Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Mar 19, 2021

Operator

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Navigator Holdings conference call on the fourth quarter and year-end 2020 financial results. We have with us Mr. David Butters, Executive Chairman, Mr. Harry Deans, Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Niall Nolan, Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Oeyvind Lindeman, Chief Commercial Officer. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session, at which time, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad, and wait for automated message stating your line is open. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. I now pass the floor to one of your speakers, Mr. Butters. Please go ahead, sir.

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Navigator fourth quarter earnings conference call. As we conduct today's conference call, we will be making various forward-looking statements, and these statements include, but they are not limited to, future expectations, plans, and prospects from both a financial and operational perspective. These forward-looking statements are based on management's assumptions, forecasts, and expectations as of today's date and are, as such, subject to material risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ significantly from our forward-looking information financial forecasts. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are included in our annual and quarterly reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Today's call will include comments from Harry Deans, CEO, Niall Nolan, our Chief Financial Officer, and Oeyvind Lindeman, our Chief Commercial Officer. Harry, why don't you take the call from here?

Harry Deans
CEO, Navigator Holdings

Thanks, David. Good morning to everybody on the call. I hope you're all well and keeping safe. It's hard to believe that it's now well over a year since we entered our first lockdown, with most of us thinking it would last for maybe three or four weeks at most. How wrong we were. We are now in the second or third wave of infection. A new, more virulent variant have unfortunately emerged. Thankfully, science and modern medicine have succeeded in rapidly developing effective vaccines to combat this disease. Four vaccines and counting have now been approved and have been rolled out worldwide, albeit the vaccine programs are inconsistent and patchy at best across nations and geographies.

Although for the business environment started to improve in the second half of 2020, it is clear that the global business activity continues to be impacted by COVID-19 flare-ups and the new strains. We expect this overhang to remain until vaccination levels rise significantly. Coming to our Q3 call, we said that we were once again running our business remotely from our home offices worldwide. At that time, we expected that this would be the case well into Q1 2021, if not beyond. We now expect that to last well into Q2 of this year. U.S. LPG production and exports have been remarkably resilient throughout the pandemic, and there was no sign of that changing in Q4. The trend continued into 2021, throughout January and into mid-February, when the southern freeze or Storm Uri brought snow and unseasonably cold weather to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The winter storm caused a huge amount of disruption to upstream, midstream, refinery, and cracker production across the region, with the majority of capacity shutting down. By our estimates, we think at the height of the cold snap, almost 100% of Texas ethylene capacity and approaching 80% of all U.S. olefins capacity was taken offline. Thankfully, this week, we've seen a sharp bounce back in production, with the vast majority of operations already restarted or in the process of being ramped up. I'm pleased to report that the business is again profitable in Q4 for the third quarter in succession. Our performance bounced back after the impact on Q3 of the Gulf hurricanes, with a net income of $3.4 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $32 million, both of which were an improvement on the same period last year.

The quarterly and year-to-date operating revenue, net income, and EBITDA have all improved substantially when compared to 2019. Our Morgan's Point ethylene joint venture terminal, with a fourth quarter EBITDA of $2.1 million, was again profitable for the quarter and indeed finished in profit for the whole year. Utilization rates finished 2020 as we began strongly, with a sharp recovery in the quarter and month-to-month increases. Q4 fleet utilization was much stronger at 91%, with December utilization at numbers last seen in January 2020 of around 95%. January 2021 continued where the old year had left off. Unfortunately, the recovery utilization rates faltered when the southern freeze hit, bringing down the vast majority of U.S. cracker capacity, virtual PDH production, and severely impacting most fractionation capacity in the Gulf. This storm, together with the Mont Belvieu pipeline and subsequent ethylene joint venture terminal force majeures, caused major supply interruptions.

Rapid vessel rescheduling and repositioning enabled us to find alternative employment for the majority of our ethylene vessels. Nevertheless, utilization rates have dipped to around the mid-80% level in February and are expected to stay at those levels for the remainder of Q1. As is typical, the U.S. Gulf cracker issues dramatically reduced available olefin supplies, causing domestic prices to spike and leading to the slamming shut of the healthy ethylene arbitrage to Asia. Despite this blip, nothing has fundamentally changed. There are plentiful supplies of the most advantaged olefin feedstock in the U.S., ethane, which coupled with olefin overcapacity and the efficient ethylene market, will ensure that the arb will recover as units ramp up, the tanks are replenished, and the product again is priced to move. Turning now to crew release.

I am pleased to report we have made further progress on overdue crew changes in Q4 in the face of ever-changing legislation and restrictions. Navigator, together with countless other owners and ship managers, have signed the Neptune Declaration on Seafarer Wellbeing and Crew Changes. This declaration asks that all seafarers are recognized as key workers and requests that a coordinated pan-governmental approach be adopted to facilitate crew changes under internationally agreed health procedures. As testament to the hard work, the dedication, and the strict adherence to the new gold standard hygiene protocols of our seafarers, the Navigator Gas was fortunate not to experience a single confirmed COVID case in any of our 38 vessels in 2020. Talking about safety, we are proud of the efforts we have taken together with our partners to keep people safe, both physically and emotionally, and to keep the product in the tanks.

Our overall fleet safety performance was the best on record. We increased our number of near-miss reports, which is a leading safety indicator, while reducing the frequency of actual incidents. We've now reached a significant milestone, having surpassed 800 days without a lost time incident on our in-house managed fleet. When it comes to safety, though, we all know that you're only as good as your last set of works. We continue to be vigilant. In late December, we completed Phase 2 of our Morgan's Point ethylene JV terminal, when the 30,000 kt refrigerated ethylene storage tank was successfully commissioned and brought into service. This can be seen in the supplemental pack. On the 23rd of December, we reached a crucial milestone when the Navigator Atlas loaded the first cargo directly from the tank. Utilizing the tank facilitates faster vessel loading, with speeds increasing almost tenfold.

This new capability will allow us to increase throughput whilst improving efficiency for our customers as we reach the 1 million tons nameplate capacity. By any metric, this construction project has exceeded all its targets with a safe, on time, and below budget completion. This is all the more impressive as the majority of the construction took place in the middle of the COVID-19 global pandemic. I'd like to take this opportunity to thank everybody involved in the successful delivery of this remarkable and unique project. We are now confident that we'll be able to exceed the terminal 1 million tons nameplate capacity by at least 10% without any significant investment. Overall, Q4 was a good quarter for our business, with momentum building month-on-month. We safely emerged from the Q3 weather headwinds and saw the resulting improvements in our utilization rate.

Our ethylene JV terminal finished the year strongly with an annual throughput of over 420,000 tons, which was an excellent performance when you consider that Phase 1 was not fully commissioned until April, with the refrigerated tank coming on stream in late December. Once the weather-related U.S. olefin production issues and the force majeure subside, this tank capacity will dramatically boost the terminal throughput, bringing with it stable cash flows from our take-or-pay contracts, and this will help offset any volatility in the shipping business. The handysize newbuild vessel order book continues at all-time historical lows, and this can be seen as slide 13 in the supplemental presentation. This, combined with the startup or the imminent startup of the three new North American export facilities, including our own Morgan's Point ethylene joint venture, the Repauno terminal, and the Prince Rupert facility, will help underpin firming vessel utilization rates.

This, coupled with the healthy ethane arbitrage and the reopening of the U.S.-Asia ethane arbitrage, together with increasing demand for ethane and LPG in China, will help boost exports and should bring improved fortunes for both the handysize segment and for Navigator Gas. With those few remarks, I'd like to hand you over to our CFO, Niall Nolan. Niall?

Niall Nolan
CFO, Navigator Holdings

Thanks, Harry, and good morning, all. As Harry has started, with the fourth quarter's results, the company has generated a profit in three of the last four quarters of 2020. That is excluding the unprecedented first quarter, when COVID was initially determined a global pandemic and the world, including the currency markets, collectively held its breath. The $2.4 million profit generated during the fourth quarter compares very favorably against the $2.8 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2019, and indeed, the $1.5 million profit in the prior quarter. That resulted in a small loss of $400,000 for the full year of 2020 against a $16.7 million loss for the full year of 2019.

EBITDA for this fourth quarter was $32 million, with $2.1 million being generated from the operations of the terminal following a weak October as a result of Hurricane Laura, as discussed on our last earnings call, and $29.9 million from the shipping segment. Total operating revenue from the vessels during the quarter was $87.4 million, an increase of $6 million from the $81.4 million generated last quarter, and an increase of $11.3 million from the $76.1 million generated during the fourth quarter of last year. This quarter's $84 million was achieved by an increase in average charter rates, which rose to just over $21,100 per day or $632,500 per month, from around $20,200 per day or $615,000 per month for the fourth quarter of 2019. Average charter rates across the full year averaged $21,500 a day, a relatively small increase overall from the $20,800 per day achieved in 2019.

Utilization improved during the quarter, achieving 91% relative to 78.8% for the prior quarter, and utilization for the full year 2020 was overall the same as 2019 at 86.8%. The Luna Pool earnings, which are aggregated and allocated to pool participants in accordance with pool points, resulted in a net gain to the other participants in the pool of $500,000 during the fourth quarter. Overall, the other participants' vessels contributed $400,000 to our vessels in the Luna Pool since its formation at the beginning of April 2020. Revenue also increased by $1.4 million due to an increased number of days that the vessels were trading during the year as a result of 2020 being a leap year and as a consequence of less days being taken up for vessel dry dockings. Nine vessel dry dockings were undertaken during 2020, taking a total of 224 days.

Two vessels less than planned as a result of delays associated with COVID-19. The cost of these nine dry dockings was approximately $10.2 million. The two delayed dockings, along with 12 others, are planned for 2021 at a total cost of $18 million. As I mentioned later, this is the only planned capital expenditure of the company during 2021. Voyage expenses increased significantly during the quarter, but these are pass-through costs reclaimed by increased operating revenue. The increase is primarily a result of canal transits, both Suez and Panama, which collectively rose from five transits during Q4 of 2019 to 26 for the most recent quarter, and from 22 transits during the full year of 2019 to 71 transits in 2020.

Canal fees are between $100,000 and $150,000 per transit, an increase in number is partly as a result of additional cargoes, principally ethylene, moving between the U.S. Gulf and the Far East. Vessel operating expenses were $28.4 million for the fourth quarter, equating to $8,119 per vessel per day, and $109.5 million for the full year, equating to $7,872 per vessel per day, which is a 2% decrease from the vessel OpEx incurred during the full year 2019. General and administrative costs were $6.3 million for the fourth quarter, similar to that of the fourth quarter of 2019. G&A costs for the year was just under $24 million, a 14.3% increase from the $21 million incurred in 2019.

This $3 million increase principally comprised of $1.2 million for additional audit and internal control-related fees, $1 million on additional terminal insurance, and uncrystallized losses of $400,000 related to the Indonesian Rupiah and terminal formation legal fees of $500,000 . The other income of $100,000 for the fourth quarter and $200,000 for the year relates to management fees received from our management of the Luna Pool. Interest costs for the fourth quarter were $9.1 million, which is almost 26% less than the fourth quarter of last year as a result of reductions in US LIBOR. Similarly, interest costs reduced by 15.5% year-on-year, with interest of $41.1 million for the year to December 2020.

The share of the results of the equity account of joint venture, which is the ethylene terminal, generated a profit of $700,000 for the fourth quarter after a slow start to the quarter in October as a result of the effects of Hurricane Laura discussed earlier. Net income for the fourth quarter, as mentioned, was $3.4 million, or $0.06 per share, compared to a loss for the fourth quarter of 2019 of $2.8 million. This resulted in a small loss for the full year 2020 of $400,000. The balance sheet remains very strong. We have undertaken a number of refinancings this past year to further strengthen it, including the refinancing of the $100 million Norwegian bonds, a $210 million vessel loan refinancing, and a $69 million draw down on the terminal credit facility. Cash at the year-end stood at $59.3 million.

We had a further $51 million available from undrawn facilities for general corporate purposes, including from the terminal facility. During the quarter, we contributed $2 million to the export terminal joint venture from the latter facility, and since the year-end, we have contributed what we believe will be the final $4 million, taking our total contributions for the terminal development to $146.5 million, which is under budget, and as Harry mentioned, delivered on time and safely, all of which is a major achievement in the current environment, or frankly, at any time for a project of this type. The two final contributions to the terminal JV were drawn from the terminal credit facility, along with another $14 million since the year-end for general corporate purposes, resulting in that facility being fully drawn at $69 million.

As the construction of that terminal has now reached practical completion, the terminal facility construction loan has converted into a five-year amortizing term loan, attracting interest at US LIBOR plus 2.75%. Our total debt at December 31st stood at $850.3 million, which includes five vessel-secured facilities, two Norwegian bonds, and the terminal facility. There are no maturities on any of these facilities during this year. With the exception of an $18 million repayment in March next year, there are no maturities on any facility until Q4 2022. The company was, of course, in compliance with all its financial covenants on all its debt facilities at December 31st, 2020. Thank you. I will now hand you over to Oeyvind.

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

Thanks, Niall. During 2020, we safely loaded, transported, and delivered 5.2 million metric tons of liquefied gases to our customers all over the world. Out of the 5.2 million metric tons, 5% of the volume was loaded in South America, 15% from the Middle East, 24% from Europe, 26% from North America, and 29% from Asia. This shows the diversified international nature of our trades, which underpins resilience to fluctuations in any one region. As you have heard from Harry's commentary, North America plays an increasingly important role in the supply and exports of petrochemical handysize cargoes. Petrochemical cargoes constitute about 47% of our total earnings base, and each cargo, on average, takes often more than two months to complete due to the transcontinental nature of these trades. In comparison, LPG cargoes take on average 10 days to complete.

Therefore, any change to petrochemical exports, even a small quantity, can affect the segment, our fleet, and our utilization. The lingering impact of Hurricane Laura, the strongest hurricane on record making landfall in Louisiana, was seen going into October. Towards the second half of October, the U.S. ethylene industry fundamentally normalized, as seen on page nine of the supplemental material, with prices coming down and ethylene exports recommencing. Despite approximately 10 days of plant commissioning during December at the joint venture terminal, it managed to export about 60,000 tons, up from 20,000 tons in October and 10,000 tons less than a high in January 2021. The impact is often first seen in our utilization rates. Our utilization rates went from mid-80% level during October to above 90% for November and December. The change can be really attributed to the normalization of U.S. ethylene pricing and availability.

The market dynamics seem to be working efficiently as prices came down a month after Hurricane Laura. We had 61% market share of all ethylene cargoes being exported from the U.S. during the quarter. This translates into seven voyages or employment for five vessels during the period. LPG exports from handysize vessels from the East Coast increased during the period, going from two cargoes in November to five in December, reaching a peak of 10 cargoes in January. We have not seen such activity from Marcus Hook export complex since back in 2015 and 2016. Most of this LPG went across the Atlantic, translating to a demand of an extra five handysize vessels during the month.

Therefore, any incremental volume, even small, needing handysize transportation, has the potential to influence the supply-demand balance in a segment consisting of only 120 vessels. Conversely, there is a downside to a finely balanced market. As you heard previously, the southern freeze caused unexpected ripple effects through the entire value chain from February onwards. U.S. ethylene price increased dramatically. Asian price followed suit to attract volume from other parts of the world to substitute the shortfall from America. The U.S.-Asia arbitrage closed, resulting in limited exports. The industry is expected to revert back to fundamental oversupply. Well, why? Because ethane flat-lined during both Hurricane Laura and the southern freeze and remains cost-effective for U.S. producers. The silver lining from the southern freeze is twofold to us.

Due to the high U.S. domestic ethylene price, producers are highly motivated to get production back up at full utilization, minimizing time for the industry to return to normal. The same happened post-Hurricane Laura, with ethylene pricing decreasing from a high of $600 a ton in September to $400 a ton at the end of the quarter. Secondly, all the U.S. PDH propane to propylene plants also shut, creating a surprising change. The U.S., almost overnight, went from being a net exporter of propylene to becoming a net importer of propylene. U.S. domestic price of propylene almost tripled to $3,000 a ton. This presented us with an opportunity. Four of our vessels, after completing discharge of butadiene and ethylene in Asia, changed grades and loaded propylene bound for America back across the Pacific. We effectively replaced a total of 150 would be ballast days to 1 50 laden days.

This illustrates that triangulation can be, and is, an upside for our handysize vessels. We are looking forward to the commissioning and startup of both the Repauno export terminal in New Jersey and the Prince Rupert export terminal in British Columbia sometime during the month of April. Our vessels, as well as competitor vessels, are currently being considered by various customers for both terminals and are undergoing technical assessment for compatibility. To sum up, expected normalization of the ethylene supply-demand balance in the U.S. and wrap-up of the two new LPG export terminals should have a positive influence to our segment going into the spring and summer months. Thank you.

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Thank you, Oeyvind, Harry, and Niall. Let's open up the call now to a question-and-answer session.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad and wait for the automated message advising your line is open. Please then state your first and last name before you ask your question. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star and two. Once again, please press star and one if you wish to ask a question and star and two to cancel that request. Thank you. We will now take our first question. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou Securities

Hi there. Omar Nokta from Clarksons Platou Securities.

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Morning.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou Securities

Morning, David. Thank you. Thanks for the overview, and this is a question that you get fairly often, but wanted to ask it. Now with the marine terminal now officially completed, and you've obviously got all your ships on the water, you have no CapEx, and you're now starting to bring in cash without any commitments, how do you think about strategic priorities going forward? What are the top things on your list here as you look ahead into 2021 and into 2022?

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Sure. If you don't mind, I'll try to answer that and share the answer with Harry. Look, you're right. Our major capital expenditures are completed. The terminal is done, which required a fair amount of capital over the last couple of years. Our building program is completed. We're satisfied with the fleet that we have right now. Some renewal will be needed in the future, as with every shipping company. The immediate thing is to maximize what we have right now. That's our first really goal, and we're basically on that course at the moment, and I think it will unfold through 2021. If things go as we expect them, we would think that it would be logical, at some point in the not-too-distant future, to focus on perhaps increasing the capacity of our ethylene joint venture. That terminal can be expanded relatively inexpensively.

As soon as we believe that the market is there. That we've fully exploited the existing capacity and tested its outside reaches, which I think we have yet to do. I think that could be an area where capital could be employed and employed extremely profitably. It's just the most obvious thing that we would think about, as far as new engagement with capital. Harry, do you have anything that you would add to that?

Harry Deans
CEO, Navigator Holdings

Thanks, David. Yeah, no, I fully concur. I think the other thing, Omar, is you heard in my remarks that we're confident we can get 10% now out of the terminal, hopefully we can get a bit more as well. We just need to run at consistent rates for a long enough period to see how much more we can get out of the terminal. Without spending any major CapEx at all, we're going to maximize what we've got, as David said. The other thing I guess I would add is that we're always on the lookout for any consolidation or any other things we can do in the marketplace, obviously at the right price. We continue to assess that. As David mentioned that our fleet, we will have to do some fleet renewal in the future as some of our fleet gets older.

That's just the way it works in this industry. We're equally looking to see if there's any investments we can make in our vessels to make them more sustainable and to reduce the CO2 and the carbon footprint. That's all I had to add, David.

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Okay. Thank you, Harry. Well, I think that's probably all we could say about right at the moment about future capital expenditures.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou Securities

Thanks, David and Harry. That's clear. Maybe just a follow-up. Wanted to ask about the terminal and the force majeure. Just generally, just a question in this case, for instance, the declaration of force majeure, for instance, does that cancel altogether the flow that would have been used in the incoming revenue for the JV? Or does sort of the contract get extended by that one or two months where the pipeline wasn't operable?

Harry Deans
CEO, Navigator Holdings

David, do you want me to answer that? Yeah. Thanks, Omar. Unfortunately, coming from the chemical industry, I have a long history in force majeure as either declaring them or being on the receiving end of them. I know, finally how it works. Basically, the force majeure suspends the contract for that period. It doesn't extend it just suspends it. It means that the whoever declares force majeure has got an obligation to go out and try and find alternative supplies as quickly as possible and then get back onto contractual terms again. It doesn't extend it just suspends it. Does that answer your question, Omar?

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou Securities

It does. Thank you. No, that's clear. I guess you mentioned the, it's been remedied, the mechanical issue and that scheduled startup is for second half of March. Has it already started up, or is it still planned to be for second half of March?

Harry Deans
CEO, Navigator Holdings

Yeah. Hi, thanks, Omar. Yeah, we're starting up as we speak. There was a mechanical integrity issue on the pipeline that leads from the caverns to our terminal. I'm glad to say that we are commissioning and starting up as we speak. We're hoping to see product flowing imminently.

Omar Nokta
Analyst, Clarksons Platou Securities

Okay. Thank you. Very good. I'll leave it at that. Thanks, guys.

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Thanks, Omar.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Hey, guys, it's Sean Morgan from Evercore.

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Yeah.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Good morning. To follow up on Omar's question in regards to the JV terminal and the contribution in the constraints. I think it's been a little difficult to sort of accurately predict how that's going to be, in part because it's just, it's coming in and sort of below the operating line. When I sort of look at the results you guys had last quarter versus this quarter and sort of thinking about the ramp that at least I was expecting, is that more of like the commodity arbitrage dictating that decline from 3Q, or is that disruption from the hurricane? Also given what we know now about the disruption, mechanical disruption in Q1 2021, sort of how do you think about just kind of that contribution that we're gonna be seeing?

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Oeyvind, do you want to talk about the market piece, and then maybe Niall can follow up on the financials?

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

Sean, as we mentioned in some of the commentary, the real reason of October reduction in utilization was the effect of the Hurricane Laura. It was only 20,000 tons of ethylene from the terminal during that period. Our utilization, I'm talking shipping now, went up in November and December to above 90%. That is majority is because of increased output lifted from the terminal. In November into December, it was 60,000 tons in December, and it was even more in January. That has a positive impact on the shipping side. There are take-or-pay contracts and all things being equal in a normal world whereby U.S. pricing is attractive internationally. You see that flow going probably more than what the TSA agreement or the contract is building there. That's the relationship.

Underneath it all is the take-or-pay concept. Arbitrage opportunity really drives the additional tons, which is obviously beneficial on the shipping side.

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Did that explain that, Sean?

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Yeah. Not entirely. What's driving the negative decline? Is it the commodity arbitrage, or was it the volumes?

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

There's no downside on the commodity pricing because of the take-or-pay contracts.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Okay. It was volumes then?

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Yeah, volumes.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Okay. Got it.

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

In the fourth quarter, there were two impacts on volumes. The first was Hurricane Laura, that shut things down, and there just wasn't incremental volumes to take over. The second part was the fact that in December, we had to fill the storage tanks. We stopped exporting, loading into ships directly from the chiller. We loaded from the chiller into the storage tanks.

For a period of time during December, there were no volumes to export because they were being used to fill the tanks. By the end of December, those tanks were filled, and in January, we began what we would call a normalized function, and it worked just supremely well during January, where volume and everything just was the way it should be. Again, unfortunately, you'll see a distortion again in the first quarter of 2021, as you pointed out, simply because of the deep freeze that occurred in the southern part of the U.S. The commodity change, if there's a wide gap in the commodity arbitrage, that impact will only occur and be seen on incremental volumes over and above those committed on the long-term take-or-pay basis.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Got you. Yeah. Okay. I didn't realize filling the tanks was going to actually disrupt the flow of exports. I thought that could be done simultaneously. That actually clears it up quite well. And then just also on the conversion of the finance facility for the construction of the JV terminal. When that converts to the term loan, is that a 25 basis point step up in interest?

Niall Nolan
CFO, Navigator Holdings

Yes, it is. It went from U.S. LIBOR + 2.5% to 2.75%.

Sean Morgan
Analyst, Evercore

Okay. That's interesting because, yeah, I would imagine with the construction done, it would be less risky. That's good to know. Okay, thanks. That's all I have.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. We will now take our next question. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Howdy, gentlemen. It's Randy Giveans at Jefferies. How are you?

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Hey, Randy.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Hey. On the utilization, impressive number there, 91% for the fourth quarter. That said, you mentioned the Texas freeze, which we call froze-it here in Houston. How much of an impact to utilization should we expect from those winter storms? What should we expect utilization for in the first quarter of 2021? How has this kind of improved utilization impacted the handysize shipping rates?

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

Hi, Randy. I hope it's not as cold in Houston as it was.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

It's warming up, thanks.

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

The ripple effects are still felt, even though we're in the middle of March. To your question, January was strong, similar to December, middle 90%. Then as Harry mentioned in his commentary, reverting back to the mid-80s% during the remaining two. Back to where we were at in October last year.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Got it. Full quarter weighted seems like a high 80s%.

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

It's not if you compare to third quarter, where Niall mentioned we have sub 80%. It doesn't look like that. That was a low point in 2020, which we are not seeing at the moment.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Right. All right. Mid to high 80s% for the first quarter. Sounds fair.

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

Yeah.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

In terms of rates?

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

It's kind of sideways. We peg ourselves against the Clarkson 12-month time charter assessment. Since January, it has reduced slightly from, say, $700 to $680. We haven't dropped as much as some of the other segments which are more volatile. It's around about that level. In terms of 12-month charters, between $650-$680. Spot markets fluctuate. Some are higher, some are lower. It all depends.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

All right. Sounds good.

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

The point is that it is not a crash like you're seeing in some of the larger segments.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Sure. Sure. Understandably so. All right, I guess while I have you, slide 12. You show both Repauno and the Pembina set to start in the coming weeks or maybe months. Have you yet agreed to any exports or fixtures out of either project in the near term?

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

As far as we are aware, none has completed yet. There are discussions, negotiations ongoing, as I mentioned in my commentary, that vessels are being screened at both locations for the compatibility. Both terminals, commercially and operationally, are gearing up for commencing exports in April, which is next month. We've been talking about these two particular infrastructure projects for a while, but they're just around the corner, and we expect a positive influence once they get up and going.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Got it. All right. It sounds like by this time next call, we might have some fixtures that have been completed. Is that a fair assumption?

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

All going well, the handysize fixtures should be in the books. Time will tell who will do them, but for the handysize segment, which obviously is a large part of it is absolutely.

Randy Giveans
Analyst, Jefferies

Yep. Noted. Good deal. Well, that is it for me. Thanks, fellas.

Oeyvind Lindeman
Chief Commercial Officer, Navigator Holdings

Thank you.

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. As a final reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad.

David Butters
Executive Chairman, Navigator Holdings

Okay. If there are no further questions, I thank everyone for joining us this morning and look forward to our next call.

Operator

Thank you very much. This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.