Hello everyone, and welcome to the Noble Corporation and Maersk Drilling Announced Agreement to Combine Conference. My name is Sam, and I'll be coordinating your call today. If you'd like to ask a question during the presentation, you may do so by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I'll now hand you over to your host, Craig Muirhead, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer for Noble Corporation. To begin, Craig, please go ahead.
Hello and welcome to the Noble Corporation and Maersk Drilling Merger Conference Call. Before we begin this call, there are some disclaimers we would like to cover on slides two and three of the presentation materials, which can be found on the Investor Relations page of the websites for the respective companies. During this call, remarks by both companies' representatives may refer to or contain certain forward-looking statements. Such remarks are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Such statements speak only as of today's date, and the companies assume no responsibility to update any forward-looking statements as of any future date.
Please note that any non-GAAP financial measures discussed during this call are defined and reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in the merger presentation posted on both Noble Corporation and Maersk Drilling's corporate websites. The presenters for today's call are Chuck Sledge, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Noble Corporation, Claus Hemmingsen, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Maersk Drilling, and Robert Eifler, President and Chief Executive Officer of Noble Corporation. I will now turn the call over to Chuck Sledge, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Noble Corporation.
Thank you, Craig, and welcome everyone to the call. Today, Claus and I are excited to jointly announce the merger agreement between Noble Corporation and Maersk Drilling. This agreement brings together two premier offshore drilling contractors, each with decades of experience, technically advanced fleets, and strong safety and operational performance. First, and this is a very important point for me to make today, the Noble Board and the management team have the utmost respect for the whole Maersk Drilling organization. Their strong reputation among peers and customers is a testament to Maersk Drilling's talented employees, innovative culture, and focus on service quality. As Robert will detail later in the call, by joining the strengths of Noble and Maersk Drilling, we are creating a leading offshore driller with the youngest and highest-spec fleet and the highest utilization in the industry.
I am convinced this transaction will yield significant strategic and financial benefits for both companies' shareholders, and I'm excited to be a part of this transformative agreement. I will now turn the call over to Claus, Chairman of the Board of Directors for Maersk Drilling.
Thank you, Chuck, and transformative it is indeed. As my shareholders already know, Maersk Drilling is a strong proponent of transformative M&A in the offshore drilling industry. As we explored strategic opportunities, the Maersk Drilling team identified Noble as a great potential partner. We believe a combination of our companies carries a strong industrial logic. Together, Noble and Maersk Drilling possess an unmatched expertise within deep water and harsh environment drilling, and the combination creates a long-term winner in the market. By uniting the capabilities of our two companies, we will be able to enhance the customer experience through broadened capabilities and an increased ability to scale investments in sustainability and in technology. As Robert will walk through next, creating deeper value for our shareholders is the cornerstone of our strategic rationale.
This value creation will be realized through, among other initiatives, considerable synergy opportunities, which will result in an industry-leading cost structure. It will contribute to the company, and it will improve our ability to return capital to shareholders. Now, it's my pleasure to hand over the call to Robert Eifler, President and CEO of Noble Corporation. Robert has over 15 years of leadership experience in offshore drilling across various operational, commercial, and executive management roles. Upon transaction closing, Robert will, with shared support from members, assume the role of Chief Executive Officer of the Combined Company. Robert, I hand it over to you.
Thank you for your comments, gentlemen, and Claus for the introduction. I'm thrilled to join Chuck and Claus today to walk through some of the details of the agreement to merge our two great companies. Each company has a long history of accomplishment in the offshore drilling industry, and we look forward to making exciting progress together. For those of you following the slide presentation, I will begin my comments on slide five with some of the key terms of the agreement. The transaction will be an all-stock deal structured under a new UK TopCo. Noble and Maersk Drilling shareholders will hold 50/50 pro forma ownership of the Combined Company. Shares of the new parent company will be listed on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Copenhagen. The headquarters of the company will be in Houston, Texas, and I'm excited to continue as the CEO.
The Board of Directors of the Combined Company will have a balanced representation from Noble and Maersk Drilling. The Combined Company will be governed by a seven-member board comprised of three members appointed by Noble, three members appointed by Maersk Drilling, and myself. Chuck Sledge will become the jointly appointed Chairman of the Board of Directors, and Claus Hemmingsen will become one of the three directors designated by Maersk Drilling. The deal already has support of the main shareholders from both Noble and Maersk Drilling, and we anticipate being able to finalize the merger in mid-2022. I would like to express my gratitude to those shareholders on both sides who have already agreed to support this transaction. Moving now to slide six, I want to highlight the strategic rationale behind the transaction. First, bringing Maersk Drilling and Noble together will create a world-class offshore driller.
The Combined Fleet will represent the youngest, highest-spec, and highest-utilized in the industry. We will have strong positions in both ultra-deep water and harsh environment, with diversified revenue across customers, asset classes, and geographic regions. Speaking to the customer benefits of the merger, both Maersk Drilling and Noble maintain a strong and diverse customer base and share a core focus on safe operations and customer satisfaction. This is a great place for me to recognize Maersk Drilling's operating capabilities and leading industry position in sustainability and innovation. They've been fortunate to secure support from their customers for a number of initiatives, and we look forward to leveraging that momentum across Noble's existing fleet. With our combined scale, we anticipate the ability to extend investments in technology and sustainability, which will help our customers to develop oil and gas resources responsibly and efficiently.
Together, we can make a bigger impact for our customers, investors, and the communities we affect around the globe. Thirdly, we expect this transaction to be highly accretive to all shareholders. The targeted annual cost synergies are $125 million. We expect the realization of the vast majority of those to be front-loaded, with all synergies achieved within two years. This will help create an industry-leading cost structure, which, when combined with the pro forma fleet and utilization, creates a platform for free cash flow generation. Lastly, let me address that platform. Maersk Drilling and Noble are both standalone free cash flow positive in 2022, with a combined potential of $375 million of cash flow in 2023. Along with a robust balance sheet, the cash flow potential will support our commitment to implementing a sustainable policy of returning cash to shareholders while retaining a strong balance sheet.
We believe this fundamental shift in capital allocation is the right model for an offshore drilling company and is critical to shareholders today. Turning to slide seven, our Combined Company will provide a truly differentiated opportunity for investors. It offers a very attractive combination of scale, a robust balance sheet, attractive free cash flow yield, downside resiliency, and exposure to the continuing market recovery. The combined market cap of Noble and Maersk Drilling would be well over $3.5 billion using current share prices. The chart on the right compares the Combined Company to some major U.S. indices and the largest energy service companies with meaningful offshore exposure. The numbers represented here are based on our 2020 estimated free cash flow of $375 million and compared to consensus 2023 numbers for the other benchmarks shown. As you can see, our Combined Company leads the pack for free cash flow yield.
We expect our Combined Company to be a best-in-class investment opportunity, offering a differentiated proposition in offshore drilling today. Now, moving over to slide eight, I want to highlight some of the strengths of the Combined Fleet. As you see in the upper section of the chart, the pro forma fleet has 33 out of 39 rigs contracted. Even more telling, in the table below, we show the average fleet utilization for the past five years, with the Combined Company demonstrating a clear advantage. This high level of utilization is extremely important when it comes to generating free cash flow, and both Maersk Drilling and Noble have a commendable history of keeping rigs contracted. Looking at the gray bars on the chart, which indicate stacked rigs, you see our pro forma company has limited exposure to reactivation CapEx and no new build capital commitments.
In addition to the great teams that run, maintain, and market our rigs, the assets themselves do a great job of attracting customers. The Combined Fleet will have the youngest and highest specification mixed asset fleet in the world. On slide nine, you can see our global footprint and where our fleet is currently deployed. The takeaways we want to emphasize here are customers, asset mix, and scale. The combination of Maersk Drilling and Noble diversifies our revenue mix through a broader basket of customers. The asset mix across harsh jackup and deep water markets adds to our revenue diversity, increasing our resilience through cycle. This slide also features the three operating regions planned for the Combined Company: Western Benign, Eastern Benign, and Harsh Environment. On the next two slides, we'll spend some time talking about two strategic markets which are key to this transaction: Norway and Guyana.
With that, I'll flip to slide ten. One of Maersk Drilling's key regions of operation is the North Sea, where they currently have five CJ70 ultra-harsh jackups. This portion of the Maersk Drilling fleet is an important value driver for Noble shareholders. Along with the increased complexity and higher construction costs of these rigs comes more attractive operational economics that are on par with ultra-deepwater drillship returns. We believe that the Norway market has a particularly exciting future. While 2022 is anticipated to be relatively soft, an increase in project approvals is forecasted for 2023. These oil and gas field project approvals are driven by the unwinding of COVID delays and implementation of various Norwegian incentive packages, which aim to increase the country's production. Now, let's turn to slide 11 and talk through another key market for the Combined Company: ultra-deepwater in Guyana.
As many of you know, Guyana-Suriname is currently the most promising offshore basin in the world. Our customers continually increase their reserve estimates as their ongoing exploration programs confirm the vast potential of that region. We are excited to serve ExxonMobil's needs with the four Noble drill ships currently working in the region under a unique commercial enabling agreement, or CEA. ExxonMobil is the largest operator in the region, and the CEA provides Noble with attractive contract visibility. We believe that Maersk Drilling shareholders will benefit from exposure to this developing basin under the Combined Company. So up to now, we've walked through the transaction rationale, the fleet, and some key strategic regions for the Combined Company. But we all know that rigs don't drill well themselves. It takes people.
On slide 12, I'd like to spend some time explaining what we see as the complementary cultures of Maersk Drilling and Noble. First, if you distill down each company's core values, you'll find a lot of common ground. We share the principles of respect, honesty, responsibility, and hard work, among others, and you can see a few of the results of these principles in action on the right of the slide. Results by getting our people home safely, consistently over-delivering for customers, and leaning into the most difficult challenges. Stepping back, we also see each company's storied history brings them to this common ground from a different perspective. Those different perspectives are what gets me excited to lead these two companies as one unified team.
We truly believe that as we combine the strengths of Maersk Drilling and Noble, we'll find that one plus one can equal much more than just two. Turning to slide 13, both of our companies have several sustainability initiatives and are committed to finding efficient solutions to help reduce emissions from offshore drilling. Both Noble and Maersk Drilling have leveraged some incentives in Norway to upgrade jackups to hybrid power. Additionally, Maersk Drilling is involved in some interesting and unique ESG projects. Two of the most groundbreaking are the Project Greensand Consortium for Carbon Capture and Storage and the Maersk Invincible's successful conversion to the world's first shore-powered jackup. We aim to use this experience to help drive efficiencies and sustainability initiatives across the larger fleet. This is a great example of where our complementary cultures and increased scale can amplify results and further help our customers achieve their goals.
It is also an example of where high utilization with strategic customers can create benefits. Where operators have preferred partners with long-term contracts, they are more willing to invest in the assets. At Noble, our customers have previously contributed to upgrade our drill ships, and Equinor has recently made investments in the Noble Lloyd Noble jackup. For Maersk Drilling, Aker BP and Equinor are making substantial investments towards sustainability initiatives on their rigs in Norway. We think this is very important. We think that type of partnership is only available to a select few drilling contractors, and we are sure that operators will look to partner with us to develop continued improvements in low-emission drilling. Shifting now to the cost side of shareholder value creation on slide 14, I want to briefly speak through the synergies we're targeting.
While there's a lot of detailed work and planning in front of both teams, we've identified $125 million in various cost synergies. We expect savings to come primarily through SG&A, operations support, supply chain, and inventory management. We also expect the transaction to deliver value through capital-related efficiencies as well as cost of capital benefits. We have high confidence that our $125 million target can be achieved within two years of closing on a run-rate basis. On slide 15, we show the Combined Company's capitalization and some highlights from the balance sheet. What I want to highlight to you today are the four blue boxes on the left. Just walking down the list, pro forma cash is approximately $900 million, net debt is approximately $600 million, total liquidity is greater than $1.7 billion, and net leverage is around one times.
These talk to the financial strength of the Combined Company, and we are committed to protecting this strong combined balance sheet through continued financial discipline. That commitment includes making the right economic decisions for our shareholders on capital allocation decisions. Moving with me to slide 16, the message I want to emphasize here is the added resiliency that comes with the combined contracts and backlog. As I mentioned earlier, we're quite pleased with the balance of this combined fleet, and that reads across all measurements: asset class, customers, and geography. Revenue that is balanced in this way will increase the stability of cash flows that the Combined Company can generate. Now I'm on page 17. These two charts show historical movements in the ultra-deepwater drillship market on the left and the harsh environment jackup market on the right.
We've seen some encouraging improvements this year in the UDW space and continued stability in the harsh jackup demand. This slide provides some good context for the next slide. So before we turn, I'll just note current trends have UDW drillship fixtures approaching $300,000 per day in some regions and harsh jackups plus or minus $100,000 per day. Slide 18. This page has a lot of information, but the intent is to illustrate the free cash flow generation potential of the Combined Company under hypothetical market conditions. The table on the left gives three unique day rate scenarios and the resulting illustrative EBITDA and free cash flows. Scenario A is the most familiar range for recent rig day rates. Moving right through B and C, we highlight how EBITDA and free cash flow both quickly scale.
On the right-hand side of the page, we convert that to what those scenarios would imply on a free cash flow per share basis. We believe the Combined Company has the potential to generate around $2.75 in free cash flow per share in 2023, which is the first full year after closing. That is represented by the yellow bar and gives the 11% free cash flow yield on the industry chart shown back on slide seven. We believe the combination of Noble and Maersk Drilling has enormous potential to generate free cash flow, and combined with a robust balance sheet, we'll create an extremely attractive free cash flow vehicle in not just the offshore drilling sector, but also in the broader energy services sector, so before we wrap up and take a few questions, let me recap the four main points I want you to take away.
First, we are creating a world-class offshore driller with great rigs and the best people in the business. Second, we enhance our customers' experience and our ability to deliver sustainable and quality service. Third, this transaction is accretive to all shareholders and accretive to free cash flow per share. And lastly, we are committed to financial discipline, generating free cash flow, and responsibly returning capital to shareholders. We are excited to announce this agreement today and are excited to move forward as a Combined Company that is stronger together. Thank you for your attention, and thank you for your interest in Noble and Maersk Drilling. With that, I'll hand it back to Sam to open the line up for questions.
Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two, and when preparing to ask your question, please ensure your line is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Fredrik Stene from Clarksons Platou Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead with your question.
Hey, guys. Fredrik from Clarksons here. First of all, congratulations to the both of you. Definitely great to see consolidation here, and I definitely believe that the two of you are a good match. I have two questions today. The first one relates to, if you're able to, could you share some color around the share exchange ratio here in terms of how you have agreed on what you have agreed on? I just think it would be interesting to get some pricing color on the discussions that you've had over the last few months. Second question would be a simple one. Credit and debt-wise, will this be structured into separate silos, or will you restructure the debt to have fewer facilities or collateral on all assets in the end?
Sure, Fredrik. Thank you. And Claus, it's okay. Maybe I'll tackle the ratio question first, and please feel free to jump in. So as you can imagine, we on the Noble side looked at a variety of different valuation methodologies as we always would and do. And out of those, we always pay a lot of—and we've said this before—we pay a lot of attention to the life of asset discounted cash flow. We think that's a good way to look at the drilling business and always have. So we came up with ratio. It is a great deal for all shareholders.
I think it's important to always remind how transformational this deal is and the read across of not only the cost synergies, but also the synergies that come from scale and a lot of the things I've mentioned already: scale, the improved customer experience, and the benefits of being a larger and more global company together. It's accretive overall life of asset FCF for both shareholders, and it's accretive for cash flow as well. So yeah, we're happy. I don't know if Claus wanted to add to that, but we're very happy.
No, I don't want to add anything particular, Robert, just to say that the exchange ratio and the 50/50 ratio that we're announcing, I mean, also signals value creation to shareholders, great potential, but also what you would say a merger that is balanced in the right way. So I think both sides are very happy with this allocation of shares.
Yeah, and as far as your question around.
Yeah, what that?
Debt structure will look like.
Yeah.
Oh, cool.
Sorry. Yeah, around your question around the debt structure going forward, look, we're going to work hard on that, and we're going to do what really yields us the most flexibility and lowest cost of capital. So stay tuned on that.
We think with the metrics this combined company will have that we mentioned earlier, that we have flexibility and optionality around timing on that.
Yeah, I appreciate your call here. I think just as a final comment, from a BP perspective, this seems to me like a merger of equals and that you're definitely going to benefit from the synergies to both of you. It was more related to market pricing. But yeah, I really appreciate the call on everything here, and again, congratulations.
Thanks, Frederick.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Greg Lewis of BTIG. Greg, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hey, thank you, and good afternoon, good morning, everybody. And hey, congratulations on this. This definitely caught us by surprise. So yeah, congratulations. Robert or team, I guess my first question is kind of a follow-up around capital allocation. Noble coming out of restructuring had basically net debt zero, right? That being said, we now have a lot of cash on the balance sheet. Realizing that the ink's not even dry on this transaction, as we think about reactivations and potential upgrades, whether a rig needs MPD, how much cash do we kind of think about needing on the balance sheet for flexibility, realizing you're probably not going to be running out and buying any more rigs anytime soon?
Yeah, I can certainly agree with your last statement there in terms of certainly new builds, if that's what you're referencing. Yeah, so look, it's a good question. This is going to be a combined and split board, as we outlined, and so the new board together are going to make those decisions on closing, and I'm not going to get ahead of that. I've promised a bunch of times during the script that we will be disciplined. I think if you look at the metrics, some of the metrics we've listed, and you look at the Free Cash Flow generation potential of this combined business, you'll notice that we have an enormous amount of liquidity, and that further bolstered in an improving market scenario with cash flow coming from the combined company, so we think we'll have flexibility to look at what may come across.
We have said on the Noble side previously that to reactivate a new, excuse me, a cold stack rig, that we're going to be disciplined there, that we would look for a return for our shareholders within the first contract of such reactivation, unless there was some extenuating circumstance or customer reason to do anything differently, and I certainly would anticipate that discipline continues on closing and with the combined company. I'd also just note the asset sales that both sides had here have been tremendously helpful in setting up some of this flexibility.
Yeah, yeah, no, no, absolutely. And then just definitely not as familiar with the Maersk fleet as I am with the Noble fleet, but there is at least one idle semi that I see at Maersk. I guess as we think about the fleet over the next 12, 18, 24 months, realizing that there's, hey, Noble has rigs we want to put to work. I guess Maersk, Noble have rigs rolling off contract. Should we be thinking about other opportunities to kind of high-grade the fleet through subtraction post this transaction being closed?
Yeah, look, it's a good question. And I think the best way to answer it is to point you to two things. One, and this comes from both sides in our past discipline, but certainly speaking from my own experience, we have been rational and realistic about the outlook for our rigs. I think we've demonstrated that on both sides of this through the past few years. That's not going to change. Secondly, though, I want to point you to the utilization that I mentioned earlier of the combined fleet because I really think that's an incredibly important piece to this story. Both of these companies are noted for our abilities to keep rigs working. And in developing a cash flow story, utilization for a capital-intensive business like this is critically important.
It's one of the things that we love so much about this transaction is that we bring separate but equally important customer relationships and backlog in this history of utilization. A long way of saying I think this combined company has less work to do than some other places in the world.
Yeah, no doubt. All right, well, hey, thank you all very much. Very exciting. So thanks and good luck.
Thank you. Thanks, Greg.
Our next question comes from Samantha of Evercore ISI. Samantha, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Congratulations on getting this deal done in such a timely manner. I guess I'm kind of curious how the customer reactions have been so far. I realize that this was just announced to us, but I'm curious if you've had some conversations with some of your customers about what they thought of potentially this combination? And then in a similar vein, with the unique CEA that you have with Exxon, if there is now an opportunity to have similar types of arrangements with other customers in other regions of the world now that you have a greater scale?
Okay, thanks, Samantha. So I'll say I've spent my waking hours today getting ready for your questions here. And so I can't say that I have up-to-speed information post-announcement from our customers. I will say, and I think we highlighted it very clearly in the materials and in the spoken word, that we on both sides of this value the customer experience tremendously. From the earliest days of the discussion between the two companies, that was a tenet, and that was part of the shared culture that we recognized early on would make for a good fit. We've reached out to all of our customers immediately with the press release.
I'm particularly enthusiastic about some of the benefits that I highlighted in the prepared remarks around scale and some of the flexibility that that allows a larger company to help better serve customers just regionally, globally, and so that we can serve individual customers in more regions, but also through some of the ideas that we described around sustainability and some of the really important drivers for our customers' drilling programs right now, making sure that we're showing continuous improvement and innovation, particularly as related to sustainability. On the CEA point, we love that deal. We're very grateful to have that relationship and that support from Exxon. The deal, as struck, is flexible enough to allow additional rigs to come in under the CEA. It also allows flexibility really to shrink and grow with ExxonMobil's needs. It gives us tremendous contract visibility.
It's obviously up to Exxon what their drilling needs are, and I'm not going to predict any of that. I do think your question specifically was around extending that type of arrangement elsewhere. And I would point to some of the work that Maersk Drilling has done with some of their important customers in the North Sea. They have some really unique and really forward-leaning arrangements there. It's something that we've been watching and we think are very representative of the kind of relationship between suppliers and customers going forward in offshore. So I think both sides are in agreement on the best way to approach customers. We're open for any type of relationship that leverages that deeper partnership.
We think it drives efficiency and, as I've said a couple of times already, allows both the customers and ourselves to do some things that aren't available under a short-term contracting model.
Okay, great. Another question I had has to do with the regulatory approval. You have quite a dominant position in certain markets. Is that going to be a bit of a challenge to just kind of get through getting all the regulatory approvals to get this deal closed?
Yeah, well, look, this is a major cross-border transaction involving two multinational businesses. So naturally, various regulatory reviews are going to have to be satisfied. We'll work closely with regulators to obtain the required approvals, and we're confident in our ability to get the transaction closed.
Okay. And I realized, thank you for providing the four different sort of buckets that you're looking for your cost synergies. Is that listed in sort of like in terms of the greatest contribution from left to right there, sort of like you'll get the most benefit from just SG&A and the least from the spares and CapEx efficiency?
No, it's not in numerical order per se. I would say that probably the two left-hand boxes are slightly more additive than the two right-hand boxes from what we've identified today. But as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we still have a lot of work to do as we plan this integration to realize the full synergy potential.
Okay. I think that pretty much does it for me. Thank you very much and congratulations again.
Thank you, Samantha.
Our next question comes from Karl of ABG. Karl, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi guys. Thank you for taking my question. This is Karl Fredrik at Evercore ISI. With regards to cost synergies, could you elaborate on the proportion which is that the evidence out there that is linked to SG&A? That would be very helpful, and also in terms of getting shareholder approval and achieving those rates, what is the applicable hurdle rate in the U.S.?
Yeah, okay. So I'm afraid to have, I guess, a kind of a slightly disappointing answer to your first question there. And we're not prepared to really give a lot more detail than what we've given here on the synergies, including some of the color I just gave. But I will, I guess, just, I can add to it that we do think those will be front-loaded. And we do have confidence in achieving the target there. On the shareholder approval, it's actually a Cayman vote, and it's a two-thirds vote.
Okay, thank you so much.
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question today, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. Our next question comes from Lee Dunlop of J.P. Morgan. Lee, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hello. Just wanted to clarify you stated there was support from the main shareholders of both companies. I just wanted to know if you could just elaborate what that means. I assume it means they've signed agreements and whether the nature of them holding tight to the agreement and do they have any exit rights to change their mind.
Yeah, look, so I'll let me say just a little and then feel free to jump in if you'd prefer. But we do have agreements. We are not going to say a whole lot about the nature of those agreements, unfortunately. We mentioned in the prepared remarks that we're very grateful to the shareholders that some support ahead of time and would express that appreciation once again. We anticipate this to be strongly supported. We think this strategic rationale really speaks for itself here.
Okay, thank you very much.
Our next question comes from James Thompson of J.P. Morgan. James, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks very much for the presentation. This morning, just quickly for me, just wondering perhaps if you could just give us a flavor of the kind of committed shareholder return strategy. The balance sheet is obviously very, very strong post-combination as it was pre as well, but very strong there. You outlined a healthy free cash flow outlook for various scenarios. So it'd be good to know or good to understand how you're thinking about that. Is this something you wish to kind of put in place next year? What might be the sort of basis of it? That'd be really helpful. Thank you.
Yeah, so I mentioned before that the combined board is going to make those decisions on close. But a tenet here is the importance of free cash flow generation. And this is a great platform, as you referenced, and I've said a couple of times now. Not sure there's a whole lot more I can say. We will evaluate the financial priorities of the company, of the combined company on close. And I think right now we'd just reiterate that the generation of cash flow and return to shareholders is a key tenet of the combined company.
Okay, okay. Thank you, Robert. Just in terms of the ultra deep water portion of it, if you'd like to know more, please. Obviously, rates have been moving in 2021, as you laid out on slide 17. Kind of can you give us a sort of sense of confidence of those rates being sustained going into sort of 2022 and the capacity that you're marketing for 2023?
Sure, yeah. It's a good question. So we've had a particularly strong 2021, as you mentioned, in the shares. I think there's a couple of important points on just the UDW market specifically. It has improved worldwide. It has been led by the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, which is where we're, as I mentioned in the prepared comments, we're seeing rates approaching $300,000 a day. As we look at some of the forward indicators across the globe, we see a steady improvement of demand. And so we think that that plays out into 2022 and 2023 across the UDW sector. I would also, I guess, say that if you segment down a little bit further and just look at the very best rigs out there, that's where you really start to see the breakover above that kind of 85% utilization mark where we traditionally see some pricing improvement.
So I would caution, if you just look broadly at drilling units globally, it tells a little bit of a different story than if you segment that analysis down into working UDW rigs that represent best rigs in class. And as I've noted, one of the great things about this combination is we both bring top-notch rigs and they're largely working. And so I think that's really important and somewhat unique to the combination. So, long way of saying, we see continuing improvement on the rate side, supply-demand driven, and glad to have our rigs out in the marketplace so that we can take advantage of some of the operational leverage that we've shown in the presentation.
I really appreciate that. Thank you very much. Congratulations on that.
Thanks, James.
There are no further questions, so I'd like to hand back to the management team for any closing remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for your participation on the call today. Sam, we appreciate your time coordinating today's call. Have a good day, everyone.
Thank you, everybody. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect the lines.