Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS)
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Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference

May 9, 2023

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

All right. Good afternoon, everybody. I'm Noah Poponak. I'm the aerospace and defense analyst here at Goldman Sachs. Very happy to have with us for our next presentation, Leidos. With us from the company is Chris Cage, the CFO. Chris, thanks so much for being with us.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Noah, it's great to be here. Thanks for having us out. Always enjoy your conference. Great venue. Good day of meetings. Yeah, happy to cover anything you wanna cover.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Awesome. I think most people in the room and most people listening probably know who you are and what you do, but maybe just for those that don't, and just to kind of kick us off, maybe just a quick overview on who is Leidos, what do you do, where do you sit in the end market?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Sure. Leidos, we closed last year at almost $14.4 billion in revenues, a government technology services company, in a variety of diversified portfolio focused on 3 main areas, our defense solutions business, which includes both services and some certain defense products. We have a civilian agency business that supports a number of important customers like the FAA, TSA, Department of Energy, etc. We have a very exciting health business that also predominantly focused on support to defense and civilian agency customers in the VA and CDC, CMS, etc. You know, diversified like I mentioned. We're, we've been on a growth trajectory and, you know, looking to continue that momentum as we move forward with both growing the top line and the bottom line.

The other exciting news is we just underwent a CEO transition. Our new CEO, Tom Bell, just joined us last week, and we're very excited to, you know, embark under his leadership.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Maybe spend another minute on that.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Sure.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

you know, you spent a lot of time with Roger. We have somebody new at the helm here. I mean, from your perspective, will it sort of be business as usual or anything you guys are talking about doing a little bit differently?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Well, I don't wanna speak for Tom. He's been on the job for, I think today is his fifth official day, but he's been coming up to speed quickly on the company. I mean, first of all, Roger Krone had an exceptional run. I mean, almost nine years as CEO, and the company grew from approximately $5 billion in sales when he first joined to, like I said, 14.4 on its way to $15 billion this year. An excellent run. He added a lot of capabilities over the years through acquisitions and grew and expanded the markets that we're in. Tom comes on board and, you know, Tom has had great success both at Boeing and most recently Rolls-Royce and elsewhere. He's a proven leader.

I think Tom will, you know, come in and get the best out of the team, and he'll focus, you know, pretty immediately on the strategy and making sure we're executing appropriately on the 2023 plan and building the 2024 plan and prioritizing how we allocate capital to make sure we're focused on delivering sustainable profitable growth for the company. I think everybody has welcomed Tom. He did a great town hall, and the employee population are very excited to work under his leadership.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Awesome. Okay. There are a lot of headlines out there about what the U.S. is going to do with total spending. You know, I guess where do you shake out on what your end market budget growth rates are going to look like in the final government fiscal 2024, and then also more in the medium term?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

The, you know, politics around the debt ceiling and the budget dynamics have been quite challenging, certainly. You know, our view, of course, is we'll come through that, and nobody in Congress wants to see put the U.S. credit rating at risk. In the near term, you know, we've anticipated it's gonna be challenging in the fall. I mean, a continuing resolution is par for the course, that is kind of the standard operating procedure for the U.S. government. How long that lasts into 2024 is really the open-ended question. You know, a prolonged continuing resolution could be, you know, impactful, right, to the markets at large and the ability to continue to deal with challenges that are happening globally, certainly a ground war in Europe and, you know, the increasing China threat.

You know, we like our portfolio in the sense that through ordinary times and reasonable budget environments, we're in the areas that are a focus for our customers. In the near term, you know, again, I think the activity level has been good so far this year. Customers are, you know, awarding contracts. We're seeing new opportunities to bid and submit, and I believe that pace of activity will continue. We're prepared for a scenario where in the fall, you know, we have to operate in that CR, and then the real question is: What impacts does that have as we transition into 2024? TBD, but, you know, we're preparing for any scenarios.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Do you think the final 2024 DoD budget will be higher or lower than the request?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

I think, you know, we've been talking about that throughout the day. I mean, I'd say I'm in the camp of we'll see, you know, some upside there. you know, but it's again, we've got a long journey to get through to make that a reality. I think if you step back and look at the threat environment, you look at, inflationary environment, there's support. Of course, you know, politically, there's a lot of wrangling to be done, you know? How does that ultimately get resolved? How does that get paid for? You know, what's gonna happen on the tax front to potentially raise revenues to offset that? you know, we'll see.

I think that, you know, something that continues the momentum in the key program areas would be beneficial for the nation, and we're hopeful that we can come out of this, you know, with a path forward that, allows us to continue to grow the top line to support critical missions.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Okay. There's also been the dynamic of the outlays trailing the authorization. For a while there, that gap was pretty wide. It seemed like it was closing, then it kinda opened back up again. It seems like that was contracting officers, either leaving the workforce or going remote and just all of the pandemic-related disruption. How close to normal is that at this point for you?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Well, I mean, again, there definitely has been some disruptions in that decision-making cycle. We've certainly seen certain agencies where the shortage in contracting staff was more impactful. I'm encouraged that we saw a little bit of improvement in our intelligence business in the first quarter. That's good because that was one of the areas that was most impacted, I'd say, for the longest period of time. You know, clearly, we're not out of the woods. I think it'll be an ongoing battle. Some agencies have done a better job. We've seen the Space Development Agency, now under the Space Force, for example, move with pace and speed and been able to do things on schedule, but other agencies have struggled a little bit.

You know, I think that's an ongoing dialogue with your customers, trying to get ahead of things and position for where possible can you expand and use existing contract vehicles versus new procurements. We're actually seeing some of that on a vehicle that we won last year called Sentinel. We're finding that certain customers are bringing work to that vehicle because it's already in place, and they don't have to worry about a procurement cycle. Taking advantage of IDIQ type of arrangements that are already in place is one path forward for customers to do, and we're encouraging that.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

It sounds like you sound relatively relaxed about where that's going from here, that there's been enough sort of creativity around resolving that.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Um-

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Not a huge problem.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

I don't wanna sound overly optimistic, Noah. I mean, my job is to make sure that we're, you know, looking and preparing for the downside scenario too. Yes, relative to where it was, you know, last summer and taking all the way till March to get a budget in place, it has improved -

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yeah

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

... in my opinion and my observation relative to that. Hopefully, we'll continue to see some positive momentum in that front.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Is there gonna be a window of catch-up related to that where, you know, the companies in the industry are all kind of beating top lines because there was all this pent-up demand of dollars that weren't spent and it all gets spent, or will that sort of just kinda spread out over time into the future?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Yeah, there's a possibility. I mean, there's also the potential that some of those dollars get swept up and reallocated too. there's always risk in that. If you wait too long to get appropriations into outlays, you know, sometimes money gets pulled back. But I think there's a possibility for, you know, again, customers to spend the more remote, robust budget that they have been out there more recently. again, you know, we saw good growth in our first quarter, 5% top-line growth. saw that a little bit above that in our fourth quarter. hopeful that we can maintain that momentum. I think, you know, solid customer funding environment's key to that.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Okay. maybe just expand on that growth you've seen and what you're expecting in the medium term by each of the main business segments. You know, Civil's been particularly strong.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Mm-hmm.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Is that sustainable? Defense has been a little slower, but the bookings have been better. Does that have an acceleration ahead of it? You know, health had the big 2021, the compares are tough, but it keeps growing anyway. Maybe just give us a little bit of a view on how you see each of the businesses evolving on the top line in the medium term.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Sure. you know, we don't guide by segment, but I can give you some color commentary. Excuse me. I'll take defense. I mean, defense has got a couple different dynamics at play. You're right. We've had some nice awards in the past. Some of them, you know, the best days are still ahead of them. For example, the Defense Enclave Services Award that we won last year. The team has been executing on the first task order underneath that vehicle. The exciting part is we finally got the second task order just very recently, so we'll start to see some uptick in activity under that. Again, the path forward over, you know, a multi-year arrangement is that should transition to really strong growth for us again over time. It's a critical mission. We also, I mentioned the Sentinel vehicle.

Again, that, we're seeing more opportunities to bring tasking there. We're seeing, you know, more bid activity there. There's a couple awards that we previously announced that have room to grow and win. You know, where else do we see, you know, growth in the future? Airborne ISR is a mission area that, there's definitely increasing demand around. We, we like the prospects there for increased level of activity, and, have something we'll, you know, hopefully be talking about new bids and new wins here over the course of the next few quarters. Maritime is another area where, you know, we invested in our Gibbs & Cox acquisition on the naval architecture and engineering in 2021.

You know, that one, coupled with our heritage maritime business, gives us capabilities in the undersea autonomy and surface autonomy domain, and we've won a nice program there. We see more opportunities, and we see opportunities to expand that capability internationally, especially. You know, you're talking about AUKUS with the Aussies and, you know, what can we help support for them in the maritime domain. You know, on the defense services side of the equation, excited about the future prospects in some key areas. We have the Dynetics piece of the defense portfolio. We've been talking about that as a growth catalyst for us in the future 2024 and 2025, most notably. You know, there's a number of things that will help drive that.

You know, we've got our hypersonics family of programs, so there's now maybe a half a dozen individual programs that we have a position on. We're right there in the heart of the hypersonics mission in a number of ways. We have had success on the space payload contract with SDA, as I mentioned, and now we're a sub to a key prime on Tranche One. We see more opportunities going forward on future tranches for the Wide Field of View payloads. Finally, on the enduring Indirect Fire Protection program, we're going to deliver on the prototype phase 16 units this fall.

You know, meeting all the schedule milestones and commitments with the customer that we feel will lead to the low rate production contract, which will be a catalyst for growth next year. There's a number of things we're excited about. Some of them have moved a little bit slower than we would've liked, I mean, big picture, looking over the intermediate term, I think.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

They're there.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

They're there. Quickly on the other two areas, Civil has been, you know, growth on the civilian agency digital modernization work. NASA's been a huge important customer from us, for us, and we won an important takeaway last year, but we had some other programs with NASA. Other agencies that we're seeing good chances to bid on things in the pipeline will be a growth catalyst for us. Our commercial utility business has been, you know, we do a lot of variety of engineering services, energy efficiency services for utility customers. That's been a nice growing business for several years now.

You know, looking ahead, you know, maybe a couple years out, we did a lot of great work for the FAA Air Traffic Control and seeing opportunities internationally around some of those same capabilities. We're excited about those prospects looking ahead in the future. Finally, the SES business, which I'm sure we'll come back to, is, you know, still an area that we expect to be a growth catalyst in the Civil area for the future. Finally, on Health, we love the health business. It's performing, you know, exceptionally well. It's been growing and delivering, you know, bottom line expansion as well. We grew margins this quarter over last, and the team is well positioned in a number of contract arrangements.

The SSA contract that we won in the fall last year, so that's ramping up. That's an expansion of work we were already doing. We are seeing a lot of great bid opportunities on some VA logistics work, and so we're seeing some opportunities in the CDC space as well. Finally, you know, the disability examination business has been performing really well, and we're seeing, you know, more volume due to the PACT Act legislation. The increase in referrals coming our way bodes well for continued growth in that line of business too. A lot of exciting things going on there.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

That's a lot.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

It is a lot.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

That sounds opportunistic. Okay. One more revenue question. The guidance for this year, I believe, implies that the remaining quarters of the year are relatively flat sequentially. If I look historically, most years you're it's seasonally lighter in the first quarter, heavier in the fourth quarter, and ramps through the year. Is there something different about this year, or is there some conservatism in the top line and work to do on the margin?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Obviously, you know, we put a lot of thought into the guidance, and we think in, you know, the range is still appropriate based upon how we see things playing out, as of, you know, the end of our first quarter in our call. Yes, so it does back to our earlier conversation around budget uncertainty in the fall, I mean, clearly there could be some impacts there that we wanna be cautious about. You know, we have to continue to win. I mean, those the seasonal patterns that you talked about, there is some of that in the business with work that we already have, but there's also the need to win and execute and ramp up new programs along the way. That's always gonna be par for the course. I like the path we're on the revenue side.

I think that, we've demonstrated, you know, the improvements in the growth rate. We need to continue to focus on business development engine and continue to win at, win rates that we've seen historically. On the revenue side, I think there's a lot of momentum to continue that growth trajectory.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Okay. let's dive into the margins.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Okay.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

You know, in the first quarter, you know, Civil had the -

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Mm-hmm.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

- concentrated into the Security Products business. Maybe just talk about, you know, now that you all have moved on from the earnings report and the earnings call, how you're thinking about what it would take to improve the overall segment margin. You gave a lot of detail on the call about the issues behind Security Products. Curious as to the duration of each of those.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Mm-hmm.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

How long does it take to get past each of the main issues within that specific piece?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Well, the team's executing a plan. You know, again, it was a disappointing first quarter on margins, no doubt about that. We're focused on making sure the problems are addressed head on. Some of them, you know, are, I would say, we've already been able to address and feel confident those issues are resolved. Some are gonna be an ongoing work in process. For example, customer-driven delays. I think, you know, we can do a better job in how we communicate with them and share schedules and escalate, you know, issues as needed, more timely. To a certain degree, you know, there's only so much you can control. I think we can control, you know, our internal costs to run the business, diversifying some of our supply chain issues, which we've been able to do.

We've insourced some of the activities on the manufacturing front. I think those activities give us some confidence that the, you know, we've got some of the fixes in place. We're looking hard at the cost structure of that business too, and doing what's appropriate to make sure that is set up for future success at varying levels of revenue volume. I mean, again, the long-term prospects on security detection, we think are favorable. Unfortunately, this quarter had a few different things that came to pass at the same time, the team's working, you know, really hard to make sure we're improving on several fronts.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

The customer readiness issue is what exactly? It's, you know, and it's footprint expansion at their facility where they just weren't ready-

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Yeah.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

- to take the product?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

That's right. I mean, you know, we deliver a variety of products, some of which are easy. You know, you can drop them off at a customer's warehouse location, they sign the papers, you're done. Others that require you to do install, oftentimes you need the physical footprint prepped and ready to be able to take, you know, to install the equipment, do the site acceptance test, or sometimes, you know, getting the customers to come out on this right schedule to do the factory acceptance test at our location. There are some things in, you know, the delivery cycle, depending upon the various product, these particular ones were a little bit more complicated, need more, you know, site preparation, civil works to be executed. You know, you're dependent upon them upholding their end of the bargain.

When they're not able to do that, again, sometimes that will happen. How do you make sure we're working collaborative with them to assess the impacts of that and to make sure that that doesn't all just fall on us?

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

There's no financial liability to them for not being on schedule.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Well, that's what I was alluding to, trying to do so in a polite way. I mean, you know, perhaps we can escalate those conversations as appropriate in the future. You know, again, our number one priority is meeting our customer's mission, doing a great job for our customer, delighting our customer. We want long-term relationships.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

We're not quick to poke anybody in the eye, but we wanna be treated fairly.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

It's really up to our business leaders and our contracts teams to assess what's the right resolution.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

If a customer causes some, you know, schedule delays.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

You'd rather have one quarter with a low margin and the long-term business and relationships -

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Absolutely.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

- than start a battle.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Yeah. You're gonna hear us emphasize customer mission above all else. We made our commitments. We want them to do the same, but, you know, we're also, like I said, gonna look at the long-term relationships as most important.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

That arena of timeline delay can often go on for, you know, for a long time when you're in that sort of, I guess, just broader kind of construction. Can this be resolved largely by the middle of the year, end of the year, or is it longer than that?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Well, I, we remain hopeful, again, there's a revised plan that says there's a path to recovery. We have to be prepared for a scenario that, you know, other things can happen, as you just mentioned. You know, as we look at the full-year guidance, obviously, we wanna get this activity resolved and delivered, and I think that's helpful to both us and the customer. In scenarios where that can't happen, you know, do we have offsets elsewhere? We'll continue to run the business in that fashion and try to be as positioned to be flexible where we need to be. You know, we got a contract, we got a backlog, we've a customer need, right? Those things all line up to say, it's going to get done at some point.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

The sooner, the better for everybody involved.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Civil has had some pretty high margins in the past. You know, defense has kind of been mid-8% for pretty consistently for a long time. Health, obviously, has also had some volatility just related to, you know, all the revenue that came at you.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Mm-hmm.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

You know, can you speak to some, you know, where each of the segment's margins kind of want to naturally land a few years down the road?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Yeah. Well, no doubt. I mean, the commitment that we've made at the enterprise level is for the company to deliver 10.5% EBITDA margins by 2024, right? Looking ahead to next year, making sure we're on a path to be able to do that. You know, key to that, we had communicated that the health margins, you know, in the mid-teens was a reasonable expectation as far as that recipe. The good news is they've been able to, you know, get to that level. You know, as we look ahead, you know, we think the team can continue to deliver, you know, strong margins and feel optimistic about their performance in meeting those commitments and potentially finding opportunities to improve.

Civil, again, we haven't given a commitment on what we said about the civil margins, but, you know, historically, it's been a double-digit margin business. You're right, there's been some lumpier quarters. I think our goal as a company is to drive the civil unit close to that enterprise, you know, margin target level, right? How do we make sure we're doing that? I mean, you know, SES is an important component of that security detection, so optimizing that business and making sure we're maximizing the profitability around the service and maintenance tail on products. When we're able to sell more units, as the market recovers, that should hopefully create some upside there. The rest of the portfolio needs to be engineered to deliver, you know, stronger margins in certain spots than they are today.

I think very happy with how our commercial utility business is doing. I mentioned our FAA business and software transportation is running strong. It's really making sure we're selective in, you know, any kind of support for certain customers on the mission operations side, like in the DOE. That can tend to be, you know, sometimes lower margin, so we gotta be more selective about what we pursue in that particular arena and balance that out against higher margin opportunities. Then defense, I mean, you're right, this is our largest aggregate piece of the business, so it needs to be delivering margins above where they are today. We see, you know, a path to get there. Dynetics is a piece of that path, right?

When we acquired the company in 2020, it was as the business pivots to more production-oriented contracts across a couple critical parts of the portfolio, doing that will lead to higher margins. I think we've done a little bit of that so far on, like, the Small Glide Munitions, and we're, you know, close to being able to pivot in some other areas. We're seeing that now on the space side with Wide Field of View Tranche One, where there's better margins associated with these production contracts. That's one important piece, and again, an area that, you know, we featured as part of Investor Day, and we'll continue to provide updates on how we're progressing there. In the rest of the defense portfolio too, I think there's no doubt we're looking to drive margins higher.

We're seeing opportunities. You know, we've won a number of mega IT digital modernization type jobs, and each of those are still early in their, you know, 8- 10-year lifespans. We're, you know, as we move forward with whether it's the Navy Next Gen, whether it's Defense Enclave Services, GSM-O, you know, the aggregation of all of that activity moving ahead, you know, should lend itself to opportunities to grow the mission with the customer and deliver higher margins. I mentioned earlier Maritime, I think that's one that we would expect to be margin accretive as that portfolio matures. Finally, the airborne ISR mission area delivers nice margins as that line of business takes off.

You know, work is never done, so we're definitely looking at the portfolio and, you know, very encouraged about the prospects to drive margins higher in the defense business.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Wanna ask about balance sheet and cash flow and capital deployment, but before I do that, I'll take a pause quickly and see if there are any questions out here in the group. Anybody at all?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Looks like you're still driving the ship here, Noah.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Happy to do it. Okay. Shout if you have one. The pre-cast and net income conversion target has been greater than 100% for a while.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Mm-hmm.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

What does it take to get back to that level?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Well, absolutely, you know, we delivered on that. Looking back at the last three years, the last five years, we've been above the 100% target.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

When we, you know, put out our latest Investor Day expectations, we said approximately 100%. Last year, I think we did 94%, so we were close. This year, you know, we've got some headwinds associated with prior taxes. There are some areas that, you know, as you're winning some of these larger programs, there's been some investment required. I would tell you, there's a ton of energy going on inside the business to look for ways to continue to optimize the cash generation cycle. You know, you should do that every so often.

Even though we've got, you know, great team in place and good processes, sometimes you have to step back from that and go, "Are we optimizing all the programs on the billing side that we can?" You know, there are some programs, for example, where we have contractual ability to bill biweekly. Most of the time we do, but sometimes we haven't been. How do we implement that? You know, again, looking at the source to pay side of the equation too and driving optimization. You know, fundamentally looking at the business, you know, we've got a little bit more demand for inventory now with some of the products business, but not significantly so. I think the core is still will be a low working capital business, a good high return on invested capital.

You know, I would say that driving that efficiency target, you know, over a multi-year time horizon is the way to think about it and judge us. You know, looking ahead to next year, for example, we'll certainly be trying to put a plan together where we're able to execute on that initiative. I don't think anything's fundamentally changed. Sometimes, you know, you've had some years where we've been able to wring a little bit more out of the equation than others. The other dynamic is sometimes, you know, you'll have a favorable opportunity with a customer advance payment. You can't always get those consistently, but on balance, I like the working capital investment and structure we've got in our contract arrangements.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Is there any serious discussion still ongoing about changing this R&D cash tax treatment item?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Yeah.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Or is that -

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Yeah.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

- is it kinda behind you?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Well, boy, that's, you know, this has been an unfortunate one. There's nothing that I'm counting on happening. We clearly had lobbied in the past, trade associations had lobbied in the past. There are some legislation being proposed. I mean, there are certainly still some members of Congress that recognize this is what we think bad tax policy. The reality is it's gonna be difficult given the backdrop of the budget dynamics that we talked about earlier. You know, anything that's perceived as a near-term takeaway on budgetary -

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

... funding.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Not counting on it. There might be some upside there, but the longer this goes, unless it's retroactive, I mean, it'll be less and less significant. At some point soon, you know, in another year or two, we're, you know, almost back to where we were before. It's been disruptive in the short term, that's for sure.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. It was front-end loaded, and they're trying to balance a budget and raise revenue, so we'll see. Yeah.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Little crazy.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

There was some discussion out there in the press that it was part of the current, you know, debt ceiling negotiation.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

It had been talked about as part of that.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

There was some bipartisan support. Like I said, I mean, maybe a small amount of optimism.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Not one that, you know, we're gonna be banking on anytime soon.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Balance sheet today is around two and a half turns net debt to EBITDA. You know, where do you want that over time? How are you thinking about how you wanna use your balance sheet in terms of shareholder-friendly-

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Mm-hmm

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

... capital deployment?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Well, so, you're right, 2.5 times approximately net. We've been looking at gross leverage 'cause the rating agencies have focused on that. 3 times gross is the sweet spot, at least as we evaluated this most recently. Every summer, we've dug into the capital structure and had a robust conversation with leadership and our board, and felt comfortable that 3 times gross leverage was a good place to be to optimize our cost to capital. The rate environment's changing and evolving. We all know that, right? You know, even the debt that is outstanding is a little bit more expensive. You know, am I comfortable being at that level or slightly above? Yes.

Would it be a terrible thing to be a little bit below that and maintain a little bit more optionality for the future? That's a possibility. You know, right now we're, you know, on this path to get to that leverage target, like I mentioned, later in the year, by the end of the year, certainly. We'll have some free cash to deploy if we execute on the path that we, you know, our guidance paths on cash, by the later part of this year. We'll have some decisions that we can make. Yeah, no, we've demonstrated that if we, you know, right opportunity comes along, we can lever up and then pay that back down over an aggressive period of time.

I think going forward with Tom coming on board and assessing the portfolio and where he wants to add more emphasis, you know, my job is to make sure we've got flexibility to execute on that. Those are the conversations we'll be having, is making sure that we've maintained a level of flexibility. That being said, I mean, we've had a balanced capital deployment approach in the past and, you know, dividends have been part of that. Share repurchases, when appropriate, have been part of that. Clearly, M&A, going back to 2020 and 2021, was a big part of that. I still think optimizing the M&A that we've already done creates an opportunity that's in front of us versus having to go do the next M&A deal to, you know, create more shareholder value. That certainly could be part of the equation.

In the near term, I think, you know, focus on the execution of the portfolio we already have.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

What optimization of recent M&A still needs to happen or is available to happen?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Well, optimization maybe might not be the perfect word. For example, in Dynetics, we've had a slower journey to get them fully integrated, you know, to make sure we didn't miss a step on some of the most important customer relationships, employee dynamics. Actually, at the end of this year, we'll get them fully integrated into our enterprise resource system. That'll, from an IT backbone perspective and financial system perspective, it'll check the box on all of that's now done, which will create an opportunity to fully leverage all of the capabilities of the enterprise, and I think that'll be advantageous. We talked earlier about security detection.

I mean, we've integrated them on our financial systems, but I think optimizing, you know, how that organization runs and leverages the global logistics support network, the service network, I think we're, you know, taking advantage of this opportunity to make sure we're doing that. Then, you know, Gibbs & Cox, again, largely fully integrated. We hired a new leader over the heritage maritime in Gibbs & Cox business, a little bit later last year, middle to late last year. I think we'll see the fruits of that, you know, leadership, integrating the capabilities on the heritage side with the acquired side over time. We're excited about the prospects of more synergistic growth coming out of that unit.

You know, we're largely done, but there you can see there's a few examples along the way where we can still deliver even more out of those businesses.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

I see. Okay. I think we're just about out of time, why don't we wrap up there?

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

Great.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Chris, thanks so much for being with us.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

No.

Noah Poponak
Managing Director, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Appreciate it.

Chris Cage
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Leidos

I appreciate you having me out today. Thank you.

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