Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the ON Semiconductor 4th Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. I would like to hand the conference over to one of your speakers today, Parag Agarwal, Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.
Thank you, Michelle. Good morning Thank you for joining ON Semiconductor Corporation's 4th quarter 2020 quarterly results conference call. I'm joined today by Hassan Akhouri, and our President and CEO and Bernard Gutmann, our CFO. This call is being webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.aounceemic.com. A replay of this webcast along with our 2024 quarter earnings release will be available on our website approximately 1 hour following this conference call and a recorded webcast will be available for approximately 30 days following this conference call.
Additional information related to our end markets, business segments, geographies, channels, share count and 2021 fiscal calendar are also posted on our website. Our earnings release and this presentation include certain non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non GAAP financial measures with the most directly comparable measures under GAAP are also included in our earnings release, which is posted separately on our website in the Investor Relations section. During the course of this conference call, We will make projections or other forward looking statements regarding our future events or future financial projections of the company, The words believe, estimate, project, anticipate, intend, may, expect, will, plan, should or similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. We wish to caution that such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from projections.
Important factors which can affect our business, Including factors that could cause actual results to differ from our forward looking statements are described in our Form 10 ks, thank yous and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Additional factors are described in our earnings release for Q4 of 2020. Our estimates or other forward looking statements may change and the company assumes no obligation to update forward looking statements We have changed the date for our Analyst Day. Now, we plan to host our Analyst Day on August 5, 5th of this year instead of March 5th. With the recent change in leadership of the company, we believe that We will need we will be able to provide a firm and complete view of our updated strategy and financial targets on August 5.
Now, let me turn it over to Hassan. Hassan?
Thank you, Parag, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I want to start by expressing how excited I am to be part of the storied company and its incredibly talented and motivated workforce. I will start by sharing with you initial observations and updating you on the process we will use to evolve the future strategy and direction of the company. I will then address our Q4 2020 results and turn the call over to Bernard to discuss financials and forward looking guidance. I took the role as CEO because I could clearly see the tremendous potential we have, even as I looked at it from the outside.
Having been in the role for a few months now, I can see a company with outstanding assets, including a highly talented and motivated workforce, Intellectual property, sales channels, products, customer relationships, brand and industry leading operational prowess to name a few. We are focused on the right markets, which are the fastest growing semiconductor end markets with solid margin potential. I'm excited about the opportunities we have in front of us to maximize the value for our shareholders, customers and employees. As I dove deeper into the company during the last 8 weeks, I have been positively surprised and have grown increasingly bullish about our prospects. The opportunities in front of us far exceed my initial expectations and I am working with my team to turn these opportunities into a strategy with a credible execution plan.
I'm very confident that we will be able to deliver the full potential of the company to our stakeholders. At this time, I don't have all the answers to what the future strategy and direction of the company will be. However, I will walk you through the process we will be following to get there and be able to share the details with you at our Analyst Day in August. It should come as no surprise that our primary value driver will come from our gross margin expansion initiative. At this time, we aim to maintain the over market revenue growth in
our strategic markets,
while being opportunistic in others. We will focus on maximizing free cash flow to delever our balance sheet and set us up to remain a consolidator. To achieve our objective of maximizing shareholder value, we are ready to make substantial changes in our strategy, business and organization. We have begun the process of reevaluating our current product portfolio and our investments across the board. We will reallocate investments and resources to accelerate our growth in high margin businesses away from non differentiated products and markets, which have had a historically low margin profile.
We will reduce complexity, streamline the organization and improve efficiencies. After realigning our investments with our products and market strategy, we will double down on R and D to accelerate growth and margin expansion. We will rationalize our manufacturing footprint to align with our investment priorities and new corporate strategy. Our primary goal is to reduce volatility in our margins And maximize return on our manufacturing investments. Our product strategy will drive our manufacturing footprint and capital investments.
We intend to transition to a lighter fab model in which our margins are not as heavily influenced by our fab loadings. As you can already tell, we have hit the ground running and we are making progress in a short period of time. We will provide you with greater insight into our strategy and targets at our Analyst Day on August 5. In the meantime, we plan to continue to provide updates as we make progress. Now moving on to the Q4 2020 results.
Revenue for the Q4 of 2020 was $1,450,000,000 an increase of 3% year over year. We saw a steep improvement in demand in the 4th quarter and the momentum has continued thus far in the current quarter. The surge in demand is driven by a broad based improvement in global macroeconomic conditions and lean channel and end market inventories. The automotive end market had the steepest recovery in the 4th quarter. Based on current demand trend and the global macro outlook, We expect to continue to see above seasonal demand trends in the near term.
On the supply side, we have been able to manage our customers' requirements For products thus far, as semiconductor vendor increased supply and customers fulfill pent up demand, the temporary supply demand imbalance should subside in a few quarters. Let me discuss a few highlights of our key strategic end markets starting with automotive. Revenue for the automotive market in Q4 twenty 2020 was a record $491,000,000 and represented 34% of our revenue and an increase of 6% from Q4 of 20 global automotive production unit, which declined by 16% over the same period. This significant outperformance was driven by increasing content for our products and fastest growing applications in the automotive market. Our design win funnel continues to expand.
We won ADAS and viewing sockets on many of the recently announced platforms. We also secured a win for our LiDAR products with a European automotive OEM. We expect this win to ramp later this year. Another significant design during the Q4 was with a major Tier 1 for our sensor module, which We continue to see strong momentum for our silicon carbide and IGBT product for electric vehicles and expect to see strong ramp in our EV related revenue with various models going production in 2020 2022. The industrial end market, which includes military, aerospace and medical, Contributed revenue of $384,000,000 in the Q4 of 2020 at 24% of our revenue.
Year over year, our 4th quarter industrial revenue increased by 2%. This increase was driven by broad based pickup in global industrial activity, partially offset by geopolitical issues related to a specific customer. In the industrial end market, we continue to see strong momentum for our power modules in Our customer base for power semiconductor and alternative energy has expanded by approximately 50% in 2020. We expect to see strong growth in this business as the U. S.
Administration is focused on the reduction in global carbon emissions. We are seeing strong traction for machine vision, factory automation applications with our XIXXGS family of image sensors. In the communications end market, we expect strong growth in 2021 for 5 gs related revenue driven by increased 5 gs capital expenditure by carriers. Now, I will turn the call over to Bernard to provide additional details on our financials and guidance. Bernard?
Thank you, Hassan. During the Q4 of 2020, we saw continuing recovery in business conditions driven by robust Growth in global economic activity. Border activity accelerated sharply across most end markets as customers are ramping production and replenishing Inventories to meet a steep increase in end market demand. Along with a strong broad based recovery in macroeconomic conditions, Secular megatrends in automotive, industrial and cloud power markets continue to drive our business. Gross margin improvement is the primary strategic priority for the company.
As Hassan indicated in his remarks, We are going through a detailed review of our product portfolio. The primary objective is to reallocate our capital to drive margin expansion and growth. Our revised product strategy will determine our capital expenditures and investments in other resources needed to support the business. We will update you with our progress as we go through the process. We are on track with our manufacturing consolidation plan And these actions are ongoing with various parties regarding the previously announced intended sales of our fabs in Belgium And Nikata, Japan.
We have closed our operations and sold the fab in Rochester, Europe, and we should begin to realize annual savings of $15,000,000 starting in the Q1 of 2021. Now let me provide you additional details on our results. All revenue for the Q4 of 2020 was $1,450,000,000 an increase of 3% as compared to revenue of 1.4 $1,000,000,000 in the Q4 of 2019. The year over year increase in revenue was driven by growth in our key strategic end markets. GAAP net income for the Q4 was $0.21 per diluted share as compared to a net income of $0.14 per diluted share in the Q4 of 2019.
Non GAAP net income for the Q4 of 2020 was $0.35 per diluted share as compared to $0.30 per diluted share in the Q4 of 2019. GAAP and non GAAP gross margin for the Q4 of 2020 were 34.4% as compared to 34.6% in the Q4 of 2019. The year over year decline in gross margin was driven primarily by a weakening U. S. Dollar against currencies in most regions in which we operate our manufacturing facilities.
Our GAAP operating margin for the Q4 of 2020 was 11.6% as compared to 9.9% in the 4th quarter of 2019. Our non GAAP operating margin for the Q4 of 2020 was 14.2% as compared to 12.3% in the Q4 of 2019. The The year over year increase in operating margin was driven largely by lower operating expenses. GAAP operating expenses for the Q4 of 2020 were $329,600,000 as compared to $346,800,000 in the Q4 of 2019. Non GAAP operating expenses for the Q4 of 2020 were $292,400,000 as compared to $313,600,000 In the Q4 of 2019, the year over year decrease in non GAAP operating expenses was driven primarily by restructuring and cost saving measures undertaken by the company.
4th quarter 2023 cash flow was $284,000,000 and operating cash flow was $400,000,000 Full year 2023 cash flow increased to $501,000,000 from $160,000,000 in 2019 despite a 5% decline in revenue. Capital expenditures for the Q4 of 2020 were $116,400,000 which equates to a capital intensity of 8%. As indicated previously, we are directing most of our capital expenditures We're enabling our 300 millimeter capability of the East Fishkill fab. Total capital expenditures for 2020 were 384,000,000 We exited the Q4 of 2020 with cash and cash equivalents of $1,081,000,000 as compared to $1,654,000,000 at the end of the Q3 of 2020. The decline in our cash balance was primarily related The repayment of our 2020 convertible note principal at maturity in December 2020.
At the end of the Q4 of 2020, days of inventory on hand were 120 days, down 13 days as compared to 133 days in the Q3 of 2020. At this time, we're comfortable with the level of our balance sheet inventory. In the Q4 of 2020, Distribution inventories decreased marginally as sales through the distribution channels increased significantly quarter over quarter. Distribution inventories are within our target range of 11 to 13 weeks. Now let me provide you an update on the performance by our business units, Starting with Power Solutions Group or PSG.
Revenue for PSG for the Q4 was $760,000,000 Revenue for the Advanced Solutions Group or ASG for the 4th quarter was $522,000,000 and revenue for our Intelligent Moving on to guidance based on product booking trends, backlog levels And estimated current levels, we anticipate that total On Semiconductor revenue will be in the range of $1,410,000,000 to 1,510,000,000 in the Q1 of 2021. For the Q1 of 2021, we expect GAAP and non GAAP gross margin Between 34.1% and 36.1 percent. We expect total GAAP operating expenses for the Q1 of 2021 of $345,000,000 to $360,000,000 Our GAAP operating expenses include the amortization of intangibles, Restructuring, asset impairments and other charges, which are expected to be in the $32,000,000 to $36,000,000 range. We expect total non GAAP operating expenses of $313,000,000 to $327,000,000 in the Q1. The expected increase in our 1st quarter operating expenses as compared to those in the 4th quarter is driven by the expected accrual for variable compensation in anticipation of a strong financial performance in 2021 and is in line with the $25,000,000 to $30,000,000 increase or shadow in the last quarter's earnings call's prepared remarks.
In our 2020 operating expenses, the variable component of compensation was not significant. For the Q1 of 2021, we anticipate GAAP net other income and expense, including interest expense, will be an expense of $34,000,000 to $37,000,000 which includes the non cash interest expense of $45,000,000 We anticipate our non GAAP net other income and expenses, including interest expense, will be an expense of $30,000,000 to $32,000,000 Net cash paid for income taxes in the Q1 of 2021 is expected to be in the $18,000,000 to $24,000,000 For 2021, we expect cash paid for income taxes to be in the range of $80,000,000 to $90,000,000 We expect total capital expenditures of $90,000,000 to $100,000,000 in the Q1 of 2021. We expect Share based compensation of $15,000,000 to $17,000,000 in the Q1 of 2021, of which approximately $3,000,000 is expected to be in cost of goods sold and the remaining amount is expected to be in operating expenses. This expense is included in our non GAAP financial measures. Our GAAP diluted share count for the Q1 of 2021 is expected to be 438000000 to 439000000 shares based on our current stock price.
Our non GAAP diluted share count for the Q1 of 2021 is expected to be 431,000,000 shares based on our current stock price. Further details on share count and earnings per share calculations are provided regularly in our quarterly and annual reports on Form 10Q and 10 ks respectively. I would like to end my comments on a personal note. As you are all aware, I have decided to retire after 39 years with ON Semiconductor and its predecessor company. It has truly been an honor to serve the company and its shareholders, employers and customers for all these years.
I have enjoyed interacting with all of you over the years. You have kept me on my toes and always helped me strive to do better at my job. ON Semiconductor has a very bright future and the company is well positioned to deliver significant value to its shareholders, customers and employees. With that, I would like to start the Q and A session. Thank you.
And Michel, please open the line for questions.
Thank Our first question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thanks for helping me ask a question. And first, Bernard, Great working with you all the years. Congrats on the retirement. My first question is for Hassan.
You mentioned a laundry list of actions you're going to take Structurally for the company, I know you're not going to go into exceedingly detailed levels before the analyst meeting in August, but I wondered how you're Balancing the gross margin side versus the OpEx and operating margin side. You mentioned about doubling down on R and D. How do you balance The gross margin versus the operating margin priority for the company.
Sure, Ross. Let me give you kind of how the approach has been We started doing that work. At a high level, you can think about it as self funding, meaning I don't like to dabble. Whether we say we're working on it or not, if we are creating products in low margin businesses or markets that are not our Strategic markets, those investments are going to stop. That's going to release capital for us to reinvest and that's where the doubling down.
So don't think about it as we're going to double down and OpEx is going to click up beyond the level. We're going to actually reallocate OpEx. And with the simplicity and removing complexity on the way we run our operations here, that's going to relieve A lot of more capital for us to reinvest. So I'm not worried about having enough investments that we can reallocate while maintaining at or below our OpEx, which obviously will drive our operating margin favorably.
Thanks for the details on that. And I guess one for either you or Bernard. The guidance is better than seasonal. You said that's going to continue for a bit. Was the better than seasonal comment just about the Q1 or was it longer than that?
And any color between the different segments to get to your guidance for the Q1?
Yes, this is Hassane again. Our focus right now is in the Q1. Obviously, we're coming out of a very Lean inventory both at our customers and in the supply chain. So that's the rebind you're seeing in Q1 better than seasonal. I remain cautiously optimistic for the rest of the year, but it's too soon to call the rest of the year at this point.
In the prepared remarks, We talked about it may take a few quarters to kind of stabilize the supply and demand situation and that's when we'll get a little bit more clarity. Obviously, if you've seen the news, a lot of that strength is coming from automotive and we see it the same way, which is a big market and a focused market for us. So we're watching it closely, but I remain cautiously optimistic until we get out of the trend of supply demand imbalance.
Thank you.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Chris Danley with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thanks, guys. First of all, Bernard, congratulations, cunado. I'm jealous. First question It's just on OpEx. I guess what's the thought process of an upfront payment to everybody in front of the upturn versus Afterwards and is this should we consider this as the new baseline for OpEx or could it trend down after this?
So it is not an upfront payment. It is an accrual, an accounting accrual as we have an annual plan which actually would cash wise stay Next year in February if we achieve the numbers. So this is just an accounting approval recognizing the liability we are creating with delivering results That means the new plan?
Yes. I mean, let me just put that stake in the ground. We are 100% Focused on pay for performance. We have to accrue throughout the year, but pay will occur in 2022 in the first Quarter just like it did this time for the prior year. So it's after the fact.
We don't do any advance planning as far as
To your question about the trend on OpEx, we believe we have a step function increase. And pretty much after that, it should be fairly steady.
Okay, great. Thanks, Bernard. And for my follow-up, hey, Hassane, you mentioned you're going to take a look at the product lines. I guess what sort of rough percentage of revenue are we talking about that's being targeted as far as these Low margin product lines and can you shed any light on what are these low margin product lines? Is it some MOSFETs or IGBTs or some other sort of like Pass the types of products you guys have?
Sure. It's too soon to tell as far as to give you the percent, because literally I am looking at everything. But the way I look at it is strategic alignment to our end market, strategic alignment to our margin target And really strategic alignment to the growth that we want to set for the company, both in gross margin expansion and revenue. So to put a percent on how much is that, it's hard to tell. But it's not going to be like you were expecting of IGBT or A fact of whatever kind, because we're not looking at it as just a product family.
I'll give you an example. We have IGBTs that goes into EV. I love that. That's a growth market. It's good margin and we have a very good position in that market.
That's going to be, but then obviously a growth product and market for us. But IGBT in a low margin Consumer, that is not going to be an investment for us. So that's the surgical approach we are actually proceeding in order to get the right balance We talked about already.
Got it. That makes sense. Thanks, guys. Thank you.
Thank you. And our next Question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks very much for taking the question. And Bernard, thank you for all the help. Hassan, you talked about You guys addressing demand so far, being pretty successful in addressing demand so far. But can you speak To where lead times are for your business today versus 3 months ago, 6 months ago and sort of related to that, How is the pricing outlook for your business over the next 6 to 12 months in relation to what you guys have seen over the past few years?
So let me address the lead times. They have been inching up. They are still in the mid teens but moving upwards in direction.
Yes. For the pricing, we see a healthy pricing environment. Obviously, there are price increases that we have incurred from our supply chain And we are working with customers to pass those on down the supply chain from where we are. There are, of course, with supply and demand, we are always reviewing our pricing posture, and we're doing that as we speak. It's not just only let me riff a little bit on it's not just the supply and demand.
We do have high value products and those high value products demand a higher margin. So, I'm reviewing all our pricing discipline outside of just the supply and demand, and that's something you should see from us moving forward as a Structural change we're implementing in the company, where that's going to get us and where it's going to land as far as tangible result that I can Credibly talk to you. That's going to be in the August meeting because that will give me enough runway to establish that process and see the impact.
Great. Thank you. And then as a quick follow-up, just on sort of the long term model. Again, I appreciate You're not going to preview your August Analyst Day, but when you look at some of the numbers that Keith and Bernard put up During their last Investor Day, mid single digit revenue growth, 43% gross margin, 22% to 21% OpEx intensity, given what you've seen so far Hassan, where do your views differ the most? Is it more on the growth side?
Is it more on the margin side? Is it both? Any color would be super helpful. Thank you.
Look, it's not about the top line or gross margin. My focus is On the timing of it, that's kind of where I'm putting my energy right now. And then we will talk about what does that yield on top line and how quickly do we get to the I'm going to call it the 43 because that's the only number That is available externally. A lot of people ask me what should we be looking for as far as financial model. And my answer, and I'll reiterate it here, just Just hold us accountable to whatever we the company has done already, even though it was not Pete personally until I stand in front of all of you in August and change it.
But for now, just hold us accountable to the target and the financial model that we have made available already as a company.
Thanks so much.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Raja Gill with Needham. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you and best of luck Bernard and congrats Hassane on the new role. Hassane, a question on The 300 millimeter, the transition that's been undergoing for a couple of years, any thoughts on how that progress Is happening and what are your thoughts on that transition to 300 millimeter? Are there steps that you want Try to accelerate that transition and what would they be?
Sure. Obviously, 300 millimeter transition It is a transition that we need as a company. We have it internally and the company has already set itself on a path To have an in source fab for that, there's obviously we're looking at the baseline to see if we need more, how do we get it? It doesn't necessarily mean we're going to have a multitude of fabs at the 12 inches It's going to be driven to answer your question more directly, It's going to be driven by the product portfolio that we're going to have and we want to be investing in over the next 5 years and that's part of the portfolio rationalization. I can't really address a need for a manufacturing footprint until I know exactly what we want to do, Where the margin is going to come from and what the manufacturing footprint needed in order to support it inside or outside.
So that's the work we're doing on right now. However, we do have the East Fishkill engagement. We have been making progress On it, where products are taping out, some products are already sampling. So technology development and product move into that fab is ongoing and I'm And I'm happy with where we are. To accelerate is going to be dependent on, as I mentioned, product and margin focus, And that's going to be with the capital associated with it.
That's the work in progress we have to do. We have not completed yet, but I expect it to be complete by the time I Give an updated financial model in the August meeting, which will include capital and manufacturing footprint targets.
And for my follow-up, Hassane, you talked about product rationalization and I think you had mentioned Achieving that either through potentially M and A or divestment and maybe correct me if that's not the case. But Wondering how you would think about product rationalization and with respect to those 2 possible strategies?
Sure. But it's not those are obviously part of the strategy, but that's not the one that's going to get you the most impact. The one that's going to get you the most impact is Literally, defocusing on products that we don't see bring us any whether it's top line growth or margin expansion. And by defocusing, there are multiple ways you put it in harvest. You EOL it.
It's short lived. Talk about EOL, anywhere from 6 months to 18 months, Depending on engagement with the customer as far as when we're going to exit that business, we'll notify customers, we'll support them in a transition Transition to our products, which are better margin structure, so we will force a conversion or We will just exit the business and exit that customer and the top line and we're looking at everything equally. Where is that going to be as far as divesting? If there is a business that we believe has value for somebody outside of On Semiconductor, we will monetize it So, like I mentioned, we will monetize it through a divestiture. Leading up to the 3rd tenant, which is The M and A, M and A just going to be a complementary view of what we are able to do with our portfolio rationalization.
Once we have a portfolio footprint that we like and the market end market that we want, then M and A would be an inorganic growth within these markets. We're not going to use M and A to solve our internal issues, because then you're just creating chaos after chaos. We're going to rationalize our internal Markets, our internal portfolio, that M and A will just strengthen that posture.
That makes a ton
of sense. Congrats. Thank you.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good morning. Thanks and congrats Bernard. Hassan, it's kind of an interesting call, right, because you guys are clearly going to put out Longer term targets in August, but folks are poking and broadening you trying to get a little bit of hint about where that's going. But I might just ask a couple of questions The company a little bit more towards being fab light and obviously the product portfolio will I would imagine mostly inform that decision, but No secret the U.
S. Government is thinking about incentivizing semiconductor manufacturing and R and D in the state. So I wonder, I guess, first question is how much is that going to inform your decision? And then the second piece is Around the channel, Texan is taking an interesting strategy of going more direct. You guys have a pretty broad distributor footprint.
How are you thinking about that in terms of making your decisions going forward? Thank you.
Sure. Let me tackle the fablight comment I made. So, fab lite obviously is an analog range that goes between fabless and only internal manufacturing. So where we are, a lighter fab, which means we're going to be shrinking our manufacturing footprint from where we are today. So that's the fablight comment and that's going to be a result of what we need to manufacture internally versus what there are foundries that Do a better job at the manufacturing than we do.
And that's the balance we're going to be doing and we started that effort. Obviously, there was a management And the results and the reporting, I do real time. From the government side of it, Listen, we're going to make the best decision for our company that drives shareholder value. That's the first and foremost decision making. If at the end of that first tranche of decisions, there's alignment with where the administration is going or what state we are in, That's great, but we're not going to make a short term decision based on the current politics that will It hinder us from potentially achieving our maximum value creation that we could otherwise.
So our focus is on value creation as we see it for the company, our shareholder, our customers and our employees, and then we'll figure out how we land in the politics at that time. From the distribution and other work we have been doing is the channel rationalization, just like the portfolio. Once you know where you want to grow and how aggressively you want to grow and which market, you're going to partner with the distributors that are strong indeed In that same arena you want to play in, and that's going to be an outcome of the portfolio. And that's why I keep going back to the portfolio Work we're doing is going to drive a lot of those dependencies, because it's all interlocked, but it definitely starts with a portfolio rationalization, The market and the strategy, everything else is really how do you execute the strategy to the best you can.
Thanks very much. All the best as you put things together and excited to see what comes. Thanks guys.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, Hassan and Bernard. Good quarter and guide here. Bernard, congratulations on a great career. Just a couple of questions.
Just wondering on the automotive side, you mentioned sensor module and some pickup on the electric vehicle side. Is your guide still for longer term 9% to 11% above what the automotive market growth is? Or do
you see upside based on some
of the wins that you have here? Then I have a follow-up.
We basically think it's high single digits above the SAAR levels And we actually confirmed that with our 2020 performance.
Got it.
And Hassan, you made a comment on lean inventory. Can you give us some level? Is that like 2 to 3 weeks of inventory versus normal like 4 to 6 weeks or What are the inventory levels here? Thanks.
No. Yes. So, Vijay, I can't give you a target right now. I'm looking at it Because not all businesses, obviously, we have here are created equal. Some of them need more inventory than others.
And there's going to be a lot of ins and outs, to be fair. As we figure out our as I mentioned before, our EOL, some bridge Build or some fab moves that we need to make, that's going to kind of put a bumps in the road for our inventory and we're going to manage it as such. But there's going to be a few ins and outs before we get to a model. So I'll be ready to give you a model where we want to In the August meeting, but between now and then, I'm really going to be opportunistic about what we need to do in order to Quickly shift to where I want us to be as a company, whether it's portfolio or manufacturing footprint.
Got it. Thanks.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hey, Bernard. First of all, thank you for all the help over the years. We've worked together and we really appreciate it and enjoy your retirement. And then for my question, so everybody is talking about tightness in the auto industry.
Hassan, you guys have plenty of capacity here at least available to you. Is there any opportunity for you to be able to take some incremental share Or is that just not how things work in automotive given the long design cycles?
Sure, Harsh. So, obviously, for areas where we are double sourced, we're one of 2 suppliers. We have some of these in our product lines. If we're able to support it, we will. Of course, we're going to ship.
We've already engaged with We don't have 100 percent share in order for us to help if they need it. So that's ongoing and that's the way we're running the business Day to day, the challenge that we are looking at is, okay, even if we do ship that product, is that customer getting The rest of the product from supplier number 2, 3 and 4, that's what I don't know. To be able to evaluate how much share is actually going to go into revenue, that's going to be, call it, towards the end of the quarter when the dust settles. We're ready to help, but the problem is our product line is not the bottleneck as far as creating the end Product, if that makes sense. We're watching it.
We're going to go after it because like you said, if we have the capacity, we're going to sell it. And we're going to give it to the end customer, not sit on distributor shelf or even on our shelves. It's going to go as quickly as we can see the demand for it.
Got it. And for my follow-up, Hassan, can you talk about the activity that On Semi is seeing in the EV space in China, Specific to charging and chargers, this has been an area, I think that On has been very active in that particular geography. Could you just talk about what You think is your position there?
Yes. We're still very active in that area. Obviously, when you have the products that customers Value as far as the technical prowess and the portfolio that we're able to manage. We're definitely always And more often than not, we are the ones being selected. That has not changed.
And our posture in China, EV specifically, is And we've had design wins actually in the second half of twenty twenty that support that view in the market.
Thank you.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Raymond James, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you. Good morning. And my congratulations to you, Bernard, as well.
It's been a pleasure working with you.
Hassan, I just want to ask a follow-up question regarding some of the comments about refocusing the product line and Potentially consolidating the manufacturing footprint and I recognize that we're asking you some unfair questions because the Plan isn't always together isn't all together yet. But when I look at the gross margins for On Now versus the prior peak At similar revenue levels, Delta is about 300 basis points and most of that depreciation. So I guess the question is, as you've done the initial review of manufacturing. Is there enough flex in the system potentially selling fabs or Such that you would be able to make a meaningful dent in that depreciation if your business review would warrant that that's more of a footprint. Is there ability to consolidate if that's the final if that's the decision that you want to make?
The answer is yes. There is always opportunity and we're looking at everything and it's not just depreciation. I mean, once you when you start consolidating, There is obviously the utilization for the fab, the receiving fabs and really there is overhead Simplification, when I say about rationalizing portfolio and manufacturing footprint, all of this is going to drive costs out of the company. It's not going to be sucked in anywhere else and it's not going to be reallocated. It's going to be managed out of the company.
Of course, some timing It's different depending on what category of spend, COGS versus OpEx and where in OpEx and where in COGS. But we are tracking every dollar That is the outcome of every decision we make in order to decide where it's going to end up. But to answer your question more generally, I am optimistic about the levers that we have to drive gross margin expansion since I've been here in the company. So that has not been A worry of mine of great, now what I do. There's enough to do and my focus is putting it in an Executable strategy that I will ask starting with our Board of Directors, but more importantly, our shareholders and you all outside to hold us accountable to.
And that's the work we're doing right now is how do we translate that into an executable plan.
That's great. Thank you. As a follow-up, if I could ask a near term question regarding production. And if you could talk about where the utilization is now as compared to where it was last year? And how does that Track as you go into next year as you try to address some of the bottlenecks.
And then finally, maybe you could talk about where the bottlenecks are. Are they More in the front end or the back end or perhaps at some of the outside suppliers?
So definitely utilization last year in the Q1 was quite low, but we were also affected at that time by the especially towards End of it by the pandemic and the shelter in place closings that we have in several of our factories in China and towards the It means in Malaysia. We did see a little bit of an increase in the U. K. Utilization in the 4th quarter to In the low 70s, about 70, 75. And we expect that as we ramp In 2021, in the Q1, in anticipation of a team of growth in the 2nd quarter, primarily on the fab side, we should see it being helped in a little bit of Improved utilization in our bank.
Yes. Most of the this is Don again. Most of our constraints are Primarily on the outside, not internally, and the front end and the back end for us is, I would call it a balanced load. There's gives and takes depending on the product line. But managing the supply constraint externally It's really with the foundry at this point.
All right. Thank you.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Aryat with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question and congratulation and best wishes to both Hassan and Bernard. Hassan, for my first question, I'm curious as to your insights on the current demand environment. I think you mentioned auto units were down kind of in the mid teens, But your sales are only down 7.5% last year and in fact are at a record in Q4. And This delta between auto units and auto semiconductor sales is perhaps one of the widest that we have seen. So My question is, how much are you shipping to real end demand versus customers stocking up when they just read about the shortages And the order production shutdowns, how do we get the confidence that these above seasonal quarters that you're seeing in Q4 and Q1 will not be followed by some process of normalization later in the year.
What is your level of insight into actual consumption of what you're shipping into the automotive supply chain?
Sure. So I'm going to answer direct as it relates to getting to our customer, which are And I will skip any conversation about, does it go through this deal or not this deal because for this deal, We ship it to disti if it ships out right away to an end customer. So that's kind of how we're dealing with the disti. So we don't have a stranded inventory that could go to demand. So then to answer your question directly, how do we deal with the Tier 1?
It's literally direct engagement. We know what the production rates are and we know what we're shipping in. And we know which OEMs we all know this way. And this side as far as what OEM are not manufacturing which products. So we know where Our product ends with which OEM for which model year to a, call it, 90th percentile.
And that's how we manage it. If we know, for example, there's a shortage in an area or a shutdown of a OEM plant And we do have products that are targeted for that. We are going to redirect our products to somebody else. Sometimes that engagement is with OEM. They say we're shutting down this factory, but we want our capacity to go to this other factory.
We know it's going to a, call it, a vehicle versus a just a Tier 1 making a box that may not end up in a vehicle. Now obviously, you're not going to get it 100% right, but if we get 80% to 90% of it, I'll be very happy. And we monitor our inventory. It's a there is a lot of demand. And like you said, we're Rationalizing all of that demand to make sure the supply to match the demand.
And I use the term cautiously optimistic. It will take a couple of quarters, which is, call it, a full manufacturing cycle time from start to finished goods to kind of get that through the system and see what the real demand is in that timeframe. But we're It's guerrilla warfare that we're doing every day, but I'm happy with what the team's insights are for us to make decisions.
Got it. And Hassan, as my follow-up on the gross margins for Q1, guided up about 70 basis And I heard some mention of the benefits of some prior fab closure decisions. So I was hoping if you could or Bernard could walk us through the gross margin improvement kind of level set us on Q1. Are we now looking at all the benefits of pricing and fab closures and everything until you make new decisions? Like is this Q1 Gross margin, the new baseline or are you still seeing the headwinds from a utilization and other perspective or Maybe a different way to ask the same question.
What is the incremental gross margin we should be modeling from Q2 onwards? Thank you.
So definitely the Q1 number includes the benefit of the closure of Rochester that's fully executed and we are seeing those going through our numbers And that is having an effect on and we said before, it's $50,000,000 a year. So that's having an effect on our gross margin.
As far as moving forward and what you should expect, I will start with our Q1 guide. And that's part of the regular updates I'll be giving you until I give you a trajectory for our gross margin. And Vivek, you know what trajectory and how committed I am once I deploy a step function by core by The quarter is based on my prior life. That's the one we're building right now. Now how much of this is In Q1 for the Rochester closure or the pricing judgment that I've talked about Or other levers we're doing, it's actually there's a lot of line items that we have been pulling on.
I'm not waiting obviously till August or till Q2 to We've made tremendous progress. You're going to see a few weeks in Q1 on some items or a full month or 2 months in on others depending on when we pull the trigger. My focus though is what I call structural gross margin improvement. And what I mean by structural is gross margin improvement that we drive and it doesn't happen to us. I'll take the stuff, the favorable things that happen to us, But there has to be a structural baseline that is up into the right gross margin baseline that you can hold us accountable to and that's the plan we're going to be deploying.
Thank you and good luck.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna for Hana International Group. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the question. And Bernard, I echo my congrats. Thank you for all
All the good questions have
been asked for the most part. Two quick ones. I guess, first of all, disty revenue has We've been maybe in the 50s and we've had 2 strong quarters now in 63, 64. Maybe talk about What you're seeing on the disty side, are there shortages direct and people are going disty At some of your competitors, for example, what's driving that DST number so much higher than typical?
Resales have been pretty strong in the channel. We are managing our inventories to be within our normal 11 to 13 weeks and That way, so it's more just the overall strength.
Yes, but I don't know the discrepancy That you're mentioning as far as I'm guessing the 60% and the 50% numbers are percent mix from distribution. It's been Very consistent at about the 60% range. So there hasn't been really a change in behavior Because direct customers are not going to switch to disti because they can't get products from us and that's what the comment I gave to Vivek earlier. We are driving the disty inventory to be able to be a straight shot through disty to our end customer. There's no point on building inventory on the shelf at this deep.
So if the customer cannot get it direct from us, I can Guarantee they're not going to be able to get it from the distributor by bypassing. That's not a driver, but it's been consistent. I don't see Any change in distribution percentage for the company?
Sure. Understood. My second question on the comm side, That was better than we had expected. Could you talk about the importance of Maybe North America into this as you put handsets into comms versus rest of the world, China and others. Talk about maybe where we're seeing outsized strength and how important that North American customer is in particular?
I mean, obviously, North American customer is important because the deployment and the capital expenditure is happening. And given our position with the 5 gs power side of the market, We are very well positioned across the regions. There's a certain level of total market. And as things lose share regionally, we will gain it somewhere else. And that's the work we're really monitoring on a global basis regardless of where The design in happens.
Understood. Thank you, guys. Congrats, Bernard.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Craig Ellis with B. Riley Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes.
Thanks for taking the question. And Bernard, congrats. It's been great working with you over the years. Hassane, I wanted to start just by following up on Compute sequential strength and dig into it the following by, one, can you help us understand just the distinction between What server power might have done versus notebook given the strength in notebook units? And then as you look at the things that distinguish where you'll want to allocate resources.
Any initial views on the ability to drive high Gross margins and value out of those two different sides of the business going forward would be helpful.
Yes. So our focus in the computing space is more on the server, cloud and cloud. That's where we see where We have opportunities for enhanced shareholder value in the future. In the meantime, we're taking opportunities The fact that the client computing has been quite strong and in that sense, we believe some of it is from the work from home scenario and Obviously, we are taking advantage of that, but the focus in the long run where we see better margins and also enhanced growth is on the 2%
Yes. And that fits kind of when you overlay our strategic markets. I talk about automotive and industrial. There are other, I'd call it, submarkets that you're familiar with, like the server within the compute that is A focus market because I look at it as an adjacent technology market. If we are able to create high value products in auto and industrial, Those are very valuable for these submarkets that I'm talking about.
They will drive growth and margin accretion for the company And those would be things you're not going to see us invest as a point product in them, but we're definitely going to be addressing them as part of the adjacency we drive and that's effectively the OpEx efficiency metric.
Got it. And then for the follow-up, Hassan, you mentioned early in your script that since you've been aborted on, You've had some notable positive surprises. I was just hoping you could list 2 or 3 of those and talk about them and their implications as you think about driving the business forward and creating additional shareholder value? Thanks guys.
Sure. I'll give you I don't want to steal my own thunder for the August meeting, But I'll give you one, that we have if you look at the product portfolio mapping versus gross margin profile, I really like the distribution. I thought the distribution is going to be more Less levers and much higher gross margin businesses than what I found. So we do have some Very healthy gross margins and the focus for me is how do we double down on those and grow them in order to start Effectively shifting the mix while we disposition the dilutive tail. There's more levers in that view of the business than I have thought Walking in and that gets me excited because I don't have to wait 5 years to change a mix.
We can actually That's great. Thank you.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Kevin Cassidy with Rosenblatt Securities, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thanks for taking my question and congratulations, Bernard. Just on the foundries, how many different foundries do you use? And are they all raising prices? Is this what you're talking about when you say the Supply chain is your supply chain is increasing prices?
So we use the same usual suspects that pretty much everybody else Big ones and small ones, we have a pretty long list of foundries And we are subject to the same pressures that probably all of our competitors are subject to.
Yes, but the comment I made about the supply chain is not really Foundry versus internal, you need to look at it as material. There is also it's not really the supply shortages that everybody is seeing, But more importantly, that I look at is the materials that is required. So, there are pockets You know that our suppliers have asked for and if we're able to absorb them, we are. If not, We usually have a dual source strategy, so we'll move somewhere else. But with a the supply constraint that everybody I see in some of it, we just have to basically eat in order for us to support our customers.
And in those cases, we are going to pass it down. But it's not a foundry versus internal cost conversation. It's more, call it, raw material for our supply chain.
Okay, understood. Thanks. And maybe just a quick follow-up and maybe in part of your strategy development, is there Consideration for consolidating foundries or trying to get prices down by putting more into 1 foundry?
Well, obviously, if you are able to consolidate even your business on the foundry, you will get the volume pricing benefit versus being able We don't always have the choice because of the technology footprint that you need. Soundfoundry just And do a wide range of the technology we need, but that's part of how we are looking at it. So, when I say manufacturing consolidation, It's both internal and external in order to get the best pricing and the best posture we can to service our end markets.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of David O'Connor with Equinor Paribas. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Great. Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Maybe 1 or 2 just follow ups on my side. Hassan, you mentioned about being positively surprised When you came in and started looking at the business, was there any negative surprises that kind of stood out for you? That's my first question.
And then maybe as a follow-up, the industry has been caught by surprise by this sound retightness. How do you think that changes the relationship, if at all, with foundries in the kind of longer term? Is there anything in terms of securing that capacity that needs to change or just even in the relationship? Thank you.
Sure. It's hard for me to answer the negative surprises because I don't have any. My mind works differently. If I see something that is not what I expected, I look at it as a positive opportunity. So, it's always positive, whether it's a surprise or an opportunity.
Of course, there are a couple that I just didn't know. I didn't have an opinion one way or another, because they're internal. I didn't have the privilege of getting in and looking at Non public information before I joined that I discovered, but I looked at it as well, that's part of the reason I Took the job is in order to be able to identify all of these opportunities and turn them into positive surprises for us and our shareholders. But I will tell you, in general, the umbrella that I would answer is there hasn't been a day in the last 8 weeks where I woke up thinking, what the heck did I just do? It's always been, let's go at it, let's write more things down and let's start executing.
That's been kind of the mindset I've had. And really the response from the team has been And that's why you see an energized workforce, but more importantly, the results are going to start to show. So, that's on this side. Now, how do we deal with the long term kind of the Industry caught by surprise and so on. It's really once you have a strategy and a 5 year outlook with a 3 year credible window, Then you start having those strategic conversations with your suppliers and turning the conversation from a tactical to a strategic, where If you're able to commit, this is your growth, and you're able to keep their factories not lumpy, up and down, Then you have a much better relationship.
I have a lot of those relationships personally. Wei Chung, who we brought in As the Head of Global Manufacturing and Operations has a lot of these relationships and we're going to strengthen those, But it's all going to start with we, as a company, what do we want to do strategically and how can they help.
Very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Hassan. Welcome to the team and thank you to Bernard for your contributions and support over the past number of years. As a part of your strategy, Hassan, focus on high margin, high growth products and markets, I think a key part of that is you lead with certain leadership products And then drive further dollar content attached given the breadth of the portfolio. What's your assessment of the current sales and marketing organization and focus And the ability to cross sell and drive higher attach rates to targeted opportunities.
Yeah. I think From our direct sales force and our marketing, the mindset is there. And my drive for these groups is really adding the focus. If you have a sales force and order marketing, I would call it sales and marketing with a very heavy bag to sell And portion of that bag is not going to drive the value. I'd rather lighten that bag and have them really Hardcore sell the things that we want them to sell still at a breadth and at miller material coverage.
That's how I'm thinking about it. And that by the way is going to match our distribution. I answered a prior question where portfolio rationalization is going to drive our distribution Footprint, I'm going to be looking at distribution the same way I look at our direct sales and marketing. It's going to be how do we maximize the content that I want to maximize.
Yes, makes sense. And then maybe if you could just give us your thoughts on the Silicon Carbide Power Portfolio, I know the team has been talking about the growing portfolio and design win pipeline of next generation Silicon carbide based power solutions in both automotive and industrial, but wanted to get your views.
Sure. I would put that under one of the positive surprises that I've seen since joining. I think our products are very competitive. I like where we are on the technology development For that and really more importantly is the design wins that we've had in these markets. Now obviously, as far as revenue drive, As we all know, the mix of IGBT versus silicon carbide, we're going to see that crossover probably over the next, I don't know, 4 to 5 years.
But we're here, we're playing and we're going to start taking share based on Where our products are going to be. So, I see that as a positive surprise for me and it's going to be definitely part of the strategic intent that we're talking about.
Great. Thank
you. Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, guys. Hassane, congratulations and thanks for letting me ask the question. Hassane, you mentioned earlier that we're all trying to steal your thunder For the August Analyst Day, and I apologize if this is an attempt, but you talked about the margin targets that are out there Today that they wouldn't change until August, but in that preamble, you also talked about timing to get there was being a big focus. I'm kind of curious, Relative to the existing targets that are out there, how quickly do you think you can get there?
And if you could help me understand where the low hanging fruit is versus the stuff that's a little bit harder to do?
Sure. So, you see already Q1 is a Move in the right direction as far as margin. So that I'll just tell you that. You're not going to wait until We have one more quarter before the August discussion we will have, so you'll see more progress then. As far as the timing, of course, fab changes We'll take the longest because it takes time to change your manufacturing footprint between transferring technology and getting customer calls.
But you're also not going to hear me say wait for me for 3 years before we unwind all of this. We have And there are enough levers for us to make a positive impact on margin. What I'm hesitating, because I really haven't done the full scope of it, Is the scale of that positive impact we can do in the short term. And again, all I'm asking for is to August. But you're not going to see, oh, yes, we're stuck with manufacturing, so it's going to take a long time.
That's not what you can expect. You'll expect something much more favorable.
That's helpful, Tom. This is my follow-up. Just going back to your M and A comments, I know you're not Maybe too specific, but I was hoping you could give us some broad strokes of how you're thinking about M and A. You clearly created a lot of value At Cypress with the Broadcom IoT acquisition, if you look at the history with ON, there's sort of been this tension between M and A And profitability targets and oftentimes the M and A set the profitability targets back. What kind of principled views do you have on M and A around accretion, around the model, around what it means to add to the business?
Sure. There's not really one recipe for M and A. What in parallel to what I talk about the strategy for the company, I do have a M and A strategy very specifically that matches up to that. And what do I mean? Some deals are strategic deals where they may not be accretive right in the 1st year or when we do it or at the But they're strategic to give us a position in the market that we would like, a leadership position.
We're going to be looking at those, for example. There are some that are financial deals where you do a deal because it strengthen your current markets Or capability that you are growing organically where you can give it an adrenaline shot in the arm and accelerate The attainment versus doing it organically. So, I look at M and A and you've seen it the way we've done it at Cypress, In order to fit a certain purpose, and that's the thesis that I formed prior to going into the M and A, because if I can't explain it to all of our employees, I sure as heck cannot explain it to all of you out there. So, focusing on why we are doing it is key. But we're not going to do a bad deal, Just to do a bad deal.
We do have the scale. We have the growth. We have a lot of opportunity for us to create value. So, you're not going to see us rushing, doing something just for the sake of doing something. We're going to be very disciplined.
But when we do something, you can expect that it's going to be to achieve a very specific thesis that is very well aligned with our strategy.
Helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of William Stein with Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks for letting me ask
a question. I'm going to offer my congrats again to Bernard. And so Hassan, probably for you, I'm Hoping you can dig into the end markets a little bit more in particular. I think we didn't hear about consumer and compute in the quarter. Maybe that's I'll tell as to the strategic focus of those end markets, but maybe you can talk also about the Q1 outlook by end market
a little bit. Thank you.
Sure. Your comment is very accurate. I'm starting to set the stage of where we're going to be. And Obviously, the Q and A session is very, very long, but it's very also important to Kind of set the stage of where we are, but you're going to start expecting these commentary in order for us as a company to start driving the narrative Where we are and what our strategy is and that's why you didn't see a lot of commentary on as far as some of the end markets that I'll gladly take if they support growth at the right margin profile that we have, but what I call they are opportunistic markets. I'm not going to be delving into a lot of those details moving forward, but if there's anything notable, we will just tell you regarding that.
And that includes kind of given the breakdown forward looking guidance by all of these end markets. I don't think that That dilutes a little bit of what we are doing. So, I want to keep the message on point.
Okay. Maybe then I can ask a little bit about the backlog. We've heard a lot about shortages that Stimulate double ordering because customers get nervous. It sounds like that's not so much happening with your business, but maybe you can Give us some idea as to the size of the backlog now and the duration of the backlog relative to what it looks like typically?
Listen, there's always a risk of double ordering and we have a lot of metrics. Our sales force and our operations We have way more data than I can tell you about how do we trend and make sure that there are inconsistencies What we expect, what the market tells us and what the orders on our books are. So, I'll leave it at that. And whatever we see risk of double Ordering, we pick up the phone and have to engage directly. We don't depend just on the backlog to drive our inventory and our wafer starts.
So, we do that Again, as a day to day, typically in normal times, we don't have to do this. But again, if it goes back to the comment I made earlier, When we get an order, I want to make sure to whatever confidence I can, 80%, 90%, 100% confidence that it's going to be On a board at a customer that's going to ship to an end consumer. That's the focus. So, we're trying to plow through it, but there are indications of some Bookings that we just ignore, I guess.
Thanks, Sung and congrats on the great results and guidance.
Thank you.
Thank you. And this does conclude today's question and answer session. And I would like to turn the conference back over to Praag Agarwal for any further remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. We look forward to seeing you at various conferences and various non dealer show throughout the quarter. Thank you, and goodbye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.