We'll kick off our next fireside chat with Nomad Foods. So welcome back, everybody, to our fireside chat with Nomad. With me today are CEO, Stéfan Descheemaeker, and CFO, Samy Zekhout. Welcome, gentlemen. Truly great to be back with you here.
Thank you, Andrew.
Thank you, Andrew.
Great. Let me get this to kick off, Nomad this morning reaffirmed its full year guidance on both the top line, EBITDA, EPS and cash flow, and gave some sort of preliminary guidance for its Q3 as well. Q3 on both the top line and EPS and EBITDA is a bit below where the street is currently placed. How much of that is just the, you know, different committee? Was there any change to your back half perspective and the cadence of profit in the back half, or is it just what the street has been modeling it, and you're not seeing a lot of change relative to what you had anticipated initially?
Well, let me start with labor of the mind. Nothing has changed. No, but something like four weeks ago, we came up, you may remember, with about the same guidance, you know-
Mm-hmm.
mid-single digit sales growth, EPS and cash flow. We increased EPS. We increased EPS for two reasons. One is operations are on track. They're on track, and, in the meantime, we went through a buyback program, 3 million shares, and mathematically, it gives us, you know, the, the EPS increase. So that was it.
Mm-hmm.
With that, you know, we clearly had in mind that there would be a difference within H2, between Q3 and Q4.
Mm-hmm.
The reason being, well, first, challenging comps. Last year was really the first quarter where we increased price significantly. So let's say sales will grow, grow by 8% solely from price.
Mm-hmm.
Second, we said very clearly last month, a month ago, that we're going to increase significantly in A&P. Significantly is really significant, to put something like 50% on the, on an H2 basis. The reality is nothing has changed, but we've decided to put this money, starting from the start, by the way, in, by starting in Q... In, let's say by mid-August.
Mm-hmm.
Which is the best way to use your money. Simple as that. When you have that in mind and you're thinking about the A&P, well, impact in terms of sales would not start at best before Q4. It's not going to impact, you know, the first six weeks of the quarter, but the cost obviously does.
Yeah.
Promotion, we said, we talked about promotion.
Mm-hmm.
We're starting promotion almost as we speak, actually. Something like a week ago. Promotion is coming faster by the very definition of promotion, but it's only in one month.
Mm-hmm.
So from that standpoint, we said, yeah, very clearly there would be a reality between between both. So back now, operationally, things are on track. Nothing has changed.
Mm-hmm.
We're not changing the guidance, we're not changing anything. We just said, you know, given the discrepancy-
Mm-hmm.
-which starts in the end, also with the Barclays coming, it would be the most appropriate thing, where the market would to make sure that the numbers would be in line, but nothing has changed. I cannot be clearer than that.
Right. And I know that the timing of a return to A&P and some promotional spending is timed, correct me if I'm wrong, with back to school time frames when people are sort of back from maybe summer holiday and travel.
Yeah.
Is this when you can have the biggest impact, on consumption and volume?
Yeah.
Do I have that right, and is there anything more to it?
Well, it is, it is absolutely the case, and I think, frankly, what we've been doing over the first half was to hold it until effectively we had the confirmation that all of the action we are taking, we're delivering. And that led us as well to hold it a bit on, on A&P, as we ll, a moment in time. But as effectively, we looked at the second half of the year, where we had all of the budgeted money carried out, we wanted to restart doing it at the time.
Effectively, people were starting to make some choices, refilling the freezer after returning from vacation and so on, and making sure that effectively, whenever they were comparing the different prices in terms of, let's say, various type of product, various type of protein, our product was really going to make it, if you want, as their preferred choice as we went through. So combining promo efficiency, in-store presence and retail at the same time, let's say, stepping up our advertising, was effectively a good combination for us. So it give us the maximum chance to ignite effectively the momentum we wanted to get to.
And I realize, you know, consumption or takeaway is the ultimate sort of arbiter of all this, and we'll see how that plays out as the year unfolds. But you probably are obviously, at this point, are very... a good visibility, at least into the arrangement, the merchandising arrangements you have with key customers, the collaboration that you're looking for in the back half with all this A&P. Maybe you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing vis-a-vis your largest customers as you ramp up, you know, the timing around A&P with promotional spend.
Well, I have to say, frankly, they're very appreciative from the fact that readjusting the category is a clear sign from them on our commitment after a moment where we have, let's say, stepped down a bit, our investment. Bringing back, if you want, winning copies, like the Captain copies, going back at a very specific claims.
... being more present in promo at very specific price point, coming out of all of the work we've done in some instances with them through RGM as well. I mean, it gives them, frankly, the confirmation of our commitment to the business and the category of getting consumer back to the aisle. They need it. It's a very profitable category for them as well, I mean, very clearly, and for them, having more momentum there is effectively a good sign for them of their recovery at the moment, where people are under huge strain from a portfolio standpoint. So clearly there, of course, there is tension on pricing.
Of course, there's always a debate on which product to put on promo, what's the pricing they want to have on their own brand, and so on and so forth, and it's a discussion indeed, but at the same time, seeing us back on the investment side and on the fact that we want to be competitive on promo, is giving them a very good sign that we want to reinvest and reignite the category growth in that sector.
That's a good segue into price gaps. I guess, where are price gaps currently with respect to Nomad brand, you know, the Birds Eye brand and others, with private label, and I guess, when do you anticipate that returning to what we'd call more typical or normalized levels?
I have to say, frankly, that there's always, I mean, two elements in there. I control, we control one, which is Nomad, and we don't control the other. But the reality is that what we have seen since the beginning of the year is the increase of price gap, which had gone up as high as 10%, has gradually gone down to now in the range of about 5%. 5% versus the historical level, which we feel is about frankly manageable as we step up, if you want, our investment from an A&P standpoint at the same time, and as we get more competitive from a promo standpoint. So are we satisfied with where we are?
Probably not yet completely, but as we are taking the surgical intervention on a pricing category combination basis, we're expecting, if you want, that some of our category will start to reignite growth, honestly, giving them as well some margin for them effectively to reignite their own profitability of the category where we operate, and so that they can as well reinvest in other parts of their, of their business, I mean, from a retail standpoint. But very clearly there, there is now a convergence point. It may well be that effectively, they may decide whether to promote even more, but we don't expect, certainly, we haven't seen such signs given what we have been observing over the past months.
Especially knowing that the cost of living was a big thing. What we see is COGS going, let's say, going milder. As a result, price will be milder, by definition, and at the same time, labor costs starting to, to come back at the right level. So with that, you know, we think, and we've seen this, you know, already, is in the surveys, that the cost of living, little by little, is starting to become less of an issue. And with that in mind, especially for 2024, with this surgical intervention in terms of promo, plus obviously A&P back to where it was, not limited to Q3, by the way, is the right timing.
Yep. And as you said, you were talking about sort of setting this up for a return to volume growth in 2024. I guess, what would be the drivers of volume growth in 2024? How much of that is due to recovering volume lost from elevated price gaps versus, you know, sort of more organic volume growth, if you will?
Let me start with the category. It's a good category. It's doing well, and it has proven again that, you know, it's on top of many food categories, by the way. So we believe that, you know, with this new environment, the category as such is going to grow as in the past. Nothing spectacular, but something like 1-1.5%. With us, you know, going a bit further with the A&P program, with obviously the R&D program, is the model of the past, and that model, the algorithm delivered a lot. So what we know on top of that is that we observe the supply chain, let's say, savings, that will help us to reinvest. And that doesn't take into account yet, you know, how much volume we can regain of what we've lost so far.
But definitely the intent is to regain part of that, which would be obviously a bonus compared to even the previous algorithm we had in the past.
How do you view sort of current levels of sort of promotional spend in your categories? You know, are competitors back to 2019 levels and, and Nomad just needs to sort of catch up? Or is promotional intensity greater than maybe it's been in the past, given the more sensitive consumer environment, particularly a lot of your key, you know, European markets?
We have been, if you've seen a concept of effectively trying to differentiate the price from promo versus shelf, we have been on a journey since 2017 to 2019 of declining the overall promo cost, by the way, not just us, I think, from a category standpoint. Post-COVID, effectively, we started from a low base, and now as we ramp up back the number of promotion and the depth of the promotion, the percentage of the reduction, we are now back to the historical level, which that we have in this category. Fair to say that, frankly, this is a category that is resonating a lot with middle-class consumers, which is frankly our prime prospect in many ways, and therefore they're very sensitive to promo.
We, we call in our jargon, promo hunters, and we really have to make sure that we are competitive in the context where they operate, depending on the channel where they are in front. So promo investment is really an important element for us, so we drive the consumption and get us to where we want to be.
You've seen, for some of the larger sort of U.S.-based packaged food companies, you know, as these companies are lapping pricing, volume recovery has been somewhat slower than I think most of the companies would have anticipated at this point. We've heard lots of different reasons for it. It doesn't, it seems to be still a bit of a puzzle, to a lot of the companies. You know, some say it's consumers hunkering down a little bit, zealously guarding against waste. Maybe it's summer travel and just not cooking as many meals at home. You know, but if it's not as though they're trading down to private label en masse, we haven't seen that. It's not as though they're trading into away-from-home eating en masse, we haven't seen that.
So I'm just curious, maybe your own sort of personal take on maybe why that volume growth recovery, and more generally in the space, has been a little bit slower. I don't know if you're seeing the same thing in a lot of the core categories in Europe as well?
Okay, I'm going back again to what we said in one month ago and today.
Mm-hmm.
Well, it hasn't changed our perspective for the end of the year, that hasn't changed. We don't think, you know, that we will be at zero at the end of the year, so to make it that clear, but definitely our intent is to come back to positive territory in, let's say, in Q1. That's the idea. So it hasn't changed. We haven't seen something like it's going far slower than expected.
Mm-hmm.
We always knew that, you know, it would take a bit of time because we have. We see the first good news is the category as such is doing well.
Yeah.
From that, from there, you know, with the mild price, well, we think, you know, promo and A&P will play a role, and we know the models-
Mm-hmm.
how it's working. So from that standpoint, I'm not surprised. I think it's also going to take a bit of time for those consumers to digest, you know, the cost of living.
Mm-hmm.
And, with that, you know, we see also the, all the negotiations in terms of labor that are coming a bit later. So all these things, well, whoever thought that it would come fast-
Mm-hmm.
Well, it's proven wrong, and we never were in that category. We always thought that it would take a bit of time.
You know, Nomad put through and led as the branded leader in frozen in Europe a number of price increases over the last sort of year and a half. You know, your thoughts were we need to, as the branded leader, protect our margin structure so we don't come out of this inflationary environment with a structurally weaker margin structure.
Yeah.
Take whatever upfront, you know, potential initial weakness may come from price gaps or consumer behavior, knowing that that'll work itself through. You did that very successfully. I mean, you know, I don't think anyone would argue with your credit for taking multiple price increases in the European theater, where it's hard enough to get one through, and I know they were justified, obviously, but I'm curious what your learnings were by going through that process. If you come out of this with retailer relationships that are in a very similar place, or better even, or where, you know, are going through this, or maybe where you were before this inflationary super cycle started.
Well, let me start maybe then. You have much more insight. But to your point, I think we were all in this mindset last year, something like about April, May. We could see our costs going up, you know, a lot, much more than expected. And then, "Oh my God, what are we going to do?" There is this kind of, you know, thinking process that you only can increase price once a year in Europe, and it's behind us. So what are we going to do? Are we going to just swallow this or not? And we decided to change the model. Has it been easy? No. By definition, the retailers didn't like to hear this. They would have preferred by far to keep the same margin.
But we've seen this, you know, they've seen the margin, they've seen the price relative and all these things. Has it been easy? No. Has it, to some extent, in some situations, been antagonized a bit on these things? Yes. Are we coming with the right things in terms of A&P, in terms of promotion intensity, in terms of R&D next year? Absolutely, because that's the role of the market leader that has to bring value to the market, starting with the retailers. Our relationship with the retailers is absolutely fundamental, and what we want is... And I think the model and what we see is the evolution is going that way, is price, little by little, is going to become less important.
It's going to take time because, obviously, now we see it in some categories, you know, there is some decrease, in some others it's increasing. And it's our job to make sure that it's not going to be limited to, for the sake of both and the consumers. It's not going to be limited to price, and we have what it takes to do this.
The one point that I would add is the fact that to rewind the tape back to the beginning of last year, when we started to see the acceleration of inflation, and we said we will probably have to price at the end of the year. I remember the conversation, people said, "Well, it's impossible, this is Europe." And I think that the determination to change the paradigm in terms of business modeling and traditional pricing, in order to maintain the attractiveness of the business so that we could reinvest, it's not about looking to grow margin per se, it was to preserve, to invest. So that determination was, that's important, but how to? Transparency. And to be very honest, that was about an alliance with retailers.
I mean, we had to bring in the stack of invoices, but you have to talk with them in terms of what we're experiencing, but has more for less to go through. And effectively, in that context, as effectively the situation is starting up, it's up and down, there is an expectation that we're coming up with more promo in order to be more competitive and more consistent with the other market is as well at the same time. So it goes both ways there, but that element of challenging the paradigm, but at the same time, changing the way we operate was absolutely critical for us, and that through with, you know, blip in the, in the context.
Capital allocation obviously is crucial for Nomad's EPS growth algorithm. You returned to share buyback this, this quarter. Do you expect to keep this going for the back half of the year, and, and what is sort of M&A and accelerating your balance sheet, deleveraging, play in, or even the possibility of a dividend?
Well, as you know, Andrew, we like M&A. Like, it's a strong word. I'm very unemotional about M&A. I've done a lot of M&A in my life, but it was always unemotional. And I think, quite frankly, the combination of being focused and, you know, very disciplined behind M&A, I think we have an excellent track record in terms of value creation. So that being said, well, I would just take a number today, 8.5x EBITDA. So not sure that we're going to find a lot of M&A targets, even post synergy, with that kind of train of multiple, for something that doesn't require too much due diligence, by the way, hopefully. So buyback is definitely the right answer. At this stage, it can change, but at this stage, it's the right thing.
People, initially, we had to explain this, why did you go to buy back in the first, the first quarter? For a very simple reason, you know, the leverage, we have to start the leverage first to make sure that we would be at the right, at the right level. We were at the right level in Q2, we're at the right level in Q3, so that's the kind of things we're going to do with, with more, with that?
No, I think the point is the focus is effectively continuing to generate cash and turn from profit into cash, which we are now back on doing effectively after the challenge of our structured investment we had made behind inventory. Now that we have the cash generation, plus a cash base that is not insignificant, we have the means to frankly decide, and of course, buyback is a prevalent option, I mean, from that standpoint. But we're looking at other opportunity with the mindset of delivery and the mindset of other options to clearly optimize the return on cash flow and debts.
When, when the time is ultimately right, perhaps for some, from additional M&A, are there still, opportunities in your core frozen space, in your, you know, core European theater to do more? Maybe it's more Eastern Europe, what have you, but do the... Are those, some of those still, those opportunities still there, or do you have to move further afield from the core?
The answer is clearly yes. You still have opportunities in that, in that category.
Mm-hmm.
To your point, geographically-
Mm-hmm.
Central Eastern Europe is one example, but also by category. So, for example, today in the UK, we're covering almost everything. You remember, we went to pizza, we went to something which is very specific to the UK. I'll have to learn myself, which is Yorkshire pudding. But today we have everything. We have pizza, we have this, we have obviously poultry; it's very big for us. We have fish, we have veg. So we can come to the trade with the whole spectrum of possibility, which is exactly what is expected from the category leader. In other countries, we are less; we're not there yet.
Yeah.
There are some opportunities as well, sometimes organically. That's why we start, because we see a wide space, like in France or like in Spain, in terms of pizza, sometimes it can be, it can be achieved by, by M&A. We're not obsessed by size, for the size only. I think we're obsessed by value creation, and I think that's what we've been doing in, with M&A.
In your Q2 remarks, you mentioned that you've kept some of your raw material buying open to take advantage of moderating costs. I guess, what input specifically could there still be some opportunity, and how is this evolving, and how do you see that progressing into 2024?
Yeah. So far, I think by the time we made the announcement in Q2, we're at about 90% of our total material covered, roughly, in terms of supply. By now, we have moved to about 94%-95%, so we are still leaving the position open when we see effectively that some of the material are going down. So we're trying, to be honest, to capture some of these opportunities in order for us, if you recall, we still had, let's say, roughly between EUR 5 and 10 million of pricing to execute, and the context being what it is, the idea would be to kind of almost narrow that down to its bare minimum, hopefully nothing. And so that would be done by exploiting those opportunities.
So the idea is by the end of Q3, we'll be at 100% and have more or less, if you want, negated this requirement for pricing by that point in time. As we look forward, we'll probably have a less aggressive position when it comes to effectively taking longer term commitment because of the trend we see in the market. So if last year, by the end of the year, we're covered at about 55%, very likely we'll be covered by less. I mean, at this time, trying to secure the first half for sure, and effectively be more open the second half, that's, that would be the idea as we move forward the material.
Mm-hmm. Makes sense. The Fortenova deal certainly has been a success thus far. You know, the Adriatic region had extraordinary performance last summer. First, how's the business performing against those very difficult comps? And then second, I guess, what kind of long-term learnings have you taken from the Fortenova deal that might help inform, you know, future opportunities in that part of the world?
Well, so the first, the first answer is very simple, very well. So we've been doing extremely well and versus last year and versus, you know, they, they, they budget. So that's very good. We also learned some, a lot of interesting things. For example, last year, yes, the weather was great, so ice cream was, I mean, was selling extremely well, and we had some out of stocks, and we learned, okay, fine, we need to prepare ourselves. We need to obviously prepare, you know, the, the season so that the stock will be higher, and we've learned from this, and from that standpoint, we're doing extremely well. So that's a big piece, but it's not limited to ice cream. I think it's a way that people have embraced on the integration.
So I think we brought the integration to a high level, and that's definitely our new normal for any new acquisition. We've seen this, you know, the beauty also of being in one category. I think you still making some mistakes by definition-
Mm-hmm.
but fewer and fewer, and not always the same, by definition as well.
Mm-hmm.
Also, you're improving your game every time. And so that's what... And then with Fortenova, we invested a lot, but we're very pleased in terms of, not in terms of price-
Mm-hmm.
But in terms of integration, and, we're very pleased with the outcome. Very pleased.
You talked a lot recently also about your focused approach on Revenue Growth Management this year. Can you give us some concrete examples maybe of how this has impacted your business?
... Absolutely. We've clearly now elevated that to a substantial element of investment in our capability from an organization standpoint, and clearly are covering all of the markets by now. We have a centralized team that is leveraging, if you want, state-of-the-art technology, I mean, from that, and particularly in data analysis. So what does that do effectively? We're going market by market and looking at the areas where we have some challenges in terms of either loss of consumers, lack of competitiveness, loss of in-store presence, and so on, and looking at how to resolve those situations, whether they come from clearly managing the inflation execution in the market, the product offering in terms of price pack, the mix leverage as well. How does the retailer and ourselves, if you want, operate on a given category? An example could be a down count.
Effectively, we have a product that has, let's say, 14 count. We make sure we have taken inflation onto this pricing, onto this product, I mean, ongoing, and it gets to a point where frankly, we see the offtake now going down. So the question effectively is whether we make a change in terms of the pricing or whether we need to change the count, you know, the first to maintain the competitiveness. So we go really market by market, whether it is potato in France or fish in Italy or fish in the UK or fish in Germany, and so on.
We look at what does it take to reignite growth in an area where, effectively, competitors have reacted the way they've been reacting, with the intent of winning consumer back, either to the category or, and/or to our brand, I would say, from that perspective. It covers almost all of the Must Win Battles that we want to do, so we're doing it probably at this stage for 60% of them, but we are planning to frankly cover them all on, on that. It's a lot of data analytics in itself, but with a very practical view as to, let's see, what does that mean from a product organization in the store? It goes on promo, it goes on price pack, it goes as well on the terms with the retailers in terms of effective point of joint promotion.
If you want to do at the same time, let's say, peas and fish promo together, buy one and buy the other one, if not at a discounted price. It's a lot of things that resonates with the consumer, starting with consumer insights, what's really mattering to them, up to the point of what's the ultimate end profitability for us and for the retailer. It's something we cannot do in isolation. We have to meet with the retailer, and hence, a very detailed approach, market by market.
Maybe you can give us some insight into the newest strategy on using alternative fish species. And some of this was out of necessity or risk, you know, sort of risk management. I guess, how's the consumer reaction to the product? How much runway do you think you have on this sort of new fish source, and what impact does it have, potentially, one way or the other, on margins going forward?
Well, to start with the consumer, 'cause that's the most important. The consumer is reacting extremely well, so that's a big plus. I think it's also, when I'm standing back a bit, you know, we're thinking about the crisis and what... I think it would be terrible not to learn anything from the crisis. So we talked about the paradigm. We thought that, you know, in the past, there would only be one window per annum with the retailers. And to some extent, I think this crisis forced us a bit, you know, to think, "Okay, we need to diversify away from one single source of fish and other prime, by the way." And that's what this crisis has come up with, because things may happen again, you know?
So I think this idea, this concept of going with other high, let's say, high quality, takes a bit of time to get there, to be sustainable and all these things, is good. Price-wise, it's still a bit higher, but we, we also believe that, you know, as we're getting bigger, we'll be in a position also to negotiate, I mean, let's say, prices that are more in line with the rest of the industry. But definitely, we're very pleased with what we have. And we also, very importantly, we also have the ability, in a flexible way, to scale up, you know, depending on what the situation is in the world, to scale up, you know, or, or obviously, or contract.
The one thing as well, to complete on Stéfan's point, I think, the clear requirement of that one is that that had to meet quality and taste requirement that we had on the rest of our lineup. Whether it's, I mean, we had worked to have the MSC certification on that one, the Aquaculture Stewardship Council, I mean, certification, meaning it's safe, it's good, and the consumer response has been really outstanding and into the quality and the taste of the product. So clearly, the diversification is one piece, the cost is another one. But of course, I mean, ultimately ending up on somebody's plate, I mean, taste and safety as well is very important for us.
Yeah. Nomad's faced significant supply chain volatility in the last couple of years, as a lot of food companies have. Can you share your learnings and plans to bolster the resiliency of the supply chain? Are you investing behind capabilities to enable better inventory management and things of that nature?
Yeah. We definitely have taken the learnings coming out of that, where if you recall, we had at some point a pretty challenging situation, I mean, on the post-COVID moment, relating to and even during the beginning of the crisis, I mean, last year, on customer service and performance, and which we knew was effectively a challenge. So we clearly have gone up, let's say, clearly substantial last year, to make sure that we're securing volume, making sure that we have what it takes to produce what was needed. And we did that a year ago, and now we're back to effectively customer service performance that is clearly at the highest level we've ever had, I mean, right now, on an average basis across product lineup. But at the same time, we stepped up effective productivity.
We stepped up effectively and in the work that we do with procurement and our supplier, by looking at means to secure supply in the right quality, in the right location, at the right price as well. So there's a lot of approach we've taken on pure supply management. The other element is Integrated Business Planning, meaning producing what we need for, let's say, the market, and not in excess. And at the same time, driving productivity and making sure that the large plants were focused on scaling, if you will, their production. The small plants were focusing on the product where they were really good at and really managing volume allocation across the different manufacturing sites from that perspective.
But definitely, definitely, we are pretty focused on a very strong ongoing year-in, year-out savings program as we move forward from a supply chain standpoint.
... taking a step back, I mean, what do you see as the advantage of being a pure play frozen food company? I mean, how do you leverage that positioning, and how do you work with retailers to maybe optimize the freezer case with intensifying competition?
It's a great question, Andrew, but I think the, the answer has to be, it depends, because frozen food is great. We would start from a category, quite frankly, my answer would be totally different. Could be we need to diversify away and to move to other categories. Some people are doing this because they have to obviously move from something which delivers something like -5%, to something which is obviously more balanced. Thank God, we are in frozen food. It's a great category, and we are the leader. So these two conditions, good category and leadership, yes, absolutely in terms of value creation, this is a great starting point to create value. So that's that. In some examples, I mentioned UK.
UK, I mean, we can provide everything they need, and it's something that obviously doesn't happen every time. So we have the opportunity then, in terms of M&A, we're learning a lot because we are very focused. Our people don't think about, you know, we are one of the five categories within the company, so which one is really strategic? Frozen food is the strategy. So it does a lot internally, externally, in terms of M&A. I mean, people are very so focused, they know exactly. People know that they have to come to us. So for all these reasons, I think it makes a lot of sense. Does it mean that we never go to something else? Maybe at some stage, but definitely is a good category.
You mentioned earlier, what we'll call undemanding valuation currently, right, of Nomad shares.
Mm-hmm.
What is it that you think, you know, investors are missing about the story? If you think they're even missing anything, or is it just about, you know, seeing your plan around upping M&A and whatnot coming to fruition in terms of pivoting back to volume growth as you exit 2023 into 2024? Or, you know, there's something more fundamental that you think folks are missing, if you had to say?
It's a difficult question because I hate to say, you know, I mean, people don't see everything we see.
We need to read every mind in this audience.
So, it's a very difficult question. I think that today, for example, this is the question, obviously, of "Oh my God, you know, what is the inflection point and how is it going to happen?" And all these things. Might be... It's pure speculation, but above and beyond today, which is, we're just a one-day event, I think what probably people don't see is what this algorithm is, you know, something we've mastered, that delivers a lot of cash.
Yeah.
That can deliver the company very well. When you see this, when you apply this on a multi-year basis, even with a very undemanding multiple, delivers a lot of value compared to where we are right now. You're adding, you know, buyback componet to another component. And so, on top of that, you know, someone told me at some stage, you know, you mentioned that you are very imperfect, that which is interesting. I love that. Provided, obviously, it gives us the ambition to improve the whole thing.
Yeah.
I think this crisis product gave us a lot of improvement, and we believe that within this category, as a leader, there is a lot we can do on top of what we have ahead of us in terms of our three-year plan. So that's that.
Okay.
Then obviously, at the end of the day, well, we have to deliver, we will deliver, and then, you know, people hopefully at some stage will change their minds. But that's the way I'm seeing this thing, this scheme. I'm not very sorry for this, but me, I'm too European from that standpoint, and, you know, whatever. It's my deliver. We're delivering, and we're going to deliver.
Yeah.
Then, people will have to judge.
With, you know, with the way this year shapes up as we move into the back half, being more fourth quarter-
Yeah.
-weighted, right? It may be too early for this, but if you were going to point to anything that would be any green shoots, even early stage, not that we're seeing any scanner data yet, 'cause again, you're just ramping up the promotional spend. But anything that you could point to that says, "Hey, this is what gives us the level of confidence that we're going to see, you know, the volume trends improve sequentially as we go forward." And again, it may be too early for that, but even anything you're seeing, whether it's with your discussions with your retail partners at the retail level or whatever it might be.
Well, the ice cream is the one thing. I mean, I think people will be concerned, "Oh my God, after such a difficult comp, you know, how are you going to deal with this?" And, actually, we're delivering very, very well. So that's one example.
Yeah.
I can see in some countries, like for example, in fish, where we had issues, I mean, affordability, we're starting the program of RGM, which is again, back to price points.
Mm-hmm.
-which is sometimes it's a PPA, sometimes it's even, you know, higher promotion level, where it should be. I think we're starting little by little to see these kind of things, which gives me a lot of confidence we're going to do it. You may remember back in 2015, you know, we were, you know, with something like -11% sales and all these things, and then we had this battle thing.
Yeah.
And then it started in spring 2016 to one by one to move. And I think that's what we're going to see to some extent.
Great. All right. We're out of time. Why don't we cut it off here and head over to the breakout session for any more questions, and thank you, Stéfan and Samy.
Thank you.
All right. We can leave our...