Conference

Sep 9, 2021

Slides

Hi, my name is Dave Anderson. I cover U. S. Oilfield Services Research at Barclays. Thank you for joining us today. Our next speaker is Mr. Robert Eichler. He's President and CEO of Noble Corporation, was recently named CEO. Of course, Noble just recently came out of Chapter 11. So we're looking forward to seeing Noble back into our coverage universe in short order and looking forward to hear from Robert in terms of the outlook on Noble. So, do you have a presentation here to give us and I have a few questions there at the end there once you're done. Very good. Dave, thank you very much. Thank you for the introduction and thanks to everyone online for joining us here this morning and hearing our story. I'm assuming my screen is sharing now. So, I will move forward here. This is just a side note, Barclays, this is the first conference I ever attended in my career or early in my career, so it has a soft spot in my heart and I'm glad to present here today. We'll start with forward looking statements. Just a reminder, among other things I may make reference to market outlook, financial performance, fleet, commercial, financial strategy and actual results may vary materially from those presented here. I would urge you to review our forward looking statement in detail. So, if you haven't been following our story, let me just give a quick overview of Noble today. As David mentioned, starting out here, we've been through a lot here over the past year, including an emergence from Chapter 11. We are celebrating our one hundredth year of service this year. We enjoy a rich and storied history. And with that comes a strong culture and a strong corporate identity. We're very proud at Noble and I'm very proud to be leading this organization today. Much like our history, our current chapter has been eventful as we alluded to. And so, let me just look forward to giving you a few highlights of where we sit today. Our current fleet is 20 units, 12 floaters and eight jackups, average fleet age of eight years. We are highly committed at Noble to customer satisfaction. This is a service business and that has to be your approach to be successful in this business and we're very proud of the many customer relationships that we hold and are very appreciative of the business that we've been entrusted with. Financially, just after our recent announcement of asset sale, We are in a net cash position. We have total liquidity of over $900,000,000 in a backlog of around $1,300,000,000 I will speak in just a moment to the transaction that got us to that net cash position as well as another, but suffice to say that I'm very pleased with where we sit today financially and I'll spend a lot of time today laying out an argument about why Noble going forward. So, our value proposition today. As we emerge from Chapter 11, we have been laser focused on resetting our cost structure and obviously fixing our balance sheet. Some of the early presentations we made coming out of of Chapter 11, we spent a lot of time focusing on our breakeven day rates and making the argument to the market that we have an industry leading cost structure and that even in a lower day rate environment, we can breakeven, we can preserve liquidity and we can preserve cash. Well, in the meantime, the UDW market in particular has moved meaningfully. I'll speak a little bit more to that later and I'm sure that some of my colleagues have spoken to that or will speak to that as well in the conference. But it's really set up what we think is the key value proposition for Neville today, which is a yield plus growth story. We can free cash flow in the current market environment. We have said that in 2022, we will be free cash flow positive. And when you combine that with our liquidity, we position the Company to establish a yield story now. Growth wise, we see and I'll speak later to it, but we see a further improving market, and particularly in the UDW segment. And later I'll put some data behind that and also speak illustratively to some of the operational leverage in the business. So, as a takeaway, we like to say that you can get paid in current market environment and still have significant exposure to upside with the Noble story today. So, let me just spend a minute, going through our two announced strategic transactions. I'll go in reverse chronological order, starting with the divestment of our jackups in Saudi Arabia announced in just in August. We have a price of $292,000,000 for that transaction where we will sell all four rigs contracted in Saudi. We anticipate cash proceeds of around $285,000,000 net of fees expenses in the settlement of working capital there. So, what does that transaction do? It has put us in a position to be net cash positive in 2022. Obviously, it significantly enhanced our liquidity position. But most importantly, it's put us in a position to prioritize debt repayments and returning cash to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. One thing it was not, it was not a strategic move away from jackups. That is a transaction where the counterparty came to us. It was opportunistic. We feel that it was a win win for both sides and we're pleased to have to be planning to close that transaction out in October. So, I spoke to Yolanda in the last slide, but this transaction really is a critical step in establishing that priority for us. So, now back to what's kind of old news now, but let me just make a couple of points around the Pacific Drilling acquisition. First of all, obviously, it grew our high specification UDW fleet. I'm a big believer in the UDW market. Noble had been largely sold out in drill ships for some time when we went into that transaction. And so, it allowed us to expand that fleet and we're very pleased to already have one contract and added backlog to the newly acquired Pacific fleet. I've got three contracts listed on the right hand side of that page, all of which we're very pleased to have earned. And we've also extended our customer base through that transaction. We realized $30,000,000 of synergies, we strengthened our balance sheet, they came with a net cash position, and we've exercised capital discipline by strapping both the Mistral and the Bora. For those rigs, those are two of the older rigs that came with that fleet and quite simply we looked at the forward model, marketability of those rigs, likelihood of going back to work and made the decision to go ahead and scrap the rigs and announce that along with the transaction. Just really quickly, I'd like to speak to the rig renaming, which we have just announced, where we've renamed three of the Pacific rigs as listed there. That is a very neat tradition at Noble and I'm proud to be carrying it on with these deserving individuals. I've worked actually worked for one of them offshore and they're all wonderful people with many decades of experience at Noble and as I mentioned well deserving of this honor and very glad to continue this tradition. So, for the rest of the presentation, let me take you through some of our key value drivers. We've been consistent about what we think is needed to be a successful offshore driller. And I'll just run through a few of these now. I've spoken already about our culture earlier. So, let me start with a little bit about our fleet, which I think is positioned for continued high utilization and utilization is really a key differentiator in generating cash flow in our business always, but also today. So, starting with the floaters, which now after the Jackup transaction comprised 60% of our fleet. We have 12 floaters in total, seven of those are seventh generation drill ships, four are sixth generation drill ships and we have one more semi submersible, which is currently operating in Indonesia. Average age of around eight years and 83% contracted. So, that number is simple math, 10 divided by 12. The two rigs that are not contracted today are the cold stacked rigs, the Meltem and the Sirocco that are cold stacked together and came with the Pacific transaction. We have said in the past and already in this presentation that we'll be exercise capital discipline and that's a priority in how we think about those rigs as well. On the jacked up side, now 40% of our fleet, we have eight total, one listed as Ultra High Spec, which really means Norway class and then seven High Spec. Bear with me for a moment while I use a little bit of industry jargon in describing the design of these rigs because in the world of jackups that does matter. Our ultra high spec rig, the Noble Lloyd Noble is a CJ70 design that's essentially the largest jackup design that exists out in the world. It is currently preparing for a contract in Norway, it will be Norway capable and we think that rig probably stays in Norway for a very long time. For most of you probably know this, but having a Norway capable designation is an important step for any rig floater or jackup. We have one remaining JU2000 design rig, which is the JU2000 is a common type of unit, it's a North Sea capable unit, it's time tested, it's efficient. There are a number of those out there in the marketplace, some in the North Sea, many not in the North Sea that would require some level of upgrade to take to the North Sea, but really a high spec workforce jackup, a great unit. The remaining six units are JU3000N class rigs. The N is intended to signify Noble and it really is an upgrade version of the JU2000 that I just described earlier. I'm going through all of this detail with you because it's important to understand that this class of six rigs is capable of getting into deeper water depths and over a number of important platforms in the North Sea that other re classes, including JU2000, would struggle to achieve. It's a very modern and efficient drilling package on these, and so they performed quite well. We're the only company that owns this class of rig, and we're very proud of them and we think they performed quite well and will continue to perform well for some of the most difficult drilling programs in the North Sea and elsewhere. Let me speak briefly to utilization. I mentioned earlier that utilization is key to cash flow and cash flow is key to our story. Ramping up and ramping down rigs is an inefficient operation, whether it's floaters or jackups, keeping rigs utilized is really critical to a cash flow story and we think that it's one of the things that is very much in a contractor's control through a contractor's brand and customer satisfaction. We think that that plays out through utilization as much as anything else. So, we've got 4% of the global fleet, but we've won an average of almost double that at 7%, including at a couple of times, so multiple times our market share in certain years. Let me speak now just to more specifically to our contract backlog, starting with our floater fleet status, and starting with the two Globetrotter rigs that are currently with Shell. Those rigs are working off ten year contracts with Shell. Recently, anyone who's followed Noble has seen our announcements around the Globetrotter two. We are glad to report that everyone is safe with those rigs. The rig is now in port undergoing repairs and further inspection. We have guidance later in this slide, which is our latest estimate on financial impact there. We have four rigs currently operating for ExxonMobil. Those were all new build drill ships built out of the Hyundai Shipyard, sometimes I refer to them as the HHI vessels, more jargon. They operate under a broad and flexible agreement that we negotiated with Exxon that we call the Commercial Enabling Agreement, the CEA in short. That agreement allows both Exxon and Noble a number of benefits. We're very proud of the agreement and very appreciative of Exxon trusting us down in Guyana. So, you see the backlog there. The CEA agreement is an agreement that resets to a market price twice a year on March 1 and September 1. That market rate governs all four of those rates, so it resets on each of those dates to a new rate. The next reset will occur on March 1. And that rate is intended to be a rate that a prudent drilling contractor would contract to given the job in Guyana with seventh generation rig. So, that's kind of a broad outline. Exxon has given a lot of flexibility. We offer a discount off of that market rate that varies depending on the number of rigs in operation and the total backlog at the time the rate is in effect. And Exxon is also able to move turnaround among the different of the four rigs. And so, that gives them the flexibility they need to adapt to changes in their drilling schedule, including moving rigs between exploration drilling and production drilling, development drilling. And we're very pleased with the outcome there. Outcome there. We do think that the four rigs are well positioned to continue working in Guyana. I don't have any updates beyond what's shown on the screen here today. I talked about a few of the contracts earlier that are listed down below on the screen, some of which we've contracted through the Pacific rigs, I won't go into more detail there. And I mentioned earlier the MELCOM and the Sirocco, which are currently full stack, made the promise that we'll be disciplined in how we think about contracting those rigs. Generally speaking, we think about needing a full return on our investment if we're going to bring those back into the market. I have also said that for certain customers, we may be willing to come off of that, because we think that in certain situations, the likelihood of follow on work or continued work program would justify getting a rig back in the market. At present, we don't have any programs that we see for the Melsim in the near term. We have one bid out that's public that would be a barefoot charter for the Sirocco. But generally, think about those rigs as being more likely candidates for a slightly improved market. Moving to jackups here, I think the fleet status essentially speaks for itself. One thing I'll say around our fleet in the North Sea, normally when you're contracting, you try not to have your rigs roll at the same time. Unfortunately, in 2020, we had a little bit of a perfect storm if you try to avoid that was unavoidable. The way that options ended up being exercised, the contracts ended up rolling, we had centrally all of our rigs in the North Sea rolled almost at the same time in early twenty twenty and of course COVID hit right about that time. So, I spoke earlier about our utilization. It is something we're proud of. I think right now is in the North Sea is a slight counterexample to that. I would argue it's driven mainly by the timing of those contract roles in relation to COVID. We see the jacked up market as largely flattish going forward, including in the North Sea. We do have conversations behind every one of these rigs right now and we'll get them back to work. We're working on it. We don't have any news for you today. Lloyd Novo mentioned earlier is preparing for work in Norway with Equinor. The last update we had had that rig going back September 15. We're updating guidance today that will include a slight delay to getting that rig under contract, probably something closer to a late September event today. Again, that's in our guidance we'll get to later. I mentioned earlier, we're very pleased with the Lloyd Nobles position in Norway and very hopeful that that rig continues to work in that country where we see strong demand for quite some time to come. Let me speak to the UDW market supply and demand for just a minute and make a couple of points. I mentioned at the very beginning, this is a market that we like And I think this slide produced by Rystad is probably a pretty good demonstration of why. We think UDW is one of the most probably is the most important driver of growth in offshore. 2021 was better than expected and I would say this has been certainly rate wise an excellent year for drilling contractors and that's largely driven by better than anticipated demand as shown at the 65 rigs there as well as contracting looking forward to 2022 where we see a sizable uptick in new EDW demand for next year. I'll note the numbers in green at the bottom, which is an improvement, an increase from the demand forecast in June of this year. And if you were to look back previous to that, you'd see kind of a series of continued improving forecasts. At one point, we thought 2021 was going to be a trough year and then as we moved out of COVID relatively quickly offshore, it turns out 2020 will have been the trough year and we're hopeful that we see improvement going forward as shown here. One note, this is displayed in rig years, not rigs working. And so, it takes more rigs to fulfill this number of rig years than just the number shown in the blue bar. So, as an example, simple math 81 divided by 96 shows kind of 85 ish percent total utilization. And so, out of that 20 or so rigs, we'll have 100% utilization and then the rest, there are probably a few that have lower than normal utilization. But as that, on average, you can anticipate kind of 85% utilization there, which is important, because over marketed supply, you know, that's we've already seen day rate improvement and I think, typically you see that when you hit that 80%, eighty five % range, and the last few months have been no exception to what we've seen play out in previous cycles. The difference between the yellow and the gray lines there, that's marketed utilization versus total supply. And I think it's important here because the investment requirements to move from the gray line into the yellow line are meaningful. And in the UDW world, the range is extremely wide about invested capital that it would require to take a cold stack rig or a rig stranded in a yard and bring it into the market as supply. But suffice to say, we think industry dynamics today are set up such that rigs coming out of coal stack and shipyards face a relatively high hurdle, capital hurdle. And importantly, we think that rates can continue to move and that those rigs will come not all of them, but some of them will come into the market. We've seen some of that play out here in 2021. But we think they'll sprinkle into the market where they will bid depending on individual companies' objectives and strategy. They'll be bid into the more longer term contracts and that short term contracting will actually drive some of the rate growth. You've seen in The U. S. Gulf Of Mexico, so far this year, kind of a little bit higher growth than elsewhere in the world. And I think short term contracting is part of that. Recognize here that I'm running a little bit low on time. So, I won't spend any time on this slide. I'll just say that I think I've hit capital discipline, a cost structure and cash flow generation head on already. But we're very well positioned today with a strong financial foundation and we're very much looking forward to the next phase in the cycle, which we anticipate to be free cash flow generation and very importantly, returning capital to investors. A quick word on financial guidance, twenty twenty two remains unchanged. We've updated 2021 today based off of some upward and downward revisions outside of our fleet, but what's really driving the change here is updated guidance is updated based off the Globetrotter two situation I described earlier. The low end of that range is essentially assuming that that rig comes gets back to work towards the end of this year and then the high end of those ranges assumes that it comes back to work towards late October. So, don't read too much into this slide. This is a highly illustrative attempt to show some of the operational leverage in our business. It's not tied to our guidance or outlook or anything like that. Just in case anyone is new to the story, it doesn't have a current model on anything in offshore. I think it's worthy of noting, just how sensitive the business can be to improving day rates and utilization. So, it's, there's a we think there's a lot of upside in the industry and particularly in Noble. So, in closing, why Noble? We think the outlook for offshore is strong, particularly in the UDW. We think offshore exploration and production will remain a critical component of the global oil supply going forward. And as the market evolves, Noble is very well set up not just to survive but to thrive as well. Our platform is focused on and positioned to maximize free cash flow generation through our industry leading cost structure and capital structure, our commitment to capital discipline, our operational excellence in long term and trusted customer relationships. Making the right economic decisions and returning cash flow to investors is the right model for offshore drillers today and we intend to be leaders in that regard. Dave, thank you very much. And I think my clock's right, I think I've eaten up a lot of the time. Unfortunately, Robert, unfortunately, we're not going to have any time for any questions. But great to see those projections in terms of the EBITDA doubling next year. You obviously have that great contract with Exxon and Guyana, then there's a worse thing you need to pay attention to that. But unfortunately, we don't have any time for questions, but very nice to see you, Robert, and thank you for joining us today. Yes. Thank you, everyone. Thank you, Dave, and we look forward to catching up with everyone. All right. Bye bye.