Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD)
NYSE: NOMD · Real-Time Price · USD
9.99
+0.70 (7.48%)
May 6, 2026, 3:12 PM EDT - Market open
← View all transcripts

2024 Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) Conference

Feb 22, 2024

Andrew Lazar
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Nomad Foods back to the CAGNY conference. After having successfully navigated unprecedented inflation in its core European markets and protecting its long-term structural margin integrity, the company spent much of last year getting back to supporting its brands with marketing and promotional actions, with the expectation that it could be prepared to enter 2024 in a more sustainable, volume-led way. And the company's announcement yesterday of its plans for 2024 would seem to sort of back up that, that thought process. And recent data does show that volume and market share are responding accordingly. So too, has Nomad maintained strong free cash flow, which has led to broader capital allocation with the announcement of a first-time dividend, as well as a hefty share repurchase authorization.

With us from Nomad Foods today to discuss all of this in more detail are CEO, Stéfan Descheemaeker, and CFO, Samy Zekhout, along with new Head of Investor Relations, Amit Sharma. Stéfan, over to you.

Stéfan Descheemaeker
CEO, Nomad Foods

Thank you very much, Andrew. Thanks to be back at CAGNY. It's always a pleasure to come here. It's only too short every time, but next time, you know, I promise I'll spend a bit more time. So obviously, I will spare you the disclaimer, and I will go right away to the presentation. So before I'm starting with the presentation today, I want to remind everybody of our mission, actually, as Nomad. So it's serving the world with better food. So you have heard from many of our colleagues in the U.S. over the last two or three days, you know, how important it is to understand, you know, how the consumer is moving. And it's moving, consumer is moving, actually. We are addressing, you know, the traditional, let's say, food choices.

It's about health concerns, sustainability, affordability, and all of these, these things. And so I can tell you, when I see this, I'm very confident that Nomad Foods is better positioned than most of our peers for the changing consumers. So with that, you know, what we want to do today is really to present things about around three themes. One is what we are. We are Europe's leading pure-play branded frozen food company with a portfolio of fantastic brands. We have the scale that is not matched by our competitors, and as a result, it also enables us to deliver an uninterrupted track record of top-tier financial results amongst our peers. We faced unprecedented macro challenges over the last two years, perhaps more than many companies here at the conference, but I can say that we delivered excellent results through this period, and we learned so much.

We have taken this opportunity to position ourselves for accelerated growth as we look ahead to 2024 and beyond. We are a cash flow machine, which, combined with the strength of our balance sheet, the flexibility we have, and our effective capital allocation return allocation, it positions us to deliver great shareholders' return. As simple as that. So let me start with the first piece, which is attractive segments, frozen food. It's and the way we convert, you know, this, this industry, this category into great, you know, obviously top-tier financial results. So we are one of the very few publicly traded food pure plays. Very few like us. We're leading the revitalization of the frozen food industry since our inception in 2015, and it's working. It's a big industry, EUR 57 billion.

It's still smaller than North America, but very importantly, it's, it has grown since 2021 at a CAGR of 9.5%, which is faster than food overall, faster than perishable, faster than FMCG, and largely in line with ambient. When you think about it, it's, it's not difficult to understand why, because it's very much in line with what you see on the, on the, let's say, on the, the lower level of the, of the slide, which is convenience, taste, nutrition, affordability, sustainability, everything that is important today for the, for the consumers. So the second piece is, as we said, is the first piece is it's a great, it's a great industry. Second is we are one of the largest branded frozen food companies.

So these are the, you know, the numbers in Europe, as you can see, 3.9 retail sales. And we've done this through organic growth and also very selected M&A, a very selected M&A program, very focused around frozen foods. So with that, you know, this is what we are today. So we are the largest savory frozen food portfolio in Europe. We have one of the largest frozen food footprint in Europe, again. 8,000 employees, 18 plants, we generated more than EUR 3 billion of sales last year, more than EUR 530 million of Adjusted EBITDA. And that makes us by far the largest frozen food company in Europe, with, and that's very important as well, number one shares in each of our top 15 markets, and we believe so much in market share.

Brands, again, we are a relatively young organization, started in 2015. However, at the same time, we have these brands. You know some, you don't know all the others. Birds Eye, obviously, for U.K., Ireland. Iglo for basically Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, and some others, Findus, North, South. Ledo is a great brand in Serbia and Croatia. Goodfella's in the U.K.. So we have all these great brands, all focused on frozen foods. And it's basically high margin, and it's fast-growing in terms of brands. It's which is really the foundation of our business. Acquisitions, again, very focused when you think about it. So we've been through four to five acquisitions, starting with Findus, then two brand, two acquisitions in the U.K. in 2018, Goodfella's, and Aunt Bessie's. Goodfella's is pizza.

The other one is very specific to the U.K., which is Yorkshire pudding. Findus, Switzerland, that was the remnants of what Nestlé had, and then acquisition of frozen food and ice cream business in the Adriatics, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia. So again, very focused, not only in terms of acquisitions, but also in terms of integration. We're quite proud of what we have been doing, which is not only acquisition. Acquisition is easy to some extent. Integrating the business the right way is very different, and that's why we're also so focused. So overall, when you see all these years, we've invested around EUR 1.2 billion in acquisitions over the last five years, and added over EUR 1 billion of sales since our launch. That's a slide I like. I like it, quite frankly.

We started in 2015, and when you see our results, well, we've grown revenues by around 60%, Adjusted EBITDA by 65%, and EPS by more than 90%. When you express that in terms of CAGR, 7%, 7%, close to 10%, and while absorbing at the same time EUR 0.17 of interest between 2023 and 2024. So at the same time, we are also very good at converting this growth. Growth is fine. Uninterrupted growth is even better. But converting this into cash flow is obviously the ultimate. And so we have converted, you know, more than 100% of, in, in terms of cash flow. And so with that, yes, I think it's not arrogant to say that we are in the top quartile of financial performance among peers, but that's the past.

More importantly, we believe these are the right foundations to continue to deliver attractive results in the future. From the past to 2024, which is today. That's what you've seen from yesterday. We expect organic net revenue growth of 3%-5.4%, very importantly, including positive volume growth. And I understand that, you know, not all of our peers are coming with that kind of statement. Adjusted EBITDA growth of 4%-6%, EPS of EUR 1.75-EUR 1.80, which is 9%-12% growth. We will obviously provide you more information. That's actually in a week, on February the 29th. But again, let me reiterate, we expect to return to positive volumes and share growth in 2024.

Moving from the past to today, 2024, to long term, which is even more important. We think we have what it takes to deliver these results, which is 3%-4% organic revenue growth, 5%-7% EBITDA growth, 7%-9% EPS growth, with 90%-95% cash conversion. So at or nearly the high end of the long-term outlook for most of our U.S. peers. At the same time, we think we can even amplify this attractive organic growth with the right effective capital allocation. M&A is obviously not far away. We decided for two years to stop it. Now we're going to resume it, and obviously, when the right opportunity is coming, again, focused, we're going to take it. Second takeaway is growth acceleration in 2024. How are we going to do this?

So again, let me start with the last two, three years. It's been tough and, well, being a European company, you know, we have more than our fair share of these headwinds. Some people didn't believe that we could make it work, but we learned so much. And some, like someone said, you know, "You never let a good crisis go to waste." And we learned, we learned, we learned from this, from this, from this crisis, and obviously, we have equipped ourselves for accelerated growth for 2024 and 2025, and then beyond. And so I'll tell you exactly how we're doing this. The first piece is how we see, obviously, the volumes and the, let's say, in terms of volume growth, in terms of, let's say, inflection and the volume share.

So as we said, the key priority for us, one of the key priorities, is to deliver positive volume growth in 2024. So we can see we are on our way to achieve this later this year. So we're right from an impressive -16% to something which is getting close to 0%. And so it's really a combination of, number one, the category is doing well. Second, obviously, we're lapping, you know, obviously, like a year ago, pricing, but also we begin to benefit from our growth initiatives. We started very much, very clearly in Q3, end of Q3, Q4 in 2023. We really raised the game in terms of, A&P. We did a lot of other things in terms of promo, in terms of revenue growth management.

So we took a very integrated approach for all our categories, of most of our categories, and we're starting to see the results. So that's what we do. The way we do it, obviously, is also not very different from what we did and what was really part of the success of this organization, which is, again, focus. You heard me saying, using the word focus very much. But we, since 2015, so those who know us, you know, we, we focused on Must-Win Battles. Must-Win Battles are, for us, in all our countries in Europe, are the markets and the categories where we have, obviously, large share, let's say, a lot of sales, but at the same time, more importantly, growth profile and also, let's say, gross margin.

By definition of strategy, the way you have to allocate your resources, these must-win battles are receiving the biggest part of our growth investment. What we can see right now, already now, is we see, you know. We give you some examples. We see a positive inflection with those must-win battles that have already been through the flywheel. So it's, again, it's very clear choice, long-term health, growth potential for brands. We chose, like other people, to preserve our margin structure. Over the last two years, we took a lot of pricing to offset the record of the high inflation. We also, obviously, we know that at the same time, you know, we lost market share and volume. We knew that would happen, but again, with that, you know, we have no regret.

We knew what it was the right thing to do, to be able, again, at the right time, to reinvest, which is exactly what we're doing right now. So what we're going to do in 2024 and beyond is really four things. One is grow the core, and I'll define a bit further, you know, what grow the core is. Focusing on consumer-centric innovation, something that we somehow, for the last two years, was a bit on the back burner, and then investing growth for capability because we had to invest a lot to adapt ourselves to the new situation. And then the way we financed ourselves for, you know, obviously, is pricing. Now, we'll have a word on this as well. So again, grow the core, grow the Must-Win Battles. That's one thing.

Second thing is, and that's new for us, is new growth platforms. What does that mean? It means that basically we have an amazing breadth of product, brands, that can be used from one country to another. That's something that nobody has in the frozen food industry in Europe. And so it's easier for us to really lift and shift and move to another country at a lower risk. And that's really something that we're starting to institutionalize within, within Nomad. We're also investing more behind the capabilities. RGM, Revenue Growth Management, is a big thing, so we have, you know, really strong team right now at the center level, but also in the region, the clusters, what we call, and it's making a difference.

And obviously, we're also investing more and more in, in terms of A&P, starting in 2023, but definitely we're not going to stop, quite the contrary, in 2024. And to, to do this, we're really upping the game in terms of productivity agenda, in terms of, supply chain, and, we can see that we're making real difference right now. So that's all these things, obviously, as you can see, are centered around growth. So how to, let's say, fuel the investment, how to invest it, and then where we're going to invest. So let me start with the core. So, how we're doing this? So when we started, back in 2016, basically what we came to the conclusion with is we have, let's say 2/3 of our sales were represented by what we call then the must-win battles.

But the 2/3 of the sales represented more than 2/3 of the gross profit. And so as a result, we decided to invest much more than 2/3 behind these must-win battles. Unsurprisingly, that was the whole point, these must-win battles have grown to the point that today they represent 90% of our sales. Therefore, it's time again to refocus, and so that's exactly what we're doing. We're refocusing behind the best and the biggest, let's say, must-win battles, not just on sales, but also obviously profitable sales. So in this process, we have de-emphasized nearly 25% of the previous must-win battles and repositioned the rest with obviously more A&P. Which again, as you know, overall, we're investing more, but even further behind these categories.

So for example, we have around 80 must-win battles within the group. For information, the largest 20 represent around 50% of our sales and obviously more than 50% of our profit. So they will receive, obviously, a biggest part, be the biggest part of the whole thing. An example is Italy. We have a big must-win battle there, which is fish. So we've been through a real 360, what we need, we need to do to really ramp up, you know, innovation, to redeliver to how to redeliver, you know, let's say, growth behind the category. So we've done that, you know, in the last quarter of 2023, and still now, obviously, it's a big launch. So we're coming with an innovation, with informal eat occasion. We're coming with a really well-thought promotion activation.

We're coming with a new advertising campaign with the Captain Findus, and we're also working with Playmobil, for example, as an in-store partnership. So with that, in two months, and that's very, let's say, reassuring for us, we've seen that the market share in terms of volume share has increased by 190 basis points just in two months, last two months of 2023. So that's an example of the things we're doing with our must-win battles, which is not only focusing on A&P or focusing on price or promotion or innovation, but really to take, I mean, we want to take, you know, a global approach. Second thing, as I said, it, which is a bit new for us, is really cross, what we call cross-pollination, to expand into new markets and categories. It's a new word for me.

What we've seen is, especially in a country like the U.K., when you have a, let's say, a very high number of must-win battles, we have, obviously, which makes sense, very high exposure with the consumers. In some of the countries, we don't have that same breadth, and so we see that obviously the market share is lower, but then there is some sort of, let's say, wasted opportunity. At the same time, as I said, we have an amazing, let's say, range of products that are working very well in some countries and that are not existent in others. So that's the concept of tweaking, adapting sometimes, and then doing a lift and shift, which is easy to do.

It is innovation to some extent, but it's common sense and innovation at a low risk. Good example is something we did, you know, something like five years ago. We started with fish and chips in the U.K. with very little money, by the way. The concept worked extremely well, and we moved from EUR 5 million to EUR 14 million today. So we're starting now the fish and chip concept in countries like Switzerland or like in the Adriatics. And there are many other opportunities. That's something we're really institutionalizing within the group. Consumer-centric innovation. For years, our innovation were representing around 5% of our sales. Then it took a bit of a dip during the cost of living crisis, let's say 2021, no, 2022, 2023.

As a result, like many other people, by the way, innovation took a bit of a dip. Definitely, we think that's the biggest lever for the future for us. We never ever expressed it that way, but definitely it's something that we want to make bigger. We're going to re-refocus a lot of resources behind it. Our ambition in this year is to go back to 5% and beyond in the coming years. Example of innovation. One is, for example, so what we're doing is, as you have a series of examples here, is we're refocusing on the consumer more than before, I would say. And definitely, the idea is to come with premiumization, innovation versus private label, and obviously something that you can then expand from one country to another.

For example, Iglo brand Coated Fish Fillet to be launched in a few days in Germany. What it is is quite simple. So normally you have to go and first, let's say, to a frying step at the industrial level before going to the consumer. And so what we've been able to do now is to avoid that step through a spraying process. And by doing so, we're doing a lot of things. One is 30% less fat, 30% less expensive from that standpoint. Also, it preserves the taste, you know, of the herbs that we're using, which allows us then to go to other potentialities, you know, we have with the concept, and it's more healthy.

So it's win-win from all the angles we can imagine. So more to come, obviously, in the coming months. Second is, and you may remember, for those that were here last year, with the business we acquired in the Adriatics, with, we acquired an ice cream business. We had a bit of soul-searching exercise first. Was it, you know, serving the world with, with better food? That's, I think, actually, you know, we, we also love very much, you know, the, the, the margin from it, I must admit. And, we have this, ice cream business. King is a great brand, has, has won, you know, a lot of awards. And, this year, they're coming with a, with a sensational big breakthrough in the Eat at Home premium, which is really premium, which is King Ice Cream Cup. It's a unique technology.

What it allows us to do is to really create layers of different ingredients, the way that nobody has been able to do right now, which is very much focused on the consumer. So it's a great example, again, starting right now in the spring, and we know that it's going to be a great success. Impactful advertising and marketing. Again, as we said, you know, we want to, we are investing more. So double-digit increase in 2023 versus 2022, and more than that in 2024. So we want to regain our top line momentum. A&P is a big part of that, not the only part, but it's a significant part. Same time, interesting to see that 75% of our A&P budget is for consumer facing, so we're increasing the numbers.

So all these things are moving in the right direction. More money, more efficient money, and also more focus behind what it matters. On top, obviously, more, obviously, data driven. We are, we are really upping the game in terms of data so that we can, we can obviously adapt ourselves. And again, when you're in Europe, the game part can be very different from countries like Sweden or you're going to Bosnia. So you really have to be nimble and understand the differences. The, let's say, the developmental level is not the same. You're talking about digital. In some countries, it's obviously more than 50%, in some others, it's only 10%. If you just apply just the same, the same recipe, it's going to be a disaster, and I think we, we're doing that reasonably well or more than reasonably well.

Obviously, with the number, the data we have on top, we're going to become better and better. So again, thinking about ROI, we know that again, by investing in systems, we talk about Phoenix, you know, and the program we're putting together, which is to improve the quality of our data and obviously how to use them. Definitely, we know that we're going to improve. We increase not only the quantity, but the quality of our media. Definitely focused on digital. Overall, whatever the region is, overall, we're increasing the digital by 40% in 2024, which makes a lot of sense. We're also increasing, you know, our presence in the retail media channels to support our in-store activation.

So we have also some great examples of the kind of things we're going to do. For example, also in a summer activation, let's say, program for frozen vegetable. It was a big hit last year. It's going to be a big hit again. It's around barbecue. We activate the program with strong in-store activation campaign, active advertisements, consumer competition, a lot of things. Again, to just demonstrate, you know, the how seriously we take this flywheel process that we have put together. And it's going to work. It works in some countries last year. It was considered a pilot, and this year, obviously, we're going to extend it to the other countries because we believe that, you know, it doesn't have any borders.

So with that, you know, here's a video of one of our latest campaigns to highlight one of our campaigns. It's called Master Brand. What it's really specific, it's a global unified platform, which is not easy when you're dealing with so many countries, but at the same time, we have the flexibility to adapt to any must-win battles there is in each and every country when we think it's worth advertising. So with that, you know, let me go to the advertising. And that's a great segue for Samy.

Samy Zekhout
CFO, Nomad Foods

Thank you, Stéfan, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm delighted to be with you today, and I'm gonna take you through the, let's say, the more numerical part and complementary part to what Stéfan has given you. So I'm gonna be focusing on that element relating to the enhancing of the shareholder return and through a variety of intervention we are doing. I mean, and you've seen, let's say, a number of intervention we've been making, the return back to a winning algorithm. And watching Stéfan's presentation, I really hope that you are as excited, as delighted as I am, I mean, to see the growth prospect for Nomad. And we are going to be talking to you about the journey that we are undertaking and how Nomad is positioned to realize these attractive growth prospects.

I'm going to briefly discuss the 2023 results, our renewed focus on organic growth and opportunities to execute on the M&A agenda, and continued focus on capital allocation through dividends and buybacks to drive attractive shareholder returns. So relating to the 2023 year, we had another year of very good performance, as you see. We have completed another year, and we expect to end the 2023 year with revenue in line with our previous guidance of mid-single-digit organic growth. While full-year adjusted EPS, adjusted cash flow and adjusted cash flow conversion are expected to be above our previous guidance. If you recall, it was EUR 1.57-EUR 1.60 on EPS, EUR 250 million in cash, and 90%-95% of free cash flow productivity.

Our full-year Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be modestly above current consensus estimates. This highlights the very good performance we just completed. I mean, we set the bar quite high, started progressively in the year, making some tough calls as we move forward. This highlights—these results highlight the resiliency of our business model and our disciplined approach in navigating in a challenging environment for investing in sustained long-term growth potential while protecting our growth, our gross margin and our margins. Now let me talk about the relative performance of our business versus our peer group. 2023 actually continued our positive trends over the last several years. In fact, over the past five years, our net sales have increased 7%, our Adjusted EBITDA 7%, and our adjusted EPS at over 6%, even as we absorbed nearly EUR 0.17 of incremental interest costs.

We have generated strong cash flow during the period, during this period, at nearly 100% conversion rate, all comfortably ahead of our peer group during the period. Our strong top-tier performance is a testament of our strong and resilient business model, as we talked earlier, where we are the market leader in attractive category with iconic brands, a relentless focus on outstanding execution and a highly accretive capital allocation strategy. We are building on this foundation to position us to continuing delivering attractive returns, top and bottom line growth ahead of our peers for the years to come. Now, let's talk guidance. Stéfan has alluded to that point, I mean, a bit earlier, and we are very proud, I mean, of the outstanding growth that we have completed over the last five years, and we want to continue on this trajectory very clearly.

As much came, it came against a very challenging macro backdrop, and we expected to deliver another strong year ahead of us. For 2024, we expect net organic revenue growth of 3%-4%, EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA growth of 4%-6%, even as we increase our A&P support across our biggest must-win battle, as we talked earlier. And we expect adjusted EPS of EUR 1.75-EUR 1.80, corresponding to a growth of 9%-12%, and cash flow conversion still in the range of 90%-95%. We are well positioned to continue a sequential improvement in our volume and share trend. We started already in the second half of 2023, and this is going to continue in the year of 2024. We expect to deliver organic volume and market share expansion for the full-year.

I know there are some questions about that, and we'll be able to answer some of your questions, but very clearly and encouragingly, we've seen the trend coming up as we got into the last quarter of the year and as we get into this year. We will provide more detail on that, indeed, I mean, during the 2024 guidance on our fourth quarter earnings next week on the 29th. Let me comment a bit on the flywheel. We've talked about the flywheel for quite a while. The big change that we have been making now is the fact that this is a much more integrated flywheel with a different part coming in sync as we look forward. So the flywheel is at the center of our strategy to generate strong, let's say, shareholder return overall.

Let me touch on the four stages of our growth in our flywheel. While we have been a very efficient operator in the past, we are increasing our focus on driving greater efficiencies and productivity through our plants, logistics, and the entire supply chain. We are investing in data, in technology, in capabilities to simplify our operation to unlock additional cost savings. Higher productivity will help us fuel investment in growth opportunities while protecting our margin. We're committed to raising our A&P spending to leverage our strong brands, and at the same time, we are upgrading our revenue growth management toolkit and refocusing on innovation to deliver sustained, attractive organic growth. Brick by brick, we are building on our already strong platform to deliver more attractive organic growth.

Notwithstanding the challenging environment outlined by many of our peers over the last few days, we remain confident of returning to positive volume and share growth in the second half of 2024 as we begin to benefit from many of these investments, and we've seen already some of these signs at the end of last year and getting into the beginning of this year. Finally, we are proud of our ability to preserve our margin through a tough environment. Volume-led top line growth should lead to favorable operating leverage to scale, to support our margin structure to deliver growth ahead of our top line. Our uninterrupted track record gives us confidence that we can further amplify attractive organic growth through high ROI capital allocation, including accretive acquisition and cash return to shareholder through opportunistic buyback and a newly instituted quarterly dividend.

Stéfan touched on the growth aspect of the flywheel. Let me take a few minutes to highlight our productivity agenda and our accretive capital allocation. We have been a lean operator with an efficient supply chain in the past, and we continue to be. As we accelerate our investments in our growth capabilities, Stéfan has mentioned effective investment we're making in the Project Phoenix, which is our data analytics and modeling capabilities to standardize, simplify our processes. That is going to serve all of the areas of our businesses. We focus on driving continued productivity and efficiency initiatives across the enterprise. Building on existing capability, we are strengthening a strong pipeline of savings that spans across our entire business, enabled by the new shared service I've just mentioned. For instance, let me take an example.

We are simplifying our supply chain and instituting uniform KPIs and benchmarks across our plant footprints to enhance operations and throughput and reduce costs. We are now able to compare each and every plant with the same level of requirements and standardization across the plants. That will enable us to do cross-fertilization and cross-learning across the different manufacturing sites, and that enables us to always strive for the better and retaking learnings from one site to another. We are better leveraging our scale as Europe's largest frozen food company to drive down procurement and logistics costs. Our strong productivity and expanded cost-saving program will help fuel our investments, as well as position us to deliver EBITDA growth ahead of our top line in 2024 and for the years to come. Let me talk about capital allocation and the investments we've been making.

Stéfan has mentioned the point that we've been a cash machine, and we intend to be. We have delivered strong free cash flow generation, and it has been a defining characteristic of our company, and our ability to sustain strong cash flow conversion has been at the heart of it, even as we invest behind growth. And it's been a key enabler of our success. We have generated EUR 1.3 billion of free cash flow over the last five years, and this gives us actually the balance sheet flexibility to optimize capital allocation and maximize shareholder returns. As we have done consistently, we view our capital allocation decision through rigorous ROI lens. We have three key priorities. The first one is cash return to shareholders.

We are proud to institute a quarterly dividend and remain committed to be opportunistic buyer of our shares, with EUR 1 billion in buybacks over the last five years. Second element is M&A. We have a proven track record of accretive, value-generating acquisition, underpinned by best-in-class integration expertise. We have been ahead of all of our economics, target economics, of all of the M&A deals we've made. We have a very clearly stated strategy, and we clearly leverage all of the synergy we have in the portfolio to maximize the return that we make on these M&A interventions. The last leg, and not the least, is invest in our business. To invest in CapEx and other capabilities to position us for stronger organic growth in our assets, in our physical assets, and in the rest of the capabilities we have across the organization.

We have no debt maturity until 2028 and remain committed to maintaining our net lever-leverage, net debt leverage in the range of 2.5-3.5 range. We will pay out our first quarterly cash dividend in just a few days. That's great news. It's an important milestone for us indeed. It reflects our conviction in the resilience of our business and our confidence in our long-term growth and our ability to generate strong, consistent cash flows. The initiation of a dividend and a very competitive dividend yield relative to our peers highlights our commitment to provide consistent, compelling value to our shareholders. And at the same time, the current dividend imply only 35% payout ratio, well below our peers, which signals that we will continue to have the flexibility and optionality to execute on the accretive capital deployment that I just mentioned.

Let me wrap up by highlighting that we have delivered industry-leading top and bottom line growth since our inception. As we look ahead, we expect to deliver 3%-5% organic sales growth, leading to 5%-7% EBITDA growth and 7%-9% EPS growth. That's the algorithm that we have deployed in the past, and we continue to deploy in an even stronger way as we look forward. We expect to convert 90%-95% of net income into free cash flow to support our quarterly dividend and pursue other high ROI capital allocation. And yet, our valuation discount to our U.S. peer has increased to record high levels, as you see on the bottom part of the slide, which I believe positions us very well to deliver strong shareholder return for years to come. With that, let me hand it over to Stéfan for closing comments.

Stéfan Descheemaeker
CEO, Nomad Foods

Thank you, Samy. As you can imagine, I love the upper side of the slide. A bit less, the lower side, I must admit, but you know, everything at a time. Objective is to deliver, keep delivering, delivering again. With that, you know, we've dealt with more than our fair share of both macro challenges over the last two to three years, between the remnants of mega Brexit, Ukraine, Russia war, COVID, unprecedented shocks to our supplies, as you know, record-high inflation, Forex, everything at the same time. At the same time, we have delivered a top-tier financial performance over the last five to eight years. But that's the past, and I'm even more excited and confident for the future, because this is a strong foundation.

As we mentioned, we also have what it takes to keep delivering the same way. So today, I think what I would like to do is that you keep in mind three key things. One is, we are a resilient company with a portfolio of great brands, leading market share in attractive categories, frozen food and ice cream, and an uninterrupted, uninterrupted track record of consistent, top-tier financial performance, uninterrupted. Second, we're building for the long term, and after tough years, tough macroeconomic environment, we're ready to deliver accelerated organic growth in 2024 and beyond, volume-led. And we are maniacally focused on shareholder value creation. We have the strong cash flows and balance sheet to not only support an attractive organic growth, but also amplify with a proven track record of successive M&A. Mind being focused.

More than anything, I just want to reiterate that we believe that Nomad Foods is a compelling investment opportunity, and I'm leaving you with that slide from Samy. Thank you very much. Andrew?

Andrew Lazar
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Thanks very much. Stéfan, you're one of the few food companies that we've heard from here or lately, that's committing to positive volume growth or a return to positive volume growth in 2024. I think you also mentioned that you would expect the, that to turn positive in the second half of the year. I know you'll get into more of this probably in detail next week, but I guess what gives you the, that level of confidence and visibility to, to commit to positive volume growth through the full-year, even though it's going to be, the growth will come from a little bit more of a back half weighted perspective? Thank you.

Stéfan Descheemaeker
CEO, Nomad Foods

Well, it's starting, which is not a surprise, Andrew. It's starting with the quality of the category. You've seen, you know, it's growing nicely. It's a very resilient category. It's in terms of affordability, in terms of sustainability, in terms of health, and people are recognizing this, and I think we need more and more to leverage this. At the same time, we started already in 2023, we're launching again, we're back on track with the A&P, probably ahead of many people, and we keep it that way. On top of that, we also obviously, we're using the full flywheel. The example of Italy is a great example of how fast, once you are disciplined with the full 360 approach, how you can do this.

And we're going to do this, you know, must-win battle after must-win battle. So that's the bulk of the reason why we think, you know, we're going that way. On top of, as you've seen in the direction of what we're already taking, you know, between, let's say, the beginning of 2023 and where we're, how we're ending the year. Anything else, Samy?

Samy Zekhout
CFO, Nomad Foods

I think that the element that is really, that's giving us the confidence is first and foremost, it works. We see that already, you know, and we will talk more later when we really get into the results. Month by month, we see a sequential improvement there. The second point, I think I just wanted to highlight on to Stéfan's point is, the flywheel, we've done it in the past, but we've done it sequentially or separately. We focused on A&P, we focused on sales, we focused on innovation. Now we're integrating the different parts, I mean, together. We are making appropriate intervention from a revenue growth management. We are upping the A&P significantly. We've already started that in the second half of the year. At the same time, we're driving efficiencies and we're investing back in retail and all of that at the same time.

So that coordinated approach is giving us much more horsepower. Let's face the point that the fact that we have been increasing prices significantly in the past to recover inflation, and now that we have the right cost structure, we're really able to fuel all of the different vectors to get us there. As I said, I think that's something we really looked at very, very carefully, and we need that growth, and that growth is supported by evidence already in OND, and that is starting to spill over in the beginning of this year as well.

Stéfan Descheemaeker
CEO, Nomad Foods

Rob?

Rob Dickerson
Managing Director and Consumer Staples Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you. Rob Dickerson, Jefferies. You know, this slide here, just in terms of the guidance, long-term attractive organic growth potential, 3%-4%. I know for some time, right, the guidance was always low single-digit. You know, when you speak to the flywheel now, you know, when you think of the 3%-4% relative to, you know, what you used to guide to, would you say there, there are elements of, let's say, what you've learned right, over the past few years, and then what you're implementing with respect to a more integrated approach, which has gave you confidence to 3%-4% relative to maybe being a bit more careful in saying maybe it's low single-digit or 2%-3%? Like, why 3%-4%?

Samy Zekhout
CFO, Nomad Foods

I can start, I mean, Stéfan, please comment. I think the big change, I think, Rob, is the fact that if you look back in our history, we had a pretty good sales performance, but a fair amount has come through pricing with volume marginally down. That has been more or less the beginning. We have had the volume growth here back in COVID days, and since then, we are actually very either flat or slightly declining. The effort we are putting in place right now is we clearly are focusing more than ever on the consumer. We clearly need to regain some of the consumer that clearly have experienced either other brand or other variants, type of product, and gain more through more moments, more product, more category, more winning product.

And so that appeal on volume is effectively going to be a new contributor that is giving us more confidence on the fact that after those two years of volume decline, we now have evidence that by putting the effort we are putting, let's say the situation has substantially increased our A&P in the second half of the year, which has enabled us to test the robustness of can we get this volume extra? And as we get into this quarter, we're seeing the continuation of that, and effectively, we're committing on to this turnaround in volume, in positive volume as we get into the year because of the focus on the consumer. And we are doing that with a mindset of profitable volume growth, if you want.

So the big change in the past was that those 2%-3% that you may have seen was primarily probably 3%-4% in pricing and maybe a -1% in volume. And now it's a more balanced element that we see over there with a stronger focus on volume growth, enhanced by appropriate, if you want, net sales per kilo improvement through RGM, through new launches, and through pricing whenever necessary.

Andrew Lazar
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

... Okay, we've got time for one more in here, if there is. Just one last. All right, yeah, right up here, Steve.

Steve Powers
Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Household, Personal Care, Beverages, and Food, Deutsche Bank

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank. So this whole presentation seems like a return to welcome normalcy, which is great. I guess pick up on this. From an M&A perspective, as you now lean back into M&A, which seems-

Stéfan Descheemaeker
CEO, Nomad Foods

Yeah.

Steve Powers
Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Household, Personal Care, Beverages, and Food, Deutsche Bank

Like, part of your interest, is there anything different in your approach or your prioritization as you go forward from here versus what, what you were focused on before?

Stéfan Descheemaeker
CEO, Nomad Foods

The answer is no. Simple as that, you know. We think what we're developing, you know, is by being focused behind frozen food. Well, everybody knows in Europe that, you know, if they want to sell their, their frozen food business, especially in brand, they have to come to us. So that's the first piece. So we don't have that many competitors. So in terms of price, I think it will have an impact compared to the private equity and all these guys, because, well, let's say, you don't have that many people like us. The second piece is learning through all the acquisitions, and we're becoming better and better.

I can tell you the latest acquisition, you know, in the Adriatics, we put a lot of effort, you know, in terms of we had an integration team for some more than one year, fully dedicated to the whole thing. We've learned so much. And so not only, you know, we think we are the only one or almost the only one now able to do these deals. Second, we also know how to obviously reduce the multiple eventually paid by buying more synergies. And synergies can be cost synergies, usual one that's, you know, you don't need to be a genius to do this.

But cost, but let's say, revenue synergies, and the other way around, by the way, because sometimes you're also learning from these guys, and I think we have the humility to not only to impose our model, but, oh my God, these guys are very smart. So we—it's something that we should, we should take on board for the rest of Nomad. I think that we have inherently within Nomad, we have this ability to not only to have the ambition, but also to have the humility to understand from the others what we can do. And it works extremely well in M&A.

Andrew Lazar
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Perfect. With that, please join us next door in the breakout. Thank you again for Nomad for being here.

Powered by