All right. Good morning, everyone. I'm Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley's Household Products and Beverage Analyst. We're thrilled to welcome Procter & Gamble with us here today to lead off our Global Consumer and Retail Conference. Just before we get started, a quick disclaimer from Morgan Stanley. You can see our research website at www.morganstanley.com for our research disclosures. With that, I'm very pleased to welcome Andre Schulten, Procter's CFO, to the fireside chat today, and John Chevalier, Senior VP of Investor Relations. John's gonna give his own disclaimer, and then we'll get into Q&A.
Yeah. Thanks, Dara. Before we get started, we need to mention that this discussion may include forward-looking statements. If you refer to our most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.
Great. So Andre, obviously, it's been a very successful period over the last five years or so for Procter. A lot of significant execution changes, if you go back over that five-year period. I guess just maybe to start with thinking strategically, longer term from here, what are the key initiatives or priorities from here as you look out over the next few years? Two or three things that really continue to sort of drive this momentum going forward. And how do you think about the sustainability of that momentum with, you know, some of those execution changes being sort of sea changes, if you go back a few years ago, versus the company operating at pretty strong levels today?
Yeah. Morning, Dara. Morning, everyone. Look, I think the last five years have given us confidence that the strategy that we've been operating is working. It's working across different geographies. It's working across different macroeconomic contexts. I think our belief is that doubling down on that same strategy is the measure that we need to take in order to make the results that we've been able to deliver over the past five years sustainable going into the future. When you think about the concept of Irresistible Superiority, across five vectors: product, package, communication, the in-market execution, and value for both retailers and for consumers, if that is executed the right way, it will grow markets.
Growing markets is the way to make our growth sustainable, because as we grow markets and categories, we grow our share within those categories, we grow our retailers' business, and we reach more and more consumers. Our ability to continue that investment in superiority is driven by strong productivity, which we have been able to execute even during COVID, and now even stronger post-COVID. That muscle continues to strengthen. We've talked about initiatives like Supply Chain 3.0. We talked about our ability to further generate synergies and efficiencies in our marketing spend. So we feel very good about our pipeline for the next three to five years to continue to deliver the level of productivity we need to strengthen or sustain the level of innovation and superiority that we've made.
Anticipating, constructively anticipating disruption is another key element. We, I think, have found a way to look out, and embrace challenges that we see, either from a consumer standpoint or from a market standpoint, and react quickly. And the other element that continues to be absolutely key is a strong and accountable organization. You've heard us talk about focus markets and enterprise markets as a construct to really focus the majority of the organization on our biggest markets that drive 80%+ of the sales and the profit. That concept can still be sharpened, and we're gonna do that, in places around the world to ensure that we're even more focused on category-driving initiatives, all the way from front-end innovation to execution and market. And I think the enterprise model, on the other hand, has allowed us to be agile.
Agile in geographies where regional decision-making, regional understanding of the market, of the consumer, and of the retail landscape is absolutely critical to sustain growth in periods of high volatility. And if you look at the enterprise markets results, they've been absolutely outstanding: 15% growth last year, 13% in the first quarter this year, at profitability levels that are at similar levels in the focus markets. So doubling down on those elements, I think, Dara, is what we believe is needed to sustain the growth we've been able to deliver and build on top.
Okay, great. The focus on superiority, can you talk about how you sort of move that to the next level? You've obviously had a lot of success here over the last few years. How do you drive that incrementally going forward?
Yeah, it's a good question. And we were very concerned about inertia that could set in, especially when it comes to superiority. When you declare you've reached. You've gone from 30% of our product portfolio being superior in 2016, 2017, to now 80% being superior. So the thought was, how do we avoid inertia? How do we ensure that we stay ahead, and we further build moat and build superiority? So what we've decided to do, in each of the categories, to relook at our superiority levels and sharpen the criteria for what we consider superior. So what we've done is we've basically reset that 80% superiority down to between 20% and 30%, depending on the category and the region.
And we've introduced incremental thoughts, incremental criteria into the innovation and the consumer design process to sharpen the thinking in each of the categories. One of the elements we're introducing is the idea that the products need to be in their specific category, prototypical benefit space, so superior, that when you use them for the first time, you are clear that it's the best possible solution you could purchase. That will trigger the desire to share that experience. It will trigger repeat loyalty within the purchaser, but it will also trigger what we believe is social media buzz, and therefore, word of mouth. We have introduced the concept of sustainability in our innovation concept, not as a measure in and of itself, but as an idea to integrate environmental sustainability into the superiority vectors that consumers will be looking at.
It's a fact that consumers left with a choice of buying a product that works for them and is more environmentally sustainable, they will prefer the solution that has both elements without a trade-off. So our technology development, our platform development, is really focused on increasing and including environmental sustainability in the way that we develop and market products going forward. Therefore, increasing purchase appeal and playing in a higher price segment in the market, because that's generally the case for a product that can deliver both. So those are just a few examples on superiority, where we are driving incremental incentive for categories to continue to innovate and continue to drive. The other element is very clearly that we tie to them is, you need to deliver the productivity.
So one doesn't go without the other, so the conversation is always dual. We want you to continue to innovate, innovate. We want you to continue to drive irresistible superiority. To do so, you need to deliver the productivity program in order to finance that investment.
Great, that's helpful. So let's drill down further into those focus markets. You mentioned the US, obviously, a very strong set of results in recent years. You've really refocused on, on core markets, product categories, brands, et cetera. We are at a period now where there's been excess growth in the US from a category standpoint across CPG, with obviously very large pricing contribution. As you look going forward with that pricing halo dissipating, can you talk about how your business is positioned? And I'd love to hear sort of how you think about category growth, number one, in the US, and that pricing and volume balance, and then secondly, Procter's positioning within the US.
Obviously, you've been focused on driving category growth and market share gains are a byproduct of that, but how do you think about Procter's sort of market share relative to that category growth and the sustainability of the momentum we've seen in a decelerating pricing environment?
Yeah. As you say, Dara, we saw an extended period where the growth in the U.S., call it 7% category growth within the categories we play, was really driven by pricing and mix. So if you go back over the recent periods, we saw volumes down 1%-2%, sometimes 3%, but price mix contribution to market growth in the range of 8%, 9%, 10%. That is shifting. As we've remarked in our quarter one earnings call, we expect that shift to happen, and we expected that shift to happen, not gradually, but quickly. And that's what we're seeing in the market right now. We see volumes coming up, flat to +1% in the market, and that's total market.
We see the price contribution decelerating from that 8%-9% to somewhere in the range of maybe 4%-5%. That is the current reality that we're seeing. It's from a trajectory standpoint, in line with what we would have thought would happen in the U.S. Over time, the volume component will grow stronger. We expect at a global level, and the U.S. is not dissimilar, the volume component to be in the range of 2%-3% market growth, and then the price mix contribution be in the range of 2%-3% as well, right? Which leads you to a market growth of 4%-5%, both in the U.S. and in global aggregate.
Our role in that, as you say, is to be ahead of the global trajectory and ahead of the US trajectory. We've been able to deliver 3% volume growth in the US in quarter one. We've been able to grow volume share and grow value share, and in the latest results, we continue to see that same trend, which is great to see, given the amount of pricing that we had to take. And again, it comes back to our belief that the combination of superiority, when combined with pricing, yields a better outcome from a volume standpoint, and that's what we're seeing. In the majority of our categories, we are leading category growth. We're leading category growth because of that effect.
We were able to innovate as we priced, which means we were getting the price benefit, and we were expanding our share position in higher priced offerings, which continues to be a driver of market growth. So we drive 60%-70% of market growth in our categories ahead of our share position, and that's what we continue to do. So you'll see us continue to double down on that innovation side. The direct pricing contribution, as I said, will become smaller also for us, but we'll price with innovation. We've always done that over the years, so that will continue to be a driver for retailer growth and for our growth.
Okay, great. And maybe moving to your second largest country, China. It's not exactly a secret that the beauty category has been under pressure there, weak Double Eleven holiday. You know, with SK-II, you've got some of those Japan PR issues. And then also beyond beauty, maybe you can just talk about the portfolio in general there, and any changes that you're making or ways you think about the business longer term in light of this broader China macro pressure, at least not seeing a recovery as robust as people expected. So maybe just sort of a near-term update on what's happening on the ground in light of those external situations, but then also strategically, how does that change the way you think about the business or how has the strategy evolved in the last couple of years here?
Yeah, I think we were probably more concerned about the China recovery than the overall sentiment. We said all along, we believe the recovery to be slow and bumpy. And honestly, what we're seeing is right now that China will probably get worse in our categories before it gets better. Double Eleven, as you said, was a weaker key consumption period than we've seen in a long, long time. Significantly weaker than a year ago, and that's for the market, not just for P&G. So our share position within that is holding. But the overall consumption in Double Eleven was very weak. We don't see the market recovering overall in terms of consumption levels yet. So Double Eleven is one indicator, but steady consumption also still slow.
You know, I continue to believe that it's gonna take longer for China to return to a positive growth trajectory. We do believe that ultimately, the market will return to mid-single digit growth, but it will take a few quarters to get there, and there will be quarters where it looks worse rather than better, would be my observation at this point. I was just in China with our COO a few weeks ago, and I think the message to the China team is this is a perfect time to reevaluate every element of the portfolio. And that's what we're doing. So we're looking at the portfolio structure, both in our beauty business as well as in our paper businesses, as well as in our fabric and home care businesses.
To say, are we truly set up to win with the consumer, in an environment where the consumer needs might change, the consumer spending power might change, the consumer shopping behavior is changing, as you know. China is probably the market where we see the strongest shift into online and the strongest overlap between online and offline. So every category is really working through, How can I optimize my portfolio offerings? How can I optimize my go-to-market in order to be best positioned for when that market growth returns? And also a fundamental shift in attitude, where it's no longer about catching the fastest-growing channel and just making sure you're present. It moves more into the model that we are really familiar with, which is: How do you drive market growth?
Because market growth, in and of itself, won't be readily available. So the length of how we innovate, the length of how we go to market, shifts to more of, the paradigm that we're using generally in developed markets, which is really focused on, first and foremost, how do I create growth in the market that I'm in? The last component, you asked about core drivers of our success, over the past five years. I mentioned organization as a, organization set up as a key driver. China is a focus market for us.
But there is an opportunity for us to get even sharper in the execution of the focus market system in China, even more closely link the category to the go-to-market muscle, which I think will also serve us well in terms of defining what the consumer and the retailers actually need and driving market growth. It'll be bumpy, but we feel good about the capabilities we have in China, and we still feel very confident that the market will return to mid-single digits, and we have a role to play in terms of creating that growth.
Great. And maybe we can shift over to enterprise markets. You obviously talked about the fact that it's been a strong source of growth for you, really, for years now, and a lot of momentum there. But, you know, we've seen more volatility in some of these markets recently. So just give us an update on how the consumers are holding up there, and maybe some of the unique challenges in enterprise markets at this point.
Enterprise markets have been an enormous success for us over the past years. We have been able to basically eliminate bleeders across the enterprise market portfolio. We've been able to build up profitability, as I mentioned before, to company average, which allows us to effectively invest in growth in enterprise markets. And the organization set up has allowed us to really sustain that trajectory of both growth and on the top line and profitability now over 5+ years. Last year, enterprise markets were growing 15%, significant contribution to the bottom line as well. First quarter, they were growing 13%. So again, we feel very good about where enterprise markets are, and it's broad-based across Europe, enterprise markets, LA, Asia, Middle East, and Africa.
Now, the other reality, Dara, is in, in some of these markets, it gets increasingly difficult to operate and increasingly difficult to create US dollar value. So when you think about places like Nigeria, when you think about places like Argentina, it's, it's very difficult for us as a US dollar-denominated company to create value. It's also difficult to operate because of the macroeconomic environment. So with that in mind, we are announcing a restructuring program, a very targeted market portfolio restructuring program, with the intent to adjust the operating model and adjust the portfolio in some of the enterprise markets to ensure that we maintain that portfolio discipline that has led us to this point. The restructuring program will largely focus on Nigeria and Argentina.
We've announced that we will turn Nigeria into an import-only market, so effectively dissolving our footprint on the ground in Nigeria and reverting to an import-only model. We have also announced our intent to divest our Fabric and Home Care business in Argentina. And we have other projects, smaller projects, within the enterprise market portfolio to optimize, and drive that portfolio discipline. We believe it'll serve the enterprise markets in aggregate to really focus them on those markets that have the highest potential. And from a size perspective, we're looking at a $1-$1.5 billion after-tax restructuring program. It will be non-core, and the vast majority of that program is non-cash, because we're dealing to a large degree with accumulated foreign exchange rate translation losses on the balance sheet.
Related to the restructuring program in enterprise markets, we will also be adjusting the carrying value for the Gillette intangible assets. There are a few drivers. One is, obviously, the portfolio choices we're making in enterprise markets. The other core drivers are technical drivers. The interest rate increase have increased the discount rate that we apply as we evaluate the fair value of that asset, and also the foreign exchange rate, as you know, has been weighing on the US dollar cash flow of that business. It's a technical. To a large degree, it's a technical adjustment. Again, it's non-cash and non-core, but we expect that adjustment to be about $1 billion.
The underlying strength of the Gillette business continues to be very favorable, so we continue to see growth in the range of 5%. We've seen 5% over the past three years. Portfolio is working extremely well across all areas. Innovation is strong, so it's got nothing to do with the underlying core strength of the business, but the technical requirement for adjusting the fair value because of discount rate, because of US dollar, foreign exchange rate, and because of the portfolio choices we make in enterprise markets leads us to that $1 billion non-cash, non-core impairment. We view both.
We hope you as well. We view both as good signs of portfolio discipline, proactively dealing with situations where we don't believe we can create value for shareholders, to ensure that the organization is focused on those opportunities where we can create value.
Okay, great. That's helpful. And just as we think about the restructuring, is it mainly specifically in Nigeria and Argentina, or are there other markets or other types of restructuring that go in there? And to the extent you're comfortable, can you give us a sense of sales mix today in Nigeria and Argentina, and with the divestitures you mentioned in Argentina? Obviously, it's gonna be a small percentage of mix, but does that have any impact to organic sales growth as you think going forward? Just because in theory, it's been a very high-growth market with all the pricing.
That's fair. Both Nigeria and Argentina, in the context of the global portfolio of $85 billion, are really small. Nigeria is a $50 million net sales business, so that and we'll see how much of that recovers as we go into an import mode.
Mm-hmm.
Argentina right now is about a $400 million business. But again, we still have to decide what exactly is the plan for Argentina. We'll divest the Fabric and Home Care side, and on the rest, we'll still have to see. So I don't, I don't really anticipate any material or even noticeable impact on the growth of the overall portfolio from a sales or from a profitability standpoint.
Okay. And just the reasoning behind the restructuring. Obviously, in Argentina, there's been a change in the political environment recently. Is this more, it's just the realities in the market have progressed, and now you're taking this action? Is it more, "Look, we've got some momentum in some of the areas we talked about, and we can sort of clean up some of what we need to do?" How have you just thought about, strategically, the timing of this and why now?
No, I think it's really about: What is the best way to go to market in those geographies? What is the best way to serve the consumer? What is the best way to utilize the assets of the company and create shareholder value for the company? It's, it's that balance we're trying to, we're trying to get right. We, we think that we're at the point in both markets, Argentina and Nigeria, where a change in the approach will yield a better result overall. So it's, it's not because it's opportune, it's because we truly believe this is the better way to go to market in those geographies.
Okay, that's helpful. Maybe we could switch to the margin side for a bit. We've spent a lot of time on top line. Obviously, pretty strong results in fiscal Q1. We're in an environment where commodity costs are coming down. Productivity has been very healthy. So just, as you think going forward, can you talk about some of the sustainability of this gross margin momentum that you've seen? And, you know, at a high level, we've seen a lot of reinvestment back behind the business at Procter over the last few quarters here. So what's sort of your bias or perspective going forward around that reinvestment, and do you think you're getting, you know, strong return on, on that reinvestment?
For the year, the current situation in terms of commodity and foreign exchange has not changed. We're still looking at about $800 billion after-tax help from the commodity side, offset by $1 billion headwind on the foreign exchange side. So still slight headwind between the two. You saw a very strong growth margin result in quarter one, 460 bps expansion. We explained that that is driven by a confluence of all positive effects in quarter one. So I wouldn't expect that 460 basis points to hold throughout the year, but still, we feel we're gonna see very healthy growth margin acceleration throughout the fiscal year.
Our main focus, honestly, Dara, is not the margin, it's the top line and the bottom line, in line with algorithm, mid-single digits on the top line, mid- to high-single digits on the bottom line. That's how we will construct, and how it constructs between operating margin and growth margin will shift. Our general commitment, as I said in the very early part of the conversation, is to continue the investment in superiority. And we view productivity and our ability to generate that $2.2 billion growth productivity that we've been talking about, as the core enabler to continue to invest in irresistible superiority while delivering algorithm on the bottom line as well. So you continue to see us invest the majority of the productivity we generate into innovation, into go-to-market capability, into media and communication.
As we said this year, and you've seen it in quarter one, specifically, our media investment is very robust. And it's robust because we're pushing the boundaries. We become more and more efficient in our media spend, because of the capabilities that we have to target consumers more effectively, because of our ability to reach and frequency across screens, avoid duplication. So we're testing dual track marketing, for example, two messages instead of one message, to target specific jobs to be done. We're checking for maximum frequency. What happens if we increase reach and frequency to levels that we haven't done before? Does that deliver better results for the consumer, for the retailer, and for us in terms of value creation?
All of those projects, at the end of the day, are done because they, based on the analysis and the knowledge we have, deliver a strong ROI. Not all of them will deliver a strong ROI, otherwise we'd be doing it with 100% of the opportunities all the time. So I think that's what we're doing, Dara. We'll push the boundaries, we'll see what actually works. Some of them will deliver the ROI we want, some of them maybe not quite as strong, so we'll optimize that portfolio. But it's all in the spirit of further driving superiority, further driving market growth, which is our role in the marketplace.
Right. Okay. And we spent a little bit of time on Argentina. Maybe we can turn to Latin America more broadly. I find on every conference call, when you guys give the Latin American growth, I'm sort of double-checking that I heard it correctly, because the growth has been so strong in recent years and recent quarters. How do you think about that going forward? I assume with tougher comps, there's sort of a moderation at some point, and it's a more normalized type of growth going forward, but maybe you could comment on that. And also just, it is an environment where, you know, there tends to be, particularly in some of the individual countries, more of a promotional stance in some of these categories. So how has that evolved over time in this changing pricing environment?
Yeah, Latin America has been, I think I used the term on fire in the Q1 call, but they have been on fire. I mean, the growth rate was 19%, I think in quarter one, and they came from a very strong in the same range fiscal year 2022-2023. Similar to the comment on the overall market and the U.S. market, it's important to understand that a lot of that growth was driven by pricing. Now, L.A., to their credit, on top of very strong price contribution, they maintained positive volume. So their model of investing in innovation and superiority while they were pricing, was very similar to what we did in the U.S. and in Europe, and it played out very well.
So as we saw competitors partially dilute product to not have to take as much pricing, the LA team went the opposite way, and I think that has played out very well. Now, the reality is, these markets don't grow at 19% structurally. So we believe what will happen is the market growth will decelerate back to more than high singles to low teens. The volume component will continue to strengthen, but the price component, as we talked on the global level, will moderate. That's part of our return to algorithm. So we assume that will happen similar to what we assume in the US and in Europe.
The reason it's important to understand that is the risk is when you come from that high level of growth and the expectation isn't adjusted, you might tempt the organization to do things that you don't want them to do, specifically, try to hold on to that high growth rate via heavy promotion. And as you say, these markets are promotion intensive. Brazil is, so is Mexico. Those are the biggest markets in the region. And we are observing, both from local competitors as well as from international competitor, we are observing an increase in promotion activity, in both markets. And our response to that has to be in line with our business model. First and foremost, ensure that you continue to invest in the right level of superiority across all five vectors.
Now, it'd be naive to assume that we won't have to partner with retailers to partially engage in what is a more promotion-intensive environment, but we'll do it via frequency, not via depth. We'll do it by driving promotions that drive trial, by driving regimen. So can you combine a laundry promotion and provide value via fabric enhancers, which provides trial into a lower penetration category? So those are the things we're driving. I think most importantly, we're clear the growth rate in LA will slow down, and that's part of our sustainable growth model.
Okay. And you touched on promotion in Latin America a bit. Maybe can we touch on the US and Europe? Obviously, there's sort of year-over-year variances, and also context maybe versus where we were pre-COVID, as we think about the promotional environment returning to more of a normalized state here.
Yeah, Europe, excuse me. Europe and the U.S. are very stable in terms of promotional environment. In the U.S., we're still running below pre-COVID levels, and it's not really changed. I keep double-checking every quarter. Are you sure it hasn't changed? It hasn't. We're still running at about 29% of value on promotion, and that is actually slightly decreasing quarter-over-quarter, not increasing. So I think with the strength of the U.S. consumer in our categories, with strong innovation coming in, with volume growing, the promotion environment is very stable, which is great to see. Europe is very similar.
Even though the price premium of branded competitors versus private label has expanded, because of the relative pricing both have taken, we see a stable to actually decelerating promotion environment at the moment, and I do believe it's related to the same effect. The consumer remains strong. We see both volume growth and value growth in the market, and therefore, the incentive to go heavily in promotion is not there. We'll watch both very carefully, and again, for us, obviously, this is a preferred scenario, where promotion is not a key business driver. But building superiority, building, doubling down on innovation, we believe in either scenario, is the right path going forward to make the growth sustainable.
Okay. And maybe that's a good segue into Western Europe. You guys have had a strong set of results there recently in a market where the retailer environment's pretty tough, right? It's more of a consolidated retailer environment, higher private label penetration. So, I'd love to hear about what's driving the success in Western Europe, if that can continue going forward, and maybe just what that sort of tells you in the broader organization, some of that success, maybe opportunities elsewhere, what that might tell you about your portfolio more broadly.
Europe is fascinating and honestly very rewarding to see. For us, Western Europe always was a region that was growing somewhere between 0 and 1%. It was profitable, it was stable, and that was the role of Europe. And I think what the European team has proven is that Europe can play a very different role, and their ability to break through the commodity cycle and illustrate that Europe can take pricing to offset even these commodity shocks, and continue to grow both volume share and value share through those pricing periods, I think has has been amazing to see. We are growing volume share in Europe, we are growing absolute volumes, and we have been able to restore profit, given the commodity impact and commodity headwinds.
And I think the secret to that has been similar to what I described in Latin America. Very, very intentional combination of meaningful innovation for the consumer with the pricing that we had to take, with strong collaboration for our retail partners to maximize the impact of the innovation for the consumer as it comes to shelves. A good example for that would be our laundry business. Obviously, heavily exposed from a commodity standpoint. So what the team did is really combine the strongest innovation we had, which is a four-chamber single unit dose on Ariel, with ECOCLIC packaging, the cardboard-based packaging. Significant breakthrough in terms of efficacy of the product, significant breakthrough in terms of packaging, both from a sustainability standpoint and from an on-shelf visibility standpoint. And doing so in combination with pricing, led the business to 25%+ growth rates.
That's just one example. But I think the Europe, the European team embracing the idea that with true superiority, I can break through the normal purchase behavior of the consumer, has clearly shown success. Private label is growing. We see 60-80 basis points of private label growth, but in every market and a category where private label growth, we are also growing. So it shows that Even though the pricing delta is more stretching, with the right proposition, the consumer is willing to choose and pay for a premium proposition if they are reassured that is, it is delivering the value. So very good. Feel very good about the European results and very good about the organization's capability to sustain.
Okay. And then, on the pricing front, as I mentioned, obviously, we're moving into sort of a decelerating pricing environment. It sounds like conceptually, you're thinking we get more back to that normalized type of 2%-3% range from a category perspective that you mentioned earlier. If I can gently push back a little bit, we've been above trend on pricing for a couple of years from a consumer standpoint. In theory, there's more retailer pushback. You know, might there be a period where you need a little bit below trend pricing, and that's the way things play out in the category. Perhaps mix is an offset to that. Just how do you think about that conceptually, given this has been such an abnormal period of excess pricing in the last couple of years, and how you guys think through that strategically, internally?
Oh, you're very right there. We when we say it's gonna be a 2%-3% contribution from pricing, we don't mean that's gonna happen every quarter consistently. You're gonna see periods where there's gonna be no pricing. You're gonna see periods where the pricing contribution is gonna be higher. The other point I'll make is, it's not just pricing. A large degree of that contribution is gonna be mix. We continue to see consumers trading up within our portfolio. Every quarter, we see that trade up happening, and as we bring more and more and stronger innovation, we expect that trade up to continue to happen. And obviously, our ability to price with innovation and then trade up will drive that. So it's not gonna be linear, 2%-3% every quarter.
It's gonna flow, ebb and flow with our innovation coming into the market. Mix is gonna be an important contributor, and that's what really we're focusing on, because honestly, that's the biggest driver of market growth. In many of our categories, penetration is high in the U.S. There are exceptions where we have opportunities, like fabric enhancers or oral care, for example. But even in categories where penetration is almost 100%, like bath tissue, we can drive market growth with a model of selective pricing and continued trade-up.
Okay. Well, with that, we've got a minute left here. I'm tempted to slip one more in, but I also wanted to say before we end up, really appreciate you guys being here. You've been a linchpin of sort of starting off this conference every year. So appreciate your time. As always, fascinating discussion, and we'll end things there. Thanks, guys.