Greetings, and welcome to Nomad Foods fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Seamus Murphy, Group Finance Director. Thank you. You may begin.
Hello, and welcome to the Nomad Foods fourth quarter 2021 earnings call. I'm Seamus Murphy, Group Finance Director, and I'm joined on the call by our CEO, Stéfan Descheemaeker, and our CFO, Samy Zekhout. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer on slide 2 of our presentation. This conference call may include forward-looking statements that are based on our view of the company's prospects, expectations, and intentions at this time. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties which are disclosed in our press release, our filings with the SEC, and this slide in our investor presentation, which includes cautionary language. We will also discuss non-IFRS financial measures during the call today. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with our IFRS results.
Users can find the IFRS to non-IFRS reconciliations within our earnings release and in the appendices at the end of the slide presentation available on our website. Please note that certain financial information within this presentation represent adjusted figures for 2020 and 2021. All adjusted figures have been adjusted for exceptional items, acquisition-related share-based payments and related expenses, as well as non-cash FX gains or losses. Unless otherwise noted, all comments from here on will refer to those adjusted numbers. With that, I will hand over to Stéfan.
Thank you, Seamus, and thank you all for joining us on the call today. We're pleased to report our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2021, in line with the high end of our prior guidance range and marking a fifth consecutive year of growth on revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS. This is a great achievement for the team, overcoming a series of macro challenges throughout the year and reinforcing the resilience of our business model and the strength of our brands. In the face of a volatile market backdrop, we prioritized our attention to areas of the business where we could have the most control. Specifically, we sharpened our consumer proposition while strengthening our supply chain through process improvement and targeted investments. We also took the opportunity to materially lower our cost of capital through a successful debt refinancing.
This was concurrent with the acquisition and integration of two significant acquisitions, which continued the development of our brands portfolio and expanded our European footprint to the high-growth, Adriatic region. With that, I'd like to recap our 2021 key financial metrics, beginning with reported revenues of EUR 2.6 billion, which increased by 3.6% compared to 2020 and 6% on a 2-year CAGR basis. Full-year organic revenues were in line with our guidance and declined 2.1% as we compare against strong 2020 results and navigated the volatile market through 2021. Importantly, it's worth noting on the 2-year CAGR basis, organic revenues increased 3.2% as we consolidated our consumer wins from 2020.
We delivered a robust adjusted gross margin of 28.9%, which was 140 basis points lower year-on-year, reflecting the impact of acquisitions as well as raw material and utilities inflation through the second half of the year and the normalizing of promotion activity. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 487 million represents 4% growth compared to last year and a 6% CAGR compared to 2019 on a two-year basis. Finally, adjusted EPS was EUR 1.55 per share, representing 15% growth versus last year and a two-year CAGR of 12%. This performance, which included a fourth quarter seasonal loss from Fortenova's frozen food business of approximately four cents, is in line with the top end of our full-year guidance.
After an exceptionally strong year for frozen food demand in 2020, we saw greater volatility in 2021 as Europe reopened and consumer demand began to normalize, in some cases faster than in other parts of the world. However, while the European frozen food category did decline modestly during 2021, we believe our continuing solid performance is evidence of the longer-term shift of consumers' eating occasions to their homes and the greater share of frozen food within that consumption. At the same time, we continue to invest in our brands as we optimize our OMP strategy to maximize impact with our consumers and develop a growth engine in Green Cuisine. Specifically, on Green Cuisine, we are pleased with our continued growth in the meat alternative segment, which has seen that business grow by 31% during 2021.
This growth is driven by product and technology innovations with the launch of chicken-less burgers and grills, as well as fishless Fingers. We continue to expect this segment to be a driver of dynamic growth in the years ahead. I am proud of how our supply chain has adapted to a radically different environment since 2019, navigating exceptional growth in demand in 2020 and ratcheting inflation pressure since the first half of 2021. Focusing on continuity of supply, we have right-fitted process to optimize our manufacturing and logistic network while undertaking several capital projects to ensure excellent service levels despite the volatile macro. Even in this environment, our strong business model delivered free cash flow of EUR 232 million for the year after high capital investments in capacity expansion and cost reduction projects.
This was driven by our solid EBITDA performance and disciplined working capital management. Within this number, we increased our capital investment by EUR 20 million to EUR 79 million, or 3% of revenue, as we invest in capacity expansion and cost reduction projects. We expect our underlying free cash flow to grow as we continue to expand our business and our conversion returns to its long-term 90%-100% average. Our strong operational performance in 2021 was augmented with a number of capital allocation actions. We successfully completed 2 acquisitions during the year with a total announced purchase price of EUR 725 million. Findus Switzerland, which we acquired at the start of the year for EUR 110 million, completed our consolidation of the Findus brand in Europe.
Our integration program is largely complete and the business is performing well. In late September, we completed the acquisition of Fortenova's frozen food business, which expanded our geographic footprint into several new markets in Central and Eastern Europe through the leading brands, Ledo and Frikom. We have now owned the business for nearly five months, and we are pleased with what we have seen. The brands have leading market share positioning, and our teams are working hard to enhance them even further by leveraging the commercial and scale capabilities of Nomad Foods. In 2022, we plan to invest significantly in the business with targeted A&P increases and growth-focused capital investments, and we are confident of delivering our stated synergy target of EUR 15 million by the end of 2024.
Fortenova's frozen food business represents our fifth acquisition since the creation of Nomad Foods in 2015, and it shares many of the same characteristics as the deals that preceded it. Iconic brands with No. 1 market share, strong consumer awareness, and attractive free cash flow. While we are excited to integrate Fortenova in the coming quarters, we have the appetite and capacity to continue the consolidation of frozen food across Europe. Our M&A pipeline is active, and we look forward to updating you with progress when we have news to share. In August 2021, we announced a $500 million buy-back program expiring in August 2024. To date, we have repurchased 4.2 million shares for a total value of EUR 94 million, and we continue to regard opportunistic repurchases as a highly accretive option to drive shareholder value.
Turning to slide 5, we're pleased to share a number of the sustainability milestones that we achieved in 2021. As Europe's leading frozen food company and a major purchaser of fish and agricultural produce, we are committed to playing our part in transforming the food system to protect natural resources and tackle climate change. Despite significant challenges across our supply chain in 2021, we have continued to raise the bar, and I would like to provide you with a few examples. In 2021, we joined the United Nations Race to Zero and announced plans to significantly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. We are also partnering with the World Wildlife Fund to further enhance our work on sustainable agriculture.
During 2021, we achieved 100% renewable electricity in all of the factories within our base business, which reflects the medium-term direction of our energy strategy. As recognition of our progress on sustainability over a number of years, we were also delighted to be included in Dow Jones Sustainability Europe Index for the first time. We were ranked as one of the top 4 companies in Europe within the food product industry with a full 100 score in health and well-being. Turning to slide 6, I believe it is important to look at our results in 2021 in context of what we have achieved since the creation of this business in 2015.
Following the series of early acquisitions which consolidated much of the Birds Eye, iglo and Findus operations across Europe, we have continued to grow our sales from EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 2.6 billion, with a run rate into 2022 of EUR 2.9 billion, including the Fortenova business. Our adjusted EBITDA has increased by over 50% to EUR 487 million, and our adjusted EPS has increased by 85% at an average annual rate of 13% to a 2021 reported EUR 1.55 per share.
We will discuss our 2022 guidance later, but I'm confident that our business is well positioned to repeat this pattern of growth. In this current year and over the medium and longer term, supported by excellent team across Europe, our strong brand portfolio and consumer proposition, and our proven track record to deploy capital in the optimal way to drive value for shareholders. With that, I will now hand the call over to Samy to review our financial results and guidance in more detail. Samy?
Thank you, Stéfan, and thank you all for your participation on the call today. Turning to slide 7, I will provide more detail on our key fourth quarter operating metrics. We reported revenues of EUR 704 million in the fourth quarter, with growth of 7% year-on-year, driven primarily by the acquisitions of Findus Switzerland and the Fortenova frozen food business. As a reminder, the Findus Switzerland business was acquired at the start of 2021, while Q4 represented our first quarter of ownership of the Fortenova business. Beyond M&A, fourth quarter revenues also benefited two percentage points from favorable foreign exchange translations. These are offset by a 4.5% decline in organic revenues as we anniversaried elevated consumption resulting from lockdown across Europe in the prior year period. Full year revenues increased by 3.6% year-on-year.
Within these results, organic sales declined 2.1%, reflecting a low single-digit decline in the frozen food category, albeit still reflecting strong growth on a two-year basis versus the pre-pandemic levels. Against this backdrop, our market share for the year was down 20 basis points. However, the momentum in our business through half two and into 2022 has been positive with solid market share growth since May 2021, as we recovered our positions following out of stocks and supply constraints during the first four months of the year. Gross margins were 26.5% during the fourth quarter, reflecting a 500 basis points decline compared to the prior year and in line with our expectations.
This was composed of a 350 basis point decline in our base business as inflationary pressures impacting the business during the quarter while mitigating pricing follows at a lag, with price increases expected to be implemented through 2022. The remaining 150 basis points contraction was driven by the inclusion of the Findus Switzerland and Fortenova acquisitions, whose gross margin are seasonally lower at this time of the year. The base business gross margin decline was driven by the anniversary of strong volumes in the prior year, increased promotional activity, channel mix, and cost of goods inflation. On a full year basis, gross margin declined 140 basis points, with M&A mix driving roughly half of the contraction.
Moving down to the rest of the P&L, fourth quarter adjusted operating expenses declined 9% year-over-year and compares against a 15% increase in the prior year. This year's decline reflects a more normalized level of A&P spend as we anniversaried the incremental EUR 10 million of investment last year behind brand building and consumer retention efforts. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of EUR 113 million was down 5% versus the prior year, and adjusted EPS of EUR 0.33 reflects a 13% decline as a result of the item discussed. Turning to cash flow on slide 8, we generated EUR 232 million of adjusted free cash flow in 2021, representing a conversion rate of 84%.
As we have communicated, this outcome was mainly impacted by working capital outflow as a result of our need to rebuild inventory in 2021 and the anniversary of depressed working capital levels in the prior year. Furthermore, we increased capital investment by EUR 20 million year-on-year to drive investments in capacity expansion and cost takeout. When evaluated on a 2-year basis, 2021 and 2020, our free cash flow conversion was in excess of our 90%-100% target. Turning to slide 9, our strong free cash flows underpin our long-term capital allocation strategy, and we have been consistently generating cash since our formation, delivering EUR 1.55 billion in the 6 years since 2016.
Looking forward, as we continue to strengthen our brand portfolio and operational footprint, we fully expect to drive conversion at the 90%-100% level over the medium term. During the year, we took the opportunity to significantly amend and extend our capital structure with a refinancing of almost EUR 1 billion of debt, inclusive of our revolving credit facility, an issuance of EUR 400 million in new senior secured notes to partially fund the acquisition of the Fortenova frozen food business at the end of September. At the year-end, our average debt maturity was 4.9 years, with a reduced year-on-year average debt cost of 2.3%. We remain committed to our 3-4 times net debt to EBITDA target as we believe this is the optimal balance for our business to drive accretive growth over the long term.
As we have previously highlighted, we are investing in our business with capital investment of 3%-4% of sales in 2021 and 2022 as we target specific high return projects. Finally, we will continue to deploy capital in an accretive way to drive growth where appropriate. As Stéfan mentioned earlier, we maintain an active M&A pipeline of targets within our core capability set to expand our footprint and maximize synergy potential. Balancing this, we regard buybacks as a sensible alternative to drive value for our shareholders, particularly given our consistent and on-track progression towards our long-term operational and financial objectives as outlined at our Investor Day in November 2020.
With that, let's turn to our final slide 10, to review our 2022 guidance, which we are initiating today and is based on our latest economic outlook and foreign exchange rates as of February 17, 2022. Starting with the top line, we expect to return to solid organic revenue growth in the low single-digit range for the year. This is a balanced outcome of phased price increases in the first and second halves of the year, and a willingness to lose some volumes across our markets as we push for maximal cost recovery. We expect our newly acquired Adriatic business to continue its recovery during 2022. Its incremental contribution to revenues during the first nine months of the year supports our reported revenue guidance of high single digits for the full year 2022.
Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow by high single digits due to the performance in our base business, cost controls, and the inclusion of the Fortenova acquisition. All in, we expect adjusted EPS in a range of EUR 1.71-EUR 1.75 per share, representing another year of double-digit growth at the midpoint. Like many businesses, we are currently experiencing high levels of inflation, which we plan to recover in a number of pricing waves throughout the year. As a result, we expect an improving gross margin profile over the course of 2022 as we recover cost input pressures in two phases through the first and second halves of the year. Supplementing this, we expect the favorable mix from Fortenova to provide a tailwind to margin, driven by the performance in the high season of quarter two and three, where ice cream sales are strong.
Based on this sequence of gross margin evolution, the seasonal loss from Fortenova during Q1, and relatively difficult comparisons during the first three months of the year, we expect sequentially improving financial performance throughout the course of the year. For cash flow, we are confident we will deliver strong free cash flows in 2022. However, we expect a combination of higher capital investment and the implementation of the EU's Directive on Unfair Trading Practices across the countries in which we operate to present some headwinds to our 90%-100% medium-term conversion in 2022. Specifically, the adoption timeline of the EU Directive on Unfair Trading Practices is not consistent across all markets, and therefore, we are currently working to both evaluate and mitigate this in a sustainable way. We will give further detail on this at the end of the first quarter. That concludes our remarks.
I will now turn the session over to Q&A. Thank you. Operator, back to you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, you may press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Great. Thanks very much. Couple questions here. Maybe to start with pricing, you know, as you've discussed, with pricing not yet fully phased in, a tough top-line comp with last year and the seasonality of Fortenova that you talked about, it sounds like the shape of first quarter sort of profitability could still be under some pressure, sort of like what you saw in the fourth quarter. I know in the fourth quarter, EPS was down some 14% or so year-over-year. I'm just trying to get a sense of the magnitude of what we should think about in terms of the, you know, year-over-year change in earnings.
Again, regarding still in the first quarter, regarding organic sales, I know that it's still a pretty tough comp, as you're still not fully lapped the lockdown from last year. Would you expect any sequential improvement in the year-over-year decline in organic sales from what you saw in 4Q to 1Q? I've just got a follow-up.
Okay. Thank you very much, Andrew. Let me start with obviously the full year results and the quarterly results. Let me start with, you know, what we're coming up with in terms of guidance, which is double-digit EPS growth and obviously revenue growth. That's the full picture for the full year. To your point, this year will be very different quarter by quarter. I think your points are right. First quarter, you know, we still had last year COVID. This year we have to lap this part. Interesting to see, by the way, that we are gaining market share in the meantime, which is something we've been doing over the last now 10 months. That's an interesting piece.
To your point, yes, there is always, you know, some sort of time lag between, let's say, COGS and price. That is the nature of the different countries we have some countries that, let's say structurally, the negotiations are happening faster, some are happening obviously, at a different pace. This year we also will go through potentially several waves of price increases, which is going to make, you know, obviously the quarter by quarter, let's say, comparison a bit more difficult. The last piece to your point, absolutely right. Fortenova Q4, Q1, structurally, these are the, let's say, the lowest
Let's say quarters just for a simple reason is the very strong, you know, ice cream business, by definition, is obviously sells a bit less in the winter and early spring. I can tell you and when we see obviously Q2, Q3, we are very pleased. I'm not going to obviously come up with the details of each quarter, but I think directionally it is true that it's going to be a different story. Now, your point about the second question about the sales, yes, I think what you see exactly to your point about, you know, tough comps in the first quarter, we should see obviously this, you know, ramping up over time.
I think we're also planning to increase market share on the full year basis. That's a bit, you know, what we can see this year, which is volatile by nature. It's a different perspective compared to what we had. Definitely after six years of growth, we have all the intents to grow again in 2022.
Okay, thanks. Then you talked about we've heard a lot about grocery sales in general, and you talked about the frozen food category as well has been running down kind of low single digit just given the extreme nature of the lockdown in many countries in Europe last year versus a reopened environment these days, and you still have some of that to go before you fully lap that.
Have you seen, I guess, any changes more recently in the overall frozen food category performance at retail that leads you to believe that, you know, once you've kind of fully lapped some of those more significant lockdowns last year that the category itself can sort of more quickly return to, you know, sort of modest growth that I would think would be sort of underpinning your expectation around low single digit organic sales growth for the year?
I think you're absolutely right. When you take a bit of the distance, Andrew, what we can see is on a CAGR basis, two-year basis, we compare obviously 2020. Let's say 2019 and 2022 and 2021, two years, what we've seen is a CAGR of around 3.3%, which is definitely higher than what we had in the past with the category. Another way to look at it is also, and we have this for our five top markets, but I don't see any reason why this wouldn't apply for all the markets, the number of consumers going to frozen.
We also have seen something like 2019 we were close to a bit lower than 42 million people you know consumers 41.7 to be precise. In the meantime we've seen the number of consumers growing by something like close to 5% which is definitely very encouraging. When you think about it I think people start they've tasted again you know the frozen food. They've seen what they've tasted it they like it. They also I think it's only the beginning. I definitely believe that they see for example waste is a big component. I definitely think it's going to grow in the future and nothing can definitely beat frozen food from that standpoint.
I think that health and the sustainability are definitely strong tailwind for us, and it's going to help us in the future. We're hoping to materialize at what pace, we don't know yet, but definitely these are also some key themes we will emphasize in the future.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, good morning, folks.
Hi, Jason.
Good afternoon.
Good morning.
I think it may be afternoon for you. Question on price. I know there's a lot of noise in the prior year base, so sometimes it's easier to look at things on a two-year stacked basis. When we do that, you clearly have inflation escalating every quarter, but at the same time, you've got price slipping lower. I think this is the second consecutive quarter that year-on-year price on a one- or two-year stacked basis has eroded, and it's now negative. What's driving that negativity? What's driving the erosion? And what does that foreshadow in terms of the pace and magnitude of price increase you're gonna get as we roll into next year to offset some of this inflationary pressure?
Well, I think when you see Q4, I think you have to take into account the fact that in Q4 the year before, we were totally under-promoted for obvious reasons. That's the main reason why you have obviously that, you know, that difference in Q4. I can only tell you that definitely, I mean, the intent is to price according to COGS. As we know in Europe, it's going to be a bit staggered, but that's, you know, that's how we want to exit the year and to prepare ourselves for the coming years. You know, quite frankly last year, there was also obviously very, very low COGS, as you know. We've seen that.
We've been extremely efficient from that standpoint, which then is materializing also in terms of price. I think we're also well equipped compared to private label, which also helps us in terms of potential recession. But at the same time right now is clearly, you know, according to COGS, obviously with pricing. It's just taking a bit more time here and there, as you know, but that's the way it's working country by country.
Well, on the topic of timing, your comments on potentially multiple rounds was a bit surprising in a good way to me. I suppose I've always viewed continental Europe as a one shot on goal per year type market, where you can negotiate start of the year, and that's it. You're kind of locked in, and you gotta wait for the next year.
Were those comments of multiple rounds really more referring to U.K. where you have more flexibility, or are you seeing more flexibility under the European markets as well?
I would be very simple, Jason. The world is changing, and so we are changing and the others will be changing. That's it.
It's good stuff. All right. Thanks a lot. I'll pass it on.
Yeah.
Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Hi. Thanks. I just wanted to make sure I'm doing the math right, Fortenova in 2022. I'm getting, you know, at least an 8% contribution, based on the original EUR 270 million forecast. If that's the case, your guidance for 2022 is high single digit. There's not a lot of wiggle room there for organic growth being positive. Am I doing the math right, or is your definition of organic growth just, you know, just very, very modest?
Well, on that program first, yeah, overall, let's say we've reaffirmed the fact that our earnings, I think our EPS are going to be double-digit, and effective from that standpoint, if you want, with the revenue pattern we have, we are clearly seeing growth in 2022. Fortenova is clearly a vector that's contributing to that, no doubt. As you know, I mean, we have a history of integrating a newly acquired business and driving out synergies as fast as we can, I mean, from that perspective, and we have provided, I mean, some perspective on the side that Fortenova was going to be a key contributor to the business.
Overall, we don't provide, as you know, I mean, necessarily a breakdown across the business that we have acquired and by category either. Overall, if you want, the commitment is that the combination of both the existing base business and Fortenova is to drive, if you want, double-digit EPS growth overall. With Fortenova clearly being a key vector to that, but organic efforts continuing to be an area where we continue to invest and grow.
One more thing, Robert. Yes, I would put it that way. From the start, our model has always been based on the combination of organic growth and M&A. That's exactly what's happening right now.
I'd like to get a little more specific, if I could. Is there anything that you find you've had to do with Fortenova to rationalize SKUs, maybe shrink the business to grow first on top line? Given the numbers that you're providing there, I think you need to give us a little more detail on what is happening with that business.
Well, the business is not changing. I would put it that way. I think after five months in and out, the only thing we can see is we can only confirm what we've seen from the start, which is, you know, great business, great brands. I think it requires a bit of reinvestment as we knew, especially in terms of freezers, for example, route to market. That's exactly what we're doing. We're increasing a bit also the A&P, and that's what we're doing at this stage. We also, by the way, very much in line with our model of must-win battles. We are defining what the must-win battles are.
We are focusing even further the investment behind, you know, the key categories, which unsurprisingly will be also, by the way, impulse, for example, in ice cream, take home, and also some other, one or two other, frozen food. Very much in line with the rest of the business. People like it, by the way, they like this focus, but that's. There is nothing changed compared to, what we said, we would do, quite the contrary.
Robert, the complementary perspective I would add as well, to clearly complement the picture is that we are clearly gearing up very fast, I mean, the synergy agenda as well, overall we beat on cost and on top-line revenue as well. I mean, very consistent with what we have talked about on the Fortenova announcement. Effectively, I would refer back to Aunt Bessie's as well.
Yeah.
Findus Sweden, where we have a very good historical track record of integrating well and driving our synergies out. Frankly, that's what makes Nomad Foods so very strong on the M&A side to complement the organic view side as well.
This one is just a bit bigger.
Yeah.
There's no change in terms of your sales expectations for Fortenova, it sounds like. Just to follow up on Jason English's question about pricing waves, does that imply also more than one, you expect to take more than one price increase in a given country during the course of the year? Because in the U.S., it's more like, well, you raise the pricing as you need to, and then if you need more pricing, you take another pricing round. This one sounded, at least the way you're describing it, as you already know there's gonna be more than one, in a given country in a given year. Is that fair?
Well, to your point, you know, countries are a bit different and inflation levels are a bit different country by country. I would put it that way, yes, we are. Our intent is to raise prices more than once. At the end of the day, also partly in line with what the U.S. players are doing, which is on a need basis. Nothing really different. Otherwise, to your point, you know, we just, you know, this idea of having a timeline between COGS and price is not the kind of things we want. That's very much in line with what the U.S. players are doing.
Okay. Last question. You said you're willing to cede some volume as you raise price.
You're also saying that you expect to gain market share. Can you help us reconcile those two things? Can you do both at the same time?
Yeah. We already had one, by the way. I think we were right. Yes, I think it's important. Well, by definition, Robert, it's never easy to do both at the same time. That's our job, obviously, to maneuver around this. What's important in terms of shareholders' value is to make sure they know the cash flow of the future are not going to be, let's say, damaged. What's important for us is to make sure that on the long term, the gross margins are well protected. If it means that we may have some bumps in the road, that's life.
We believe as management and as shareholders, by the way, that it is the right thing to do on a long-term basis. Still, at the same time, yes, to your point, we're still intending to gain market share. We've been doing this for the last 10 months. That's what we want to do, what we want to achieve. We don't want to have full dislocation. It depends on what you're defining as dislocation or what's a negotiation. You know, you have to carefully choose these things. That's what's happening when inflation is a bit higher. That's normal.
Okay. Appreciate it.
As a reminder, it's star one to ask a question. Our next question comes from the line of John Baumgartner with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning. Thanks for the question. You know, first off, Stéfan, you know, there's been a lot of focus during the COVID era on volume, given the swings of consumption in home and then out of the home, and you mentioned the growth in new consumers this morning. I'd like to focus on product mix. You know, to the extent that new households have come into the category since 2020 in frozen, you've been increasing your offerings of single-serve meals, entrees, even independent of Green Cuisine. I'm curious, what are you seeing in terms of demand for those premium products? And then given the changing consumption trends, is it reasonable to think that mix can contribute a larger portion to organic revenue growth in the future on a sustainable basis relative to pre-COVID?
Well, to your point, let me start with Green Cuisine. Green Cuisine is part of a new category. We believe that long term it's going to be, you know, a fantastic category, and it's growing very nicely. We're gaining market share in this category, which is growing, which is nice. To your point, we've seen a lot of these consumers tasting, testing our products, and what they've seen is definitely something which is of a great quality. So that's for Green Cuisine, which by the way generates a very nice gross margin. That's also important to notice. For the rest, I would put it that way, John .
I think we remain true to our must-win battle concept, but which is very much in line with what we said, which is we're focusing on the categories country by country, where we have the highest market share, the highest growth potential, and the highest gross margin. To your point, I think there is a remarkable, let's say, convergence with what you said. But from our standpoint, we have not changed our game from that standpoint. We just have adapted it. Obviously, we're also capitalizing on e-commerce, which as you know, is good for frozen food and is very good for brands like us, like ours.
Okay. On the operational side, Samy, you know, Nomad Foods launched this company-wide transformation optimization program in 2020. I think you made some good changes to the supply chain since then as well. Can you highlight, you know, any specific accomplishment in that program during 2021? What can we expect in terms of, you know, milestones or focus areas for 2022 in terms of optimization? Thank you.
Sure. John, on that one, I mean, just to set the record right, I would say the program was really initiated in 2021. It covers a number of areas, if you want, of transformation that are aimed at effectively maximizing revenue growth and accelerating them, and as well, if you want, optimizing our whole cost structure. At this very stage, we have completed, let's say, the task of putting together the appropriate team, starting to work effectively on the key building blocks that are going to drive us on both sides of revenue and cost optimization.
You will hear more, if you want, in this year, but at this very stage, we are clearly completing the design phase as we speak in order for us to move the start of the implementation phase in the second half of the year. It's a big program, as you know, and we've been talking about it, and it's a multi-year program. Probably the benefit will start to kick off, if you want, more toward 2023 onwards as opposed to 2022, where we will be effectively implementing the different parts of the program.
Okay. Thanks for your time.
Thank you, John.
Our next question comes from the line of Jon Tanwanteng with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Not to beat it to death, but I was just wondering if you could expand a little bit more on the pricing commentary and the multiple increases this year. Are you seeing parity now with the U.S. model just in terms of the ability to raise prices, you know, closer to real time? Or is this still a way to go before you reach that point with maybe a big piece of your business that's still staying on the annual model?
Yeah, John, the reality there is the market conditions are changing, okay? I think historically, Europe has been operating particularly in our segment and potentially in a lot of other staples businesses under a fairly low single, I mean, level of inflation. Usually if you want, you got into a regular pattern as you are very familiar with, which is inflation, the negotiation, promotional plan alignment to get to an aligned view that will effectively preserve margin, contributing to optimized growth and hopefully gain share. The context has dramatically changed now, as you know, and what we're seeing is effective inflation that is touching not only us, but everyone.
There are effectively the conditions at this stage whereby we either go with a very high inflation and have to spend the year to correct or effectively try to stagger the pricing in a way that's probably more conducive to the reality of inflation. We are starting the process. Clearly, this is something that is not just only concerning us, but many other operators if you're in the area of FMCG. Don't forget that within pricing, there's pricing per se, but there's a number of other components that are important to optimize, such as promotion, as you know, such as price pack architecture as well, such as trade terms. The whole idea is to use all of the vectors. That's what has frankly made us very strong in developing our revenue growth management strategy.
Rather than doing one go in the year, trying to spread it in a way that effectively soften down the implementation and enable the retailer to really be with us as we reflect the appropriate level of inflation into our pricing.
Okay, great. Thank you for that. Second, I was wondering if you could talk about the phasing of promotional spending this year, and if there's any specific lumpiness that you're expecting, if there's any concentration maybe on Green Cuisine or a separate program. I think you mentioned that acquisitions will get some concentration this year. Just help us understand how that will run through the quarter as you expect it today.
On the promotion, I think the one message you're hearing is effectively we wanna grow the business and you know this is a market where promotion are absolutely critical. We had situations because of supply issue, particularly in the past, whereby our promotional ramp up, if you want, has not been up to what we would like to see simply because we didn't have the product in the quantity we wanted. Now effectively getting to a point where vast majority of the supply issues, if you want, are behind us. We are able to promote the business and so therefore you would see probably a more steady pattern of our promotional activity across the year.
Leveraging as well the seasonality of the product on both sides of the portfolio, which is effectively the base business on the one end and the Fortenova business, which will go through a different promotional cycle. The intent is to clearly drive competitiveness in promotion, be it if you're on the aisle, being on end-of-aisle displays or on features, in order for us to continue to attract consumers in our category, in our business.
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
As a reminder, it is star one to ask a question. We have a follow-up from the line of Jon Tanwanteng. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, thank you for the follow-up. I was wondering within your EPS guidance for the year, are there any planned repurchases or other assumptions around capital deployment or allocation, just included in that? If so, what are they?
As you know, I mean, we have aligned on the $500 million authorization. We have realized $94 million out of this $500 million, $94 million in Q4. We continue to look at buyback as an opportunity for us to beef up our performance from an EPS standpoint. We are always going to assess the buyback versus other form of capital allocation optimization there. We won't provide you a number per se, but clearly the intent is to continue the program, and we have this authorization to make good use of it at the time effectively we judge is the right moment there.
We have the authorization in place, we've already started, and we intend to continue. At this very steady objective is to contribute to driving double EPS growth and drive the best return possible for the shareholders.
Okay, great. Just to be clear, there is some component of that that's included in guidance.
I've not said that.
Okay.
I've just told you that we are looking at this on a, in a very regular way in order for us to clearly contribute to the delivery of the goals and looking at all possibilities within our capital allocation strategy.
Okay, fair enough. Second follow-up, if I may. I was just wondering, just given your supply chain and demand base, is there any risk at all just from conflict in Eastern Europe? Are there any impacts that may, you know, be coming down the line just in terms of the ability to get supply or anything else that we may not be thinking of at this point?
Well, let me start by saying, you know, first, we have no or very little sales and no footprint at all in these countries. That's the first thing. In terms of supply chain, yes, definitely there are, you know, we have some of our commodities, you know, that are like everybody else, energy is one component, some ingredients, fish as well. So we have some exposure. What we're hearing so far as anybody else is the measures are more of a financial nature. Still, obviously, we have not waited to prepare ourselves. I think we've demonstrated that we can be. The adaptability is something that we're very strong with. That can be the name of the game.
Definitely we already have prepared ourselves in terms of how we can do the dependency, can we move to other species if needed, that kind of things. Short term, midterm, you know, we're preparing ourselves. We haven't waited.
Okay, great. Thank you again.
Okay.
Our next question is a follow-up from Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, just a quick one. Sorry if I missed this. Did you mention what you were looking for in terms of total inflation in 2022? I'm just trying to get a read therefore on what sort of pricing, you know, would be needed to ultimately help you know manage profit dollars. Thank you.
We haven't provided a specific number, I mean, out there, but suffice to say that when you start to aggregate the different pieces, if you want, of our COGS, and you know the breakdown of our business between fish, veg, and the rest, then you definitely have some view of the different components. We're clearly looking at, depending on the category between mid to high single digit inflation that will require effectively associated pricing across the different ways we are going to execute.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Peter Saleh with BTIG. Please proceed with your question.
Yeah, great. Thank you. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to come back to that, previous question. Can you just elaborate a little bit on what you can do on supply chain to make sure you have the appropriate product? Can you buy stuff ahead of time, just to make sure that you're not in a crunch period with all the ongoings in Europe at this point? Thank you.
Well, the first thing we're doing, for example, energy for example, we fully hedged. That's one thing. You know, we obviously increased our hedge over time. In terms of, let's say, fish and all the rest of it, as I said, you know, it's not limited to Russia. You have all the other suppliers. You also can move, you know, to other species. They can be wild cod, they can be farmed fish as well. By the way, interesting also to see that, you know, for example, you know, we're very proud of our Green Cuisine Fishless Fingers. That's a great way to obviously increase, you know, the exposure to the consumers.
It's a great product, and I think it comes very handy at the right time. A lot of options are available. Some more short-term by nature, but also as I think more in the long-term, we will need to flex our muscle and to demonstrate the adaptability. The one point I think I just want to make sure it doesn't get lost in translation is that we clearly have been on our toes, I mean, on this one. We have not waited for today to frankly start this thinking.
This thinking is we have started a while ago as we saw the situation deteriorating, and we had a task force that have been put in place in order for us to rethink broadly from supply availability to possibility to adapt the formula while maintaining the same level of quality requirement for our consumers and making sure that effectively we had a lot of preparedness scenarios in case we had some supply routes that would be shut down or whatever. Let's not forget that effectively we've got fish, but we've got as well veg, where we have, let's say, stock that is being built, for peas, for instance, once a year. We had a great season last year, which is clearly going to give us quite large quantities of peas if you want for the year.
We have, I mean, spinach and other products. We clearly have taken that very seriously, and we will try to leverage our competitive advantage on the fact that we don't have any position in Russia, we don't have any position in Ukraine, and our
Footprint wise.
Yes, yes. We just need now to make sure that we get the product we need, which we are working on. I mean, at this stage, and we have the right plan in place.
Great. Is it fair to assume that some of these mitigation strategies and maybe any additional costs associated with them are already contemplated to a certain degree in 2022 guidance?
Well, at this stage, I think it's too early to say because we don't know yet whether there will be some penalties or not. The fact of the matter, to your point, I think it's important to understand that. If at some stage, you know, we're coming with other species, for example, we also have a conversation with the customers. You know, that's a fact as well. That's a fact. It's something that everybody will understand. The clear intent to your question is to remain committed on delivering double-digit EPS growth.
Yes.
If there were some adverse elements there, we, you know us, you know our past record. I mean, frankly, we've delivered, if not over-delivered. The intent is to continue to drive the same pattern as we look forward. This year is no different from the others. We are committed to delivering the number that we have laid out.
Great. Thank you very much.
We have another follow-up from the line of John Baumgartner with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Yep. Thanks. Thanks for the follow-up. Just a quick point of clarification. The $75 million of share repurchase in Q4, is that sort of a timing thing where it will show up on the P&L in Q1? Or was that kinda offset on a net basis by, I guess, share issuance? I'm just curious because the share count didn't really move much in Q4 sequentially.
Yeah. The number has been executed, if you want, in Q4, definitely. I mean, what's important there is that the 75 is Q4, the 94 is the total that has been realized, if you want, overall. That's how it's been playing out.
Okay. Thank you.
We have another follow-up from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Hi. Thanks again. Just to be clear on the guidance, can you confirm that it contemplates, like, $100 per barrel oil, a significant increase in natural gas? Maybe you can give us a rough estimate on what % those components are of your total cost basket.
We can take offline the specific one on feedstock or underlying assumption on that, I think, Robert, but rest assured that our forecast is consistent with the macroeconomic condition, and that is already embedded into the guidance that we have. Our energy cost, if you want, represent a small percentage of our total COGS, as you know, even if we are in an industry where we heat and we freeze, but it's still small. The reality is that effectively we've seen a significant inflation increase, I mean, at that level, which we have hedged against, and so that we would be covered for the year. I can take offline if you want the specific assumption relating to all of Q2 or other elements that are of interest for you.
Okay, thanks. Did you say you expect mid-single digit pricing in your modeling for 2022, or did I mishear that?
No, we didn't say that.
No. No, we didn't say that.
We did say that inflation, if you want, on the different category of products we are facing would range on a yearly basis, if you want, from mid- to high-single-digit inflation. Depending on the timing and our commitment to recover inflation through pricing, we will adapt the pricing accordingly indeed, I mean, so that the total of the waves enable us to come out of the year to have recovered inflation exiting the year.
Got it. Thank you.
There are no further questions. I'd like to hand it back over to Stéfan Descheemaeker for closing remarks.
Thank you for your participation on today's call. Well, 2021 has been an eventful year. We are all learning to live with COVID while we see unprecedented inflation impacting global supply chains. Our organization has remained focused and shown incredible commitment to ensure the delivery of the business objective that we outlined at the start of the year. We are pleased to have achieved the fifth consecutive year of record financial performance and look forward to making it six in 2022. As a reminder, we'll be attending the CAGNY event later today, where we intend to talk through the business drivers in more granular detail. We look forward to speaking to many of you there.
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.