concentrated our portfolio in compare to the metro region in which they sat? Did they add value or did they detract from value? Well, let's take a look. This slide addresses that very question, and the way to read it is, if your bar is below the X-axis, your sub-markets outperformed the metro region in which they sat. If your bar is above the X-axis, they did not. Kilroy sub-markets outperformed their region by 130 basis points. Some reasons why, Del Mar Heights in San Diego, South Lake Union in Seattle, and SoMa in San Francisco all outperformed the regions in which they sat.

We think that this speaks to not only Kilroy having the right top-down strategy of focusing on the West Coast, but we optimized value creation by concentrating our portfolio in the best part of the West Coast. Michelle, how would this look if we looked at rents?

Michelle Ngo
Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer, Kilroy Realty

Let's take a look. Using the same data from the same timeframe, our markets generated a rent growth of 77%. We all know West Coast markets did really well during this timeframe. The question is: Did we benefit purely from market strength, or did we differentiate ourselves through specific sub-market selection? Our sub-markets outperformed its peers, or the broader market, sorry, by more than 10.5%. In particular, Del Mar, Hollywood, and SoMa outperformed its respective broader markets by 10%, 20%, and 35%. While we recognize this data is historical, in looking forward, we think our two recent acquisitions in our two new sub-markets of Culver City and East Village, both embody very similar characteristics to that of our existing sub-markets in terms of vibrancy, live-work-play, and access to transit, will be primed for outperformance in coming years.

This analysis, using vacancy rates and rent growth, hopefully we've demonstrated that our assets are very well located.

Eliott Trencher
Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy, Kilroy Realty

Moving to CapEx. Michelle referenced at the top of our section that we've averaged 18% CapEx to NOI ratio over the last five years. Two questions we asked ourselves. One, how does that stack up versus our peer group, which you can see here is in line to slightly better than average versus our public peers. Secondly, and probably more important, is what return, if any, are investors getting on this capital? How can we demonstrate that? We put a little case study together to try to answer that question. We took all of our same store assets, starting from 2015. We excluded development assets. We said, "How much capital from 2015 to today have we spent in total?" By the way, this represents about 60% of our company. Over this time period, we spent a total of $300 million in capital.

Building improvements, tenant improvements, leasing commissions. It's everything. And possibly more importantly, our annual NOI run rate by the end of this period was $60 million higher. Said another way, for every dollar in CapEx that we spent, the NOI run rate went up $0.20. We think that 20% return, if you will, is an attractive one. You might be asking, where do we go from here? While we can't exactly give you a number, we do want to point to our capital allocation, our capital recycling over the last few years. John referenced it earlier in his remarks. When you look at the types of assets that we've been selling, not only are they non-strategic assets in less core markets, they were capital-intensive assets in markets that didn't have a high return on that capital.

Conversely, we've taken those proceeds, and we've redeployed them into development and select acquisitions, which have much lower CapEx burdens. We feel that investors are not only getting a turnover that is accretive in quality, but we're doing so in a cash flow friendly manner. We hope that these short but sweet analyses that we put together demonstrate that we're thoughtful and analytical when it comes to our capital allocation and our portfolio composition.

Michelle Ngo
Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer, Kilroy Realty

We started with three key messages, and we're going to wrap up with three key takeaways. One, we've got a very strong internal leasing team with a top-notch tenant base. Two, we've got a lease rollover profile that is both manageable as well as allows us the opportunity to capture significant upside as rents continue to increase. Three, we've got a differentiated portfolio and platform. With that, I'm going to turn it over to Tyler Rose, our CFO, to cover even more numbers.

Eliott Trencher
Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy, Kilroy Realty

Yeah.

Michelle Ngo
Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer, Kilroy Realty

Are you going to sit on the thing?

Eliott Trencher
Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy, Kilroy Realty

Me too. Okay, thank you. Thank you, Michelle. Good afternoon, everybody. The only thing standing between you and a potential Fender guitar are a few more number slides. Here we go.

Tyler Rose
CFO, Kilroy Realty

I'm going to focus on three key messages as the rest of the team did. The first one relates to our longstanding commitment to a strong balance sheet. The second one gets into our embedded NOI growth, both from a stabilized and a development perspective. The third, how that drives earnings and NAV and dividends higher over time. Many of you have seen this chart before. It sort of shows you our investment grade metrics. I think a couple points to point out is debt to EBITDA is very important to us. We're currently at 6.0x. I'll have another slide on this later, several slides on this later. This number does move up and down, but our goal over time is to be in that high 5, low 6 range. The second is our borrowing capacity.

We have nothing drawn on our line today, so we have a lot of liquidity, a lot of debt capacity. The third is to say that our 95% of our portfolio is unencumbered. We have very little secured debt, which gives us a lot of flexibility to sell properties and to move tenants around. That isn't true when you have mortgages and debt to deal with lenders. From a debt maturity perspective, you can see on the chart, we have a small $150 million floating rate term loan in 2022, but nothing really major until 2023. We think we're really well positioned here. It's well staggered, it's conservative, gives us a lot of flexibility. Again, back to debt to EBITDA and leverage in general. You've seen us say before, we'd like to be on the left side of this chart. We will move around.

As we start new development, we tend to move to the middle of this chart. Then as we complete new development and EBITDA comes online, like we're going to see in 2020 and 2021, we'll move back to the left. Again, we want to be in that six times, high five, low six range over time. Debt to market cap, again, we're very strong today. That is important, but we really focus on debt to EBITDA. From a funding and spending perspective, we have $850 million to spend over the next three years on our under-construction properties. About $500 million of that is in 2020. We currently have about $250 million of either cash or ATM availability to fund that. The remainder will come from dispositions. We obviously have access to the debt and equity markets. We have very easy funding for 2020.

In terms of the future projects, that's subject to market conditions. You can see it ranges from 0 to $1 billion. There's an opportunity there where we may look at joint ventures as we've talked about. This chart sort of shows how we've managed to keep our investment-grade balance sheet during a long period of significant growth. We've averaged 6.3 times from a debt-to-EBITDA perspective during this entire period. If you look at the far right of the chart, it sort of shows two examples of a worst case, or a downside case, which assumes we have only debt to fund our remaining under-construction properties, and we don't achieve any additional leasing. The far right chart or bar shows if we do the leasings. You can see it's really not that sensitive.

We're in that low six range or high five range in either event, that's again, our goal. This chart shows how we've de-risked our development through leasing. This is development as a percentage of enterprise value. We've averaged 13%. You can see we're at 15% today, 13% of that, and this is office we're talking about, 13% of that is leased and only 3% is not. We're very comfortable at this level of development as a percentage of enterprise value, because it's leased. You can see some of our stats here. We were 97% leased upon stabilization in our development portfolio. Moving to embedded growth on the stabilized portfolio. As you know, our same store NOI for 2019 are relatively flattish, the second half of the year has been positive, we think that trajectory will continue into 2020.

Part of that's due to all the leasing we've done and the 2018 expirations we have. Now we'll have a full year. Part of it's due to rents, as all the other speakers have talked about. Our portfolio is 21% below market, and our 2020 expirations are 17% below market. We think same store is going to be much better in 2020, and we'll be providing guidance on that on the fourth quarter call. In terms of development embedded growth, you can see all the projects we've been talking about over the next eight years. The first four years are sort of baked. These are real projects. Leasing's basically done. This is coming online. Lots of NOI growth.

The remaining 4 years really depends on market conditions and when we start those projects, but I don't think there's any company in our sector that has this amount of embedded growth in their portfolio. This is an illustrative example of how that NOI growth in terms of numbers. We're at $500 million today. With the under-construction properties, we move to 45% growth of roughly $700 million of NOI. With our future development, again, depending on timing, we'll drive it to over $1 billion of NOI. That's double the NOI where we are today with what we've got going on right now. If you move that to how that affects earnings, if we get a GAAP return, let's just say conservatively of 7-8%, and let's say our cost of capital is roughly 5% right now.

That's a 2%-3% spread on development. You look back at the prior chart, all those $ billions of development, that's pretty powerful earnings growth and the ability to raise dividends. That's what we've been doing. If you look back over this cycle, 2010 to today, we've grown FFO 65%, well ahead of our peers. We've grown NAV 167%, well ahead of our peers. We've grown our dividends since 2016, 29%, well ahead of our peers. We think with the embedded growth, with the NOI growth, we can continue this trajectory into the future. Now I'm going to turn it back to John to wrap up. John?

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

I don't know if I'm on. Yeah, I am.

Tyler Rose
CFO, Kilroy Realty

Yeah.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Thanks, Tyler. Appreciate it. Thank you. We're literally a minute from Q&A, which is going to be very short. We can have some fun. Those guitars over there, somebody's going to go home with some of those things. I finally have to look at a note. Just a couple of quick things here. We've talked a lot about our platform, how we think we've differentiated ourselves from our competitors and with our clients. It's interesting. We talk a lot about office space as we talk about things with you. We rarely ever talk about office space with our tenants. We rarely call them tenants. We call them partners. We talk about workplace environments and how we can be partners with them in helping them to attract and retain their most valuable asset, their people. Rob mentioned that I meet with a lot of CEOs.

I met with a CEO last week at our innovation center in San Francisco of a company. This is his third company. This is already a unicorn. It's going to be huge. One of his advisors is a friend of mine, previous CFO of a major tech company in San Francisco. He said, "Look, we've leased 20-some thousand feet from you, or at least we're under letter of intent. We need a path to a half a million square feet in five years, a path to a million square feet in 10, and maybe that'll be in five. You're the people that we know can accommodate us. We have to do business with you.

You've got the reputation. When he talks to his peers, the people that are the CEOs, more frequently than not, they're in their 30s or 20s of a lot of the companies we do business with. It's an ecosystem or a club, but it's an ecosystem that you want to be part of. We've worked very hard to be part of that ecosystem. The last comment I'd leave you with is this, before I talk about Fender. This doesn't happen overnight, it didn't happen just because of me and Jeff and Tyler and Michelle and others. It's happened because we have an extraordinary team of people. A bunch of them, if they're tall and young and male, they're back there someplace.

If they could be tall or not as tall, women that are also back there, they're some of the brightest people in our industry, and I'm really proud to call them associates and partners of mine. With that, do we go to Q&A or do we talk about Fender?

Tyler Rose
CFO, Kilroy Realty

We go to Q&A.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Q&A. Okay. Who's got a question? Nobody. That's awesome. Oh, somebody over there. No, way over there. Whoever that is. Yep. Raise your hand again, please.

Speaker 7

Here.

Can you talk about the Blackwelder? Sorry.

Can we talk about Blackwelder?

Can you talk about the Blackwelder deal, your basis, and what the long-term investment horizon is there?

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Yeah. I tried to cover that, but the cost was $100?

Tyler Rose
CFO, Kilroy Realty

I think you were saying $189 million. Am I allowed to know? No.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

What was Blackwelder, $186 million? $186 million. I remember the numbers better than you. The going-in yield?

Tyler Rose
CFO, Kilroy Realty

The going-in yield was mid threes, but we're going to drive that to 6% with the growth in the rents.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

From a redevelopment standpoint, I don't want to give you a specific number. That was Jamie, was it?

Tyler Rose
CFO, Kilroy Realty

Steve.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

I don't want to give you a specific number because we've got to go through an entitlement process. I'd just as soon our competitors don't know what we're going for. I can tell you the Cumulus project next door was roughly four FAR, and if we did the four FAR, we'd be sort of 600,000 feet. 650,000 feet. We may do better than that. We'll see. Yep, Michael.

Speaker 8

Thanks. John, you have an amazing growth profile embedded in the company, between the development and the core. You talked a little bit about looking at other markets and said there was nothing immediately on the horizon, what markets are you spending the most time, from a research perspective, that you think could be additive to the enterprise?

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Well, first of all, I want to make clear we have no discussion going on or plan at this point to grow into another market. We've assessed a lot. I'm reluctant to share that for competitive reasons. I don't think it gets us anywhere if we do that. If they are vibrant markets that are appealing to technology or entertainment and those that follow, and have the amenities, the transportation, the lifestyle, the culture, and all the rest, you could sort of say that would be amongst the list of good candidates. I will say that our markets have expanded even within the clusters we have now because you know how we speak in terms of circles is where we want to be. It's not always adding another circle. Sometimes the circle gets bigger, and that's what we've seen in San Diego.

Right now, I look at it, I go, the opportunities within a two-hour plane ride of where we're headquartered are amazing. Why would we go someplace else at this point? That doesn't mean we won't look. Yeah, Steve? Sorry. Beg your pardon. I'll come back to you. No, Steve, I saw your hand. I'm sorry, guys. The light's very unfair. I can see some people, but not everybody. Yeah.

Speaker 9

Can you just talk about some of the land opportunities you're looking at in Bellevue, and how you look at that sub-market? You've done a lot in South Lake Union.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Yeah.

Speaker 9

Just sort of what are the opportunities on the east side of Seattle?

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Yeah. You've heard me say that one of the things we like about Seattle is that the rents are relatively cheap compared to other markets where the same kinds of tenants are. San Francisco, we're now seeing rents in the $80 triple net range for quality product. I think we'll see better than that, frankly, on some of the projects to come. Seattle, by comparison, when we entered it was sort of in the mid to low 20s, with a previous high of 32. When we underwrote the 333 Dexter, we underwrote it, I think, at 37. We did obviously a lot better than that. Rents are going to go up a lot more in those markets. Bellevue has got some good things going for it. It's got some transportation.

One thing that makes me a little nervous about Bellevue is there's such concentration of a few really big companies. Down in Lake Union and Seattle, you have a much greater diversity of tenant, and a much greater number of big and mid-size tenants. We're trying to figure out exactly what we're going to do. I think if you listen to our third quarter call, you might have a little bit more clarity. They're both great markets. A lot going on in Bellevue right now. A lot going on. Most of it's positive. I think you're going to see, and we've seen already If you want to be in a circle within Bellevue, and that doesn't mean the circle won't expand.

You're seeing some people pay up for some stuff that I don't think is going to be in the circle in the next 10 years, just because it's got a Bellevue name. You see the same thing in West L.A. or here, San Francisco. Some people buying some stuff just because it's in San Francisco, or just because it's here, and it's not the stuff that we're really interested in. I'm sorry to be wordy, but hopefully, that gives you a little bit more clarity. Yes, sir. Do we only have one microphone? Okay. I'm sorry. I didn't even know you had one over there. Hang on. Go ahead.

Speaker 10

John, last year around this time, I think we were talking about Prop C in San Francisco.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Right.

Speaker 10

Since then, we've had the Uber contract law get passed. Can you talk about the regulatory environment in your markets, and how does that come up in the conversations with your tenants and partners when they're making such long-term decisions?

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

There's been a fair number of pieces written, and I don't want to give the reference incorrectly, but I think it's by a number of the major brokerage firms, international and U.S. big real estate brokerage firms, talking about how they think that most of these tenants are relatively insensitive to it. They've moaned and groaned about it. It's more about people than it is about taxes. I'm old school. I believe if you pay for a pothole to be fixed, you should get a pothole to be fixed. You shouldn't pay for a pothole to be fixed, only to continue an unsupportable pension program and never get the pothole fixed. I hate to be so corny, but that's the way I look at it, very simplistically.

What we're seeing, you see it in New York, you see it in Chicago, you see it in every big city in the U.S. We're seeing infrastructure that needs to be dealt with, and they've got to find a way to deal with homeless, and they've got to find a way to provide more affordable housing. You're ending up with all kinds of legislation, and some of it's good, and we support. Some of it is cockamamie and it's stupid. Sometimes the stupid stuff gets passed. All you need to do is look at Washington and ask if you're happy, and then every other government agency seems to be a microcosm of that same kind of insanity. I personally don't like debt. I personally don't like potholes. I personally don't like homeless. I personally don't like all these propositions.

One of the reasons these cities do it, and the state does propositions, is because you don't have politicians leading and finding real solutions. You have a lot of people talk. All I can tell you is that when we talk to our tenant base, some of them will go, "Yeah, I'm irritated at that." They may, at the margin, say they want to do something different or whatever, but we're not really seeing it the way I think, what's wrong with me? I guess I'm too conservative. A lot of people just don't seem to get bothered by this. I don't want to be Pollyannish about it. I think the policies in some of these cities are absolutely insane.

The fact that you can have people out defecating on the street, shooting up, whether it's on this California incline in Santa Monica or whether it's around here. It doesn't matter where it is. It's a public health issue. I'd like to see more done that really gets our cities cleaned up and whatnot. I'm not seeing it with tenants saying, "We're going to leave." That doesn't mean some of them won't say that, and some may feel it. We're just not seeing it. Yes, sir.

Speaker 11

Yeah. It's probably a related issue. Your fundamentals are obviously excellent, and so in terms of the worry where it's out there.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Is that Rich?

Speaker 11

No, it's James Sorbo.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Oh, okay. Sorry.

Speaker 11

Yeah.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

I couldn't tell who it was. I thought I recognized the voice. Pardon me. Go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yeah. Would tax uncertainty be in the top three risks for Kilroy in the next year?

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Tax uncertainty?

Speaker 11

Yeah.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

No. I think it all starts with idiots on the right and idiots on the left. There's not enough people in between. I think that's the biggest risk we've got as a country, whether it's looking at Kilroy or looking at International Harvester or looking at your own jobs and whatnot. I think we just got idiots running the ship. I think that's first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, 10th, and maybe all the way to 20. Do I like the taxes? No. My personal taxes, your taxes, everybody that's in the 1%. By the way, what is 1%? Like $200,000 or something? Everybody in that 1%, their taxes in California, New York, all these places skyrocket because you can't deduct your state income tax. I'm not hearing of anybody, any companies moving because of that.

What you hear is companies expanding into markets in which they can find that which is their most dearest asset, which are highly qualified people. Not moving away from, they're generally expanding into. Anybody else? Okay, we've nailed it. What am I supposed to do now?

Tyler Rose
CFO, Kilroy Realty

You're going to introduce-

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Oh, what I say. Jay?

Jay Leupp
Analyst, Lazard Asset Management

Yeah. Jay Leupp. Yeah, thanks, John and Tyler.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Last question.

Jay Leupp
Analyst, Lazard Asset Management

Last one. It's a two-part. Can you tell us a little bit about the expected same store or year-over-year earnings growth of 7% and how you expect the dividend to continue to grow in line with that? Secondly, if you can talk about the high low on NOI doubling from $5 million to $600 million to $1 billion, and what major milestones you have to hit to see that happen?

Tyler Rose
CFO, Kilroy Realty

Well, on the dividend, as I mentioned in my comments, we've grown the dividend 29% over the last four years. We're not going to talk specifically about what our dividend growth is, but usually every May, we increase the dividend. Given our earnings growth has been pretty substantial and our earnings in 2020 should grow again, we would anticipate nice dividend growth in 2020. I'm not going to get into the specifics, but it should follow the same pattern. The second question.

Jay Leupp
Analyst, Lazard Asset Management

It was getting to the $1 billion of NOI.

Tyler Rose
CFO, Kilroy Realty

Yeah. The $500-$715 was basically what's baked. Those are under construction properties, leased. We're going to get to that $715. The $715 to the $1 billion is the future. Flower Mart, KOP phase 2 to 4, so forth. When we start those, how those time out is unknown. When we finish all those, that's when you get to the $1 billion. That could be over a longer period of time.

John Kilroy
CEO, Kilroy Realty

Okay. Thank you all for your questions. Thanks for bearing with us. I want to say, whoever organized the air conditioning, thank you, because normally these things are way too warm. I want to talk a little bit about Fender because Shannon, are you coming up here? Do I go ahead and say this? Okay. Shannon Knuth, who's our senior vice president of marketing, is going to join me here in a minute. She and her team have put this event together. They do a lot of events up and down the platform for us. This evening, you've seen the guitars, you heard us talk about Fender. They're obviously an iconic brand here in the United States. They're probably, without question, the coolest tenant we have. They're one of my favorite. They're amazing people. I'm so proud that they returned from California.

Their roots were in Orange County in California. They moved, I think, to Arizona. They moved back here. They made the decision they really wanted to be in a cool place that represented their brand to their international and national clientele. They've got a lot of great things going on where you can do online guitar lessons and whatnot. Shannon will talk about that later, or somebody will. They're just an amazing company. They're 73 years old. They're synonymous with all things rock and roll. Shannon, here we go.