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27th Annual Needham Growth Conference

Jan 14, 2025

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Thank you for joining us on the first day here at Needham 27th Annual Growth Conference. I'll get that word out right.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

By tomorrow.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

I'm Quinn Bolton. I'm the semiconductor analyst for Needham. Thanks for joining us. My pleasure to host this fireside chat with MaxLinear. MaxLinear is a leading supplier of RF analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for the broadband and connectivity infrastructure and industrial markets. Joining me on stage is Steve Litchfield, Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, and in the audience, we have Leslie Green, who handles investor relations for the company. Steve, Leslie, thank you for joining us at the Needham Growth Conference.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Thank you very much for having us.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Maybe, Steve, just at a high level, MaxLinear is sort of undergoing a transformation from a broadband-focused company to an infrastructure-focused company. Maybe start by providing a high-level overview of the company and sort of where you're focused.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Sure, sure. Yeah, thanks. Yeah, look, we're an analog mixed-signal player, and I would emphasize the mixed-signal piece. I mean, analog and RF has kind of been our core expertise. That's what the company was founded on. Participated in a lot of markets over the years. Went public in 2010, but really kind of analog-ish. But we did kind of get some traction within the broadband markets and kind of grew that over a number of years.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Sorry.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Have grown that particular business, but call it five, six years ago, we really focused around the infrastructure market, and infrastructure is really two big areas. One is data center, and the other is wireless infrastructure, and so we put a lot of investment into both of those markets and have a lot of traction. If I go 2023, we had $170-ish million of revenue. We see this business growing upwards of $300 million-$500 million over the next few years, and I mean, it kind of justified. These are new markets, big, sticky opportunities, long product life cycles, tough technologies, and it fits really well with what we do.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Perfect. Kind of getting into some industry and general questions. Back in October, we reported the third quarter or as you mentioned you saw meaningful improvements in customer order rates with some expedites placed within lead times. Generally speaking, has this momentum continued in the fourth quarter? Do you sort of feel the business is past the trough at this point?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, look, I mean, it's been a tough two years from a cyclical standpoint. I think we are starting to see it finally turn. Frankly, we thought we'd see it turn at multiple times, but it just kind of that cycle that just kept giving. But I think the back half of the year, we definitely saw things improve. Bookings have definitely continued to improve. We've had five to six quarters of bookings improvement. The other thing, starting backlogs in multiple quarters have improved. So I think all the signs are there. You mentioned the expedites. We talked a little bit about some of the expedites that we've been seeing. I would say we're starting to see a little more normalcy in the order patterns. I mean, we have 18- 20 week lead times.

So say over the last six to nine months, we would get orders really late, and we couldn't actually satisfy those orders because we didn't have the inventory. But that was okay with the customer. I think we've finally turned the corner on that, and customers are starting to say, "Hey, if I need product, I'm going to have to place orders out beyond that 20 weeks to make sure I'm not supplying a supply chain crunch." I'm just saying that it's much better from their standpoint because they weren't getting product. And so that's super helpful in just managing the business, forecasting the business, planning the business, even sharing with you guys. So that's definitely changed and given us a lot more confidence.

So as I think about 2025, while I see this recovery underway, we've also got a lot of new products, and I'm sure you'll have a question or two about how those new products start to play also.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

I assume if they're ordering to 18- 20-plus-week lead times, that gives you a little bit better visibility into certainly the next quarter, maybe even the next two quarters.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

So that's right. I mean, in our businesses, we have a little bit of turns business that we'll book and ship in a quarter, but two-thirds of it anyway is typically in backlog. That's what we've seen historically. So right now, we're booking business for late Q2, Q3 timeframe, is really what we're focused on.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Perfect. Are there any end markets where you still see pockets of inventory, maybe industrial, multi-market, broadband? How are you feeling about these?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, I mean, each of these markets kind of set up a little differently. I mean, I would say that historically, we've just had a little less inventory challenges in the infrastructure market, so that hasn't been as big of a problem. Broadband connectivity has been the bigger one. We're starting to see that turn. Industrial, I mean, I'm sure you guys have talked to a lot of these customers that have competitors, peers that are quite a bit bigger or have more exposure here. I mean, they were later into this downturn, and I think it's probably got a little ways to go. I don't feel like it's going to get a whole lot worse, but it might have a little bit longer to kind of get through that.

I do think we'll see some modest growth in 2025 from industrial, but it probably takes a couple of quarters to get into.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Okay. Last general question. Any impact from higher import tariffs on China if the Trump administration enacts higher tariffs?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

You can explain to me exactly what that means.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Does it change on a daily basis?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

If you could tell me what's going to happen next year, I could tell you how it would impact us. We're watching closely. I always think of us as we kind of play in the middle of the market. We're not a leading-edge, low-geometry AI processor company. So I don't think we're in sensitive areas. We don't do a lot of aerospace defense type of stuff either. So I think we're in a part of the market where we're less exposed to this. We have had a little bit of exposure to China. In 2019, we were impacted quite a bit from these tariffs. But I think most of those folks have moved out, and so I think we've got less exposure now, knock on wood, that that turns out to be the case this time.

But I think all in, I think it's a little, I mean, not much exposure.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

But that impact in 2019 was more the indirect impact of your customers were manufacturing in China and then importing into the U.S. And so there was the impact there. It's not a direct effect on manufacturing.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

So that's correct. Yeah, that was an indirect effect. I mean, we had customers that moved out of China. Our customers were manufacturing there, and they moved. That is correct. We do a little bit of manufacturing in China. It's not much.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Okay. Okay, let's get to some of the fun stuff. Infrastructure, optical, probably one of the strongest growth drivers here in the next year. You guys have been on a pretty nice ramp at the end of 2024, and it looks like that's going to continue into 2025. Talk about, I think you've said you were working with multiple module vendors to qualify at leading hyperscalers. Can you give us some sense? Do you expect to ship to multiple hyperscalers this year?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

So.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

I won't ask you to name names.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

You may ask me.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

I may ask you, but I know what the answer will be.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

So I know, Quinn. I mean, maybe it goes without saying, but in this market, I mean, we've got to be engaged directly with the data center guys themselves, hyperscalers included, Tier 1, China, I mean, everybody. And I would say that we have that engagement, and I think we will ship into multiple data centers in 2025. I think it's been, I think it also maybe goes without saying that these module vendors, I mean, we're having to broaden our kind of footprint there. And we've worked very hard on getting more design wins, qualifications with multiple module vendors. As you know, most of the bigger guys are using three or four of these guys apiece. And so as we get more modules qualified into a data center, then what we're finding is they end up being our greatest salesman.

They're going off saying, "Hey, I've got a qualified MaxLinear-based transceiver, and we can get those quals at the new customer," right? And so as I think about, I mean, if I think of customer concentration, is there one guy that's going to dominate those revenues? Look, I mean, you got a handful of hyperscalers, several, I guess all of which we're working with at some level. Could it be one guy that dominates? It could be. But I think as I look at the backdrop right now, I think we've got several design wins, and I actually think there'll be multiple customers that'll drive that revenue next year.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Great. You've also talked about the hyperscaler qualification process is lengthy. It's costly, and hyperscalers probably wouldn't invest that time to qualify you to only give you a 5% share. Kind of makes sense. For the calls that you've passed, are you seeing sort of pretty good market share of the expected volumes? I mean, I think you're targeting sort of 20%-30% share of that market over time. Are you kind of being awarded that type of share of some of these projects?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, so I don't think I could have said it any better. I think that's exactly right.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

I think I was quoting you from a conference call.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Since I saw you last week at CES. I think that's right, though. We've targeted 25% of the market. We do think we can achieve that. We think we've got the right technology, the right power benefits, and the like. I mean, this is a lot of work on the interop side. And so they're not going to waste the time or the resources if they're not going to give you significant share. You referenced people that we're in production with now. Yeah, they're using us by no means as near this 10% level. I mean, it's upwards of 50%-100% in a lot of cases. So there are opportunities where we're winning the whole thing, and there's others that we're calling it winning half of it.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Yeah, but it's well above 5%.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Correct, correct. And if I think of that 25%-30%, I mean, how fast can we achieve that? As I think of the addressable market, I mean, next year is probably what, $1.6 billion-$1.8 billion, and maybe potentially on the lower side. But it's a big number. Now, that includes 200, 400, 800, 1.6T. And so we're really focused on 800 gig. We definitely have some 400 gig shipping, and then next year, we'll start to see 1.6 come into play.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Your biggest differentiation in DSP is lower power. What kind of power savings are you achieving at the module level versus the Marvells, the Broadcoms in the market?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, so our customers measuring this at the module level, it's about 20% lower power. And so you can imagine these data center guys, that's where they're having trouble, right? That's where they want to see. They're buying nuclear reactors for goodness' sake. So if they could buy a MaxLinear chip and not buy a nuclear reactor, that could work out well for us. But this is something that has been a differentiator against the competition, and I think it's why we're getting more traction in the market. And we think this continues even as we get into the next generation chip as well.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Perfect. Maybe putting this into dollars and cents. You've talked about the business being a little bit north of $30 million this year, I think with an exit rate of $12 million-$15 million in Q4. First off, are those still kind of the right ranges for folks to be thinking about?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

It's consistent, yeah.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

How do you think about 2025? What kind of revenue are you comfortable with for this business?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, look, so because we've been focused around 800 gig, I mean, it was a little bit back-end loaded, but we're starting to get into production. Qualifications are finishing. So I think it sets up fairly well. I know a number of folks, I'm not sure where you have your models, but it's close to $60-$70 million, I think, is a number that I hear a lot. I think that seems reasonable. The market's growing quite a bit. I think one could argue, well, why can't it be higher? And I think there's some gives and takes. I mean, 800 gig market opportunity, while a lot of hyperscalers are adopting the first half of the year, some are in the second half of the year. And so it kind of depends on how fast that happens.

The risk would be if they don't happen or they get pushed into 2026. But the upside certainly would be that they ramp on time, and then we get additional share. Or some of these qualifications finish up and start to ramp beyond where we have expectations. But I think that's a reasonable estimate. Actually, as I look at, not to look out too far, but in 2026, 800 gig kind of gets adopted by year-end. So you can imagine that run rate actually goes up quite a bit in 2026, even before 1.6 starts to contribute.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Right. One question I've gotten from investors, that exit rate in Q4 of $12million-$ 15 million, you're probably already annualizing near the lower end of that 60 to 70. Is there any business in the fourth quarter or the second half year of 2024 that rolls off, like a project ends that's a significant headwind, or is it really you're kind of at that level, and then to lift off that level, it's really a timing of these new 800 gig platforms?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

I mean, it really is a good question. Are there some that'll roll off in the back half?

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

I mean, there are. But I'd also say that we've got, I don't know, more than that that are really just coming on. And again, keep in mind, 800's really just beginning. I mean, with the exception of NVIDIA, most of these other data centers are just now adopting it. So I actually see a lot more upside in the back. Now, you've got a couple of bigger hyperscaler guys that are anticipating ramps in the very end and in some cases even into 2026. So I think that's where some of our caution is, is just more about how fast the 800 happen. And today, I just think we just want to be conservative with our expectations here rather than getting ahead of this.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

The other question we've gotten is just, are you seeing any significant price declines in the DSP as you go from 2024 to 2025 into 2026? And is there an ASP headwind that you're fighting?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah. The way I think about ASPs is, I mean, I think we're seeing more or less what we anticipated from an ASP reduction, right? I mean, as 800 gets adopted, 400 gig comes down from an ASP standpoint. As volumes go up, I mean, you start to see ASP decreases. I haven't seen a precipitous decline in ASPs. So I wouldn't say that we're worried about ASPs falling off faster than what we thought.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Can you give us an update on your 4 nm 1.6 Tb Rushmore DSP? Yeah, I think you've got silicon back or about to have silicon back, I assume probably something you'll be showing off at OFC in March.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, so we are excited about Rushmore. As I think about the whole year, I mean, a lot of the work that we'll be doing this year is getting those design wins. Yes, certainly, we'll talk more about this at OFC coming up in March. And we'll be able to talk, I mean, I think all indications are we're going to be with that power advantage again, which is important. As I see it, I mean, we'll get those design wins this year and then start to see a ramp in 2026 with 1.6, which I think is fairly consistent with the kind of market expectation, with the exception of NVIDIA.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Right, right. And it even sounds like the NVIDIA volumes are fairly.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Modest.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Yeah, modest and probably second half weighted. Another topical question in the optical module space is LPO to LRO versus full DSP-based optics. Some of your peers have talked about seeing increasing interest in the LRO solution, which uses the DSP in only the transmit direction, not the receive direction. Are you seeing what you are seeing on that front in terms of the different flavors of optical markets?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, look, it's an exciting market, big growing. Everyone's trying to figure out how to do this faster, cheaper, more efficient. How do I get rid of a DSP? We've heard a lot about direct drive for some time now, and there's some applications that can go in that direction. LRO has kind of emerged as a nice alternative. I mean, we've been working with customers for almost two years now on LRO applications. We demonstrated several of those last year at OFC, and we haven't seen adoption. I mean, I actually think that we're probably a little bit surprised that we haven't seen more adoption in the market. I'm talking about the market here. I'm not talking about MaxLinear, but I think that's the more logical direction. I think the reason maybe that we haven't is performance has mattered more, right? They're unwilling to compromise on performance.

And so until they're willing to compromise or until performance gets a lot better, you're likely to see this continual solution, yeah.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Okay. Wireless infrastructure, both access and backhaul is another big part of your infrastructure business. Last quarter, you sort of said you were starting to see some activity in terms of telco, CapEx, with maybe some momentum picking up in the back half of next year. Just at a high level, what are you seeing in terms of carrier spending, both on the access front and the backhaul?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah. So look, wireless infrastructure was really tough in 2024 as CapEx spending came down. I think our expectations in 2025 is that we'll see some recovery. Now, I think there was never a huge amount of inventory that I would say in the channel, but there was probably a little bit out there. And so I think we see that improve. I think telco spending maybe improves a little bit. I don't think we're expecting anything robust. But certainly, we'll see a recovery in 2025, and we've already got decent visibility on that. But I guess I would anticipate even more growth in 2026 as real CapEx dollars start to flow a little bit better. I don't feel like it's going to be that great this year, but I do think we'll see improvements. You mentioned our backhaul and access.

Look, backhaul is probably a little bit bigger for us. I think we have a little bit better visibility there. Seeing some good signs there, some good content increases with our transceiver. The market itself seems to be, I'll say, recovering reasonably well. There's a lot of different applications that are increasing there. There's different geographies. I mean, we talked a lot about India and Europe and some of these other areas that are improving. So I think backhaul will improve nicely this year. Access, maybe a little less growth from a CapEx standpoint. This is where, though, we do have a new chip that we introduced.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Sierra.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

The Sierra chip, that's right, that we introduced at MWC last year. I think that improves. It has a big content increase, almost 2x the content increase as we have a digital front end, which you had never had before. And that'll pull content away from the FPGA, in some cases away from an ASIC. And so that content increase helps us to grow the revenue line. So I think ultimately, CapEx will come back, but it's still a little bit early.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Got it. And are you feeling pretty good about the design wins for Sierra with that higher dollar content?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

So we do. I'd say it's on track from a design win standpoint. These take a little bit of time to roll out. I mean, the great thing about wireless infrastructure is that once you get designed in, they're there forever. The bad thing is they take a long time to get designed in and to start production.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Perfect. I guess last question on the infrastructure business, your Panther storage accelerators for compression and encryption. You've mentioned that Panther is gaining traction across enterprise storage, compute server applications. Maybe talk about just one doing acceleration at the hardware level with a Panther solution versus doing it in software on a CPU.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Right, yeah. So this is a chip that, I mean, does offload. So as the CPU or the processor needs continue to go up and the number of cores that these guys are using, the ability to offload ends up being incredibly valuable to them just from a cost and efficiency standpoint. So it's been something that's been really interesting to our customer base. And I would say that to date, it's been a lot more enterprise server focused. I mean, there's some flash array guys that this makes a lot of sense for. But I think it can even broaden out further into hyperscalers potentially. And so we've gotten a lot of good feedback in this area. It is a more robust solution. I mean, your point about software compression versus hardware, hardware is just, it's a much bigger lift there. And there's certain applications that demand that.

And so we've seen it. I mean, the real competitor, I mean, Intel has QCT. It is a software solution that they offer their customers. And in a lot of cases, that works and it's sufficient. But when they need more compression, then our solution fits perfectly. We've also seen good adoption from AMD. AMD doesn't have a solution, and they've done a reference design with us. And it's been real good because they've been out in the field working with their customers. And where customers need that, they can offer our solution or kind of recommend it on a reference design basis. So both of those are getting good adoption.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Perfect. And I think in the past, you've sort of talked about this becoming maybe a $50 million-$75 million annualized business in maybe a year or two. Is that still sort of the right?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, I think that's right. It's a fairly small business today. I mean, I think last year we probably did 10-15 in this particular business. 50-75 is kind of the right ballpark. The question is how fast. And what I mean by that, we've got several customers that have already designed us in on multiple SKUs, and we just continue to get more and more SKUs.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Based on the rate of the ramp.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, so then these guys do take a little bit of time to ramp, but I'm encouraged.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Perfect. Let's switch over to broadband and Wi-Fi. It's been a pretty tough market over the past couple of years, as you sort of said earlier. I think revenue in these segments down roughly 80% in 2024 versus the peak in 2022. Are you feeling that we're kind of cleared most of the inventory and probably out or bouncing off the bottom? What are you generally seeing in terms of end demand and broadband and connectivity?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, no, it really has been a tough couple of years. I think we're finally seeing the bottom here. We definitely saw an overbuild in kind of 2021. Then with the supply chain crisis, I think there is even more of an overbuild or an overpurchase anyway. And I think we're finally getting through that. The order patterns are starting to recover. Demand in general, I feel like it's getting a little bit better. So there's kind of two pieces of this. We always kind of see ourselves as kind of an arms dealer. We really don't care whether it's cable or whether it's fixed wireless or PON or fiber, whatever. It doesn't make any difference to us. And we're driving similar levels of content. If you think of a gateway in your home, there's $40 plus dollars of content from MaxLinear in that.

And so I think demand is improving a little bit. I think we finally kind of got to the bottom here. I would point out, and we can talk about both sides of this, Quinn, but we've been really underexposed to PON. And I would say that the PON, one, PON is twice as big as the cable business.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Than the market.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, at the market level. But we didn't participate in that. So about three years ago, concerted effort to go off and win business there. And I think we've made some pretty good traction. I mean, we were literally less than $10 million three years ago. Last year was probably ended up being $50 million-$70 million. But I think we see a pretty clear path to get well north of $100 million continuing to grow. We had a big win with one of the large North America PON providers. And that ended up being a nice lighthouse win for us. And we could kind of point to and say, "Hey, it's not just cable. We're winning in PON." And that was well received. We're winning more business today. North America and Europe primarily, probably a little less exposed to Asia. But that is one big area of growth.

As I think about growth next year, I mean, PON is going to be a nice contributor. Then I think cable will recover, maybe not back to those 22 levels, but I do expect a nice recovery.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

But pass.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yes.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Past the bottom.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Past the bottom, correct.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Perfect. For both cable and PON, are you starting to see any benefits from BEAD funding starting to flow? Or is that second half 2025? Is it 2026?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Maybe you guys, I think everyone has different views on this. I do think the BEAD funding subsidies, if you will, definitely help out from those CapEx dollars flowing. I mean, outlook has been good. There's a number of customers that do expect to get some BEAD funding, and that'll definitely help them.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Perfect. Moving to connectivity, what are you seeing on the Wi-Fi market? Maybe talk a little bit about design win momentum in Wi-Fi 7 and sort of the content uplift, Wi-Fi 7 over 6 and 6E.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Sure, yeah. So Wi-Fi 7 is something that's kind of just beginning. I mean, we would expect revenues in the second half of this year. Most of the work that we've been doing probably over the last 12 months has been winning new sockets with our Wi-Fi 7 solution, often incorporating with PON or incorporating with cable, whichever is needed. But I am optimistic about Wi-Fi 7 adoption. It's a little slower, but it has a higher ASP, as you mentioned. We're talking about $15 per chipset versus the $12-ish dollars per chipset on Wi-Fi 6. As much as the slow adoption is still there, Wi-Fi 6 is still gaining traction too. So as long as we continue to win Wi-Fi 6 and Wi-Fi 7, we see higher ASPs and continue to grow that business and broaden the business as well.

I mean, a lot of the business today has been around service providers. As we win more service providers, we get more attached. But we also are able to grow in the third-party router space as well. And that'll be some incremental volume for 2025 and 2026.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Perfect. On the ethernet side, it kind of sounds a little bit maybe like Panther. You guys continue to accumulate more and more wins in the 2.5 gig PHYs and enterprise and SMB market. Can you talk about that ramp? Is that large North America customers that are still on track to ramp middle of 2025 plus or minus? And what are the expectations on ethernet?

Sure. Yeah. So I mean, ethernet is exciting. There's a transition going from 1 gig to 2.5 gig in the market. Now, when we started this business, it was really targeted to go off the attach for a gateway. And we did, I think, a really good job of that. That got up to $40-plus million, but before really pulling back in 2024. And I think it'll, I don't know, mid- to high 30s maybe is where it lands. But I see the path to, one, recover that naturally as more and more of those boxes get upgraded. And then we just see a recovery of gateways in general. But we've really spent a lot of time and energy on growing the market beyond broadband, so growing into the industrial space. I mean, there's tons of applications that use 1 gig ethernet across lots of manufacturing.

I mean, just tons of different applications that are starting to adopt our solution. So that's great. You mentioned the enterprise space. I mean, yeah, the big North America enterprise switch guy did start to design us in probably six to nine months ago now. So we'll start to see that happen in the second half of this year. We continue to win more SKUs there along with different switch manufacturers as well, and these are 4-port, 8-port, 16-port switches that are sitting in probably the hallway or behind that counter there, wherever it is. So these are everywhere, and a lot of them were 1 gig. They're all being upgraded to 2.5 gig. So it's a little higher ASP, but a bigger opportunity or a catalyst to get our products designed in. Competitive landscape has historically been Broadcom and Marvell. They have bigger fish to fry, I think.

And so that's been helpful. And I think that's part of the reason why customers have come to us looking for an alternative.

On the industrial multi-market side, you sort of talked about still a little bit of inventory overhang, but you think that business can grow this year. Maybe just spend a minute just talking about what are you seeing in China within that market? How big is China within industrial and multi-market? And what's the outlook?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah, I did mention, I mean, industrials, I still think it's got a little more to go. It's going to give a little bit more, but I don't think it gets a whole lot worse. In 2024, we did have some impact. China domestic demand was very weak, and we definitely were impacted by that, and hopefully, we see at least a little bit of recovery there. You do have domestic supply that's playing a bigger role. We have a pretty diverse portfolio, so maybe that's not a huge impact on us. We did have $15 million-$20 million worth of product that were impacted by export control in this area, and I feel like that's over. That was into a company that was on the Entity List, so that is less of a risk going forward. We don't ship a lot under license today.

So all in, I mean, this is a really broad portfolio. I think we can make improvements on it, meaning I think we'll see some recovery, but it is probably a little back end loaded for 2025.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Okay. Last question for me, just thoughts about the balance sheet use of cash or priorities. Are you letting cash just accumulate on the balance sheet in the near term? I know you've got the arbitration with SIMO. What are your thoughts on M&A maybe as that process concludes?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah. So with regard to the balance sheet, I mean, we had some sizable cuts with the lower revenue level, but also just kind of transitioning in general. OpEx is coming down 20%-25% next year. We'll, I think, break even, I don't know, somewhere in kind of Q2-ish timeframe. Cash flow starts to accumulate. I mean, we'd like to get back to acquisition, but I think that's a little further out at this point. So right now, just accumulate and just build that cash inventory right now.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Okay. We'll stop there and see if there are any questions from the audience.

Do you feel like you would need to wait for the SIMO stuff to be cleared up to make acquisitions?

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

I think it depends. I think anything sizable, we would wait. I don't think there's an urgency to get that done right now. So I think it'll get resolved, and then we can get back to that maybe the following year.

Maybe a little bit of a tough question, but if you are so well positioned with your hyperscale customers with 800 gig, why haven't you seen any warrants?

Any warrants?

Yeah.

That's a funny question. You're starting to see more of that in the market. Definitely seeing more customers. I mean, Amazon specifically, right, has done a few of these deals. Yeah, I think it's interesting to kind of see this old-school idea come back into the market. I think it's not surprising. Look, just like we're looking to win more business kind of across all of data center. I mean, we have a unique set of capabilities. I mean, one with our DSP, but I mean, I would say it even broader than that from a capability standpoint to solve a lot of these needs. I think you would expect us to continue to deepen the relationships that we have with the data center guys as well as the module vendors.

But I think the opportunity comes in the data center as I think of it, their problems get bigger and bigger, right? And they may be kind of nichey little problems within their network that they need to go off and solve. I think MaxLinear, with our capabilities and some of the IPs that we have, we're very well positioned to take advantage of it.

Quinn Bolton
Semiconductor Analyst, Needham

Any other questions? Okay. We'll go ahead and wrap here.

Great. Thank you very much for joining us for the Needham Growth Conference.

Steve Litchfield
Chief Strategy Officer and CFO, MaxLinear

Yeah. Thank you.

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