Are we ready to roll? Yeah, I think we're good to start. Okay, so, welcome back, everyone, and, thanks for joining us. And, Mike, thanks for joining us on stage. Mike Fries-
Thanks for having me.
CEO of Liberty Global. As we discussed just offline, huge amount going on for Liberty Global and in the broader space. We've had these conversations actually, in person last year in the U.S. and-
Right
... virtually over the last few years, talking about this gap between public and private valuations and trying to unlock or crystallize value of your assets.
Right.
Clearly, you're doing a lot about that at the moment, but how would you view that gap now between public and private valuations?
It's still too big. You'd expect me to say that, but even with our stock up 20% in the last six months or so, it's a pretty big gap to the average analyst price target, and a sizable gap to where we think value resides. If you look at the sum of the parts that we would create, maybe 40% to 50% gap. And it's, so the only thing that's changed, the gap is still there. What's changed is perhaps our sense of urgency, and you know, as we've articulated through our calls, the things that we're doing are pretty tangible and concrete. So we're not just talking about it, we're tackling it, I guess I would say, and that's what you want us to be doing. I mean, you could look at it a lot of different ways.
You know, there are some people who say the value of our cash and the value of our ventures platform equals our market cap, which means that $25 billion of aggregate revenue, $9 billion of EBITDA, $3.8 billion of operating free cash flow valued at zero. So you're getting the telco assets that we own for free. That's one way to look at it. It all depends on how you approach it, but we're, you know, doing all the things we should be doing. The Sunrise spin, which I'm sure we'll talk about, and if you don't know about, we are spinning off 100% of our Swiss subsidiary to Liberty Global shareholders. That transaction is likely to occur, you know, early, mid-November. We just had the Capital Markets Day, I think, last Monday.
Yeah
Which was well attended. In fact, the team's out on the road this week and last week. You know, the story there is a straightforward one. You're talking about, we think, the best telecom asset in arguably the most attractive telecom market in Europe's richest country. So it's got a you know, a lot of key elements to it that make it exciting and attractive. We can talk about Switzerland. I'm sure we will. I don't know where you have the stock, but most analysts have it around $10 a share. What that means is, if we're a 20-dollar stock today, in November, we'll hand you a $10 dividend of a Swisscom share.
And we would argue today there's no value in our stock for these assets, so half our market cap could be in this one stock. Some analysts are as high as $12 a share on a fully distributed basis. So, you know, it's almost a $4 billion dividend, tax-free, to our shareholders happening later this year. So these kinds of things, which not many telcos are up here talking about. I'm sure they're talking about what we'll talk about, ARPUs and headwinds, and regulators, and mergers. You know, we're actually quite a few things happening on the broader financial engineering side to try to bridge the gap that you referenced there.
Yeah, I mean, there's operational structural stuff that's going on, and there's financial structural stuff that's going on, and Sunrise is front and center for us. So, you've alluded to why you're doing the spin-off, right?
Right.
i.e., this valuation gap. But could you give us the key reasons why spin-off is the approach you're taking with Sunrise in particular?
A couple reasons. One, we can do it tax-free. I think that's a big advantage for investors. Two, it's an asset that is ready to trade, meaning it was a public company when we bought it, so there's a history to Sunrise in the Swiss market. It's an attractive pure play in the Swiss market. Swiss investors want to own it. We think that the story, unlike, you know, our story, has been really from the beginning of time, is really a dividend and free cash flow story, which Swiss investors, European investors get.
Mm.
The business is gonna, you know, it's already promised a CHF 240 million dividend on CHF 370 million of free cash flow. So put any yield you want on that. You can, you know... Don't put- If you put the Swisscom, then you'll get to our stock price.
Yeah.
But take, you know, 8% to 10% free cash dividend yield, you're gonna get to a pretty attractive number relative to where we trade. So it's just too easy in a sense. And it has all those elements. And the dividend will also be tax-advantaged for Europeans and Swiss holders. So unlike the Swisscom dividend, where you pay tax, you will not pay withholding tax on this. We have capital allowances that have built up. So there's just some really interesting elements that make trading in Switzerland with this asset a unique opportunity to, you know, dividend it, gift it to our shareholders, rather than have it sit inside the complex, as I started off with, getting no value. So it's that simple.
Yeah, and we'll come back to Switzerland, and certainly, as you mentioned, the Free Cash Flow generation, like if you put it, kind of almost any yield that any telco is trading on-
Yeah
... gets you to a huge amount of upside. So, so clearly there's some skepticism for now on that, and, when it's spun off, we'll see, hopefully, that- ... that bridged. There is no such thing as a template for a Liberty Global asset, right? They're all very different and have unique opportunities and hurdles to get over. But do you think spin-off is a route to further value crystallization across the broader portfolio? Or-
Okay, if anyone... I don't recognize many people in here, but if you followed the Liberty story, if you followed John Malone for 40 years, 50 years, almost everything he's been involved with has been spun out. I was spun out of Liberty Media. We spun out Latin America, we're spinning out Switzerland. Now, his philosophy, which I agree with, is that sometimes businesses are better off on their own. They might find a better investor base, better valuation, et cetera. So, spin-offs are a natural thing in our DNA.
This is not unusual for us to do this. It's something the Liberty family of companies, it does regularly, and so I would put that out there, first of all, it's not unusual. But I think in this case, and perhaps in other cases, it is a really efficient way to not just recognize value, but to reward investors by giving them that value, handing it to you, right? I mean, I can tell you what it's worth all day long. If you don't put it in my stock price, it ain't gonna be there.
Yeah.
If I hand it to you, and it's now in your hands, it's worth what you say it's worth, and what the market says it's worth, then you'll decide if you're gonna keep it or hedge it, or buy more of it. I think that's a healthy thing to do, and not every asset fits that description, but others might likely fit that description as well.
Yeah, I mean, as you said, you know, the Swiss macro backdrop and market structure backdrop is really supportive.
Yeah.
What do you think would be the next closest to that within the Liberty Global, if you don't mind to-
Hard to say. I mean, we've talked about a few things on our year-end earnings call. We talked about some interesting opportunities in the Benelux region, where we're in Holland and Belgium. There are some things that have to happen before that looks probable or interesting. But it's... I mean, everything, we're looking at everything with that point of view, right? How can we recognize and realize value, and if possible, distribute that value. So everything's on the- everything's, you know, being looked at in that regard. I don't want to get into details-
No, no, no.
... about which is, what's next, what's not next. Yeah.
But I guess one of the underlying features of that thinking is that the benefits of being part of a group, the economies of scale aren't as large as they were, or-
I'd say two things to that, and I think every European telco will stand up here and tell you that the benefits of being part of a group working across Europe are not fantastic. You know, maybe Tim would be the only one to say he loves it. But I mean, you know, Vodafone's disassembling. You know, everybody has shrunk the portfolio because cross-border synergies in Europe aren't that great.
Mm.
And the Draghi report, which if you haven't read, I encourage you to read, you know, tells you why that is. Because spectrum policies aren't the same, because national regulators don't agree with other national regulators, and there's little about each market that is the same. So it's difficult to realize synergies. Now, in our case, our central group is still a significant provider of services, scale-based services, to Vodafone, to Deutsche Telekom, to Sunrise. So whatever we're doing at the center that has value in terms of, connectivity platforms, entertainment platforms, financial services, we will continue to do those things-
That's right
... for Sunrise. And we still do those things for Vodafone, even though they bought those assets from us four or five years ago-
Yeah
... and other operators. So we're still scaling our central platform where it makes sense, and we're still offering the, those scale-based benefits if operators want them. So there's we kind of have the best of both worlds.
So you brought it up, so I might as well ask a question about it, about the Draghi comments.
Yeah.
We've had false dawns in the past in the sector, where there've been positive comments from authorities, but they've never actually manifested into something-
Yeah
... genuinely positive. What's your take on, on what he's been saying in terms of actual routes to higher returns in the broader sector?
I'm optimistic for a few reasons. If you haven't read it, it's worth a read. You don't have to read the whole thing, but you can get the, there's a summary of it. But his basic premise is this: Europe is in bad shape, for all the reasons that he articulates, and they're good reasons, and they make a lot of sense. The lack of industrial policy, inability to have commonality across financial, regulatory, policy you know, factors, and really just happy talk when it comes to one big market. It's just happy talk. It's not really one big market.
Mm.
And so I think it's a call to action, and one of the many things he says is, in the telecom sector in particular, this lack of- this approach to punishing telcos for ten, fifteen, twenty years, because we've all been doing it. You're too young to remember, perhaps, the early days, but-
Very kind.
... it has been a decade or more of punishment, like, not encouragement, punishment, and that has obviously put the entire sector in a place where, you know, it can't invest, it can't innovate, and as a result, Europe will fall behind. It has already fallen behind, whether it's big tech or anything else. And so his, his call to action, and telco is just one of a dozen sectors he identifies, is that regulators need to start looking at these industries differently.
His advice to the CMA would be ex ante regulation is, is absurd, to try to pretend what might happen. Let's let it happen, and, and after the fact, come back and fix it if there's an issue, if they don't agree or do the things you want to say. And by the way, there's an opening for that in this market with the CMA, I think.
So it's very positive, encouraging. And everything we're learning, you know, von der Leyen came out today with all the, you know, with her team, and it looks like that will be the industrial policy that people are asked to build a portfolio and a platform around. It's encouraging. I think it's, on balance, very positive. Now, you said it earlier, let's see, because this is not the first time somebody said something positive and nothing happened.
Yeah.
But it's certainly encouraging to have it happen at that level.
There's a lot of things that are slightly positive coming out at the same time, though, right? We've had the deregulation of fiber, you know. You may, sort of look too young to remember these things, but doing the sector for nineteen years, we haven't had any positive regulatory change until the last five-
Right
... really.
Fair enough, yeah.
And so, and then, you know, like London buses, a few come along. I wonder if you could maybe just lastly before we move on to the UK market specifically, just comment on or, or share any comments you feel you can share on the UK CMA?
... I think there's an opening. You know, I know it's easy, and convenient, and clever to, you know, write an article that it's all falling apart. But if you read the, you know, their statements closely, which I'm sure you all have, they have opened the door to behavioral remedies, which is the first time, in my experience, that's ever happened here. So if they're honest about that.
Well, let me say it differently. If they're sincere about those potential behavioral remedies, and the parties walk through that door, I think there's a chance. We think the deal should happen. Of course, we've agreed with the MergerCo, the things that we needed to see: spectrum reallocation and our mobile networks getting sorted out. But we think it's healthy and smart for markets like this to consolidate.
We do not think it'll result in any negative implications for consumers. It's already so inexpensive. If you look at Switzerland or the U.S., to be to get mobile in this market, prices are extremely low. I don't. They're too low, let's be honest. And they'll probably keep going lower 'cause there's a bunch of us still competing, and there's a dozen MVNOs, and the you know, two MNOs coming together is not gonna make a material difference.
Yeah.
I think it should happen. I think it will happen. You know, that's my view.
No, I agree. It doesn't create pricing power going from four to three, but can lead to higher returns, hopefully. Maybe if you look at the UK, the preface is that you're building out fiber and, in that process. What's also going on in the market is this fiber network build-out from the altnets. So I wonder if you could talk about what's going on with the altnets right now in terms of their build-out speeds?
Mm.
Do you see that slowing, and how you're seeing that actually impact the market dynamics.
Yeah, well, it's definitely slowing. And that's not hard to discern. They talk publicly about their own numbers. I think they're building 40% less than they did a year ago.
Mm.
You also have leading indicators in terms of permits, opening of permits, and that looks like also a 45%-50% decline. But that shouldn't be surprising. I mean, capital is not unlimited.
Mm.
People, you know, business plans have not been hit, so what happens? You know, people pull back. So I think this was all predicted. I don't think it's surprising and shouldn't be surprising. So that's how we see it, and, you know, we're still looking at the opportunities for consolidation, as you'd expect us to, but that's hard because psychologically, people aren't there yet. You know, they're still... You know, we look at acquisitions on the basis of three things: Where did you build? What did you build?
Mm.
How much did you spend? When you look at those three things, it's hard to sit down from somebody who's got two thousand a home in it, and they built all on top of you, and they didn't build a great plan to begin with.
Yeah.
You say to them: "Well, I'll pay you what it would cost me to build." And they're like: "Well, wait a minute." So it's a bit tricky. We've done one deal, a good deal, which is gonna exceed our expectations, and I think this will all sort itself out over time. Hard to predict how long that'll be. And ultimately, there'll be two big networks, ours and Openreach, right? We'll get to 21 to 23 million homes.
They'll be at, you know, their number. And, and then you'll have some regional and some other operators. I mean, Greg gets upset with me every time I don't mention CityFibre, so will they be around? Maybe. We'll see. I mean, the Sky deal, we can talk about it. It looks like a step in the right direction for them. But it will rationalize, and it needs to rationalize.
Yeah.
It's not really impacting us in any material way. You know, our fixed business is really strong here in this market, which is exciting to be able to sit up here and say. Our ARPUs are growing 3%, service revenue is 4%. You know, we've got 40% market share where we have footprint. 40%.
Yeah.
We're bigger than BT. I think they're 33 or something. So we're the biggest broadband operator in the markets, you know, and our average customer is getting 500 Mbps today. Average. So, you know, we're already in the speed game, and we can sell a gig everywhere. I'm not suggesting that fiber isn't real, and it's not gonna change our strategies. That's one of the reasons that we're building fiber.
Yeah.
It's why we've announced our plans, so.
You mentioned the CityFibre-Sky deal, so given you mentioned-
Yeah.
I mean, what are your thoughts on that? For what it's worth, BT, we had BT.
Yeah
... on stage earlier today, and their view is that something like this was always gonna happen, and actually it's quite good going into the regulatory update in 2026 to actually show there's some competition.
Yeah.
It'd be good to get your thoughts.
I think it's a smart, no-regrets move for Sky. I think it was a desperate move for CityFibre, and I'm not gonna tell you why I think that. I'm not. I don't have inside details. But I think it was a pretty good deal for Sky. Now, what will they do with it? TBD. I mean, you know, will they. It's to our understanding, and we don't have any details, is it's probably not exclusive, and there's probably not volume commitment, so all those customers are contestable for BT or anybody else.
Yeah.
But, you know, they've reset the wholesale market pricing. I'm sure, I haven't seen it, but I'm guessing they've reset expectations on wholesale rates.
Yeah.
You know, they found their way into some fiber homes where BT hasn't built yet, and as you just said, they've signaled to the market they're open for business.
Yeah.
So I think it's a net positive for all of us. I don't really see any significant negatives there.
And then also, to come back to the comments about your three criteria for actually-
Yeah
buying altnets, there's two hopefully interesting questions from that. One is, I guess we're all trying to work out the buy versus build strategy for you guys. So-
Yeah.
Can you give us any sense as to the balance of that? Is it gonna be by far mainly build, or is it, or could it be more balanced than that?
Our business plan is entirely built.
Yeah.
Or again, anything inorganic is gravy. So, you know, if you look at Nexfibre , which is fully funded, you know, the plan is 5 to 7 million homes, greenfield homes, partners with the French infra firm. That's all organic. And then the upgrade of Virgin Media, which, you know, I heard that Allison said they're building fiber cheaper than anyone else, not true.
We're upgrading for GBP 100 to 150 per home, so it's less. And I'm not sure how she's defining her number, but ours is less, because we're fully ducted as well. So we're upgrading the 16 million, and we're, you know, 4 million into that. So, you know, we've got 12 million HFC, 4 million fiber, and that's growing every day.
We're building out greenfield to another five to seven, and that's costing us, you know, GBP 500 to 600 a home where we have no infrastructure. So that's obviously, you know, the maximum it should cost to build fiber. If we get all that done, we, you know, without any acquisitions, that's fine. You know, that's the way. We haven't planned on any.
Just a couple more questions on the UK, and then we'll shift to other-
Sure
... other markets. What happened with cable when cable rollout didn't work out in the late 1990s is it was sold on the cheap, and then the cable buyers, including yourselves, were able to price on the cheap to the consumer, and obviously, we, that brought down pricing levels. What do you think is the incentive for alt nets to remain rational through this consolidation phase and given they're struggling to make returns on their investments?
Listen, you know, I've never seen irrational behavior yield a return.
Hmm.
So I guess on one hand, it would be just their hope for a return of capital. You know, it would seem crazy to me if they lower prices to a point where there's no return for them or anybody else. That doesn't get them their exit or their growth or their financing. So that's it. Now, will that happen in pockets? Perhaps. But you know, we're already seeing pricing in that gig range kind of gravitate. It's not that different, really. Everyone's in the same ballpark at a gig.
Yeah.
So we'll see how that unfolds.
Okay, and then just lastly, on the UK, I think you're doing a NetCo/ServCo split. I wonder if you could just talk through the decision behind that strategy and how you timelines to that actually.
Yeah. Well, I mean, we're not the first group in Europe or anywhere to think about delayering. I'm sure you talked to Telefónica or anybody else. It's a common approach, but why are we thinking about that? There's a couple reasons. Number one, it's clear that our networks are undervalued and underutilized. That's just a flat statement that can't be argued with. The networks have value, but they're undervalued and underutilized.
So if you can take those networks, invest in them, move them aside, and have them focus investor attention and our own attention on that fiber asset, and more importantly, bring more utilization to that asset, that's an accretive step. So it's about focusing investors on the value of the asset. It's about raising capital to accelerate both the upgrade and the migration of customers to the asset.
It's about generating a new source of revenue on the asset. It's also beneficial to your core B2C and B2B businesses, so there's a logic. Does it have to happen in every instance? No. In our case, we're still working through the details of what that might look like, but it's not changing our basic strategy around fiber. It's just whether we put it into a separate entity or whether we keep it integrated.
In Ireland, we're fully integrated. In Ireland, we have Vodafone and Sky using our fiber network, paying us wholesale fees, fully integrated to the OpCo. So it can be done either way, but in this market, there's enough good reasons to explore a NetCo that that's where we're, that's what we're doing.
And bringing on a partner, the decision on that is-
Could do that.
... like six to twelve?
No timing, really.
No timing.
I mean, we think this is a 2025 event, as I said on our last call anyhow.
Yeah.
No, no real timing.
Okay, cool. And just lastly, the ServCo trends, obviously, they're in greater focus-
Yeah
... if there's a split. I guess ServCo trends across Europe from a cable perspective, well, a broader perspective, have been muted. So how do you see in terms of the outlook for your UK ServCo?
Look, it's a tough market. If anybody's sat up here and said they're, "Woo-hoo, we're kicking ass," then they're lying to you. It's not true, because the fixed business for, you know, for change, is outperforming. So we're growing fixed ARPUs, we're driving fixed service revenues, we're holding market share. So the fixed bit, you know, we're keeping more of the price increases, we're doing a better job of retention.
The mobile business, sadly, is we're underperforming in a soft market. And, you know, there's a lot of reasons for that, but Lutz and the team are squarely focused on investing in the network. We've got some big, you know, product launches with the new iPhone and new Pixel phone.
So fourth quarter, we're trying to regain some momentum in the handset and mobile business, and I think they're set up to do that. But it's been a tough year for mobile, and I, you know, I'm sure BT. I know BT has said the same thing. And Marc Allera, I think, said it's the toughest year in his twenty-five years. So we're not alone in sensing this. It's, you know, with the cost of living crisis lingering, people are focused on hanging on to handsets, lowering prices, and that's difficult for handset volume and churn, so.
And have you seen any change in competitive intensity there?
Not really. No, I mean, we'll see what the fourth quarter brings. It's really all about the fourth quarter.
Okay. So maybe if we move on to Switzerland. I think you've well articulated why Switzerland's a good backdrop for a spin-off, and you like the market backdrop. Can you just talk through the competitive landscape? Because I think at the CMD you communicated it as a great market structure, as in three players. But I guess part of the fixed broadband market structure is a subscale third player, a Salt. So how do you think the market dynamics are evolving post the Salt, you know, the Salt post deal and-
Yeah, well, when you contrast the Swiss market to, let's say, the UK market, it's kind of night and day. It is a two-and-a-half player market, three-player market.
Yeah.
And people with ARPUs that are two X this market, right? So we're starting with high ARPUs and relatively rational pricing, where flanker brands, and we have the biggest digital flanker brand in the market, are 10% to 15% cheaper, not 80% or 75% cheaper. So pretty rational market, and what Sunrise has is three interesting growth engines. Number 1, the premium brand, Sunrise, where you know, Roger Federer is our ambassador, and the Swiss ski team, we support them.
You know, it has just all the energy, right? And we have this great loyalty program, where it's really a winner, and that we think will keep driving growth in that with innovation. The flanker brand, Yallo, was born digital, is digital, 70% of sales are digital, and is in that kind of smart shopper segment.
It has its own identity, its own growth, and potential. And the B2B sector, if you look at it, we've got 20% market share. That's, you know, and it's a two-player market. There's something to get, and more importantly, the ICT sector in Switzerland is nine times bigger than the core connectivity sector, and we got nothing there, so look, you know, you got B2B opportunity, you got the flanker brand covering your, you know, your different segments and the premium brand. All those things should drive relatively stable, positive growth, but the real story is about free cash flow and dividends.
Yeah.
I mean, we've said we're gonna continue to, you know, in a declining CapEx curve, 15%, 16% to 17%, going to 15%, which is pretty low. We can keep generating the free cash flow, keep paying the dividends that we want, keep de-levering the business from four and a half to three and a half, and, you know, that becomes a nice, you know, positive, virtuous circle there in that marketplace. The stock, you know, has a lot of room.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Maybe let's just come back to the free cash. We just had one other question on the kind of top-line growth or the growth outlook for the market. So I think you may have answered this, but maybe let's ask specifically. So Swisscom says its Swiss revenues can't grow because Salt has such a great wholesale contract on its own, on your fiber wholesale contract. You also have a pretty good fiber wholesale contract. It's not absolutely clear to us that it's identical to Salt's, but I'd guess it's pretty close.
Mm-hmm.
And question number one, I guess it's pretty close, and then question two is, in terms of your growth outlook, which you laid out in the CMD, what do you think the difference is between Sunrise's growth outlook and Swisscom's flat outlook?
I think, you know, I don't know what Swisscom's forecasts are. I doubt we're looking to grow materially faster than they are. The markets, these are, you know, big, healthy markets that will grow modestly, but if you're growing with the market, there's an opportunity to drive margin.
Mm.
You know, we've got our synergies largely behind us. We've got a lot of positive things happening in OpEx and CapEx. So I think the focus is free cash flow. You wanna be growing, you wanna stay stable, you wanna steal share from the incumbent, and we will, but it's all about that bottom line.
Yeah
... if you will. You were asking a question about networks? I wanna be sure I got-
Yeah, it's just that wholesale, the wholesale deal. It feels-
Well, we haven't disclosed the details of it-
Yeah
... but remember, 55%, well, we reach almost 60% of the country with HFC, which is a great platform.
Yeah.
Right? We're already at two and a half gig everywhere. So you call us up, half the people who call us up and want service, we, we service with HFC up to two and a half gig. And so I think that stays relatively the same, and where we need fiber, we just rent it.
Yeah.
And so we also have 75% coverage of fixed wireless access at 100 Mbps. So we've got it all in that market, and that hybrid approach is gonna, I think, allow us to avoid any big CapEx moments going forward while we drive, you know, while we slowly steal share from an incumbent with 60% of it, you know? And over time, it's getting distracted in Italy, and what's the government gonna do with their stake? I mean, it's setting up nicely.
That's where we're getting to. Like, as you say, CapEx visibility and that free cash flow, which is ultimately the question. But it is, like, quite unique. Every cable market seems to be unique, but in this market, it seems like, the route to fiber, the route to upgrading the network is more likely to be through rental than building out your own fiber.
Awesome. Yeah.
Is that how-
Yes.
Is that how you see things going?
Yes, and there's a couple reasons for that. You know, 45% of the base was already on Swisscom's network when we bought Sunrise.
Yeah.
We've moved them over where we can, and we continue to move them over to get rid of the Sunrise, you know, the Sun-Swisscom wholesale fee. But as you've indicated, you've implied it's a good deal. It's a pretty good deal, and it's allowing us to be competitive where we need to be, but we're pushing the equation, you know, well with our own network, too. By the way, DOCSIS 4 is real, okay? I mean, the entire, you know, 70 million or more cable homes will go DOCSIS 4 in America. It's a real technology. We don't talk about it here in Europe, because everybody's abandoned the idea of it.
Mm
... but, you know, it's real, and it can be done much more cost-effectively than anything. So we have options there, which is the good thing, and we'll make the decisions that optimize Free Cash Flow.
Yeah. So I think if we come to a conclusion on Switzerland, you've kind of articulated the growth outlook, market structure, et cetera, and the B2B growth outlook in particular, the CapEx visibility. If we were to just say, hypothetically, the market's obviously not pricing that in now, in terms of looking at Liberty shares, although that may change, hopefully changes by the end of this year. Where's the risk factor, do you think, in terms of your free cash flow guide? Because as you say, that's critical.
In Switzerland?
Yeah, in Switzerland.
Well-
Upside or downside.
Yeah, I think the upside is we do a better job on the top line, on growth. We do a better job on OpEx efficiencies. You know, we're borrowing at 3%+ interest rates, so while we are de-levering. You know, if we keep de-levering, that'll come down, but it's a pretty cheap structure today. You know, so I do think there's, you know, there are ways to just fine-tune it, but our forecasts are pretty modest. So we said $360 to 370 million of free cash flow this year, growing to $410 million in three years. We're not trying to hit the ball out of the park.
We're trying to demonstrate that we can predictably distribute 70% of that free cash flow to investors in the form of a dividend, in exchange for a reasonable dividend yield, which should get us to a price that's well in excess of where our stock's trading. You know, so I mean, it's an obvious set of steps to take. Longer term, we will see how the market prices it. It. I mean, if you're a Liberty Global shareholder, and you end up with a bunch of Sunrise shares, it's gonna be choppy.
Mm.
We think 25% to 30% of shareholders will just say, "Not for me." So who wants to own this? And, you know, we're gonna have ADRs, unfortunately, to begin with, and then... So it's gonna be an interesting six to nine months of rotation-
Yeah
... as our investors, who may or may not wanna own the Swiss shares, find new investors who may wanna own those Swiss shares. So, but I think longer term is the real story.
VodafoneZiggo is obviously just shifting, you know, market now. It's obviously not an un-complex business either, in terms of leverage, et cetera, but it has, over previous years, generated strong growth. You know, Free Cash Flow growth and Free Cash Flow generation. Last recent quarters, the customer trends have been a bit more mixed than the Free Cash Flow. There are some headwinds. What's your outlook in terms of what can improve that, those trends, and how do you think about that?
That business, listen, that's a rational market.
Yeah.
The incumbent is quite strong. We have the largest broadband base in the market, bigger than KPN's, but KPN's are really good at what they do, that's for sure, and the only two altnets in the market aren't overbuilding each other. So it's a pretty rational market, and we're finding that even though we have HFC everywhere, nobody's switching off our network to for fiber because it's fiber, it's because it's cheaper. So the real issue is, can we grow with the market?
Sure
... and hold market share in broadband? Yes or no, and that's the challenge, and we're doing that in many ways, one of which is we have great content. We have the UEFA football rights. You know, we have the ability to draw people to our platform in ways that we don't do in other markets.
Mm.
We have great quality of service. You know, our NPS is very high. I mean, we've got a lot of things going for us to keep that broadband momentum and convergence, and then bringing down costs, so there's real OpEx efficiency opportunity there. So is it gonna light the world on fire? No, but it's generated four billion of dividends to us and Vodafone since we did the deal.
Yeah.
It's a cash flow machine. It's gonna remain a free cash flow machine. The cash flow might do this, but it's a free cash flow, you know, producing asset with great characteristics in a rational market. We just hired a new CEO, who's doing, you know, so far so good, Stephen van Rooyen, who is familiar to many of you in this market. He's got his work cut out for him, but I have real confidence that he's gonna attack that opportunity in a unique and an interesting way. And we have to figure out what's going on with our partners. I'm just gonna anticipate your next question, you know, because we've been at this seven years with Vodafone, and I love them. I know them.
Margherita is a fantastic partner, and friend, and operator, but, you know, seven years is a long time for a joint venture. So we need to think about where we're going with that business, especially in light of what we started out in the beginning talking about is: You know, what's our end game for some of these businesses? And so it begins with that conversation, which I have nothing to update you on, except to say-
Yeah
... it's a natural one for us to have.
Yeah. The final question on... It was gonna be the next question. The final question was just gonna be on the price rises. You describe it as a rational market, which it is. It's a great market structure. Odido, I think it's being a little bit more-
Yeah
... promotional or aggressive at the moment in mobile and, you know, perhaps in broadband too, and also the price rises we saw this year weren't quite - I mean, obviously a different inflationary backdrop, but still, relative to inflation, weren't quite the price rises we saw last year.
Yeah.
Do you think that your competitive behavior is okay in terms of-
Yeah
... or in line with what you'd anticipated?
You're taking price increases relative to inflation, so I think inflation last year was 10%. We took 8.5%. This year, it's 3.8%.
Mm.
We took two and a half, something like that, and. But we take it on front book, back book. You know, a lot of operators in the market don't do that. So I think it's the right move, and, you know, we wanna keep, stay price competitive. So yeah.
Yeah. Okay, so let's move on to Telenet, and there's loads of potential change going on in that market-
Right
... so it'd be good to if you could help us kind of sift through the range of outcomes, but you've got the potential Digi entry, which is always seemingly a little bit delayed. You've got your own fixed entry in the south, and then you've got this potential fixed infrastructure cost-sharing framework. How does that obscure your visibility on the kind of free cash flow outlook?
Not really, it doesn't. Listen, Digi's already baked in, so if you're not following Belgium, which many of you probably aren't, Digi, which is operational in Portugal and Spain, is ready to launch, which is great. Unlike those other markets, ARPU's are already very, very low in Belgium, and they're renting network, fixed and mobile.
Now, we do assume they're gonna get to a certain market share, but if their motive is to generate any profit, I don't know how they do it by undercutting massively the rest of us. So we'll see what happens. We're a little less vulnerable, I think, than Orange and others, 'cause we're more of a premium product in that marketplace. Moving into the south is all NPS positive, so Base is our Franco brand. We're moving into the south. We're doing well. We're exceeding our expectations on broadband. It's a full telco launch, so that's-
In terms of customer traction-
Yeah
... so far, so good.
Then the deal, this is, again, I'm not sure if you guys follow this, but we are building fiber. We have a NetCo in Belgium, in Flanders. We are gonna build fiber throughout 70% of that country, of that region of the country, and recently we struck a deal with Proximus, the incumbent, at the encouragement of the government, hear me out, who said, you know, "They own a piece of Proximus, obviously. We'd sure like to see you guys work together on fiber.
Yeah.
Whereas we were going to build all that fiber ourselves, now we're gonna build fiber in a portion of the country on our own, in competition with them, and remember, we have 65% utilization with Orange already, great return. In another portion of the country, we're going to divide and conquer, where we'll build here, they'll build there, and we'll wholesale from each other, which means the network, what we build, will be 95% utilization. Pretty good outcome.
NPV positive, needs to get the blessing of the communications regulator, but was already, you know, in the queue. If that happens, it's a real positive outcome, not a lot of CapEx avoidance, but there are no netcos that I'm aware of anywhere in the world with 95% utilization. We can create more of that.
That's a pretty good opportunity.
How do you think that's going to be regulated, or what's the insight?
Oh, the regulators seem to be favorably inclined. They encouraged us to reach this understanding.
Yeah.
So what's the regulation? I mean, the, you know, wholesale rates were already set. I mean, and it's just they're trying to create a rational infrastructure environment, which is terrific.
Yeah
... for us.
And then-
The opposite of this country. Hundred and eighty degrees.
Yeah. Yeah, it's not hard. Yeah. You mentioned ventures when you're building-
Right
... out that kind of portfolio valuation right at the start, so it's a quite good way to end, I think. In terms of your portfolio, so you raised your Formula E stake. How should we think about the cash generation-
Yeah
... of your ventures business, and how do you think-
Real quick, we started the year with $4 billion of cash at the TopCo.
Yeah.
We have no debt at the TopCo, just for those who may not be familiar. By the end of the year, we'll have plus or minus $2 billion of cash, because we're putting $1.7 billion of cash into Switzerland so that we can put it into your pockets, basically, because that lowers the leverage, raises the equity value of the company, and we hand that to you tax-free.
We said we would sell, I think, $500 million to 1 billion. We've sold $650 million of stuff, got another $100 to 150 million to go. So we have opportunities to monetize assets off the FMC telco footprints, and we'll continue to do that, and there are opportunities to do more.
We will also, though, in some of those opportunities, look to invest, like in Formula E, which I think is something for us quite attractive. It grew revenue 20%. There's 400 million people around the world who watch it. It's got some tailwinds around electricity, you know, electric cars. We've been net zero from day zero. This Gen3 Evo car is going to beat an F1 car.
We have Porsche, Jaguars, a lot of good things happening in Formula E. And taking out Warner Bros. was a convenient thing for them. They wanted the capital, and for us, the kind of thing we want to do, if we're going to do anything in this ventures portfolio, is build stuff with global scale, a real platform. So that's exciting to us, and I think we'll. But there are opportunities to generate net cash out of that, because there's a lot of things in there, you know, we don't need to own, so.
Just maybe final question: How are you balancing everything you're doing, you know, the spin-off, whatever you do with ventures, with your broader group buyback? How do you see-
Yeah
... the broader group, group buyback fitting into all of that?
Yeah, well, what we've done this year is announced 10% of the shares. Just to put that into perspective, because I don't know who's in the room, that will bring us close to $15 billion of buyback. We have a $7.5 billion market cap, but we bought back $15 billion of stock, not far off the price we're trading in. We had to buy some we bought some in the higher prices, for sure, you know, a little bit higher than where we're trading.
We're down to $350 million shares by year-end from $900 million plus. You know, that to us has been the right move, because the things that we're doing now, that's just, you know, it's a flywheel effect for those who are still shareholders.
You know, it's benefiting all of us. I think the 10% this year, plus or minus $700 million, we're going to hit that number. Are we going to accelerate that? I don't think so. This is a year where shareholders will get a total remuneration of $4 to 4.5 billion. Because it's $700 million of buyback, we call that remuneration, and a $3.5 to 4 billion dividend of Sunrise stock. That's also remuneration. Pretty good year for investors on a $7.5 billion market cap before all that. I think it's a pretty good year for investors. I don't see us raising that buyback this year, but we'll look at next year when we get there.
I think that's a perfect point on which to stop.
Great.
Thanks so much for your time, Mike.
Thanks, everybody. Bye.