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Earnings Call: Q1 2021

Apr 26, 2021

Speaker 1

Turning to Slide 4, Q1 results and 2021 outlook. 1st quarter new equipment orders were up high teens at constant currency with midteams growth in the Americas, low single digit growth in EMEA and double digit growth in Asia driven by China. On a rolling 12 months, total Otis orders were up 1.4%. This strong order performance led to continued growth aglog, up 8% and 2% at constant currency versus the prior year. Organic sales were up 10.3% in the 1st quarter with 25.1 percent organic growth in the new equipment segment and 1.3% organic growth in the service segment.

Adjusted operating profit was up $83,000,000 and margin expanded 40 basis points. Overall margin expansion was impacted by segment mix as the new equipment business grew faster than the service business. Free cash flow was robust at $541,000,000 with 176 percent conversion of GAAP net income. I'm encouraged by this positive momentum and we're confident in our revised 2021 outlook improving across all key metrics. We now expect net sales to be in the range of $13,600,000,000 to $13,800,000,000 up 6.5% to 8.5% versus prior year and up 4% to 6% organically.

This is a 2 point improvement from the prior outlook at the midpoint driven by faster than expected recovery in the new equipment segment. Adjusted operating profit is expected to be up 170 $210,000,000 actual currency and up $120,000,000 to $160,000,000 at constant currency, with adjusted EPS in a range of $2.78 to $2.84 a 10% to 13% increase versus the prior year and a $0.09 improvement from the prior outlook at the midpoint. Lastly, we expect free cash flow to be robust in a range of $1,350,000,000 to $1,450,000,000 with approximately 120% conversion of GAAP net income. With that, I'll turn it over to Rahul to walk through our Q1 results and 2021 outlook in more detail.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Sherry, and good morning, everyone. Starting with Q1 results on Slide 5. Net sales grew 14.9 percent to $3,400,000,000 with organic sales up 10.3% as the growth momentum continued in new equipment and service returns to growth in the quarter. Adjusted operating profit was up approximately 18% or $83,000,000 and up $57,000,000 at constant currency as the drop through in higher volume, strong material and service productivity and favorable service pricing more than offset the headwinds from new equipment mix and pricing as well as incremental public company expenses. We maintained the focus on cost containment while continuing to invest in the business.

As a percentage of sales, Adjusted SG and A was down 20 basis points despite the step up in public company expenses, and R and D spend and other strategic investments or about flat versus prior year. This strong focus on execution drove 40 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter. 1st quarter adjusted EPS was up 20% or 0 point 12 dollars driven by $0.13 of operating profit growth and $0.05 from a lower adjusted tax rate. This was partially offset by incremental interest cost from the full quarter impact of our external debt. Moving to in the quarter.

New equipment orders were up 18.4% at constant currency with growth in all regions. Orders rebounded strongly in Americas, up mid teens and were up for the 4th straight quarter in Asia, including strength in China, where the orders were up double digits. Booked margin in the quarter was down 60 basis points year over year, but improved sequentially. Organic sales were up 25.1 percent with Americas and Asia up about 22% and and 46%, respectively, driven by strong backlog execution. EMEA was up low single digits, sustaining the turnaround that started in Q4 of 2020.

Despite the strong sales, there was broad based growth in backlog that was up 8% and up 2% at constant currency, with backlog margin down slightly versus prior year and up 20 basis points sequentially from prior quarter. New equipment adjusted operating profit was up 44,000,000 and margin expanded 170 basis points as higher volume and strong material productivity that met our 3% target more than offset the impact of unfavorable mix and pricing. Service segment results on Slide 7. The number of units under maintenance contracts increased by 2% with growth in all regions and China up low teens after high single digit growth in 2020 from strong improvement in underlying operational metrics. Modernization orders were up slightly at constant currency as double digit growth in Asia, driven by successful go to market strategy to leverage the mandated regulatory upgrades in certain markets, and low single digit growth in the Americas was partially offset by lower order intake in EMEA.

Service organic sales were up 1.3% in the 1st quarter with continued resiliency of the contractual maintenance business and discretionary repair and modernization sales returning to growth in the quarter. Adjusted operating profit margin expanded 60 basis points and profit grew $35,000,000 on the benefit of higher volume, strong contribution from productivity initiatives and favorable pricing. Translational FX benefit of $20,000,000 was mostly offset by higher SG and A, including incremental public company expenses. As we look forward to the remainder of 2021 on Slide 8, we feel confident about growth across all key metrics, given the higher backlog, strength of the maintenance business and our focus on operational excellence. Service callbacks, our proxy for repair volume, is also showing continued sequential improvement and contributed to the growth of the repair business in the Q1 after 3 quarters of year over year decline.

These encouraging trends combined with the strong Q1 results gives us confidence to raise the organic sales outlook to be up 4% to 6% for the year, up 2 points versus prior outlook, driven by accelerated recovery in the new equipment business. We now expect adjusted operating profit to grow $175,000,000 to $215,000,000 at actual currency, up $45,000,000 from prior outlook at the midpoint, with sales growth, operating profit growth and margin expansion in both segments. Adjusted EPS is expected in a range of $2.78 to $2.84 $0.09 higher than prior outlook and up 12% versus prior year at the midpoint. The year over year increase is driven by strong operating and profit growth, a 90 basis point reduction in the adjusted tax rate to 29.5% and reduced share count. This EPS outlook is ahead of the high single digit medium term growth target that we had provided at Investor Day.

Following the strong cash generation in Q1 from higher net income and more than $300,000,000 reduction in working capital, We now expect free cash flow for the year to be in a range of $1,350,000,000 to $1,450,000,000 $50,000,000 higher than prior outlook at the midpoint, reflecting the improvement in net income and better working capital performance. Given the strong Q1 free cash flow and success in repatriation of foreign cash. We raised our dividend 20% last and are increasing the share buyback target for 2021 to $500,000,000 Taking a further look at the organic sales outlook on Slide 9. The new equipment business is projected to be up between 7.5% to 8 point 5%, driven by accelerated backlog conversion and continued recovery in the market. This 4.5% improvement at the midpoint It's driven by increased expectations in all regions and is supported by strong order intake in Q1 and demand signals from the market.

Americas is now expected to be up high single digits, EMEA up low to mid single digits and Asia up approximately 10% from improved outlook in China and other markets in Asia Pacific returning to growth. Consistent with our prior outlook, we expect service sales to be up 2% to 4%, with maintenance and repair sales up 2% to 4% as well and modernization sales up low to mid single digits as maintenance remains resilient and we see continued recovery in the repair and modernization businesses. In addition to our success in Asia Pacific, modernization growth is also driven by market growth in China and conversion of backlog in the Americas and EMEA. Overall, the organic sales growth outlook of 5% at the midpoint represents a solid turnaround after a difficult 2020 with growth across all regions and all lines of business and puts us above 2019 levels in both segments on a reported basis. Switching to operating profit on Slide 10.

We now expect operating profit to be up $175,000,000 to $215,000,000 and up $120,000,000 to $160,000,000 at constant currency, reflecting the benefits of higher volume, service and material productivity initiatives and favorable service pricing environment, partially offset by unfavorable mix and pricing in the new equipment segment, headwinds from commodities and incremental standalone expenses. This represents a $45,000,000 increase versus prior expectations, driven by the improvement of outlook in both segments, lower corporate expenses and higher translational FX benefit. New equipment margins at the midpoint are now to be up 80 basis points for the year versus prior expectations of 50 basis points and above 2019 levels. Service margins are now expected to be up 40 basis points from 30 basis points previously, building on the 110 basis point in 2020. We expect overall margin expansion of approximately 40 basis points for the year.

Overall, we believe that this strong outlook for the business on sales growth, margin expansion and cash flow generation reflects our focus on execution and the benefits of a solid market recovery. And with that, I will request Stephanie to please open the line for questions.

Speaker 3

Thank you. And your first question is from the line of Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Angel.

Speaker 4

So the new equipment Growth in the quarter was sort of like took me by surprise, especially in the Americas. We're not seeing too many signs of clear strength in many of your end markets. So I'm just wondering if you could maybe just focus perhaps a bit more in the Americas, and what's driving that strength by vertical? And then on top of that, the same question really is, are we seeing a higher mix of mega projects in the mix that's driving that growth?

Speaker 1

Yes, Nigel, great to hear from you this morning. We were very pleased with the Americas performance this quarter. And I think it goes beyond just our performance. I think We're seeing all the indicators now starting to turn whether that's the ABI, the architects billing index, which is in March was at a record since the 2000 7 time frame. The Dodge momentum has turned positive as well.

We're seeing that. We're experiencing that in Americas. Our new equipment organic sales were up almost 22% and our orders were up over 14%. We're seeing that across the volume business as well as in some major projects. So, there continues to be recovery, especially in North America.

Brazil is still suffering some of the COVID impacts, but North America between the U. S. And Canada is back very strong, again a volume type business, as well as major projects. In terms of verticals, the commercial business, that Commercial non res in North America turned positive for us this quarter, and actually did a little better than residential for us in North America. So it was a little different than we saw in 2019.

But again, with the indicators and the indices heading in the right direction and this really strong performance by our Americas team. We had growth in new equipment orders, significant, but we also had growth in mod orders in the Americas. So the team is executing well in local markets and then as well on national accounts.

Speaker 2

Yes. And the only other thing, Nigel, that I'll add is We accelerated backlog. We've been talking about it that we had substantial disruption in 2020, both because of the COVID related issues in the factory and lack of access to job sites. And with those things not being as much of an issue in Q1. We saw really good field execution in the Americas specifically.

So that is where you saw the Americas sales being up. And the other point, just to go back to your question on large orders, if you look at the mega orders, which is We define those as $10,000,000 above. That's less than 10% of our volume in any given quarter. While those were up in the quarter, we saw a really strong double digit plus increase in the ongoing volume business as well. So it was a good performance across both the mega project and the volume

Speaker 4

Great. That's great color. Thank you very much for leaving that. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Your next question is from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

Speaker 2

Good morning. Good morning, Steve. Good morning, Steve.

Speaker 5

Can you just talk about what you're seeing in China, Tier 1 and Tier 2 versus Some of the other tiered cities?

Speaker 1

Yes, Steve. So we had this quarter our best progress in a long time in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. Our strategy is working. And we increased our agents and distributors significantly in only in 2020. We added another 200 in the Q1, but the ones we brought on in 2020 are really help yielding that access that we were looking for to grow in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities.

The other two places we saw improvements were in our key accounts and in the infrastructure segment. They had the 2 largest areas of growth for us in the first at Q in China and that's important on the new equipment side, but for us it's even more important because our conversion rates for key accounts and infrastructure to allow us to grow our service portfolio. Our service portfolio grew in the low teens in China in the quarter, which beat the high single digits from last year. So Tier 1 and Tier 2 positive, more positive than we saw in 2020.

Speaker 5

And then I guess just Thinking about the back half there and into next year, I mean, what are some of the signs you're seeing fundamentally? And how do you think the trends play out in that time period.

Speaker 1

Yes. For China specifically, Steve? Yes.

Speaker 4

Yes.

Speaker 1

Yes. So listen, it's a competitive market in China and we know that. We're also watching really the credit and liquidity situation of the major developers. We're managing effectively through that. Perry and the team are doing a really good job there.

And we're deploying IoT and OtisOne there significantly again to help us on conversions. Yes, second half is going to be a little tougher compare for us in China because China came back so quickly post COVID in the second half of twenty twenty. So we're going to watch all those factors, but the segment in China, the new equipment segment is going to grow mid single digits. It's the largest market in the world. Even despite some of the cooling measures that are still in place, we think the market is more balanced and we are going to continue to perform

Speaker 2

Yes. Steve, just a couple of other things to add related to China. Really strong start to the year in the market. As Judy said, we expect you kind of mid single digit growth growing into the year. And we I think that market growth could be a little bit north of that.

So a little bit positive on China than we were at the beginning of the year. And the other thing is that Despite all the conversations around property market cooling down, the area under construction in China, the construction area is actually up 11%. So we're seeing strong momentum in China.

Speaker 5

Right. Okay, thanks.

Speaker 3

Your next question is from the line of Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.

Speaker 6

Hey, two questions from me if I could. First, totally understand on kind of the and accelerated execution out of the backlog. Although the backlog managed to grow despite that, I just wonder if you can speak a little bit since we don't have a ton of history to go on. Your backlog currently relative to your forward sales expectation. Is it on the low, medium or kind of about right relative to what you'd expect as to kind of project existing backlog into future revenue conversion.

Speaker 2

So good morning, Jeff. So Is our backlog sufficient to drive growth sales in the back half? Is that Are you trying to go?

Speaker 6

Well, yes, I mean, clearly in dollars, it is. I'm just thinking about the conversion of backlog to revenues, right, it's going to be all over I would say, right, depending on the type of the project and the like. So just when you think about your revenue guidance for the year. Would you say this backlog gives you kind of above or below average comfort in that revenue forecast?

Speaker 1

Yes, listen Jeff, this gives us, I would say above average confidence. When we met you and everyone last February at our Investor Day, Raul and I and the team said our goal was to end 2020 with a stronger backlog than we came in and we did that. We've now obviously grown that backlog in 2021 in Q1 and we've got sufficient backlog now to see us through and that's what gives us confidence in our outlook. What we need to do is keep growing that backlog as we end 2021 to position us for 2022 and that's where we already have the team focused.

Speaker 2

Yes. And typically, we expect our backlog to drive maybe 2 thirds of the revenue in the year. Jeff, that's kind of our typical standard. And this year, it's going to be north of that. And that's part of the accelerated backlog conversion that we've been talking about is that and that is where it is really positive to see backlog growing in the Q1 and higher shipments out of China.

So despite that, it was really good to see the backlog growing because we did have accelerated conversion in Q1.

Speaker 6

And maybe just to follow on that. I know you probably don't want to get into detailed quarterly guidance, but given all kind of the crazy COVID comps, right? It would seem that you would have very good new equipment growth again in the second quarter despite the fact that you pulled forward some stuff in Q1. Can you maybe just give us a little color on kind of the magnitude of revenue conversion you're thinking about for Q2 on the new equipment side?

Speaker 2

Yes. So, Chesapeake always expected a strong start to the year in new equipment because, as you pointed out, easier compares in China, but even in the Americas because Americas revenue was down in in Q1 of 2020, and we had a relatively slow start here. But as we look forward to Q2, China recovered strongly and was up high single digits last year, but the rest of the world was still weak. So we expect new equipment to still be strong in the second quarter, but maybe not as strong as Q1. So that's where we think and then Q3 should be up as well and then compares get tough in Q4 because Americas and the EMEA market recovered very strongly last year.

So on the service side, the flip side is true because we got out of the gate marginally stronger than we had expected with the recovery of the repair business. But the impact to that full year is marginal. And so we didn't change the guide there. But the fact is that we do expect service to be up really strongly in Q2 just given the year over year compares were weak last year. So that's the reason we expect service to be really strong in Q2 and then Q3 as well.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

Speaker 3

Your next question is from the line of John Walsh with Credit Suisse.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, John.

Speaker 7

Hey, two questions if I may as well. One, just Curious, when some of these property developers are going in and looking at upgrading HVAC or indoor air quality, just Curious if that's an opportunity for you to have a modernization conversation with them or if they're also looking to maybe put Some IoT and just curious if those are actually pulling in some conversations with your product portfolio?

Speaker 1

Yes, there is a corollary or correlation and it is helpful, but It's not something we depend on. We have a modernization sales force that is specifically focused on modernization of both equipment in our portfolio where we have existing customer relationships as well as modernizing any equipment, but specifically Otis equipment it's not on our portfolio. There is when someone's ready to make an investment, one of these developers, Usually it's not the developer though, it's more the building owner now or the building manager or the condominium association that are looking for these upgrades than the original developer. And so our sales force is very focused on that. We expect modernization to pick up.

I was pleased to see modernization up in terms of orders. We were up this quarter and we saw a nice turn there and we're going to see that pick up especially in EMEA. Our Europe performance and we don't talk a lot about this because the Americas and China was so strong, but our EMEA performance, New equipment sales were up over 3%, orders were up over 3% and they had really good portfolio growth, but we see There's a pent up demand, especially in EMEA for modernization because these customers really couldn't get to us or couldn't meet to approve mod. So whether it's health solutions where we get integrated or, standard modernization for technology, for aesthetics or for connections with OtisOne or our eVu product. We're expecting that to pick up especially in the second half of the year.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. And then maybe a question around the Gen 2 Prime product offering. Any update there on kind of contributions to orders growth or how the market is receiving that product?

Speaker 1

When we launched Gen2 Prime in India, out of our Bangalore factory and as you can imagine, there's some challenges in India, not so much with our supply chain. We've mitigated that. You can see based on the performance in Asia, we've mitigated supply chain challenges and had material ativity throughout over 3%. But, so we were surprised pleasantly surprised by the number of orders we have received in India considering the current COVID and economic challenges. We have exported to Southeast Asia, the Gen2 Prime already from our Bangalore factory and are getting ready to bring it to market in the Middle East as well as Africa will be after that.

So very pleased with the product reception. It's at a great price point, entry level point for us and, I think we're going to see that continue to make a difference for us addressing what was an area where we needed a product to bring to market, and that's where we are as an innovator.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you for the color.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Sean. Your

Speaker 3

next question is from the line of Joel Spungin of Berenberg.

Speaker 8

Good morning. I was just wondering if I could pick up on your comments around the books margin being down in the quarter at 60 basis points improving sequentially in new equipment. I was just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on that. Do you is that being driven by Was the fact that it was down year on year being driven by pricing pressure per se in the market? Or is it due to changes in the road mix?

And if we think about why it's improved sequentially, maybe you could just elaborate. Is that because there's been an easing in some of those pressures? Maybe you could just

Speaker 2

Yes, good afternoon. So yes, there was pricing pressure in the Q1. And as we said in our prepared remarks, there was headwinds from both mix and pricing, but the pricing pressure was really no surprise. I mean, We've been talking about it. Given the macro environment, we did expect pricing environment to be challenges.

But as you said previously, we focused on taking cost out of the business. And even on the field side, we're focusing on reducing the number of installation hours. So that's been our focus, and that's where you saw substantial improvement in the margins in the new equipment segment. The positive that we did see was that both the backlog and the book margins improved versus Q4. And that's a positive sign because if this improvement holds through the year, that should be positive for 2022.

And this is different than the trends, especially in backlog margin. This improvement in sequential improvement is different than the trends that we were seeing last year. So that is a positive development. And if it holds, that should be a positive for 2022.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. That's very helpful. Maybe I can just take one more quickly, which is, I was wondering if you had any remarks or observations around raw material costs and logistics costs. Obviously, something we discussed in the past that you didn't really talk about too much today. Is that something that you're Able to pass on without too many challenges at the moment.

Do you expect it to intensify as the year goes on? Yes, maybe you could just provide a bit of additional color.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Joel. It's Judy and good afternoon. Listen, we are as you can see from our new equipment 160 basis points growth. We you're seeing the drop through and you're seeing the margin expansion offsetting competitive pricing. We have always said we will control what we can control.

We can't really predict market driven pricing, but we will control what we can. And so when we started, the year and in our Q4 and in our first guide, We said we had accounted in our guide for about $20,000,000 of commodity headwinds. We're seeing about $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 higher than that original thought than what we originally built into the guide. So, we're doing a few things about that. We're driving material productivity even more, again 3% in the a little over 3% in the Q1 net of inflation.

Our new equipment margins are rising. We're also targeting some pricing. Pricing is very competitive globally, but there are certain markets where we believe we can, have some targeted pricing increase to offset that additional $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 of headwinds in a few countries, not to be named, but where we think that price will come through and we'll be able offset that.

Speaker 2

And that is where we see in if you look at our full year guide, that is as Judy said, we've offset the incremental commodity tool pricing in these countries. So we've been able to address that. And that is where you see if you look at our full year guide, We've now increased the margin expansion in the new equipment segment from 50 basis points in our previous guide to 80 basis points, so that's a good sign. And also if you look at the remaining 3 quarters of the year, our drop through on the higher volume at constant effects is close to 20%. So quick, which is above our contribution margin of 18%.

So clearly, the fact is we're getting the benefit from volume and even a little bit from productivity that we are able to see in the 20% drop through for the remaining 3 quarters of the year.

Speaker 8

Great. Many thanks.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Your next question is from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

Speaker 8

Hi, good

Speaker 10

morning. Maybe just wanted to circle back on the new equipment profit guide. So I think your new equipment profits are up Just under €40,000,000 in Q1, at constant currency and the year at the high end is guided at +80. So I suppose if we assume that Q2 is up decently off the easy comp as you mentioned, Very little or no profit growth in new equipment in the second half. Maybe just help me understand, is it the weighting of that extra Cost headwind you just alluded to, the tougher comp on the top line, kind of what are those main moving pieces that mean there's very little

Speaker 2

Well, let's just kind of take away the pieces, Julian. So in the new equipment in the Q1. The biggest driver for the earnings growth is going to be the 8% organic sales growth that we're talking about at midpoint and the drop through from that along with and fuel productivity that is offsetting the commodity headwinds. The savings that we're getting from restructuring actions that we've taken in 2020, That will help us offset the incremental standalone cost and headwinds from some of the actions that we took last year. So when we've raised the new equipment earnings outlook primarily from the higher revenue.

But based on the drop through again, just to repeat We said earlier, we're based on the drop through on incremental volume for the year is close to 20%. So we are seeing and it's so I don't Just the fact is we are seeing the drop when you see about 30% $30,000,000 improvement in earnings. So it's early in the year, so it's good to be prudent, but we are seeing good drop through and good continued improvement in the new equipment profit for us for the year.

Speaker 10

I see. And is there any color on the weighting of that cost headwind you mentioned through the year? Is it fairly even?

Speaker 2

Well, when we started the year, we expected the commodity headwinds to be more and a few towards the first half, given we were expecting prices to come down. But as we as better prices are sitting right now, I think that commodity headwind is probably even and we expect to see that throughout the year, just given that commodity prices are hanging in a little bit longer. So we are expecting that to continue throughout the year. So that is where but it's good to see, Julien, despite that, I mean, if you look at our profit guide, even for balance of the year, we're expecting close to $40,000,000 improvement and new equipment earnings. So we are absorbing that.

You're seeing the benefit from volume. So we see continued improvement in the new equipment profitability. The margins are higher in in the second half. I mean based on the guide that we provided, our margins for the remaining three quarters of the year are up 50 basis points year over year. So not only we saw very strong margin expansion in the Q1 given the volume increase, but even as we go through the rest of the year, 2nd half compares do get tougher just given the strong growth that we had in new equipment segment, especially in the Q4.

But despite that, we are seeing a 50 basis point improvement in the margins in the remaining three quarters of the year, but continued profit growth.

Speaker 10

Thank you. That's very helpful. And maybe just a very quick one on service. You added in your profit bridge pricing as a tailwind for 2021, which wasn't there at the Q4 earnings, but you left the revenue guide for service organically unchanged. So just wondered, does that mean that the pricing tailwind is very small or there's some slight reduction in the volume outlook offsetting it?

Just wanted to Try and understand that service pricing driver a little bit better.

Speaker 1

Yes. I think it's still early in a year. We were we saw both repair and modernization turn positive in terms of growth at Q1, which was better than we had seen in the former three quarters. For pricing and service and the revenue per unit was up about 50 basis points. So to us that was a very positive and that's a global number.

So even in places that are We can't even get to certain customers due to COVID still in a few markets. We were really service pricing held very nicely. We're going to continue to monitor this and obviously we'll be back to you next quarter with what We know, we do expect the second half service growth to be stronger. It's almost the counter to the new equipment growth. And as we continue to see that trend, we'll continue to evaluate what our outlook should be and share that with you.

Speaker 2

The other good thing that happened in the service, Julian, in the first quarter was our pricing concessions that we've been providing to our customers, they continue to come down. We've seen that number continue to come down over the last 4 quarters. So that we can Q2 last year was the peak, and they've been sequentially coming down. So that was another positive. They're less than $5,000,000 for the quarter, so it's insignificant.

So that was another really positive development. And as Judy said, the pricing overall service pricing was favorable, and that is where you saw us increase the guide. But that part, the concessions, just given the overall COVID environment, that part we are being very careful right now just Because we're not through COVID, especially if you see certain parts of the world, we're seeing some resurgence. So that part, we baked in some improvement in service pricing. We reflected that in our guide, but we were careful not to bake in the sequential reduction of service concession to an outlook just given the uncertainty in the environment.

So we're being prudent on the absence of pricing concessions in our guide. That's good to hear. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Your next question is from the line of Kevan Rumer of Cowen.

Speaker 11

Thank you very much. So Help me a little bit with the quarterly pattern. If I look back at 20 eighteentwenty 19, the second quarter was on average Up 21%, 22% from the first. And then obviously, normally the 3rd and the 4th would be down sequentially. What you were so strong in this quarter is like if you're up close to 20%.

And even last year, you were up 15% sequentially, You have almost to fall off the cliff. So I mean, kind of just looking at this, the constant currency and we're seeing some of the growth in new elevators. Looks like it has opportunity. Am I correct?

Speaker 2

So let's just talk about the quarterly trends first, Kai. So the difference between 2020 and maybe some of the prior years is the COVID impact. So this year is a little bit different than the prior years. Just given the slowdown in China in Q1 of last year, so we expected and China rebounded very strongly in Q2 of 2020 just because it was a snapback. So that is where you see the historical trends that you mentioned, They're primarily driven by the Chinese New Year holiday.

So Q1 is typically a lighter quarter in China, and then you see an improvement in Q2. So that's what a typical year is. But last year, that trend got magnified because of COVID. So therefore, we saw a really strong snapback in in Q1 of this year. And I think the improvement in China, well, you're still going to see that sequential improvement in China that we always do, but it's not going to be to the same extent.

I think that's what In response to Jeff's question, I think that's what I was trying to say earlier. So that's what you will see. So this year, the trends are going to look a little bit different than the prior year trends, just given that. So we expect Q2 to be strong. We expect Q2 new equipment sales to be still be up strongly, just given Americas and EMEA compares.

And again, as we said earlier, the service compare should be easy as well. So we expect a snapback in service, Compares are easy, our repair and modernization revenue is coming back. And the snapback of the repair revenue in Q1, that was a positive. That we have not seen that year over year growth in the repair revenue in since Q1 of 2020. So that was a positive, and we expect that trend to accelerate in Q2 of 2020 Q2 of 2021.

So that's the positive that we see. So Q2 will be higher than Q1, but Not to the same extent as prior years just given the COVID impact last year.

Speaker 1

Yes. And Kai, just a little more color. I mean, we're seeing, especially in the U. S. Nonresidential segment, In Q1, we saw a really good snapback on the commercial side and saw a tougher residential compare.

So it actually flipped what a lot of other markets are seeing. So we're seeing this turn in non res. We experienced it both on the order side, but the residential was a little tougher for us in the Americas.

Speaker 11

Very helpful. And then, on OtisOne rollouts, I think you did 100,000. I think that's the target for this year. Can you update us? Can you do a little better than that?

What are the main countries you expect to roll out?

Speaker 1

We anticipate doing a lot better. OtisOne is a key element of our strategy for portfolio growth. Anytime we're connected, whether it's OtisOne or our Compass destination dispatch system, eView. Anytime we're connected, we get better conversions where people come to us for service and then we also get at improved retention and our retention rate did maintain at 94%, which we believe is the best in the industry. We will at least deliver as many as in 2020, which was 100,000 in 2021.

We have started shipping all units out of our China factories and our North America factories already OtisOne IoT enabled. And we will beyond the countries last year, which were China, the U. S. And 4 in Europe. We're going to be adding some in Asia Pacific as well this year.

There's great pull. We just again, this is about a focused strategy on density. So we don't want to send OtisOne to every country simultaneously. We want to have the ability to define where we're going to put it because it's on our capital investment so that we can yield the productivity we expect from it and then obviously also give our customers some additional insight beyond IBT and the information for our mechanics to perform even better. So again, it's a logical strategic rollout

Speaker 2

and we'll

Speaker 1

be adding some countries in Asia Pacific as well as potentially another few in EMEA.

Speaker 11

Very helpful. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Thanks, guys.

Speaker 3

And your next question is from the line of Carter Copeland of Melius Research.

Speaker 9

Just a couple of points of quick clarification. First on The revenue per unit, the 60 bps that you mentioned, Judy, any color you can help us understand there on Regional differences in that number that you're seeing. And then just on the service portfolio growth, I know you highlighted The China number versus the 2% overall, but I wonder if you can tell us if there's any ISP Share in there if you're having any success in that front that's measurable that's worth talking about. Thanks.

Speaker 1

So great to hear from you Carter. It was 50 basis points on revenue per units. Let me make sure I said that correctly. We saw that up everywhere except one major country in Asia Pacific, where we had some very challenging service pricing, but not enough to obviously be material. So China was up, EMEA was up, Americas was up and the majority of Asia Pacific was up with the exception of 1 kind of mature country.

So those results really stand tall. It's important for us that that happens in Q1 because that's when so many of the maintenance contracts get re signed. That's If we have a sense of seasonality, that's where it happens. So that's why that was so important for us. Folio in China.

We are taking it away from the ISPs. There is no doubt now with the pace and the rate that we're securing that folio growth in China. That's exactly who we're taking it away from. And we've shared our strategy where we've expanded service depots. We've added our reach in the Tier 5 and on cities and it's paying off.

And so again, double digit teens in China in the Q1 and they just have sequentially now for the past 3 or 4 quarters continued to improve their portfolio attachment rate. Everywhere else in terms of portfolio. We had EMEA had good growth. We had growth in the Americas and again the Asia growth was more driven by China.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you for the color.

Speaker 3

At this time, we have no further questions. I'll turn the call back over to Judy Marks for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Stephanie. On April 3, we celebrated our 1 year anniversary as a standalone public company. I am proud of what our 69,000 colleagues accomplished in every corner of the globe, serving our customers, keeping passengers moving and building our company at a time of global crisis. We had a very strong start to 2021 and I'm confident that our positive momentum and the continued recovery in our end markets positions us well to deliver our improved 2021 outlook. We'll remain focused on driving value for our customers, colleagues, communities and shareholders.

Everyone stay safe and well. Take care.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

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