Great. Good morning, everybody. Welcome back to day two of our Global Staples Conference. Hopefully, everyone had a productive first day. No shortage of headlines and news to process, without question. I'm sure there's a lot more to come. We're really thrilled to have Mondelēz International here with us again today. With us, we've got Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put, CFO Luca Zaramella. Welcome, gentlemen.
Thank you.
Hi.
Thanks so much for being here. Maybe a good way to start it off is with you, Dirk. A lot of topics to cover, obviously, including cocoa, U.S. cookie and biscuit trends, pricing elasticities in Europe, and the overall health of the consumer and whatnot. Maybe starting a little bit bigger picture first, I think if we take a step back and you think back to the company's strategic launch in 2018, you've managed to deliver through lots of volatility, very consistent results, at least in line with your long-term algorithm. I'm curious if the shifts over the past year or so in consumer behavior and input cost volatility require a different strategic approach now or just more tactical moves as you continue to sort of work through it.
Yeah, good question. In fact, we have asked ourselves the same question, obviously, as we saw the different trends around the world emerge because the strategy that we had put in place in 2018 had worked very well. We asked an outside-in opinion, and the conclusion of that opinion was in line with what we were thinking, that the strategy, the long-term strategy, is still very valid. The slowdown that we, for instance, see in the snacking consumption in the U.S., we went quite deep to understand what's going on with the consumers. We believe that for our categories, 90% of the slowdown is driven by the economic circumstances of the consumer. There's a little bit about protein that could be having an effect on our categories, but there is nothing structural to our opinion.
We still believe that our strategy of building presence in the three, four categories that we want to be really present around the world, supporting our brands, driving distribution, reinvesting in the business, and so on, is still very, very valid. However, on the short term, it is clear to us that 2025 and potentially 2026, we need to play a little bit different, more short-term oriented. In 2025, our way of thinking about it is particularly in chocolate, we want to deliver what we would call a reasonable P&L, which is a reasonable top-line growth, as we have said, to sort of 4% or 5%, and then a bottom line, which is a 10% EPS decline. That's not great.
Seeing the circumstances with cocoa, we thought that was an acceptable P&L, and we still have sight to deliver that, while at the same time trying to protect the category and making sure that consumers do not exit the category. So far, so good, I would say. For next year, what we are planning to do is we think, first of all, that cocoa will help, that cocoa costs will come down versus where they are this year. That will give us some extra margin of which we will reinvest part and slow a part to the bottom line, delivering an on-algorithm year. I would say in 2026, we're kind of back on our strategy. We will continue to monitor what's happening to the consumer because there are many things going on. At this stage, we don't think that there's a structural change in our categories that would require a change of strategy.
Great. OK. Thank you for that. Luca, I think it makes sense maybe to dig in a little bit to the company's recent second quarter earnings in late July a bit more, where you reaffirmed your full year 2025 organic sales growth guidance of about 5%. Also noted that U.S. retailer restocking, which was a headwind in each of the year's first two quarters, along with the impact of hotter weather in Europe that led to softer chocolate demand for a short period of time, have resulted in sort of additional headwinds to the year maybe that have reduced the company's flexibility, I think, as you termed it, for the full year outlook. Maybe you can expand a little bit on what you've seen in August as it pertains to retailer restocking and whether the weather in Europe has sort of normalized over the past month or so.
Yeah. Thank you, Andrew, for the question. As we look at the first half, it is without any doubt that the couple of headwinds you mentioned were not contemplated in our original thinking for 2025+ . They came a little bit unexpected. I have to say the trade restocking in the U.S. is behind us because actually, we run now at quite low level. Going lower would put most likely at risk service levels. I would say all things considered, and considering that we are increasing prices in the U.S., that was not a bad thing at all. It is, for the most part, behind us. As far as the hot weather went, I think you saw the temperatures yourself in Europe. Chocolate consumption is impacted and was impacted by hot weather, particularly in the U.K., Germany. Those are the biggest markets that we have in Europe.
The headwind partly materialized in Q2. Importantly, the high level of stock we enter Q3 with is going to have a little bit of an impact in revenues in Q3. As far as elasticities go, we started the year in Europe with very benign elasticities. The price was implemented. It hit the shelves. We didn't see material dislocation in terms of volume. In Q2, it is tough to discern what is hot weather and what is real elasticity. As we enter Q3, I think elasticities are a little bit higher than what we would have expected. Quite frankly, the big activation that is happening in back-to-school and, importantly, the preparation for the Christmas season is going to tell us what elasticities really are. We still believe that our brands are quite strong.
As we mentioned a few times, we have implemented PPA as well, price pack architecture in Europe specifically, to protect specific price points. There is a plan in terms of promo activities to stimulate consumptions. We will have to see how Q3 plays out. Importantly, I believe Christmas is going to be a strong season for chocolate in Europe.
OK. Thank you. Dirk, organic sales in North America declined about 3.5% year- over- year in the first half. Some of it, as we just discussed, was a result of retailer restocking. I think even underlying trends have been a bit softer than you'd anticipated. Across the broader packaged food space, we've been hearing from companies that the return to volume growth has, of course, been longer and more expensive than initially expected. What's your view on what's going on in North America? How do you expect the next six to 12 months to look, I guess, both from a consumer standpoint and for Mondelēz International more specifically?
Yeah. First of all, if we go to the consumer, I had some conversations with colleagues in other categories in food and drinks, and we're all seeing the same thing. The basket of the consumers, the money they spend when they do their shopping trips, it doesn't depend on which social class they're in. In the last 24- 30 months, it has not gone up. The consumer is spending almost exactly the same amount of money now for two and a half years. If you think about it, in those two and a half years, prices of everything have gone up. The consequence of that is that the quantities they bought overall have come down and that they have mixed a little bit in what they buy. They go first to their basic necessities, bread, milk, and so on.
There's a part of the basket that they will use on things like snacking. What we're seeing is a reflection of what the consumer is doing. They have no inclination to increase their spending. They're very aware that they need to be careful. They're unsure about what's going to happen, when those tariff effects really are going to hit them. I think, for the foreseeable next six to 12 months, until they start to feel different about the future, they're not going to change the way they shop. If anything, they could become even more careful. They're doing a number of things. They're switching channels, trying to go where things are cheaper. They are going for different pack sizes. They might decide on certain shopping trips not to buy certain items and so on.
For us, the name of the game is really to see how can we optimize those shopping trips and how can we maximize our chances of being in that basket. What we, for instance, see is on OREO in the U.S., the yearly penetration is going up. More families are buying OREO on a yearly basis. However, if you then start to drill down, the frequency at which they buy is going down, and the quantity they buy is going down. They're still in the brand, but not as frequent as before. The way we're trying to react to that is to offer, for sure, the product at the right price point. We know we have to be below $4. That's typically what they want to spend for a pack of OREO. We also know that they're very interested in multipacks.
I would say the less than $4 packs is more for the lower social classes. The multipacks, we see the higher social classes going to those. We also know that your typical price promotion, 30% off, is not necessarily cutting it anymore. What we need is promotions that have the price off, but that also have a big team around them that gets a big presence in store and will make the consumer, even if they were not planning to buy OREO on that trip, they will still do it. That is why we do OREO and REESE'S, or we did OREO and Coca-Cola. We have a Selena OREO at the moment. We are trying to create events that will draw in the consumer. Long story short, I think we will manage it as well as we can from a top-line perspective.
We are doing the things that I was explaining. We are also, for instance, shifting more of our focus on the channels where the consumer is shifting to. Overall, I am expecting another six to 12 months of tough sledding in North America.
Thanks for that. Dirk, I guess sticking with you and on the theme we just talked about, over the last couple of years, you really upped the level of engagement with other large companies in this space through partnerships, whether it be the Coke OREO piece that you debuted here last year, Milka Biscoff activations over the past year, and then more recently, obviously, the REESE'S OREO one, which looked delicious. I guess can you talk a bit about why you're excited about these sorts of collaborations? Maybe what's important for investors to know here? How can these be a win-win, given that some of these, like with Biscoff, it's a biscuit player globally as well, a competitor, but yet also potentially can bring more for both in these types of arrangements?
Yeah. The collaboration has kind of emerged through conversations with the different companies. Sometimes they initiated it. Sometimes we initiated it. It basically was starting with what you were saying. Is there a win-win here which we can have? In its most basic formats, which would be the REESE'S example or the Coca-Cola example, we find a way that we can launch a very exciting innovation in our product range. They do the same on REESE'S. They will have REESE'S with OREO included, which is also available here somewhere. That was the same with Coca-Cola. They launched a Coca-Cola product with OREO taste. We had our OREO with Coca-Cola. The Biscoff is different in the sense that there we are really looking, can we find a way where potentially we are competitors? If you start to look a little bit deeper, we are not really stepping into each other's territory.
I think the Biscoff consumption moment is very different from, for instance, the OREO consumption moment. We don't really have a cookie that we particularly position with coffee. Yesterday, we were talking about it. Biscoff, for those that don't know, means biscuit and coffee. It's particularly developed to eat with a coffee. In fact, I'm from Belgium, so I know how it should be done. You have to dip it in the coffee and then eat it.
I was yesterday years old when I actually learned that that's what that meant, by the way. Should have known that.
Biscoff in a good market will reach a 2%, 3% market share. OREO in a good market can reach 20% market share. Now, of course, Biscoff wants to increase their market share. We want to increase ours. We're not in the same territories. I think Biscoff wants to be globally present. They accept that emerging markets are going to be difficult for them. We are good in emerging markets, so there's certainly an opportunity there. In a country like India, you really want to produce in India. For them to put down manufacturing assets is a real big deal. I think there's a win-win in developing emerging markets with them. On the other side, our chocolate with Biscoff, which is the other example that we have here, is a really exciting chocolate innovation.
If you look at it, we're also doing ice cream together, so that's a much wider collaboration. My personal guess is that between the two companies, the net revenue we will generate five, 10 years down, let's say 10 years down the road, could be easily around $1 billion. That's a completely different collaboration. I think in a world where M&A is more difficult and very expensive, these collaborations are a way to get the excitement without having to go to M&A. Every company feels good with what we're doing. I'm seeing us doing more of these in the future.
Thank you. Luca, maybe we touched on this a little bit earlier. In Europe, obviously, you've put through a significant amount of pricing recently, and at least through the second quarter, right, elasticities remained pretty in line with what your expectations were, if not even a little bit better. You called out obviously hotter than typical temperatures and then hampered chocolate volumes in the region a bit. I guess what makes you confident that it was sort of higher temperatures and not the higher prices, I guess, that resulted in sort of the softer demand? You're talking about elasticity maybe creeping up a little bit of late. What kind of range are we talking about? Originally, we were looking for maybe the 0.4x, 0.5x. Where are we today? How do we think that makes the sort of the full year end up at this stage?
It's clearly very hard to discern what was weather-driven versus what was elasticity-driven. The facts are that as we entered the year and we implemented prices, we were looking at elasticity levels that were around about 0.3 x, quite in line, even better than what we had anticipated. As we said, we did a great job activating Easter. We know that particularly around big seasons like Easter and Christmas, the propensity for consumers to pay is relatively higher. I think as we look at what happened in Q2, the volume declines were a little bit more severe. Obviously, there is a weather component. As we enter Q3, we started looking at elasticities that are around about 0.6x, 0.7x around Europe overall. They are a little bit higher compared to the norm that we had in mind at 0.4 x.
I think the question becomes, as consumers get used to these new price levels and as consumers start engaging even more with back-to-school and Christmas with a category, what we will be looking at is maybe a little bit different. Quite frankly, if cocoa starts coming down, we might have to adjust certain price points. Remember that as a company, we have a chocolate intensity compared to other players in Europe that is a little bit higher. That's the other element that comes into play because some other players that are private have a portfolio that is not as chocolate intense as us. I think it is a little bit too early to draw conclusions. I would say elasticities at this point are higher than what we had anticipated. Again, we believe that going into Christmas, particularly with the engagement with the consumers, we'll have better elasticities than today.
Luca, sticking with you here, you've been pretty consistent in your messaging, right, that you do not view current cocoa levels as sustainable, right, based on what your view of industry supply dynamics looks like. What's your most current view on cocoa fundamentals? Are you taking any specific actions to try and reduce that cocoa risk going forward with alternative sourcing and things of that nature?
Yeah. When you really look closely at the fundamentals of cocoa, what drove the cocoa spikes that we have seen in the last few months, it is actually the fact that the biggest cocoa producer, which is West Africa, declined supply last year quite dramatically. That drove a panic in the market. The market at the beginning didn't believe in certain cocoa level prices. The industry overall went very short in terms of coverage and then p anic really drove prices up. As we stand today, we do pod counts in West Africa fairly consistently every three, four weeks. The latest pod counts point in a direction that supply of cocoa at this point in time with pods still not yet fully matured to be able to say that will translate into real cocoa supply.
The cocoa pod count in Africa is up 7% versus the last five-year norm and so materially higher versus last year crop. We know that the soil moisture is quite good at this point in time. That is essential for the next phase of pod development and cocoa supply. We also know that as we close Q2, grindings, which is cocoa processing and a proxy for cocoa consumption, was down 7%- 8%. That leads us to believe that with a given supply that is up most likely more than 5% compared to the last five-year norm and a demand that is going down by 7%, 8% in the latest reading, we believe there is going to be a surplus in the market. That will determine most likely cocoa prices to come down.
The rest of the world, which is around about 30% of the total cocoa production, keeps on growing in terms of supply at 5% per annum. That is the forecast for next year. You might imagine that at these price levels, there is clearly an element of increasing supply outside of West Africa. That leads us to believe that cocoa prices will have to adjust. Now, to your question, we are very excited about the fact that there are at least two or three opportunities in terms of long-term supply. Clearly, West Africa, with current prices, has an incentive to invest more in cocoa productions, unlike what they have done in the last few years. With agronomical practices, better practices, hopefully, supply will continue to grow. I think the rest of the world clearly is well attracted by the current cocoa levels.
Even if there was a decline in cocoa prices of 30%, the economic around cocoa would be very compelling. Finally, as you said, there is cocoa grown labs, which is fermented cocoa that can be grown in a lab. That is something we are closely monitoring. We made some investments. Hopefully, that will evolve over time and will allow for a more steady, more reliable supply of cocoa over time.
Great. Thank you. Maybe, Dirk, shifting to emerging markets, one of the main things that sets Mondelēz apart, obviously, from many other domestic packaged food companies is not only your exposure to emerging markets, but the scale you've been able to build in many of these markets like Mexico, India, Brazil, China. You've set some pretty lofty targets for growth across these markets. I guess the question is, what will it take to sort of make good on those expectations, both in terms of time and incremental investment? How do you think about prioritizing each of these markets and initiatives such as expanding OREO globally and things of that nature? How are things looking in a lot of these emerging markets more currently?
Yeah. Yeah. If you take a look at the growth of our categories in volume terms for the next 10 years, a very big percentage will come from emerging markets. Of course, there's always a discussion, will that come at the right dollar value, yes or no? If you look over the longer term, even in Latin America, but certainly in places like India and China, that has been a very solid growth. You cannot look at it on a year-by-year basis. If you take, let's say, 10 years, you will see that the benefit is quite big. For us as a company, it is important to be there on the long term because that's where the growth is going to come from. If you then start to look at the markets, there's a few that are very important.
You mentioned the four that at this stage for us are quite important. The name of the game there is to build strong brands. We invest quite heavily in A& C. China has the biggest percentage of A& C of any of our markets in the world. As an example, India is also quite high. We try to build, over time, strong brands. A Cadbury in India or an OREO in China are really powerhouse brands. We try to do the same in Latin America. That certainly is an investment. The other one is driving distribution. We go mostly to market through local distributors. The capital investment is relatively limited for us. It's not our trucks. What we do is Visi coolers in the hot climate for the chocolate. That certainly is a capital investment every year.
I would say that is a regional capital investment that we have to make. There is a limit to the speed of how fast you can do that. You need to stay on top of things. You go city by city. You need to monitor very carefully. Is it paying back? Is it not paying back? You can't, for instance, in China, we're at the moment in 3 million or 6 million stores. We cannot say, "Okay, in one year, we're going to add another 3 million stores." That would be not. You have to go at a certain speed. The speed at the moment is somewhere, for India and for China, around 100,000 stores per year. That is the way. We still have a runway, quite a long runway. The second name of the game is not only more stores. It's more items per store.
That's the second area of growth. We look at the number of SKUs available on average in a store in a country. If you look at the brand building and the distribution building, the two avenues of growth for us in these markets, we should be close to double digit. We get to high single digit usually, sometimes double digit. Of course, in the current circumstance, that's a bit slower, also in China and in India and also in Mexico. Overall, I would say the idea of what I just explained, once the consumer will feel a little bit better, we think we will get back to that algorithm for those countries.
What are the current trends, as you see them, in key emerging markets at this point?
Yeah. Quickly, China, consumer is still very sort of very careful. We see them diminishing their consumption through the fact that we are doing quite well in our categories, gaining market share. The fact that we're building distribution, we're seeing positive growth in China. India, for us, the consumer clearly was slowing down, particularly in a category like biscuits, which is a very basic category in India. We saw a diminishing of the consumption of an OREO, which is a premium. Chocolate continued reasonably well, I would say, despite the fact that we increased some prices. Overall, we saw a slowdown in India. We're still solid single-digit growth. Brazil is doing quite well. We will have good single-digit growth this year in Brazil. We're developing well. In Mexico, we see a slowdown in the consumer offtake in general. Since we've had two years that we were underperforming, we will look good because we lapped something that was not so great yet.
Got it, basically. Perfect. Thank you. Dirk, historically, Mondelēz has chosen to invest some of the upside, right, in order to maintain the solid top-line volume momentum and keep the flywheel going, which sort of sets you apart from a lot of your peers. That strategy has worked well. Obviously, we're in a bit of an anomalous situation when thinking about next year, just given the magnitude of cocoa inflation being absorbed this year. I guess should investors expect or still expect Mondelēz to sort of adhere to this reinvestment strategy going forward, even if there's, let's say, potential for more upside, should cocoa moderate significantly, just given how much justified pricing has been needed really the past couple of years? Are there a few areas where you would likely reinvest for 2026, if that were the case?
Yeah. Our algorithm has always been that we look at gross profit dollars as the key driver of our performance. The thinking has always been we drive gross profit dollar growth. We have had that conversation many times. We're not obsessed by the percentage. The percentage needs to be healthy, but we're not managing towards a percentage, the business. What we always did in the last seven, eight years was the gross profit dollars go up. The difference that we get extra every year, about half of it flows to the bottom line, about half gets reinvested. This year is an abnormal year. The gross profit dollars go down because of the issue with the cocoa prices. We did the same. We reduced our A & C largely in non-working media, and we took a hit on our bottom line.
For next year, I'm expecting our gross profit to start increasing again. We would normally do the same and reinvest, but also flow to the bottom line. At a certain stage, cocoa could come down quite a bit, let's say, and then it could be in those years that we decide that we're not going to do the rough 50/50, but that we are going to flow more to the bottom line. Our first concern is, do we get a return on the investment? Do we drive our categories? Do we drive our gross profit dollars? There could be a moment that we say that's not going to be giving us the right return. It's better to put it in the bottom line. In general, I think next year we're aiming for a non-algorithm year, which is high single-digit EPS growth. After that, I'm expecting at a certain year that cocoa really will come down. That might be the year that we decide to put more.
Got it. Helpful. Luca, maybe turning to capital allocation and M&A, there obviously is some speculation earlier in the year about your potential interest in another large U.S. chocolate player. You've kind of put those rumors to rest since. Maybe you can remind investors what your strategy around M&A looks like, whether it's changed at all in the context of the current environment where there's a lot of news, and how you think about M&A versus share buybacks as well.
We continue to be very disciplined in terms of assessing potential targets out there. We said it many times. Few assets came our way, and we passed on them because the value proposition for us wasn't right. As we put together business propositions, we are fairly thorough. We have an M&A department that conducts very thorough due diligence, so we know pretty much what are the issues and the opportunities as we go into any type of M&A. At this point in time, I wouldn't rule anything out.
Quite frankly, if you ask me, it is very likely that if we do M&A, it is more on the bottom areas, assets that have a size of $500 million, $1 billion, $2 billion max, I would say, assets that play in the categories we like: chocolate, biscuits, and importantly, baked snacks, whether it is cakes and pastries, fresh or non-fresh, I would say, and assets in some cases that are out of these categories but would give us the opportunity, like Ricolino in Mexico, to really establish ourselves as a key player in snacking through our core brands like OREO or chocolate brands like Milka and Cadbury, in case, again, the asset provides distribution opportunity. That's really where we are: very disciplined, strategically sound assets, assets that are, I would say, $500 million- $1 billion in general in terms of revenue.
When you look at share buybacks, it is undoubtedly that we have been quite pragmatic in the way we have done share buybacks in the last few years. Clearly, with cost of capital going up, there are different trade-offs, which makes us be a little bit more cautious in terms of share buybacks. We have done share buybacks this year, I think, at very compelling prices. Again, should cocoa come down, I think we will look at an earnings power that is materially higher. If we compound that earning power with fewer stocks, fewer shares being out there, obviously, the earnings power will be even further amplified. At this point in time, we are more pragmatic in terms of share buybacks. Obviously, between share buybacks and M&A, it seems to us at this point in time that share buybacks is a more compelling opportunity given the current stock price.
Great. Thanks for that. I think we've got time for one more before we head to the breakout. Maybe, Dirk, one area that you've been much more vocal about of late has been the opportunity you believe you still have in the growing and still very fragmented cakes and pastries space. I think you've talked about you're currently the third largest global player with only about a 4% share. You recently acquired Evirth in China, which operates in this space. If we were to look five to 10 years down the road, what do you expect the cakes and pastries category to look like versus where it is today? How do you see Mondelēz 's position within that evolving?
Yeah. Cakes and pastries at the moment is about a $95 billion global category, so not too far away from the size of the biscuits category. We expect about a 4% growth of that revenue, so probably going to be about $125 billion by 2030. It's a very fragmented category, which has different segments in there. We think there is really an opportunity to offer higher quality products with known brands. That's what we believe is our opportunity. We've been trying to position ourselves in the cakes and pastries category in a number of ways. There's one segment in cakes and pastries, which is the fresh part in store. That's where Give & Go comes in play, but also Evirth. That's an experience for a consumer where they take it home and then consume it. It's delivered frozen into the store.
We think you can have high-quality products where the consumer is prepared per kilo to pay a very nice price. For them, it's a different experience from the packaged cakes and pastries. That's one segment we see ourselves developing in globally. The other one, I think, is more sophisticated packaged products like the OREO cakes that we have at the moment in China and in the U.S., which I think stand above what is generally available in the market. We see, for instance, the soft cake version of OREO stand very well next to the biscuit version globally. That's a second area where we're trying to develop in. The third one is what we call chocobakery, where we use our chocolate brands to bring the chocolate experience into the cakes and pastries. We do it in biscuits also. We believe there's a huge opportunity.
The biggest example of those are the Milka products that we have in Europe, the soft cake Milka products. Recently, with the acquisition of Chipita, we now have Milka croissant that is being offered. Those, I would say, are the three big segments that we believe in cakes and pastries. We don't try to be in all segments for everybody. We try to be in high quality, high net revenue per kilo products and bring our own brands into that market.
Super. All right. Very helpful. We covered a lot of ground. I really appreciate you both being here. Please join us in the breakout, and please join me in thanking Dirk and Luca for being here.
Thank you.