Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR)
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Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference

Dec 5, 2023

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Morning, guys. So I'm Brian Harbour. I'm the restaurant and food distributor analyst at Morgan Stanley, and thank you all for being here at the conference. And I'm happy to be here with Patrick Doyle, Executive Chairman of Restaurant Brands International. Josh has a new baby, so he couldn't join us.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

You're stuck with me.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

It's an honor to have you here, right? So I had sort of a broader industry question before we talk about RBI. There was a lot of talk about labor, right?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yep.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

No doubt, that seems to be kind of the hardest part of operating a restaurant. I've never operated a restaurant myself, but I think it's fair to say that, right?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

I hear it's hard.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, and it seems to be, you know, continually getting more difficult, right? And now you have, I would say, new regulations. You have what's going on in California, and maybe you have other states that follow California. That was sort of either unionization. It just came up a lot as a topic, and, I'm curious what you think about that. Is it just that much harder to be a franch- not just a franchisee, but an operator of any restaurant these days? Is there any sort of hope you could perhaps offer us, given your kind of extensive experience with the industry?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah. So the experience that probably matters the most on that is I spent a lot of my career in international. And, you know, Burger King, in particular, operates in 100 countries around the world. We operate in countries where labor is far tougher than it is in the U.S., where, you know, the wage rates are higher than in the U.S., even than where California is gonna be. And we do incredibly well. And so, you know, the real answer is, when changes come from a government, when, you know, there are structural changes, there's gonna be dislocation for 12 months or 18 months while everybody kind of adjusts. I will tell you, everywhere in the world, the higher the cost of labor, the more efficient the restaurants are.

and when labor is very low cost, it tends to be pretty inefficient. People figure it out. They get more efficient when the cost of labor goes up. and what they can't figure out from an efficiency standpoint winds up coming through in price. And so it takes some time for that to all kind of shake out. but, you know, a year, 18 months, we just went through a whole bunch of inflation that thankfully is backing off, and everybody had to kind of adjust around that. Everybody did. and, you know, the most important thing is that you've got great franchisees who are connecting with the employees in their restaurants, that are, you know, keeping great people in, who are more productive.

And so, you know, look, you always would prefer, as an operator, that the market is just kind of setting rates, and if, you know, there's higher wage rates out there that you need to pay to keep great people, that you're kind of doing that. When it comes from a state or from, you know, a national government somewhere, it always causes a little bit more dislocation when it happens, but everybody adjusts over time.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right. Yeah. Yeah, are we sort of at a tipping point for more automation, right? I think it's always been sort of a tougher economic calculus-

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

... but maybe we're there at this point, right?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Well, look, the restaurant industry is, I think, been the biggest... The restaurant industry has really failed to drive efficiencies in restaurants-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... for a long time. Most industries have gotten far more efficient. They have found more interesting ways to automate. You know, I think the big near-term opportunity that everybody is kinda looking at is how to automate ordering. Kiosks are just a better way to, for the customers, for the restaurant. It drives profitability, drives high, all the things that, you know, Brian, you know, you know very, very well. So you're gonna see that accelerate, I am sure, across the industry. In terms of automation in the kitchens, you know, I don't think the fully automated way is necessarily gonna be the path that you see near term. I think you're gonna see people finding things that make their people more productive, but not necessarily, just fully automating the processes.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm. Yeah, okay, that makes sense. So, let's, you know, talk about your business, and maybe just start with Tim Hortons. In Canada, in particular, you know, what do you think's really worked the best over the last couple of years? And then, I think, looking forward, this is sort of a modest, same-store sales growth business in the past.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yep.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Do you think you've sort of, you know, escaped that, and there's really, you know, a lot more to come from some of these initiatives that you've put in place?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah. So, you know, first of all, I mean, Tims is, in Canada, is just absolutely extraordinary. It is, it is the most loved market, yeah, the most loved brand in its home market of any restaurant business that I have ever seen anywhere. I mean, it's really extraordinary. And, Axel and the team have been in place now for 4+ years. Terrific team, been doing really well, and, you know, they built a plan three or four years ago that they've been executing against. And, you know, it really has been elevating the quality of the food overall. And then it's been getting into, you know, cold beverage, cold brew, and the later day part, and it has been working just spectacularly well.

I've got tremendous confidence, and yeah, I think over time, you know, you're gonna see it grow at a faster clip than it did in the past.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm. And have they been taking share consistently? And I think what's also interesting, right, is several companies, including, you know, ones that'll be at this conference, are new to Canada and trying to grow quickly there.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I mean, does that present a challenge for Tims at all?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah, look, you know, all new competitors are always gonna present a certain level of challenge. The strength of the brand, the efficiency of our distribution business, the quality of the team that we have running it, our advertising strength, the quality of the franchisees that we have, it is gonna be tough for somebody to directly compete with Tims.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm. Okay, makes sense. Is U.S. expansion still, you know, important, right? What's kind of the unlock?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah, for, for Tims?

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely. There is a great opportunity. We've just opened a couple of new markets, going very well. We've opened in Texas and in Georgia. There are some more to come. Katerina Glyptis is now running that business for us in the U.S. She's terrific. She took over four, five, six months ago. Very optimistic about that business in the U.S. There is a rumor that some coffee chains are doing decently in the U.S. And we think we've got a really great one, that-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... there is still a need for a Tims in the U.S., and I'm pretty optimistic about it over time.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

And how, I mean, how do you think it differentiates itself, right? Because, like, the, it is a... There's a lot of growth in that segment right now-

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yep

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

... right?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah. Well, first of all, you know, the quality of the coffee is exceptional, and it does start there, right? Then we've gotten very good at the cold beverages now and really bringing that from Canada into the U.S. But the thing that has always made Tims special, beyond just the brand, in Canada, is the quality of the food, and it's something that Tims has always done well and is now doing even better. The food quality is really exceptional, and I think that's a differentiator against some of our competitors.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm. Okay, makes sense. How about China? You know, how do you think all this China coffee competition plays out? What’s, you know, really the differentiating factor for Tims there, in your view?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah. So it's really, it's the same answer. So there is a lot of competition growing very fast right now in coffee. The question is, do they have, you know, the food quality and the breadth of offerings that that Tims has? And I think we do that uniquely well. If you look at the competitors in China today, that is the big differentiator for Tims.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm. Do you know how much of it will be express units? I know they're starting to lean into those there.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah, we're, we're gonna see over time. I mean, it's interesting, those are low, smaller, lower volume, but drive penetration, drive brand presence. So kind of we're working with, with our partners there on that, and we're gonna look at that, see, you know, how that, that works out over time. And, you know, it's something they've been experimenting with and we're interested in.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. And lastly, just I think a general question on franchisee profitability. I mean, you'll update us in a few months, but, obviously, you control the supply chain in Canada. I mean, is there anything, you know, you can do through that to continue to improve franchisee profitability? What's the key to that, besides just driving sales, which is kind of the obvious answer, right?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah. But so there are absolutely opportunities. So the biggest thing, I mean, first of all, just Tims with its own supply chain, it's very efficient. The scale of our business, it gives us a real cost advantage in, you know, in, in our supply chain, that we're able to deliver to the franchisees. It's why their cash-on-cash returns are really good, in Canada. But the big opportunity that, that we're starting to work through, and you've seen some announcements on this, is really using our RBI procurement team, to buy across the brands, and less of that was being done, than frankly, I probably expected when I came in. There's a big opportunity there. We're starting to get some nice results from that.

It's one of the ways that, you know, we can leverage the, you know, the RBI business.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

There are things that are done best at the RBI level. That's one of them. A lot of things, more things than maybe before, we've pushed down into the brands to give the unit presidents, you know, more authority, responsibility to make decisions, move faster in their businesses. But procurement is something that, at an RBI level, makes an awful lot of sense.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

I think there are some opportunities that we can generate from that.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, that's interesting. So you've centralized that more-

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

... recently. Yeah. Okay. Maybe let's talk about Burger King, you know, in the U.S. I think many of us have heard from franchisees, right? It's clear that they're happier. They're in a better position today.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I mean, when you've talked to them, what do you think has been kind of most impactful for them so far?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Profits.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Besides that.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

You know, look, I mean, at the end of the day, I mean, you know, first of all, they have heard from us and seen in our actions that we care about their profitability more than any other metric that we're looking at. Driving cash-on-cash returns for them is the magic in the business. It is what makes a franchisor in this business successful. So they know that we have put that, you know, at the top of the list. When we announced that and that we were gonna, you know, release their earnings, I, you know, some of them, particularly in Canada, kind of did, you know, a little bit of the tilted head.

It's like, "Really?" And they totally get it now, number one, and second, and most importantly, is, you know, how long does it take for them to believe from our actions that that is really what we are doing, it is where we are putting the resources? They believe now. And so they're seeing the results, you know, across all of the brands, but particularly, within Burger King. They're seeing really strong improvements in the profitability. They're excited about the business, I think more than they were certainly a year ago. It was tough.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

I mean, the fact that they weren't happy, you know, a year or two years ago, that was on us, right?

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

I mean, we weren't where we needed to be. We are making lots of progress. We are not where we need to be yet, but the progress is terrific, and, you know, they're getting excited as a result of that.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

What are you most excited about for the coming year in terms of key Burger King initiatives?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah. So look, we're gonna start to see a lot of the re-images getting done. That, you know, that takes a while to kind of build towards that. We still have an awful lot of the advertising dollars that we committed, that are yet to be spent-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

- that, you know, gives us some confidence around, our ability to drive sales. There are lots of things that we're looking at from a pipeline standpoint, on product, but honestly, the thing that's been driving it the most is execution by our franchisees.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Just pure operational execution. The excitement that they have for the business is causing them to, you know, to execute at a higher level, and it's driving results. And, you know, everybody, everybody talks to investors about that. And, you know, and I think often people are like, "Yeah, of course, you're gonna tell me that better operations is gonna drive sales." Better operations drives sales and profits. It just does.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

They were beaten up enough because of the profit levels, that I think it was hard for them to execute at the level that they wanted to be executing at. Labor availability has gotten easier, turnover is down, but just the energy level from the franchisees is higher, and so execution is getting better, which is driving results.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm. And on the product side, you, you know, you have made some, some changes recently, and you've, you know, I think value is probably a little bit more important now than it was a year ago, right? Are they kind of happy with value mix currently, and do you think that'll be a bigger part of it as you go into next year?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah, I think they're very happy with the overall approach that we've been taking. Look, this is a great product. You know, the Whopper is the best burger in the business. You know, we truly believe that and see that in our research results. You know, we should be able to sell that at a good price, and they should be able to make good money on it. And, you know, we've had a lot of success with the launch of our chicken wraps, and, you know, there's just a lot of good things happening that are driving value, but we don't need to do it through our core product.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

So that's, that's what we're working on.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Do you think there's a need to invest further in kind of physical assets beyond what you've already talked about?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Well, you know, we haven't done that many of the re-images yet.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

We're looking at how those are doing. We're very pleased with how they're performing so far. We wanna see that a little bit more. We've made a commitment, a big one, to help support, you know, more of those re-images. We have to get the whole asset base. All of our restaurants need to look great. That's gonna take some time, but, you know, we also wanna look at the results that we're getting from the investments we're making, see if there are any tweaks that, you know, we need to make. So far, it looks very, very good. But, you know, once I have more confidence in exactly the lifts and the returns we're getting, then we'll look at that and say, "Okay, how do we, you know, how do we get this done for every restaurant?

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Yeah. Makes sense. Maybe let's talk about the international side for Burger King a bit. The same store sales growth has been very strong. You know, it's decelerated a bit, I think you said more due to pricing. Are you still seeing traffic hold up in mo- It's hard to generalize, of course, because a lot of markets, but-

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Hard to generalize.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Are you in some of your bigger markets, are you still seeing traffic hold up there? Are you happy with kind of your share position? Are you taking share, in fact, in a lot of those markets right now?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah. Well, if you, if you look back, you know, over the course of the last 10 years, in our biggest markets, most of them we have taken share. And, you know, Burger King has been doing very, very well outside of the U.S. So look, on long term, I am very confident. You're always, as you said, you know, we're in 120 countries, so there are always gonna be, you know, things that are doing great. We've had, you know, particularly in some of the Western European markets, we've had terrific success. Actually, China's been moving nicely, coming out of, coming out of COVID. There are always gonna be markets that aren't doing quite as well.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

It is hard to kind of generalize. Overall, long term, very confident.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm. Okay. Is there anything common about those markets that are lagging, perhaps, or?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

No.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

No, I mean-

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... It's just, yeah, I mean, the, you know, it's, you've got different economic situations-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Around the world right now, right? And there are some markets and economies that are growing nicely. We've got great partners. They're driving great results... and other places where it's just a little bit more challenging.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Okay. And, you know, I mean, you've expressed confidence in this, but just maybe talk about kind of your confidence in unit growth for Burger King International next year. How do some, you know, newer markets ramping kind of factor into that?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Well, in terms of newer markets ramping on Burger King, that's probably less of the story on growth. We've got a lot of markets that are growing nicely.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Most of the biggest markets that are gonna generate the most growth, we've already got a scale business in those markets, so it's, you know, we're just in a really good growth curve. There aren't many places, you know, around the world that I look at and say we're constrained-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... from a growth perspective. I think where you're gonna see the accelerating growth in international is from the other three brands as-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... those are moving in. And, you know, you're already seeing that with, with Popeyes particularly, which is booming, with Tims and then, you know, Firehouse, where that first store-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

You got the first one.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... doing really well.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Good so far, right?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

So far, great.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Well, maybe let's, let's shift to those other brands. So Popeyes, I personally have not spent much time behind the counter to Popeyes. Could, could you just, you know, talk to us about some of the operational changes that you've, you've kind of alluded to? Well, what's actually happening there? What's, you know, how impactful do you think that could be for the operators?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

It's extremely impactful. Popeyes has the best food in the chicken category. It's the food quality is amazing. It is hard to make. We've got to figure out ways to make it easier for the restaurants to execute at a high level so that it's consistent and that it's faster, and frankly, that you know, employees have a better experience working in the restaurants because it's easier. That's everything from equipment to make things easier. So there are things that, you know, can auto-mix the batter. There are, you know, there are things from a hot hold standpoint that we're doing that we're getting really good results with. You know, there are things we're working with that we've been doing outside of the U.S., interesting, that we're bringing in, that we can pre-marinate.

Instead of marinating in the restaurant, we can marinate with our supply partners and bringing in the same marination process, just not happening in the restaurant. And then just, you know, a kitchen, you know, production system that, you know, is gonna drive efficiency that a lot of folks have had-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... and that we're still rolling out, and it's gonna help. It is helping. You know, we're seeing it. We're not in a lot of restaurants yet in the U.S. with it, but I will tell you, if you visit a Popeyes outside of the U.S. and look at the efficiency of their operation versus a Popeyes in the U.S., there's a big difference, and-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... we know how to do it. We have a lot of restaurants operating more efficiently outside of the U.S., need to bring it back here.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Are you asking them to make any sort of, like, equipment investment as a part of this, or is it just about-

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

... practices and processes?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah, no-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

So there are-

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

There's gonna be some investment in the equipments and, and yeah, but it's, you know, high returns on those.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right. Makes sense. Do you think that's kind of the limiter versus... Like, chicken is a very competitive category. We know that there's several very fast-growing chicken chains, right?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

A couple of them doing pretty well, yeah.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

No doubt, right? Is that sort of the limiter for Popeyes? And also, I mean, look, like, the chicken sandwich was a big hit, and then everyone else kinda launched its chicken sandwich.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yep.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

How do you kinda, like, stand out in the chicken category?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Well, look, you start with, I mean, to me, the two businesses, brands that I look at today that are in, I think, very different stages in their development, so look at Chick-fil-A that everybody spends a lot of time looking at and saying: "Okay, why are they doing so well?" Chick-fil-A's units are incredibly efficient.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

They have hundreds of industrial engineers in Atlanta that are finding ways to make those restaurants more efficient day in and day out, and they've done a terrific job at creating a very efficient box.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

So they executed a high level, number one, because they train and hire well, but also because they've just made it easier for them to do it. I think our food is better. I know our food is better.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Right? That's a big statement. There are people out there who have told me I'm crazy when I say it. I'm not crazy. Our food is better. We've got to get better at executing-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... both in terms of the people who are doing it in the restaurants and how we train them. But frankly, a lot of it's on us.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

You know, we have to make those restaurants easier to run for them to be able to produce at a level, and a speed of service, and a consistency, and we are not where we need to be on that. And so we know what we need to do. The path is there. It's gonna take a bit of time-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... but that's gonna generate a lot of growth.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Fair to say, you assume that that can drive, you know, better sales growth going forward?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

That's the goal.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

You unlock throughput, you-

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

If it doesn't do that-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Bring more people through the door

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... if it doesn't do that, something's gone off the rail.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, exactly right. Yeah, how fast would you expect... You've signed, I think, a few new agreements a year. I don't remember exactly the pace. Do you expect that that will kind of continue as you take Popeyes outside of the U.S.?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Oh, absolutely.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

What, um-

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

... you know, how fast might you start to see double the unit growth you're seeing today or something like that?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... Well, I mean, System sales growth-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I won't hold you to the answer.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah, no, system sales growth for, for Popeyes, you know, last quarter was up north of 40%, rolling over north of 40% the previous year. If we can keep it going 40% a year, I think in 10 years, we're, you know, we're bigger-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... than the entire global economy. So, I think it compounds something like that.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Well, you never know, right? Like- take over, take over the world.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Eventually, we won't be able to go 40% a year.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

It's growing very, very fast, and look, the success of those markets means you wind up with a lot of demand from great operators in new markets, and so we're gonna continue to launch in new markets. And from a scale standpoint, there are—you know, look, there are 20 markets, 30 markets, 40 markets that are gonna wind up having 90%+ of the restaurants over time.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

We've got to have each of the best operators in those markets for all four of the brands over time. The fact that we're generating the kinds of results that we are means terrific operators are calling us, saying-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... you know, "Can we be the ones to introduce this brand into the market?

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. You know, shifting to Firehouse briefly, is that kind of the case there, too? Outside the U.S., you know, do you think it works anywhere that Subway does? Like, what's kind of the opportunity there?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah. Oh, absolutely. And look, there is, you know, there is good competition in the sandwich category in the U.S.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

I mean, Jersey Mike's has had a great run the last five or six years. You know, you've got other players. Obviously, Subway has had its struggles, but you know, Jimmy John's, I mean, you've got, you've got a good competitive set in the U.S. We're doing very well. We hope to accelerate, and I think we are gonna be accelerating the unit growth there in the U.S. The interesting thing is, outside of the U.S., it is only Subway today.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

So we think there is an opportunity, and it's a unique strength of the RBI model, being multi-brand. We're in 120 countries. We do business... I think the number is between 3,000 and 4,000 supply partners around the world. So when we take, you know, we take Firehouse into a new market, number one, we already know who the 3 or 4 or 5 best potential operators are. It's easy for us to get to them-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... talk to them because we're operating there already with Burger King. We already have relationships, doing inspections, quality control, with, you know, with the suppliers who are gonna potentially be our partners in those markets. You know, and we've got a terrific scale team, in our international business based out of Switzerland, that know how to bring new brands into new markets, and it is a real strength. It is, it is a reason to look at the RBI model and the business with these four brands-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... to believe, yeah, there is more value that can be created here because of the multi-brand concept.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right. Do you generally have a preference for kind of your existing franchisees in those markets, or are you looking at brand new?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

No, I mean, I think over time, you're likely to see us with at least a couple different partners in most countries.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

That's probably the, the best answer. There are some where, I think the most in the market is three brands with one partner.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

But we've got markets where, you know, it's a different partner for every brand.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. So it's case-by-case basis.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yep.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I had sort of a more general question on technology. I mean, in setting aside kind of consumer-facing things, we talked a little bit about this, right? But anything you're doing specifically, kind of back of house, operationally, that you think is impactful for franchisees? You know, how does that kind of, you know, benefit you, of course, as the parent company? Are these things that you can charge for as a tech vendor to your franchisees?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Right.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Some companies have talked about this, but I'm curious to know what you guys are doing.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah, look, the real value add over time. So, I really look at it in kind of three parts. So one is, can you use technology to make it easier for your customers to access the brands, to order from the brands? And that is clearly a path that is there for all of our businesses, all of our brands, that we're going after fast and hard. The second is, you know, a system for operating the restaurant, for managing it, managing labor, managing, you know, the supply chain into the restaurant, all of those sorts of things. And, you know, the core POS system, doing that well, you know, is also gonna drive, you know, results and efficiencies for the franchisees.

That's become more table stakes than it used to be. There are good opportunities, good suppliers, vendors out there that can do that. The third one is what you do with the data, and that's ultimately, I think, where the most value gets created. The first two, you've got to do.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

You know, at some level, it's table stakes that you've got to be good at that. What you do with the data to find insights into, you know, how to drive more loyalty, to drive, you know, an increase in your check, to make your marketing more efficient, all of that, that winds up being, you know, a great creator of value over time.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm. Well, you know, you came from a single brands company before, and now you're kind of a platform company. What-- We've talked a little bit about this, too, but, you know, what do you see as kind of the key advantages of that?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Well, I think the most important thing is, you know, the advantages are clear. So, you know, there are some things you can do centrally. Talent, you've got to have visibility on talent and be able to move talent amongst the different businesses centrally. Procurement is clearly a big opportunity. The international growth and the platform we have there, we can grow faster with these, you know, the three other brands kind of than... You know, because we've got this scale business with Burger King, that is a huge advantage for us. So if you look at, you know, kind of the best or healthiest competitors in our categories, you know, in sandwiches right now in the U.S., it's probably Jersey Mike's that's been, you know, having the best run the last five years. In chicken, it's probably Chick-fil-A.

Neither of them have any kind of meaningful international business today. It's gonna be hard for them to move into international. I, you know, ran international at Domino's for five years. I know what it's like to be the one pioneering the brand into a new market, where you don't have the connections. You're, you know, calling, you know, every service provider and vendor and partner that you have, saying: "Who can you introduce me to in this market that might be a nice partner?" It's a huge advantage for RBI that we already have this scale-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... outside of the U.S., that we can then use and leverage with these other brands. So that's the, that's the big advantage. What's important, and I think we're getting very right now, is that you have empowered presidents of those businesses, that are gonna move quickly, that you don't lose the entrepreneurialism, that you might have as a single-brand company, by having them be part of a, of an umbrella. And what Josh has been doing really well is kind of moving the authority down to those presidents to move faster with their businesses, make more of the decisions there, as opposed to kind of at the RBI level. There are things that we do from a support standpoint that are gonna generate better growth, better returns, maybe efficiency.

There are some things that's, you know, legal and, you know, and FP&A, and things that, you know, that, that you're gonna do that are gonna support those businesses, that will drive efficiencies, and margin in the business. And then those things that will help you grow faster-

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... you know, et cetera. But, you know, most of the decision-making around marketing, product, operations, all of that needs to be down in the businesses.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

It sounds like you've completed most of that. Has that gone as well as you hoped so far?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah, extremely well.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

We've got great leaders in those businesses.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Speaking of platform companies, you know, RBI does have a history of buying things. You know, would you say M&A is tougher today? Maybe there's not as much capacity to do a large deal. The financing environment is obviously different. Maybe on the flip side, I think the industry is entering a more stable operating environment, perhaps.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yep.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Is that more conducive, you know, as you start to think about that?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Look, I think the important thing is we've got to... You know, we've got four brands today. We need to prove that those brands being part of RBI makes them more successful than if they weren't part of RBI, and I absolutely see it and feel it today. We need everybody to believe that first.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Right? We need the market to look at it and say, "You know what? Because those brands are in RBI, they operate better, they grow faster, they generate better margins, better returns for shareholders." I absolutely see it. It's there, but, you know, the market's got to believe that before and we've got to prove that in the four businesses that we own before we look at doing that with anything else.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Okay, makes sense. Do you think there's been... You know, franchise businesses have historically run at fairly high leverage. They've, you know, paid dividends. That's made them attractive to a lot of investors. I mean, do you think that's shifted somewhat? Is there pressure to, you know, run at lower levels of leverage? I mean, RBI has indicated that it will run a little bit lower over time.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yep.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Is there pressure to pay more of a dividend these days?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

No, I mean, look, I mean, for RBI, I think it's pretty simple. Just because the scale of our business, we've reached the point where moving leverage down some, and we've put some guidance out there around what we're gonna do on that, we kind of need to. Because the depth of, you know, the high-yield market is, you know, just not big enough. If we grow a bunch more, for us to maintain that, it's gonna make sense for us to get down the leverage somewhat, and, you know... And so that's what we're doing.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

You know, when you're a smaller business, then, you know, I think the math may work a little differently.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, makes sense. We have these couple lightning-round questions to end.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Okay.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

We're asking these at every presentation today, so they're standardized.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

I hope I don't screw up.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

It's okay, there's no right answer. So just demand backdrop for the year ahead relative to recent trends. You think accelerate, hold, decelerate? What would, what would drive that?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Yeah, I think pretty consistent. You know, look, you're coming out of a lot of inflation.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

An inflation shock kind of went through the market. Everybody had to take price and/or tickets.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

You're getting to probably a healthier place, but I think overall demand stays pretty consistent with where it is.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right. Okay, and then margins up, down, neutral, and maybe in your case, we think at the consolidated level, probably?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Meaning at the RBI level?

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I think that probably makes most sense, yeah, for standardization of the question.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

For standardization of the question. Look, as we grow, we ought to be able to leverage the scale of the business.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Okay, and then capital allocation, prioritization between CapEx, buybacks, dividends, debt paydown, and, you know, have any of those kind of changed relatively in importance?

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Well, look, I mean, we did buybacks for the first time in a couple of years.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

... recently. But what we will always do first, any healthy company should do this, is we're gonna look for a high ROI investments that we can make in the business first. That's always gonna generate the best return, right? So we always start with that. What are the things we can be doing that are gonna generate faster growth, that are gonna generate a high return for our shareholders by investing in those things? Then, the rest of it, honestly, I mean, we've talked about the guidance on our debt and working the leverage down a bit over time. The rest of what we do is gonna be a function of math.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Right. Okay, we'll leave it there, and-

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

All right

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

... Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman, Restaurant Brands International

Brian, thank you.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

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