Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

May 27, 2020

Operator

Greetings, welcome to the Dorian LPG fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Additionally, a live audio webcast of today's conference call is available on Dorian LPG's website, which is www.dorianlpg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, Mr. Young. Please go ahead.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Thank you, Christine. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us for our fourth quarter 2020 results conference call. With me today are John Hadjipateras, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Dorian LPG Ltd., and John Lycouris, Chief Executive Officer of Dorian LPG (USA) LLC. As a reminder, this conference call webcast and a replay of this call will be available through June 30, 2020. Many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These statements may often be identified with words such as expect, anticipate, believe, or similar indications of future expectations. Although we believe that such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors, as well as general economic conditions.

Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today. Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the period ended March 31, 2020. They were filed this morning as part of our earnings release on Form 8-K. In addition, please refer to our previous filings on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, where you'll find risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. With that, I'll turn over the call to John Hadjipateras.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Good morning from Stamford, Connecticut, and thank you for joining us. I will say a few words before Ted, who will review the financials with you, and John will then talk about the fleet and the market. Today, we also have with us on the line from Copenhagen, Tim Hansen, our Chief Commercial Officer, who will answer questions from you about the current freight market. In my prepared remarks for our last call on February 4th, I said, "Our outlook for the coming calendar year remains optimistic." The COVID-19 is, of course, a potential headwind. That was 16 weeks ago. In the intervening period, my priority has been the safety of the 500 seafarers currently serving on board our ships, as well as our shore-based staff and stakeholders.

I can report that our fleet has continued to operate thanks to the dedication of our seafarers and colleagues onshore, and that we are all safe, though mindful of the new peril that surrounds us. The most talked about disruption for us has been the difficulty to make crew changes. For a while, we could hardly make any. This inconvenienced both those who exceeded their contractual time on board and those ashore waiting to replace them, anxious to get back to work. We are starting to see opportunities to carry out crew changes now. What was a simple task in the past has become a logistical challenge. Transporting a COVID-free seafarer through airports and launches to the ship, try to minimize exposure, and striving to ensure that the ship remains disease-free is no simple task, as you can imagine. It is encouraging, though, to start to return to normality.

One of our second engineers will shortly be going home to meet his new baby, born at the end of April. I hope that you and all your families and friends are also safe and healthy. Our financial year 2020, concluded March 31st, was our best since 2016. Continued growth of seaborne trade of LPG, a somewhat restrained order book, and renewed exports from the USA to China resulted in freight levels I would call good. These developments were supported by a continued expansion of U.S. shale production and of PDH demand in China and South Korea, as well as continued inroads of LPG for residential use in India and other Asian countries. The freight market was quite resilient, and the TCEs were also underpinned by a lower bunker cost.

In the quarter ended March 31st, we achieved total utilization of 91.7% and a daily TCE revenue over operating days, as defined in our filings, of $51,888 a day, yielding utilization-adjusted TCE or TCE per available day of about $47,594 a day. April continued robust, and we estimate that we have 75% cover of the current quarter at near $50,000 per day. However, the current market, as expressed by the Baltic LPG Index, is now closer to $20,000 per day. We have read many forecasts ranging from a little to very pessimistic. They are predominantly based on assumptions about a decline in U.S. shale production available for export. I do not pretend to know which forecast to believe, much less to make them. Will economic activity bounce or crawl back? Will there be permanent demand destruction? What I do know is that the order book is at about 12%.

Propane as a fuel for several applications is among the most attractive options, avoiding greenhouse gas emissions. It produces fewer than gasoline, diesel, and heavy fuel oil. Whereas natural gas, methane, produces fewer greenhouse gas per BTU than propane. If it released in air directly or from methane slip, it produces a global warming effect 25 times that of carbon dioxide. LPG, as has been shown in India, can improve the quality of life for a very large part of the world's population. Dorian has a young eco-fleet. Dorian has a strong balance sheet with low leverage and good liquidity and no significant CapEx commitments.

As we previously reported, we completed two strategically significant transactions during April 2020. A Japanese sale-leaseback, our seventh, and a refinancing of the commercial tranche of our main banking facility. These transactions increased our available liquidity, reduced our financing costs, extended the maturity of our debt, and reduced our principal amortization. We are optimistic on the fundamentals of the LPG trade and confident that Dorian LPG is well-positioned to continue to provide safe, reliable, clean, and trouble-free transportation for our customers and create value for our shareholders. Over to Ted to discuss our financial results.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Thanks. My comments today will focus on our recent financings and our unaudited fourth quarter results. For the discussion of our fourth quarter results, you may also find it useful to refer to the investor highlights slide posted this morning on our website. John just touched on the two strategically significant financing transactions we completed during April 2020. On April 23rd, we completed the sale-leaseback financing of the Cresques. After prepaying the debt on the ship, we netted $23.9 million in additional liquidity. With a floating rate of 250 basis points over LIBOR and an age-adjusted amortization profile of over 20 years, this financing represents attractive terms and met our goals of lowering our interest cost and extending the debt maturity in line with our strong balance sheet.

On April 29th, we completed the refinancing of the commercial tranche of our 2015 debt facility. This transaction addressed a number of objectives. First, we turned out the next major refinancing to March 2025. Secondly, we added a $25 million revolving credit facility, which gives us access to additional liquidity should we need it. Thirdly, we achieved an immediate reduction in interest margin on our commercial tranche from 275 basis points over LIBOR to 250 basis points. We can also reduce the margin by an additional 10 basis points if we reduce the loan-to-value ratio on the vessels in this facility below 40%.

Finally, we are extremely pleased to have added a sustainability feature by which we have the opportunity to reduce our interest margin further by achieving agreed levels of improvement in our average efficiency ratio, which is part of the Poseidon Principles promulgated by the leading shipping banks, measures annual carbon emissions per deadweight ton, and targets consistent year-over-year decreases in this ratio in line with IMO guidelines. Finally, the new facility reduces the mandatory amortization on the commercial tranche from approximately $12.3 million per year to $600,000. With these two financings now completed, we have reduced the principal portion of our cash cost per day by approximately $1,330. Going forward, we will amortize about $9 million per quarter on the 2015 amended and restated facility and $4.3 million on all the Japanese financing arrangements. Thus, in total, we will pay down $13.3 million per quarter or $53.3 million per year, which is down from nearly $64 million a year.

Again, turning to our fourth quarter results. We had a total utilization of 91.7% for the quarter and TCE per operating day of $51,888 a day, yielding a utilization-adjusted rate of $47,594. Our spot TCE, which reflects our portion of the net profits of the Helios pool for the quarter, was $50,311 per day. Finally, to give you some additional insight into our overall spot chartering performance, the Helios pool as a unit encompassing about 35 ships, recorded a spot TCE, including contracts of affreightment of approximately $51,500 per available day for the quarter. Daily OpEx for the quarter ended March 31, 2020, was $8,556 per day, excluding amounts expensed for dry dockings. It was $9,407 including those costs.

OpEx per day, excluding the dry docking-related costs, modestly increased compared to last quarter's $8,413 a day. Since the March quarter, though, had fewer calendar days than the December quarter, total OpEx was roughly flat on an aggregate basis, again reflecting our team's continued vigilance on operating costs. Total G&A for the quarter was $5.7 million, and cash G&A, i.e., G&A excluding non-cash compensation expense, was about $5.3 million. This level is generally consistent with our expectations for the first calendar quarter of the year. Our reported adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $67.2 million, which was a significant increase from the $14.1 million, excluding costs related to the unsolicited BW LPG proposal recorded during the same quarter last fiscal year. The strong rate environment and lower G&A accounted for most of the improvement.

Compared to the prior quarter, EBITDA increased $7.3 million in spite of modestly higher costs from dry docking. Turning to our financing costs, we look at cash interest expense on our debt as the sum of the line items interest expense, excluding deferred financing fees and other loan expenses, and realized gain loss on interest rate swap derivatives. On that basis, total cash interest expense for the quarter was $7.1 million, which was down about $300,000 from the prior quarter, largely due to continued debt pay down and somewhat lower LIBOR rates. We continue to benefit from our hedging policy and the favorable pricing of our Japanese financings, leaving us with a current interest cost fixed hedge and a small floating piece of 4.15%.

For the coming quarter, with our new financings in place, we anticipate cash interest expense in roughly the same magnitude, approximately $7 million, as the lower LIBOR margin will be offset by slightly higher debt balances, given our lower amortization. For the quarter, we had cash outlays for capital costs associated with dry dockings of roughly $9.6 million, or $4,398 per fleet day. Fleet day is, again, calendar days plus time charter-in days, as those terms are used in our filings. Combined with amounts expensed during the quarter, our total dry docking cash outlay was $11.3 million. We also managed to repurchase $32.2 million in stock since the last time we reported in February. That represents about 3 million shares.

In total, we have now repurchased $49.3 million worth of stock, comprising 4.4 million shares, or roughly 8% of the shares outstanding prior to the announcement of the buyback in August. Turning briefly to our full-year results, we reported total adjusted EBITDA of $232.8 million, the highest in our history, and adjusted net income of $130 million. To put those levels in historical context, our TCE per available day for fiscal year 2020 was $40,824, and our daily TCE in 2016, heretofore our best year, was $51,266. The increase in profits off a lower TCE reflects the improvements in our cost structure in the intervening years, as well as an increase in available days.

For fiscal year 2020, we generated free cash flow, which we define as cash flow from operations less principal repayments, before dry docking outlays of $110.3 million and $85.2 million after all dry docking outlays, both expensed and capitalized. This equates to between $1.68 and $2.17 per share based on the shares currently outstanding. Our cash flow and liquidity remain strong. Since quarter end through to May 26, 2020, our restricted and unrestricted cash and short-term marketable securities balance is up to over $148 million. In order to assist you in your modeling, please note that our quarter-ending debt balance, excluding deferred financing fees, of $646.1 million does not reflect the two transactions we completed in April. Those two transactions increased our total debt by $26.8 million, although our net debt was unchanged because we retained the cash proceeds of the debt increase for general corporate purposes.

We expect, therefore, our debt balance at June 30, 2020 to be approximately $660 million, again, excluding deferred financing fees. Although we currently hold a 76%+ economic interest in Helios, we do not consolidate its balance sheet accounts, which has the effect of understating our cash and working capital. We believe it is useful to provide some additional insight in order to give a more complete picture. As of Tuesday, May 26, 2020, the pool had roughly $13 million of cash on hand, reflecting the fact that the pool has just paid the distribution at the end of last week. We feel that our liquidity and capital structure have positioned us well for whatever rate environment we face in the coming months. We believe that allows our company to make capital allocation decisions from a position of strength.

We still have over $50 million remaining under our share buyback authorization, and we also remain interested in accretive growth opportunities that meet our risk-reward criteria. With that, I'll pass it over to John Lycouris.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

Thank you, Ted. Global LPG volumes during the first quarter of 2020 totaled 26.9 million metric tons, a 3.6% year-over-year increase. While U.S. seaborne export volumes for the first quarter reached a record high of 11 million metric tons, which is over a 30% increase from the same period last year. VLGC lifting from the U.S. reached over 50, both in March and April, and the Middle East Gulf lifting reached 70 in April. That's the highest level since June 2019 for the Middle East. Even though May has not concluded yet, we expect about 66 VLGC liftings from the U.S., slightly higher than May last year, while the Middle East liftings were lower at 54, most likely on account of crude oil production cutbacks. Year-to-date seaborne exports of LPG from the U.S. were 5.3% higher than last year, while the Middle East has seen a 16.3% reduction year on year.

On the supply side, U.S. NGL exports have continued strong in 2020, with capacity and infrastructure additions remaining on schedule during this year by all major export terminals. Several projects related to dock expansions, additional fractionation capacity, pipeline commitments, are all expected to complete during 2020 and early 2021, perhaps at a slower pace. The COVID-19 lockdowns and the oil price collapse over the last few months have led to poor market fundamentals in the U.S. and caused early production cut shut-ins, refinery cutbacks, deferred drilling, and reduced processing volumes, which supported the Mont Belvieu NGL pricing and also absorbed NGL inventory volumes, which satisfied record export demand to countries which were preparing for lockdowns and for their inventory builds.

Although Chinese LPG imports declined last quarter, mainly due to the COVID-19 lockdowns in that country, there was substantial demand growth from India, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia during the same period. India imports grew 7.2% to 3.9 million metric tons, while Japanese imports grew 13.2% to 3.1 million metric tons, and Korea imports grew 36% to 2.2 million metric tons. Northwest Europe and Mediterranean demand for U.S. LPG is expected to recover now that the markets in Europe gradually return from lockdowns. With crude oil prices recovering to above $30 levels, we find the propane-to-naphtha spread starting to turn in favor of LPG cracking economics. The VLGC fleet order book stands at roughly 12% or about 35 vessels according to Clarksons. Only four ships have been ordered this year, compared to seven at this time last year.

The crude oil price collapse brought in lower bunker prices to the shipping markets. The absolute bunker fuel price levels and spreads we saw earlier this year have shrunk, but in relative terms, they have remained the same. High sulfur marine fuel oil, HSFO, with 3.5% sulfur content, still trades at about 25%-30% discount to the new IMO 2020 0.5% sulfur content compliant fuel, also called VLSFO. All our scrubber-equipped vessels will produce consistently higher TCEs as they continue to benefit from the relative price discount spread of heavy marine fuel oil to those burning compliant fuel oils.

Dorian remains committed to improving the environment. I would note that scrubbers not only reduce sulfur oxides for vessel emissions, but also they deliver significant reductions in black carbon and in particulate matter emissions, particularly when compared with emissions produced by very low sulfur fuel oils, which are normally blended and unstable, and now the compliant marine fuels of IMO 2020. We also continue to monitor closely and evaluate the potential for LPG as fuel. The current prices might marginally appear to make economics more attractive. However, it is difficult to make a long-term decision given the volatility in the underlying hydro carbon prices, and more significantly, the capital investment required. Dorian LPG has currently in service nine scrubber-fitted vessels, seven of which were fitted with hybrid scrubbers during the last eight months, also completing their first special survey and their dry dockings.

Two of those vessels also installed new ballast water treatment systems. We have now commenced the retrofit work on our 10th hybrid scrubber vessel, which is scheduled to complete next month, including completion of the first special survey and dry docking. Subject to market conditions in the second half of 2020, we are considering retrofitting scrubbers to those vessels which were originally committed when they are programmed to undergo their upcoming dry docking and special surveys. Thank you. Now I will pass it over to John.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Thank you. We are ready to take questions from anybody who wishes to question us.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Omar Nokta with Clarksons Platou. Please proceed with your question.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Hi. Thank you. Hi, everyone. Obviously, I would say impressive performance on the stock market and very good results overall, really despite a lot of disruptions, John, that you mentioned that we're seeing here these past few months. I have a couple market-related questions, but also just wanted to ask about the refinancing here recently. You guys have unlocked a good amount of cash with the sale-leaseback, and you've deferred the maturities with the 2015 refi. Ted, you mentioned the annual repayments are now $53 million. Excuse me. From the 2019 Form 10-K, you had $64 million due in fiscal 2021 and $203 million in fiscal 2022. Are both years now basically the $53 million?

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

That's correct, Omar. Yeah. The annual amort is now down to about $53.3 million from $63.9 million, $64 million. Most importantly, as part of the 2015 financing, we were able to extend out that maturity on the commercial tranche of our big facility to 2025. Yeah, you're absolutely right.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Yeah. Right. Okay. That includes- the $53 million, that includes the leaseback as well?

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

It does.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Okay. Thank you. Also just wanted to ask about, clearly the market backdrop that we're in. Clearly, you guys had a very strong performance in the first quarter. John, you mentioned booking 75% of 2Q, I believe, at $50,000. As we think about how things are, and clearly the market's dropped off into the low $20s per day. The OPEC+ cuts are, we think about it in the crude market as, call it, 10 million barrels a day out of, say, global trade of 40 million barrels of crude. Can you give us maybe an order of magnitude of how this is affecting the LPG trade? John, I recall you mentioned in your remarks about 42 liftings per month or 54. Do you mind just kind of going over that again and giving some perspective?

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Can you just repeat the last bit of your question?

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Yeah, just basically trying to understand when we think about the lost volumes that are coming as a result of, say, the OPEC cuts by themselves.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Okay.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

What does that do in terms of the trade?

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

All right, Omar. Why don't we let Tim take that? Because he can give you a more current view of what's going on and how it affects, more specifically, how it's been affecting the market in the last few weeks. Tim?

Tim Hansen
Chief Commercial Officer, Dorian LPG

Yeah. I would say, of course, we're seeing these cuts also eating into the LPG volumes that is expected out of the U.S. As John mentioned earlier, it's a little bit early to say exactly how much, because LPG both origin from the crude drilling and the LNG drilling, and also the NGLs at the moment looks to be more profitable. We're trying to figure out if that is directly related to reductions that we will see out of the U.S. to the reduction in barrels of oil drilled. Definitely we see some changes, and we are already seeing that even though we have not seen cancellation yet. As I said, the NGLs actually seems to be of high value comparatory to the oil.

You can say that there's probably almost reverse from oil, that there will be a shortage in the LPG markets due to high demand. We expect that the reduction of the production will be somewhat offset also by, at the moment, you have high inventories that will be eaten through the year until the production starts recovering. Exactly how much, you're mentioning 10 million, 10 million barrels of crude per day. Exactly what that is based on fuel price or oil prices and so on is quite uncertain projections are at the moment, I would say.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Yeah. Okay. That's fair.

Tim Hansen
Chief Commercial Officer, Dorian LPG

What you think the oil price would be? Yeah.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Yeah. No, that makes sense. I guess just maybe thinking about the May liftings. I believe John Lycouris had mentioned 52 or 54 liftings for May. How does that compare to, say, the prior May? John, if you don't mind, just to give a perspective.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

It was 52. It was 52 liftings the prior May. Sorry, I have a chart somewhere. I will get it to you. It was a little bit lower. We thought it was on the back of production cuts. Perhaps towards, as we get into June, we will see whether this reduction in liftings will continue in the Middle East. We're just talking here. Tim talked about the U.S. Gulf, and I think you are talking about the Middle East. True enough, Middle East has seen lower liftings this May. I'll give you the number for last year this May. If you carry on, I will come back.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Okay.

Tim Hansen
Chief Commercial Officer, Dorian LPG

I think you can say the U.S. from oil drills from the U.S. gives more LPG than when you have production cuts in the Middle East. The ratio of LPG per barrels drilled is different from U.S. and the Middle East.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Got it. Okay. Thank you. Sorry, just maybe one more just on this, because there's a lot of moving parts and a lot of, you mentioned there aren't really cargo cancellations, but obviously limited arbs and things happening very quickly and very fluidly. We've seen in the, say, the product tanker space, in the MRs and in the Handys, a lot of logistical issues with access to anchorage and waiting times. Is this something that's happening in the VLGC trade as well?

Tim Hansen
Chief Commercial Officer, Dorian LPG

We saw a little bit on India, when they closed down that they bought more cargos to check in because they expected the demand to be high when people was at home. They bought extra cargos, which resulted in more waiting time in India. Eventually they deferred some of the cargos back east where there's more storage and where we haven't seen those kinds of delays. Yeah, you can see some surges for certain destinations where there would be a block up due to both lower off-take, especially like India, where it's taken off on trucks and going through bottle plants and whatever, that is all not working efficiently in these times. You could see congestions there, or we are already seeing that.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Got it. Okay. Well, really appreciate the color, guys. Thank you very much.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

Omar.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Best of luck in the next quarter.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

Omar, the liftings for 2019 May were 60 for the Middle East.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Okay. Got it.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

This looks like they are 54.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Anyway. Thanks, Omar.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou

Okay, thanks, guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sean Morgan with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Hey, guys. I just want to touch back. I think Ted mentioned that the interest rate on some of the new loans that were refinanced, there's a component of it that's tied to an environmental Poseidon Principles type element. I just wanted to figure out how material that is. I think in the past you talked about there's I think 16 VLGCs that you could potentially retrofit for LPG propulsion. I know some of your competitors are kind of implementing that and pushing ahead with it. Just wondering if there's any kind of incremental savings that might be material enough to push you towards LPG or whether you think you get enough benefit to realize those savings from scrubber retrofits alone. Does this kind of change the strategy at all in terms of how you approach the environment and just propulsion of the vessels?

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Ted will give you a little bit specific on what the incentive is in kind of percentage terms. We, of course, are looking at the one competitor who is moving to retrofit ships and others, of course, who are building ships that are LPG-fueled. It's not something which we have excluded from the possibilities for ourselves. We were always interested in that LPG as an alternative fuel for the ships, and we continue to be interested. Until now, we've chosen to have the advantage of a second mover. We're very much aware of what's going on, in touch with the manufacturers, the shipyards, and we'll see. I don't know whether the banking is enough to incentivize, but Ted will tell you what comes out of it.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

I think the short answer to your question, Sean, is it's a 10-basis-point reduction in the commercial tranche of our facility, which represents about a third of the entire facility. It's more of a way that the banks are putting their money where their mouth is. We certainly support that. I think like any business decision that we make here, it's the economics that drive it. If the economics of the investment are supported by the future fuel savings, then as John suggested, and we're comfortable with the technical aspects of it, then it's something we'll obviously look at. The financing differential alone wouldn't drive the decision.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Okay. Did the banks give you an indication of what they view as the most green-friendly, or is it not that specific yet?

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

No. At this point, I think generally within the sustainability world, LPG seems to be viewed as a bridge fuel. Better than the existing alternatives. Not as green as, I don't know, wind or solar or hydrogen or something, but those aren't really on the table at this point. The metric is really a calculation that measures our year-over-year average efficiency ratio across the fleet, and it's data we capture anyway. The IMO has kind of promulgated an improvement curve, and that's the basis on which this potential interest margin saving is calculated. If we can hit the levels that are already out there, then we will enjoy further interest savings.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Okay, thanks.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

I should be clear, it's up to 5 basis points year one, 5 basis points year two. It's not 10 basis points all at one go. Although we might try for that if we do a really good job on our emissions reductions.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Okay. It looks like in terms of the total year, you accelerated buybacks into your fiscal year 4 Qs, so 1 Q calendar year. If I look at the average price, I can kind of assume that some of it was done in January, February, and some of it was done more recently. Are you guys, in light of potentially weaker VLGC rates and lower LPG exports, are you getting a little more cautious in terms of using that $50 million of buyback authorization you still have outstanding? Or do you think you'll try and be aggressive in light of the lower share price?

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

We've always been cautious, and we look at it in terms of a value and an opportunity. I think we will continue in the same way.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

All right. That's all I have. Thanks, guys.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Thanks, Sean.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

You're afraid I'd tell him it's cheap.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Randy Giveans with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Howdy, gentlemen. How's it going?

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Hey, Randy.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

Hi.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Just following up on the question about scrubbers and LPG dual fuel. What is the cost differential for adding those incremental scrubbers? I know LPG, you still have two planned for later this year, versus possibly going on the dual fuel LPG side.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

Okay. Well, Randy, it's significant enough to say that it's on the high single digits in millions of dollars, the differential. It's over probably 6 - 10, maybe. We believe, from what BW reported yesterday, it looks like it's over $9 million per ship from what they reported. We believe it's a little bit more than that. Perhaps even over 10. This is where we think it is. Our interest remains. We will see how cost and pricing of the fuel develops. In the meantime, the scrubber provides an intermediate solution for us, which is very satisfactory compared to compliant fuels.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Got it. Okay. Just one more kind of general market question on possible expansion or just a completion, I guess, of the Mariner East 2 and 2S and kind of coming out of Marcus Hook up there, as well as this Pembina project on the west coast of Canada. Have you heard any updates about either of those for this year?

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

Nothing that's signed out in the public.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Tim, let Tim take that.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

Tim-

Tim Hansen
Chief Commercial Officer, Dorian LPG

Yeah.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

Have you heard?

Tim Hansen
Chief Commercial Officer, Dorian LPG

As far as we hear, the Mariner East 2 is still moving ahead and should come on later this year, which is also, I think, we haven't heard of more delays, but of course, there has been a lot of last-minute problems there before. So far, it seems to be on time now. Out of Canada, I've heard no news on the Canada project. Of course, we have seen kind of the price changes and the shut-ins of drilling and so on, then that could, of course, impact, but I have no particular figures on that.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Sure. All right. Well, hey, thanks for the color.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Thanks, Randy. Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, press star one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from the line of Eirik Haavaldsen with Pareto Securities. Please proceed with your question.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Hi.

Operator

Eirik Haavaldsen, your line is live.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Hi, Eirik.

Eirik Haavaldsen
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Yeah, sorry about that. Just one question on the time charter in strategy. You added another one now. Can you first give an indication on the rate on that second one? Secondly, what is the strategy here? Is it always going to be to balance your charter out coverage with new ships or the other way around? This is obviously adding a layer of risk to the setup in a way.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Yes. I think Tim is perfectly able to give you what goes into our thinking with respect to charter in and charter out.

Tim Hansen
Chief Commercial Officer, Dorian LPG

Yeah. I think these ships that has been added this year has been done a while ago. One was a new building, so contracted and termed up a few years ago, and the last one at least six to eight months ago, I think, we concluded the contract. You can see that the time charter in has been more opportunistic, where we thought the market would go and was confident to increase exposure a bit. Then we have chartered out also, you can say, to balance this a little bit and lock in a margin, or if we have had any changes in the markets to charter out. Also, you can say the periods are different. The time charter out that is done through the pool is very short-term , so 6- 18 months. The time charter out that we have done as Dorian is more, you can say, three or plus years, where it's more like a financial position to lock in something.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

There's also, I just want to add.

Tim Hansen
Chief Commercial Officer, Dorian LPG

Try to balance them a little bit.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Yeah. I just want to add, there's also a strategic element to chartering out. If a good customer requires a long-term charter, there is that aspect to it as well.

Eirik Haavaldsen
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Understood. Where is the three-year time charter today, and where was it back in February, so to say?

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Where is it, and how do you mean, where is it? Is it above or below the current market?

Eirik Haavaldsen
Analyst, Pareto Securities

What are you paying? I would obviously assume it's above the current market, but where, if you can be a little bit more specific.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

I don't know that we can be more specific because we have confidentiality clauses, and it has been considerably below the market, and now it may be, if the market is in the $20s, it probably is above the market, but not by very much. The thing is that we have this question often, and this is one of the disadvantages of, or a disadvantage of reporting on a quarterly basis. Because deals like this basically can only be reconciled at the end of the day. You can have including charter out or charter in. Last year, we had ships chartered out, and at the end of the calendar year, they were very deeply out of the money because the market had gone up to the $60,000, $70,000 levels, and we were fixed in the $20s.

In the meantime, however, those ships in the early part of that period were providing a very good cash flow buffer for us. It's very difficult to look at these on a kind of flash basis. You have to look at it in a consistent, over time, on a rolling basis.

Eirik Haavaldsen
Analyst, Pareto Securities

No, I agree on that. Just if we can maybe understand a little bit more the strategy, because is this an intention to kind of continue to build on this, expand the fleet via time charter-in agreements? Obviously now with rates being a little bit lower, then you can say there should be ample opportunity to charter in ships at rates that at least three months ago seemed attractive. I don't know. I'm just trying to kind of understand.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Yeah. Ted is just pointing out to me. Yeah. Ted is pointing out to me that we can disclose a number.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

You can calculate it, Eirik, from the numbers that we've disclosed. It's fair to say that it's $24-$26 a day. I'll call it $25 and change or so, $25-ish a day. You can extrapolate that from the numbers we've disclosed.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

On your next question-

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Yeah.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Our chartering window is open, and Tim can tell you whether you can tell your chartering people to give us a call or not.

Tim Hansen
Chief Commercial Officer, Dorian LPG

Yeah, I think, as a strategy, also, we took a longer-term time charter from a new building, is that to have a mixed portfolio of owned and TC tonnage. Yes, if there are opportunities, we can look at it if we believe it makes sense. As you say, rates are probably lower than they were, say, a couple of months ago.

Eirik Haavaldsen
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay. Thank you.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Thanks, Eirik.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Tsung with Webber Research. Please proceed with your question.

Chris Tsung
Analyst, Webber Research

Hey, guys. How are you today?

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Good.

Chris Tsung
Analyst, Webber Research

I just kind of wanted to get a couple of questions on the scrubber program going in. I know there's the plan to retrofit 12. We've done 10. There's about two left for the rest of the year. Given the spread on bunker prices and the benefits you get from lower emissions and the black smoke and everything, are there plans to, one, suspend it because the spreads aren't there or maybe perhaps expand it to kind of meet my next question, which is the sustainability metric that you guys are trying to hit on that refinancing?

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

We are doing one ship now. We have further two scrubbers to fit and several ships due for dry docking this year. In time, when the ships go to dry dock, we will decide whether to fit them or not to fit them. We may fit them this year, or we may defer and do it at a later time on ships that are dry-docked next year going forward. We have it under review. As you said, the spread is closed in a lot. We're happy to have the scrubbers that we have on board because we still have the saving that they produce, and if the market is $20,000 or close to $20,000, $3,000, $4,000 a day makes a lot more difference than it does between $50 and $55.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Yeah. You had a follow-up? You had another question, Chris, about the financing?

Chris Tsung
Analyst, Webber Research

Yeah. Thanks. Just one more on the scrubber. Just I know in the last quarter that they were being done like around 33-35 days, and I know the shipyards were having trouble due to Corona. Has there been any sort of delays? The one that's in dry dock now at Constitution, are we still aiming for like the 33, 35 days?

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

She's aimed to be at 40 days. That's the plan. We are hoping to do it sooner, Chris.

Chris Tsung
Analyst, Webber Research

Okay. No, it makes sense. Thanks. Yes, Ted, for the financing, I guess I was wondering if you can go into a little bit more detail. I think Sean covered this earlier, but for the average efficiency ratio, is it based off of a certain benchmark or is it an absolute unit, specific unit gram of CO2 per ton mile that you guys are trying to achieve? I just want to get a sense of what are the goals here that either you set or the bank has set that you guys are trying to achieve.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

It's really IMO guidance. It's not the guidance the bank set. It's about a 2.7% reduction per year, and it's based on the deadweight of the ship. There's a metric that the IMO puts together, and for a ship of this much deadweight, this is the kind of emissions that you ought to be targeting. When we file the Form 10-K in a couple of weeks, the loan agreement will be appended as an exhibit, and there's a couple of pages that outline the terms there, and I think it's probably best that we not get into the details until we disclose it. Not because there's anything so exciting or incendiary, but I don't need to file a Form 8-K in advance of filing my Form 10-K. I think there's plenty of meat in there. I guess to give all credit where it's due, ours looks similar to what International Seaways did. That seems to be kind of a market standard.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

Chris, it's just based on the energy efficiency operational indicator or in short called EEOI. Most of the people use that, and it has to do with the CO2 emission per unit of transport work done, if you want to know. You will see more details, I'm sure, in the press and in our filings.

Chris Tsung
Analyst, Webber Research

All right. Yeah, great. Thanks. I know you guys may have seen that we put out a sustainability report and a scorecard. It's something that I'm digging into right now. I get a little excited about this. Sorry for more color than that sheet is necessary. I guess just for the last question that I have is the 40% LTV for margin reduction, is that sort of tethered to the NAV at the date the deal was done or is it more or less floating where it's above 41% or 40%, it goes up 10 basis points. If it's below, then it drops down and it changes quarter-over-quarter?

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Not quite. It's tethered to the actual LTV at every quarter based on the vessels in the security package and that amount of debt. There's sort of the no harm, no foul range, which is between 40% and 60% or 59.999%. It's 250 basis points. If it goes above 60% or below 40%, that's when the benefits kick in. There's sort of a wide range of LTV before there's a change in the margin.

Chris Tsung
Analyst, Webber Research

I see. 20% band. Got it. Great. Thanks, Ted. Thanks, everyone. That's it for me.

Ted Young
CFO, Dorian LPG

Thanks, Chris.

John Lycouris
CEO, Dorian LPG

Okay, thanks. Bye.

Operator

We have no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

John Hadjipateras
Chairman, President, and CEO, Dorian LPG

Thank you all very much, and stay safe, have a good summer, and talk to you soon. Bye-bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.