Good morning, and welcome to the Polaris Industries Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All participants Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Richard Edwards, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Gary, and good morning, everyone. You for joining us for our 2019 fourth quarter and full year earnings call. A slide presentation is accessible at our website at ir.polaris.com. Which has additional information summarizing the quarter and full year expectations, and then we'll take some questions. During the call, we will be discussing various topics which should be considered forward looking for the purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward looking statements. Can refer to our 2018 10 K for additional details regarding these risks and uncertainties. All references to the fourth quarter full year 2019 actual results and our 2020 guidance are reported on an adjusted non GAAP basis unless otherwise noted. Please refer to our Reg G Reconciliation schedules end of the presentation for the GAAP to non GAAP adjustments. Now, I'll turn it over to our CEO, Scott Wine.
Scott?
Thanks, Richard. Good morning and thank you for joining us. While we were battling in December to close the year strong, I made time to see Navy Football Beat Army and then win the Liberty Bowl to finish the season 11 and 2. Their recovery from 20 eighteen's 3 and 8 records served as a good reminder of what can happen with a motivated team, experienced coaches and a good game plan. Of course, winning also demands execution and coach Niamatololo had that dialed in all year long.
While I would grade our Polaris performance last year are a good bit better than 3 and 8. We share Navy's strong foundation and focus on execution and I like our chances to make a Navy Football like improvement in 2020. Retail and revenue growth in Q4 helped push full year sales up 12% with half of that from organic growth and the remainder from our 1st full year with Boats. Encouragingly, we had positive sales growth in every business segment during the quarter and for the full year a true testament to our strategy and the execution of our Polaris team. Competitively.
Providing our best ever delivery performance and offering customer advantages through Factory Choice, our flexible and efficient operations were a key advantage that we will continue to exploit. With lean activities continuing to drive network wide productivity and strategic sourcing savings beginning to hit the bottom line, we delivered better than anticipated gross margin performance to finish the exceeded $1,000,000,000 in annual sales for the first time, which is an especially significant milestone for one of our most important and profitable parts of our business. Cap's 4 wheel part business, retail aspects also had another strong quarter of growth, up 11% over the prior year period. I'm proud of the work our team did last year to limit the impact of tariffs and with exemptions flowing through and mitigation efforts accelerating, we will moderately reduce our tariff burden in 2020. Indian motorcycles had 2 major product introductions last year, with the FTR 1200 in the first half and challenger arriving towards the end of October.
Both contributed to Q4 and full year market share gains and we expect their sales to remain strong this year. Overall 4th quarter North American retail sales were 2% improving sequentially as ongoing side by side growth was complemented by growth in ATVs and snow. We lagged the ORB market slightly, which was up mid single digits in the quarter, but with the improvement built into our 2020 plans, we do not expect that to continue. Indian Retail returned to growth and market share gains in the fourth quarter, outperforming a North American heavyweight market, which was down for the quarter and year. Boat retail was up modestly with Bennington leading the way, keeping pace with the industry that was up mid single digits in its seasonally smallest quarter.
For the year, Bennington gained market share and our dealer inventory reductions finished slightly ahead of plan. Our model year 'twenty side by side retail ramps slowly slightly below our expectations but improved in December and appropriate countermeasures are in place to ensure that we satisfied many more customers in the year ahead. Snow sales have been strong and with the help of a good start to winter sew in an impressive lineup of sleds, and we know this is about to get better with our dealer show next month. We ended the year with North American dealer inventory up 5% was at the which is at the higher our dealer retail flow management profiles for 2020 and expect to maintain our inventory turnover advantage in the industry. Snow inventory contributed a 1% improvement, reflecting the solid snow conditions and strong demand for 850 powered sleds.
We made several key leadership moves recently and I'm excited about their positive impact. Steve Menneto has experly led our motorcycle business for the past decade, building the Indian brand and business into a $500,000,000 global enterprise, boasting industry leading growth and customer satisfaction. Having grown up in his family's Polaris dealership and led sales for off road vehicles, Steve's knowledge, passion and relentless focus on results are timely additions to our largest business unit. Mike Doherty is another 20 plus year Polaris leader having led our ATV business and significantly expanded our global reach during his international tenure. Mike led the growth of Indian launch of the FTR 1200.
Now leading both motorcycles and international, Mike's business acumen, bold thinking global brand management experience should enable us to accelerate the work that Steve started. These moves position us well to win the competitive battle in powersports. Strategic growth is also extremely important and with Chris Musso's 2 years leading ORV and nearly 20 years of world class consulting experience, He is the right person to consolidate our strategy extensive experience and a few products in our electric portfolio, and we are committed to being competitive and profitable in our electric endeavors. I'm extremely proud of the digital tools and advances our team has made to improve how our customers experience our vehicles and our company but we must accelerate this transformation to enable the continued expansion of our business and customer centric digital engagement and to facilitate that, I am thrilled that Vic Cole has joined us as Polaris' 1st Chief Digital Officer. Vic's experience as CEO of XI Technologies and is groundbreaking and very relevant work as Chief Digital Officer at Michelin Group gives him the tools and the background to take Polaris to another level of digital engagement and execution.
We are excited to have him look forward to seeing how much he improved both the customer experience and our overall business. Our commitment to innovation is a key reason Polaris exists and our history of high performing industry leading vehicles testifies to its efficacy. We remain dedicated to innovation, but consistent with our Think Outside Brand message, we are extending our reach in exciting ways, such as Factory Choice's unique vehicle offering, Campraiser's amazingly funded large annual customer appreciation party and Polaris Adventures, experienced roughly 130,000 visitors last year. Our focus on customers plainly shows in our investments exemplified by our recent Ride Command Enhancements that enables buddy tracking, AI enhanced factory defect detection in our plants to improve quality and our new $50,000,000 distribution facility in Nevada, which offers expedited deliveries to our West Coast customers. Our Las Vegas reveal of the 2020 Slingshot was fun and siding, which mirrors how we expect a much larger audience of customers to feel as they experience its new automated manual transmission.
Auto Drive will capture most of the headlines, but with 70% new content, including a more powerful, higher revving Prostar engine, significant interior enhancements and eye catching LED lighting, the 2020 Slingshot to lure extends far beyond those who simply do not want to drive a stick. The phenomenal Indian challenger also boasts a brand new liquid cooled engine, giving it best in class horsepower to go with this classic styling and cutting edge electronics. It is aptly named as it invites riders to see what's around the next bend and dares our industry rivals to keep up. With a dynamic market, a charged political landscape and our positive leadership changes, a consistent stable strategy is paramount to our success. Our commitment to being a customer centric, highly efficient growth company is unwavering and despite the unanticipated tariffs we are working to overcome, We remain focused on creating a path to our 2022 financial targets.
I will now turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Speetzen, who update you on our financial results and plans.
Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Our 4th quarter sales were up 7% on a GAAP and adjusted basis versus the prior year driven by higher sales of off road vehicles and motorcycles. Average selling price was up 8% during the quarter, driven by the mix of products both in off road vehicles and motorcycles, continuing a trend we've seen throughout 2019. 4th quarter earnings per share on a GAAP basis was $1.58, adjusted earnings per share was $1.83 flat with last year's fourth quarter. The 2019 fourth quarter included approximately an incremental $0.06 per share of tariff and foreign exchange headwind along with increased promotions and warranty costs, which was offset by increased volume and mix manufacturing efficiency and a lower tax versus the prior year.
All segments grew for the year on a GAAP adjusted earnings per share was $6.32, which was in line with our expectations. The full year EPS included negative impact of tariff and foreign exchange well as continued investment in strategic initiatives, which was somewhat offset by a combination of increased volume, operational improvements, a lower tax rate and lower share count. Gross profit margins on a GAAP and adjusted basis increased 40 basis points for the fourth quarter, driven by favorable product mix and operating leverage, which was somewhat offset by tariffs, foreign exchange and higher warranty expense. We've provided more detail on gross profit margin performance for 2019 in the supplemental section of this presentation. Turning to driven by ORV whole goods sales and PG and A.
ORV whole goods sales were driven by increased unit sales as well as a heavier mix side by side sales, which drove average selling prices up by 10%. For the full year ORB slash snowmobile segment sales were up 7% driven by all categories. Motorcycle sales increased 37% on a GAAP basis and 38% on an adjusted basis in the 4th quarter. Increased India motorcycle sales, primarily in the heavyweight category, were driven by the introduction of the Challenger. Full year motorcycle sales increased 7% on a GAAP and adjusted basis, driven by the introduction of the FTR and Challenger Bikes, partially offset by lower slingshot sales in anticipation of the new model introduction.
Global adjacent market sales decreased 1% in the 4th quarter. Lower sales in our commercial government defense business were the key drivers. For the full year, global adjacent market sales increased 4%. Aftermarket sales were up 4% in the 4th quarter, with both TAP and our other aftermarket brands increasing sales during the quarter. TAF sales were up 1% and our other aftermarket brands grew sales by 22% in Q4.
The strong performance in our other aftermarket brands was driven primarily by Snow related sales. Full year aftermarket sales were up 2% over last year. Our Boat segment sales were down 7% for the quarter, as we sought to protect dealer inventory levels given poor weather conditions percent given we completed the acquisition mid year 2018. Organically, sales were down slightly. International and PG and A sales are embedded within our segments.
Our international sales were were mostly offset by growth in Asia Pacific and sales where sales were up 17%. National sales were up 4% versus 2018 and up 9% on a constant currency basis. Our parts, garments and accessories sales increased 7% during the quarter and 9% for the full year. Now let me switch gears and move on to our guidance for 2020. Our guidance for the full year 2020 is as follows: total company sales are expected to be up in the range of 2% to 4% versus 2019.
The 2020 sales growth includes the following assumptions. The overall powersports market is expected to grow at a similar rate to last year. In the low single digits percent range with the off road vehicle market growing, particularly side by sides, and the motorcycle market continuing to decline. Lastly, the pontoon market is expected to grow 2019, given we took a 3.5 price 3.5 percent price increase in January of 2019, which will not repeat in 2020. In fact, you will recall that earlier this month, we took price reductions on a few of our razors to be more in line with competitive pricing on comparable models.
Remember, this is an MSRP pricing adjustment and we anticipate lower promotional spend to offset the lower price levels. Adjusted earnings per share for 2020 is expected to be in the range of $6.80 to $7.05 compared to the full year 2019 adjusted EPS of $6.32 an increase of 8% to 12%. Moving down the P and L, our 2020 earnings per share guidance assumes the following. We anticipate that adjusted gross profit margins will be up 40 to 70 basis points due to ongoing operational improvements and lower promotional costs. A portion of the improvement is driven by our plan to repurpose of our promotional dollars and ORV, which are reported as contra sales, and the selling and marketing expense, which were reported in operating expenses.
While tariff costs remain an ongoing issue, we have made great strides in our mitigation efforts as well as success around exemptions. Tariff costs in 2020 is anticipated to be down slightly from 2019. Our guidance assumes the following related to tariffs. China 301 List 3 tariff remains at 25%. List 4A remains at 7.5%.
No change to the retaliatory tariff is contemplated and we've included in our guidance the impact of all exemptions we received to date, which equal approximately 10,000,000 as well as the anticipated recovery Adjusted operating expenses are expected to improve slightly as a percent of sales down 10 to 20 basis points in 2020, which includes the increase in selling more effectively execute programs. Income from financial services is expected to be about flat with last year. Retail financing availability remains at acceptable levels with the penetration rate expected to be in the mid-thirty percent range. While dealer inventory turns are expected to improve, is anticipated to lower remains a priority in the near term. Interest The income tax rate is expected to be approximately 22% for the full year of 2020.
Share count is expected to be up 2% to 3% minimal buybacks of our stock contemplated at this time. Lastly, while currency is expected to negatively impacted 2020 pretax profit, incremental impact is significantly smaller than in past years. We anticipate the currency will be a headwind by about $8,000,000 to pretax profit. Largely due to the Canadian dollar in euro. We've planned 2020 assuming the average Euro to USD at $1.10 and the CAD USD at $0.75.
As it relates 150 to 200 basis points in the first quarter given the mix of product shipped specifically lower high margin side by side sales and higher motorcycle sales, which carry a lower gross margin. Additionally, Q1 operating expenses will be at levels similar to for 2019, which is essentially the run rate level of costs we exited 2019 at. The result of all these moving pieces is that our expected 20 quarter earnings per share will be slightly more than half of our 2019 first quarter EPS results of $1.08 per share. Now, let me provide a little bit more detail on our sales guidance for our segments. ORV snowmobile sales are expected to be up in the low single digits percent.
With snow up mid single digits percent and ORV sales up low single digits percent. Improvement will be driven by new products and improved retail execution. Motorcycle sales are anticipated to be up in the low double digit percent range, driven by new products. Global adjacent market sales are expected to be up high single digits percent with growth expected in all product lines. Aftermarket segment sales are expected to be up low to midsingledigitpercent with improved growth expected from TAP.
Our Boat segment sales are expected to be up about flat to last year. PG and A sales, which are embedded within our segments, are expected to increase the high profit margins to improve over 2019 on a comparable basis. Please see the supplemental section in the presentation for additional details. Operating cash flow finished 2019 at $655,000,000, up 37% driven primarily by improved working capital. We anticipate 2020 operating cash flow will be at similar levels to 2019.
Our capital deployment framework remains unchanged. Capital expenditures are expected to supply chain transformation program. Our debt to total capital ratio of 60% is down from 20 eighteen's ratio 69% as anticipated and we expect to drive this ratio lower in 2020. Subject to the board's approval, 2020 will become our 25th year of a consistently increasing dividend to shareholders, which is termed a dividend aristocrat. The terminology initially referred to S and P 500 companies with long dividend track records, but more recently has been applied universally to various sized companies with such a long history of increasing dividends.
An exclusive club will be very proud to be associated with. Our share repurchases were minimal in 2019 given our focus on debt reduction. Have approximately 3,200,000 shares remaining under the current board authorization, but we do not anticipate significant share repurchase in 2020 given our desire to reduce the debt level. With that, I'll turn it back over to Scott for some final thoughts.
Thanks, Mike. The resiliency of both the consumer and the broader economy remains a tailwind for the powersports industry and our 2020 plan anticipates those trends continuing. Recession risk is likely to rise throughout the year and we'll remain vigilant and ready with our contingency plans. Agility is key to navigating evolving market and competitive landscape and our deployment of lean tools drives us to simplify our product lineup while accelerating product innovation and introductions. Across the portfolio, expect us to be a more nimble and aggressive competitor.
Strategic sourcing is gaining momentum and remains on track to be the most impactful productivity initiative ever undertaken at Polaris. Coupled with more efficient and accurately targeted promo spend and our ongoing tariff mitigation initiatives, Increased operating leverage will be a noteworthy driver of this year's earnings expansion productivity is better with growth and our international strategy is helping to make that happen in 2020. With expectations for stronger growth in the Asia Pacific region, Our new finished subsidiary, allowing us to go direct in all Scandinavia markets and our Vietnam JV driving improved margins, we have built a solid foundation for global expansion in 2020 and beyond. The phase 1 trade agreement with China prevented additional tariffs from hitting Polaris and the more conciliatory tone in the negotiations provides confidence that progress will continue. Our exemption requests are beginning to appear and we are extremely pleased to have a lower highly efficient growth company drives everything we do and governs our plans for the future.
Investments in digital will continue to engage and delight customers, giving Polaris products another means of differentiating themselves from the competition. Consolidating our electrification efforts will accelerate the process of delivering innovative profitable vehicles to win in a rapidly changing powersports environment. And with the continued emphasis on safety and quality coupled with design to value, we will deliver the product quality and margin expansion our customers and shareholders demand and deserve. The future remains bright and I am confident in our team and our strategy as we lead the Powersports industry into a new decade. With that, I'll turn it over to Gary to open the line for questions.
Session. The first question is from Greg Badishkanian with Citi. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks. You know, first question, just broadly speaking, you're expecting the powersports market to increase low single digit in 2020. I'm just wondering what you're expecting from a sort of a macro environment. And then I have one follow-up to that.
The macro environment, we still expect GDP is going to be in that 2 to 3 range and the Fed continues to be very aggressive and that tends to help markets and consumer sentiment as well. So, we think the overall power sports industry remains healthy. But we're coming off a reasonably good year and we believe that that low single digit growth is good for us in the industry.
Okay. And then, specifically on ATVs, because you saw really nice improvement there in 4Q is up like mid single digit versus trend of down mid single digit. So maybe just talk a little bit about that segment and what led to the improvement there?
Yes. We are still proud to be the number one player in ATVs in the global market, but we did lose some share last year. It is the most price sensitive, part of the market that we play in. And we probably took more risk there with our price increases last year and I think throughout the year, we learned from that. We made adjustments.
And, I think we exited the year feeling comfortable that we know how to be very competitive and still make good money in the ATV market. I mean, the Sportsman ATV, the innovation continues to be strong. We like that aspect of the business. It's just it's not growing at the same rate as side by sides, which is where we put a little more emphasis. But we don't lose sight that we need to remain competitive in that, price sensitive market.
The next question is from Jamie Katz with Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Hi good morning. I think I heard you guys say that the pontoon industry was expected to be up low single at a low single digit rate this quarter. But you guys have about flat, for sales and I think Maureen Max put out some pretty interesting numbers last week. So I'm curious if you can sort of reconcile the current cadence of demand with the slowing market share gains?
Yes. So we, I guess a couple of things, Jamie. 1, the low single digits for the pontoon was for all of 2020. Bennington continued to gain share last year. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we're protecting dealer inventory.
We think we're in a good spot, but similar to what we're doing with side by side in the first quarter is we're making sure that we're not shipping ahead of schedule. It's to be seen in terms of how the weather will work out as we get into 2020, but we think we're going to ourselves to be in a good spot with the dealers having the right level of inventory. And, if the market ends up better, we're in a position to be able to ratchet up if we need to. And the market's not quite as good. We've got dealer inventory in a good spot.
Okay. And then can you comment on what gives you guys some confidence that some of these issues in the global adjacent markets category begin to alleviate. I think there were a couple different you pointed out to for weakness now, because it looks like we have that, or you guys have that picking up pretty significantly last year? And with respect to that, what are you seeing for the European products, as far as demand is concerned, things like, Axsome, Google. Thanks.
I don't think we've underperformed nearly to the degree you're referring to, Jamie, but I will tell you, we're, we've made good product moves and leadership moves in our global adjacent market. Fleet continues to do very well at Exum and they're continuing to do, take share in that duopoly. And, we feel good about the outlook for that business, our Gupeel business and their partnership with picnic, continues to serve us well. And we've got good electric products continuing to flow into that market. And as we consolidated production of Jim and Taylor done last year, we started to see the benefits of that move later in the year.
So obviously the, the Polaris government and, military sales has it's a bit of a lumpy business, but we like where we're positioned there. So overall, global adjacent market is solid and got a good outlook.
The next question is from Craig Kennison with Robert W. Baird. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I think Well, the question is on RFM. And I think you mentioned early in the call that you plan to lower stocking profiles. What motivated that decision to lower profiles?
We, as I also pointed out on the call. Our turns are better than anybody else in the industry. So we're feeling good about that. What part of our RFM plan is a regular ongoing dialogue with our dealers. And as we did that, we just realized there were certain models as we are improving our delivery performance that they don't need as much stock up.
So part of what you're seeing is just a reflection of how much better our delivery performance is really nothing more than that.
And then sort of on a related note with respect to the side by side market, maybe walk through priorities for Steve Menneto as he takes over there? Is it product? Is it dealer relations, supply chain market share? What's the mandate there?
I mean, the mandate is pretty simple. Market share gains and profitable growth. And I really don't know that there's anybody in the world that I have more confidence in to be able to deliver that in our off road vehicle business. Chris Musso did a nice job and I think Steve Meneto comes in with just tremendously relevant and experience. And, internally, I call it seeding focus because I mean, he really has a relentless focus on results.
You saw that in Indian. And, and already, he's making a positive impact. So I think really it's retail execution market share gains and profitable growth is what we expect. And I said in my prepared remarks, not only did Indian become a $500,000,000 business pretty quickly, when he left the business, had the highest customer satisfaction scores in the industry. So I think dealer and customer satisfaction will also improve.
And just really the execution of our sales force, I think you'll see a market improvement there.
Thank you.
I could go on.
The next question is from Scott Stember with CL King. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions.
Good morning.
Good
morning. Mike, just talking about the first quarter guidance, did I hear correct at the end of the day, we're talking about half of what we did in the first quarter of last year. And maybe if that was true, just walk through again some of the mechanics behind that.
Yes. So it's probably just a little better than half. I think it really comes down to mix is playing a big factor. We're essentially it's typically a pretty low quarter from a side by side shipment perspective. And we're dialing that back given what Scott referenced in terms of RFM as well as just making sure that we protect, where we see dealer inventory.
But we are ramping pretty heavily from a motorcycle standpoint. You can imagine with the new Slingshot out, as well as the success we've seen with Challenger, that gives us a little bit of a mix challenge from a GP standpoint. And then although we're not increasing our operating expenses substantially year over year, the run rate we left Q4 when you add that to the mix headwind that we're contending with is really the challenge. But look, we'll push the team hard to make sure that we drive that performance in Q1. And we think it's going to position us really well given the work Steve and team are doing around retail execution within ORV.
And last, just on tariffs, looks like you guys have had some good success with getting some exemptions. And I think you said that there was some retroactives in there as well. Maybe just give us Can you give us a feeling for the level that you think that still could come or benefits that could come next year?
Yes, we've made good progress. I'm really proud of the work that our team has done, on all aspects of tariffs. So remember, it's both mitigation an exemption request. And I think for most of the year, exemptions lagged the mitigation efforts towards the end of the year. As I talked about on the 3rd quarter call, we were starting to feel more confident and that is starting to flow through.
Given how that part of the government works. I'm not about to guesstimate what else can happen from here, but we're pleased with where we are now and we don't expect it to to get worse throughout the year. So that gives us a level of comfort going forward. And
Scott, just,
I mean, just to put some of the numbers in perspective, because we didn't spend a lot of time in the call talking about it. We ended 2019 with tariffs being around $90,000,000. So that's obviously came in lower than we were expecting. Part of that is we had lower volume in 4th quarter than we were originally anticipating. But given where phase 1 deal was shaking out as well as the continued effort by the organization to push, tariff mitigation, we were able to drive that number down.
And then as I referenced in my, prepared remarks, tariffs will be down slightly year over year. And that includes the exemptions as well as the recovery. The recovery process is a bit cumbersome. We essentially have to gather up everything that we've paid and then eventually submit that to customs. And so we're trying to figure out the exact timing of that.
We're assuming that the majority of that will happen in the first half in terms of the way we've got our guidance built. But as Scott indicated, the government can be a little bit fickle on this and the exemption process is still relatively new. So We've got as much as we know built in there. And I think the key message is that we're managing what we can manage and we've driven the number down year over year.
Got it. That's all I have. Thanks.
The next question is from Robin Farley with UBS. Please go ahead.
Thanks. I was going to ask on the tariff situation as well. And I know you've got some exemptions late in the year, but it's still obviously a significant amount of tariffs that you're paying. I guess, how much longer would you be fine paying that, $90,000,000 a year before you would say, let's move production to Mexico so that we're competitively on on the same ground that, that other manufacturers are?
Let me be clear. We're not fine playing $90,000,000. I mean, we accept it and we can deal with it. And, the fact that it's not increasing year over year gives us operating leverage that we're pleased with. We are constantly evaluating where we manufacture and what makes sense for our customers and our employees and our shareholders.
And I tell you right now what's baked into our plan is that we will continue to assemble vehicles where they are. And our expectation is we're going to see continued improvement in the tariff environment and we'll continue to evaluate if that doesn't become the case. But right now, we've got a reasonable plan baked in and I think 8% to 12% earnings guidance in spite of the significant tariffs is pretty darn
good. Okay. And then just one follow-up on the comments about Q1. Just to clarify, you talked about the margin impact because of lower mix of side by side. But I just want to clarify, you're also talking about because of the RFM adjustments, actual lower side by side unit shipments in Q1, right, not just lower mix, but actually in absolute terms lower year over year as well?
I just want to clarify that because I think there was just some confusion about that. Thanks.
Yes. There would be lower side by side sales shipments.
The next question is from Michael Swartz with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Mike, just clarification. I think in your statements, you mentioned that maybe just want to make sure I heard this right. In the quarter side by side, ASPs were up 10% or were you talking about overall ORV?
Overall ORV was up 10%, but it's clearly being driven by side by sides.
Right. Okay. Thank you. And then just with with the, the, sorry, the 22% growth in core aftermarket sales this quarter, I may have missed it. What was behind that?
And then did you say what your outlook was for whole whole good revenue growth for 2020 and ORV?
Yes, we didn't talk whole good growth We obviously talked about what our segment sales margin growth is and we talked about the low to low to mid singles for ORV. And obviously with PG And A being up, that can give you a sense that the unit sales are probably towards the low end. For aftermarket, the growth in the non tap portion was really driven by snow sales, snow related sales. We saw really good performance everywhere from the Midwest to the mountains. And so that really drove the climb and 509 sales in that business.
The piece that we didn't mention is, TAP was up, which was good. The retail side of TAP was up anywhere from mid to high single And so we continue to see really good performance there and, more contraction, more on the wholesale, which tends to be the lower margin side of the business. And that's more intentional than it is unintentional.
The next question is from James Hardiman with Wedbush Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. I just want to make sure I understand stood a couple of things that you've said. So, Orvastiet was up 10% in the quarter help me sort of connect the dots between that and ATVs were actually stronger than side by sides. Sounds like you're saying mix was a positive, but at least there that mix is a negative. So what's the other type of mix that's driving such a big ASP increase?
Yes. So I mean, the thing you got to think through is we have a pretty high attachment rate from a PG and A standpoint. So when you put that against the side by side versus an ATV, even with ATV having a stronger retail quarter, it just can't move the needle.
Okay. And I guess bigger picture, how do I think about that for 2020? And you're basically telling us that at least in the first quarters, side by sides are going to be down in terms of shipments. I'm assuming that won't be the case for the year, but ultimately, as I think about a low single digit ORV number for the year, what's how do I think about ASP in that context?
Well, I mean, the ASP, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, will be positive, but it's not going to be anywhere near as much. I mean, I think there was a pretty substantial mix calibration that happened, within 2019. If you have to remember that we came in pretty heavy with our factory choice, around our Ranger product lineup. The North Star Ranger has been incredibly successful. We don't expect that to change in terms of growth year over year.
You're just not going to get as much top. And then when you add into that, that we had raised prices anywhere from 3% to 3.5%. And we don't anticipate that being the case in 20 In fact, we've taken some of the MSRPs down. It'll be positive, but just nowhere near as much as we've seen so far.
And remember, the first quarter James is also is that reset, if you will, of dealer inventory. I mean, we ended at +5 And I said that's at the higher end of our comfort zone and we're going to adjust the profile. So really it's positioning us for a much better last 3 quarters of the year. Don't read anything more into it than that.
Right. And you ultimately expect side by side to continue to outpace ATVs for the year, right?
Forever.
Yes. Forever. Okay. And then just to clarify on the tariff question, So if I'm hearing this right, you're, the recovered tariffs that you paid in 2019 are included in the 2020 gross profit numbers in terms of the exemptions that you've already gotten, I'm assuming that that's going to continue to be the case. So as we move forward here, for every exemption that you get, let's say you get another $50,000,000 taken off that's going to be $100,000,000 of gross margin benefit.
Is that how to think about things?
Well, I'm not going to comment on those numbers you just used because I'm going to notionally, notionally, you're correct. As we get exemptions, the way it works, when we're notified, our team goes through and takes a week or 2 to figure it out, because is not an easy process. There's a lot of stipulations and parameters in there. Once we've identified that our components are exempt, we take an immediate revaluation in our inventory. So that helps profit immediately for anything that we have inventory as well as shipping.
And then anything that we've paid to customs, that's when we start aggregating that up and we'll put in an application and then we'll essentially get reimbursed for any of the tariff that we've had. It is a long encumbersome process, both in terms of gathering the paperwork as well as the filing and getting the cash. That's where we we have very little experience. We've gotten some money recovered, and it came in the form of a lot of different checks and a very long process. So given how much money we're talking about, as I mentioned in my script, just over $10,000,000, we're going to be working aggressively to try and get that in as soon as we can.
Okay,
that's helpful.
Thanks guys.
The next question is from Joe Altobello with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Hey, guys. Good morning. So first question on Seetic Sourcing. You guys have not quantified this in the past.
I'm curious how much savings you're expecting in 2020? And how much of a driver that's going to be or is expected to be for margin expansion this year?
Like I said, the long term outlook for that's still the highest productivity product we've ever had. The 2019 2020 numbers are significant, but it's not increasing much year over year. We exit 2020 with a very big and helpful number, but the process of getting there doesn't really ramp up until the second of the year. So, where it's just unhelpful to get into quantifying the exact dollar amounts because then you start to compare it year over year and whatnot. But it was a good number last year.
It'll be about the same amount this year, but exit on a ramping rate that's probably 3x what we'll gain this year.
I think, Joe, the key component is we're still heavy in the investment cycle. And what I mean is that, as Scott indicated, the savings are on the right trajectory. We have a pretty heavy team internally that's being dedicated to this as we work through wave 2 and there's obviously several waves of this as well as the engineering work that's associated that we're moving suppliers or changing the supply base. So the encouraging thing is, is that the savings are on pace. It's encouraging that year over year, it's adding to both gross profit and operating profit.
And as Scott indicated, we start picking up momentum as we get into 2021.
Got it. Okay. And then just switching gears to the ORD leadership change, back in December. I'm curious how it impacts your go to market strategy. I think Scott you started talking about this earlier, but it seems like the MSR rollback, for example, on razors was a part of that.
And I guess should we expect you guys to be more proactive on pricing from a motion on the ground given that change going forward?
No. Remember what I talked about Steve Background. His family owned a dealership. He ran sales. So his his ability to listen to understand and then react and implement changes based on input from the field is unparalleled.
I mean, he's just really, really good at it. And, but he's also really good at focusing on the bottom line. So I think what happens is you get a mix of of listening to react into the dealer and the sales force, but also being very protective of what we do with margins. Mike talked about one of the things we're doing is actually decreasing ORV promotions a little bit and shifting some of that over to operating expense in marketing and brand messaging. And ultimately Steve knows is if you drive that right brand awareness, you don't have to give us away as much as on price.
So I think you're going to see just overall, excellent execution by the Salesforce and team and giving them better tools to compete.
Okay, great. Thank you guys.
The next question is from David MacGregor with Longbow Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning. It's Colton West on for David MacGregor. Thanks for taking my question. So I guess to start off, given the some of the recent media coverage of the new Slingshot. Everyone seems excited for the new auto drive transmission.
And I'm sure you guys are too. Can you update us on the production and subsequent channel fill timeline? For that new model?
Yes, we're ramping up production now. I think we'll start shipping, early part of March. I was at the reveal in Vegas and there's a lot of excitement about it. And as there should be, it's a really refined excellent fun to drive vehicle. And I think, the team's done a nice job and the dealers that I've talked to are really excited about it.
We've got we're not vetting the farm on this one. It's, it's an aggressive plan, but certainly something we feel like is quite reasonable given the benefits of the product and the year over year comparisons as we tried to exit the LE-nine products throughout most of the year. So we're encouraged, but it really will be a second quarter play for us.
Okay, thanks. And then just follow-up speaking to the broader motorcycle category, motorcycles were up or Indian motorcycles, excuse me, were up low single digits, driven by Challenger. So I guess the progress is going well there. Are you can you say or give any detail on whether or not you believe you're taking share from other players in the heavy touring category despite it being a seasonally small quarter for motorcycles? And then also, are you seeing any signs of cannibalization of the in line following the Challenger intro?
Yes. Well, you remember it's a very, very low quarter, but as we said on the call, we did take share in the 4th quarter and we expect that to continue in 2020. But yes, it there's we expected a little bit of cannibalization, but they're very different products. That fixed bearing liquid cooled engine, I mean, it's a tremendous bike, but it's not for everyone. And I think there's still a good partner portfolio for the chieftain product.
And we expect a challenger obviously to outperform this year as it approaches a very large segment of the market that we hadn't previously played in.
The next question is from Gerrick Johnson with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. On your morning. On your retail page, you showed side by side retail, the growth is coming from Ranger in general, and you didn't call out the Pro X. So wondering what the status of the Pro X P is, the rollout of the, Pro X P and and where it is and how much more you have to go and how it's performing. Thank you.
Well, the consumers that have bought the Pro XP absolutely love it. They see it for the excellent performance, the refined product that it is. It did, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we did our model year 20s were slightly below our ramp expectations, but improved in December. So I think the more our dealers and, we're able to tell people about the products, the better they feel. And I think you'll see us make some improvements in that razor lineup throughout the year that should be very helpful to us.
But certainly, as it was in the 4th quarter, Ranger in general continue to be the key drivers of side by side growth. But we're very optimistic about the razor portfolio as we move throughout the year.
Okay, great. And then, and lastly for me, litigation expense in 2019, I was behind your guidance and the guidance grows in 2020. So, what's the outlook for litigation and when does that, that call outs start to go down? Thank you.
Yes, I mean, it's tough to say. It's obviously public information in terms of some of the legal cases that we're dealing with. And we obviously don't comment directly on those. But I think the message is we are putting the right money behind it. We've got the right team, both internally and externally in place.
We feel confident in our position and we're going to defend that. And that's we'll keep the street status as we work through that.
The next question is from Tim Conder with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Hey, gentlemen, just a couple of things. I want to circle back on the TV, the 500 CCN below, what are you again, it seems like you're maybe shifting away from that segment of the market. Is that the right inter invitation to have or maybe just deemphasizing, I guess, is maybe a better way to put it. And then, from the supply chain perspective, some things in the news, unfortunately, to ask the question here, but any impact from the coronavirus impact on the whole supply chain? I know it's, again, at it's only been a couple of weeks, but anything at this point that you're hearing, seeing or concerned about?
It is not correct to assume that we are deemphasizing the 500 and below segment. It is again, as I said earlier, it's the most price sensitive part of the market. And when we did our price increases last year, that by definition took the biggest hit. So we had some adjustments we needed to make. And I think we feel comfortable with how we've navigated that.
We're working with our dealers to make sure that they're competitive with that segment of the market. It's not going to drive profitable growth forever, but it's important for the brand and it's important for our dealers. So, we feel good about where we're positioned there. We're certainly not walking away. It was just the early, actually the 1st 3 quarters of the year, the impact of the price increases hurt us more in that segment.
The canola virus is something we're watching closely. We have limited we're actually stopped to travel to China right now while we sort through that. It's no secret that we have a strong team and business there and we do source some parts there. We don't see a disruption, from that. It's really, the restrictions that they have are more on people moving parts moving.
So we feel good about our supply chain being able to continue to function smoothly.
Okay. And then lastly, gentlemen, Granite small quarter and so forth and then the challenger launch on that, but the motorcycle operating loss in the quarter, anything of note there beyond those points?
Yeah. So it's a couple of things, Tim. 1, tariffs, we continue to have inbound tariffs and then obviously with the ramp of a pole a, producing the retaliatory has started to come down. So that took a little bit of pressure, off the fourth quarter. Really the issue was, as you well know, we've had a couple of recalls that were announced both on our Indian heavyweight as well as the Slingshot in the fourth quarter and The heavyweight recall extended to all heavy weights.
It was an easy fix, a small fix, a quick fix, but it was still substantial in terms of dollars on a relatively small quarter of of income.
And Mike, can you quantify that just the collective recall expense in Q4?
Yes, we haven't provided that publicly, Tim.
The next question is from Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Scott, I was wondering if you could just talk, a little bit about the decision to create the SVP of electrification. Is that something driven by something you've seen from the consumer or dealer portion, something you've seen maybe evolve with the technology or is it a response to maybe something you've seen from some competition?
To anything. What it is is just a reflection of what I've learned over the last decade in this. We've had a number of runs, at the electric portfolio. And, if you think about the powersports industry and how it tends to lag, it's a 5 to 10 year lag of automotive in almost every aspect. And if you just think of what's happened there, what's happened here.
And, we feel like there's a bit of an inflection point now, not because what our competitors are doing, just from what our knowledge is about how we lag the the auto industry. And so we're looking at what we've got in the portfolio and it's not shabby. We have some very decent electric products there and our global adjacent markets has a good capability there. But if we look at the next 3 to 5 years, we know that we're going to have to be more competitive in our core powersports market. And, Chris's experience to help us do that was just too, too good to pass up.
So, we're already seeing in just 6 weeks in the role is making good progress. And it's got to take some investments and we want to be really, really wise and smart as we go down that path. And, Chris is the perfect person to help us do that. But the board is excited about it. I'm excited about it.
And I was really clear in my remarks. This is still about adding to our a couple of years ago. So, we're going to be able to make sure that we're going to
be able to make sure that
we're going to be able to make sure that we're going to be able
to make sure that
we and you've got some interesting electric product there. Maybe it's too early, but has Chris been able to sort of give a range of investment needed over the next 3 to 5 years in order to achieve that profitable growth?
He's given us actually, I mean, he's working very closely with Maneto and Daugherty and the rest of the team. We have some general ideas and it's kind of in line with other investments we've made. I don't think you'll see it be an outsized investment that spikes compared to other stuff we've done in the past.
The next question is from Mark Smith with Lake Street Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi guys. First off, can you walk through or give us any breakdown on the Slingshots impact to the 2020 guidance within motorcycles?
Well, it's, it's obviously a big portion of the double low double digit growth that we indicated. If you think about it, there's this whipsaw effect where we intentionally were bringing shipments down throughout 2019 as we were draining out the LE-nine the prior power plant inventory and trying to get the channel set up for recharging it with the new auto drive slingshot, all new slingshot. And given the ASPs that we have on that, I mean, if you look at the average retail is somewhere in the low 20 to high 20s, that gives you a good sense that pushing that unit volume up year over year is obviously driving a decent portion of that. Now, it's not all of it. Challenger, we anticipate we'll continue to have strong growth as we head in to 2020 as will FTR.
Okay. And then last question for me, just kind of broad based. Scott, as we look at the competitive environment, people continue to come out with good product and it's a competitive environment. How much of the future do you see really coming from? Maybe not as much product, but kind of telling story, whether it be digital and how much that comes down to your new hires and helping kind of expand customer base and tell story of who you are and what your products are?
Mark, one of the things that I still love about the power sports industry is how it's just great for capitalist like me. I mean, it is a very, very competitive market. And it always has been, and I think it always will be. And I like betting on our team to win the competitive battle over the long term. I mean, I mean, it was not easy working through some of the recall issues we had and the tariff issues we've had, but I feel good.
It's going to be a less there's no drama in our plan this year. It's a pretty straightforward year. I feel really good about our ability of a team to make no mistake. We still expect to win with product. I mean, whether I said 6 years ago, I told our team, we're going to win with horsepower and travel suspension forever.
So it is one of those deals where we're going to make those investments and I think you're going to be thrilled when you see the products that come out this year across the portfolio. But what we expect Vic to do in his Chief Digital Officer role and Chris to do leading the direct electrification aspects, those are going to be key contributors and don't underestimate what's already happening with Polaris Adventures as we give people a different way of, of enjoying the Polaris brand. So I think across the portfolio, you're going to see us better with customer engagement better with safety and quality, better with our brands, but continuing to expect to win with product.
Great. Thank you.
This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Richard Edwards for any closing remarks.
Thank you. And I just want to thank everyone again for participating in the call this morning, and we look forward to talking to you again after the first quarter. Thanks again. Goodbye.
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.