NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 23, 2023

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. My name is Abby. I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the NexPoint Real Estate Finance Fourth Quarter 2022 conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question- and- answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star key followed by the one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one once again. Thank you. I will now turn the conference over to Kristen Thomas. You may begin.

Kristen Thomas
Director of Investor Relations, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Thank you. Good day, everyone, and welcome to NexPoint Real Estate Finance conference call to review the company's results for the fourth quarter ended December 31st, 2022. On the call today are Brian Mitts, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Matt McGraner, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, Matt Goetz, Senior Vice President, Investments and Asset Management, and Paul Richards, Vice President, Originations and Investments. As a reminder, this call is being webcast through the company's website at nref.nexpoint.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on management's current expectations, assumptions, and beliefs.

Listeners should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements and are encouraged to review the company's annual report on Form 10-K and the company's other filings with the SEC for a more complete discussion of risks and other factors that could affect the forward-looking statements. The statements made during the conference call speak only as of today's date and except as required by law, NREF does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. This conference call also includes analysis of non-GAAP financial measures. For a more complete discussion of these non-GAAP financial measures, see the company's presentation that was filed earlier today. I would now like to turn the call over to Brian Mitts. Please go ahead, Brian.

Brian Mitts
EVP and CFO, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Thank you, Kristen. Appreciate everyone joining us today. I'm joined with our entire team here. We'll be giving some commentary. I'm gonna start, briefly discuss our results for the quarter and the year, provide guidance for the first quarter, and then turn it over to the team for some detailed commentary on the portfolio and the lending environment. We'll start with Q4 results, which are as follows. For the fourth quarter, we reported net loss of $0.16 per diluted share compared to net income of $0.92 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2021. The decrease in net income was a result of lower prepayments in Q4 2022 and mark-to-market adjustments on our common stock and CMBS portfolios.

Interest income increased 4.8% over Q4 in 2021, driven by a 166 basis point increase in average yield on investments, offset by lower prepayments in Q4 2022. Interest expense increased 47.5%, driven by a 116 basis point increase in average borrowing rate. Earnings available for distribution was $0.49 per diluted share in Q4, compared to $0.54 per diluted share in the same period of 2021. Cash available for distribution was $0.52 per diluted share in Q4, compared to $0.63 per diluted share in the same period in 2021. Decrease in earnings available for distribution and cash flow for distribution was the result of lower prepayments on our SFR portfolio in Q4.

We paid a dividend of $0.50 per share in the fourth quarter. The board has declared a dividend of $0.50 per share payable for the first quarter. The board also declared a special dividend of $0.185 per share for the first quarter. We intend to pay additional special dividends of $0.185 per quarter for the remainder of 2023. Our dividend in the fourth quarter was 0.98x covered by earnings available for distribution and 1.04x covered by cash available for distribution. Book value per share decreased 2.76% quarter-over-quarter to $20.11 per diluted share as a result of the mark-to-market adjustments in our common stock and CMBS portfolios.

During the quarter, we originated two investments of $19 million of outstanding principal with a combined current yield of 11%. One investment partially redeemed for $10.8 million of outstanding principal. Moving to the full- year results now. For the full year of 2022, we reported net income attributable to common shareholders of $0.51 per diluted share compared to net income of $3.93 per diluted share for the same period of 2021. Again, this was largely driven by lower prepayments on our SFR portfolio during the period and mark-to-market adjustments. Earnings available for distribution was $2.75 per diluted share year-to-date, compared to $1.89 per diluted share in the same period 2021, an increase of 45.5%.

Cash available for distribution was $3.21 per diluted share year-to-date, compared to $2.21 per diluted share in the same period of 2021, an increase of 45.2%. Higher year-over-year earnings available for distribution and cash available for distribution for the year were driven by higher prepayments and requisite prepayment penalties in the first and second quarter of 2022. As of today, the outstanding total portfolio stood at $1.7 billion, composed of 85 investments. Weighted average loan-to-value and debt service coverage ratios for our debt securities were 68.6% and 1.78x respectively. As of today, the company's debt to book value ratio is 2.61x .

Our dividend for the year was 1.38x covered by earnings available for distribution and 1.61x covered by cash available for distribution. Book value per share decreased 6.5% year-over-year to $20.11 per diluted share. Moving to guidance for the first quarter, we're guiding to earnings available for distribution and cash available for distribution as follows: earnings available for distribution, 47% per diluted share at the midpoint, with a range of $0.42 on the low end and $0.52 on the high end. Cash available for distribution of $0.50 per diluted share at the midpoint, with a range of $0.45 per share on the low end and $0.55 per share on the high end.

Decrease in cash available for distribution, earnings available for distribution from the fourth quarter is driven primarily by expected redemptions in the first quarter. With that, let me turn it over to the team for a detailed discussion of the portfolio and credit markets. Matt Goetz.

Matt Goetz
SVP of Investments and Asset Management, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Thanks, Brian. The fourth quarter and full year of 2022 results continued to show strong performance across each of our investments and asset classes. We continue to focus on investment verticals where we believe we have an advantage due to our experience in owning and operating commercial real estate. Our ability to leverage information from being both an owner and operator and lender to commercial real estate investments allows us to find relative value throughout the capital stack, with the goal of delivering higher than average risk-adjusted returns. We continue to believe our investment strategy, focusing on credit investments and stabilized assets, conservative underwriting at low leverage with well-heeled sponsors, will provide consistent and stable value to our shareholders.

During the fourth quarter, the loan portfolio continued to perform strongly and is currently composed of 85 individual assets with approximately $1.7 billion of total outstanding principal. As Brian mentioned, the loan portfolio is 96% residential, with 43% invested in loans collateralized by single-family rental properties and 53% invested in multifamily, primarily via agency CMBS. The remaining 4% of the loan book is life sciences and self-storage. The portfolio's average remaining term is 5.9 years, is 92% stabilized, has a weighted average loan-to-value of 68.6% and an average debt service coverage ratio of 1.78x. The portfolio is geographically diverse, with a bias towards the Southeast and Southwest markets. Texas, Georgia, and Florida continue to be the largest portion of our portfolio at approximately 51%.

One hundred percent of our investments are current. From the beginning of the fourth quarter through today, we were able to close four new investments totaling approximately $34 million, with a weighted average unlevered yield of 11.8%. In summary, we continue to find attractive investment opportunities throughout our target markets and asset classes. We will continue to evaluate these opportunities with the goal of delivering value to our shareholders. I'd now like to hand the call over to Paul Richards.

Paul Richards
VP of Originations and Investments, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Thanks, Matt. During the fourth quarter, the company was not active in the primary or secondary bond market, but continued to source, underwrite, and evaluate potential investment targets daily. We've again stressed the entire CMBS portfolio by shocking cap rates and NOI growth to determine how far cap rates could theoretically widen and interest rates could rise until the portfolio's bond performance would deteriorate. The results are somewhat as expected. The vast majority of the portfolio has demonstrated strong NOI growth over the past few years, and refi risk is minimal even at the stress rates. The long-dated nature of the CMBS B-Piece portfolio provides an appealing backdrop. We firmly believe in the resiliency of the residential space in the current inflationary environment and the safety of these investments.

We continue to be prudently levered on our repo financing at approximately 64% LTV at quarter end and have continuous dialogue with our repo lending partners on the state of the market and the finance portfolio. Lastly, touching on the continued performance of the SFR loan pool. All SFR loans in the portfolio are current performing and displaying strong metrics in terms of rent growth and occupancy as the demand for SFR continues to be robust. The portfolio did not have any SFR pay downs in the fourth quarter. To finalize our prepared remarks before we turn it over for questions, I'd like to turn it back over to Brian Mitts.

Brian Mitts
EVP and CFO, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Thanks, guys. We'll turn it over to questions now.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We will take our first question from Crispin Love with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Crispin Love
Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. First question on prepays. I don't think I saw it in the release, but what were prepays in the quarter versus last quarter? Do you expect prepays to remain lower over the near term?

Paul Richards
VP of Originations and Investments, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

In terms of SFR, yeah, I think we would expect the prepayments probably to be less prevalent, in Q1 of this year, Q2 this year as rates continue to kind of hover at that, you know, 4% type 10-year rate. I think we probably won't see as much action in terms of prepayment, but, you know, we'll continue to evaluate.

Crispin Love
Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

All right. Thanks. Can you just speak to your views on both multifamily and SFR right now? It seems like you're a little bit more bullish on SFR, but just with debt costs at 8%-9%, cap rates still probably at about the 5% range. Are you seeing demand pull back a lot from borrowers, or are there pockets or asset classes where borrowers are still active?

Matt McGraner
EVP and Chief Investment Officer, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Yeah. Hey, it's Matt McGraner. I would say just generally the transaction market, and this isn't a surprise to anyone on this call, is somewhat muted. I think deal volume's down, you know, 70%-80% from a year ago. That also equates to lower demand for borrowings. Obviously refinancings are few and far between also because we don't have a stabilized, you know, tenure terminal rate yet. I think most participants that we're including ourselves on the equity side are waiting for a pause or a pivot or some more clarity from the Fed. Notwithstanding that, the, you know, the greater transaction or excuse me, the greater performance in SFR and multifamily continue to be strong.

Both, in our businesses, at least, we're still seeing, you know, high single-digit, same store and high growth. Notwithstanding the fact that there's no price discovery that the businesses SFR and multi are still performing very well.

Brian Mitts
EVP and CFO, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Thanks, Matt. If I could just squeeze just one last one in. Can you just provide any detail on what you're seeing on multifamily and single- family rents right now and how they're growing on a year-on-year basis, month-on-month as well?

Matt McGraner
EVP and Chief Investment Officer, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Yeah. Year-over-year market rent growth that we're seeing, I'm speaking mostly to the Sun Belt/S mile. Year-over-year growth is roughly 4%-6% so far in the first quarter. That's a little bit skewed because there's a pretty dramatic earn in from the prior- year leases that were signed in, you know, the 15%-25% range. Total rent growth for the year, at least in our portfolio, is kinda 10%-12%. Still, you know, historically healthy. On the SFR side, there's the same dynamic but to a little bit lesser extent. I'd say single- family rents are year-over-year, you know, 6%-8%, with a smaller earn in. Quarter-over-quarter, they're decelerating.

You know, multifamily we finished the year, low single digits. First quarter was, you know, 6%. They are decelerating. Same thing with SFR, but to a lesser extent.

Brian Mitts
EVP and CFO, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Thanks. I appreciate you taking my questions.

Matt McGraner
EVP and Chief Investment Officer, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

You bet.

Operator

We will take our next question from Stephen Laws with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Stephen Laws
Managing Director of Equity Research, Raymond James

Hi. Good morning.

Matt McGraner
EVP and Chief Investment Officer, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Morning, Stephen.

Stephen Laws
Managing Director of Equity Research, Raymond James

Congrats. Yeah, congrats on a nice year. I mean, certainly great seeing a special dividend. It's a pretty material size, special as well. Congrats on that. You know, when you look at your investment pipeline, I know you know, talked about the two equity deals you did in the last quarter. When you look at the pipeline and where you're seeing the best opportunities, you know, as you think about portfolio mix and how that may or may not shift over the year, you know, how is your pipeline building, and where do you guys see the best opportunity to deploy capital kinda as you look out the next six months?

Matt McGraner
EVP and Chief Investment Officer, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Yeah. I think you're gonna see, you're gonna see us water some grass in the life science space. We're underwriting about $400 million-ish of preferred equity in mezz opportunities. When I say mezz, it's not true, you know, kinda 60%-80% of stack, but more kind of 55%-65% of the stack. There's a number of opportunities, both in the lab kinda redevelopment and in the cGMP space, that we're spending a lot of time on. That space is historically, at least on the cGMP side, not well banked. We're, you know, defining a niche in that space as we speak.

I would expect that portion, if you're looking at a pie chart, to expand from where it is. I think it's now roughly 2%- 3% to maybe, you know, 10%- 12%. That's probably the overwhelming majority of what we're doing right now, but we still have a robust pipeline in the private multifamily preferred as well.

Stephen Laws
Managing Director of Equity Research, Raymond James

Great. Thanks, Matt. Brian, maybe a quick answer, you know, any impact of CECL as far as implementation, any change to marks or book value reserve or anything we need to consider with our models?

Brian Mitts
EVP and CFO, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Yeah. In the K, we're gonna have a range of what the impact is gonna be. There'll be a little bit of an impact. The implementation is proceeding well, and we're on target. Starting this quarter, we'll be reporting under CECL.

Stephen Laws
Managing Director of Equity Research, Raymond James

Great. Well, I'll look for that in K, and thanks for the comments this morning.

Brian Mitts
EVP and CFO, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Thank you.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Jade Rahmani with KBW. Your line is open.

Jade Rahmani
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KBW

Thank you very much. Just to follow up to Stephen's question, is there any percentage impact to book value you could comment on this call from CECL?

Brian Mitts
EVP and CFO, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Not as of December 31, but there'll be a little bit of an impact starting this quarter. I think on a go-forward basis, the CECL amount is a little bit more than our loan loss provisions as calculated without CECL.

Jade Rahmani
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KBW

Okay. Thanks very much. In terms of the credit outlook for commercial real estate broadly, since the NexPoint platform can be somewhat opportunistic, do you expect to play in any of the buckets of distress or opportunistic investment that's playing out, you know, whether it be office repositioning, whether it be, you know, I think you mentioned preferreds in multifamily, but how do you feel overall about that kind of segment of the market?

Matt McGraner
EVP and Chief Investment Officer, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Hey, Jade, it's Matt McGraner. I'd say we're pretty hands-off. You know, I do know folks and a lot of smart folks that are playing in, you know, office SASBs or, you know, heavy-weighted office condos and retail that are, you know, pretty significantly distressed. Since we don't have a big operating platform in office or retail or any of those, you know, higher- CapEx type of property types, we're not. You know, I wouldn't put our investors' money in those types of transactions at this point.

Jade Rahmani
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KBW

Okay. Thank you very much. wanted to ask about multifamily. You know, I think five markets constitute about 25% of the 1 million units currently under construction, including, you know, these growth markets such as Phoenix and Austin. You know, what are your thoughts about the market's ability to absorb that supply and whether it creates any issues downstream?

Matt McGraner
EVP and Chief Investment Officer, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

We see supply peaking in either Q4 this year or Q1 of next year. Largely the units are in the Sun Belt/ Smile where we operate, you know, in the NXRT's assets, albeit at a lower price point. There will be some softness in terms of occupancy and rents in our view in the Sun Belt/ Smile with over the next, like I said, year or so. But after that, deliveries fall off a cliff. They're basically going from 387,000 units delivered in the fourth quarter of this year, down to 126,000 units in the fourth quarter of 2024. Then they're, you know, down to in Q3 of 2025 to 12,000 units.

That's the data that we're seeing. There will be, you know, kind of a short-term blip, I think, in terms of softness, in these areas, mostly on the higher end type of product. But I think you want to be an owner of assets and an owner of multifamily in late 2024 and 2025.

Jade Rahmani
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KBW

On the single-family for rent side, how is performance tracking relative to your expectations? There's clearly a moderation in rent growth that we're seeing, as well as an uptick in turnover, which is driving increased expense. There's also still inflation pressures on the expense side. Nevertheless, rents are still high and occupancy is high. Any performance issues on the single-family for rent side?

Brian Mitts
EVP and CFO, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Not in our portfolio, nor in the loan portfolio that we have. you know, as you mentioned, rents are still going up at a pretty good clip, and I think, mitigating some of the other cost increases that we're seeing. NOI growth is still, you know, relatively strong. We don't see any issues in our portfolio with that or in the future.

Jade Rahmani
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KBW

Thanks very much.

Matt McGraner
EVP and Chief Investment Officer, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

Thank you, Jade.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to our presenters for any additional closing remarks.

Brian Mitts
EVP and CFO, NexPoint Real Estate Finance

No, we're all good. Appreciate everyone's time and thoughtful questions. Appreciate it. We'll talk to you next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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