Good morning. This is Casey Jenkins, Vice President of McCormick Investor Relations. Thank you for joining today's Q2 earnings call. To accompany this call, we've posted a set of slides at ir.mccormick.com. Currently, all participants are in a listen only mode.
Following our remarks, we will begin a question and answer session. We'll begin with remarks from Lawrence Kurzius, Chairman, President and CEO and Mike Smith, Executive Vice President and CFO. During our remarks, we will refer to certain non GAAP financial measures. These include information in constant currency as well as adjusted operating income, adjusted income tax rate and adjusted earnings per share that exclude the impact of special charges and for 2018 transaction and integration expenses related to the acquisition of our Frank's and French's brand as well as the net non recurring income tax benefit associated with the December 2017 U. S.
Tax reform legislation. Reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release and slides. In our comments, certain percentages are rounded. Please refer to our presentation, which includes the complete information. In addition, as a reminder, today's presentation contains projections and other forward looking statements.
Actual results could differ materially from those projected. Events or other factors. As seen on Slide 2, our forward looking statement also provides information on risk factors that could affect our financial results. It is now my pleasure to turn the discussion over to Lawrence.
Thank you, Casey. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Our solid second quarter results were in line with our expectations. And as we enter the second and most significant half of our year, we are confident in our growth trajectory and that we are well positioned to deliver strong results in 2019.
Our successful execution of our strategies and engagement of employees around the world have driven sales, operating profit and adjusted EPS growth as well as operating margin expansion in both the Q2 year to date. Starting on Slide 4, our broad and advantaged global flavor portfolio continues to position us to meet the demand for flavor around the world and grow our business. Among our second quarter highlights across our portfolio, we drove growth in our consumer segment base business and through new products in all regions, including Zatarain's Meal Solutions and Frozen Entrees and U. K. Rapid recipe mixes.
In the Americas, Frank's Red Hot Sauce continues its strong performance and we're also gaining momentum with Frank's internationally. In our flavor solutions segment, our Americas and EMEA regions drove significant growth in flavors, branded foodservice and condiments with strong contributions from both new products and the base business. We are confident our breadth and reach will continue to differentiate McCormick and will be the foundation of our sales growth as consumers demand for flavor continues to rise. Now let me go into more detail on our Q2 performance as seen on Slide 5, as well as provide some business comments before turning it over to Mike, who will go more in-depth on the quarter end results and discuss our 2019 financial guidance. Starting with our top line for the Q2.
2nd quarter sales were comparable to the year ago period, including a 3% unfavorable impact from currency. In constant currency, sales grew 3% for the total company with both segments growing sales in each of our 3 regions. This growth was attributable to higher volume and product mix as well as pricing and was entirely organic driven by the base business and new products as we had no acquisition impact in the quarter. In our Consumer segment, sales declined 1% including a 3% unfavorable impact from currency. In constant currency, sales grew 2%.
In our flavor solutions segment, sales grew 1% and in constant currency grew 4%. In addition to our top line growth, we grew adjusted operating income and expanded our adjusted operating margin. With our higher sales and cost savings led by our comprehensive continuous improvement program, CCI, we grew the 2nd quarter's adjusted operating 5% or 8% in constant currency and expanded our adjusted operating margin 80 basis points. At the bottom line, our 2nd quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.16 was 14% higher than $1.02 in the Q2 of 2018, driven primarily by our adjusted operating income growth and a lower adjusted tax rate. And this 14% adjusted earnings per share growth includes an unfavorable impact from currency.
Our Q2 results were solid and we continue to expect another year of strong performance in 2019. We are reaffirming our sales outlook and as Mike will explain in detail, we are updating our operating profit outlook and increasing our earnings per share outlook. I'd like to turn now to some business updates with a focus this morning on highlights from our Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments, an update on our business transformation activities and our business momentum that reinforces our confidence in the remainder of the year. Starting on Slide 6 with our Consumer segment. As I just mentioned, we grew constant currency sales 2% with increases in each of our 3 regions.
In the Americas, we grew constant currency sales 2% driven by higher volume and product mix. A late Easter, which delayed the start of grilling season, tempered sales growth for the quarter. We estimate our consumption growth for the quarter, including both measured and unmeasured channels, was 2%. Our IRI data indicates U. S.
Spice and seasoning scanner sales through multi outlets grew 2% for the category and 1% for McCormick Branded. While the late grilling start slowed the category growth, it had a greater impact on our consumption. We again had strong growth in unmeasured channels, including club, e commerce and Hispanic retail chains. Our category management initiatives, effective marketing support, merchandising execution, expanded distribution and new products contributed to drive consumption growth across our Americas consumer portfolio. McCormick branded dry recipe mixes and Stubb's barbecue continued their momentum of consumption and share growth.
Zatarain's frozen items, both base business and new products drove growth. Frank's Red Hot Sauce continued strong performance with distribution gains with total distribution points hitting a record high. And with our category management initiatives and focused marketing support, French's mustard grew consumption and share. We believe these actions will continue to drive consumption and sales growth in the second half of the year. Now turning to Europe, Middle East and Africa, the EMEA region.
Constant currency growth was driven by very strong promotional programs and targeted brand marketing across the region. Expanded distribution and new products were also growth drivers. We had broad based growth across most of the region, including strength in Eastern Europe. We are excited by our continued momentum on new product launches and the successes we've realized to date with more flavors and varieties to come as well as further distribution expansion. In the Asia Pacific region, we've built further momentum with Frank's and French's, particularly in China, India and Australia.
The foundation we continue to establish, while still early days, is driving results. Although growth in the region has been partially impacted by recent macroeconomic pressures in China, our fundamentals across the region remain strong. Turning now to Slide 7. In our Flavor Solutions segment, our sales performance was strong. Our constant currency sales growth was 4% driven by higher volume and product mix on base business as well as new products.
We're continuing to win with our customers through new products, expanded distribution and promotional activities. In the Americas, we drove constant currency sales growth 3%. We had strong sales growth to quick service restaurants as well as in our flavor product category. Our flavor sales were driven by snack seasonings, partially due to new products that are customers promotions and by products that deliver the clean label and better for you attributes our customers are seeking. We also had strong branded foodservice growth driven by increased distribution with national and regional customers, promotional activity with operators and expansion in emerging channels.
In branded foodservice, we continue to realize the benefit of leveraging our full portfolio of McCormick spices and seasonings and Frank's, French's and Cattleman's products across operators. Our strong momentum in EMEA was once again reflected in our 2nd quarter results. Sales growth was outstanding, 9% in constant currency and was broad based across the portfolio both from a product category and customer perspective. We drove sales growth to quick service restaurants partially due to their strong promotional activities and to packaged food companies with new products being a key driver. Turning now to Slide 8.
As we previously discussed, most recently at CAGNY, we're making investments to build the McCormick of the future, including in our global enablement organization to transform McCormick through globally aligned innovative services, enabling the business to grow. As technology provides the backbone for this greater process alignment, information sharing and scalability, we're also making investments in our information systems. We have progressed our ERP replacement program and accelerated the transformation of our ways of working. This will enable us to realize the benefits of scalable platform for growth sooner. We have estimated the total cost of our ERP investment to range between $150,000,000 $200,000,000 from 2019 through the anticipated completion of our global rollout in fiscal 2021.
The capital spend portion is estimated to be $90,000,000 to $120,000,000 and program expenses $60,000,000 to $80,000,000 Mike will discuss this further in his remarks. Next, as we're at the midpoint of the year, I'd like to share a few comments about the momentum we're carrying into the balance of the year. Our largest quarters are ahead of us. And as we have remarked previously, our operating profit growth is weighted toward the second half of our year. As seen on Slide 9, our confidence for the second half is bolstered first by our plans for a strong Americas fall and holiday season, partially driven by a significant increase in brand marketing.
We continue to optimize our brand marketing spend, both in terms of working and non working mix as well as in timing, increasing our effectiveness and getting more value out of each marketing dollar. We have intentionally skewed our brand marketing spend to be heavier later in the year to maximize our ROI and support a key holiday period. Additionally, we have robust brand marketing investments planned in support of the significant array of new products we've launched across all regions during our first half and are now gaining momentum in distribution. And we have exciting additional new product launches in our second half. This new product lineup includes in the U.
S. Street tacos following the successful UK street food launch, complete meal seasonings, a package of complementary seasonings for our consumers' protein, vegetables and starch and Thai Kitchen coconut milk in a resealable tetra package. In EMEA, in addition to flavor and geographic extensions, we'll be launching premium grinders and in China we're launching a full range of thick texture salad dressings and light meal sauces. Our confidence is also driven by new distribution we've successfully secured realizing the benefits of distribution gained throughout the first half of the year across both our Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments. And in Flavor Solutions, we expect continued momentum and wins with our customers through new products and promotional activities.
Finally, as we've mentioned previously, we will be lapping several one time items, which impacted us unfavorably in late 2018, such as the unusual 4th quarter impacts we had in the Americas Consumer business and our move to new global headquarters. We're excited about our plans and confident in delivering strong sales growth in our second half as well as significant profit realization while continuing to invest in the business. Now I'd like to provide a few summary comments as seen on Slide 10 before turning it over to Mike. At the foundation of our sales growth is rising consumer demand for flavor. We are aligned with the consumers' increased interest in bolder flavors, demand for convenience and focus on fresh natural ingredients as well as with emerging purchase drivers such as greater transparency around the sourcing and quality of food.
With this increased interest, flavor continues to be an advantaged global category, which combined with our execution against effective strategies will drive strong results. We have a solid foundation and in an environment that continues to be dynamic and fast paced, we are ensuring we remain agile, relevant and focused on sustainable growth. Our experienced leaders and employees are executing against our strategies which are designed to build long term value for our shareholders. Our 2nd quarter financial results across both our Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments contributed to a great first half of the fiscal year. Our fundamentals are strong and we're confident the initiatives we have underway position us to continue our growth trajectory.
We're balancing our resources and efforts to drive sales, whether work to lower costs to build fuel for growth and higher margin while making the investments in our future. We have confidence in our updated fiscal year outlook and we are well positioned to deliver another strong year in 2019. We remain excited as we enter our second half and continue to drive results. Around the world, McCormick employees are driving our momentum and success, and I thank them for their efforts and engagement. Thank you for your attention, and it is now my pleasure to turn it over to Mike for additional remarks on our updated 2019 outlook.
Thanks, Lawrence, and good morning, everyone.
As Lawrence indicated, we delivered solid second quarter results in line with our expectations. I'll begin with a discussion of our results and then follow with details of our full year 2019 financial outlook. Starting on Slide 12, we grew sales 3% in constant currency. And as Lawrence mentioned earlier, this was entirely organic growth driven by the base business and new products as we had no acquisition impact in the quarter. Both our Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments delivered top line constant currency growth in each of our 3 regions.
The Consumer segment grew sales 2% in constant currency. This growth was driven by all three regions and was attributable to expanded distribution, new products and pricing. On Slide 13, consumer segment sales in the Americas rose 2% in constant currency versus the Q2 of 2018. This increase was driven by higher volume and product mix, including Zatarin's products, Frank's Red Hot sauces, branded extracts and our branded Hispanic products, partially tempered by the delayed grilling season start. In EMEA, constant currency consumer sales were up 1% from a year ago.
Higher volume and product mix were driven by new products, distribution gains and promotional activities. This growth was partially offset by a decline in private label as well as pricing actions, including those related to planned trade promotional activity for new products. We grew consumer sales in the Asia Pacific region 3% with growth in India and Australia driven by our marketing programs as well as expanded distribution. Additionally, China pricing actions were partially offset by related volume impacts as well as the macroeconomic pressures Lawrence mentioned earlier. Turning to our Flavor Solutions segment on Slide 16.
We grew 2nd quarter constant currency sales 4% with growth in all three regions led by strength in EMEA. In the Americas, flavor solutions constant currency sales increased 3% with broad based growth across the portfolio, excluding a decline in bulk ingredients. New products, expanded distribution and our customers' promotional activities all contributed to the sales increase. In the EMEA, we grew flavor solution sales 9% in constant currency across both packaged food companies and quick service restaurants, partially due to their promotional activity. This growth was driven by new products, pricing and base business volume growth and spanned all categories.
In the Asia Pacific region, flavor solution sales in constant currency grew 2% versus the year ago period as higher sales to quick service restaurants were partially driven by the timing of the promotional activities. Across both segments, adjusted operating income, which excludes special charges and for 2018, the transaction and integration costs related to the acquisition of our Frank's and French's brands rose 5% in the 2nd quarter versus the year ago period, and excluding the impact of unfavorable currency rose 8%. Adjusted operating income in the Consumer segment rose to $138,000,000 a 7% increase. Adjusted operating income in the Flavor Solutions segment rose to $77,000,000 a 2% increase. In constant currency, adjusted operating income increased 9% in the Consumer segment and 5% in the Flavor Solutions segment.
In both segments, the increase was primarily driven by CCI led cost savings, higher sales and lower brand marketing expenses. The impact of these drivers in the flavor solutions segment was partially offset by an unfavorable transactional impact of foreign currency exchange rates as well as unfavorable mix related to a sales shift in quick service restaurants from limited time offers to core menu items. As seen on Slide 21, in the Q2, we increased gross profit margin 30 basis points year on year driven by CCI led cost savings. Our selling, general and administrative expense as a percentage of net sales decreased by 50 basis points from the Q2 of 2018. This decrease was primarily driven by lower brand marketing investments, which as Lawrence mentioned earlier, is partially driven by timing.
And through our new marketing excellence organization, we are increasing our efficiency and speed as well as realizing brand marketing CCI through the creation of in house services and consolidated media buys. As a reminder, while our first half brand marketing is lower than last year, we are planning to spend brand marketing comparable to 2018, partially by reinvesting our continued marketing excellence cost savings and non working media spend reductions into working media. Therefore, we are planning brand marketing increases in our second half. SG and A leverage gained from CCI's cost savings initiatives and a onetime global benefit plan alignment was offset by transformation expenses driven by our ERP platform replacement. In fiscal year 2019, we expect the ERP expenses to be concentrated in our second and third quarters.
The combination of the gross margin expansion and the overall SG and A leverage resulted in an adjusted operating margin expansion of 80 basis points for the Q2 of 2019. Turning to income taxes on Slide 22. Our 2nd quarter adjusted effective income tax rate was 18.9% as compared to 22.2% in the year ago period. Our 2nd quarter adjusted rate was favorably impacted by discrete tax items, principally due to stock option exercises. As we have discussed in previous quarters, favorable tax rate impacts of option exercises are partially offset by payroll and social related taxes, which unfavorably impact operational profit.
Considering the year to date favorable impact from discrete items, we now expect our full year 2019 adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 21%. There can be volatility in that rate quarter to quarter due to the unpredictability of discrete items, changes to our forecasted mix of earnings and interpretation of regulations continuing to be released clarifying the impacts of the 2017 U. S. Tax Act. Income from unconsolidated operations was $10,000,000 compared to $7,000,000 in the Q2 of 2018, a 28% increase, driven by excellent performance by our McCormick to Mexico joint venture.
For 2019, we now expect a high single digit increase in our income from unconsolidated operations. At the bottom line, as shown on Slide 24, Q2 2019 adjusted earnings per share was $1.16 up 14% from $1.02 for the year ago period, primarily due to growth in our operating performance, including from our joint ventures and a lower adjusted income tax rate and this increase included an unfavorable impact from currency. The company continues to generate strong cash flow. On Slide 25, we summarize highlights for cash flow and the quarter end balance sheet. Our cash flow provided from operations was $314,000,000 through the Q2 of 2019 compared to $235,000,000 in the first half of twenty eighteen.
Our strong operating cash flow was driven by higher operating income and our continued working capital initiatives. As we execute against programs to achieve working capital reductions, including inventory management programs, we continue to see improvements in our cash conversion cycle, finishing the Q2 down 6 days versus our fiscal year end. A portion of this cash was used to pay down $88,000,000 of acquisition debt as the company continues to focus on paying down debt. As we have maintained our disciplined acquisition strategy with a focus on paying down debt, we finished the 2nd quarter with a debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio below 4 times, which is pacing us ahead of our target of 3 times by the end of 2020. So as Lawrence mentioned during the Q1 earnings call, while our priority is paying down debt, it is also time for us to start exploring acquisition opportunities, which represent a key part of our long term growth strategy.
Through the
first half of fiscal twenty nineteen, we returned $151,000,000 of cash to shareholders through dividends and used $54,000,000 for capital expenditures this period. We expect 2019 to be another year of strong cash flow, driven by profit and working capital initiatives. And our priority is to continue to have a balanced use of cash, making investments to drive growth, returning a significant portion to our shareholders through dividends and to pay down debt. Let's now move to our current financial outlook for 2019 on Slide 26. We continue to expect another year of strong performance in 2019 with our broad and advantaged flavor portfolio, effective growth strategies and focus on profit realization.
We are reaffirming our sales outlook and updating our operating profit and earnings per share outlook. We continue to estimate based on prevailing rates, a 2 percentage point unfavorable impact from currency rates on net sales, adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share. We also continue to expect the unfavorable currency will be greater in the first half of the year than in the second half. At the top line, we reaffirm our guidance to grow sales 1% to 3%, which in constant currency is a 3% to 5% projected growth rate. As a reminder, this will be entirely organic growth driven primarily by higher volume and product mix as well as the impact of pricing to offset an anticipated low single digit cost increase.
We continue to project our 2019 gross profit margin to be 25 to 75 basis points higher than in 2018, in part driven by our CCI led cost savings. We are now expecting our adjusted operating income growth to be 6% to 8% from $930,000,000 in 2018, which in constant currency is an 8% to 10% projected growth rate, remaining above our long term objective, and reflects our continued focus on profit realization. Our cost savings target remains approximately $110,000,000 and we expect brand marketing to be comparable to 2018. Our updated adjusted operating income growth rate continues to reflect expected strong performance. The decrease from the outlook we issued last year during our March earnings call reflects the impacts of a classification shift in our ERP spending.
The operating expense headwind related to option exercises, which partially offsets the tax benefit and global developments, including trade and economic conditions in selected countries. As Lawrence mentioned, we have progressed in our ERP replacement program. And while our estimated total 2019 project investment related to this business transformation has remained unchanged, we now expect a lower 2019 capital spend component and higher operating expenses than we had originally expected for 2019. Resulting from this classification shift, we are lowering our 2019 capital spend outlook to approximately $200,000,000 and our 2019 updated operating profit outlook reflects the increased expense. We are excited about this investment to enable us to transform our ways of working and realize the benefits of a scalable growth platform.
We are increasing our guidance for 2019 adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $5.20 to $5.30 which compares to $4.97 of adjusted earnings per share in 2018 and represents a 5% to 7% increase or in constant currency 7% to 9%. This increase reflects the impact of changes I previously mentioned, our updated adjusted operating income outlook, the expected increase in income from growth in our 2019 constant currency outlook for sales, adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share, following record double digit performance across each objective in 2018 and while continuing to invest for future growth. I'd like to now turn it back to Lawrence for some additional remarks before we move to your questions.
Thank you, Mike. Now that Mike has shared our financial results and outlook in more detail, I'd like to recap the key takeaways as seen on Slide 27. We are delivering against our plans both for sales and profit realization and are confident in the momentum of our business. With our year to date results, we have a strong start to the year. Moving into our second half, we're confident in our plans, including brand marketing support, new product launches and new distribution, which will drive further growth.
Our 2019 outlook continues to reflect strong operating performance. And finally, we are sustainably positioned for growth and are continuing to deliver differentiated results while also investing to build the McCormick of the future. Now let's turn to your questions.
Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, good morning everybody.
Good morning, Andrew. Good morning.
Lawrence, I know that last quarter was one of the first in probably a couple of years where McCormick actually gained share in the core spices and seasonings business in the U. S. I know that's something that obviously you've been narrowing the gap quite a bit with the category and then flip to gaining some share. I think your comment in 2Q was that the delayed, the Easter delay around grilling season, I think you worded it a hit McCormick or affected McCormick at a greater rate than, let's say, the category. And so it looked like a little bit of a share loss.
So I'm just trying to get a sense of why that dynamic would have played out from McCormick differently than, let's say, the category. And if there's any change in sort of the cadence of continuing to feel better about share gains going forward?
Right. Sure, Andrew. Well, first of all, it's not that Easter it's not Easter. It's the grilling season that was the issue. Easter fell later in the calendar.
We actually had a great Easter season, but the late Easter did compress the grilling season and that compression of the grilling season impacted our grilling products. And seasonally, our grilling season items, particularly our Grill Mates seasoning blends, are a big part of our business at this time of year. We didn't mention it in our prepared remarks, but it was also an exceptionally wet season. So the quarter was, I think, the 5th wettest on record and May was the 2nd wettest on record. And just the combination of the slow of the delayed grilling season, that compression of the grilling season and some unfavorable weather was a headwind to our GrillMates range.
So that causes the pace behind the category. I think the whole category was somewhat depressed by the compression of that grilling season. We're not the only ones who have a grilling range. And so but we're the market leader and that grill weights range is a big part of our business at this time of year. Category was only up about 2%.
We were only up about 1% in terms of spices and seasonings for the quarter and we lost about 30 basis points of share. Although we're getting into a stronger position from a share gain standpoint, there are going to be some moving parts. I'd say that 30 basis points is not something that we are concerned about that we've had a good strong underlying trend. And I also want to point out that the unmeasured channels are not captured in that and we continue to have very strong growth in the unmeasured channel area that does not come through in that consumption data. I'll also point out that private label also lost share.
So while there have been a lot of concerns about private label in the market, private label is becoming less and less of a factor. So that's not where that came in.
Great. I really appreciate the added color. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citi Research. Please proceed with your question.
Great. Thank you and good morning.
Hey, David. Good morning.
Two questions for me. Just on the operating profit guide down, can you just talk about the environment outside the United States and the impact to your operating profit guidance? And then just a longer term question, Laurence, wanted just to get your sense as to the in home cooking trends. And just I think they're quite positive right now, but wanted to get your sense as to as the U. S.
Unemployment rate remains very, very low, how do you see those in home trends continuing over the course of the kind of medium term? Do you think that the low unemployment would drive people out to the restaurants? Or do you really see in home cooking as a sustainable driver even with this very, very low unemployment rate?
I'm going to let Mike take the front end of that.
Yes. I'll talk about the change in operating profit guidance was really driven primarily by the shift from capital to expense in the ERP side of things. I mean, the global economic environment, as you mentioned, was a small piece of that. But I would just characterize things as volatile right now. I mean, we've talked about how we've had mitigation plans for Brexit and EMEA.
That's on again, off again. It's been longer than we would have thought at this point. We had the Mexico scare about a month ago. We have significant business down there and we have the China slowdown. China had the slowest growth from a GDP perspective in 20 years in their Q1.
So it's really volatile now and we kind of consider that for our ongoing operating profit guidance for this year. But the real change versus our previous guidance is due to just a classification shift on ERP.
And as far as eating out trends, this is a long term trend. Unemployment has been very low for quite a long time. I think that this cooking at home trend is more a characteristic of the millennial generation and is not being driven by economic factors. It's being more driven by a desire for more fresh food and a different kind of lifestyle. And so I think that the unemployment rate I think that, that trend continues intact in the short, medium and long term.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Good morning, Ken. Two questions from me. And if you address this, forgive me, I have a couple of earnings this morning.
But number 1, you're looking for a very big jump in the tax rate in the second half. But historically, you've consistently, I would I think it's fair to say over guided when it comes to taxes, just to be conservative perhaps and which is great, but just to be aligned with history, why shouldn't we model a little bit of a lower tax rate than what you've guided to for the second half? And then my second question is, I wanted to get a sense the economic conditions you mentioned in China, Was that more on the foodservice side, on the retail side? Just wanted to get a little bit more color on exactly what the headwind is there. Thank you.
Ken, it's Mike. I'll talk about the taxes. I mean, we've talked about this in the past. I mean, you're right. Generally, we guide to an underlying tax rate based on regulations and things.
It has gotten a bit volatile the last couple of years when the accounting rules changed around stock option stock option exercises.
And what we try to do is
lay out the underlying. And if there's discrete items like that, that happened, that is favorable to us. And we've seen that through the first half of the year. I mean, one of the things with our stock appreciation over the last couple of years, there's been significant stock option exercises a lot by retirees. And that does also drive some unfavorable from an operating profit perspective and it puts more shares out there too.
So it isn't all something that drops to the bottom line from a tax perspective. But second half, if you do the squeeze, it's 24% to 25%. That is the underlying tax rate. And as we know, with the GILTI tax and other things that are still uncertain from the federal government, could go either way. But I'd look to the past a bit, but we've had, in the last year, real significant discrete items from stock options, which may or may not continue.
And the retiree stock option exercises. I can add some color to that. On China, that's a really good question, Ken. The slowdown there is an economic slowdown in China. As we all know, we suspect that the official figures are probably optimistic and that maybe the slowdown in China is even greater than it would appear from the government statistics that are released.
I'm saying that as nicely as I can. And it is the case that we're seeing the biggest impact in the restaurant sector. In China, our consumer business includes a foodservice component because they share a common distribution channel, particularly in the traditional trade and in the smaller markets. And those foodservice related items are where we're seeing some impact. And anecdotally, we're certainly getting a lot of feedback from our organization in China that it's foodservice and restaurant sales that are slow.
Over in our flavor solutions side of the business, our customers are more focused on core products as a result because they're trying to drive value to their restaurant and bring people in. So I think that the economic conditions are having a greater impact on foodservice and restaurant consumption than on the true retail part of the business where our retails related items continued to show very strong growth and our e commerce business, which is consumer oriented, continues to show really strong growth in that area. There's another compounding factor and that is African swine fever, is starting to show up as a meat shortage and rising meat prices in China, which puts cost pressure on the whole food service sector there because of course that leads over to all the alternative meats as well. And with the resulting price impact to the consumer who's going through different foodservice outlets. So that's a little bit of a longish answer, but it is more foodservice than retail.
Very helpful as always. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning, everyone. So two questions. The first one on the Consumer Americas business and the fact that it was, I guess, negatively affected by the shorter grilling season, maybe the wet weather hit things a little hard this time as well. Does that mean we would expect to go back to a more normal level of sales growth starting next quarter? Is there anything sort of out there that would say it wouldn't sort of start to get back to a more normal level next time?
And then a more specific question on the EMEA flavor solutions business, obviously very strong this time around. Was that largely based on you mentioned the QSR promotions, but was it also new contract wins? I just wanted to get an idea of whether that strength is likely to be sustainable. Thank you, and I'll pass it on.
Hey, Joseph. Thanks, Alexia, and good morning. You got started with your question before we could say hi. The Consumer Americas specifically, first of all, I don't want to apologize too much for the organic growth that we're having there. Some of our peers are reporting right around us and we can see quite a differential between what we're reporting and what they are.
I think that we did have solid organic sales growth, and I don't want us to lose the thread of thought on that. But we are expecting a stronger second half to the year than the first half. And I think that we've been trying to signal that all year along right from the guidance that we gave at the beginning of the year and even in our remarks at the end of Q1. Our marketing spend is the first half, we get the benefit of that in the second half. We have more new products that we're launching in the second half of the year as well.
We are going to be lapping some Americas anomalies in the 4th quarter that we don't expect to repeat. So overall, we are expecting higher organic sales growth in the Americas as we go through the second half. If I could shift gears over to the EMEA flavor solutions business, it's both. So this is a continuation of the strong trend that we saw in the Q1 in that business. In terms of the constant currency growth, it's actually exactly the same as it was in the Q1 and it's driven by the same factors.
We do have some new customer wins, but we also have strong growth with our existing customer base there.
Great. Thank you very much. I'll pass it on.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, good morning.
Hey, Rob. Good morning.
So the guidance for the year has always involved or required a lot of operating leverage, a little bit less now with the operating income down 1%. Can you talk a little bit more detail about the transformation spending that you're doing, the ERP? And how can you give us some specific details on how that can release more cost savings going forward? You mentioned some efficiencies, but are there any headcount implications heading into the next few years from what you're doing with ERP? Thanks.
Hey, Rob, this is Mike. I mean, this is a 3 year initiative. We're in year 1 or 3 years. And we laid out the capital and expense portions of that, that we'll realize over the 3 years. We did talk about the shift, and it's really primarily a lot of our expenses happening in the 2nd Q3 of this year.
Then it will shift to more of a capital side of things. But really, we're focusing on this business transformation of ERP as really a growth initiative. And it will give us efficiencies, no question, as we standardize processes around the world, as we do things one way around the world. But really to make sure we can focus our resources on growing business, bringing in acquisitions much easier. In the past, as we brought in acquisitions, it's been tough and it takes a lot of effort from the organization.
So I think that's something I'd focus from a growth perspective. And as we continue to get more and more scale to be a bigger company, this is really an investment in our business to get us to the next level.
I'll add to that a little bit, Rob, and that is that this is linked also our global enablement program where we're simplifying our processes, aligning them globally so we can centralize. And that definitely both enables us to be more agile and grow and it also does absolutely result in cost savings because we do get benefit from that scale. So this is a technology enabling part of that global enablement project.
As part
of this, we're also this technology upgrade, we are making the migration to the next generation of SAP S4HANA. The whole industry is going to have to go to that. Some of us have, but most of us have not yet started that journey. It is. If you're doing it on a pretty brisk pace as we are, a minimum of a 3 year project.
SAP goes out of service in 2025, we want to be well ahead of that curve and see this as an opportunity rather than as a cost that we have to bear down the road.
Okay. A quick follow-up though. I thought I heard you say that you're in a better position to make acquisitions now. Can you did I hear that correctly? And if so, what capabilities are you focused on acquiring?
As we move down towards a 3x debt to EBITDA, I think that was what we were saying. As we get closer to our commitment that allows us to start looking at acquisitions.
Exactly. We're not and the kind of acquisitions that we would look for be consistent with what we've done and messaged in the past, great flavor businesses, great consumer brands that build our consumer flavor business, flavor solutions, businesses that add flavor obviously don't dilute our
growth. Got it. So 3 times is really the trigger?
Well, I wouldn't say that's the trigger, but we've said we've always committed to this is that we're going to get to 3 times by the end of 2020. And as we get as we're closing in on that, we're not going to start working on deals once we get to 3. Right now, we've got a debt to EBITDA ratio that starts with 3. And we're on track to end up with
Yes, the back end of
the year, as you know Rob,
is the heavy cash flow. By the end of the year, we'll be we will be in sight.
Yes, yes. That's what I thought. Okay, thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Good morning, Adam. Hey, good morning, Adam.
So a question on the flavor solutions business and really centered on the margin side. Just can you quantify the transactional FX headwinds that you're facing there? Just in the spirit of the question is first half organic growth in the business is a little bit north of 5% and margins on a year on year basis are up 10 basis points, 20 basis points. And I'm just trying to think about the operating leverage within that mix. Doesn't seem like it's a headwind, especially if you talk about the bulk ingredients business being down.
So I'm just trying to make sure I'm understanding kind of some of the cost or margin pressures that are hitting you there and how to think about that going forward.
So I think if you think about it, there's a couple of factors that are actually hitting us on the flavor solutions side. The transactional FX, as you said, which has been hitting us the last six months of last year and the 1st 6 months of this year, we'll get into a more favorable FX comparison in the second 6. So that should be an acceleration there. We're also, as Lawrence mentioned, in Asia, particularly China, as we're kind of having a negative mix issue right now as the QSR is focused more on their core products versus LTOs or limited time offers. We make more margin obviously on limited time offers.
So but we see that again, that ebbs and flows. And as economies recover, we think they'll go back to more LTOs. And we're actually seeing a little bit of that in some of the areas. So I see an acceleration of our operating margin on the flavor solution side in the second half as those clouds go away.
Yes, particularly that FX is going to be less unfavorable in the second half. Now we will temper both of our remarks with the caveat that this has really been a volatile environment. And we're but the FX outlook that we have right now, we should be getting into comparisons that are pretty close year on year.
Okay. And then just quickly on the JV, you took up the range for earnings growth in that line item. Is that just a reflection of the first half performance where you're above the high end of the kind of upper single digit growth? Or is the full year or is the back half actually
improving there too? Yes, if I can jump in on that. So we're having really strong sales growth in our BeqMex JV and that's falling through to profitability. So the performance year to date there has been really good and we have positive outlook on that. So originally, our outlook on our JVs as a group was flat.
We're in a pretty strong place right now. And so we have a it's a little bit of both. We have great results year to date and we expect that to continue. And I also wanted to really call us out because a lot of times we don't talk about the unconsolidated operations, but those are real operating results. We are not passive operators of our unconsolidated JVs.
Just in the last few weeks, both Mike and I have been down there multiple times. These are businesses that we're actively engaged in and doing very well.
Okay. I appreciate the color. I'll pass it on. Thanks.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, good morning.
Hey, Chris. Good morning.
Hi. I just had two questions, if I could. I want to follow-up on an earlier discussion of obviously a bit of a delay in the grilling season. I guess I wanted to be clear, is that something you think you get back, you get those sales back, say, starting in Q3 that this is sort of pent up demand by consumers that got pushed out a bit?
Is that the way to look at it? Or is
it more of potential for lost sales given promotional changes there? No, I think that if I could I know
you said you had 2 parts. I'm going to just jump in and answer. I think the consumption that didn't happen, didn't happen. It was that compression is also something that we've had discussions about with our customers as well. So, there was a lost merchandising activity.
The customers couldn't get their Easter promotions down fast enough to get the grilling promotion display materials up. And the consumers didn't consume because remember we talked about through the scanner that the GrillMates, the grilling part of our seasoning business is the part that was slow. That's consumption that is that's really lost.
But it's something we planned internally.
Everyone knows what NISI was going to hit.
We've moved some advertising into the Q3. You're going to see a nice upspend in the Q3, which hopefully will continue to drive good consumption.
Okay, great. Thank you. And then in relation to the gross margin, how would you characterize cost inflation and pricing? Are those 2 roughly offset each other? You did mention that CCI was the main driver of your gross margin improvement.
And maybe related to that, in terms of the CCI savings, are they more gross margin focused this year versus SG and A? Or do you have any color there, just would be interested in that?
Yes. I wouldn't say from a CCI perspective. We haven't seen a large shift between cost of goods sold CCI or SG and A CCI. I think from a pricing perspective and a cost perspective, as we said at the beginning of the year, this is a relatively benign environment for us, low single digit cost inflation. And we've taken some pricing where we needed to do that this year, but it's a relatively benign side.
So the CCI is able to work for us better to drop through to the operating profit margin.
And we have some ongoing discussions on price on specific items as well that are always in progress.
Yes. Okay. Got it. Thanks so much.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rob Dickerson with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Great. Thank you so much.
Good morning,
Rob. Hey, good morning. Just kind of an overview question on guidance in the back half, given all the questions that have already been asked. So it seems like what you're saying, kind of what I'm hearing is, there was maybe a little bit extra spend on the ERP system upgrade, I guess, right? I guess the shift to how that is kind of
It's a shift, Rob. It's going from capital to expense. If you notice, and we talked about it in the script, our capital range was $200,000,000 to $220,000,000 We've shifted that down to $200,000,000 now for the year. So capital is down, expense is up. Think about it that way.
The same money, same cash, one is expense.
Right. So and I mean at times, I actually am very ignorant. I do admit that. So could you just explain that simplistically so everybody on the call can take under the guidance? Yes.
Okay.
That's fine. I mean, I
can talk for hours about the accounting around this, but I won't. But it's one of the things when we came into the year and as Lars talked about in the January call, we were starting to engage our system integrator to look at the scope of the project, the timing. And we had an estimate of what the total cost would be over those couple of years. And based on what we knew at the time, based on the phases of the project and what is capital, what is expense from an accounting perspective, we took our best crack at it. Once the system integrator got in and put the plan together, we realized that, okay, there's a little bit more expense upfront than we thought, a little less capital based on the work that they're doing on the ERP design, the implementation, all that sort of stuff.
So that's where what you see here, total costs are going to be about the same. It's just a shift between the two based on the accounting rules and better information now.
Fair enough. Okay. Good answer. And then just secondly and simplistically, it sounds like what you're saying is in the back half, given it sounds like there's been a little margin mix pressure, not a lot, but like you said, and kind of restaurants relative to kind of base core retail in Asia. Let's ignore the ERP piece for a second.
But then in the back half, maybe some of that loosens, we'll see, but it's also there's an FX reversal, not a full reversal, but less of a headwind. And then it also sounds like maybe as you're coming out of this kind of late wet post Easter grilling season that maybe with marketing dollars you can improve velocities and hopefully also improves the margin mix. Because when I just look at the guide, right, we could talk about some of the shift in the grilling season in the quarter or what happened in China. But quite frankly, your top line is actually still pretty strong and you're exactly in line for the most part where you were relative to Q1 on a tier stack basis. So it is it seems like it's more of a margin expansion expectation in the back half versus a big top line acceleration relative to the first half.
Is that a fair summary?
Yes. I think you got that right, Robin. Remember, the 4th course and the challenges, we're going to have really favorable mix in the back half compared to 2018 based on what we saw last year. And the other thing that someone mentioned CCI before CCI builds during the year, so that does help margin also.
Right. And Rob, I'm glad you made that point about the sales growth being solid and look, took just a step back on the whole overall picture because like last quarter, this was really a solid no drama quarter. We put together 2 pretty undramatic solid performances year over year. We had solid sales growth in this quarter at nearly 3% in constant currency, which compares very strongly to our peers. Through the first half, we're a little over 3.5% on all of sales growth, constant currency, all of it organic.
And as we've signaled all year, we expect a stronger second half. We had good operating profit and growth and margin expansion. It's actually in line with our algorithm. Quarter by quarter, we're putting together a strong 2019. We're very confident in our outlook on the second half.
And I think that's sort of some really good points you raised.
Guys, thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Kurzius for any final comments.
Great. Hey, thank you everyone for your questions and for participating on today's call. McCormick is a global leader in flavor and we're differentiated with a broad and advantaged portfolio which continues to drive growth. We have a growing and profitable business and operate in an environment that's changing at an ever faster pace. We are responding readily to changes in the industry with new ideas, innovation and purpose.
With a relentless focus on growth, performance and people, we continue to perform strong globally and build shareholder value. Our 2nd quarter financial results both across our Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments was strong. We have confidence in our fiscal year outlook and we're well positioned to deliver another strong year in 2019.
Thank you, Lawrence, and to all for joining today's call. If you have any further questions regarding today's information, you can reach us at 410771 7140. This concludes this morning's conference call. And for all of you in the U. S, enjoy your 4th July holiday next week.