Go ahead and get started for our lunch presentation today. I want to wish everybody a good afternoon and a welcome to the 31st EnerCom Denver, the Energy Investment Conference. I am Kevin Andrus with EnerCom, and I, along with the EnerCom team, our global sponsor, Netherland, Sewell & Associates, and our conference sponsors, AIDEA, which stands for the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, First Horizon, Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP, ATB, Cormark Capital Markets, CAC, Beatty & Wozniak, P.C., OneNexus, IMA, and our very own Oil & Gas 360.
It is truly special to see so many old friends and new faces. For three decades, EnerCom Denver has brought together energy leaders, investors, innovators, and industry professionals to share insights, spark conversations, and build lasting relationships. This year is no exception. We will hear from world-class presenters, engage in thought-provoking discussions, one-on-one meetings, and connect through one-of-a-kind networking opportunities.
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Just a side note here, for security reasons, if you need to leave the room, you will not be allowed back in. Hopefully you can wait through the presentation today. At this time, please join me in giving Rick Talley a warm welcome with Netherland, Sewell.
Thank you, Kevin. Thanks to all of you for being here, and obviously, a big thanks to Kevin and Blanca and the EnerCom team for what they put together. It is always great to feel the energy and have everybody here, and really an honor today for us to be able to introduce our keynote speaker today, Ron Gusek, President and Chief Executive Officer of Liberty Energy.
Not that he needs an introduction, or Liberty at that, but they are a Denver-based energy services company, one of the largest providers of completions technologies for oil and gas and geothermal, and obviously have expanded beyond the traditional completions business into distributed power. Here to talk a little bit about Liberty, about their view on macro issues, and their goal of bettering human lives, please welcome Ron. Thank you.
Good afternoon, everyone. Pleasure to be with you here this afternoon. I got to remember to stand by the podium. Apparently, that's where the camera is. I'm a bit of a wanderer when I talk, so this is going to be a little bit of a challenge. But it is a pleasure to spend a little bit of time with you this afternoon. I am going to talk about a few different things.
This presentation is set up to be published on the web, so it's not exactly in the order I would typically do this, so I'm going to jump around a little bit. You'll forgive me as I hop through some slides and do this in the order that I think is more appropriate for our conversation today. I want to start by recognizing that it's a big year for Liberty this year.
We turn 15 years old. It was in May of 2011 that Chris hired our first employee. His name was Jim Brady. He's our Senior Vice President of Operations today. It was the two of them together that had a shared vision for what they believed could be a very, very different company, and that was ultimately the genesis of Liberty and who we are today, what we stand for today, and what we've worked so hard to execute over the last 15 years.
We had a very, very simple idea at that time, which was to build the best damn frack company, period. That's simple. That's evolved a little bit now to be the best damn energy company, period. We're doing a few more things than we did then.
As part of that, though, we had a very simple mission statement, and that mission was to better human lives, to better the human lives, first of all, of the people who came to work for Liberty, to better the human lives of the people in the communities that we served, and ultimately, to better the human lives of people around the world.
That mission is something that we have served proudly over the last 15 years. It's something that gets all 6,000 people who today call Liberty home out of bed every morning to go and do what they do. We're very, very proud to have evolved that into a much broader conversation, and I'm going to spend a little bit of time on that piece of our world first. So don't forget about that stuff.
I'm going to talk about some things that require that disclosure up front in a little bit. I'm not going to start with Liberty. I want to jump ahead and spend a little bit of time talking about the macro world and talking about how we need to be thinking about energy because unfortunately, even today, despite now a pretty massive disruption that's gone on for a period of six months, I still hear conversation around energy that I think is not grounded in the realities that our world faces today.
So let's start with this picture here. Let's start with this picture of what has happened as a result of the interruption in flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It's been in the news for six months now. You all have some sense of the scale of that disruption.
What transited the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis was not an insignificant amount of energy when we consider that on a global basis. 25% of the world's LNG used to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Obviously, something that's not easily reallocated or pointed in a different direction, unlike crude flows where we've been able to mitigate some of that with some changes in pipeline flow and some additional pipeline construction.
LNG flow is really stuck in the fact that we cannot get ships in and out of that world. It was also a meaningful part of crude flow. Of course, that's led to of order maybe 2.5 billion barrels of oil removed from the global market over the last six months. We were very, very fortunate in that we came into this year with a massive oversupply of oil in the market.
We had a lot of barrels on the water in floating storage. We had a significant supply-demand disruption. Then ultimately, maybe the biggest surprise, we had China demonstrate a significant ability to flex their demand for crude over this last six months. Those things together have allowed us to navigate what is arguably the world's largest single disruption of energy supply without seeing crude prices go to something astronomical.
That said, there are some real challenges that have come as a result of this, and unfortunately, we do not see them in the news here. I am going to talk about those in a little bit. First of all, I do want to talk about the story right here in North America.
It is a story you are probably all very familiar with, but it is one that is a testament to what happens when you allow for innovation, ingenuity, hard work, private entrepreneurs, and private business to go out and unlock what was previously believed to maybe be an unrecoverable resource. That is the shale revolution. The story of it is right here on this graph.
If you backed up 20 years ago, just to 2006, you would find that the U.S. was the largest importer of oil anywhere in the world. Now you fast-forward to today and we are the largest producer of crude oil anywhere in the world, and a meaningful reason that this disruption has not been more impactful than it has been globally. The LNG story, the natural gas story, has been a very, very important one as well.
We have seen natural gas production grow pretty significantly onshore the U.S., making us now a meaningful contributor to global LNG supply. These things are important. These things matter. While I would say that the U.S. has generally been immune to it. Yes, people complain about their gasoline prices.
Certainly, I can understand the frustration when it costs significantly more to fill your tank up with gasoline today than it did maybe six or eight months ago. We, for all intents and purposes, have been removed from the meaningful challenges that this has led to around the globe. I am going to talk about those in a little bit, but I do want to talk about a couple of exceptions in the U.S. that demonstrate just what happens when energy policy goes awry.
California is a state that has not been immune to the disruptions that we have seen. We have a state that has been working hard to significantly impede the production of oil and gas. They used to be one of the largest producers in the country. Of course, they have fallen far from that lofty peak. They are working hard to get rid of every refinery that exists in their state, despite requiring a very special gasoline blend there.
Despite all that California says, their economy still runs meaningfully on oil and natural gas. In fact, 75% of the primary energy consumed in California on a daily basis still comes from oil and natural gas. That is higher than the United States on average, where the number is 74%. Of course, they do not produce all of that internally, and they are relatively an energy island.
They are not connected to much of the rest of the United States by pipeline. As they have disrupted their ability to produce energy internally, that has meant that it starts to come from overseas. 20% of the jet fuel that California consumes on a daily basis comes from across the Pacific Ocean. Of course, they go through a lot of jet fuel in California.
They rely heavily on countries like South Korea and Singapore to deliver that much-needed fuel to them. The same is true for gasoline. When you have a disruption in the crude supply to those countries, Singapore, South Korea, the refineries in Asia, that leads to a disruption in supply for California. Luckily for California, they are rich enough to buy their way out of that problem. They have done so.
They have done so at the expense of somebody else. Refined products are not a zero-sum game, and there has been repercussions as a result of decisions that California has made. While they stand on their podium and they preach about the decisions they are making around energy policy, people on the other side of the world are suffering today because of California's energy decisions.
I stand here in a country that is rich in energy, frustrated by those decisions, knowing that there are other people who have no say in those decisions and only have to live with the consequences of those. I want to spend a little bit of time on that. You have seen this graph before. This is the energy stack over the last 200 years. It dates back to 1800.
It is a graph we show often that talks about global energy demand, how that has evolved, and what that has meant for humanity. You can see the data there. First of all, I would say what Chris has always said, there is no energy transition going on. We have an energy addition story going on. No new energy source today is yet capable of meeting growing energy demand on an annual basis.
No new energy source is capable of that. I am 55 years old this year. I was born in 1971. When I was born, crude oil, natural gas, and coal made up about 85% of the global energy supply. Fast-forward to today, 55 years later, and certainly trillions of dollars of investment later, crude oil, natural gas, and coal still make up about 85% of global energy supply.
If you look just since 2010, maybe over the last 12, 14, 15 years, and looked at how much global energy demand has grown, it has grown from about 500 exajoules. An exajoule is a really big number. That is all of the energy consumed by humanity in the space of 15 hours. That is a gigawatt scale nuclear power plant running nonstop for 32 years. That is a big number.
We have grown energy demand from 500 exajoules to about 625 exajoules on an annual basis now. Crude oil, natural gas, and coal have met about 75% of that incremental demand. On a percentage basis, they are not the fastest-growing. That award certainly goes to something like solar. But in terms of actual units of energy provided, they are still way up there. Energy is important.
I do not think you can make a case for the fact that that second line there, which is human wellbeing, effectively human lifespan, could have been accomplished without access to abundant, affordable, reliable energy. For thousands and thousands and thousands of years, the average human lived to be about 30 years old, maybe a little better than that.
Then all of a sudden, in the space of 200 years, we have more than doubled human life expectancy. I think you could point to a lot of things that ultimately lead to that, but none of those things was possible without access to abundant, affordable, reliable energy. It is either the enabler of those things or a key component in those things. I am going to talk a little bit about that as well. Unfortunately, I think this story gets forgotten as we think about energy policy.
Arjun Murti deserves credit for this. He worked at Goldman Sachs for a number of years, now at Veriten with Maynard Holt, for those of you who know that organization. Also very fortunate to have Arjun on our board. He coined the phrase, "The lucky 1 billion people." If you live in Western Europe, in North America, in Japan and South Korea, in Australia, in New Zealand, you are part of the lucky 1 billion people.
You consume on average 13 barrels of oil per person per year. If you are part of the other 7 billion people, the much less fortunate 7 billion who live elsewhere in the world, you consume on average 3 barrels of oil per person per year. Of course, those people want exactly what we want, and there have been some incredible stories of that.
This is just a picture of two countries to show you them side by side, but it gives you a sense of why I am so bullish on the outlook for oil and natural gas over the coming years. On the right-hand side, you see South Korea. In just a little over my lifetime, they have gone from an incredibly poor country to a very, very wealthy country.
But what is important that I want to show here is exactly what happened to their energy consumption as they made that transition from poor to wealthy. 24x per capita energy consumption as you look at that country and what has happened as they have accomplished that significant change in human wellbeing inside their borders. On the left-hand side is China. China is only partway along that.
They have lifted their population from poor to call it middle class today, and they are still on the steep part of that curve. This is the first time that a country that has more than a billion people inside its borders has embarked on this journey, has successfully migrated their population from poor to middle class. When you think about that number's only 7x for them.
They're now up to, you can see about 4.5 barrels of oil per person per year. When you multiply going from effectively 0- 4.5 barrels, so let's just call it 4 barrels of oil per person per year times 1.4 billion people, you get a massive change in demand for crude oil over the course of that timeframe. China's the first big country on its way up this.
India is not far behind, of course. South Korea is an example of what that curve will look like. Of course, the energy mix will look different for each and every one of these countries as they navigate that transition. It won't all be crude and natural gas that supplies that, but I would argue that a significant amount of it will be.
If you sit back and think about the math that's involved in having 7 billion people move from relatively little access to energy to even some meaningful amount of access to energy, just to middle class, 5 or 6 barrels of oil per person per year, the long-term outlook for oil and natural gas is meaningful. In fact, it's massive. The U.S. and our partners to the north in Canada will play a meaningful role in that.
It's why I'm bullish in what we do every day. It's why I remind our 6,000 people at Liberty that what they do every day is important, that it truly changes people's lives. The story in South Korea demonstrates exactly that. We are seeing energy demand grow in some other places now that I ultimately also think will dramatically change the outlook for human wellbeing.
AI plays a significant role inside Liberty's world. I'm going to talk about that in a little bit, just what it is doing for us. I have seen firsthand what a difference it can make, what an impact it can have from an economic standpoint. I am a believer in AI and the role it is going to play in our world. Not that it is going to take away people's jobs. It's going to evolve people's jobs.
I haven't laid off a single person because of AI. Yes, their job looks a little different today than it did two years ago, but they are more productive, and they are working on different problems of a different scale now because we have this doing some of the work behind the scenes. I'll share with you a few stories about that.
The amount of energy that AI is going to consume to be able to provide that sort of benefit globally is not insignificant. Again, I believe that we are going to play a significant role in that in the oil and natural gas world. You're seeing that firsthand here in the U.S. as we stand up more and more power generation fueled by natural gas to help drive the compute that is going to be required in this space.
We started a foundation a few years ago. 2024 was our first year when we launched the Bettering Human Lives Foundation. We started off with a very simple mission. The goal was to convert 1 million homes and 1,000 schools from cooking over a fire of wood, sticks, dung, crop waste, whatever they could gather, to cooking over clean-burning LPG. This is a problem that is immediately solvable.
This is a problem that we could fix tomorrow with the appropriate amount of capital deployed to it. But instead, because we have people fixated on removing oil and natural gas from the world, this progress is being stymied. We are all in on this mission. We are doing it by providing entrepreneurs with low-interest loans that enable them to take a business that they have started and scale it to support more people. It has been incredibly successful.
In fact, we are getting to a place now where we are so well-known that the interest in loans has outrun the capital we have available to us. I am going to give a little commercial here. If this is something that strikes near and dear to your heart, the Bettering Human Lives Foundation could use your support today.
We have more opportunity than we have ability to support that opportunity, and man, do I not want to say no to somebody who could help enable that transition and change somebody's life. Please, if that is aligned with your company's mission or your personal mission, please give that some thought. With that, I am going to back up and talk a little bit about Liberty again.
I said that was our mission, that we were out to better human lives, first of all, inside of our company and ultimately inside the community and then for those abroad. I have talked a little bit about how important we view energy, and we have, I would argue, preached from the podium loudly and proudly about the importance of oil and gas and the role that it is going to play in that.
We will never shy away from that conversation. As we think about what that has meant for Liberty, the story has been quite tremendous. We believe that if you hired great people, set them free to accomplish amazing things, that the rest would take care of itself. We have been a very culture-focused company since the beginning, and the story has been nothing short of phenomenal in the 15 years that we have been in existence.
We have grown from a company that started in a tent in North Dakota with Chris and Jim at the helm to now a company 6,000 people big that works across North America in all the major oil and gas platforms that for the last 10 years running has been the number one ranked provider in oil field services, according to the EnergyPoint Research Customer Satisfaction Survey, that has taken the knowledge we have grown in oil field services now and expanded that to help support the hyperscalers as they seek to put compute to work to help better our lives through the use of artificial intelligence.
We've grown to be a very different organization than we were when we started there, but we've done that through a focus on a couple of key things that I really want to spend a little bit of time talking about as I jump through this. We won't have time to touch on all of this. The rest of the slide deck you can find online. It was probably published sometime today.
But I'm going to hit on a few things that I think are pretty important. Execution is absolutely critical. And people always said when we got into the oilfield services business that this was a commoditized business. I would argue that there's no such thing as a commoditized business when people are involved. People are the ultimate differentiator.
You experience that when you come to a place like The Westin, when you check in at a hotel, when you go to a restaurant to enjoy a meal. The people who are involved in that are what ultimately make that experience a special one for you. They differentiate the quality of the food, the service that you get, the warm smile you get when you show up.
Those are the things that have you remember the place that you visited. And that's true regardless of what you're doing. If you are in the service business, people are the ultimate differentiator. We have never, ever lost focus on that. People said culture wasn't scalable. I disagree with that. I think we've demonstrated otherwise. But it's important that we continue to deliver on that promise as well.
We promised our employees that we were building a generational company, that we were going to build something that not only could they live out their careers in, but ultimately their kids could come to work in. I'm not going to stand here and tell you that I believe we'll be using oil and gas forever and ever.
Ultimately, we will displace those as energy sources. While that's an important part of our business and supports a meaningful number of jobs today, I think we will have to grow to stay flat in that business, if I'm being perfectly honest with you. We have been victims of our own success. We continue to get more and more efficient in oil field services. When Liberty started 15 years ago, there were 450 frac crews running in North America.
We sit here today at record oil and natural gas production with 200 frac crews running in North America. There were 1,800 rigs drilling when we started Liberty. Today, we run with a third of that to deliver, again, record production. It is phenomenal what we have accomplished as an industry. It is truly something to celebrate.
But it also means that as we think about the business going forward, our ability to have that continue to be a growing business to offer our employees long-term growth trajectory and maybe a path for their kids to come and work at Liberty meant we had to think about other things we could be great at. That said, we always said we were never going to be jack of all trades, but instead master of one. We made a couple of transformational acquisitions over the course of Liberty's history.
Number one was C&J. When they went bankrupt in the 2015/2016 downturn, we bought their U.S. assets, which included coil tubing and cementing. We made a conscious decision not to keep coil tubing and cementing. We believed them to be dilutive to what we were aiming to be great at, which was frac.
When we did the SLB transaction, again, entirely focused on what we were great at, which was frac. As we started to think about another business we could be great at, what would that be? What was it that we had built meaningful expertise in that we could ultimately add into the Liberty platform that would not be dilutive to where we were coming from, but would leverage the skills, capabilities, technical expertise we had built up and allow us to be great at a couple of things?
In a little bit of a right place at the right time kind of thing, we found the power generation business. We had gotten into power generation for a reason, for a very specific reason. When you aim to deliver excellence in the field, you want control over the pieces of the puzzle that go into that. In the frac world, there were a few things that could bring you to a screeching halt.
Number one was lack of access to water, number two was lack of access to fuel or energy, and maybe number three, the chemical and sand that had to go in there. If you took care of all of those things, then you were going to be fine.
As we started thinking about a transition to electric fleets, the idea that somebody else might be in charge of our energy supply did not sit well with us. We made a very conscious decision to vertically integrate ourselves in power generation. For the last five, six years now, we have been running power generation in the field.
We run five mobile power generation plants that generate 25 MW- 30 MW of electricity on a location, in remote environments with a fuel supply that we deliver to them to ensure that our electric fleets are capable of running. We built up expertise in that world, and as this power generation opportunity came along, allowed us an opportunity to step into a different business, and that was the business of power generation, specifically supported by this massive growth in data centers.
Why am I excited about AI? I talked about that a little bit. If we're going to go into the power generation business, I also want to be a strong believer in the customer of that business. I want to know that there is long-term demand for compute, for tokens. But I've seen firsthand what that has done inside of our organization. We use AI in a number of different places now. It started in logistics.
We move more than 20 million tons of sand at Liberty on an annual basis. That's more than 1 million truckloads of sand that we have to ensure start at the right place and end up at the right place and never, ever impede our frac fleet's ability to continue to execute at the highest level. You can appreciate the scale of that problem.
We did that with people, of course, with a lot of people and a lot of mind share dedicated to making sure that those trucks were flowing as optimally as possible. While the people were very, very good at that, when you train a large language model to achieve that same outcome with the amount of data available to it that it can process in real time, you see meaningful impact as a result of that. We reduced the number of trucks that we required to deliver all of that sand by 35% with the deployment of AI.
That is significant for us, of course, but it is also significant for the truck driver. You can imagine that while we reduced the number of trucks by 35%, that means they each got to haul more sand. They basically run a fixed cost business.
They own a really expensive truck, and aside from the cost of fuel, their cost basis is basically fixed. So if they get to make three trips a day instead of two trips a day and they get paid for one extra trip, there is a meaningful amount of fall through in that.
So we make a trucker's life better by doing that. We have done it for energy consumption and emissions reduction. We have done it for equipment optimization. We have an AI platform that oversees all of our rotating equipment. We stream about 2 billion data points today into The Hive, and it is a LLM that oversees all of that data.
Of course, it has been trained with every problem we have ever had on an engine or transmission or power end, and it can find far faster than any human can in that data stream a potential event that is about to happen to an engine. It can see the precursor to what would have been a major maintenance event before it becomes a major maintenance event.
We have seen the longevity of components in our world, think engines, transmissions, and power ends, climb by as much as 100% since we have deployed an AI model that oversees that maintenance. We are on the way to an agentic AI model that will execute a frack job for us. Today, if you go to a frack location, you will see a human running the pumps, a human running the blender, a supervisory team overseeing that.
We are on test now on probably a third of our fleets on an agentic AI model, so one that learns from the decisions it makes that will execute all of the frack jobs going forward. It will make the best possible decisions around how to run that pump to maximize the energy efficiency of the assets out there to put the best possible job in the ground. It will do that with the benefit of all of the knowledge we have built up over the last 15 years and all of the knowledge our customers have built up over the last 15 years. AI is a big deal for us.
We have seen firsthand the economic impact. I am a firm believer that it is going to play a big, big role in our world over the coming years. That's why I am a big believer in building a power business that goes around that. I want to spend a little bit of time on the power business now because, of course, this is the new shiny toy inside the Liberty world.
The frack business, I hope you understand from the comments I have made earlier, I believe has a long runway in front of it and is something that we are going to be doing for a long, long time. This is a new piece to our world. When we decided to enter the power generation business, the question was, could we build a differential business. Could we build something that would stand apart from everybody else
Just like in oilfield services, despite everybody saying that's going to be commoditized, I too believe that in the power generation business, we can build a business that stands apart. We have been very intentional about that over the last number of years as we have worked our way into this world. We have worked our way towards a business that offers the most seamless solution to a hyperscaler as they seek to get from idea to compute in as short a timeframe as possible.
Of course, speed is of the essence today. They are looking to put compute to work as quickly as possible and have realized over the last 12 months that the grid is not going to aid them in that effort, that it has to come from elsewhere
We decided very consciously to enter into this power as a service business to build up a robust range of capabilities that allow us to deliver this seamless service and to do so delivering strong returns inside of our business. Oilfield services is a lumpy business. We have a 23% cash return on capital invested over the last 15 years. That's a low of -2% and a high of 44% or 45%. It goes up and down. It's not for the [faint of alone].
That's done by a combination of generation and a sophisticated balance of plant system to help navigate that. We have built that load management capability. We have built a grid interaction capability. We are now a licensed power producer in both PJM and ERCOT. We believe the grid brings benefits to the table. It won't displace what we do
We will be the primary power provider. You all hear the news today. You know what the community backlash sounds like. The hyperscalers have now recognized the way to a community's heart is to promise that not only are you bringing all the power that you need, but also some power to help them lower their power prices.
That you are going to do so with technology that brings the best possible emissions profile, that reduces water impact, and all of those other concerns that are out there. We have worked hard to build all of that into our business. Ultimately, that means that we can tell the story that we will be a beneficiary to the grid, not a detractor from the grid over time. That's important as we step forward.
Just like in oilfield services, we had to navigate a challenging community engagement exercise over the last 15 years. The hyperscalers are in that same place now. The story they are able to tell, aided by their partners who bring the right technology and other solutions to the table, is critical to the success of this. I assure you, this is something we have to be successful at.
You heard Secretary Wright, I think maybe a number of months ago, describe this as the next Manhattan Project. This is a race we cannot afford to lose. If we do not do it right, it is a race we will lose. Like we did in oil and gas, we have worked hard to make sure that we are a provider that brings the right solutions to the table.
I am going to jump past a couple of these things just to talk about one last set of initiatives, which is really how the business is evolving. We have talked publicly about deploying 3 GW of power by 2029, and we are well on our path to do that. We have line of sight to all of that inbound. We built a number of joint ventures that allow us to bring breadth of capability to the table.
The most recent of those with PowerBridge, who is a big developer of sites down in West Texas, and also with SLB, who builds modular infrastructure for inside the server hall to partner with the modular infrastructure we build outside. We have made a public announcement around some ESAs that will be coming. We said we will announce more than 500 MW of Energy Service Agreements before the end of the year.
We already have a couple of big public partnerships out there, Vantage, likely for a site up in Wyoming for 400 MW and some others coming over and above that. Then a path to some next-generation technologies as well. Our customers all want their emission stack to evolve over time, and it is critical that we have a pathway to do that.
The partnerships with Oklo and Fervo, amongst others, allow us to start with natural gas fire generation, which makes great sense from a time to market standpoint as they seek rapid speed to generation. But tomorrow as the grid arrives and going beyond that, as we introduce more sophisticated technologies to the energy stack with the goal of helping them meet their stated objectives publicly. As much as I might disagree with net zero, that is something that they talk proudly about.
We are going to stand alongside them with the right technology to help make that happen. With that, I am going to wrap things up. I am at time, but I think we have Q&A time after this in another room. Thanks very much for your time this afternoon. I appreciate it. It is a pleasure to be with you.