All right. We're gonna get started. Excellent. Welcome, everybody. My name's Ross Sandler. So I head up the Internet team here at Barclays. We're super excited to have the team from Match back for another year. So thank you.
Happy to be here.
Just to start, I'm gonna read the safe harbor for Tanny. For the lawyers, actually. So during this presentation and during the Q&A session, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These future looks, these forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as "we expect," "we believe," "we anticipate," or similar statements. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainty. Our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Also, today we might discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation to most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in published materials on our IR website. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to substitute for our GAAP results.
So with that out of the way, maybe you can just update us on, like, the next three years and how that would take us?
Yeah.
Thank you for coming. I thought we would just start with this week's recent news. So we've had some changes at Hinge, Jackie stepping up, and a creation of this new Overtone unit. So can you just talk about the transition and how this new unit is structured?
Yeah. Sure. Yeah. I think it's exciting. I think it's a win-win for the company. You know, we announced that we're spinning out a company called Overtone, which is really an AI-first dating service. Think of it as akin to a personal matchmaker of sorts. That's the product experience. That's gonna be led by Justin, who's the founder and former CEO of Hinge. So yeah, I think we think it's the right structure for the business.
Oh, this one? Okay.
Start over again.
Good?
Good. Yeah.
Check.
Here we go.
All right. Let me just start over real quick. So we announced the spin-out of Overtone and that Justin's gonna be leaving Hinge. He was the founder to run Overtone. And we've elevated the president and CMO, Jackie, to the CEO of the company. I think it's a win-win. I think it's the right structure. Jackie's been with the company for four years now. I think she'll take over Hinge without a hitch. She was the president for about the last year. So she was instrumental in running the day-to-day operations of Hinge over this year, 2025. Done a fantastic job. Hinge has hit the numbers. All systems go. So I think, you know, she's completely capable, fantastic leader, also very involved in the 2026 planning efforts. So I think it's gonna be a very smooth transition there. And she's capable leader. Will do great.
We also have a great management team around here at Hinge. I feel really good about that. I think the timing's right, and Justin said that himself, and then on the Overtone sort of structure, look, we've been working on this app Justin has inside of Hinge for about the last year, made good progress but still very early, and, you know, we came up with the structure for a few reasons. One, you know, we really wanted Justin to be able to go fast, start-up mode as sort of a separate independent company. We also wanted to bring some VCs in to share in some of the risk associated with a start-up like this. You know, we'll be the largest shareholder in the company. We've got an option to buy it down the road if it's successful.
But you know, these businesses often take a lot of losses in the early days. So this is a good structure where we don't have to consolidate the results and we can participate in the upside. So again, I think it's pro it's a win-win for the company and the right structure given the situation.
Yeah. It's, I mean, I think, if I remember correctly, Tinder came out of a similar incubator.
Right.
Inside of Match and IAC way back in the day.
Yep.
So, yeah, you guys are good at that. Okay. So we're about a year from the Analyst Day. It was actually like the morning of this conference last year.
That's true.
Yeah.
So that was a fun day for us.
But what I thought we'd do is maybe like take a snapshot of where we are today looking ahead and talk about some of the tailwinds and headwinds in the business, as it relates to that multi-year forecast you guys laid out a year ago. So I guess starting with tailwinds, you've been at Match for a while, you know, a number of years. You've also been here for multiple CEOs. So what stands out the most about current pace, focus, and operating changes under Spencer since he took over in February?
Yeah. You know, I get that question a lot. I particularly got it in the beginning when he first took over back in February. And I was talking about, you know, his energy and his experience and, you know, the breath of fresh air and the shift in focus towards users and outcomes. And that's all still true. But I think it's an easier conversation now because we're 10 months in. And I think the record shows, you know, what he's been able to do at the company, which has been a lot. And so, you know, just look at the what we've accomplished so far. You know, we restructured the company, reduced the size of it by 13%. We reorged Tinder into more autonomous product pods. We removed layers of management, one in five managers at Tinder.
You know, we've increased product velocity going from shipping every two weeks to every one week. We've shifted the whole focus of the company really towards one of being users you know, myopically focused on user success and outcomes. So, like, you know, he's proven that. He's a seasoned, capable leader. And we've accomplished a lot. Now, we're still working on the end goal, which is turning MAU around and getting Tinder back to revenue growth. But I think all the steps, you know, thus far to get there, he you know, he's done a fantastic job at. I have been at the company a long time, 13 and a half years now, and a lot of CEOs.
You know, I can truly say this is the, I think, the biggest shift I've seen in the shortest period of time under any CEO at the company.
One of the jobs you have that's tough as a CFO, is gearing the street towards metrics that you find and that we can find as most important. So I know we aren't optimizing Tinder for payer growth or RPP. So how do you convince us, the investment community, to move off of that metric given that we've been on it for so long? And if you had to pick one metric for us to focus on at Tinder for the next, like, three years, what would that be?
Yeah. I think, look, it goes back to what I just said. You know, RPP and payers is a little bit of a, you know, a lagging indicator. What we're really looking at is, and there's ways to improve those metrics that help short-term but maybe hurt long-term. And so what Spencer's really come in and said is, "Yeah. Sure. We can, we can increase price maybe, or we can increase conversion a little bit, drive those metrics up." And we've done a lot of that at Tinder over the years. But if it's not in the service of the user, if it's not increasing the value proposition or leading to better outcomes on the app, it's a little penny wise, pound foolish.
And so he's sort of shifted the narrative towards, "Let's focus on the user first, getting them more outcomes on the app." And by the way, Hinge has done this the whole time. And you've seen the successes it's driven. And so the idea is, you know, Tinder should be using the same lens too. That will then lead to, you know, a few things, improve retention on the app. We know if you're getting more outcomes, you're getting into more conversations early on in your experience at Tinder, your retention is higher. That is a fact. And it also indirectly helps because if you have a great experience on the app, you know, when you do get in that relationship, and maybe decide to get off the app for a while, you're gonna tell your friends about it.
That drives reconsideration, reacquisition, and user growth from that regard. Then the other factor in all this is, because we're, you know, an episodic sort of business, you know, when that relationship doesn't work out, which often is the case, you're gonna come back to Tinder again. So, you know, by focusing on that first, you know, on outcomes that will lead to MAU growth, that will then give us a stable, if not growing, user base to optimize around, you know, the revenue and the RPP and the payers will come, rather than just trying to optimize payer penetration and RPP on a shrinking user base. You can only do that for so long, and so that's sort of the shift in focus.
And then, you know, the metric is, you know, the Sparks metric, which we talked about a quarter ago, which is effectively a proxy for outcomes. And so the Sparks metric is a six-way conversation, a six-way back and forth, which, you know, when you run the regression on it is, you know, and you look at sort of the curve, six-way what the six-way point is, is sort of where the curve flattens out in terms of predictability in leading to an outcome, which is a real connection. And so we went with that metric. We were using, you know, contact exchange. We talked about it a couple quarters ago. The reason we've moved away from that a little bit is because, first of all, Sparks is pretty predictive of contact exchange.
Contact exchange had a little bit of, there's some issues. For example, in Europe, you can't, you know, use AI to read people's messages from a privacy perspective. So we can't. We're not even allowed to see, "Did you, you know, share a contact?" And some of our features like Double Date, you know, what we were seeing in user behavior was they're not really exchanging contacts. They're actually just saying, "Hey, let's meet here because it's a group date.
Right.
Then, you know, dealing with the logistics of the app. Sparks, we feel, is the best metric. We're using it internally, sort of kicking the tires on it. Then we'll decide, you know, exactly how we, you know, give that to you guys externally in terms of quarterly reporting.
Got it. Okay. Back to tailwinds. So you guys mentioned on the last call this spring event that a potentially new Tinder or some new unveil comes out. So should we look at this in the context of your multi-year plan as the start of the resurgence phase in terms of MAU and revenue growth, or is this kind of the back half of the revitalization phase? I mean, to the degree you can talk about the spring event.
Right. Yeah. The spring event, I would think of it as an update on the progress we're making on the revitalization phase.
Okay.
The reason we're doing it is because we just can't, you know, we're making a ton of progress on the product with a lot of new features and a lot of new tests. It's just really hard to share all that in an earnings call, for example.
Yeah.
So the idea is to share it in a lot more detail so all of you understand the progress being made, in that second phase, the revitalization phase, that we think will lead to the resurgence phase. It's still in that sometime in 2026 or 2027. That's the way to think about it.
Got it. Okay. And then shifting to headwinds, or potential headwinds. So Face Check, we've talked about that in recent calls. This weighs on MAU, by low single digits, I think you guys said.
Yeah.
Are there other trust and safety or user outcome initiatives that could create near-term friction to MAU or headwinds to revenue? And why are these trade-offs the right long-term choice?
Yeah. First of all, Face Check is, I think, phenomenal. It's been hugely impactful. It's reduced exposure to bad actors by 60%. We've never seen that with a trust and safety feature before, and you're right. We think it's gonna cause, you know, a couple points of impact to revenue, but that's a, well, you know, a worthwhile trade-off. We've, we've optimized that down from about 10 points, which is where we started out in Canada a year or so ago. So we've really done a good job there. There's not another new trust and safety feature in the, you know, in the roadmap that we think will have a similar impact. It's an ongoing battle. So it's a little hard to predict. But right now, we're focused on rolling out Face Check more broadly.
Actually, a few days ago, we've rolled it out now across the U.S. at Tinder in its entirety. So that's a big step forward. Where we might see a little bit of the MAU pressure or the revenue pressure is more likely to come from some of the other user tests we're doing. You know, the Project Aurora test in Australia features that basically drive user outcomes, potentially at the expense of a little bit of short-term revenue and maybe even some users. You know, a good example would be algorithm changes that shift the weighting towards user outcomes and away from just getting likes to as many people as possible to get them to convert on the "See your likes. You pay well." Some of that. Again, we're being smart about it.
We're testing it in confined markets to understand the impacts. We'll be very clear about what we think those impacts will be. We talked about 14 million potential in Q4. The reality is, you know, we're trying to be conservative in those estimates because we don't wanna hold the product teams back. In the past, they were all afraid to take bold leaps because they were sort of confined by this revenue sort of objective. What we've actually seen, which I think is good, is a lot of these tests aren't as impactful as we think. There's offsetting benefits, and so we'll have to see how that plays out, but we'll be very transparent in terms of guidance and those things on it.
Cool. And a potential massive tailwind for you guys next year, which you've talked about, is we've got about $100 million potentially in the bank, so to speak, from the App Store fee changes that you could potentially redeploy in customer acquisition or product changes like you just described. How much of that do you think it's reinvested back into the business versus allowing it to drop to the bottom line?
We said 90 million last, and yeah.
Maybe it's a little bit from Google that.
Right. Oh, that's true. Yeah.
Yeah.
The goal, yeah. Depending on how Google evolves, that's true. It could be more.
Yeah.
Yeah. Like, look, I would think about it this way. We're gonna do what we think is right. We're gonna make the necessary investments to get to ensure Tinder's long-term success and to, you know, optimize for long-term EBITDA and free cash flow and shareholder value, and that's the process we're going through right now as part of the 2026 annual planning process, that we're sort of in the middle of, and we'll use tests, like Project Aurora and other sort of tests we have going on right now to inform the 2026 plan. That's how I think about it. The good thing is it gives us a lot of optionality, obviously, so we feel like we've got plenty of optionality to do what's right for the business long-term.
Okay. And another headwind, I mean, you guys get this question a lot, so I would just kind of throw it out there high level. But there's this perception that the Tinder product might need to be changed somewhat dramatically to cater to the Gen Z dating pool. You've rolled out things like Double Date, College Modes. How many more new modes do we need at Tinder, and how big of a departure do you think you need in terms of the end state of the product from, you know, its previous?
Yeah.
User experience?
Look, I think we need to take some bold swings. Yeah. Incremental improvements to the app alone are not gonna be enough, but we also, I don't see us moving away from, you know, the core swipe experience either anytime soon. I think the way, if ever, I think the way to think about it is how can we augment what makes Tinder great, what Tinder's known for, to meet the needs of particularly of Gen Z and Gen Z women? And so Modes is a great example of that. Modes is not replacing the swipe. Modes is allowing more customization, an experience that's more akin to what Gen Z's looking for while keeping the core swipe mechanic that has made Tinder so popular. I do think there will be more modes, and we're working on those. You know, we're, you know, we've got college.
We've got Double Date. We've got more to come. There's lots you could think about. But I think it's a clever way to sort of, you know, keep what makes Tinder so great but also provide an improved product experience that's, you know, what Gen Z's looking for. I think there are a few other things we're doing. You know, Chemistry's another great example. So Chemistry takes it one step further, right? Modes is a way to sort of filter your swipe experience. Chemistry is separate and apart from the swipe experience. And so think of it as, you know, a second tab.
So I can go in the app and say, "Do I want to swipe, or do I want a more curated set of AI-driven matches?" and giving, you know, that's a feature that Gen Z women in particular, I think, are gonna love, and so the goal is that, to augment what makes Tinder great, but in bold ways. When all these little things ladder up, improved algos, better recommendations, better outcomes, together, it's a new product experience that, you know, lives up to the expectations that Gen Z's put on the dating app, you know, on Tinder and the category at large.
Got it. You mentioned this earlier, but Sparks being this key metric that you guys are going for to, you know, determine, you know, the positive user outcome. As coverage of Sparks continues to rise, when do you expect that to translate into either aggregate MAU retention and ultimately revenue?
Yeah. I did talk a little bit about it. You know, we know Sparks leads to better retention, better word of mouth. And so it will, you know, it will improve MAU. Like, we, you know, we can see that today. It's difficult to say exactly when. That takes a little bit of time and depends on, you know, how, you know, how quickly and how dramatically we can improve that metric. And there's sort of two ways we're looking at it. One is Sparks coverage, which is, the, you know, of our users we have today, how many are getting into these meaningful connections as a percentage, and then just Sparks overall. And so, you know, we've seen good improvement in Sparks coverage. Spencer's talked about that a little bit on the earnings calls. That's the first step.
that should ultimately lead to but Sparks themselves are still down. Users are still down. We expect, you know, if we can drive user outcomes, that will translate into improved MAU trends. But we haven't sort of put a quarter on it yet. We're trying to do it as quickly as possible and in a, you know, a thoughtful, like, sort of long-term way.
Okay, so it could potentially have a little impact on MAU.
I think, yeah, the way to think about the impact on MAU, you know, this it's a little bit, nuanced. Sparks themselves leads to better retention and better MAU. But, algorithm changes that prioritize Sparks or outcomes over likes and revenue could actually have a little bit of a negative impact to MAU. Likely, what would happen is, you know, it would help women retention. It would improve the women experience. You know, today, if we're just getting as many men, as many likes as possible, the women experience on the other side is not the best. They're sort of getting flooded with, you know, men they might not wanna really actually connect with.
If we flip the script and we optimize more towards meaningful connections and outcomes, the women's experience improves, but some, some men might not get as many likes as they used to, and that retention might fall off, and so we're willing to make that trade-off, and that's where this gets a little bit bumpy, and we need to sort of test our way through it, so I expect there to be some short-term noise, but long-term, it's definitely the more sustainable approach.
Okay. And on the tailwinds, you mentioned earlier Project Aurora. Obviously, that's a big topic. Sounds like it's a whole new UI coupled with a new marketing plan and potentially, like, post rollout, you're driving better growth at better retention but potentially at lower, albeit acceptable margin. Is that the right way to think about it? And just broadly, thus far, with Australia, what have you guys, you know, learned?
Yeah. I think that it's still early, you know. We're rolling out as many features there as quickly as possible. There are more rolling out as we speak. I wouldn't think of it as it's an entirely new UI, like. There's the old Tinder, and now there's the new Tinder. It's more what I talked about a little bit ago, which is augmenting the experience, but we're doing it all in one place. So it's adding modes. It's reimagining some of the See Who Likes You mechanics. It's adding Chemistry, and it's coupling that with marketing spend because, you know, marketing can't play the lead role in this turnaround, but it definitely has a support role to play. I think the early signs are, you know, we've seen some early green shoots there, and we're happy with the progress we're making.
You know, and we're gonna use it to inform our 2026 plan. And that's sort of what we're in the middle of right now.
Got it. Okay. And if we step back to MAU, and we kind of talk about that relative to some of the ecosystem safety and trust initiatives that you've done, do you believe that there's still a lot more cleanup to be done within the 47 million-ish that you talked about at the Analyst Day in terms of total MAU, or is that, like, we're at the right baseline?
I think the trust and safety work doesn't end. It's an ongoing battle. It's always gonna be a high priority for us. It's always gonna be a big area of investment because it's actually the number one barrier for users entering the category, concerns, perceived concerns about trust and safety. You know, the bad actors don't quit. They don't go away. I do think Face Check is a huge leap forward. Like I said, 60% reduction in exposure to bad actors. But it's not like we have to, we can stop there. I don't expect, I don't foresee anything in the roadmap or coming down the pike that's, you know, some meaningful cleanup effort, like we had a couple, you know, a year or two ago, a couple years ago. But, you know, there's always gonna be this ongoing battle.
And we're never gonna say, you know, tamp down on trust and safety efforts because it could create a little noise in MAU. That would be foolish. But no, there's not a Facebook, you know, a Face Check, you know, version two alternative or other product feature coming down the pike that I expect to have a material impact on MAU.
Got it. Okay. And you started the conversation with Hinge and the change. I mean, Hinge's business has just been, you know, on fire, has been for a while. So I guess high level, you know, you guys talked about this before, but what did they get right that Tinder has gotten wrong? And then as you look into 2026, what are the biggest growth initiatives for Hinge?
Yeah. I think it's this, that I guess they've done two things. One, a focus on the user and user outcomes. You know, it's the app designed to be deleted. That's been a successful recipe, and one that we think Tinder can learn from, as we've discussed today. I think the second thing they've done really well is they've balanced the roadmap. They've done a really good job of, you know, making sure a large portion of the product roadmap is centered on product innovation, maybe not things that are gonna drive revenue next quarter, but that continue to evolve the app and meet the needs of users. That, I think, has been a huge recipe for success.
I think Tinder, you know, it just had such, you know, dramatic growth, no marketing spend, part of the, you know, cultural zeitgeist, biggest app in the industry. You know, we probably focus a little bit too much on monetization and not enough on sort of laying the seed for longer-term innovation. Hinge has learned from that and not made the same mistake, and I think that's showing in the results, and in terms of 2026, it's gonna be a little bit more of the same. It's gonna be a balanced roadmap around product innovation. They're sort of at the forefront of AI in the category, and that won't change either. They've had a lot of success with features like prompt feedback and others around sort of AI coaching.
And then, you know, there's room for continued optimization around monetization as long as it's increasing the value proposition there. And then I think the third component is obviously geographic expansion. And so, you know, they've done a great job expanding into Mexico and Brazil, but there's more room to go there. And so, you know, we'll talk more about the ongoing expansion plans at Hinge, but that will help plant the seeds for growth, not so much in 2026, but 2027 and beyond.
Okay, and on the headwind side, you mentioned rolling out Face Check in other properties. Where are you on that initiative and how material could that be to the overall business?
Yeah. We're racing ahead at Hinge and at some of our other major brands. And the plan is to roll them out there as quickly as possible. We'll test it, you know. I don't foresee a one-year test because that's the beauty of our portfolio, right? We can learn from what Tinder learned and expedite rollouts in other brands, you know. If we, you know, we've obviously penciled out some preliminary numbers, you know. I expected to have some impact on those brands, but it's not material. I think the bulk of it will be at Tinder. And, you know, we've kind of sized that. And these other rollouts won't be sort of material to the overall company.
Got it. Okay. And then on top of funnel, you guys showed some data at the Analyst Day that had, on one hand, it was like 220 million no-app daters.
Right.
And then there was 30 million of the previous Tinder Hinge, you know, churned daters.
Right.
Which do you view as the bigger opportunity in the near term between the no-appers and resurrecting some of that 30 million?
Yeah. I mean, well, the numbers show the bigger opportunity to 220. The nuance there, I think they're both opportunities. I think the nuance is, you know, it's easier to drive reconsideration, right? So for the 30 million people who have been on these apps, have been on Tinder, and have used it, you know, what we need to do is a lot of what we've been talking about: improve the product experience, get the word of mouth flywheel going, and just evolve the product enough to where they're like, "Okay. It is new. It is different. It's worth reconsideration." So I think, and marketing can play a big role in that too. So I think that's really the near-term opportunity.
You know, the 220 is more the medium-long-term opportunity that shows, you know, there's still a lot of room to go here in this. And, you know, we're, you know, if you look at our MAU, remember there's duplicates in there because we've got people on multiple apps. And if you were to dedupe that number, you know, that, you know, the 250 in total is a big number for us. You know, we could double the company if we, you know, chip away at that, so yeah, I think the reconsideration's the near-term opportunity. The new category entry is a little bit of the long-term opportunity. That is where the product innovation comes in. And that is where, you know, AI can play a role, and marketing too.
I think Hinge has done some really interesting work on the marketing side that tries to explain to those who haven't tried online dating why now might be the right time.
On this topic of, like, Gen Z and just non-adopters, there's a theory out there that direct messaging is a format that Gen Z feels more comfortable using and is a potential competition for you guys. So how do you respond to that secular bear case that the younger demographic just wants to DM in these other social apps and not use an actual dating product?
I'll tell you what our data shows. We do a quarterly survey of singles in the U.S. that gets at a lot of these questions. And, you know, what we see is it's not stealing share from dating. It's actually, it's sort of like what the bars and the church and your parents, friends were before the digital age, alternative to online dating. Now, social media is another alternative. And there are some use cases that it does happen, but we don't see it replacing, you know, online dating as a category. We're the much more effective. We're thinking about it every day. So it happens, but it's clear in our data, it's not stealing share that we can see.
Okay. That's great. So I think we're at time. We're gonna leave it there, but thank you very much for coming.
Yeah. Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you again. Yeah.
Appreciate it. Thanks.