Good afternoon, and welcome to the Nabors Industries Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the Star key followed by 0 . After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may withdraw your question. Please press Star and then 2 . Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to William Conroy, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining Nabors Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today, we will follow our customary format with Tony Petrello, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and William Restrepo, our Chief Financial Officer, providing their perspectives on the quarter's results, along with insights into our markets and how we expect of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties as disclosed by Nabors from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, during the call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures such as net debt, adjusted operating income, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow. All references to EBITDA made by either Tony or William during their presentations, whether qualified by the word adjusted or otherwise, earnings release.
Likewise, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, references to cash flow mean adjusted free cash flow as that non-GAAP measure.
Following our usual format. Our operational execution remains strong across our global markets. Our average rig count for the Q2 increased by 8 rigs. This rig count growth in U.S. and Middle East markets. Adjusted EBITDA in our Drilling Solutions segment increased by nearly 14% sequentially. We made additional progress to reduce net debt. Our net debt declined to less than $2.2 billion, a $33 million improvement. Daily rig margins in the Lower 48 continue their upward trend. Average daily margins there increased by more than $1,000 in the Q2 and exceeded $8,700.
The results demonstrate progress on both fronts. The rig market remains highly focused on premium rigs and performance. We also have an unmatched portfolio of technologies in our Drilling Solutions business. This portfolio is one of the keys to our drilling performance and an important differentiator. I will discuss this in more detail in a few moments. Next, let's discuss. It improved significantly. This measure increased by nearly $1,200 to $14,331. Our performance was strong across our markets. Financial results in this segment comfortably exceeded our prior outlook. Saudi Arabia and Laco deployed an enhanced M-1200 series rig. This is our most advanced rig in the country. It includes our proprietary operating system, full AC capability, as well as an upgraded mast and substructure.
We expect this rig's performance will showcase in the region the full potential of Nabors' advanced technology portfolio, especially in unconventional development. Saudi's first in-kingdom new build rig was commissioned during the Q2 . The rig spudded its first well in early July. This is an important milestone for the joint venture. We expect to add new builds at approximately 1 per quarter going forward. Each new build should contribute annual adjusted EBITDA of approximately $10 million during their initial 6-year contracts. With these economics and the deployment of the first rig, positions us to this venture. Now let's discuss our technology and innovation. There is no question that our advanced technology is one of the cornerstones of Nabors' more than $2,200 per day. The typical Nabors rig in the Lower 48 runs 6 NDS services.
This metric has increased steadily and reflects the strong value proposition of the portfolio. Among automation and digital SmartSLIDE, SmartNAV, as well as RigCLOUD analytics. In the Q2 , we continued to make progress targeting the third-party rig market. Drilling pace grew sequentially by 7%. I'll wrap up my comments on our technology with a brief update on our robotics offering. As mentioned previously, this strategy enables us to deploy these technologies at a small fraction of the cost for a new build. It also significantly increases the addressable market for these innovations. Next, let's discuss our progress to improve our capital structure. In the Q2 , we again reduced net debt. Driven primarily by excellent free cash flow, we drove net debt below the $2.2 billion mark.
We remain focused on generating free cash flow as we continue to delever the capital structure and improve the balance sheet. I'll finish this part of the discussion with remarks on ESG and the energy transition. We remain committed to our strong environmental stewardship. In line with this strategy, we continue to progress along with our three investments in three high-potential companies. The first focuses on monitoring and measuring GHG and other emissions. The second focuses on commercial products should be available this year. Now I will spend a few minutes on the macro environment. The Q2 95. Since then, the price has retreated into the low to mid-90s. The futures price of WTI, 24 months out, stands at the 77 level. This is 20% higher than its price 24 months out from December of last year.
This pricing outlook provides returns that would incentivize operators to increase their drilling activity, increase by 13% in the Q2 . Once again, we surveyed the largest Lower 48 clients at the end of the Q2 . This group accounts for 30% of the working rig count. Our survey indicates a planned increase in activity of more than 11% for this group by the end of the Q4 . The pricing environment for rigs remains bullish. Our average daily revenue increased by more than $2,500 sequentially. This was our own leading-edge day rates are now approaching the mid-30s. With the potential demand indicated by our survey, we see pricing on day rates and margins. For our idle high-spec rigs, we see reactivation CapEx and spending ranging from an average of $2 million for the next technology.
That investment would require term and day rates in the mid-40s. We are focused on maintaining well-defined metrics and discipline regarding high-spec capacity additions. As you can see, it would be a difficult, if not financially irrational, decision for the industry to build new rigs into the current market. As such, we expect the market will remain capacity constrained for some time to come. In our international markets, there's strong demand to add rigs in several markets. In particular, we have visibility to additional standard new builds in Saudi Arabia.
Tendering activity has also picked up across markets. We have the rigs and relationships to support those plans. We have seen increased interest by international clients to add our NDS services. As an example, automation, software, and managed pressure drilling are gaining traction. Looking forward, there are a few issues that could impact our industry.
Recent events in the credit markets, heightened fears of a recession, and a contraction in global oil demand are all potential risks to industry fundamentals. We have not seen any changes in our customers' behavior following recent moves by the Fed. We remain, however, vigilant to the impact these factors could have on the forward outlook. The labor market in the U.S. remains tight. Timely crewing for additional rigs remains an area of focus. We have taken a number of steps to attract employees and increase retention. We continue to see some upward pressure on costs across our supply chain, as well as extended lead times for certain materials. Our internal manufacturing operation continues to pay dividends. We can lever its global sourcing network to help ensure operational continuity, both for Nabors' rigs and for our third-party customers.
To sum up, signals in our markets point to increased drilling activity globally. The higher oil price environment and limited spare capacity for oil production are incentivizing clients to increase activity. Operators appear to remain confident in a constructive commodity price outlook. With the disruption from the conflict in Ukraine, we see a reorientation of international natural gas markets. This could spur additional activity as well. Now, let me turn the call over to William, who will discuss our financial results and guidance.
Thank you, Tony. The Q2 results were significantly better than we expected across all our segments. Increased pricing, higher activity levels, and strong operational performance more than offset cost pressure in certain markets. In the Q2 , the net loss from continuing operations was $83 million, an improvement of $101 million as compared to the prior quarter. Both periods had non-cash charges related to the mark-to-market accounting treatment of Nabors' warrants. The Q2 results included $22 million as compared to $72 million in the Q1 . Adjusted operating income for the Q2 of -$4 million improved by $30 million sequentially. We expect this operational profitability metric to turn positive in the Q3 .
Revenue from operations for the Q2 was $631 million, compared to $569 million in the first, an 11% improvement. All of our segments contributed to the growth. U.S. drilling revenue increased by 16% to $253 million. Lower 48 revenue grew by more than 20% on higher rig count and an increase of over $2,500 in average daily revenue, an 11% increase from the Q1 . Coming into the Q2 , almost all of our fleet in the Lower 48 was working on short-term contracts. Virtually all of our fleet has already repriced or will reprice before the end of the year. Higher activity also drove revenue increases for our international segment. Revenue of $286 million improved by $17 million or 6%.
Drilling Solutions and Rig Technologies moved up sequentially as well, with the latter segment delivering 23% growth in the Q2 . Total adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $158 million compared to $131 million in the Q1 , an increase of almost $28 million or 21%. All our segments delivered strong sequential growth, which resulted in EBITDA margins of 25%. An improvement of over 200 basis points. The year's earning EBITDA of $87.4 million was up $13.1 million or 18% compared to the prior quarter. This increase primarily reflected higher margins and expanding activity in our Lower 48 drilling business. The Lower 48 drilling EBITDA rose by $12.7 million to our average rig count in the Lower 48 increased to 89.3 rigs, up approximately 6 rigs from the Q1 .
Daily margin came in at $8,706, up more than $1,000. Rig count continues to move up on the strong commodity price environment, while our day rates increase with a higher utilization for higher spec rigs now at 81%. Our most recent contracts average approximately $33,000 per day for a rig segment alone, before layering on the contribution of our Drilling Solutions offerings. For the Q3 , we project our Lower 48 margin at $10,400-$10,600 per day as we continue to roll our rigs onto contracts with higher pricing. We anticipate an increase of national drilling segment delivered EBITDA of $82.4 million, an improvement of $11.2 million or 16% over the Q1 results.
International average rig count increased by 2.3 rigs, while daily margin improved to $14,331, up $1,200 or 9.1%. This margin improvement reflected strong operational performance in Saudi Arabia and Latin America, as well as favorable currency movements in certain markets. We expect rig count in the Q3 to remain approximately in line as rig additions in Saudi Arabia and Colombia should be offset by the end of the contract for one of our Kazakhstan rigs. The first new build commenced operations in early Q2. New build to start late in the Q3 . We project daily margin for the Q3 roughly in line with the Q2 . Drilling Solutions EBITDA continued on its upward trajectory, delivering $22.8 million, up 13.8% from the Q1 .
Gross margin for NDS was nearly 52% for the quarter, up from 49%. This is an all-time high for the segment. We continue to see increased penetration, particularly in third-party rigs, with the largest contributions coming from performance software in the U.S. Overall drilling activity in the Lower 48 improved, taking our combined drilling rig and drilling solutions daily gross margin to $10,935. Segment to increase by approximately 12% over the Q2 level. Rig Technologies returned to a positive EBITDA contribution, generating $3.4 million in the Q2 . The $4.4 million sequential improvement reflected primarily increased rentals and aftermarket sales. For the Q3 , the segment should deliver additional EBITDA growth of approximately $2 million on growing capital equipment sales. Cash generation exceeded our expectations.
In the Q2 , adjusted free cash flow reached $57 million, a $96 million improvement compared to the Q1 . Our cash generation was driven by increased EBITDA from operations, lower quarterly interest payments, and a reduction in the working capital despite higher activity levels. DSO improvement drove the working capital decrease. Capital expenditures in the Q2 were $98.9 million. This amount included investments supporting the SANAD new builds of $27.4 million. For the full year, we are still targeting capital spending of $380 million, of which $150 million support the SANAD new build rigs. Backing some existing projects to meet our annual CapEx target.
We expect breakeven free cash flow for the Q3 as higher EBITDA will likely be offset by increased CapEx and interest payments, as well as by headwinds in working capital related to the expected growth in our business. For the full year, we are targeting free cash flow comfortably above the $100 million mark. We remain focused on addressing our leverage and expect to continue reducing our net debt during the second half of 2022. The strong acceleration of the global drilling market has exceeded even our most optimistic assumptions.
The 2022 and 2023 projections we provided Investors last December look significantly short of what we now expect. We are also well ahead of our projections. Before the end of 2022, once our budget process is complete, we would expect to provide updated projections for 2023 more in line with the current reality. With that, I will turn the call back to Tony for his concluding remarks.
Thank you, William. I will now conclude my remarks this afternoon with the following. The benefits of our strategic initiatives are increasingly apparent. With the growth we expect this quarter, annualized EBITDA in our Nabors Drilling Solutions should reach the $100 million mark. We see significant expansion potential from increased penetration on Nabors' rigs, growth of the third-party business, and further additions to the NDS portfolio. In our international segment, SANAD has no equal and dwarfs other capital deployment opportunities in the global land drilling business. As additional rigs are added to SANAD's fleet, the joint venture's free cash flow should improve. That will draw us closer to the expected commencement of significant regular distributions from SANAD to the partners. As for the capital structure, we have successfully navigated difficult markets and significantly improved our leverage.
Since the peak in 2014, we have reduced net debt by more than $1.6 billion. We have established a track record of progress to restore our financial flexibility. Our sights are set on more advancement. The goal is to reach leverage metrics consistent with investment grade debt ratings. With the continued dedication of the entire Nabors workforce, I am convinced the best is yet to come. I look forward to reporting that progress. That concludes my remarks today. Thank you for your time and attention. With that, we will take your questions.
We will now begin the question, and please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press S tar then 2 . At this time, we will pause for a moment to assemble our roster. Our first question today will come from Derek Podhaizer of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hey, good afternoon, guys. Was hoping you could spend some time talking about your view of the overall supply side of the market, specifically how many idle super-spec are out there and the related cost to bring those off the fence. Beyond that, how many upgradable rigs are out there that would cost that 50% of new build or less? Just trying to get a better gauge of the supply so that I know you gave us great detail and ran down your fleet, but just curious from an overall market standpoint to help us on the supply side.
Well, our guesses will vary greatly in terms of which operators they are, what the state is. I can't give you a specific number, but those numbers could range from several million dollars up to almost $15 million, depending on operator and which category of rig. There is about 150 of those. That's why we've said that I think new builds should be a very, very far distance away because the cost of a new build, we estimate $30 million with the metrics I identified, which would require day rates in the mid-$40s, and a term contract and maybe some upfront money as well. Given all that, I don't see new builds happening.
You know, the depth of the market in terms of that potential market is pretty concentrated as well in a bunch of people, and therefore I see a lot of discipline amongst everybody right now. I think our priority, as I said, is to roll out what we have today, and as I mentioned, relatively inexpensive to keep rolling out. We're at 91 rigs today. I said 3 or 4 rigs next quarter, and the second half we'll probably try the cost that is relatively minor around. As I said, the first 12 rigs is roughly around $2 million and change, so relatively inexpensive. Then for us on the back end, the last five on a march to adding 20 to our 91 rigs would be about $6 million.
Again, it does dip up, but not substantially. Then for us, we do have 40+ PACE-M rigs, and we have another, maybe another dozen on top of that. Those could be substantial CapEx, but again, less than 50% of the cost of a new build. That's why I think the market's pretty constructive right now. I think the focus on everybody is to focus on existing installed base.
Follow up the 40+ PACE-M rig that you talked about it sounds like if you exit at 100 rigs this year, you're gonna reach 111 at some point next year. Can you talk about when you expect to reach that level and then line of sight to when rig 112, that 112 one being one of those 40 PACE-M rigs come out, when we can see that? Is the supply chain in place where you can get that rig out if it's gonna be a second half next year event? Just thinking about the timing and cadence of when we move from exhausting your super-spec into reaching into one of those PACE-M rigs.
Right. Okay, we exhaust our super-spec at 111. I'm hoping that we're expecting maybe toward the first half of 2023, end of the first half, end of the Q2 of 2023, we should hit that. That's the goal. We'll be monitoring that and depending on what happens and where we are on pricing, etc., where the market is, then we'll judge whether it makes any sense to even think about the M rigs or upgrading additional rigs. Right now our focus is on maximizing the existing capital and the existing investment capital and get the returns up as much as we can right now. That's where the focus is.
We have, because of our integration, we can quickly pull the lever on adding, upgrading rigs. That's one of the benefits of Nabors, given the fact that all the long lead items, which is smart components of the rig, the top drive, the VFD, the drawworks, the wrench, all those things that Nabors builds itself, and therefore we have a lot of control over the supply chain. We do have a bunch of inventory and spare parts that we have in the normal course of things just to support our existing customer base. As you know, in top drive market, for example, Nabors today is 40% of all the top drives in the world, okay. We have a pretty robust supply chain and ability to lever our things up.
That would be a high-class problem is the way that I would say. Right now, our focus is on maximizing the cash flow from the existing assets.
Great. Appreciate the thoughts. I'll turn it back.
Our next question today will come from Karl Blunden of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for the time. I noticed that you're guiding to a pretty sizable increase in Lower 48 margin for Q3. Could you discuss a little bit more. You gave some drivers in the prepared remarks. Is there a large proportion of contracts resetting, or is there something else underlying this big step change you're seeing there? Well, as you know from our prior conference calls, we made a tactical decision last year to go very short on our contract lengths. That put us in a position now that we have price reopeners, and so that's. We're gonna take advantage of that given the fact that the market has moved quite a bit. That and that's the goal, and that's the strategy to do that.
That, that's exactly where it comes from. You're absolutely right. Today, as I said in the prepared remarks, that number is about $8,000 above our Q2 average, so it's very substantial. It, you know, in the Q3 , we'll be focusing on trying to get as many of those as we can. As I said, 70% of the fleet by the Q1 next year can reprice, and that's the strategy to take advantage of that window.
That's incredibly helpful. With regard to capital allocation, it sounds like we should continue to see debt reduction as a primary focus. I was wondering if you're open also to accelerating that debt reduction with equity link transactions?
I think at this point, there are more maturity profile, but you know, nothing is off the table.
Thank you.
Our next question today will come from John Daniel.
Hey, good morning, guys, or afternoon. I just have 2 quick questions. On the 70% of the rigs that will have the ability to reprice, is there any pricing closer to leading edge, but is there any reason that you wouldn't expect those 70% to be comfortably in the low 30s when they reprice?
No. That's exactly what the goal would be to do that. I mean, as I said, at $8,000 above $25,000, we're already at the mid-low $30s already. If the market keeps accelerating as those openers come up, we'll try to take advantage of that as well. Yes, you hit the nail on the head, in the mid-low $30s already.
Yeah. I mean, it just seems to me, I know you don't wanna give forward guidance too far out, but it seems very.
There's no question.
My second half you said.
In the second half. Yeah.
For the second half. Yes, sir.
Second half. I mean, at 8,000 top of 25, you're approaching 50% on just the base rig. Just remember for Nabors numbers, please bear in mind, we have additional margin from NDS on top of that, okay?
Right.
All those numbers go up an additional tranche on top of that as well. That, that's where the extra juice is.
I think one of the things that Tony pointed out, John, is that, you know, we have a lot of potential for repricing, and we would even like to see prices above where they are right now, leading edge pricing. The $8,000 is if we reprice everything at today's leading edge. But I
Right.
We think there's some potential for further increases in pricing during the remainder of the year.
Make sure I'm not smoking anything funny.
Thanks, John.
All right, guys. Take care.
Our next question today will come from David Smith of Pickering Energy Partners. Please go ahead.
Hey, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question.
Sure.
I just wanted to follow up to the first question on the call today. You mentioned 150 super-spec upgrade candidates across the industry. If I understand correctly, that would probably include, you know, about 40 from you. Wanted to try to reframe that question to ask your view of, you know, how many super-spec upgrade candidates you see out there that aren't owned by the big three U.S. contractors.
I don't know, maybe.
Well, I think the one upgrade to super-spec, to be clear.
Okay. I appreciate that. You know, on the theoretical upgrade to super-spec question, you know, I understand your focus is put in all, you know, 111 of your high-spec rigs to work, but maybe, you know, what is a pace of upgrades that could be, you know, realistically achievable if, you know, operator demand was there?
Well, I mean, for us to go from the 91 to 111, that's just day-to-day stuff for us. I mean, as I mentioned, the cost of that is relatively inexpensive for us to do that. As I said, we're thinking of targeting exiting the year around 100, so that's nine more from where we are today. By the second half of 2023, that would be another roughly 10 or so. All that, we don't see any herculean efforts, we don't see any supply chain issues, nor do we see a big CapEx for us to do that. That's one of the advantages we have. I don't really see that being a big deal.
As your prior question, guys, referenced, then during that process of the second half, we will monitor to see whether the market has a need and appetite for, and whether we're interested in supplying that additional layer, which then does move us to a higher cost number and also a higher lead time, but we'll know. We'll have visibility on that several months in advance to try to mitigate the lead issues with that.
Okay, I appreciate it.
Our next question today is gonna come from Dan Kutz of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Just wanted to ask, and sorry if I missed it, but just wondering if you guys could comment or expand on any comments you made in terms of pricing trends that you're seeing across international markets. Thanks.
Pricing trends.
Yeah. We're seeing. I mean, the prices have steadied up and continue to steady. I mean, in certain markets, like in Latin American markets, we've seen increases in pricing versus prior and better conditions on the contracts with respect to exchange rates and such. You know, we're hoping to see some increases in prices in the Middle East as well in our biggest market. In general, you know, the market is a little bit more dynamic, more tenders coming up. You know, the market is tight internationally as well. We are seeing some increase, but obviously not to the level of what we've seen in the U.S. The international markets, we're seeing more like 5%-10% as compared to the U.S., where we're seeing basically over almost 80% increases in pricing.
Got it. That's really helpful. Tony, I think you kind of alluded to recession risk in the prepared remarks. That's definitely a big debate is the extent to which a recession may be called a mild recession would actually impact you know, oil and gas development activity. Just wondering what you guys' thoughts are. You know, say we do go into a recession, what would be maybe in the U.S. and international markets? At least your thoughts?
Well, I mean, given volatility in general that we've lived with for so long, we're constantly aware of that. We do everything to prepare for the downside. We're not getting over our skis on any commitments. We're trying to maintain our cost structure, even though there's a lot of pressure on it right now. As activity goes up, we're trying to be vigilant about adding to our body count, et cetera, all because I'm, you know, I'm keenly aware of the macro there, and I wanna make sure I'm not locked into something, and I'll respond to it with the same speed and swiftness I did in the last downturn that you saw. Nabors, that Q1 , we did dramatic cuts compared to most of our competitors as well, where we took, you know, 20% out of the SG&A, et cetera.
We responded really quickly. We're doing everything to keep the culture of maintaining our whole infrastructure in a way that maintains our flexibility, given the fact that other things are going on in the world that we can't control.
Got it. Thanks very much, guys. I'll turn it back.
Our next question today will come from Keith Mackey of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi, there. Thanks for taking my questions. I think we have a much better understanding of where you expect the top line on the U.S. daily rig revenue per day to trend through the end of this year and into next year. I did wanna get a little bit more color on how we should be thinking about OpEx per day. We've seen that sorta come up a little bit as well. Just what is the base level of OpEx we should be thinking about with the existing rigs running and then any OpEx startup costs on these next rigs as you get up to the 111 would be helpful.
Well, on the startup cost, the numbers I gave you include CapEx and startup costs in that $2 million. I mean, I want to be real clear about that. That's what I'm saying, our rollout of those rigs, the next 12, is relatively painless. That's the point I'm making. On the operating expense itself, there's a few categories. There's obviously labor friction. We do have cost pass-throughs with the contracts, but there is labor friction given the fact that competitive adjustments are having to be made the past six months, given the market and labor shortages and tightness on everything. We do have some R&M, you know, cost increases as well.
Obviously, in the industry in general, given things like, in the material side, things with high metal content, steel and copper, et cetera, all that stuff is subject to cost escalation, probably the R&M component, probably about 8% thereof just that one component. Of course, in our cost numbers, there is a bit of churn because as you push rates and, you know, you're not doing a good job unless you lose stuff as well. We have those three things. On top of that, I'll let William address the operating expense, SG&A again.
About Tony highlighted the biggest one, which is compensation and the one that's gone up the most over the last six months or so. That has some components that are permanent, like the salary increases. Those that cost us about $600 per day this particular quarter. Others are more transitory, that are more related to churn. You know, when you push a client to increase prices, as Tony mentioned, most of the time we're gonna get it, we're gonna be successful, but there's still a significant amount of churn where you have to move to another client. Of course, you keep the people, the crew stays on, and you may be a month down. You have more people really than probably you need for a time.
We're going through that right now. We're just south of $17,000 per day right now, including reimbursables. We think that number has some transitory elements that will take us to below $1,700 next quarter. We're gonna be working on bringing back those costs to a more traditional level, which we hope is in the $17K or slightly below range.
Got it. Thanks for the color. Just to follow up, the survey that you did with some of the customers and their expected rig additions through the end of the year certainly does point to some incremental rigs going to work by the end of the year. Just curious what you're thinking as far as contract lengths and durations on rigs that'll go, you know, go to work in 2023. Do you think it'll still be shorter term, or will we start to see some longer term contracts get signed?
I think as priced in my prepared remarks, I may reference that fact, and we will be looking at that as well. Target number of term contracts, but we are looking at it and depending on the customer and, you know, the term contract makes sense for us, particularly if a customer is focused on technology and is committed to that, because then it's a win-win for both of us because technology we added to a rig requires a long-term commitment. If we can find rigs, place rigs with those kind of customers, that'll be a win-win for us. That, that's kind of the priority for us. Term customer, that's more equally important to us.
Perfect. Thank you very much for the color. That's it for me.
Again, if you have a question, please press Star then 1 . Our next question will come from Arun Jayaram of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning.
Good-
Good afternoon. Pardon me. Tony, I wanted to get your thoughts if the you know Nabors' share of the U.S. land rig count you know based using a Baker Hughes as the denominator around 13%, 14%. If the U.S. land demand increases by 100 incremental rigs over the next you know few months, what's your expectation around you know Nabors' market share? Would you expect to grow your market share just based on your you know your super-spec and ability to upgrade super-spec rigs? Get your thoughts on that.
Well, I'm not really a market share guy. I mean, I'm really a guy that looks at returns, so I'm more interested in getting proper returns and growing that. Now, if you look at the numbers I gave you, I said 10% for the market as a whole. I point to the fact that Nabors has 91 rigs. I said, we're gonna be at 100, hopefully at 100 targeting for this year. That's kind of in line. Second half of next year will be another 10%. That could yield a incremental market share improvement. Again, my priority is more make sure these rigs get placed with the right customers, where I maximize my technology, and I maximize my return on investment. That's more my priority as opposed to market share.
On NDS, I think the growth is not just on Nabors rigs, it's on third-party rigs. We're still in the first or second inning of that ball game. I think that's one of the attractions of NDS because it does have the potential to grow beyond Nabors' rig market share and the economics of that are such so the returns on capital are even more attractive. That's an equal priority for us. Right now, our main priority on NDS is to grow penetration as opposed to pricing. Pricing actually stood up pretty well during the past COVID downturn. Right now our goal is to grow penetration both on Nabors rigs and third-party rigs. The goal specifically is to grow market share because we think we have some really unique things to add value to.
Great. I know it's early, but I just wanted to get your preliminary thoughts as we sharpen our pencil around 2023 CapEx. Just trying to think if there's any things that you could maybe give us some color on maintenance CapEx per rig, SANAD new build CapEx, etc., just thinking about the market next year.
You highlighted the two important pieces. One is SANAD, and that's gonna be somewhere in the $150 million or so per day. One, you know, depending on the deployment-
Per day, not per day.
I'm sorry for the year.
For the year, yeah.
$150 million. That is, you know, sort of baked in, and it all depends on the pace that the local manufacturer can maintain. That is a little bit of a very difficult number. It could go up by 30 or 40. CapEx for rig per year has gone up a little bit. We do expect some increase in that piece of the business. Our maintenance CapEx should go up, maybe towards closer to the $1 million mark versus the 800 that we've traditionally seen in the past. It's a combination of both. To give you a number, well, how much I'm not sure yet. That does include SANAD.
Great. Thanks a lot.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will conclude our question- and- answer session. Thank you. The conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.