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Earnings Call: Q4 2017

Mar 1, 2017

Operator

Morning, everyone, and welcome to Lowe's Companies Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded. Please note, if you pressed star one to enter the question queue prior to the start of today's call, your signal did not register. You will need to press star one again to enter the queue. Also, supplemental reference slides are available on Lowe's Investor Relations website within the investor packet. While management will not be speaking directly to the slides, these slides are meant to facilitate your review of the company's results and to be used as a reference document following the call. During this call, management will be using certain non-GAAP financial measures. The supplemental reference slides include information about these measures and a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

Statements made during this call will include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Management's expectations and opinions reflected in those statements are subject to risks, and the company can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Those risks are described in the company's earnings release and in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Hosting today's conference will be Mr. Robert Niblock, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Mike McDermott, Chief Customer Officer, and Mr. Bob Hull, Chief Financial Officer. Joining during the Q&A session will be Mr. Rick Damron, Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Richard Maltsbarger, Chief Development Officer and President, International, and Mr. Marshall Croom, incoming Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the program over to Mr. Niblock for opening remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Robert A. Niblock
Chairman, President, and CEO, Lowe's

Good morning, and thanks for your interest in Lowe's. I'm pleased that we delivered a strong quarter with comparable sales growth of 5.1%, exceeding our expectations. Our comp growth was driven by a 4% increase in comp average ticket and a 1.1% increase in comp transactions. Our U.S. business achieved 5.1% comps for the quarter, with positive comps in all 14 regions. During the quarter, we delivered positive comps in 12 of 13 product categories. We drove strong holiday performance with our Winter Wonderland experience, as well as compelling offers in appliances and tools. A favorable macro backdrop, our strength in omni-channel retailing, and our project expertise drove demand across the quarter with interior category outperformance in kitchens, appliances, and rough plumbing and electrical, and outdoor strength in lawn and garden, and lumber and building materials.

Our emphasis on providing better omni-channel experiences positions us well for continued success, enabling us to better connect with customers and provide the advice and assistance they count on when completing their home improvement projects, whether they choose to connect in the store, online, in their home, or through our contact centers. We continue to see strength in our Project Specialist Interiors program with strong double-digit comp growth this quarter, and we posted 25% comp growth on lowes.com, driven by robust growth in both transactions and ticket following our website redesign in Q2. This is a testament to the growing strength of our omni-channel platform. Pro customer sales were robust, with another quarter of comp growth well above the company average. We're proud of our success with the Pro customer and continue to make investments to expand our capabilities to better serve this important customer.

We also drove continued strong performance in international markets with double-digit comps in Mexico and mid-single-digit comps in Canada in local currency. We are pleased with the progress and early success on the integration of Rona, including the execution of our e-commerce strategy, rollout of appliances, and store conversions, and remain excited by this compelling opportunity to bring together Lowe's global scale and resources with Rona's local expertise. For the quarter, we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $0.86, a 46% increase compared to last year's fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.59. Delivering our commitment to return excess cash to shareholders, in the quarter, we repurchased $551 million in stock under our share repurchase program and paid $306 million in dividends. Turning to full-year fiscal 2016 results, we delivered comparable sales growth of 4.2%, with all regions and product categories achieving positive comps.

Sales growth, combined with our sharp focus on improving profitability, led to a 21% increase in adjusted earnings per share. Our fourth quarter and full year 2016 results demonstrate the strong foundation we are building to enhance the value we provide to customers and further differentiate Lowe's in the marketplace. Along with improved operating results, we made meaningful progress this year expanding our customer reach and advancing our omni-channel capabilities, as evidenced by the rollout of our interior project specialists across all U.S. stores, our successful redesign of lowes.com, strengthening our market position in Canada with the acquisition of Rona, and deepening and broadening our relationship with the pro customer. We have entered 2017 from a position of strength as macroeconomic fundamentals remain favorable and are aligned for another solid year of home improvement industry growth.

The industry is poised to grow its share of wallet as a percent of overall consumer spending and should benefit from strong consumer balance sheets and debt service ratios near record lows, as well as continued job gains and income growth. Credit usage continues to improve, supplementing the spending power generated by stronger incomes. We expect housing in 2017 to remain a bright spot. Rising home prices should continue to encourage homeowners to engage in more discretionary projects, in addition to ongoing maintenance and repair spending. Improving incomes and household financial conditions should continue to be a catalyst for household formation, which will help sustain home buying and related spending. Expected growth in the home improvement market is further supported by the results of our fourth quarter consumer sentiment survey, which revealed that post-election, homeowners have an increasingly favorable view of the national economy and their personal financial situation.

We believe this trend will continue, as almost half of the homeowners we surveyed indicated that they are very likely to begin a home improvement project in the next six months. More than half of homeowners believe that home values are rising and will continue to increase. In 2017, we look to build upon our strong foundation to better serve the needs of a rapidly changing customer and capitalize on a favorable macro backdrop. As discussed at our December Analyst and Investor Conference, we are focused on three strategic pillars to drive value for customers and shareholders. First, we are dedicated to expanding our home improvement reach and ultimately serving more customers, DIY, DIFM, and the Pro more effectively. We will further differentiate ourselves by establishing market leadership for home improvements project solutions. Second, we are developing capabilities to anticipate and support customers' changing needs.

We're evolving our business to further drive trust and loyalty by empowering customers at every critical moment of their project journey. That includes advancing our customer capabilities through our omni-channel assets. Finally, we are committed to generating long-term profitable growth and substantial returns for shareholders. Across the enterprise, we are actively seeking to enhance our operating discipline and focus and make productivity a core strength. This laser focus on improving productivity will not detract from our ongoing efforts to deliver customer-centric omni-channel experiences. Rather, we see these efforts as complementary, and together will further strengthen our relevance and allow for investment in future capabilities to grow the business and better connect with customers. These efforts give us confidence in our business outlook for 2017. Bob will share those details in a few minutes.

I would like to express my appreciation to our employees for their unwavering commitment to anticipating and serving customers' evolving needs. We're proud of our employees and their tireless effort to help customers love where they live. Our employees fuel our success and have been instrumental in enabling our transformation to a customer-centric, omni-channel home improvement company. Before I close, I would like to take a moment to personally thank Bob for his distinguished service and his many contributions over the past 17 years, including 14 years as our CFO. During his tenure, Bob's financial discipline and leadership have played an invaluable role in our growth and transformation to an omni-channel home improvement company, while at the same time delivering exceptional returns to our shareholders. We congratulate Bob on his retirement.

We look forward to a smooth transition as Marshall Croom, a 20-year Lowe's veteran with over 30 years of deep financial and operational experience, transitions to his new role as our CFO. Marshall's extensive experience and intimate knowledge of our business, coupled with his proven leadership, positions us well for future success. Thanks again for your interest. With that, let me turn the call over to Mike.

Michael P. McDermott
Chief Customer Officer, Lowe's

Thanks, Robert, and good morning, everyone. As Robert shared with you, we delivered a strong quarter with positive comps across all regions and 12 of 13 product categories. Growth driven by both average ticket and transactions. We leveraged our omni-channel platform, project expertise, customer experience design capabilities, and enhanced digital marketing to deliver strong holiday performance. Our Winter Wonderland experience provided an inspirational holiday showroom where customers could see everything from artificial trees and poinsettias to indoor and outdoor decorations, providing cohesive decorating solutions for the holidays. We connected our compelling in-store display with digital assets, leveraging Pinterest, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube, as well as a seamless shopping experience on lowes.com. In addition to evolving our holiday experience, we've also continued to innovate with our product assortment and exclusives, such as our Disney LightShow.

The customer response to our Winter Wonderland experience was strong, driving comp sales increase of 8%. We also drove strong comps through our holiday events, with Black Friday representing our largest sales day in company history, both in-store and online. We expanded our events, capitalizing on customer excitement for the season with compelling offers in tools, holiday decor, and appliances. Throughout the quarter, we captured project demand, leveraging our in-store experiences, in-home selling program, strong value proposition, enhanced online selling tools, and improved marketing speed from our digital capabilities, driving gains in multiple categories. We recorded above-average comps in appliances, lawn and garden, kitchens, lumber and building materials, and rough plumbing and electrical. We saw broad-based strength in both indoor and outdoor projects. We drove high single-digit comps in appliances, leveraging our investments in customer experience both in-store and online.

In-store, our appliance suites, showcasing coordinated appliances, allow customers to visualize how their appliance purchase will look in their refreshed or remodeled kitchen. Online, we have enhanced the customer experience and presentation, including improved product search, integrated and upgraded product videos, enhanced product presentation like 360-degree views, and simplified product groupings to make it easy for customers to select their products. Our focus on advancing the customer experience through our omni-channel assets, together with leading brands, breadth of assortment, competitive pricing, knowledgeable sales specialists, as well as delivery and haul away services, drove our share gains in appliances. This quarter, we also delivered high single-digit comps in kitchens, led by strength in cabinets and countertops through a combination of targeted promotions, our investments in project specialists who meet customers in their homes, and our strategy of focusing the entire kitchen project.

In order to sell the complete kitchen, we display our products, including cabinets and countertops, immediately adjacent to our appliance offering. We're leveraging our customer experience design capabilities to create store sets that inspire customers to envision a variety of project possibilities, such as a series of kitchen vignettes to show all the elements of a complex installation, like a kitchen remodel, pulled together into a beautiful finished project. We're using our stores as an additional source of inspiration while making the buying process for projects simpler and more intuitive. We also saw strength in outdoor project categories. We achieved high single-digit comps in lawn and garden as customers in the South and West took advantage of warmer weather early in the quarter to complete lawn and garden projects.

We also achieved strong comps in lumber and building materials, driven by continued demand related to recovery efforts from Hurricane Matthew and the Louisiana flooding. Not to mention the strong performance with our pro customer. As customers engage in both indoor and outdoor projects, we leverage our omni-channel capabilities to help them throughout their project journey. We drove 25% comp growth on lowes.com, as well as above-average comp growth from our in-home sales program. Our interior and exterior project specialists represent another important element of our omni-channel strategy as they serve the do-it-for-me customer who needs a bit more help navigating their project while we meet them in their homes to design, plan, pull together products across multiple categories, and manage their project to completion.

We're also deepening and broadening our relationship with the pro customer, driving comps well above the company average with our outstanding portfolio of brands, our strong value proposition through our five ways to save, as well as our omni-channel offering through our growing pro services team and lowesforpros.com. We continue to evolve our capabilities to connect with the pro across channels. We're seeing the pro engage more in the channels that best fit their unique needs, whether that's online with lowesforpros.com, at the market level with our account executive pro services specialists, or at our stores with our dedicated in-store pro services teams. Our AEPs have been very effective in growing our business with larger pro customers, especially maintenance, repair, and operations or MRO customers, further solidifying our relationship and targeting property management companies as they make more trips and shop more categories across our platform.

We've greatly improved our pro offering with key brand introductions and investments in the breadth of assortment to ensure that pro customers have the right selection of products, ultimately serving as a one-stop-shop, a place where pros can purchase all the products they need to complete their project and get back to the job site quickly. Our 15% comp in pneumatics this quarter, driven by our home channel exclusives with Hitachi and BOSTITCH, the top two brands in pneumatics, is a testament to the power of our successful brand partnerships. We're also reconnecting pros who we have not recently purchased at Lowe's to show them what's changed in our stores and online using targeted marketing, including expanded digital capabilities, as well as exclusive pro offers to drive awareness and generate new business.

We've also enhanced our Buy in Bulk program with new signage in store, a new digital focus on lowesforpros.com, and marketing campaigns designed to drive awareness of the great values we provide this customer. During the quarter, we also demonstrated the strength and flexibility of our supply chain as we were faced with a variety of weather conditions, ranging from unseasonably warm temperatures to severe winter storms. We're proud to say that we were able to serve customers regardless of unpredictable weather. Our supply chain demonstrated agility and flexibility, holding inventory centrally, then working to efficiently move product to areas of heightened demand to meet customers' needs, reaching areas in the path of storms within hours of impact. We continue to focus on opportunities to drive further efficiencies in our supply chain as well.

In addition to our efforts to drive top-line growth, we also continue to focus on making productivity a core strength while investing in the areas that matter most to customers. The latter portion of the quarter, we rolled out a new store staffing model across all U.S. Lowe's home improvement stores to ensure that we are optimally prepared for the upcoming spring selling season. The changes streamline our management structure, provide better leadership and accountability to drive improved customer experiences. We're also expanding our central production offices, moving scheduling of installation services from a store-level activity to a more efficient, centralized approach in our call centers, enhancing consistency and proficiency of communication, and delivering a better customer experience. We're pleased with our fourth quarter results and the progress we're continuing to make on our initiatives to drive top-line growth, enhance our productivity and profitability, and position Lowe's for the future.

Turning our attention to the first quarter, as spring approaches, we're excited about our omni-channel kitchen and bath and outdoor refresh events, which offer unique customer touchpoints, compelling content, and superior values. Our events coordinate engaging experience for customers designed to capitalize on their excitement for the season, including our refreshed seasonal pad and new online patio experience that showcases curated collections and the latest in-style trends. Our new grill display, featuring Weber Genesis and Char-Broil grill innovations. We'll leverage the national launch of our in-home selling program during our kitchen and bath event and all year long to help customers bring their project aspirations to life. We're also excited about our upcoming Pro events, delivering great values both in-store and online at lowesforpros.com. Thank you for your interest in Lowe's, and I'll now turn the call over to Bob.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Sales for the fourth quarter were $15.8 billion, an increase of 19.2%. Total customer transactions grew 15.1%, and total average ticket increased 3.6% to $69.58. The transaction growth was aided by both the 53rd week and RONA. The extra week in the period added roughly $950 million in sales, contributing 7.1% to sales growth. RONA sales were approximately $825 million or 6.2% of sales growth. Comp sales were 5.1%, driven by an average ticket increase of 4% and transaction growth of 1.1%. The comp sales calculation included 14 weeks this year versus the comparable 14-week period. Looking at monthly trends, comps were 4.7% in November, 6.3% in December, and 4.2% in January. We estimate that weather positively impacted comp sales in the quarter by approximately 100 basis points.

The majority of this came from serving customers in storm-impacted areas in the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew and the flooding in Louisiana. Lastly, new stores drove 80 basis points of growth. For the year, total sales were $65 billion, an increase of 10.1%, driven by comp sales of 4.2%, RONA contributing 3.8%, the 53rd week adding 1.6%, and new stores. Gross margin for the fourth quarter was 34.1% to sales, which decreased 25 basis points from Q4 last year. Gross margin was negatively impacted by RONA due to both purchase accounting adjustments and the mix of business. In the quarter, these items negatively impacted gross margin by 25 basis points. SG&A for the quarter was 23.99% to sales, which leveraged 455 basis points. In last year's fourth quarter, we recorded a $530 million non-cash impairment charge associated with the decision to exit our Australian joint venture.

This year-over-year comparison drove 403 basis points of expense leverage. In Q4 2016, we experienced 59 basis points of benefits leverage, primarily related to incentive comp, as we had lower attainment levels relative to last year. We also experienced leverage in store environment, store payroll, and many other lines as a result of the strong sales growth in the quarter. Somewhat offsetting these items were severance-related costs for organizational changes that are a part of our comprehensive effort to focus and prioritize resources. The changes resulted in a charge of $84 million, which caused 53 basis points of deleverage. Depreciation and amortization for the quarter was $374 million, which was 2.37% of sales and leveraged 44 basis points. Earnings before interest and taxes or operating income increased 474 basis points to 8.05% of sales. For Q4, we estimate that the 53rd week aided EBIT by roughly 30 basis points.

The severance-related costs hurt EBIT by 53 basis points in the quarter. The RONA impacts associated with purchase accounting adjustments, the mix of business, and integration costs negatively impacted EBIT by 36 basis points in the quarter. For the quarter, interest expense was $159 million. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 40.3%. The higher rate was driven by a tax charge primarily related to final Internal Revenue Code Section 987 regulations, which triggered the reversal of deferred tax assets associated with cumulative currency translation adjustments for our international operations. Earnings per share was $0.74 for the quarter, including approximately $0.08 from the 53rd week. There were a number of discrete items not in our business outlook that impacted EPS for the quarter. First, the charge associated with severance-related costs hurt EPS by approximately $0.06.

The impact of the new tax regulation noted a moment ago reduced earnings per share by $0.04. There was a $0.02 negative impact associated with the takeout of RONA's preferred shares in the quarter, which reduced net earnings allocable to common shareholders in the EPS calculation. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.86, which was 45.8% higher than Q4 2015's adjusted $0.59. For 2016, adjusted earnings per share of $3.99 were up 21.3% versus 2015. The extra week in 2016 aided EPS growth by 250 basis points. Now to a few items on the balance sheet, starting with assets. Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter was $558 million. Inventory at nearly $10.5 billion increased $1 billion or 10.6% versus the end of last year.

Just over 60% of the increase related to the addition of RONA, with the balance to support strong sales growth. Inventory turnover was 4.05, up 13 basis points to last year. Asset turnover increased five basis points to 1.85. Moving on to the liability section of the balance sheet, accounts payable of $6.7 billion represents a $1 billion or 18.1% increase over Q4 last year due to the timing of purchases year-over-year, terms improvement, as well as the addition of RONA. At the end of the fourth quarter, lease-adjusted debt to EBITDAR was 2.21 times. Return on invested capital was 15.8%. The impact of the charges hurt ROIC by 154 basis points.

Looking at the statement of cash flows, annual operating cash flow was $5.6 billion and capital expenditures were $1.2 billion, resulting in free cash flow of over $4.4 billion, which was up 24% to last year. In November, we entered into a $190 million accelerated share repurchase agreement, which settled in the quarter for 2.6 million shares. We also repurchased approximately five million shares for $361 million through the open market. In total, we repurchased $551 million of stock in the quarter and $3.5 billion for the year. In January, our board of directors authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program. The new program has no expiration date, and when combined with our prior share repurchase program, we have approximately $5.1 billion remaining authorization. Looking ahead, I'd like to address several of the items detailed in Lowe's business outlook.

In 2017, we expect total sales increase of approximately 5%. The sales increase is driven by a number of factors. First, we are forecasting a comp sales increase of approximately 3.5%. Second, sales growth will be higher for the first five months until we anniversary the RONA acquisition, which drives about 2% growth. Also, we plan to open 35 stores, which adds approximately 1%. However, total sales growth will be reduced by roughly 1.5% related to the comparison of 52 weeks in 2017 versus 53 weeks in 2016. On an adjusted basis, we are anticipating an EBIT increase of approximately 50 basis points, driven entirely by expense leverage. For 2017, we expect expenses to grow at roughly 60% of sales growth. Regarding EBIT, a full year of RONA results versus roughly seven months last year will pressure EBIT by an estimated 15-20 basis points for 2017.

The effective tax rate is expected to be 37.8%. For the year, we expect earnings per share of approximately $4.64, which represents a 16.3% increase over 2016's adjusted EPS. On a 52 versus 52 week basis, EPS growth will be 240 basis points higher. In comparing our guidance model to First Call estimates, the quarterly earnings per share estimates look fine, but there are a couple items I'd like to address related to the complexion of Q1. There is a calendar week shift as a result of 2016's 53rd week. This year's first quarter will include one less week of winter and one more week of spring than last year. While this has no impact on comp sales, it does benefit first quarter total sales by approximately $500 million.

As I mentioned a moment ago, the mix of RONA's business will impact EBIT until we anniversary the acquisition in the second quarter. The estimated negative impact for the first quarter EBIT is approximately 60 basis points. We are forecasting cash flows from operations to be approximately $5.9 billion and CapEx expenditures of approximately $1.4 billion. This results in an estimated free cash flow of approximately $4.5 billion for 2017. Our guidance consumes approximately $3.5 billion in share repurchases for 2017. Regina, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

To ask a question, press *1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press the # key. In order to allow questions from as many individuals as possible, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question will come from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Simeon Gutman
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thanks. Good morning. A question for Bob Hull, and wish you well, Bob. It's something I asked at Investor Day, thinking about the flow-through for 2017. I think the guidance was somewhere around 25 basis points for every point of comp above one. The question then is the same now. What's driving it? I think it implies slightly higher incremental margins than what the business has been delivering. What's changing, and any other color on that? Thanks.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Thanks, Simeon. As we look at the outlook for 2017, on an adjusted basis, we're looking at 50 basis points of EBIT expansion. I commented that the impact of the full year RONA results versus seven months in 2016 pressures us by 15-20. If you take the midpoint of that, call it 67 basis points with the 3.5 comp, the flow-through per point of comp up of one is about 27 basis points. We feel good about that. As I indicated, we're expecting flattish gross margin for the year with all of that increase coming from expense leverage.

Simeon Gutman
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

My follow-up, more of a near-term question, no secret that February and March are tough compares. Seems like the business has good momentum through January. I know you don't normally comment on it. Curious if you have any thoughts, I don't think tax returns are normally a factor for this segment. Just curious on sort of what you're seeing currently in the business.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Simeon, Q1's off to a great start. We're ahead of plan. We're really excited about 2017.

Simeon Gutman
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Thanks. Good luck.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Peter Benedict with Robert Baird. Please go ahead.

Peter Benedict
Analyst, Robert Baird

Hi, guys. I had a question kind of around the marketing plans for 2017. I'm not sure you'll divulge too much, but just remind us, I think marketing was kind of an issue last year, at least during the middle part of the year. How are you planning it to do that differently as we look through 2017? That's my first question.

Michael P. McDermott
Chief Customer Officer, Lowe's

Peter, this is Mike McDermott. We're excited to welcome Jocelyn Wong to the expanded role of Chief Marketing Officer. She's going to have responsibilities in 2017 for customer experience design, content strategy and development, customer relationship management, and advertising and media across all of our U.S. home improvement businesses. We think we've got the right collection of areas to focus on. I'm confident that she and the team will continue to enhance our efforts to drive a more integrated and omni-channel approach, recognizing that we have a number of touch points to leverage with our customers to drive traffic. You'll see us be very focused on connecting with customers with more personalized messages really tailored to meet their specific needs. We'll continue to reach out and leverage the advances we've made in our assortment and our offering with a pro customer.

We've got a lot of activity going on in marketing. I feel very, very good about our new campaign, the team's really poised for success in 2017.

Peter Benedict
Analyst, Robert Baird

That's helpful. Thanks, Mike. Maybe one for Bob. The hurricane and the flooding impacts, do you expect that to continue, Bob, through 2017 or so? Anything that you need to call out on that front? Thank you.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Pete, we do expect some benefit in 2017. We do, however, expect that to wane as the year progresses, especially as we get closer to the activity in the second half of 2016.

Peter Benedict
Analyst, Robert Baird

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Matt Fassler with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Matt Fassler
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thanks a lot. Good morning. Bob Hull, best of luck to you going forward. I know that at your analyst conference in December, you spoke about the effort to align costs, and that had followed a difficult third quarter on the expense line. I guess there have been two rounds of activity that we've essentially read about, one relating to some restructuring the stores, a second more recently relating to some restructuring at headquarters. If you could just help frame some of that activity in the context of the plan that you set out in December, particularly with regard to how roles are changing in the stores and around the organization, how labor dollars are being reallocated, and then how that flows into your financial outlook. Thank you so much.

Robert A. Niblock
Chairman, President, and CEO, Lowe's

Yeah, Matt, it's Robert Niblock. I'll start. As you're aware, we have announced some staffing changes over the last 30 days or so, both in the store and at the corporate office here. As we see this rapid shift that's changing in customer expectations and what they expect of retailers, our whole movement to be a customer-centric, omni-channel home improvement company really dictated that we needed to allocate our resources differently so that we could better meet the needs of customers. It's something we have to continually do, obviously, as we make sure we have our resources in the right places so we continue to meet their needs. From a store standpoint, I think our new staffing model helps ensures that we're optimally prepared, hopefully for the upcoming spring selling season.

The changes we made in the store we think will really improve our leadership capabilities with an enhanced focus on training and really empowering our associates to deliver on an improved experience for the customer. We're really pleased with the receptivity we've seen in getting that done before ahead of the spring selling season. Here at the corporate office, the changes we just made at the corporate headquarters are really designed to create a more agile, efficient, and customer-focused operating structure. As we continue to migrate from being a single channel retailer to an omni-channel home improvement company, we really need to step back and make sure that we had our resources aligned in the proper way so we can best take advantage of the opportunity that we see in front of us.

As we've talked for many quarters here, online, in-home, contact centers, those other things that are part of our omni-channel strategy are where we're seeing the highest growth, and we want to make sure we had our resources aligned behind that. We're excited about it. It's always tough when you make those changes that impact people's lives. I think it's the right thing to do to continue to move us forward and capitalize on the opportunity we see ahead of us.

Matt Fassler
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

All right. Thank you.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Related to the impact to our guidance provided at the analyst conference, they were incorporated in the outlook that we shared at that time.

Matt Fassler
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you so much.

Robert A. Niblock
Chairman, President, and CEO, Lowe's

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Horvers with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Christopher Horvers
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Thanks. Good morning, guys, and best of luck, Bob. It's been a pleasure all these years. Wanted to talk about the sort of outlook that you put out in December, specifically related to 2017. There's this big pause in the industry over the summer, but things have accelerated strongly. Two parts to the question. In retrospect, what do you think drove that pause? Thinking about what you were looking at when you put your Analyst Day outlook, did that affect your outlook? In other words, it appears the backdrop has actually accelerated since then. Do you think that your outlook could prove conservative in that regard? I guess better asked, did that summer pause actually impact how you put out for guidance?

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Chris, we look at a number of factors. Macroeconomic factors, our ongoing performance, input from vendor partners and other sources to try to understand what's going on with the consumer industry demand drivers, et cetera. Certainly as we came out of the third quarter and saw trends in fourth quarter leading up to the December meeting, we're certainly aware of our performance. Also mindful of actions we were taking to drive consumer demand, to drive productivity, et cetera. What I would say is, we talk about our outlook for the year is I feel really comfortable about our opportunity to hit the 464 for the year. It's going to happen differently than we planned it, but as far as getting the EPS, I think there's confidence with the team that figure's more than achievable.

Christopher Horvers
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

I guess it's not as if from a top-line perspective that summer pause really impacted putting out the 3.5% comp guide.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

No real impact, Chris.

Christopher Horvers
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay. One follow-up. Can you share with us-- I'm assuming you're going to report comparable weeks, same store sales for comparable weeks. Can you share with us what the comparable same store sales would have been based on the week shift in 2016?

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Our comparable sales calculation does use the comparable weeks. Week 53 of 2016 comped over week 1 of 2016, which is the comparable week for the period. Which is consistent with how we've reported comps the prior three 53-week years since I've been CFO.

Christopher Horvers
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay. We can look at what you reported as comps last year as the right comparable when we're putting our estimates together.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

The 14-week period was compared against the comparable 14-week period. Yes, the comps as reported are what they are.

Christopher Horvers
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Understood. I can follow up. Thanks very much.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS. Please go ahead.

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Bob, best of luck. Robert, I wanted to ask about the increasing focus on productivity. Your SG&A per foot stands around $70. There's obviously a lot of moving pieces in there, but what do you see as the optimal level of SG&A per square foot? Is there a way to size the aggregate opportunity from your productivity measures? How do you harvest that opportunity on enhancing the culture to ensure that you have the necessary level of in-store execution?

Robert A. Niblock
Chairman, President, and CEO, Lowe's

Well, Michael, I don't think we really measure it that way. What I can tell you is that as we've gone through and looked at, as I said earlier, the evolution as we've gone from a single channel retailer to an omni-channel home improvement company. We certainly have made changes along the way, the way that we have reallocated resources. When you look at the continual shift that you see taking place in the customer in the way that they want to interact with us, you realize that we need to continue to evolve. If you think about it, you're sitting back with an organizational structure today that has evolved over time, not the one that you would've designed from scratch if you were starting out as an omni-channel company.

As we continue to see that evolution, we said we really need to step back and say, okay, where do resources need to be allocated at the corporate office? We took out some spans and layers to make us a more agile, nimble organization from a corporate office standpoint, so that hopefully we can better respond to opportunities, better respond to the stores and our other channels out there that are taking care of the customer on a daily basis. Also did some hard look at our management structure in the stores to say, how can we ensure that we're organized in the right way to make sure that from a leadership standpoint, we're leading people in a way that's going to provide a better experience.

It was really more driven from that standpoint, where if we look at productivity more, how do we take dollars and reinvest them in the areas that will drive better performance? Yeah, there's obviously through that process, there's a cost savings impact as well, but it's also if we get them aligned appropriately, then we think we drive better performance, which leads to the productivity loop.

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

Okay. My follow-up question is on the average comp ticket growth during the quarter of 400 basis points, driven by the 9% increase in the transactions above 500. Presumably, that was helped by the above-average growth in appliances and in kitchens. Was there something from an execution standpoint that you did better that contributed to the growth, or do you think that it was just growth from the marketplace?

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

You're right. It was strength of our kitchen and appliance business in the quarter, Michael, that drove that. Also, the above-average pro performance is a driver for growth and average ticket. Certainly as we take a look at our own execution, we strive to be better every day. As the items that Mike described in his comments were all items of focus for the quarter to allow us to take advantage of demand and serve customers.

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

Thank you so much.

Robert A. Niblock
Chairman, President, and CEO, Lowe's

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Robert Iannarone
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Good morning, guys. Congrats on a good quarter. Robert Iannarone on for Scot. Just two quick ones. Given some of the volatility you guys have experienced in the top line over the course of the year, what gives you confidence in your comp outlook of 3.5% for the year? Have you seen any changes to trend in the Northeast specifically? I think the pro was a little bit weaker last quarter.

Robert A. Niblock
Chairman, President, and CEO, Lowe's

Yeah, this is Robert. We did see continued improvement in the North in our performance there. I think certainly some of the actions that the team has taken to better resonate with the customer has certainly started to take traction. We're pleased with the improvement in performance that we saw there. As we look at 2017, if you look at whether it's the underlying macro fundamentals that are out there, still seeing a very healthy housing market, whether it's from a turnover standpoint, whether it's from an appreciation standpoint on housing. Incomes continuing to rise as we spoke about employment continuing to improve. All of those things, I think, set up home improvement to continue to gain shares as a percentage of share of wallet in 2017. I think it sets us up well for this year.

On top of that, behind our post-election, we've actually seen from our consumer sentiment survey, a really strong increase in homeowners' intention to invest in their home and start a project over the next six months as we talked about. As we look at just the underlying factors, some of the momentum that we saw coming out of our quarterly consumer sentiment survey, it sets us up well that a 3.5% comp should be achievable as we look out to 2017.

Robert Iannarone
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks for that. Just one follow-up. Can you guys give us any idea of what the productivity and cost savings are on more of a run rate basis from some of the recent changes you made last quarter and you've talked about incurring this quarter?

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

As we talked about in addressing Matt's question, the productivity savings were contemplated in the model we put together at December analyst conference and consistent as the outlook today. What I would say is, as you think about prior EBIT expansion or prior flow through expectations, there was a component of gross margin in there. We've taken that out, and the entirety of the flow through in EBIT expansion is driven by expense leverage. It's embedded in our SG&A outlook for the year going forward.

Robert Iannarone
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Great. Thanks for that, guys.

Robert A. Niblock
Chairman, President, and CEO, Lowe's

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Melich with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Greg Melich
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Hi, thanks. First congrats, Bob, and thanks for all the help over the years.

Marshall, welcome back to the jungle. That's the only way I can put it.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Yes, sir.

Greg Melich
Analyst, Evercore ISI

I have two questions. One is what was commodity inflation in the fourth quarter? If you look at your guidance for this year, what do you have factored in? I had a follow-up on.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

In the fourth quarter, Greg, we actually had modest deflation. We had building material deflation of 25 basis points driven by roofing insulation, which offset the, call it 15 basis points of inflation in lumber. For 2017, there's only very modest inflation contemplated for the year.

Greg Melich
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Modest would be something less than 20 or 30 basis points?

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Less than 20.

Greg Melich
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Okay. On ticket, I saw that it was up 9% for the larger tickets. Could you help us understand a little bit more as to how much of that would've been, say, driven by appliances versus really building the Pro basket, and driving Pro? Thanks.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Greg, really don't have a decomposition of that 9% growth in front of me. It is all of the above, right? It is the strength of the performance in those categories and the tactics we've been taking over the number of years to better serve Pro customers that are driving the 9% growth.

Greg Melich
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Great. I guess as a follow-up on Pro, just do you have a credit penetration number for private label cards?

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

The private label card penetration was 28.7%, up about 20 basis points versus the same period last year.

Greg Melich
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Great. Thanks. Good luck everyone.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Thank you.

Michael P. McDermott
Chief Customer Officer, Lowe's

Sure.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Bosshard with Cleveland Research. Please go ahead.

Eric Bosshard
Analyst, Cleveland Research

Good morning. Two things curious on, one, the 35 store opens. I understand the emphasis and the opportunity with omni-channel, but the 35 number, can you just remind us what you're spending and the focus and the expected payback from that? Secondly, would love to understand what you felt you did differently in appliances, which underperformed in Q3 and was a much stronger performer in Q4.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

I'll take the first part, let Mike address the second part. As we think about the 35 store openings, that is roughly nine U.S. big box stores, 10 stores in Canada, a few in Mexico, and 14 Orchard locations. They are varying formats and varying geographies. As we think about the spend for new stores, that is roughly $400 million in 2017. As we think about return hurdles, we've got risk-adjusted return hurdles for all of our investments, including real estate. We do expect a portfolio of stores to more than exceed those hurdles going forward.

Michael P. McDermott
Chief Customer Officer, Lowe's

Eric, this is Mike McDermott on the product side and appliances. Obviously, the fourth quarter is a significantly promotional quarter. We made some adjustments in both our traditional and digital advertising approach to make sure that we were engaging customers in an exciting way. We continue to see benefit from our lowes.com replatform that we did mid-2016, and certainly our associates in store providing the right level of experience for our customers has been great. Credible vendor partnerships, great values, innovative products and just incredible performance by our supply chain team, to make sure that we were in stock in this critical season, really driving significantly positive performance in the laundry business as a result of some of those buys and the ability to move that inventory where it was needed.

Eric Bosshard
Analyst, Cleveland Research

Great. If I could just add one more. There was a reference earlier on incentive comp. I am curious in terms of what happened with store-level incentive comp in Q4 and what the expectations and strategy is in that area moving forward.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Eric, if you recall, we had fairly substantial deleverage in the fourth quarter of last year based on the strength of performance, which really impacted our annual accruals. We had significant deleverage Q4 last year, which as we planned 2016, that was expected. While we had really good performance this year, it did not compare to what we saw last year, therefore, the rate of change was less, giving rise to expense leverage in incentive comp area Q4 2016. Going forward, we've got a variety of plans that have sent the store management and store associates to serve customers every day, to ensure we help meet their needs, omni needs going forward. No real change in how we are thinking about incenting the folks that are on the front lines interfacing with our customers every day.

Eric Bosshard
Analyst, Cleveland Research

Okay, thank you.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Regina, we've got time for one more question.

Operator

Our final question will come from the line of Keith Hughes with SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Keith Hughes
Analyst, SunTrust

Our questions have already been answered. Thank you.

Bob Hull
CFO, Lowe's

Thank you.

Michael P. McDermott
Chief Customer Officer, Lowe's

Thanks, and as always, thanks for your continued interest in Lowe's. We look forward to speaking with you again when we report our first quarter 2017 results on Wednesday, May 24th. Thanks, and have a great day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.