Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Lockheed Martin 4th Quarter and Full Year 2017 Earnings Results Conference Call. At this time, all the participant lines are in a listen only mode. There will be an opportunity for your questions. Instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.
I'll turn the conference now to Mr. Greg Gardner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, John, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to our Q4 2017 earnings conference call. Joining me today on the call are Marillyn Hewson, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive And Bruce Tanner, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Statements made in today's call that are not historical fact are considered forward looking statements and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those projected In the forward looking statements, please see today's press release and our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause results to differ materially from those that are in the forward looking statements.
We have posted charts on our website today that we plan to address during the call to supplement our comments. Please access our website at www.lockheedmartin.com and click on the Investor Relations link to view and follow the charts. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Merrill.
Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on the call today, And I hope you've all had a good start to the New Year. Let me begin by expressing my sincere gratitude to the entire Lockheed Martin team for their contributions and commitment throughout 2017. It was through their dedication and efforts that we were able to deliver strong financial results for our stockholders and outstanding operational performance for our customers.
Thanks to their focus on mission success, We are well positioned for long term growth and I am excited by the prospects the future holds. 2017 was an exceptional year of achievement with strong operational results and new historical high watermarks for sales, Orders and cash from operations. We were pleased to see our 2017 sales eclipsed $51,000,000,000 representing growth of 8% over our 2016 results. Our 2017 growth was broad based with each of our 4 business areas exceeding last year's results. Leading this increase was our Aeronautics business area, fueled by 18% growth in the F-thirty 5 program, followed by our Missiles and Fire Control business area exceeding 2016 sales by 9%, driven by both tactical missiles and air and missile defense products.
We ended 2017 with approximately $100,000,000,000 in backlog, the result of our record orders and strong yearly book to bill ratio, which have the corporation well positioned for continued growth. I'd also like to highlight our performance in driving cash from operations as we generated 1,500,000,000 in cash during the Q4 $6,500,000,000 for the year. These results allow us The corporation also funded a record level of investment and independent research and development and capital expenditures, developing new technologies and positioning the business for future growth. As we noted in today's earnings release, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was enacted in the Q4 of 2017 and will provide long term benefits for the corporation. In the short term, it did result in a one non cash increase to income tax expense that caused our reported earnings to fall below the guidance ranges we communicated in October.
We will discuss tax reform in detail later on the call, but the impact of this one time charge does not diminish The outstanding operational and financial performance we delivered in 2017. Turning to the Department of Defense budgets. The federal government remains under a continuing resolution or CR for fiscal year 2018 with an extension now in place through the 8th February. While we are disappointed at the need for the recent extension, there continue to be positive indications of future budget growth despite the current short term CR. 1st, in December, President Trump released the administration's National Security Strategy, a broad overview of global challenges and the overarching strategies to address them.
Notably, The strategy underscores the need for additional investment in the U. S. Military and our country's national defense. This month, the Defense Department also released its 2018 National Defense Strategy, which reinforces the themes of the National Security document. Specifically, both strategies highlight the commitment to layered missile defense as well as modernization of our military's weapon systems and readiness, with emphasis on nuclear, space, cyber and intelligence capabilities.
We believe our portfolio is well aligned to these objectives and we are hopeful appropriations will be enacted, which support both the National Security and National Defense Strategies. Also, the continuing resolution bill that the government passed In December, included an additional $4,700,000,000 over the prior CR for emergency defense funding. Of the $4,700,000,000 nearly $4,000,000,000 was targeted for missile defense needs, a key element of the national security strategy and included request for 50 additional THAAD interceptors and nearly 150 of our PAC-three MSE missiles. This action represents an increase in missile defense funding of approximately 50% over fiscal year position in this vital area of national security. Lastly, in December, President Trump signed into law the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act or NDAA.
The bill, which was passed by Congress with bipartisan support, authorized over The NDAA based budget authority would exceed both fiscal year 2017 enacted amounts and the presidential request
for FY
2018 that was released last spring and would be in excess of the budget control spending caps. As I have noted before, legislation is still needed to adjust the future spending limits imposed by the Budget Control Act. We are encouraged by recent legislative activity and we continue to urge our lawmakers to work towards an agreement, which modifies the budget caps and provides the defense funding required to deliver to our military the resources vital to our national security. Moving to tax reform, we are pleased to see this important piece of legislation enacted, and we believe it will have a positive impact on our corporation and allow American companies to compete more effectively in global pursuits. The new law reduces the combined U.
S. Corporate tax rate from the highest in the industrialized world, bringing it in line with the tax rates used in the most advanced economies. This will enable us and just as importantly, many of our supply chain partners to invest in transformative technologies and make decisions that we anticipate will enhance our competitive position in the 21st century, supporting growth and long term benefits for customers, employees and stockholders. We believe this legislation will encourage investment, innovation and job creation across industry. It is important to recognize that the benefits that we will realize in 2018 continue into the future, and we are currently exploring options to use these future benefits in ways that will support the growth of our company and deliver long term value to our stakeholders.
One immediate and proactive measure our corporation implemented was deciding to accelerate payments to our pension trust in 2018. As a result of this decision, we will contribute $5,000,000,000 in cash, satisfying our required pension contributions until 2021. We are also exploring as a result of the new legislation to enhance our competitive posture and long term growth potential. Some of these initiatives include Increasing our employee training and educational offerings to drive critical skill development increasing our charitable contributions In science, technology, engineering and math or STEM programs, the lifeblood of our future talent pool, including the creation of a STEM scholarship fund to encourage participation in these important fields of study, Increasing the Lockheed Martin Ventures Investment Fund that we established over a decade ago, whose charter is to make strategic investments in early stage companies that are developing disruptive, cutting edge technologies in core businesses and new areas that are important to Lockheed Martin. We expect these investments will enable these companies to mature their technologies, Expenditures and research and development, we will increase our commitment in these areas by a combined $200,000,000 in 2018 as we continue to invest in the assets required to efficiently execute our business as well as the technologies needed to drive long term growth.
We will continue to assess these and other options with the objective of using the benefits of tax reform to drive growth in our business, attract and retain high performing talent, create new employment opportunities and enhance future cash deployment actions. Moving on, I would like to highlight several operational milestones we achieved across the corporation during the recent few months. Beginning with an update on our F-thirty 5 program, during the Q4, we met our joint This accomplishment represents a 40% increase from the previous year as we continue to ramp up production on this transformational fighter. We anticipate this momentum continuing into 2018 and now expect to deliver approximately 90 jets this year, an increase of over 35% from 2017 as we continue to progress to full rate production in the next few years. To date, we have delivered over 265 planes to U.
S. And international customers. We are excited to see the international community embrace the F-thirty 5 with Norway receiving their first Israel declaring initial operating capability for their 1st squadron of Cetal Jets. And through 2017, 7 of our current 11 international customers have accepted F-thirty 5 deliveries And we look forward to working with both existing and potential new buyers to satisfy growing future demand. Moving to our Missiles and Fire Control business area.
Our PAC-three team achieved several notable milestones, including Successfully neutralizing 4 tactical ballistic missile targets in a complex test at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Satisfying a requirement that opens the door to full rate production for our PAC-three MSE interceptor. Participating in a signing agreement with U. S. And Romanian officials providing Romania the opportunity to upgrade its air defense system by purchasing PAC-three MSC Missiles and receiving an order of over $900,000,000 The PAC-three missiles for the United States and Allied Military Forces.
In the Rotary and Mission Systems business area, We were pleased to see that the Cabinet of Japan agreed to the purchase of 2 Aegis Ashore batteries, which will increase that country's missile defense capabilities and provide greater protection for the Japanese people. The Japan Maritime Self Defense Force currently operates multiple Aegis equipped destroyers and has been a longtime Supporter of our Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Technology. The installation of the 2 land based Aegis Ashore batteries We supplement the Aegis Sea Based Systems to deliver improved layered missile defense capability, allowing coverage over a wider range with the ability to address a greater number of threats. While this opportunity remains to be finalized, We are excited by the confidence that the Japanese government continues to show in our Aegis product. Once operational, The Japanese installation will be the 3rd Aegis Ashore deployment, adding to those operated by the U.
S. In Romania and Poland. I'll close with our space business area. The Space Based Infrared System or SBIRS satellite was delivered to the Air Force at Cape Canaveral Air Station in October and was successfully launched into orbit on a United Launch Alliance Atlas V Rocket just 10 days ago. ULA's 125th successful mission since being founded in 2006.
The Geosynchronous Earth Orbit or GEO satellite is the 4th of our 6th satellite Constellation to be deployed and is a key part of our nation's missile defense system. The SBIR system enhances the military surveillance abilities and expands technical information gathering and situational awareness capabilities, collect We are extremely proud to be able to provide this crucial product in support of our country's security and defense. I'll now turn the call over to Bruce to review our 2017 financial performance and discuss our expectations for 2018. We will then open up the line for your questions.
Thanks, Marilyn, and good morning, everyone. I'll be making remarks Based on the web charts that we included with our earnings release today, let's begin with Chart 3 and an overview of our results. We finished the year with strong results in all key financial metrics. Sales exceeded $15,000,000,000 in the quarter, Rebounding as expected from the lower than planned sales in the 3rd quarter, resulting in $51,000,000,000 in sales for the year. Segment operating profit was in line with our expectations for the year at $5,100,000,000 driving our earnings per share to $13.33 Prior to the one time adjustment to recognize the impact of the new corporate tax rate on our deferred tax asset balances at the end of the year.
We continue to have strong cash performance in the quarter, generating $6,500,000,000 for the full years. We delivered on our commitments to return cash to stockholders with $4,200,000,000 returned through dividends and share repurchases And we ended the year with about $100,000,000,000 in backlog. So we're pleased with our overall performance in 2017. On Chart 4, we compare our sales for 2017 with our sales for 2016. Sales grew 8% over last year's results to just over $51,000,000,000 for the year, which is the highest level we've ever achieved.
I'll show how that growth was spread amongst our 4 business areas on the next chart. Chart 5 compares 2017 sales levels versus last year's results for each of the business areas. All four business areas grew sales compared to 2016. Aeronautics was up 13% over last year, driven primarily by higher F-thirty five production and sustainment volume and those delivery of 2 additional C-one hundred and thirty aircraft in the year. Rotary Emission Systems grew 6% in 20 2017 as well as a favorable change in aircraft mix.
Missiles and Fire Control grew 9% In 2017, driven by higher volume and deliveries in the fire control, tactical missiles and air defense lines of business. And finally, space was slightly higher than last year with higher AWE sales more than offsetting the volume from 2 commercial launches in 2016 versus none in 2017 and lower government satellite volume this year. On Chart 6, we compare our earnings per share in 2017 with our results from 2016. As I said on the first slide, our EPS for this year before the impacts of tax reform is $13.33 About a higher excuse me, about $1 higher than our EPS in 2016. On a GAAP basis, our EPS was $6.64 After recognizing a $1,900,000,000 charge to earnings primarily to reflect the lower value of our deferred tax assets at the lower statutory rate of 21%.
And as you can tell from our cash performance in the year, This charge had minimal impact on cash from operations. We show our cash performance on Chart 7. We generated $6,500,000,000 in cash from operations in the year, about $300,000,000 higher than we had outlook during the October call at a record level for the corporation. This amount represents a 25% increase in cash from operations over the 2016 result, which was itself a record level at that time. Chart 8 shows the amount of cash returned to stockholders during the year, With $6,500,000,000 in cash from operations and almost $1,200,000,000 of capital expenditures in the year, Our free cash flow was $5,300,000,000 And with almost $4,200,000,000 of cash return in the form of either dividends or share repurchases, We returned 79% of our free cash flow in the year.
Chart 9 provides Both our pro form a 2017 results and our 2018 outlook under the new revenue recognition methodology that became effective on January 1 this year. Our sales and segment operating profit were in line with the estimate that we provided during the October call. You'll notice that our pro form a results also reflect the new accounting standard to record only the FAS pension service cost and operating profit and non service FaaS pension cost and non operating costs. Because our pro form a segment Profit was similar to the profit under the old revenue recognition methodology. Our EPS is close to what was reported for 2017.
And of course, cash from operations was not affected by the revenue recognition change. Our outlook for 2018 sales and segment operating profit is also About what we provided during the October call was sales growing about 2% over the 2017 level at a margin of 10.4% at the midpoint. Projected EPS for 2018 is significantly higher than 2017 Due to lower tax rate, higher segment operating profit and improved FASCAS outlook that I will describe in a couple of charts. Cash from operations is expected to be greater than or equal to $3,000,000,000 after our decision to accelerate 3 point $4,000,000,000 worth of required pension contributions for 2019 2020 into 2018 for a total Contribution of $5,000,000,000 in order to retain the tax deduction for these contributions at the old statutory rate of 35%. The $3,000,000,000 outlook for cash from operations may seem higher than expected given that we provided And we are contributing an additional $3,400,000,000 more to our pension trust than we discussed at that time.
The reason for the higher cash is twofold. First, we expect to have about a $900,000,000 refund From our 2017 taxes paid because of the additional pension contributions and we also expect to pay about $500,000,000 less and cash taxes during 2018 as a result of tax reform. I'll also provide more insight into what this acceleration Funding means for out year cash from operations in a couple of charts. Chart 10 shows our outlook for 2018 sales and Segment operating profit by business area. We provided pro form a sales and segment operating profit for 20 and 2017 reflecting the new revenue standard and pension expense presentation and the attachments As adjustment outlook for 2018 compared to what we discussed in October, we And that lowered the FASCAS adjustment by $115,000,000 Our actual return on assets in 2017 increased the end of the year to 13% versus the 9% we assumed in October, improving the adjustment by $75,000,000 We revised the longevity assumptions for our planned participants, which improved the adjustment by $25,000,000 And the planned asset returns on the additional $3,400,000,000 of contributions in the year improved by $165,000,000 to the current outlook of just over $1,000,000,000 for the year.
Chart 12 provides a view of how tax reform and our decisions to accelerate required pension contributions impacts our cash from operations outlook We expect to fund this acceleration through cash from operations, cash on the balance sheet and commercial paper rather than long term debt. And with the acceleration of contributions into 2018, we no longer have required Contributions in 2019 or 2020. With this improvement, along with the annual benefit from tax reform going forward, We now expect our cash from operations to be equal to or greater than $17,000,000,000 for the years 2018 to 2020 With both 2019 2020 expected to have around $7,000,000,000 in cash generation. Finally, we have our summary on Chart 13. We finished the year strong in 2017 and that positioned us well for 2018.
The benefits of accelerating our pension contributions into 2018 and the recurring benefits of tax reform provide Well for today's environment and what we expect in the years to come, and we plan to make the necessary investments in new technologies, our facilities and our employees to support future growth. With that, we're ready for your questions, John.
Thank And first, we'll go to the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my question. Thank you. Just Bruce, I guess on your Chart 12, if you could maybe talk about the cumulative cash guidance of $17,000,000,000 How do we think about the moving pieces? Pension is a bit of more of a headwind than we thought, maybe 1.7% and tax is an offset. So how do we think about maybe working capital Investments as well as CapEx and any other moving pieces.
Yes. So thanks, Sheila. So just maybe to reiterate what I said in the prepared remarks, we had I think we teed this up actually in the October call that we had some The return of some fairly significant pension contributions starting in 2018, 2019 2020. And so that's one of the reasons why we'd expected cash in 2018 to be a little lower than 2017 before all these adjustments took place. So our decision clearly to accelerate the pension contributions into 2018 was based on The tax benefits maintaining the tax benefits that their 35% rate provides to us.
And I think that's Good common sense. I mean, the one thing I would tell you is that doesn't create per se an extra benefit to us. It's really maintaining the benefit We had under the old tax rate all along. And the real benefit here is coming from tax reform going forward. And you should think of that as Roughly $500,000,000 a year going forward.
The working capital question that you asked about is A little convoluted perhaps because some of the pieces in working capital change under the new revenue recognition approach under On the balance sheet, if you will, moving from some inventory numbers up to contract But in total, we would still think to have no material growth in our working capital over the next 3 years period, frankly. The one I think you had one other question. I'm sorry, just to top of my head there. You asked about capital expenditures. Capital expenditures We're at a record level in 2017.
We actually expect to have a higher level in 2018. A lot of the Reason for the additional capital in 2018 is supporting the new wins that we had in 2018. That number stays Fairly consistent with where we're expecting 2018 to be in 2019 and then at least current planning is that drops off maybe a little bit In the 2020 time frame, but all that's dependent upon new opportunities as they present themselves and the potential to have That we haven't currently invested in our contracts going forward.
Our next question is from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, Bruce. A couple of probably Quick ones. The actual tax rate for 2018 is going to be what 18%, 18.5%. The second part, The Sikorsky profit you said was up $60,000,000 but it still would suggest to me they only made about $10,000,000 in the quarter and I know you've got the amortization But that still seem like a low number, if you could explore that a little bit.
And then the last one is it would seem like the F-thirty five Margin went up a little bit based on the incremental profit that you disclosed. Thanks.
Yes. Thanks, George.
I think pretty accurate there. 18% is maybe a little less than that frankly is what we're looking at. And just to put maybe a little color behind that, sort of the headline reduction you'd expect to see is sort of a 14%, The difference between a 35% tax rate and a 21% tax rate. We think our effective tax rate is probably coming down about 10% And the reason for that is twofold. 1, we're losing the manufacturing deduction, which was phased out under the new tax Policies going forward, that's worth about a 2% change in our effective tax rate.
And then if you just think of the other Deductions that we have that are still maintained going forward, but each one of them so this is for things like the R and D expense, this is Things like ESOP deductions and the like, while they're maintained, they're worth less under a 21% Tax rate than they were under a 35% tax rate. And so collectively, those are worth about another 2%. So 14% becomes 10% and our 27%, 28% tax rate sort of before tax reform becomes roughly 2017%, 2018% going forward. That's sort of the way we think about that. Sikorsky $60,000,000 was in the quarter.
I'm just trying to think, George. I think Sikorsky had actually a pretty good quarter in 2017. I mean that's in fact, I think that was if I'm not mistaken, that was probably the highest quarter Profit in the 4 quarters for 2017. So I think we were pleased actually with the results in the quarter. We obviously had higher aircraft delivery in the quarter, and we also had a little bit of an improved mix situation on the deliveries of the aircraft that did occur in the quarter.
We're actually pretty pleased with where it is. And we think the good news about that is Sikorsky's profitability. We expect to be higher in 20 Then in 2017. And then lastly, I think you asked about the F-thirty five margin and you're right. We did have Some risk retirements in the quarter on the F-thirty five program that did result in higher margins in the quarter on the F-thirty five program.
But I'll say we had good performance on the manufacturing, especially the production, obviously, a portion of the F-thirty five program throughout the year. This was just the last sort of instantiation of that in the form of some risk retirements that we took in the Q4. So good performance overall.
And next we'll go to Sam Perlstein with Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.
Good morning.
Good
morning. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about tax reform and some of the moves with regards to pension and how to think about Capital allocation, September is when you typically deal with the dividend now with a much lower operating cash flow number from the pension contribution. Yes. Does it change your view of the payout or how to think about dividend growth? And then Bruce, could you just give us a single point or some range as to when you said CapEx is up?
What is that number for this year?
Yes. Sam, I'll take both of those. So capital allocation, You asked tax reform and capital allocation impacts from that. As you said, and I don't want Significant change with any of the capital allocation items that we've already anticipated in our guidance for 2018. So for instance, our In October, we talked about $1,000,000,000 of share repurchases.
That won't change. We'll have our normal discussion on dividends In September of later this year. And I think our overall capital allocation, I would say it's A little bit opportunistic base going forward. We'll see what sort of organic opportunities present themselves that require capital expenditures And that's clearly our first order of priority in terms of generating organic growth going forward. And then we'll take a look at the what's left over, so to speak, for share repurchases and dividend payouts.
I would think that if you look at our track record for well over a decade, we've had a pretty good track record for I think doing the right things in terms of share excuse me, in terms of cash return to stockholders and supporting the growth needed to support Our corporation going forward. So we'll continue that going forward. The one thing about our cash flow and in particular the tax reform going forward is it obviously makes our Payout ratio a little bit lower than it has been in the past. So it creates at least the opportunity to continue the sorts of share excuse me, the sorts of dividend increases We've had in years past, but we'll face that and cross that bridge in the September time frame when we do that with our Board, as I said. The absolute number in terms of 2018 CapEx is around $1,300,000,000 And at least as we sit here today, Sam, that 1.3%, maybe a little more than that in 2018 is about the same number we'll see in 2019, maybe a little lower than that.
You should think of both years at least if not rounding to being pretty close to $1,300,000,000
Thanks.
And next we'll go to Cai von Rumohr with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you very much. So Bruce, If you could give us a profile of the deliveries and sales and profits of Of course, the going forward, I mean, I assume we're going to see some pickup in commercial deliveries this year. And secondly, you said that As you look out to 2021, you'll have to start pension contributions again. I mean by our math, You've done significantly well in terms of the contribution and the return so that you should be relatively near full
Delivery profile and sales earnings and profit going forward for Sikorsky and whether or not we expect to see a pickup in commercial deliveries. What's going on with Sikorsky is a pretty good drop off in terms of commercial excuse me, in terms of government aircraft deliveries from 20 2017 to 2018, you should think of the 2017 was the end of multiyear 8 and 2019 Sort of the 1st year of Multiyear 9 deliveries. And I think we're down about 50 or so between the Black Hawk program and Naval Hawk program, we're down some 50 commercial excuse me, 50 government helicopters. So pretty good reduction. And part of that's because the multiyear 9 was a lower In terms of overall quantity, the multiyear 8, and we negotiated a minimum quantity and that What's in our planning purposes going forward, we're obviously hopeful and we gave pricing for that in the multi year for additional aircraft that we hope We'll ultimately get plussed up through budget adjustments going forward.
The good news is we've already got those aircraft priced, if you will, in the multiyear. So We're kind of at hopefully a bit of the low point there on the government deliveries. As far as commercial, Kyle, though I think I've been watching, which I don't normally do, but I've been watching oil prices and We've been hitting $65 here a barrel for at least a couple of weeks or so. I think we've got some more time To wait before and some we need $65 a barrel to stay at that level for a little bit longer to sort of drive some of the volume of Helicopters in the Oil and Gas Industry. So we're obviously not expecting a large increase on the commercial in 2018 compared to 2017.
And frankly, we're looking pretty flat in 2019 as well. Obviously, that could change pretty quickly depending on oil and gas prices. So as I said, we do watch that closer. Longer term with Sikorsky, we'd like to see the growth coming from the 53 ks program as we start to enter the low aircraft and or excuse me, lower rate production phase of that program. And hopefully, you should think of sort of the Downturn in Black Hawk helicopter deliveries being offset by upticks in 53 ks volume as well some of the other development programs we've got going like the presidential helicopter program as well.
So you should think of Sikorsky, this again kind of a low point in sales in 2018 and some growth going forward in 2017 and beyond. 53 ks, I think we're going to be for those of you that are going to attend the Berlin Air Show, we're actually going to have that aircraft fly In Germany, and we're excited by the prospects of that opportunity, not just for the U. S. Marine Corps, which I believe the quantity is about 200 In the plan of record for the Marine Corps, we're hopeful that we can sell some international customers. The 2 most likely would be Either Germany or Israel, not sure which order that would be.
But if you happen to be in Berlin, by all means, stop by and see the aircraft fly.
Our next question is from Ron Epstein with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Yes.
Hey, good morning. Good morning. A quick question maybe changing gears a little bit to the F-thirty five program. On their earnings call, Northrop Commented in their Mission Systems segment that they're producing about 90 units a year, which they called peak production rates. And To me that kind of seemed well below the plan of record.
I'm not sure if they misspoke or what, but just trying to get a sense. I mean, Are we at peak production rates? I mean that kind of seems consistent with something Pat Shanahan said in public comments already, but I'm just trying to get my head around like where What peak rates are and where they should be? And so why don't I leave it there?
Hey, Ron, let me take a shot at that. And I think there was some confusion by both the secretary's comments and I saw what was said by the Northrop Grumman folks as well. I think the message everyone is trying to send is when you're delivering 90 aircraft or 90 mission systems or 90 of anything, That's a pretty high production rate, different than most low rate initial production programs. But the F-thirty five program is technically not at full rate production until I believe LRIP or past LRIP 14. I think the first Production lot is sort of fiscal year or not fiscal year, but it will be the lot after LRIP So technically, we're in low rate initial production, but the quantities are very, very high.
And you should just think, If we're at 90 some odd units, which is again what Maryland said we're going to be delivering aircraft wise in 2018 and the mission systems Sort of on the front end of deliveries, that's the reason they could be at that rate in 2017. You should think of in the next 3 to 4 years, we're going to be at the 150 aircraft per year. So we're not close to the peak of production yet. But At the volume we're talking about now, it feels like we're in a production program. I think that's what the secretary was trying to say is this is not low rate.
If you're delivering 90 aircraft a year, It feels sort of like a production program, but you should not think of that as the peak. And hey, before we go to the next one, I realized that jotted a note down to myself and I completely forgot to answer Kai's last question and Kai kind of asked, are we getting close to full funding and so forth. One thing I would say is one of the things we looked at, why we decided on $5,000,000,000 is the right numbers. We are getting close enough Tore, we need to be careful to not get overfunded on our pension program. So while funding starts again Up in 2021, it starts up at a much, much lower level than what we are or what we currently funded And for the 2019 2020, we acquired contributions with our $5,000,000,000 contribution.
So Part of that reason again is in the year 2020, we have the final close or yes, final freeze, excuse me, of our pension going And that's one of the things that brings that down. But we have been putting a lot of obviously funding into the pension plan over the past few years and just Gets us to the level that I just described about to you. Sorry about that, Guy.
And next we'll go to Rich Safran with Buckingham Research. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Marilyn, Bruce, Greg, good morning.
Good morning. Hi, Rich.
I'm going to I'd like to ask another Different type of question regarding the impact of tax reform here. And I'm not trying to rain on the parade at all here, but there's a lot of chatter on the hill and with The investment community that the Pentagon is going to look to either try to capture a clawback some portion of the tax benefit that defense companies are getting from the lower rates. The thinking is that the government could either renegotiate existing contracts or might look to reprice items on future contracts. Now, I'm not sure how the government can renegotiate existing contracts, but I'd like to know if that's something you're hearing from the government. And if so, I'd like to get your response to
Thanks for the question, Rich. I'll take that one on because I've been very much involved with my fellow CEOs on Looking very hard at this opportunity for tax reform to make us more competitive in the global marketplace. So let's remember, first off, why the administration and Congress enacted significant tax reform. It was to make the U. S.
Economy more globally competitive and to encourage industry to invest in America to create jobs and accelerate economic growth. And Lockheed Martin has been one of the leading companies, been pushing for tax reform. We've had that. So with that in mind, we have this purpose Purposefully set in mind, as you heard from my remarks earlier, about what the purpose of the tax reform is. And as we evaluate options of what we want to do With these tax savings, it's all around that purpose that our government put forward.
So as I said in my remarks, Our vision is to use these benefits to differentiate ourselves in the global marketplace through investments and what makes us more innovative and more efficient so that we can grow our business and we can create new jobs. We want to also enhance the skills of our current workforce as we look at what's happening with Digitization and all that transformation that's happening, we want to make sure that our workforce is prepared for the future. And we also want to make sure that we're an attractive employer for our future workforce by investing in STEM activities and helping in the communities where we work. So it's this is particularly important if you think about the U. S.
That we are graduating fewer students with STEM degrees and And yet many of our programs require only U. S. Citizens to work on them. So we need students that are coming in with STEM educations to come into those jobs. Frankly, if we don't do this, I think we would have wasted the incredible potential that tax reform presents to us.
If you think about our industry, aerospace and defense, it is the backbone of global security and we take this mission very seriously and we're determined to make sure that we remain competitive By investing in our business, by enhancing our critical capabilities, by investing in our human catheter, our employees, So that we can help protect the nation, our allies and our partners. So I just take you back to the point of why the tax reform was put in place. It was to invest
Our next question is from Rajeev Lalwani with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thanks for the time.
Sure.
Bruce, Maryland on the Can you just walk us through the limited growth of operating profits into 2018? I'm assuming it's just the legacy programs offsetting F-thirty five growth. That's 1. And then just looking forward, can you help us think about the growth of this segment and where it comes from? Is it going to be the F-thirty 5 or maybe some of the other programs you've been talking about?
Within Aeronautics, you're talking about Rajeev,
the last part of the question?
Yes. So margin wise at aero, it is We're guiding towards a little bit lower number in 2018 versus 2017. Back to George's question, we did have a number of risk retirements on some earlier F-thirty five LRIP production lots that we took in 2017. And at least right and I'll say they were a little higher than what we had planned for in 20 And so while we have planned risk retirements for F-thirty five production in 2018, they're not at the same level as they were in 2017. So while we have opportunities, as I always say about this time of year, To do better than what we're planning.
The planning right now is just for a lower level than that. That's driving it, I'll say, more than the mix Programs on the F-thirty five. And the one thing that maybe is not true about what I just said is we're hopeful that there'll be a TX or the APT program, the pilot training program for the Air Force announced later this year. That will have Slight dilutive effect on the overall margins because it starts kind of slow as a program to begin with, especially if it's later in the year 2018. That has a slightly lower no, not slightly lower, quite a bit lower Starting margin than our other programs within Aeronautics.
I mean, you should think of the F-thirty 5 now is about on par Margin wise with the overall aeronautics margins as a whole and that's in part because the 35% is simply becoming so big relative to Aeronautics as a whole. So again slightly lower in 20 2018 versus 2017. Maybe the other reason for that is we did finish the last F-sixteen production aircraft delivery in 2017. We actually have quite a bit of F-sixteen modernization business, But those are sort of starting out in the early phases and is our practice typically on early Start programs like that. We're actually starting those off at probably a lower margin than the actual aircraft that delivered at the end of 2017.
So I think those two reasons, Rajeev, are the reasons that you're seeing what you're seeing.
Our next Question is from Rob Stallard with Vertical Research. Please go ahead. Thanks so much. Good morning.
Hey, Rob. Good morning.
Marilyn, you mentioned missile defense in your commentary a number of times. I was wondering if you could size the revenue exposure that you had in 2017 and And how you expect this end market to grow over the next few years? And then just a quick one for Bruce. How do you expect the FAS CAS
This is actually going to refer to you on The revenue rolled up on all of missile defense because it crosses over several of our business areas between Our Rare Emissions Systems and Missile and
Fire Yes. So let me take a shot at that Rob. The easiest one to think of frankly is we do treat Within missile and fire control, air missile defense is its own line of business and you should think about it as obviously the PAC-three programs THAAD and the MEADs program when we get that going. That's about $2,500,000,000 worth of business a year. What's not included in that and off the top of my head, I'm not sure I've got A definitive number for you is the air missile defense and ballistic missile defense activities that we do At RMS, this is for things like Aegis Ashore, but also some of the Aegis BMD work.
But I'm going to if I had to guess a ballpark, it's probably $500,000,000 there. And then arguably, you could say some of the Space Base Early Warning satellites at Space Systems are also some of that. If you just kind of combine all those things together, I guess I could do some of the C2 command and control activities that we do as well. So Maybe $3,000,000,000 $3,500,000,000 worth of air missile defense and BMD work across literally 3 of the 4 Business areas that we have today.
What's the second part?
The second part of the question was FASC. That's right, FASCAS and the new format. So FASCAS doesn't change because of the new format. It just changes how much of pension expense is reflected in Operating income versus non operating, it's one of the reasons quite honestly that we've always focused more on segment operating profit As opposed to operating profit because segment operating profit is unaffected by this. But if you just take a step back and take a look at FAS, Going forward, we expect FASCAS to increase pretty significantly over the next few years.
I still see in the year 2020 excuse me, 2020 that we're going to have FAS income rather than FAS expense. And so just to maybe size that for you, you should think of the CAS Expense between sort of now and 2022 as we look forward staying at about $2,500,000,000 a year, But the FAS expense is going to decrease every year over that period of time and actually go to become income In 2020 and higher income in 2021 and higher than that in 2022. So the FASCAS adjustment will pick up steam quite a bit Starting next year and every year thereafter at least as we can see it all the way through 2022 and beyond.
And next we'll go to Hunter Keay with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks everybody. A little bit more on missile defense. Marilyn, you obviously talked about in your prepared remarks. Bruce, thanks for the color you just gave. You've obviously had a lot of success in midcourse and terminal, but no one's really been able to crack the code on boost And I don't know if this is also an embedded tax reform question about maybe freeing up some money for some R and D, but how do you expect Lockheed to participate And the missile defense forum and maybe a boost phase capacity going forward.
Is there an opportunity to really kind of think
ahead on
that and kind of own that realm as you're able to sort of think forward? You talked about layered missile defense, that's a big part of it.
That's a great question, Hunter. And we do look across all elements of helping our Customers address those priorities. And we are investing in research and development. So one of the tests that we did recently, We call it Nifka, but it was a Navy test where we tested our Aegis system with the capabilities of an F-thirty 5 And we're able to have the F-thirty five identify the launch of A target well in advance of when the Aegis radar would have seen it. So bringing a lot of our capabilities together into a total System solution is one of the areas that we're investing in and demonstrating some of that capability across domains within our organization to provide those kind of capabilities to our customers.
Beyond that, we continue to look at a range of things that we're investing in such as hypersonics and Directed Energy and things that would help with any kind of a threat that comes early on. And as Bruce outlined for you, we have several systems that are in that defense mode of Addressing all phases of a missile launch. Anything you want to
add, Bruce? The only thing I would add, Hunter, is No one has the portfolio that Lockheed Martin does in terms of layered defense. I mean, you think of the products We offer PAC-three THAAD, the overhead assets with satellites, the incredible fusion of sensors That comes from NAV-thirty five and being able to feed that to an Aegis system for instance. Having said that, what's termed left of launch It's a vexing problem to be solved. And Marilyn hit some of the opportunities that we are looking at To do that, hypersonic capabilities in terms of weapons is one of those things that we are definitely looking at to help solve that problem.
But that is high on our list of some of the more vexing problems that we're trying to solve for. And Definitely one that we are investing in and we'll continue to invest in with our technologists going forward because it is an It is something that we bring a unique perspective to with all the assets of our portfolio.
But your point under Using some of the savings out of tax reform to go invest back into these areas, I think that is right in line with what We'll support our customers and we'll support the defense of our nation.
And next we'll go to Jon Raviv with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Hi, John.
What is the path looking like to accelerating Sales growth beyond 2018, I know that there's some specific items impacting this upcoming year, but just thinking about getting back to that 3% to 5% in 2019 and beyond, some of the things you have good visibility on there. And then also how is that acceleration or how is the shape of that curve Impacted by some of the recent budget action, whether it's extended CR, sequester count still in place versus Congress marking up budgets to much higher levels than what the President has even requested.
Yes. So John, I'll take that one on. As far as the path, As you described it to accelerating and I would describe 2018 as sort of a transition year. We had obviously significant growth in 2017. All four business areas, as I talked about, grew individually.
We don't have that situation in 2018. But as we look forward, and I think I teed this up on the October call, 2018 was a bit of a lull and then 2019 2020, we expect both those years to be Somewhere in the 4% to 5% growth range as we look at our outlook right now. And to sort of tie that into your question on the budget and the impact CR, I don't think CR does a whole lot of impact in 2018. In fact, I know it doesn't. Longer term, I'm not sure it has a huge impact on 2019 I will say this though, the 4% or 5% that we're talking about is sort of based on the current Presidential budget outlook, so some of the numbers that are being tossed about, including most recently by the President himself for 2019 As well as some of the comments that Secretary Mattis has made about 2019 being sort of the year that he's going to put his stamp, those are my words, On the DoD budget, those aren't baked into the numbers that I just talked about with the 4% to 5% growth.
Assuming those come in at anywhere near the level or the higher levels that we're talking about, I'd like to see us be able to at least Hey, John, this is Greg. We've got time for one more question.
Certainly. And that will be Rob Spingarn with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning.
Good morning, Rob.
If it's okay, I'd like to ask 2 things. Bruce, just quickly, one for Bruce, one for Marilyn. On the outlook, on the 'nineteen, 'twenty cash flow, if we were to normalize free cash flow and take the free cash flow and take the $7,000,000,000 from your Chart 12 and knock off CapEx of a little over $1,000,000,000 And maybe normalized for the pension contribution, would it be fair to say free cash flow on a normalized basis is in the high 4s, almost 5,000,000,000
So I would have said it's in the high fives. When you said normalized For pension contribution, you're trying to say.
Well, I'm putting in what a normal pension contribution. In other words,
if we
smooth what
you're doing.
Beyond 2020, you mean, Ram?
Well, yes, or if we were to factor what you spent this year, the early contribution and normalized for it. In other words, we have a timing Situation here, and I want to think about what the normalized free cash flow is on an ongoing basis.
Yes. You should again think of I mean the simplistic way I think of it John is cash from operations at least for 2019 2020 is $7,000,000,000 It's kind of what we teed up there. 1.3 I've talked about in 2019 From a CapEx perspective actually going lower than that, so let's just call it $1,200,000,000 or so. You've got a $5,750,000,000 $5,800,000,000 free cash flow number pre any pension funding. And as I said, the contributions starting in 2020 are significantly lower than the contributions that we had that were required in 2019 2020, Probably by an order of half those contributions that were required.
And again, depending on how we do with asset returns With the additional $3,400,000,000 I'm hopeful 2018 is another year of strong asset returns. That number could get smaller. So I think simplistically thinking free cash flow, we're close to $20 a share In 2019 2020 and dependent upon what the pension contributions are required in 2020 and beyond.
You said 2020, but you mean 2021. 2021, I'm sorry.
Yes. Thank you, Mary. Rob, you had
a question for me or? Okay. Well Looks
like we lost him.
Looks like we lost him. Okay. I guess we'll wrap up the call then, John. Thank you. Thank you all for joining us on the call today.
I want to end this call by reiterating that we really had An exceptional year, a very strong year and it's because of our outstanding portfolio and our robust backlog that we are We continue to be well positioned to deliver substantial value to our customers and to our stockholders. So that concludes our call today, John.
Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.