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Guidance

Dec 2, 2021

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Newmont's 2022 guidance webcast. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Thomas Ronald Palmer, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Good morning, and thank you for joining Newmont's 2022 guidance webcast. Today, I'm joined by Rob Atkinson and Nancy Buese, along with other members of our executive team, and we will be available to answer questions at the end of the call. Before I begin, please note our cautionary statement and refer to our SEC filings, which can be found on our website. 2021 has been important for Newmont as we near the end of our 100th year. It has given us the opportunity to reflect on our company, our industry, and the lessons we have learned. Underpinned by an unmatched portfolio of world-class long-life operations and an organic project pipeline that is the best in the industry, Newmont has continued to build on a solid foundation as the world's leading gold company.

Our 2022 and longer-term outlook remains strong as we enter a period of significant investment into our project pipeline. An investment that will grow production, improve margins, and extend mine life. As we look ahead towards Newmont's next 100 years, our strategy is crystal clear. We remain focused on delivering long-term value to all of our stakeholders through our unwavering commitment to sustainable and responsible mining. Before we dive into guidance, I wanted to spend a few minutes discussing some of the things that we're doing to lead the industry and position Newmont for sustainable success over the long term. At Newmont, we firmly believe that the COVID-19 vaccines are critical in combating the spread of the virus, and we will continue to make decisions that prioritize the health and safety of our workforce and local communities above all else.

To protect our people and limit the impact that the global pandemic has on our operations, we are deliberately moving towards a position where all of our global workforce will be required to be fully vaccinated. In Australia, Canada, and Peru, we are adhering to national vaccination mandates already in place, and we are very encouraged by the quick uptake as a result. In the United States, we have set a requirement that all employees and third-party workers at Cripple Creek & Victor and our corporate offices are to be fully vaccinated by the end of January next year. In Central and South America, vaccination rates at our operations largely outpace national rates, due in part to our global community support fund, which seeks to improve the availability and deployment of vaccines and deliver education and awareness campaigns.

In Ghana, where vaccination availability remains low, we are currently working with Ghana Health Service and the American Chamber of Commerce to secure and deploy nearly 100,000 doses to our workforce, their families, and our local communities over the coming months. In November last year, Newmont led the industry in announcing greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, which importantly were validated and approved by SBTi, providing independent and transparent third-party assurance. We followed up on that announcement with a commitment to invest $500 million over five years to support the pathways necessary to meet these targets. We made these commitments because we firmly believe that we must make bold, lasting changes to create a bright and healthy future.

Last month, we took another important step by announcing a new strategic alliance with Caterpillar, working together to lead a fundamental change in the mining industry through the rapid development and deployment of all-electric, autonomous mining systems to achieve zero emissions mining. To support this goal, Newmont has committed an initial $100 million focused on automation and electrification at our Cripple Creek & Victor open-pit mine in Colorado and our Tanami underground mine in Australia. Our ambitious goals for this work involve the introduction of an autonomous haul truck fleet at CC&V by the end of 2023, and then transitioning to a fleet of autonomous battery electric haul trucks beginning in 2026. At Tanami, the deployment of a fleet of battery electric underground haul trucks by 2024 in conjunction with the commissioning of the expansion project's production shaft.

We will then work with Cat to develop the autonomous technology for this fleet by 2025. Targeting the full deployment of our battery electric, autonomous underground haulage fleet by the end of 2026. Leveraging Newmont's scale, mine life, and operating capabilities, this groundbreaking strategic alliance sets the stage for the rapid development and deployment of these technologies, ultimately improving safety, productivity, and energy efficiency across the mining industry. At Newmont, we have created a robust and diverse portfolio of operations and projects around the globe, and we believe that where we choose to operate matters. Among our 12 operating mines and two joint ventures, over 90% of our attributable gold production comes from top-tier jurisdictions. Underpinning our portfolio is a robust foundation of reserves and resources, combined with the gold industry's best organic project pipeline.

Importantly, all are managed through our integrated operating model, which has a proven track record of delivering value to all of our stakeholders. Newmont has developed an unmatched and industry-leading organic project pipeline, laying the pathway to steady production and cash flow well into the 2040s. In addition to our two projects currently under construction, the Ahafo North and the Tanami Expansion, we have three key development projects slated for full funds approval in 2022. Yanacocha Sulfides, Pamour at Porcupine, and the first phase of expansion at Cerro Negro. Rob will provide some more detail on these projects shortly. These development projects, along with all of the projects shaded on this slide, are included in our guidance and represent the key components to maintaining Newmont's steady production profile for at least the next decade.

The other longer-term projects in our pipeline represent growth opportunities for later this decade and beyond 2030, and add significant optionality to our portfolio. Our three mega projects, Norte Abierto, Nueva Unión, and Galore Creek, also provide a natural exposure to copper, a material of growing importance for reducing carbon emissions and facilitating the ongoing transition to a new energy economy. When we bring the first of these mega projects forward into our production profile, Newmont's metal production will include around 15%-20% copper from that point forward. Beyond our current project pipeline, Newmont has the most extensive exploration program in the gold industry, focused on extending mine life, developing districts, and discovering new opportunities in top-tier mining jurisdictions. Exploration has always been, and continues to be, a core competency at Newmont and is a critical component of our capital allocation strategy.

In 2022, we expect to invest around $300 million in exploration, with 80% of that spend dedicated to our many near mine brownfield opportunities and the remaining 20% directed towards greenfield exploration. We will be progressing our three most promising greenfield exploration projects, Espérance in French Guiana, Coffee in the Yukon, and Saddle North in British Columbia. Over the next five years, we expect to spend more than $250 million on exploration for these three projects, a significant undertaking as Newmont has never progressed three greenfield projects of this scale simultaneously. On average, our target is to replace reserves over a five-year period. This year, we are on track to replace approximately two-thirds of our depletion, and we look forward to providing a full report of our progress when we release our year-end reserves and resources early next year.

Newmont's world-class exploration program, together with our unmatched project pipeline, will sustain steady production for at least the next decade. Consistent with last year, our portfolio will produce more than 6 billion ounces of attributable gold each year through until at least 2031, balanced across each of our four regions. This profile is then further enhanced by the production of more than 1 million gold equivalent ounces from silver, lead, and zinc at Penasquito and copper at Boddington and Yanacocha. Combined, we will deliver nearly 8 million attributable gold equivalent ounces per year for the next decade, the most of any company in our industry. As we near the end of the year and reflect on our performance and accomplishments, we are proud of what we have delivered in our centenary year.

First and foremost, our focus has remained on protecting the health and well-being of our workforce and local communities as the world continues to grapple with the pandemic. We continued to be recognized for our leading ESG performance, building new pathways to decarbonization, and publishing our first climate strategy report. We are finishing the year strongly and remain on track to deliver 6 million ounces of gold at all-in sustaining costs of $1,050 per ounce, and 1.3 million gold equivalent ounces from copper, silver, lead, and zinc. We generated over $1.7 billion in free cash flow through the third quarter, of which more than 97% was attributable to Newmont. We remain on track to return more than $2 billion to shareholders through our industry-leading dividends and share buybacks in 2021.

In addition to this, we completed the acquisition of GT Gold, commissioned the gold industry's first fully autonomous haul fleet at Boddington, and continued to advance our most profitable near-term projects. Turning now to our long-term guidance. At Newmont, we continue to develop our plans based on conservative assumptions. We utilize a $1,200 gold price to calculate our reserves and develop our mine plans. The productivity assumptions built into our plans are based on previous best demonstrated performance. Due to sustained higher gold prices over the last two years, we are now assuming an $1,800 per ounce gold price for costs applicable to sales and all-in sustaining costs. At this gold price, we expect to add around $30 per ounce from higher royalties and production taxes.

In addition to around $50 per ounce from higher inflation, which includes the impacts from a tightening labor market, increased pressure on input commodity prices, and higher freight costs. We are also building in ongoing COVID-related health and safety protocols into our assumptions going forward, adding around $10 per ounce to our all-in sustaining costs. Our five-year outlook shows steady increases to production and declining costs over time due to our investment into new lower cost production, combined with our ongoing discipline in delivering Full Potential improvements every year. Over the next five years, we will steadily improve our attributable gold production to 6.2 million-6.8 million ounces.

This is further enhanced by the production of around 1.5 million gold equivalent ounces from copper, silver, lead, and zinc, which represents nearly 20% of Newmont's total production profile of around 8 million gold equivalent ounces. This improvement is largely driven by a ramp-up in production from pandemic-related delays in 2021, higher grade and improvements in productivity from Boddington's autonomous haul fleet into Ahafo's underground mining method change, higher silver, lead, and zinc production from Penasquito beginning in 2023, and new ounces from both the Ahafo North and the Tanami Expansion, both adding production beginning in 2024. These additional ounces will also help to reduce costs over the next five years. Our all-in sustaining costs next year are expected to be largely in line with 2021 at $1,050 per ounce at an $1,800 gold price.

Costs will steadily improve, bringing our gold all-in sustaining costs to between $920 and $1,020 per ounce by 2024, also at an $1,800 gold price assumption. This overall cost improvement is supported by higher production from Boddington, Ahafo, Penasquito, and Cerro Negro, combined with our investment in new lower cost production from Ahafo North and the Tanami Expansion. It is also worth noting that all of the capital spend associated with the Yanacocha Sulfides project is included in our five-year guidance, but that it will only begin delivering low cost gold and copper production from that investment in 2026. Our near-term cost reductions are also supported by the delivery of Full Potential improvements across our 12 managed operations.

Our sites and projects are managed through our proven integrated operating model, supported by a deep bench of experienced leaders and technical experts. Our strength comes from leveraging our collective experience, sharing knowledge and talent across our operations, and applying the best practices and lessons learned across our global business. Our Full Potential program is a prime example of this. Since 2014, it has delivered more than $4 billion in value from cost reductions and productivity improvements across our business. Next year, we expect to deliver $290 million of value from more than 250 Full Potential projects. Value that is built into our business plans and guidance. Turning now to a different view of the strength of our portfolio as we move into 2022.

Our all-in sustaining costs for our full production profile next year are expected to be $1,030 per gold equivalent ounce, and this is driven by our managed world-class assets and nicely balanced across our four global regions. As you look at this chart, I'd point out two things. First, nearly three-quarters of our attributable GEO production in 2022 comes from world-class assets in top-tier jurisdictions. Secondly, that over 35% of our production is coming at low cost from Boddington and Penasquito alone. It's also worth noting that the significant investments that we are making at Tanami, Ahafo, Yanacocha, Porcupine, and Cerro Negro will improve our costs and increase production at all of these assets over time. With that, I'll turn it over to Rob to take us through our site level guidance and give us an update on our near-term projects.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Thank you, Tom, and good morning. We have the strongest and most sustainable portfolio in the industry, and I'm proud of our people who continue to safely execute our strategy day in, day out. We remain focused on growing margins and our global diverse portfolio of assets, together with our projects, has positioned Newmont to safely deliver production and cost improvements in 2022 and beyond. Turning to the next slide, I'll step through the site-level details, starting with our operations in Australia. Boddington is expected to deliver a strong performance next year as the site reaches higher gold and copper grades while sustaining mill throughput of more than 40 million tons per annum. Production at Boddington also benefits from the significant efficiency improvements due to the implementation of the gold industry's first autonomous haulage system, which continues to improve safety and productivity and increase tons mined.

I'm pleased with the progress being made at Boddington with the AHS fleet, and I'm confident that the mine is really starting to tick. We have already achieved total movement of 280,000 tons in a single shift, which is well above what is required to achieve the 2022 business plan. It's important to note that implementing the industry's first AHS fleet is a major accomplishment, and the lessons we have learned will benefit not only Newmont, but the gold industry as a whole. We will look to leverage this technology and our experience at Boddington as we expand the use of autonomous solutions across our global business. In addition to AHS, Boddington will continue stripping in the South Pit, and we will begin a new layback in the North Pit in 2023.

Both are significant expansions to extend mine life at this cornerstone asset. At Tanami, we will maintain steady production through 2023, despite reaching deeper sections of the mine. Production is expected to increase from the ramp-up of Tanami Expansion 2, delivering significant ounce, cost, and efficiency improvements starting in 2024, which I'll cover in more detail on the next slide. Our Tanami operation has produced over 10 million ounces over the last 35 years, and it's a prime example of how our operating and technical discipline have expanded margins and unlocked value. In 2017, we successfully delivered the first expansion project, and in early 2019, we completed the power project, both of which established a very solid foundation for us to continue growing this world-class asset.

Our current investment in the second expansion has the potential to extend the mine life beyond 2040, supporting Tanami's future as a long life and low cost producer. This expansion will deliver significant value through the development of a nearly one mile deep production shaft and supporting infrastructure, lowering operating costs by approximately 10% through reduced underground hauling. In addition, Tanami Expansion 2 will provide a platform for us to further explore a prolific mineral endowment in the district, which has the potential to grow annual production to more than 700,000 ounces per year. The team has made terrific progress, and the overall project is more than 35% complete. We continue to advance the construction of the headframe, and today the shaft reaming is over 70% finished.

In addition, we have completed nearly 80% of the procurement and nearly 70% of the engineering, keeping us on track to deliver the project in 2024. Moving to North America. Penasquito is Mexico's largest gold mine, second-largest silver mine, and one of the country's largest producers of zinc and lead. The site is expected to deliver lower gold production and steady copper production next year due to the natural sequencing of a large polymetallic mine, along with lower grade and harder ore mined from the Chile Colorado Pit.

In conjunction with the phase seven stripping program underway in the Penasquito Pit, the site will begin stripping the next phase of the Chile Colorado Pit, which will deliver higher silver, lead, and zinc production starting in 2023. Also in 2023, Penasquito will begin stripping phase eight of the Penasquito Pit, which will deliver higher grade ore in 2024. Moving to CC&V, production will decrease slightly due to lower ore grade as we extend mine life through the addition of a resource layback in 2023, adding production that isn't currently in our reserves from our mine here in Colorado. At Musselwhite and Éléonore, both sites are expected to deliver steady improvements beginning next year, largely due to higher productivity achieved from the execution of our Full Potential initiatives and through the greater use of jumbos and through adoption of Caterpillar remote loaders.

Musselwhite is expected to reach higher grades as mining progresses to the north in the PQ Deeps area. At Éléonore, we continue to increase development rates as the site continues to transition to lower levels in the mine. Across the Porcupine, the site benefits from higher grades at Hoyle, Borden, and Hollinger next year. To extend mine life at Porcupine and continue the processing of high-grade ore from Borden and Hoyle Pond, the team is advancing. Located 10 km from the Porcupine plant, the Pamour layback adds 1.6 million ounces of profitable gold production and extends mine life at Porcupine through 2035. By leveraging the existing infrastructure and processing facilities already in place, the Pamour project will optimize mill capacity in the coming years, adding low cost volume and supporting further mining at Borden and Hoyle Pond.

In addition, the development of this project provides us time to explore the Borden, Hoyle Pond, and Dome ore bodies in this proven mining district to find the next profitable extension of the Porcupine mine. We expect to bring Pamour for full funds approval next year and are planning to commence dewatering efforts in late 2022. Moving to South America. Our South American region includes three managed operations and our 40% equity investment in the Pueblo Viejo joint venture. Merian will deliver higher production and lower costs next year due to mining higher-grade ore from the Moraba Pit. Production is expected to slightly decline starting in 2023 as we enter the next phase of stripping in the Merian pit and continue mining harder, higher grade ore.

The site continues to utilize an ore blending strategy to optimize mill performance, balancing harder rock with softer saprolite material to maintain steady throughput. Over to Cerro Negro, productivity and performance continues to improve, steadily increasing development rates and ore tons processed. We expect production next year to remain in line with 2021, largely due to pandemic-related delays in development rates, which will limit access to higher-grade ore in 2022. As we look ahead, Cerro Negro's production will steadily increase and unit costs will decline as we realize the benefits from Full Potential productivity improvements and the investment in organic district expansions, which I'll cover in more detail shortly. Moving to Yanacocha, the site will continue to deliver leach only production while developing the first phase of the Sulfides project.

Our team is focused on higher grades, optimal ore placement, and treatment on leach pads. We remain very excited about the opportunity to develop Sulfide potential at Yanacocha. Yanacocha is one of the largest and most productive gold mines in South America, generating nearly 40 million ounces of gold since 1993. The first phase of the Sulfides project is focused on developing the Yanacocha Verde and Chaquicocha deposits, which will extend operations into the 2040s. With this multi-decade mine life from just the first phase, the Sulfides project generates profitable production of approximately 525,000 gold equivalent ounces per year at attractive all-in sustaining costs below $800 per ounce.

As previously announced, given the current status of the pandemic in Peru and the potential for more contagious variants, we have extended our full funding decision for the Yanacocha Sulfides project to the second half of 2022, and we'll progress the project as the pandemic allows. As a result, we now expect our consolidated capital investment to be approximately $2.5 billion, which includes the construction of a concentrator and an autoclave to produce 45% gold, 45% copper, and 10% silver. The increase in the updated capital includes refined estimates based on advanced engineering, higher market rates, which are being experienced broadly by the industry, and updates to our operating plans, including impacts from COVID-19, which has caused a one-year delay to the project timeline.

Once approved, the project will have a three-year development schedule, with first gold anticipated in 2025 and commercial production in 2026. Newmont remains committed to the Sulfides project and will be investing at least $500 million through 2022 to advance critical path activities, including detailed engineering, long lead procurement such as autoclaves, flotation cells, and transformers, earthworks, and the installation of accommodation facilities for the construction and full-time workforce. Looking ahead, we're evaluating the second and the third phases of the Yanacocha project, which have the potential to further extend the mine life for decades with significant levels of gold and copper production. When we initially acquired Cerro Negro in 2019, we reduced reserves and resources until we could be confident that Newmont's disciplined drilling program and conversion requirements were properly in place.

As Tom mentioned previously, exploration is a core competency at Newmont, and we remain very excited about the district potential in Cerro Negro. Our first expansion is well underway, and it includes the development of the Marianas and Eastern Districts, which will extend existing operations beyond 2030 and increase annual production to above 350,000 ounces beginning in 2024. Compared to 2020, that will be a production improvement of well over 50%. This investment also provides a platform for further exploration and organic growth through future ways of expansion. Since acquiring Cerro Negro in 2019, Newmont has doubled the size of our land package to over 1,000 sq km, demonstrating our confidence in this highly prospective and underexplored gold district.

We look forward to bringing you further updates about our progress at Cerro Negro as we bring this project for full funds approval next year. Now, moving to Africa. Akyem is positioned to deliver steady production next year as the site benefits from Full Potential improvements to mill productivity. Next year, we will begin stripping a new layback, which will extend open-pit mine life by an additional four years, providing future optionality as we continue to evaluate underground and open-pit growth opportunities. Next year, we will begin construction of an underground exploration decline, spending $35 million to allow for further drilling as we make progress towards the next exciting chapter at Akyem. At Ahafo, production is expected to remain strong, steadily increasing through 2024 due to higher grades from the Subika open pit and the change in our mining method at Subika underground.

This change has allowed the site to safely increase underground tonnes mined while improving mining costs. Similar to Tanami in Australia, the Ahafo district has significant upside potential with underground opportunities at Apensu and further growth at Subika, along with the Ahafo North project, the next generation of mining in Ghana. In July this year, our board of directors approved full funding for Ahafo North, expanding our existing footprint in Ghana and adding more than 3 million ounces of gold production over an initial 13-year mine length. Located approximately 30 kilometers north of our existing Ahafo South operations, the Ahafo North project will include four open pit mines and the construction of a standalone mill to produce approximately 300,000 ounces per year at very attractive all-in sustaining costs below $700 per ounce.

Combined with Ahafo South, we expect to deliver an average of 850,000 gold ounces per year through 2030, making Ahafo one of the world's great mining complexes. We have conducted extensive regulatory and community engagements to ensure that we earn and maintain social acceptance throughout Ahafo North's lifecycle, and we will work to create lasting value for host communities through enhanced local sourcing and hiring. One key aspect of Ahafo North is our workforce planning, which includes a target to achieve gender parity in the workforce when operations begin, an important and a deliberate step to improve female representation at our operating sites. We are very excited about progressing Ahafo North, and we look forward to bringing you updates as we develop this new mine over the next two years. Finally, shifting over to Nevada.

Our ownership interest of 38.5% of Nevada Gold Mines will contribute approximately 1.25 million ounces of production for Newmont next year at all-in sustaining costs of $1,050 per ounce. As our partners mentioned recently, Nevada Gold Mines is also experiencing cost pressures from inflation in line with what we are seeing at many of our managed operating sites. Nevada Gold Mines is a significant and important contributor to Newmont, and we very much look forward to our managing and operating partner delivering the 2022 plan safely, efficiently, and at the margins expected. Now I'll hand it over to Nancy for more on our financial outlook.

Nancy K. Buese
EVP and CFO, Newmont

Thanks, Rob. Let's begin with a review of our consolidated capital and expense outlook. We continue to invest in our future, and for 2022, we expect sustaining capital to remain steady at $1 billion. Development capital will increase to $1.4 billion as we enter a period of full projects from our unmatched pipeline and an ongoing commitment to our robust exploration strategy. We currently have $7.6 billion in liquidity and a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.2 x, well below our target of a net debt to EBITDA ratio of under 1.0 x, preserving Newmont's financial strength and optionality to sustain and grow the business. We remain on track to return more than $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and opportunistic share buybacks in 2021.

Our balanced global portfolio, combined with our discipline and integrated operating model, provides significant leverage to higher gold prices from the largest production base in the world. For every $100 increase in gold prices above our base assumption, Newmont delivers $400 million of incremental attributable free cash flow per year. Newmont is the only company in the gold mining industry with the ability to generate these levels of attributable free cash flow, allowing us to confidently execute our capital allocation priorities and maintain our position as the world's leading gold company. In October last year, we led the gold industry by announcing our dividend framework, differentiating ourselves with a clear and decisive strategy to provide stable and predictable returns to our shareholders.

This framework provides a base annualized dividend of $1 per share and the potential to receive between 40% and 60% of the incremental attributable free cash flow generated above a $1,200 gold price. As a reminder, the third quarter dividend of $0.55 per share was calibrated at an $1,800 gold price assumption and a 40% distribution of incremental free cash flow, resulting in a dividend yield of over 4%. Since introducing our dividend framework in October last year, Newmont has returned more than $1.6 billion to shareholders. Assuming similar gold prices in 2022, Newmont would expect to return at least $1.8 billion through our industry-leading dividend framework, demonstrating our confidence in the long-term value of our business and our ability to maintain financial flexibility while steadily reinvesting in our operations.

With that, I'll hand it back to Tom to wrap up.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Thanks, Nancy. As we head into 2022, our outlook remains strong as we steadily increase production and improve costs over time through our global portfolio of world-class long-life operations, robust organic project pipeline, and proven integrated operating model. Newmont is well positioned to lead the gold industry today and well into the future as we continue to deliver long-term value to all of our stakeholders through sustainable and responsible mining. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question will come from Jacqueline Przybylowski of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jacqueline Przybylowski
Managing Director, Equity Research, Metals & Mining, BMO Capital Markets

Thanks very much. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to talk about the projects that you're working with Caterpillar on autonomous and EV. Is that, I think you said, you know, 2024, 2026 kinda timeframe, is that to get to a full switch over of the fleet? Or can you talk a little bit about, like, what the process is for how that fleet gets renewed? Thank you.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Thanks, Jackie, and good morning. Yes, what we're looking to do with Caterpillar is accelerate the product development cycle by working together where we share the risk of developing both underground and open pit autonomous and electric vehicles. If we wait and follow a traditional equipment development cycle, as we as a mining company or as a mining industry wait for the equipment manufacturers to develop an equipment on their normal cycle, 2030 will come and go. If we're serious about hitting our 2030 targets, then we need to behave differently.

We have worked with Caterpillar closely over the last 12 months to talk about how we can disrupt the industry, how we can disrupt the risk that we take as a mining company to introduce in a balanced way new technology, and how they disrupt their product development cycle so that we can develop this equipment that's going to be essential for achieving our 2030 goals, and then being well on the pathway to our net zero ambition that the mining industry is signed up for by 2050. The analogy I'd give is the work that I was part of a decade ago in the Pilbara with the introduction of autonomous haulage. That was not going very far, very fast.

We'd been playing with four trucks in a sand pit of a sectioned off area of one of the iron ore mines for four years. It wasn't until at that time we said we need to be serious about autonomous haulage. In that time, it was signing up with Komatsu and committing to 150 autonomous haul trucks within three years, even though that pathway was not clear. Others then followed. Caterpillar followed. I was with Rio Tinto at the time. BHP followed, FMG followed, and now you've got autonomous haul truck fleets and billions of tons being moved through the Pilbara, and now as we're doing, we're adopting it in the gold industry, and it will be applied across our industry over this next decade.

The engagement with Caterpillar is about making those commitments together to accelerate the development cycle so that we can achieve the ambitions that the industry has set and can play a leading role in doing that. Those time frames are about doing the work necessary to develop those vehicles in a production environment such that they can be proven up and then replicated across Newmont and then ultimately across the mining industry.

Jacqueline Przybylowski
Managing Director, Equity Research, Metals & Mining, BMO Capital Markets

If I'm just understanding you correctly, those time frames are to develop the technology. It doesn't sound like you're planning to have a full fleet refurbishment or anything like that in the next five or six years. Is that the right way to think about it?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

At Tanami, and I'll get Rob, you might wanna chip in as well. At Tanami, we're going to work with Caterpillar to develop the underground haul truck such that we have a fleet of 10 trucks running underground in battery electric mode with all the supporting infrastructure by 2024, and then we move to automate those trucks. At Cripple Creek & Victor, the technology is proven on autonomous haulage. We'll have that in place by the end of 2023, and then we'd be looking to bring the first of the open pit battery electric haul trucks to Cripple Creek & Victor by 2026, and then it's a transition with the open pit haul truck to battery electric. I'd just check, Rob, is there anything you'd wanna clarify on that for Jackie?

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

No, you covered it well, Tom and Jackie. It's very much a case of, in the next five years, making sure that we do have those electric fleets and automation. I think the other thing we should add is obviously electric fleets are not just plug and play. It's the whole electrical infrastructure you've got to set up, whether it's the battery charging, whether it's the fast charging, whether it's all the other electrics that you need. That's also a huge part of this project. This is really a move for us to get to electrification in that five-year period, both CC&V and Tanami.

Jacqueline Przybylowski
Managing Director, Equity Research, Metals & Mining, BMO Capital Markets

That's really helpful. Thanks for clarifying that. If I can ask just a second question. You mentioned you're replacing roughly two-thirds of your reserves or two-thirds of your depletion this year. Can you talk a little bit, like is there certain mines or certain regions which are challenging more than others? Or can you talk about like how that sort of shakes out across your portfolio?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah. I'll kick off, Jackie, and then Rob, I might get you to chip in with a little bit more detail. Certainly exploration programs, Jackie, have been impacted by COVID. That has been an ongoing influence this year. We also work through a multi-year program. Conversions will take place not necessarily in the calendar year, but we have a goal to, over a five-year period on average, to have replaced depletion, and we'll get ebbs and flows with that. It's probably a combination of two things, the natural ebb and flow of your exploration program, and COVID still has pretty significant impact on our industry through the course of this year.

Rob, did you wanna provide a bit of color on where we're seeing some, maybe some upside and maybe some challenges?

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Yeah, certainly, Tom. Jackie, I'll start off with the challenges this year. Certainly Yanacocha shouldn't come as any surprise there, you know, because of the COVID outbreak, we had challenges there getting drills on the ground, but also at Cerro Negro, the difficulty of getting drillers into that region of Argentina, again because of COVID. Because of the closure of the borders in Australia, the likes of our Tanami in Northern Territory, those were the challenges. However, at the same time, you know, the exploration team has done terrific work. We've prioritized well, and when we look at next year, certainly, you know, 40% of where we're gonna be drilling is at Tatogga, Coffee, at Penasquito, at Musselwhite and Éléonore. Certainly those are all areas that we're excited about.

Similar, you know, we get back into South America at Suriname, at Cerro Negro, and at Merian. Also, you know, the ounces that we weren't able to drill in Australia will be back at Tanami again. COVID's been the big major factor, and I think it's just those countries that we've spoken about for some time that have been the major challenges this year.

Jacqueline Przybylowski
Managing Director, Equity Research, Metals & Mining, BMO Capital Markets

That makes sense. Thanks very much. That's all my questions. I'll leave it for somebody else. Thank you.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Great. Thanks, Jackie.

Operator

The next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Tanya M. Jakusconek
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Metals and Mining, Scotiabank

Great. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking my questions. I'm sorry I wasn't able to get on the call right away. You may have addressed this, and if you have, I apologize. I just wanted to come back to just your guidance for 2023 and beyond, so longer term. Can I just make sure that I understand that in the 2023 and beyond, what have you included? Like, do you have any inflation? Do you have any additional COVID costs? I just wanna make sure I understand what's in the 2023 and beyond.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Okay. Thanks, Jackie, and good morning. If you're looking at that 2023 and beyond guidance and maybe comparing it back to our previous guidance, then I'd call out the following things. There is a lower production and mine sequence change that's having an impact of between $50-$60 an ounce. There is $30 an ounce associated with higher royalties and production taxes that come at the higher gold price that we're assuming. Then there's another $40 an ounce that's made up of two things. We assume around 3% guidance, so more back to our normal guidance assumption that we'd make, and we are maintaining an assumption that we'll have COVID protocols.

The combination of the order of about 3% escalation and COVID protocols makes up about $40 an ounce.

Tanya M. Jakusconek
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Metals and Mining, Scotiabank

Okay. That's for 2023 and beyond?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Correct.

Tanya M. Jakusconek
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Metals and Mining, Scotiabank

If I could come back to just a few other things. Again, I know Rob quickly touched on the higher CapEx at Yanacocha Sulfides moving up that to $2.5 billion.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah.

Tanya M. Jakusconek
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Metals and Mining, Scotiabank

Rob, can you go through the categories and break down that $500 million of additional capital where it came from? I know some of it was delay, one-year delay, but there was some inflation. If you can kinda just give us some buckets of where the increase came.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Go for it, Rob.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Jackie, do you want me to do that, Tom?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yes, please, Rob.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

The detailed engineering is the biggest one, Jackie, and that accounted for about $300 million across the board. Now, that also includes the different costs that it takes to do the work. The other $200 million dollars is associated with the delay in the project and also the COVID-related protocols that we've had to put in place, extra camp rooms, etc . Then, of course, the market-related inflation.

Tanya M. Jakusconek
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Metals and Mining, Scotiabank

Okay, that's helpful.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Rob, how much of the detailed engineering will we anticipate having had done by Q1, which is a significant-

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Yeah.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

De-risking factor?

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

By the fourth quarter this year, Tom, or early fourth quarter, we'll be at about 80%-90% of the engineering, which really takes away any risk of escalation from further work. So that's a really important point, 80%-90%.

Tanya M. Jakusconek
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Metals and Mining, Scotiabank

Okay, that's good. My last question is, you've given us lots of guidance for 2022 and beyond. Just kind of wondered, are you within your guidance for 2021 in terms of making your numbers there?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah. Thanks, Jackie. Yes, we're on track. Rob and I are spending a lot of time monitoring our operations, particularly our large operations, the Australia, the Tanami, the Penasquito, the Ahafo that are the needle-moving sites, and working very closely with the teams there to ensure that we safely close out the year. Rob's in regular contact with Greg Walker as Nevada Gold Mines needs to bring on a strong fourth quarter, and closely monitoring their performance as well. On track to meet our guidance and monitoring it very closely.

Tanya M. Jakusconek
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Metals and Mining, Scotiabank

Okay, great. That's good to hear. Thank you very much.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Thanks, Tanya.

Operator

The next question comes from Fahad Tariq of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Fahad Tariq
Director, Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just one from me. In 2024, it looks like the growth CapEx almost tripled. It did triple from about $300 million to $900 million. I'm just trying to get a sense of which projects are contributing to that, specifically in 2024. Thanks.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Thanks, Fahad. There are a few things at play there. You've got our decision to delay Yanacocha Sulfides. We'll push significant Yanacocha Sulfides spend into 2024. You're also seeing the tail of TE2 rolling into 2024, whereas the previous guidance, it would've been finishing up earlier. You've got more of Ahafo North coming in at 2024. Timing of Ahafo North as well.

Fahad Tariq
Director, Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Greg Barnes of TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Phillip Gregory Barnes
Managing Director and Head of Mining Equity Research, TD Securities

think I'll probably speak a few of them, Tom, then.

Thanks, Dan. Firstly on the CapEx again, as you roll additional projects into the end of the guidance, is $1.7 billion-$2 billion more the realistic CapEx guidance over the medium to longer term?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

No, it's Greg. It's going to be $600 million-$800 million on average. We've got, I guess, a couple of sets of stars lining up. It is the next two years, two and a half years are the most significant reinvestment period that Newmont's had in at least a generation. It's a bit of a combination of the pandemic having those projects stack up on each other a bit more than would've been our intent as we're sequencing them through a couple of years ago. You're sort of seeing those combined impacts.

As we move into the latter part of the guidance period, and as we look through to sort of the middle to the latter part of the decade, I think you'll see us come down to more of that $600 million-$800 million range. If you look at our project pipeline and see what's coming through there, it's within that window that you would start to see Ahafo come through. You might see at the very end of this decade, a Saddle North. Those projects are smaller scale than the sulfides project over the top.

One of the mega projects potentially towards the end of this decade, early the next, you might have a step up again, but if we do those in sequence, $600 million-$800 million is still a very good rule of thumb on average, for our portfolio.

Phillip Gregory Barnes
Managing Director and Head of Mining Equity Research, TD Securities

Okay. Just back to COVID. What happens at Cripple Creek, for example, if you don't get everybody vaccinated? Are people gonna be laid off or is there gonna be an impact on production or what do you do? How do you encourage higher vaccination rates at Nevada Gold Mines, where from what we're hearing, the vaccination rates are very low?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

I'll provide some more color as he's managing this one very closely. You start with providing or engaging with your teams and explaining why. We're doing that right around the world in terms of why it is so important that we get vaccinated to protect our health and safety and the health and safety of our communities. Lots of discussion around why we're making this change and why we're setting this requirement, and reminding people that we've lost 26 colleagues to this virus over the last 18 months. This is very real, and this has had a lasting impact on family and friends within our Newmont family over the last 18 months.

We provide access to vaccines through clinics and the like, and we give people time to work through that process. We do work to put in as we get to understand where people are going to land in terms of their decision making. We can put in plans in terms of contingencies to manage for folks who choose not to get vaccinated and therefore will not have a job at Newmont. I'll give you a couple of examples that I know Rob will probably give some more color on. We've just yesterday in Australia hit the required date for vaccinations in Western Australia. Boddington had about 50 people of a workforce of about 1,000 who chose not to be vaccinated.

Didn't miss a beat with those 50 people choosing to no longer work at Boddington. In Canada, we've got sites now at 100% vaccination rates. We've been through that through similar processes to what we're running at Cripple Creek & Victor. Rob, did you want to give a bit more color in terms of the sorts of things we're doing and our contingency plans as we work towards that into January date?

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Yeah. Thanks, Tom. It's a really important question, Greg, as Tom rightly said, this is something that we've been talking about for a long time. We're giving everybody plenty of advance warning of when these deadlines are approaching. That communication, that change, that persuasion, you know, is certainly a critical element of it. Certainly all of my line leaders has been spending an extraordinary amount of time, you know, having those discussions with our crews. We've also provided mobile clinics to the mines, and not only for our people, but also their families. We are first and foremost doing everything we possibly can to do that. However, at these drop dead dates, as Tom just highlighted, in the likes of Australia, people have made decisions to leave.

you know, we've certainly got contingency plans in place where we will bring in contractors. We will change our you know some aspects of our mining. We will do different coverage. We may run the plants differently, et cetera. certainly we continue to work very hard to maximizing that amount. We will definitely lose people, but at the same time, I think we've got good contingency plans in place to deal with it as and when and if it eventually arises.

Phillip Gregory Barnes
Managing Director and Head of Mining Equity Research, TD Securities

Have you had any discussions with Barrick about moving towards a similar mandate in Nevada?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

The conversations we have, and it's been the case I'd say through the industry, Greg, it's every circumstance is different, and it's really been as it has been through the whole pandemic. Just sharing lessons, sharing the experiences we've had, talking about how we what success we've had, where we'd do things differently. It's certainly been a case of sharing lessons, experiences, rather than rather than requiring or pushing for any certain outcome. Rob, you may wanna cover, you talk about this regularly with Greg in terms of our different experiences with some of these locations, particularly in the United States.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Yes. I think, Greg, that Nevada Gold Mines is also applying an awful lot of pragmatism to it. Certainly, you know, that if they were to bring in a rule like that, it would be a massive impact at the moment. I think they are taking a pragmatic approach to make sure that business continuity continues. They're obviously still doing a lot of education. Again, they're providing the availability of vaccines. They're working closely with the state government, etc . I think they have had to most definitely go down a road of pragmatism. You know, we're all keen to look after our people, but they're doing everything they can without mandating to really encourage, motivate people to take the vaccine.

Phillip Gregory Barnes
Managing Director and Head of Mining Equity Research, TD Securities

Thanks, Tom and Rob.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Thanks, Greg.

Operator

The next question comes from Joshua Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Joshua Wolfson
Director and Head of Global Mining Research, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks for taking my question. You know, a lot of detail provided on costs, so thank you very much for the disclosures. Maybe if I can just ask one, you know, tangential question on the cost side of things. You know, you mentioned, you know, the impact from COVID inflation across the asset base. Is there any kind of additional disclosure you can provide on regionally where perhaps those impacts are above average and where some of those impacts are below average?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah. Thanks, Josh. If I think about regional impacts, and if you look at our inflation of around, you know, it's 5% over and above what we'd normally assume in a year. Half of that is labor costs. When we say labor costs, it's both direct and indirect. It's our employees, but it's also our contracted services. Where we're seeing that higher is in both Canada and Australia. That would be more specific in those two mining centers where you've got some hot labor markets and that makes up a significant amount of that higher cost in the labor. 30% is materials and consumables, not including energy.

That's pretty consistent around the globe, between that 5%-7%. If I look at, you know, cyanide's up 7%-9%. Grinding media, you'll get a range of, you know, 7%-25%. Explosives are up 12%-18%. That's pretty consistent around the globe. The other big bucket is energy costs. That makes up about another 15%. That's pretty much we're seeing diesel prices up between 10% and 20%, natural gas prices up anywhere to 60%. Again, that's pretty consistent around the globe. Energy, materials, consumables are pretty consistent around the globe.

Labor, which is a big chunk of it, both direct and indirect, Australia and Canada are significant contributors.

Joshua Wolfson
Director and Head of Global Mining Research, RBC Capital Markets

Great. Thank you. Maybe one more question just on the update, again, Yanacocha capital estimate. Just wanted to confirm, does that include the spending prior to an investment decision, the $500 million that was outlined for 2022?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Rob, you might have to help me out with this one.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

No, it does.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

I'm trying to remember where we drew the line on that number.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

It does include the spend this year. Thank you.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah. Yep.

Joshua Wolfson
Director and Head of Global Mining Research, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. All right. Those are all my questions. Thank you very much.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Thanks, Josh.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Jalonen of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Michael Jalonen
Managing Director and North American Senior Precious Metals Research Analyst, Bank of America Securities

Oh, I guess close enough. Yeah. Hi, Tom, Rob, and Nancy. Thanks for the call. I was looking at slide 21 with Porcupine. Interesting chart there showing the indicative production profile. With the base and then the extended Porcupine, just wondering, does that mean Borden and Hoyle Pond are depleted by 2025, or am I reading this chart wrong? Thanks.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Thanks, Mike. Rob, did you want to pick that one up with Mike? Just check I'm still on the line. Are you still there, Rob?

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

I am indeed. Sorry, I was on mute. Tom, thanks for the question, Mike. Borden certainly does not run out by that time. You know, certainly the timing of Pamour is when Hollinger in particular is at the end of the life. We are starting to get into the main at Hoyle Pond where, you know, the exploration that we cover in the next couple of years is going to be important. Round about that timeframe, Mike, it really is going to be the Borden, Pamour, and some high grade from Hoyle Pond is where we're looking at. Of course, bringing on Pamour then allows us to really gear up and give us that time for quality exploration elsewhere on that highly prospective area.

Michael Jalonen
Managing Director and North American Senior Precious Metals Research Analyst, Bank of America Securities

Okay. Well, thanks and good luck.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

The next question comes from Tyler Langton of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Tyler J. Langton
VP and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just on your costs for 2022, obviously you mentioned it includes the five percent inflation. Is... I guess the question is, do you have a, I guess, a decent amount of certainty, you know, on those costs in the sense that you've locked them in, or should we just kind of expect the cost to sort of generally move with inflationary pressures?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Tyler, good morning. We can certainly point to where those costs are coming from. As I said, a half of it is labor, you know, another 30%, tools, consumables, another 15%, energy. We can see those cost trends coming, so we're building those cost trends into our guidance going forward. There is a link between the trends we're seeing and the guidance we're providing. What I would say is that doesn't mean we sit back on our heels.

We have our Full Potential program, and we are working bloody hard to control those costs and to manage those costs to be well below the increases that we're guiding to by leveraging all the things we've done for a long period of time. They're built in, we can see the trends, but we're not just saying, "Well, that's it, we're gonna accept it." Every one of our operations is expected to be driving to improve productivity and manage their cost to mitigate them.

Tyler J. Langton
VP and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, thanks.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Tom, if it-

Tyler J. Langton
VP and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Sorry.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Sorry, Tom.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Sorry.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

If I could just add to what you said, is that also, Tyler, in our projects, the likes of T2, we've now procured 80% of all our materials. The strategy that we adopted at Yanacocha, getting the fabrication of the critical items such as autoclaves, the grinding mills, and the flotation, that obviously limits our exposure to inflation in those big projects.

Tyler J. Langton
VP and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. I guess as a, you know, spot prices, say for, you know, sort of diesel and natural gas, you know, start to, you know, move lower, would that theoretically benefit you mean, or have you sort of, you know, sort of locked in, you know, purchases of, you know, energy or, you know, certain materials?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

I'm with you, Tyler. No, we're price takers, so we would benefit from that.

Tyler J. Langton
VP and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Yeah, that's what I was. Perfect.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah.

Tyler J. Langton
VP and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

You know, final question on the sort of longer-term production guidance of the 6.2 to 6.8. You know, are there any certain, you know, sort of assets or projects that would kinda get you to the higher end versus the lower end? Just trying to, you know, what, you know, or is it just sort of the operations as a whole? Just trying to get a sense if there's, you know, any specific items that kind of drive you to various ends of the range.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah, there's some bringing on Tanami Expansion 2 and Ahafo North, and a good run at commissioning both of those gives you upside as they come on through 2024. Penasquito's a deal mover for our portfolio. As we move into higher grade ore, we're stripping at the Penasquito. We're gonna move more to Chile Colorado Pit over the next couple of years. You get more of the other metals, rest of the gold. We swing back into the Penasquito Pit as we come into 2024. We've got upside opportunity if that goes well and the stripping campaign goes well. We've got a higher grade ore coming from Subika.

Again, if our stripping campaign in the Subika open pit goes well, you've got some upside potential there. There are stripping campaigns and projects that are delivering that higher production. Depending on how the stars line up, depending on how well projects commission and ramp up, and depending on how well those stripping campaigns go, there is, they're the sorts of things that'll give us upside on those numbers.

Tyler J. Langton
VP and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. Thanks so much.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Great. Thanks, man.

Operator

The next question comes from Anita Soni of CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead.

Anita Soni
Managing Director and Senior Precious Metals Research Analyst, CIBC World Markets

Hi. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I just wanted to ask, the guidance on attributable capital, just to be clear, does that not include Pueblo Viejo, correct?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Good morning, Anita. Nancy, do you want to talk about how we manage Pueblo Viejo in our guidance?

Nancy K. Buese
EVP and CFO, Newmont

Yeah. That's correct, Anita. That does not sit inside with our guidance because it's an equity investment and it's not part of. We put production in, but the capital costs are not included.

Anita Soni
Managing Director and Senior Precious Metals Research Analyst, CIBC World Markets

Okay. Secondly, I was just wondering, with the Cerro Negro district expansion phase one, I'm not sure if you addressed that in your comments, Rob, but could you just explain what exactly that is and how it will, I guess, increase production in 2024 and how much the capital associated with that is?

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

No problem. Tom, do you want me to take that?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Go for it, Rob.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Yep. Anita, essentially what the expansion is really doing is to really provide that pathway to Cerro Negro producing around about 350,000 ounces a year. That incorporates the Marianas District expansion and the Eastern District. The Marianas, as you're probably aware, has got two components to it. It's got the Norte Este and the Norte Este Beta, and then also the San Marcos ore body. We continued that portal in March 2021. The Eastern District, we're really looking at bringing on three deposits, the Bajo Negro, the Silica Cap, and the Gato Salvaje. That's where we're focused on in 2024, as you mentioned, to bring it on. We are looking at mining just under 3 million ounces of gold by opening that up.

By doing these two areas together, it allows us to have those synergies between shared fixed costs, our equipment, our contractors, etc . That in a nutshell is the expansion that we're currently focused on. I should have also added is that at the current time, we're also expanding the tailings dam, so that's ready for when that brings on at the appropriate time.

Anita Soni
Managing Director and Senior Precious Metals Research Analyst, CIBC World Markets

Okay. What was the total capital for the two? I guess two assets, two areas. Merian. I guess I was trying to understand Merian versus Cerro Negro, Bajo Negro and Silica Cap.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Yeah. We're still in the study phase there at the moment, Anita. I may have to be reminded about this, but certainly we're still locking down the total cost for this.

Anita Soni
Managing Director and Senior Precious Metals Research Analyst, CIBC World Markets

All right. Thank you. That's it for my question.

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Thanks, Anita.

Operator

The next question comes from David Haughton of Global Mining Research. Please go ahead.

David Haughton
Managing Director and Analyst, Global Mining Research

Good morning, Tom, Rob and Nancy. Thank you very much for the update. Just following on the Cerro Negro expansion. I presume here that when we're looking at the production profile, that that's more a function of better grades coming from the areas that you're opening up rather than an expansion of the plant. Is that the correct way to think about it?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yes, David, that is correct. If Anita's still on the line, I'd just be able to pull the number. We've got about $300 million over time included in our guidance for those Cerro Negro expansions, if you're still there, Anita. No plant expansion, David. This is all bringing ore from new mining areas into the existing plant.

David Haughton
Managing Director and Analyst, Global Mining Research

On a similar theme with Pamour, you're simply doing a pit layback to extend and fully utilize the infrastructure you've already got in place.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

That's correct. It's a dewatering of a pit that's full of water at the moment and then a layback and then feeding that all through the existing processing facility.

David Haughton
Managing Director and Analyst, Global Mining Research

I seem to recall from Goldcorp days that the pit layback was somewhat confined in its footprint 'cause there was infrastructure that could be taken out on a larger scenario. Is that correct?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah, I'll get Rob. He might get you to talk to that, to David. This is a little bit different from what they called the Dome Project. It's a smaller scope that doesn't have those constraints or that impact. Did you wanna talk to that, Rob?

Robert Atkinson
EVP and COO, Newmont

Yeah, that's correct, Tom. It really was. We obviously studied the Dome Project, and we certainly saw the most significant value. The simplest way was to develop the Pamour. As you mentioned, just a simple layback which can really focus on the productivity and really deliver quicker. That was the method that we've approached looking at simplicity, the highest value, and this is where it was determined.

David Haughton
Managing Director and Analyst, Global Mining Research

Okay. On the third of your projects, Yanacocha Sulfides, just to help us think about the scale of this thing, can you remind us of what your anticipated tonnage throughput would be, likely grades of the three elements that you're going to get, recoveries, unit costs? Have you got anything like that that you can help us think about modeling?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

We haven't provided that yet, David Haughton, but let us take that on notice and think about how we start to build up that story to help you start to model that. We certainly would typically give those sorts of details at full funding. Let us take that on notice how to think about that, given some of the decisions we've made around that project and the level of detail that we're going to have and the money we're investing. Let us take that and see what we can do. Typically that would come with a full funding decision.

David Haughton
Managing Director and Analyst, Global Mining Research

Any data would be appreciated to help us sort of get a proper idea about what you're seeing.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah.

David Haughton
Managing Director and Analyst, Global Mining Research

My final question, a very simple one. It's in relation to your-

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah.

David Haughton
Managing Director and Analyst, Global Mining Research

$300 million exploration budget. How should we think about that as a split between expense and capital?

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

I might throw that question to either Nancy or Daniel, just so I ensure that we answer that in the way you define those things. Nancy or Daniel, able to help David or something you could take that offline with David?

Nancy K. Buese
EVP and CFO, Newmont

We may wanna take that one offline. I think it's about 80% split, but we can follow up with you on that one.

David Haughton
Managing Director and Analyst, Global Mining Research

Okay. 80/20, capital versus expense. I presume that's-

Nancy K. Buese
EVP and CFO, Newmont

Yeah.

David Haughton
Managing Director and Analyst, Global Mining Research

What you mean then.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah. The trick there, David, is some of our mine development costs, which wouldn't be part of exploration to open up the drifts to do the drilling, would be paid for elsewhere. So it's a little bit tricky.

David Haughton
Managing Director and Analyst, Global Mining Research

Yeah. That level of answer is completely adequate for me. Thank you. Thank you very much for the conference call.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Thanks, David.

Operator

The next question comes from Adam Josephson of KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Adam Jesse Josephson
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Thanks very much, and good morning, everyone. Tom, with respect to your longer-term gold production guidance, so if you do 6 million ounces this year, in 2023, you're guiding to 6-6.6. Can you help me with how much of the implied growth is coming from the presumed non-recurrence of the COVID-related disruptions that you've experienced this year versus the expansion projects you have underway? I'm just asking 'cause you mentioned your outlook assumes operations continue without major COVID-related interruptions.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

We'll certainly have an impact through 2022 from COVID because, you know, mines like big mines like Panama or Cerro Negro just haven't been able to do the development work. So you'll see a delay of that. You'll start to see us start to ramp up as a consequence of that. If you look at our ramp up, it's really coming from the laybacks. The big mines move the dial, so the laybacks we're just completing at Boddington, so we're sitting on top of high grade now, so you're going to get Boddington with autonomous haulage and trucks delivering high grades of copper and gold. You'll see that flow through 2022, 2023.

You're going to see other metals coming out of Penasquito in 2023, and then back into gold in 2024. 2024, you're gonna see the benefit of the expansion at Tanami and Ahafo North flowing through. One of the big movements of ounces out of 2021, 2022, 2023 into 2024, 2025 is the impact of COVID on the Tanami expansion. You're seeing those ounces in the back end of that guidance range, and then they'll flow into 2026 and beyond. Does that-

Adam Jesse Josephson
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

I appreciate.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Give you the-

Adam Jesse Josephson
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yeah.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

The color you're looking for?

Adam Jesse Josephson
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yeah. No, yeah, sure. No, I appreciate that, Tom. Just one on cost. You talked about the Full Potential initiatives. Can you help me with-

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Mm-hmm.

Adam Jesse Josephson
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

You know, I see your gold CAS is going from $790 this year to $820 next year, and then down to $740-$840 in 2023. Can you help me with, absent those Full Potential, the company-specific programs you have-

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Yeah.

Adam Jesse Josephson
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

What would be happening to that projected gold CAS? I'm just trying to get a sense of what the underlying inflation is, and how much it's being tempered by your initiatives.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

We are in. I mean, the last year or two have been unusual. If I look back to what we were at a more normal time, we'll return to a more normal time as the world settles down from this pandemic. Typically, we have an expectation that as a minimum, our Full Potential projects are offsetting escalation of the order of around 2%. As every mine builds its business plan, they must have Full Potential projects that are resourced, that are detailed out, that are offsetting an escalation of around 2%. That, you know, in a normal circumstance, it's helping to mitigate escalation that you see each year as you move forward.

Adam Jesse Josephson
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Appreciate that. Thank you, Tom.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Great. Thanks, Adam.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tom Palmer for any closing remarks.

Thomas Ronald Palmer
President and CEO, Newmont

Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for making your time for the call today. I appreciate you staying on for quite a bit longer than we'd initially said. Wanted to take as many questions as we could. Thank you for your time. Thank you for your ongoing interest in Newmont. If I'm not speaking to you between now and the end of the year, I wish you and your families a safe and happy conclusion to the year, and hopefully some time off from work to spend with families before we start again and work together again in 2022. Thank you, everybody.

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