MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2021

Aug 5, 2021

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the MFA Financial second quarter 2021 conference call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given to you at that time. If you need assistance during the call, press star and then zero, and an operator will assist you offline. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Hal Schwartz. Please go ahead.

Hal Schwartz
General Counsel, MFA Financial

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. The information discussed on this conference call today may contain or refer to forward-looking statements regarding MFA Financial, Inc., which reflect management's beliefs, expectations, and assumptions as to MFA's future performance and operations. When used, statements that are not historical in nature, including those containing words such as will, believe, expect, anticipate, estimate, should, could, would, or similar expressions, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made. These types of statements are subject to various known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors, including those described in MFA's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020, and other reports that it may file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

These risks, uncertainties, and other factors could cause MFA's actual results to differ materially from those projected, expressed, or implied in any forward-looking statements it makes. For additional information regarding MFA's use of forward-looking statements, please see the relevant disclosure in the press release announcing MFA's second quarter 2021 financial results. Thank you for your time. I would now like to turn this call over to MFA's CEO and President, Craig Knutson.

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

Thank you, Hal. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you for your interest in and welcome you to MFA Financial's second quarter 2021 financial results webcast. Also with me today are Steve Yarad, our CFO, Gudmundur Kristjansson and Bryan Wulfsohn, our Co-Chief Investment Officers, and other members of senior management. The second quarter of 2021 was a difficult period for mortgage investors, particularly for those invested in agencies. Strong economic data and early Fed chatter about tapering pushed mortgage spreads wider. A rally in rates coupled with a flattening curve caused prepayment levels to remain elevated. While never completely immune to general mortgage market trends, MFA's investment strategy intentionally mitigates many of these interest rate risks.

Through asset selection that emphasizes credit versus interest rate sensitivity and shorter duration assets that again limit interest rate risk, our portfolio performed quite well during the second quarter of 2021, and our book value was stable. On the credit side, continued very strong housing trends have bolstered the value of the underlying assets securing the mortgages that we own, thus lowering LTVs. Robust housing prices have also created a strong tailwind for delinquent mortgages and REO properties as these trends lead to improved resolutions and outcomes. MFA's tireless efforts to find attractive new investments were also rewarded in the second quarter as our asset acquisitions exceeded runoff for the first time since late 2019. This progress is due to continued growth from many of our origination partners, as well as our ability to analyze and source new investment opportunities.

With financial markets awash in liquidity, sourcing attractive investment opportunities has been very challenging this year, but we are starting to fire on all cylinders, and we feel good about our continued growth prospects. Please turn to page four. We reported GAAP earnings of $0.13 per share for the second quarter, largely driven by a solid increase in net interest income. Contributions from credit loss reserve reversals were more modest this quarter versus Q1, $8.8 million versus $22.8 million, as were unrealized gains on fair value loans, $6 million in Q2 versus $31 million in Q1. GAAP book value was $4.65, up $0.02 from March 31, and economic book value was $5.12, up $0.03 from March 31. Economic return, both GAAP and economic, for the second quarter was 2.6%, and this follows economic returns in Q1 of 3.6% and 5% respectively.

Our leverage ticked up slightly over the quarter to 1.8 : 1 versus 1.6: 1, and we paid a $0.10 dividend to shareholders on July 30, which was a 33% increase from the dividend paid in April. Please turn to page five. Digging into the numbers a little more, our efforts to lower interest expenses through securitizations had a visible impact on our second quarter earnings as interest expense declined by $4,500,000 or 15% from the first quarter. The larger of the two securitizations executed in the second quarter had limited impact on the full quarter because it priced on June 10th. Net interest income for the second quarter increased by $8 million or 16% versus the prior quarter. We continue to make excellent progress in liquidating REO properties as we capitalize on strong housing trends.

For borrowers who are still negatively impacted by COVID, we've been able to offer modifications and/or repayment plans to allow them to stay in their homes, restore their payment status to current, and retain the equity in their homes. Please turn to page six. As previously announced, we completed the acquisition of Lima One on July 1st, and we're very excited to welcome the Lima One team to the MFA family. We expect that this transaction will significantly increase our purchase of Business Purpose Loans. By providing a strong capital base and expertise in securitization, we will also further enhance Lima One's already existing profitability and growth potential. Please turn to page seven. Again, continuing the theme of aggressively taking advantage of available market opportunities, we executed two additional securitizations on over $850 million of UPB at attractive levels in the second quarter.

As you can see on this page, triple A yields on bonds sold for the non-QM 1 deal was 112 basis points and 110 basis points on the RPL one deal, and the blended cost of debt for both deals was in the 130s. We expect to complete at least two additional securitizations in the third quarter. Please turn to page eight. We illustrate our investment portfolio and summarize our asset-backed financing on this slide. Our investment portfolio grew by $300 million in the second quarter, which is a milestone of sorts, as it is the first quarter in the last six quarters that our portfolio has increased. New loan acquisitions in the second quarter were $857 million, which is more than two times the last week quarters combined.

The composition of our portfolio has not changed materially since March 31st, other than for the addition in Q2 of agency eligible investor loans, which Brian will discuss shortly. On the financing side, you can see that two-thirds of our asset-backed financing is non-mark-to-market, with over 70% of the non-mark-to-market financing in the form of securitization, as we continue to term out and reduce the cost of non-mark-to-market debt. I will now turn the call over to Steve Yarad to discuss additional details of our financial results.

Steve Yarad
CFO, MFA Financial

Thanks, Craig. Please turn to slide nine for an overview of our second quarter 2021 financial results. As Craig has already noted, MFA delivered solid results for the second quarter, highlighted by higher net interest income on our residential whole loan investments. Before diving into the details, I want to point out two important changes that impact the way our results are presented this quarter. Firstly, we changed the way we present interest income on residential whole loans on which we have elected the fair value option at acquisition. Prior to this quarter, we presented the coupon payments received along with non-interest income from fair value loans in other income on our income statement. We now present interest income on loans accounted for at fair value as part of net interest income, while non-interest income, which primarily reflects market value changes, continues to be presented in other income.

Prior period comparative amounts for interest income and net interest income discussed on this call, as well as in our press release issued this morning in 10-Q, which we expect to file later today, are reclassified to conform to this new presentation approach. Secondly, as we noted in our last earnings call, starting this quarter, we decided to elect the fair value option for all acquisitions of purchase performing loans. This includes acquisitions of non-QM, fix and flip, single family rental, and agency eligible investor loans. Purchase performing loans acquired prior to this quarter continue to be accounted for at carrying value, so we will continue to present the economic book value metric to capture the impact of fair value changes for these loans. We believe these changes in accounting method and presentation will serve to simplify the reporting of our results over time.

Further, we can now present interest yield and net interest spread information for all loans in our portfolio, which should make our results easier to review and more comparable to our peers. In addition, we believe that using fair value accounting is the best way to properly capture the impact of Lima One's origination and servicing activities for loans originated by Lima and held on MFA's consolidated balance sheet. Turning now to the detail of our Q2 2021 results. Net income to common shareholders was $58.5 million or $0.13 per share. The key items impacting our results are as follows. Net interest income of $59 million was $8 million or 16% higher sequentially. As Craig also noted, interest expense again declined primarily due to the ongoing efforts to use securitization and other forms of more durable and lower cost financing.

Interest income on our loan portfolio was also approximately $5 million higher, primarily driven by higher prepayments and lower delinquency levels on purchased credit deteriorated and purchased non-performing loans. Similarly to the prior quarter, interest income from our securities investments included approximately $8 million of accretion on an MSR term note investment that was redeemed at par, but that we had taken an impairment charge on in Q1 of 2020. Our net interest spread increased to an impressive 3.02% this quarter. While additional securitizations will continue to meaningfully benefit funding costs, overall spread levels should moderate in future periods as prepayment speeds decline in line with seasonal factors. We reduced our overall CECL allowance on carrying value loans to $54.3 million, reflecting lower loan balances and adjustments to estimated levels of future unemployment and home price appreciation used in our credit loss modeling.

This reversal and other net adjustments to our CECL reserves positively impacted net income for the quarter by $8.9 million. After the significant increase in CECL reserves taken in Q1 2020, when uncertainty related to COVID-19 economic impacts were at their highest, we have reduced our CECL reserves by approximately $90 million in the subsequent five quarters. Actual charge-off experience continues to remain very modest, with approximately $1.6 million of net charge-offs taken in the six-month period into June 30, 2021. Pricing on loans held at fair value continues to be firm. Net gains of $6 million were recorded, primarily reflecting the impact of market value changes. Finally, our operating and other expenses were $22.8 million for the quarter, in line with the previous quarter. With that, I will now turn the call over to Bryan Wulfsohn.

Bryan Wulfsohn
Senior VP and Co-Chief Investment Officer, MFA Financial

Thank you, Steve. Turning to page 10. Housing has continued to push higher over the quarter. The pace of annual home price increases have reached levels not seen in over 40 years. Historically low rates, demographic trends, and a severe lack of supply have all contributed to the rise in prices. The unemployment rate has broken through 6% and is expected to continue to move lower with the economy reopening. All of these factors, combined with monetary and fiscal support, have played a part in keeping mortgage credit performance strong and bode well for the continued credit performance in the near term. Turning to page 11. Non-QM origination volume increased over the quarter as rates offered to borrowers have been dropping. We purchased over $370 million over the second quarter, which is an increase of 85% over the previous quarter.

Prepayment speeds increased over the quarter with a drop in rates to non-QM borrowers. The three-month average CPR for the portfolio was 40. We executed on a securitization in the second quarter, bringing the total amount of collateral securitized to approximately $1.75 billion. We expect to bring another securitization of non-QM loans in the third quarter. These securitizations have lowered our financing costs and at the same time have provided additional stability to our borrowings. Securitization, combined with non-mark-to-market term facility, has resulted in over 70% of our non-QM portfolio to be financed with non-mark-to-market leverage. We expect to continue to be a programmatic issuer of securitizations as it is currently the most efficient form of financing for our portfolio. Turning to page 12. COVID impacted our borrowers significantly, as many of our borrowers are owners of small businesses that were affected by shutdowns across the country.

We instituted a deferral program at the onset of the pandemic in an effort to help our borrowers manage through the crisis. Through our servicers, we granted almost 32% of the portfolio temporary payment relief, which we believe helped put our borrowers in a better position for long-term payment performance. Subsequent to June 2020, we reverted to a forbearance program instead of a deferral as the economy opened up. The forbearance program instituted is largely now determined by state guidelines. In the second quarter, we saw serious delinquency rates improve by 0.1% and 30-day delinquencies drop by 1.4%. In addition, almost 40% of those delinquent loans made a payment in June. Many delinquent borrowers are on repayment plans, which will cause them to cure their delinquency status over the next 6-12 months.

As the economic recovery continues, the portfolio's credit performance should continue to improve. Our strategy of targeting lower LTV loans should mitigate losses under a scenario with elevated delinquencies. In many cases, borrowers which no longer have the ability to afford their debt service will sell their home in order to get the return of their equity. Turning to page 13. Updated letter agreements between the Treasury and the GSEs relating to the 2008 Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement restricted the percentage of loans purchased by the GSEs backed by investor properties and second homes to 7%. This change created a dislocation in the marketplace, requiring originators to look for alternative outlets for their loans backed by investor properties. We were able to source over $300 million of this product in the second quarter from our existing originator relationships at attractive prices.

We expect to execute on our first securitization of this collateral in the third quarter, with more to follow should the opportunity persist. This is another example of our ability to adapt to an ever-changing environment and a testament to our strong originator relationships in a competitive market environment. Turning to page 14. Our RPL portfolio of $1 billion has been impacted by the pandemic but continues to perform well. 81% of our portfolio remains less than 60 days delinquent. Although the percentage of the portfolio 60 days of delinquent in status was 26%, a quarter of those borrowers continue to make payments. Prepayment speeds in the second quarter moderated a bit, but continue to be elevated at a three-month CPR of 15 as mortgage rates continue to be historically low and more borrowers gain equity with the increase of home prices.

While 30% of our RPL borrowers were impacted by COVID, we have worked with our servicers to provide assistance to borrowers and have seen improvement in delinquency levels over the quarter. Turning to page 15. Our asset management team continues to push performance of our NPL portfolio. The team has worked in concert with our servicing partners to maximize outcomes on our portfolio. This page shows the outcomes for loans that were purchased prior to the year ended 2019. 38% of loans that were delinquent at purchase are now either performing or paid in full. 47% have either liquidated or are REO to be liquidated. Our sales of REO properties have continued at an accelerated pace at advantageous prices. We have been able to cut the REO portfolio in half since the pandemic began. 15% are still in non-performing status.

Our modifications have been effective, as almost three-quarters are either performing or paid in full. We are pleased with these results as they continue to outperform our assumptions at the time of purchase. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Gudmundur to walk you through our business purpose loans.

Gudmundur Kristjansson
Senior VP and Co-Chief Investment Officer, MFA Financial

Thanks, Bryan. Turning to page 16. We closed the previously announced acquisition of Lima One on July 1st. We're very excited about this transaction, and I would like to give a shout-out to the entire MFA and Lima One teams that worked diligently and collaboratively towards closing this transaction quickly. Lima One is a leading nationwide originator of business purpose loans, or BPLs, with a strong brand recognition in the BPL borrower community. They serve the needs of short and long-term borrowing strategies in the BPL space by offering a diverse set of products, including fix and flip and new construction loans, longer term rental loans, and small balance multifamily value add and bridge loans. Lima has originated over $3 billion since inception and has shown that they can reliably originate over $1 billion annually with a clear path to grow significantly beyond that.

The acquisition enhances our position as a significant capital provider to the BPL space, which we believe offers some of the most attractive opportunities to deploy capital in the residential mortgage space. This acquisition will provide MFA a reliable access to high-quality, high-yielding assets that are difficult to source in the marketplace. At closing of the acquisition, we added $152 million of business purpose loans to our balance sheet. The integration of Lima One into the MFA family has been smooth and efficient. The working relationship we have built over the last four years across our organizations has been a tremendous asset in the integration and allowed Lima One to continue to originate high-quality loans and service customers without any issues. One of the key initiatives has been to quickly use MFA's balance sheet and reputation to substantially improve the financing of Lima's assets and origination going forward.

We've already refinanced expensive financing through BPL securitization and subordinate debt that Lima needed to put in place during 2020, which will save over 500 basis points in financing costs over time. We are in the process of adding additional financing lines to meet the expected growth of the business going forward. Turn to page 17, where we will discuss the fix and flip portfolio. Our portfolio declined modestly by about $32 million in the second quarter as principal pay-downs continued to exceed loan acquisitions. Limited acquisitions last year led to our current seasoned loan portfolio, where we see completed projects getting sold quickly into a strong housing market, leading to high repayment rates. We expect this trend to change going forward as purchase activity has picked up meaningfully.

Second quarter loan acquisitions more than doubled from the first quarter as we acquired $68 million in UPB and $118 million in max loan amount in the quarter. As a reminder, fix and flip loans finance the acquisition, rehabilitation, and construction of homes. Typically, a certain amount of the loan is held back in the form of a construction holdback, which explains the difference between UPB on day one and the max loan amount, which represents the fully funded loan at the completion of projects. Third quarter acquisitions are on track to increase even further as we've already added in excess of $160 million max loan amount of fix and flip loans in July. With the acquisition of Lima as well as other seller relationships, we expect purchase activity to be strong going forward and expect the fix and flip portfolio to grow again in the third quarter.

The fix and flip portfolio delivered strong income in the second quarter with average portfolio yields of approximately 6.4% in the quarter. The housing market continues to be extremely strong, with record low mortgage rates and low levels of inventory supporting annual home price appreciation in excess of 15%. In addition, we continue to see unemployment declining and overall economic activity improving across the country. The combination of these positive economic fundamentals, low initial LTVs on our loans, and the efforts of our experienced asset management team continues to lead to acceptable outcomes on our delinquent loans. 60+ day delinquent loans continue to decline and dropped $29 million- $120 million at the end of the second quarter. What is really encouraging is that we continue to see a solid amount of loans pay off in full out of 60+.

When loans pay off in full from serious delinquency, we often collect default interest, extension fees, and other fees at payoff. For loans where there is meaningful equity in the property, these can add up. Since inception, we have collected approximately $4.8 million in these types of fees across our fix and flip portfolio. 60+ day delinquency as a percentage of UPB declined 4% - 28% and remains elevated, but keep in mind that we have purchased over $2.1 billion of fix and flip loans and had over $1.5 billion pay off in full.

Due to the short-term nature of fix and flip loans, with expected payoff in about 6 -1 2 months, delinquent loans can be outstanding for longer than performing loans due to the time it takes to complete foreclosure. As our purchase activity was limited last year and performing loans paid off, the delinquency percentage increased as one would naturally expect as our portfolios rank. As we now grow our portfolio again and continue to have positive outcomes on seriously delinquent loans, we expect both the dollar amount as well as percentage delinquency to continue to decline going forward. So far in the third quarter, we've continued to see positive delinquency trends. Finally, the fix and flip loan reserves continued to trend down in the second quarter, declining by $2.1 million, primarily due to improved economic expectations and a strong housing market. Turning to page 18.

Our single-family rental loan portfolio continues to deliver attractive yields and strong credit performance. The portfolio yield has remained steady in the mid to high 5% range post-COVID and was 5.76% in the second quarter. Underlying credit trends remain solid and 60+ day delinquency declined 90 basis points to 4.9% at the end of the second quarter. Purchase activity increased significantly from the first quarter as we purchased $102 million of single-family rental loans in the second quarter and grew the single-family rental portfolio for the second quarter in a row. The pace of acquisitions has continued to accelerate into the third quarter, and we have already added approximately $100 million in the month of July.

The acquisition of Lima One Capital will significantly bolster our ability to source single-family rental loans, and we believe that we will be able to continue to grow our acquisition volume as well as our single-family rental portfolio in the near future. Over two-thirds of our single-family rental portfolio is financed with non-mark-to-market financing and over 15% through securitizations. We priced our first single-family rental securitization in the first quarter of 2021, where the weighted average coupon of bonds sold was only 106 basis points. Going forward, we expect to programmatically execute single-family rental securitizations to finance our rental loans with the next deal expected in the fourth quarter. With that, I will turn the call over to Craig for some final comments.

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

Thank you, Gudmundur. We are pleased with the results of the second quarter of 2021 and even more excited about the future at MFA. Our investment initiatives are picking up steam as our asset acquisitions outpace runoff for the first time since late 2019. We're continuing to execute our strategic plan to lower and term out borrowing costs, and we're beginning to see the results of this activity in our income statement. The strength of the housing industry has obvious positive implications for our mortgage credit investments. Our acquisition of Lima One is an important initiative that will enhance our ability to deploy future capital in the BPL sector and grow our future earnings power. Operator, please open up the line for questions.

Operator

Certainly, ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press one and then zero on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a tone acknowledging that you have been placed in queue. You may remove yourself from queue by pressing the same one zero command. Once again, one and then zero for your questions or comments. We will go to the line of Bose George with KBW, and your line is open.

Mike Smith
Analyst, KBW

Hey, everyone. This is actually Mike Smith on for Bose. A couple of questions on Lima One. Was there any goodwill created as a result of the transaction?

Steve Yarad
CFO, MFA Financial

Hi, Mike. This is Steve Yarad. The transaction didn't close until July 1st, so there will be some goodwill with the transaction. We're still working through the purchase price allocations and some other items of that nature. We'll discuss that more fully on our next earnings call. Lima One's results aren't consolidated into MFA results until the third quarter. They're not consolidated as of June thirtieth.

Mike Smith
Analyst, KBW

Okay, great. That's helpful. Last quarter you guided to, I think it was $0.08-$0.12 of accretion from the transaction in 2021. I was just wondering, is that still the case for 2021? How are you thinking about accretion into 2022?

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

I think that accretion number that we talked about was an estimate for a 12-month period, not for the calendar year of 2021. Again, it's very early to tell and a lot of things are changing, but I have no reason to think that that's inaccurate or that that's changed materially since we talked on the last call.

Mike Smith
Analyst, KBW

Okay, great. That's helpful. One thing we've heard a lot is just the competition returning to the BPL space. I was just wondering if you could talk through some of the economics on the loans that you purchased from Lima One versus other originators and just how that looks?

Gudmundur Kristjansson
Senior VP and Co-Chief Investment Officer, MFA Financial

Yeah, that's a great question. This is Gudmundur. I'll take it. Yeah, the space has gotten more attention, certainly because rates are low and there is a decent amount of competition to acquire assets in general. That's why we believe it is important and was one of the reasons going into the acquisitions to have solid control over the sourcing of the assets. By acquiring Lima One, we have acquired one of the leading originator in the space. One has an established relationships with various fix and flip investors, as well as has shown the track record to originate in excess of $1 billion of loans a year.

From that perspective, we feel that we have taken pole position in the ability to source the assets relative to some other people who have to go out and identify various sellers and find multiple sellers to acquire loans. I think that is an important distinction that we have now achieved through the acquisition of Lima One. In terms of the economics, look, the loans that Lima originates, we put them on our balance sheet at cost. The question is, what does that mean? Usually on the BPL side, the fix and flip side, you're acquiring loans at a net coupon, and the originator retains anywhere from 100 basis points up to 200 basis points on the servicing spread. If an originator is creating a loan with an 8% coupon, an investor would acquire it at a pass-through rate of a 6%.

For us, we put the full 8% coupon on our balance sheet. From that perspective, we reap the benefit from the full coupon of the loan, which is obviously beneficial. On the single-family rental side, those loans trade at a premium in the marketplace. Again, we'll put those loans on at cost, which probably is a benefit of up to 100 basis points-150 basis points in terms of difference in terms of yield to our balance sheet. I hope that answers some of your questions. I guess if I missed one, just feel free to follow up.

Mike Smith
Analyst, KBW

No, that's very helpful. Thanks. Just one more from me. Can you provide an update on how book value has trended since quarter end?

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

We don't really have marks yet for month-end July, but I have no reason to think that book value has changed appreciably since June 30.

Mike Smith
Analyst, KBW

Great. Thanks for taking the questions.

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. Next, we will go to the line of Doug Harter with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

John Kolachowski
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Excuse me, I was on mute there. This is John Kolachowski on for Doug Harter. Just a few questions. First, you discussed the securitizations in the quarter, and I believe you mentioned that you foresee two in 3Q, and I believe the blended cost was somewhere in the range. What was it? 130 basis points, I think, on the two that you did this quarter. Is that correct?

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

It was in the 130s. Yeah.

John Kolachowski
Analyst, Credit Suisse

In the 130s. Okay. Thank you. If you could just give us some color kind of going forward as to what you think sort of what you'll see blended or the sizing of the securitizations in 3Q and going forward, and maybe if you think you can continue to get your cost of funds down with this strategy, or if you're sort of flooring out.

Bryan Wulfsohn
Senior VP and Co-Chief Investment Officer, MFA Financial

Yeah. Securitization spreads have come in a bit. Incrementally, we'll see better funding costs. As we continue to move away from some of our higher cost funding to lower cost funding, it won't be as dramatic as it has been in the past, but there still is room for improvement.

John Kolachowski
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay, great. Now you just see that for, I guess, maybe the next few quarters and at some point it's going to start to floor out here, or do you see it going on 12 months or farther than that?

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

Well, it's really a function of future acquisitions, right?

John Kolachowski
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay.

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

As acquisitions continue to grow, you should expect that we'll continue to securitize.

John Kolachowski
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. Great. Second question is, exciting with the additions surpassing runoff this quarter, what do you think your capacity for growth is sort of going forward here? Do you see that being the trend kind of on a go-forward basis, and sort of could you size that?

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

At this point, it's too early to try to size that. I think I said in my prepared remarks that we feel pretty good about our future growth prospects. It's been a difficult year to source attractive investments because nothing is really cheap, and there's a lot of money chasing everything out there. I think we worked really hard this year on existing originator relationships, on establishing some new ones, and it takes time, but I think you saw a pretty significant impact in the second quarter, and that won't go away. In terms of absolute numbers, it's impossible to predict what they'll be. Like I said, we feel pretty good.

John Kolachowski
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. And for any other questions or comments, press one and then zero. And we will go to the line of Eric Hagen with BTIG.

Eric Hagen
Analyst, BTIG

Hi. Good. Thanks. Good morning. Hope you guys are well. Want to hear about how you're thinking about risk management in the non-QM portfolio and the outlook for credit losses, maybe more generally. Obviously, the paydowns have been faster too since rates are low and HPA is strong. I'm curious what it says about the borrowers that haven't been able to refi, including the portion which are still classified as seriously delinquent and what the resolution looks like for those folks.

Bryan Wulfsohn
Senior VP and Co-Chief Investment Officer, MFA Financial

Sure. Thanks, Eric. When we looked at the portfolio and you said 60+ is around seven and change percent. 40% of those borrowers are making payments. When we offered up either forbearance or deferrals and borrowers are sort of still struggling coming out of the pandemic, instead of them.

Themselves current by making one lump sum payment, we put them on repayment plans. What that does is, those borrowers really will become current over the next 6 -1 2 months as they follow through on their repayment plan. It takes some time. Their delinquency status doesn't really catch up until the end of that plan. We're showing a higher level of delinquency now, but in actuality, when you think about what's paying versus what's not paying, it's something like 3%-4% that's not paying.

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

Eric, I would also point out on page 11, we show that the weighted average LTV of that non-QM portfolio is 63.6%. Given what housing prices have done, obviously the mark-to-market LTV is probably considerably lower at this point. I think that's probably the best risk mitigate right there is the LTV. As Bryan says, if we put borrowers on repayment plans and it takes 12 months for them to catch up, they're going to show as delinquent until they've completely caught up.

Eric Hagen
Analyst, BTIG

Great. Thanks, guys. A follow-up on Lima One. I think you guys said last quarter, maybe you reiterated it today, you expect around $1 billion to be onboarded over the next year, and you'd maybe look to capitalize that with around $200 million-$300 million. I'm curious if your expectations there have changed. I think you also noted that there's some new financing lines that you were looking into. I'm so curious what the structure and cost of that funding is expected to look like.

Gudmundur Kristjansson
Senior VP and Co-Chief Investment Officer, MFA Financial

Yeah, no, that's the right expectation. That hasn't changed. I think Lima, as Craig said in his comments, they're on track to do $1.3 billion this year. As you think of an annual run rate, they certainly have the capacity to do $1.3 billion, and we think they're very well set up to grow beyond that, so we're kind of excited about that. That expectation has not changed. Look, I think we're working on various financing initiatives, and as you also know, we've securitized the single-family rental loans earlier this year. That type of origination that comes out of Lima is right to roll into a securitization. We expect to do another one of those in the fourth quarter of this year.

As it relates to the fix and flip loans, I think what will happen over time is that we'll have a combination of warehouse financing, which we already have in place, as well as look into and look to issue our own revolving securitization structure to finance some of those assets. That's where some of the synergies comes in, where MFA can use our expertise in the capital markets to more efficiently finance the fix and flip loans over time. Yeah. As it relates to cost, financing costs you could broadly say on fix and flip loans are probably anywhere from mid to high 2% to low 3%, depending on if you're on a warehouse line or you do a securitization. That kind of seems to be what we're seeing.

Eric Hagen
Analyst, BTIG

Good to hear that you're looking into a securitization for those loans. One more from me. I guess I'm surprised to see a big delinquent pipeline for the fix and flip simply because HPA has just been so strong and feels like there's this clear incentive for investors to get their property on the market. I'm just hoping for some color around potentially clearing that pipeline in order to be able to focus really on the product that's coming in from Lima One going forward.

Gudmundur Kristjansson
Senior VP and Co-Chief Investment Officer, MFA Financial

Sure. Yeah. As I said in my prepared remarks, some of these things relate to the imbalance or difference between the fact that delinquent loans opposite to 30-year mortgages is outstanding longer in the fix and flip space as opposed to performing loans. Performing loans on average have a lifespan of 6-12 months. Delinquent loans that you are carrying today, they may actually be from 2018 or 2019 vintages, as opposed to most of the performing loans have already paid off. As our purchase activity was somewhat limited last year, and we had sizable prepayments in the portfolio over the last 9-12 months, the percentage has increased simply because our portfolio is smaller. More importantly, over the last 6-9 months, we have seen in each quarter the delinquencies decline.

In fact, the 60 + day UPB has come down by over $60 million over the last three quarters. What we're really seeing is that there were some delays in getting to properties because of foreclosure moratorium and delays last year. On the resolutions that we have had both payoffs out of 60 +, and if I remember correctly, I think $25 million paid off in full out of 60 + in the last quarter. Those would be owners that said, "Oh, okay, I have so much equity in the property, I need to figure out how to get it." The other is the REO that we have foreclosed on and then liquidated, our losses to principal have been de minimis. From that perspective, we feel pretty positive on our progress. We continue to reduce that population over time with really positive outcomes.

Again, the key is home prices, as Craig pointed out, are rising at over 15% annually. From that perspective, it supports obviously all collateral in terms of the base value.

Eric Hagen
Analyst, BTIG

You bet. Thank you. Thanks for the update.

Operator

Does that conclude your conference, Eric? Your questions, Eric?

Eric Hagen
Analyst, BTIG

Yeah.

Okay.

Operator

Okay. Thank you very much.

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

I'd like to thank everyone. Questions, operator?

Operator

I'm sorry. If there are questions, you can hit one zero. At this time, I'm showing no further questions in queue. Please continue.

Craig Knutson
CEO and President, MFA Financial

Okay. Thank you. I want to thank everyone for your interest in MFA Financial, and we look forward to our next update when we announce third quarter results in November.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Executive Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.