Welcome to the 21st Deutsche Bank Global Consumer Conference. 21st time ex-COVID held here in Paris, and it's great to have everybody back here again. My name is Gerry Gallagher. I'm the Co-Head of European Company Research at Deutsche Bank, and I sometimes masquerade as a tobacco analyst as well, on the side. With me today is Emmanuel Babeau, the Chief Financial Officer of Philip Morris, who I believe will open up with a few comments, and then we'll go into a fireside chat format, and I'd be very welcome for anybody to raise their hands in the audience at any time to ask a question they may have. With that, over to you.
Good morning, Gerry, and thank you for having us. Good morning, everyone. Great to have this next 40 minutes together. So allow me to start with a few introductory comments. As always, you know, please read carefully our forward-looking and cautionary statements. So just a few words of introduction to confirm that we are on course to deliver a strong performance for 2024. You have seen that our Q1 was excellent. We confirm that we expect a solid Q2, and that is pointing to a H1 that will show strong growth in terms of organic performance or before Forex, if you want both for revenue and adjusted EPS evolution. This performance, of course, is being built on the very strong momentum that we're enjoying on our smoke-free portfolio.
IQOS continues to enjoy a nice dynamism. First of all, in the market where IQOS has been historically, I would say, successful, like Japan, you have seen that, in Q1, we were still very nicely above 10% growth in Japan, and we keep growing our market share in the country. It's really important to see that IQOS has this potential over time to deliver sustained growth. We are also seeing a number of, I would say, emerging growth relay in the Western world, in countries such as Germany and Spain, and that bodes very well, of course, for the continuation of the growth of IQOS in the developed economy. Then we have all these new economies where we see an emerging pool of promising market. We've been talking a lot about Egypt.
We see now clearly Indonesia with very good traction. We see the growth country with great potential. We see now Mexico that is starting to have nice traction on IQOS. So we see a growing list of country in this new economy with a nice potential that is firming up, and that's very nice news. So IQOS, that keeps doing well, and of course, next to that, we have ZYN, that is having a very strong performance in the US Remember, the growth in Q1 for ZYN in the US was close to 80%. It is clear that this very strong growth is creating some tension on availability, whether at the level of some retailers or on some SKUs.
We are making good progress in order to expand our capacity on ZYN in the US, and thanks to that, we believe that this tension on supply should gradually improve as we progress through Q2 and Q3, and we believe that we're gonna be back to a normal situation in the course of Q4. We are confirming that we are targeting a volume for ZYN in the US in 2024 of around 560 million cans, and we are working on a new location for production of ZYN in the US in 2025. And of course, in due course, when we are able to share more about it, we will. On top of the momentum on our smoke-free portfolio, we are also seeing good resilience on our combustible business.
You may have seen that in Q1, we are almost flat, actually, when it comes to combustible evolution, and we continue to see even some emerging market like Turkey, with very nice growth on combustible. So on top of a rather favorable evolution on volume, we see also very strong pricing power. You have seen that we are north of 7% in Q1, and we are now targeting 6% to 7% price on CC for 2024, which is more than what we thought at the beginning of the year. So good evolution on volume, good resilience, I would say, on CC, and capacity to price, we may discuss this during the Q&A. So all that, of course, is building the framework of a strong performance in 2024.
We are reiterating this morning our guidance for a growth before Forex impact of our adjusted EPS between 9% and 11%, and we are revising upward our guidance in term of dollar term, in term of reported growth for the adjusted EPS. We have the Forex impact that is easing, so the headwind is easing. We were previously expecting -$0.36, and based on the prevailing rate today, we are expecting -$0.29 negative, so a bit better. And that would generate a growth of the adjusted EPS between +4.2% to +6.2%.
For us, delivering performance in dollar terms is a very big objective, and we are doing our utmost, both in terms of price action and in terms of cost management, to mitigate the potential negative headwind that we are seeing coming from the Forex... I think what is very important is to understand that we are building our performance on what is a very strong financial growth model coming from the smoke-free portfolio. Our smoke-free portfolio enjoy today a superior financial impact on the company. If you look at the revenue on average, on a per-unit basis on our smoke-free portfolio, it's 2.5 x higher in dollar terms than our average combustible business. And if you look at the gross profit, it's 2.6 x higher. So what does it mean?
Well, it means that we have a fast-growing smoke-free portfolio, but that on top of the growth in volume, it is coming with a very positive mix impact on our financial performance, and it has a very positive mix impact, and it is giving us the capacity to have a positive margin trajectory in the future. They also enjoy the smoke-free product, a higher gross margin rate. And already in 2024, we are, based on the current currency, targeting to improve operating margin, both organically but in reported terms as well. And that's also a very big objective that we have. Just a last word to, but certainly not, you know, the least important.
We are extremely proud because 48 hours ago, we've been named by Forbes as the number one company in their list of the Net Zero leader for greenhouse gas emission, for the work we are doing in order to decrease or compensate our emission. It's a fantastic performance to be simply the best among all the US companies that have been ranked by Forbes, and I think it's a tribute to the work that we are doing on this space, of the impact of our operation on the planet, which is complementing what is our first and biggest mission, which is to bring, invent, develop the product that will allow one billion smoker to switch to better alternative. Thank you, Gerry. These are the words I wanted to say than introduction.
Thank you, Emmanuel. There's a few things that have come out from your opening comments I'd like to pick up on. You talked about Japan and the growth in share. I think I'm right in saying for three years prior to the current period, your share of the total nicotine tobacco market in Japan had been relatively stable, post a very strong rate of growth, and you've now picked up that growth again. Could you talk about ILUMA and what the product is, and why you guys are so positive and passionate about what it can deliver for the business?
Yeah, sure, Gerry. In fact, if you look back where we were before the launch of ILUMA, I mean, we had been already making very nice inroad in term of developing IQOS presence in Japan. It was a bit more than 20% market share. But it's true that ILUMA came and deliver a kind of new boost to the market share and to the growth. That is clearly, for me, coming from the superior quality of the experience. Really, we've been deleting all the pain points of the blade IQOS experience. ILUMA is intuitive. It starts on its own, it stops on its own. The flavor experience, the plume experience is even better than with the previous IQOS.
And I think we made, you know, several steps forward in terms of lifestyle experience. We've been also very innovative when it comes to consumables. So we've been developing a range of sophisticated products with our TEREA brand that is proving to be very attractive for the Japanese consumer. And I think it just shows the potential over a long period of time for IQOS not to be a kind of, you know, one success and then that's it, but really to generate growth and gain.
I mean, today, the heat-not-burn category in Tokyo has more than 50% market share if you take the combined heat-not-burn and combustible. So that's it. In Tokyo, heat-not-burn now is the first category beyond combustible. So it tells what's going to happen in Japan over the coming quarters or years. It can take some time, and it just shows that there is no glass ceiling, and the potential of the heat-not-burn category is huge.
On that point, could you... There's this running debate, you know, does heat-not-burn only work in low-tar markets? Can you address that and tell us how you think, how you guys think about it?
Well, Gerry, that, that's something that we are hearing very often, but the reality is that we don't see that. I mean, if you take the Russian market, that is, of course, no longer a priority. I can tell you that that was not, you know, a kind of a low-tar market, and we've been incredibly successful. Of course, we stopped the effort. We haven't been launching ILUMA, so that is, you know, I would say, freezing the situation in Russia.
If you look at what we are doing in Cairo, you know, in Egypt, which is a high-tar market. If you look at the beginning today in what is a very high-tar market, which is Jakarta in Indonesia. I mean, we see the traction here, in a market that is, I think probably, you know, the epitome of high-tar. So I think that precisely with IQOS ILUMA, we have such a great quality of experience, that we are able to deliver to a smoker that are used to high-tar, an experience that is very satisfactory.
Okay. The competition in vaping is intense. The competition in heat-not-burn, less so. The reasons around technology, et cetera, your install base, the work you guys have done, do you think that competition can ever come into heat-not-burn, or is the category so different that it will be within the big global players?
Well, a few elements to answer you, Gerry. The heat-not-burn category is very different from the vaping category. That, everybody understand that. Vaping has no tobacco. It's about a liquid, you know, containing nicotine that you heat and then you extract the nicotine. The heat-not-burn category, first and foremost, is about a tobacco stick that you heat. The technology is much more complex in order to control how you are heating, not burning the tobacco. How you at best heat, you know, with the temperature profile to extract the best of nicotine and generate this satisfactory experience for people who were used to smoke until then. All that is protected with a number of patents.
You have huge investment to be done in R&D, in science, but then in industrial capacity, if you want to be able to build big capacity, again, with quality. Let's not forget that quality is essential there to replicate what IQOS is doing. So that means that for somebody who would have limited resources, no science, has not been developing any kind of patent so far, that's a space that is very, very difficult to penetrate.
Maybe move across to nicotine pouches and ZYN. Could you talk a little bit about... I mean, it's been a fantastic story since you acquired Swedish Match. Could you talk a little bit about how the business has performed against expectations, some of the short-term constraints you're seeing on the production side? Where does ZYN go outside of Scandinavia, outside of the US and into other markets, the nicotine pouch category in general?
Yeah.
How big could it be relative to vaping, heated, heated tobacco, combustibles, just all that, all that kind of stuff?
Sure. We could probably spend the rest of the time on that. I mean, nicotine pouch is a fascinating category because that is a way to enjoy nicotine that is really new. And I think we have a growing number of user. And for many of them, when we see the profile of the ZYN user in the US, I mean, many of them are actually or are coming from other nicotine source. Sometimes they absolutely 100% move to ZYN, sometimes they develop some poly usage.
But clearly, nicotine pouch is allowing people to enjoy their nicotine moment in a great way in terms of experience, because you have a kick of nicotine, and everybody is telling us, "You know, with my ZYN, I feel more focused, I feel better at what I'm doing. I feel more energized." So it seems to be delivering great personal benefit for the user. And this is something that you can enjoy wherever you are, whatever you're doing. So that's something that is very important to understand. The nicotine moment is regaining space. Remember, during decade, you know, it was forbidden, more and more moments where you could actually enjoy your cigarette, but it's true also for vaping or IQOS in most country, not everywhere.
Then with the nicotine pouch, with ZYN, you can be in the office, you can be in a plane, you can be in a restaurant, you are enjoying your ZYN. But also you can be active and doing something else. When you smoke, when you are vaping, even when you are IQOSing, you do that, you don't do something else. When you are enjoying your ZYN, you can be typing on your keyboard. You know, some of you could be enjoying your ZYN as we speak. You can be in the military forces on operation. You can be playing tennis. You can be driving a truck. We have huge population of truck drivers in the US who tell us that, you know, in order to be sharp at what they're doing, they are using ZYN.
And therefore, it's a new moment of consumption. And let's remember that, you know, there is today, probably no better or less risky way to enjoy, nicotine, than nicotine pouch. We have already in the US a G1 MRTP with our snus product, General. And arguably, nicotine that does not contain, tobacco, that can, you know, present a number of issues. So it's probably even better than the smooth product. So this is in term of de-risk nicotine, I'm not saying it's without risk, but in term of de-risk nicotine, this is the best product you can enjoy. This is the closest proxy to nicotine replacement therapy.
You know, if you take a Nicorette, for instance, well, to some extent, they're very similar to enjoying your, your, your ZYN. So it's a great product. Of course, the red line is under age consumption, and that's the place where I think we are having an impeccable approach in terms of marketing, not influencer, in the US. We need to be helped by the regulator, we need to be helped by the trade, but we believe that the category has a fantastic potential for the benefit of the consumer and for the benefit of public health. You are asking me about, okay, what is the size? What are we talking about? So today, we talk about a category that is 3% to 4% of the nicotine market in the US. Could it be 10%? Could it be 15%? Could it be 20% in the future? Why not? I think it's, it's what we're talking about.
Do you need an oral tobacco heritage in a market for ZYN to work?
You mean do we need to, to arrive in a place where people knows about oral tobacco? Well, that is certainly helping, let's face it, because then, you know... I mean, and we see a number of markets, even, you know, in Europe or in Austria, you have a little bit of history, but then you go to Indonesia, you go to Pakistan, you go to South Africa. So these are the places where we see today ZYN having traction already and some interesting move.
There is some history. Now, let's be clear, vaping was not known by the nicotine consumer in the past, and it gained traction over time. So we're sure that with the right regulation, with the capacity to explain what the product is about, there will be the capacity to develop this product, which once again, for the consumer, if you want to enjoy nicotine, is probably the best product you can have, and that presents all the advantages I was describing.
Having asked the question, I've got personal anecdotal evidence in from the UK that it has a chance, even without oral tobacco heritage in the UK. That, that much is for sure. Can I maybe switch tack and go to the combustible market? And you mentioned your volume performance in the Q1. We were discussing earlier about longevity in the sector, and every year I've been in the sector, people have asked me the question: When does the volume price metric in combustibles unwind? i.e., decline in volumes, raising prices, revenue flat to positive or positive. You had a load of inflation, must have had an impact. There are new categories coming in that people are transitioning to those categories. Where are we on that volume-price trade-off?
Look, if you look at the markets, and Gerry, you're extremely knowledgeable, you know, of course, that the trajectory of combustible is impacted by how fast alternatives are developing. And we all see a number of markets, where when you have very dynamic, smoke-free products developing, well, combustible is retreating. I mean, that's obvious in Japan, when you look at the combustible evolution because of IQOS and IQOS in particular. That's very clear. But you have a number of markets. And without any doubt, you know, just taking the US as a big market, it is for sure that the decrease in combustible is a mix of age pyramid in terms of consumption. But there are also a lot. And we see that positive, you know, number of smokers who are switching to other alternatives.
For us, the mission, and that's probably very specific today to PMI, but the mission we are giving to our combustible portfolio is to be the aircraft carrier for smoke-free products. And therefore, we are making sure that we are maintaining our leadership on combustible in order to maximize our impact with the trade and with the smoker that we want to convert to smoke-free product. And that's why leadership is important, and that's why we're saying that to maintain leadership is an important element. And so we are maximizing our price capacity, and I think 2023 and 2024 are showing our very strong capacity to price, but with this vision.
Now, having said that, it is clear that in a number of markets where we see very great traction on our smoke-free portfolio, we start to reach critical mass, where we can wonder, okay, now the name of the game for us is to maximize the bottom line from the accessibility. So we're gonna be less obsessed by the percentage of share of the category, but much more, "Okay, what is the bottom line that I'm, I'm, I'm delivering?" Because it becomes a pure financial play when it's no longer a commercial play.
Okay. Guys, I'm gonna continue asking questions. I've got lots. I'm not gonna open up to the floor formally, but if you do have a question, please raise your hand, and I'll cut off, and I'll, I'll come to you if you have a question. So as we transition through the questions, if you want to raise your hand, please do, and I'll, I'll ask you your question. I wanna move on slightly to ESG-type topics. So the equity market's meant to discount the future, meant to look at what a company's doing, where it's going to be, what the value of those cash flows it will generate will be in the future, discount them back, there's your share price. Now, it's all more complicated than that, but that's the starting point.
It frustrates me that the dominant conversation around your business is the transition from a combustible product to a non-combustible product. All the benefits that entails, everything you guys are doing to educate the consumer, the market, et cetera. But it still feels like non-consumer stakeholders, led by investors, aren't discounting the future of your business and where it should be, what value that attracts, what multiple it should be, et cetera, et cetera. What more can you do?
Well, I'm sure we can do a better job, you know, explaining why what we are doing is just, you know, to move from one shrinking business to another shrinking business. But, you know, very much so, moving from a shrinking business to a fast-expanding business that has the potential to be growing over a long period of time. First of all, let's, you know, step back and have a look at the nicotine market, which at the end of the day... I mean, we're, we're less and less a tobacco company, but we're much more a nicotine company. I know that nicotine is not well understood, and therefore, you know, sometimes it's mixed with issues that are coming from smoking. Let's be clear, what is driving the health issue and the disease coming from smoking is the smoke, not the nicotine. Nicotine is a legal stimulant.
We can have a debate, you know, just for sure, if you have cardiovascular condition, you should you should not take nicotine. Like, you know, coffee, for instance, that is also creating, some risk, but that's not the reason for, the diseases caused by, smoking. But we are much more a nicotine company. And the reality is that the nicotine consumption in volume in the world is probably flat, if not growing a bit. That's, you know, what we see when we look at the market. And probably, by the way, partly because the smoke-free product, as I explained, generate different moment of consumption. The fact that when you're not smoking, you're not overwhelmed by the smoke, so you can enjoy more nicotine as well. So that is also certainly playing a role.
But there are a number of markets where we see that when you develop some less risky product on the nicotine front, you have a consumption that is growing. So that is the situation, and therefore, people should not see that as a market that, by necessity, unlike the combustible, which, you know, we believe will disappear one day, going to decrease. But on the contrary, a market that is very dynamic and with a good outlook. And within this market, of course, the smoke-free product, when you enjoy a leadership as we do, you know, with more than 50%, certainly in value share of the smoke-free category, where you are set for a fantastic ride because you have probably 1.1 billion nicotine users today in the world, ballpark. 1 billion smokers, 1 million smoke-free products. That's a very bold number.
So you see the trajectory that we can have on the 1 billion. Yes, of course, in the emerging country, it will take more time. That's gonna be a long run and so on. But ultimately, I mean, in 10, 20 years, we will see that this move has happened and will continue to happen. I'm not saying that the combustible category will have disappeared everywhere in 10 or 20 years, but we're pretty sure that the smoke-free category is going to expand. There is no way back. You know, when you are the arch leader of this category with IQOS and VEEV, that is setting for us a great future.
What would be great to see is if some of the, the blanket exclusions that perhaps are put in place without people considering all the variables, if we start to see those unwind, that would be a great thing.
Yes, yeah. I believe... You know what? My view on that is that, people with continued system performance will say, "Well, at the end of the day, you know, maybe it's not a shrinking industry." As I saw, they would spend more time, and they would realize that it's not a kind of dying industry. And that therefore, it's not a dying industry because it's becoming sustainable, and I'm pretty sure that that will change the view. At the end of the day, yes, you're right, you have a number of exclusions. You have also people who are not necessarily having a real exclusion, but say, "I don't want to look at it," because they don't see the performance. I think for us, it's come with performance and to increase the number of people that we convince that this is a great industry.
So can I take that ESG thing one step further? So, so you're—you've got a combustible business that's gonna decline over time. You've got a growing nicotine business, non-combustible, with all the relative benefits that provides. And I'm thinking about the oil sector here now and various others. If you spin out the combustible business or sold it, the business still exists, and therefore there's a question mark long term for some people. Does the board sit there and think, the way to deal with this is to run it off and shut it down country by country? Or do you think spinning out the combustible business or selling it, and I know selling it is probably an unlikely event, but you get the point I'm making. Is a route to go, or are you sort of in the "let's run this off?
Look, I think we're not at that stage where we are wondering, you know, are we going to put a final end to the combustible business? I think our attitude toward combustible is very much the one I was describing, which is: How can we leverage this combustible business to have the best performance on growing our smoke-free business? Whether by this commercial impact that we generate or by the bottom line we generate, which at the end of the day, is helping us to finance the transition.
It is very clear that we won't give up on the value of this business at any time, so, you know, we're not going to close the shop overnight, saying, "Yeah, this is it." And I think for the time being, what we have in mind is to do the best possible job in the fastest possible way, in order to have, I would say, an easier problem to solve in the course, because the combustible business will have shrunk in a very, very meaningful manner. And at that moment, I think the answer will be much easier to bring to this question.
Okay. Related question. Do you see ESG bond market raising, raising debts? Is there any issue there at all? Is the bond market open to you guys, just not a problem?
Well, it is, and we've been, you know, very active in the past months, and very, very successful in raising funds. I would say it could be an issue if we were not doing this transformation, Gerry, but precisely the fact that we are so active on bringing better products to smokers, on bringing less risky solution for nicotine consumption. I think on having a great behavior in term of responsibility on how we market our product, avoiding underage usage problem, I think all that is creating credibility. And actually, there are a number of lenders who are happy to accompany us. You know, that we are with a pool of banks that are lending us money.
We have even a framework that is conditioning some of the rate we pay to our success on our transformation to become smoke-free. I see that, by the way, developing as probably a new feature that is probably going to develop in the coming years. I think a number of lenders now see their role, like probably many investors, where investors believe I have a role to play in accompanying a company in its transformation to be more sustainable, of course, for the benefit of the shareholder as well. But to develop business that can grow profitability sustainably over a long period of time. Traditionally, that was a role that the investors were playing, you know, and investing in equity shareholder. I think, tomorrow, more and more lenders will believe that they have a role to play with the lending in order to drive the right behavior and the right evolution as well.
Okay, I'll move on to capital allocation type questions. Can you remind us where the board is on, on share buyback?
The board is always happy to consider share buyback, provided that, you know, we stay within the frame and the trajectory that we have set. So you remember that before the Swedish Match acquisition, we were on a net debt to EBITDA around two times, and we said that once we have the visibility that we are on our way to go there, then we will resume discussion with the board on share buyback. To be clear, for me, share buyback is not really a strategy, but certainly when we see our share price not necessarily reflecting the value of the company, it's a good thing to do. So that's why we will be always happy to discuss that with the board, provided that we are within, I would say, the guardrail or the frame that we've been setting.
Do you think there's a situation where something's on the horizon that needs a huge amount of CapEx or an acquisition that prevents you going down the buyback route?
Look, look, there was one Swedish Match, okay? And frankly, we have no regret to have made this acquisition. I think that, given the leadership it is giving us in, the overall category, the fact that we are back in the US, I would say probably in the brightest possible manner, that was the right thing to do. But there is nothing else in the smoke-free space that is as big as Swedish Match, so that was a kind of one of its own. And today we are very much focused on organic growth with the very strong portfolio that we have. And that means that, you know, M&A is not top of the agenda.
Am I closing the door in the future if there was, you know, an interesting smoke-free, I would say opportunity? Why not? But frankly, today the name of the game for us is to optimize the organic growth with what we have. Therefore, to your question, no, I don't see that in the way of going back to a buyback program.
Probably a short answer. You announced a strategic review of the cigar business. Can you give us any indication of timing as to when you guys may be in a position to say something?
Well, we'll see. I don't think that you will have to wait for forever. We're still in the middle of this process. I think everybody can appreciate that we need to understand, okay, what is the business doing for us in the US? What is the potential of growth in the US and outside the US? What is the value that we could, you know, get if we were to find a buyer for the business? And then try to assess, okay, what is the best future for this business? And we want to be smoke-free, so it is clear that on the long run, you know, we don't expect to be necessarily selling cigar. But in the US, we need to have a very clear strategic view of how important or not is this business.
So you touched on the US dollar in your opening comments. We were talking about the US dollar as we entered the room. Are you thinking about allocating capital and investment and resource to, to more stable parts of the world? Or are you just the US dollar will be the US dollar and the ebb and flow, it's probably ebbed or flowed a long time one way, and it will come back the other way. How, how do you think about that?
Well, I don't know whether it was the first or to some extent, I guess it was, but when we invest in Swedish Match, we are first and foremost making a dollar investment. Okay, that we've been paying in Swedish krona, but that was a dollar investment because the vast, vast majority of the revenue and the profit generated by Swedish Match is in dollar. So I think this was going in the right direction. And clearly, if we have the possibility inorganically, but first and foremost organically, to develop fast our US dollar business, which to a large extent is US, large part of duty-free and a couple of countries where we are selling in dollar or where, you know, the currency is really pegged to the dollar. But given...
I'm not gonna come back on what I was saying on, on ZYN and then IQOS that is coming soon in, in the US Given the growth potential that we have in the US, I mean, I believe that our exposure to the US is gonna grow, which is certainly good news, because that is gonna decrease the volatility on the, on the US dollar. For, for the rest, I think it's for us to, as I explained, to, I mean, the growth potential is huge outside the US, okay? So we're not gonna be just focusing on the US because that's comfortable from a currency perspective. In term of growth, in term of looking for the long term, we have fantastic market opportunities.
Yes, in market with some volatility on the currency, on the short term, it's for us to work on price, price increase, to make sure that we offset as much as we can. Cost management to be very, demanding on how we are, managing our cost to offset possible negative impact coming from the Forex. And over time, as I said, you know, to, to deliver, performance in, in dollar term, whatever the currency. And, you know, I will finish by saying on, on the dollar, I've been now for too long CFO of a company, I know there are cycles. It's true that the last, you know, 10 years on the dollar have not been particularly favorable to us. Who knows what's going to happen in the future?
Indeed. Got a few minutes left. My next question's slightly negative, and I don't want to end on a negative, but the stock was $120... We're talking about the dollar again, right? The stock was $120 seven years ago. We're sitting around $100 now. To what extent does the stock price have an impact internally, morale, recruiting people, all that sort of stuff?
Gerry, can I tell you that I find this question a little bit unfair? It's a bad way to-
I thought I was doing well now.
No, but it's a bad way to start the day because I don't think it's true. I mean, I was before this conference looking at our Total Shareholder Return for the last, you know, since the IPO, last 10 years, last 5 years. So 10 years, which is, you know, in, probably impacted by the dollar, we are middle of the pack. But otherwise, since the IPO and the last 5 years, since 2019, we are, I think, top 2 or top 4 company in the FMCG space, you know, for our peer group. So we are among the best performer. Don't forget that versus other company, we pay a very high dividend. That is of course impacting the share price, okay? But we should be looking at the Total Shareholder Return.
That is a much better way to look at the work we are doing. And I think if I was looking at the total shareholder return since the IPO in 1979, we talk about 350%. Okay, could be lower for sure, but not that bad, nevertheless. But then I take, you know, your challenge, and as I said, you know, for us, we understand that our investors want US dollar performance. They are paid in the dividend in dollar, and our objective is to deliver performance in dollar term.
In my defense, the total shareholder return part of the answer was the way to go. And I do think we're all guilty of, w e're all guilty of ignoring the dividend at times, and people, you have to state the blindingly obvious, but sometimes the blindingly obvious needs to be stated.
Yeah.
You have to think about the dividend, 100%.
In our industry, for sure.
Absolutely. One final question. You know, we're through Q1. You've probably got visibility on Q2. I'm not talking about the second quarter or even the calendar 2024. You know, you guys are sort of sitting there with long-term earnings trajectory of something around, you know, touching on double digit. Given, given the trajectory of the business over the medium to long term with ZYN, et cetera, the stability of pricing in combustible, what you could do with share buybacks, et cetera, is it reasonable to, for people to think that this is high single digit, low double digit compounding earnings business, ex the dollar, which could be positive over the medium to long term?
Look, we've been sharing our algorithm for the 2024-2026 period. It comes with very strong dynamism on the top line, and we are targeting organic 6% to 8%. By the way, this is what we've been delivering for the last three years, so we're not dreaming in color and that kind of performance, and coming of course with good evolution on the volume. We talk about organic margin improvement, and we talk about 9% to 11% adjusted EPS growth, excluding Forex. So if you take that, and on top of that, you add the fact, as I said, you know, we want to work on how we maximize the offset of potential, if there's a negative impact on the dollar. We believe that we are in a position to deliver very strong performance in dollar term.
In terms of excluding Forex, I think we are very clear, but it doesn't mean that we cannot have something in dollar that's gonna be very powerful. I think you've been summarizing very well all the elements. You know, given the momentum on the smoke-free, given the resilience on CC, where between relatively good resilience on volume, the pricing power, everything we can do, thanks to the positive mix on the margin improvement, what at a certain point in time, certainly the buyback that will, that will resume, I think we are in a very good performing position to deliver strong performance in dollar terms.
Excellent. Your timing is superb. We've got single digits nearly on the red clock in front of us. So with that, Emmanuel Babeau-
Thank you, and I wish you-
Thank you very much.
... a great conference. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much for your time.