McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Jan 28, 2020

Kasey Jenkins
VP of Investor Relations, McCormick & Company

Good morning. This is Kasey Jenkins, Vice President of McCormick & Company Investor Relations. Thank you for joining today's Q4 earnings call. To accompany this call, we've posted a set of slides at ir.mccormick.com. Currently, all participants are in a listen only mode. Following our remarks, we will begin a question and answer session. If you need to reach the operator at any time during the call, please press star zero. We'll begin with remarks from Lawrence Kurzius, Chairman, President, and CEO, and Michael Smith, Executive Vice President and CFO. During our remarks, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

These include information and constant currency as well as adjusted operating income, adjusted income tax rate, and adjusted earnings per share that exclude the impact of special charges as well as the net non-recurring income tax benefits associated with the December 2017 U.S. tax reform legislation and for 2018, transaction and integration expenses related to the acquisition of our Frank's and French's brand. Reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release and slides. In our comments, certain percentages are rounded. Please refer to our presentation, which includes the complete information. As a reminder, today's presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or other factors.

As seen on slide 2, our forward-looking statement also provides information on risk factors that could affect our financial results. It is now my pleasure to turn the discussion over to Lawrence.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Thank you, Kasey. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Starting on slide 4, our Q4 results completed a year of solid financial performance. We drove solid sales, adjusted operating income, and adjusted EPS growth, as well as operating margin expansion while continuing to make targeted investments and fuel future growth. We delivered substantial cost savings at our eighth consecutive year of record cash flow. Our sales growth and focus on profit realization drove strong financial results across both our consumer and Flavor Solutions segments and reflects the successful execution of our strategies and the engagement of our employees around the world. We have a broad and advantaged global flavor portfolio as seen on slide 5, which continues to position us to meet the demand for flavor around the world and grow our business.

This morning, you will hear about our 2019 accomplishments, which were driven by successes across the portfolio. Our investments in new products, brand marketing, capabilities, and infrastructure continue to drive growth. The breadth and reach of our portfolio across segments, geographies, channels, customers, and product offerings creates a balanced portfolio to drive consistency in our performance in a volatile environment. Our highlights for the year include, in our Consumer segment, strong U.S. branded growth and double-digit e-commerce growth across all regions. In our Flavor Solutions segment, we continue to win with customers, driving base business and new product growth with Europe, Middle East, and Africa, our EMEA region, driving particularly strong performance. Overall, we're confident that the breadth and reach of our portfolio continues to position us to fully meet the demand for flavor around the world and grow our business.

Heading into 2020, I'm confident our operating momentum will continue. This morning, I'll begin with our Q4 results, reflect on our 2019 achievements, and then share with you some of our 2020 business momentum and plans. After that, I'll turn it over to Michael Smith, who will go in more depth on the quarter end results and the details of our 2020 guidance. Let's start with our Q4 results on slide 6. Starting with our top-line, versus the year ago period, we grew sales 1% for the total company, including a 1% unfavorable impact from currency. In constant currency, we grew sales 2% with both the segments contributing to the increase. In addition to our top-line growth, we grew adjusted operating income and expanded our adjusted operating margin.

Higher sales, cost savings led by our comprehensive Continuous Improvement Program, or CCI, drove the growth, which was partially offset by higher brand marketing expense. At the bottom line, our Q4 adjusted earnings per share of $1.61 was lower than $1.67 in the prior period, for a decline of 4%. This decline includes a 7% headwind from a higher adjusted tax rate. Our adjusted operating income growth was more than offset by this tax headwind. Turning to our Q4 segment business performance, in our consumer segment, we grew our constant currency sales 2% in the Q4 , driven by the Americas and Asia Pacific region. In the Americas, we grew constant currency sales 2%, attributable to higher volume and product mix, driven by both our base business and new products.

Our strong U.S. branded performance was partially offset by declines in private label products as well as soft Canada sales performance. Our U.S. shipments were in line with strong consumer consumption across our portfolio. Our category management initiatives, effective marketing support, and merchandising execution, expanded distribution, and new products all contributed to driving growth in the Q4 . Our IRI data indicates U.S. McCormick branded spices and seasoning scanner sales grew in line with the category, and we again had double-digit growth in unmeasured channels. Our McCormick branded dry recipe mixes continued their momentum of consumption and share growth. Consumption in spices and seasonings and dry recipe mixes accelerated through the Q4 , both for the categories and McCormick branded products, with particularly strong results in November. Our brand marketing and our strong merchandising execution drove strong holiday results.

Our new products, including McCormick ONE and McCormick Street Taco dry recipe mixes, continued to gain momentum and contribute to growth. As we accelerate our condiment leadership, French's Mustard and Stubb's Bar-B-Q continued to grow consumption and share. Frank's RedHot sauce had strong performance again this quarter, and over the entire Frank's portfolio, including frozen wings, seasoning blends, and dry recipe mixes, we drove double-digit consumption growth as we're making further progress in our opportunities to expand this brand. In the EMEA region, we're focused on driving brand growth, and our success with new products and strong promotional programs has continued, particularly in the U.K. Growth was tempered in other parts of the region for the quarter and the full year by declines in private label. We remain selective where we participate, aligning our strategy to optimize the profitability of our portfolio.

In the Asia Pacific region, our sales growth was driven by pricing actions with volume growth, as I've mentioned, partially impacted by macroeconomic pressures in China. Our fundamentals across the region are strong, we've driven strong growth for the full year in 2019. Let me take a moment now to mention the rapidly evolving events in China, which we are following very closely to first and foremost ensure the health and safety of our employees. All of our Wuhan facility activity, from sourcing of materials to distribution of manufactured product, is contained within the Chinese market. At this point, it is too soon to quantify any business impact. Turning now to the Flavor Solutions Segment, we grew sales 3% in constant currency in the Q4 with all three regions benefiting from higher volume.

In the Americas, we had strong flavor sales growth driven by snack seasonings attributable to robust base business growth and new products. Across both our restaurant and packaged food customers, new products continued to drive growth in the H2 of the year, following a particularly strong H1 of innovation. Our momentum also continued with strong branded food service growth. Turning to EMEA, we drove strong constant currency sales growth. We're winning with our customers through expanded distribution, promotional activities, and new products. During 2019, we were successful in this region in establishing a significant new product platform with a global customer and have achieved a 100% new product win rate with them. Finally, in the Asia Pacific region, our Q4 sales growth was the best performance of the year and was partially driven by our customers' promotional activities as well as new products.

Starting with our 2019 financial results, as seen on slide 9, we drove 3% constant currency sales growth driven by new products, brand marketing investments, and expanded distribution. Our Consumer segment grew sales 3% in constant currency driven by the U.S. and China. In our Flavor Solutions segment, all three regions drove the constant currency sales growth of 3% with particularly strong EMEA performance. We grew constant currency adjusted operating income 7%, driven by higher sales and a 60-basis-point gross margin expansion driven primarily from CCI-led savings.

This increase, combined with a lower interest expense and an increase in income from unconsolidated operations, drove an 8% increase in adjusted earnings per share to $5.35 for fiscal 2019, including an unfavorable impact of currency exchange rates versus last year. With higher sales and CCI, we increased our adjusted operating margin to 18.3%, which is an 80-basis-point expansion from last year. We expanded adjusted operating margin in both of our segments while also making investments to drive continued growth. We reached a record $119 million of annual cost savings driven by our CCI program to fuel our growth. We realized $463 million in CCI-led cost savings over the last four years, exceeding our four-year, $400 million goal, and there continues to be a long runway in 2020 and beyond to deliver additional cost savings.

2019 was an eighth consecutive year of record cash flow from operations, ending the year at $947 million, a 15% increase from last year. We are making great progress with our working capital improvements and expect the programs we've put in place will continue the momentum in 2020. Our strong cash flow is enabling us to make great progress in paying down our acquisition debt, and we further reduced our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio, as Michael will discuss further in a few minutes. At year-end, our board of directors announced a 9% increase in the quarterly dividend, marking our 34th consecutive year of dividend increases. We have paid dividends every year since 1925 and are proud to be a Dividend Aristocrat. Now I would like to comment on some of our 2019 achievements beyond our financial performance.

New products remain integral to our sales growth, with 8% of 2019 sales from product launches in the last three years. In our Consumer segment, where new product innovation differentiates our brand and strengthens our relevance with our consumer, our robust 2019 launches across all regions accelerated our new product growth rate, and we're excited about the momentum they are building. In our Flavor Solutions segment, we are capitalizing on our differentiated culinary foundation, customer collaboration, and technology platform. We realized particularly strong new product sales growth in 2019 with packaged food companies. While new product growth with quick service restaurants was tempered due to a stronger core item focus, particularly in the APZ region, which we mentioned throughout the year.

Brand marketing is a key driver of sales growth, and we've made significant investments supporting our brands over the last few years. In 2019, we continued to optimize our brand marketing spend, leveraging our scale and getting more value out of each marketing dollar, enabling us to maintain a comparable level of spend to last year while delivering an 11% increase in the Americas working media. Our marketing excellence organization drove greater speed, quality, and effectiveness across our programs, notably in our digital marketing. In 2019, our digital leadership was recognized again by Gartner L2 research. McCormick was ranked number one on their Digital IQ Index for food, and the only food brand to earn the title of Genius, their top distinction.

This marked our sixth consecutive year in the top five ranking of over 100 food and beverage brands on the effectiveness of our digital website, social media, e-commerce, and mobile platforms. Our investments and resources across e-commerce are also paying off. We're delivering global growth and have positioned ourselves for future acceleration. We drove double-digit sales growth in all regions, resulting in global e-commerce growth of 44%, driven by both strong pure-play and omni-channel performance. We're making measurable progress toward our 2025 sustainability goals, and just last week, issued our most recent Purpose-Led Performance Report. We're being recognized for our efforts.

During 2019, we were recognized for the third consecutive year as a DiversityInc Top 50 company, and at the recent 2020 Davos World Economic Forum, Corporate Knights ranked McCormick in their 2020 global 100 Most Sustainable Corporations Index as number one in the food products industry for the fourth consecutive year. Just last week as well, we announced the election of Anne Bramman to our board of directors. Anne is currently the CFO of Nordstrom, with extensive financial and leadership experience, and brings an exciting new background to the board in digital e-commerce and online retail shopping. Anne's history of driving growth and productivity for companies with leading brands, as well as her broad financial expertise, makes her a great fit for McCormick. We look forward to Anne further strengthening the impressive group of leaders that comprise our board.

Michael Smith will go over 2020 guidance in a few moments, but I'd like to mention a few highlights related to our growth momentum and plan, a significant business transformation plan, and provide some summary comments on slide 11. At the foundation of our sales growth rate is the rising global consumer demand for great taste and healthy eating. Consumers have an increased interest in creating flavor experiences with bold, rich, authentic flavors, while also demanding convenience. Additionally, consumers are focused on fresh, natural, and recognizable ingredients with greater transparency around the sourcing and quality of food, and consumers want to know about the environmental and social impacts behind the brands they buy. Flavor continues to be an advantaged global category, and our products inspire flavor exploration and are the essential complement to real, fresh food.

We deliver flavor across all markets and through all channels, and are aligned with consumers' demand for flavor, convenience, health, and sustainably minded business practices. Our alignment with these long-term trends, our breadth and reach, combined with our execution of effective strategies, positions us well to meet increased consumer demand, both through our products and through our customers' products, and bolsters our confidence to drive sales growth across both segments. Across our consumer segment, our 2020 plans include to further drive our undisputed leadership in spices and seasonings, accelerate our condiment global platform, and fuel our growth in emerging markets and channels, as well as an on-trend, fast-growing platform. With our investment in brand marketing, category management, analytical capability, and new product, as well as our drive to strengthen our connection with the consumer, we expect to drive further sales growth.

For our flavor solution segment, the execution of our strategy to migrate our portfolio to more technically insulated and value-added categories will continue in 2020. With top-line opportunities gained from our global investments to expand our flavor scale, as well as with our momentum in flavor categories such as savory products and beverages, and in branded food service, we expect to realize further results from this strategy. Driven by our best-in-class customer engagement, we also expect to continue our new product momentum. Beyond our strategies to drive sales growth, we're also making business transformation investments to create capacity for continued growth. Turning now to slide 12. We are implementing a global operating model across our entire organization to deliver globally aligned and simplified processes that will allow us to grow at scale through increased digitalization and automation.

As technology is the backbone for this model, we've begun the process of replacing our existing disparate ERP systems with SAP HANA, a single global system. Our last ERP implementation was in the early 2000s, and since then, we have more than doubled in size. This growth, as well as changes in technology and SAP's plan to discontinue support of the current platform, requires us to invest once again to modernize our ERP systems and transform our business processes. We want to be ahead of the curve in achieving an advanced integrated platform, which will allow us to realize the benefits of a scalable platform for growth sooner and enable growth in line with our aspirations. This is a multi-year program during which we will continually learn and adjust as we progress to a full global implementation.

We have recently completed milestones for our global template and have made updates to our implementation plan, which we expect will drive greater benefits and lower risk at a higher estimated total program cost. With the completion of these milestones, we've broadened our program cost estimate to include estimates related to the go-live activities in our operations, which we are now able to estimate. As such, we have added these expenses to our information system technology cost, the basis for our previously communicated range of $150 million-$200 million. We are now projecting the total cost of our ERP investment to range between $300 million- $350 million from 2019 through the anticipated completion of our global rollout in fiscal 2022, with an estimated split of 40% capital spending and 60% operating expense.

As such, the total operating expense impact for the entire program is estimated to be between $180 million and $210 million. In fiscal 2020, we are projecting our total operating expense impact to be approximately $80 million, which is an incremental $60 million over fiscal 2019. Notwithstanding this significant incremental investment in 2020, we expect growth in our underlying business to remain strong. While the deployment activities will continue through 2022, we expect to return to our normal growth algorithm in 2021. Michael Smith will discuss the 2020 financial impact of the program further in his outlook remarks. I'd like to now share highlights of the updated plan. We've now included in our program costs, as I just mentioned, projected expenses related to go-live activities such as inventory build and pre-go-live operating expenses. The inclusion of these costs drives nearly half of the increase in our operating expense projection.

We are also extending our deployment schedule and increasing training and support, all to further mitigate risk. This strengthens our change management plan and represents the second biggest driver of our projected increase. Next, we plan to drive greater business transformation, including integrating certain other software applications within our global HANA solution. Finally, we've also identified additional opportunities to drive greater financial benefits after stabilization of each of our phased deployments. These updates will drive greater benefits and lower risk. We are excited about this investment to enable us to transform our ways of working and realize the benefits of a scalable growth platform. Throughout 2020, we'll periodically provide high-level updates on the progress of the program. Our overarching focus, though, will be to continue highlighting the strength of our operating performance.

Our achievements in 2019, our effective growth strategies, as well as our robust operating momentum, all bolster our confidence in delivering another strong year of growth and performance in 2020. We're looking forward to sharing more details regarding our 2020 growth plans and our business transformation initiatives in just a few weeks at CAGNY. To summarize, on slide 13, before turning it over to Michael Smith, we achieved solid financial results in 2019. We're driving strong momentum and sales growth. We're continuing to drive sales growth balanced with our focus on lowering costs to expand margins and sustainably realize long-term earnings growth. We have a solid foundation, and in an environment that continues to be dynamic and fast-paced, we are ensuring we remain agile, relevant, long-term sustainable growth. Our fundamentals, momentum, and growth outlook are stronger than ever.

Our experienced leaders and employees are executing on our strategies, which are designed to build long-term value for our shareholders. With our 2019 results, they've again proved to be effective, and we're confident they will prove effective again in 2020. In 2020, we continue to differentiate our brands, build capability, and make investments for growth that will continue to move McCormick forward. Our top-tier long-term growth objectives remain unchanged, and in our 2020 outlook, reflect the strong underlying business performance and necessary significant investments in business transformation to achieve those long-term objectives. Michael will discuss this more in a few moments. I want to recognize McCormick employees around the world and thank them for their dedicated efforts and engagement. The collective power of our people drives our momentum and our success.

With this power and our effective strategy, we are well positioned to achieve continued growth in 2020 while also driving transformation to fuel growth into the future. Thank you for your attention, and it is now my pleasure to turn it over to Michael Smith for additional remarks on our 2019 financial results and the details on our 2020 guidance.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Thanks, Lawrence, and good morning, everyone. I will now provide some additional comments on our Q4 performance and full year results, as well as detail on our 2020 outlook. Starting on slide 15, during the Q4 , we grew sales 2% in constant currency, driven by both our Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments. The Consumer segment grew sales 2% in constant currency. This growth was driven by the Americas and Asia Pacific regions. On slide 16, Consumer segment sales in the Americas rose 2% in constant currency versus Q4 of 2018. This increase was driven by strong U.S. branded growth, partially offset by declines in private label products and soft Canada sales performance. In EMEA, constant currency consumer sales were down 1% from a year ago, primarily due to declines in private label products.

We grew consumer sales in the Asia Pacific region 3% in constant currency, driven by pricing and promotional activities. Sales growth in India was strong due to e-commerce and holiday promotional activity. Turning to our Flavor Solutions segment on slide 19, we grew Q4 constant currency sales 3%, driven by continued strength in our EMEA region. In the Americas, Flavor Solutions constant currency sales increased 3%, driven by new products and base business growth, with continued momentum in snack seasonings and branded food service. In EMEA, we grew Flavor Solutions sales 5% in constant currency. Sales growth to quick service restaurants and packaged food companies was driven by new products, base business volume growth, and pricing. In the Asia Pacific region, Flavor Solutions sales grew 2% in constant currency, as higher sales to quick service restaurants were partially driven by the timing of a promotional activity.

As seen on slide 23, Q4 adjusted operating income, which excludes special charges, increased 3%, or 4% in constant currency versus the year ago period. Adjusted operating income in the consumer segment rose to $227 million, a 1% increase, which was the same in constant currency. In the flavor solutions segment, adjusted operating income rose 11% to $76 million, which in constant currency was a 12% increase. Growth in both segments was primarily driven by higher sales, CCI-led cost savings, and a one-time 2019 global benefit plan alignment, with some offset from incentive compensation. Incentive compensation was partially due to, and offset by, favorable results realized below operating income, such as interest expense and income from unconsolidated operations. In the consumer segment, a 7% increase in brand marketing versus the Q4 of last year unfavorably impacted the consumer adjusted operating income growth.

Flavor solutions growth was favorably impacted by product mix. For the fiscal year, the increase in adjusted operating income in constant currency was 7%, and we expanded adjusted operating income margin 80 basis points, with both segments contributing to the growth. In constant currency, the consumer segment grew adjusted operating income 7%, while the flavor solutions segment grew adjusted operating income 5%. As seen on slide 24, gross profit margin expanded 120 basis points in the Q4 versus the year ago period, as we had planned, and for the full year expanded 60 basis points, driven by CCI-led cost savings. Our selling general and administrative expense as a percentage of net sales increased by 80 basis points from the Q4 of 2018. Leverage from sales growth and CCI-led cost savings were more than offset by increases in both planned brand marketing and additional incentive compensation expense.

Turning to income taxes on slide 25, our Q4 adjusted effective tax rate was 24.7%, as compared to 19% in the year ago period. Our Q4 adjusted rate in the year ago period was favorably impacted by discrete items, principally a higher level of stock option exercises. For the full year, our adjusted tax rate was 19.5%, which was comparable to 2018. Income from unconsolidated operations increased 7% in Q4 of 2019 and 18% for the full year, with strong performance by our McCormick de Mexico joint venture driving both comparisons. For 2020, we expect a mid to high single digit increase in our income from unconsolidated operations. At the bottom line, as shown on slide 27, Q4 2019 adjusted earnings per share was $1.61 as compared to $1.67 for the year ago period.

The decline was mainly due to a higher adjusted income tax rate versus last year, with partial offsets from higher adjusted operating income and lower interest expense. This comparison also includes an unfavorable impact of currency rates. On slide 28, we summarize highlights for cash flow and the year-end balance sheet. Our cash flow provided from operations ended the year at a record high of $947 million, compared to $821 million in 2018. For the fiscal year, our cash conversion cycle was significantly better than the year ago period, down 22% or 12 days, as we executed against programs to achieve working capital reductions. We returned a portion of this cash flow to our shareholders through dividends and paid down debt, reducing our acquisition debt during the fiscal year by $436 million.

Of our $1.5 billion in acquisition-related term debts, we have now paid down $1.25 billion, and we finished the year with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.4 x. Our capital expenditures were $174 million in 2019 and included initial spending related to the transition of our ERP platform, as well as growth and optimization projects across the globe. In 2020, we expect our capital expenditures to be higher than 2019 to support our investments to drive growth, including our ERP business transformation investment. As of year-end, $32 million remained of a $600 million share repurchase program that was authorized by our board of directors in March 2015. An additional $600 million share repurchase program was authorized by our board of directors in November 2019.

We expect 2020 to be another year of strong cash flow, driven by profit and working capital initiatives, and a priority to continue to have a balanced use of cash, making investments to drive growth, returning a significant portion to our shareholders through dividends, and to pay down debt. Let's now move to our current financial outlook for 2020 on slide 29 and 30. We are well positioned for another year of underlying solid performance with our broad and advantaged flavor portfolio, effective growth strategies, and focus on profit realization. As Lawrence mentioned, in 2020, we expect adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share growth to reflect strong underlying business performance offset by significant incremental investment associated with a business transformation, our ERP replacement program, and a higher projected effective tax rate. We also expect there to be a minimal impact of currency rates.

At the top line, we expect to grow sales 2%-4%. This increase is expected to be entirely organic growth as no incremental impact from acquisitions is planned and will be driven primarily by higher volume and product mix from new products, expanded distribution, and brand marketing, as well as the impact of pricing, which, in conjunction with cost savings, is expected to offset anticipated mid to single-digit inflationary pressures. Our 2020 gross profit margin is expected to be 25-75 basis points higher than 2019, in part driven by our CCI-led cost savings. Our adjusted operating income growth rate, excluding the incremental business transformation impact, reflects expected strong underlying business performance driven by sales growth and is projected to be a 5%-7% increase from $979 million.

This includes our cost savings target of approximately $105 million and an expected mid-single-digit increase in brand marketing investments, which will be heavier in the H1 of the year. As Lawrence mentioned earlier, we are projecting an incremental operating expense impact of $60 million versus 2019 related to our ERP replacement program. This impact lowers our adjusted operating growth rate by 600 basis points, resulting in our total expected adjusted operating income to be comparable to 2019, ±1%. We expect the ERP expenses to be higher in the H2 of the year. Our 2020 adjusted effective income tax rate is projected to be approximately 22%, based upon our estimated mix of earnings by geography, as well as factoring in a level of discrete impacts, the most significant of which occur during the Q1 of 2020, related to a refinement to our entity structure.

For the remaining quarters, we estimate a tax rate of 23%, thus driving our full-year outlook of 22%. This outlook versus our 2019 adjusted effective tax rate is approximately a 300 basis point headwind to our 2020 adjusted earnings per share growth. Our change in projected 2020 adjusted earnings per share from 2019 is expected to be driven by strong underlying business performance growth of 7%-9%, the unfavorable tax headwind I just mentioned, and an estimated unfavorable 700 basis point impact from our incremental ERP investment. Our guidance range for the adjusted earnings per share in 2020 is $5.20-$5.30, compared to $5.35 of adjusted earnings per share in 2019. In summary, we are projecting strong underlying business performance in our 2020 outlook, offset by a significant incremental ERP investment associated with business transformation and a higher projected effective tax rate.

Turning to slide 31, I want to discuss our track record of achieving our constant currency long-term financial objectives. As we have said, our long-term sales growth objective is 4%-6%, with base business, new products, and acquisitions each contributing a 1/3. Additionally, our long-term objective is to grow adjusted operating income 7%-9%. This, coupled with our approach to capital allocation, results in a long-term adjusted earnings per share growth objective of 9%-11%. Given there is variability in our business from year- to- year, especially related to transformational events, we evaluate our performance against these objectives over several years. With that said, a review of our five-year compounded annual growth rates, which includes our 2020 guidance, projects that our five-year compounded annual sales and adjusted operating income growth rates are expected to exceed our long-term objectives.

Additionally, our adjusted earnings per share performance is also in line with our long-term objective. On a final note, while we have a significant transformational investment in 2020, we expect to return to our normal growth algorithm in 2021. As Lawrence mentioned, our foundation is strong, our strategy is effective, and we are generating results in line with our objectives. I'd like to now turn it back to Lawrence for some additional remarks before we move to your questions.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Thank you, Michael. Now that Michael has shared our financial results and outlook in more detail, I'd like to recap the key takeaways as seen on slide 32. We delivered solid organic sales, adjusted operating profit, and adjusted earnings per share growth in 2019. We expanded adjusted operating profit margin and drove strong results in both segments. Our 2020 outlook reflects strong operating performance driven by our solid foundation, continued strong momentum, and the successful execution of proven growth strategy. Our underlying business is robust, with offsetting impacts from an incremental business transformation expense and a significant tax headwind. We're confident that 2020 will be another successful year, and we will continue to build long-term value.

Importantly, we are continuing to deliver differentiated results while significantly investing for growth to build the McCormick of the future. We'll share more about these transformation investments at CAGNY in a few weeks. Now let's turn to your questions.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Morning, everybody.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Morning, Andrew.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Morning, Andrew.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Hi there. Just one quick one on ERP and then just one on private label. With ERP, I guess, on the operating expense piece, I think as you mentioned, the cost is now expected to be about, I think, $195 million at the midpoint, versus the $60 million-$80 million before, given the go live piece that you mentioned. As we think ahead to fiscal 2021, it seems like there's likely still another incremental step up on operating expense, where previously maybe fiscal 2020 was expected to be the bulk of the investment. In your comment around getting back to the algorithm in 2021, is it that a big chunk of one-time expense from 2020 goes away, and then you've got an incremental expense in 2021? I'm trying to get a sense of what the offset is to that incremental cost in 2021?

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Hey, Andrew, let me start, and then I'll also let Michael Smith comment on that. That's a great question and a great thing to clarify. It is still our expectation that 2020 is the peak and the ramp-up of the expenses from business transformation and ERP. We don't have a real roll-off of those expenses in 2021. They continue at a high expense level, but the ramp-up is done, we expect to be back to algorithm in 2021, really all in. Those expenses ramp down in 2022. I hope that's clarifying. Michael, did I-

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Yeah, in 2020, we'll have expenses for the pilots as we mentioned, and also it's our heavy investment year. We really, 2022 and 2023 is when we get the wind down and the benefits really kick in for us.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Okay.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

In 2020, we have to build the whole global template and stand it up. When we go live on our pilots, we actually have to start depreciating it and realize all the expense of that.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Got you. To the ERP, by the way, I don't think this is the case, but would an implementation of a plan, a program like this impact sort of ability to integrate acquisitions at all? Or is that really a separate aspect?

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

I think that's a separate aspect. Our priority, of course, is growth. If we had an attractive asset that we wanted to buy, we would adjust our ERP plans in order to accommodate it.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Okay.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

We've been thoughtful about that internally, and we don't believe that it would interfere with our ability to do an acquisition of the right asset, whether it be a bolt-on or a large one.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Great. Just quick on private label. You talked about some of the weakness in private label in consumer Americas, and I guess I'm just trying to get a little more perspective or color around that, whether it was a one-off, like particular retailer thing, was it McCormick losing private label share or overall private label slowing? I'm trying to get a sense of if this is something we think about as you move through into 2020 or somewhere more of a one-off. Not that it's a bad thing for margins, of course.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Right. Yeah. Exactly. Well, that's actually part of the answer. The private label was one of the factors in Q4 that was down, and when we talked about it in Q3, it was up. I would think that in the, this is just the kind of the normal ebb and flow of this business. Private label is not as strong as it was a year ago, and you can see that through the consumption data, and that's reflected in our performance as well. I think this is more of a kind of a normal ebb and flow in that part of the business. We are selective about where we participate. There are always a level of wins and losses.

We want to participate in private label where it's a strategic value to us and also, where, it's frankly, it's profitable. I think you can see that, if you look at our Q4 in the Americas in particular, brand came in strong, private label was light, and that change in mix, flows right through in the margin expansion.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Sure. Yeah. Great. Thanks very much. See you soon.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Ken Goldman with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Ken Goldman
Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi, good morning, and thank you.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Hey, Ken Goldman.

Ken Goldman
Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi. I just wanted to ask, I know it's way too early to talk about the impact of coronavirus, but I wanted to make sure that maybe I had my facts straight on it. Can I ask a couple of questions on maybe exactly what this, what your setup is there? I think you have one plant in Wuhan. I don't think it's two, I think it's one. Is that correct?

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

That's correct.

Ken Goldman
Analyst, JPMorgan

I guess the follow-up would be, is that plant operating today? Is there any way for us to sort of quantify how much that contributes to your sales or EBIT? Can the other plants maybe pick up some of the slack if that plant doesn't happen to be operating? I just wanted to kind of get some of the lay of the land there to how to think about that.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

I'll say a few words about this. Of course, our concern first and foremost is for the health and safety of our employees and around product safety. I want to emphasize that a lot of our efforts and responses are directed to that. We don't disclose our China sales specifically, but we do talk about, as you know, anything that's over 10%, we do have to spell out. While China is a large country for us, it's our largest after the U.S., it's less than 10% of our sales and quite a bit less than 10% of our profitability, even though that is a profitable business. I think it's too early to really know what the impact is gonna be on us. We've got three plants in China. One is in Shanghai, one in Guangzhou, and one in Wuhan.

Right now all of them are closed. It's the Chinese New Year holiday. They closed in the normal course of business, actually, before all the government restrictions were put in place. This was a very orderly, planful shutdown for their regular holiday season. Normally, there's about a 10-day shutdown period for the Chinese New Year. If everything was normal, they'd have reopened for business on February 2nd, along with the rest of the contract. Sorry, February 3rd, I think it's a Monday for resumption of shipments. That's actually the date that the government has put out for most of the country to reopen operations. The city of Shanghai has put in a special restriction saying that companies can't reopen till February 10th. Other than that, there's really no new news for us, and so far, it's not a business interruption.

I think it really remains to be seen how far this goes. Certainly, the reduction in people traveling, being able to go out to eat, being able to shop at the grocery store is not a positive for our business. We can't really quantify it right now. We certainly think that more facts will come out over the coming days, really, and we'll be better able to understand what the real business impact is.

Ken Goldman
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, that's very helpful. I guess just a quick follow-up, and then I'll let it go.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

If there's one thing I would say, if there's one thing to give us kind of caution around our H1 of the year, it's the uncertainty around this.

Ken Goldman
Analyst, JPMorgan

No, that's exactly where I was going to go. Is it safe to say that your guidance includes a little bit of conservatism just because of the uncertainty, or is it really just so uncertain that it's not worth even estimating at all in your numbers?

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Ken Goldman, I think it's a consideration. It's definitely something in the last week or two we've thought hard about and yeah, I'd say so. Different point, I'd make too, this Wuhan manufacturing facility, [audio distortion] . It's really within country.

Ken Goldman
Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. Thank you so much.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Steven Strycula with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.

Steven Strycula
Analyst, UBS

Hi, good morning. First question would be more of an operational one. Just wanted to know, Lawrence, relative to internal plan, what, if anything, kind of deviated in the Q4 trends? It sounds like at a high level, it might've been private label. Just to clarify a little bit more from Andrew Lazar's question is there any kind of read forward into 2020 about that state of the business, or was it really just some lumpiness between Q3 and Q4?

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Well, first of all, on our Q3 call, we did guide to the low end of our range for a variety of reasons. We talked about some unseasonable weather impact and a warehouse transition in our Flavor Solutions side on the Americas part. Those factors did spill into Q4, really in the September timeframe in particular. We did come in a little light due to those factors rolling forward, especially in September, and some softness in private label in Canada that we mentioned in our prepared remarks. I would think that the Canada softness is non-recurring. It related to the promotional activity that we didn't repeat, and we see that as a non-recurring factor. The private label, probably, I would expect that to carry into the early part of the year as well. That might be the one carry-forward item. Those were some of the negatives.

I will say, on the positive side, the quarter started a little soft. As I had mentioned, we had unseasonable weather in September in the Americas. We did have some hangover from the warehouse transition. It got stronger as we went through the quarter and definitely finished on the strong side. We had strong consumer consumption and strong branded growth, which as I mentioned in Andrew's question, you can see in our margins. The Flavor Solutions was really solid other than the warehouse issue early in the quarter, so I wouldn't think there was anything untoward there and really I don't really think of anything as being a negative there that would carry forward.

Steven Strycula
Analyst, UBS

Okay. That's very helpful, a quick follow-up for Michael Smith. I know it's extremely early to even think about 2021. Just want to understand the cadence you laid out for the ERP system. For 2021, would that imply that the residual leftover balance would be the runs through the P&Ls roughly $80 million-$115 million, and then the tax rate this year is 22%, including discrete items. Is the normalized rate, given what we know about tax reform at this point, probably 24% for the company? How should we think about it?

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Yeah, I think if you look at the Q4 tax rate, which was 24.7%, it's going to be in that range. We didn't hardly have any discrete items in the Q4 . Yeah, the underlying tax rate is in that range. Of course, we're always looking to optimize structure and things like that to help drive that. From an ERP perspective, like we said, there's a lot of costs going into 2020 and 2021. 2021 is when we really have the big deployments. We have the pilots this year, and we're building out the global model in 2020. I think of it, those are the big years. We'll have some expenses out into 2022 and 2023 as we bring up some of the other regions, but they'll fall off pretty rapidly.

Steven Strycula
Analyst, UBS

Okay. Is any of the $80 million this year included in the $0.05 charge that you're adjusting out of operating earnings?

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Oh, special charges? No, none of this program is going through special charges. This is all just going right through the P&L normal GAAP.

Steven Strycula
Analyst, UBS

Very helpful. Thank you.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Thanks.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Please proceed with your questions.

Alexia Howard
Analyst, Bernstein

Good morning, everyone.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Good morning, Alexia.

Alexia Howard
Analyst, Bernstein

I've just got two quick ones. The operating income trends between Consumer and Flavor Solutions, it was up very modestly this quarter in Consumer, but up double digits in the Flavor Solutions side. Just wondering, will the brand marketing investment continue to pressure margins in the Consumer side? Can the margins in the Flavor Solutions side of things continue to expand like this so that they continue to converge over time? I have a follow-up. Thank you.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Yeah, Alexia, this is Michael Smith. As we saw in the H2 of the year, our flavor solutions margins did improve. We had a tough comparison in the H1 because of transactional FX rates. Those did ease in the H2 like we talked about earlier in the year. We do see those favorable trends continuous. FX is really for 2020, is going to be a neutral impact versus -2-ish% in 2019. That's a favorable trend there. We do see continued optimization of our portfolio, more value-added products and flavor solutions to help drive margins upward.

On the consumer side, in this year, in 2018, our advertising increased about 18%, in 2019, we basically have spent comparable. We decided we're going to optimize our spend, formed a marketing excellence program. Even though our AMP spending was flat, our working media was up double digits. We really got the optimization there.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

We also changed, we skewed it, so if you recall, in the H1 , we were below a year ago. In the H2 , we were above. That's what you're seeing in the Q4 operating income coming through is a kind of a, I won't say hoarded it, but we did skew the AMP towards the Q4 where it, frankly, has the highest ROI.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

You'll see in the next year as we set the prepared remarks, we're going to up-spend AMP. The comparison's easier in the H1 of the year. We'll have increases in AMP, a little above our full-year guidance.

Alexia Howard
Analyst, Bernstein

Great.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Very favorable return on it. We measure this. It's really effective.

Alexia Howard
Analyst, Bernstein

Great. As a follow-up, acquisitions. I think in previous commentary you'd said you were looking internationally and possibly at the flavor solutions side of things. Has that thinking changed as you think about the larger scale deals that might be on your radar screen? Thank you, and I'll pass it on.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Yeah, I'd say that there's no change in our thinking about acquisitions. If we were to do a bolt-on size acquisition that contributed to our international business to kind of balance out the skew that we've got towards the Americas right now, that would be a plus. Flavor solutions, we're certainly interested in assets in that flavor space. Those are certainly areas where we would be looking to fish. The same set of larger assets that we have on our internal tracker are still out there in the market. There have been some large transactions in the space. They were not things that we were targeting.

Alexia Howard
Analyst, Bernstein

Great. Thank you very much. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Faiza Alwy
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Hi. Good morning.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Morning, Faiza Alwy.

Faiza Alwy
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Morning. Two questions from me. One is just on, is it possible for you to disaggregate as you think about 2020 outlook between the flavors business versus the consumer business? Are you expecting more growth in one segment versus the other?

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

I'd say we expect the guidance for both of them in the 2%-4% range, which is pretty consistent with our strategy over the time. We feel there's opportunities.

Faiza Alwy
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

I wanted to talk about cash flow a little bit, especially as it relates to the deployment of ERP and what that would mean for the cash conversion cycle in 2020 and beyond. Relatedly, if you could discuss your capital allocation priorities because you have delevered quite a bit. You're getting closer to your 3x target. You've talked about a new share repurchase program, and you just talked about acquisitions. How should we think about sort of your priorities for cash in 2020?

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Those are great questions. On cash conversion cycle, yeah, we're down 44 days since 2016, so we really put a lot of effort into our program across all components of working capital. There's a lot of runway to go here with extending terms and other programs. We do, however, also realize that sometime this year, we're going to start building inventory, which will eat into some of those gains. I think the opportunities overall still do outweigh some of that inventory build. I don't want to give you a cash conversion cycle forecast. I don't want to get into that much detail, but we still do think there's some opportunities. The nice thing is once we get these go-lives behind us, we do think there's a lot of benefits from a working capital perspective from being on one global system.

That's part of the return that we're expecting from our ERP investment, quite frankly. From a capital allocation perspective, you're right. We're down to 3.4x debt to EBITDA. We're going to continue paying down debt this year in the absence of M&A targets, as we promised. We reauthorized the $600 million of buyback. We were down to $32 million. What we're using that as stock options to get exercise for neutralizing the impact there. In the near term, we'll continue to do that. We don't see any large stock purchase or anything like that. M&A is obviously where we pay down debt and attractive M&A targets to drive growth are two best uses of cash.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

We've looked at some targets. We're actively considering assets that come available. We feel that we actually have clear line of sight to getting down to our target. We don't think that we actually have to literally get there. We're not going to let a great asset get away.

Faiza Alwy
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Robert Moskow
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hi. Thank you. I might have missed it, the reason for the increase in the cost of the ERP system was to have a broader estimate, I guess, for the go-live activity. I think you did have an estimate before for the go-live activity. What changed between now and a few months ago to have it expand that much?

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Yeah. The estimate that we gave previously were literally the program costs around the IT core program itself. They did not include the broader business impact and preparation of the business, which we're now giving quantification of and guiding to and really all of the costs associated with building and holding inventory and business preparation is about 50% of the increase in the OpEx component that we're talking about here. Our concern here is really to make sure that we have a smooth go-live without any disruption to our customers and to mitigate risk around these go-lives. It would be our hope that they go smoothly, and we've got a lot of experience in go-live with SAP, so we're not neophytes to this.

We did just brought up all of the RB Foods business on our old version of SAP very smoothly, we would hope that this goes smoothly. We don't want to just hope. We want to make sure that we're really doing the things that it takes to mitigate that risk. That's a portion of it. Then also, we haven't given any kind of window into some of the other expenses. As we have the software as a service and that we start to realize and the depreciation cost, which I'm probably better off letting Michael Smith talk about. I'm going to stop on that point right now. I'll let you take over on that. Then the second piece is also again, around mitigating risk, is strengthening the change management program. We've taken it a lot deeper as we've looked at this.

We've just really been thoughtful about identifying areas where the business might be at risk or if something doesn't go right, or where we're not taking for granted that people working in the plant looking at new screens are going to get it quickly. We've really doubled down on the change management program, the number of super users that are embedded in the business, and we've extended the deployment schedule just a little bit following the pilots to make sure that we've got time to adjust if anything does surprise us in the pilots, which again, we don't have any reason to believe it will, but we're trying to be thoughtful and mitigate the risk as much as we can. Michael Smith you want to-

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Go ahead, Rob.

Robert Moskow
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. I guess, if you've given us a conservative estimate here, it's now in the organic kind of EBIT growth algorithm. If there's improvement versus that cost, will you give us an update and tell us to the extent to which it's upside to any given year?

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Well, obviously we will, Rob. We realize this is a multi-year program, though, but we will definitely be very transparent with this.

Robert Moskow
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay, great. Yeah.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Right. These programs, I'll just say these programs are expensive. They are multi-year. They are major, broad, enterprise-wide programs, and it's a lot of money, but we believe the price tag's in line with the experience that others have had when you consider the all-in cost.

Robert Moskow
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Right. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your questions.

Adam Samuelson
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yes, thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Hi.

Adam Samuelson
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

I was hoping to just get a little bit more color on the inflation guidance that you've given for the mid-single digits and the ability to offset that with pricing. Just A, where categories of buy where you're seeing inflation at or above those kinds of levels, like what's really driving it? Second, on the pricing side, would seem to imply about 100 basis points of pricing in the revenue growth guidance and just any specific categories or geographies where that might be an outsized benefit.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Adam, this is Michael. From a cost perspective, we're seeing a pretty broad-based increase across a lot of items. Some are declining, some, like garlic, are going up, but pretty much every category is seeing inflation higher than the last couple of years, whether it's packaging, the shipments from overseas, there's some new regulations there that are causing some increases. I wouldn't want to pin it on one thing. From a pricing perspective, we've obviously built that into our plans.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Yeah. I'd say, I don't think we want to break out the pricing portion of the guidance separately, but the pricing we are planning to take contributes to the confidence we have in our outlook for 2020, that's for sure. I will say that when we do take pricing, we know there's some elasticity impact as well, so we're considering that as well. Just because we're taking pricing doesn't mean it's literally additive to the results that we realized in the absence of pricing. You have to consider pricing and volume together. I'll also add that there's always some commercial tension in the discussions about pricing. I don't want to get overly specific about where we are.

I can say that in the Americas, we've really completed our pricing negotiations and have that resolved, and those pricing changes are going into effect as scheduled. In other parts of the world, it varies somewhat by market, sometimes because of statutory reasons. We'd expect to have it all in place by the end of the H1 . You'll see a ramp-up in pricing most likely during the year, for results.

Adam Samuelson
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, that's a helpful color. Just quickly for me, follow up. If we go back 12 months last year in November, you had a challenging Thanksgiving in the U.S., just want to make sure that as we look at kind of the sales performance this quarter in the Americas, that returned back to normal and mix seems to be favorable given the private label decline. As it relates to some of the premium Thanksgiving ingredients that you sell, that there was no-

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Yeah, we had a recovery effect. Our spices and seasonings business shipped. I mentioned consumption was strong. We shipped well ahead of consumption as we lapsed that dip on those branded items. That's definitely a contributor to the strong gross margin in the quarter. That's really where you see that through. There's an offset. It's less visible on the top line. As we said, the lower private label sales and some softness in Canada.

Adam Samuelson
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. I appreciate the color. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Chris Growe
Analyst, Stifel

Hi, good morning.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Hey, Chris.

Chris Growe
Analyst, Stifel

Hi. I just wanted to kind of follow on the last question, a point you made, just to be clear on the private label side. Are you talking about weakness in the category, or have you lost some private label business, perhaps even intentionally? Just to understand the magnitude of the decline in the Q4 , it seems like it was larger than I expected. Is that because of just the category, or?

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Well, certainly the category trends on private label are nowhere near what they were a year ago or two years ago, so you've seen that flatten out. Really, I don't want to overbake it here. Q3 private label was unusually strong. It was a little soft in the Q4 , and I'd say that this is just kind of normal ebb and flow in that business.

Chris Growe
Analyst, Stifel

Okay. Just a second question, if I could, around. You talked about it before. You have some cost inflation built in for the year, I'm assuming you've got some pricing you've noted, and we don't want to get into the timing and the amount of that. I guess what I'm trying to understand then, when I add in the cost savings, I guess I'll call them CCI cost savings, $105 million, why is that not sufficient then to offset the ERP spending? Is it because it has to offset some inflation, or where are those savings getting kind of eaten up to where they can't offset this incremental expense in ERP spending?

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Chris, this is Michael Smith. There's a $60 million incremental investment we're making this year that we wouldn't have in a normal year. I wouldn't expect CCI to offset that. CCI, what it does is it drops through the P&L. It covers things like increased advertising, as we make more investments in things, increased SG&A costs for salary. Actually, if you look at our guidance for next year, we have about a 50 basis point adjusted operating profit increase, which is our long-term algorithm. I think the reality is we can't expect when you have a $60 million incremental item to cover that.

Frankly, we hit $119 million this year on CCI. We're guiding to $105 million. Some of these resources we use to drive CCI are really supporting the ERP program. We just want to be aware of that, too. We can't just turn on CCI and make it go up $60 million.

Chris Growe
Analyst, Stifel

Okay. I guess we'll call it CCI program. Is there a multi-year program behind this, or is it just a year at a time from here on out as you think about your cost-saving opportunity?

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Four years ago, when we started, did the four-year program, and that was kind of a different time in the food industry, and we wanted to really show how we were different from a cost perspective and really planful and thoughtful about this and not doing ZBB and all that sort of stuff. At this point, it's a year-by-year process, but there's a long-term plan to it.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

It's also a program. We're not setting a multi-year program.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Things like ERP, that will generate savings in 2022, 2023. We have an internal program, but we don't talk about that externally. We'll give you the yearly buckets as we get the guidance.

Chris Growe
Analyst, Stifel

Okay, got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Peter Galbo with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.

Peter Galbo
Analyst, Bank of America

Hey, good morning, Lawrence and Michael, thanks for taking the question.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Yeah, of course.

Peter Galbo
Analyst, Bank of America

Just two really quick cleanup ones for me. Michael, I know you had said, CapEx for 2020 to be up over 2019. I don't know if there's any way to just quantify that more.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Yeah. Go ahead. In the 10-K, it's $265 million. There's a round number.

Peter Galbo
Analyst, Bank of America

$265 then. Okay, got it. Anything you can do to help us out just with interest expense? I would expect it to be lower year-over-year.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

Yeah, I think it will be lower. We had a nice decline this year. I think if you model it based on our outstanding debt, continued cash conversion, it will be down, definitely.

Peter Galbo
Analyst, Bank of America

Got it.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

You can model it.

Operator

Thank you. Our final question is coming from the line of Rob Dickerson with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.

Rob Dickerson
Analyst, Jefferies

Great. Thank you very much. A couple questions. Good morning. I guess, just the first question is to clarify on the transformation expenses over the next three years. It sounds like what you're saying is, yes, there's the ramp this fiscal year. Then just based off the math, it's probably a similar expense in 2021 and 2022 as well if we just cut it in half what's remaining. That might ramp down a little bit as we go through time. Then it's the benefits that offset.

I guess where there's a little confusion on my end was, well, if we have the numbers and we know what you're saying for this fiscal year, why wouldn't we just take the remaining and just divide it by the next two fiscal years and say, "Oh, it's just kind of a standardized $60 million run rate per year." It sounds like what you're saying is, "Oh, no, there are gonna be all these benefits to offset that kind of run rate cost.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

I think we'll start getting benefits in 2022. You've got to compartmentalize 2020 and 2021. It's a significant investment, increased expenses around the same level of impact on the P&L between 2020 and 2021. 2022, there's lesser go lives, and the benefits kick in. You get a nice tailwind in 2022 and 2023.

Rob Dickerson
Analyst, Jefferies

Right. Okay, perfect.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

You mentioned it's like a $60 million run rate. I'm not sure I'm following you on that one, Rob. You know what I mean?

Rob Dickerson
Analyst, Jefferies

Oh, sorry. I just took the midpoint of the $3-$3.50, which is $3.25.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

That's not an ongoing cost.

Rob Dickerson
Analyst, Jefferies

Right. Okay.

Michael Smith
EVP and CFO, McCormick & Company

We have a cost here that's like the proverbial pig in the python.

Rob Dickerson
Analyst, Jefferies

Yeah. Okay, fair. Completely fair. Thank you for clarifying. The other question I had was just on private label profitability. I think you said there was just given a little bit of a mix shift, branded private label in a quarter, maybe early this year. Some of that can be margin mixed positive. I swear I've heard you say historically at times, it might depend on what private label that is because a lot of your private label it seems like overall is usually margin mixed neutral. It's more of a penny profit piece. Just any clarification as to basically on average, is private label usually a little bit lower margin for you or not?

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

I think overall, you've got to understand with private label, we're pretty much focusing on large customers where we get the plant optimization, manufacturing optimizations, the distribution optimization, and it's because we do it as whole service for the customer. From a total margin perspective, the other thing, compared to brand, you don't have things like innovation, marketing, things like that below there. We much rather sell brands. Yeah. From a gross margin standpoint, there's no doubt that private label is lower. I don't want there to be any misunderstanding about that.

Rob Dickerson
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

From, like, a return on investment, it's surprisingly close to brand because these other expenses and it utilizes existing capacities and so on. Private label is certainly lower gross margin.

Rob Dickerson
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. Makes complete sense. Just lastly, in terms of the 2%-4% on the top line, I know you said you don't really want to break out pricing relative to volumes, but in the press release, you do say that you still expect to grow sales via increased distribution, brand marketing, et cetera. Just to be clear, you do expect volumes overall to still be up. It's kind of basic, but that's it. Thanks.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

We're nodding our heads, which you can't see. Yes, we certainly do. We've got a lot of reasons to believe in our growth plans for 2020. Certainly pricing is an element of it. We have confidence that we're gonna be able to continue to drive our undisputed leadership in spices and seasonings. We see continued growth opportunities in condiment and in global flavor, and particularly in those areas where we've got scale. Notwithstanding the issue in China, which we hope is short-term, we think that emerging markets and channels and platforms are a continued growth opportunity and with all of our programs, and especially with all of the digital eCommerce, and social media outreach that we do, we're strengthening our consumer connection. We have a lot of reasons to believe that our growth plans for 2020 are solid.

Rob Dickerson
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, super. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I'll now turn the call over to Lawrence Kurzius for closing remarks.

Lawrence Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO, McCormick & Company

Thanks, everyone, for your questions and for participating on today's call. McCormick is a global leader in flavor, and we're differentiated with a broad and advantaged portfolio, which continues to drive growth. We have a growing and profitable business, and we operate in an environment that is changing at an ever faster pace. We're responding readily to changes in the industry with new ideas, innovation, and purpose. With a relentless focus on growth, performance, and people, we continue to perform strong globally and build long-term shareholder value.

I'm proud of our 2019 financial performance while doing what's right for people, our communities, and the planet, as well as our positive momentum heading into 2020. I'm confident in delivering our 2020 outlook, another year of strong underlying business performance while making significant investment in business transformation to fuel our growth and build both the McCormick of the future and shareholder value. Thank you.

Kasey Jenkins
VP of Investor Relations, McCormick & Company

Thank you, Lawrence, and thanks to all for joining today's call. If you have any further questions regarding today's information, please feel free to contact me. This concludes this morning's call. Have a good day.