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Earnings Call: Q2 2021

Aug 5, 2021

Operator

Hello everyone, and thank you for joining the Lemonade, Inc. Q2 2021 earnings conference call. My name is Will, and I will be moderating the call today. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. I now have the pleasure of handing the call over to Yael Wissner-Levy from Lemonade. Please go ahead.

Yael Wissner-Levy
VP of Communications, Lemonade

Good morning and welcome to Lemonade's second quarter 2021 earnings call. My name is Yael Wissner-Levy and I am the VP Communications at Lemonade. Joining me today to discuss our results are Daniel Schreiber, Co-CEO and co-founder, Shai Wininger, Co-CEO and co-founder, and Tim Bixby, our Chief Financial Officer. A letter to shareholders covering the company's second quarter 2021 financial results is available on our investor relations website, investor.lemonade.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the risk factors section of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC on March 8th, 2021, and our other filings with the SEC.

Any forward-looking statements made on this call represent our views only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them. We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call, such as adjusted EBITDA and adjusted gross profit, which we believe may be important to investors to assess our operating performance. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our letter to shareholders. Our letter to shareholders also includes information about our key operating metrics, including a definition of each metric, why each is useful to investors, and how we use each to monitor and manage our business. With that, I'll turn the call over to Daniel, who will begin with a few opening remarks. Daniel?

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

Good morning. I'm happy to be able to report on another quarter of strong advances along our key performance indicators. As compared to Q2 2020, our top line, in-force premium or IFP, grew 91% to $297 million. For the second consecutive quarter, this represents an accelerating rate of year-over-year growth. Premium per customer also increased at an accelerated rate to 29% year-on-year, as recent product launches continue to bolster our economics. Our IFP growth rates reflect our decision to lean in. Earlier in the year, we spoke about compelling unit economics giving us confidence to ramp up growth investment levels, and that's exactly what we've done. For the fourth consecutive quarter, we've sequentially increased our investments in marketing. I expect this theme of leaning in to continue through the second half of 2021.

As long as we're able to acquire business at an attractive LTV to CAC ratio, we'll continue to put our foot to the gas. Tim will elaborate on our expected numbers shortly. I wanted to provide an update on our reinsurance program. In Q1 2021, our business encountered a CAT, a catastrophe event, which exerts more pressure on our gross loss ratio than any other before it, the Texas Freeze. We were able to effectively endure this pressure due to the outstanding reinsurance program we implemented in Q3 of 2020, a 75% proportional or quota share reinsurance program. As a result, our bottom line was shielded from 75% of the impact of the Texas Freeze. In this hyper-growth stage of our business, our proportional reinsurance program is especially helpful.

Not only does it reduce our volatility exposure, but it enables us to be capital light as it relates to regulatory surplus requirements. However, over time, as our business matures and our expected volatility declines, we anticipate a gradual reduction of the proportion of our business that we cede. When we entered into our current reinsurance program a year ago, we locked in 55 of the 75 points for a three-year term, with the remaining 20 points up for renewal each year. Having just completed the first annual renewal process, we are pleased to share that we were able to secure similar financial terms on the portion of the quota share that we renewed. Consistent with my earlier comment, we made a modest reduction in the scope of our quota share program, stepping down from 75% to 70%.

Put differently, we renewed 15 of the 20 points that were up for renewal. I've spent time in prior quarters speaking about the product diversification at Lemonade, a critically important aspect of our strategy that Shai will elaborate on in a moment. I wanted to share an update on another important aspect of our business mix, geographic diversification. Today, at least one Lemonade product is available for purchase in each of the 50 U.S. states, and we continue to push towards being able to service 100% of our customers' insurance needs regardless of where they live. We recently made a meaningful progress in the pursuit of this goal with the launch of our renters insurance product in Florida. The renters insurance market in Florida is large. In fact, it's the 4th largest market in the nation as measured by total gross written premium.

By first focusing on renters insurance in Florida, we will be able to fine-tune our approach in a risky CAT state before we develop our homeowners product in that market. We look forward to bringing the Lemonade renters experience to Floridians and anticipate our product suite in the state will expand over time. As a tech-enabled business, we've been uniquely perhaps able to address markets across continents. To date, our investments have been heavily lopsided in the favor of the United States, as that's been where we've seen the most compelling unit economics. In response to favorable recent trends around improving conversion rates and steadily declining loss ratios that we are observing in Europe, we started investing more meaningfully in R&D in the continent. We anticipate this will lead to a step change in growth investment levels in the continent in 2022 and beyond, and we'll certainly keep you posted.

With that, let me hand over to Shai for some more updates on our product. Over to you, Shai.

Shai Wininger
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

Thank you, Daniel. Last quarter, we announced the upcoming launch of Lemonade Car, and it's been gratifying to see how much our community, shareholders, and customers alike share our excitement. In the intervening months, we've made real strides on all aspects of our car roadmap, including product and technology, recruiting, and regulatory approvals. On the product and technology front, we've completed the development from scratch of an end-to-end digital-first car policy management system. In all aspects of our product strategy, we stayed true to our values and prioritize delivery of a delightful customer experience that is simple, fast, and automated where possible. We use telematics data to develop a nuanced and segmented pricing structure that will provide a great price for safe drivers and ensure we build a strong, low-risk book of business. The Lemonade Car team continues to grow considerably.

We recruited some of the best talent in the industry to lead our car insurance operations and are staffing up our customer-facing teams in preparation for launch. Now I'd like to update you on the mix of products that are currently live. As we look ahead to the long term, we expect our product mix to continue to gradually shift and increasingly diversify. While we love renters as a great point of entry to Lemonade, we continue to invest in other product verticals that provide large and growing addressable markets, cross-sell opportunities to existing customers, and incremental on-ramps to the Lemonade experience. This mix shift is in full effect with our non-renters products accounting for roughly half of our new business for the second consecutive quarter. Today, for the first time, we are pleased to provide the product breakdown of our total book of business.

A year ago, at Q2 2020, renters represented about 75% of our IFP, with homeowners accounting for the balance. By the end of Q1 2021, the renters share was 56%, with homeowners representing 30%, Pet 13%, and life accounting for the remainder. As we look ahead, I'd expect this mix shift dynamic to continue through the rest of 2021 and beyond. We expect to periodically update the mix breakdown when we believe it is helpful to understand our product growth and strategy results. I'd like to make a short comment on the performance of one of our lines of business that recently celebrated a major milestone. At the end of Q2 2020, Lemonade Pet turned one year old. At 13% of the book, Pet has well exceeded our internal expectations, and notably, we've seen great success selling to both new and existing Lemonade customers.

As it relates to new customers, compelling LTV to CAC ratios have enabled us to quickly ramp up spend volume that targets new to Lemonade Pet customers. Pet has been a great case study that demonstrates the willingness of our existing customers to purchase additional Lemonade policies. We've made tens of thousands of Pet cross-sells. Those cross-sells currently make up about 30% of our total Pet IFP. All in all, a terrific first year for our Pet coverage. With that, let me hand over to Tim for a bit more detail around our financial results and outlook. Tim?

Tim Bixby
CFO, Lemonade

Great. Thanks, Shai. I'll give a bit more color on our Q2 results as well as expectations for the third quarter and the full year 2021, and then we'll take your questions. We had another strong quarter of growth driven by additions of new customers as well as a continued increase in premium per customer. In-force premium grew 91% in Q2 as compared to Q2 in the prior year to $296.8 million. We believe that this metric captures the full scope of our top-line growth before the impact of reinsurance and regardless of the timing of customer acquisition during the quarter. Premium per customer increased 29% versus the prior year to $246. This increase was driven by a combination of increased value of policies over time as well as mix shift toward higher value homeowners and pet policies.

Roughly three-quarters of the growth in premium per customer in Q2 was driven by product mix shift, including cross-sales, and the remaining one quarter from increased coverage levels and pricing. Gross earned premium in Q2 increased 90% as compared to the prior year to $66.9 million, in line with the increase in in-force premium. With the impact of the Texas Freeze behind us, our gross loss ratio was 74% for Q2 2021, in line with our target range. This result is 7 percentage points higher than Q2 2020, and this increase is primarily driven by the impact of our rapidly growing new business lines. Early in their Lemonade life cycles, new products tend to demonstrate higher loss ratios than the relatively more mature rest of the book. Operating expenses, excluding loss and loss adjustment expense, increased 126% in Q2 as compared to the prior year.

This was primarily driven by 106% increase in sales and marketing spend as a result of leaning into advertising and growth investment. We also continued to add new Lemonade team members in all areas of the company in support of customer and premium growth in both current and future product launches, and thus saw increases in each of the other expense lines. Global headcount grew 97% versus the prior year to 749, with a greater growth rate in customer-facing departments and in product development teams. Net loss was $55.6 million in Q2 as compared to the $21 million we reported in the second quarter of 2020. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $40.4 million in Q2 as compared to $18.2 million in the second quarter of 2020.

Our total cash equivalents, and investments ended the quarter at roughly $1.2 billion, reflecting primarily the net proceeds from our January follow-on offering of approximately $640 million, partially offset by the use of cash for operations of $57 million since year-end 2020. With these goals and metrics in mind, I'll outline our specific financial expectations for the third quarter, as well as an updated full-year view of 2021. For the third quarter, we expect in-force premium at September 30 of between $336 and $339 million. Gross earned premium between $76.5 and $77.5 million. Revenue between $32.5 and $33.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA loss of between $55 and $52 million. Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $15 million and capital expenditures of approximately $3 million. For the full year 2021, we expect in-force premium at December 31 of between $380 and $384 million.

Gross earned premium between $286 and $288 million. Revenue between $123 and $125 million. An adjusted EBITDA loss between $173 and $169 million. Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $50 million and capital expenditures of approximately $11 million in the year. As a reminder, please note that GAAP accounting rules are such that ceded premiums are excluded from GAAP revenue. As a result of the change in our reinsurance structure effective last July 1st, to significant proportional reinsurance, our year-over-year revenue and gross margin comparisons are not directly comparable. Accordingly, we publish in-force premium and gross earned premium as metrics that we believe are very useful to analysts and investors because both capture the overall growth trajectory of the business before the impact of reinsurance. With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Daniel to address some questions from our shareholders. Daniel?

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

Thanks, Tim. As is our practice, we will now turn to questions most upvoted by our shareholders through the Say Technologies. The first comes from Dean C, who asked about innovations and developments in the pipeline. Well, Dean, a lot of our engineering and product team are working on new products, such as Car, that we have spoken about, and that certainly requires intense levels of development and work. I must tell you that product innovation, product iteration enhancements and innovations are day-to-day bread and butter for us. It's really part of our DNA, and it never stops. In fact, for existing products that are already live, we push into live production dozens of iterations a day. There is a continuous innovation cycle in all of our products, continuous improvement. Our data scientists are continuously monitoring our data streams and training and retraining our models.

Our product teams are continuing to take parts of our processes that are managed by people and to automate them. Something that we've not spoken about previously, but in a few weeks, we'll be shipping a brand new app experience. This really reflects the monumental changes that our business has gone through in the past year. Just over a year ago, we were a monoline business, just in the homeowners space. Of course, now we have that and we have Pet and we have Life and Car is imminent. We're redesigning the app experience pretty dramatically to allow customers to manage all of their different products at Lemonade in a pretty seamless way and to navigate between the insurance policies, allowing them to update coverages, file claims, and get more products with a simple tap. Hopefully, Dean C, that gives you a sense of what we're working on.

The next question comes from Rolando G. Rolando asked about our breakeven and how we will fund the next leg of our growth. Well, Rolando, we don't put a hard date on this, we are not expecting to achieve cash flow positivity in the next couple of years. This is a time when there's tremendous opportunity for us to make investments now that we believe will reward us in the long term. We think about breakeven as something in the medium term rather than in the next couple of years. We spoke about this a bit in our letter as well. In the near term, we're not going to be optimizing for EBITDA. Rather, we're trying to maximize profitable growth as measured by lifetime value of our customers.

We keep monitoring that every dollar that we invest is generating new customers on new products that will be long-term profitable. Really the emphasis is on long-term. In terms of funding all of that growth, we believe we are likely able to fund the business to break even with the cash already on our balance sheet. We're in a very strong cash position today, and as we model out the tremendous growth opportunities that we see in front of us, we do think that the cash on hand will suffice to get us through that hypergrowth and to ultimately to profitability and cash flow positivity. Thaddeus H. asked when we expect the auto insurance product to launch and what effect we believe bundling will have on homeowners insurance. Well, Thaddeus, we spoke about launch time earlier on the call, but I'm glad you raised this.

We are very hopeful. We're quite optimistic that the car/home bundling will be a significant driver of value going forward. To date, despite our meaningful success in renters and homeowners insurance, we've really been selling these products with 1 hand tied behind our back because it's very common practice for customers to bundle home and car, something that our competitors are able to offer and that to date we've not been able to. Adding car products should, 1, enable us to improve homeowners and renters conversion rates and retention rates and accelerate that business growth. 2, dramatically improve the lifetime value of existing Lemonade customers who then will have the option of adding a car policy. As we've said in the past, we think our existing customers are probably spending over $1 billion today on car insurance with other insurers.

We'd like to believe that they'd rather spend that with Lemonade, but that option has not been available. In fact, we're encouraged to see that on Google, Lemonade Car or Lemonade car insurance has consistently ranked as one of the top 3 search terms associated with our company. That's been true for years, even before we spoke about this as a product. We think this may be an indicator of the pent-up demand that we will hopefully unleash with the launch of Lemonade Car. With that, let me turn the call back over to the operator so we can take some questions from our friends on the street. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. Our first question comes from Michael Phillips from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Michael Phillips
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. First question, Tim, I think you mentioned the loss ratio as compared to last year, and you said specifically because of rapidly growing new business lines. I think I specifically heard you say that as compared to just new business. How should we think about the direction of your gross loss ratio, knowing that you're going to get a lot of new business because you're growing so much? Also with the kind of continued shift in your mix of business that you've been alluding to as well. The direction of the gross loss ratio from here, I guess, is the question. Remind us, because you mentioned the target, remind us what your target is on that.

Tim Bixby
CFO, Lemonade

Sure. Happy to, Mike. I would think of the loss ratio as sort of short-term volatility versus long-term target and long-term achievement. In the short term, what we're seeing more of this quarter, and a trend I would expect to perhaps continue, is a somewhat upward pressure on loss ratio as a result of some over-performance in some ways of our new product growth. As we've moved through the course of this year, I think you've seen our top-line expectations in terms of in-force premium and gross earned premium increase as we've moved through the course of the year. Much of that increase and that added optimism is driven by our newer products. Expanded homeowners coverage, the pet product, and the newer products tend to have a somewhat higher loss ratio. They're earlier in their development phase, their maturity phase, as compared to renters.

These are sort of opposing forces as our book of business balances, as the mix continues to shift towards the newer products. In the short term, it's not unexpected that you see a somewhat higher loss ratio. Over the longer term, as those newer products mature, we would expect to see the same dynamic we've seen in renters, which is a loss ratio that improves over time. Now, this is not a dynamic that will end in the short term. We've talked quite a bit about our investments in a pending car launch. Car will be new. It's clearly one of the largest markets in terms of the size of the addressable market. There will likely be that same dynamic of upward pressure in the short term as we kind of make our first steps into auto.

Over the longer term, though, our targets remain the same. I would think of it in the low 70s, 70%-75% loss ratio, absent major CATs is still our target and our long-term target and our long-term expectation. I don't want to underestimate the impact of car. It's one of the most dynamic markets, one of the highest potential markets for us, as Daniel and Shai outlined. With that will come some complexity, and we'll learn our way through it. I think if you look back at our previous product launches, we've demonstrated a pretty solid ability to optimize in those early months and quarters. Car may take a little bit longer as we step into it. I would expect the same dynamic to play out in terms of loss ratio.

Michael Phillips
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Thank you. That's very helpful. A kind of a quick numbers question, probably still for you too, Tim. On your guidance for the adjusted EBITDA, it looks a little lumpy as we get to 3Q and 4Q. See if I'm reading that right, but it looks like there's a big drop-off more so in 3Q and then kind of rebounds in 4Q. Am I seeing that right if I look at your guidance numbers? If so, what's behind that more of a drop-off in the third quarter relative to other quarters of the year?

Tim Bixby
CFO, Lemonade

Yeah, I think you're seeing that right. There's a couple of dynamics happening there. Q3, as you know, has historically been our strongest seasonal quarter. The most added customers, added growth, added premium tends to come in the third quarter. That is moderating somewhat because the newer products, pet insurance, for example, is a little less seasonal. We still see that dynamic. We've got a pretty clear line of sight but visibility into the coming quarter. We're a month in, and so I think the Q3 guidance represents that high level of visibility. Now because we're guiding for the full year, there's obviously implied guidance for Q4. Q4, there's a little more uncertainty. We're investing significantly to gear up for the pending car launch. We don't have a hard date that we've disclosed for that yet.

There's a little more uncertainty about Q4 in terms of what that spending pace will play out to be. I would think of the Q3 guidance as in line with our confidence and approach we've seen in prior quarters. Q4, we'll come back in 90 days and update and have a much clearer or a somewhat clearer view of how we think growth investment will play out, how we think the car investment work is going, and update the fourth quarter at that time.

Michael Phillips
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, thanks. One more for now, if I could. Speaking of car, you're doing a pretty respectable deliberate attempt to get into that and taking your time there and doing the right things, it seems like, so that's respectable. How much of your entry into that market is a function of the timing of the Internet is a function of kind of what we see in the overall industry right now, which looks pretty tough because of where loss trends are headed. Is that affecting your planned entry right now?

Tim Bixby
CFO, Lemonade

Not so much. This is a long-term play. As with how we think about Lemonade in general as a long-term play we're building for five and 10 years from now, our view towards car is the same. We have a significant proportion of our customers who have cars and will insure their cars and will continue to do so. We think we can bring them a product that is notably distinct in the market and in line with the Lemonade promise that we've delivered with the other products that are already in the market. The short-term trends we're certainly aware of and not ignoring. But we believe that the more tumultuous the market, the more unpredictable the market, it really benefits the providers who are more agile, who have the ability to pivot quickly and invest in clever, thoughtful, and quick ways.

While it's a challenging market, we think we are in and will be once we launch, in a pole position to be able to perform well in what is a trickier market. Large incumbents have done amazing things over many years, we think we bring an ability to be agile that will put us in a great position.

Michael Phillips
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, Tim. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Josh Shanker from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Josh Shanker
Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah, thank you for taking my question. I was surprised with the statistic that 30% of your pet premiums are coming from bundlers. I would have thought that it's a natural companion piece to be a renter pet bundler with Lemonade, and that would be the greatest source of your premium. Can you talk about the marketing agenda and how Lemonade Pet is sold? Do you think this percentage of bundled pet renters rises over time?

Tim Bixby
CFO, Lemonade

Yeah, we kind of see that as a very positive metric. It's always a big question when you launch a new product, what proportion will come from existing folks versus new customers. Pet, as you know, in the U.S., is a relatively small market. Two-thirds or more of folks who have a cat or a dog, a relatively low percentage have actual insurance. I think we've been able to show with 30% of those new sales, and we're over-performing our expectations in terms of the total in-force premium going to pet. I think that's a very strong number. We'll continue to go after those existing customers. I think it is as much a testament to our ability to bring in new customers with a new product that drove the 70%.

That's the other portion of that ratio as it is about our ability to sell to our existing customers. We've seen this pattern in the past, something like, maybe it's 50/50, maybe it's 60/40. Pet is now 30/70. That's a good balanced ratio. Hard to say how that will shift over time, but I don't expect any radical shifts. We've got some learnings from that we'll carry forward with us as we move into the car launch.

Josh Shanker
Analyst, Bank of America

I think in the past you've said that renters is around a 65 loss ratio, homeowners is 75. Are those numbers correct that I'm stating? Can you add pet loss ratio to that list?

Tim Bixby
CFO, Lemonade

We actually don't disclose hard loss ratios by product line. You're correct directionally. We have noted that the more mature products have a lower, more optimized loss ratio. Renters is certainly less than the overall business average. Homeowners and pet is higher, and those vary from quarter to quarter. Again, that's part of the new product penalty as we term it, that will likely continue. We do look at the overall loss ratio of the business to keep that healthy, to keep our reinsurance relationships healthy and vibrant. All of that's balanced together, and I think the trend lines are quite good.

Josh Shanker
Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you for the answers.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Kligerman from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Andrew Kligerman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you. Good morning. Question following up on the auto insurance area. In your release, you highlighted that you would not be including any auto insurance in your IFP guidance for 2021. I guess the first part of the question would be, is that because you actually would expect that this product will get launched in 2022? Secondly, what are some of the steps that you need to accomplish before launching the product?

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

Andrew, good morning. Daniel here. There is some uncertainty around the launch. I saw some questions coming our way from some of our retail investors as well along the same lines. Happy to address their questions alongside yours in this regard. We have pretty good control over our own development processes. The development is going very well, I think actually perhaps ahead of plan. What we're seeing in terms of the product development is incredibly heartening. It's really quite exciting to see this product in development. We've been pretty engaged with our prospective customers. We've had some 10,000 customers help us in designing the product and prioritizing features, and it's coming together in a way that will, I believe, really reward all of our customers' patience.

The development I do want to signal to you is going well, perhaps ahead of schedule, and is really quite exhilarating to see. There are elements of the product that we don't control, and those are the regulatory approvals. We don't anticipate any problems with that. It's just hard to time them. We do, as you know, we own our own insurance carrier, and we have our own licenses, but we do need to go to several states, not all states require this, and get them to approve us to write car insurance specifically, and we're working through that process. In all states, we have to get rates and forms approved. That can be a somewhat laborious process at the best of times, and oftentimes when it's your first time filing these, there's slightly more discussion as you establish a baseline with regulators.

Those are processes. They're entirely pedestrian processes that we need to go through. There's nothing particularly exciting or unusual about them, but they're just introducing a degree of unpredictableness or unpredictability, whatever the right way to parse that word is, into our launch dates. There's definitely a swing of several months around that question. For that reason, we're not giving a specific date. We did say a few months ago when we announced the product that we're hoping that it will be within the year. We certainly stand by that. Obviously from all of our points of view, it's better than later. Hopefully the regulatory overview gives you a sense of why we're being a little bit gingerly. Well, we're addressing this somewhat gingerly because of the uncertainty that's hoisted upon us by the regulators.

Andrew Kligerman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

I see. It sounds like you're happy with what you've built, but it's more the regulatory process. Is that right?

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

It is.

Andrew Kligerman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. When you said within the year, you mean within 2022 or within 2021, what you were previously saying? Just so I'm clear on that.

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

Yeah. The lack of clarity is understandable. It was an ambiguous statement, and I'm going to leave it hanging out there a little bit with that ambiguity unresolved, I'm afraid. Yeah, we're really beholden to our regulators, and we don't want to tie them down. They don't appreciate us being too firm on dates that are ultimately in their hands, and we want to respect that process. Apologies for not being more precise on that.

Andrew Kligerman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

No, very fair, and I'll leave it at that. Then just one other question on your life insurance launch. In the release, you mentioned that you came out with it in January. You had a meaningful ad spend in the second quarter, and currently it's 1% of your business mix at this stage in the game. You also mentioned that you think that it could become a meaningful piece going forward. Does the 1% imply that there are a lot of challenges, that it may be difficult to get that number? What are you thinking that might allow for this to become meaningful?

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

The market is very sizable. Consumers, including our own consumers, are spending a lot of money on this sector. It's tens of billions of dollars just on term life, just in the U.S. every year. This is clearly a major potential market for us. We are seeing it growing. The 1% that we intimated is not what we're seeing in terms of our sales on a daily basis. That percentage is higher. The product is launching 5 years after the other one, so it has to claw its way into a meaningful percent of the book just because the other products have years of head start on it. We are seeing the product sell well. We are seeing its growth along the lines that we would have hoped to see.

We are learning how to sell the product both to existing and to prospective customers. Actually, I think I would categorize this as something that we're pretty optimistic about. When we announced the product, you may recall a couple of quarters ago, we were very cautious, cognizant of the fact that for other players in this space, acquiring customers at a profitable level has proven very tricky, and we didn't want to presume that we'll be able to succeed where others have struggled. I think we are more bullish on it now. We're seeing a few months in that we're finding our footings on this product, and it's progressing nicely. I don't want to suggest that there's any problems in this product at all. It's progressing nicely, and hopefully will continue to progress in that way.

Andrew Kligerman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Just let me speak one last point to that and then I'm done. The TAM is clearly bigger and perhaps making that market a lot more competitive, but you feel like you're finding pathways to that growth. That's why you're saying you're optimistic despite greater competition in the life products than maybe some of your other ones right now?

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

What we're seeing, a bit like the discussion that we just had around pet, we're seeing a significant portion of our life sales are going to existing customers. One of the big unlocks really for how to sell term life insurance is to sell it to people that are already customers of yours, that are already trusting of the brand and engaged with you. Certainly, we're seeing that existing customers are happy to buy term life from us, but we are also seeing that we are getting better, and I would say, finding our footing on how to promote this to new customers as well. I don't want to overstate it. It is early days. We've only been doing this for a couple of months. We are pretty studious at trying different things. We're still in that trial and error phase.

I don't want to overpromise or oversell, but I am signaling that we're feeling an increased degree of confidence relative to how we spoke about this just a couple of months ago.

Andrew Kligerman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Very helpful. Thanks so much.

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

Most welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ron Josey from JMP. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Andrew Boone
Analyst, JMP Securities

Hi, guys. It's Andrew Boone on for Ron. Thanks for taking our questions. On the IFP breakdown, you talked about newer distribution channels like, I guess in the letter, sorry. You talked about newer distribution channels like agent partners and graduates doubling share of homeowner sales year-over-year. Can you talk about how these other channels are playing out longer term and the lessons you're learning here? Then secondly, on the Florida launch, can you talk about your approach here and just remind us how many states Lemonade offers renters and homeowners in, and how you guys are progressing towards kind of national coverage? Thank you.

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

From, I'll take the second one first. From a coverage standpoint, we're licensed in upwards of 90% of the U.S. in homeowners and renters. There's some variation. We're not in actively selling both in every single one of those states, but well above 90% in terms of licensing, well above 80% in terms of actively live selling. With life, we're in 100% of 51 states, including D.C. While we don't speak much about coverage, it's primarily because we're edging so close to 100%. We have a couple expansion states left to go with the launch of Florida, which was relatively recent. Every large state is now in play for Lemonade, but there's a handful of smaller states yet to go. If you could clarify your first question a little bit, I think I got most of it, but maybe just give me the-

Andrew Boone
Analyst, JMP Securities

Sure

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

bullet there again.

Andrew Boone
Analyst, JMP Securities

Yeah. In the letter, you guys mentioned agent partners and then graduates doubling share of homeowners year-over-year.

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

Yeah.

Andrew Boone
Analyst, JMP Securities

As you guys think about kind of other channels playing out longer term, what are the lessons you guys are learning? Is it a test or is there something to read in there just on the language? Can you break that down a little bit more?

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

Yeah. The top lesson I think is patience, because some of these things that we have seen in the numbers take some time to develop. Clearly graduates or a renter becoming a homeowner is something we've thought about and encouraged and tried to benefit from since the early days of the business. There's not actually much we can do in terms of.

Tim Bixby
CFO, Lemonade

facilitating someone to go out and buy a home, but it's something we can make the pathway easier and easier over time. What we've seen is a consistent monthly, quarterly increase in the proportion, not the proportion, but the number of folks who are graduating, buying homes, and then staying with Lemonade. There's still an awareness challenge that we're getting much better at, but there's still folks who buy a home and don't actually know that Lemonade has coverage. That was a significant problem in the past. We're getting better at that. That's improving over time. What we're seeing is over the course of quarters and years, this graduate number, if you just look at the pie of new dollars coming in today or this month or this quarter, that graduate number in terms of premium dollars is now significant. It's a significant contributor.

Where a few years ago it was really every dollar we had to pay for, word of mouth was limited, but that has now shifted where word of mouth is strong. Graduates are contributing a significant amount. The third piece that you mentioned is an area where we're also seeing some interesting developments, and that's been in an area. We have a business development group that works on partnerships and developing different channels, whether it's referral agreements. Something we've been talking about on the last couple of calls is an agent program. Lemonade, as you know, is known for not having agents and not paying commissions and those kinds of things. Leveraging networks that are out there and enabling us to reach customers that are a little trickier to reach through our traditional channels, that's what this group does.

There's an agent infrastructure that's now bringing business to us that's gone from relatively small to a much stronger contributor. I think some of these new channels take quarters or even years to build, and now we're seeing the benefit from that. The mix of new business coming in is becoming much more balanced. The measurement's the same, so we look as much as we can at what we expect lifetime value to CAC ratio to be in each of these channels, and it varies based on these channels. We're kind of using that same lens to figure out where the best opportunities are. All that said, the vast majority of the business is still overwhelmingly direct, which we're very, very good at and continue to optimize, continue to see improvements even in that method of acquiring customers.

Andrew Boone
Analyst, JMP Securities

Tim, is that more of a test channel or is it more mature and could that roll out more broadly just across the platform just as we think about other lines maturing?

Tim Bixby
CFO, Lemonade

I would think of it as complementary. It's not a core focus of our customer acquisition, but it's complementary. We look at different channels in different ways. It might be somewhat more mature than a test, but I would put it in sort of the complementary bucket. That's something where we'll deploy dollars, get results, and adjust accordingly.

Andrew Boone
Analyst, JMP Securities

Thank you so much.

Daniel Schreiber
Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Lemonade

All right. I think if there are no more questions, we will wrap up the call. Great to catch up with everyone, and thank you for your thoughtful questions. We look forward to seeing you again next quarter. Thanks so much.