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Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026

Mar 3, 2026

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess we'll get started. Hi, I'm Shane Brett, U.S. semiconductor equipment analyst. I'm honored to host Doug Bettinger, CFO of Lam Research. Before we kick it off with questions, I'd like to pass it to Doug for a safe harbor.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah, I need to get my attorneys happy, so let me read the safe harbor real quick, then we can get into the meat and potatoes here. Today's discussion may include forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. That's all I'm gonna read. Please have a look at the website for the complete safe harbor, and it's up there on the screen. With that, we can jump into the Q&A.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Let's get started then. I actually wanna start with some longer term questions, about strategy. Just going back to your 2018 Analyst Day, it's, you know, it's a while back, but that was when you first laid out the sort of etch and deposition intensity thesis.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yes.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Fast-forward eight years and two Analyst Days, it really seems like that thesis has came into fruition now. Just, can you walk us through the journey that Lam's taken over the last eight years and where we are today in the etch and deposition story?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah. I mean, I'll take you back to the messaging that we reinforced about a year ago at the most recent Investor Day, but it's the same thing we've been saying since 2018. In fact, even if you go all the way back to the first one I did, I think in 2014, the messaging was consistent. Architectures are evolving in the third dimension, right? If you look at it's pervasive everywhere in the industry. I think the first one that happened was 3D NAND. I think that story is well understood, and I'm looking around the room, everybody knows what happened there. When that transition happened, our addressable market per wafer doubled. Our SAM per wafer doubled. That was the first example of an evolution that we see happening everywhere.

The messaging we brought out about a year ago, numerically it was in foundry and logic, our addressable market per wafer is doubling between 5 nanometer and CFET. The journey along the way has incremental steps. Gate-all-around is showing up right now in the industry. When we see gate-all-around happening, our SAM grows by $1 billion for every 100,000 wafer starts at capacity the industry puts in place from gate-all-around because of etch and deposition intensity. It's a 3D structure, the sheets. If you look at the representation of it, and it's all over the place, you can see it on our website, it grows in a meaningful fashion. What's coming in after that is backside power. You have a similar step up, in fact, the numbers are exactly the same.

For backside power, for every 100,000 wafer starts capacity the industry puts in place, again, it's an incremental $1 billion a SAM, and so forth. These are steps along the journey to get to the CFET. In both NAND and DRAM, you have a similar story where our addressable market per wafer grows by 1.7x or 1.8x in this similar journey because of the evolution in DRAM is another example, right? 6F² steps to 4F², eventually goes to 3D DRAM. The industry is working on this all. Everybody's working on it. These opportunities are showing up. When you look at the outperformance of Lam Research over the last several years, it is because of this.

Advanced packaging is another example. I know you're gonna ask me about that later, I'll save that. All of these things play to the strength of what we do. We deposit films on the wafer, we remove them. Etch and deposition, the intensity is growing. We're in a great spot. I like to tell people we live in a good neighborhood, we're building the best house in a really good neighborhood because, in this case, of the strength of our product portfolio. We have the strongest portfolio right now of products, I think, that we've ever had because we've meaningfully increased the spending in R&D and brought some great new products to market. How that shows up is last year, our addressable, our SAM as a percent of overall WFE investment was in the low 30s%.

Actually, in 2024, it was in the low 30s%. In 2025, it approached the mid-30s%. When we look over the next several years, that moves to the high 30s% as a percent of overall spending. That's the "we live in a good neighborhood." When we look at that growing SAM, we believe we win half of it because of the product portfolio. When you put it all together, that's the story of Lam Research. It has been over the last several years, and it will be into the future. Thanks for starting there.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Of course. I guess I mean, you sort of alluded to it, when I think of Lam, people tend to associate it with NAND. Something that you've kind of laid out since, I guess, 2018 was this beyond NAND strategy, where you're sort of aiming to better balance the company across all three device segments.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yep.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Just, today, your end market exposure is as close to WFE as probably as it's ever been.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

I think that's true. Yeah. I think that's right, Shane.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

What's gone right beyond just these architecture transitions? Like, is the R&D put in the right place? What went right for Lam?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah. No, thanks for asking that question. I think that's important to understand it. Everybody historically has thought of us as the memory equipment company. If you go back four years ago, when you looked at our equipment, just the equipment portion of the business, 60% of our sales went into memory. Fast-forward to 2025, that flipped. 59% was in foundry and logic last year. What's happened? We put investments in place to grow the footprint in foundry and logic to broaden things out. Now, listen, I still love our memory exposure. NAND is still our strongest end market. The reason in the last several years we've outperformed was because of how we deployed those R&D dollars. Super excited about that, right? Gate-all-around, we're doing extraordinarily well. Backside power, we're gonna do extraordinarily well. Advanced packaging. We're doing extraordinarily well.

When you look at that, it was a conscious focus on where we put the R&D to take advantage of the growth that we saw and we delivered on this. We feel great about kind of what we've done, how we've succeeded, and it's because of how we've invested.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess let's start on the Foundry Logic portion is I feel like the results are self-explanatory. The Foundry Logic revenue is up 49% in 2025. you sort of talk about your SAM going from some increasing 2x from 5 nanometer to CFET.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yes.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Where are we in that journey?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Oh, ooh, early.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Early. Okay.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Early.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Can I get.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

That was only a year ago, right? CFET is still late decade, kind of profile, right? People are moving it around. The evolution, like I described, it steps with gate-all-around, then backside power helps. Advanced packaging also contributes to this, that's growing in a meaningful way. CFET shows up later in the decade.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess to put it in a different question, your outperformance in 2025, and we have you guys increasing share by about 250 basis points. How much of that was expected? How much of that was sort of Lam's internal developments kind of falling into the right place? How much of that was kind of the external environment leading you to that outperformance?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

A little bit of both, but important was, like I said, when we were coming through COVID, we doubled down on R&D investment because we saw these things.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

That's what's contributed more than anything to it, right? The products that we have and the markets that are growing.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Got it. As I think about Foundry Logic this year, how should we think about your Foundry Logic growth this year? I know you're very excited about leading-edge logic growth this year, but can you level set us on what you expect for Foundry Logic in 2026?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah. It's gonna be strong. It's gonna be very strong. I mean, I think everybody understands it's gonna be strong, driven by these big compute die in AI. Equally important, though, is the investment in DRAM, right? These two things kind of have to go together if you look at system architectures, and they are, right? When you look at the growth in WFE this year, those are the two biggest contributors to it, followed by NAND, right? Also storage is being invested in. I think everybody in the room kind of understands what's going on. I mean, that's what's driving the growth this year. We think WFE Last year it was $110 billion. This year we think it's $135 billion. The biggest contributors are leading edge foundry and DRAM.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess let's talk about 2026. You've spoken about 23% industry growth. It's somewhat higher than peers. How would you sort of characterize the risks to the upside and the downside relative to that 23%?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah, no, that's a great question. Right now, our assessment, I think you're hearing everybody in the industry describe it this way, the industry is clean room constrained, right? There's just not enough clean room to supply the growth and demand that's out there. When we look at 135, our assessment is it's constrained by clean room. Demand is stronger than that. When you think about what that might mean going into 2027, it probably means 2027 is gonna be a pretty darn strong year also. In fact, I know it's gonna be, because the industry is undersupplying demand this year.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess is that sort of confidence towards 2027 sort of your customers giving you that visibility? Has that visibility that your customers have given you extended relative to where we're at, let's say, this time last year?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Probably as good as it's ever been. I mean, here's the nature of the conversations that's going on between us and our customers, which is we don't wanna be what constrains their ability to output. The conversation we're having with everybody is, "Tell us what you need. What's, what's the plus and minus," right? Where is this going this year as well as, okay, you're building all of these new facilities or expanding or what have you. Tell us what that looks like from a timing standpoint, because we don't wanna be the constraining item. We don't wanna not be able to supply the customer base what they need. The nature of the conversations is pretty robust because everybody's trying to figure out how to supply the demand that looks very strong.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess as we think about kind of your initiatives to not be the bottleneck in this industry, but your revenue's essentially doubled from 2024. I mean, I guess your revenue could double from 2024 to 2027. That probably takes a lot of building up supply to do. Like, you're probably kind of running around the entire world, probably trying to bring up supply. How much effort has gone in to sort of make sure that you guys are ready to sort of meet this demand?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah, I mean, that is a huge effort at the company right now, right? The people that manage our supply chain, obviously, are talking to all of our suppliers to make sure they understand what does the roadmap look like, what could it look like. They all need to be ready and prepared, and we're making sure that they understand where we're going, like we're doing with our own customers, right? All this has to be consistent. In our own internal manufacturing capability, we're expanding.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

We're expanding everywhere. The good thing about us expanding is the lead time for us to expand our footprint isn't as long as our customers' is to expand theirs. Like I said, our goal, and I think we will succeed in this, is not to be the constraining item for where our customers are trying to go.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Thousands of suppliers are made ready for this tidal wave

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Everybody gets a demand signal from us like we get from our customers, and then you try to make sure, you know, kind of min-max, right? Where it might go, and then you have to understand your own lead time to make decisions to be prepared as well as where are your suppliers so that we're all ready.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Got it. Before we kind of touch on sort of your end market specific initiatives, I wanna just go into gross margin because I think it's really interesting how, from my perspective, it almost feels it's a once in a generation opportunity to maybe be a bit more aggressive in pricing, given everyone wants your tools. How should we think about your gross margin, especially in the context of you're spending $2.5 billion of R&D per year?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Mm-hmm.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

That's a lot. I really hope you guys get paid for it a lot more than we should. Yeah. Just how should we think about your current gross margin of 49%, the 50% you laid out in 2027-2028 for this opportunity as well?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Listen, at the end of the day, you're always trying to get paid fairly for the value that you're delivering. We're doing that this year. We did it last year. We do it every year, right? I mean, it's just running the business. There's some pluses and minuses in gross margin for us this year. There's a little bit of a headwind from customer mix, meaning smaller customers are becoming a smaller percentage of the overall revenue profile, right? The big guys are growing, and they tend to get the most favorable pricing. We're managing through that. Obviously, pricing is always a conversation. You're managing your cost structure all the time to optimize that, and obviously, we're expanding there everywhere. All of this kind of goes together to get us to that financial model of roughly 50% gross margin.

I feel pretty comfortable with where that is right now.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right. I think it's going back to where we last February, some of that 50% did include some sort of internal efficiencies. How is that progressing relative to kind of the roadmap that you laid out?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Spot on.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Spot on.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Extraordinarily well. Yeah. What Shane is asking about is, you know, we've developed this close-to-customer manufacturing strategy to try to be as close to where the customer's fabs are building tools as we possibly can be, right? Your lead time then shortens a little bit. What that's meant for us is we've grown our footprint in the Asia region, which is where all the fabs in the world are. We've always had U.S. capability. We still do in California, in Oregon, in Ohio, and that stuff is comfortable right now. The growth right now we're seeing is globally, and we're trying to expand globally to support it. It's just, it's better for the customer interaction. It's also better from a cost standpoint.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

You're sort of front and center of this evolving manufacturing cluster in Malaysia now.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

We are. Yeah.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Our biggest factory in the network is in Malaysia.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. I guess when you spoke about 2026, the kind of growth drivers you've laid out were leading-edge logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging. I wanna talk about DRAM as one of the kind of areas that I feel is underappreciated about Lam is your position in the back end, particularly the HBM-specific steps-

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Mm-hmm.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

... specific steps with, Syndion and SABRE.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

You've kind of guided for 40% growth in advanced packaging.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

We did, yeah.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

How should I think about your kind of position around HBM? Can you talk a little about Syndion and SABRE's role there?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

We have a very strong footprint in the Through-silicon via process steps. I call it the drill and fill, and it's what you just mentioned. It's the silicon etching, which is the tool we call Syndion, and then it's an electroplating process that puts down the conductive material. That's our SABRE 3D tool. We have very strong market share in these steps. We own nearly the entirety of the market in the TSV, and we do other things in advanced packaging as well. When you look at where that is growing, it's in high bandwidth memory, right? You've got HBM3E going to four, going to 4E. The stack gets bigger. The etching gets more technically demanding. That plays to what we're really good at doing. By the way, it also shows up in advanced packaging and foundry and logic as well. It's not just HBM.

Those two things kind of go together from a what's driving demand standpoint. It's all the AI compute requirements. Both of those are growing in a pretty significant way this year for us, such that we describe it as 40% growth this year. Advanced packaging is doing really well. It is very etch and deposition intensive.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess, I mean, it's not a small portion of your business anymore as well, 'cause back in 2024 it was $1 billion.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

You said it was $1 billion. You've done your homework.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I've done my homework, yes. I guess we're guided for 40%+ growth. Like, how good can this advanced packaging portion of your business be as we sort of look out to 2027 and 2028?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

I think this is a secular grower in the foreseeable future, right? Those large compute die are pretty much as big as they can get. They're at the reticle limit. They can't get any larger. To drive performance then, you need to put all of these dies close together as possible in a packaging structure, right? The electron path is shorter. That's what's happening. Advanced packaging is enabling this, and our TSV is, like I said, extremely strong across the totality of the industry.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. I guess moving on to the front end for DRAM, just you've highlighted 4F² and vertical scaling as a significant opportunity.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yep.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I think your SAM, you've laid out a 1.7x increase for DRAM. Just where are we in that journey? How are you positioned to kind of win these tool records for 4F² and future DRAM nodes?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah, we feel really good about it. The strength of our product portfolio is extremely well-positioned. The tool that we call Akara, which is our new conductor etch platform, we believe is gonna be very strong in these very challenging high aspect ratio etching around the cell. Yeah, I feel good about how we're set up. 4F² is still a node or two away for the industry. Decisions have already been made, and we've talked about some of these.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess you mentioned Akara there. Conductor etch, I think you have a bit more than 50% market share there. Just how are you thinking about kind of your market share gains with Akara? You know, I know you called out some leading-edge logic and DRAM share, kind of wins at your earnings call.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Mm-hmm.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

How good can this kind of tool and this segment be for you guys?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

It's a key contributor to when we look at that growing SAM, our ability, we think, to win half of that growing SAM, Akara is a strong contributor to it.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. I guess I think about the other areas of your DRAM share gains. You've also called out dry resist. Can you sort of talk about how that kind of plays into that 1.7x SAM increase in your market share gains within that?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yep, it's a part. Yeah, thanks for asking about dry resist. Listen, this is ramping into production this year with one of our largest DRAM customers. You know, it's something we've been talking about for years, we've been investing in for years. This is an expansion of our market. It's hard in this business to find market expansion opportunities, meaning get into a new segment of the business. We've never been in the photoresist, the track, equipment business until now. What we identified, and I give two CTOs ago the credit for seeing this, it was a unique idea where we said, "Hey, if we put the photoresist down using a deposition type process, we can do it more efficiently.

We can figure out how to help ASML be more productive with their EUV tool by more efficiently absorbing the photon energy. That's essentially the simple way that I think about it. It's much more economically or ecologically friendly as well. You're not spinning wet chemistry off the wafer. When we look at it's an opportunity from technical differentiation. That's what's driven the decision, right? From one of our largest DRAM customers. We've talked about another tool of the record decision with another one. The fact that this is ramping into production basically tells you there's real value here, right? We're extremely optimistic about the opportunity for this to continue to grow over time.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. When we move over to NAND is at your 2025 Analyst Day, you outlined the $40 billion upgrade TAM opportunity, but that was based on a twenty-

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

For NAND.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

For NAND, yeah.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

That was based on 20% industry bit growth. I feel every person in this room probably has an opinion around that 20% industry bit growth after.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

It's probably higher. By the way, if you think back a year ago, it wasn't quite 20%. It was mid high teens.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Oh, really? Okay.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah. I think I'm not gonna give you a number. You can ask my NAND customers what they think it is, but I think everybody believes it's decently stronger. Yes. What we described a year ago was a view that in NAND, over the next several years is what we said, that investment would largely be characterized by upgrading the installed base, and we thought over the next several years it would be $40 billion. That's still what's happening, but that $40 billion is gonna get spent sooner.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Will eventually get supplemented by wafer capacity.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

It is. From your perspective, you kind of called out that high teens bit growth, that you outlined that $40 billion TAM in, but clearly the NAND market has seen kind of a pretty big inflection over the last few months. How has that inflection sort of changed your view about this NAND market?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Well, I think everybody, and I'm not gonna give you a number, but I think everybody believes bit demand is stronger than high teens, certainly. I don't.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Stronger than 12 months ago.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Stronger than 12 months ago, driven by the need for storage. KB cache is driving this. If you haven't seen Jensen's CES speech, you should go look at it, because he laid this out and it's very much what is gonna drive the incremental demand, certainly that's where it's showing up. When we look at the industry, in 2026, this year, NAND investment is gonna grow unquestionably. A lot of our customers have the opportunity to either invest their constrained clean room in DRAM or NAND, and when we look at it this year, more of it is gonna go to DRAM because there's more profitability there right now. NAND is still undersupplied, and it's still very much...

It's gonna grow this year for sure, but it's still very much on the come line relative to the investments that likely occur into next year.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Here's one thing I think I'm really proud of Lam Research about, which is we're outperforming the industry, and our strongest end market is probably growing the slowest.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

NAND. What does that tell you? You've already asked about it. We are meaningfully gaining footprint in foundry and logic. We're doing extremely well in DRAM. Our strength, if you look at all three of the segments of the business, is very much We're very strong in NAND, and the growth there is still into the future. Our ability to continue outperforming, I feel really good about.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I wanna just ask one more question about NAND, but your kind of share specifically is a number that sort of stayed with me for six years was for your 2020 Analyst Day, you commented that you had cumulatively processed 26 million more wafers than your competition across the three most critical applications. Just how do the learnings from your install base translate into wins at future node and just make Lam's market share within NAND just creep up generation by generation?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah. Just maintaining the positions we have and the stack grows, our business grows. Because we are in the three... I described three critical applications. We put that stack down. We pretty much own that. We own the most critical etches down through the stack, the channel hole etch. Everybody kind of talks about that a lot. We own all of the metallization, which today is tungsten, but it's moving to molybdenum. Just say moly. It's hard to say molybdenum. Moly. We're in very strong position to do extraordinarily well with the transition to moly. Those are the three critical steps in NAND. Just the fact that those are your positions, you see everything going on in the structure.

There's incremental stuff that's showing up all the time because we are the ones that see the challenges our customers have, and they come to us and talk with us about it, right? Some of the stresses in the stack, right? We brought a tool out called VECTOR DT that does back a wafer stress management because we saw that and we knew we could actually help our customers with that challenge. That's an example. There's lots of other things like that as well. Shane.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess from 3x active moly, 4x active merge debt steps, those two, like, with the kind of increase in layer count, your SAM only gets bigger.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yes.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

You're very well positioned to continue gaining share there.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

You've got it exactly right.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

It's just a matter of time for when your customers, I guess, pull the trigger on spending.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

They will. There's business there.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Before I kind of pass it over to questions, I wanna go back to logic actually, because you kind of talked about how your foundry logic SAM per wafer increases 2x, which is, it's higher than the 1.8x for NAND that you put out and the 1.7x for DRAM.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Like, what's going on there that's kind of expanding your SAM so much? How are you kind of positioned to sort of gain that sort of incremental steps or the share gains there as incremental SAM that's emerging?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah, again, it's an architectural innovation going in the third dimension. We've already talked about all the steps along the way with gate-all-around and backside power and advanced packaging, and then the CFET. If you haven't seen what these structures look like, go to the investor section of our website. We've got some pretty cool slides out there, I think, that lay it out. You can just see it graphically. That's what's happening. To do this, you need to deposit different kinds of material down on the wafer. That's our deposition business, and then you need to shape it or remove it. That's our etch business. It's just this is the evolution of how things are changing.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. With that, I would like to open it up for questions if anyone has any. Charlie.

I see a hand right here. Can we get a mic up here? Thank you. Oh, in the middle. Yep, there you go.

Speaker 3

Shane.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi.

Speaker 3

Hi, Doug. I am Shane's colleague. I cover Asia SEMIs.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Okay.

Speaker 3

My first question is about your China business. For example, first of all, can you talk about the competition from NAURA and MEC?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Sure.

Speaker 3

I know for some accounts like ONTC, CX, and probably you cannot supply, but outside of those restricted accounts, how do you comment about the competition and those are your business growth in China in the coming two years?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yep. No, that's a great question. Let me step back a little bit. When we look at China WFE this year, we think it's flat-ish, maybe a little bit of growth. The growth in the industry is with the global multinationals, largely outside of China, maybe a little bit in China. Relative to the Chinese equipment companies, they are growing quite a bit. They have over the last several years. I would tell you there's a whole bunch of customers that used to be very big, important customers for us that we are prohibited from selling to today, right? There's end use and end user restrictions that the U.S. government has put in place that we can't sell to any longer. That's where the Chinese guys are doing really well.

It's a captive set of customers for them, largely because we can't sell to them any longer.

Speaker 3

I mean, outside of those restriction, I mean, just purely based on the technology performers, right, where you can still sell your equipment to, how do you see those China's competitors' capability whatsoever or progression?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Our, our share where we can still compete in China is very strong, right? We're winning with old equipment, older equipment, right? The Reliant product line is very strong in China. You know, last quarter, our China business was 35% of revenue, you can see how well we're doing there. It's just there's a whole bunch of customers we used to have that we no longer have.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you. Very quick, another question. You, you mentioned about some potential constraint, right? For example, if TSMC this year, they're going to do $54 billion CapEx.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

At the midpoint, yep.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Next year, probably consensus is like $60 billion-$75 billion. If TSMC want to do like a full speed expansion, let's say next year they want to spend $70 billion CapEx, can Lam or your industry peers can really supply to that CapEx?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

No, that's a good question, and it's kind of come up already in the Q&A Shane and I have been having, right? Right now, the conversations with every one of our large customers is, "Tell us where you're going. Tell us what your roadmap looks like. Tell us what you think you're gonna need next year so that we can be ready to supply to them." If they're gonna spend whatever they're gonna spend, we know what they're planning to do because absolutely, at the end of the day, they don't want us to be a constraining item for them. Those conversations are pretty robust. You've got pretty good visibility into where everybody's clean room footprint is gonna be next year, and we're doing everything we need to do to be prepared to supply to them whatever they need next year.

That's the nature of the conversations that's happening. Good question. Thank you for that.

Speaker 3

So sorry. Thank you. Gustavo here. Just about this demand visibility stuff.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Mm-hmm.

Speaker 3

How far out can you see this going on, the demand?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Like I said, it's into next year right now. It's into next year.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess before we pass it back to the audience, I wanna ask one question because you mentioned Reliant, but just the CSBG business. The reason why I'm asking this is in your last earnings presentation, you kind of released the install base numbers again.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yes, it went to 102,000 chambers in the installed base up from 96 last year.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

75,000 in 2021. It's a big number. Just how does that kind of increased install base kind of almost accelerate the CSBG growth?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Thank you for asking about CSBG, right? We've been up here talking for half hour. It's the first time it's come up.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I'm sorry.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

It's okay. A third of the business is what we call the Customer Support Business Group. What is it? Four things, spare parts, service, equipment upgrades, the mature product line that we call Reliant. If you roll all of that together, the R&D intensity of that business is pretty modest. You don't need to invest a ton because the R&D's already been invested in when the equipment was first designed, including all the spare parts, specification, everything needed. This is a great part of the business model. When I talk about our business, I often will describe this as my favorite part of the business model. Listen, I love everything. The etch general manager is gonna come yell at me because I'm not loving on his business. I love his business too. This is a great part of the business model.

If you look at the longevity of our equipment, it runs for decades. Actually, it really never goes away. That's why we report that chamber count at the end of every year. It grows every year. The opportunity to sell more spares, to upgrade what's there, to sell the older equipment, all of this grows quite nicely. Again, if you go back to the collateral from the investor day next year, we told you by 2028 it was gonna grow by 1.5x , and in this described the future where it was gonna double. It's because equipment grows every year. Spare parts intensity is growing. Advanced services. Listen, we're really excited about our advanced service portfolio using equipment intelligence, AI, algorithms, cobots to deliver service in a more predictable, sustainable way.

We are beginning to deliver service in a results-based kind of structure. Service historically has been show up and do a task. You need to do some maintenance, so call Lam, we'll send engineers out, and we'll do the task. Clean the chamber, open it, put the gel back down, close the closed chamber, turn it back over to manufacturing. We're modifying how we do a lot of this to, okay, we know more about the capability of our equipment than anybody in the world. Using the data and the telemetry on the tool, as well as cobots to deliver service, we're able to predictably deliver improved performance. We're beginning to kinda modify a little bit about how we deliver service to be results-based. Is nicely profitable. That's part of the story in CSBG.

It is wonderfully cash generative as well in terms of, like, the contribution of where profits and cash come from at the company.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I don't wanna put you on the spot, but as when we kinda think about kinda the services revenue per one tool, would you say that kind of number is kinda steadily increasing given your customers don't want any downtime, you're kind of improving yields for them, there's a lot going on in services?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Yeah. Our goal with some of this more results-based contract is to grow dollars faster than just that chamber count number. We've been pretty successful over the years at doing that. We intend to continue to do that again with some of these results-based contracts.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. We have one minute left. Doug, is there anything that you kinda think that's underappreciated by the investment community about Lam or anything you wanna kinda end on?

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Listen, I think we've had a pretty comprehensive set of questions, Shane. Thanks for doing your homework. This last point I think is important to understand. Everybody thinks of WFE, and I do too. I love the fact that WFE is growing so much, $110 billion-$135 billion. I think the underappreciated part of the business is this more annuity type stream in the Customer Support Business Group, CSBG. Don't forget about that. It's an important part about how we deliver profitability, about how we deliver growth, about how we deliver free cash flow. Just don't lose sight of it, and thanks for asking about it at the very end. People often forget about that. It's a great part of how we do what we do.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Awesome. Increasing SAM, increasing share, and you have a nice annuity business. Things are looking great for Lam.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

We live in a good neighborhood, and we're building a wonderful house on the top of the hill. Maybe that's the way I like to think about it.

Shane Brett
U.S. Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Morgan Stanley

All right. Great. That brings us to time. Thanks very much.

Doug Bettinger
EVP and CFO, Lam Research

Awesome. Thanks for coming.

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