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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 9, 2022

Murielle Baker
Communications Director, Rocket Lab

In our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Such statements are based upon information available to the company as of the date hereof and are subject to change due to future developments. Except as required by law, the company does not undertake any obligation to update these statements. Our remarks and press release today also contain non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of Regulation G enacted by the SEC. Included in such release is a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. Lastly, this call is also being webcast with a supporting presentation, and a replay and copy of the presentation will be available on our website. Now let me turn the call over to Peter Beck, Founder and CEO.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Thanks, Murielle, and welcome everybody to today's review of Rocket Lab's business highlights and financial results for Q3, 2022, presented by myself and our Chief Financial Officer, Adam Spice. Today's presentation, we will go over business accomplishments for the third quarter and further achievements we've made since the end of the quarter. We'll also include commentary on our market position across Launch and Space Systems and discuss some of the big contracts we have underway. Adam will then talk through our financial results for the third quarter and our financial outlook for Q4. After that, we'll take some questions from those listening and finish off today's call with upcoming conferences we'll be attending. All right, on to what the company has achieved this quarter.

The quarter ended strongly for Rocket Lab on the launch side of the business as we equaled our record for the number of successful launches to orbit per year. We quickly surpassed it within the first few days of the fourth quarter. We completed two flawless national security launches, one after the other, for the U.S. government's National Reconnaissance Office. The NRO are our prime customer in the launch business with stringent mission requirements and so it's both an honor and a show of our strength as a launch leader that they continue to return to us to deliver their national security missions to orbit. Our third mission was the second of a bulk buy of dedicated launches for Japanese constellation builder Synspective.

Electron again performed perfectly to deliver Synspective's payload to the exact position required to support their constellation growth. Flying dedicated offers multiple benefits for small satellite constellation operators. These include control over their own launch schedule and ability to reach specific LTANS that aren't achievable if they fly on a large mission. These reasons, along with Electron's reliability, are why customers are coming to us and booking up multiple launches at once. Synspective's bulk buy of launches will continue into 2023, with another launch scheduled for them, along with grouped launches for French constellation operator Kinéis, and another set for U.S. operator HawkEye 360, expected to launch in the first half of next year. Sticking with Electron, we successfully fired a Rutherford engine that had been returned from the ocean during one of this year's earlier recovery missions.

With that is a massive technical achievement on the path to rocket reusability. Electron, Photon and Neutron are in the scope of the USTRANSCOM research contract awarded to Rocket Lab this past quarter to examine their potential use for cargo transport and point-to-point travel. Speaking of Neutron, the program achieved some key wins and engineering milestones this quarter, including the selection of a new site for Rocket Lab to develop Neutron's Archimedes engines and the production of full-scale hardware, including Neutron tank structures and Archimedes engine prototypes. I'll take you through those achievements in more detail later in this presentation. On the Space Systems side, some of our earlier investments to grow the production capability of each of these space systems streams really started paying off.

In particular, we announced today that our separation systems division has secured the largest bulk order ever totaling over $14 million. Those 80+ separation systems will support the Department of Defense Space Development Agency mission to build a constellation that will serve the future national defense and space architecture. As missions like these continue to come to the fore, our shored up production capacity across vertical space system streams means that we're really enabled to service these types of large contracts now and into the future. Alongside this separation systems win, we also completed the high volume manufacturing line for our satellite reaction wheels that will service an undisclosed mega constellation customer.

This production line is capable of manufacturing up to 2,000 units per year and produced its first engineering units this quarter, which keeps us on track to start producing flight-ready wheels early in 2023. Rounding out our Q3 highlights for space systems, we also were awarded a contract to provide solar power technology for three Lockheed Martin-built satellites for the U.S. Space Force. Okay, three launches. As I mentioned at the top of this call, we had a strong quarter of launches with three successful orbital missions for Electron. Two of these were for the NRO office, and the third was for a Japanese constellation operator, Synspective. Both repeat customers for dedicated Electron launches.

Since April, we've maintained a launch cadence of once a month with 100% mission success, and we're on track to maintain that tempo for the rest of the year, including our first launch from our launch site in Virginia, Wallops Island. With the Synspective mission, we equaled our previous annual record of seven launches a year, only to beat it in the first week of Q4 with our eighth successful orbital mission and again with our ninth mission just five days ago to deliver a total of 152 satellites to space.

Even without these fourth quarter launches, our missions in Q3 cemented our position as the launch provider of choice for small satellite operators and further stretched our lead as the most frequently flown and reliable small launcher. I know I said I would go over the rocket reusability program later in the call, but first I wanna point out a key technical milestone we achieved in our third quarter for that program. For the first time, we successfully fired an engine with reused parts from the previous Electron mission that was recovered from the ocean. This particular Rutherford engine was previously successfully launched to space and returned to Earth during our recovery mission there and back again in May. The refurbished Rutherford engine passed all of the same rigorous acceptance tests we put every flight engine through.

It fired for an accumulated 200 seconds, you know, restarted multiple times, produced the same amount of thrust and performance as a newly-built engine. Good as new. This is very exciting because, the fact that we achieved such a high level of performance from an engine, you know, when we dredged it out of the sea, makes me excited, and optimistic about what we can do with the recovered dry engines and further validates that we're on exactly the right path for bringing reusability to small launch vehicles. Onto our Responsive Space program. In Q3, we opened up our Responsive Space program to on-ramp commercial and government satellite operators to a rapid, call-up launch capability and streamlined satellite build and operations options.

There's been a lot of talk in the industry and a number of line items in government budgets about Responsive Space. It's a capability that's been sought for decades and enabled to enable satellite operators to rapidly call up a launch service, get it to space in a short timeframe. The reality is, Responsive Space, at least for us, already exists for small satellites, and that it exists with Electron. You know, there's a lot of talk about it, but we've actually demonstrated it, you know, our fastest launch turnaround time this year was a sum total of just 15 days, which comes down to the maturity of our rocket, our infrastructure, and our team.

We introduced this program to formalize what we already offer to the market, and we're seeing strong interest already from repeat and future customers. Onto Neutron. As I've described, a good quarter for Electron, but Q3 also saw strong progress for our large rocket, Neutron, and I'll take you through some of those key achievements now. To start with, Neutron has a new home, or at least Archimedes engines do, at NASA's historic Stennis Space Center in Mississippi. In late September, we selected Stennis as the location of the engine test facility for our reusable rocket engine, Archimedes, which will power the Neutron rocket.

Just last week, we cut the ribbon on Stennis along with the Mississippi senators and other senior figures in attendance, there too to show a strong local and federal support that we have for Neutron. The Archimedes test complex will be located within the larger A test complex at Stennis Space Center across a 1 million sq ft area. The site itself already comes with all manner of critical infrastructure like cryogenic systems, tanks, test systems, instrumentation bays, buildings, and a whole lot more that we can quickly adapt to support our engine test operations. We can also leverage the wider Stennis Center's infrastructure for power systems, transportation networks, commodities, and supply chain, all the little things that make our test site run and tick quickly.

That allows us to get set up quickly and get testing faster than if we had to build, you know, an engine test site from scratch. The State of Mississippi has really gotten behind us to bring Neutron to the area too, with the state putting forward some significant capital investment for us to develop the facilities for Archimedes and Neutron. Heading into Stennis really fast-tracks development for Neutron, and already the team on the ground are getting to work to modify some of the systems and get the site ready for the very first Archimedes engine hot fire. Speaking of Archimedes, this past quarter saw progress on the development of our new reusable rocket engine.

We made a change in the cycle of the engine from a gas generator to an oxidizer-rich closed cycle to really optimize the performance of the engine, not to increase the level of ISP or performance as you might think, but to maintain a power balance right in the middle that brings the temperatures and chamber pressures down for a really super reliable engine. Because that's what you want in an engine for a reusable rocket, an engine that can be used over and over again, and which has the scope for increased performance if we need to, for any reentry and landing at the pad. With that, all of the major design elements of the engine are complete.

This quarter, we moved into producing some early prototype parts, 3D printed components, including pump parts like oxidizer volutes and others. With Stennis secured and the engine development ready and accelerating now, we're on the right track with Archimedes and well-positioned to maintain our targets to see a hot fire engine soon. Continuing on the Neutron theme, Neutron is a unique rocket not only in its design, but in the materials we use to construct it. It's expected to be the world's first carbon composite large launch vehicle, made up of new, specially formulated carbon composite materials. Obviously lightweight and very strong, but the new element of being able to withstand the heat and forces of repeated reentry and launch. Now, we use carbon composites for Electron.

In fact, we were the first in the world to build an all-carbon composite orbital rocket. We understand these materials and these technologies really well. Now with carbon composite, you know, carbon composite rocket, one of the best ways to determine the program's progress is whether structural molds for the rocket are complete or not. Because if molds are built, that means that the rocket's design is mature enough to invest in the capital and the tooling. That's where we are today with Neutron. In Q3, we completed the molds for its tanks and have started to develop full-scale prototype hardware, so parts can be made quickly to speed up Neutron's timeline. This type of advancement in the program might not seem too flashy, but it's highly important for Neutron's early development.

We're expecting the first Neutron tank to come to life by the end of the year, this prototype tank. Now, to build Neutron's carbon composite tanks and structures quickly, the best way to do that is by automation. This is another area this quarter that we've completed early investment into in the tooling and the machinery by using rocket-building robots. The process is called Automated Tape Laying, it's quite a mature process, where meters of carbon fiber are laid down every minute to build the structural material up for Neutron's structures. It's an advanced composite manufacturing technique that's really optimized for performance, speed, and cost.

Carbon composite on a strength to mass ratio is at least four times lighter than metallics like steel, meaning that a quarter of the amount of the material actually needs to be used for the same specific strength. Using, you know, our rocket-building robots, we can really maintain and minimize labor and still manufacture completed tanks in a very short timeframe, in order of days. Now to the East Coast to Virginia, we continue to make really good progress on the Neutron factory there. The 28-acre area was literally greenfield when we started and has now been graded. Our concrete pour and the first building is up within just seven months from groundbreaking in April this year.

We're expecting our first stage one, Neutron tank to be completed on the Site two, which has been kicked off in this current quarter. The site here for our production complex for Neutron that will support its production and assembly and integrated launch, it's where we build the rocket, but it's also some of our where we'll do some of our tests and some of our system infrastructure will be there as well. The thing about the site and the advantage we gain from its location is how close it is to the Neutron launch pad, in fact, just two miles up the road. This allows us to unlock all of the constraints that a typical rocket program otherwise faces.

There's a reason why most modern rockets are about three, just a little bit over three meters in diameter, and that's because they have to go through some kind of tunnel or bridge somewhere on the way from their production site to the, you know, to the launch site. That's not gonna be the case for Neutron. It's a unique proposition, and that we have with the launch site and pad and production complex of Neutron's, you know, major functions being so closely located, where we can build the rocket, but also test it in very close succession, to really help accelerate Neutron's development timeline.

Once Neutron is up and flying too, it will mean slick and streamlined operations in a place where we're not handling the rocket multiple times and transporting it through various parts of the country to get it to the pad. Right, on to Space Systems. Moving into Space Systems now and some of our accomplishments here in the quarter. The ethos of our entire Space Systems line has been to enable easier and faster access to space on proven and affordable hardware that is available at scale. Our satellite separation system by PSC have been a key offering of our vertically integrated Space Systems business, having come to the table with a 100% mission success heritage across more than 100 missions launched across most major U.S. and international rockets.

Being acquired by Rocket Lab meant PSC could continue their commercial hardware trade, but by tapping into Rocket Lab's resources and manufacturing capability, grow the business. It's fantastic to share today that you know in under a year since the acquisition we recently brought in our highest value mission for separation systems to date. Two orders totaling $14 million, and I'll take you through that deal in more detail in the next slide. The $14 million win is made up of two contracts to supply more than 80 of our Lightbands to Lockheed Martin and another undisclosed customer who are both building satellites for what's called Tranche 1 Tracking Layer, which is being developed by the U.S. Department of Defense Space Development Agency.

These 80+ Lightbands represent the majority of the separation systems required to deploy the entire Tranche 1 Tracking Layer constellation, an early warning global system to detect missiles and protect U.S. national security. This is a critical capability that relies on the satellites and the constellation being accurately deployed to their precise location. The fact that not one, but two organizations have entrusted us to build these devices that place the satellites in orbit tells you just how well-regarded our separation systems are in the market. Further to the U.S. government side of the business, in our solar power division, we secured another win with an award to deliver the solar cell assembly for three Lockheed Martin-built satellites for the United States Space Force.

These three large spacecraft are part of the latest evolution of the USSF's missile warning system, and recently passed the critical design review to become certified for space, set to launch in 2025. Our deep expertise in space solar power, reliability of the tech, and our extensive manufacturing capability are some of the reasons behind the latest award, which supports satellites production on a really aggressive schedule. Onto Mandrake. Over in our mission software department, our team and technology have been helping progress a major US government program called Blackjack. This program is being managed by DARPA and the government's space development agency to create a global low latency, high volume data communications constellation using optically interconnected satellites.

An early test of that network was carried out in June with the success of the Mandrake-2 mission, which successfully demonstrated a functioning optical communications link between two satellites. We play the leading role in the success of the Mandrake-2 mission with our software and our mission simulation, and testing solutions have been a part of the mission from the very beginning of the program. We also run mission operations for Mandrake-2, where the team is responsible for daily spacecraft health and status monitoring, payload tasking, and trajectory control between the two spacecraft to support the optical cross-link testing. While we're counting this mission as a win for our Space Systems business, it's also an example of a vertical integration strategy and Space Systems paying off across the board.

We supplied the star trackers and reaction wheels to the Mandrake spacecraft, which enable it with the high precision control it needs to achieve the optical communications link. Our separation systems were also used to deploy these satellites to space. Another showcase this quarter of the strength of our end-to-end mission solutions was the award of a new research and development agreement with the United States Transportation Command or USTRANSCOM. USTRANSCOM are responsible for all global logistics for the U.S. military. It's DoD's future thinkers and they are looking forward to a rocket cargo transport and point-to-point travel for its operation in the years to come and see an opportunity across both our space systems and launch offerings.

In Photon, our research agreement will explore the use of our spacecraft to establish on-orbit cargo depots and deliver reentry capabilities. While Neutron and Electron are being examined for their ability to transport cargo point-to-point around the world. Finally on to our Q3, our three highlights. We've completed the construction of a high-volume space systems production line to produce reaction wheels at scale. Our first prototypes for one of our mega constellation customers has rolled off the line and is completing its testing before we begin delivering the final products early next year. This production line is capable of producing up to 2,000 units a year, which is an enormous increase in the availability of these critical products to the market.

Where components like reaction wheels have been individually built by specialized engineers, you know, over long wait times. For this production, we've incorporated advanced metal machining centers optimized for unattended operation, automated production tools, and automated environmental testing and workstations. This production line coming online means we're meeting the bottleneck of demand for these products for satellite constellation builders head-on, where we see significant growth opportunity in our Space Systems division. Post-quarter accomplishments. As you saw there's another really good quarter from those business accomplishments in Q3. Now I'd like to take you through a few more exciting developments for the company since the quarter end. Busiest launch year. Starting with Electron, we've had our busiest launch year. Just a week into the fourth quarter, we successfully launched our eighth mission.

Five days ago, we launched our ninth mission of the year, surpassing our record for the calendar year. We said we would open up access to space with Electron with an increased launch cadence, and we have with a successful orbital mission every month this year since April. In fact, Electron has launched successfully more times this year alone than every other commercial small launch vehicle combined across all of their launches to date, and we're still not finished. Electron and our team have had a stellar year, picking up the pace while also delivering some of our most demanding missions ever. Arguably, our hardest mission was the CAPSTONE mission, sending a satellite to the moon on Electron and one of our Photon spacecraft.

It was the heaviest mission we'd ever lifted, the most technically demanding on a rocket, and then only 15 days later, our team turned around and for a flawless launch of one of our highest level national security customers, that being the National Reconnaissance Office. We've had this success because we've advanced the technology, built the infrastructure up front, set up three launch pads and three operation centers, developed a world-class team of engineers. Electron has really hit its stride this year and is well set to continue an increase in cadence in 2023. Before that, though, we have another Electron mission to fly, our 10th for 2022. This time flying from Rocket Lab Launch Complex two in Wallops Island, Virginia.

Launching from this pad is gonna open up a new era in launch for small satellite customers. We've been providing reliable and responsive access to space for more than four and a half years now, and excited to build on that strong heritage by unlocking a new path to orbit from Virginia's eastern shore. Across these three pads, both of our launch sites, we can support more than 143 launch opportunities every year to deliver unmatched flexibility in the market for government and commercial satellite operators. On the AFTS front with NASA, we've been encouraged by their recent progress and their expression of confidence that they'll be ready to go by December. Electron arrived in Virginia last month and is deep into processing and already on the ground by the team.

Launch rehearsals and integration of the HawkEye 360 payload to the rocket will be taking place in the next few weeks before rollout to the pad at LC2 for a launch. I'm personally very much looking forward to seeing this Electron fly out of Virginia, as you might imagine. Finally, I'm also excited to announce today that we have our second launch lined up from LC2 for an undisclosed commercial constellation customer on an Electron in January, meaning that we'll have two back-to-back missions from Virginia in just a matter of weeks. Even in its early days of flying from LC2, Electron is set to change the game and set the standard for responsive and reliable small launch from U.S. soil with these two missions expected to be the fastest launch turnaround by any operational small launcher.

Electron is already the most frequently launched small orbital rocket globally, and with both these complexes combined, the pace is really expected to pick up. This launch in January from LC-2 will be Rocket Lab's first Electron launch in 2023 as part of a busy launch manifest. Other launches already announced for 2023 include the first of five dedicated missions for Internet of Things connectivity provider Kinéis, the launch of a mission to demonstrate space debris removal technology by Astroscale in Japan, and the continuation of a multi-launch contracts with HawkEye 360 and Synspective. This is not an exclusive list of all of our manifests for 2023, but it's just some of the customers that we've already announced this year.

Moving on to space systems now, our contract to MDA for Globalstar has been expanded to include us developing a new global satellite operations control center, what we call the SOC, for the constellation. We'll not be disclosing the terms of this contract, but I can tell you, it does represent an extension to the $143 million contract already in place. The foundational mission software for the SOC will be based off our existing MAX system, the same one used to manage the DARPA BlackJack program that I spoke about earlier. The combination of our software and deep expertise in operating demanding and complex missions alongside our existing partnership, we're the driving forces behind the MDA choosing to extend this opportunity to us.

By designing and manufacturing Globalstar's spacecraft buses, delivering the flight and ground software solutions, and developing and supporting the spacecraft operation centers, we're once again demonstrating that our strategy of going beyond launch and delivering complete space mission solutions basically end-to-end. A big part of our growth and acquisition strategy has been the vertical integration of supply chains to mitigate constraints. The strategically important components needed to build out our functioning satellite as part of the constellation. The companies we've acquired over the years, we believe are the best in the business, in their own right. More importantly, combining them has provided us with inorganic and organically developed solutions that cover the complete mission end-to-end, to deliver an operational platform that's gonna be used globally.

This NDA contract is a perfect example of that. We're building all 17 of the constellations, new spacecraft buses. The SOC's Globalstar mission will use our software. The satellites themselves will be powered by our solar panels. They'll communicate using our Frontier-C satellite radios. They'll maintain their position in space using our reaction wheel. Each satellite will be operated by our software, and they'll have power distribution systems internally built by Rocket Lab. The customer also has the option within this contract to launch these satellites with us. Additionally, there's an option for us to support the ground operations for Globalstar as well. The strength of our competitive advantage and vertical integration really shines with this contract. It helps to reduce the cost of our own systems, but also allows us to monetize it.

The diversity of the revenue that you're seeing from us is a combination of that. Speaking of revenue generation and space systems, early in the fourth quarter, we signed a contract with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory to provide solar panels for shoebox-sized mobile robots as part of the agency's CADRE program. The CADRE acronym stands for Cooperative Autonomous Distributed Robotic Exploration. Much easier to just say CADRE. Which NASA's next generation of planet explorers that will work with a group to collect data from hard-to-reach places on the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere. They're going to be powered by our IMM solar cells, a superior type of space-grade solar cell we provide for the most innovative and far-reaching customers' missions.

The latest contract with JPL extends our long history through SolAero of powering NASA's satellites and spacecraft, including NASA's Ingenuity helicopter. We'll be using the same solar cells on CADRE as we did for the Ingenuity helicopter, Mars Helicopter, with the higher efficiency and lower mass combination in those cells being deemed a critical factor for enabling the mission's success. With that, let me turn it over to Adam Spice, our Chief Financial Officer.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Thanks, Pete. I will first review our third quarter 2022 results and then discuss our outlook for the fourth quarter. Third quarter 2022 revenue was $63.1 million, exceeding the high end of our guidance range of $60-$63 million, representing 14% sequential growth over the prior quarter. Our record revenue performance in the quarter was a result of three successful launches, as well as outperformance in our Space Systems segment led by our separation systems product line. Launch Services contributed $23 million, delivering 20% quarter-over-quarter growth and representing 36% of the total revenue in the quarter. Space Systems contributed $40.1 million, delivering 10% quarter-over-quarter growth and representing 64% of total revenue. Now turning to gross margin.

GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 13%, which was within our guidance range of 12%-15%. Non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 24%, which was within our guidance range of 22%-25%. Compared to the second quarter, where GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were 9% and 22% respectively, both GAAP and non-GAAP margins expanded in the quarter. In the launch services segment specifically, GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was -4% versus -12% in the second quarter. This expansion of gross margin was the result of higher average selling price per launch vehicle and lower production-related stock-based compensation expense.

In the Space Systems segment, GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 23% versus 20% in the second quarter. This expansion of gross margin was driven by a greater mix of higher-margin satellite component revenue, such as separation systems and reaction wheels delivered in the quarter. Total production headcount ended September 30th, 2022 at 797, up 16 heads from June 30th, 2022. In the face of increased production unit volumes, we continue to focus on constraining production headcount and identifying production efficiencies in pursuit of expanding gross margins across the business. Backlog declined $10.8 million during the third quarter to $520.6 million as revenue recognition, record revenue outpaced new bookings in the quarter.

Significant portions of our business involve projects that are many months or years in formation, and as a result, converting opportunities into new bookings is lumpy. Our pipeline of opportunities remains robust, and we are confident in our ability to build our backlog over the coming months and quarters. When we compare the third quarter 2022 revenue on a year-on-year basis, the continued strength, evolution, and diversity of our business is evident. Total revenue was up more than 1,000% or more than $57 million when compared to the third quarter of 2021. Acquisitions have contributed meaningfully in this year-on-year growth, reinforcing the strategic importance of our early investments into expanding our total addressable market. Specifically, revenue contribution from the investments.

Specifically, revenue contribution from the acquired ASI, PSC, and SolAero businesses added approximately $31 million of revenue in the third quarter of 2022. The remaining Rocket Lab product lines have experienced significant growth as well, having grown more than $27 million over the same time period, representing 514% growth year on year and contributed nearly $32 million in the third quarter of 2022. Now turning to gross margin. GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 13% compared to -230% in the third quarter of 2021. Non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 24% compared to -84% in the third quarter of 2021.

I'll be mentioning the impact of lower stock-based compensation on GAAP cost of goods sold and on GAAP operating expenses in the year-on-year compares, which was a function of the timing of our de-SPAC and the related one-time catch-up of recognition of stock-based compensation related to restricted stock unit vesting that had a performance condition related to achieving a liquidity event. The current quarter stock-based comp represents a more normalized run rate based stock-based comp level. In the launch services segment specifically, both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter of 2022 expanded significantly over the third quarter of 2021 as revenue growth led to greater absorption of production overhead as well as lower production-related stock-based compensation. In the space systems segment, both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter of 2022 declined versus third quarter of 2021.

The decline was driven by the acquisitions of ASI, PSC, and SolAero, which added significant revenue contribution but at lower gross margin profile versus our much smaller space systems business in the third quarter of 2021. Turning to operating expenses. GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter were $40.5 million, which was approximately $500,000 lower than our guidance range of $41 million-$43 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter were $27.4 million which was within our guidance range of $27 million-$29 million.

The growth in both GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses versus the second quarter was primarily driven by an increase in staffing, prototyping related to Neutron vehicle development, the Electron booster recovery initiatives, and Photon development projects, which were partially offset by the change of fair value of contingent consideration related to the PSC acquisition and deal-related amortization of intangibles. In R&D specifically, GAAP expenses decreased by $1.7 million or 9% in the third quarter, driven by lower stock-based compensation. Non-GAAP expenses were up $1.1 million or 10% quarter-over-quarter. We anticipate the trend of sequential growth in R&D to continue as we ramp investment in our Neutron launch vehicle and in Photon development in particular. Quarter ending R&D headcount was 348, representing an increase of 40 heads from June 30th, 2022.

In SG&A, GAAP expenses increased quarter-over-quarter $4 million or 21%, driven primarily by the earlier mentioned change in fair value of contingent consideration related to the PSC acquisition and deal-related amortization of intangibles. Non-GAAP SG&A expenses increased by $1.1 million or 8% quarter-over-quarter, mostly driven by increased staff costs as well as higher travel and marketing costs. Quarter-ending SG&A headcount was 196, representing an increase of 14 heads from June 30th, 2022. On a year-on-year perspective, both GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses increased as the company continues to invest heavily in Neutron development, broadening our space systems portfolio of products and services, and Electron recovery initiatives.

The company is executing and achieving milestones on numerous ambitious projects, and we look forward to these investments generating shareholder value for years to come. Year-over-year GAAP R&D increased $3.3 million, and non-GAAP R&D increased $4.3 million, driven by increased staffing and prototyping expenses for our Neutron and Photon development projects. Year-over-year, GAAP SG&A was down $2.7 million, driven by a decrease of stock-based compensation, partially offset by an increase in amortization expense related to the ASI, PSC, and SolAero acquisitions. Non-GAAP SG&A was up by $7.8 million, driven by higher public company costs, including audit, legal, and D&O insurance. Cash consumed from operating activities was $23 million in the third quarter compared to $38.3 million in the second quarter.

Sequential decline of $15.3 million was driven primarily by an improvement in working capital as well as lower net loss in the quarter. Cash consumed from investing activities was $188.7 million in the third quarter compared to $12.3 million in the second quarter. The sequential increase in cash consumed from investment activities was driven by the purchase of $179.9 million of marketable securities. Cash generated from financing activities was $2.1 million in the third quarter compared to cash consumption of $15 million in the second quarter.

The sequential increase of $17.1 million was driven by lower tax withholdings paid on behalf of employees for the vestings of restricted stock units during the third quarter, as well as a one-time contingent consideration payment in the second quarter related to the ASI acquisition. Overall, cash consumed in the third quarter was $210.3 million compared to $61.1 million in the second quarter. The ending balance of cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities was $515.5 million as of the end of the third quarter, representing a decrease of $31.2 million sequentially. With that, let's turn to our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2022.

We expect revenue in the fourth quarter to range between $51 million and $54 million, which reflects $34 million-$37 million of contribution from Space Systems and $17 million of contribution from Launch Services, which assumes three launches or one remaining launch in the quarter, with one of those three launches being the attempted booster recovery R&D mission last week that was only partially filled, resulting in lower absolute and per-launch contribution in the quarter. We expect fourth quarter GAAP gross margin to range between 5% and 7% and non-GAAP gross margin to range between 16% and 18%. These forecasted GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins reflect the anticipated lower absorption of overhead expense in the launch services segment, as well as a higher mix of lower margin products within our Space Systems segment.

We expect fourth quarter GAAP operating expenses to range between $39 million and $41 million and non-GAAP operating expenses to range between $28 million and $30 million. This quarter-on-quarter increase is driven primarily by increased R&D staff costs and prototype expense related to continued growth in our investments in the Neutron launch vehicle and development and scaling of our Photon product family. We expect fourth quarter GAAP and non-GAAP net interest expense to be $1 million. We expect fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA loss to range between $12 million and $16 million and basic shares outstanding to be approximately 474 million shares. With that, I'd like to open up the call to questions.

Murielle Baker
Communications Director, Rocket Lab

Thank you, Adam. During the Q&A portion of today's call, Rocket Lab will address a selection of questions from retail shareholders posted to our Q&A platform with Say Technologies. We'll begin by answering a selection of shareholder questions from amongst the top-voted questions on the platform. We'll pass over any questions which are likely to have been answered already throughout today's presentation, and we may group together questions that touch on the same themes. With that, the first question is from Daniel D., who asks: We are beginning to see major multinational corporations partner with space systems providers like Apple with Globalstar and General Dynamics with Iridium to provide more integrated services. Will Rocket Lab see a partnership similar to these in the future?

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Okay. Well, thanks, Murielle. Well, I mean, I guess the answer to this question is, you can already see that, you know, we're a strong partner with Globalstar building their constellation, which, you know, is ultimately supporting some of those names. The answer to the question is actually it's yes. We already are.

Murielle Baker
Communications Director, Rocket Lab

Thanks, Pete. Our next question is from Michael H., who asks: When will the company reach profitability?

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, I'll take that one, Murielle. You know, while most of the elements of our business have been ramping well, we're still in the early stages of our Neutron development and investment. Achieving and sustaining profitability can really only happen once we've got the majority of the R&D spending for Neutron in the rearview mirror. Yeah, I think that's the best way to look at it. You know, it's really, you know, we've got a couple of things converging. We have, you know, an increased and kind of sustained investment in Neutron. And of course, that will come to a crescendo as we approach the launch. You know, we still need the rest of the business to grow and perform to overcome that, the investment in Neutron in the short term.

Murielle Baker
Communications Director, Rocket Lab

Thank you, Adam. The next question is from Kevin R., who wants to know: Are there any more potential acquisitions Rocket Lab is considering in the near term?

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, I can take that one as well, Murielle. Unfortunately, we can't speak to any specific acquisition opportunities, you know, but we continue to see strategic inorganic growth opportunities in our markets. There are no deals currently in advanced stage of discussion. You know, we're very happy with the four strategic acquisitions we've done, and we do believe there are deals to be done, both large and small, that fit well within our end-to-end space solutions vision.

Murielle Baker
Communications Director, Rocket Lab

Our next question then is from Carter M., who asks: Does Rocket Lab foresee any large military contracts in the near or distant future?

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, I can take that one, Murielle. I mean, there's some pretty significant defense contracts we can't really discuss that we're actively working on. As you can imagine, a lot of these defense contracts are very long lead time, you know, processes. Generally, though, I can say we're seeing a really, you know, an increased engagement from strategic DoD program opportunities that we think we can bring, you know, a new level of stability and scale from our business to both launch and on the space system side.

Murielle Baker
Communications Director, Rocket Lab

Thanks, Peter. I'm going to summarize now some of the questions we've had for demand for launch services. I'll put it forward as in this question here. What are the impacts on Electron launch cadence? Is it customer readiness, level of demand, or any other factor that you might like to comment on?

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, I can take a swing at this. I mean, I often compare a dedicated launch vehicle to, like, the difference between an Uber service and a bus. It's the analogy is stronger than you think in the fact that on an Uber service, when you call it, that's when you call it, and it arrives on your timescale. That's kind of the same with the dedicated small launches, is the value that we offer our customers, or one of the values, is they can call us when and we meet their time frames. Now, the challenge for us is always if they're not ready on time, you know, we're kind of the Uber left outside the restaurant waiting for someone to come outside.

You know, this year I think we've done a really good job, certainly way better than previous years, at managing that by, you know, processing multiple customers at once. If one customer has an issue during either an integration or processing or even as they're getting their satellite prepared, we can kind of jump in front with another one. It, you know, we joke here, it's literally we call it manifest whack-a-mole, where you know, you continually fighting to keep the launch cadence. The thing that affects our launch cadence the most is in fact customer readiness less so than demand.

When a customer slips, it's not that like they go away, they just slip into a different quarter or slip into, you know, some cases, a different year. We're seeing, you know, continued growth and demand, which is pleasing to see. If we look at, you know, 2023 and 2024, we can see that, you know, we have line of sight to our model closing. So that's all good. I mean, yeah, customer readiness is the one thing that always is challenging to manage.

Murielle Baker
Communications Director, Rocket Lab

Thanks, Pete. Maybe another one for you. We've had several questions about Electron reusability from shareholders. The main points coming through have been, what is the progress towards Electron recoverability, and to what extent will reusability drive down launch costs? Finally, how does this process inform and help guide the design of Neutron?

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Thanks, Murielle. I guess the question that most people will be asking is what happened on the last launch? You know, what we can say is that during re-entry, we need a telemetry lock with the vehicle so we can determine, you know, where it is in space because it's not responsible to put a helicopter in a zone where there's potentially a re-entering rocket. Very normal for us to lose that telemetry lock through the re-entry process because of the plasma and, you know, the heat and the barbecue roll that we put the stage in.

On this occasion, we didn't regain the, you know, the lock in a time that was sufficient for us to, you know, put the helicopter into an area to be able to successfully catch it. You know, that was a safety call that we made. We have very strict flight rules around that and, you know, that was ultimately the call we made. You know, we still fished it out of the ocean. You know, we continue to be very, you know, very, very confident that we're gonna get there with this recoverability.

It's important to point out that, you know, our other friends down the road took many attempts to successfully nail this. That's probably the question on most people's mind, but more kind of directly to answer the questions that you had. The majority of the cost of the rocket is in the first stage. If you can get that first stage back in a good condition and service it without having to rebuild it completely, then it is a very strong performance driver from a margins and cost perspective. That's all goodness.

You know, with respect to Neutron, I mean, man, I wouldn't be wanting to develop a reusable rocket without having all of this knowledge and experience of re-entering launch vehicles and controlling them and all of those things that comes along. Like, it is technically a very, very challenging thing to do. but it's, you know, we're in really the best position possible, given all the experience that we're learning from Neutron and from Electron, sorry. It's directly applicable to Neutron and making sure that Neutron out of the gate is very successful from a reusability standpoint.

Murielle Baker
Communications Director, Rocket Lab

Thanks, Pete. We've also had several questions about Rocket Lab's performance overall, which I'll summarize by asking, how would you say Rocket Lab compares to other commercial space companies, particularly in small launch, but also across end-to-end space solutions?

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, I'll take a first pass at this one, Murielle. Yeah, I think we've distinguished ourselves in a few important ways. You know, clearly, launch heritage is the most obvious. You know, as we noted earlier, we successfully launched more times this year so far than all other small orbital launch players combined, and we did this while establishing our leadership in Responsive Space, launching twice within 15 days. I think those kind of accomplishments kind of speak for themselves and how we kind of view ourselves as being very separate and kind of unique with regards to the rest of the small launch group. You know, additionally, we think there was a window for paying customers to take a bet on a new small launch provider, but I feel like that window's really closed.

It feels like we're now in a period where new launch providers are gonna have to self-fund establishing a launcher with sufficient flight heritage for customers to be able to take risk. I think that really goes to kind of future competition and even the people who have kind of already kind of made it through the first round, if you will. There's a lot of work to do, and you have to kind of look at what the customer incentives are here, given kind of the state of development of various players, including ourselves.

Related with regard to the end-to-end space play, you know, we were aggressive in acquiring, you know, on-orbit heritage with our four acquisitions, and we're certainly leveraging that that heritage into into larger and larger end-to-end opportunities, you know, very much like the the MDA Globalstar program that we've talked a lot about. Again, I think there's very clear and obvious ways that we differentiate ourselves from the crowd, and, you know, we're very comfortable with the strategy and the execution against that so far.

Murielle Baker
Communications Director, Rocket Lab

Thank you, Adam. With that, we'll be moving on now from shareholder questions. Thank you to everyone for your thoughtful engagement from our shareholders. We will open up the line now to questions from the analysts on the call. Over to you, operator.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the live Q&A. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If for any reason you would like to remove that question, please press star followed by two. Again, to ask a question, that's star one. As a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking your question. We will pause here briefly as questions are registered. Our first question comes from the line of Matt Akers with Wells Fargo. Matt, your line is now open.

Matt Akers
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo

Yeah. Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for the question. I wonder if you could touch on a little bit more detail on the Q4 guidance for launch revenue. I think you mentioned why it was a little bit lower than what you might expect for three launches, but if you could go into some more detail there and then how we should sort of think about ASP, you know, does that still sort of ramp up as we get into next year? Thanks.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, sure, Matt. I'll take that question, and Peter can chime in if he'd view it differently. Within the Q4 guide, obviously, the biggest impact is having one of our customers, you know, push their scheduled launch from Q4 into next year. You know, it's kind of one of those things that you don't get a lot of notice from the customer sometimes on these things, so that was kind of a late-breaking change that's more of a soft guide for Q4 on the Launch Services side of things. The other thing is we had our recovery launch that we did last week, which, you know, it was really an R&D platform. We kind of look at it as almost like sub-scale R&D.

We take a partially filled rocket so that, you know, that otherwise we could fill if we weren't so schedule-driven to make sure that we get a certain number of kind of attempted recoveries in place. I think those were kind of really the primary movers. That'll look like, you know, when you look at the revenue contribution from launch in Q4, you know, you might look like, well, the average selling price is going down to a much lower number, but it's really not because that recovery rideshare again was really more of an R&D mission. As we look forward, you know, into 2023 and beyond, we actually see a pretty firm pricing environment for our product. We're not seeing any big discounts.

I mean, occasionally we'll do some, you know, material discounts when customers are signing up for large bulk buys, as is the case with pretty much any other business. But right now we're feeling pretty good about where our pricing is, and you know, again, over the last several years, we've actually seen price increases. Yeah. I don't know if that answers your question or, Pete, if you have a different view.

Matt Akers
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo

No, that.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

No, I.

Matt Akers
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo

That answers my question. Sorry, go ahead.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

No, Matt, I was just violently agreeing with Adam.

Matt Akers
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo

Got it. Okay. No, thanks. That's helpful. Then, you know, I guess if you could talk just, you know, how are you thinking about next year? I don't know if you can give any help in terms of how we should think about growth at kind of the two different segments, kind of off of the Q4 runway, if there's any early thoughts on that.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah. I'll take a first pass at that as well. You know, we're looking at what we think will be actually a pretty impressive growth year for on the Electron launch cadence. You know, this year with the manifest that we just kind of closed out or, you know, we have again that one more launch before we close out the year at 10 launches, we think there's significant growth. You know, we'd peg the estimated launches for next year at around 14, so about 40% growth year-on-year. Again, with fairly firm, I would say, you know, pricing. We're still gonna have a few R&D efforts around booster recovery.

Overall, kind of if you wanna think about the pricing on average, you know, kind of when that's all factored in of somewhere around $7 million-$7.5 million per launch. Again, some will be higher, some will be lower, particularly on the R&D booster recovery side of things. Yeah. Again, we're looking at good growth year-over-year for the launch business. When we look at the space systems business, you know, we really have five, you know, if you said verticals, if you will, within space systems. We see, you know, solid growth from four of the five areas.

If you think it's a reminder for those who aren't as familiar, the areas would be, you know, satellite design services, satellite manufacturing, satellite components. We have the on-orbit services management and data services portion of the business. Really the only part within our mix right now that's looking to be a bit more challenged is on the solar side of the business. That is primarily a function of the fact that revenue recognition around internal programs. If we kind of step back and look at the strategic rationale for buying a business like SolAero is particularly to make sure that we had, you know, as complete control as we can manage of our supply chain.

Very strategic from that perspective. As we take that merchant capacity at SolAero, and we direct it towards internal programs like the MDA Globalstar program, for example, you end up having delays in revenue recognition. As, for example, the products that are coming out of SolAero start to ship, ultimately, with the completed satellites, we'll have that delayed revenue recognition on the at that time. It's kind of a near-term hit to revenue as you get, you kind of push that revenue recognition out. In our case, you know, we'll start shipping, you know, those satellites in 2024.

It caused a bit of a pause to the business in 2023 for that particular product line, again, until we get to revenue recognition as we ship the satellites in, you know, in a meaningful way in 2024. As I said, the rest of the business, if you look at the other three acquired businesses from Sinclair to SolAero, PSC, and ASI, we're seeing, you know, strong growth across those acquisitions. Our organic Space Systems business as far as satellite design and manufacturing, that's growing as well.

We're really dealing with a bit of a, you know, a challenge just because such a large portion of our Space Systems revenue is coming from that SolAero piece, which again, is being affected by the kind of revenue recognition or ASC 606 treatment.

Matt Akers
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo

Got it. That's helpful. Yeah. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Deuschle with Credit Suisse. Scott, your line is now open.

Scott Deuschle
VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hey, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Peter, one of your peers in the launch industry is. They're building a oxygen-rich closed cycle engine as well, and I think it's fair to say it's been a bit of a challenge for them. Now I recognize you guys have a great track record for execution.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Right.

Scott Deuschle
VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Can you maybe just talk a bit about what makes you guys comfortable with the development timeline you've laid out there for the team on Archimedes, and how you would give us some comfort about the risk of, you know, cost overruns or schedule slippage on that engine architecture? Thank you.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Yeah. Hey, Scott. It's a great question. I guess the fundamental difference is generally the reason you go to an ox-rich or a closed cycle is for performance. You're trying to extract the maximum amount of ISP out of a particular engine. What that means is you end up with, you know, thrust or chamber pressures in many thousands of PSI, and that's always a good kind of way to determine like how stressed is an engine. Our rationale for going to the ox-rich cycle was not because we're trying to squeeze out, you know, huge amounts of ISP and, you know, really push chamber pressures. In fact, you know, our chamber pressures are down at gas generator chamber pressures at sort of 1,500, 2,000 PSI, which is, you know, low.

Our rationale for going to the cycle was from a reusability standpoint. You know, ultimately, you know, that cycle provides the best probability of reusability. It's a long-winded way of saying we're not trying to push the cycle. Like generally you go to that cycle because you need the performance. We're not going to that cycle because we need the performance, and we're not trying to extract the performance. You basically have, you know, an engine that is very cold and not running up against the limits.

That gives us a lot of confidence in the development timeline because, for example, you know, a pre-burner pressure in some of our peers' engines run at 11,000 PSI, or 8,000-11,000 PSI, and we're just down at a few thousand PSI. What that ultimately means is the temperatures of the turbines, which are the things that cause you the grief, are very low, which means we don't need you know, exotic materials. Ultimately the turbine tips, stresses, and strains are very low as well.

It's really taking an engine that normally someone chooses for performance and de-rating it right down to you know for power purposes, which is ultimately reliability. We don't. A rocket engine is a rocket engine. There's always development challenges along the way. When the team looks at what turbine speeds and pressures and temperatures that we need to achieve at the cycle, they're really boring, which is what we said we wanted to do was make a very boring engine. I wouldn't confuse like the cycle with the complexity. Yeah.

Scott Deuschle
VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. That makes a lot of sense. Thank you. Adam, you mentioned that some larger potential deals are maybe taking longer to close. Can you just talk a bit more about that? Is that the slowing of the sales cycle, is that more on the commercial side, or is it more from government customers? Thank you.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah. I would say it's a little bit of both. I think it's also a function of the fact that we're not chasing kind of, you know, onesie, twosie small deals anymore. We're chasing needle-moving opportunities that just by definition are more complex. You know, it's taking more, you know, kind of a more holistic effort across the product lines in the company. It's, you know, again, all of this is kind of reinforcing the strategy, you know, of being an end-to-end player and having more to bring to the table, and going after bigger and bigger game.

In this case, I think, you know, we've got, you know, a really good line of sight into into that game that I think we're gonna catch. It's just taking a little bit longer. You know, I don't think it's, you know, these things are taking, you know, I would say, you know, many quarters longer. In some cases they're taking a little bit longer. Again, our confidence level is very high that we're gonna close on some of these bigger material deals. Again, just complexity size is really. It's kind of a good thing in this case, but it does take a little bit longer than kind of one-off, smaller kind of you know, kind of individual deals.

Scott Deuschle
VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Got it. Thanks guys. Congratulations on the progress.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Erik Rasmussen with Stifel. Erik, your line is now open.

Erik Rasmussen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. I just wanted to real quick on the pricing. It seemed like there was a little bit of pressure this quarter because of the R&D, but you're still thinking, you know, you're in the $7 million-$7.5 million for next year. How is pricing beyond if we sort of exclude those R&D programs? Where is pricing today? Is it higher on average than what we're seeing currently and what we've seen throughout 2022?

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

No, still the kind of the average sticker price or kind of your basic mission is still running around $7.5 million. Again, some higher, some lower. We're not, you know, when we're pricing out in time, we've got our pricing table that assumes a certain level of increases per year. You know, part of that is just, you know, to deal with the inflationary pressures that we're all dealing with. Again, we're not really seeing a lot of dramatic pressure on the pricing side. I think we, you know, customers realize, you know, the cost and the value of small dedicated launch, and they don't really compare us to things like Rideshare, you know, on an apples-to-apples basis because it's really not a good apples-to-apples comparison.

Again, pricing is holding up fine.

Erik Rasmussen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Okay. On margins, you know, coming down next quarter, how do you know, just trying to get a sense of where the pressure's coming from. Is it still SolAero? Is it something else? How should we be thinking about margins for next year, or just directionally, you know, because we've seen a step down here and we've seen some pressure throughout the year. Should we still be looking at SolAero as potentially having, you know, 30% margins at some point, and are we still on track for that?

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah. I'll take those in a couple different pieces. On the overall margin directionality. With on the launch side, whenever you have less revenue contribution from launch, then you have less production overhead absorption, right? The fact that we have, you know, three launches but one of them is heavily subsidized R&D, you know, it just doesn't give you as much air cover for that. I think, you know, what we saw in our Q3 results is, you know, the positive trend of increasing gross margin when we have full, you know, three full price launches. You know, one launch per month, you know, is kind of on the undiscounted normal launches. That gets us on our path with all the cost reduction activities that we have going on for Electron margin improvement.

Really, again, give us confidence that we're pointed in the right direction. You know, on the launch side, I think that, you know, again, it's all about having, you know, at least one launch per month in the quarter. When you've got anything less than that or a subsidized kind of launch in the quarter, that kind of starts to eat into that in a meaningful way. We're just kind of getting underway now for some meaningful margin improvement projects on Electron specifically, as we've now gotten that product stabilized and we're looking to really turn the crank on profitability. When you think about the Space Systems margins and side of things, you know, it's kind of a yin and yang here. You have with...

I mentioned earlier, when Matt asked the question about growth in 2022 and, you know, SolAero being impacted by revenue recognition for internal programs that they would not have been impacted by, you know, if they were just selling out into the broad merchant market. That's a bit of a, again, a bit of a blessing and curse because, you know, we'll have less, you know, kind of relative contribution from SolAero in at least, you know, for the majority of 2023 as they continue to ship into these internal programs and we don't get to recognize the revenue. That means that the rest of Space Systems will contribute more, relatively speaking, and that should be helpful to the overall margins for Space Systems.

I think when you look at SolAero's gross margins in isolation, you know, we've done a lot of work with that team. We think there's great opportunity to pull those gross margins up very much in line with what we'd originally been talking about getting to 30%. I think there's just some distortions that are happening in the near- to intermediate-term because of the internal programs. You know, you won't really necessarily see all of that margin improvement come through in a more visible way. Again, overall for Space Systems, because of that mix that we talked about and the fact that the rest of our Space Systems products have very high gross margins, we think overall that should be a positive uplift to Space Systems margins as we progress forward.

Erik Rasmussen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Suji Desilva with Roth Capital. Suji, your line is now open.

Suji Desilva
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, ROTH Capital Partners

Hi, Peter. Hi, Adam. On the launch count guidance for 2023, the 14, what's the realistic expectation for how many of those might be out of Virginia? Is it kind of one a quarter early on? I know you said one's gonna come on early in 2023, but would that progress towards sort of one a month over time? Pete, do you want to take that?

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

I mean, that's a good question. I'd have to actually pull up the manifest and see where they're kind of spaced throughout the year. You know, look, getting a couple away early in the year is helpful. I would kind of imagine them, you know, fairly sporadically through the year. Because we haven't had the range operational, you know, for a while, we've been kind of cautious in what we book for, you know, for that site.

I would say that you'll sort of see them sporadically through the year and then perhaps start to increase nearer the end of the year. You know, just from the natural life cycle of a launch contract.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Suji, I mean, right now, when we look at our manifest, we would estimate somewhere between four and six launches of the 14 would come out of LC-2 in Wallops.

Suji Desilva
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, ROTH Capital Partners

Great. Then Adam, without going through a full accounting discourse on revenue recognition for these projects, you know, kind of maybe what's going in and what's kind of coming out, kind of recognition for the Globalstar MDA agreement. I know you're selling certain products in. Is it recognized when satellites are fully manufactured? Just give us kind of a thumbnail the best you can understand.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah. You'd have to have a lot more time than is allocated on this call. We can certainly set some time aside to talk about it offline because the accounting treatment on ASC 606 gets very complicated. The way you can think about it is there is a notable amount of revenue that gets realized as you're building up the program, but it's kind of more materials and inventory-driven changes. You realize the bulk of the revenue from these programs, whether it's, you know, the MDA Globalstar one, that's obviously a very large one, but other contracts that we have, like ESCAPADE, is when you actually ship the hardware. When we actually ship the satellite, that's when we get to recognize the majority of the revenue.

I mean, a lot of what that really says is that, you know, as we disclose all of these really exciting satellite projects that we're working on that will be making meaningful progress in 2023 and ultimately ship in volume in 2024, that really kind of sets the stage well for 2024 when we'll have, you know, a lot of, you know, sort of spring-loaded revenue as a result of not being able to recognize that kind of ratably over time. You know, if you kind of think about the

I can't give you a percentage of the total contract value that gets recognized in kind of 2023 versus 2024, but I think roughly speaking, probably, you know, probably 80% of the revenue, for example, that Globalstar MDA contract, you know, won't be recognized until, you know, until 2024. Probably 20% in 2023 and the remainder of it in 2024.

Suji Desilva
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, ROTH Capital Partners

Very helpful, Adam. Thank you.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Kristine, your line is now open.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director and Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Thanks. Hey, Peter. Hey, Adam. You're now at a launch cadence of about one per month for Electron, and you've already done 30 launches so far. When do you anticipate to record positive gross margin in launch? Should this be around unit 35, unit 40? Some sort of unit guidance would be helpful. You know, Adam, you mentioned that pricing's getting better. We saw SpaceX raise prices this year. Is that an opportunity for you to potentially get to that positive gross margin sooner?

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

I'll take the first part of that question. I'll let Pete talk to the longer-term pricing, leverage and dynamics. Obviously we're at a positive gross margin now on a non-GAAP basis, but you're right, it's negative on a GAAP basis. You know, again, a lot of good things happen when we're launching, you know, more than once per month. GAAP profitability, you know, that's probably, you know, when we get maybe our launch cadence up to, I'd call it five, probably, I'd say a solid four fully priced launches per quarter is probably where we kind of move into that positive GAAP gross margin level.

You know, the margins that we've been targeting all along have really been, when we say 50% gross margin for our launch business, it's really a non-GAAP figure. So again, I think the GAAP numbers get confused by a lot of, you know, a lot of non-cash items, you know, around amortization and so forth, depreciation charges. It does take a little bit more of a step up and a regular cadence of, let's call it, you know, four fully priced launches per quarter would get us into that solid GAAP gross margin profitability. Pete, I don't know if you want to speak to the pricing with regards to SpaceX increasing their pricing recently.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, yeah. Look, I think everybody feels the pressures of supply chain and the increase in cost. Kind of to Adam's point, you know, Electron's pricing has done nothing but go up since we first started flying. You know, if you look forward at, you know, future pricing, it's certainly more reflective of that environment. Yeah, like I said, like I think Adam said in other questions, we don't see the pricing increasing anytime soon.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director and Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Thanks. Maybe Peter, following up on retrieval, I mean, after last week's helicopter retrieval attempt, you explained that the chances for success are much smaller than those for failure because of many complex factors must perfectly align. I just wanna unpack this a little bit. How are you thinking about the success rate of each retrieval attempt then going forward? Has last week's attempt changed how you're thinking at all on the helicopter approach?

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

That's a good question. Look, I mean, I think it's important not to throw the baby out with the bathwater here. I mean, I don't know how many, seven or eight attempts I think it took SpaceX. I could be wrong on that number. You know, this is their second proper go at it. We fundamentally caught it on the first attempt. I think, you know, it is an R&D program. There's stuff we're gonna learn. Yeah, it's complex. That's like, if it was easy, then everybody would be building rockets, right? You have to endure the pain of getting through the R&D, you know, portion to operationalize it.

What I would say, I think, you know, what started off as something that we weren't even sure we can do is something now that around the business is just absolutely standard. You know, there's reusable vehicles running down the production line. To be honest with you, everybody kind of, you know, falsely expected that we would just catch this one and, you know, there was camps pulled up for all ready to receive it and refurbish it. The reality is, you know, we're still learning stuff. You know, it's still.

This is catch number two. We've got a long way to go yet before, you know, we would abandon it for whatever reason. No. I'm happy with where we're at. Would've been nice to catch it, but you know, we learned a lot.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director and Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. I mean, I'd love to see you guys catch that too. Maybe if I could do one more. You know, from the recovered Electron engines from the ocean that you've been recovering, how's been the wear and tear versus what you expected? And then considering the cost of refurbishing those wet engines, how does that track versus expected cost savings when you're able to successfully recover a dry one?

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, that's a great question. Actually, way better than we thought. It always amazes me when we pull stuff out of the ocean, you know, a flight computer, for example, and it literally looks like it's got barnacles on it. It's all fuzzy and horrible. You plug it in and it just fires up. You know, not that we'd ever fly a computer that's got a barnacle on the side of it. My point being is that, you know, the system is designed to be incredibly reliable from day one. You know, by nature, it means that the systems have seemed to be incredibly robust to very off-nominal environments and conditions.

You know, the engine that was pulled and re-serviced, you know, there was nothing in that engine that anybody was kind of surprised or frightened at. It was in remarkably, you know, good shape. I think part of it is getting over the fact that it actually got dunked in the sea rather than anything, you know, anything actually, you know, technically wrong with it. Yeah. That's what gives us, you know, confidence in the pursuit of this for Electron is that the condition and the serviceability that we've been finding stuff has been really good. That also feeds, you know, directly into, you know, the Neutron. The Neutron team is as well.

When we bring Neutron to market, there's not gonna be a, you know, a massive learning curve there, to achieve what we need to achieve. Literally, you know, almost purposefully, the recovery team sits in the same building as the Neutron team. You know, they're all sharing each other's experiences, and we see the design of Neutron, you know, being tweaked real time with everything we learn from Electron.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director and Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks, Peter.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Austin Moeller with Canaccord. Austin, your line is now open.

Austin Moeller
Senior Aerospace and Defense Technology Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Hi. Good afternoon, Peter and Adam.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Hey, Austin.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director and Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Hey, Austin.

Austin Moeller
Senior Aerospace and Defense Technology Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Just my first question here, if we think about the launch recovery, is there anything we can do on the vehicle itself in terms of an antenna to improve the connection in the event of, just given the telemetry losses? I mean, I know like SpaceX has built some redundancy around that, and I was just wondering what your thoughts would be just given your, you need the helicopter, just given the mass and the mass requirements.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Yeah. It's quite. You know, every re-entry is a little bit different. So, you know, on a SpaceX re-entry, they obviously do a an entry burn, which slows their velocity through the wall, which is the most intensive part of the re-entry profile. For us, we don't do any of that. We bring it in straight through. So we have quite the buildup of thermal energy at the base that we manage and plasma around the launch vehicle. So you find, you know, from an orbital re-entry standpoint, there's always a communications blackout. You know, once your vehicle is enveloped in plasma, there's very little any antenna can do to penetrate that kind of RF.

We do have a slightly different entry environment or quite a significantly different environment to, you know, to others in that front. Obviously, we're not going to, you know, we're gonna take lessons from this and try and improve what, you know, improve that. I mean, we had historically regain length pretty rapidly on previous launches. You know, this one, unfortunately, we didn't. We'll obviously get to the bottom of why that didn't occur. I'll just point out it is a very non-trivial environment and challenging environment that's quite different to, you know, to others that we have to deal with on a re-entry.

Austin Moeller
Senior Aerospace and Defense Technology Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Right. I guess from that perspective, it's just to be expected that kind of like during the Apollo program, they anticipated there would be a communications blackout on the ballistic return.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Correct. It's just not the same energy, of course, for re-entry or energy over time. Probably similar energies, but just not over the time. It's like I say, it's fully expected during that high plasma environment.

Austin Moeller
Senior Aerospace and Defense Technology Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

This might be a question for Adam. Where are we at in terms of the existing contracts within SolAero, and those progressively being replaced by newer contracts that are working towards higher margins? Where are we at in your progress on the integration of that company?

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

I would say that we continue to be on track to kinda, you know, that margin target that we'd set of 30% within 2 years of the deal close. We've got some time. We are making progress towards it on a quarterly basis. I would say as far as churning through the old contracts, you know, as we kind of obviously, you know, burn through backlog, we're getting there. But I would say too that there's, you know, there was a non-trivial amount of business that was still to be worked through, and some of it came at relatively low gross margin, albeit reasonable kind of standard margin.

You kinda think about, you know, think about the kind of a more of a classic, kind of, semiconductor manufacturing environment. You know, covering your fixed costs are obviously important to a certain extent. You have to look at that in the context of how you choose to take certain business. Because you know, you have a lot of, kind of, just recurring, kind of, fixed costs that flow through the business. I think that, you know, again, nothing is deterring us from the 30%. I think that, again, we're making progress towards it. I think it's not just something too where you have to burn through the old contracts because the old contracts can deliver higher gross margin if you can affect changes in your production overheads.

We're looking at everything that we can do to not only kind of bring in new contracts at higher gross margins, but also affect what ultimately we can deliver on the existing backlog as we reduce our overhead costs. Again, we're attacking this from every angle, and we're making progress. Again, I'm confident with the numbers that we put out there. I don't think there's any reason to shy away from those.

Austin Moeller
Senior Aerospace and Defense Technology Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Okay, fantastic. Well, thanks for filling me in.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America. Ron, your line is now open.

Andre Madrid
Equity Research Associate, Bank of America

Hey, everyone. You actually have Andre Madrid on for Ron today. Quick question. Looking at the selection of the Stennis Space Center, how do you see that having an impact on CapEx spend? And then with that being said, what are you guys kind of projecting in terms of CapEx moving forward? What kind of rate? I'll take the first one, Adam.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, go ahead.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

You talk about the.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Go ahead.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Sorry. On kind of the reduction of CapEx spend that Stennis has enabled us, it's pretty significant, right? I mean, if you look at the infrastructure that's there, it's massive. It really, you know, as we kind of mentioned, helps us accelerate the kind of program from being, you know, building just an absolute bare bones, you know, engine test stand through to moving into something that is really quite significant from day one, which helps accelerate us through the early but also the mid and longer points of the program. You know, really significant piece of infrastructure that obviously we didn't have to CapEx.

From that perspective, a huge win. I'll throw it over to you, Adam, to talk about overall CapEx and rate.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah. I mean, overall CapEx is you know, kind of been staying in a certain range. Let's call it like, you know, I think this quarter was a little under $10 million in the quarter. I think you're gonna see that CapEx continue to step up as we continue to put you know, infrastructure in place for Neutron. I think on our Space Systems business, we're pretty much there as far as infrastructure required to execute on our plan. There'll be a little bit of you know, additions here and there. On Neutron, we're still very much in the early phases of getting that infrastructure put in place.

You know, I think you'll start to see that roughly kind of $10 million per quarter CapEx number, you know, kind of sequentially increase, and probably ends up, you know, I'd say, you know, peaking at, you know, in the kind of $25 million-ish per quarter rate. It'll take a few quarters to get there, and then it'll start to tail off. You know, when we talked about the Neutron program, you know, initially, we said it was a $200 million-$250 million program, split between, you know, if you think about the prototyping and personnel costs as well as CapEx. CapEx we anticipated to be kind of in the $80 million-ish for CapEx for the program, with the remainder falling into, you know, personnel and prototyping.

Yeah, the mix on a program like this is always gonna be hard to pin down exactly. I would say right now we're probably trending a little bit more towards higher CapEx and maybe a little bit less on, you know, prototyping and personnel side of things. Again, I think that, you know, in order for us to hit our, you know, 2024 first flight of Neutron, you know, we'll have to have a pretty significant portion of that infrastructure in place as we exit 2023. I'd expect, you know, or I would say exit 2023, but certainly before the middle of 2024, you'll see kind of a gradual increase in that CapEx from our roughly $10 million per quarter rate.

At some point we'll peak, you know, kind of in that kinda mid-twenties and then we'll be pretty much kind of in place. I don't know if that kinda helps you dial in your model at all, but that's kind of roughly what we're looking at today.

Andre Madrid
Equity Research Associate, Bank of America

Yeah. No, definitely that's very helpful. Do you think in any way this, the selection of standards could actually maybe accelerate so that there could be a launch earlier than expected? Are you keeping your timeline kind of at the same as it was before?

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, that's definitely a Pete question.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Man, you know what I mean? It's already an aggressive timeline. No, I'm not beginning to knock time off that at this stage. Certainly it's an accelerator in the short, but more impactfully it's an accelerator in medium to long term. You know, we'll hold to our dates at this point.

Andre Madrid
Equity Research Associate, Bank of America

All right. That's helpful. That's all I have. Thanks, guys.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Thanks again.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the lineup. Cai von Rumohr with Cowen. Cai, your line is now open.

Cai von Rumohr
Managing Director and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst, Cowen

Yes. Thanks so much. I know it's been a long call, I'll keep it to one. You mentioned, you know, more launch recovery attempts in 2024. How many more and why the lower price? I mean, I can understand why the costs would be higher, but why the lower price? And maybe if you can give us kind of a range of where the price would be for one of those R&D launches. Thanks.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, I'll take a first pass at that, at Peter, as far as you know, the cost and the pricing side of things. Cai, you can think of this as being, you know, it's much more important for us to get the catch attempt in hand. What we do is we set the R&D team, say, "Hey, you're gonna be doing a recovery at this point in time, so get, you know, drive all your plans around that." Then we basically try to subsidize the cost of that recovery mission with whatever payloads will fit into that defined time scale, right?

It's much more important for us to get the mission off, even if we sell the rocket half full, which is kind of a decent proxy kind of for what we've been doing for these ride shares. If you think about, you know, a $7.5 million mission, you know, we've been selling roughly half the capacity. The reason why we can't or haven't done more is 'cause we've chosen to stick to a recovery schedule and maximize the revenue on that recovery flight. You know, you're right, there's nothing that would prevent us from basically filling up that and getting full revenue for that other than the fact it would result in a delay in our R&D process for establishing the recoverability. It's just a trade that we make.

We take, you know.

Cai von Rumohr
Managing Director and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst, Cowen

Got it.

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

less revenue cover to get more frequent recovery launches in place.

Cai von Rumohr
Managing Director and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst, Cowen

How many more of these R&D launches are you gonna take? I mean, just until you get it right, or how should we think about that?

Adam Spice
CFO, Rocket Lab

Yeah. Pete, do you wanna take that?

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Yeah, I mean it. Yeah, sorry. Sorry, I was mashing my mute button. So on these R&D launches, like it kind of Adam Spice pointed out, we're unfairly optimizing them for our schedule. I think, you know, we had to, with some degree of a certainty to be able to provide dates to the team to be able to meet. Now, the development of the recovery system is slowed, you know, right down. I mean, obviously some tweaks we need to make, but it's not like where we were a year ago where we were, you know, fundamentally making block changes to the vehicle. Now there's just a standard vehicle running down the production line recovery vehicle.

It's kind of a long-winded way, Cai, of saying that we don't anticipate really to be doing too many more of these kind of subsidized R&D missions at this point. We're pretty much ready to start moving into this as just a standard thing.

Cai von Rumohr
Managing Director and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst, Cowen

Excellent. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. There are currently no further questions in queue. Again, as a reminder to submit for a question, that's star one on your telephone keypad. There are currently no further questions in queue, so I will pass the conference back over to Peter for any additional or closing remarks.

Peter Beck
Founder, President, and CEO, Rocket Lab

Okay. Thank you everybody for your interest in Rocket Lab and those who have participated in today's call. Adam and I will be speaking at these upcoming conferences and look forward to the opportunity to share more exciting news and updates at the Stifel Midwest Growth Conference on November 10th and the Deutsche Bank Global Space Summit on the same day. Then Roth 11th Annual Technology Event on November 16th. Thanks again, and we look forward to speaking with you all again soon about the exciting progress we've made in-

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