If we could just find our seats, we will kick off our our next fireside chat. So welcome back, everyone, to our fireside chat with McCormick & Company. With me today are CEO Brendan Foley and CFO Mike Smith. Just a reminder, McCormick will not be doing a breakout as the company is in its quiet period. Welcome, gentlemen. Truly great to be back with you both here in Boston. Brendan, also congratulations on recently becoming CEO of McCormick. I know McCormick prides itself on leadership development, succession planning. I know the board takes a very thoughtful and deliberate approach in thinking about succession over a multi-year timeframe, proof of which can be seen in you having been named president last year. So we appreciate you being here. Great.
Maybe to start off, Brendan, you've been at McCormick for almost a decade, but it's really been, I think, less than 10 days since you've taken on the CEO role. Can you give us a sense of how you're approaching the opportunity, where you're currently spending your time, and sort of what you're most focused on?
Thank you, Andrew, for the introduction. Just to, you know, sort of first start off with, I'm really honored and humbled to be leading what is a great company. I have been at McCormick almost a decade and part of the Management Committee since 2015, and I've worked really closely with both Lawrence and Mike, really shaping our strategies, the decisions that we've made across the business, that kind of lead us, you know, sort of, over the last couple, you know, sort of last decade of performance has really been, you know, quite strong. So you should see, you know, in my opinion, just a real streamline, seamless streamline into sort of this, this, you know, next, period of time for McCormick.
What you will see, I think this is kind of important to really lay out, is a measure of consistency in who we are and how we go about things. You know, our strategic pillars remain the same. They're about growth, performance, and people, and we'll remain a global leader in flavor. That's our focus, is the flavor, you know, segment, categories, et cetera. And we'll also continue to invest in and support the two segments we operate in, which is both Consumer, you know, and Flavor Solutions. We'll continue to capitalize on the right opportunities out there, especially with regard to, you know, staying consistent with consumer trends overall. We'll also, you know, remain very, you know, disciplined from the standpoint of long-term financial performance and discipline in our capital allocation, you know, overall.
I also want to reinforce McCormick's objectives, long-term objectives, are gonna remain the same. And just to remind everyone what that is, you know, on the top line, it's 4%-6% in net sales, you know, dropping down to operating profit of 7%-9% in operating profit growth. And then it, it'll drop down with some leverage into, you know, earnings per share growth of 9%-11%. And compared to most CPG and flavor company peers, this is, you know, best-in-class performance, and those remain still our long-term objectives. I'm really passionate about our two segments, both Consumer and Flavor Solutions. This is what really differentiates McCormick out in the marketplace and what really gives us that competitive advantage, you know, in the industry. It's our scale, our insights, our technology.
You know, what we've seen, and I've seen this firsthand, just over time, it creates meaningful difference and competitive advantage, I think, for us out there in the marketplace. The key areas that I'm gonna focus on, though, moving forward, are, I think, really important as we go into this next, you know, period of time. The first is, we're gonna continue to focus on expanding our system of competitive advantage, and I'll probably get a chance to tell you more about that later today, but that's gonna be an important element, as we keep building that competitive moat on our business. The second is that we need to strengthen our global leadership in our core categories, and that's gonna be an important priority, especially as we look to, you know, drive both volume and market share growth.
That, that impacts our Consumer business, where we're, you know, drive it with more innovation and renovation and even more, you know, continued sort of best-in-class levels of, of brand advertising and category management. But it'll also, you know, extend over to our, our flavor business, too, as we really increase our scale at the global level to, to compete as a top flavor house overall. And you'll kind of see us talk a little bit more about heat. Maybe we'll get a chance to talk about that today. The other things I would say is, we're gonna also focus a lot on accelerating our own digital transformation. This is a great opportunity for us to just operate even more effectively, operationally, get our work done faster, et cetera, but that's going to be an important priority as we look ahead.
And then two other things, just to wrap it up. That will be driving profitable growth and continuing to drive even higher returns from our investments. And then lastly, it kind of really is all foundationally about people. And so we're gonna lean into what is our strength, and that is our culture, to really build that next generation of leaders behind Mike and myself, and also capabilities as we look ahead. But I'm really excited and confident about, you know, sort of the long-term, you know, outlook on McCormick. It's been strong for the last decade. I continue to expect it will be, and moving forward in the next. That's really because we're gonna continue to kind of be consistent with the things that are working for us and also, you know, add these new areas of focus.
Great. Thank you. So McCormick has started 2023 with strong results following a more difficult 2022. I guess, were there any fundamental changes entering the year? How do you feel the business is performing overall at this point, including where you stand in your recovery in China?
I'll take that, Andrew, and thanks for having us again.
Sure.
What a difference a year makes!
That's for sure, in many ways.
Yeah, in many ways, you're right. We're really happy with our strong start to this year. You know, from a fundamentals perspective, as Brendan just laid out, really no major changes. If anything, during COVID and during last year, we really reinvested in capabilities and our brands. We didn't cut costs like that. For growth investments, we wanted to keep driving those because we know that pays off in the end.
B ut what we did do is really kind of double down on cost. And we have, as we talked last year at the conference, we identified, you know, during COVID, we added a good chunk of supply chain costs to service our customers, and we went through a systematic way to attack that. You heard us talk about the Global Operating Effectiveness initiative, where we identified $125 million of cost, both in our supply chain, but also our SG&A optimization. This really helped us get off to a great start in 2023. You know, we also implemented our pricing, as we said, you know, we were, you know, we have low- to mid-double-digit inflation this year.
We took pricing to address that and also caught up with the cost inflation, which was near 20% last year. So really, a lot of changes in the environment there. So we really have had a good first half, strong sales growth, margin expansion, which we really like. You know, we're only five days into the fourth quarter now, so we're reporting results in a couple of weeks. But as you've seen from scanner data, our U.S. Consumer Business continues to have solid results in the categories we're in. Europe continues to be very strong for us, which is great.
Mm-hmm.
China, as you've read in the headlines, continues to have a softer recovery than most people, including us, have expected. However, we've been in China for 40-plus years and are really bullish long term on there. Have scale over there. It's a very profitable country for us also. But, you know, no change in fundamental strategy, really focused on profit realization and cash.
Yep, great. Maybe we can dive into consumer a bit, in terms of consumer behavior anyway, especially in the Americas. And what you're seeing and expecting in terms of volume trends and when we should expect a return to positive volume growth?
Well, I'll make a number of comments here, and Mike, jump in if you have anything to add. You know, first speaking, just broadly in terms of what we're seeing, we still see a very pressured, financially stretched consumer. And in many ways they're really driving towards value in a lot of their decisions across the store. But we're also seeing, though, at the same time, just that elevated, you know, element of cooking at home, it's still there, you know, compared to pre-pandemic levels. And it's really driven by a lot of positive, healthy things, whether people are just trying to, you know, eat healthier or cook, you know, with more, you know, healthy, flavorful cooking. You know, we're seeing still a lot of that. And, you know, overall, I would say that those attitudes remain really positive.
What's interesting over, over the course of the last four years, people have indicated they actually have more fun cooking right now, and I think part of it's because they just learned new skills, and they're finding ways of doing this at home. So that's been great. And then we'll also talk about, while we don't call it a trend, it's more of like a flavor profile. We see more and more acceleration in, you know, spicy and hot foods. And so that's kind of broadly how we might look at, you know, sort of consumer trends. Now, though, more specifically, if you think about from a macro level across center of store categories, you are definitely seeing, you know, still declines in unit volume.
Mm-hmm.
They've been going on for some time, and that's inclusive of private label. You know, our research and all of the insights, and we do this every quarter, we're doing, you know, sort of omnibus surveys with our consumers. You know, what you see is definitely consumers are making more trips to the store, but they're buying less categories per trip, and you see that happen out there. And they're buying mostly what they need. It's a lot less stocking up than what you would have seen in the past, especially compared to the last, you know, two years. And in some numbers I've seen, it's, you know, it's down 10, you know, down quite a bit overall. And the other dynamic that we're seeing is there are just fewer items in consumers' pantries-
Mm-hmm.
You know, overall. So, you know, that's kind of the condition, the behaviors that we see just from a purchasing standpoint. But the consumers are favoring those categories, which really expand a meal, sort of stretch that dollar, and also for a lower cost, you know, per serving. So this is what we're seeing, I think, you know, sort of across a lot of center store categories. As it relates, though, to McCormick, the categories we compete in, we think we really benefit, you know, and we're advantaged in this regard overall. Our categories tend to really benefit because this is what consumers use to really, they're not gonna sacrifice on flavor, but they do wanna expand that meal.
They do wanna do it for, you know, a lower cost, and McCormick has a real advantage here in terms of delivering that flavor and those brands that consumers seek and also do it for pennies per serving. So we really think we have a real value message that we've been driving quite a lot in the last year, and we think it's resonating. You, you see that overall in category performance. Now, moving specifically to our own performance, what you'll see is that, just in this last quarter since we reported, I think it's the second quarter, we continue to see, on a consumption basis, sequential improvement in dollars, units, volume, and also TDPs.
So we really believe this is a function of just a lot of our strategies and our brand marketing and our category management taking real effect, you know, out there on the shelves. And also in our spices and extracts, part of our business, which tends to get a lot of attention from everyone, we're seeing the same sequential improvement, you know, overall. It just backs up to, you know, like unit volume, just across our category or, our portfolio or even just in spices and extracts. It's -- we're just seeing it continue to improve quarter- to- quarter overall. And so that's something that we really are pretty happy about in terms of materials.
Like we said on the quarter call, we still believe this. You know, we're gonna have sequential improvement in volume. We think in the second half, +1% to -1% overall. Not a material difference between the segments, but we still feel good about that.
Yeah. What we're also seeing, as many of you know, we launched a lot of new packaging around our core line. It is starting to flow through on shelf. We're starting to see that. What's great is we're already starting to see velocities increase, you know, where it is. And that's before we turned on national advertising, which actually just started in August. So we're liking what we're seeing in the early indicators in terms of the performance of that package or what we thought. We've also launched this new Lawry's line in spices and extracts. And as we continue to build out distribution, this even includes in the discount channel, every place it goes into, we start to see unit and share growth, you know, coming from that.
And so we're really encouraged, I think, by the performance of that in this context of that pressured consumer. And so we like how that's performing. You know, and I would say overall, we're really happy with our innovation and how it's performing on shelf right now. You know, we talked about doing more innovation than we did in the prior year, and we're seeing the benefit of that overall. Overall, I would say is those accounts that are executing both our category management plans, as well as our innovation, are seeing even better trends than even we are at a national level. So it gives us real encouragement and, you know, we're happy with that overall.
Just like Mike said, we do expect our volume trends in the second half to be improved versus the first half, and I would say we're happy with those trends overall. We believe they reflect what is advantage categories, but also it's about our execution in the marketplace. Brand marketing, category management, innovation, you know, all those levers are really working in the right direction, so we feel like we're moving in the right direction overall.
Great. Thank you. McCormick is bringing the heat, so to speak, by building a global heat platform-
Mm-hmm.
That really spans across both segments. I guess, what unique advantages do you have to win in heat? How will it support your long-term growth objectives?
This is a lot of fun to talk about. First of all, it's really... Heat is more than just hot sauce for us, and if I would ask you to take one thing away today, that would probably be it. But it's also a growth accelerator for our entire portfolio, both in Consumer and also in Flavor Solutions. Another way to think about heat is, it's another reason to believe in our long-term algorithm, because it really does drive that increased growth rate. It's also, we don't look at it as a trend; it's a flavor profile.
You know, it's really driving accelerated trends, obviously, in categories that are exclusively defined by heat, like hot sauce, but even in categories like spices and seasonings, where you see an item that's defined, let's say, by heat, like red pepper flakes or something like that, it's also growing at an accelerated rate, too. So we see that in more than just one category overall. Across the store, what you'll see is that, you know, over the last three years, we've kind of done a lot of research around this, is that spicy edible units are growing 10 x faster in center-of-store categories than non-spicy. So it isn't just a fad. This thing's been going on for a while, and something that we've been focused on for well over a decade.
Now, you know, we have meaningful expertise in heat, and it stretches everything from our global sourcing to supply chain and manufacturing to R&D technology. And just to illustrate with an example, I'll kind of jump to a maybe a sort of not part of our Flavor Solutions business. We have a technology called FlavorCell, and it allows us to sort of do this controlled release from an encapsulation standpoint. And we're able to time and deliver flavor and heat based on when the customer wants it to come through in their product. And so we're able to really apply not only just I think the science and technology, but directly to what customers are coming to us for, and we tend to get a lot of briefs when it comes to heat.
We also have strong performance overall in, in this part of our business. What I would tell you is that when we take a look at, you know, that which we're defining as heat across our portfolio, it's growing three times faster than those categories or those products that we would call non-heat overall, so you see an accelerated growth rate. The other thing is, it's really stretching across both segments. We've estimated around 20% of our total net sales are really derived with something that's kind of influenced by heat, and only half of that is hot sauce. It really kind of gives you kind of the breadth of our portfolio that's really influenced by heat, is more than just something that would seem, you know, obviously, incredibly obvious.
And, you know, what we're also seeing is just even over the last three years, whether it's in our Consumer segment or in our Flavor Solution segment, you know, we've been driving about a 12% compound annual growth rate just from, you know, heat overall. So it has a real, I think, significant impact as we're looking forward to the future, and it's a tailwind for us. And this will only continue to sort of continue, you know, driving growth, because it is really being driven by younger generations. We believe these are categories with a tailwind for us, and we just plan to continue to execute against it. And I would tell you that I'm really, energized by what our organization is doing right now to kind of really build out that heat platform.
It's pretty exciting, and we look forward to talking more about it.
Within Flavor Solutions, I guess what differentiates McCormick from other flavor houses, and how does it help you win business and drive volume growth? I know you've got some really big aspirations in what you can do in Flavor Solutions going forward.
I think the best way to describe what makes us different than other players out there is, we're 100% focused on flavor and only flavor, which is unlike a lot of other flavor companies, so that remains our sole focus. But, you know, differentiation kind of goes beyond that. We're culinary based in everything that we do and have been. That's our legacy, and our legacy is in that culinary foundation, but also it's a combination, which is our experience with the natural ingredients that we source. And that together, I think, gives us a real advantage and understanding in terms of how to deliver that flavor experience, you know, through food. We also have just unmatched breadth and reach, you know, sort of at a global level.
We deal with a very broad base of customers, as well as a broad range of applications at a global level. We're also diversifying, you know, sort of our approach into this side of our business, and we're really winning and gaining share with a lot of new customers, especially in categories like alcoholic beverage, performance nutrition, and savory snacks. These are areas that add to our growth rate because they're also growing in the categories they're in within center of store. So we see that breadth and reach as really being an advantage for us overall. The one thing is, when you see this combination of both our Consumer and our Flavor Solutions segment, it really gives us an advantage in consumer insights.
You know, we see this play out day to day as an advantage overall in the marketplace because that, that combination and that connection of insights between both sides of our business, not only do we leverage it for, you know, our own, our own Consumer Business, but also for our customers' brands. That gives us, I think, a, you know, sort of leverage when we talk with customers overall. We also have a passion for a real differentiated customer experience, where a lot of our customers in flavor, and this is true of the industry, are looking for speed, agility, and be able to bring forward solutions that allow their brands to win in the marketplace. We've been really successful with doing that.
We have a whole, you know, sort of our team, from R&D to sales to, you know, operations, are forward-facing with the customer there. So they have real access to every one of our experts overall. And so as we, you know, as we take a harder look at this customer experience, what we've been doing, and we've learned this as a best practice with some of our acquisitions, is we regularly survey our customers in terms of their own experience. And we did a, another recent version of the survey, and approximately 90% of our customers would recommend us to someone else within the industry. And they know that we're gonna come forward with that market and also that product knowledge that allows to help their brands grow, too. So this has been an important area for us.
And then I think the foundation of our technologies really supports and kind of closes out this level of differentiation that we have. And this is something we're really proud of, and we have a number of them. And often in these conferences, we try to give you a sort of a taste of one or two of them just so that, you know, you can get the sense of what we're talking about. One of them that I'll mention today is called Flavor Real, and it's our, you know, answer to what customers are looking for in terms of clean flavor technology.
It's our ability to kind of really find a key attribute of a flavor in a natural ingredient, and then translate that, you know, as something that can really, you know, be applied to an ingredient label, as a clean flavor. I'll use an example. You know, we'll take cinnamon, for example, and if a customer wants a cinnamon note in their product overall, you know, we can take a look at it, 'cause we source that natural ingredient, and look at those key attributes and pull out what we need as an extract, and then be able to put that into the customer's product. And then on the label, it's gonna say something like, "extract of cinnamon," as opposed to "cinnamon flavor." And so that's the difference in terms of what clean technology looks like on the shelf.
The other one that we have is called True Taste, and this one is something that's a little bit newer for us, but it, it's really, you know, a proprietary global patent that we have in terms of converting liquids into powders and, you know, typically called spray drying overall. What happens in that process usually is you tend to lose flavor and color because of the amount... the high amount of heat that you have to apply to the process. We've solved for that, very safely in, in this technology that we're bringing forward, which allows us to really retain more flavor and retain more color because we're able to do that at lower temperatures, you know, overall. There's also a nice side benefit from, from that.
It allows us also to use less energy, so the customer can use less energy to lower their costs, and it also creates fewer emissions. So now you have a Scope 3 benefit, when you think about it from a sustainability standpoint. So these are some of the, you know, technologies that we have. In your gift bag, there's a product in there called Stubb's Black Pepper and Smoke. It's a rub. I just used it two weekends ago on a rack of ribs. Loved it, and it really, it really retained that flavor and came through. Also, if you're at the shelf, by the jalapeño, too, I love that, too. I bought pork baby back ribs, and I know how to eat, you know, but it, it was... I wanted to try all of our flavors, and really, it's, it's tremendous.
I think that technology really kind of shines through in a product like that.
All right. Thank you. Getting hungry already. From a high level standpoint, maybe you can share, just some thoughts around how you think about what a healthy margin trajectory looks like, from McCormick.
Going up.
Okay.
Actually,
Sorry.
We're, you know, we're very pleased with the margin trajectory this year. We
Mm-hmm.
There's a lot of the actions we've taken. I've mentioned before, the GOE program-
Mm-hmm.
-and getting through pricing, recovering last year, have led, you know, through the first six months to about 110 basis point improvement year on year through the first six months. So we see that continuing for the year. Actually, at the last earning call, earnings call, we called up our guidance for the year from 25-50 basis points improvement to 50-100 basis points improvement. So we feel good about that. One of the things, you know, there's been such a dynamic environment the last couple of years with double-digit inflation, cost recovery, things like that, kind of the natural sequential pattern of gross margins has been a bit disrupted. What we've seen this year, through the first six months, we've had a gross margin of about 36.5%.
Interestingly, the second quarter was 37.1%, 300 basis points higher than the previous year in due to our really great price realization and the timing of some cost recovery. For the second six, we've called for, you know, the midpoint of our guidance, about 36.6%. So slight improvement up to the high point of 37.1%. So we're hoping to have some improvement in the second six there and continuing to drive, you know, those cost savings that will help us going forward. One point I wanna make sure, and people think about this, or two points, actually. One is our GOE supply chain focus program really has tailwinds into next year, too.
It's a multiyear program, and we do think there are savings across the supply chain, just like our CCI program, we're very focused on driving those cost savings. But our long-term financial algorithm, which I was about to say Lawrence, which Brendan mentioned, yeah, 4%-6% net sales growth drops down to 7%-9% operating profit growth. That implies a 40-50 basis point operating profit improvement, which a lot of that's gonna be, or most of it's gonna be, gross margin improvement. So longer term, we still feel real good about the algorithm.
Right. I guess, you know, Brendan, what would be your strategic priorities over the course of your tenure? And what do you think McCormick looks like sort of five years from now?
Well, we're really very well positioned in the marketplace. The global demand for flavor is really the foundation of our growth and why we are an attractive company, I think. And also part of that is we're in great categories, and these categories are naturally fast-growing. They've got great tailwinds behind them, and so we really like the portfolio that we have and that we're in. We still see, you know, quite a bit of growth coming from that. And, you know, as we've said before, in an earlier, you know, question, it will really align with consumer trends, whether it's healthy and flavorful eating or, you know, people really, you know, kind of searching things and kind of moving more to digital platforms.
You know, overall, it and even as you look at, you know, what people are doing from a standpoint of value, et cetera, we are really moving, I think, in line with those trends out in the marketplace. So, that gives us reason to believe that we're really well positioned. Our business model is really fundamentally strong, overall, and, the value of our brands and our capabilities really kind of underpin that. But even it's just our path to market and what really drives, I think, our success in terms of, you know, global sourcing, manufacturing, supply chain, et cetera. These are things that have been working for us and, you know, we think that they continually remain fundamentally strong overall.
As I look ahead, though, I think, and you think about that, that the outlook in the future, we are going to deliver on that long-term algorithm. And, and we'll do that because of all these areas that, you know, I'll mention in a second here, but they're very consistent with maybe what I said, you know, at the beginning of this session overall. We will expand that system of advantages that we have. And, and for us, it, we feel like our system of advantages is unique, particularly in the categories in which we play in, but its foundation is people and culture, you know, for our company, overall.
And this extends from global sourcing to supply chain, to R&D technology, which we spoke a little bit about here, to category management, and even just that exceptional level of brand marketing support that we give our entire portfolio. Those are the things that we're going to continue to build on and expand on, and that's one of the things that I've asked the company that we focus on overall. We talked about this earlier, but we'll to strengthen our global leadership in the core categories in which we play in. And we are going to. As the environment starts to normalize, we do see, you know, volume growth and share growth across our categories, and that will be important for us. But we'll do it because we'll be doing more innovation, more renovation.
We'll be driving even higher levels of brand marketing across our portfolio, but also, as we collaborate more with customers, we'll expand distribution. Also, in the flavor solution side of our business, we're going to increase global scale that will, you know, really build us up to be, you know, a top flavor house. You heard about the things that differentiate us, you know, earlier this morning. Then we talked a lot about heat, and heat is one of the elements that's gonna really drive, I think, that ability to grow at that level and differentiate us in our performance, you know, within our categories. I talked also about sort of accelerating digital transformation. And, you know, and for us, this is a way that we enhance as we look at this.
Every company is probably focused on this in some way, but for us, it's about how we enhance our connection with customers, with consumers. It's also our ability to get our work done with more speed and operational efficiency, which also lowers costs, you know, overall, and that's also really important for our employees, too. The employee experience, how you get your work done, is also enabled by your digital transformation across the company, overall. And so I see a lot of upside and opportunity there. Overall, I would tell you that this is just about keeping with the speed of change going on everywhere around us, so that's going to be an important element.
But driving profitable growth, driving our margins, and continuing to drive higher returns from our investments is also gonna be a key priority for, for Mike, myself, and this entire management team that we've got. And that'll be, you know, it's been a focus, obviously, here in 2023, but it will be ongoing throughout the Fiscal Year. And I always like to close it out with really the strength of our culture, and that's important to McCormick. We call it the power of people. And, you know, in this, we do see an ability for us to really drive and build that next generation of leaders that's gonna take over from Mike and myself someday. And we -- that's a real top priority for us, including adding even enhanced capabilities in terms of how we operate, you know, out there in the marketplace.
So, you know, I would tell you that's pretty big. I'm very optimistic about, you know, how we're performing out there. I'm very confident in our future and our long-term, you know, overall performance of the company. And this is something that I think we're really excited about. You know, and you can see, I think, even during a year like this, where there's a lot going on, we like where we're trending, and we like the direction of our business right now, and we believe it will continue to get stronger.
Just got a couple minutes left. You know, I know takeaway ultimately is the ultimate arbiter, but, you know, you got a big seasonal fourth quarter, but you generally have a pretty good view, at least on going in, what your merchandising, you know, opportunities look like that you've built in with your key retail partners, and, you know, you've got some new packaging and things of that nature. I guess, what can you say about at least what you can see so far with respect to at least what the programs look like, and how that compares maybe to a year ago? And then the consumer will ultimately, you know, tell-
Right
tell the story.
Well, I'll kick off with a couple thoughts and ask Mike to add to them. We like to look about pipeline of activity.
Mm-hmm.
I mentioned a number of them, new packaging, you know, the lines and the innovation that we're launching. We had a good season on grilling, and that's all about merchandising and execution and turning back on what you would normally see during, you know, that period of time seasonally. And so we're really... Those are the kind of performance that we see in grilling. We see it also extending into the holiday season... and we're able to put one really across our business. We don't have any supply chain issues that we have to be concerned with. It allows us to really just sort of be, you know, fully in effect from a promotional standpoint and season the holiday, season the volume for the holiday.
We're working very close with customers, and a lot of those plans are already starting to be locked in, you know, by this point in time. And so we feel good about our holiday outlook.
Yeah, I think we've also—we're, you know, always updating our portfolio, and we've, we've exited some low-margin sales so that, but we'll look through that when we look at third and fourth quarter results. But we feel good about the pipeline and then, as you see the new products and also the renovation of, in the U.S., the red-cap is really exciting as that rolls through, because we're getting a lot of great comments from customers but also consumers too.
Yeah. I would say, Mike, but my comment about pipeline is not just the price of the balance of 2023, but as we look to 2024 and 2025.
Yeah. And there may be, you know, a good portion of Flavor Solutions about supplying ingredients and flavor technology to other packaged foods manufacturers. I guess, what are you hearing from, you know, from some of your key customers in that realm? You started off the comments a little bit with some of what you're seeing out there from a consumer behavior standpoint.
Yeah.
But maybe what are you seeing from some of your larger, you know, packaged food customers to whom you supply Flavor Solutions?
Well, I think what we're hearing about in the marketplace versus what we're seeing for our portfolio might be slightly different, you know, overall. But I would say what we're hearing broadly is you're seeing that the trends on unit volume kind of, you know, sort of mirror what's happening maybe in an overall flavor company, the performance from a volume standpoint. We think we're performing a little bit better than that, and I think a lot of it has to do with performance of the categories that our customers are in. And so that tends to influence, you know, our own performance-
Nutrition and things of that nature, as you've talked about.
Well, even the categories like performance nutrition or snacks, savory snacks, or even alcoholic beverages, they have nice growth rates. And so, on top of that, we're also gaining share in these categories by, because we're winning new customers all the time. So that gives us, I think, a fairly, you know, positive outlook on what we're seeing, even though you are seeing overall unit volumes kind of softer in the industry. But comparatively, we think we're doing okay. Do you want to add to that, Mike?
I think you said it very well.
Mike, where are we on, obviously, there's been dramatic improvement versus last year around supply chain and service levels. Where are we at this point? Is there still some more room to go, you know, as we go forward-
Yeah.
to get back all the way to bright, if you will?
I think for us, we're in the top tier. That, and we, you know, get measured by customers.
Yeah.
and see our peers, too. So we feel real good. There's always gonna be spotty outages and things like that, but globally, we feel real good about where we are. You know, from an efficiency perspective, though, we know we can get better-
Yeah.
and given you having a more stable environment, it's allowing us to really attack, you know, both logistics costs, manufacturing and supply chain costs across the whole chain. That's really been where we've spent a lot of time while we've kept the service levels high.
Sure.
It allows us to have then more normal promotional programs, things like that, too, which we really like.
Maybe lastly, Brendan, you mentioned earlier the launch of the Lawry's brand and kind of a value brand within, of course, sort of spices and seasonings. And I think one of the, you know, one of the debates early on in that, when you first talked about it, was, you know, is there a risk of having consumers trade down from core red-cap? Or will you ultimately bring folks up that want a brand and aspire to a brand that might have, you know, might have purchased private label before that, which would improve, obviously, your economics, your retail customers' economics and such. I guess, what have you learned? It's early on, but what have you learned on that dynamic so far with that launch?
What we've been learning from that, from the very first time we launched it, even up through today, is, in those accounts that are, you know, carrying Lawry's, no one's trading down from the McCormick brand. In fact, they're really trading up from private label. And so what you'll see is a corresponding decline or deceleration of private label units as the Lawry's, you know, items come in there. So, going back to, what was the purpose of this? Well, price pockets kind of separated and widened, and they kind of created a price pocket for us to naturally go in there with a branded proposition that resonates with Consumers.
That then was, you know, one of the ideas, "Let's really hit this price point." It allows people to trade up from private label because their Consumers really do want brands, and they find a lot of trust in them. And so this, the addition of Lawry's in our line is performing as expected, and it's getting reinforced, you know, as we get into new accounts overall. So, I think, you know, that overall original narrative is really staying true.
Really, I think it's one of the things we found out about some of our brands that are maybe not the McCormick brand. We've talked about French's having great power globally. Lawry's is another brand that really resonates with certain segments of customers, and we see it really performing well right now.
Great. All right. Well, I think with that, we'll have to close it out there. Brendan, Mike, thanks so much. Appreciate it. Good. Thank you.