Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Loews Company's First Quarter 2010 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded. Statements made during this call will include forward looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Management's expectations and opinions reflected in those statements are subject to risks, and the company can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Those risks are described in the company's earnings release and in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Also during this call, management will be certain non GAAP financial measures. You can find a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other information about them posted on Loews' Investor Relations website under Corporate Information and Investor Documents. Hosting today's conference will be Mr. Robert Knibloc, Chairman and CEO Mr. Larry Stone, President and COO and Mr.
Bob Hull, Executive Vice President and CFO. I will now turn the program over to Mr. Knibloc for opening Nibloc for opening remarks.
Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, and thanks for your interest in Loews. Following my remarks, Larry Stone will review our operational performance and Bob Hull will review our financial results. Sales for the quarter increased 4.7 percent and comparable store sales were positive 2.4%, our first positive comp in 15 quarters. 1st quarter sales were positively impacted by favorable weather in March April as well as government stimulus programs. However, I also feel our solid sales results suggest consumers are more willing to engage in discretionary home improvement.
Even at the improvement. Even at the depths of the economic cycle, the home remained important to consumers and they continue to spend on repair and maintenance products. But encouragingly, during the quarter, we saw signs that consumers were expanding their spending beyond repair and maintenance into more discretionary products and projects like riding mowers and gas grills. Consumers appear to be more positive about the economic outlook as many are appear to be more positive about the economic outlook as many are beginning to see a path to recovery, supported by cautious signs that housing fundamentals are stabilizing. While employment remains a concern, on a relative basis, the economic climate is much better than a year ago and consumers seem to feel better about the future.
That's what we heard in our Q1 consumer survey. Our survey, along with other national measures, suggests consumer confidence remains low. But what we identified in this quarter survey was that consumers feel more comfortable that nationally, the worst of the economic cycle is behind us. Caution remains, but a growing sense of comfort has more consumers planning and executing discretionary projects and purchases. In addition to signs consumers are reengaging in discretionary projects, sales in the quarter were also aided by favorable weather.
Despite record snowfall in February, which led to a slow start for the quarter, warm weather and a compressed selling season in March April gave consumers a reason to move outdoors and tackle traditional projects as well as repair damage caused by the harsh winter. We saw strong performance across all of our outdoor product groups. Government stimulus also aided sales during the quarter. Consumers took advantage of the government funded cash for appliances rebate program to invest in energy efficient appliances, which drove double digit positive appliance comps in the quarter. Detailed planning and great execution of our state by state marketing, merchandising and operations programs related to cash for appliances helped drive our solid results.
Also, while difficult to measure, we feel the homebuyer tax credit helped sales. During the quarter, we continued targeted outreach to new homebuyers, many of whom qualify for the tax credit, so Lowe's would be top of mind for their home improvement needs. We experienced solid sales across our footprint with 40 of the 50 U. S. States posting positive comps.
Strong performance in Canada continued with a positive 14% comp in constant currency and over 38% comps in U. S. Dollars. The solid performance by Canada added 20 basis points to the overall company comp. While our 2 stores in Monterrey, Mexico have only been open since February, we're excited about the opportunity presented by this market.
On the expansion front, we opened 11 stores in the quarter in vibrant markets in the U. S. And our first stores in Mexico. As we've slowed our expansion to minimize the pressure on our existing store base, our self cannibalization has declined. For the quarter, it was almost 65 basis points and is expected to continue to decline as the year unfolds.
While our sales performance was While our sales performance was better than expected, our gross margin rate was lower than expected, driven by a change in product mix. For the quarter, strong sales of appliances and OPE caused a higher than expected sales penetration of those categories and impacted our gross margin rate. Larry will provide additional detail on our margin trends in his comments. Although investments in our new sales and facility maintenance positions pressured expenses in the quarter, we delivered earnings per share of $0.34 which is significantly above our guidance for the quarter. We remain committed to balancing our efforts to manage expenses, while also ensuring our stores remain staffed with knowledgeable and engaged employees ready to serve customers.
While our first quarter results were aided by weather and government stimulus, consumers are also showing signs of renewed engagement in home improvement, evidenced by their willingness to spend on more discretionary products. We're optimistic we'll continue to see solid sales through the balance of the year with gradual improvement in core demand, but we still view 2010 as a year of transition for our industry, and it will likely be 2011 before we see significant growth. Within that context, we remain committed to providing great service and quality products to meet consumers' ever evolving needs, which we're confident will allow us to drive profitable market share. Thanks again for your interest. And now, I'll turn it over to Larry Stone to provide more details on the quarter and the year.
Larry?
Thanks, Robert, and good morning. Comps for the quarter were positive 2.4%, our expectations as we headed into the quarter. Comp traffic was positive 4.8% for the quarter, while comp average ticket was down 2.3%. While there were definitely some of one time drivers that possibly influenced our Q1 sales, we also saw signs consumers are increasingly willing to spend on big ticket products. That's evidenced by our positive comp of approximately 1% a positive comp of approximately 1% for tickets greater than $500 Additionally, consumers continue to make smaller transactional purchases.
Comps for tickets less than $50 were positive 3% for the quarter. Looking at our results from a regional basis, 20 one of our 23 U. S. Regions had positive comps for the quarter. 2 regions, 1 in the Northeast and another in the North Central, posted double digit positive comps.
Performance in these regions were driven by strong sales of seasonal products and major appliances. Also, the Western division, which includes some of the hardest hit housing markets, posted a positive comp in all four regions for the quarter. This is our best performance in this division since the Q4 of 2,005. The 2 regions that had negative comps are in the Gulf Coast and Southern Texas, where we're still cycling last year's hurricane related spending. As Robert mentioned, our Canadian stores had strong performance with 14% comps measured in constant currency for the Q1.
Follow through from projects stimulated by the home renovation tax credit as well as consumers attempting to complete projects ahead of an upcoming tax increase in Ontario for installed services probably drove some sales in the quarter. But we've also been successful in differentiating our sales in the Canadian marketplace. One recent example is our exclusive offering of Para Paints, a well known Canadian brand renowned for its home color system featuring more than 2,100 colors. Turning to our product category performance, 13 of our 20 categories had positive comps for the quarter and 3 categories appliances, outdoor power equipment and seasonal living posted double digit positive comps for the quarter. As the government sponsored cash for appliance program occurred across majority of the states, we saw consumers take advantage of this program to replace their appliances with new more energy efficient models.
During the quarter, we saw strong demand for refrigerators, ranges, dishwashers and laundry products. Our team executed our state by state marketing, merchandising, distribution and store operations plans, enabling us to capitalize on this opportunity. In addition, to ensure we continue to meet consumer demand, we made opportunistic inventory purchases in the quarter to make certain we had adequate appliance inventory on hand during this high demand period. We feel those purchases paid off as many retailers struggle to replenish inventory as the state by state programs rolled out. Our knowledgeable employees combined with our well executed plans, great product selection and unmatched in stock levels gave us a distinct advantage in satisfying the strong demand.
As the weather warmed up, homeowners headed outside and took home projects to enhance their outdoor space. Throughout the economic cycle, we've seen consumers choose to repair outdoor power power equipment rather than replace, which drove strong comps and repair parts. While comps and parts remain strong, we saw a noticeable improvement in riders and walk behind mowers as we posted double digit positive comps for the quarter. Additionally, we saw demand for pressure washers, gas grills and patio furniture. Combined, these trends in big ticket OPE and seasonal living products are another encouraging sign consumers are more willing to spend on discretionary products.
Installed sales posted double digit comps for the quarter. A greater willingness to undertake some previously delayed discretionary projects combined with consumer response to our easy understand and value based carpet installation offer helped deliver strong comps and installed sales. In addition, during the quarter, we announced our channel exclusive partnership with Stainmaster Carpet, the brand most requested by consumers. Stainmaster is known for its innovative stain resistant carpet options and we're excited about the opportunity to partner with them. Special order sales, which is also project driven, had above average comps for the quarter, driven in strong part by demand for special order millwork.
Finally, we had positive comps in our commercial business for the quarter. Our district commercial account specialists have improved focus on the opportunities we have to grow sales within this commercial segment. We remain committed to driving profitable share gains and we use third party data to gauge our retail market penetration.
While this consumer survey
data provides a good perspective of movements, it is best used to reflect longer term trends across the industry. According to these measures, during the Q1 of 2010, we gained unit market share in 11 categories and remained flat in 1. Total store unit market share grew 10 basis points, which was greater than any other national retailer. We continue to work closely with the provider of the market share data to determine how best to use it to gauge market share trends. As a result of ongoing discussions with them, we feel transition to a rolling 4 quarter view removes sampling anomalies and provides a better perspective of market share trends.
On a rolling 4 quarter basis, we gained 70 basis points in total store unit market share, again more than any other national home improvement retailer across that time period. Gross margin rate for the quarter was below our expectations. A change in sales mix driven by our outperformance in appliances and OPE resulted in 36 basis points of negative mix impact on margin. While changes in mix accounted for essentially the entire decline, we also experienced some rate pressures as well. In a commodity category like lumber with many competitors competing for market share, retail prices have been slow to move despite the rising cost.
This time and lag between cost increases and movement in retail prices pressured margin in the quarter. Additionally, we executed a reset in our home organizational category during the quarter and we marked down and sold through existing inventory as a result, which pressured margin rate. Turning to expenses, as we described on our Q4 conference call, we expected some pressure from the new positions related to the rollout of our sales and service initiatives. Store payroll, our biggest expense, deleveraged 40 basis points, driven primarily by the implementation of the project specialist exteriors and the facility service associate positions. Also, as the quarter unfolded and sales accelerated, we added incremental seasonal payroll to maintain customer service standards.
At the district level, the new DCAS position pressured expenses as those employees come up to full speed and begin to generate sales. In addition, advertising deleveraged 8 basis points driven by 3 primary factors. 1st, during the quarter, we saw increased promotional activity in certain categories and we chose to match competitor offers. Also, the cash for for appliance opportunity lasted longer than anticipated and to ensure we captured our share of wallet, we extended our advertising spend accordingly. And finally, some big ticket categories like kitchen and bath were planned with a low ad representation.
As the quarter progressed, we saw stronger than expected consumer demand in those categories, leading us to increase our ad exposure. We feel we have ad exposure.
We feel we have
a solid advertising plan in place for the Q2, but we will continue to review opportunities to drive sales. Inventory is up 9.8% for the quarter. While this increase is greater than we planned, the growth was driven by new stores as well as some opportunistic purchases we made that we think will allow us to drive sales and capture profitable share. As previously mentioned, we bought appliance inventories, we saw greater than expected response to the cash for appliance program, but we also made strategic inventory purchases in flooring, paint and lawn and landscape products to drive sales in these categories. It's important to note that with our strong seasonal sell through in the Q1, our inventory increase is not in seasonal or perishable categories.
Overall, we feel we have the right inventory in place to serve customer demand and we expect our inventory position to be in line with their plan by the end of the year. I would like to provide an update to new sales and service positions I described on last quarter's conference call. While we are in the early stages of implementing these positions, we're excited about the opportunity they create. Our PSC position helped drive sales in millwork and other build materials categories during the Q1, positioned us to a more effective compete effectively compete in categories that lend themselves to an home selling approach. Our DCAS position that's in 125 markets has been instrumental in helping us build and strengthen relationships with new and existing customers.
During the quarter, we saw evidence of the sales benefit this new position can provide and we evaluate adding additional markets. And finally, the FSA position will help us ensure we maintain an inviting shopping environment and have better execution of minor store repairs previously performed by 3rd party vendors. With the rollout of disposition, we have eliminated approximately 75% of our service contracts related to janitorial work and general maintenance. And as additional services contracts expire, expire, we expect to realize additional savings. These new positions will pressure payroll leverage in the near term, but we continue to be encouraged by the opportunities they create to drive sales and improve efficiencies.
We are encouraged by the widespread improvement in consumer demand across geographic regions and the positive comp performance in majority of our product categories for the quarter. While sales rated by weather and government stimulus, we're optimistic consumers are gaining confidence and greater willingness to spend on discretionary projects around their homes. Our continued investments in our new sales driving positions, great merchandising and focus on service ensure we're well positioned to drive profitable sales and efficiencies. Thank you for your interest in Loews and I will now turn the call over to Bob Hull to review our Q1 financial results. Bob?
Thanks, Larry and good morning everyone. Sales for the Q1 were $12,400,000,000 which represents a 4.7% increase from last year's Q1. In Q1, total customer transactions increased 7.1%, while average ticket decreased 2.3% $62.27 Comp sales were positive 2.4 percent for the quarter, which exceeded our guidance of negative 2% to flat. Looking at monthly trends, comps were negative 7.2% in February, positive 2.4% in March and positive 8.8% in April. For the quarter, comp transactions increased 4.8% and comp average ticket decreased 2.3%.
And looking at some specific impacts to comp sales in the quarter, cannibalization negatively impacted comp store sales by approximately 65 basis points. We experienced lumber inflation, which had approximately 30 basis points positive impact on 1st quarter comps driven by plywood. We estimate that cash for appliances program aided total company comps by 65 basis points in Q1. With regard to product categories, With regard to product categories, the categories that performed above average in the Q1 include rough electrical, nursery, seasonal living, outdoor power equipment, lawn and landscape products and appliances. Millwork and paint performed at approximately the overall corporate average.
Gross margin for the Q1 was 35.2 percent of sales and decreased 28 basis points from last year's Q1. The primary driver of the gross margin decline the quarter was the mix of items sold. Sales mix negatively impacted gross margin by 36 basis points. Approximately half of the negative mix impact was driven by appliances. We continue to see positive results related to inventory shrink, which was 11 basis points lower than last year, lower than Q1 last year.
SG and A for Q1 was 25% of sales, which leveraged 1 basis point. Here is some color on specific expense lines. Proprietary credit leverage 35 basis points in the quarter, primarily related to lower losses and decreased money cost relative to Q1, 2009. Utilities leverage 7 basis points in the quarter as a result of reduced electricity usage and the increase in comp sales. Store open cost leveraged 6 basis points to last year as a percentage of sales.
In the Q1, we opened 11 new stores. This compares to 21 new stores in Q1 last year. Almost entirely offsetting these items was deleverage in the following areas. For the quarter, store payroll deleveraged 40 basis points, driven primarily by additional hours associated with the PSC and FSA positions. During our Q4 earnings call, I noted that due to the unusually high winter storm activity, we were expecting incremental snow removal costs and expense deleverage as a result.
While we did incur higher than planned snow removal expense, cleaning and maintenance expense reductions associated with the FSA position almost entirely offset the higher snow removal costs in the quarter. Payroll taxes deleveraged by 11 basis points in the quarter as a result of higher payroll and state unemployment tax rate increases. Fleet expense deleveraged 7 basis points due to an increase in the number of deliveries as a result of strong appliance sales and a 33% increase in the average fuel cost for the quarter. Depreciation for the quarter was $397,000,000 which was 3.2% of sales and leveraged 19 basis points compared with last year's Q1 due to slower square footage growth, assets becoming fully depreciated and positive comp sales. Earnings before interest and taxes decreased 8 basis points to 7% of sales.
Interest expense at $82,000,000 for the quarter was flat to last year as a percent of sales. For the quarter, total expenses were 28.8 percent of sales and leveraged 20 basis points. Pre tax earnings for the quarter were 6.3 percent of sales. The The effective tax rate for the quarter was 37.8 percent versus 37.4 percent for Q1 last year. Earnings per share of $0.34 for the quarter exceeded our guidance of $0.27 to $0.29 and increased 6.3% versus last year's $0.32 Now to a few items on the balance sheet starting with assets.
Cash and cash equivalents balance at the end of the quarter was $2,700,000,000 Our first quarter inventory balance of $9,900,000,000 increased $886,000,000 or 9.8% versus Q1 last year. The increase is due to a 4.9% increase in comp store inventory, square footage growth of 2 point 9%, as well as a slight increase in distribution inventory. Inventory turnover calculated by taking a trailing 4 quarters cost of sales divided by average inventory for the last 5 quarters was 3 point 56, a decrease of 20 basis points from Q1, 2009. Return on assets determined using the trailing 4 quarters earnings divided by average assets for the last 5 quarters decreased 106 basis points to 5.2%. Moving on to the liability section of the balance sheet.
Accounts payable of $7,100,000,000 represents a 21% increase over Q1 last year. The growth in accounts payable is higher than our 9.8% increase in inventory, which is attributable to the timing of purchases in the quarter, as well as ongoing efforts to improve vendor payment terms. In the Q1, we issued $1,000,000,000 of senior unsecured bonds in 2 tranches,
a $500,000,000
worth of 10 year notes with a 4.5 percent interest rate, a $500,000,000 30 year tranche with a 5.8 percent interest rate. The proceeds of the notes will be used to repay the $500,000,000 June 20 10 debt maturity, general corporate purposes and to finance repurchases of our common stock. As a result, our long term debt balance at the end of the quarter was $5,500,000,000 Our debt to equity ratio was 31.9% compared to 27.5 percent for Q1 last year. At the end of the Q1, lease adjusted debt to EBITDAR was 1.75 times, which is higher than our target of 1.5 times as a result prefunding the upcoming debt maturity. Return on invested capital measured using a trailing 4 quarters earnings plus tax adjusted interest divided by the average debt and equity for the last 5 quarters decreased 150 basis points for the quarter to 8.2%.
Now looking at the statement of cash flows, cash flow from operations was $2,700,000,000 which was $391,000,000 or 17 percent higher than Q1, 2009. Cash used and property acquired was $283,000,000 a 51% decrease due to the reduction in our store expansion program. As a result, 1st quarter free cash flow of almost 2.5 $1,000,000,000 was up 38% versus last year. During the quarter, we repurchased 18,600,000 shares at an average price of $24.18 for a total repurchase amount of $450,000,000 We have 4,550,000,000 remaining share repurchase authorization.
The remaining 15,000,000
of the 465,000,000 of repurchase of common stock shown on the statement of cash flows relates to shares purchased to facilitate stock based compensation transactions. Looking ahead, I'd like to address several of the items detailed in Loews business outlook. We 2nd quarter total sales increase of 5% to 7%, which incorporates a comp sales increase of 2% to 4% and the opening of approximately 4 new stores in the quarter. Depreciation for Q2 is expected to be approximately $400,000,000 and leverage about 20 basis points to last year's Q2. As a result, earnings before interest and taxes for the Q2 are expected to increase by approximately 40 basis points to last year as a percentage of sales.
For the quarter, interest expense is expected to be approximately $85,000,000 The income tax rate is forecast to be 37.8 percent for the quarter. We expect earnings per share of $0.57 to $0.59 which represents an increase of 12% to 16% over last year's $0.51 For 2010, we expect to open 40 to 45 stores, resulting in an increase in square footage of approximately 2%. We're estimating 20 10 comp sales to be 2% to 4% and as a result total sales increase from 5% to 7%. For the fiscal year, we're anticipating EBIT to increase by approximately 60 basis points. Our EBIT outlook includes an estimated $50,000,000 or $0.02 per share impact for the pending credit card legislation regarding fair and proportional fees.
We expect the government's final ruling shortly with the law becoming effective in August of this year. For 2010, interest expense is expected to be approximately $325,000,000 which is about $45,000,000 higher than our prior outlook as a result of the April bond issuance. For the year, we expect the effective tax rate to be 37.8 percent. Some of these inputs should yield earnings per share of $1.37 to $1.47 which represents an increase of 13 percent from 2,009. For the year, we are forecasting cash flows from operations to be approximately $4,000,000,000 Our capital expenditures for 2010 are forecast to be approximately 2 point $2,000,000,000 with roughly $375,000,000 funded by operating leases, resulting in cash capital expenditures of approximately $1,800,000,000 As a result, we are forecasting free cash flow of $2,200,000,000 for the year.
Our guidance for 20.10 10 includes Q1 share repurchase activity, but does not assume any additional share repurchases. Regina, we are now ready for questions.
Our first question comes from the line of Eric Leshard with Cleveland Research.
Good morning.
Good morning,
Eric. You did a
good job of highlighting the benefits from weather and appliances, both of which don't really continue into 2Q. Can you just talk about what else you're seeing in the business that gives you the confidence in
this guidance for basically 2Q sales to improve from the rate
of 1Q? Yes, in this guidance for basically 2Q sales to improve from the rate of 1Q? Eric, this is Larry Stone.
Certainly, a lot of our
categories, lumber, building materials and so forth, got off to a slow start in the quarter. As quarter progressed, you could see momentum starting together in some of those products. Also, I mentioned our PSC, our Project Specialist Exteriors have really made an impact on our millwork sales. So, there again, those sales should continue to grow as we head into the Q2. And a lot of the interior projects, carpet, cabinets and so forth, as economy continues to get better and consumers gain more confidence, we think those will continue as well.
Our seasonal categories should continue strong in the Q2. Demand for outdoor power equipments and seasonal products, nursery products and all of our grills and patio and so forth should continue. So really, we feel very confident as we head into the Q2. And one other thing, it's not we haven't had that extreme heat yet that we normally start to experience. So categories like air conditioners and fans should also start to pick up as the weather gets hotter.
And then a follow-up, the initial guidance coming into the year, I thought was a little bit of a softer first half and a better second half. And obviously, the first half is turning out to be a bit better, but it appears with the full year guidance that you're no longer assuming the second half improves from the first half. Can you just talk about the thinking within that in regards to the full year guidance?
Sure, Eric. I think from a sales perspective, as we highlighted in Q1, we had some specific drivers that helped 1st quarter that, as you noted in your initial question won't continue. As Larry described, there's probably other factors that help drive sales in Q2 and beyond, but we're still somewhat cautious regarding the state of the consumer and the economy as a whole. So we're somewhat cautious as we think about our outlook for the balance of the year. Very good.
Thank you. Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with Barclays Capital.
Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my Larry, I think in your prepared remarks, you discussed that one of the reasons for the advertising expense to leverage was due to increased promotional activity. Do you expect that this will intensify as the home improvement market continues to rebound and will that lead to incremental pressure moving forward?
Michael, we don't think so. I think the thing that really happened in the Q1 is kind of nominally, as Robert mentioned in his comments, the Q1 got off to a very slow start as Bob referenced in his comments also about the comps. So February started off extremely slow for us. As the weather started to improve in March, we had our plans laid out, but there again a lot of promotional activity will start to be going on in a lot of our markets. So naturally we had to respond.
I hope and we don't think that will continue in the Q2. It seems like things have got more stable as we got through that initial 2 or 3 weeks of just tremendously good weather and a lot of sales and then things kind of equaled back out as we got into the April time zone. So I don't think so. I mean, we think things would be more rational as we head into the Q2 and hopefully for the balance of the year. But there again, I think it all depends on how the economy, its economy continues to improve and consumers still continue to gain confidence.
I mean, that's the way we kind of see the market playing out, but there again things could change dramatically and if so that's why I put in my comments that we stand ready to make changes if needed.
And then
real quickly as a follow-up on the appliance category, in those states that began the rebate program early, how trends have been following the expiration of the program? Are you seeing it just pull demand forward?
Certainly, in some states, it did pull some demand forward. In some of the states where we have relatively few stores, we saw some fantastic comps, I mean, numbers that are unheard of, but quite frankly, it's off a very low base. But if you look at some of our states where we have a lot of stores in there a lot of years, we're still seeing good demand for appliances. It's not like we brought everything into that quarter. And I think the thing that a big part of the appliance market that we've always done extremely well in is the replacement market.
So if somebody's refrigerator breaks unexpectedly or washer breaks or so forth, that business is still out there. I think it brought forward some sales. We're not that naive, but quite frankly, we think that business is still going to be strong for us. It's been a category that we remain strong in throughout the downturn and certainly with the new products, new innovations and so forth that we expect to be one of the industry leaders. And we still have 7 states that will launch this month, 4 in June and 1 in July.
So there's 12 more states that will launch their programs during this quarter.
Okay. Thanks a lot. Good luck.
Thank you, Mike.
Our next question comes from the line of Colin McGranahan with Bernstein.
Good morning. First question just on average ticket with the strength in appliances, OPE and then it sounded like a double digit sales growth in installed sales too. I was a little surprised that average was down I think 2.3%. Can you give us a
little bit more color
on what was driving the decrease in average ticket given the strength in some of the bigger ticket categories?
Sure, Collin. Appliances certainly was strong for us in Q1. However, other bigger ticket categories were off a little bit, specifically cabinets. We talked about improving trends in Q4. Quarter.
However, cabinets was down slightly, a slight negative comp in the Q1. So that had a big contribution to the ticket decline, as well as lumber category. Lumber category was a little bit lower mix of total sales to Q1, so that has an influence on ticket as well.
Okay. And then just on gross margin, thinking about the mix, obviously that should get a little bit better here going through as appliances lessen out. But on the rate side, the promo side and then the fact that inventory is up, should we expect gross margin to be up for the year or are you now thinking that it's
going to be a down gross
margin year? We still expect gross margin to be up for the year. Certainly, the mix impact related to appliance was huge in Q1. We do expect that that's going to lessen as the year progresses. So we do expect margin to be up slightly for the year.
And the driver of that will just be better rate?
The combination of better rate, the combination of the things we've talked about in the past, which is global sourcing, markdown optimization. We've also talked about
in the past some expansion of patch areas that should help us with being competitive from a retail price perspective. Collin, this is Robert. Also as Larry mentioned in his comments, we're in real good shape on our seasonal sell through, the way the season has started out, the way those inventory levels are. So that really takes a lot of pressure off markdowns on those seasonal categories as we move through the season and towards closing those out as we get through the Q2 and even the 3rd. So, we feel good about where we're at.
We feel good about where those inventory dollars are invested. As I think Larry said in his comments, having gone through what the nation has gone through in the past 3 years, a lot of capacity was taking out from a production standpoint. So, where we saw opportunities, particularly in the appliance and some other areas, we did some advanced buys because we thought we want to make sure we had the inventory to be able to garner our share of sales opportunity and stuff like these stimulus programs that are out there from the government. It's worked well so far and we're as Larry as Larry
said, we don't have as
many of those in the Q2, but certainly some more states kicking off and then we use the extra 60 days to close on those homes that went under contract by the end of April. And a lot of times when someone buys a home, that's obviously one of the things they have to have is appliances with that. So we think we're in good shape. I think we've got the inventory in the right place and we think we've minimized the markdowns. So all of that helps obviously with the gross margin trend heading into the Q2 and also the balance of the year.
Okay, fair enough. Thank you.
Thanks, Kyle.
Our next question comes from the line of David Schick with Stifel Nicolaus.
Hi, good morning. You talked about opportunistic buys affecting the inventory a little bit in categories where you felt good. Can you talk about the cycle times on what you bought? Would you expect that to smooth out over the next quarter or 2?
Dave, it's Larry Song. Yes, we should. I mean appliances, we one of the things that's really helped us in appliance sales over the all the time we carried appliances and having appliances in stock as the cash for appliances started to unfold, quite frankly demand was outstripping our in stock position. So, we worked with our vendors and didn't make these opportunistic buys of products that drivers want to not go bad. These are products that we'll be selling as year progresses, but we felt like to have the product in stock for the customers was worth inventory investment.
Also in categories like lawn and landscape and paint, once again, we felt like based on the trends we were seeing in the business, these were good solid investments for us. So the products that we purchased during the Q1 are products that the business is pretty stable throughout the whole year. So it's not a lot of seasonal products like we went out buying a ton of grills and patio. I can understand concern, but quite frankly the products we bought were products that we know we can sell through without a lot of markdown or hopefully no markdown.
So the number should look more normal relative to comp maybe next quarter. Is that right?
It should.
Okay. And then the follow-up really would be the payables expansion. Bob, if you could talk about that?
Sure. As I mentioned in my comments, a lot of it is really just due to timing of purchase in the quarter. Dave, the increase in purchases, a lot of that came in April. So as we progress throughout the year, the AP leverage, AP as a divided inventory will be up slightly for the year, but not to the extent it was up in Q1. And Dave, this
is Robert. Just to follow-up, our merchants are always obviously working on terms with vendors, but there's no no significant change in terms across the board or anything like that, that we've executed with our vendors. So as Bob said, it's more driven just by the timing of purchases where they occurred late in the quarter as demand ramps for things like appliances.
And just one follow-up, David. I think you're going to see inventory normalize as the year progresses, still might be a little bit higher than one might expect relative to sales in Q2, but we expect to be roughly on plan by year end or up approximately 3 %. Thanks
a lot. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan
Binder with Jefferies. Hi, good morning. Dan Binder. I
was just
curious if you could comment on new store productivity versus your expectations in the quarter? And then also you mentioned hurricane activity. Just curious if you could outline what the impact was this quarter and what you expect it to look like next quarter? And then finally, aside from lumber you're seeing or it appears that there is inflation in other categories including carpet, flooring and other building products. I'm just curious what your outlook is on inflation and how that may impact your comps for this year?
Bob, I'll take the hurricane question, Dan. As you know, we did see elevated sales in Q1 last year as it relates to the 2,008 storm activity that negatively impacted 1st quarter comps by about 90 basis points. We think that's roughly cut in half in Q2, down about a 45 basis point negative impact. And then your first question, you referenced productivity. Could you expand on your question a little bit, if you don't mind?
Just how new stores opened up over the last 12 months, how they've performed versus your expectations?
New store productivity in the Q1 was about 72%. So I would say that's fair. Ideally, we'd like that to closer
to 80%, but anything above 70% is decent performance. And Dan, on your issue with inflation, yes, I mean, obviously, lumber, some other commodities, we've seen some inflation in, some in rough electrical when you think about the copper wiring, those categories. I think compared to other cycles, as Larry mentioned in his comments, our retails have moved up a little slower than what they have in the past, but are starting to move up compared to what we've seen on the cost side. So that a little bit of an impact as Larry mentioned on margin rate during the quarter. We are seeing those retails starting to move up.
It's only the fact that it's just been slightly slower than what we saw in prior cycles as we've seen commodity prices move up. But we expect to see those continue to move up. There's as you get the economy starting to pick back up, there's probably going to be pressure where our supply has been taken out of the market. So you probably don't see some inflation in those categories. Certainly in the Q2, we expected based on where lumber prices and where stuff like copper wire prices are at are impacting the rough electrical category.
Yes, and also plywood NANDs had quite a run up in plywood products. So there again, if you look at as we start in the Q2 and the Q3, there's a lot of comments out there about weather and the storms and so forth. So there again, we're keeping our eye on that as well. So we just feel like the things hopefully will start to level off, especially in the lumber and plywood prices as we head into the end of the second quarter and get back into the fall of the year.
Okay. And just as a follow-up to that, the comments on inflation, do you expect that there is a sort of a temporary gross margin pressure that continues into Q2, Q3 or is it starting to flow through a little bit more quickly now?
I think Robert's comments, we're starting to see people finally starting to move up on some of these products. And like I said, a lot of pressure in lumber, plywood and really copper cable are 3 of the ones that gave us some margin pressures in the Q1. So, we're starting to see retailers move more proactively now versus for the middle part of the quarter, people are kind of stuck on the price they bought it out versus replacement costs and replacement costs jumped quite a bit as the quarter progressed. So we feel like that there's opportunity to move prices up to recapture some of those costs that are embedded into the product now with the replacement cost being much higher than they were at the start of the quarter.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you, Dan.
Our next question comes from the line of Laura Champagne with Cowen and Company.
Robert, you mentioned that 2011 might be the year where we really start to see improved growth and I understand the caution this year, but why move it out of full year? And what should be the drivers you think to take 2011 growth even faster than 2010?
I think if you look at some of the economic estimates that are out there, Laura, a lot of them as we've gone through the recovery process have started to push out when the timeline is for recovery. So, for move through the marketplace. We continue to see pressure there. There's obviously still concern out there from an employment standpoint, even though I think the latest numbers were 290,000 jobs were added, unemployment rate ticked up recently and is estimated to be at, I think, about 9.6% consensus for the year in 2010. So as we think through that process, just looking at from an overall estimates out there is when what the overall market growth is going to be, what the consensus is for our industry this year versus next year, things have pushed out just a little bit.
We've always said that 2011 would be the 1st year of recovery. We haven't really changed our outlook so much for 2010. We just had a better Q1 than we anticipated because of some of the incremental factors that impacted that quarter being the cash flow appliances response for that being greater than we anticipated. We didn't know at the beginning of the quarter since the federal government rolled that out to the states and let them put in place the programs on an individual state by state basis. We didn't know exactly how those programs were going to be structured.
And a lot of times, it depends on how those programs are structured. Is it an instant rebate? Is it a mail in? How does that work that drives the consumers' response to the category. So things like that had an incremental impact above what we didn't anticipated in the Q1 because we didn't have the information as to exactly how those programs are going to be rolled out.
And so, the impact that would have on consumers ability to take those to take the states up on those offers. So, Greg, Richard's and Greg, do you have anything else on the economic outlook to No,
I think, Robert, you're looking at consumer mindset is slowly starting to change favorable, but I think that as Robert described, Laura, that we're still going to have to watch and see how home values do bottom out, which has been pushed out. So, most of economists that you talk to today would say that it's going to be a longer recovery with fewer curves in it and that we're supposed to begin to see meaningful change in consumer mindset towards the end of this year and into the first half of twenty eleven.
Got it. Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Robert Baird.
Hey, guys. First question, could you give us some more color on the improved trends you're seeing in the Western regions, specifically how is California performing and how does that compare to the prior quarters?
Peter, it's Larry Stoner. As I stated in my comments, we had positive comps in the Western division for the first time since 2,005. Certainly, all the parts of the West are doing much better than we were doing previously and been out there a couple of times in the past quarter and you can just see it with traffic in the stores and just anecdotally talking to customers and talking to our store teams and so forth. Things seem to be getting better. Now, we know we're not out of the woods yet in those states, but improvement trends are much better.
The bounce in the step, so to speak, of the customers and the employees are very encouraging. And there again, we've got all the programs in place out there in terms of our project specialist interiors, their de cast positions on their district commercial account specialists. So, we feel real good about the West Coast and how it's performing, but that's one great quarter. So, we hope this trend will continue and certainly as we grow throughout the year and things continue to improve, they'll just continue to get better on the West Coast.
Okay, thanks. And then Bob, the $50,000,000 credit expense that you alluded to in your prepared remarks, when do you expect that to hit the income statement? Is that going to be in 2Q or 3Q?
Pete, that starts in Q3. I think the final regulations would become effective August 22. So we see that impact largely spread throughout 3rd Q4.
So, dollars 50,000,000 over the second half of the year is the way to think about it?
That's right. Okay, great. Thanks.
Thank you.
Our next Our
next question comes from
the line of Matthew Fassler with Goldman Sachs.
I've got one question and one follow-up. First of all, I should follow-up.
Matt, we're having a little trouble hearing you.
Sorry, can
you hear me now?
Yes, we can hear you now.
Great, sorry about that. My first question would be a follow-up to Dan's question on new space productivity. Totally hear you on the productivity rate being very solid in absolute terms. I believe that for the quarter for the year, you guided to the neighborhood of 100 percent for new space productivity based on the kinds of openings that you saw for this year. So some color on how you're tracking to that expectation would be helpful.
And then my second question just relates to the appliance stimulus program. If you think about all of the various states and add up the potential, how much what proportion of the dollars do you think has been extended or claimed at this point? And how much you think would be left for subsequent quarters? Thanks.
Thanks, Matt. It's Bob. I'll take the first part. So new store productivity is assumed to be roughly 100% for the year. There's some nuances of the calculation.
As we've talked about in the past, we've got a very healthy 2010 new opening schedule, average sales per store roughly $33,000,000 versus the $28,000,000 average we saw per store in 2 1009. The other impact is when the stores open within each quarter, which has some nuance to the calculation itself. So we do expect good new store productivity in 2010. I think it's just some of the nuances of the calculation that gets us to a new store productivity mathematically calculated to be about 100%.
Got it.
Matt, it's Robert. On the estimates to how much is already behind us, that one's a little bit harder to estimate. Most of the larger states have come through with their programs. As Larry said, there's about 11 or 12 more that are kicking off. One of them out there that had a fairly big program was California, but the way they
executed it initially was it only applied
to very high end it initially was it only applied to very high end appliances, very high average ticket. So they didn't get a very big response. So one of the big unknowns is do they come back with their remaining funds and execute it at a level that is more mainstream and drives more of a take rate for the residents of the state there. So roughly, I'd say we're probably maybe 75% or so of the way through the programs out there, depending on what California does that could tick up a little bit more opportunity later in the year if they choose to do something there.
So, are you intimating that the Q1 probably saw the bulk of the benefit that you're going
to see here? Or do
you think that it can be material for 2Q as well?
I think it will still have an impact on 2Q, but we think the impact on the Q1 is bigger than what the impact will be on the 2nd quarter.
Got it, guys. Thank you so much.
Our next question comes from the line of David Strasser with Janney Montgomery.
Thank you. So you talked about lumber prices kind of not inflation, not being able to keep up with inflation or inflation being cutting into margin a little bit because prices haven't been able to get up, go up as much? And then in the past 2 or 3 years, part of the story here has been that you've seen a lot of competition, particularly some of the lumber yards go out of business. You alluded to it a little bit. I'm trying to reconcile a little bit some of the comments.
Are you seeing more competition come back in, which is kind of keeping some of that lumber pricing in check at the retail level?
David, it's Barry Stone. Start on that one. Certainly, it's not more competition. It's just the competitors that we still have left that seem to be trading dollars on product versus trying to get in line with replacement cost. That's been an age old problem selling lumber.
A lot of folks buy it at one price and sell it at one price and don't think about replacement cost. But the major retailers that we compete with on lumber products just seems like they've been holding the prices on some of the products that this time of the year there are certain products that go up in terms of retail and in this Q1 they were just held down and quite frankly we've got a massive competition in these areas. But as far as new competitors, we're not seeing a lot of new competitors in the lumber and building drills business. It's more of the same folks we compete with day in, day
out. Just as a follow-up
to that question, I mean, are you as you sort of think about the back half twenty ten, twenty eleven, I remember over the course of last few years talked about barriers to entry being relatively low for some lumber yards to come back. How do you think about competition coming back if you're right on sort of the economy continuing to improve?
Well, I think, Dave, when you start talking about in the lumber and building materials area and those competitors starting to come back, there was a lot of consolidation that took place in the industry as they were trying to rationalize and based on the pullback in sales, rationalize their overhead, those type of things, you wouldn't expect to see them really coming back. You really have new home construction heating up in a big way. And so, when you think about the still the overhang we have in existing home sales, the pressures will be coming from the foreclosures that need to move through the pipeline like we talked about earlier. I think we're well into recovery in new home construction before you would really start seeing an expansion in the kind of the traditional lumber and building material yards.
Thanks a lot. I appreciate it.
Thanks, Dave. Regina, I think we've got time for one more question.
Our last question will come from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.
Thanks and good morning. Can you talk about big ticket category trends outside of cabinets in non seasonal categories? Curious, I think that'll be a really interesting read on how much we could maybe expect to continue into the back half of the year?
Chris, it's Harry Stellan. A lot of the big ticket items and certainly if you look at our seasonal products, outdoor power equipment had a real strong quarter as I mentioned double digit comps and certainly that is a big ticket item. Our patio and grills which are also considered big ticket items had a real strong Q1 as well. So you would expect those to carry over into the Q2 as these products are really sold during the 1st and second quarter or 2 best quarters for those particular products. So, we think that will continue.
Kitchen cabinets, as Bob mentioned, were down slightly for the quarter, but there again as consumers gain more confidence, we expect kitchen cabinet sales to get better over time. Flooring was strong in the Q1 and there again a large ticket purchase and millwork was extremely strong in the quarter with their average ticket in that being pretty high. So, we think there's a lot of different big ticket categories that are doing quite well for us and should continue as we head into the Q2 and hopefully the balance of the year.
So, then as you reflect back, I did almost a 9 comp in April.
So, it seems like there's some you have
a lot of reasons to be optimistic as like there's some you have a lot of reasons to be optimistic as to what the Q2 holds, particularly with really easy weather compares in June July. So what's the foundation of your comp outlook here for 2Q?
Chris, this is Robert. Obviously, as we said, one of the big drivers in the Q1 was the cash for appliances program. We think that will continue into Q2, but not as heavily as in will continue into Q2, but not as heavily as in Q1. Also Q1 had the impact of a lot of repair being done coming out of a harsh winter with the damage that was done to people's homes and landscaping and those type of things. So a lot of that activity would have took place, as Larry spoke of, as soon as the weather broke in the quarter.
Some of that obviously will carry over into the 2nd quarter, probably a little bit more of an impact favorable impact on that in the Q1. Certainly, we're looking for just a great even if you take if you think about taking the impact of some of that out, you're still looking for a nice improvement in comps going into the second quarter and just part of a gradual improvement that we've talked about. So, we're still very optimistic. We're only in the beginning of the quarter. We're pleased with the way the quarter has started.
But as we said, there's still this is kind of a year of transition. We're transitioning from a year from prior 3 years, we had negative comps into a year where looking for positive comps, but there's still not significant growth out there in the industry. It's going to take place until we get employment really moving back in the right direction. We get home prices to bottom, which is probably more of a 2011 phenomenon, even though it gradually gets better. So there's still challenges out there in the economy.
So we try and look at it as we're being cautiously optimistic. We're very pleased with the signs we saw and the results we got in the Q1. We're sitting back and knowing that some of those were certainly aided by the stimulus program and the response to the harsh winter. We think that as the consumers gradually are feeling better and we're seeing them start to take on more discretionary type projects that carries over into the Q2. But we're cautiously optimistic, but at this point in the quarter, don't want to get ahead of ourselves.
Fair enough. Thanks very much.
All right.
Thanks. And as always, thanks for your continued interest in Loews. We forward to speaking with you again when we report our Q2 results on August 16. Have a great day.
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for participating.