Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

May 10, 2023

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Origin Materials' First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ashish Gupta from Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Ashish Gupta
Partner, ICR

Thank you and welcome everyone to Origin Materials' First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining the call today from Origin Materials are Co-CEO, Rich Riley, Co-CEO and Co-Founder, John Bissell, and CFO, Nate Whaley. Ahead of this call, Origin has issued its first quarter press release and presentation, which we will refer to today. These can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at originmaterials.com. Please note, on this call we'll be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements reflect our views as of today, should not be relied upon as representative about views of any subsequent date, and we undertake no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. For further discussion on the material risks and other important factors that could affect our financial results, please refer to our filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K filed on February 23rd, 2023, as amended on April 28th, 2023. In addition, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are useful as supplemental measures of Origin Materials' performance. These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for or in isolation from GAAP results. You will find additional disclosures regarding the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on today's call in our press release issued this afternoon in our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our website.

The webcast of this call also be available on the investor relations section of our company website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rich.

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Thank you, Ashish. Thanks to everyone joining us. Today we'll be referring to the slides that were posted to the Investor Relations section of our website earlier this afternoon. I will start by reviewing Q1 highlights, then provide a commercial and regulatory update. I will then turn it over to John, who will discuss Origin 1, Origin 2, and application development. Nate will wrap up with a financial overview. We will begin on slide 3. We continue to execute on our plan and make progress on our mission to enable the world's transition to sustainable materials. First, customer demand remains strong and broad-based, with offtake and capacity reservations exceeding $9.3 billion. As of February 2023, our commercial strategy has evolved from demand generation to revenue generation and the development of higher margin products.

As such, we do not plan to provide quarterly updates to our total signed offtake agreements and capacity agreements going forward, but we'll provide updates as appropriate. We are also pleased to announce that we are reporting our first revenue this quarter generated by joint development agreements and our supply chain activation program. Our supply chain activation program is the set of activities we engage in to develop our commercial and logistical capabilities for delivering product and to establish relationships with vendors and customers across the supply chain. Second, as announced in January, Origin 1 is mechanically complete and commissioning is underway with the completion of plant commissioning and startup expected in Q2 2023. Third, we continue to make progress on the front-end design, construction planning, and financing of Origin 2.

We continue to expect that Origin 2 can be fully funded from a combination of existing cash on hand, previously indicated traditional project financing, and potential strategic partnerships. We plan to provide an update on new product offerings and construction plans for the Origin 2 plant in August 2023 during our Q2 earnings call. Finally, we are maintaining 2023 guidance for revenue of $40 million-$60 million and adjusted EBITDA loss of $50 million-$60 million. We continue to see strong favorable tailwinds for our technology and business model. Turning to slide five, the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, is expected to provide approximately $369 billion in direct investment related to climate solutions.

Origin is actively exploring several IRA-funded programs, including the Department of Energy's Advanced Industrial Facilities Deployment Program, or AIFDP, which we expect to hear results from by the end of the year, and the Section 48C Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit. We remain optimistic that these programs could provide meaningful support for the construction of Origin's plants. In March, the Biden administration released a report titled Bold Goals for U.S. Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing. The report's stated objectives include both climate and supply chain-related directives that we believe could create positive momentum for Origin in securing additional funding and deploying our platform. Turning to slide seven, in early May, we were thrilled to announce a strategic partnership with Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited.

For those not familiar with Indorama, they are one of the world's leading petrochemicals producers and the world's largest producer of virgin and recycled PET resins, with about 26,000 employees worldwide and close to $19 billion in 2022 sales. This is a highly strategic relationship for Origin, as Indorama Ventures has made meaningful pledges related to sustainability as part of its Vision 2030 plan, including commitments to invest $8 billion in recycled and bio-based plastics in pursuit of its goal of increasing the use of circular for bio-renewable feedstocks. Origin's technology could enable Indorama to enhance the value of its existing global petrochemical manufacturing footprint while supporting the company's Vision 2030 plan, building on its industry leadership and sustainability. As part of the strategic partnership, we have signed a memorandum of understanding to explore initiatives related to the rapid commercialization of low carbon bio-based materials.

The initiatives include evaluating the use of existing Indorama units in the USA with some modification to commercially produce bio-based materials. Under this arrangement, Indorama would convert derivatives of Origin's platform chemical CMF into various sustainable chemicals and bio-based plastics. Under the MoU, Indorama and Origin will also study the potential to use production samples of bio-based materials in limited volume product launches in partnership with high-profile brands. The materials are anticipated to be used in packaging, textiles, films, and automotive applications, and could include Bio-PET, Bio-PTA, the advanced bio-based chemical FDCA, and co-polyesters that have an advantage over traditional PET plastic. Turning to slide eight, in mid-April, we were excited to announce a strategic partnership with SCGP, a leading multinational consumer packaging solutions provider, to explore licensing Origin technology for use in an Asia-based manufacturing facility.

The strategic partnership includes a joint development agreement between Origin and SCGP, whereby we aim to develop sustainable carbon-negative products from eucalyptus feedstocks provided by SCGP for applications in food packaging, logistics, automotive, and construction. As part of the JDA work, we have successfully processed and tested SCGP's eucalyptus feedstock at our West Sacramento, California pilot facility, confirming similar yields to other sustainable wood residues that we have evaluated. As a feedstock, eucalyptus offers several benefits, including rapid growth, adaptability to diverse environments, and other properties useful for industry. Turning to slide nine, in late March, we were pleased to announce a strategic partnership with Hyosung Advanced Materials Corporation, a Korea-based industrial materials company, to industrialize sustainable high-value specialty materials for use in a wide range of end markets and applications, including batteries, automotive, and apparel.

As part of the partnership, Hyosung signed a multi-year capacity reservation agreement to purchase sustainable carbon-negative materials from Origin, including PET and a hybrid polymer, PETF, which is a blend of PET and FDCA for use in power cord applications, as well as HTC for use in battery materials and furan derivatives for use in spandex applications in the apparel industry. Turning to slide 10, in mid-April, Origin and the Green Chemistry Division of the Minafin Group, a global fine chemical company, announced a new commercial arrangement whereby Minafin will become Origin's manufacturing partner for the downstream supply chain of Origin 1. The initiative, which expands upon our previously announced strategic partnership with Minafin to industrialize sustainable chemicals, aims to further build on the strengths of Origin's patented technology platform and Minafin's manufacturing capability, process know-how, supply chain strength, and deep expertise in furan specialty products.

As part of the manufacturing initiative, CMF, produced by Origin at Origin 1, will be delivered to Minafin, which will convert the CMF into downstream intermediates and products. The initiative is expected to position the company's complementary technologies to grow the value of the bio-PET supply chain for high-value chemicals and materials, including bio-PET. This quarter we amended our existing agreement with PepsiCo. We have increased the flexibility of the agreement by expanding the slate of products that may be supplied, as well as which plants may supply those products, with final volumes, product mix, and plants to be mutually agreed upon. To wrap up our commercial update, our sales pipeline remains strong. We continue to expand the breadth of industries and end markets that we serve and identify opportunities to direct our intermediates towards higher margin products.

Turning to slide 11, in early April, we were thrilled to announce the appointments of Craig Rogerson and Tony Tripeny to the Origin Board of Directors. They bring a wealth of experience in operations, strategy, corporate finance, and M&A to the company from leading world-class chemicals and material science companies, which will prove to be a tremendous benefit as we begin commercial production. Craig Rogerson has four decades of executive experience leading private and publicly held specialty chemical companies, having most recently served as Chairman and President and CEO of Hexion Inc, a leading global producer of adhesives and performance materials that enable the production of engineered wood products and other specialty materials. Prior to being acquired for $1.9 billion in 2022 by American Securities, Hexion had over $2 billion in annual sales.

Previously, Craig served as Chairman, President, and CEO of Chemtura Corporation, a global developer, manufacturer, and marketer of engineered industrial specialty chemicals. Prior to being acquired for $2.5 billion in 2017 by LANXESS AG, Chemtura generated $1.7 billion in 2015 revenue. Tony Tripeny brings over three decades of significant operational strategy and M&A experience, extensive knowledge of the manufacturing, technology, and material science industries, and a background in international corporate finance. He most recently served as director at Mesa Laboratories, a global leader in the design and manufacturing of life science tools and critical quality control products and services, many of which are sold into niche markets driven by regulatory requirements.

Previously, Tony had a 36-year career with Corning, a global leading innovator in material science with more than $10 billion in annual revenue, where he had held various progressive leadership roles in corporate accounting and finance, including Chief Financial Officer. Craig and Tony will be outstanding additions to our Board of Directors, and we are thrilled to welcome them. We would also like to thank Benno O. Dorer, who resigned from the Origin Board on May 8th and who was recently appointed CEO of VF Corporation, for his contributions during his tenure with Origin. With that, I would like to turn it over to John Bissell, who will discuss Origin 1, Origin 2, and product development.

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Thanks, Rich. I'll begin on slide 12 with an update for Origin 1. Origin 1, our first commercial manufacturing plant located in Sarnia, Ontario, remains on track, with commissioning expected to complete and plant startup to take place in Q2, in line with prior guidance. As announced in January, Origin 1 is mechanically complete and commissioning is underway, with work on-site progressing favorably. During the first quarter, we hired our director of manufacturing, who brings valuable experience to the team, including experience working at carbon black producers such as Cabot. Looking ahead, we're excited to start up the plant, begin commercial production, deliver product and samples to customers, and take the next step in our journey to decarbonize the world's materials. Origin 1 is first and foremost a strategic asset that we will use to qualify higher value applications for our intermediate CMF, HTC, and oils and extractives.

Apart from para-xylene and Bio-PET, using product from Origin 1, we plan to explore or qualify FDCA, epoxies, resins, surfactants, sustainable carbon black, bio-asphalt, and biofuels. We expect to gradually ramp up Origin 1 operations, aiming to optimally fulfill customer demand while we produce samples and qualify materials. We remain confident that we will be able to meet our production goals to support our revenue guidance. In product development, we continue to strengthen our IP position with additional patent filings in five new patent families, including for some very interesting potential intermediates, products and applications, advances in FDCA-related polymers that improve overall polymer performance, HTC and the use of HTC in rubbers, among others. In March, we announced the achievement of a significant milestone in our carbon black program, validating the suitability of our HTC-derived carbon black for automotive tires and mechanical rubber goods.

To understand how we achieved this milestone, I'd like to offer some additional background on HTC and what makes it so special and valuable to our customers. Starting with slide 13, Origin's HTC, or hydrothermal carbon, is believed to be a unique material not produced anywhere else in the world by any process other than Origin's. HTC forms from the interaction of lignin and degraded CMF, or chloromethylfurfural, and related compounds during the conversion of the biomass in our core process. Turning to slide 14, a scanning electron micrograph, SEM, image of Origin's HTC is shown alongside an SEM image of carbon black made from petroleum. Origin's HTC is morphologically quite similar to the carbon black from fossil-based materials, with primary particles clustered into grape-like aciniform aggregates with complex structure.

Beyond the immediate morphological similarity, Origin's HTC offers an enhanced ability to manipulate surface chemistry and morphology or the shape, size, and connectivity of the particles. This tunability makes HTC a particularly versatile material in addition to HTC offering sustainability and performance benefits for a given application. The value of this tunability is that it allows us to tailor our material to meet the needs of customers and to deliver product for a wide range of carbon black specifications, such as for tires and mechanical rubber goods, as well as develop products for applications like inks and paint pigments. HTC has two characteristics which can be readily tuned. First, we can control its surface chemistry. Origin's HTC starts out with a level of surface functionality that fossil carbon black can obtain only with great difficulty and expense.

Typically, carbon black from petroleum starts out hydrophobic with few functional groups, and expensive treatment is required to make it more hydrophilic to attain the desired performance. Furthermore, the treatment of fossil-based carbon black has a limit, and fossil-based carbon black cannot practically attain the hydrophilicity that HTC naturally has. In contrast, by treating HTC, we can remove functional groups to vary the hydrophobic and hydrophilic behavior. Second, we can change the morphology of HTC. This is valuable for carbon black, with the ability to meet different specifications and performance criteria determined in large part by particle size, shape, and structure. We can affect both the micro morphology and macro morphology of the HTC clusters. Micro morphology by the process conditions in our overall reaction and macro morphology by post-processing.

Putting it all together, the tunability of HTC gives us the ability to adjust surface chemistry and morphology, thus providing us with tremendous power over the material's performance. Having established this context, I'd like to tell you about our recent HTC milestone. Turning to slide 15, we were excited to provide an update in March on our continued strong progress in carbon black development. Specifically, we produced a carbon black that when blended with fossil-based carbon blacks, performed better than existing fossil-based carbon black. Specifically N660, a widely used and technically demanding performance specification for automotive tires and mechanical rubber goods. The achievement validates the potential for our sustainable bio-based low carbon carbon black to be used broadly in the large, rapidly growing carbon black market.

The N660 specification represents a gold standard which Origin Materials' product has achieved, indicating the potential for widespread adoption of our carbon black not only in N660 applications, but in less technically demanding specifications as well. We look forward to bringing a host of benefits to this application space. One, our material is a sustainable replacement for fossil carbon black with up to 100% bio content and low carbon intensity. Two, our material shows no detectable levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons or PAHs. Three, our material is expected to provide stable pricing, largely decoupled from the petroleum supply chain, which is exposed to more volatility than supply chains based on sustainable wood residues.

Four, we can expect our carbon black to be an attractive alternative to reclaimed carbon black, since it does not suffer the same performance limitations and as we have shown, can even exceed the performance of fossil-based materials. Five, we don't expect the production of Origin's carbon black to be affected by the same regulatory limitations in the United States as fossil-based carbon black. Six, finally, our studies have demonstrated that we can achieve superior dispersion and tan delta qualities which offer performance advantages in tires related to durability and fuel economy. Now, having made several carbon black blends that exceed the performance of N660, a highly technical carbon black specification, we look forward to further increasing the proportion of our material in similar blends in the future. Typical of carbon black development programs for tires and other applications.

Turning to slide 17, our HTC team has done an incredible job getting us to this point. We have a spectacular group of scientists, engineers, and commercial folks that specialize in carbon black and other carbon products. Everything from application development, process engineering, materials engineering, materials analysis, and regulatory management are represented at the highest level in our team, and we are tremendously excited about this group of people and what they can accomplish. Regarding Origin 2, our second plant to be built in Geismar, Louisiana. We continue to advance front-end design, construction planning, and financing. We continue to make progress developing new products and applications which may be incorporated into the design of the plant, such as FDCA, which can be converted into PEF and carbon black and biofuels. We expect to provide an update on new product offerings and construction plans for the plant in August 2023.

To summarize, I'm proud of how our team continues to execute against our Origin 1 and Origin 2 milestones. The approaching startup of Origin 1 is an exciting milestone in our mission to enable the world's transition to sustainable materials. We continue to advance our product development and commercialization roadmap, create valuable new strategic partnerships, and deepen our existing relationships to carry out our shared vision of a more sustainable, better performing chemicals and materials industry. With that, I will turn it over to Nate to discuss some of the financial details.

Nate Whaley
CFO, Origin Materials

Thanks, John. I'll begin with a commentary on our first quarter results, provide our financing expectations for Origin 2 and finish with an update on our 2023 outlook. Speaking to slide 18, we reported quarterly revenue for the first quarter of $1.7 million associated with JDAs and Origin's supply chain activation program, compared with no revenue in the prior year period. First quarter operating expenses were $13.0 million, compared to $7.6 million during the same period in the prior year. Net income was $9.8 million for the first quarter, compared to a net income of $7.3 million in the same period in the prior year.

Adjusted EBITDA loss was $9.7 million for the first quarter, compared to a loss of $6.5 million in the same period of the prior year. Turning to our balance sheet, Origin ended the first quarter with $263.9 million in cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities. A meaningful portion of Q1 cash expenditures related to the completion of Origin 1 and are therefore non-recurring. Regarding the financing of Origin 2, in early January, we announced that the Louisiana State Bond Commission unanimously passed a resolution granting its final approval of the issuance of up to $1.5 billion of tax-exempt bonds to support the construction and commissioning of the plant.

This amount is inclusive of and builds on the strong foundation of the previously announced expected $400 million in private activity bond volume cap allocation. Origin's use of solid waste feedstock to produce carbon-negative materials enables the company to use these tax-exempt bonds toward the financing of the Origin 2 project. Bank of America has been engaged by Origin to underwrite the bonds and market them to investors, which could enable the financing of the debt of Origin 2 using entirely tax-exempt bonds. Origin continues to work with leading financial institutions on other forms of traditional private financing and federal loan programs, including through the United States Department of Agriculture and Department of Energy.

As we previously discussed, we also anticipate various state, local and federal tax credit, grant, loan, and other programs, including those promoting advanced manufacturing from the Inflation Reduction Act, to be incrementally beneficial for the financing of Origin 2. As Rich mentioned, we continue to expect that Origin 2 can be fully funded from a combination of existing cash on hand, previously indicated traditional project financing, and potential strategic partnerships. Given Origin's ongoing global technology licensing effort and an active governmental affairs team, we anticipate strategic partnerships and federal incentive programs to play a meaningful role in the financing of Origin 2. Again, we expect to provide an update on Origin 2 in August 2023. I will now wrap up with our 2023 outlook.

We are maintaining our guidance for revenue of $40 million-$60 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $50 million-$60 million. With that, I will turn it back to Rich for closing remarks.

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Thank you, Nate. In closing, I would like to thank our customers, our team, and our partners for their contributions to our company's success and our shareholders for their support. I'm incredibly proud of our team's continued execution as we draw closer to commercial production and taking the next step in the world's once in a planet transition to sustainable materials. With that, I will ask the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now begin the question and answer session. To join the question queue, you may press Star then one on your telephone keypad. You'll hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. We'll pause for a moment as callers join the queue. The first question comes from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research. Please go ahead.

Frank Mitsch
President, Fermium Research

Thank you so much and congratulations on the numerous partnerships that you formed. I'm curious about Indorama, you know, given that it's the largest PET company out there, and obviously that's a natural outlet for CMF into paraxylene. You know, obviously you've had relationships with the brand owners, the PepsiCo and Danone, over the last couple of years, but Indorama is kind of a Johnny come lately into the partnership. How did that come about? Was that a push from the brand owners? Any sort of color that you could talk about the relationship that you have with Indorama and, you know, where do you think that'll, that can go?

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Yeah. Hey, Frank, this is Rich. Thanks for asking. Yeah, Indorama is an incredibly strategic partnership for us, as the world's largest.

A producer of PET and for some of our other listeners, you know, the paraxylene that we make is 80% of what goes into PET. In terms of partnering with the absolute global leader in the market to convert our paraxylene into bio-PET for our customers around the world, we couldn't have a better partner than Indorama. We also line up very well with their stated sustainability goals that they call Vision 2030, and, where they've, you know, committed to invest $8 billion into this initiative and really have sustainability at the top of their agenda. You have incredible strategic alignment, and it's a multifaceted partnership that we think will continue to grow.

Initially, we're evaluating using Indorama facilities in the U.S. to handle the conversion and to produce bio-based materials. Secondly, to work together on creating bio-based samples. Not sample, you know, like, kind of like smaller scale in the near term so that we can get those in the hands of our mutual customers. A lot of ways to work together.

Frank Mitsch
President, Fermium Research

Fantastic. Fantastic. If I could ask, in the press release, you talked about hiring a financial firm to underwrite the bonds and so forth for the Louisiana State tax-exempt bonds. Just curious as to what, you know, roughly what thoughts you have in terms of a timeframe that you might be coming to market with those bonds, understanding that Origin 2 is a 2025 startup, we are a little ways away from that.

Nate Whaley
CFO, Origin Materials

Sure. Frank, this is Nate. you know, first, as we announced back in February, we have hired Bank of America to help us bring that financing to market. really as far as timing, like we said earlier in the call, we are going to have a full update on Origin 2 and all of our expectations around that in August. I'm gonna hold on that until our full update at that point.

Frank Mitsch
President, Fermium Research

Understood. Thanks so much.

Operator

The next question comes from Steve Byrne from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Steve Byrne
Managing Director in US Chemicals Equity Research, Bank of America Securities

Yeah. Thank you. The chemistry of what you guys are developing is continually evolving. I just find it really fascinating every time we get on a call with you're going down a new path. Putting the interest in the chemistry aside, can you talk a little bit about your view of the potential value of these different pathways? I mean, if we think about where, you know, this process initially started as a way to produce PET, and now you can go down the FDCA pathway and maybe produce PEF or any of these other furan derivatives, how would you characterize the potential value of those versus PET?

Now you're going down this path of being able to convert HTC into effectively, you know, a carbon black, you know, derivative or a carbon black alternative perhaps is a better way to describe it. The value proposition here seems to continually evolve. Can you characterize it in your own view of the size of the value proposition versus, or, you know, the way you look at it now versus where it was previously as just, a PET, a bio-based PET?

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Hey, Steve, this is John. Thanks for the question. Really appreciate it. I think, you know, if you zoom all the way out, what we're really doing is developing a platform upon which you can build lots of other products and chemistry. I think what you're referring to in this sort of evolution of additional products is we're exploring and discovering the highest value places to put the intermediates that come off of our platform.

You know, I think when you look at the, at the value proposition, as you said, of each of these individual, products and markets really, I think generally speaking, and I am speaking quite generally, you know, when we talk about things being performance advantaged, that usually means, you know, better margin, and it, you know, higher value for the individual product itself. Also, you know, when we go look at a new product, we're usually saying, "Okay, well, this is something that isn't in the industry right now.

It's performance advantaged. It feels justified to do the additional work with a partner to develop that new product. The reason why we go look at that is usually both because it's a higher value product and because it's a sort of easier, lower cost material to make off of our platform than just a drop-in sort of incumbent. You were sort of getting it on both sides in a nice way, on the price side and the cost side, usually, when we're looking at these sort of new performance advantaged materials, and that's one of the reasons why we get so excited about them. You know, the other side is, obviously the world uses an enormous amount of PET right now.

We don't have to do a bunch of product development around PET to understand that there's an enormous amount of demand for it. From an impact perspective, products like PET are just so important for us because we know we can scale, you know, I would say almost arbitrarily into that market relative to our ability to bring online capacity in the near term. The more we can get into these performance advantage, higher value kinds of products and believe that we can, you know, actually penetrate into the market reasonably, the happier we are is sort of the short, I guess that's maybe a longer answer there. I think the other side is you asked about HTC. I think the same generic principles apply to our HTC products.

What's been really interesting with the carbon black product from HTC is we're finding as we get more sophisticated in our integration of that product into its applications in rubber, we're finding that it not only performs better than N660, which is the data that we published recently, but it did better without reformulating the rubber. You know, a critical part of a lot of these applications is how do you actually formulate the material into the end product, right? What are the other components or additives you're putting in with the rubber alongside the carbon black to make that carbon black perform just as well? You know, generally speaking, if you're willing to do a little bit of reformulation, you're gonna get a higher value out of the ultimate product.

We think about the HTC and the carbon black as sort of the same way. In all these cases where we're talking about performance advantage materials and bringing that forward, we think of that as, you know, higher value, lower cost kinds of materials as compared to PX going into PET.

Steve Byrne
Managing Director in US Chemicals Equity Research, Bank of America Securities

In addition to the higher value and lower cost, it would seem to me that this new pathway that you're pursuing with HTC going down and becoming a carbon black alternative, the other benefit it would seem, would be a significant reduction in the CO2 emissions if, and maybe you would have some data on that. My understanding is carbon black generates a significant CO2 emission source, and I'm just curious as to whether this might be what the end product that might enable you to get more DOE funding if the DOE is looking for products that, you know, reduce the CO2 emissions. You know, this HTC product versus carbon black could be pretty compelling. Is that for just the CO2 footprint?

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

I mean, we see a huge opportunity to reduce the CO2 footprint of carbon black and then of course one of the major markets that carbon black is used in, which is tires. Of course, tires are a really significant part of the materials consumption for automobiles, right? I think huge industry, lots of opportunity for positive impact. I think, you know, we're pretty optimistic about sort of our ability to impact CO2 footprint broadly. We think there's lots of opportunities for us to get various incentives and things like that for our work there, without being specific about exactly which one. I think there's actually another interesting dynamic in the carbon black world.

That's that in carbon, in the carbon black world, there's the CO2 emissions, which of course, as we just discussed, I think we have a big opportunity to improve that. There are actually just general pollutant emissions associated with carbon black production as well, which especially in North America, has really limited the ability to bring online economically new supply using older processes. Because of the way we make our carbon black from HTC, we don't think that we will be subject to those same kinds of constraints in bringing online supply. We think there's actually sort of another layer to the opportunity in carbon black where we could really, you know, we can expand production capacity in North America in a way that other players may be challenged to do in the future.

Steve Byrne
Managing Director in US Chemicals Equity Research, Bank of America Securities

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Eric Stine from Craig-Hallum. Please go ahead.

Eric Stine
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum

Hi, everyone.

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Eric.

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Hey, Craig.

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Hi.

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Hey.

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Eric, rather. Sorry.

Eric Stine
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum

No, no worries. Happens all the time. I can appreciate the, you know, the strategy change a little bit to look more at the revenue generation and higher margin products. I mean, given the, you know, given where demand is or the offtake value is now and, you know, I think that probably fills plants three or four or gets close and you've got scarcity value. I'm just curious, I mean, how is that driving interest on the licensing side, companies that feel like maybe they could get to market faster if they go that route?

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Eric, that's a great question. We, you know, we were excited to announce our first licensing exploration partnership this quarter with SCGP, which is an example of a company that has a lot of different assets, including a lot of eucalyptus and a need for sustainable packaging and a lot of other capabilities. Working with them to explore an Asia-based facility is an example of our licensing efforts. We do continue to receive inbound interest and, you know, we'll sort of announce and share those as appropriate. I would say more and more, you know, companies with various feedstocks, and obviously with Origin 1 being mechanical- chemically complete and online soon, I think will only increase the interest.

That's also the kind of thing that we can use Origin 1 to do is, you know, test yields and do various tests for some of these, various licensing scenarios that our partners want to explore.

Eric Stine
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum

Got it. I guess good segue to Origin 1. I mean, I know that this plant obviously smaller than what you envisioned for Origin 2 and beyond. You know, just curious how that plays into things. Obviously, making a lot of different products, getting those out into the market, increasing your reach. Do you think that other companies go the route of what you just disclosed about Pepsi in terms of amending agreements to get into some other areas?

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Yeah, I think, you know, we continue to have a lot of customers who want access to multiple materials. You know, we recently announced a deal with Hyosung, and they are interested in, you know, PET and PETF and HTC to go into a really wide range of end markets. You know, as a lot of our customers are chemical companies and companies that can, you know, take these materials in a lot of different directions, we think that'll continue to be the case.

On the polyester side alone, we do think there are a lot of companies that, you know, need a lot of PET and will need a lot of PET for a long time, but are really interested in the value propositions around PETF and PEF and certainly, you know, excited to explore those sort of next generation polymers.

Eric Stine
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum

Got it. I mean, do you kind of view what PepsiCo is doing as kind of tip of the iceberg and that more companies go that route? I mean, at this point, do you kind of view that as a one-off and you'll, you know, see how things progress going forward?

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

You know, it's hard to say. I would say, I think there's obviously a enormous demand for PET, and I don't think that's only gonna, you know, continue to grow. There is, interest from, you know, multiple of our customers in FDCA and PEF. That's a newer, polymer for them. That demand, I do think will continue to grow as they, learn more about it and, you know, test it and develop on top of it. I think we'll continue to see more of those.

Eric Stine
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum

Okay. Thank you.

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from John Roberts from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

John Roberts
Managing Director in US Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Thank you. Is the revenue capacity for Origin 1 still $120 million? Do any of these new contracts pull that forward from a 2025 target that you had before?

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Yeah. Hi, John. This is Rich. I think, you know, we reaffirmed our revenue guidance for this year. You know, haven't given it for next year yet. As Origin 1, you know, comes online this quarter and continues to ramp, and we continue to use it as a strategic asset to get, you know, large scale samples in the hands of customers and do joint development agreements around those samples and explore licensing arrangements and those kind of things, I don't think there's any reason to think our outlook on Origin 1 has materially changed.

John Roberts
Managing Director in US Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Okay. Secondly, will Origin 1 have any HTC sold commercially as N660 carbon black or in blends with fossil N660?

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

It's a great question. I think that it's pretty clear that we'll be making some material from Origin 1 off of the HTC that's gonna be, you know, I'm not sure that we're ready to call it N660, since it seems to perform a little better than N660. I think we'll be making a carbon black grade that will be used in those applications. Can't speak to the volume. I don't think we're ready to talk about the volume that will specifically be allocated to that application at this point. I'd say, you know, I'd be surprised if we weren't making some pretty meaningful volumes of that off of Origin 1.

John Roberts
Managing Director in US Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Thanks, man. Congrats on the progress.

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Thank you.

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Pavel Molchanov from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Pavel Molchanov
Equity Research Analyst of Energy Group, Raymond James

Thanks for taking the question. I saw in the press release that after this quarter, you will no longer be reporting the offtakes and capacity reservations. What led to the decision to stop disclosing that number? Because it was quite useful over the years.

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Yeah. Thanks, Pavel. This is Rich. You know, we felt like that number has grown, you know, 9x in a relatively short period of time. You know, the reason we were focused on that was to prove that we had a lot of demand beyond packaging. That number grew very rapidly, and in fact, I would say it grew kind of more rapidly than we would have expected. We talked about a couple of quarters ago that we really feel like we've proven that demand, and we've, you know, got demand for several Origin 2 scale plants. Continuing to just keep growing that demand wasn't really the right focus. Instead, we would focus on joint development agreements and, you know, licensing relationships and revenue generation.

You know, some of that's what you even here in our product advancements, like we've been talking about, you know, some of that stuff comes from working with other companies closely and spending our partnership resources on developing, you know, deeper relationships, you know, for example, with companies that make carbon black or tires or things like that in the case of HTC. You know, we think it's gonna keep growing. We'll continue to update that number, as appropriate, but we just thought it increasingly sort of, you know, wasn't super helpful. We generally get the feedback from investors that they, you know, have really no doubt that there's massive demand for our materials, and that we'll be supply constrained for a long time. That's some of the rationale.

Pavel Molchanov
Equity Research Analyst of Energy Group, Raymond James

understood. Let me follow up on Origin. You're obviously, you know, right on the cusp of startup. Have your thoughts changed about how long it will take for Origin 1 to reach steady state operation? I think 36,000 pounds a quarter of production, something like that. Are we still looking at a 12-month kinda timetable for that? What's the latest?

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Yeah. Thanks, Pavel. I think, generally speaking, our view hasn't really changed there. I, you know. A meaningful part of that is really not us looking at it and saying, "Okay, we're gonna make sure that there's exactly this increase in percentage ramp, capacity ramp up on a month-by-month basis," but more reflecting that, you know, generally speaking, both on the demand for specific kinds of customer, for specific kinds of materials from customers, is a little bit uncertain and probably a stronger driver for us than just maxing amount of capacity, as fast as we can.

The second is, sort of reflecting our recognition that there's always some uncertainty around exactly how fast you get these things up to scale, and we wanna try to underpromise and overdeliver to the extent that we can for those kinds of things. I think, you know, it's not to say that we haven't learned anything at all, from Origin 1 at this point, you know, since the last time we talked about this. I think we haven't learned something that would materially change our view of the sort of timescale, of bringing Origin 1 all the way online.

Pavel Molchanov
Equity Research Analyst of Energy Group, Raymond James

Yep. No, that's clear. Appreciate it, guys.

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Thanks.

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Thanks, Pavel.

Operator

That concludes today's live Q&A segment. I will now turn it over to Ashish Gupta, Investor Relations, to conduct the next segment of our investor Q&A.

Ashish Gupta
Partner, ICR

Thank you, operator. As we've done on our last four earnings calls, for today's call, we invited all investors to submit questions as part of our Ask Origin campaign. Once again, we are pleased with the very high level of participation and wanna thank everyone who submitted a question. In the interest of time, we'll be taking the most commonly asked questions. Our first questions are for Rich. Rich, what is Origin developing with SCGP? Is it retrofitting a factory? Can you talk about the terms or possible revenues from future licensing?

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Yes, it's a great question. SCGP is a really interesting company as I discussed previously. What we're really doing is working with them to explore the feasibility of them being able to make large, you know, commercial quantities of PET in Asia using eucalyptus as a feedstock. So we were excited to have received eucalyptus from them, have processed that in our pilot plants and to have proven out that the yields on eucalyptus are attractive and that that seems like a very feasible feedstock for an Origin plant. So we'll continue working with them on the feasibility assessment and look forward to working with other companies on similar sort of projects.

Ashish Gupta
Partner, ICR

Do you think licensing could be a significant source of revenue over the next few years?

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

I do. You know, certainly a source of some revenue as we will likely be able to be compensated for some of these explorations that we do with various partners. You know, how serious and the timing is still not all that clear. You know, we it is clear that a lot of companies need an entire Origin 2 scale plant, you know, or more for their own needs, which quickly leads us to a licensing kind of conversation in terms of it wouldn't make sense for us to build a plant for a single customer as part of our initial plants. I think that could lead to a pretty meaningful revenue in the relatively near term.

Just really hard to say how much and by when. We continue to make a, I would say, lot of progress on the licensing front.

Ashish Gupta
Partner, ICR

Great. Really appreciate that color, Rich. With that, we'll now turn to a question for John. John, are there any key learnings from Origin 1, building commissioning process that you know, you think you wanna take into consideration for Origin 2 and beyond?

John Bissell
Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Yeah, sure. I think there are quite a few things that we have been learning. I think the probably the most important set of things that we've learned are around the way that we specifically will do capital projects execution. You know, I remind investors pretty regularly when we talk to them, but we're really doing two things. We're both scaling a technology, but we're also scaling the organizational capabilities of Origin with these kinds of projects. When it comes to a capital project like Origin 1, you know, it's a good size project where you really have to test our sort of fit and form of our processes and the way that we execute that.

I think we've learned, you know, quite a bit about how to do that right and what was, you know, what did we have to end up muscling our way through because we frankly, didn't do it as efficiently as we could have and what are things that, man, that really just worked fantastically and we'd like to make sure we do that in the future every single time. I think that's been, that's been pretty significant, in terms of the number of things that we've learned there. I think a lot of that is gonna be very transferable to OM two.

You know, the other thing is that we've along that same line is we've brought together a lot of spectacular people from a lot of different organizations, each of which, individually are capable at capital project execution, engineering design, and manufacturing. Across each of those areas, you know, we're trying to understand what are the pieces of the way that some of those great companies, the people from those great companies do each of the parts of the capital project execution and meld that together in a really clear way that is sort of where you get a great sum of the parts in terms of our organizational capabilities. I think there's been quite a bit there.

I think on the technology side, you know, there are some small things where we say, "Boy, I think we'd rather do that a little differently," or, "Maybe we wanna change the stack of particular components in the process." I'd say, at this point, it's still quite modest. I'd say sort of nothing that really jumps out for us. Of course, as we start it up and ramp up capacity on Origin 1, we're gonna learn a different set of things about the technology and/or organizational capabilities. I think, you know, we're all looking forward to that.

Ashish Gupta
Partner, ICR

That's fantastic. Really appreciate all the detail there, John. Sounds like we can take a lot to OM-two and beyond. Thank you so much to both Rich and John. Absolutely. That'll conclude the Q&A portion of today's call. I'm gonna turn it back to Rich for closing remarks.

Rich Riley
Co-CEO, Origin Materials

Thanks, Ashish, and thank you all for joining us today, for all the great questions and for your interest in Origin. This concludes today's call.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

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