Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2013

Jul 31, 2013

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Mueller Water Products conference call. I would like to remind all parties that your lines are on a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer segment of today's conference. Also, this call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. I will now turn the call over to Marti Zakas. You may begin.

Marietta Zakas
Senior Vice President, Strategy, Corporate Development and Communications, Mueller Water Products

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Mueller Water Products' 2013 third quarter conference call. We issued our press release reporting results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2013, yesterday afternoon. A copy of it is available on our website, muellerwaterproducts.com. Mueller Water Products had 158 million shares outstanding at June 30, 2013. Discussing the third quarter's results this morning are Greg Hyland, our chairman, president, and CEO, and Evan Hart, our CFO. This morning's call is being recorded and webcast live on the internet. We have also posted slides on our website to help illustrate the quarter's results, as well as to address forward-looking statements and our non-GAAP disclosure requirements. At this time, please refer to slide two.

This slide identifies certain non-GAAP financial measures referenced in our press release, on our slides, and on this call, and discloses the reasons why we believe that these measures provide useful information to investors. Reconciliations between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures are included in the supplemental information within our press release and on our website. Slide three addresses our forward-looking statements made on this call. This slide includes cautionary information identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in forward-looking statements, as well as specific examples of forward-looking statements. Please review slides two and three in their entirety. During this call, all references to a specific year or quarter refer to our fiscal year, which ends on September 30. All operating results discussed in these prepared remarks are from continuing operations unless specified otherwise.

A replay of this morning's call will be available for 30 days after the call at 1-866-470-7045. The archived webcast and the corresponding slides will be available for at least 90 days in the investor relations section of our website. In addition, we will furnish a copy of our prepared remarks on Form 8-K later this morning. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call to questions. I'll now turn the call over to Greg.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Thanks, Marti. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our results for the 2013 third quarter. I'll begin with a brief overview of the quarter, followed by Evan's detailed financial report, which covers key drivers affecting our businesses. I will then provide additional comments on the quarter's results and developments in our end markets, as well as our outlook for the fourth quarter. We are pleased with our third quarter results, with an 8.5% increase in net sales and a 25.4% increase in adjusted operating income. Net sales and adjusted operating margins at both Mueller Co. and Anvil increased both year-over-year and sequentially. These results contributed to our best overall quarter in the past five years.

We continue to benefit from improved operating leverage at Mueller Co. and the ongoing recovery of our end markets, with Mueller Co.'s net sales increasing 9.1% and adjusted operating margin improving 180 basis points to 15.3% in the quarter compared to the prior year. We saw a nice increase in net sales for our metering and leak detection products and services in the third quarter, demonstrating the progress we continue to make in the marketplace. Anvil had a solid quarter, with net sales up 7.3% and adjusted operating income up 24.2% year-over-year. Finally, we had a very strong free cash flow of $37.7 million for the quarter, which was driven by both growth in operating income and working capital management. I'll now turn the call over to Evan.

Evan L. Hart
Senior Vice President and CFO, Mueller Water Products

Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone. I'll first review our consolidated financial results and then discuss segment performance. Net sales for the 2013 third quarter of $299.4 million increased $23.5 million, or 8.5%, from the 2012 third quarter net sales of $275.9 million, due mostly to higher shipment volumes at both Mueller Co. and Anvil. Gross profit improved 13.1% to $90 million for the 2013 third quarter, compared to $79.6 million for the 2012 third quarter. Gross profit margin of 30.1% improved 120 basis points from 28.9%. This improvement was driven primarily by higher shipment volumes and higher sales prices. Selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percent of net sales declined to 19% for the 2013 third quarter from 19.3% for the 2012 third quarter. Selling, general, and administrative expenses were $56.9 million for the 2013 third quarter, compared to $53.2 million for the 2012 third quarter.

Adjusted operating income for the 2013 third quarter increased 25.4% to $33.1 million from adjusted operating income of $26.4 million for the 2012 third quarter. This increase was driven primarily by higher shipment volumes and higher sales prices, partially offset by higher selling, general, and administrative expenses. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2013 third quarter increased to $47.7 million from $41.4 million for the 2012 third quarter. Trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA through June 30th, 2013 was $147.9 million, an improvement of $29.2 million or 24.6% from a year ago. Interest expense net for the 2013 third quarter declined $900,000 to $12.7 million from $13.6 million for the 2012 third quarter, excluding $1.3 million of non-cash costs for terminated interest rate swap contracts for the 2012 third quarter. This decrease was due to lower levels of total debt outstanding.

During the 2013 third quarter, income tax expense was $4.2 million on pre-tax income of $20.2 million, or an effective income tax rate of 20.8%. The 2013 third quarter expense was reduced by $4 million related to a deferred tax asset valuation allowance adjustment. Excluding this adjustment, the effective tax rate for the 2013 third quarter was 40.5%. Net operating loss carryforwards remain available to offset future taxable earnings. Adjusted net income per diluted share for the 2013 third quarter was $0.08 compared to an adjusted net income per diluted share for the 2012 third quarter of $0.05, an improvement of $0.03. I'll now walk you through the after-tax adjustments for both the 2013 and 2012 third quarters.

2013 EPS from continuing operations of $0.10 was adjusted by the following items: restructuring expenses of $100,000 offset by deferred tax asset valuation allowance adjustment benefit of $4 million. 2012 EPS from continuing operations of $0.04 was adjusted by the following items: loss on early extinguishment of debt of $900,000, terminated interest rate swap contract cost of $800,000, and restructuring expenses of $400,000. There was a weighted average of 160.7 million diluted shares of our common stock outstanding for the 2013 third quarter, compared to a weighted average of 158 million diluted shares outstanding for the 2012 third quarter. I'll now move on to segment performance and begin with Mueller Co. Net sales for the 2013 third quarter increased 9.1% to $199.3 million from net sales of $182.6 million for the 2012 third quarter.

This increase was due primarily to higher shipment volumes, particularly of our metering products and higher prices. Net sales of the metering and leak detection products and services increased 67% year-over-year and accounted for two-thirds of Mueller Co.'s net sales growth in the third quarter. Adjusted operating income for the 2013 third quarter improved 23.6% to $30.4 million from adjusted operating income of $24.6 million for the 2012 third quarter. Adjusted operating margin for the 2013 third quarter improved 180 basis points to 15.3% from adjusted operating margin for the 2012 third quarter of 13.5%. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2013 third quarter grew to $41.3 million compared to adjusted EBITDA for the 2012 third quarter of $35.9 million. I'll now turn to Anvil. Net sales for the 2013 third quarter increased 7.3% to $100.1 million compared to net sales of $93.3 million for the 2012 third quarter.

The increase resulted from higher shipment volumes and higher prices. Adjusted operating income for the 2013 third quarter improved 24.2% to $12.3 million compared to adjusted operating income for the 2012 third quarter of $9.9 million. Anvil's adjusted operating margin for the 2013 third quarter was 12.3% compared to 10.6% for the 2012 third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2013 third quarter increased 17.8% to $15.9 million compared to adjusted EBITDA for the 2012 third quarter of $13.5 million. Turning now to a discussion of our liquidity. Free cash flow, which is cash flows from operating activities less capital expenditures, was $37.7 million for the 2013 third quarter, compared to negative $3.4 million for the 2012 third quarter. The increase was generated by both our growth in operating income and working capital management. Year to date, free cash flow was $19.8 million, compared to $5 million in 2012.

For the 2013 third quarter, trailing four-quarter average accounts receivable, inventory, and accounts payable as a percent of net sales improved 170 basis points from the 2012 third quarter. At June 30th, 2013, total debt was $600.9 million, down $21.9 million from a year ago. Total debt outstanding included $420 million of 7.375% senior subordinated notes due 2017, $177.9 million of 8.75% senior unsecured notes due 2020, and $3 million of other. Net debt leverage declined to 3.6 times at June 30th, 2013, due to improved operating performance and free cash flow generation. Using June 30th, 2013 data, we had $157.8 million of excess availability under our asset-based credit agreement. During the quarter, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its corporate credit rating on Mueller Water Products to BB- from B. I'll now turn the call back to Greg.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Thanks, Evan. I'll now elaborate on our 2013 third quarter performance and end markets to provide an outlook for our fourth quarter. I'll begin with Mueller Co. Mueller Co.'s results came in about as we expected, with top line year-over-year growth of 9.1% and growth across all of our product lines. Net sales of our metering and leak detection products and services grew 67% year-over-year. However, sales were down in Canada by $3 million year-over-year. We believe the flooding in Western Canada, coupled with the construction worker strike in Quebec, contributed to the decline. As we mentioned on our last call, we believe distributor inventory levels were generally greater entering the third quarter of this year than they were last year. This increase was due to several factors, primarily the timing of our January price increase and weather-related impact on construction in some parts of the country.

We believe that our Mueller distributors reduced inventories throughout the quarter, and their inventories were lower at the end of the third quarter than they were at the end of the second quarter, and generally flat year-over-year. We believe distributors met some of the end market demand during the third quarter by pulling down inventory. During the quarter, domestic unit shipments of our valves were down slightly under 5%, hydrants were down slightly more than 6%, and brass products were up almost 9%. This was expected since our distributors entered the quarter with higher inventory of valves and hydrants, again, as a result of the January price increase. However, domestic orders for these products in units were all up. Valves more than 8%, hydrants more than 5%, and brass products more than 20%.

Mueller Co. adjusted operating margins expanded by 180 basis points during the quarter as we continue to benefit from increased volumes, higher sales prices, and operating leverage. Margins in the third quarter were the highest we have seen since the fourth quarter of 2010. We believe that most of the growth in our base Mueller Co. business in the quarter came from new residential construction. We think that municipal spending is mixed and, in total, was up only slightly on a year-over-year basis. Before discussing our outlook for the fourth quarter, I'll provide an overview of some of the macro drivers in our end markets. While the recently reported macroeconomic data has remained mixed, the macro factors that impact our markets appear to be holding their own and, for the most part, remain positive.

While state and local seasonally adjusted tax receipts continue to increase and hit new highs, budgets in many areas remain stressed by healthcare costs and underfunded retirement plans. On the municipal bond front, with interest rates rising sharply recently, total issuances have slowed and are now showing a 9% decline through the first six months of calendar 2013 compared to the prior year period. New money issuances are barely positive at 1.4%. However, the CPI for water and sewage rates increased by an annualized rate of 5% in June year-over-year. Single-family housing starts, which significantly impact demand for our products, averaged about 600,000 on an annualized basis for the nine months through June, compared to about 500,000 last year, up 20%.

According to a June survey by Ivy Zelman & Associates, demand for land and lots hit a record high for their survey, with strong activity, especially in the central and west regions, although the pace of improvement has slowed slightly. Anvil also had a solid quarter, with adjusted operating margin expanding by 170 basis points to 12.3%. In particular, we saw a nice pickup in demand for our mechanical products in certain regions of the country, which was driven by commercial construction. This is the highest margin we have achieved since the first quarter of 2009. Turning now to our outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect Mueller Co.'s fourth quarter net sales to increase year-over-year. We expect the year-over-year growth rate to be less in the fourth quarter than it was in the third quarter.

We expect only modest year-over-year growth in our metering product line because we have passed the one-year anniversary of a significant meter supply agreement. Additionally, as we have said, this product line is more dependent on specific projects, and we have seen a delay on certain meter projects, which may push orders and shipments into fiscal 2014. All in all, we expect total Mueller Co. net sales in the fourth quarter to be slightly less than in the third quarter with a year-over-year growth rate in the mid-single digits. We expect Mueller Co.'s adjusted operating margin to improve substantially and for fourth quarter adjusted operating income to improve year-over-year across all of its key product categories. Mueller Co.'s adjusted operating income is also expected to decline slightly sequentially, which is consistent with the seasonality of the business.

We previously said that we expected our metering and leak detection products and services to be profitable for the full year based on the backlog and the expected timing of being awarded additional contracts. Today, we believe that certain contracts, which we had expected to be awarded and shipped in 2013, may be awarded in 2013, but shipments would be delayed into fiscal 2014. As a result, today, we do not think these products and services will be profitable in 2013. We have seen significant improvement this year. Year-to-date, through the third quarter, we reduced year-over-year operating losses by approximately $9 million. In addition, we recently introduced new technologies in fixed leak detection during the third quarter. These are in the pilot stage, and we are very bullish about their potential.

All in all, for the fourth quarter, we expect a richer conversion margin than what we saw in the third quarter, due primarily to expected growth in our base domestic valve, hydrant, and brass products. At Anvil, we expect net sales to be both slightly higher than in the third quarter and to increase year-over-year. The increase in volume should also result in higher year-over-year adjusted operating income. For the company as a whole, we believe that 2013 fourth quarter net sales will increase year-over-year, primarily due to volume increases at both Mueller Co. and Anvil. We expect a solid increase in adjusted operating income year-over-year and to see an improvement in our adjusted operating margin. Raw material costs continue to decline.

We expect material costs for all of 2013 will be slightly favorable year-over-year, as we should benefit from lower raw material costs, partially offset by higher costs of purchased components. Other key variables for 2013 include corporate expenses are estimated to be $32 million-$33 million, depreciation and amortization is estimated to be $59 million-$60 million, and interest expense is estimated to be approximately $52 million. Our adjusted effective income tax rate should be about 40% for the full year. Capital expenditures should be between $32 million and $34 million. For the full year, we expect free cash flow to be stronger than 2012. Most of our improved free cash flow generation should come from increased income from operations. Additionally, we expect income tax payments and pension contributions to be minimal this year. We are pleased with our third quarter results, especially the margin expansion at Mueller Co. and Anvil.

Our metering and leak detection products and services will not likely be profitable in 2013, we believe they will be profitable soon. They continue to make progress in the marketplace, and we are excited about the potential of our new fixed leak detection products and the overall opportunities in the smart meter and leak detection markets. With that, I will open this call for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, if you would have a question, please press star one on the touchpad of your phone. You will be prompted to record your name. Please be sure your line is unmuted and state your name clearly so I can introduce your question. Star one, please. Our first question today comes from Seth Weber of RBC Capital Markets.

Seth Weber
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hey, good morning, everybody.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Morning, Seth.

Evan L. Hart
Senior Vice President and CFO, Mueller Water Products

Good morning.

Seth Weber
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

A couple questions. Can you just give us a sense for the price increases that you pushed through earlier this year, whether they're sticking, how much of that you're capturing, and how you're feeling about the pricing environment?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Yeah. Seth, I would say that the pricing environment is typical to what we see. That's not to say from time to time, some projects can get competitive, but I think that the price increase is sticking. In fact, when you look at our Mueller Co. year-over-year improvement in margins, about 70 basis points of that improvement came from higher pricing, which was about 40% of the improvement. Yeah, I think our price increases, we're still getting in that 50%-60% that we generally expect to achieve of a price increase.

Seth Weber
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, great. Thank you. I guess, going back to your comments about the systems NetLogix profitability pushout, can you give us a little bit more color there? Is that just budgeting issues, or is the customer rethinking the process, or is it budgeting? Give us any more color on what gives you confidence that those awards are still coming.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

No. I think what we're finding is it is just taking longer for municipalities to make decisions on AMI systems. I think it goes through a longer review process, and it's not just the head of the meter department making the decision. I think the mayor even gets involved because it's a much bigger decision and higher dollar spend. I think it takes a little more time. Actually, looking at our sales funnel today as compared to three months ago, we did lose one contract where we thought we had a better than 50% chance of winning. All the other projects that were in our funnel that were the basis of our comments are still in our funnel. They're moving along, and we believe in our ability to win those. Additionally, new opportunities have been added.

I think when we look at just the timing, it's been several contracts that we would've expected to have been awarded in the third quarter that we could have started shipping in the fourth quarter. Those decisions have not been made yet. We don't see an overall, I'd say, drop-off in market interest or in market demand. I do think that we're finding it is a little more difficult to predict when the project decision will be actually made.

Seth Weber
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. I think that that business collectively is doing something like high $20 million in revenue a quarter. Is that fair?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

I'd say more in mid-20.

Seth Weber
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Mid-20. Okay. Can you just maybe help frame what order of magnitude of these projects are out there? In the first half of next year, can you talk about what you think that run rate could be up to?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Yeah. We're talking projects, let me say, projects that could fall within a range of a $5 million project to a $15 million project. It certainly is across the board. I would say, to date, we haven't had many of those projects flowing through our income statement. While we've had some AMI projects that have been smaller projects, I think that as we progress, as our technology is progressing, we're getting the opportunity to look at these bigger projects. I think it could have, certainly as those close, that they could have a more, let's say, more meaningful impact on our quarterly shipments.

Seth Weber
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

I'm just trying to understand, what the kind of break-even revenue run rate. Is it like a $30 million quarterly run rate is where you think you get profitable or?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Well, in our metering business, Brent, it certainly is mix-dependent. If we look at this quarter, our sales were about $25 million, and we lost $600,000 in that business. That's the meter business. Just a little shift in mix, certainly more towards AMI, and at $25 million, that business could be profitable. I would say certainly the revenues will impact it, but mix would have almost just as much of an impact.

Seth Weber
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. That's actually very helpful. Thank you very much.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Thanks, Brent.

Operator

Next, we have Mike Wood, Macquarie. Your line is open.

Michael Wood
Analyst, Macquarie

Hi, thank you. Since you had said inventories were flat at the end of the quarter year-on-year, can you give us a sense of how sales are trending in the Mueller Co. business, in the base business in July, just to get a sense of where maybe the end market demand is?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Mike, I would say that it's probably pretty consistent with the outlook that we just gave. We think overall sales for the quarter are going to be up year-over-year. We do think that they'll be down somewhat sequentially, which again, is consistent with the seasonality of this business. I will point out, back to your point, is that given the movement, as we said, given the movement that we are seeing in, and I would say, what we expect to see in our base domestic valve hydrant and brass products, and the shift from our Mueller Systems, that we do expect to see a richer conversion margin for Mueller Co. in the fourth quarter than what we saw in the third quarter, again, because of that mix and that movement on valves and hydrants.

Michael Wood
Analyst, Macquarie

Does your outlook for next quarter consider a snap back in the Canadian business? Do you expect that?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Actually, we think the Canadian business in units could be up slightly, but we're actually expecting that to be down because of currency exchange. On a year-over-year basis, Canada will have a somewhat negative impact on our year-over-year growth, primarily due to our exchange assumptions.

Michael Wood
Analyst, Macquarie

Great. Finally, could you give us some color in terms of what end markets drove the Anvil acceleration and growth, and were there any large projects in there that had an impact in terms of the incremental margin fall through in that business?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Yeah, Mike, as I said, it was coming out of the commercial construction market, but a little more regional. We saw some nice activity coming out of Texas. I wouldn't say there were any large particular projects. It was just overall a little higher capacity utilization that then lowers our per unit overhead costs, and that certainly drops to the bottom line. I think a combination of the higher pricing and some higher production contributed to the improvement in operating margins.

Michael Wood
Analyst, Macquarie

Great. Thank you.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Thank you.

Operator

Next is Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs. Your line is open

Jerry Revich
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Orders over the course of the quarter and into July here, I guess you're talking about shipments slowing in Mueller Co. I'm wondering if that's just a function of tougher comps, or is any part of that environment slowing at all up, as you see it?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Yes, Jerry, you're right. Actually, where it's slowing, we're saying it will slow sequentially. We still expect their shipments to be up year-over-year. Again, we'd say that that's typical. We'll see going at the end of the second quarter as a result of our price increase and certainly going into construction season in the third quarter, our shipments will be up. Distributors will carry greater inventory. As we start getting towards generally in the end of our fourth quarter of our fiscal year, when we start getting a couple of months out, construction season starts to drop off. From a sequential standpoint, this is a very typical pattern for us. Year-over-year, we do expect to see sales growth at the Mueller business.

I would say that when we look at the fourth quarter, that we think that the municipal market may be a little flattish, and we still expect to see growth in the residential market. When we look over the next, I would say next 12 months, 15 months in the municipal market, based on our input from our field, based on our input from our distributors, we still expect to see growth. I would say as we're looking three months out, the feedback we're getting is that the market could be flat, and we probably won't see much or any year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter coming from the municipal market.

Jerry Revich
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. That's helpful context. In terms of the lead times that you see now or year-over-year order growth, can you just put that into context for what you saw in the quarter?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Yeah. Our lead times of our products still fall in the three, four, five weeks for our domestic business. Certainly, international business can be longer.

Jerry Revich
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Greg, I apologize if I missed it. I know you mentioned the Mueller Systems and Echologics business face a tougher comp in the fourth fiscal quarter. Do you still expect double-digit growth in that business? Can you just put that into context for us, what you mean by moderated growth?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Yes. I would say, no, we don't expect to see double-digit growth. I'd say based on the push-out of projects, we said modest sales growth. I would say that we're looking at it just to be up a couple million dollars.

Jerry Revich
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Lastly, in terms of material costs here, can you just talk about, are they a greater benefit in Mueller Co. than Anvil? It sounds like based on the point on purchase components, it's probably a greater benefit in Mueller Co. I'm wondering if you could just confirm that for us.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Jerry, it's pretty close. The benefits actually may be a little better at Anvil because we source more components in the Mueller product than we do in the Anvil product. We're seeing lower raw material costs, we said, that's being offset by some of the components that we source. As I said, we source more components for Mueller products than we do on the Anvil side. I'd say Anvil in this quarter had a little more of a benefit from lower raw material costs than Mueller did.

Jerry Revich
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you very much.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Thanks, Jerry.

Operator

Walt. Walter Liptak, your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hi, thanks. Good quarter. I'm wanting to ask a follow-on to the material cost question. Is there anything that changes in terms of material cost hedges or material pricing as you get further into the year?

Evan L. Hart
Senior Vice President and CFO, Mueller Water Products

Yes, this is Evan. No, we do not hedge any raw materials. As Greg mentioned, we have seen some favorability with respect to what we classify as raw materials, but purchase components are up a little bit on a year-over-year basis. As we've gone through the year, we've had a benefit both in our Mueller Co. operations as well as Anvil, slightly more weighted Anvil because they're a little bit more raw material dependent. I would say that we've seen that favorability kind of throughout the year on a consistent basis and don't expect any changes as we finish out fiscal 2013.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. Okay, thank you.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Thanks, Walt.

Operator

Next question comes from Brent Thielman, D.A. Davidson. Your line is open, sir.

Brent Thielman
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Hi, good morning.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Morning, Brent.

Evan L. Hart
Senior Vice President and CFO, Mueller Water Products

Morning, Brent.

Brent Thielman
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Yeah. Greg, I'm not sure if you'd mentioned this, but could you quantify the negative impact of Canada on Mueller Co. this quarter?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Yeah. On the sales side, sales were down $3 million from the previous year.

Brent Thielman
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Perfect. Thanks. Obviously great margins here in Anvil. Would you characterize these sort of towards the higher end of your expectations for this segment or do you think there's more to go?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Brent, we think as capacity utilization increases, that we could still see higher margins in the Anvil business As we've, over the last couple of years, talked about the restructuring we've done, and our lean initiatives, I think we've continued to get more efficient in our facilities. I think as we see overall capacity utilization increasing, and I think that our commercial construction markets still are, I think, forecasted to have a very slow growth, but at least growing the next couple of years, that I think that we would expect to have the ability to earn some higher margins. It's also dependent, as we've mentioned several times in the past, we do import products, branded products from offshore and sell into the marketplace and we produce domestically. Obviously, the more we produce domestically, the higher our margins are going to be.

I think all in all, that we've said that on an EBITDA margin range, that we think that 15%-16% can be achievable. I think as our capacity utilization goes up and if our mix stays the same relative to domestic produce versus what we bring in offshore, we could still see a little more upside in these margins.

Brent Thielman
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Okay, that's great. I imagine debt reduction is still the focus here, thinking a little further out as you continue to lever the balance sheet to a point where you like, can you talk about your views on sort of share buybacks or potentially a larger dividend?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Yeah, Brent, that's a topic that we discuss with our board. We discuss it regularly. You're right, share buyback was not something that we discussed the last several years. As we move forward, I think it certainly could be something that comes on the agenda as well as the dividend. A couple of years ago when our markets were really depressed, we elected to still continue to pay a dividend. That was very important for us to continue to do so. Analyzing dividends and what is the right dividend is something that's on the table. Though I will say, and I'll ask Evan to comment on this, that probably what we could do on dividends and share buyback is somewhat limited by our covenants.

Evan L. Hart
Senior Vice President and CFO, Mueller Water Products

That's right. Under our indentures, we are limited to the amount of dividends that we can pay on an annual basis, roughly about $15 million, as well as limited on the share buyback as well. Certainly, we evaluate all of these alternatives as well as evaluate the capital structure. As you mentioned, certainly debt reduction as we move forward continues to be a focus. We have the ability under our indentures to take out $65 million of our subordinated notes under a restricted payment basket. That would be the next de-leveraging opportunity that we have going forward. All of these capital structure options are things that we consider.

Brent Thielman
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Okay. Lastly, one for you, Evan. Obviously, you have some NOLs available to offset cash taxes this year. Are those available for next year as well, or how do we kind of think about payment of cash taxes into 2014?

Evan L. Hart
Senior Vice President and CFO, Mueller Water Products

Certainly, we said that cash income taxes would be minimal this year. Coming into this year, we had about a tax value of $64 million of NOLs coming into fiscal 2013. We have utilized some in this year. We will provide the actual ending balance when we finalize and close the year and publish our 10-K. There will be NOLs that will continue on into 2014 to shield cash taxes. The NOLs that we have don't expire until 2029. We can utilize those commensurate with generation of net income.

Brent Thielman
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Great. Thanks, guys.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Thanks, Brent.

Operator

Our final question today comes from Deane Dray, Truist Bank. Your line is open.

Deane Dray
Analyst, Citi

Good morning, guys.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Good morning.

Evan L. Hart
Senior Vice President and CFO, Mueller Water Products

Morning.

Deane Dray
Analyst, Citi

As you look at the Mueller Co. business, I appreciate all the color you've given on the call, can you talk a little bit about how much did the reading/AMI business impact the overall margin in the segment this quarter?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Yeah. When you look at our new technology businesses, we improved about $3 million year-over-year, we still had a negative $1 million from these businesses. It reduced Mueller's overall operating income by $1 million.

Deane Dray
Analyst, Citi

Okay, great. Thank you. Then as you look at both of your segments, can you let us know where capacity utilization is, please?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

When you look at our Mueller business, we're in about the mid-60% range, Anvil is just slightly less than that. As I said, we're up slightly. We're up from where we were a year ago, but I think still, I think Mueller in the mid-60% and Anvil slightly less.

Deane Dray
Analyst, Citi

Okay, great. Thank you. Then last question. With regard to Anvil, I know you talked about how regionally you had said commercial construction has been picking up a bit. When we talked about Texas, where exactly are your parts going in Texas? What kind of jobs or what kind of end markets exactly?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

What we're seeing on the Anvil business, and I said it's a little spotty, institutional investment is down, industrial is mixed, some of the other areas, such as hospitality, it's project related, that we saw a nice opportunity. We saw some real opportunity this past quarter.

Deane Dray
Analyst, Citi

Okay, great. With the pullback commodities and just the commodity-like nature of the products, are you seeing more competition come in at Anvil?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

I would not say any more competition, but I think that what we're always watching is if there's a shift going from the domestic produced product to offshore. As I said earlier, I answered one of the questions. We source our products offshore, branded products offshore, and I think that what we could expect is we may see the offshore product gaining a little more share as these markets improve.

Deane Dray
Analyst, Citi

Okay. All right. Thank you very much. I appreciate it. Good luck next quarter.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Thank you very much.

Operator

Kevin Maczka, BB&T Capital Markets, your line is open.

Kevin Maczka
Analyst, BB&T Capital Markets

Hi, just to piggyback on some of these earlier questions about your Mueller Systems or your newer tech products, did you say they're running somewhere around in the mid-20s per quarter?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Yes. That's asking. I think over the last couple of quarters on the revenue basis, combining our leak detection and Mueller Systems, I'd say in the mid-20s, anywhere from 20 to the mid-20 is a pretty good range.

Kevin Maczka
Analyst, BB&T Capital Markets

Okay. Just real quick, I know the sales were up pretty strong, like about 70% in the quarter for those newer tech products. Did I understand correctly, you clearly don't see that going forward in Q4?

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Well, no, we don't see it going up in the Q4, the biggest reason contributing to that, the two reasons, one, we anniversary late in the third quarter the big contract that we received last year. That is now in our comparison numbers. Plus, we've seen a bit of a push-out on some projects that we thought were going to be awarded and that we would win and be awarded in the third quarter, they have yet to be awarded. We think it's very unlikely that we would be able to ship those in the fourth quarter if we win those.

Kevin Maczka
Analyst, BB&T Capital Markets

Okay. All right, great. Thank you.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Thank you.

Kevin Maczka
Analyst, BB&T Capital Markets

Thank you.

Operator

That does conclude the question and answer segment of today's conference.

Gregory E. Hyland
Chairman, President, and CEO, Mueller Water Products

Well, thanks again for your interest in Mueller Water Products and your questions today, and look forward to seeing you on the road and talking with you next quarter.

Operator

That does conclude today's presentation. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.